Laura dying; tropics look quiet

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:45 PM GMT on October 01, 2008

Well, it's October, and we're into the final month of peak hurricane season. Things look pretty quiet right now, and I don't see anything on the horizon meriting concern. Subtropical Storm Laura is almost dead, done in by cold North Atlantic waters. Visible satellite images show very little heavy thunderstorm activity, and Laura is currently transitioning into an extratropical storm. The remains of Laura will probably bring 45 mph winds to the coast of the British Isles on Sunday.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Laura.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A trough of low pressure extends from the Western Caribbean northeastwards over Cuba and the Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity is relatively weak and scattered along this trough. None of the models predict development in the Western Caribbean along this trough over the coming week. Development off the east coast of Florida, near the northwestern Bahamas, is possible late this week, but any such storm would move northeastward out to sea.

Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity relief efforts
I've agreed to act as an advisor for the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity relief efforts spearheaded by Patrap, Presslord, and StormJunkie. I'll be participating in a conference call with them this afternoon, and will write up a summary of the effort that I plan to post tomorrow.

I'll post an Atlantic hurricane outlook for the month of October in Thursday's post.

Jeff Masters

Walking on water (dlegge)
Walking on water
Crystal Beach (BlueFire)
Hurricane Ike left some homes standing
Crystal Beach

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490. StormJunkie
2:32 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Never attribute to malice what can more easily be explained by incompetence.

Or even more simply put...
Occam's Razor
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17216
489. TampaSpin
10:30 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
good evening everyone.....
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488. Hhunter
2:32 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
houstonian it does not bother me..I wish no one died. but the cover up of facts bothers me greatly..
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487. StormJunkie
2:28 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Well said Houstonian, and I am very sorry for your community. Although I have only been in the outlying areas like Winnie to Bridge City, I am sure that your assessment is fairly accurate. I would also guess that most of the dead are from Bolivar as opposed to Galveston?

That said, any thoughts on my earlier post from a local?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17216
486. scaldisnoel
2:21 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
The cover up is not the dead or missing which will come out in due time. It is the lack of urgency shown by the likes of Lyda Ann Thomas as well as the likes of KHOU in the early am hours of Friday morning prior to Ike making landfall.


I think that the primary lessons of Ike are:
1) Some government officials looked at a Category 2 ranking and thought that the storm wouldn't be very bad - so they failed to understand the severity of the storm and didn't warn the residents soon enough.
2) Too many people ignored the warnings that were given.
3) The media is failing in its job of reporting on the death and destruction that Ike caused, because the worst of it didn't occur in the heart of a major media market.

I have a rule of thumb that I always apply to government, but applies to the media as well in this case:
Never attribute to malice what can more easily be explained by incompetence.
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484. StormJunkie
2:24 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
You cannot have one set of instructions saying 'You will die' and another saying 'we should be fine, always have been'.

Have not found a better way to sum it up myself. Fine job of putting the picture in a nutshell DigTek.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17216
483. Hhunter
2:27 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
yea yea yea....houstonian...
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482. futuremet
2:26 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Hurricane IKE eyewall/stormsurge

my youtube

Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
481. indianrivguy
10:22 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
The cover up is not the dead or missing which will come out in due time. It is the lack of urgency shown by the likes of Lyda Ann Thomas as well as the likes of KHOU in the early am hours of Friday morning prior to Ike making landfall.


I strongly agree with you. Neil Frank downplayed the NHC forecasts the whole time. Suggesting every time that they were to strong/high/fast/dangerous in their forecast and that "he" didn't think it would be "that" bad. As he was the former director of the NHC he has some strong local clout.. the idiot politicians bough "his" version because it required less action.
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479. Hhunter
2:01 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Link

not proof of conspiracy just amazing story of survival
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478. SWFLDigTek
2:21 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
The cover up is not the dead or missing which will come out in due time. It is the lack of urgency shown by the likes of Lyda Ann Thomas as well as the likes of KHOU in the early am hours of Friday morning prior to Ike making landfall.


That I do agree with. You cannot have one set of instructions saying 'You will die' and another saying 'we should be fine, always have been'.
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476. StormJunkie
2:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
The cover up is not the dead or missing which will come out in due time. It is the lack of urgency shown by the likes of Lyda Ann Thomas in the days leading up to landfall as well as the likes of KHOU in the early am hours of Friday morning prior to Ike making landfall.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 17216
475. SWFLDigTek
2:17 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
I guess in the end nobody has to tell me that a lot of people lost thier lives in Texas, if you kept us with the news the evidence was there to be put together. If say 30% of 10000 stayed and they found 500 alive I do not need someone to tell me that 2500 died...

figures used only as an example

I clearly remember thinking, "wow, a lot of people have died down there".
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474. scaldisnoel
2:06 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:
Link

more cover up info


Again, you have pointed to a link that suggests that the media is failing to do their job, not the Governor. Also, your "evidence" of a cover up is a blogger from San Francisco, who doesn't seem to have any first hand knowledge, and is relying on second hand stories and very limited anecdotal evidence of anything other than poor media coverage.
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473. GeoffreyWPB
10:08 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
so..since there is a cover up in Texas..and logically Texans know...and Perry is part of it..then Obama has a chance in Texas..correct? Or don't Texans care?
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472. Drakoen
2:09 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
850mb vorticity increased with a surface low at 20N 85W in the Caribbean. Probably the only thing to watch now.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 32704
471. SWFLDigTek
2:06 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting scaldisnoel:


Not sure what you mean that the media would "take a big hit". If someone in the media does their job and reports on a big story that has been otherwise ignored, they end up getting a Pulitzer.


