Quiet in the Atlantic; total eclipse darkens Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2009

The strong tropical wave (97L) we've been tracking all week has now moved over the Bahamas, and remains disorganized, thanks to 30 knots of wind shear and a traumatic encounter with the island of Hispaniola. This wave should remain disorganized for at least the next two days, thanks to high wind shear.

The new tropical disturbance north of the central Bahama Islands is lifting northwards towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30 - 35 mph, but no evidence of a closed circulation. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves northwards, parallel to the coast. This low probably does not have enough time over warm water to reach tropical depression status. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next seven days, though the tropical disturbance north of the central Bahamas may develop into an extratropical storm capable of dumping heavy rain on the Canadian Maritime provinces late this week.

I won't be making a post Thursday, since I'll be traveling. Wunderground's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will make a post if a new Invest pops up. Dr. Carver has started his own blog--check out his cool satellite loops of this morning's total eclipse in Asia.

Jeff Masters

Solar Eclipse (daniellih)
the greatest solar eclipse in this century! in Taiwan, we got partial eclipse! mine was 78% coverage! wonderful! i started to watch it at 8:00 am and ended at 11:10 am!
Solar Eclipse

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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1410. sky1989
Quoting TexasHurricane:
There are some who think that the GOM is in the clear this year. I just can't help but think that as hot as the waters are and how quiet it has been, that something is just going to really pop and then we will be like, where did that come from and how much time do we have to prepare? Anyone else think this way too???


I would definately not say that the Gulf of Mexico will be in the clear this year. I hope it will be, but as Patrap and many others have said, it is important to be prepared for anything. After looking at the SST's and the forcasts for shear for the Gulf of Mexico, over the next month, it looks eerily favorable for future storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1409. Patrap
AL982009 - INVEST ,RAAMB
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
not sure if any one nos this yet but we now have 98L


000
WHXX01 KWBC 231328
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC THU JUL 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090723 1200 090724 0000 090724 1200 090725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 74.3W 37.7N 73.2W 40.0N 71.5W 42.1N 69.4W
BAMD 35.5N 74.3W 38.8N 72.8W 42.3N 71.1W 45.7N 69.7W
BAMM 35.5N 74.3W 38.1N 72.8W 40.8N 70.8W 43.6N 68.4W
LBAR 35.5N 74.3W 38.5N 72.7W 41.4N 70.4W 43.8N 67.8W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090725 1200 090726 1200 090727 1200 090728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 44.2N 67.5W 47.6N 63.7W 49.5N 59.7W 50.1N 53.3W
BAMD 48.2N 68.9W 50.8N 67.0W 51.7N 61.1W 49.4N 51.3W
BAMM 46.1N 66.7W 49.4N 63.0W 48.6N 56.0W 44.7N 46.0W
LBAR 45.1N 63.2W 45.2N 48.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 42KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 26KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 3DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 74.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Yeah Taz, I'm aware of that. I think that was a wasted label though, since 98L has no chance at becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1407. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
not sure if any one nos this yet but we now have 98L


000
WHXX01 KWBC 231328
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC THU JUL 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090723 1200 090724 0000 090724 1200 090725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 74.3W 37.7N 73.2W 40.0N 71.5W 42.1N 69.4W
BAMD 35.5N 74.3W 38.8N 72.8W 42.3N 71.1W 45.7N 69.7W
BAMM 35.5N 74.3W 38.1N 72.8W 40.8N 70.8W 43.6N 68.4W
LBAR 35.5N 74.3W 38.5N 72.7W 41.4N 70.4W 43.8N 67.8W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090725 1200 090726 1200 090727 1200 090728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 44.2N 67.5W 47.6N 63.7W 49.5N 59.7W 50.1N 53.3W
BAMD 48.2N 68.9W 50.8N 67.0W 51.7N 61.1W 49.4N 51.3W
BAMM 46.1N 66.7W 49.4N 63.0W 48.6N 56.0W 44.7N 46.0W
LBAR 45.1N 63.2W 45.2N 48.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 42KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 26KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 3DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 74.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



late.........
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
There are some who think that the GOM is in the clear this year. I just can't help but think that as hot as the waters are and how quiet it has been, that something is just going to really pop and then we will be like, where did that come from and how much time do we have to prepare? Anyone else think this way too???


