An African wave worth watching; 2nd warmest June on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:51 PM GMT on July 17, 2009

There's finally a African tropical wave worth mentioning, in what has been a very inactive June/July period for African waves with a potential to develop. A tropical wave near 12N 36W, about 1200 miles west of the coast of Africa, is triggering some modest heavy thunderstorm activity over the open ocean as the storm moves west at 10 - 15 mph. NHC designated this wave 97 L at noon today. Wind shear is a modest 15 knots over the disturbance, which is low enough to allow some slow development over the next few days. As long as the disturbance stays south of Puerto Rico's latitude (18°N), wind shear should remain low enough to allow development. However, there is a substantial amount of African dust and dry air surrounding the system on its west and north sides. This dry air will retard development, and may be able to completely disrupt the disturbance at some point over the next 3 - 4 days. None of the computer models develop the disturbance. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.


Figure 1. The first African wave of 2009 worth watching.

Second warmest June on record
The globe recorded its second warmest June on record, 0.02°C short of the record set in 2005, according to the National Climatic Data Center. The period January - June was the fifth warmest such period on record. Global temperature records go back to 1880. The most notable warmer-than-average temperatures were recorded across parts of Africa and most of Eurasia, where temperatures were 3°C (5°F) or more above average. The global ocean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for June 2009 was the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous June record set in 2005. The record June SSTs were due in part to the development of El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific. If El Niño conditions continue to strengthen during the coming months, we will probably set one or more global warmest-month-on-record marks later this year. The last time Earth experienced a second warmest month on record was in October 2008.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for June 2009. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

June sea ice extent in the Arctic 4th lowest on record
June 2009 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 4th lowest since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The record June low was set in 2006. This summer's melt is lagging behind the melting in the summer of 2007, which set the record for the lowest amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic. Forecasts of summer Arctic sea ice melt made in early June by two teams of German scientists put the odds of a new record sea ice minimum this year between 7% and 28%. With the amount of sunlight in the Arctic now on the wane, it appears unlikely that we will set a new record sea ice minimum in 2009. This year will probably have the 2nd or 3rd least sea ice extent on record come September, when the melting season ends. The ice-free seas that nearly surround Greenland now have contributed to temperatures of 2 - 3°C above average over the island over the past ten days. With clear skies and above-average temperatures likely over most of the island for at least the next week, we can expect near-record July melting over portions of the Greenland Ice Sheet this month.

Northwest Passage likely to open for the third consecutive year
The fabled Northwest Passage is more than half clear now, and has a good chance of melting free for the third consecutive year--and third time in recorded history. The first recorded attempt to find and sail the Northwest Passage was in 1497, and ended in failure. The thick ice choking the waterways thwarted all attempts at passage for the next four centuries. Finally, in 1905, Roald Amundsen completed the first successful navigation of the Northwest Passage. It took his ship two-and-a-half years to navigate through narrow passages of open water, and his ship spent two cold, dark winters locked in the ice during the feat.

We can be sure the Northwest Passage was never open from 1900 on, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this time. The Northwest passage may have been open at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD.


Figure 3. Ice extent as measured by an AMSR-E microwave satellite sensor on July 15, 2009. Most of the famed Northwest Passage (red lines) has melted out. Image credit: University of Bremen.

References
Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.

I'll have an update on the African tropical wave at least once this weekend if the system doesn't fall apart.

Jeff Masters

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The GFDL and HWRF models will nt be out till later this evening because of the time this INVEST was tagged. I still see shear of 50 knots, so I'm gonna be real conservative on this one. Maybe could make it to TD status before it hits high wind shear. I would like to see what the NHC models does with this, there is NO escape, it will be moving WEST! The high is too strong and the trough that is in place right now will be weak when or IF the system nears and the high should keep the system from recurving east. Every model shows the high becoming dominant in about 120 hours.
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Quoting P451:


When people post maps showing the air and sea temperatures of the arctic regions from 1800 and earlier then show a map from today and draw a conclusion from it I stop listening.

Please tell me how we can use 10 years of exceptional satellite data sets and compare them to near non-existent ones from 200+ years ago?

This is where the GW discussion takes a dump I feel. People using these maps of temperature anomalies and claiming they are legitiment even though we all know we had next to no data worldwide until the past 10-15 years. Trying to tell me that the arctic warmed 8 degrees since 1750 is a joke.

Again, the debate takes a dump in relation to the data sets presented. I've even seen maps dating back 1,000 years showing warming of the arctic. Really? We had satellite data back then to compare to today's maps?

Pffft...and my belief in "Global Warming" is posted above. We're in a period of undeniable climate change but we are not the creators of that climate change however I do indeed believe we have helped to accelerate and enhance it.

I do however don't believe we're all going to be dead or drowned in 10 years. That is just the pure lunacy involved in this topic. People need to stop the fearmongering. It is incorrect and it serves no purpose AND it makes them look like fools who people are more inclined to ignore and just go about their business. Trying to fear someone into believing a point of view always has an opposite reaction.

In today's society with all the knowledge we have to use such a primitive underhanded tactic is a disgrace.

I'm tempted to take a blank map of the globe, paint it dark red, and put a temperature scale of "+50 degrees since 500 BC" on it. Unfortunately, NOAA has already been outed for doing as much.

I recall an Aussie who posts here who showed a NOAA map claiming the whole of Australia had warmed by 10+ degrees C over the past decade. He posted a local weather service map that showed quite a different picture mixed with some warming and some cooling throughout his country.

So again, my point is the data is incomplete and for whatever negligible reasons it's also manipulated in an attempt to prove points that we're all going to boil to death in about 10 years.

