A Christmas wish--more data!!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:48 PM GMT on December 25, 2008

Well, it's been another crazy weather year in 2008 here on planet Earth. As we look back on the year, I want to thank all of you for participating in the unique community we've built here at Weather Underground to help document, understand, mourn, and celebrate the ways weather impacts our lives. Special thanks go to all of you who helped out those affected by this year's destructive hurricanes. As we look ahead towards 2009, I'm sure you're wondering what's on my Christmas wish list for the coming year. Hmmm, let's see--let's start with money to fund improved hurricane intensity forecasts, a new QuikSCAT satellite...and more data!

More data, more data,
Right now and not later.
Our storms are distressing,
Our problems are pressing.
We can brook no delay
For theorists to play.
Let us repair
To the principle sublime:
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

For data are solid,
Though dull and though stolid;
Consider their aptness,
Their matter-of-factness.
Theory is confusion,
A snare and delusion,
A dastardly dare,
A culpable crime.
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

No need to be weary
Of the mysteries of theory.
We only must look
At the data we took.
Immediately inspired,
Grasp the answers required.
What are so rare,
As reason and rhyme?
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

More data, more data,
From pole to equator;
We'll gain our salvation
Through mass mensuration.
Thence flows our might,
Our sweetness, our light.
Our spirits full fair, our souls sublime:
Measure everything, everywhere,
All the time.

It shall come to pass, even in our days,
That ignorance shall vanish and doubt disappear.
Then shall men survey with tranquil gaze
The ordered elements shorn of all fear.

Thus to omniscience shall we climb,
Measuring everything, everywhere, all the time.


Poem credit: A. Fleisher. Originally published in 1957 in the Proc. Sixth Weather Radar Conf., American Meteorology Society, Boston, MA, P. 59. Slightly modified by Peter Black, NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

Happy Holidays, everyone!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Storm Force Winds Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy
3:50 PM WDT December 27 2008
===============================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Billy, CAT 2 [982 hPa] located 15.1S 112.9E or 770 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported moving west-northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0

Storm-Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in western quadrant

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
=================================
12 HRS: 15.2S 112.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.6S 111.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.5S 108.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.4S 106.1E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
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Quoting afj3:

Wait. I thought they chased Proenza out because he really wanted a new QuickSCAT satellite and they said it wasn't necessary. Now a year later it is? Am I wrong?


Just a little joke, the space shuttle is incapable of reaching that altitude. We do need a new QuickSCAT.
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wow that video post is widescreened, LOL
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Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast For Area Between 125E-142E
2:15 PM ACST December 27 2008
================================

A Tropical Low, [1003 hPa] located over the Cape York Peninsula is moving westwards. This low pressure system will move into the Gulf of Carpentaria overnight and is expected to continue on a west or southwest track, to be over land in the Roper-McArthur District on Monday. Some deepening may occur as the system moves through the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria and a northwest monsoonal burst develops to the north. However, the low is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone during the next three days.
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A Look Back At Hurricane Ike

Caused 27 Billion dollars USD damage

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55. afj3
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Suggestion: add boosters to Space Shuttle to make it able to reach altitude of QuickSCAT satellite. :D

Wait. I thought they chased Proenza out because he really wanted a new QuickSCAT satellite and they said it wasn't necessary. Now a year later it is? Am I wrong?
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Happy and safe Holidays to all of the wunderground bloggers who have entertained and educated me over the last several years...

Blessings and Light,

Texas Sassy
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With warm weather and rain moving into S. Ontario tomorrow, anyone know if we might be getting any thunderstorms? I wonder what it must be like to live in tornado alley...but maybe global warming will cause a shift of the alley to be right over us in the decades to come. The municipality (in other words, town, city, township, etc) that I live in has seen more than two tornadoes in the past decade, but they've all been fairly weak. We've had about 36 thunderstorm days this year, and I've seen about seven rainbows, both of which are way above average. We also had one late-October hailstorm, and another on Victoria Day that wasn't accompanied by a thunderstorm. A wild year, indeed! The same low that caused the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak spawned two days of temperatures higher than 15C (60F) in mid-January, melting my then-8-ft-tall snowman. We've also been hit by the remnants of Ike, and those of Fay and Gustav gave us drizzle. I've taken about 1000 pictures of clouds this year (no kidding!), and the clear night skies this summer and fall allowed me to find a great deal of deep-sky objects through my telescope. Cheers to an interesting (and hopefully not so destructive) 2009!
P.S. The "modify comment" and "quote" buttons suck. They don't even work about 60% of the time, and just result in a reloading of the whole page.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Happy holidays. And with all due respect for stormchasers, I would wish for a VERY boring year for you. ;-) After surviving a Super Tuesday EF4 that took out our house, I am ready for a quiet weather year. Might not get it, though. I'm having a panic attack over the weather moving into Arkansas tomorrow...

