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Snowmageddon storm clobbers the Mid-Atlantic with 2 - 3 feet of snow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:08 PM GMT on February 06, 2010

It's a very white world in the Mid-Atlantic today, where the historic blizzard of 2010 has buried residents under a record-breaking two to three feet of snow. The storm, which President Obama referred to as "Snowmageddon" in a speech before the Democratic National Committee winter meeting, set the all-time record for heaviest snowfall in Delaware history, thanks to the 26.5" that fell in Wilmington (old state record: 25" in the President's Day storm of 2003). "Snowmageddon" dumped the second heaviest at Philadelphia 28.5"), second heaviest at Atlantic City (18.2"), third heaviest at Baltimore (24.8"), and the 4th heaviest at Washington D.C. (17.8"). Several locations in Maryland have seen over three feet of snow, with the northern Washington D.C. suburb of Colesville receiving 40", and the southern Baltimore suburb of Elkridge receiving 38.3". While the blizzard was not an exceptionally strong storm--the central pressure was a rather unimpressive 986 mb at the height of the blizzard, at 9am EST Saturday--it was an exceptionally wet storm. The melted equivalent precipitation for the blizzard exceeded three inches along its core snow belt. That's an phenomenal amount of moisture for a winter storm. The blizzard formed a very unstable region aloft where thunderstorms were able to build, and there were many reports of thundersnow during the height of the storm. These embedded thunderstorms were able to generate very heavy snow bursts of 2 - 3 inches per hour.

A new storm expected to affect the area Tuesday may add to the immense pile of snow on the ground, though the precipitation may partially fall as rain. With only a slow warm up in store for the mid-Atlantic over the next ten days, the snow will stick around for a while. This is a good thing, since a sudden thaw or heavy rain event could generate considerable flooding, if the three inches of precipitation locked in the snow is suddenly released.

Today's blizzard is the second major snowstorm of 16+ inches to affect the Washington D.C./Baltimore region this winter--the other being the 16.4" storm of December 19 - 20. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the expected return period in the Washington D.C./Baltimore region for snowstorms with more than 16 inches of snow is about once every 25 years. Thus, a one-two punch of two major Mid-Atlantic Nor'easters with 16+ inches of snow in one winter is something that should happen only once every 625 years. Such an event has not happened since the beginning of the historical record in 1870. The numbers are even more impressive for Philadelphia, which has had two snowstorms exceeding 23" this winter. According to the National Climatic Data Center, the return period for a 22+ inch snow storm is once every 100 years--and we've had two 100-year snow storms in Philadelphia this winter. That should happen only once every 10,000 years, in today's climate. Of course, the last ice age was just ending around 12,000 years ago, so this probability number has to be viewed with a some skepticism. Still, the two huge snowstorms this winter in the Mid-Atlantic are definitely a very rare event one should see only once every few hundred years.

Figure 1. "Snowmageddon", the Nor'easter of February 5 - 6, just off the Mid-Atlantic coast, at 12:01 pm EST Saturday 2/6/10. Image credit: NASA GOES project.

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Baltimore:

1. 28.2", Feb 15-18, 2003
2. 26.5", Jan 27-29, 1922
3. 24.8", Feb 5-6, 2010
4. 22.8", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 22.5", Jan 7-8, 1996
6. 22.0", Mar 29-30, 1942
7. 21.4", Feb 11-14, 1899
8. 21.0", Dec 19-20, 2009
9. 20.0", Feb 18-19, 1979
10. 16.0", Mar 15-18, 1892

The top 10 snowstorms on record for Washington, D.C.:

1. 28.0", Jan 27-28, 1922
2. 20.5", Feb 11-13, 1899
3. 18.7", Feb 18-19, 1979
4. 17.8" Feb 5-6, 2010
5. 17.1", Jan 6-8, 1996
6. 16.7", Feb 15-18, 2003
7. 16.6", Feb 11-12, 1983
8. 16.4", Dec 19-20, 2009 (Snowpocalypse)
9. 14.4", Feb 15-16, 1958
10. 14.4", Feb 7, 1936

Top 9 snowstorms for Philadelphia:

