Floods kill 16 in Arkansas; dozens missing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:24 PM GMT on June 11, 2010

Heavy rains in excess of seven inches fell over southwestern Arkansas overnight, triggering flash floods that killed at least sixteen people in Caddo Gap, in the rugged Ouachita Mountains. Forty people are missing, with dozens injured. The closest weather station to the disaster is Mount Ida, which recorded 7.16" of rain over the past 48 hours. The USGS is reporting that the Caddo River in Caddo Gap rose from 8.4 feet at 3am CDT to 25.39 feet in just five hours, reaching the 2nd highest flood height on the river since records began in 1989. The Little Missouri River west of Caddo Gap rose 20 feet overnight, from 3 feet to 23.5 feet. The previous highest flood in the 22-year record at this location was just 14.66 feet, set in 2008. You can look at local rainfall amounts and river flood levels in the region using our wundermap with the "USGS River" layer turned on.

Andy Revkin at the New York Times has a blog worth reading on the disaster.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for June 9 - 11 over Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches are indicated for Caddo Gap, where today's flood disaster occurred.

Oil spill update
Southeast to south winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow today through Saturday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the shores of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The winds become light an variable Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in little movement of the spill. The long range 8 - 16 day forecast from the GFS model indicates a continued regime of light winds, mostly out of the south or southeast. This wind regime will likely push oil onto sections of the eastern Louisiana coast during the period 1 - 2 weeks from now.


Figure 2. The oil spill as imaged on June 10, 2010, by NASA's Aqua satellite.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
NOAA's fact sheet on Hurricanes and the Oil Spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. I'll have a new post either Saturday or Monday.

Jeff Masters

Wicked sky (vanpet)
Storm front pushing through jacksonville Arkansas!
Wicked sky
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010 (yfoog)
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010
flash flood russellville arkansas friday june 11th 2010

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2462. JLPR2
Quoting NOVArules:
To be honest, I hate the taste of beer. And the wave seems to be consolidating as time goes on


Me too, but that doesn't mean I cant drink something else
>:3
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 9014
Quoting SiestaKeySam:


Good heavens, child, you better, your under-age, :0.
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21497
2459. Drakoen
It seems the new BAMM see this gaining more latutide up to 16N and as a result get into some sheear at the end of the forecast period.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 48 58 67 70 69 66 60 53

SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 2 6 8 7 12 14 19 27 31 35
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 1 -1 -3 3 2 -2 -1 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 125 107 71 119 24 46 187 202 213 238 233 262 248
SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3
POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 137 134 131 129 129 134 137 138 139 140
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 146 141 137 133 130 129 134 138 136 134 131
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10
700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 76 75 72 72 62 60 60 53 49 50
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4
850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 25 22 24 16 9 -10 -17 -17 -18 -8 -11
200 MB DIV 105 99 116 150 136 136 115 71 27 -6 2 -8 -5
LAND (KM) 1346 1325 1293 1285 1289 1346 1370 1267 1197 1115 1066 1001 915
LAT (DEG N) 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 9.1 10.4 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.2
LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.1 34.2 35.3 36.3 38.3 40.5 42.7 45.1 47.8 50.9 53.1 54.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 13 10 7
HEAT CONTENT 55 43 36 36 35 31 21 22 33 42 53 63 61
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32705
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Cokes just as good lol
Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21497
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
SHIPS still shows intensification and this time track is interpolated Official from NHC.


Wow.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 16269
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Quoting Weather456:


Sure



Isn't CIMSS generally more accurate than SSD?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah not me, I'm stuck with coke, lol.


Cokes just as good lol
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 16269
Quoting Weather456:


Sure



Thanks. The shear doesn't look too fast... or am I wishcasting?

-Snowlover123
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SHIPS still shows intensification and this time track is interpolated Official from NHC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:


If it survives the TUTT and shear that is.
That's not what I meant. I was thinking more towards the short term. If it moves south like how Felix did when it passed through the southern Antilles it could really intensify.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21497
Quoting Snowlover123:
456, could you post a map of current shear around this disturbance? Thank you.