Anyone want to trade a place where there are no tornadoes for a nice hobby acreage in tornado alley in Arkansas??? LOL.
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40. flslp

Verrry carefully.

Greetings to all.
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I hope everyone had a Merry Xmas.
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Slummed the weather wire & updated my blog. Waves may be flat in the gulf but they are over 20' in CA. This was most interesting..
140mph winds damaged Reno's NWS radar


surfmom~ Thanks, that's a skill blogging taught me. As for the herd, mine seem a little lazy too. I think it's the heat. I hope my winter rye makes it through this coming spell.
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Skye - great post #45 - you are always so GOOD at saying so MUCH in so few words -- whoo hooo WU!
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December FLATS -- through the end of the year - SE under zonal flow - not allowing big lows to drop in the Gulf.. Eventually the high will break down and move away -- till then I am starving for waves.

Nice day East of I75 In SWFL - The polo club has come to life.... all the barns are full, every pasture filled with horses.... the trails are busy with grooms riding and working out sets of horses.... the track is filled with constant activity. Our horses were rather pokey and lazy -- so either they are feeling the incoming humidity and heat or they may have been up playing and causing a ruckus in the pasture. We thought they seemed a bit tired so we dropped a lap off the workout.

They have game tomorrow, and we decided better to play rested then tired.
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Happy Holidays everyone!

Jeff, Devs & Admin~ Thank you for this weather playland you've created & maintained... Jeff your blog, time, teachings & musings here, we sensed it would be a force, but wow, this year really scratched the potental of what this gathering can do.

Here is one for the 2008 recods..
Mississippi Sets New Record for Tornadoes in 2008
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Happy Holidays to all my WU Friends! I hope everyone has a great New Year ! :o) Now I gotta grab a shovel and dig out for the second day in a row. Vortfix, your heavy snow diagram definitely nailed me!!!
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Dr.Masters,
Will you be writing a 2008 Year in Review? Any Predictions for 2009?

Thank you to turtlehurricane, Jp, stormw, Weather456 and so on for continuing the progress of WU.
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It's the day after Christmas "how to" problem. Received an indoor/outdoor basic weather gizmo. The problem is "How does one attach an anemometer 20 feet up? Thanks.
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Dr Jeff,
A belated Merry Christmas / Happy Holiday greeting to you and family... and to all contributors in WUland!!!

Yes, I'll second that wish for more data!
Hoping that Santa delivers what was announced / promised over 3 years ago for the KHUM airport - an updated, real 24 hr AWOS / ASOS station built up to NWS standards for Houma LA... still no sign of it... LOL, the airport shut down everything 2 days before Gustav arrived, so no useful data was obtained from there... or 3 LUMCON stations in S Terrebonne either... Does no good to have 'em and not maintain / use 'em! Thankfully, we had a few USGS obs in the southern coastal sections and the LSU AgCenter (LAIS) station (Sugarcane HUML1) in N Terrebonne (NW of Houma) to provide some reliable obs... Otherwise, pathetically sparse data has always been the rule in coastal LA...
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Thanks DOC for creating this space
where we can gather to celebrate,
mourn, learn, understand both
human and mother nature.

Blessed 2009 to you and yours.

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Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks, Dr. M

a new QuikSCAT satellite

Amen!
The current one is what? 7 years beyond design life? Could fail completely at any time. Not to mention that if it continues to work, a second QuikSCAT would be in a slightly different orbit and our site revisit time would be smaller.


Suggestion: add boosters to Space Shuttle to make it able to reach altitude of QuickSCAT satellite. :D
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Thanks, Dr. M

a new QuikSCAT satellite

Amen!
The current one is what? 7 years beyond design life? Could fail completely at any time. Not to mention that if it continues to work, a second QuikSCAT would be in a slightly different orbit and our site revisit time would be smaller.
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Hmm, it looks like instead of snow, we'll have two days of rain starting tomorrow, and warm weather, which could wash most of the snow away. Also, great poem, but since when does "data" rhyme with "later" or "equator"?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
I hope everyone had a great Christman and will enjoy a wonderful New Year. The weather in SWFL is wonderful today unless you want high surf. Had to change ski plans for the post Christmas break since it is so warm in Banner Elk. Hope 2009 brings cold and snow to the hills.
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Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Happy Boxing Day WUGers! Working & lurking, so, let's not burn that wrapping paper, OK?

18.
Another Haiku?
I said I wouldn't do it,
But I did anyway.


Boxing Day is almost like Thanksgiving and 'Black Friday' put together.

Lots of sport, day off from work, lots of eating (From the day before) and lots of shopping. And of course, seeing yet more relatives.


The amount of sales and early opening times (Not quite 5am, as it is still a bank holiday after all...) is the most of the year. Because a lot of retailers are struggling, today will be quite important to them - as will the next few days.

It's great. :)
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Happy Boxing Day WUGers! Working & lurking, so, let's not burn that wrapping paper, OK?

