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Heaviest 1-day rain in Oklahoma City history; 92L fizzles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on June 15, 2010

Oklahoma City's rainiest day in history brought rampaging floods to the city and surrounding areas yesterday, as widespread rain amounts of 8 - 11 inches deluged the city. Fortunately, no confirmed deaths or injuries have been blamed on the mayhem, though damage is extensive. Oklahoma City's Will Rogers Airport received 7.62" of rain yesterday, smashing the record for the rainiest day in city history. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the city's previous rainiest day occurred September 22, 1970, when 7.53 inches fell. Some rivers continue to rise due to all the rain, and the Canadian River east of downtown Oklahoma City is four feet over flood stage, with major flooding expected today. You can track the flooding using our wundermap with the USGS Flood layer turned on.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for the period June 14 - 15, 2010, during the Oklahoma City floods. A large swath of 8 - 10 inches of rain (dark red colors) was indicated, from Oklahoma City northeastwards.

An inordinate number of major U.S. floods this year
We've had an inordinate number of severe floods in the U.S. so far this year. The worst was the May Tennessee flood, which killed 31 people--the highest death toll from a non-tropical cyclone flooding event in the U.S. since 1994, and the most devastating disaster in Tennessee since the Civil War. The Tennessee floods were rated as a 1000-year flood for Middle Tennessee, West Tennessee, South Central and Western Kentucky and northern Mississippi. Two-day rain totals in some areas were greater than 19 inches.Last Friday's disastrous flash flood in Albert Pike Recreation Area, Arkansas, killed twenty people. That flood was triggered by 8+ inches of rain that fell in just a few hours over the rugged mountains west of Hot Springs. And in March, record rains from a slow-moving and extremely wet Nor'easter triggered historic flooding in Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts, with several rivers exceeding their 100-year flood levels. The 16.32" of rain that fell on Providence, Rhode Island, made March that city's wettest month in recorded history.

All of these flooding events were associated with airmasses though brought record-breaking warm temperatures to surrounding regions of the country. For example, during the overnight hours when the June 11 flood in Arkansas occurred, fifty airports in the Southern and Midwestern U.S. had their highest minimum temperatures on record. During the 1000-year flood in Tennessee, 51 warm minimum temperatures records were set in the eastern half of the U.S. on May 1, and 97 records on May 2. Rhode Island's record wettest March also happened to be its record warmest March. And the air mass that spawned yesterday's Oklahoma City floods set record warm minimum temperatures at 22 airports across the central and Eastern portions of the U.S. on Monday. All this is not surprising, since more moisture can evaporate into warmer air, making record-setting rainfall events more likely when record warm temperatures are present. The total number of airports in the U.S. considered for these comparisons is around 500, so we're talking about significant portions of the U.S. being exposed to these record-breaking warm airmasses this year. For the spring months of March - May, it was the 21st warmest such period in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. At the 500 or so largest airports in the U.S., daily high temperature records outnumbered low temperature records by about a factor 2.5, 1200 to 508. Record high minimums this spring outnumbered record low maximums by 1163 to 568. So far in June, record daily highs have outpaced record lows by 176 to 13, and record high minimums have outpaced record low maximums, 419 to 62.

Flooding and global warming
Groisman et al. (2004) found that in the U.S. during the 20th century, there was a 16% increase in cold season (October - April) "heavy" precipitation events (greater than 2 inches in one day), a 25% increase in "very heavy" precipitation events (greater than 4 inches in one day), and a 36% rise in "extreme" precipitation events (those in the 99.9% percentile--1 in 1000 events.) A sharp rise in extreme precipitation is what is predicted by global warming models in the scientific literature Hegerl et al. (2004). According the landmark 2009 U.S. Climate Impact Report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program, "the amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places." Most of this increase came since 1970, due to the approximate 1°F increase in U.S. average temperature since 1970. That 1°F increase in temperature means that there is 4% more moisture in the atmosphere, on average. According to the 2007 IPCC report, water vapor in the global atmosphere has increased by about 5% over the 20th century, and 4% since 1970. Satellite measurements (Trenberth et al., 2005) have shown a 1.3% per decade increase in water vapor over the global oceans since 1988. Santer et al. (2007) used a climate model to study the relative contribution of natural and human-caused effects on increasing water vapor, and concluded that this increase was "primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases". This was also the conclusion of Willet et al. (2007).

