Jimena nears Category 5 status; 94L getting sheared

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:02 PM GMT on August 31, 2009

The most powerful hurricane anywhere on the planet so far this year is Hurricane Jimena, according to data from this afternoon's hurricane hunter mission. Jimena's 155 mph winds beat out the South Pacific's Tropical Cyclone Hamish (150 mph winds) as the most powerful tropical cyclones so far this year. The Hurricane Hunters have completed their mission into Jimena, so we will have to rely on satellite estimates of Jimena's strength until Tuesday afternoon's hurricane hunter flight to see if the storm intensifies to the 160 mph threshold needed for it to become a Category 5 hurricane.

Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning along the Mexico's Baja Peninsula. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decree in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. The computer models have come into better agreement with their latest 12Z runs, giving confidence that a landfall north of Cabo San Lucas will occur, and that town is now outside of the NHC cone of uncertainty. Cabo San Lucas has a 13% chance of receiving hurricane force winds, according to NHC's wind probability product. Serious flooding due to heavy rains will occur across all of the southern Baja Tuesday and Wednesday. Jimena is of similar intensity and is following a similar track to Hurricane Juliette of 2001, which brought 17.7" of rain to Cabo San Lucas. Juliette killed 7 people and caused $20 million in damage to Mexico, mostly due to flash flooding and mudslides from the heavy rains.

After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Hurricane Jimena at 4:35 pm EDT on Monday, 8/31/09.

Invest 94L getting sheared
Tropical wave (94L) about 450 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. However, recent satellite wind shear analyses by NOAA/Colorado State University show that wind shear has increased throughout the day over 94L, and is now near 20 knots, which is marginal for development. Satellite shear analyses from the University of Wisconsin show about 10 - 20 knots of shear, and it is apparent from satellite imagery that shear is causing some disruption to the west side of 94L. Visible satellite imagery show that 94L does not have a surface circulation center, and the storm has not significantly increased in organization this afternoon.

The forecast for 94L
Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model currently shows a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and this is not correct, so this model's forecast of low shear over 94L for the next five days cannot be trusted. The latest set of 12Z model runs are more restrained in developing 94L, and are depicting higher levels of shear will be affecting 94L over the next three days. SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, but the high shear may delay 94L from developing into a tropical depression for several days. The HWRF makes 94L into a strong tropical storm 5 days from now, but the GFDL and GFS models do not develop 94L at all. The ECMWF and NOGAPS models predict that development of 94L will not occur until five or so days from now, in a region between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda. NHC continues to give 94L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. This probability may need to get scaled back to moderate (30 - 50% chance) if the high shear continues into tomorrow.

My next post will be Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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I doubt very much that 94L will move north of Islands, I think advisories should be issued soon. With a hint of poorly defined circulation around 16n/58W and with top winds around 40-50 mph , I think its justified , jmo.
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2136. Relix
The whole west and SW quadrant aren't closed. It seems it won't be able to make one in what remains of the day until next DMAX, that is if it lives DMIN. That convection probably won't be sustained seeing the on and off cycle it's been doing for a while (past days). If it manages to close that LLC through the day there's a possibility, but as of now that's just a blob of thunderstorms moving west.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
Good Morning!

The NHC stated that 94L could become a TD or TS at any time, with convection continuing to rise, Dvorak T numbers continue to rise, Pressures at 1006 MB, QuikSCAT showing >50+ knot winds, and 850 MB vorticity continues to rise.

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2134. jipmg
Quoting Relix:
Wow it doesn't matter if it has a LLC or not, that thing is as powerful as a middle-level tropical storm in some spots. Also, convection is moving.. WSW? The shear?


convection is trying to wrap around the swirl to its West, the swirl is moving WNW
2133. jipmg
Why would it head north i turns into a TS? Isnt a ridge going to build right after it jogs WNW to NW
2132. IKE
Look for a copy/paste on the next TWO.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37995
2131. Relix
Wow it doesn't matter if it has a LLC or not, that thing is as powerful as a middle-level tropical storm in some spots. Also, convection is moving.. WSW? The shear?
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
good morning,

94L has slowed down a bit as projected..is the trough effecting 94L ?
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Dont let that big blob foll you im not surprised if it dies down
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2128. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looking at that quikscat, there's no defined center that I see.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37995
2127. pottery
I think that 94L is entirely ficticious!
It is a Test, created by some mad Professor in weather forecasting, to bamboozle students of meteorology!
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2126. IKE
Quoting stoormfury:
94L shows the vagaries and difficulties of tropical meterology. this invest has been a night mare----according to you 456 very tiresome and a challenged.


