Gulf of Mexico oil spill slows its advance towards the coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:21 AM GMT on May 02, 2010

The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon continues to affect the Louisiana coast near the mouth of the Mississippi River, and along the Chandelier Islands off the coast of Mississippi. Strong south to southeast winds blowing at 15 - 25 knots will continue through Monday, which will push oil onto portions of the eastern Louisiana coast from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwards towards the Mississippi border. However, the current trajectory forecasts now show the advance of the oil will slow over the next few days, despite the strong onshore winds. This is probably due to the fact that the shape of the Louisiana coast is setting up a counter-clockwise rotating eddy over the ocean regions between the Mississippi coast and the mouth of the Mississippi River, as seen on the latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast.) Unfortunately, there are no buoys in this region of the Gulf to tell us what the currents are.


Figure 1. The oil spill on May 1, 2010, as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft. Image credit: NASA.

It now appears that the Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida Panhandle coasts will not see significant amounts of oil hitting their shores through at least Monday. On Monday night, the winds shift to southwesterly and weaken as a cold front approaches. The wind shift will allow oil to move eastwards towards Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but at just 1 mph or so. The winds with then shift to offshore (northwesterly) on Tuesday as the cold front passes. This should blow the oil back out to sea a few miles. It is thus possible that only the Louisiana coast will see oil impacts over the coming seven days, though there is substantial uncertainty in this forecast. High pressure is expected to build in late next week, bringing relatively light onshore winds that should allow for slow transport of the oil towards shore. It appears very unlikely that oil will make it into the Loop Current during the next seven days and affect the southern Gulf of Mexico. The long range wind forecast beyond that time is too uncertain to say what might happen at longer time ranges.


Figure 2. Previous location and forecast location for today of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration.


Figure 3. Trajectory forecast for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill for 6 pm CDT Monday May 3, 2010. Image credit: State of Louisiana.

High risk of severe weather tonight
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has outlined a "High Risk" region of severe weather potential over Arkansas tonight, and there are numerous tornadoes currently being reported over Arkansas. Our severe weather expert, Dr. Rob Carver, has radar images of yesterday's strongest storms in his blog today, including images of the tornado north of Little Rock that killed one person and injured several dozen.

Jeff Masters

Uprooted (CalicoBass)
Not sure what this thing is, it is at the old Shoffner Gin area in Shoffner. They were hit by a tornado last night. A Church was destroyed, nothing left of it. Notice the legs of this thing, just pulled them out of the ground.
Uprooted
Tornado captured in Sardis Arkansas. It was twilight when and this was shot at ISO 6400 thus it is noisy. Tornado was about 3/4 miles from us during this shot. I clicked 3 frames and we hauled booty. The tornado crossed the road at this exact place a few moments later. moved on to East End Arkansas where id did extensive damage.
Tornado
Flood damage in Hollow Rock Tennesse (Criqet)
A railroad crossing washed out from torrential rains in Carroll County Tennessee. Over 6 inches of rain logged in with my weather station KTNHOLLO! Many more photos coming.....thanks for viewing
Flood damage in Hollow Rock Tennesse

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Civil Emergency Message

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STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
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TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
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STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
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Quoting Patrap:
90 and 91L were spawned before June 1 2009,with a Bad Flooding event occurring over Fla Memorial Day Weekend.



Patrap, was there not some kinda testing by the gov last year if I recall correctly on the early invests? I remember some controversy and someone wrote some emails to them and it was preliminary or something. Not disagreeing with the events at all.
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Hurricane seasons are like snowflakes, fingerprints and DNA…no two are exactly alike.
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I'm not expecting much in May either. June, we'll see about, but I'm not seeing much out of the ordinary in the 1st 1/2 of the month to make me feel we'll have more tropical wx than usual.

But as usual, we shall see....

Later, all.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If there is not an early season storm, a few bloggers will be very disappointed! I don’t see anything in the first half of May for the Atlantic basin.
maybe after 15th of may when epac fires atlantic follows shortly after
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Some good warming going on in the Western Gulf.

