Ida lashing the Gulf Coast; no change in strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 AM GMT on November 10, 2009

Tropical Storm Ida is pounding the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle with high winds, huge waves, and heavy rain. At 6 pm EST, the Mobile, AL NWS office reported that coastal flooding had begun on Dauphin Island and at Fort Pickens in the Florida Panhandle. Surf heights of 5 - 8' are expected tonight on Dauphin Island as Ida storms ashore, and heights of 10 - 15' are possible from Fort Morgan, Alabama to Destin, Florida. Sustained winds of 40 mph were reported at buoy 42007 22 nm miles south of Biloxi, MS at 4:50 pm EST, and winds of 40 mph, gusting to 51 mph, were recorded at Dauphin Island, AL, at 7:06 pm EST.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the Mobile, AL radar shows that up to four inches of rain has fallen over the Louisiana bird's foot of the Mississippi River. Heavy rains are falling in MS, AL, and FL, and will exceed four inches in many locations.

The highest surface winds seen by the Hurricane Hunters since 3 pm have been 70 mph. Infrared satellite loops show that the big thunderstorm blow-up responsible for the small patch of hurricane-force winds recorded at 3 pm this afternoon has waned, and it is unlikely Ida has any hurricane-force winds.

The intensity forecast for Ida
There is no change to the intensity forecast for Ida. The high wind shear of 40 knots currently affecting the storm is forecast to increase to 50 knots by midnight, when the center of Ida should be crossing the coast. With Ida now over waters near 24°C, some weakening is to be expected before landfall. We can't rule out the possibility of an isolated tornado when Ida makes landfall, but the Storm Prediction Center Discussion maintains that the airmass in place over the Gulf Coast is relatively stable, and prospects for an appreciable severe weather threat appear low. Winds of tropical storm force will be extend from Southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle (Figure 2), but will not extend very far inland.


Figure 2. Cumulative wind forecast for Ida, issued by the HWRF model at 1 pm EDT today, 11/09/09. The HWRF forecasts that winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, dark green colors) will affect a swath of ocean from the tip of the Louisiana bird's foot to the coast near Alabama. Tropical storm force winds of 34 - 50 knots (39 - 57 mph) will affect a larger region, but will not penetrate very far inland. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.

The storm surge forecast for Ida
Tides are almost 5.0' above normal at Shell Beach, LA (on the east side of New Orleans), 2.2 feet above normal at Dauphin Island, AL, and 1.7 feet above normal at Pensacola, FL (Figure 3). NHC is calling for a storm surge of 3 - 5 feet above ground level, which is a reasonable forecast even if Ida weakens further. A large stretch of coast will be subject to very high water levels for an extended period of time today and tomorrow, with battering waves on top of the surge likely to cause a significant coastal erosion event.




Figure 3. Observed vs. predicted water levels at three coastal stations. Top: Shell Beach, LA (just east of New Orleans); middle: Dauphin Island, Alabama; bottom: Pensacola, FL. The green line shows how high above normal the water is. For Shell Beach, it was 4.9 feet above normal at 6 pm CST, 2.2 feet at Dauphin Island, and 1.7 feet at Pensacola. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Links to follow:
U.S. Severe Weather Page
Wundermap for the Gulf Coast of Alabama.
Long-range radar out of New Orleans, LA.
Coastal observations from the University of South Alabama.
Coastal observations from LSU.

Update on portlight.org charity errorts
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is gearing up to respond to any disaster needs from Tropical Storm Ida, and has sent a self-sufficient kitchen capable of serving 2000 meals per day to the Florida Panhandle region. They have another mobile kitchen ready to respond, if needed, as well as a truck filled with durable medical equipment and clinical/surgical supplies. Donations are welcome!

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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I thought central FL would get some rain from IDA.....???
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749. jipmg
Quoting TampaSpin:
I sure am glad the Tropical Season was over September 1st


LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
Once we get Ida's moisture out of the way,should be a very quiet period for the US.


Hey my New Englander friend....YOU might be getting one heck of a snow storm from IDA
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I sure am glad the Tropical Season was over September 1st
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746. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey ike i se yer still here so ya must a fared ok


Yeah...came out okay. Never lost electricity.
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Experimental COAMPS finally ran a model on Ida but you can use it to take a look at its depection of 98L.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting biff4ugo:
I'm haveing a hard time seeing what is left of Ida To turn east.
Still hoping it will bring several buckets of rain to NE Florida.

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.
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Quoting jipmg:
TD ida is moving ENE, I say TD because there are 0 reports of sustained winds above 30mph
nuttin but low pressure now some rains
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Quoting peejodo:

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.


Well actually, on average October and November is the dry season, tha average is only 2.00 inches both months, but then it bumps up to 3.50 to 4.50 a month average for december through Febuary. hen it goes downhill till second half of may again.

however, it was even a lot drier then normal for october.

But im not complaining, over here on the west coast of Florida. My year to date is 56.99, this is the first time in 4 years we have actually had around average rain year to date.... lol and we only had about 4.00 up untill may... so about 50 to 52 fell just between May and september...
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741. jipmg
TD ida is moving ENE, I say TD because there are 0 reports of sustained winds above 30mph
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ida bye bye ida
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Quoting weatherg8r:


I hope we get more than the sprinkle we got last night! :)

We got nothing in Covington, straight north of NOLA. And that is fine by me. Still drying out from Sept/Oct.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting peejodo:

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.