I dont think anyone really thinks the GOM is in the clear.. Its more like wishful thinking. Ya know like when your a kid. i dont see you.. You dont see me. truth is Tx has just as much of a chance as any where else.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
not sure if any one nos this yet but we now have 98L


000
WHXX01 KWBC 231328
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC THU JUL 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090723 1200 090724 0000 090724 1200 090725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 74.3W 37.7N 73.2W 40.0N 71.5W 42.1N 69.4W
BAMD 35.5N 74.3W 38.8N 72.8W 42.3N 71.1W 45.7N 69.7W
BAMM 35.5N 74.3W 38.1N 72.8W 40.8N 70.8W 43.6N 68.4W
LBAR 35.5N 74.3W 38.5N 72.7W 41.4N 70.4W 43.8N 67.8W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090725 1200 090726 1200 090727 1200 090728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 44.2N 67.5W 47.6N 63.7W 49.5N 59.7W 50.1N 53.3W
BAMD 48.2N 68.9W 50.8N 67.0W 51.7N 61.1W 49.4N 51.3W
BAMM 46.1N 66.7W 49.4N 63.0W 48.6N 56.0W 44.7N 46.0W
LBAR 45.1N 63.2W 45.2N 48.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 42KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 26KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 3DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 74.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



We had 98L, it was designated earlier this morning and has already been deactivated
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
There are some who think that the GOM is in the clear this year. I just can't help but think that as hot as the waters are and how quiet it has been, that something is just going to really pop and then we will be like, where did that come from and how much time do we have to prepare? Anyone else think this way too???


I don't think warm SSTs and the lack of any significant tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico waters has any bearing on whether or not we actually see tropical cyclone activity there later in the season.

I will say though, that the more heat that is not upwelled by the passage of a tropical cyclone, the bigger the threat the following year, as that heat will be quicker to regenerate once winter ceases, because SSTs will still be quite warm from the previous season, due to the lack of upwelling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not sure if any one nos this yet but we now have 98L


000
WHXX01 KWBC 231328
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC THU JUL 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982009) 20090723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090723 1200 090724 0000 090724 1200 090725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.5N 74.3W 37.7N 73.2W 40.0N 71.5W 42.1N 69.4W
BAMD 35.5N 74.3W 38.8N 72.8W 42.3N 71.1W 45.7N 69.7W
BAMM 35.5N 74.3W 38.1N 72.8W 40.8N 70.8W 43.6N 68.4W
LBAR 35.5N 74.3W 38.5N 72.7W 41.4N 70.4W 43.8N 67.8W
SHIP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS
DSHP 25KTS 35KTS 44KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090725 1200 090726 1200 090727 1200 090728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 44.2N 67.5W 47.6N 63.7W 49.5N 59.7W 50.1N 53.3W
BAMD 48.2N 68.9W 50.8N 67.0W 51.7N 61.1W 49.4N 51.3W
BAMM 46.1N 66.7W 49.4N 63.0W 48.6N 56.0W 44.7N 46.0W
LBAR 45.1N 63.2W 45.2N 48.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 42KTS 27KTS 0KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 26KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 35.5N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 5DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 32.5N LONM12 = 74.5W DIRM12 = 3DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 74.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1402. Patrap
What some Folks think is Moot,the Storms dont blog or read last I checked.

Every one from Brownsville to Maine should have a Plan and Know what to do if a Threat develops..

Aug and Sept bring the Biggest threats of the Season,so being ready for a Hurricane is ones responsibility.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Where would you put Texas in that risk area?