I agree, it does get tiresome. And looking at shear maps...position of the high and where 94L is at, tiresome looks to continue.


Quoting rmbjoe1954:



Will there be an opening in the ridge for a tropical storm to head north after Bahamas?


If it develops into a TS I go along with the latest ECWMF having it affect Bermuda.


Quoting connie1976:


Ike,

I don't even think the storm knows what it wants to do....lol.... just kiddin'!....
This is just the strangest storm ever! lol


Danny, part 2.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37995
Good morning, according to winds on the quikscat it has enough strong winds to directly to TS status.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


still open
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todays noa update for pr was really interesting had to post its a good read
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2121. jipmg
So thre are 60MPH winds in the convective ball.. but still no Center
Stephanie Abrams probably reads the blog...she said it looked better than Danny ever did but no closed low. If the HHs find a LLC it will most likely be TD or TS

01/0615 UTC 16.4N 55.9W T2.0/2.0 94L -- Atlantic
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2118. jipmg
I find it interesting that the upper lows have gathered convection..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST TUE SEP 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY AND MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW. BROAD AREA LOW PRES TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT COULD BECOME THE FIFTH NAMED STORM OF
THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON AND MAY IMPACT THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOR TODAY IS QUITE SIMPLE. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS
HEIGHTS RISE IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID-UPPER LVL RIDGE. THIS
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR THE NEXT 48 HRS. SHOWERS
IF ANY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF PR DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS.

FCST FOR THU-FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION
OF BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH AT THIS TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
CENTER FIXES DONE AT 06Z BY TAFB AND SAB AGENCIES WERE
AT 16.3N 55.6W AND 16.4N 55.9W RESPECTIVELY. COORDINATED WITH
BOTH ANALYSTS ON THE PHONE THIS MORNING AND BOTH INDICATED A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIXES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE CENTERS. A 0406Z TMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WITH NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. 06Z EARLY CYCLE NHC MODELS SHOW TRACKS
RANGING FROM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PR TO AS FAR NORTH AS 20N
IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME OR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK FCST UNTIL
AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HRS. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI ARE REMINDED
THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE IN THE ORDER OF 167 TO 230
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME. THE FIRST HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INTERCEPT THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON AT 2PM AND WILL GIVE A BETTER PICTURE OF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE STORM...ITS EXACT LOCATION AND WIND FIELD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM HPC`S INTERNATIONAL
DESK YESTERDAY...THE FLOW DOMINATING THE ATLC TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND TO THE EAST OF 70W IS CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS TUTT LOWS WITH
CELLS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING MIGRATORY AND OF SHORT
DURATION RESULTING IN VERY ILL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. I WOULD
EXPECT THE TRACK FCST WITH THIS STORM TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING
WITH LOTS OF ERRATIC MOVEMENTS AND WOBBLES WITH A MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE STORM IS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TON OF RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM MOVING AT AVERAGE
OF SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH THE GFDL INDICATING SPEEDS AS SLOW AS 4 KT AT TIMES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS STILL BEYOND 48 HRS IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

HURRICANE STATEMENT WILL BE FRESHEN LATER THIS MORNING TO UPDATE
STORM POSITION AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR NEXT 48 HRS. TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW XCPT
AMZ710 WHERE SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THU.
TROPICAL STORM OR GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT.
6 TO 8 FEET SEAS LIKELY ATLC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE BUT ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF STORM DEVELOPS FURTHER.
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HHs flight this afternoon is probably the most anticipated of the season.

