Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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Quoting scott39:
Thanks 456, Lets hope the shear keeps coming for now!


It's too late...when we have a wave showing signs of development in June it does not bode well for the season ahead. It looks more like July 12 out there doing a tropical update on the tropical Atlantic.
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1011. SBG
Quoting IKE:


Good for you. I wouldn't give em a penny.


As consumers you can do what you want but did you know that most of the stations are NOT corporate owned. They are mom and pop places owned by ordinary people, just like those being economically impacted on the coast. None of this is their fault so why blame and take it out on them.

With all due respect, I certainly get people not wanting to buy BP gas and give them money, but why take it out on station owners. I have a client who owns a gas station and he told me the money is not made on gas because the markups are small and regulated. The money is made on the stuff in the store. So don't buy the gas, but buy a pack of gum or cup of coffee. These people have kids and families that are being hurt by this just like the Gulf fisherman.

By the way- define irony. While we rip BP and yes I have done it, most of us are VERY small owners of BP. That's right look at your mutual fund holdings. You will likely find that at least one of them has shares of BP. The funds in my kids' 529 plans have BP shares in them. While part of me wants no dividends paid because the board members are the biggest shareholders, I do want those dividends paid to my mutual funds.

If the BP board really cared about doing the right thing they would pay the dividend because it is not fair not to to Mr. and Mrs. American Gothic who are retired, own a few hundred shares and count on the quarterly dividend to pay their quarterly water bill. However, at the same time, the board should donate their dividends to help those impacted by this while at the same time taking enough responsibility to stop taking their multi million dollar salaries.
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1009. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

CATL wave shows some signs of development; significant development not expected
Thanks 456, Lets hope the shear keeps coming for now!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
1008. scott39
Quoting MissNadia:
Lifted from Beachfoxx's blog

Talking about SHARKS !!!!



LETTER: Shark scare: Blood and oil in the water
June 11, 2010 2:55 PM
Pat McAlum
On Monday morning June 7 while diving at a popular dive site called bridge Rubble 2½ miles out of the East Pass, I had a close encounter with a quarter of angry bull sharks.

We had been fishing for red snapper and watching dolphins swim around the boat prior to entering the water at around 10:45 a.m.

I was the first one in the water and while loading the spear gun on the way down, I saw the first shark, but I couldn’t make out the size or type of shark.

After reaching bottom and looking around, I didn’t sea anymore sharks and began hunting for fish. Only moments after shooting a fish and securing it to the stringer, two bull sharks appeared very quickly followed by two others. All four sharks were between 5 and 6 feet with one at least 7 feet.

The sharks were agitated and very aggressive.

I removed the fish from the stringer and let it drop to the rocks while I ascended. Immediately. two of the four sharks went toward the dead fish while the third continued approaching me. A slight poke to the head was enough to deter it and make it turn and swim away.

On the way up, I met dive buddy Rich Lacour and three other divers heading down. I signaled to them to terminate the dive and return to the boat. One of the sharks was circling around them so the reason was apparent.

I’ve been diving the Gulf Coast area for 23 years, and this was the first encounter with this many sharks and with such aggressive behavior.
Who knows, fish could start having Neurological problems from the oil! Mad Fish Disease
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
1007. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning

Blog Update

CATL wave shows some signs of development; significant development not expected
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1005. IKE
1002...maybe they're having problems finding food as a result of the oil volcano.
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Quoting IKE:
Well....maybe they won't mention the east ATL wave.....





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


Ike,they may be waiting to see more visible images and ASCAT data and to see if the models go more bullish to then start to mention it but that is only my opinion.
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1003. scott39
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
from Ike's 997 post, looks like they don't want you in the waters in Gulf Shores and I think some of the Panhandle's water are off limits as well. But us over in Mississippi are open, no oil yet

I love Ike's post, .....lifegaurds coaxed ppl out of the water..LOL priceless
LOL, "Hey thats not Chocolate milk your swallowing, you might want to get out of the water".
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
Lifted from Beachfoxx's blog

Talking about SHARKS !!!!



LETTER: Shark scare: Blood and oil in the water
June 11, 2010 2:55 PM
Pat McAlum
On Monday morning June 7 while diving at a popular dive site called bridge Rubble 2½ miles out of the East Pass, I had a close encounter with a quarter of angry bull sharks.

We had been fishing for red snapper and watching dolphins swim around the boat prior to entering the water at around 10:45 a.m.

I was the first one in the water and while loading the spear gun on the way down, I saw the first shark, but I couldn’t make out the size or type of shark.

After reaching bottom and looking around, I didn’t sea anymore sharks and began hunting for fish. Only moments after shooting a fish and securing it to the stringer, two bull sharks appeared very quickly followed by two others. All four sharks were between 5 and 6 feet with one at least 7 feet.

The sharks were agitated and very aggressive.

I removed the fish from the stringer and let it drop to the rocks while I ascended. Immediately. two of the four sharks went toward the dead fish while the third continued approaching me. A slight poke to the head was enough to deter it and make it turn and swim away.

On the way up, I met dive buddy Rich Lacour and three other divers heading down. I signaled to them to terminate the dive and return to the boat. One of the sharks was circling around them so the reason was apparent.

I’ve been diving the Gulf Coast area for 23 years, and this was the first encounter with this many sharks and with such aggressive behavior.
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1001. IKE
Well....maybe they won't mention the east ATL wave.....





TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


Pretty soon, you won't be able to go out in the Gulf at all

Morning all, saw the sad pics on Channel 5 out Mobile from Gulf Shores, thick orange blobs left on the beach from high tide
Who makes the decisions for closing done the beaches?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
998. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


haha, you forgot to add shark attacks will be down too


True...lol.
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997. IKE
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


Pretty soon, you won't be able to go out in the Gulf at all

Morning all, saw the sad pics on Channel 5 out Mobile from Gulf Shores, thick orange blobs left on the beach from high tide


You're probably right.

