Ike finally dies

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:34 PM GMT on September 14, 2008

The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Tropical Depression Ike, which is now accelerating northeastward through Illinois. Ike is causing only modest trouble, dumping 2-5 inches of rain along its path and triggering scattered severe thunderstorms. Ike has generated just five tornadoes so far. Two small tornadoes affected Arkansas yesterday, and three were reported in Louisiana on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio at slight risk today of receiving tornadoes as Ike speeds by.

Ike's damage
In it's wake, Ike has left a Texas-sized disaster. AIR Worldwide, Inc, is estimating that total insured damage in Texas and Louisiana will be $10 billion. An additional $3.4 billion in damage was likely done in the Gulf of Mexico, due to wind and wave damage to oil platforms and the indirect loss of revenue attributable to reductions in oil and gas production. Using the usual rule of thumb that total hurricane damages are double the insured damages, the price tag for Ike will be about $27 billion. That would make Ike the third costliest hurricane in history. Only Hurricane Katrina of 2005 and Hurricane Andrew of 1992 did more damage than Ike has. So far, the death toll from Ike has been remarkably low, considering the level of damage this storm inflicted. Let's hope it stays this way.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ike approaching Galveston Island, as seen by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The white dot in the eye is the freighter Antalina, which got caught in the storm when its engines failed. A tugboat towed the Antilina safely to port on Saturday, and all 22 crewmen are well and the ship is undamaged. They'll have quite a story to tell (bet they barfed plenty)! Image Copyright ESA [2008], captured and processed by CSTARS University of Miami under license from Eurimage. CSTARS runs jointly with the Canadian Space Agency and the European Space Agency a Hurricane Watch program where they take routine SAR images of tropical storms during hurricane season.

The tropics are quiet
On Monday, for the first time since August 15, we will not have a named storm in the Atlantic. The area of disturbed weather (91L) near the Bahamas that we were watching has been done in by dry air and wind shear. There is another area of disturbed weather (92L) midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands we are watching. This disturbance is under about 25 knots of wind shear, and is suffering from dry air to its west. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. Wind shear is now expected to remain high, above 20 knots, for the next five days, and I don't see much chance of this system developing.

None of the computer models are forecasting development of any tropical storms in the coming week. We have hit a much-appreciated lull in this season's activity, but we're probably not all done yet. I'll discuss the long-term outlook for the coming two weeks in a blog entry on Tuesday.

My next post will be Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Intracostal City Flooded (jlp09550)
This is a helicopter shot from above Maxie's Grocery Store in Intracoastal City. (Vermilion Parish, Louisiana)
Intracostal City Flooded
Expressway Flood (edison)
Slow going prior to complete shut down.Ike gets Indiana too.
Expressway Flood

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316. IKE
3:00 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Patrap wouldn't pocket anybodies money. No way....
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315. surfmom
2:54 PM EST on September 14, 2008
292 - HUGE SIGH! I hear what you are saying KRL, and that story saddens me greatly because it does cast a shadow on people doing good work with honesty and intregrity. Sometimes, I just got to follow my gut and heart.

But, my son and I have an "underground" prject where we take care of immigrant farm workers. We quietly collect clothes, and all of the surplus eggs from his chickens go to supplement these poor people's diets. We are DIRECT, and we make a difference -
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314. LAnovice
2:56 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Unfortunately - NOLA has been there and that is why PATRAP is organizing this effort I think..- KRL - though I'm sure your experience is accurate - you are penalizing the efforts of good people with very good intentions and experience with relief efforts.

