90L comes close to being the season's first named storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:30 PM GMT on May 23, 2009

The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm.

The circulation around 90L continues to mean rain for Florida, but the rains will be lessening today. Rainfall amounts as high as 28 inches were measured this week in Northern Florida at Brunnell. Rainfall amounts of 2 - 3 inches have accumulated along the Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida Panhandle coasts from 90L so far (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Mobile, AL radar.

There are no other threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, so have a great weekend, and I'll have a new blog post by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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I don't think we have to worry about the second wave near Colombia because the Caribbean still has some high shear and once it calms down then we could watch but wow the Western Car. is warming up enough now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
The interesting thing about Ike for me was that even though it was moving away from Louisiana, the rain and wind was steadily increasing, due to the large size of the circulation. As such, it felt like it was moving toward us.
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Geez 98B is a shame to all Bay of Bengal Cyclones. To think that it still doesn't have any convection over the COC after a full 24 hours in ripe conditions over 30C waters...

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346. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
yup
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting sammywammybamy:
I remeber ahhhh Good times ... When Ike was supposed to hit florida as a cat 4... i Went to costco and bought supplies ... thats when i learned the most important lesson :

1. Never to Listen to most of the stuff on here

2. Have Supplies in the first place

3. Dont Buy way too much supplies

Oh my gosh don't remind me of IKE, it was a nightmare when the projected path pointed directly at Boca as a Cat.4 I got paranoid and well I learned my lesson that early forecasts are wrong many times and thankfully it went south but not fortunate to others.And Frances is the first storm to inspire me to storms..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
It funny how most if not all of us, we are around coast of alantic ocean or GoM, we check for hurricanes. The worse Hurricane I ever experience was Hurricane IKE. I have been around Bmt/Houston for 32 yrs oddly enuff Ike hits hard guessing cuz i had home and 2 kids daugther didn't like Ike at all she didn't sleep she was awake during the whole ordeal of it had to force her to go sleep in hallway after the threw up she was 7 yrs old, eldest son. slept thru it all..
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Next bulletin will be issued at 0730 hrs IST of today, the 24th May 2009...

lies all lies hehe and hey Levi



Hey hey....um it's 8:06am India Standard Time......they're late....
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Wow check out the insane amounts of Precipital Water in the Bay of Bengal with the monsoon depression developing there.
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341. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Next bulletin will be issued at 0730 hrs IST of today, the 24th May 2009...

lies all lies hehe and hey Levi

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I will leave you with this if Admin permits.

Understand first, this is a blog.

Understand second, there is much in the way of valuable information you can obtain from this blog that you will find hard to find any place else.

Never use the information here on its own !

Always, listen to your local announcements !

And enjoy this tune, it has some relevance...

CULR8 ???





Link
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Oh, just checked TWD, yea its a wave.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
2nd Tropical Wave of the Season moving between 40-50W?


Yeah it's been marked for the past 2 days...

It's pretty far south running into South America, but it looks like the wave axis extends a bit farther north than is marked on the surface map.
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Quoting Samantha550:


I agree with you. I had my car packed to leave a full 12 hours before they started hinting about evacuating the Golden Triangle. People now ask me about storms, because they know I keep up with the goings on with this blog.


Ditto! The extra time is essential. Whether it's buying last minute milk and bread before the shelves are empty, or preparing to hit the road. Most of the time it turns out to be nothing, but that's OK.. I'll use the milk and bread anyway!
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2nd Tropical Wave of the Season moving between 40-50W?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Good evening all.

I feel your drowsiness HGW lol.
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Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Well as someone who went through Ike, I can't say enough about the wonderful people on this blog. It's b/c of many of them I was truly a step ahead of those in my community!

I THANK YOU!!!!


I agree with you. I had my car packed to leave a full 12 hours before they started hinting about evacuating the Golden Triangle. People now ask me about storms, because they know I keep up with the goings on with this blog.
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332. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
zzz.. waits for the advisory but falls asleep =P
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Sammy - all the hype here i was packing to leave for hannah...

It was a big rain storm. However, I pay way big attention to what's going on and if it looks like it even MIGHT be an issue, I am ready to go. I am not dealing with falling trees (we have tons of oaks and stuff here around the house) or flooding (I am two blocks from the river...we flood when it rains too much less a storm). I still have everything packed up and ready to go and if need be this year, I am gone.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


2008 was the only hurricane season I missed here since the blogs started in 2005. I was here 2005, 2006, 2007 and God's wiling 2009 and beyond. But it was worthwhile to miss 2008 as I'm getting my BD this July.


