Danny weakens; not likely to become a hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:39 PM GMT on August 27, 2009

Tropical Storm Danny has weakened. Data from the Hurricane Hunters between 2 - 3 pm EDT showed top winds of just 40 - 45 mph at the surface. Satellite intensity estimates of Danny's strength have also declined since this morning. Danny's satellite appearance is pretty unconventional, and the storm doesn't look much like a tropical cyclone. The low level circulation center is exposed to view, with the heaviest thunderstorms lying several hundred miles east of the center. The center has remained nearly stationary the past four hours, and has grown less distinct. It is possible that a new center will form up to 100 miles to the east, in the region with the heaviest thunderstorm activity. Danny has already undergone several center relocations over the past 12 hours.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image at 3:17 pm EDT of Danny, showing the exposed swirl of clouds where Danny's center is, well displaced from the heaviest thunderstorm activity to the east.

The forecast for Danny
There's not much new to report from the latest set of 12Z model runs for Danny. The models have pretty much maintained their previous forecast, calling for Danny to intensify to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday morning, and pass close to both Cape Hatteras, NC, and Cape Cod, MA. Given that the models did not correctly forecast Danny's current struggles, I believe it is unlikely that Danny will attain hurricane strength. Dry air from the upper-level low that has been keeping Danny disorganized continues to be a problem for the storm, despite the presence of moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots. Danny only has about 24 hours of relatively favorable wind shear left, and that is probably not enough time to intensify into a hurricane. By Friday night, a trough of low pressure will approach the U.S. East Coast and bring high wind shear of 20 - 35 knots. Danny will be close enough to this trough that the trough may be able to feed energy to Danny as the trough converts Danny to an extratropical storm. As a result, Danny may not weaken only slowly. A landfall in Cape Cod, eastern Maine, or Nova Scotia as a tropical storm with 45 - 55 mph winds is a reasonable forecast.


Figure 3. Tropical wave 94L off the coast of Africa.

Invest 94L off the coast of Africa
A well-organized tropical wave (94L) lies a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, near the coast of Africa. This disturbance continues to look more organized on satellite imagery. Shear is low, about 10 knots, and waters are warm enough to support continued development. The dry Saharan Air Layer is relatively limited in extent and intensity, so dry air may have only a small inhibiting effect on the wave. Expect continued development of this wave as it moves westward over the next few days. NHC is giving this system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. This system is moving rather slowly, 10 - 15 mph. The GFDL and HWRF models both predict 94L will be a Category 1 hurricane five days from now. These models also predict that 94L will take a significant northward jog 3 - 5 days from now, in response to a strong trough of low pressure passing to the north (this is the same trough of low pressure that will be recurving Danny out to sea).

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Any thoughts on 94L coming towards FL? Or is it to early right now to know.
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Quoting eddye:
who thinks fl could get hit by 94


Not me!
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If you want boring facts and forecasts read the nhc site.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12608
Taz..I vote for 94L
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ok whats take a vote


what looks better

Danny


or 94L
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Quoting Funkadelic:


Thats funny, I dont recall a "Knife" in my avatar. And what does the Dark Knight have to do with this blog? hmm....


We are on the same page afterall!

I looked closer, the shadow in the background looks like a knife.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12608
lay off Taz....
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.
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It's fairly hard to imagine how the pronouned turn the models are showing can occur based on what i'm currently seeing on satellite animations
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Quoting HurricaneCavalier:


Sorry, I do not believe in sorcery and witchcraft. I base my weather forecasts on reliable facts and proper estimations. But by year's end the amount of rainfall in Lubock, Texas will be three times the recorded snowfall in inches. And in case you forgot, the time of year end will be 23:59:59.






So what "facts" do you base a Florida hit from a storm that hasn't even been named yet? Forget it; I hate that they let children in here...
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Quoting hunkerdown:
please tell me, where is the Carabeann ?


Everyone knows it starts at the Ukitan Pennysuhla and ends in the Antyles.
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Quoting HurricaneCavalier:


I don't know and you're right. WE'll just have to wait and see what it does and if it does make it into the Caribou Sea.
I killed a Caribu before!!
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Quoting aussiecold:
tazmanian
you need to go back to school,,,for spelling practices!!!!!!!!!
You are the one that doesn't capitalize a proper noun like Tazmanian, doesn't capitalize the beginning of a sentence, puts 3 commas. First grade stuff and you tell him he needs to go back to typing school, lol.
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Danny needs to $%$##$ or get off the pot!!
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575. eddye
who thinks fl could get hit by 94
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94L has impressive convection in his western quadran already approaching 35W... while the LLC is supposed to be further east not even at 30W yet.
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Quoting HurricaneCavalier:
Who else thinks 94L has the potential to strike somewhere in the Crabbeans?

Crabbeans lol
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Quoting Hurricane009:
You do not have to vote on anything



like i said we dont need too vote on evere storm ok?? whats this track them and have fun with out the voteing




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Quoting markymark1973:
Its year of the shear. 94L doesnt look that impressive right now at the moment. Look at the east side of it. This one will probably die too then reform further west and be another lame ana.
what?
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Quoting Funkadelic:
Man this blog has really changed this year. Around 50% of the posts on here are hidden meaning people have them on ignore, and there are so many new faces everyday. I liked it back in 2006 when I used to lurk and there was no imaturity and people posting pictures of cartoons "pooping" on the center of circulation of a storm!

I dont know maybe it's just me..:(



and this is coming from someone named Funkadelic, whose avatar is of the joker holding a knife... Hmmm.....

I do see your point though..
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12608
hey how about this how about we not vote at all i find it vary annyoing that we have to vote on evere storm and where its going too go


i find it more fun too this track and have fun




No more voteing Please
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BRING ON THE COLD FRONTS!!!!!!!!!
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Frost and Tropical Storm Danny expected for Maine.

Expect lows tomorrow around 30 but increasing each day as Danny brings in a humid, warm breezes.

Tropical Storm Conditions possible for North Carolina first, then spreading to Cape Cod and then in a north-east direction to Maine and Canada.

94L is expected to earn its name over this weekend or early next week. Expect a gradual north component when it approaches the islands around PR over the next few days similar to what Bill did. No location can be ruled out until later or like by Monday. Intensity is suppose to increase over the next few days.

For the rest of 2009.

I predict Florida to North Carolina and to Maine will be targeted by these storms more than other GOM states. Texas should be protected this season. However, if El Nino persists, the entire south-east from North Carolina to Alabama should watch out for frozen precipitation chances.

- Walshy
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Sorry, how about this,... Carabbean
try Caribbean
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Sorry, how about this,... Carabbean
ughhh, lol, it is spelled CARIBBEAN, LMAO!!!
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Quoting Hurricane009:
Sorry, how about this,... Carabbean


It's caribbean.
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Quoting NRAamy:
besides...it is on topic...


I didn't realize that the blog was about purple monsters taking a dump from outerspace over CONUS, but if you say so. :)

Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 12608
Danny is moving westward ate around 4 MPH.
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d}
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Quoting HurricaneCavalier:


No, I want it to blow back into Africa but the Earth's orbit of the Sun sort of stalemate's my request.

sorry, my bad
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Quoting Dakster:


Sure, but I need to know where in North Texas so I can give you the exact date and time.


Well, he's so good I figured he could get that information via telepathy...
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besides...it is on topic...
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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