Typhoon Mirinae less destructive than feared for Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:15 PM GMT on October 31, 2009

Typhoon Mirinae blew through the Philippines' Luzon Island yesterday as a borderline Category 1 to 2 typhoon with top winds of 95 - 100 mph. Due to the rapid forward motion of the typhoon and a sharp decrease in the storm's organization just prior to landfall, rainfall amounts from the typhoon were less than six inches over Luzon. The eye of Mirinae passed over the capital of Manila, where winds peaked at minimal tropical storm force, 39 mph, with gusts to 56 mph, at 6 am local time Saturday. Nearby weather stations recorded sustained winds as high as 44 mph, and rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches. Though Mirinae is being blamed for at least 11 deaths, with 7 people still missing, it's fair to say that the typhoon largely spared the Philippines. The Manila Bulletin is reporting that a tornado (called an "ipo-ipo" there) injured ten and destroyed some 60 houses in Cavite and Ternate as Mirinae swept through.

Mirinae, now just a tropical storm with 65 mph winds, is currently over the South China Sea. Mirinae is expected to make landfall in south-central Vietnam near 00 UTC on Monday, November 2. As Mirinae approaches Vietnam, wind shear will increase, sea surface temperatures and the total heat content of the ocean will sharply decrease, and the storm will encounter cooler, more stable air. These negative influences should make Mirinae a 45 - 55 mph tropical storm at landfall in Vietnam.


Figure 1. Filipinos watch the onslaught of Typhoon Mirinae on Saturday. Image credit: Jim Edds. His extremestorms.com website has images and videos from the landfall of Mirinae.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A non-tropical low pressure system in the middle Atlantic Ocean, near 30N 50W, 700 miles east of Bermuda, has cut off from the jet stream. This low will slowly wander westward toward Bermuda over the next three days. It is possible that the low will spend enough time over water to acquire some tropical characteristics and become Subtropical Storm Ida, though I put the chances at low, less than 30%. SSTs are 25 - 26° C in the region, which is barely warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is high, 30 - 50 knots, and there is a large amount of dry air to the west of the low, so no development will occur today. The storm is expected to recurve to the north well east of Bermuda on Tuesday.

None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical storm development in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The GFS and NOGAPS models are calling for a tropical storm to form off the Pacific coast of Mexico near the Guatemala border by the middle of next week, and it is possible that this development could occur on the Atlantic side of Central America instead, as suggested by the Canadian model.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting xcool:
Join me tonight November 1st for the next edition of the weather and the media show. My guest will be Joe Bastardi from accuweather as we discuss the quiet hurricane season and why this is happening. The program will start at 8:00PM ET November 1st right here on


http://hurricanecity.com/


What!! It's 10ET now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Miranae... wait for it...

wait for it..........

I THINK I SEE A EYE!

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
610. xcool
Join me tonight November 1st for the next edition of the weather and the media show. My guest will be Joe Bastardi from accuweather as we discuss the quiet hurricane season and why this is happening. The program will start at 8:00PM ET November 1st right here on


http://hurricanecity.com/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Extratropical cyclone
Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are a group of cyclones defined as synoptic scale low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth (outside the tropics) having neither tropical nor polar characteristics, and are connected with fronts and horizontal gradients in temperature and dew point otherwise known as "baroclinic zones".[1] Extratropical cyclones are the everyday phenomena which, along with anticyclones, drive the weather over much of the Earth, producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales and thunderstorms.


Subtropical cyclone
A subtropical cyclone is a weather system that has some characteristics of a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. As early as the 1950s, meteorologists were unclear whether they should be characterized as tropical or extratropical cyclones. They were officially recognized by the National Hurricane Center in 1972. Subtropical cyclones began to receive names off the official tropical cyclone lists in the Atlantic Basin and the southwest Indian ocean.
There are two definitions currently used for subtropical cyclones. Across the north Atlantic and southwest Indian ocean, they require central convection fairly near the center and a warming core in the mid-levels of the troposphere. Across the eastern half of the northern Pacific, they require a mid-tropospheric cyclone to cut off from the main belt of the westerlies and only a weak surface circulation. Subtropical cyclones have broad wind patterns with maximum sustained winds located farther from the center than typical tropical cyclones, and have no weather fronts linked into their center.

Since they form from initially extratropical cyclones which have colder temperatures aloft than normally found in the tropics, the sea surface temperatures required for their formation are lower than the tropical cyclone threshold by 3°C (5°F), lying around 23 °C (73 °F). This also means that subtropical cyclones are more likely to form outside the traditional bounds of the hurricane season.
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Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments

TS BUSTED FORECAST, to be used in the event you make a minor discrepancy in your forecast.
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Very define and tight COC

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
605. xcool


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Quoting reedzone:
It appears that Subtropical Ida will be designated by 4 a.m. tomorrow morning if it keeps up the organization. If they were to designate it by 10 p.m., the Navy site would have already renumbered it 09L IDA, so no Ida tonight. Tomorrow morning? Most likely.