1. 30.7", Jan 7-8, 1996
2. 28.5", Feb 5-6, 2010
3. 23.2", Dec 19-20, 2009
4. 21.3", Feb 11-12, 1983
5. 21.0", Dec 25-26, 1909
6. 19.4", Apr 3-4, 1915
7. 18.9", Feb 12-14, 1899
8. 16.7", Jan 22-24, 1935
9. 15.1", Feb 28-Mar 1, 1941

I'll have a new blog on Monday, when I'll discuss if record snow storms are inconsistent with a world experiencing warming. Have a great Super Bowl weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

cleaning up the cars (chills)
cleaning up the cars
Blizzard 2010 (TonyInDC)
Blizzard  2010
winter scenic (gingyb)
From the looks of the cars we may never dig out.
winter scenic
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow. (Proserpina)
Hubby tried to use the snow-blower to clear the snow, unfortunately for him the snow is too deep for the snow-blower. The shovel and his arms will have to do the job.
Hubby Tries to Clear the Snow.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting IKE:


Funny how the sceptics try to prevent any climate discussion on a weather/climate blog. Maybe you guys go to one of those sceptics blog.
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278. IKE
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
That is correct.


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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

It will only get worse ... 2 major blizzards, floods in peru, mexico, cali, saudi arabai, israel ... etc etc etc ...

Pentagon said climate change is a threat now ... WHEN THE HELL DO THEY START TO ACT and stop this madness?

Oh hush, the GOV. is being run (poorly) by a leftist. You may ignore these directives.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Thanks for the maturity.

You and I are capable of discussing these subjects without the childishness. I do appreciate that and am growing fonder of it by the day.

Good Point, I notice that some of the usual AGW
protaganists have been silent, must be the Super
Bowl, or just some reason has seeped in.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Keep it on topic, if its not on topic i will flag it, and you may get a 24hr ban
G'day mate!
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
It is about weather and climate. I agree this study is not a good talking point rightnow. In contrast the arctic sea ice study i posted yesterday is. Will try to focus on those. Maybe this helps in regards to your concerns.

Keep it on topic, if its not on topic i will flag it, and you may get a 24hr ban
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Quoting AussieStorm:

If he continues i will report him and ignore him

oh and good morning IKE
It is about weather and climate. I agree this study is not a good talking point rightnow. In contrast the arctic sea ice study i posted yesterday is. Will try to focus on those. Maybe this helps in regards to your concerns.
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Quoting IKE:

He must dream about GW.
That is correct.
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Quoting IKE:

I don't think he cares. He must dream about GW.

And good morning to you Aussie and AIM.

If he continues i will report him and ignore him

oh and good morning IKE
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270. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

Can you save this for a blog on AGM/CC please, this blog is on Snowmaggedon.

I don't think he cares. He must dream about GW.

And good morning to you Aussie and AIM and everybody else.
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WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules.

2.Stay on topic.

the topic is Snowmaggedon
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Can you save this for a blog on AGM/CC please, this blog is on Snowmaggedon.
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Figure 1. The nine temperature reconstructions (a), and 3 ice core CO2 records (b), used in the study.

Some other variables were fixed, most notably the calibration method relating the proxy and instrumental temperatures (via equalization of the mean and variance for each, over the chosen calibration interval). The authors note that this approach is not only among the mathematically simplest, but also among the best at retaining the full variance (Lee et al, 2008), and hence the amplitude, of the historic T record. This is important, given the inherent uncertainty in obtaining a T signal, even with the above-mentioned considerations regarding the analysis period chosen. They chose the time lag, ranging up to +/- 80 years, which maximized the correlation between T and CO2. This was to account for the inherent uncertainty in the time scale, and even the direction of causation, of the various physical processes involved. They also estimated the results that would be produced from 10 C4 models analyzed by Friedlingstein (2006), over the same range of temperatures (but shorter time periods).

So what did they find?

