93L still disorganized; extreme heat wave hits the Middle East and Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

The amount and intensity of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Jamaica has increased over the past 24 hours, but the storm remains very disorganized and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. The storm has not brought heavy rains to Haiti, fortunately, but heavy rains are expected today across Jamaica, where flash flood warnings have been posted. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and limited upper-level outflow. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground station nearest to the storm (Kingston) are beginning to fall, as are pressures at buoy 42057 a few hundred miles west of the storm, a sign that 93L is more organized than yesterday. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, and there is less dry air to the storm's southwest than there was yesterday. There is an upper-level high pressure system a few hundred miles west of 93L, and the clockwise flow air around this high is bringing upper-level winds out of the northwest of about 10 knots over 93L, contributing to the 10 knots of wind shear observed in this morning's wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. Last night's pass of the ASCAT satellite showed little in the way of a wind shift associated with 93L, though the pass did not completely capture the storm. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Friday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
I expect that by tomorrow, 93L should be closer to being directly underneath the upper level high pressure system to its west, which would act to lower wind shear and provide more favorable upper-level outflow. NHC is giving 93L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Friday afternoon, with Friday night or Saturday morning more likely. Interaction with land will be a problem for 93L, as it will likely move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba on Saturday. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica and eastern Cuba today through Friday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and central Cuba Friday through Saturday, and western Cuba, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday and Sunday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and towards the Texas or Mexican coast south of Texas. This is the solution of the NOGAPS, ECMWF, and Canadian models. A likely landfall location is impossible to speculate on reliably at this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast given the current uncertainty in its development. A key factor will be how far north the center of 93L eventually consolidates at.

Intensity forecast for 93L
The amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is highly uncertain. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf. The GFS model predicts that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. However, the ECMWF model keeps high shear entrenched over the Gulf of Mexico. I give 93L a 50% chance of eventually becoming Tropical Storm Alex, but the odds of it eventually becoming a hurricane have lessened to 10%. None of the computer models is calling for 93L to become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Dust storm over Iraq on June 23, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Extreme heat wave sets all-time high temperature records in Africa and Middle East
A withering heat wave of unprecedented intensity and areal covered has smashed all-time high temperatures in five nations in the Middle East and Africa over the past week. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Chad, Kuwait, and Niger all set new records for their hottest temperatures of all time, and two other Middle East nations came within a degree of their hottest temperatures ever. The heat was the most intense in Kuwait, which recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to information I received from the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

It was also incredibly hot in Saudi Arabia, which had its hottest temperature ever on Tuesday (June 22): 52.0°C (125.6°F), measured in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

In Africa, Chad had its hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on Tuesday (June 22), when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on Wednesday (June 23), when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Two other countries came within a degree of their all time hottest temperature on record during the heat wave. Bahrain had its hottest June temperature ever, 46.9°C, on June 20, missing the all-time record of 47.5°C (117.5°F), set July 14, 2000. Temperatures in Quatar reached 48.8°C (119.8°F) on June 20. Quatar's all-time record hottest temperature was 49.6°C (121.3°F) set on July 9, 2000.

According to Essa Ramadan, a Kuwaiti meteorologist from Civil Aviation, Matrabah, Kuwait smashed this record and had Asia's hottest temperature in history on June 15 this year, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F). However, data from this station is notoriously bad, and each year bogus record highs have to be corrected, according to an email I received from weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Asia's hottest temperature in history will very likely remain the 53.5°C (128.3°F) recorded at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26 this year.

Commentary
We've now had seven countries in Asia and Africa that have beaten their all-time hottest temperature record during the past two months. As I discussed in my blog about Pakistan's May 26 record, Southeast Asia also had its all-time hottest temperature in May, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, Myanmar on May 12. All of these records are unofficial, and will need to be certified by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, setting five national heat records in one month is not unprecedented--in August 2003, six countries (the UK, France, Portugal, Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein) all broke their all-time heat records during that year's notorious summer heat wave. Fortunately, the residents of the countries affected by this week's heat wave are more adapted to extreme high temperatures, and we are not seeing the kind of death tolls experienced during the 2003 European heat wave (30,000 killed.) This week's heat wave in Africa and the Middle East is partially a consequence of the fact that Earth has now seen three straight months with its warmest temperatures on record, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. It will be interesting to see if the demise of El Niño in May will keep June from becoming the globe's fourth straight warmest month on record.


