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Danny still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:32 PM GMT on August 28, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny continues to look unhealthy, with an exposed low-level center and the main heavy thunderstorms well to the east. The center is oval instead of circular, which may portend that this center will dissipate and a new center will form under the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has more of the appearance of a subtropical storm than a tropical storm on satellite imagery, and this structure will slow down any potential intensification. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in the past few hours, though no thunderstorms have formed near the center. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission found one small spot of 45 mph surface winds between 1 - 3 pm EDT today, so Danny may barely qualify as a tropical storm. Danny's center may have begun moving to the north over the past hour, giving confidence that the storm's strongest winds and rain will stay offshore of North Carolina tonight and Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:03 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east. The center is oval-shaped and not circular, the sign of a weak circulation.

The forecast for Danny
With wind shear at 15 knots this afternoon, and forecast to increase to 20 knots tonight and 30 knots Saturday morning, it is unlikely Danny will be able to strengthen to more than a 50 mph tropical storm. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, as well. Most of the intensity forecast models continue to insist Danny will strengthen, but they have been doing a very poor job forecasting the intensity of Danny. With Danny's heavy thunderstorms all on the east side of the storm, it is unlikely that North Carolina or New England will feel tropical storm force winds from Danny when it scoots past on Saturday. Large swells from Danny creating high surf along the beaches of New England will be the primary hazard from the storm.

Massachusetts hurricane history
Two tropical storms have affected Massachusetts in the past decade, though neither of these storms brought sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) to the state. Tropical Storm Beryl of 2006 just missed Cape Cod as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Beryl brought wind gusts to tropical storm force to Nantucket Island, and a 1 foot storm surge. Tropical Storm Hermine hit southeast Massachusetts on August 31, 2004, as a minimum-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds. No land stations in Massachusetts reported tropical storm force winds during Beryl. The last time Massachusetts measured tropical storm force winds was in 1997 during that year's version of Tropical Storm Danny. Chatham recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, and Nantucket had 43 mph winds. The last time Massachusetts had hurricane force winds was in 1991 during Hurricane Bob, which hit Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane. Provincetown, Massachusetts measured sustained winds of 98 mph, gusting to 115 mph, and Buzzard's Bay received a 15 foot storm surge.

Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) mid-way between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression in the next day or two. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably today, and the storm is not ingesting as much dry air as this morning. However, visible satellite loops show only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the circulation center, which is broad and elongated from east to west. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and is expected to remain low, 5 - 10 knots, over the next five days. The waters are warm enough to support development, 27°C, and are expected to remain in the 27 - 28°C range over the next five days. It appears that 94L needs another 1 - 3 days to develop a well-formed circulation and become a tropical depression, given the favorable environment. NHC is giving 94L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Most of the models predict 94L will Be affected by two troughs of low pressure over the next week, which will pull the storm far enough north so that it will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands. It is then probable that 94L will be forced to the west again as the high pressure ridge steering the storm builds back in. The possible long-term threat to the U.S. East Coast is impossible to evaluate at this time.

I'm in New York City this weekend for my cousin's wedding, so will not be blogging again until Monday morning. In my absence, wundergound's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will be posting in my blog Saturday and Sunday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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562. IKE
Quoting K8eCane:



oh my gosh
this is a WEATHER BLOG
not a mental health center


LOL...you would think we said their spouse/girlfriend, looked ugly.

It's a blob of clouds.....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Help NEEDED

How do you guys post the animations of the loops from the NHC website?
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Quoting adjusterx:


Modelcasters


ROFL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whoever says that this is dead needs help.



It is flaring up convection again.
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Kman has his usual, "we'll see what it looks like past 60 remark." Very clever.
Shear map isn't showing a lot of obstruction.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting canesrule1:
link to the latest quikscat, thanks


Here
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
556. IKE
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Due west:
28/2345 UTC 10.2N 39.3W TOO WEAK 94L

28/1745 UTC 10.2N 37.9W TOO WEAK 94L

28/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 94L


It needs some improvement....soon.

Chicklit might prepare me a healthy helping of crow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whoever says that this is dead needs help.



