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Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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1117. MeterologistDewon9
3:48 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Looks like GFS has Ana in the next 36-48 hours
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1116. weatherwatcher12
2:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
holy shi* thats TS force, wait till we have an LLC, then we got TS Ana.

Well I'm in kingston and not much happening
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1115. CybrTeddy
2:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Convection always does this during the day you know that very well because of the Durinal cycles. This always happens with weak systems.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1114. boyzNme
2:33 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting StormW:
Greetings again,

I just got an email from Barometer Bob. I send him copies of my updates as well.

He wants to have me on as a call in guest sometime when we have the good chance of a developing system.

Gotta call and work out the details though.



Congrats StormW! Be sure and let us know when so we can tune in.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1113. Crawls
2:10 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Strongly disagree. 2004 was an El Nino year and so was 1992. 2004 had late season cold fronts as well.



Thanks
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1112. weathersp
2:04 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Shear is about 30 kts and is not changed over the past 24 hours.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1111. stillwaiting
2:02 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
still to much shear in the area,my guess for the first named TC is june 22,around the 120-168hr period shear over the west carib and GOM should be much lower and the chances of a disturbance in the area w/be rising,IMO
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1110. jaxbeachbum
2:02 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
New blog.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1109. canesrule1
2:01 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:


this link may show better...Link
convection is diminishing rapidly, dont think invest just yet.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1108. weathermanwannabe
2:01 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Be back later this PM; the Blob is looking like it's on it's last leg right about now..Well, we always have the "future" model runs to look at for a few weeks....Lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1107. SavannahStorm
2:01 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
new blog
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1105. TheCaneWhisperer
2:00 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1104. canesrule1
2:00 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting IKE:
Kingston,JA. forecast for today....

"Thunderstorm. High: 87 °F . Wind ESE 40 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.46 in). Heat Index: 91 °F".....WTH?


Right now....

Kingston, JM (Airport)
Updated: 57 min 42 sec ago
Light Rain
79 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Steady)
Visibility: -
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2400 ft
Scattered Clouds 3600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
holy shi* thats TS force, wait till we have an LLC, then we got TS Ana.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1103. TheCaneWhisperer
1:58 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Meaning ?


Energy / Cyclonic turning in the lower levels that was not present yesterday. Vorticity / Energy in the lower atmosphere is what spawns surface lows.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1100. canesrule1
1:58 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:


hope you have him on speed-dial, because this Caribbean pre-blob 93L is about to blow (if only in the hearts and minds of many a blogger)
what??? blow in convection right???
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1099. IKE
1:58 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Kingston,JA. forecast for today....

"Thunderstorm. High: 87 °F . Wind ESE 40 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.46 in). Heat Index: 91 °F".....WTH?


Right now....

Kingston, JM (Airport)
Updated: 57 min 42 sec ago
Light Rain
79 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Steady)
Visibility: -
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2400 ft
Scattered Clouds 3600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1097. K8eCane
1:55 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:


looks like a puddle of water drying up on a hot sidewalk



say what? It looks like a puddle of gasoline that someone threw a lit match on to me
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1096. stillwaiting
1:55 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting Buhdog:
Looks like the trough is breaking free from the blob...we should know soon huh?


I think the only reason right now there is a blob is because of the trough,its whats causing the wx in that area.....not a surface low
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1093. Chicklit
1:53 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
#1077: The Caribbean's on fire!
Somebody grab a bucket...
Doc Masters gives it less than a 30% chance of ...
(this is a quiz)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1092. canesrule1
1:52 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
pressure in puerto cabezas, Nicaragua is 29.92 and rising.
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1091. fire635
1:52 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Regardless of development... what are the chances of this blob dumping rain on the west coast of florida? Im thinking pretty good, no?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1090. IKE
1:51 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Where is this thing supposed to head into this week, whether something or not?


According to the latest tropical weather discussion...

"THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIFT NWD THROUGH WED."....that's north.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1088. weathermanwannabe
1:51 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
NOAA put the blob up on their floater SATT site as a "test"......Must be checking out their satellite allignments for the upcoming season...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1087. K8eCane
1:51 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Morning Ike

Good to see ya on here cuz i'm curious about carribean wave....

trust your judgement
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1086. Daveg
1:51 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting weatherman4189:
I think at some point this system will move into the gulf and give plenty of rain to the gulf coast just where.


I sure hope so, have it come into Central Texas as a weak tropical system and dump a ton of rain. We are at the highest drought level you can be at...and it's getting worse.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1085. stormwatcherCI
1:50 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
I guess after a few more years on here I might begin to understand half of what is going on(I hope)
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1083. naplesdreamer28
1:49 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Where is this thing supposed to head into this week, whether something or not?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1082. IKE
1:47 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:
waning...



WU Blog comebacks.....

***It's DMIN.

***Look at the updated frame.

***Give it time.

***Are you RIP-ing it?

***vort has increased.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1081. stormwatcherCI
1:47 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


850 VORT from cimms is increasing in the area. Still rather low but on the increase.
Meaning ?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1080. IKE
1:46 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting SavannahStorm:


This is why the AOI has been able to maintain a large area of cold cloudtops in the face of the shear. The amount precipitable water in the SW Carribean jumps off the charts in the last 24 hours of this loop.


And it's soon to have the wave.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1078. IKE
1:45 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
LOL...DestinJeff didn't wait long....LMAO!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1077. IKE
1:44 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:
man, if systems could be willed into existence then we'd have over 20 named storms every year.

waiting for the color-enhanced NHC shot to really make it look imminent...


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1076. canesrule1
1:44 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1075. SavannahStorm
1:43 PM GMT on June 08, 2009


This is why the AOI has been able to maintain a large area of cold cloudtops in the face of the shear. The amount of precipitable water in the SW Carribean jumps off the charts in the last 24 hours of this loop.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1073. canesrule1
1:42 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
Atlantic Floater 1 is over our AOI in the caribbean and its labeled "TEST"
, why is it labeled test and not invest?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1072. TheCaneWhisperer
1:41 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting DestinJeff:
man, if systems could be willed into existence then we'd have over 20 named storms every year.

waiting for the color-enhanced NHC shot to really make it look imminent...


LOL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1070. canesrule1
1:41 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Atlantic Floater 1 is over our AOI in the caribbean and its labeled "TEST"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1069. TheCaneWhisperer
1:40 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting IKE:


It does look more symmetrical right now on water vapor.


850 VORT from cimms is increasing in the area. Still rather low but on the increase.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1068. canesrule1
1:39 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
Quoting MahFL:
How many times do we need the TWO posted in full ? sheesh.
what?
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1067. canesrule1
1:38 PM GMT on June 08, 2009
the models for 91E have it intensifying into a cat 2 in 3 days!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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