Quoting CosmicEvents:
Unbelievable
.
There's a congressman on channel 11 right now fuming because the first responders don't have food, water, or port-a-potty's. At the main staging center, covering all of SE Texas, there's 500 first responders who don't have water. And Fema or Homeland Security isn't of any help. The congressman is asking the local populace to drop off food and water. Unbelievable!
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313. BRMoon
7:57 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
From first had experience, Fema help is delayed until the governor makes a formal request and it goes thru the beaurocracy and it is done. It is several days before Fema responds. Before that we had local people step up and volunteer with the Red Cross and Salvation army. The churches here organize to feed the first responders. They cook and deliver the meals to them and to the shelters.
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312. Stormchaser2007
3:54 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting BKeen12:
does anyone know what happened to tropicalamanda, i know she lived in the area where Ike hit


She was a Guy and a complete fake...A troll who pretended to be a girl.
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311. IMA
2:58 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Well, I'm one of those people who is almost irritatingly positive. On the other hand, I'm a cynic. Yes, that's possible. But, that said, I completely trust Pat and wouldn't hesitate to send him $ myself. Are there others here I wouldn't trust? Hell, yes! But out of all those here, and I've lurked here quietly (yes, believe it or not, I can be quiet) for countless hours every week of the season for years, Pat is one of only 3, maybe 4, that I would trust. You don't have to give, but don't discourage other from doing so.
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310. indianrivguy
3:58 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting IMA:
286. HurricanePartyWhere'd you find "current" street view pics for Crystal Beach on Google Maps? So far, I'm only seeing old ones. I'd not looked there, assumed there'd be no new shots.


Here are some afters I matched with befores. I'm not familiar with the territory so this is all I could match for the time being.

before

after

before

after

before

after

a before with beach missing marked
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309. kdav
7:54 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
pretty much teh bolivar peninsula is what waveland or biloxi or gulfport looked like. really hope tehre was no one left there.
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308. BRMoon
7:55 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting FMTXWMAN:
You'd think they would have better things to do in Port Arthur Tx..

On September 13, 2008 at 9:10 AM, Mayor Prince ordered that during the State of Emergency, all alcohol sales in the City of Port Arthur are herein prohibited. This order is necessary as to protect the health and safety of the citizens of Port Arthur and is further necessary as to protect the safe transportation of persons.


While I agree this is probably a good idea. With all the other stuff needing to be done it surprises me that this was even thought of.


the reason for this ban is because the police are overtaxed and overworked during this time and have no time to be arresting drunks and respond to domestic violence.
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307. StormJunkie
7:55 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
aqua, I feel bad for those that did not see that one coming...Someone said it well "trapicalamanda"
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306. CosmicEvents
3:50 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Unbelievable
.
There's a congressman on channel 11 right now fuming because the first responders don't have food, water, or port-a-potty's. At the main staging center, covering all of SE Texas, there's 500 first responders who don't have water. And Fema or Homeland Security isn't of any help. The congressman is asking the local populace to drop off food and water. Unbelievable!
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305. StormJunkie
7:45 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
KRL, while I admit there are dangers in the smaller private sector relief let me point out a couple of things.

1. No way patrap pockets the money. Just not in his nature.

2. Patrap lived through Kat, so he "understands" the needs.

3. Press lived through Hugo, so again understands the needs.

4. As great as the organizations you listed are, they are not the best at immediate response. As you stated, lots of red tape.

5. Many areas lag behind in getting relief because they do not get the press coverage that areas like Galveston Island and Houston get. Even the Bolivar Pen area somewhat falls in to this category, but especially the areas just N and W of Bolivar. I know this from experience, after Hugo Charleston got lots of relief. Awendall was basically forgotten about for the first week to week and a half. This was the major surge area with Hugo.

All in all, in the right hands, the private sector is so much more capable then FEMA, and some of the larger relief agencies.