Oil washing onshore....in Alabama....




By Ryan Dezember and Robert McClendon

GULF SHORES, Ala. -- Significant stretches of Baldwin County's 32 miles of white sand beach were fouled Friday by tendrils of oil that sloshed ashore, marking the worst contamination to date on Alabama's coast.

Shortly after 1:30 p.m., rust-colored waves began cresting over a near-shore sand bar at Gulf Shores' public beach as hundreds of swimmers and sunbathers looked on.

The oil stretched out parallel to the beach for perhaps 200 yards as it crept into the shallows. The ruddy patch was preceded by a sheen that, through polarized lenses, appeared to flicker as if schools of tiny fish were darting across its surface.

Crowds began to gather at water's edge, unknowingly standing in flecks of oil, snapping cell phone photos, while lifeguards coaxed out stubborn swimmers.

From here.
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Quoting IKE:


Sun reflecting off of it..lol.

Advantage to oil on the coast...it should keep the drownings down this year in the gulf. Odds of getting bit by a crab or jellyfish should be reduced.
Have they said if its safe or not to swim in? Im not going to because common sense tells me not to, but my son is 18 and he has none right now, so im concerned.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
993. IKE
Quoting scott39:
One of the BP gas stations in Mobile had its gas at $2.25 a gallon yesterday. I gave them the finger and filled up across the street to the gas station that was competing with them. Dumb, Dumb BP.


Good for you. I wouldn't give em a penny.
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992. IKE
Quoting scott39:
I wonder if when we get in the water at the Gulf now, that when we lay out, the oil sheen will help tan us? LOL


Sun reflecting off of it..lol.

Advantage to oil on the coast...it should keep the drownings down this year in the gulf. Odds of getting bit by a crab or jellyfish should be reduced.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
One of the BP gas stations in Mobile had its gas at $2.25 a gallon yesterday. I gave them the finger and filled up across the street to the gas station that was competing with them. Dumb, Dumb BP.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
I wonder if when we get in the water at the Gulf now, that when we lay out, the oil sheen will help tan us? LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
Quoting IKE:
The futures so bright I gotta wear shades. The oils so bright I gotta wear shades:(Link

73.6 outside my window...right now.
Morning Ike, I havent heard that one in awhile.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 7277
988. IKE
The futures so bright I gotta wear shades. The oils so bright I gotta wear shades:(Link

73.6 outside my window...right now.
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987. IKE
Accuweather...


Few Tropical Waves
Jun 12, 2010 7:01 AM



A fast moving tropical wave located near 86 west and south of 17 north will move across central America into southeast Mexico later Saturday into Saturday night. The primary impacts will be locally heavy rain from Nicaragua and Honduras westward into southeast Mexico.

There are 2 robust tropical waves causing clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the central and eastern Atlantic. Both of these waves are at a far south latitude, typically unfavorable for development. These waves are located at 35 and 22 west and do have weak low level circulations. Numerous thunderstorms continue to maintain intensity around the center of the systems. Though sea surface water temperatures are favorable for development, moderate southerly wind shear lies in both systems paths. Organization if any will be slow the next 24 to 48 hours.

By AccuWeather Meteorologist Justin Povick
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From the 8:05 AM discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 25W-38W. THE WAVE IS
ALSO WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
06N33W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-36W.
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Morning Ike, aquak9
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984. IKE
NHC might mention that wave at 35w.

The GFS shows it moving to near 20N and 60W. It's got a high over it now, but the future doesn't look very promising for it from what I can see.

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982. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Ike- I know, it's horrid. Never thought I'd see this in my lifetime. The gulf, destroyed.

Unimaginable.

Peace, ya'll.


Have a nice day!
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981. IKE
00Z UKMET @ 54 hours....

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Ike- I know, it's horrid. Never thought I'd see this in my lifetime. The gulf, destroyed.

Unimaginable.

Peace, ya'll.
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The 06z surface analysis has a low pressure between 30-35W.

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977. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
ike- can you still get local seafood in your area?


As far as I know, you can.

Trouble is looming off of the coast, just waiting for a strong SW wind to push it to shore...

" Travis Griggs
Pensacola News Journal

Friday, a large plume of weathered oil was detected nine miles south of Pensacola Pass, according to the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. The plume was two miles wide and stretched 40 miles into the Gulf.

Another plume of non-weathered oil was observed six miles south of Escambia County during state reconnaissance flights.

From here.
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ike- can you still get local seafood in your area?
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has there ever been a time that arctic ice has melted at such a rate?
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974. IKE
Not sure why the link won't/didn't work.

Wave approaching 35 west is about it for now in the ATL.
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link didn't work for me, Ike.

Figure we're good for at leas another week. Maybe something to watch on the western carib, no worries, just something to watch.

Then there's way way out east, trop disturbance + trop wave...like east of 35. Even with a week's worth of watching and waiting, it and MJO won't be caught up w/each other. But still...

July could be real ugly..we got flour sugar and eggs, the oven is on, the cake pans are ready. Just waiting on MJO to mix it all together and bake us a cake.
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972. IKE
00Z GFS through June 28th...
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971. JLPR2


Well, I'm off to bed.
Good night everyone and good morning to others. :D
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969. xcool
nice cat3
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15743
967. JLPR2
Quoting btwntx08:
well i g2g good night scott and all


night!
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966. xcool
show cat 3 in epac
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15743
965. xcool
Link


here
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15743
962. xcool
bye rob
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15743

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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