But, that doesn't look impressive.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Still heading low and W. That is the danger with 94L
Moved way more northward as of 00z:

11.3N 37.9W
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whoever says that this is dead needs help.




oh my gosh
this is a WEATHER BLOG
not a mental health center
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Funkadelic:
wow I'm surprised some of the "originals" on this blog are hinting towards rip for 94l.... D-max will do wonders for our invest, I don't see why the hwrf stopped doing model runs. The nhc knows what they are doing


Modelcasters
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551. canesrule1
12:53 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting kmanislander:
I don't know why anyone would say RIP.

It looks the same as it's always done EXCEPT that quikscat this evening shows the best definition of a center that it has had so far.
link to the latest quikscat, thanks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
550. zoomiami
12:53 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting kmanislander:


Um expert ?? LOL

My thinking earlier was that 94L would remain weak and not become a TD before 50W. If that happened, I gave it a higher than 50% chance of making it into the Caribbean near 16 or 17 N.

The QS pass tonight shows that it is well on the way to a clearly defined center but the general state of disorganization tells me that TD status is still some time away.

Conclusion ? : I still see it as a threat to the Caribbean. If it gets to 60W and 17N then we would have to see where it goes from there.


Boy that's equivocation in its best form...lol
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549. kmanislander
12:53 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Due west:
28/2345 UTC 10.2N 39.3W TOO WEAK 94L

28/1745 UTC 10.2N 37.9W TOO WEAK 94L

28/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 94L


Still heading low and W. That is the danger with 94L
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548. Stormchaser2007
12:52 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Whoever says that this is dead needs help.

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547. weatherwatcher12
12:52 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Due west:
28/2345 UTC 10.2N 39.3W TOO WEAK 94L

28/1745 UTC 10.2N 37.9W TOO WEAK 94L

28/1145 UTC 10.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 94L
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
546. kmanislander
12:51 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
I don't know why anyone would say RIP.

It looks the same as it's always done EXCEPT that quikscat this evening shows the best definition of a center that it has had so far.
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545. AllStar17
12:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
still on the navy site


I know, but some of you are making assumptions because the GFDL and HWRF did not run means it is "rip". Confusing.
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544. Chicklit
12:52 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

See post 520. This one is not dead IMO. Not by a long shot.

Totally agree. I think she's a late bloomer.
What some see as a 'disorganized mess' is way more organized than what Danny has exhibited over the last two days. This one is one to watch. Crow will be prepared. We'll see who is at the table tomorrow night.
If it's me, will not be the first time.
I find it is more appetizing with a little white wine and some cheese, though.
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542. canesrule1
12:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
00z XTRP has it moving WNW. A lot more model support with 94L as of 00z.
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541. tornadodude
12:50 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
hey, sorry about the images guys, i was testing
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540. canesrule1
12:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
00z coordinates:

source(s): Link

11.3N 37.9W
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539. IKE
12:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting AllStar17:


Uh....my question is this:

Why would the NAVY deactivate it if the NHC states gradual development is possible?


It hasn't been deactivated yet. I'm just saying they haven't run models on it since the 6Z set. That usually doesn't bode well. It needs a good night.
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538. severstorm
12:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
522 Me thinks your right
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537. K8eCane
12:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Relix:
Oh my god the RIP force this stuff always happens. It's like someone turns on the wagon and half of WU jumps on it. Why? No clue.


maybe becuz thats what it looks like? But you know as well as i do that they dont always RIP

these storms are capable of resurrection
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536. hunkerdown
12:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting robie1conobie:
IDK,what did Louis say? they are gonna suck again this year.
youve got mail
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535. StormFreakyisher
12:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Grothar, are you sure that is Ivan's path?Because when it looped back to Florida it went over southeast Florida and not over the Carolinas and Georgia.
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534. tornadofan
12:48 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


LOL!

Are you serious?



No. Actually agree with Kman. It will stay weak and work it's way to the Caribbean. Once there, who knows?
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533. Tazmanian
12:47 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting AllStar17:


Already calling 94E 13E? Dont see it on the NAVY site yet.





this one you do



East Pacific
green ball95E.INVEST
green ball13E.THIRTEEN
green ball12E.IGNACIO



Link
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532. stormwatcherCI
12:47 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting kmanislander:


Um expert ?? LOL

My thinking earlier was that 94L would remain weak and not become a TD before 50W. If that happened, I gave it a higher than 50% chance of making it into the Caribbean near 16 or 17 N.