I'd bet my life on your money being in good hands with Patrap and presslord. Just my two cents.
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304. lakeEFX
7:26 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting alandee:
I find it very interesting, that a computer model shows Ike regaining tropical storm status over Lakes Erie & Ontario and further up the St. Lawrence seaway then out to sea. Is there really enough warm water in these lakes to do that?


i just got home from work and was catching up on today's blog when I came across this question. I've lived on the southern shore of Lake Erie all of my life, and I've never seen this happen. We often get the remnants of landfalling hurricanes, many of which bring gale force winds and plenty of rain. Of all of the Great Lakes, Erie is the smallest and shallowest which allows it to be warmer in the summer than the others. However, it only warms to an average of 72-75 degrees at the most. I know that's not warm enough to intensify a tropical system. Marine forecast for today, when the remains of Ike meets up with a cold front is that winds will be below gale force (40 mph). It should last 6-10 hours. (nothing to us up here who are used to 40+ sustained winds in a blizzard.)

Also, I saw that some people were doubting the integrity of Patrap and Presslord's heroic act to bring supplies to the people who were at the mercy of Ike's destruction, and even though these guys don't know me, I've been reading this blog for years, and these guys are some of the best people I've ever "met." (Not to mention the best sense of humor.) They are some of God's angels.
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303. FMTXWMAN
7:47 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
You'd think they would have better things to do in Port Arthur Tx..

On September 13, 2008 at 9:10 AM, Mayor Prince ordered that during the State of Emergency, all alcohol sales in the City of Port Arthur are herein prohibited. This order is necessary as to protect the health and safety of the citizens of Port Arthur and is further necessary as to protect the safe transportation of persons.


While I agree this is probably a good idea. With all the other stuff needing to be done it surprises me that this was even thought of.
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302. kdav
7:53 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
80 billion?1 what i higly doub that. maybe a 30 billion one though.
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301. surfmom
2:50 PM EST on September 14, 2008
Quoting IMA:
288. surfmom Oh, well, see - ya should've been more specific! Someone said cheerleader and short skirt, so I thought female and then you said pirate but I still thought female! ~evil grin~


Hell no- I've got the legs - I want a pirate w/a sword ROTFL - That'll get my pen writing a check
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300. aquak9
3:53 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Bkeen12-

tropicalamanda was a self-admitted fake and a waste of blog space...

how odd of you to ask about "her"
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299. HurricaneParty
2:49 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting IMA:
286. HurricanePartyWhere'd you find "current" street view pics for Crystal Beach on Google Maps? So far, I'm only seeing old ones. I'd not looked there, assumed there'd be no new shots.


No, of course there aren't any current shots. Just look at one of the overhead pictures (like this one) and correlate to the streets in this picture. Then use street view to see what the area looked like before... no need to show what it looks like now, it's just sand and debris.

I just found it to be much more profound looking at the before pics in Streetview, rather than an overhead picture of a entire neighborhood.
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298. BRMoon
7:47 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
About the comments about cell phone availability after a storm, having lived through Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike--thankfully only on the edges of them--communication of any kind afterwards is difficult and sometimes impossible. The calls inquiring about the well-being of family, friends and property must be overridden by those still trying to rescue the trapped and surveying the damage and deciding the best way to repair the infrastructure. I can tell you from personal experience, that it is a very, very stressful time for all.
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297. BKeen12
7:48 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
does anyone know what happened to tropicalamanda, i know she lived in the area where Ike hit
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296. IMA
2:42 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
286. HurricanePartyWhere'd you find "current" street view pics for Crystal Beach on Google Maps? So far, I'm only seeing old ones. I'd not looked there, assumed there'd be no new shots.
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295. EarthwalkUSA
7:46 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
They are now estimating, after finally seeing some water recede and scoping the damage, that this will be an 80 billion dollar storm or higher.
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294. HurricaneGeek
3:46 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
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292. KRL
7:19 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
I'm not a big fan of people starting their own relief efforts especially on blogs LOL. That's what the Red Cross, Salvation Army and other long established organizations with the infrastructure, equipment, supplies, people, communications already in place are for.

Nothing against the guys here. I consider them both "good" people based on my observations too.

However, after Katrina on another blog I'm a member of, we had one of the regular bloggers start an effort to raise money to do a direct relief effort in hopes of bypassing all the red tape to get supplies in fast to the folks suffering in New Orleans.

