Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.

Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.

Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.

Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting Patrap:

Its a way of thinking and I dont thinks its a regional thing,more of a lacking to understand and accept reality

I guess. I mean don't get me wrong... we all know the real truth behind the OKC bombing and some of those school shootings years ago, but this is a stretch.
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Recent satellite images show Phet losing organization of his core as dry air gets entrained from the northwest.

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So loud boomers over Lake Worth/Palm Springs.
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How about ?

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476. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
FKIN20 VIDP 021630
DTG: 20100602/1200Z
NR: 6
PSN: N1800 E06030
C: 970 HPA
FCST PSN+6HR: 02/1800Z N1830 E06000
FCST PSN+12HR: 02/0000Z N1900 E05930
FCST PSN+18HR: 02/0600Z N1930 E05900
FCST PSN+24HR: 03/1200Z N2000 E05900

T4.5 (80 kts) at 12:00 PM UTC from the RSMC. -_-'
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Quoting CycloneOz:

We're talking epic disaster! It's still strengthening...and that part of the world is known for SAND!

Cat 5 winds? Oman could be buried like the legendary city of Tanis, home of the "well of souls" and the ark of the covenant. "Consumed by the wrath of God."

It is actually weakening, possibly rapidly. Dry air is severely disrupting the core. Post from earlier:

This water vapor image shows the upper trough over eastern Iran that is trying to recurve Cyclone Phet, as well as the big ridge moving in from Saudi Arabia that may prevent Phet from being completely recurved by the trough in time to avoid hitting Oman in a direct way. Massive subsidence associated with this ridge right over the Arabian Desert shows up well on the water vapor image as very black, dry, desert air that is attacking Phet's northwest quadrant. You can see the outflow channel to the north getting cut-off and sheared to the northeast as the dry NW flow on the eastern flank of the Arabian ridge punches into the storm. In this kind of a situation I highly doubt Phet will attain Category 5 status.

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Quoting Patrap:

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Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Melbourne town hall crowd: How do we know the Gulf oil spill wasn't sabotage? Here's how

Judging by audience comments at a town-hall meeting Tuesday at Melbourne City hall, a disturbing number of Brevardians have embraced the conspiracy theory that the the gulf oil spill was an act of sabotage.



why am I not surprised?

I am almost ashamed to call this town my home.
We have ALOT of blockheads around here.
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Quoting Grothar:

You can trust us Wind, CycloneOZ is definitely not JFV. He may be a little strange, and his jaw may crack when eating, and he may have noticeable troubling digesting raw vegetables, but he is a good blogger!!!!!! He is OK.

Oh, you met Oz too? Yes, I can also vouch that Cyclone Oz is not JFV. He's too large to be JFV...
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Quoting skepticall2:

Quit confusing people with logic Sirmaelstrom.

Sorry about that. :^)
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I am becoming more and more concerned that Cyclone Phet is not going to recurve until the next longwave trough gets it, and that would give Oman a direct hit, plus much more rainfall and farther inland.
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Quoting CaneWarning:

Where's it gonna hit?

"its gonna hit florida"__eddye
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Time now for an impropmtu "Top 10 Most Common Comments/Words on the Blog, 2010"

10. When is DMAX?

9. I lost all my links, can you tell me where you got that image?

8. Long time lurker, first time poster

7. [Area X] is waaaaay overdue for a strike

6. Local met says...

5. [Model X] is out to lunch (seen when in disagreement with position)

4. I've been through [insert popular hurricane here]

... to be continued

Where's it gonna hit?

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BP Twitter spoof generates $10K for Gulf helpers
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Quoting CycloneOz:

LOL...95% of the time that's a correct statement.

I don't know about that JFV!

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87 AustinTXWeather "Paragraph from Philip Klotzbach & Dr. Gray's Hurricane season 2010 released today [...] 18 named storms [...]"

Yipes, I hope not. I was playing arithmetic with the ratios between named storms, hurricanes, and majors in various years, then comparing those years by similarities.
And basicly came up with, given similar HurricaneSeason conditions: The greater the number of named storms, the fewer the number of major hurricanes.
And conversely: The fewer the number of named storms, the greater the number of major hurricanes... with the greatest increase in the numbers at the upper end.

Admittedly as an analyst (considering the number of seasons sampled and how non-randomly they were chosen) I'd make a good numerologist.
But still... 18 named storms... using 2005 as the similar season for 2010...
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Quoting CycloneOz:

Mobile, Tampa, Corpus Christi, Ft. Lauderdale, Daytona Beach, name a few cities that are overdue.

Don't leave out NYC.
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Quoting CycloneOz:

ROFLMAO!!!! How many times has that been posted? LOL!!!

That would be the first time I have ever seen it :)
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452. myway
Quoting CycloneOz:

Mobile, Tampa, Corpus Christi, Ft. Lauderdale, Daytona Beach, name a few cities that are overdue.

How about Long Island?
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If certain past record temperature readings above 130°F are unreliable, wouldn't all temperature readings around the same time frame by the same instruments be equally unreliable?
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449. IKE
Had a heavy thunderstorm here with lots of lightning strikes. Had to log back in to WU. That thunderstorm was Rockin The Casbah.

Clearing up now and 72.5 at my house....
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12 its moving west
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Quoting NRAamy:
Don't you mean it's rank, alright?

don't mess with me, boy...


Yes M'am...
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Man, that wave is a monster!

If it were August, September, or October...I'd already be planning on leaving here to intercept.

Lol I can just imagine you waking up in the morning, taking one peak at the floater and then zooming off in a little motorboat eastward towards the sunrise.
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Don't you mean it's rank, alright?

don't mess with me, boy...

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11. .."Low and nimble"..

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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