Due to the strong lower level ridging.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Per NWS Nashville, TN as of 8PM CDT 13.56" of rain fell, breaking ALL previous rainfall records for that reporting station.

My daughter Suzette lives 2 miles from the Nashville, TN AP. She said things in Nashville are terrible, flooding and flood damage everywhere!!

Civil Emergency Message

TNC081-031200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1157 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE HICKMAN
COUNTY MAYOR...STEVE GREGORY.

HICKMAN COUNTY IS IN A FLOOD EMERGENCY.

THERE IS NO POWER IN THE COUNTY AND RADIO COMMUNICATIONS ARE OUT.
THERE ARE THREE EMERGENCY SHELTERS AVAILABLE FOR THOSE AFFECTED
BY THE HISTORIC FLOOD. THE SHELTERS ARE BON AQUA METHODIST CHURCH...
FAIRFIELD CHURCH OF CHRIST...AND THE CENTERVILLE CHURCH OF CHRIST.

MANY ROADS ARE FLOODED WITH REPORTS OF MUD SLIDES. RESIDENTS ARE
ASKED TO CONSERVE RESOURCES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

$$

04

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CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 2 2010 /1142 AM EDT SUN MAY 2 2010/

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
TENNESSEE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.

STATE EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISING THAT TRAVEL IS HAZARDOUS
ON MANY INTERSTATE AND HIGHWAYS DUE TO FLOODING IN WEST AND MIDDLE
TENNESSEE.

LOCAL ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ANY LOW-
LYING AREA. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.

MOTORISTS VIOLATING ROADBLOCKS OR ROAD CLOSURES ARE SUBJECT TO
CITATION BY LAW ENFORCEMENT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
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BTW, it looks like there may be more of a high pressure in place in the area to the south of Iceland this week, meaning that winds may favor transport of smoke / ash towards Canada and the US in the event of an eruption....
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If there is not an early season storm, a few bloggers will be very disappointed! I don’t see anything in the first half of May for the Atlantic basin.


If we have anything spin up in May, it will likely be something along the lines of what Tropical Depression One was last year: a relatively weak, marine interest tropical cyclone whose origins are from an upper-level trough moving off the east coast.
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90 and 91L were spawned before June 1 2009,with a Bad Flooding event occurring over Fla Memorial Day Weekend.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hmmmm.... looking at the 24/48/72 forecasts at NHC [TAFB] it seems that area of the LA/MS/AL coast won't be able to buy a break. The front basically bends around the high and just hangs up there, with winds blowing first from the SE, then the S, and eventually the SW.... Hopefully the pattern will change by the end of the week :o(
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If there is not an early season storm, a few bloggers will be very disappointed! I don’t see anything in the first half of May for the Atlantic basin.
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739

That's easy to answer. Depends. There ain't enough oil yet, though.
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
352 PM CDT sun may 2 2010


Short term...
slow moving cold front is approaching lft/hez line. The cold front
will move to bve/gpt line before becoming nearly stationary on Monday.
Radar shows numerous showers developing from west of the MS Delta
to the MS coast associated with approaching jet streak in the Gulf
of Mexico. Thus best chance of showers will be mainly over east
portion of forecast area. A middle level 2 degree cap seems to be
keeping thunderstorms from forming in our area. So have down
graded convection from thunderstorms to showers.