Honestly, the GW community wants to be taken seriously? Provide legitimate data and stop the fear mongering. Stop putting temperature stations in the middle of runways, deserts, and major intersections and then claiming you've witnessed massive temperature rises in specific regions. Stop claiming you have accurate data collection from centuries past.

Maybe just maybe someone will take them seriously.


Agreed 100%, great post
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Factual data? ROTFL
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29677
I was quoted,..my day is made.
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Looks like marginal shear with the SHIPS which is probably why they develop slowly which is the likely scenario.
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A low runner,these CV waves are the most interesting ones to watch.
Esp the ones that seems to fight off the SAL,Shear and Land masses thru the Long trek into and thru the Caribbean.

One to watch as the Doc mentioned.
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Quoting Patrap:
Stand by for a number of CAT 4-5 posts and a Zip code location for the Fla Landfall..


33131 (Downtown Miami),,,,,,Lol
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 13662
213. 7544
link to navy site please tia
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SHIPS text. Up to hurricane at 120 hrs. LGEM, not.

Also, no shear data after 84 hrs??? I think they need to reset LOL
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Hard to tell with a Number of Folks still referring to the age of the Cosmos as 5000 years,LOL
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158 and 166 - Spot on
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Quoting IKE:


OMG...get ready....

(1)TD by Saturday
(2)Is south Florida in the cone?
(3)What about my Caribbean cruise?
(4)Convection is waning.
(5)Convection is exploding.
(6)When are the new model runs coming out?
(7)What does the XTRP model mean?
(8)It'll be RIP by Monday.
(9)Season is a bust!


This is better than Saturday Night Live! ;)
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29677
can't wait to see what the GFDL and HWRF do with this, the GFS has been out to lunch lately...
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It's working against the heat of the day JFV and it is impressive for this time of day and this time of year.
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201. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


Where's it gonna hit!?!?!?!!?


OMG...get ready....

(1)TD by Saturday
(2)Is south Florida in the cone?
(3)What about my Caribbean cruise?
(4)Convection is waning.
(5)Convection is exploding.
(6)When are the new model runs coming out?
(7)What does the XTRP model mean?
(8)It'll be RIP by Monday.
(9)Season is a bust!
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Quoting Drakoen:


Where's it gonna hit!?!?!?!!?


A wall of destructive shear
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Who slept through 95L & 96L...lol...Me for one I guess
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17469
ROFL I guess 95L and 96L formed when we werent lookin! Im sure they'll fix it.
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Not sure I can tell how broad it is from the QS pass and Mimic imagery is 6 hours old at this point. Granted it looks like it will struggle through the daytime heating. Should be interesting to watch this buoy as it approaches.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17469
OMG, NOLA is doooooomed! ROTFLMAO!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29677
Invest Ninty- fiverrrrr wait a second..

97L?

Ok, I'm confused.
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Quoting Cochise111:


"outstanding information"? No information based on NOAA's subjective and fraudulent data is outstanding. Sorry. Maybe you should investigate the source of the data a little more.


"Subjective", absolutely, but fraudulent is a bit strong. Questionable or debatable would be more appropriate. 47 hours.
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its them Jr Mets again at the NHC,..too quick to make a fast impression,..
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Quoting IKE:


OK!!!!!!!!!!!!


Where's it gonna hit!?!?!?!!?
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Quoting Cotillion:


95L lost all its shares in the recession.

96L unfortunately met its demise due to swine flu.

Sad but true. :(

LOL
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29677
189. IKE
97L WTH????????
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Stand by for a number of CAT 4-5 posts and a Zip code location for the Fla Landfall..
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Quoting Drakoen:


Invest is here!


Are there two cloaking invests we missed? lol

we went from 94L to 97L lol
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
No idea why they went to 97L

AL 97 2009071712 BEST 0 122N 315W 20 1012 DB


95L lost all its shares in the recession.

96L unfortunately met its demise due to swine flu.

Sad but true. :(
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Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29677
184. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


Invest is here!


OK!!!!!!!!!!!!
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183. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:
aww,come on Ike,join in,excuse me while I go pray that that wave gets his act together real soon.


LOL.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
No idea why they went to 97L

AL 97 2009071712 BEST 0 122N 315W 20 1012 DB


Invest is here!
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So we now have an invest, but they named it the wrong number lmao
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Quoting rwdobson:


And if you look at the chart, you'll see a blue dot right around the Boston area, indicating below average temps.

"Global warming must be a myth because we had a cold month where I live" is a flawed argument. Of course some places will experience below average temperatures even as the overall temperature increases.


Where's the mention of global warming, just the chart and it wasn't ONLY Boston the entire North East was cold in June. And the little blue dot according to the chart's key only -1. It was actually tied for the sixth coldest on record.

I really don't have an opinion on Global Warming. And if it is true, I actually don't care if it's man made or a nature cycle. I believe we should do anything and everything we can to reduce our blantent misuse of our planet.

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Quoting jeffs713:


There is more land mass in the northern hemisphere. Also, as ricderr mentioned, if you gain ice in one area, but lose it in 5 others, you still have a net loss of ice. Most ice gains can be attributed to local weather variances. (and regarding Antartica, it is a continent, and less susceptible to ocean warming. Completely different regional climate than the Arctic)


so the gaining of ice in antartica and south america is due too "reginal climate". but the losing of ice in the Artic is Global warming? makes sense.....
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No idea why they went to 97L

AL 97 2009071712 BEST 0 122N 315W 20 1012 DB
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50 comments and not one Link or pic of the Atlantic wave?

LOL


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Quoting IKE:
GW...a great discussion to stay out of.



A M E N!
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29677
So is this what you guys have been looking for?
Typhoon Molave

Not bad for a storm that 12-14 hours ago was predicted to be torn apart by shear.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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