North Carolina coastal storm winding up; 93L disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:14 PM GMT on September 24, 2008

It's tough to tell what tropical disturbance 93L is up to, as the storm has significantly deteriorated overnight. Dominican Republic radar is down, and visible satellite loops show little heavy thunderstorm activity or organization to the cloud pattern. However, pressures at Punta Cana on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic are the lowest they've been for the week--1006 mb. I expect 93L will regenerate north of the Dominican Republic today and spread heavy rains to that country and Puerto Rico this afternoon and Thursday.

In the Dominican Republic, heavy rain has been limited to the extreme eastern end, near Punta Cana, where satellite estimates indicate up to ten inches of rain has fallen. Rainfall in the capital, Santo Domingo, has been about three inches, according to three personal weather stations there. Additional heavy rains of 2-4 inches are likely today through Thursday in portions of the Dominican Republic.

Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from 93L, and I expect only an additional 2-4 inches will there. Heaviest rains in the Turks and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas should be in the 2-4 inch range. Western Puerto Rico may receive an additional 2-4 inches, as well.

The forecast
Wind shear remains near 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-25 knots for the remainder of the week. The computer models take 93L northwards to a landfall in New England or Nova Scotia on Saturday or Sunday, and I doubt the storm would hit as anything stronger than a 55 mph tropical storm. The storm is too disorganized at present, and there is too much shear in the forecast to allow 93L to become a hurricane.


Figure 1. Observed precipitation for Puerto Rico from 93L. Image credit: NOAA.

North Carolina coastal storm
An extratropical "Nor'easter" storm is developing off the coast of North Carolina today, and this low has the potential to acquire tropical characteristics and become a subtropical storm by Friday as it moves slowly west-southwest. Cape Hatteras, NC radar shows a modest but expanding area of rain off the coast. The Diamond Shoals buoy near Cape Hatteras reported 12 foot waves and sustained winds of 29 mph at 8 am EDT this morning. Sustained winds of 38 mph were observed there last night at 10 pm EDT. Winds should increase to 40-50 mph along the coast of North Carolina tonight through Thursday as the storm intensifies, and this unnamed storm will affect North Carolina like a weak tropical storm would. Expect tide levels of 3-6 feet above normal along the coast, and rain amounts of 2-3 inches. The storm is currently tapping some relatively modest moisture from the Atlantic, but total precipitable water imagery show a large region of deep tropical moisture associated with 93L is approaching North Carolina. The coastal low should be able to draw in this moisture on Thursday, potentially aiding it in transitioning to a subtropical storm. Wind shear is currently 30 knots over the low, but may fall to 20 knots on Thursday. The increased moisture and lower shear may allow the coastal low to transition to a subtropical storm before it makes landfall Friday morning near the North Carolina/South Carolina border.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
Cape Hatteras, NC weather

The Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE" continues
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

1.) We have reached a total of $3500 in our Next Truck Challenge....which is enough to fund another truckload of requested supplies to Bridge City and Winnie TX...will leave first of next week...Violet and I will be poorer financially...but richer in the ways that matter...y'all render me speechless...

2.) Patrap is rolling there shortly in a truck so as to arrive at first light....

3.) I don't even wanna talk about the next challenge...


If we contribute heartily to the next challenge, you'll see why Paul does not want to talk about it! A testimonial from a beneficiary of a Portlight aid shipment:

From: gulfcoastDrifter 3:02 PM EDT on September 23, 2008
"I live in Bridge City off of FM 408 and want to say thank you for coming out here to help out."


Figure 2. Portlight delivering supplies to a Winnie-Stowell Red Cross shelter. Apparently the canned cokes (not provided by Portlight) were only for lineman. The residents were only being allowed to drink water. Needless to say, the residents were very happy to see us, although there was some confusion as to whether they could actually get the supplies we delivered. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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63. Engine2
10:03 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Post 56 -
Yes, we will have to see what the 2PM Models do for 94L although from what Storm was saying, it does look like a NC/SC border landfall. Then again how will 94L and 93L impact each other
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
62. NEwxguy
10:00 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Neverseensnow:


Like the one the Fins used to spank the Pats?


Ouch!That was a low blow,since that will be your only win this season,I'll let you enjoy it
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61. cynvision
10:03 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting largeeyes:
94L is under 30kt of shear? Wow. IF it was under a significantly lower shear environment, it would be a nasty son of a gun.
Isn't sheer a different sort of thing for a (and here I don't know the proper name for it) extra-tropical storm? Isn't this 'sheer' the wind what helped the low spin up on the front? The sat images have shown differing directions of cloud movement for days.

Is it possible the sheer you mention is the nasty wind I have blowing by my house today?
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60. OSUWXGUY
1:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Good Morning Everyone!