Tex, the truth is no one knows where any storm will hit. They are discussing what they think may happen based on previous seasons and models of the future. I don't think it matters around here if we have a negative NAO or a positive. EL NINO, LA NINA, or neutral years don't matter either. We've gotten hits in all of them. And we haven't gotten hits in all of them. And I'd hazard a guess that's probably true for everywhere. So just keep an eye on things. And be prepared. I know we've been getting hit one after another but hopefully we won't this year and we can have a break. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There are some who think that the GOM is in the clear this year. I just can't help but think that as hot as the waters are and how quiet it has been, that something is just going to really pop and then we will be like, where did that come from and how much time do we have to prepare? Anyone else think this way too???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
KoritheMan

Well said and so true. For most on here..
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
Has there ever been a season with no storms? Seems like a REALLY slow season so far although I understand there have been slower...
thanks for all the great info on here. It's a much better resource than TWC or other mainstream outlets for certain.

HJ


There has never been a season with no named storms in the Atlantic. That happens on a regular basis in the Central Pacific, though.
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Has there ever been a season with no storms? Seems like a REALLY slow season so far although I understand there have been slower...
thanks for all the great info on here. It's a much better resource than TWC or other mainstream outlets for certain.

HJ
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1396. Patrap
WEBCAM USS Intrepid
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting PortABeachBum:


Perhaps Fire 635 can relate to this barrier Island that had Celia(3 Aug 1970) to contend with.

Sorry, WAHA, boring is better than wishcasting.

Drakoen, I respect your many insights as to what goes on in the tropics. Keep up the good work.

Sorry All, I'l go back to lurking and learning!

Beach Bum.


You misunderstand, I'm afraid. I sincerely doubt that many, if any, of us, actually want to see destruction. When we say that we want to storms to track, that is most certainly true; there are, after all, a fair bit of us here who are interested in pursuing a career in meteorology (and some who already have, or are already doing so).

But, the important thing to remember is that, though we enjoy tracking storms, we do NOT enjoy the death and destruction that accompany them (though admittedly, some of the destruction is our fault), and though I cannot speak of everyone, if it were up to me, these storms would not cause death and destruction.

It just irritates me a tad that people often misunderstand us weather enthusiasts. To you, a season with no storms is a good season. To us, it is a bad one.

EDIT: One more thing: for the majority of us, our interest in weather started at a young age with some kind of major (or perceived major) meteorological event. In my case, it started with the landfall of Tropical Storm Isidore (formerly known as Hurricane Isidore) in southeast Louisiana on September 26, 2002. That was the strongest tropical storm I've ever been through, and it produced the rains a hurricane would. I was on the left side of it too, which makes it all the more fascinating.

Because a tropical cyclone is what sparked my interest in weather, I am attracted to tropical meteorology (though I enjoy all facets of meteorology), and cannot help but be exilhilerated by events like Isidore.
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Quoting NRAamy:
Where would you put Texas in that risk area?

below Oklahoma and next to New Mexico....


Funny
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Quoting Patrap:

Here comes the snow...wait...imagine if this pattern continues until the winter.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Hopefully we will get systems to track.


Perhaps Fire 635 can relate to this barrier Island that had Celia(3 Aug 1970) to contend with.

Sorry, WAHA, boring is better than wishcasting.

Drakoen, I respect your many insights as to what goes on in the tropics. Keep up the good work.

Sorry All, I'l go back to lurking and learning!

Beach Bum.
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1391. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I still think based on the NAO pattern that the highest risk areas are along the US east coast. Also:

1) Some claim this will be an El Nino type year where most developments occur between 20N and 40N

2) Development seems alot closer to home to home this year.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
98L looks good on radar imagery. Not tropical but something interesting no doubt.


