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Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting IKE:
ECMWF does develop 2 in the eastern Pacific.


All models are developing those two, with the exception of the NAM which develops only one.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1561. xcool


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1560. IKE
ECMWF does develop 2 in the eastern Pacific.
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1556. xcool


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1555. IKE
Quoting SiestaKeySam:
It figures, the latest ECM doesn't show it developing. Surprising? Not at all. Given' what awaits it.


Yeah, I don't see it developing on the 12Z ECMWF. See a wave that heads east of the northern islands on Thursday and then is gone next Friday. Nothing else approaching any land mass through June 22nd.

You can see the wave near 35W on the South America view of the 12Z ECMWF....but it diminishes as it heads WNW.
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Quoting StormW:
Based on the updated steering layers forecast maps...I see this gaining latitude to around 13 to 15N in the next 84-96 hours.


Any thoughts on how far west it will be at 13 or 15 north? Thanks
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1553. xcool
wave 34w take it's sweet old time
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HPC is late on the PMDCA, perhaps looking into this more.
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1551. xcool
I LMAO IFIF cmc MODELS.NAILS IMO.
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1549. xcool
Drakoen i agree & :0
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1547. xcool
SiestaKeySam.I'M LOOK NOW
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Quoting Weather456:


Wow, howd you make such a nice loop.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1545. Drakoen
There are signs that the system is trying to wrap around its eastern side more into the circulation.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1542. unf97
Quoting StormW:


Well, I know some folks are fairly hyped about having such a good looking feature in the CATL this time of the year...but let's not jump the gun! This has a chance at INVEST status, and MAYBE, some additional organization after that, but unless the upper level pattern changes, once it hits the Windwards...


Good afternoon StormW!

I appreciated this post here. A very astute voice of reasoning, which is needed on this blog at various times.
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wow





Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Still waiting for the 12z ECMWF, NAM 18z.
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1538. IKE
Quoting kuppenskup:


#Exactly-That's why I dont agree with long term models at all. Anything can happen and it usually does.


What I see is a system that is heading into a bad environment if it moves to near 20N and 60W because of shear. Beyond that I don't know.... if it makes a comeback or dies completely. Too far out in time beyond 20N and 60W.

If it stayed going west it might have a chance. I haven't seen that as the track except on the CMC.

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1536. xcool


I GIVE 20% development .
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
looking like we'll be following a 92L in the next 12hrs imo...same wave that came off africa 2 days ago and it looked healthy then I believe drak first mentioned it and I was thinking it would be our next invest on thursday night......2010 TC season to commence in days IMO!!!!......Hey OZ ready for a FL trip towards the end of this month???
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1531. xcool
so gfs and cmc ngp hmmm
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Hmm, I don't think it will develop. Although it looks like a nice wave, there is 20-30knt shear to the NW of it that may inhibit it to grow. Perhaps this is why the NHC is not labeling this as a potential area of development...yet.
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Quoting winter123:


Keep doing those! Though doesn't 14 or 15 days make more sense than 12?


Actually Cyclone Oz does them.
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Don't but your panties in a wad its June.
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1524. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
AOI
XX/XX/XL
MARK
6.7N/35.6
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Quoting IKE:


It's nearly three-thousand miles from Florida.


#Exactly-That's why I dont agree with long term models at all. Anything can happen and it usually does.
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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
looks like 92L in the makeing
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Quoting MrstormX:


That shows deepening and rotation, impressive...
Agreed.
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anyone know when the PMDCA is going to come out?
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1513. IKE
Quoting SiestaKeySam:
Why does the NGP always exagerates on intensity? LOL.


If the NOGAPS were correct so far in 2010, we would be up to the C or D name in the Atlantic.

I agree with your statement.
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Quoting StormW:
RGB LOOP


That shows deepening and rotation, impressive...
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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