In the highlighted result of the work, the authors estimate the mean and median of gamma to be 10.2 and 7.7 ppm/ºC respectively, but, as indicated by the difference in the two, with a long tail to the right (Fig. 2). The previous empirical estimates, by contrast, come in much higher–about 40 ppm/degree. The choice of the proxy reconstruction used, and the target time period analyzed, had the largest effect on the estimates. The estimates from the ten C4 models, were higher on average; it is about twice as likely that the empirical estimates fall in the model estimates? lower quartile as in the upper. Still, six of the ten models evaluated produced results very close to the empirical estimates, and the models’ range of estimates does not exclude those from the empirical methods.

Figure 2. Distribution of gamma. Red values are from 1050-1550, blue from 1550-1800.

Are these results cause for optimism regarding the future? Well the problem with knowing the future, to flip the famous Niels Bohr quote, is that it involves prediction.

The question is hard to answer. Empirically oriented studies are inherently limited in applicability to the range of conditions they evaluate. As most of the source reconstructions used in the study show, there is no time period between 1050 and 1800, including the medieval times, which equals the global temperature state we are now in; most of it is not even close. We are in a no-analogue state with respect to mechanistic, global-scale understanding of the inter-relationship of the carbon cycle and temperature, at least for the last two or three million years. And no-analogue states are generally not a real comfortable place to be, either scientifically or societally.

Still, based on these low estimates of gamma, the authors suggest that surprises over the next century may be unlikely. The estimates are supported by the fact that more than half of the C4-based (model) results were quite close (within a couple of ppm) to the median values obtained from the empirical analysis, although the authors clearly state that the shorter time periods that the models were originally run over makes apples to apples comparisons with the empirical results tenuous. Still, this result may be evidence that the carbon cycle component of these models have, individually or collectively, captured the essential physics and biology needed to make them useful for predictions into the multi-decadal future. Also, some pre-1800, temperature independent CO2 fluxes could have contributed to the observed CO2 variation in the ice cores, which would tend to exaggerate the empirically-estimated values. The authors did attempt to control for the effects of land use change, but noted that modeled land use estimates going back 1000 years are inherently uncertain. Choosing the time lag that maximizes the T to CO2 correlation could also bias the estimates high.

On the other hand, arguments could also be made that the estimates are low. Figure 2 shows that the authors also performed their empirical analyses within two sub-intervals (1050-1550, and 1550-1800). Not only did the mean and variance differ significantly between the two (mean/s.d. of 4.3/3.5 versus 16.1/12.5 respectively), but the R squared values of the many regressions were generally much higher in the late period than in the early (their Figure S6). Given that the proxy sample size for all temperature reconstructions generally drops fairly drastically over the past millennium, especially before their 1550 dividing line, it seems at least reasonably plausible that the estimates from the later interval are more realistic. The long tail–the possibility of much higher values of gamma–also comes mainly from the later time interval, so values of gamma from say 20 to 60 ppm/ºC (e.g. Cox and Jones, 2008) certainly cannot be excluded.

But this wrangling over likely values may well be somewhat moot, given the real world situation. Even if the mean estimates as high as say 20 ppm/ºC are more realistic, this feedback rate still does not compare to the rate of increase in CO2 resulting from fossil fuel burning, which at recent rates would exceed that amount in between one and two decades.

I found some other results of this study interesting. One such involved the analysis of time lags. The authors found that in 98.5% of their regressions, CO2 lagged temperature. There will undoubtedly be those who interpret this as evidence that CO2 cannot be a driver of temperature, a common misinterpretation of the ice core record. Rather, these results from the past millennium support the usual interpretation of the ice core record over the later Pleistocene, in which CO2 acts as a feedback to temperature changes initiated by orbital forcings (see e.g. the recent paper by Ganopolski and Roche (2009)).