Correction

11L Ida
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
repost, and bookmarking, thanks to whoever found these :)

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It appears that Subtropical Ida will be designated by 4 a.m. tomorrow morning if it keeps up the organization. If they were to designate it by 10 p.m., the Navy site would have already renumbered it 09L IDA, so no Ida tonight. Tomorrow morning? Most likely.
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Quoting Weather456:



lol, That was quite established throughout the day.


I just got on. :P
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I think we'll see subtropical 55 mph Ida at 10pm.
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Quoting futuremet:


It will likely look like a comma tomorrow night. I don't think Ida will form out of this one.

BTW, conditions are apparently will get a bit more favorable in the caribbean soon. The perpetual ridging pattern over the east coast is finally ending.


You are not looking at the supporting evidence

strongest winds near center
warm core in the upper and lower levels
decaying frontal boundaries
latent heat fluxes
ST numbers and cloud patterns typical of organized hybrid systems
ssts above the 23C mark.

The only opposing factor is the time frame which I really do not see how is related to now since these dont normally last long.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
quikscat has a presentation more like a gale center, even though the strongest winds are closest to the center, those that say subtropical are probably correct, as it is gale with subtropical characteristics, and I guess one or 2 tropical features at best, jmo.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
96L is not tropical, as evidenced by a pronounced area of cyclonic turning at 200 mb, as noted on the CIMSS graph futuremet posted.


lol, That was quite established throughout the day.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


It will likely look like a comma tomorrow night. I don't think Ida will form out of this one.

BTW, conditions are apparently will get a bit more favorable in the caribbean soon. The perpetual ridging pattern over the east coast is finally ending.


to sum up the 2009 season; a lot of hype on many systems, and all came up short of the hype
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Quoting winter123:
Looks like a cookie someone took a bite out of the left side of...



It will likely look like a comma tomorrow night. I don't think Ida will form out of this one.

BTW, conditions are apparently will get a bit more favorable in the caribbean soon. The perpetual ridging pattern over the east coast is finally ending.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L


Not surprised...especially in a year like this
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96L is not tropical, as evidenced by a pronounced area of cyclonic turning at 200 mb, as noted on the CIMSS graph futuremet posted.
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Looks like a cookie someone took a bite out of the left side of...

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Quoting Weather456:


trust me...based on the evidence this is far from extra-tropical. It probably have it so because it wont be upgraded tonight or it's non-tropical but if you read back the first few pages this feature is not extra-tropical.


Yea looking at it I agree, just not sure why the ATCF would put the EX on there
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L


Said it right before grace was formed too.
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L


trust me...based on the evidence this is far from extra-tropical. It probably have it so because it wont be upgraded tonight or it's non-tropical but if you read back the first few pages this feature is not extra-tropical.
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587. beell
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L



Appreciate that post, BAP!
Seems like a good time to make a hasty exit!
Good Night, all.
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Quoting winter123:


heh, thats what i said, this system is so odd...



Trust me its not odd

First subtropical cyclones are embedded within broad upper lows and troughs...is one of the things that make them subtropical, like Andrea and Jerry.

Second in the Herbert Poteat technique for subtropical cyclones which give 96L ST 3 based on my interpretations; the upper low is an essential part of the cloud patterns.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
AL, 96, 2009110200, , BEST, 0, 331N, 567W, 50, 998, EX

Well according to ATCF, this is already Extra-tropical; unless the NHC disagrees; we will not see Ida out of 96L
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Quoting futuremet:


If you continue to the loop, you will notice that it will be completely absorbed by 48hrs. It will start to lose its subtropical characteristics during tomorrow night.

Great system nonetheless

HYPERCANE!!

nice 200mb presentation



heh, thats what i said, this system is so odd...

Quoting winter123:
Oh no it's a giant hypercane, we're all doomed



XD i found it ironic/funny
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
583. beell
Certainly won't argue the available time, futuremet.

Check out the difference in the position of the 200mb trough axis vs the 850mb center.
Both 18Z at 30hrs

200mb


850mb
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Quoting beell:


Actually, if you look down through all the levels on the GFS, the upper trough deamplifies and moves off to the east. The lower levels continue on to the NW and N as an intact circulation. But it's a model-who knows?


If you continue to the loop, you will notice that it will be completely absorbed by 48hrs. It will start to lose its subtropical characteristics during tomorrow night.