Figure 3. Approximate oil spill location on June 23, 2010, and estimated by NOAA using visible satellite imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument, and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from polar-orbiting satellites. Image credit: NOAA Satellite Services Division.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 5 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

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93L already affecting oil price !
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4454
2351. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not TD status tonight but tomorrow we will likely see TD#1.


I'm thinking 2 days more like, or tomorrow night.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 93, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO,


Everything is falling into place, tonight should be one heck of a show. When is DMAX?
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2350. fsumet
Quoting TampaSpin:
Some bloggers have been posting that this trough or front coming is not very strong......i gotta disagree with them about that...


That isn't the correct front Tampa. The front that is supposed to be coming down will be from a low swinging across the Great Lakes on Sunday and Monday.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AL, 93, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO,


Good evening! This system appears ready to ramp up and ramp up quickly.
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2347. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


Its all about timing.......but, i don't see this going into Texas in no way unless it slows and stalls...and the front misses it but, i don't see that happening....From Louisiana to Florida will eventually get this and it will be a named storm in my opinion.....Sheer just does not look to be coming before the Front.


I agree with you...Louisiana or eastward. We could both be wrong.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37995
AL, 93, 2010062500, , BEST, 0, 160N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21388
Quoting Comradez:
What are the coordinates for buoy 42057? Because I see that it is reporting ENE winds. That could be useful...


Station 42057 - Western Caribbean

Owned and maintained by National Data Buoy Center
10-meter discus buoy
ARES payload
16.834 N 81.501 W (16°50'2" N 81°30'2" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Air temp height: 10 m above site elevation
Anemometer height: 10 m above site elevation
Barometer elevation: sea level
Sea temp depth: 1 m below site elevation
Water depth: 293 m
Watch circle radius: 349 yards

Source: Link

National Data Buoy Center
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


I know this has been said over the past couple nights, but I truly believe, tonight coulkd be the night, everything is fitting into place now.
Not TD status tonight but tomorrow we will likely see TD#1.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21388
re 2332 This whole thing reminds me of Wilma. I know that was a late storm, but I think late storms form in this general area, as do June and July storms. Wilma sat, brewed and rapidly intensified, then latched onto a cold front. I don't expect it trough to move that far south, but you're right, could turn further east if that front move far enough south.
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Weather related music with my life style, enjoy :)
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Things will move more quickly now.
Tropical Depression status inches closer with everything that comes out.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21388
Quoting IKE:
Up to 60%. Looks like 93L is on it's way.

The cold front may make it all the way through central Alabama.....not etched in stone yet...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010


SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING THE GFS STILL SHOW A SECONDARY FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH
BY LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHICH EFFECTIVELY CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND MUCH DRIER AIR. NOT SOLD
ON THE IDEA QUITE YET.


Its all about timing.......but, i don't see this going into Texas in no way unless it slows and stalls...and the front misses it but, i don't see that happening....From Louisiana to Florida will eventually get this and it will be a named storm in my opinion.....Sheer just does not look to be coming before the Front.
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2339. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
24/2345 UTC 15.7N 82.2W T1.0/1.0 93L


I know this has been said over the past couple nights, but I truly believe, tonight coulkd be the night, everything is fitting into place now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dvorak now giving 93L a T-number of 1.0.
Things will move more quickly now.
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Dvorak now giving 93L a T-number of 1.0.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21388
2334. Patrap
Watch the Intensity Graph Timeline every run and then one can get a feel for Trends downstream.


And after 24-30..93L will be in Position to Ramp Up currently.


New Guidance soon



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24/2345 UTC 15.7N 82.2W T1.0/1.0 93L
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21388
Quoting Clearwater1:
Why do you say that? I mean, what do you, or did you see to make that statement. I must have missed something in an earlier post. Thanks
I'm seeing a very strong front for June sliding down from the NW. Depending on the speed of the front and the speed of the invest, it could hook right more quickly.
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2315. Adm Allen actually mentioned both deaths in our local newspaper (SunHerald) and said neither were directly related to the oil spill. I of course do not agree.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
16.834 N 81.501 W


would make any low SE of that position
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well for once I guessed right, red at 8!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8679
I just saw an upgrade of code red and B.P. and their clean up crews will make like a tree and leave!! They are worthless along with the Feds*** Oil front property for everyone is certain with an Alex lurking in the weeds.
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2327. scott39
Looks like 93L is getting its act together. Is the track looking like a N Gulf Coast event or is it too soon to know?
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2326. IKE
Up to 60%. Looks like 93L is on it's way.

