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Little change to 90L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on May 25, 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.


Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting Levi32:


Storms aren't put into categories based on convection. The maximum winds are tropical storm-force, and thus if classified it would be a subtropical storm.


Ohh ok.. interesting.. Right now I'm calling it a Hybrid Low. You can see why this has not been de-activated, so I think the NHC is watching it. A special statement was not supposed to be issued this afternoon.
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Quoting xcool:





where did you go to get this?
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813. IKE
It does show an increase in moisture...quite a bit. But as far as tropical storm/hurricane...no.
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Quoting reedzone:


I think it looks more like a Subtropical Depression.. More convection needs to build up, it hasn't even reached the Gulf Stream yet, some models don't touch it, some models drive it in there..
Winds are at 45 MPH soooo I really don't know what they would label it, but I totally agree with you.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Oh really?



yea that low goes away in the next few frames
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Where did you go to get this?
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808. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
GFS does nothing in the NW Caribbean


Agree.
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Quoting reedzone:


I think it looks more like a Subtropical Depression.. More convection needs to build up, it hasn't even reached the Gulf Stream yet, some models don't touch it, some models drive it in there..


Storms aren't put into categories based on convection. The maximum winds are tropical storm-force, and thus if classified it would be a subtropical storm.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
GFS does nothing in the NW Caribbean


Oh really?

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I guess it's important to keep in mind that it is still May...
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804. xcool
Hurricanes101 .WAIT FOR 00z GFS...
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Quoting cg2916:
Ah, Inaccuweather, you can always count on them to hype things up.
Really? They have a lot of info to back them up on that prediction.
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801. IKE
18Z GFS doesn't do much with 90E once it gets in the Caribbean. Thought it would show more...thru 132 hours.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
whats the shear in this area right now


You can that it looks rather sheared. Nothing of concern.
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Quoting Levi32:


True. With more convection, we could probably make a case for naming, but if I were the NHC I wouldn't name it the way it is right now. That could change a lot during the next 24 hours though.


I think it looks more like a Subtropical Depression.. More convection needs to build up, it hasn't even reached the Gulf Stream yet, some models don't touch it, some models drive it in there..
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Quoting cg2916:
Ah, Inaccuweather, you can always count on them to hype things up.


I really think they get a bum rap for a lot of things and are mostly right about the things they say

Also as 456 showed, they may be on to something
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Quoting Levi32:


True. With more convection, we could probably make a case for naming, but if I were the NHC I wouldn't name it the way it is right now. That could change a lot during the next 24 hours though.
Yeah I would agree. It looks too "poor" to be named, especially how conservative the NHC is, if this were 1970 I'm sure this would already be named.
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Quoting cg2916:
Ah, Inaccuweather, you can always count on them to hype things up.


Go actually watch the video and then tell me if that's hyping.
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evening FIU

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Storm Relative 16km Microwave-Based Total Precipitable Water Imagery

1955 UTC

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Ah, Inaccuweather, you can always count on them to hype things up.
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GFS does nothing in the NW Caribbean
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Quoting sarahjola:
does anyone think that this season is going to be all east coast landfalls? that is something i heard and i wanted to know what you all thought about that. where does the Bermuda high have to be for this to happen and is it looking like the high will be pushing storms to the east coast or the gulf coast this season? thanks in advance


For that to occur, we have to a high in the Central Atlantic that is not too far west as in 2008 and 2005 and not too far east as in 2006 and 2009.

A centralized high pressure ridge allows system to curve more towards the NW without ever going out to sea (east coast landfalls).

Now I am expecting a high pressure set-up similar to 2005 and 2008 based on similar conditions in April of all three years. Thus I am not expecting much east coast landfall above 30N this year. Now that does not exclude the area from landfalls, just a lower probability.


Also the highest pressure anomalies forecasted for the peak of the hurricane season favors 2008 and 2005 tracks.
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Quoting xcool:



it comes across the cayman trench water is the deepest there good heat contend if all connections are made the first of many that are yet to come will be a forming
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Quoting Weather456:
Accuweather has a point



True. With more convection, we could probably make a case for naming, but if I were the NHC I wouldn't name it the way it is right now. That could change a lot during the next 24 hours though.
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Quoting xcool:



new ngp




Wow according to this model, 90E is heading toward Peuto Rico!
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781. xcool
FIU2010 .yeah i just post NEW NGP.
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There's an outside
Quoting Acemmett90:
wtf im going the the bahamas on thurs then this little Devil shows uphe carib

Judging by this there is an outside chance we could have 3 named systems by the time June 1st rolls around.
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Quoting pottery:

This season will NOT be all East coast landfalls. Guaranteed.
Promise you that.
And I know next to nothing about weather.

thanks! and i know even less than that. lol!
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778. xcool



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Quoting Patrap:
90L fires off a round in its NW Quad..

Poofage you could say..



lasts gasps
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Quoting reedzone:


Agreed, 18-24 hours then the window is closed in my opinion. Maybe, just maybe 90L makes a comeback by morning. I remember when ALberto was fizzling out in 2006, then made a massive comeback the next morning, almost made Hurricane strength. Just proves mother nature shows us what these sytems will do.
I think that if 90L forms it will be within the next 10 hours, after that, it's over.
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Quoting Weather456:


It looks its healthiest. In fact this system if not named, came very close.



I have a feeling that the NHC might go back on their word about no more special Tropical Weather Outlooks. They already did it at about noon EDT.
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Quoting sarahjola:
does anyone think that this season is going to be all east coast landfalls? that is something i heard and i wanted to know what you all thought about that. where does the Bermuda high have to be for this to happen and is it looking like the high will be pushing storms to the east coast or the gulf coast this season? thanks in advance

This season will NOT be all East coast landfalls. Guaranteed.
Promise you that.
And I know next to nothing about weather.
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Accuweather has a point

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Quoting FIU2010:
xcool, was that the nogaps? what did it do to 90E?

If you talked less, you might notice that a lot of the answers you seek are linked in the blog, on the tropical page, or somewhere in googleland...
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Quoting Levi32:


"Came" makes it sound like you think 90L is past its peak. In my opinion its best chance is now through tomorrow night, while it's sitting near the Gulf Stream and vertically stacked while eventually becoming detached from the frontish trough.


Agreed, 18-24 hours then the window is closed in my opinion. Maybe, just maybe 90L makes a comeback by morning. I remember when ALberto was fizzling out in 2006, then made a massive comeback the next morning, almost made Hurricane strength. Just proves mother nature shows us what these sytems will do.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
18Z GFS ramps up 90E fairly quickly, then forms a 2nd low in the NW Caribbean

While whatever 90E becomes dies out, the GFS up to this point doesn't do much with a 1008mb low north of Honduras

18Z GFS has ran through 114 hours so far


The 2nd low in the Gulf of Honduras would probably not develop with a strong TS or hurricane off the coast of Guatemala. It would be more probable to have the storm make landfall in the Pacific and cross-over, then re-develop. Otherwise the EPAC system would steal most of the energy.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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