He was a private pilot with military background, awards, decorations, etc. and told us all he was raising money to fly supplies in instantly. Many people on the board had met him in person also. So everything sounded perfectly kosher. So everyone started to send him a ton of money. I think he raised something like $40k or more in a couple days time.

I'm always leery of stuff like this and I started to question some of the statements he was making about how he planned the flight mission because some of it didn't sound right in terms of his getting flight clearance into NoLo.

He started saying he had high level government connects direct to the highest levels of govt and went into this stuff about being Special Ops, and crazy sounding things and frankly the whole story got really sounding like a bunch of BS.

I got verbally attacked much like Mordie did here for challenging the guy and asking questions.

This guy was good, real good, he even started posting on the board saying he was now blogging from the plane and circling overhead New Orleans and would need more money for jet fuel to make more trips.

He went on with stories on the ground of helping kids he saw stranded and had many people in tears reading his live from the scene blog updates.

To make a long story short, it was all a con, and he never had actually made the first flight nor any of the others, never bought jet fuel, never chartered the plane, never bought supplies. When someone called his cellphone to verify he was really flying he had used a tape of airplane engines playing in the background for special effects. LOL. He had basically pocketed all the money raised and the entire story was a bunch of bull. And this guy was a long time board member very well respected and for whatever reason figured he could get away with it and no one would ever find out that nothing he said he'd done had really been done.

Next thing you know the FBI was contacting the owner of the forum and a big investigation started, because a press release had gone out about his heroic efforts and people outside the board were sending in money to him too.

The FBI ended up arresting him and he was charged federally for fraud, theft etc., was prosecuted, found guilty and got sent to prison.

Moral of the story, it's great to help others in need, but in my opinion, the best way is to support established organizations already on scene. But again, nothing against the guys here, and if you like supporting direct efforts it sounds like they've got a good plan in mind.


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291. NinetyWt
7:40 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
KHOU just showed a couple of more stills from Crystal Beach...Pretty much all you could see was stilts.
According to what was learned from Katrina, typical for areas where the storm surge exceeded the lowest floor level and waves were present. Where storm surge and waves were below first floors, pile foundations performed well. Another testatment to the height of the water on Bolivar Peninsula.
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290. Celia1970
7:40 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quotes from Another AP Article:

"Overnight, a team of paramedics, rescue dogs and structural engineers fanned out under a nearly full moon on a finger of land in Galveston Bay. To the northeast, Coast Guard crews also worked into early Sunday morning, pulling a half-dozen people out of Bridge City before rescue missions were suspended for the night."

"On one side of the Galveston peninsula, two barges had broken loose and smashed into homes. Everything from red vinyl barstools to clay roof tiles littered the landscape.

The second floor of some homes sat where the first had been before Ike's surge washed it out, and only framed remained below the roofs of others, opening a clear view from front yard to back."

"Texas Gov. Rick Perry's office said 940 people had been saved by nightfall Saturday, but that thousands had made distress calls the night before. Another 600 were rescued from flooding in Louisiana.

In Orange, Texas, Mayor Brown Claybar estimated about a third of the city of 19,000 people was flooded, from 6 inches of water to 6 feet. He said about 375 people who stayed behind during the storm had begun to emerge, some needing food, water and medical care."

Article Citation:

Some Ike evacuees turned away on return home
By CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
September 14, 2008 1:08 PM EDT

Link
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289. IMA
2:39 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
288. surfmom Oh, well, see - ya should've been more specific! Someone said cheerleader and short skirt, so I thought female and then you said pirate but I still thought female! ~evil grin~
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288. surfmom
2:31 PM EST on September 14, 2008
LOL IMA --- but I was thinking more along the lines of Captain Jack Sparrow -
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287. StormJunkie
7:34 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
KHOU just stated they may be able to do some flying over W Galveston Island and Bolivar Pen later today.
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286. HurricaneParty
2:28 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
OK, they told us not to do it -- but I have to admit -- I've been on the roads in Galveston.

