Quiet in the Atlantic; total eclipse darkens Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2009

The strong tropical wave (97L) we've been tracking all week has now moved over the Bahamas, and remains disorganized, thanks to 30 knots of wind shear and a traumatic encounter with the island of Hispaniola. This wave should remain disorganized for at least the next two days, thanks to high wind shear.

The new tropical disturbance north of the central Bahama Islands is lifting northwards towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30 - 35 mph, but no evidence of a closed circulation. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves northwards, parallel to the coast. This low probably does not have enough time over warm water to reach tropical depression status. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next seven days, though the tropical disturbance north of the central Bahamas may develop into an extratropical storm capable of dumping heavy rain on the Canadian Maritime provinces late this week.

I won't be making a post Thursday, since I'll be traveling. Wunderground's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will make a post if a new Invest pops up. Dr. Carver has started his own blog--check out his cool satellite loops of this morning's total eclipse in Asia.

Jeff Masters

Solar Eclipse (daniellih)
the greatest solar eclipse in this century! in Taiwan, we got partial eclipse! mine was 78% coverage! wonderful! i started to watch it at 8:00 am and ended at 11:10 am!
Solar Eclipse

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Quoting RitaEvac:
No named storms in July, next...


How can you make that prediction??? We still have 8 days left in the month.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5399
No named storms in July, next...
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Quoting Dropsonde:
98L? The NHC must be bored too if it's designating something that is likely to go extratropical.

On the other hand, I looked at the shear map, and there are now prime conditions in the Atlantic. Pockets here and there of 25-30kt, but few and far between. The Gulf, Caribbean, and CATL are mostly clear. 97L would have really gone to town in the current conditions, and anything that pops up needs to be watched. The 8 a.m. TWD talks about a wave that might need an eye kept on it to see if it develops convection; it is embedded in SAL right now. Otherwise what just came off Africa should be observed carefully. Tick-tock, tick-tock...


You are right...we should watch the wave near 55 W and the one that just emerged off Africa
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5399
Good morning guys/gals!

Looks like the blog is moving a little slow even with a new invest being named... I guess the faith in this system is low.

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Very quiet blog.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5399
98L? The NHC must be bored too if it's designating something that is likely to go extratropical.

On the other hand, I looked at the shear map, and there are now prime conditions in the Atlantic. Pockets here and there of 25-30kt, but few and far between. The Gulf, Caribbean, and CATL are mostly clear. 97L would have really gone to town in the current conditions, and anything that pops up needs to be watched. The 8 a.m. TWD talks about a wave that might need an eye kept on it to see if it develops convection; it is embedded in SAL right now. Otherwise what just came off Africa should be observed carefully. Tick-tock, tick-tock...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT WED 22 JULY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JULY 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-055

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1530Z
D. 34.0N 75.0W
E. 23/1745Z TO 22/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 24/1200Z, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 24/0830Z
D. 40.0N 71.0W
E. 24/1130Z TO 24/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: NOAA AOC MAY BEGIN A SERIES OF RESEARCH
MISSIONS JUST EAST OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AT 23/2000Z.
BOTH A P-3 (NOAA 43) AND THE G-IV (NOAA 49) WOULD
PARTICIPATE WITH A TAKEOFF PLANNED FOR EVERY 12 HOURS.
OPERATING ALTITUDES: G-IV 41,000 TO 45,000 FT.
P-3 8,000 TO 10,000 FT.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


What does the bold part mean?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5399
Ryan Maue's Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity Update

interesting
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Quoting AllStar17:
SST's are fine now, but get much colder as it heads north, as people have been saying.





The labrador current perhaps ?

One summer I went to the outer banks (love that place) for vacation . Bodysurfed every day . One day I went in the water like Angus but quickly returned like Agnes . Damn Labrador current .
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1052. Grothar
Just a little info I thought might be of interest. Just read 1926 was an average year with only 11 named storms. However, 6 were major hurricanes (all 3 or 4) including the Great Miami Hurricane which struck with devasting force on 9/16 of that year. So this site may still be quite active yet. I, for one, do not wish for any strong storms, since I live on water in Ft. Lauderdale. The dynamics of weather is a fascination which is why I believe so many contribute to this blog. Commendable.
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Quoting leftovers:
just noticed twc hired al rocker hes the bomb


Only weatherman that can withstand cat 3 winds.
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1049. Dakster
Speaking of how hot the water around Florida is. There was a massive fish kill in the Everglades and scientists are blaming it on how hot the water is...