Long term...
will continue to deal with stationary front in our area on Monday.
A weak surface low will develop along the front in southeast la on
Monday producing scattered showers and cloudy skies mainly over
the East Part of the forecast area. Conditions will gradually
improve from the west by Tuesday as the cold front and associated
upper level low which is now in The Four Corners area moves
through the area. This will allow high pressure to build over the
area for the rest of the work week. A backdoor cold front is
expected to move through southeast MS and coastal MS on Saturday
before becoming stationary and defuse on Sunday. This scenario
follows the GFS model fairly closely.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
well if anyone missed the 12z discussion I will post it and here it is


000
AXNT20 KNHC 021806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC...

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N07W 2N24W 4N32W INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 2N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG
46W FROM 3N-9N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N
WITHIN 240 NM WEST OF THE THE SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N AND 60 NM S OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE WESTERNMOST GULF OF MEXICO
ATTACHED TO A 999 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 21N97W. SURFACE WINDS ARE
APPROACHING GALE FORCE CURRENTLY...AS SHOWN BY SEVERAL BUOYS AND
THE 1512 UTC ASCAT PASS. ADDITIONALLY...A WEAK TROUGH IS FOUND
FROM THE LOW SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF...AND INTO THE GULF COAST STATES OF THE US WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. THIS IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY FROM THE POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES. WHILE THE LOW
IS PROJECTED TO QUICKLY FILL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE
SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW DAMPEN...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO RESUME IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVER
THE GULF REACHING A MAX OF 110 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE GULF. HOWEVER...THE MAIN JET CORE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT THE SURFACE...MODERATE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN
RANGING FROM 10-15 KT EASTERLIES NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES UP TO
25 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. RAINFALL WITH SOME
HEAVY SHOWERS ...PRIMARILY FROM LOW-TOPPED CLOUDINESS...ARE
BEING PRODUCED OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS THE WESTERNMOST
EXTENSION OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH
DISSIPATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT
21N84W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...WHILE A CYCLONIC TROUGH AXIS IS
ALONG 11N76W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CONTINUING FARTHER TO
THE NE IN THE ATLANTIC. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS
NEAR PUERTO RICO...THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY TYPICAL
SUBSIDENT...DRY FLOW ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE DOMINATED BY A LARGE AND MODERATE
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1024 MB NEAR 29N65W. MOST OF THE TROPICAL AND
SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC HAS WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT...RATHER
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N36W
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N50W...AT WHICH POINT IT IS ANALYZED A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 19N60W. FROM THERE...THE FEATURE
IS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT REACHES THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH
IN THE ATLANTIC...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BEING PRODUCED
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT/TROUGH AXIS. FORCING BEHIND THE FRONT
IS RATHER WEAK AND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN DISSIPATE. A NEW COLD FRONT SHOULD
REACH OUR NORTHERN BOUNDARY THIS EVENING BETWEEN 45W AND
55W...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY NOT REACH SOUTH OF 25N IN THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 3N-9N ALONG 46W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING ONLY
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...AS IT HAS
MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST DURING OVER THE LAST DAY. THERE
MAY BE A SECOND TROUGH...PERHAPS AN AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE...NEAR
25W BETWEEN 2 AND 12N...THOUGH THE EVIDENCE WAS NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO ADD THIS FEATURE TO THE SURFACE MAP.
ALOFT...WESTERLY
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF A DEEP CYCLONE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. MOST OF THE FLOW IS SUBSIDENT AND DRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EAST OF 40W SOUTH OF 12N...WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ AND SOUTH AMERICA
OFF TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA





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The Dry Air wont come thru till tomorrow night here,and that will turn the Winds out the Nnw and will hopefully keep the Oil Slick shunted just off the coast.
If were lucky.

But that aint been da trend.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm..... wonder why right there and nowhere else....



man.. they never seem to catch a break
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hmmm..... wonder why right there and nowhere else....

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Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


There's a group of us that have been on the volcano blog that have had some good discussions about this (well they have, I just read). :) I was just a casual observer who enjoyed learning about it, but now it's a respite from keeping up with the oil.


I hear that respite thing ! We just don't know what we are really in for and it isn't gonna go away by itself :(

Volcano blog????



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Quoting leo305:


No, there are no storms over the spill, or rain for that matter, only some upper/middle level cloud cover which came from that system that tried to develop in the pacific and pushed into the gulf were the dry air completely killed it off.


er,,Okay Jim.



