Ike finally dies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 14, 2008

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Ike, which is now accelerating northeastward through Illinois. Ike is causing only modest trouble, dumping 2-5 inches of rain along its path and triggering scattered severe thunderstorms. Ike has generated just five tornadoes so far. Two small tornadoes affected Arkansas yesterday, and three were reported in Louisiana on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio at slight risk today of receiving tornadoes as Ike speeds by.

Ike's damage
In it's wake, Ike has left a Texas-sized disaster. AIR Worldwide, Inc, is estimating that total insured damage in Texas and Louisiana will be $10 billion. An additional $3.4 billion in damage was likely done in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave damage to oil platforms and the indirect loss of revenue attributable to reductions in oil and gas production. Using the usual rule of thumb that total hurricane damages are double the insured damages, the price tag for Ike will be about $27 billion. That would make Ike the third costliest hurricane in history. Only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did more damage than Ike has. So far, the death toll from Ike has been remarkably low, considering the level of damage this storm inflicted. Let's hope it stays this way.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ike approaching Galveston Island, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The white dot in the eye is the freighter Antalina, which got caught in the storm when its engines failed. A tugboat towed the Antilina safely to port on Saturday, and all 22 crewmen are well and the ship is undamaged. They'll have quite a story to tell (bet they barfed plenty)! Image Copyright ESA [2008], captured and processed by CSTARS University of Miami under license from Eurimage. CSTARS runs jointly with the Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency a Hurricane Watch program where they take routine SAR images of tropical storms during hurricane season.

The tropics are quiet
On Monday, for the first time since August 15, we will not have a named storm in the Atlantic. The area of disturbed weather (91L) near the Bahamas that we were watching has been done in by dry air and wind shear. There is another area of disturbed weather (92L) midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands we are watching. This disturbance is under about 25 knots of wind shear, and is suffering from dry air to its west. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. Wind shear is now expected to remain high, above 20 knots, for the next five days, and I don't see much chance of this system developing.

None of the computer models are forecasting development of any tropical storms in the coming week. We have hit a much-appreciated lull in this season's activity, but we're probably not all done yet. I'll discuss the long-term outlook for the coming two weeks in a blog entry on Tuesday.

My next post will be Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Intracostal City Flooded (jlp09550)
This is a helicopter shot from above Maxie's Grocery Store in Intracoastal City. (Vermilion Parish, Louisiana)
Intracostal City Flooded
Expressway Flood (edison)
Slow going prior to complete shut down.Ike gets Indiana too.
Expressway Flood

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266. IMA
2:05 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
254. GaleWeathers I don't think there is any conspiracy involved. They need to free-up the limited cell capacities for important communications; they need the airspace to be as uncluttered (not sure that'd be a good term for it but you get the idea) for rescue efforts; they are taking looters to the jail and mentioned that it's w/out a/c but it sounds like it's "sound" so I am doubt they would be taking them there if it wasn't o.k.

Also, in regards to the post about this possibly being another FEMA screw-up -- it's a little early to be saying that, as was stated in an earlier press conference. Did you see the truck driver that called in? They are having hell getting through. The people that are getting on the roads that don't need to be on the roads (my otherwise intelligent brother was one of them), the people out just "touring" getting in their way, the trees covering the roads, the water covering the roads, etc. are not helping them any
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264. hamla
7:07 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
maybe kyle????
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263. cmackla
7:06 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting Vero1:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 13N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 8N23W 8N40W 10N50W TO TRINIDAD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE APALACHEE BAY OF
FLORIDA TO A 26N86W NOT-WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CENTER TO A 21N91W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST
OF 94W. A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SAME
FRONT THAT ABSORBED THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IKE IN
THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF
30N93W 26N97W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL MEXICO FROM 19N TO 25N AND INLAND
TO 99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NORTHWARD BEYOND
CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 78W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO WESTERN JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
67W/68W FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND
72W INCLUDING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N26W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 23N47W TO 13N55W TO 7N58W IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH
OF GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH 32N58W TO
24N58W TO 21N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH
32N55W TO 27N61W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N29W.

$$
MT


So what does that mean...to GOM is cut off at this time?
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262. cmackla
7:04 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You have storms like Wilma, Lenny in those time frames.


IC..when was the last time a storm made landfall in LA in October?
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260. Vero1
6:59 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 16N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 46W AND 49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF 13N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ...
13N16W 8N23W 8N40W 10N50W TO TRINIDAD. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE APALACHEE BAY OF
FLORIDA TO A 26N86W NOT-WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CENTER TO A 21N91W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST
OF 94W. A COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SAME
FRONT THAT ABSORBED THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IKE IN
THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WEST OF
30N93W 26N97W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING
PRECIPITATION IN COASTAL MEXICO FROM 19N TO 25N AND INLAND
TO 99W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM NICARAGUA/HONDURAS NORTHWARD BEYOND
CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 78W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO WESTERN JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
67W/68W FROM WESTERN PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND
72W INCLUDING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N26W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 23N47W TO 13N55W TO 7N58W IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH
OF GUYANA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ANOTHER
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH 32N58W TO
24N58W TO 21N58W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH
32N55W TO 27N61W TO 25N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 57W.
A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N29W.

$$
MT
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259. StormJunkie
7:02 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Gale, some of that is true, and some likely not.