The QS pass tonight shows that it is well on the way to a clearly defined center but the general state of disorganization tells me that TD status is still some time away.

Conclusion ? : I still see it as a threat to the Caribbean. If it gets to 60W and 17N then we would have to see where it goes from there.
Thank you. I agree with your thinking because it seems to me when they try to develop around 10 N they tend to enter the Caribbean and I know it is not organized yet but it is making a gallant effort.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
531. kmanislander
12:47 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Chicklit:

Yes, ringing Kman about 94L.


Hi there

See post 520. This one is not dead IMO. Not by a long shot.
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530. AllStar17
12:47 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
I'm sorry, but this is ridiculous. RIPcasters galore.
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529. Chicklit
12:47 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting stormsurge39:
I think 94L is starting to show more convection around the center. It aint time to rip it people.

We will serve crow at 8 p.m. tomorrow night.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
528. THUNDERPR
12:46 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090829 0000 UTC
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 30.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
526. Stormchaser2007
12:46 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting tornadofan:
94L is RIP. Maybe 95L will do better. Any signs of it out there yet?


LOL!

Are you serious?

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
525. canesrule1
12:46 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting AllStar17:


Uh....my question is this:

Why would the NAVY deactivate it if the NHC states gradual development is possible?
still on the navy site
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
524. Relix
12:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Oh my god the RIP force this stuff always happens. It's like someone turns on the wagon and half of WU jumps on it. Why? No clue.
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523. AllStar17
12:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:
here is where we stan has far has names gos on the E PAC storms


round 1

90E bust

91E Bust

92E be comes TD 1E

93E be comes Andres

94 E be comes Blanca

95 E be comes Carlos

96E be comes Dolores

97E be comes Lana

98E be comes Enrique

99E be comes Felicia

round 2


90E be comes TD 9E

91E be comes GUILLERMO
92E be comes HILDA
93E be comes IGNACIO
94E be comes TD 13E
95E ???


Already calling 94E 13E? Dont see it on the NAVY site yet.


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522. K8eCane
12:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
i think maybe Steve Gregory was the administrator in 2004 for this blog?
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521. canesrule1
12:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
With current steering layers if 94L survives, this is the best previous track I could give you, not so sure on the intensity though:

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520. kmanislander
12:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Some folks looking for your expert opinion on 94 L. What say you ?


Um expert ?? LOL

My thinking earlier was that 94L would remain weak and not become a TD before 50W. If that happened, I gave it a higher than 50% chance of making it into the Caribbean near 16 or 17 N.

The QS pass tonight shows that it is well on the way to a clearly defined center but the general state of disorganization tells me that TD status is still some time away.

Conclusion ? : I still see it as a threat to the Caribbean. If it gets to 60W and 17N then we would have to see where it goes from there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
519. tornadofan
12:44 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
94L is RIP. Maybe 95L will do better. Any signs of it out there yet?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
518. stormwatcherCI
12:44 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Tazamanian: I remember when almost everyone on this blog back in 2004 said Ivan was too far South and that storms that far below 10 deg never do anything; and a lot of people wrote him off. He peaked out at 145 MPH. Anything can happen. Let us hope it doesn't.
Actually Ivan peaked at 145 kts which calculates to 166 mph
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517. tornadodude
12:44 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
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516. K8eCane
12:43 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
94L is looking like...how do i say it?.....crap
maybe RIP?
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515. Tazmanian
12:43 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
here is where we stan has far has names gos on the E PAC storms


round 1

90E bust

91E Bust

92E be comes TD 1E

93E be comes Andres

94 E be comes Blanca

95 E be comes Carlos

96E be comes Dolores

97E be comes Lana

98E be comes Enrique

99E be comes Felicia

round 2


90E be comes TD 9E

91E be comes GUILLERMO
92E be comes HILDA
93E be comes IGNACIO
94E be comes TD 13E
95E ???
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
514. AllStar17
12:45 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
Quoting Vortex95:


The blog existed in 2004? The archives go back to 2005.


No, it did not exist in 2004.
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513. THUNDERPR
12:43 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090829 0000 UTCLATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 37.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
512. stormsurge39
12:44 AM GMT on August 29, 2009
I think 94L is starting to show more convection around the center. It aint time to rip it people.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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