Dr. Joe Romm over at climateprogress.org has an excellent interview with Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center of Atmospheric Research on the subject of heavy precipitation events and global warming. Dr. Trenberth is the world's leading expert on water vapor in the atmosphere, and he comments that "since the 1970s, on average, there's about a 4% increase in water vapor over the Atlantic Ocean, and when that gets caught into a storm, it invigorates the storm so the storm itself changes, and that can easily double the influence of that water vapor and so you can get up to an 8% increase, straight from the amount of water vapor that's sort of hanging around in the atmosphere. This is reasonably well established." Dr. Trenberth further comments, "Now the physical cause for this is very much related to the water vapor that flows into these storms. And these kinds of storms, well all storms for that matter, reach out on average--this is very much a gross average--about 4 times the radius or 16 times the area of the region that's precipitating, the rain. And for these kinds of storms a lot of the moisture is coming out of the sub-tropical Atlantic and even the tropical Atlantic; some of it comes out of the Gulf of Mexico. And so the moisture actually travels about 2000 miles where it gets caught up in these storms and then it rains down. And the key thing is, that in the tropical and sub-tropical Atlantic the sea temperatures are at very high levels and in fact they're the highest on record at the moment right in the eastern tropical Atlantic. It's going to be interesting to see what that does for this hurricane season coming up."

We cannot say that any of this year's flooding disasters were definitely due to global warming, and part of the reason for this year's numerous U.S. flooding disasters is simply bad luck. However, higher temperatures do cause an increased chance of heavy precipitation events, and it is likely that the flooding in some of this year's U.S. flooding disasters were significantly enhanced by the presence of more water vapor in the air due to global warming. We can expect a large increase in flooding disasters in the U.S. and worldwide if the climate continues to warm as expected.


Figure 2. A portable classroom building from a nearby high school floats past submerged cars on I-24 near Nashville, TN on May 1, 2010. One person died in the flooding in this region of I-24. Roughly 200 - 250 vehicles got submerged on this section of I-24, according to wunderphotographer laughingjester, who was a tow truck operator called in to clear out the stranded vehicles.

Funding issues threaten hundreds of streamgages
According to the USGS web site, river stage data from 292 streamgages has been discontinued recently, or is scheduled for elimination in the near future due to budget cuts. In Tennessee, 16 streamflow gages with records going back up to 85 years will stop collecting data on July 1 because of budget cuts. Five gages in Arkansas are slated for elimination this year. Hardest hit will be Pennsylvania, which will lose 30 of its 258 streamgages. With over 50 people dead from two flooding disasters already this year, now hardly seems to be the time to be skimping on monitoring river flow levels by cutting funding for hundreds of streamgages. These gages are critical for proper issuance of flood warnings to people in harm's way. Furthermore, most of the northern 2/3 of the U.S. can expect a much higher incidence of record flooding in coming decades. This will be driven by two factors: increased urban development causing faster run-off, and an increase in very heavy precipitation events due to global warming.


Figure 3. Streamgages that have been discontinued or are being considered for discontinuation or for conversion from continuous record discharge to stage-only stations. Funds for these 292 threatened streamgages are from the U.S. Geological Survey and other Federal, State, Tribal, and local agencies. For those streamgages that have already been discontinued, extensive efforts were made to find another funding source; however, when no funding was made available the streamgages had to be discontinued. If you have questions about specific streamgages, click on the state of concern on the USGS web page of threatened stream gages.