I am thinking that many would protest the 'un-ending parade of death' if the news started out each day with X more found dead. And fail to see what it would change? They cannot bring any of them back...
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470. scaldisnoel
1:58 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting SWFLDigTek:


Maybe, but you know the media would take a big hit from every direction if they started to show rows of bodybags...


Not sure what you mean that the media would "take a big hit". If someone in the media does their job and reports on a big story that has been otherwise ignored, they end up getting a Pulitzer.
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469. Hhunter
1:55 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Link

more cover up info
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467. HoldenBeach
9:54 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
I must be in the wrong place. I came here to learn about the weather, not to read about other people's political views, regardless of how important the financial bailout truly is.
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465. KEHCharleston
9:56 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
RE: 457. Hhunter
Source??

Oh, and thank you folks for the links for glossary/abbreviations etc.
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464. SWFLDigTek
1:54 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting scaldisnoel:


So far nothing you have stated indicates a cover up or a failure on the part of Gov. Perry. Like I said earlier, the national media has certainly ignored the story. However, there is no evidence of cover up that you suggested. It is a big cleanup and recovery effort. To suggest that the Governor is responsible for the job that the media should be doing is like saying that your dentist is to blame if he doesn't diagnose your high blood pressure. Put the blame where it belongs.


Maybe, but you know the media would take a big hit from every direction if they started to show rows of bodybags...
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462. scaldisnoel
1:53 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Please talk politics and the financial mess elsewhere. I come to this blog to read about tropical weather and related discussion.
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460. scaldisnoel
1:47 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/morenews/6027458.html

and the no fly zone are proof.

Also the numerous reports from people associated with the search of lots of bodies....lots and lots of bodies...


So far nothing you have stated indicates a cover up or a failure on the part of Gov. Perry. Like I said earlier, the national media has certainly ignored the story. However, there is no evidence of cover up that you suggested. It is a big cleanup and recovery effort. To suggest that the Governor is responsible for the job that the media should be doing is like saying that your dentist is to blame if he doesn't diagnose your high blood pressure. Put the blame where it belongs.
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458. indianrivguy
9:42 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
Celia.. laughed my fanny off, already saved and posted it on another board, thanks.
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456. GeoffreyWPB
9:49 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
true..you need proof...not suspicion or gut feeling.
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455. GeoffreyWPB
9:46 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
my 401 has been tanking for a few quarters..today, i had a fridge repair guy over, and he would not take a credit card. His reason, the current state of the ecomony.
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454. scaldisnoel
1:45 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:


I am sorry, but I am a life long Republican and Governor Perry supporter and Yes, I think he has let the state of Texas down by helping hide the true scale of the dead and missing. That is my opinion based on strong incidental fact. I challenge you to proove me wrong.


Sorry, but the burden of proof is on the person making an accusation, not the one pointing out a lack of evidence.
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453. Hhunter
1:45 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/morenews/6027458.html

and the no fly zone are proof.

Also the numerous reports from people associated with the search of lots of bodies....lots and lots of bodies...
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452. CybrTeddy
1:46 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting Celia1970:
Hey aquak9, I've missed your commentary. Glad your back.

Have you seen the new Dollar Bill issued by the Treasury Department today?

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting





Looks like me when I woke up that one morning to Super Category 5 Hurricane Wilma.
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451. JupiterFL
1:44 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:


there is still the house.

Still a sad day in my mind.
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450. SWFLDigTek
1:43 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting StormW:
444. Coldwaterlover 9:40 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
Hey Storm W, I dont see your blog up there anymore...I read it every morning before I start my work, is there a new link?


On the tropical/hurricane page...under Doc M's pic...or...just click on my name.

I didn't update today though.


You might want to look yourself Storm, appears the good Dr. has altered his featured blogs list...
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449. JupiterFL
1:43 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:


I am sorry, but I am a life long Republican and Governor Perry supporter and Yes, I think he has let the state of Texas down by helping hide the true scale of the dead and missing. That is my opinion based on strong incidental fact. I challenge you to proove me wrong.

Can you prove your statement?
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448. Hhunter
1:43 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting JupiterFL:

Don't these guys work for us? Pitchforks anyone?


there is still the house.
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446. Hhunter
1:36 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting scaldisnoel:


Nothing in that story suggests that Gov. Perry is "covering up" anything, or that he hasn't "come clean" about dead and missing. If anyone has clearly failed on this, it is the national media, who are ignoring the story of 400 still missing from Ike. In their minds, it is apparently so "last month".


I am sorry, but I am a life long Republican and Governor Perry supporter and Yes, I think he has let the state of Texas down by helping hide the true scale of the dead and missing. That is my opinion based on strong incidental fact. I challenge you to proove me wrong.
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445. JupiterFL
1:39 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Senate passes bailout bill.

Don't these guys work for us? Pitchforks anyone?
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444. Coldwaterlover
1:37 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Hey Storm W, I dont see your blog up there anymore...I read it every morning before I start my work, is there a new link?
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443. Seastep
1:28 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
Quoting StormW:
408. Seastep 8:52 PM EDT on October 01, 2008
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, StormW's update are interesting, and I always look at his blog for the meaning of the abbreviations commonly used in this blog.


LMAO! Sorry about being so late with these, but I generally read back a few and you threw me a curveball. ;)

I was on one time (can't remember when) and there was an abbr that I didn't know... went to Storm's blog an... EGADS!... no index in his post!

I was crushed. Don't ever do that again Storm! ;)


What were you looking for?


I think you misunderstood... it would have been there but you didn't have ANY abbr's.

You did on the very next post... no worries... I think it was only 3 hours that I didn't have my translation available.
Member Since: September 9, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 3420
441. tshirtgirl75
1:29 AM GMT on October 02, 2008
well I guess I am off to sleep knowing all is right with tropic world.....
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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