Gulf of Mexico storm not likely to become a depression; storm kills 11 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:38 PM GMT on May 22, 2009

The large extratropical storm that has been pounding Florida and the Bahamas this week with heavy rain and high surf extended its reach yesterday, killing at least 11 people in Haiti. According to Reuters, most of the victims were killed while crossing rivers or when their flimsy homes collapsed. Approximately six inches of rain fell on Haiti's southwest peninsula in the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT. Hundreds of homes were flooded and dozens destroyed in the flooding, which left 40% of the southern city of Cayes underwater. The impoverished Caribbean country is still struggling to recover from the massive flooding that killed over 800 people during the hurricane season of 2008. In March, UN chief Ban Ki-moon and Bill Clinton--who was this week appointed UN special envoy to the island--toured Haiti together and urged the international community to continue to aid the country. Participants at a Washington international donors conference in April agreed to donate $324 million to help Haiti rebuild.

The worst of the rain and flooding is over for Florida, which has seen rainfall amounts this week as high as 23.75 inches at the Flagler County Fairgrounds. Another 1 - 2 inches are expected in Northeast Florida today from the storm, along with beach erosion, 6 - 8 foot waves, and tides 1 - 2 feet above normal. The bad weather in Northeast Florida should subside substantially on Saturday.


Figure 1. Long range radar out of New Orleans.

The storm responsible for the heavy rains is now headed north-northwest, and should make landfall Saturday near the Louisiana/Mississippi border. The storm has developed a warm core at low levels, and NHC designated it Invest 90L late this morning. Latest visible satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity on the east side of the storm's circulation, but development is being hindered by dry air, and wind shear of 20 knots. Long range radar out of New Orleans (Figure 1) shows little organization or banding of the radar echoes. With only 24 hours to go until the system moves inland, it does not have enough time to develop into a depression. Since there will be strong winds from the west creating wind shear over the storm, plus dry air to the storm's west, most of the heavy rain should be confined to the east of the storm's center, along a stretch of coast from New Orleans to Pensacola. Rainfall totals of 2 - 4 inches can be expected.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico storm.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Portlight.org/wunderground shirts are now available on Ebay.

Jeff Masters

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1720. AstroHurricane001
5:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
New blog!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2854
1719. ddbweatherking
5:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
All the computer models show significant intensification with 98B.

I don't like the sound of that, hopefully it doesn't strengthen as much as it says or else many people could die. BTW where are u getting those models?
Member Since: May 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 67
1718. Levi32
5:25 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Nice loop of 98B and SE Asia
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
1717. AstroHurricane001
5:24 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Wow, GFS predicts 70 mm (2.8 in) of rain from 90L at my location in S. Ontario, including 1.9 in (48 mm) in just 12 hours!
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2854
1716. nocaneindy
5:23 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:



Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC


Hey thanks taz! Was not aware of that. Would hate to get banned or something like that.
Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 522
1715. WPBHurricane05
5:23 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Today's high of 78 degrees in West Palm Beach happened at 1 am. Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1714. Cavin Rawlins
5:21 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
2009 Hurricane Season Outlook

Tropical Update for 2day
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1713. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
5:12 PM GMT on May 23, 2009


imagery from Thailand Meteorological Department

shows BOB02 near India and 99W near Hong Kong, China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 64 Comments: 54796
1712. presslord
5:10 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:



Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC


...yup, dude...that's a good way to get a spanking...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10618
1711. HIEXPRESS
5:08 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
TRMM 1 Week
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2157
1710. canesrule1
5:05 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
1709. canesrule1
5:05 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting Tazmanian:



Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC
that is true, watch out with that bloggers
1708. canesrule1
5:03 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Hey what's up everyone, has anyone noticed that broad low in the atlantic...
1707. Tazmanian
5:02 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting nocaneindy:
Looks like the east coast of Florida is going to get it again.




Please re move that photo you are copy righting its from TWC and we cant post photos from TWC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
1705. tampahurricane
4:54 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
we had a tornado here in pinellas county yesterday
Member Since: May 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 305
1704. WPBHurricane05
4:53 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting sammywammybamy:

Dont you agree if we get a hurricane later on in the season we will have widespread flooding


I have gotten flooding from every hurricane except for Wilma. This season will be no different for me if South Florida gets hit.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1703. nocaneindy
4:52 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Looks like the east coast of Florida is going to get it again.

Member Since: September 21, 2007 Posts: 34 Comments: 522
1702. Drakoen
4:49 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
All the computer models show significant intensification with 98B.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
1701. SomeRandomTexan
4:48 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Well what do ya know, NHC didn't name it. Maybe they will in the next update. Looked pretty warm-core to me, especially with those AMSU images Drak posted. That was awesome watching it ramp up yesterday, too bad most of it was during the middle of the night for me.