Dry air disrupting 92L
Invest 92L, which yesterday was a remarkably well-developed African tropical wave for so early in the season, has fizzled, due to dry air. Infrared satellite loops show the disturbance has lost nearly all of its heavy thunderstorms, and water vapor satellite loops show that the storm has wrapped a large amount of dry air to the west into the storm's center of circulation. With the storm continuing to track west-northwest to northwest into dryer air, the prospects for 92L developing into a tropical depression appear dim. With wind shear expected to rise from its current levels of 10 - 15 knots to 20 - 25 knots on Wednesday, the combination of shear and dry air should be able to pretty much destroy 92L on Wednesday. Shear values will likely increase to 30 - 40 knots by Friday, when 92L will move into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. There is a window of opportunity this afternoon for 92L to fend off the dry air and organize into a tropical depression. One advantage the storm has it that it has developed a well-formed surface circulation. The low-level center of circulation is easy to spot on satellite imagery, since wind shear due to strong upper-level winds from the west have exposed the center to view. The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a moderate (30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday morning. I would put the chances a bit lower, at 20%. Even if 92L does develop into a tropical depression, it is highly unlikely to cause any trouble for the Lesser Antilles Islands, since wind shear and dry air will probably destroy the system before it can reach the islands.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Invest 92L. The low-level circulation is easy to spot on satellite imagery, since wind shear due to strong upper-level winds from the west have exposed the center to view. A small clump of heavy thunderstorms is located just east of the exposed center of circulation.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. There is a small swirl of low clouds visible in satellite imagery at 8N, 22W, just off the coast of Africa, associated with a tropical wave. This circulation is under wind shear of about 20 knots, which is probably too high for such a small circulation to survive in.

Oil spill wind and ocean current forecast
Light, predominantly southwesterly to westerly winds of 5 - 10 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico most of this week, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The more westerly wind direction is expected to maintain a slow (1/2 mph) eastward-moving surface ocean current that will transport oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle coast, according to the latest ocean current forecast from NOAA's HYCOM model. These winds and currents may be capable of transporting oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by the end of the week. Oil will continue to threaten the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi for the remainder of the week as well, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a typical summertime light wind regime, with winds mostly blowing out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely keep oil close to the coastal areas that have already seen oil impacts over the past two weeks.

NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wind forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA has lauched a great new interactive mapping tool that allows one to overlay wi
nd forecasts, ocean current forecasts, oil location, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question in the comments area on my blog. You can also email the questions to me today before the show: jmasters@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line. Some topics I'll cover today on the show:

1) Why did 92L die so quickly?
2) Is the formation of 92L a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
3) What damage could a hurricane do to oil drilling platforms and underwater pipes at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico?

Today's show, will be 1/2 hour, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting aspectre:
blog1506post3118 Floodman "The recovered oil? The stuff we're talking about would be pretty useless for pretty much anything; the volatiles are out of the oil and what you're left with is a nasty sludge."

What's been lost are the VolatileOrganicCompounds including the stuff cracked&compounded with napthenes into gasoline. Since DeepwaterHorizon was tapping into SweetHeavyCrude, more than 70% remains to be refined into kerosene (aviation fuel), diesel, lubricating oils and greases, waxes, and asphaltines. The lubricants-thru-asphaltines along with residual diesel or recombined with diesel makes up navy special and bunker oil for ships.

Since the recovered portion of the crude is sweet, it's at least a good resource for the remaining refined products as what is coming out of eg SaudiArabia (which has run out of SweetLightCrude) and most of what is coming out of Venezuela. Except for the value of gasoline, it's a better resource than SourLightCrude and much better than SourHeavyCrude: both of which are being refined profitably.

And it is an incomparably better resource than anything coming out of the AlbertaTarSands (misleadingly relabeled into AlbertaOilSands) which is only economically better than synthesizing fuel&etc out of coal. Environmentally, tar sands are about as damaging as coal mining in harvesting the raw material. And Canadian refining is probably worse than coal-to-synfuel conversion would be allowed to be in the US, though the CarbonDioxide waste from the process is a bit lower.


Thanks, aspectre...I was wondering if anyone was going to respond to that
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Quoting serialteg:
gomcasters are here

anyone could've given those percentages... the thing looked healthy so 60%, now anemic so 20%.

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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT
...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
I hope that swirl doesnt end up in the GOM! Oh yea where were you at 8pm last night for those round of drinks?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
gomcasters are here
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT
...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


the thing looked healthy so 60%, now anemic so 20%. (rolleyes)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
224. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT
...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


East Pacific is on fire. GFS maps developed at least 2 waves
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The red dot signifies the approximate location of 92L's COC as of the 12z coordinates.

I wonder whats going to happen when it jumps into that hot bath water?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Drive-by blog alert! Portlight needs your help.