I've been "driving" around Crystal Beach on Google Street View.

It's horribly sad. Looking at the recent overhead shots of the area, and then looking at each house individually... not there any more. So many of them.

Some of you may want to take this tour before writing that relief check to Patrap. It's opened my heart & wallet a little more, even though I just sustained about $40k in losses in Hurricane Gustav (lost business, hopefully most will be eventually recovered by insurance).
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285. IMA
2:31 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
273. StormW lalala I'm not listening lalala - no more storms!

279. EarthwalkUSA It makes me so mad to see those people clogging I-45 like that!
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284. LAnovice
2:33 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
I heard the same thing - cell phone issue on KHOU was discussed - communication is a major issue..
Quoting GaleWeathers:
Has there been any reporting or word out of Galveston Island? I'm seeing strange comments on the net. Some saying that the air space over the island has been restricted. No reporters have been allowed in. No reports on the 1000 prisoners. No reports about the University of Texas Medical Branch. Etc.

Someone also mentioned that they saw a news report on KHOU that FEMA was taking over the cell phone lines in that area. People who were previously able to contact their family and loved ones in this area via cell phone are no longer able to reach them.

Not trying to sound wacky, just curious if any of this is true. Most of the comments were directed about the west end of the island.
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283. zoomiami
7:31 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Reports from Galveston include the fact that they brought buses in to evacuate those from Ball High School, and more than a thousand other people have showed up to try to get off the island. All word of mouth - no official announcement was made.

One reporter fro WHOU that has been broadcasting all day - has really done a great job. The cameraman with him has a house on the end of the island, it survived.
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282. tropics21
7:33 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting StormW:
256. CybrTeddy 7:02 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting cmackla:


Someone explain the spike close to Oct 20th and close to Nov 10th? Local met sd the Oct 20th was for the Caribbean.


You have storms like Wilma, Lenny in those time frames.
From what I remember about Oct., a monsoon trof from over Mexico sometimes slides far enough east to set off some stuff.
hi storm hope you are taking a lon needed rest
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281. StormJunkie
7:30 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
KHOU just showed a couple of more stills from Crystal Beach...Pretty much all you could see was stilts.
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280. IMA
2:31 PM CDT on September 14, 2008


Just for surfmom ;) I'll make Press' face even "purtier" (a purely Texas word) and print it poster-size for the right donation to Pat's fund ;)
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279. EarthwalkUSA
7:22 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Recent photos and videos from West Galveston Island and Bolivar peninsula are very gruesome. The ferry building is visible but mostly under water. City manager said he visibly saw thirty houses or more swept out to sea. In most other areas you only see sticks- sticks that once held houses.

Remember that the Houston/Galveston area is a high security area for FEMA. So, true to government, they'll take longer to do what they should have done already. They are keeping te air space and island closed for two more days to do house-to-house or slab-to-slab search and rescue. Communications are limited so first responders and FEMA take over the cell lines. That's reasonable as there were communication problems in every disaster and comm areas are limited.
The night the eyewall hit, there was also a tornado on that end of the island. The new numbers say as many as 7000 may be somewhere on the island, so a lot of work to figure out who is there and who may not be ever again, along with who left. No power there for 4-6 weeks, so trucks to the island would be imperative; however, I45 is still blocked and I10 is under water and impassable at more than 4 interchanges. Airports have damage on approach decks and other places. More than 130 rescues from rising water today after rising water. I45 is jammed. NO ONE can get through, including trucks filled with supplies.