Keep it going if possible ! They can never take your education away from you. Thats a fact ! and spoken from experience.......

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I kinda left my island after Dolly made landfall. But i continued to track last year storms just not on the blog.
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We sure missed your input last season, 456. It was a pretty interesting one in several ways.
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I gotta find me a wireless internet card so if I travel this summer I can stay on the blog. I have a few weeks of vacation due me and I'm thinking about taking a pretty extensive trip.
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Quoting Weather456:


2008 was the only hurricane season I missed here since the blogs started in 2005. I was here 2005, 2006, 2007 and God's wiling 2009 and beyond. But it was worthwhile to miss 2008 as I'm getting my BD this July.


Congratulations.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


With the insane magnitude of people we had here during Fay which was only a weak Tropical Storm heading for Florida, a Category 4 hurricane would just shut the blog down.


2008 was the only hurricane season I missed here since the blogs started in 2005. I was here 2005, 2006, 2007 and God's wiling 2009 and beyond. But it was worthwhile to miss 2008 as I'm getting my BD this July.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting hahaguy:


Ya that Ike path was really scary.


Well as someone who went through Ike, I can't say enough about the wonderful people on this blog. It's b/c of many of them I was truly a step ahead of those in my community!

I THANK YOU!!!!
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Quoting Weather456:


I could imagine the Blog hysteria


With the insane magnitude of people we had here during Fay which was only a weak Tropical Storm heading for Florida, a Category 4 hurricane would just shut the blog down.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Yeah, 456, Abaco and Grand Bahama are the two islands most consistently hit by storms in our history.

It turns out that New Providence's location is relatively protected, in that it rarely gets a direct hit from the brunt of a particular storm. That's why I dread the return of climatological conditions similar to 1926, 1928, and 1929. In those years New Providence was hit FOUR times by storms of considerable power. In more recent years steering currents have been in our favour (witness, Frances, Jeanne, and more recently Ike).
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yeah when Ike's forecasted track was bringing it to South Florida as a Cat 4 was when I really started to worry.


I could imagine the Blog hysteria
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Course, last year when Ike became a Category 4 and was forecasted to hit florida at Category 4/5 status and with Gustav forecasted to become a Category 5 in the gulf freaked us all out to the point of a cardiac arrest for some of us.


Ya that Ike path was really scary.
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This is from NHCs TCR on Floyd:

Floyd was aimed at the central Bahamas until late on the 13th, when the heading became west-northwestward. The eye passed just 20 to 30 n mi northeast and north of San Salvador and Cat Islands on the night of the 13th. Floyd's eyewall passed over central and northern Eleuthera on the morning of the 14th, and after turning toward the northwest, Floyd struck Abaco island on the afternoon of the 14th. By the time the hurricane hit Abaco, it had weakened somewhat from its peak, but Floyd was still a borderline category three/four hurricane.

If it had maintained the more westward movement Floyd would likely have passed just to the south of New Providence. I've always maintained this is the worst possible angle for a storm to approach this island, as there is a considerable stretch of the Great Bahama Bank to the south, which would potentially aid in surge buildup. I think we would have had much worse effects in terms of both wind and surge. So we got off easy, comparatively speaking.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Course, last year when Ike became a Category 4 and was forecasted to hit florida at Category 4/5 status and with Gustav forecasted to become a Category 5 in the gulf freaked us all out to the point of a cardiac arrest for some of us.


Yeah when Ike's forecasted track was bringing it to South Florida as a Cat 4 was when I really started to worry.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Baha yea here it is, it was just a matter of distance

Abaco (March Harbour), Bahamas (MYAB)

18 May 1951 92 h1 44 ABLE
30 Aug 1953 40 ts 60 NOTNAMED
26 Aug 1954 63 ts 59 CAROL
14 Aug 1956 109 h2 27 BETSY
7 Oct 1958 69 ts 50 JANICE
19 Oct 1959 46 ts 52 JUDITH
7 Sep 1965 121 h3 45 BETSY
6 Sep 1972 46 ts 68 DAWN
24 Aug 1983 46 ts 61 BARRY
13 Oct 1987 52 ts 15 FLOYD
17 Oct 1991 46 ts 64 FABIAN
1 Aug 1995 86 h1 32 ERIN
28 Aug 1999 98 h2 24 DENNIS
15 Sep 1999 132 h4 8 FLOYD
3 Sep 2004 104 h2 41 FRANCES
25 Sep 2004 121 h3 8 JEANNE
22 Jul 2005 52 ts 22 FRANKLIN
25 Aug 2005 52 ts 50 KATRINA
2 Nov 2007 81 h1 40 NOEL
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Course, last year when Ike became a Category 4 and was forecasted to hit florida at Category 4/5 status and with Gustav forecasted to become a Category 5 in the gulf freaked us all out to the point of a cardiac arrest for some of us.
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Quoting Weather456:


Yea true...i actually thought it would be on the list
WE got really lucky with Floyd. If that eye had travelled 50 or 75 miles further west before it recurved Nassau would have gotten the other side of that beast, and I'd be telling a very different story.
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Look at the hits for Nassau, then realize that is only one small part of the Bahamas. A case in point: Two storms directly impacted the Bahamas last year; neither brought more than winds and rain similar to what we have had this week to Nassau. Meanwhile Inagua was pretty wiped.

No wonder The Bahamas is sometimes referred to as the hurricane capital of the hemisphere.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Heres was the track for Chris when he was near his peak. Pretty scary...good thing he failed miserably.



I remember waking up with a different WTF than the year previously with those kinds of systems. Chris had been reduced to a naked swirl and all its convection had been spread to Puerto Rico and Haiti and Cuba.
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310. JRRP
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Floyd VS. Andrew


Andrew was very small O.o
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This is all true, but we experienced cat2 winds from Floyd, despite the distance of the centre from New Providence.


Yea true...i actually thought it would be on the list
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
#305 dirigent

Thats a nice thing to say,..and a lot of folks will appreciate that Im sure.

Patrick,Uptown NOLA
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Who Could forget Katrina?

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Quoting Weather456:
Nassau, New Providence, Bahamas (MYNN)



26 Oct 1952 109 h2 19 FOX
7 Oct 1958 69 ts 3 JANICE
7 Sep 1965 127 h3 17 BETSY
4 Oct 1966 86 h1 57 INEZ
6 Oct 1974 46 ts 48 SUBTROP4
3 Sep 1979 92 h1 54 DAVID
26 Sep 1984 52 ts 9 ISIDORE
24 Aug 1992 144 h4 24 ANDREW
1 Aug 1995 86 h1 65 ERIN
5 Nov 2001 92 h1 21 MICHELLE
3 Sep 2004 104 h2 50 FRANCES
25 Aug 2005 52 ts 41 KATRINA
1 Nov 2007 63 ts 8 NOEL
This is all true, but we experienced cat2 winds from Floyd, despite the distance of the centre from New Providence.
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With the low passing to our East and North today, it has been a seasonally cool and dry day in New Orleans. I've lurked on this site for years, but never posted. Having read the hateful vitriol on many news sites, I just wanted to thank and commend everyone here for their focus, civility, and kindness. It's a tribute to the users and managers of this site.
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Kingston, Jamaica (MKJP)

18 Aug 1951 86 h1 5 CHARLIE
31 Aug 1974 75 h1 58 CARMEN
16 Sep 1974 40 ts 64 FIFI
6 Aug 1980 132 h4 47 ALLEN
12 Sep 1988 127 h3 4 GILBERT
13 Nov 1994 46 ts 5 GORDON
7 Oct 2001 86 h1 46 IRIS
29 Sep 2002 58 ts 58 LILI
11 Sep 2004 155 h5 41 IVAN
7 Jul 2005 115 h3 59 DENNIS
19 Aug 2007 144 h4 44 DEAN

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Nassau, New Providence, Bahamas (MYNN)



26 Oct 1952 109 h2 19 FOX
7 Oct 1958 69 ts 3 JANICE
7 Sep 1965 127 h3 17 BETSY
4 Oct 1966 86 h1 57 INEZ
6 Oct 1974 46 ts 48 SUBTROP4
3 Sep 1979 92 h1 54 DAVID
26 Sep 1984 52 ts 9 ISIDORE
24 Aug 1992 144 h4 24 ANDREW
1 Aug 1995 86 h1 65 ERIN
5 Nov 2001 92 h1 21 MICHELLE
3 Sep 2004 104 h2 50 FRANCES
25 Aug 2005 52 ts 41 KATRINA
1 Nov 2007 63 ts 8 NOEL
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Blog Update

AOI #1

AOI #2

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Floyd VS. Andrew

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been busy. I see 90L never quite got it's act together? Goody, means my june 15 prediction guess is still on the table =P
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Yet another storm that affected me personally.

Jeanne
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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