New blog

We appreciate your generosity and support, WUers!!
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The red dot signifies the approximate location of 92L's COC as of the 12z coordinates.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


It's not going to do anything spectacular for quite a while, and perhaps never. It may try to burst today over warmer waters, but nothing significant should come of the system as it approaches and goes through the Caribbean islands. From there it will either completely dissipate or end up in the Gulf of Mexico or east of Florida. At that point if it is still a recognizable system we may have to watch it, but before then I'm not seeing a real chance for this to really go. I have a feeling it will try to hold on today though...will be interesting to see what it does with the extra energy that it just ran into.
Thanks, Looks like the wait and see game. I remember some of those swirls last year hanging on for some time. It will be interesting. We dont want that model to come true of it being in the GOM in 240 hours!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
blog1506post3118 Floodman "The recovered oil? The stuff we're talking about would be pretty useless for pretty much anything; the volatiles are out of the oil and what you're left with is a nasty sludge."

What's been lost are the VolatileOrganicCompounds including the stuff cracked&compounded along with napthenes into gasoline. Since DeepwaterHorizon was tapping into SweetHeavyCrude, more than 70% remains to be refined into kerosene (aviation fuel), diesel, lubricating oils and greases, waxes, and asphaltines. The lubricants-thru-asphaltines along with residual diesel or recombined with diesel makes up the navy special and bunker fuels for ships.

Since the recovered portion of the crude is sweet, it provides at least as good a feedstock for the remaining refined products as what is coming out of eg SaudiArabia and Venezuela (which have mostly run out of SweetLightCrude). Except for the value of gasoline, it's a better feedstock than SourLightCrude and much better than SourHeavyCrude: both of which are being refined profitably.

And it is an incomparably better feedstock than anything coming out of the AlbertaTarSands (misleadingly relabeled into AlbertaOilSands) which is only economically better than synthesizing fuel&etc out of coal. Environmentally, harvesting raw material from tar sands is about as damaging as coal mining. And Canadian refining is probably worse than coal-to-synfuel conversion would be allowed to be in the US, though the CarbonDioxide waste from the process is marginally lower.
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the year of the naked swirl continues, we have a 2009 hangover
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The "Swirl" is very apparent in that shot of 92L.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Levi, As long as 92 can survive until DMAX everynight, how many hours until potiential developement can occur?
(I know I'm not Levi, lol). Well shear is just too high to allow for development, you'll have to wait for 92L to get to the Caribbean which is still far away for any development to occur.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Levi, As long as 92 can survive until DMAX everynight, how many hours until potiential developement can occur?


It's not going to do anything spectacular for quite a while, and perhaps never. It may try to burst today over warmer waters, but nothing significant should come of the system as it approaches and goes through the Caribbean islands. From there it will either completely dissipate or end up in the Gulf of Mexico or east of Florida. At that point if it is still a recognizable system we may have to watch it, but before then I'm not seeing a real chance for this to really go. I have a feeling it will try to hold on today though...will be interesting to see what it does with the extra energy that it just ran into.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Does that image not say movement NW @ 12???
That image says 8 AM, notice almost 6 hours have passed since that movement was updated.
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Quoting Levi32:


Diurnal max refers to a time during the late night/early morning over the tropical ocean when the air temperature is coldest due to lack of sunlight. Water retains heat better than air, so the ocean doesn't cool as much as the air during the night. This imbalance between a warmer ocean and cooler air above it causes instability, which makes air want to rise. In contrast, during the height of the afternoon, the air is at its warmest, and instability is reduced a little bit. This is called diurnal minimum, because convection will generally be less strong during this time of the day over the ocean. Convection is usually strongest over the ocean during the night and early morning when the instability is greatest. Note that this is the opposite of convection over land, where it is strongest during the daytime.


ty much i get it now
I have seen the trem here for a while and never realy knew what it realy was.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well this is no Dolly....but I'm saying it should be tracked until dissipation. You don't just let a loose circulation wander into the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf of Mexico without keeping tabs on it. With the waters that warm you have to be ready for those things to take you by surprise. It will be hard though for 92L to maintain a circulation all the way to the gulf, especially if it moves over the big Caribbean islands. We'll have to see.
Levi, As long as 92 can survive until DMAX everynight, how many hours until potiential developement can occur?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Does that image not say movement NW @ 12???
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Do you have a better image to recommend other than the NHC Floater?
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Quoting HyDrO420:
Could someone please explain DMAX to me .?
Like what it is, when it takes place, and the like?
Or post a link that will explain it to me?
thanks