I hope we get more than the sprinkle we got last night! :)
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Looks like actual landfall of a circulation center is about right now in Baldwin County...assuming these obs can be trusted.


(Full size, click!)
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Once we get Ida's moisture out of the way,should be a very quiet period for the US.
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hey ike i se yer still here so ya must a fared ok
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AOI/XX/XL
MARK
24.8N/60.3W
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726. i wouldn't hold my breath! LOL
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Quoting biff4ugo:
I'm haveing a hard time seeing what is left of Ida To turn east.
Still hoping it will bring several buckets of rain to NE Florida.

Please don't close the gate on that rain. Let a little get to east central. LOL I only got 0.49" for the month of Oct. It seemed like the dry season started early.
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Bring it on, just bring it with rain in tow. We need one or two soakers before dry season sets in.


Correction: We are in the driest months now, it gets wetter again as the winter arrives, sure not like July, but not dry enough to be "dry season" which then returns in the spring however.

Also, we are in moderate El Nino, should get tons of rain this winter, as well as some impressive severe weather events...



Then again I live on the west coast in North central Florida, if you live in south Florida, maybe winter is drought for you too...


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Quoting TexInsAgent:


I want a cooked longhorn for Thanks Giving

Whoop!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Hey did everyone leave? I refresh 4 times and nothing. I guess ev1 taking a much need rest. Thank you ev1 for your input on this storm. She was a strange one.

Sheri
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Quoting pearlandaggie:
LOL @ 683. how appropriate :)

just one question, though...why
does everyone like turkey so much? i know it's traditional, but it's
not like the bird is really that great (i know, i know...this is
heresy!). my mother-in-law ruined us with prime rib one
Thanksgiving...never wanted turkey since! LOL


I want a cooked longhorn for Thanks Giving
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It's been an interesting couple of days but it's over now and time to get on with life. See ya'll next May. Happy Thanksgiving, Merry Christmas and all in between. Take care and enjoy.
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I believe NE Florida will feel some of the wind and rain this evening and tomorrow....maybe sooner

HAPPY VETERAN'S DAY tomorrow. Let's not forget those who have served and are serving in so many ways.....

What do you all think of the Low NE of PR???
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Anyone here interested in volunteer rain data reporting? We need more volunteers to join CoCoRaHs.org. Our data is used by weather forecasters, government agencies, universities and many more entities. It's simple. Put up a sanctioned rain gage and report the contents once a day. If you are interested, please visit CoCoRaHs.org to join. Thanks.
Any questions, please email me at sandhockey@yahoo.com
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722. IKE
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I brine my turkey then inject it with mojo criollo (cuban marinade) and then smoke it for about 8-10 hours (depending on size) and it is SOOO flavorful and juicy everybody raves about it. Pretty cool way to make a turkey.

Ida is thumbing her nose at us! We can't BUY rain this year!!


Sounds pretty good. When's dinner?

I think Ida is about to be RIP-ed to a remnant low...

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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Just looking at the latest ECMWF run. Looks like late next week....a cool down...maybe down to central and possibly south Florida.


I brine my turkey then inject it with mojo criollo (cuban marinade) and then smoke it for about 8-10 hours (depending on size) and it is SOOO flavorful and juicy everybody raves about it. Pretty cool way to make a turkey.

Ida is thumbing her nose at us! We can't BUY rain this year!!
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719. IKE
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
Well Hubby just made it to the shop and it has water all in it. He said it not really deep but there is water in it and that makes for a mess. When it starts going done time to get the squeegees out and pressure washers. Can we say fun. LOL

Sheri


Agree...sorry to hear that.
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718. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Who?






I'll have an update forecast late this morning.


LOL....
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715. sorry to hear that....that sux.
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713. who? your feet don't fit a limb! LOL :)
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Well Hubby just made it to the shop and it has water all in it. He said it not really deep but there is water in it and that makes for a mess. When it starts going done time to get the squeegees out and pressure washers. Can we say fun. LOL

Sheri
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712. i would tend to concur.
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712. IKE
Quoting pearlandaggie:
707. i could see the moisture from Ida feeding into 98L, but do you think that the circulations would merge? seems like low pressure systems tend not to do that...seems that the stronger one usually robs energy from the weaker one. or am i just plain wrong? :)


Think it will be 98L's circulation. StormW might have more info.
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I am sure Honduras, Nicaragua do not want to see anything come of this.
anyway, now for another grueling day!
have a good one all.
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710. IKE
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707. i could see the moisture from Ida feeding into 98L, but do you think that the circulations would merge? seems like low pressure systems tend not to do that...seems that the stronger one usually robs energy from the weaker one. or am i just plain wrong? :)
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708. Relix
98L is giving us in PR heavy rains =P
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707. IKE
Latest GFS mergers 98L with the convection from Ida off of the east coast of the USA. Potent system....
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702. i suppose that's possible, though it doesn't seem that likely to occur. but, i'm just a dumb engineer, so how would i know :)
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g'morning, looks like panama city and tallahassee are getting some more of IDA this morning.
Link
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I like the forecast.
Thanks IKE.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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