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Late-starting hurricane seasons

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:01 PM GMT on July 29, 2009

Late-starting hurricane seasons--ones where the first named storm of the year doesn't occur until August--have happened in eleven of the fifty years between 1960 - 2009 (a 22% occurrence.) Only two of these eleven seasons ended up with more hurricanes than average (seven or greater). The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15. The year 1941 was also late starting, with the season's first storm arriving on September 11. Of course, we didn't have satellites back then, so it's a good bet there were storms earlier in these seasons that got missed. However, there's a good possibility that 1914 really did have only one storm. A re-analysis of the hurricane activity in the decade 1911-1920 (Landsea et al., 2008) found 1.3 missing tropical cyclones per year, thanks to the inclusion of a new database of ship weather reports called COADS. However, 1914 was not one of those years. Various authors have estimated that we missed an average of between one and three tropical cyclones per year during that time period, so it is quite possible 1914 had only one storm.


Figure 1. The hurricane season of 1914 featured only one tropical storm, and was the latest-starting hurricane season on record (September 15).

The latest dates for the first named storm of the season in the recent past, followed by the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes that year are:

2009 (August 15) 9,3,2
2004 (August 1) 15,9,6
2000 (August 4) 15,8,3
1988 (August 7) 12,6,3
1987 (August 9) 7,3,1
1984 (August 18) 13,5,1
1983 (August 15) 4,2,1
1977 (August 30) 6,5,1
1967 (August 30) 8,6,2
1963 (August 2) 9,6,2
1962 (August 22) 5,3,1

We can also add 1992 to the list if we ignore the unnamed subtropical storm that formed in April of that year. That year had the notorious Hurricane Andrew as its first named storm. Andrew formed on August 17 of that year, and was the only major hurricane in a year that had only seven named storms and four hurricanes. For comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season has 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. So, it is a good bet that 2009 will be a below-average season.

References
Landsea, C. W. , D. A. Glenn, W. Bredemeyer, M. Chenoweth, R. Ellis J. Gamache, L. Hufstetler, C. Mock, R. Perez, R. Prieto, J. Sanchez-Sesma, D. Thomas, and L. Woolcock, 2008, A Reanalysis of the 1911-20 Atlantic Hurricane Database", Journal of Climate, 21, p.2138-2168.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



cold core low???


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
TAZ,

Are you excited about the Cold Core low moving into Northern California in about 6-7 Days from now?



cold core low???
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hey kman that is the wave that the GFS is developing

good catch
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Somebody needs to tell TWC that there is an invest in the pacific.
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GOES-West 4 km IR4 Floater


INV/97E/XX
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
That is serious heat. (Actually anytime the air temp is at or above body temp, I deem it serious heat). Are your water lines fairly deep under ground? If so, then you can get some cool water with which to fill the tub.

Even if it's not very deep my understanding is that in most parts of canada the ground temp stays fairly chilled.
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Meteosat 14 km Water Vapor


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Quoting JRRP:

eso es cierto
pero los q se van mar afuera me referia
Eso suena mejor, porque es terrible cuando las personas pierden sus hogares y sus vidas.
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TAZ,

Are you excited about the Cold Core low moving into Northern California in about 6-7 Days from now?
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648. JRRP
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Usted debe estar agradecido no hay huracanes para destruir la vida de las personas

eso es cierto
pero los q se van mar afuera me referia
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Quoting JRRP:
no me gusta esta temporada de huracanes...
yo pago internet para ver y seguir los ciclones.... al ver que no se formado el primero y sin esperanzas de que en los proximos dias veamos la primera tormenta ps realmente me siento decepcionado


LOL... you funny.
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Good evening...
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Quoting JRRP:
no me gusta esta temporada de huracanes...
yo pago internet para ver y seguir los ciclones.... al ver que no se formado el primero y sin esperanzas de que en los proximos dias veamos la primera tormenta ps realmente me siento decepcionado
Usted debe estar agradecido no hay huracanes para destruir la vida de las personas
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10N 30W

Quikscat has a low there tonight.

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Quikscat showing a fairly well defined low near 10N 30 W coinciding with decent convection at those coordinates.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
And no one has AC either... less then 2-3% anyway.

Its down from 104.4
That is serious heat. (Actually anytime the air temp is at or above body temp, I deem it serious heat). Are your water lines fairly deep under ground? If so, then you can get some cool water with which to fill the tub.
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I've been gone all day. Anything new?
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639. JRRP
no me gusta esta temporada de huracanes...
yo pago internet para ver y seguir los ciclones.... al ver que no se formado el primero y sin esperanzas de que en los proximos dias veamos la primera tormenta ps realmente me siento decepcionado
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Wave exiting Africa looking interesting tonight. Blowing up some convection as it hits the water.
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Quoting jeffs713:

I would show sympathy, but I envy that 18% humidity. I can definitely empathize with you, though.

I will say that the kind of heat you are getting DEFINITELY sucks, and I do feel bad for y'all up there. Very few people up there are used to that kind of heat.



And no one has AC either... less then 2-3% anyway.

Its down from 104.4
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Hi everyone,

I have now uploaded a few pics from Skagway, Alaska to add to the Vancouver ,Icy Strait and Tracy Arm fjord shots from earlier today. Tomorrow I will finish off with Juneau including the whale watching boat trip and helicopter trip to Mendenhall glacier.

Enjoy

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Quoting Orcasystems:



Oh gooody... its cooling down.. almost downright frigid :(

I would show sympathy, but I envy that 18% humidity. I can definitely empathize with you, though.