The study also points up the need, once again, to further constrain the carbon cycle budget. The fact that a pre-1800 time period had to be used to try to detect a signal indicates that this type of analysis is not likely to be sensitive enough to figure out how, or even if, gamma is changing in the future. The only way around that problem is via tighter constraints on the various pools and fluxes of the carbon cycle, especially those related to the terrestrial component. There is much work to be done there.
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Good news for the earth’s climate system?
How much additional carbon dioxide will be released to, or removed from, the atmosphere, by the oceans and the biosphere in response to global warming over the next century? That is an important question, and David Frank and his Swiss coworkers at WSL have just published an interesting new approach to answering it. They empirically estimate the distribution of gamma, the temperature-induced carbon dioxide feedback to the climate system, given the current state of the knowledge of reconstructed temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration, over the last millennium. It is a macro-scale approach to constraining this parameter; it does not attempt to refine
our knowledge about carbon dioxide flux pathways, rates or mechanisms. Regardless of general approach or specific results, I like studies like this. They bring together results from actually or potentially disparate data inputs and methods, which can be hard to keep track of, into a systematic framework. By organizing, they help to clarify, and for that there is much to be said.

Gamma has units in ppmv per ºC. It is thus the inverse of climate sensitivity, where CO2 is the forcing and T is the response. Carbon dioxide can, of course, act as both a forcing and a (relatively slow) feedback; slow at least when compared to faster feedbacks like water vapor and cloud changes. Estimates of the traditional climate sensitivity, e.g. Charney et al., (1979) are thus not affected by the study. Estimates of more broadly defined sensitivities that include slower feedbacks, (e.g. Lunt et al. (2010), Pagani et al. (2010)), could be however.

Existing estimates of gamma come primarily from analyses of coupled climate-carbon cycle (C4) models (analyzed in Friedlingstein et al., 2006), and a small number of empirical studies. The latter are based on a limited set of assumptions regarding historic temperatures and appropriate methods, while the models display a wide range of sensitivities depending on assumptions inherent to each. Values of gamma are typically positive in these studies (i.e. increased T => increased CO2).

To estimate gamma, the authors use an experimental (“ensemble”) calibration approach, by analyzing the time courses of reconstructed Northern Hemisphere T estimates, and ice core CO2 levels, from 1050 to 1800, AD. This period represents a time when both high resolution T and CO2 estimates exist, and in which the confounding effects of other possible causes of CO2 fluxes are minimized, especially the massive anthropogenic input since 1800. That input could completely swamp the temperature signal; the authors’ choice is thus designed to maximize the likelihood of detecting the T signal on CO2. The T estimates are taken from the recalibration of nine proxy-based studies from the last decade, and the CO2 from 3 Antarctic ice cores. Northern Hemisphere T estimates are used because their proxy sample sizes (largely dendro-based) are far higher than in the Southern Hemisphere. However, the results are considered globally applicable, due to the very strong correlation between hemispheric and global T values in the instrumental record (their Figure S3, r = 0.96, HadCRUT basis), and also of ice core and global mean atmospheric CO2.

The authors systematically varied both the proxy T data sources and methodologicalvariables that influence gamma, and then examined the distribution of the nearly 230,000 resulting values. The varying data sources include the nine T reconstructions (Fig 1), while the varying methods include things like the statistical smoothing method, and the time intervals used to both calibrate the proxy T record against the instrumental record, and to estimate gamma.

Full Article
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/good-news-for-the-earths-climate-system/#more -2817
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Quoting WaterWitch11:

footage of mudslide today at flintridge, ca

Good Lord, you can hear the rocks in the water.. scary footage, thanks WW
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Quoting flibinite:
An online friend of mine from W. Virginia, who got about 26" of snow, went out to clear his car and driveway with one of those electric shovels. Given the density of the snow, it was still very hard work for him and he worked up a really big sweat while ending up covered in snow from head to toe.

He went inside and found himself starting to shake and shiver. He took his temperature and it was 96 degrees. After a hot shower, he finally got back to normal temperature.

Be careful out there, everyone! You have all weekend, in most cases, to dig yourself out. Short spurts, then go back inside and normalize. Nothing is as important as your health and safety.


Good morning from Silver Spring, MD! Thanks for the post, for a couple reasons -- I've never heard of electric shovels, haven't seen any around here, and will definitely have to look those up.

The other reason is because you make the health issue very real -- one of our bloggers had to perform EMS duties long-distance from TX yesterday with poster from VA about his brother-in-law. I saw a couple neighbors who looked very pale while shoveling...guys sure can be stubborn (no duh, right?)