18.
Another Haiku?
I said I wouldn't do it,
But did anyway.
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Merry christmas on to everyone on this wonderful blog and here's wishing that in 2009 all the storms are interesting but ultimately recurve out to sea hurting neither homes nor any of God's creatures. It's christmas breezy
78degrees, with a rare passing shower in St. James Barbados.
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Hope you and your family had a wonderful Christmas, Dr. M, as well as everyone else here on WU.

Thanks again for all you do!
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Morning All -- whew -- sipping my wake-up juice, (coffee) enjoying 67 degrees in SWFL/Gulf is 64, waiting for the dawn to light things up a bit - walk the dog and then head out east to the Polo Barns. Been nice weather for the horses track workouts... wish it was a wee bit cooler for when they have to play polo... but I'm never one that looks to welcome El Norte

Total flatspell in the Gulf - Good for the kayakers, sail boats, fishermen -- even the skim boards had a good bump yesterday -- but no waves for Christmas this year. 2006 provided groundswell, 2007 we had a coldfront -- kinda like the economy -- FLAT --

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Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
Forecast for west of 160E, south of 10S
2:30pm AEST December 26 2008
================================

At the present time there is a tropical low near 11.0S 145.0E, east of Cape York Penisular, moving west slowly and is expected to crosses the northern part of Cape York Saturday morning with winds below 25 knots. The system will continue west into the SW Gulf for Sunday and develop further.
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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Hurricane Force Winds Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy
3:50 PM WDT December 26 2008
===============================

At 3:00 PM WDT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy, CAT 3 [960 hPa] located 15.8S 114.3E or 610 km north northwest of Karratha and 680 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0

Hurricane-Force Winds
===================
20 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
80 NM from the center

Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
=================================
12 HRS: 15.2S 113.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 15.4S 112.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 16.7S 110.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.2S 108.1E - 40 knots (CAT 2)

Remarks:
Billy continues to move steadily to the northwest away from the mainland under the ongoing influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. Position based primarily on microwave fixes [eg 0240UTC TRMM 37GHz]. An eye is no longer apparent on IR imagery though Dvorak DT numbers remain at 5.0 based on embedded centre pattern [Black]. However, FT biased to MET/Pat. 4.5 given the known bias of embedded centre pattern. CI held at 5.0.

Some weakening is evident under moderate NE shear with microwave imagery showing a weakness in the convection on the NE side.

The current WNW to NW track is likely to continue for the next 12 hours or so until a weakness in the ridge allows a more SW to WSW track. Some model guidance suggests a stronger recurvature to the SSW although this may depend on the system being more intense than what is forecast. Further gradual weakening is forecast under the moderate shear and slightly cooler sea temperatures, though it is likely that the system will retain TC intensity into next week over open waters.
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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year....from Catfuraplenty and the gang to all WU'ers and especially Dr. Masters. You all are the tops.
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Merry Christmas to all the WU gang and all the members! Please drive safe thru the dense fog along the IH-10 corridor here in Orange,Tx & SW Louisiana. Lets have a great New Year and help stay above water!! RL, can't wait to try oue the new gadgets coming next year. Froggy on the TX/LA line,,,Seabreeze6
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Merry Chirstmas Every Won.
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What a great caring family of people for the most part that have never even met...did you think it would be like this Dr?
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Merry Christmas!

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Look, a weather poem
Written fifty years ago
Yet, how true today.
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Weather is going to be active in the midwest over the next couple of days
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Merry Christmas and Happy Newf Year from the Carswell Family. Thank you to all the Wunder Photographers for sharing their photos. I LOVE Wunderground :)

Link

NEWFondly Yours,
Dorothy
In Remembrance
Barton Bay's Heart of Oak "Willow" - Daughter of Shipwheel's Twist of Fate and Angel Sings
1/24/92 - 10/10/03, 11 years, 8 months and 18 days
...'tip us Heart of Oak' Come cheer up my lads, 'tis to glory we steer',
Heart of Oak are our ships, Heart of Oak are our men, We always are ready,
Steady, boys, steady ...


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Greetings.
Just stopping in to say, I am Stuffed !! 'Tis the season for overindulgence.
Hope everyone had a great day. I certainly did. Whew.....
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Reporting a 5.8 magnitude Earthquake 10 miles below and a little West Vancouver Island today. Have seen no reports available as to damage or possible Tsunami generation. May be related to the swarms they have been having recently.
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happy christmas merry new year o i got that backwards anyway all the best for the year yet to come
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Merry Christmas everyone, I hope your day was as nice as mine.
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Hey E - Merry Christmas to you!!! Things are awesome here with weather...almost 78 today. Beautiful day. No gnats either!
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Hey Mel -- checking in and out -- got a Rumbus in the house today -- Hoping your weather is as good as mine!!!!

note asap to you!!
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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