I guess the thunder,Lightning and rain outside is just a Mirage,..
I gotta go by a Oil Filter ..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
This week's forecast is calling for clear sunny days and temps in the low to mid 80s. I'm expecting 85-87 with a setup the way it is right now.... the beginning of the dry before the wet.....
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I wonder if oil acts to inhibit evaporation, and thus, limit deep convection?
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Quoting Patrap:
NOAA OIL Floater 4

Rainbow Image

Storms over the spill.



No, there are no storms over the spill, or rain for that matter, only some upper/middle level cloud cover which came from that system that tried to develop in the pacific and pushed into the gulf were the dry air completely killed it off.
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Quoting Ossqss:


This is the one they are worried is due and could have been impacted by the current Volcano, click-able pic.

Link

Article from yesterday ... .... ...

Pitt expert keeps eye on second volcano in Iceland
Saturday, May 01, 2010



"Based on the geological record, when one goes, the other does, too," Dr. Ramsey said. "And when it does, Katla generally does the exact same thing, but on a scale multitudes larger. That's what we know."



There's a group of us that have been on the volcano blog that have had some good discussions about this (well they have, I just read). :) I was just a casual observer who enjoyed learning about it, but now it's a respite from keeping up with the oil.
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NOAA OIL SPILL Floater 4

Rainbow Image

Storms over the spill.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
The flooding is serious. All time records have been broken. Eastern middle Tennessee is getting hit bad now, and it looks to be training. I have had 5 inches of rain here in Warren county. There is a lot more coming. The radar is lit up pretty good now.

Just stay off the roads till the water recedes. My daughter is basically stuck at home, the Mayor of Nashville, TN held a news conference asking everyone to stay home off the roads and not to sightsee in the flooded areas. The schools and mass transit system is shut down on Monday.
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Just spoke with my daughter who lives in Nashville, TN. For all intensive purposes, the city of Nashville, TN is SHUT DOWN. There is a small creek 150 yrds from her house which is normally dry. This afternoon at 2 PM, the creek rose up the 4% grade it was 2 feet deep at the base of her house. Which means the lil creek is now 450 feet wide, up to 15 feet deep at the creek.

She was stuck on I-24 yesterday when it flooded. The 20 minute ride home from work took 5 hrs. Now I-24 and portions of I-40 near downtown Nashville, TN is shut down. Her workplace in Franklin, TN is inaccessible due to serious flooding.
The flooding is serious. All time records have been broken. Eastern middle Tennessee is getting hit bad now, and it looks to be training. I have had 5 inches of rain here in Warren county. There is a lot more coming. The radar is lit up pretty good now.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Dakster and IRG, go here and you can see what it looked like before it got dark and the clouds moved in.


This is the one they are worried is due and could have been impacted by the current Volcano, click-able pic.

Link

Article from yesterday ... .... ...

Pitt expert keeps eye on second volcano in Iceland
Saturday, May 01, 2010



"Based on the geological record, when one goes, the other does, too," Dr. Ramsey said. "And when it does, Katla generally does the exact same thing, but on a scale multitudes larger. That's what we know."

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A small flotilla of boats headed out to the coast to lay out oil containment boom, in the hopes of protecting their parish and their livelihoods.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Thanks Dan.. I was watching as the sun set..

On turtles.. I was a friend for nearly 50 years with Ross Witham.. the "Turtle Man" He put a sea turtle in my hand back in 1962 and changed everything for me about turtles. He died on 2004 and I was asked to take his place on the Trustee Advisory Committee at Gilbert's Bar House of Refuge.. where my avatar was shot... a big honor, and large shoes to full. He was one of the earliest to figure out how to hatch and raise turtles and was largely responsible for teaching everyone how to save some of them from extinction.

OBITUARY: P. Ross Witham: Sea Turtle Conservationist (1917-2004)

The turtle tanks and some helpers.. 1962.. I am not in this picture;



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:


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Quoting Skyepony:
Saw 150 water rescues around the Nashville Area today. Hurricane Mills, TN is forecast to break it's all time flood record..