Diurnal max refers to a time during the late night/early morning over the tropical ocean when the air temperature is coldest due to lack of sunlight. Water retains heat better than air, so the ocean doesn't cool as much as the air during the night. This imbalance between a warmer ocean and cooler air above it causes instability, which makes air want to rise. In contrast, during the height of the afternoon, the air is at its warmest, and instability is reduced a little bit. This is called diurnal minimum, because convection will generally be less strong during this time of the day over the ocean. Convection is usually strongest over the ocean during the night and early morning when the instability is greatest. Note that this is the opposite of convection over land, where it is strongest during the daytime.
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Quoting Levi32:


Mid-level ridge is building back in.

Yeah, just noted that too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's a bad image to use as it has a slanted view which can give the impression of northwestward motion when in reality it is just moving in the general westward motion.



Do you have a better image to recommend other than the NHC Floater?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Repost from last page


Could someone please explain DMAX to me .?
Like what it is, when it takes place, and the like?
Or post a link that will explain it to me?
thanks
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Actually looks like it bolted off to the NW to finish out @ 13.5N 45.5W at the end of the loop, just north of the convection.That's a bad image to use as it has a slanted view which can give the impression of northwestward motion when in reality it is just moving in the general westward motion.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Could someone please explain DMAX to me .?
Like what it is, when it takes place, and the like?
Or post a link that will explain it to me?
thanks
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Could be because of weakening. Steering is also favoring general westward motion.



Mid-level ridge is building back in.

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Quoting Levi32:
Very clear westward turn on TPW during the last 12 hours.

Could be because of weakening. Steering is also favoring general westward motion.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The CMC is great at illustrating the worst-case scenario, and this is what it had 92L doing in the gulf at 240 hours on last night's 0z run.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L looks to be moving westward at a steady pace, interesting to say the least.



Actually looks like it bolted off to the NW to finish out @ 13.5N 45.5W at the end of the loop, just north of the convection.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's an image that hasn't been updating but general westward motion with slight west-northwestward motion can be noted.


I can agree with that. It seems to be a mix between W and WNW technically.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just because you cannot see it does not mean its not there


Exactly. They can be sneaky.
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looks like the canadian bacon model takes 92L to near the Bahamas
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Quoting Levi32:


Well this is no Dolly....but I'm saying it should be tracked until dissipation. You don't just let a loose circulation wander into the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf of Mexico without keeping tabs on it. With the waters that warm you have to be ready for those things to take you by surprise. It will be hard though for 92L to maintain a circulation all the way to the gulf, especially if it moves over the big Caribbean islands. We'll have to see.
just because you cannot see it does not mean its not there
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Quoting weatherblog:


That's clearly WNW.
That's an image that hasn't been updating but general westward motion with slight west-northwestward motion can be noted.
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Quoting btwntx08:
still it is long ways out and if that area that where is headed is favorable different story


Hi btwntx08,

Remember me? Located in southeast,TX. About 10-15 minutes from the TX/LA border.
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Very clear westward turn on TPW during the last 12 hours.

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185. 7544
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well it looks to be dissipating for the time being but as its energy tracks across the Atlantic towards more favorable conditions it could develop.


yeap the models did show this when it reaches this area after we have to wait and see what happens as it gets further west if it could hold on it might have a nother shot imo
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
tornado watch will be out soon for central indiana, and east central illinois
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Quoting weatherblog:


So it could develop after all and not really be "RIP". Kind of reminds me of Dolly. It took it until the NW Caribbean for it to develop and then it became a monster... in July!


Well this is no Dolly....but I'm saying it should be tracked until dissipation. You don't just let a loose circulation wander into the Caribbean/Bahamas/Gulf of Mexico without keeping tabs on it. With the waters that warm you have to be ready for those things to take you by surprise. It will be hard though for 92L to maintain a circulation all the way to the gulf, especially if it moves over the big Caribbean islands. We'll have to see.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
92L looks to be moving westward at a steady pace, interesting to say the least.



That's clearly WNW.
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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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