Sigh-
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275. indianrivguy
3:22 PM EDT on September 14, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
Ima, I don't think there is a conspiracy either, but that said from what I was hearing yesterday rescue units have a ceiling they operate under and they usually let news crews operate well above that ceiling (2000'). I do tend to think they want to keep the images down coming out of Bolivar Pen and the W end of Galveston Island for now. Some of this could be due to the next of kin issues, etc. Not so much trying to cover up the damage. Images of those areas will come out in the coming days.


that makes sense. Yesterday the khou chopper was way high, and at one point followed a Dauphin CG chopper with the camera.. it was WAY lower.
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274. eyetoothtom
7:17 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Early today, this morning, a blogger mention how nice to have this site quite. Hadn't thought about it but what happened to Harvard MBA, now that he could tell how to pay for clean-up and rebuilding
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272. StormJunkie
7:19 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Ima, I don't think there is a conspiracy either, but that said from what I was hearing yesterday rescue units have a ceiling they operate under and they usually let news crews operate well above that ceiling (2000'). I do tend to think they want to keep the images down coming out of Bolivar Pen and the W end of Galveston Island for now. Some of this could be due to the next of kin issues, etc. Not so much trying to cover up the damage. Images of those areas will come out in the coming days.
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271. KRL
7:12 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting GaleWeathers:
Has there been any reporting or word out of Galveston Island? I'm seeing strange comments on the net. Some saying that the air space over the island has been restricted. No reporters have been allowed in. No reports on the 1000 prisoners. No reports about the University of Texas Medical Branch. Etc.

Someone also mentioned that they saw a news report on KHOU that FEMA was taking over the cell phone lines in that area. People who were previously able to contact their family and loved ones in this area via cell phone are no longer able to reach them.

Not trying to sound wacky, just curious if any of this is true. Most of the comments were directed about the west end of the island.


Not whacky at all and probably accurate info. Whenever there is a major catastrophe the first thing the government has to do is take command of and completely secure the areas impacted. They might not declare it as "martial law" but for all intents and purposes it is and they call the shots.

Also, I'm sure with the elections right around the corner the last thing the administration wants is to see another Katrina bungling on all the news media. So the best way to insure that is to keep the media from recording or seeing what's going on, so if blunders are made, no one will know about them.

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270. NinetyWt
7:13 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Quoting surfmom:


Yup -- got me hooked faster then an instant message LOL
LOL
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269. tea3781
7:12 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
Looks like persistant thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean. Any thoughts on this?
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268. NinetyWt
7:10 PM GMT on September 14, 2008
For those in the path of Ike's rains ~

Here's a page with tips on what to do before, during, and after a flood.

Flood facts.

Cook County has new flood maps out; dated 8/19/2008. These can be looked up and viewed here, as can all NFIP flood maps for the U.S.

Flooding conditions by stream gauge can be tracked here.

NOAA has a forecast page for stream levels here. You can check to see if a stream is forecast to have no flooding, minor flooding, moderate flooding, or major flooding. I've got that pointed to Illinois, but you can look up many others.

Stay safe and dry!

Cross-posted on my blog.
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267. surfmom
2:07 PM EST on September 14, 2008
Quoting NinetyWt:
Acutally your big ol' heart makes you quite attractive. ;-) Patrap too.


Yup -- got me hooked faster then an instant message LOL
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266. IMA
2:05 PM CDT on September 14, 2008
254. GaleWeathers I don't think there is any conspiracy involved. They need to free-up the limited cell capacities for important communications; they need the airspace to be as uncluttered (not sure that'd be a good term for it but you get the idea) for rescue efforts; they are taking looters to the jail and mentioned that it's w/out a/c but it sounds like it's "sound" so I am doubt they would be taking them there if it wasn't o.k.

Also, in regards to the post about this possibly being another FEMA screw-up -- it's a little early to be saying that, as was stated in an earlier press conference. Did you see the truck driver that called in? They are having hell getting through. The people that are getting on the roads that don't need to be on the roads (my otherwise intelligent brother was one of them), the people out just "touring" getting in their way, the trees covering the roads, the water covering the roads, etc. are not helping them any
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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