Models were wrong in 1st place but made a bit more sense but no confirmed LLC they maybe just as wrong as they were intially.
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2114. pottery
Hi Homeless. This is a real taxing storm. I wish that the HH were in there now.
In the meantime, the rest of the Atlantic is looking very calm.
By the way, it's September!!
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Quoting Relix:
If this ever becomes Erika I am gonna party. Really... so much effort, wits... bla bla bla. =P


lol
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2111. Relix
If this ever becomes Erika I am gonna party. Really... so much effort, wits... bla bla bla. =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
Quoting IKE:


The problem with this discussion is this office is downplaying the GFS scenario of keeping it weak/as a wave, and having it continue WNW.

Latest GFS and NOGAPS continues to do that...keep it weak and head it through the NW Bahamas and approaching SE FL.

I will agree that if this system develops into a tropical storm it's going to mainly affect Bermuda and will not affect the USA.


Will there be an opening in the ridge for a tropical storm to head north after Bahamas?
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1996
Quoting IKE:


The problem with this discussion is this office is downplaying the GFS scenario of keeping it weak/as a wave, and having it continue WNW.

Latest GFS and NOGAPS continues to do that...keep it weak and head it through the NW Bahamas and approaching SE FL.

I will agree that if this system develops into a tropical storm it's going to mainly affect Bermuda and will not affect the USA.


Ike,

I don't even think the storm knows what it wants to do....lol.... just kiddin'!....
This is just the strangest storm ever! lol
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94L shows the vagaries and difficulties of tropical meterology. this invest has been a night mare----according to you 456 very tiresome and a challenged.
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2107. IKE
Quoting IKE:
From Melbourne morning discussion....

"SUN-TUE...DLM RIDGE INITIALLY IN PLACE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ACROSS FL
AND THE WRN ATLC AS MINOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY PUSHES EWD AND OFFSHORE
THE ERN CONUS. AM HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE GFS SOLN BRINGING A WAVE
ALL THE WAY WWD INTO THE BAHAMAS. MUCH LIKE THE CASE WAS WITH BILL
...PREFER THE MORE LKLY ECM SOLN...AS THERE WILL LKLY BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH EROSION OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO ALLOW THE
CTRL ATLC SYSTEM TO TURN NWD WELL EAST OF FL.
NET RESULT IS A WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW/PRES PATTERN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR NEAR NORMAL
(CLIMO) POPS IN THE 30-40 PCT RANGE."


The problem with this discussion is this office is downplaying the GFS scenario of keeping it weak/as a wave, and having it continue WNW.

Latest GFS and NOGAPS continues to do that...keep it weak and head it through the NW Bahamas and approaching SE FL.

I will agree that if this system develops into a tropical storm it's going to mainly affect Bermuda and will not affect the USA.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37995
Lol. Good Morning Pottery. :)
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2105. jipmg
I would guess it would be upgraded to a TD.. but thats it, there is wayy too much shear
Interesting to see the firing of all the convection across the islands you can almost pick them all out.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Aussie showed evidence of a surfc. circulation earlier with a few of the microwave images. Hard to tell if it has one in that one.


I would say ~16N ~56W as of 06Z
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2102. Relix
Quoting pottery:
I think that 94L should be called the "Imperfect Storm".
Good Morning!


Or the "LOL I am having fun" Storm
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
See everyone this afternoon.....one which proves to be very interesting as Jimena closes in and the HH's check out 94L.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5385
2094 that shows the center I believe 16n 55.9 w with the sw feeder band I mentioned lined up pretty well with that center.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Aussie showed evidence of a surfc. circulation earlier with a few of the microwave images. Hard to tell if it has one in that one.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5385
2098. pottery
I think that 94L should be called the "Imperfect Storm".
Good Morning!
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Quoting stoormfury:
morning
the LLC of 94L is still southwest of the main mass of convection, northeast of Barbados. The area near 16N 55W is only the mid and upper level circulations. Until the ststem becomes vertically stacked, the chances of a TD forming will take longer than anticipated