Just spoke with my daughter who lives in Nashville, TN. For all intensive purposes, the city of Nashville, TN is SHUT DOWN. There is a small creek 150 yrds from her house which is normally dry. This afternoon at 2 PM, the creek rose up the 4% grade it was 2 feet deep at the base of her house. Which means the lil creek is now 450 feet wide, up to 15 feet deep at the creek.

She was stuck on I-24 yesterday when it flooded. The 20 minute ride home from work took 5 hrs. Now I-24 and portions of I-40 near downtown Nashville, TN is shut down. Her workplace in Franklin, TN is inaccessible due to serious flooding.
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723

That's an odd gif. Seems like the higher cloud images are updated separately from the rest.
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Some good warming going on in the Western Gulf.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I am talking about the one that was in the 12z Discussion

Missed that discussion so i will take your word for it. I just dont see a wave that is going to last anywhere. The convection off of Africa has already started to die off.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The GOM frontal system is heading directly for the oil spill! Winds from the south and southeast will push the oil toward the Louisiana marshes, Mississippi and Alabama.


The winds have been blowing from the SE to S for the last few days. they will switch tomorrow after FROPA
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The GOM frontal system is heading directly for the oil spill! Winds from the south and southeast will push the oil toward the Louisiana marshes, Mississippi and Alabama.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


You talking about the one going towards South America or another one?


I am talking about the one that was in the 12z Discussion
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Dakster and IRG, go here and you can see what it looked like before it got dark and the clouds moved in.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


Will the oil prevent it from heating up as fast acting as a shield or cause it to heat up faster?


I did a bit of research, as well as asked the opinion of some of the people here. The conclusion is for that of a warming trend, albeit slight, and largely negligible.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Hey IRG, watch it every night. And according to the volcano blog it may get even better soon.

from an Icelandic guy who got it from here.

"According to the news, they now believe that the lava has started to flow close the edge of the glacier."


Just before dark, you could see it steaming from the cliff face, and the runoff water next to that was also steaming. From earlier, the "lava" spewing spot on the right was belching smoke, and looks to have moved to some to the right some.. the "rift" seemed to have spread...this stuff fascinates me.
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718. beell
I guess it depends on how you define a wave. An African Easterly Wave? No way. A surface wave?
Sure. Barely.
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717. Skyepony (Mod)
Saw 150 water rescues around the Nashville Area today. Hurricane Mills, TN is forecast to break it's all time flood record..
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I've always wanted to visit... I had hoped to see the turtles hatch along our coast this year. My friend is involved w/ the save the turtles, oh well - guess I waited too long.

*back to the kitchen I go* LOL
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The Sea Turtle Center on Jekyll Island is well worth visiting and donating to. Great sea turtle hospital.

Link
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It has gone down from 15.7 to that. But it doesn't mean El Nino is holding on or making a comeback right?


right
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It has gone down from 15.7 to that. But it doesn't mean El Nino is holding on or making a comeback right?
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate La Niña episodes, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate El Niño episodes. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

*No, It is just an episode, really doesn't mean the El Niño is coming back, as a matter a fact nothing could save the El Niño at this point.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting indianrivguy:
Hey Dan..

on the volcano...at night, when it is clear, it can be quite spectacular. You see more of the lava because it is lit up red.


Hey IRG, watch it every night. And according to the volcano blog it may get even better soon.

from an Icelandic guy who got it from here.

"According to the news, they now believe that the lava has started to flow close the edge of the glacier."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Strong low-level ridge will heat the Gulf up quite nicely after this front passes and it has an opportunity to build a bit more westward.


Yep and then most models want to break it down(flatten) by the middle of the week and push it well south and east thereafter where it stalls(RIP).

Then by Sunday(and beyond), all the models advertise a more typical -NAO regime(trough builds down the eastern 2/3, ridging out west).
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Quoting Drakoen:
SOI now 13.7


It has gone down from 15.7 to that. But it doesn't mean El Nino is holding on or making a comeback right?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Category 6™

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
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