See the Article:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/story/1153597.html

Link
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Does anyone have an up-to-date TCHP link? I'm having trouble finding one that is current.
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morning everyone! 98L eh? Let the games begin!
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1046. SQUAWK
I think they designated it an invest so they could justify the fuel for the training flight.
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1044. cg2916
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Page 5-11

Thanks, and can you also please give me a way to decode .invest files?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Quoting cg2916:
If it flies at 18Z (2 PM EDT), then what does 1530Z mean on the plan?


Page 5-11
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SST's are fine now, but get much colder as it heads north, as people have been saying.



Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5399
1041. cg2916
If it flies at 18Z (2 PM EDT), then what does 1530Z mean on the plan?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Quoting IKE:


1800Z is what time in EDST?


2 PM, just like the model times.
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1038. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
With Recon this afternoon a go, we will know status based on flight level temp (tropical/cold core).


1800Z is what time in EDST?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38327
With Recon this afternoon a go, we will know status based on flight level temp (tropical/cold core).
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1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
840

NOUS42 KNHC 231400

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1000 AM EDT THU 23 JULY 2009

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JULY 2009

TCPOD NUMBER.....09-056



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. REMARKS: AT MINIMUM THE 23/1800Z MISSION ON TCPOD

09-056 WILL FLY.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

JWP
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Quoting cg2916:

I posted a photo where someone zoomed out on the Wundermap during Blanca, but was lagging so the picture didn't update. It looked like a ginat hurricane.

Wundermap must have been listening to one of the models, predicting an Apocolyptocane.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 6001
Quoting Weather456:
Developing East Coast Gale; 250th Blog Post


ships intensity makes it seem it will flare up quickly, your thoughts?
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1032. cg2916
Hurricane Hunter launch in about an hour and a half.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
1031. cg2916
How do you decode an invest message or a .invest file?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

95 and 96 were not skipped


So far they have been.
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Quoting AllStar17:
We have 98L!! I thought it may have been designated 95L, but I guess they will just skip 95L and 96L this time.....lets hope they do not get mad for not being used, and then make a strong, large hurricane next time they come around!

95 and 96 were not skipped
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1028. cg2916
Quoting jeffs713:


huh? What hurricane on the west coast?

I posted a photo where someone zoomed out on the Wundermap during Blanca, but was lagging so the picture didn't update. It looked like a giant hurricane.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Quoting cg2916:
This is kinda off-subject, but what does it mean when a storm gets a number in the 80s (like 80L or 89L or 85L, etc.)?


Test storm
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1026. IKE
I notice on that SHIPS text, the water temp where it is now is at 25.7C. In 24 hours it'll be at 19.4C.

I agree with the NHC...non-tropical low.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 38327
Quoting Weather456:
98L, wow

I didn't expect them to designate it either, with how quickly it is expected to move out, and how the models are generally trending to show it as subtropical at best.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 6001
Quoting AussieStorm:


Link


That has been down for a while....which is why I asked.
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Developing East Coast Gale; 250th Blog Post
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
jeffs713

the one from the pic in post #987
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Link

That link is no longer active with the NOAA. They discontinued funding with it. (and I don't have my replacement link, since I'm at work)
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 6001
Quoting cg2916:
Where is that from, I'm on the Database, and it's not anywhere on their.
Edit-Scratch that, it's just not on the folder. It here: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al982009.invest. It looks like we've had 98L sice 00Z this morning according to the page.


Just means they have been tracking it since 00Z.

Declared 200907231327 (9:27 AM EDT)
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1019. cg2916
This is kinda off-subject, but what does it mean when a storm gets a number in the 80s (like 80L or 89L or 85L, etc.)?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
Quoting Weather456:
98L, wow


how far will it go?
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Quoting futuremet:
anyone has a link to the TCHP?
The waters near Florida are truly unusually warm.


Link
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Quoting floridafisherman:
that enlarged hurricane hitting the west coast looks almost the size of typhoon Tip


huh? What hurricane on the west coast?
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 6001
98L, wow
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting cg2916:
Where is that from, I'm on the Database, and it's not anywhere on their.


Open

07/23/2009 01:27PM 555 invest_al982009.invest
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1012. cg2916
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL, 98, 2009072312, , BEST, 0, 355N, 743W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Where is that from, I'm on the Database, and it's not anywhere on their.
Edit-Scratch that, it's just not on the folder. It here: ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al982009.invest. It looks like we've had 98L sice 00Z this morning according to the page.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3047
If 98L were to develop....it would basically develop right on top of where TD 1 developed.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5399

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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