94L is starting to look more like a subtropical/tropical system than the extra-tropical frontal system that it originated from. There is some moderately deep convection over the CoC and it appears that right over the center there is moderately low shear - as the cloud tops are not being blown off in any direction.

As I said yesterday, the interesting thing about this system is that there is HIGH shear all around it...but because it is in the trough axis, the shear is fairly low.

Also unique is the relatively cold air aloft. The morning upper air charts show -13°C at 500mb...whereas most tropical sounding (like down by 93L) have 500mb temps around -5 to -8°C range.

What this cold air means is that the atmosphere can be unstable with cooler SSTs and lower Dewpoints.

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59. PensacolaDoug
1:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Neverseensnow:


Like the one the Fins used to spank the Pats?




Go Fish!
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58. thelmores
2:02 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
94L is indeed "winding up"....... cool and "breezy" this morning on the S. Carolina coast.... will be interesting to watch this storm "transition"....

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57. teckchick
2:00 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting killdevilmax:

Is the sound over it's banks? All our water is yours now


Can you come get your water?? Friend just called and said the EMS here is saying that it going to become named because it is separating from the front. Guess time will tell.
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56. killdevilmax
2:00 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
orcasystems post 54

The models really have a handle on 94. (gagging) How come it's not on WU site??
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55. Tsapp2008
1:59 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
The NHC now has the Invest up on there sight.
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54. Orcasystems
1:56 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Both systems



Click to enlarge
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53. killdevilmax
1:57 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting teckchick:


I am in Hatteras, lights are blinking ........ grrrrrrrrrrrrrr

Is the sound over it's banks? All our water is yours now
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52. largeeyes
1:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
94L is under 30kt of shear? Wow. IF it was under a significantly lower shear environment, it would be a nasty son of a gun.
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51. Neverseensnow
1:55 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:


Looks like a football offensive diagram on a Sunday morning


Like the one the Fins used to spank the Pats?
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50. Nashda
9:42 AM AST on September 24, 2008
Quoting benirica:
Seriously Doctor? ...
MORE rain?
you've got to be kidding me!

Bring down the kayaks


Same here....we need floater to keep the island afloat!!! Thanks!! =)
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49. cynvision
9:53 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting teckchick:


Are you on the coast? My wind chimes are standing straight up, I think this thing is going to be worse than predicted.
I'm coastal SC, 15 west miles in from Hilton Head. The 1250Z metar for the island airport has NE/E 15kt gusting to 25kt. That report is from the coast itself. I expect gusts at my house are like that but the windspeed didn't strike me as a constant 15kt. We're still in the dry air on the west side of the greater circulation. Maybe this is just a potent spell as it gets going and once it's done it's going to settle down? I do think the local weather guys underestimated winds and coastal flooding on last night's news. This NE wind is just piling the tides into the salt marshes.

My blog has a few general observations about the last few days.Blog Sept. Summary Link
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48. Engine2
9:53 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
The visible of 94L shows its wrapping into its coc. Looks like this thing is going to start cranking
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
47. teckchick
1:52 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting killdevilmax:

Techchick- where are you? Are you talking about Hwy 12 on Hatteras Island? I'm in KDH. Read Storm W update. Rain is forecast 4-5 inches through Sunday, per The Doc.


I am in Hatteras, lights are blinking ........ grrrrrrrrrrrrrr
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46. Squid28
1:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
31
Water and Sewer are operational, but I think it comes from the next municipality (La Porte), no power at the house, but it really does not matter. Using a generator to run fans and saws for the "great gut out 2008"
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45. Cotillion
1:51 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
So let me get this straight. 94L was apparently the proposed Nor'Easter, but it may turn out to be tropical or subtropical in nature?

Always had a feeling that Kyle was destined to be surfing the Atlantic.

Might be right.

Just hope that my gut isn't right with Laura...
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44. Orcasystems
1:50 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Enola:

Orca, someone else was having problems with this earlier. Try the main page

Got it figured out.. when in doubt.. look somewhere else and pour another coffee
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43. largeeyes
1:47 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
7-14ft seas at the beach near here. I may have to head down and see that.
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42. Orcasystems
1:49 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Complete update

Carols System 94L ... complete with Models
Carols System 94L ... with Cloud Cover
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41. Enola
7:49 AM MDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog refresh

I would show 94L from the navy site... but I seem to be in some kind of disagreement with my ummmm compute

Orca, someone else was having problems with this earlier. Try the main page
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39. melwerle
1:46 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
I'm officially cold...and it's WINDY here this morning (duh) in GA. Went from 90 degree weather to 68 almost in one day it seems.

