Hurricane Ida hits Nicaragua

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:31 PM GMT on November 05, 2009

Hurricane Ida intensified at one of the fastest rates on record, and plowed ashore this morning in central Nicaragua as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. It took just 24 hours from when the first advisory was issued for Tropical Depression Eleven until Ida reached hurricane strength. Since reliable satellite measurements began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours--Hurricane Florence of 2000, Hurricane Erin of 1995, Hurricane Bonnie of 1992, Hurricane Earl of 1986, Hurricane Kate of 1985, and Hurricane Kendra of 1978. Ida now joins that short list of rapidly intensifying storms.

Ida will dump very heavy rains of 10 - 15 inches over northern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras over the next two days, which will likely make it the deadliest storm of the 2009 hurricane season. However, Ida is a relatively small storm, and has not tapped the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture. I think the NHC forecast of 15 - 20 inches of rain is overdone. The greatest rainfall disasters in Honduras history--caused by Hurricane Fifi of 1974 and Hurricane Mitch of 1998--were caused because these were large storms that were able to pull in moisture from both the Atlantic and Pacific. Ida will not approach these disasters in magnitude.


Figure 1. Microwave "weather radar in space" image of Ida at landfall this morning, at 6:17 am EST. Image credit Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The forecast for Ida
Ida will likely spend a full two days over Nicaragua and Honduras, and there is a chance that Ida will dissipate. The HWRF and ECMWF don't show much surviving of Ida after crossing into the Western Caribbean. However, the other models like Ida's chances of surviving, and it is the case that the storm's core will be tracking over relatively low elevation land (Figure 2), increasing the chances that Ida can survive the crossing intact. If Ida survives the crossing and emerges into the Western Caribbean on Saturday, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots and warm waters await it, and some modest strengthening is likely. A trough of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend should be able to propel Ida northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. The long-term fate of Ida if it reaches the Gulf of Mexico is hard to guess at this point, though the odds are against Ida hitting the U.S. as a hurricane, due to high wind shear.


Figure 2. Projected track from the 10am EST NHC advisory from Thursday, 11/05/09, overlaid on a topographical map of Central America. Image credit: Wikipedia.

Looking at the past to predict the future
Perhaps the best way to estimate the chances of Ida surviving the crossing of Nicaragua and Honduras is to look at past storms that have followed similar tracks, to see if they dissipated or not. History favors Ida surviving the crossing. The two best analogue storms occurred in 1906 and 1908. Hurricane Eight of October 10, 1906, hit Nicaragua as a Category 3 hurricane, spent two days over land, weakening to a tropical storm, then emerged into the Western Caribbean and re-intensified into a Category 3 hurricane that hit Cuba and South Florida. On the other hand, Hurricane Nine of October 18, 1908, which hit Nicaragua as a Category 2 hurricane, dissipated after spending 1.5 days over land. Three other weaker systems have followed paths similar to Ida's, and all survived the crossing and re-intensified once over the Western Caribbean. Tropical Storm Gert of 1993 hit as a 40 mph tropical storm, spent two days over land, and survived to re-intensify to a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Alma of June 1996 hit Nicaragua as a tropical depression, spent two days over land, and survived. Alma later intensified into a major Category 3 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Six of 1940 hit Nicaragua as a 45 mph tropical storm, spent 1.5 days over land, and survived the crossing. So, of the five storms to follow a path similar to Ida's projected path, four survived to re-intensify over the Western Caribbean.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting stormsurge39:
It is amazing how peoples opinions change in less than 24 hours! It is forecasted to almost die and jump right back into the fuel! sheesh


I expect there may be a chance of it returning but it might be a remnant low once it reaches the sea late Friday early sat.
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Quoting ElConando:


That and the fact that it will be covering more land I think in 36 hours the season could be nearly over. Thank goodness... but I shall keep an eye for now.
24 eye days left then a rest for some time
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IDA was only a 75MPH hurricane when she went inland about 9hrs ago.....i have seen canes alot stronger look alot worse when inland 9hrs. IDA is really just barely inland as the Right side of her circulation is still over water......I'm not saying the COC is over water i'm simply saying its got great banding still occuring over the Caribbean. She is very well in tact yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
i think someone was asking for something like this...
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It is amazing how peoples opinions change in less than 24 hours! It is forecasted to almost die and jump right back into the fuel! sheesh
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1133. Patrap
Day RGB to Night IR,..

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
goodnight IDA

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
don't be surprized if its nothing but a naked swirl by morning


That and the fact that it will be covering more land I think in 36 hours the season could be nearly over. Thank goodness... but I shall keep an eye for now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Did anybody really expect Ida to look good over land??? Once it gets over water with LLC intact then well see a show again!
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Unless its speeds up i've made up my mind it WILL be a remnant low before emerging in the Caribbean. Unless central America is kind to tropical depressions I feel this will happen.
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Quoting ElConando:


Actually Ida is to the left of the forecast cone. Remember they don't change track in the intermediate advisories just position.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if it degenerate into a remnant low over land. Dunno about dissipation though.
don't be surprized if its nothing but a naked swirl by morning
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
20 mph tropical disturbance
Maybe not. Some folks were surprised she became a hurricane while interacting with land overnight. JMO
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Quoting Drakoen:
Winds already all the way down to 40mph lol. I wonder what it will be tomorrow this time when it is still overland.
20 mph tropical disturbance
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
the nhc thinks that Ida will move NNE on forecast track I think it will move ne and move back into the caribbean sea by tomorrow around 7am near 13.7n 83.2w


Actually Ida is to the left of the forecast cone. Remember they don't change track in the intermediate advisories just position.