Yeah.....but 94L is not going to use the circulation just NE of Barbados for it's LLC. A new one could form at any time under the convection (16N 55W).....it would benefit it, then it would already be vertically stacked.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5385
Couple observations, band feeding system from sw angle looks the best I have seen as in low shear. Looked at buoys n and ne of 94L all show bp rising and ull north of 94L rapidly pulling of to the north.
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2095. Relix
Can anyone tell me where 94L is moving right now? Just woke up =P
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2777
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Quoting stoormfury:
morning
the LLC of 94L is still southwest of the main mass of convection, northeast of Barbados. The area near 16N 55W is only the mid and upper level circulations. Until the ststem becomes vertically stacked, the chances of a TD forming will take longer than anticipated


my thoughts too

94L is tiresome but a good challenge.
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morning
the LLC of 94L is still southwest of the main mass of convection, northeast of Barbados. The area near 16N 55W is only the mid and upper level circulations. Until the ststem becomes vertically stacked, the chances of a TD forming will take longer than anticipated
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2091. IKE
From San Juan morning discussion....

"FCST FOR THU-FRI WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK/EVOLUTION
OF BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WHICH AT THIS TIME REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
CENTER FIXES DONE AT 06Z BY TAFB AND SAB AGENCIES WERE
AT 16.3N 55.6W AND 16.4N 55.9W RESPECTIVELY. COORDINATED WITH
BOTH ANALYSTS ON THE PHONE THIS MORNING AND BOTH INDICATED A LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THEIR RESPECTIVE FIXES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE CENTERS. A 0406Z TMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BUT WITH NO
CLOSED CIRCULATION YET. 06Z EARLY CYCLE NHC MODELS SHOW TRACKS
RANGING FROM ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF PR TO AS FAR NORTH AS 20N
IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME OR THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MODELS TO GET A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK FCST UNTIL
AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HRS. INTERESTS IN PR/USVI ARE REMINDED
THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE IN THE ORDER OF 167 TO 230
NAUTICAL MILES IN THE 72 TO 96 HR TIME FRAME. THE FIRST HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INTERCEPT THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON AT 2PM AND WILL GIVE A BETTER PICTURE OF THE STRUCTURE
OF THE STORM...ITS EXACT LOCATION AND WIND FIELD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM HPC`S INTERNATIONAL
DESK YESTERDAY...THE FLOW DOMINATING THE ATLC TO THE NORTH OF 20N
AND TO THE EAST OF 70W IS CHARACTERIZED BY NUMEROUS TUTT LOWS WITH
CELLS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BEING MIGRATORY AND OF SHORT
DURATION RESULTING IN VERY ILL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. I WOULD
EXPECT THE TRACK FCST WITH THIS STORM TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING
WITH LOTS OF ERRATIC MOVEMENTS AND WOBBLES WITH A MUCH HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY.

THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM THE STORM IS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A
TON OF RAINFALL ALONG AND NEAR THE TRACK OF THE STORM WHICH IS
STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SUGGEST SYSTEM MOVING AT AVERAGE
OF SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KTS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
WITH THE GFDL INDICATING SPEEDS AS SLOW AS 4 KT AT TIMES. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN THU
NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT. SINCE THIS IS STILL BEYOND 48 HRS IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME."........



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37995
Quoting Weather456:


excertfrom my blog

Satellite imagery showed 94L may have slowed and it could only mean the invest has entered the region of weak steering flow where the high-pressure ridge is interrupted. I expect 94L to continue to move off towards the west to northwest, reaching the islands or just north thereof by tomorrow night.
Sounds about right.

Anyway, I'm off. See u guys later....
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One thing I noticed this morning, the 00Z GFDL developed 94L, all of the previous cycles had dissipated the system right after initialization.
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94L has a mind of it's own....I really don't think anyone knows what it's going to do....lol...

where did everyone go?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning, 456. When's the earliest u guys might feel some effects from 94L?


excertfrom my blog

Satellite imagery showed 94L may have slowed and it could only mean the invest has entered the region of weak steering flow where the high-pressure ridge is interrupted. I expect 94L to continue to move off towards the west to northwest, reaching the islands or just north thereof by tomorrow night.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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