-Snowlover123


Sure

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Beer and popcorn time...

Yeah not me, I'm stuck with coke, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21497
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If 92L does a track similar to Felix in 2007, this system could be really bad.



If it survives the TUTT and shear that is.
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Blog Update!

Hurricane Season Blog #21: Daily Update - 92L -
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21497
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Can you guys do us a favor and not quote the troll (Sleetman1)?


I second that...why we can't ask and answer questions and just ignore everything else
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
456, could you post a map of current shear around this disturbance? Thank you.

-Snowlover123
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If 92L does a track similar to Felix in 2007, this system could be really bad.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 131 Comments: 21497
Beer and popcorn time...

Kind of in shock this is actually out there,
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 16269
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
....its not even DMAX


telling you
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting NOVArules:
To be honest, I hate the taste of beer. And the wave seems to be consolidating as time goes on


Thats typical of Tropical Cyclonegensis these African Waves, they start out as a broad area of low pressure with scattered convection then convection consolidates, and eventually a storm is born.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



how many times do we need too see that


Oh, sorry. Didn't know it was posted before.
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Quoting IKE:


Don't need anything in the Oil of Mexico.


Couldn't agree with you more, but...... It's not looking good for that to happen this year.
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Quoting Weather456:
Crazy



Yep, like it just popped
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Quoting Snowlover123:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS
EVENING. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN



how many times do we need too see that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Dang can't drink beer,I'm under age.I'll have a coke please.LoL.
To be honest, I hate the taste of beer. And the wave seems to be consolidating as time goes on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
....its not even DMAX
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 16269
Quoting leo305:


ah so that's a good thing for development then, since it actually causes the convection to form?


It is a good thing, all the big ones go through this phase.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
2421. SLU
160

WHXX01 KWBC 130055

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0055 UTC SUN JUN 13 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100613 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100613 0000 100613 1200 100614 0000 100614 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 6.4N 31.9W 7.4N 34.1W 8.6N 36.2W 9.9N 38.4W

BAMD 6.4N 31.9W 7.0N 34.8W 7.9N 37.4W 8.8N 40.1W

BAMM 6.4N 31.9W 7.1N 34.6W 8.0N 37.1W 9.1N 39.6W

LBAR 6.4N 31.9W 6.8N 34.3W 8.0N 37.1W 8.9N 40.0W

SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 47KTS 60KTS

DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 47KTS 60KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100615 0000 100616 0000 100617 0000 100618 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.0N 40.5W 12.6N 45.6W 14.1N 50.5W 15.2N 55.4W

BAMD 9.8N 42.6W 11.6N 47.3W 13.8N 50.9W 15.6N 52.8W

BAMM 10.1N 41.7W 11.3N 46.6W 12.7N 51.5W 13.8N 55.5W

LBAR 10.5N 43.1W 13.8N 48.3W 16.5N 50.3W 20.6N 47.7W

SHIP 70KTS 76KTS 68KTS 57KTS

DSHP 70KTS 76KTS 68KTS 57KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 6.4N LONCUR = 31.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 6.2N LONM12 = 30.1W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 6.1N LONM24 = 28.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting Tazmanian:
not at all we have vary warm sea tempers with no EL Nino


Hey Taz, Pinhole?
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HEY stormpetrol ( oops sorry fogot the caps) anyway it might even have a track like Ivan
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2416. IKE
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Dude, I think we are gonna need the Crown and plenty of cold beer to wash it down with this year. If the season is anywhere near what they predict, we're in for a long hall.


Don't need anything in the Oil of Mexico.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Look at the NE (top left) corner of the animation I just posted...that's how far NE the ridge or outflow extends as indicated by the clouds racing NEward. It indicates the spatial scale of favorable conditions ahead.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
We'll have Code Orange to Code Red by tomorrow. My prediction only.
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not at all we have vary warm sea tempers with no EL Nino
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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