I will say that the kind of heat you are getting DEFINITELY sucks, and I do feel bad for y'all up there. Very few people up there are used to that kind of heat.
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634. DDR
Hey everyone
Its been a very wet day today,as is the norm for us,more than 2 inches in some places.

Piarco international.
Thunderstorm
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 24 C
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 1013 hPa (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 365 m
Mostly Cloudy 8534 m
(Above Ground Level

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Quoting AussieStorm:
Hi all, off topic.
How much does it cost to go to a baseball game there?
Cheers AussieStorm

BTW, watching Rays v Yankees atm

Depends on the seats you get. For "decent" seats to a Houston Astros game, you are looking to spend about $25 per person for seats. Most food runs $4-7, beer is $7 (and its crappy beer, too), and parking the car will run you anywhere from $5 to $20.
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Quoting Orcasystems:



Oh gooody... its cooling down.. almost downright frigid :(
You better put on your down jacket so you don't catch a chill.
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Oh gooody... its cooling down.. almost downright frigid :(
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Its not that KOTG,folks today..seems to want esay and absolutes,even in a single blog post.

The subject we chat and discuss and fight,er..squabble over,..is just the tip of the the Whole.
Earth is a Lucky place in the Local group. SOL is stable,we have a Large Moon,and the right tilt for seasons.
I enjoy that more every year now.

The Tropics are a Big part of the cycle. But we know so little of the whole. Which is why were here.
To expand the book.
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Quoting Patrap:
Gee,maybe the Navigators of the British,Spanish and French Sailing the Atlantic since 1492 never wrote down a single note.
Fascinatiing they wouldnt record the dates and effects of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.

Reach out and try to imagine yourself a Met ona Ships.

Theres tons of records ,and the NWS will direct you to them,or try Naval Atlantic Hostorical Ships Logs.

Its a long list.

Enjoy it.

Savor it.


Records of these er,..magical travels are well recorded.
Just a inform.
they just don't get it pat
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Gee,maybe the Navigators of the British,Spanish and French Sailing the Atlantic since 1492 never wrote down a single note.
Fascinatiing they wouldnt record the dates and effects of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane.

Reach out and try to imagine yourself a Met on a Ship.

Theres tons of records ,and the NWS will direct you to them,or try Naval Atlantic Historical Ships Logs.

Its a long list.

Enjoy it.

Its not abosultes,..nothing is in the tropics as to records Post Sat era,which I've been lucky and priveliged to Live thru it's start to today.

Savor it.


Records of these er,..magical travels are well recorded.
Just a inform.
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Quoting StormW:
Congrats 456!


Finally got my slosh copy from shaffer.
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Quoting mattrix:
How do they know this?

"The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15"

Without planes or Sat how can information like this be considered?

What if the storm were a fish and never made landfall, how would they have ever known? Just curious. Thanks if anyone can answer.


They dont know that, they are just speculating. If there werent satellites back then, I am very certain many storms were not even detected. I did a research thingy at the NWS a few yrs ago about this.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
looks like thursday 97E will be TD 6 or may be later tonight


Actually, its possible it could become the first CPAC storm of the season, its geteting pretty close to there.
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Hi all, off topic.
How much does it cost to go to a baseball game there?
Cheers AussieStorm

BTW, watching Rays v Yankees atm
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Weather456 - Congrats as well - Keep up the good work!
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Mattrix - I hate to say this, but if you read Dr. Master's complete blog entry he explaned it.

Basically, it is a BEST guess. Back then you had "ships" reports as the worlds commerce (and people) had to go by ship to the various continents. (Since there were no planes)
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422

WHXX01 KMIA 300043

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
0043 UTC THU JUL 30 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972009) 20090730 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090730 0000 090730 1200 090731 0000 090731 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.2N 135.6W 11.7N 138.3W 12.3N 141.0W 12.9N 143.5W

BAMD 11.2N 135.6W 11.5N 138.3W 12.0N 141.2W 12.6N 144.1W

BAMM 11.2N 135.6W 11.5N 138.3W 11.8N 141.1W 12.3N 143.9W

LBAR 11.2N 135.6W 11.4N 138.4W 11.9N 141.4W 12.2N 144.5W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 44KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090801 0000 090802 0000 090803 0000 090804 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.5N 146.1W 14.9N 151.4W 16.6N 156.7W 18.3N 162.0W

BAMD 13.4N 146.9W 15.2N 151.5W 17.8N 154.9W 21.0N 157.1W

BAMM 12.8N 146.7W 14.4N 151.7W 16.0N 156.0W 17.7N 160.0W

LBAR 12.2N 147.6W 11.4N 153.0W 10.3N 156.9W 7.3N 158.2W

SHIP 49KTS 51KTS 42KTS 35KTS

DSHP 49KTS 51KTS 42KTS 35KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 135.6W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 132.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT

LATM24 = 10.9N LONM24 = 130.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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looks like thursday 97E will be TD 6 or may be later tonight
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INV/97E/XX
12.ON/135.0W
1007 MB
25KTS
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97E looks vary well tonight looks like it has a good ch of being the next TD but can it do it be for the end of july
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How do they know this?

"The record for the latest starting hurricane season since 1851 was set in 1914, when the only storm of the season formed on September 15"

Without planes or Sat how can information like this be considered?

What if the storm were a fish and never made landfall, how would they have ever known? Just curious. Thanks if anyone can answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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