Great system nonetheless

HYPERCANE!!

nice 200mb presentation

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
581. xcool
winter123 welcome.
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Quoting xcool:





oh... its clipper season! Looks like I may see some snow (central NY) with the next two systems. Thanks for that post.
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579. beell
Quoting reedzone:


I'm not saying it will be Tropical, definitely Subtropical at best, earlier I thought it might have enough time to become Tropical after it becoming Subtropical. After futuremet pointed out that it will get caught up with a trough earlier then what I had expected, it will most likely stay Subtropical. It is organizing well today and tonight. I won't be surprised if they pull the trigger by 4 a.m. tomorrow


Actually, if you look down through all the levels on the GFS, the upper trough deamplifies and moves off to the east. The lower levels continue on to the NW and N as an intact circulation. But it's a model-who knows?
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578. beell
P451, Thanks.
Available moisture would seem to place a limit on intensification. Also creeping towards cooler SST's.

But whether it does or does not make the grade it could be the last system we see in the ATL Basin this year (not that we won't keep watching!). It will be at least memorable in the fact that it could end up being a pretty near textbook STS to argue about!
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Warm Core? Is Warm Sound close enough??
img src="" alt="" />
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Quoting Weather456:
Don't know why some think we will have Tropical Storm Ida, it not a true tropical system, its an hybrid so it will most likely be Subtropical Storm Ida.


I'm not saying it will be Tropical, definitely Subtropical at best, earlier I thought it might have enough time to become Tropical after it becoming Subtropical. After futuremet pointed out that it will get caught up with a trough earlier then what I had expected, it will most likely stay Subtropical. It is organizing well today and tonight. I won't be surprised if they pull the trigger by 4 a.m. tomorrow
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575. xcool



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Quoting Weather456:
We have a warm core people



Hopefully NHC names it soon, for it does not have much time left.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Soon-to-be STS Ida does not have much time left. It will get absorbed by a weak trough and will slowly moving into cooler waters...

18Z Tomorrow: interacts and absorbed by upper level jet



This system will be over with within 36hrs...
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Quoting reedzone:
I give it a very good and possible chance that we will be tracking "Ida" tomorrow. Banding is very evident, winds near center, hopefully they're not making that same mistake they made with Grace. I think this is already at least a Hybrid system and the NHC is hinting it is to by the code red circle.


...And now there is outflow and heavy convection on the south and east side. The issue is, there is a front wrapping into the left side still, giving it energy... hence it's not self-sufficient so it cant be tropical. Should change within 12 hours though. Convection is already trying to wrap around to the north side.
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Don't know why some think we will have Tropical Storm Ida, it not a true tropical system, its an hybrid so it will most likely be Subtropical Storm Ida.
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Could the Phillipines be getting spared?!
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Somehow this seems fitting in Act III of 2009 Hurricane Season.
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Quoting reedzone:


I have to dissagree on that, it has at least a medium chance for full tropical formation with 96L due to it's organization today. It could turn out to be Subtropical then tropical in my opinion. We'll see what happens.


I feel the same way. Its just that it is basically a rating based on the environment and doesn't really take account of other factors.

I am also keeping an eye on the ATCF page incase of a renumber.
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Quoting Magicchaos:
Low near 32N 55W a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 53W south of 15N a LOW(10-25%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 71W south of 15N a VERY LOW(<10%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

(Based on current environmental conditions.)

NOTE: The low mentioned above has that chance because how I rate AOI's is based on tropical cyclone formation, not sub-tropical cyclone formation.


I have to dissagree on that, it has at least a medium chance for full tropical formation with 96L due to it's organization today. It could turn out to be Subtropical then tropical in my opinion. We'll see what happens.
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I give it a very good and possible chance that we will be tracking "Ida" tomorrow. Banding is very evident, winds near center, hopefully they're not making that same mistake they made with Grace. I think this is already at least a Hybrid system and the NHC is hinting it is to by the code red circle.
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Low near 32N 55W a LOW(10-25%) chance of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 53W south of 15N a LOW(10-25%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

Wave near 71W south of 15N a VERY LOW(<10%) of development into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.

(Based on current environmental conditions.)

NOTE: The low mentioned above has that chance because how I rate AOI's is based on tropical cyclone formation, not sub-tropical cyclone formation.
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563. jipmg
Quoting stormpetrol:

definitely a 55-60mph Tropical storm in my opinion, strongest winds right near the COC.


The size of that thing is outrages 0-0
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Hahaha the weather channel just TRASHED this system. "NO chance, too much dry air, NOOOO chance" etc. Guess they want to spite the NHC lol.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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