Lucky me, I get to fly in the morning - hopefully the winds will ease up a bit.
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38. killdevilmax
1:42 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting teckchick:


We are use to it :) we sure need the rain, just don't want a lot at once though. Highway 12 is already under water from the roaring ocean :(

Techchick- where are you? Are you talking about Hwy 12 on Hatteras Island? I'm in KDH. Read Storm W update. Rain is forecast 4-5 inches through Sunday, per The Doc.
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37. lawntonlookers
9:38 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Thanks Dr. Masters for the update. 93L sure doesn't look the same as it did yesterday afternoon. We will have to see what the heat of the day does to it.
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36. Engine2
9:44 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Storm - Maybe you can answer this:
What is the mechanism that will serve to steer 94L. Would its strength have any impact on its track?
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
35. Prgal
1:42 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting benirica:
Seriously Doctor? ...
MORE rain?
you've got to be kidding me!

Bring down the kayaks


**Sends a kayak to Benirica via blog**
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34. teckchick
1:41 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting cynvision:
I never thought the Nor'easter low would have been as powerful as it is now that it has gotten going. The wind gusts picked up at my home overnight. The windchimes had to come down off their hooks. I usually only do that in advance of a TS.


Are you on the coast? My wind chimes are standing straight up, I think this thing is going to be worse than predicted.
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33. conchygirl
9:41 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting MissNadia:

Easy for you to say!
you guys are pretty saturated. Take care.
Member Since: June 11, 2008 Posts: 24 Comments: 5910
32. Orcasystems
1:39 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Blog refresh

I would show 94L from the navy site... but I seem to be in some kind of disagreement with my ummmm compute
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31. theshepherd
1:37 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
17. Squid28
Portlight will see your message.
What about local water and sewer ?
God speed...God bless
ps. 10-4 on cookies being an oasis in a dessert of anxiety
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30. Engine2
9:40 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
What is the mechanism that will serve to steer 94L. Would its strength have any impact on its track?
Member Since: February 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 482
29. nolesjeff
1:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting teckchick:


Thanks for this blog, I did not know that NHC had put a L off the coast here. I was thinking earlier this week that it should be tropical, who knows, maybe it will get a name.


It is mentioned in this blog also?
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28. MissNadia
9:39 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
Well,looks like a windy rainy event for the carolinas on up the coast,but nothing to tough to take.

Easy for you to say!
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27. cynvision
9:40 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
I never thought the Nor'easter low would have been as powerful as it is now that it has gotten going. The wind gusts picked up at my home overnight. The windchimes had to come down off their hooks. I usually only do that in advance of a TS.
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26. teckchick
1:38 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting NEwxguy:
Well,looks like a windy rainy event for the carolinas on up the coast,but nothing to tough to take.


We are use to it :) we sure need the rain, just don't want a lot at once though. Highway 12 is already under water from the roaring ocean :(
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23. benirica
1:32 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Seriously Doctor? ...
MORE rain?
you've got to be kidding me!

Bring down the kayaks
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22. surfmom
8:36 AM EST on September 24, 2008
Squid28 - msg. relayed - candle lit prayers in mind for you in your family !
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21. teckchick
1:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

I have a new synopsis posted. I have an appointment this morning, but will be back after lunch.

Thanks!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS SEPTEMBER 24, 2008 ISSUED 9:25 A.M. EDT


Thanks for this blog, I did not know that NHC had put a L off the coast here. I was thinking earlier this week that it should be tropical, who knows, maybe it will get a name.
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20. NEwxguy
9:34 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Early model plot for 93L also shows 94L. The early models for 94L take it in all sorts of directions.



Looks like a football offensive diagram on a Sunday morning
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19. NEwxguy
9:29 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Well,looks like a windy rainy event for the carolinas on up the coast,but nothing to tough to take.
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18. farhaonhebrew
1:22 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Look 93L is back to here...not look good :(
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17. Squid28
1:30 PM GMT on September 24, 2008
Hello Everyone,
Just dropping in for the first time since Ike rearranged my world. We basically had our A** handed to us, we have lost our home, the majority of the contents and one car to the storm. My family and I are safe though, and that is all that really matters to me now. I am not staying on long, but wanted to express my thanks for all those who have in some way helped out with the recovery efforts. I don't know if I have been the beneficciary of anyones generosity on here or not but I know you have made some ones life better at least for a little while (a friend overnighted me some home made cookies, they were the best). I don't know how to send a mail message to Patrap and Press, but if some one could send this to them on my behalf I would apprecite it. They appear to have been very busy lately.

Sincereley,
Bryan
Shoreacres, TX

p.s. sorry of their are typo's I'm exhausted and just returning to work.
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14. champagnedrmz
9:27 AM EDT on September 24, 2008
Quoting Enola:
Quoting champagnedrmz:
Official according to Navy

Try this link



Thank you. I kept trying to link it and all it would do was say link. Don't know what is going on.
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13. Tazmanian
6:27 AM PDT on September 24, 2008
now 94L has a better ch then 93L dos
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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