Thanks to Skye and Aussie and Unfar for news we can use. All's well here in my neighborhood though there is one cable down; I'm afraid there will be many more car accidents today as people go out on icy roads because of onset of cabin fever. It's amazing how people aren't comfortable in their own homes for a couple days.

ADD: Crazy weatherman, LOL!
Mornin', Ike, everyone...
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262. IKE
From the Mobile,AL. extended discussion....

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260. unf97
Good morning everyone!

First and foremost, I hope all of our WU bloggers in the Mid-Atlantic and NE US are faring O.K. after yesterday's historic blizzard. There will be some major digging out for many, especially the Washington D.C. and Baltimore areas. Please take care for those of you buried in the white stuff on this Super Sunday.

Here at my home location in north Jax, FL this morning, it remains cloudy as the persistent low level stratus deck continues over much of the SEUS behind the departing Low off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The NW flow on the back side of the deepening storm system is bringing in a decent cold air advection. Current temp at 6 a.m. is 40.4 degrees on my thermometer. NW wind still averaging btw 10-15 mph early this morning.

The clouds have been hanging very tough and will for much of the morning. Eventually, drier air and High Pressure building in from the northwest will scour out the clouds and hopefully the sun will come out this afternoon. Expecting max temps to reach the low 50s here today. Expecting near freezing temps tomorrow morning and with winds relaxing tonight, a good bet for frost.

There will be two more systems coming down the pike this upcoming week. The first one moving through Tuesday and the next one Friday into early Saturday. Hopefully, the shortwave on Tuesday will move through quickly and spare the snow-weary residents in the Mid-Atlantic from dealing with nothing like this recent system.

The biggest question is what will happen with the system in the GOM forecast by the models to develop late this week. GFS develops the Low and tracks it much farther south, while the ECMWF keeps the system more like a surface wave, not as strong as the GFS. A lot of uncertainty with the late week system, so plenty of time to watch how the models will handle it with time.

Have a great Super Bowl Sunday everyone. Enjoy the game, which should be a good one!
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Space shuttle launch was scrubbed due to weather. Here's the link for updated info.

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258. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST February 7 2010

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 09 (1003 hPa) located at 9.0S 164.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position POOR based on infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection has been persistent in the last 12 hours and has slightly increased due to diurnal variation. Primary band from the northwest to east is trying to consolidate around the low level circulation center. Low level circulation center is difficult to located at this stage. The system lies under a 250 HPA ridge axis along a surface monsoonal trough in a low sheared environment. Outflow good to the north but restricted elsewhere. System is expected to be steered southeast by the northwesterly deep layer mean winds into an area of decreasing shear.

Most global models has picked up the system and gradually develops it.

Potential for TD 09F to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24-48 hours is MODERATE.
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Rainstorm triggers fatal accidents

* From: NewsCore
* February 07, 2010 9:05PM

A FIERCE overnight rainstorm pounded southern California and triggered a mudslide in the city of La Cañada Flintridge, the Los Angeles Times reported today.

Knee-deep mud and debris were reported in the area, parked cars were swept away and several homes were damaged by the mudslide.

The National Weather Service issued a flash flood warning for the area throughout the rest of today.

Fire officials in Los Angeles County advised residents who live along La Cañada Flintridge's Ocean View Boulevard and its side streets to stay in their homes while crews work to clear away mud, the Times reported.

Fire Inspector Frederic Stowers said the streets in the area were too dangerous to issue evacuation orders to residents.

Three fatalities in two overnight vehicle accidents were blamed on hydroplaning caused by the heavy rain.
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Nation pauses to remember Black Saturday

NO one was named but all were remembered.

Grieving mother Carol Matthews spoke for the families of the 173 victims of the Black Saturday bushfires when she told an anniversary memorial service that those remembering the devastating fires came from no specific place.

"We are scattered across Victoria, across Australia and across the globe," Ms Matthews told more than 2000 people at the multi-faith service at St Pauls Cathedral in central Melbourne.

"One year ago our lives changed forever.

"Our son was killed by the bushfires and our memories and our house were destroyed. On that day, we lost our past, our present and our future."