Morning LEVI!

Im kinda surprised they didn't at least go to a TD with it... but that's is why I don't work fot the NHC...
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1863
1700. Drakoen
4:47 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Look at what the ECWMF does with 98b:Link
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
1697. HIEXPRESS
4:45 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Daytona Speedway -
We used to do "Turtle Patrols" to make sure no turtles were headed out of Lake Lloyd onto the track. Now they will need to do "Bass Patrols" in the "Gulf of Lloyd".
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2157
1696. WPBHurricane05
4:41 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Lol Now you can charge people to water ski in your back yard...


Good idea. LOL

You should see Daytona Speedway- Link
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1695. SomeRandomTexan
4:39 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
No unfortunatley it doesn't mean no 'cane season WS but it does help reduce the long range storms... but it gives way for those fast formers in the GOM that give little time to prepare for
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1863
1693. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:38 PM GMT on May 23, 2009


interesting invest near Hong Kong, China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 64 Comments: 54796
1692. Levi32
4:38 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
98B in the Bay of Bengal could turn into a problem for Bangladesh. It's over 30C waters and getting more aligned with an upper high aloft. The monsoon low over India should direct this thing almost due north over the next 3 days. It's having a few problems organizing but once it consolidates there will be few things hindering intensification.





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
1691. WPBHurricane05
4:35 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
For some reason, people are having an urge to speed down my street right in the middle of "New Lake". Almost had a few accidents.

I can't even imagine what it looks like in Daytona Beach.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1690. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:35 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWO
DEPRESSION BOB02-2009
17:30 PM IST May 23 2009
======================================

Subject: Depression over west central Bay of Bengal and cyclone alert for West Bengal coast.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Depression BOB02-2009 over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered 16.5N 88.0E, or about 470 km south-southeast of Paradip, 600 km south of Sagar Island and 650 km south-southwest of Khepupara, Bangladesh.

Satellite imagery indicates persistant organized convection. The Dvorak Intensity of the system is T1.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over area between 11.0N and 18.5N and west of 90.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C around the system.

3 Minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with a central pressure of 994 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system's center.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind close over the region is around 10-20 knots. The system lies close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 17.0N in association with the anticyclonic circulation over east central Bay located to the east-northeast of the system center. There is a feeble under tropospheric trough in westerlies roughly runny along 80.0E to the north of 200N. Sea surface temperature are also favorable for intensification as it is 0.50 to 1.00C above normal. Majority of NWP models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly direction and cross West Bengal/Bangladesh coast near 89.0E (about 100 kms east of Sagar Island) between 1200 PM UTC and 1500 PM UTC, May 25th.

Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 64 Comments: 54796
1689. WPBHurricane05
4:33 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
The rain has finally lightened up. Link

I got 8 inches of rain in 6 hours, plus 2 new lakes in my front yard and back yard.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1688. Levi32
4:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Good morning all.

Well what do ya know, NHC didn't name it. Maybe they will in the next update. Looked pretty warm-core to me, especially with those AMSU images Drak posted. That was awesome watching it ramp up yesterday, too bad most of it was during the middle of the night for me.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26780
1687. JRRP
4:28 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Don't be so sure.. 2006 already had a nino by this point. Im leaning in terms of numbers, 2004.

ok thanks
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7080
1686. WPBHurricane05
4:27 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
The first storm in 2004 formed on July 31st. After that, all hell broke loose.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1684. TheDawnAwakening
4:23 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Any severe weather graphics from the NAM and GFS?
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 263 Comments: 4785
1683. Tazmanian
4:23 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting JRRP:
this season will be like 2006
i think....



nop
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5101 Comments: 118560
1682. CybrTeddy
4:22 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting JRRP:
this season will be like 2006
i think....


Don't be so sure.. 2006 already had a nino by this point. Im leaning in terms of numbers, 2004.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 26102
1681. WPBHurricane05
4:21 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If a Strong Nino develops by September, we wont see the effects of it till December. It tends to lag as you guys recal with the 2004 season. Look how late they got off, dang late July.


Late season starts allow the water to really warm.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
1679. CybrTeddy
4:19 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
If a Strong Nino develops by September, we wont see the effects of it till December. It tends to lag as you guys recal with the 2004 season. Look how late they got off, dang late July.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 26102
1678. JRRP
4:18 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
this season will be like 2006
i think....
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7080
1677. Drakoen
4:16 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
1676. Drakoen
4:14 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
CFS now predicts a strong El Nino to develop:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
1674. Drakoen
4:13 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857
1673. JRRP
4:12 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Link
strong Niño ?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7080
1672. Drakoen
4:10 PM GMT on May 23, 2009
Quoting StormW:


Roger that...but I don't think it warmed above mid level...if that.


Yes it did:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32857

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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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