The cold front may make it all the way through central Alabama.....not etched in stone yet...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
622 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010


SEVERAL MODELS
INCLUDING THE GFS STILL SHOW A SECONDARY FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH
BY LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHICH EFFECTIVELY CLEARS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND MUCH DRIER AIR. NOT SOLD
ON THE IDEA QUITE YET.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37995
2325. Patrap
Omit the last frame to avoid the Bad Flash


Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Comradez:
What are the coordinates for buoy 42057? Because I see that it is reporting ENE winds. That could be useful...
16.834 N 81.501 W
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21388
If this thing is to stall let say while the deep burst of convection consumes the old LLC and reforms, what might this do with regards to strengthening during this time of "slow forward speed"? Can ramp up fairly quick in the warm waters, lot of potential energy...
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2313.. yeah, I hear about it every day. My husband is a very active recreational fisherman. Was going on a tuna trip out of Venice, LA but it was closed. Here in MS North of the barrier islands are open to fish but that's only about 12 miles...for all the boats here that isn't much.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
yeah. We definitely need to keep monitoring this storm in Tampa.
Why do you say that? I mean, what do you, or did you see to make that statement. I must have missed something in an earlier post. Thanks
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What are the coordinates for buoy 42057? Because I see that it is reporting ENE winds. That could be useful...
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Some bloggers have been posting that this trough or front coming is not very strong......i gotta disagree with them about that...



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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
\

we need the rain too, with this heat... plants are dyin


yea, grass n such is starting to die off...been browning the last 2 weeks...
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Quoting Patrap:


No,but I saw the story today on CBS NAtional News and remberered him from another BP story weeks ago.

He was a Father of 2 Sons and a Beautiful Wife and itsa just sad.

The Stress and uncertainty is palatable here and along the Coastal Cities as well to the east.

Toss in a Cyclone and well..itsa gonna be a Bad mix.


You take care of yourself and yours through all this. Ain't your job to fix everthin even if the Nuns and Marines told you so.
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2316. xcool


here we
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15716
Quoting Tropicaddict:


Yes, I read that article....yet Admiral Thad Allen said his death wasn't related to the oil spill.

I know we here on the So. MS coast aren't ready...not ready at all. Just had reports of the oil coming to Ship Island now....not good.


There were actually two oil workers that died yesterday. One of them died in a swimming pool accident. Admiral Allen may have received mixed up information, if he said that.
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Quoting watchingnva:


you didnt get much more than a wind blown heavy sprinkle....just talked to a buddy at hull/288...

we got nadda...darn it...knew it was gonna happen...
\

we need the rain too, with this heat... plants are dyin
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Quoting Tropicaddict:


Yes, I read that article....yet Admiral Thad Allen said his death wasn't related to the oil spill.

I know we here on the So. MS coast aren't ready...not ready at all. Just had reports of the oil coming to Ship Island now....not good.


Did you see how much of the area is closed to fishing and shrimping, even recreational? Link (pdf)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


guess it did.


you didnt get much more than a wind blown heavy sprinkle....just talked to a buddy at hull/288...

we got nadda...darn it...knew it was gonna happen...
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2311. Patrap
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
2268. Patrap 6:59 PM EST on June 24, 2010

Sad times indeed. Did you know the CB Captain?


No,but I saw the story today on CBS NAtional News and remberered him from another BP story weeks ago.

He was a Father of 2 Sons and a Beautiful Wife and itsa just sad.

The Stress and uncertainty is palatable here and along the Coastal Cities as well to the east.

Toss in a Cyclone and well..itsa gonna be a Bad mix.
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93L


Wow.. Celia


Darby
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We have a new COC that is now covered....amazing how fast this happened...WOW
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2308. xcool
DID 93L STALL HMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15716
Pressure at buoy 42057 is now 1007.1 mb.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21388
2298.....agreed. We really haven't had any hit the beaches in MS but the islands have..mainly Horn Island but now Ship and Cat have been threatened with the mousse and nastiness....
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Quoting watchingnva:


yea....taz, ur gonna get yourself iggyed this season...been pushing the envelope lately....


agreed
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I fully expect the models to soon start moving a little more to the right soon.....not much but some....


If that is true,then time over land could be reduced to only 12 hours,the Yucatan isn't mountainous and seems moist at the moment,so 18-12 hours of land interaction isn't going to do much.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Been saying that would probably happen and that move to the north will now change the forecast track by some also...
yeah. We definitely need to keep monitoring this storm in Tampa.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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