But there was a future, said Melbourne Archbishop Philip Freier who told the congregation the candles lit to represent each of the 100 or so communities affected by the fires were "a symbol of light and hope for the future".

As bereaved families, survivors, those who lost their homes, dignitaries and representatives of the multiple faiths lit the candles, the names of the affected communities were solemnly read out, from Arthurs Creek to Kinglake, Marysville and Strathewen to Yinnar South.

Some lit the candle in pairs, holding hands for support or clutching the taper together. Others came up in family groups, others stoically solo.

Because none of the 173 individuals were named during the service, those who suffered loss collected white pebbles, upon which they wrote personal messages and left them at the base of the candles.

The dignified service began with a minute's silence and included biblical readings by Governor-General Quentin Bryce and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, while Victorian Premier John Brumby read a poem written by Rhonda Abotomey, who lost a brother and other family members in the February 7, 2009, fires.

State Governor David de Kretser and federal and state opposition leaders Tony Abbott and Ted Baillieu lit candles.

Joan Davey, who lost her son, daughter-in-law and two granddaughters, clung to Ms Abotomey after they read a prayer for those who died.

The head of the Bushfire Reconstruction and Recovery Authority Christine Nixon said there could be no under-estimation of the "enormous pain, trauma and grief" thousands of Victorians had experienced since Black Saturday.

"We are here to remember all those who lost their lives," she said.

"The worst national disaster in Australia's history has left an indelible scar on families, friends, neighbours and relatives and strangers across the world.

"People have seen and heard things they hope never to see again."

Several hundred members of bereaved families and those from bushfire-hit towns filled the front 20 pews of the cathedral and many were then heading back home to remember the day with their own communities.
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the shuttle is scrubbed due to ceilings being below 5k and launch return weather not being above limits. they didn't authorize a waiver below that due to the cloud level being dynamic and they are at the very end of their launch window. they will try again at 418am monday morning unless there is a 48hr slide of launch time due to weather. all well, we will try again tomorrow!!
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is anyone up watching the shuttle launch? it is to be the last shuttle launch at night!!! just wondering - hoping to see it. I have nasatv on - if you want to see it, the link I have up is:


i am going to go brave the deep night and hopefully see it!!!
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sleep tight
sleep all night
in the moon light with the stars so bright
don't let the colts win, right?!
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footage of mudslide today at flintridge, ca
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

we are of chart - passed 55 ...
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

we are of chart - passed 55 ...

Is this the way this blog works,works,workss!!!
Why don't you all just hit your head in the wall!! It mite do better
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Hey, you can get a great view of Mars overhead right now if you have clear skies. One good thing about HIGW (Human-Induced Global Warming) -- if we have indeed figured out how to warm our planet up, we could take those learnings over to Mars and try it there too -- move out from one neighborhood when it gets too hot & crowded and start the same process down the street where it is cold and empty! ;-)

National Geographic actually has a pretty cool article this month about terraforming Mars over about 1,000 years, via bombing it with redirected comets to increase the H20 level on the planet, and then creating giant CO2 & methane "atmosphere" factories. Only problem with the plan -- might cost a few bucks. Anyone got an extra $100 trillion?
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245. 789
snow pretty deep for here in ohio towing services very busy
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I'll update the snow totals in this post on Super Sunday, and have a new blog on Monday. I'll discuss if record snow storms are inconsistent with a world experiencing global warming. Have a great Super Bowl weekend, everyone!

ok but you get leve the global warming part out of it
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It occurs to me that if DC gets enough snow our elected officials would have to stay in one place and actually sit and talk to each other and maybe come up with good legislation
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Rain is a help more than hindrance to NSW

FLOOD warnings have been issued for several rivers in northwestern NSW and on the state's north coast as a low pressure weather system continues to bring heavy rain.

Moderate river flooding has isolated rural properties in the state's central west and northeast, but farmers have welcomed the weather that brought up to 200mm of rain to some areas in less than two days.

The State Emergency Service (SES) was focused on the Castlereagh River at Coonamble, in the NSW central west, with moderate flood levels expected to peak on Monday evening.