I actually wouldn't be surprised if it degenerate into a remnant low over land. Dunno about dissipation though.
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1124. unf97
Quoting Patrap:



The GOM System is starting to Jell and increase in convection.



Lots of moisture in the Southern Gulf / Bay of Campeche area. I've been busy today and I haven't seen the latest model runs about this area. However, I did note in his analysis on the blog earlier today that Dr. Masters did not make any mention of the BOC disturbance. I still think that this area will definitely be a factor in the coming days with moisture pulling northward from this system along the Upper Gulf Coast region. Also, the BOC disturbance could definitely play a significant role with the future progress of Ida later this weekend.
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1123. amd
Looking at the latest satellite images, the current strength of Ida, and the motion of the storm in the past three hours (0.2 N, 0.3 W), I have serious doubts about whether Ida survives its land interaction.

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1122. Drakoen
Quoting reedzone:
Ida was expected to weaken like this, no surprise.. It should manage to keeps it's LLC in tact enough to strengthen over the Carribean around Saturday/Sunday.


It was suppose to be at 40 knots at 06z.
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You can see the possible kicker of IDA in S. California going through Nevada....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Ida is near the nex TFP
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the nhc thinks that Ida will move NNE on forecast track I think it will move ne and move back into the caribbean sea by tomorrow around 7am near 13.7n 83.2w

Link
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Ida was expected to weaken like this, no surprise.. It should manage to keeps it's LLC in tact enough to strengthen over the Carribean around Saturday/Sunday.
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1116. Drakoen
Winds already all the way down to 40mph lol. I wonder what it will be tomorrow this time when it is still overland.
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1115. aquak9
Quoting albert0826:
I want it to hit Florida.


(taking the bait)

Why??
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I want it to hit Florida.
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Quoting P451:


These images are great, but, damn, they are too slow - you can't see what is happening. So I sped it up.

thats ok p451 i have the faster run on my computer its slow when i upload to WU
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Ida is left of the mid line.
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There goes IDA off the NORTH EAST coast already....oh no that FRED also!
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Still a while to go for Ida on land for Ida.
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Quoting P451:


I might as well pile on as well. Check the date, check the W coordinates, and know that is Fred.

So, buddy, whatcha drinking this evening? Care to share?

hehehe.



Actually i do have something extra in the Cool Aid.......LOL
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1108. jipmg
yikes, 40mph TS now..
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Quoting Weather456:
I think Tampa is giving the downcasters hope.

:)


LOL.....to my embarressment it is fixed on my site.....LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
700 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009

...IDA NOW BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...HEAVY RAINFALL STILL THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...85 KM...SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IDA WILL
MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH.
..65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND
IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT. SOME
RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 7
INCHES ALONG THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...AND THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER REGIONS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...13.5N 84.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS



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I think Tampa is giving the downcasters hope.

:)
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Why are people putting up old Fred discussions?

Life ain't easy for guy named "Fred", just joking :)
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Quoting charlottefl:
All I can say is never underestimate a storm in the Caribbean. When it dissipates it dissipates, until then it bears watching.
+1
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1090. I can see that you both feel deeply and care so very much about our country.
Sir, thank you for your own and your family's service...above and beyond.
WWll is a good person, too, and certainly helped me out with some info the other day.
We are all sad...anger is just a cover for two other emotions, loss and fear -- which we've experienced yet again today.
God bless you both. Peace.
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I think Ida is on the coastline of Nicaragua now at around 13.5N/83.6W.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
#1090...no problem. I'm just very upset about this incident as I have very strong ties to Ft Hood. I'm not trying to be boss/mother or anything like that to anyone on WU, like I've been accused. Believe me I fought for the freedom of speach that Sheri refers to. Did she? Maybe not. But people like her are quick to tell everyone about their freedoms w/out really knowing the sacrifice made for her and other to express it. I'm very proud to have been given the opportunity to serve my country . This is a great place to live and now I'm a weather fanatic and enjoy this blog. I apologize if I offended anyone. Not the intent. This is the first time I have gone off like this in 6 years as a member. Forgive me.
God speed to those injured and God Bless and pray for the families/friends of those killed.
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Quoting charlottefl:
All I can say is never underestimate a storm in the Caribbean. When it dissipates it dissipates, until then it bears watching.


Absolutely right..until the spin is gone IDA will be a player
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I guess NNW at 3 is the correct one?
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All I can say is never underestimate a storm in the Caribbean. When it dissipates it dissipates, until then it bears watching.
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LACOAST ...come up with something original instead of "it will die there" ..You are wating space on the blog and you iritate me with at least 10 blog entries that say the same thing....
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Quoting TampaSpin:


YEP......LOL


half my post got eatin, i had a emocon of a dunce cap. oh well.
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Quoting IKE:
Hello Ike. Based upon info available I am of the belief this will not be a serious storm. Lots of things going against being a cat 3+ intensity. However it could be something like an "Allison" with lots of rain and flooding. Obviously very early to determine. Any thoughts? Thanks.
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Txwxchaser your are right and i should have not commented.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Looks to be on track, east of the mountainous area, NNW movement, should emerge intact moving north. The GFDL is crazy, are they feeding appropriate data in that model? CMC is everywhere, GFS gives a likely track then a frontal punch puts IDA spinning backwards in the gulf for a knockout blow, thats possible, but unlikely, more likely a NE hairpin. ECMWF and Nogaps are too far left, at least Nogaps now recognizes it now. Tampa or SW florida might get some tropical weather possibly storm force, we will see. Just got to see what happens after it exits land right now.
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Quoting P451:


These images are great, but, damn, they are too slow - you can't see what is happening. So I sped it up.



Well its moving.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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