I have also heard that there is a air traffic restriction for Galveston Island and more specifically the Bolivar Pen.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 18190
258. NinetyWt
6:59 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting presslord:
additional BTW....Pat gets 100% of the credit for this...I'm just an extrememly unattractive cheerleader.....
Acutally your big ol' heart makes you quite attractive. ;-) Patrap too.
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257. Orcasystems
7:01 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
BRB in about 2 hours, off to the Farmers Market at the fair.
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256. CybrTeddy
7:02 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting cmackla:


Someone explain the spike close to Oct 20th and close to Nov 10th? Local met sd the Oct 20th was for the Caribbean.


You have storms like Wilma, Lenny in those time frames.
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255. cmackla
7:01 PM GMT on September 14, 2008


Someone explain the spike close to Oct 20th and close to Nov 10th? Local met sd the Oct 20th was for the Caribbean.
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254. GaleWeathers
2:50 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Has there been any reporting or word out of Galveston Island? I'm seeing strange comments on the net. Some saying that the air space over the island has been restricted. No reporters have been allowed in. No reports on the 1000 prisoners. No reports about the University of Texas Medical Branch. Etc.

Someone also mentioned that they saw a news report on KHOU that FEMA was taking over the cell phone lines in that area. People who were previously able to contact their family and loved ones in this area via cell phone are no longer able to reach them.

Not trying to sound wacky, just curious if any of this is true. Most of the comments were directed about the west end of the island.
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253. StormJunkie
7:01 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Now there's an idea press!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 18190
252. surfmom
1:58 PM EST on September 14, 2008
Quoting JetManDo:


.I'm just an extrememly unattractive cheerleader.....!--
Did you not think to change into your little white shorts and skimpy top? It could have helped!

Frankly I prefer a Pirate look
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251. presslord
2:59 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
although JetMan and SJ....we might get a ton of dough just to get me to remove that picture....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10618
250. IMA
1:55 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Oh, one other (unsolicited) suggestion for the relief truck -- when I worked with the "K" evacuees we could not get enough adult diapers and feminine products;) Those, baby bottles, pacifiers, diapers, & the diaper rash cream, all of which I think someone mentioned earlier, were what we volunteers were bringing in with us every shift. Trust me, you don't want some already miserable women to be without any of the above! LOL
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248. Orcasystems
6:58 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting surfmom:
Hey orca - just looked at Tampaspin's Blog - it shows Ike tracking all the way up to your your 'hood --- what a stinker


ROFLMAO, right country.. wrong coast :)
I am on the ummm western seaboard of North Dakota.
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247. StormJunkie
6:57 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Please no Jetman, bad idea...I know press, and trust me that is a scary thought!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 18190
246. kdav
6:40 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
louisville kentuck reported a wind gist of 75 mph.
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245. Orcasystems
6:57 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


A storm could form there (like Cristobal), although the last time models forecast something there it ended up as extratropical. It also appear to be moving northeast and out to sea so it probably wouldn't be a big threat if it developed.


Thanks for looking.. it looks like it is the only thing predicted on any of the models I could find.
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244. surfmom
1:57 PM EST on September 14, 2008
Hey orca - just looked at Tampaspin's Blog - it shows Ike tracking all the way up to your your 'hood --- what a stinker
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241. JetManDo
2:55 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting presslord:
additional BTW....Pat gets 100% of the credit for this...I'm just an extrememly unattractive cheerleader.....


.I'm just an extrememly unattractive cheerleader.....Did you not think to change into your little white shorts and skimpy top? It could have helped!
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240. IMA
1:50 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
IMA, did not hear him talk to her before hand, but did hear him praise her at the beginning of the press conference...
There was no sound, but her back she had her back to the wall (just literally, don't know if she was really in trouble but I loved the visual) and his hands were a wavin'! lol
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239. boyzNme
6:47 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks, doc.

From the Beaumont Enterprise:
"Kroger gas station on Dowlen is not open. The store is open and they are letting people in one at a time."

Man, that is one bad typo. Is it open or not? Guess so, but...

I would guess that they are on generator. What would be useful would be a power report along with an open report.