``The township of Coonamble will be fine, but it will isolate more rural communities in that area,'' SES spokesman Terry Pappas told AAP.

``The damage that has occurred is probably through the roads - it's fairly moderate actually.''

Margie and Bill Pye, who own 16,000ha east of Coonamble, said previous storms had flooded their property, but the 200mm of rain they received was well dispersed over the previous week.
``It's been good soaking rain, more so than what it was back then,'' Ms Pye told AAP.

Doug Batten, mayor of Gilgandra, south of Coonamble, said the rain was great news for farmers.

``Two hundred millimetres since Christmas Day,'' he told Fairfax Radio Network on Monday.

``This year we had the offer of a good harvest, but we just missed out on some vital rain in August. This sort of rain and this sort of ground moisture will give us a good start moving into 2010.''

The Tweed area, on the state's far north coast, experienced minor flash flooding at Murwillumbah where 145mm of rain fell on Sunday night and Monday morning.

Further south, in the Port Macquarie area, similar rainfalls brought minor flooding to the Hastings River after more than 80mm of rain fell in just three hours on Monday afternoon.

Emergency workers were most concerned about holidaymakers who are not used to flood conditions and might risk recreational activities on affected rivers.

``When the tides pick up a little bit, know that it is possible floodwater,'' Mr Pappas said.

The SES had received more than 180 calls for assistance since Monday morning in the central west, mid-north and far-north coastal areas.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) also issued flood warnings on Monday for the Culgoa, Bokhara and Paroo rivers in the northwest, but the rivers peaked at moderate levels on Monday.

Major flooding is expected at Kenebree, 40km northwest of Brewarrina, where the Culgoa River was expected to peak on Wednesday.

The SES said the situation would have been worse if the affected areas were not already in drought conditions.

``If it was any other normal part of the state, this amount of water would have definitely caused major flooding,'' Mr Pappas said.

``So it was a bit of a saving grace that it was sort of drought-stricken, because the ground absorbed 75 per cent of that water.''

Sydney was battered with more than 40mm of rain on Monday morning, which caused road closures due to flooding.

The SES has seven helicopters available for rescue, resupply and reconnaissance, at Dubbo, Narrabri and Cobar.

The Bureau of Meteorology says a low pressure trough extends from inland Queensland to the NSW south coast.

A low has developed over northwestern NSW within this trough and is drawing on warm humid air, generating rain across many districts.

The low is expected to weaken later in the week, but the trough is expected to remain, bringing further rain and unsettled conditions to most of northern NSW.
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238. Skyepony (Mod)
Looks like the surge from the storm exiting was 2 ft lower than forecast..



CA has some snow totals of 20+inches

Some snow accumulation in GA

Here's one from yeasterday..



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Current 10 day forecast GFS result from 0 Z run...wash, rinse, and repeat?

Sorry for the drive-by, L8R.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:

Steps of human-induced climatic warming:

