Quiet in the Atlantic; total eclipse darkens Asia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2009

The strong tropical wave (97L) we've been tracking all week has now moved over the Bahamas, and remains disorganized, thanks to 30 knots of wind shear and a traumatic encounter with the island of Hispaniola. This wave should remain disorganized for at least the next two days, thanks to high wind shear.

The new tropical disturbance north of the central Bahama Islands is lifting northwards towards the Outer Banks of North Carolina. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed winds of 30 - 35 mph, but no evidence of a closed circulation. This region is under about 20 - 25 knots of wind shear, and has the potential for some slow development over the next few days as it moves northwards, parallel to the coast. This low probably does not have enough time over warm water to reach tropical depression status. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next seven days, though the tropical disturbance north of the central Bahamas may develop into an extratropical storm capable of dumping heavy rain on the Canadian Maritime provinces late this week.

I won't be making a post Thursday, since I'll be traveling. Wunderground's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will make a post if a new Invest pops up. Dr. Carver has started his own blog--check out his cool satellite loops of this morning's total eclipse in Asia.

Jeff Masters

Solar Eclipse (daniellih)
the greatest solar eclipse in this century! in Taiwan, we got partial eclipse! mine was 78% coverage! wonderful! i started to watch it at 8:00 am and ended at 11:10 am!
Solar Eclipse

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"I won't be making a post Thursday, since I'll be traveling. Wunderground's severe storms expert, Dr. Rob Carver, will make a post if a new Invest pops up. Dr. Carver has started his own blog--check out his cool satellite loops of this morning's total eclipse in Asia."

Why no update yet? A new invest has popped up. Does Dr. Carver not know that yet?
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1110. NRAamy
:)
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1109. SQUAWK
Yes dear.
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1108. NRAamy
we all playing nice today?

:)
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Looks like a nor'easter in mid-july?????,whats up everyone???,The troughyness over the last 2 months in the east makes FL much more likely for a landfalling Hurricane this year usually later in the season(mid-august-oct),This summers weather here in swfl has been simular to 04's
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a CHANCE for a tornado may increase over long island/nyc area.500 cape located amidst increasing low level shear may support a brief/weak tornado risk.
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1104. SQUAWK
Read the header, the flights for today are canceled.


Quoting AllStar17:


for Friday
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Link
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looking at the models the whole NE coast should watch for a what
A tropical
B subtropical
C extratropical
storm or depression
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Since it's a slow day in the tropics, here is an interesting MSNBC article today on lightning:
Link


good article
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Quoting AllStar17:


for Friday

And no reason to fly one tomorrow, since it will be over MUCH colder water.
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Dude I gotta go I'm runnin late. Crap.
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Freakin' moon rock?
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I'm leaving to go to work now, so I won't know if it made it today till about 6 or 7 this evening. I'll call you. See ya partner.



PS. I see from your post it is out for delivery today. Cool.
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Quoting Dakster:
Speaking of how hot the water around Florida is. There was a massive fish kill in the Everglades and scientists are blaming it on how hot the water is...

See the Article:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/story/1153597.html

Link


Thanks for the link.. but it really wasn't massive, nor was it the everglades.
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the NAVY/NRL HAS NO 98L
Link
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Since it's a slow day in the tropics, here is an interesting MSNBC article today on lightning:
Link
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Quoting RitaEvac:
2 months down, 2 to go


Sorry - but in my book I make it 4 to go! There is still a lot of time to go unfortunately.
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Mornin' Brian. I'm watching the mail for today.
I don't have a clue what you sent, but I sure hope it isn't ticking!


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Quoting IKE:


Looks like a no-go on recon.


for Friday
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1083. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231500 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 23 JULY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JULY 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-056 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING TASKED ON TCPOD 09-055
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1440Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

for friday recon CANCELED BY THE NHC AT 23/1440Z


Looks like a no-go on recon.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 231500 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 23 JULY 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JULY 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-056 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING TASKED ON TCPOD 09-055
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 23/1440Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

for friday recon CANCELED BY THE NHC AT 23/1440Z
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Recon should be called off, its going into cold water, just a rainmaker/clouds
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1080. IKE
Memo to National Data Buoy Center: Half of your buoys are not working.

Are you in the recovery program?
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ANNA by august 7
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Honestly, I think the wave just south of the CVs, which is also embedded in SAL according to the TWD (though it doesn't look that way on the SAL map), is more promising than the wave at 55. I think a couple of the models were hinting at developing that. The clouds just off Africa are ITCZ.
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AOI

AOI
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1075. IKE
They better rush recon out before it's too late on 98L, to have a chance. 98L is moving along.
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Re: post #859

The top photo is NOT a pic from ISABEL. That was a hoax. It's been around the internet for a while. Look how calm the water is for starters..... 2nd pic, I have my doubts because it looks like a wall cloud from a supercell to me, but I can't be certain.
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1073. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ike i think your right.....I don't see Ana with 98L....I don't see an Ana at all anywhere coming.


I don't either.

I'll go ahead and say nothing through August 8th...in the Atlantic.

If I'm wrong...crow me......
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1071. IKE
12Z NAM shows high pressure building into the SE USA...
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Quoting IKE:
The wave at 55W should move west into the Yucatan and maybe through the BOC as high pressure builds into the SE USA.

I don't see development with it.

I think we're home free for July 2009 in the Atlantic. No named storms.

Now watch Ana get named w/98L and prove me wrong...


Ike i think your right.....I don't see Ana with 98L....I don't see an Ana at all anywhere coming.
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2 months down, 2 to go
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Morning everyone.....just looked at all the Models including the GFS long range......and none are forecasting even a turn of anything over the next 7 days after this Invest is gone.......The GFS possibly show something forming in the ITZ MidAtlantic at the end of the run in 12 days.....WOW! Watch Mid August and early September.......
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1067. IKE
The wave at 55W should move west into the Yucatan and maybe through the BOC as high pressure builds into the SE USA.

I don't see development with it.

I think we're home free for July 2009 in the Atlantic. No named storms.

Now watch Ana get named w/98L and prove me wrong...
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
If the 55W wave could get some convection going it would be interesting... It is moving into a favorable area


Yep
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If the 55W wave could get some convection going it would be interesting... It is moving into a favorable area
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Quoting Weather456:


456, do you think we will have anything to watch after 98 L passes??? Wave at 55 W, african wave that just emerged? Nice blog update by the way!
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It better move pretty quick then, time running against nature,
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The chance is there for something subtropical but its slim.

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Quoting RitaEvac:
No named storms in July, next...


How can you make that prediction??? We still have 8 days left in the month.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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