It will still have the impact of a tropical depression.
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LOL, you beat me to it Amy.
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1387. NRAamy
Where would you put Texas in that risk area?

below Oklahoma and next to New Mexico....
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Quoting fire635:


Certainly not complacent here. Ive been into weather long enough to know that it is unpredictable and just because one thing happens doesnt mean another thing will happen. 1 + 1 does not always = 2 in weather


Well said.
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Missmaxi, read the link at post 1379.
If you are in any doubt, be well prepared.
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1384. Patrap


getagameplan.org

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98L looks good on radar imagery. Not tropical but something interesting no doubt.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


We don't pinpoint specific areas. That is impossible to tell that far out. I do, however, put certain areas at higher than average risk.


Where would you put Texas in that risk area?
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1381. fire635
Quoting KoritheMan:


>_>

I think some people are forgetting that 2004 also started this late (granted, this year, a Modiki El Nino is not present like in 2004, just saying), and 2009 is certainly not the only year that started late.

I'm sorry, but don't let two months of no activity get you complacent.


Certainly not complacent here. Ive been into weather long enough to know that it is unpredictable and just because one thing happens doesnt mean another thing will happen. 1 + 1 does not always = 2 in weather
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Quoting Patrap:

Look at all that rain on my very front doorstep. Is Tropical Storm Nothing making non-landfall, or is it a non-official direct hit here?
Winds are sharply up, 25 out of the NE, Barometer down now to 29.91. Ocean waves are huge, it is said, although the beaches are not flooding, yet.
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1379. Patrap
Being Prepared is Key to being ready for a Hurricane.


Hurricane Preparation
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


This, though a lot of fish storms would be the best. I would personally take a hurricane like Dog in 1950; a 185 mph Category 5 in the open ocean with no chance of striking land.


true
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting fire635:


Im with you... wouldnt it be nice to set a record for NO named systems this year.


>_>

I think some people are forgetting that 2004 also started this late (granted, this year, a Modiki El Nino is not present like in 2004, just saying), and 2009 is certainly not the only year that started late.

I'm sorry, but don't let two months of no activity get you complacent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1376. fire635
I dont hope for storms to track but obviously storms come regardless of what anybody wants... thats where this site comes in. I see this site as a VERY good resource to track storms and get insight beyond what the TV stations tell us.
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post 1359, MissMaxi.
It is possible that Dade County will have a hurricane this year. But it is also possible that there will be no hurricanes at all.
There really is no way to know that, and anyone that says differently is trying to scare you.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Hopefully we will get systems to track.


This, though a lot of fish storms would be the best. I would personally take a hurricane like Dog in 1950; a 185 mph Category 5 in the open ocean with no chance of striking land.
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I would wager there are very few, if any, people who are posting on this blog because they hate tropical cyclones and don't want to see any. Nothing wrong with saying one likes to track these storms. It's not as if our wishes are going to have any impact on what happens.
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Drak,

what do you think about the African wave? StormW is watching it....your thoughts?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1371. Drakoen
Hopefully we will get systems to track.
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1370. WAHA
Quoting PortABeachBum:


Hopefully August will have NO storms to track!!!

you're boring
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1369. fire635
Quoting PortABeachBum:


Hopefully August will have NO storms to track!!!


Im with you... wouldnt it be nice to set a record for NO named systems this year.
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1368. Patrap
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


We don't pinpoint specific areas. That is impossible to tell that far out. I do, however, put certain areas at higher than average risk.

Thanks for your response. I believe I am in the higher risk area.
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Quoting hurricane23:
Hopefully august has some interesting storms to track.


Hopefully August will have NO storms to track!!!
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Sitting here in Brooklyn, NY and having a chuckle over the tropical weather we're having. I was watching 97L all along thinking it might threaten my home in South, FL only to have the Bahama's system give me a shower today... You just can't predict the tropics.
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1363. Drakoen
Quoting missmaxi:


I'm new to the board and I would like to know what you mean by this.
Could it be possible that Dade County is in a path of a storm in August?


We don't pinpoint specific areas. That is impossible to tell that far out. I do, however, put certain areas at higher than average risk.
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AOI

AOI

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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