1. Human activity increases CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere
2. Global warming due to CO2 is predicted
3. Global warming is observed
4. Environmental movement begins
5. Warming is attributed to anthropogenic causes
5. Fluctuations in climate take place
7. Severe weather events possibly linked to global warming are observed
8. Species extinction due to climatic factors increase
9. Political lobbyists and oil companies plot how to undermine the data
11. Deaths directly due to climate-related factors increase
12. Climate change science receives more scientific funding
13. Ice shelf collapses and glacial retreats take place
14. Oil companies merge and form a giant coalition
15. More dire predictions are made by climate scientists in a series of warnings
16. IPCC releases assessment reports
17. Extremes of climate increase in intensity and frequency
18. More complex climate forcings are revealed
19. Positive feedback scenarios proposed
20. Lobbyists influence global Conservative governments
21. Tipping points in global climate are predicted and begin to pass
22. Political lobbyists control government of the US
23. Global warming increases in temperature start to become level
24. Public opinion on climate change is muddled
25. Wars over oil and those related to climate change take place
26. A hurricane in Brazil and temporary stalling of the Gulf Stream are observed
27. Methane and CO2 releases from permafrost observed
28. Intense storms develop and kill thousands of people worldwide
29. Global warming skepticism increases
30. Arctic sea ice reaches unpredicted and unprecedented low
31. Global economic recession hits
32. Many global conferences are held to minimize effects of global warming but fail due to lobbysists
33. Public concern over global warming dwindles
34. Methane clathrate releases not expected to occur until the end of the century are observed in multiple locations
35. A self-reinforcing El Nino cycle takes place in the Pacific Ocean
36. Global protests for climate action take place during Copenhagen Conference
37. Skeptical hackers create email hacking incident
38. Copenhagen Conference fails to produce a real goal
39. Environmental activism increases
40. Storms cause widespread expansion and subsequent weakening of El Nino warm pool
41. El Nino pattern spawns severe winter storms over the US, Europe, East Asia and India
42. Global warming skepticism increases due to cold weather
43. Gulf Stream temporarily stalls and breaks into loops
44. Humboldt Current temporarily bisected by southeast extension of El Nino warm pool
45. Hundreds of people are killed by winter storms in Europe
46. Flooding takes place in Brazil due to warm water
47. Gulf Stream temporarily diverts west of Greenland for first time in satellite history
48. Floods occur in Middle east due to European storms
49. Gulf Stream diverts west of Greenland again
50. Floods occur in Peru due to El Nino
51. Pine Island Bay tipping point revealed
52. Hurricane-like storms develop over Gulf Stream in a gyre-free Atlantic Ocean
53. El Nino warm pool expands toward Antarctica
54. Warm anomalies enter Pine Island Bay and the two major Antarctic Ice Shelves
55. More major storms hit the US and develop over the North Atlantic


A sort of simplicified version of global warming-related effects to date.

we are of chart - passed 55 ...
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Quoting SouthALWX:

hopefully technology will have advanced in a way to negate any NEO from impacting in any disastrous or life extinguishing way by that time. certainly a race against an unknown clock

If you go to spaceweather.com com you'll notice that all the NEO potential hazards for this month all have a designation of 2010. I may be wrong (and please educate me if I am) but I believe that means that they were all discovered this year or very recently. Kind of scary
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Personally, I prefer the titles SnOMG or Snowpocalypse, the latter of which being the more popular one in the D.C. area blogging and Twittering...
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An online friend of mine from W. Virginia, who got about 26" of snow, went out to clear his car and driveway with one of those electric shovels. Given the density of the snow, it was still very hard work for him and he worked up a really big sweat while ending up covered in snow from head to toe.

He went inside and found himself starting to shake and shiver. He took his temperature and it was 96 degrees. After a hot shower, he finally got back to normal temperature.

Be careful out there, everyone! You have all weekend, in most cases, to dig yourself out. Short spurts, then go back inside and normalize. Nothing is as important as your health and safety.

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231. Skyepony (Mod)
& now for houses destroyed by mud today..

Thunderous mudslides damaged dozens of homes, swept away cars and pushed furniture into the streets of the foothills north of Los Angeles on Saturday as intense winter rain poured down mountains denuded by a summer wildfire.

No injuries were reported but residents and emergency responders were caught off guard by the unpredicted ferocity of the storm, which damaged more than 40 homes and dozens of vehicles.

Some 540 homes were eventually evacuated at the foot of the San Gabriel Mountains after heavy rains overflowed debris basins, carried away cement barricades and filled houses with mud and rocks.

& there's the 4 houses near Maggie Valley in NC
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230. Skyepony (Mod)
Not even the presidential motorcade was able to navigate the city's streets unscathed. An ambulance hit an SUV in the motorcade before President Obama's entourage left the White House on Saturday morning to address the Democratic National Committee at a hotel several blocks away. No one was hurt.

While the president normally portrays himself as a hardy Chicagoan accustomed to bad weather, even he seemed impressed by the storm's ferocity. He called the blizzard "Snowmaggedon."
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Quoting SouthALWX:

hopefully technology will have advanced in a way to negate any NEO from impacting in any disastrous or life extinguishing way by that time. certainly a race against an unknown clock
Talking about funding science.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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