My mom used to work at that Kroger. It is a "super" one and has a separate gas station in the parking lot. I am surprised they are letting the people in at such small numbers. But from experience after Wilma, our Publix opened on generator the next day - hardly no lights, it kind of smelled and the people were just going nuts - food in the floor in the aisles and everything. I left as I was just going for a want, not a need, before we got on the road and evac'd due to the power outage. Please remember, Wilma was only supposed to be a tropical storm for us on the east coast of S FL because it came across the state from the west. It was definitely my first - and a very good - education on how a storm will not necessarily loose its whop when over land!! I will not take a west approaching storm for granted again!
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238. Orcasystems
6:52 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting presslord:
orca reporting live from Canada, North Dakota.....

Hey, don't go picking on our downtown division.. or we will give it back.

BTW, blog updated with the CMC plot
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236. weatherbro
6:43 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting atmoaggie:


Actually, we got at least 2 fronts already (in August) in SELA, which is highly unusual. One did bring us a couple of cooler nights and both brought dry air.
October is usually when they actually make it down to us, just not this year. Seems like the jet stream has been dipping a little further south, at time, than is climatologically normal.


Yep, It appears a late September dip in the Jet Stream for the east will push the Bermuda High and give even Florida some relief recurving storms and ending the rainy season! Oh boy, Autumn here we come!
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235. presslord
2:51 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
orca reporting live from Canada, North Dakota.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10618
233. surfmom
1:44 PM EST on September 14, 2008
EmmyRose - a very special person!!!!

Greetings Ike - spent 4days (+) riding your namesake - 6hours yesterday -- but he was nasty- brought tons of Stinging Jellies & sea nettles -- he's twisted -- no pleasure w/out pain,

candle lit, prayers in mind for all who have to deal with IKE

Thanks to Patrap, PressLord & EmmyRose - actions speak louder then words! a fonte puro pura defluit aqua
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232. LLHi
1:43 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Liann, save your typing . The people you're addressing don't have electricity and so aren't able to read your puffed-up post, but hey, pat yourself on the back for me, for being so clever.


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231. CybrTeddy
6:49 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Yea, SST's have cooled along the Equator in the Pacific. Looks like ENSO's going to La Nina.
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230. eyetoothtom
6:40 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting WetBankGuy:


When I was loading trucks in Fargo, ND after Katrina there was a lot of donated, used clothing. While people meant well, it was not what was needed most urgently.,



I guess if I saw a parking lot full of boxes of clothes...not being taken...one would think the effort wasn't appreciated. No you're right, there were other pressing needs. Many did later get clothes and appreciated them and many will need such in TX down the line. But for us, my 90 yr. old mom and I, it was when we go out 4 days later with our clothes on our backs, that a church in Milton, Fl go mom the clothes she needed.
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229. extreme236
6:49 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting Vortex95:
nvm I thought one could form but there is too much dry air it wouldn't get it will likely die out in the middle of the gulf unless the dry air just vanishes.


its not the dry air that would kill it, it would be that shear in the NW Gulf.
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228. Orcasystems
6:49 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
And the Carols is soooo much better...lol

Good to see ya Orca


ROFLMAO, someone gave me his permission to call them that :)
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227. extreme236
6:49 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This area has cut off from the trof, we could be dealing with the First stage of what could be Cyclone Genesis. Has a nice rotation.


But there is really nothing there. That trough has a bunch of weak sfc lows but nothing promising yet.
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225. presslord
2:47 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
additional BTW....Pat gets 100% of the credit for this...I'm just an extrememly unattractive cheerleader.....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10618
224. extreme236
6:45 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Don't count on it:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

(negative PDO favors La Ninas, even though SSTs have been neutral for a few months now, most indicators still say strong La Nina, and indeed, subsurface waters are cooling again, almost as cold as last year at this time)


SOI numbers are really far into the positive range.
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223. StormJunkie
6:48 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
And the Carols is soooo much better...lol

Good to see ya Orca
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 18190
221. Orcasystems
6:46 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Derecho is often overused; you can read about what a derecho is here (the SPC also usually issues a moderate or high risk for them).


Michael, what do you make of the CMC run near the end.. shows something starting off the Carols? (I would say Carolina's, but people take offence to calling it that)
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220. CybrTeddy
6:46 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
This area has cut off from the trof, we could be dealing with the First stage of what could be Cyclone Genesis. Has a nice rotation.
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217. JetManDo
2:45 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting eyetoothtom:
Yeah JetManDo, I agree. I don't mean do not contribute to the effort these two are doing.

eyetoothtom WU Mail
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216. CybrTeddy
6:43 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Don't count on it:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

(negative PDO favors La Ninas, even though SSTs have been neutral for a few months now, most indicators still say strong La Nina, and indeed, subsurface waters are cooling again, almost as cold as last year at this time)


Could be talking about the exact opposite that what happened with El Nino between 1991-93, talking about La Nina between 2007-09
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Huron
Fall Color in Pictured Rocks
Pictured Rocks Beach Day
Pictured Rocks dunes and clouds