Ike's storm surge an extreme danger to Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike remains a huge a dangerous Category 2 hurricane, and has changed little since this morning. Ike's central pressure continues to hold steady at 950 mb, as measured by the Hurricane Hunters at 3:14 pm EDT. Ike's tiny 9-mile wide eye appears to be collapsing, which will allow a new eyewall of much larger-diameter to form. This event should allow Ike to start intensifying tonight. The latest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential image shows that the center of Ike has just finished crossing a cold eddy in the Gulf of Mexico waters, and is now beginning to pass along the north side of a warm eddy. This change in oceanic heat should also help allow Ike to intensify tonight. The eddy is not ideally positioned, though, for rapid intensification to occur. The eddy is on the left (weak) side of the hurricane, where wind speeds are slower since the forward motion of the storm subtracts from the wind speed of the circulation. These lower-speed winds will be able to evaporate less moisture from the warm ocean than if the eddy were positioned on Ike's right side. Oceanic heat content remains moderately high after Ike crosses the eddy, which should allow some modest strengthening to continue. Wind shear of 10-15 knots and dry air on Ike's west side is hampering Ike slightly, as evidenced by the lack of upper-level outflow on the storm's west side and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity. Shear is expected to decrease to 5 knots by the time of landfall Saturday morning, and I expect Ike will be maintaining its strength or slowly intensifying right up until landfall. Ike will probably be at the top end of Category 2 strength at landfall, with 110 mph winds.

Comparisons to Carla and Katrina
Ike is larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's surge will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. Ike's maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla, though.


Figure 1. Experimental storm surge heights for Ike. There is a 10% chance the storm surge from Ike will exceed these values. Data courtesy of NOAA.

The total energy of Ike
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest. Note that the figures I quoted in this morning's blog saying Ike had an IKE of 180, 50% higher than Katrina's, were found to be in error due to some bad data from one of the Hurricane Hunter observations (the IKE is an experimental product, after all). Thus, this morning's IKE was actually a little lower than Katrina's.


Figure 2. Comparison of the potential damage from storm surge and waves on a scale of 1 to 6 (left scale, and corresponding to little "x" marks on the plot), as a function of total Integrated Kinetic Energy in Tera-joules (IKE, on the right scale, corresponding to the little squares on the plot). Hurricane Ike at 12:30pm EDT had an IKE of 134, 10% higher than the value of 122 Katrina had at landfall in Mississippi. Ike's amount of wind energy can generate storm surge and wave damage rated at 5.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, worse than Katrina's 5.1 at landfall. Image credit:"Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy" by Mark Powell and Timothy Reinhold.

Ike's waves
All this energy is also going into the waves in the Gulf of Mexico, and the offshore oil rigs can expect to receive a terrific battering. At 1:50pm CDT, waves at the buoy 42001 180nm south of Louisiana peaked at 30 feet. NHC is predicting Ike's waves will peak at 50 feet (15 meters) in the northern Gulf on Friday. For comparison, Hurricane Ivan of 2004 generated 27 meter (89 foot) high waves in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil companies spent hundreds of millions of dollars upgrading their oil rigs in the Gulf in the wake of the destruction wrought by Ivan and Katrina and Rita, and I'm not anticipating severe damage to the rigs from Ike's 50-foot waves.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, the storm tides along the Mississippi coast have peaked at 4 feet above normal, and are currently running 5 feet above normal on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. A storm surge of 5.9 feet was observed in New Orleans' Industrial Canal at 10:45 am CDT, and 5.75 feet in Waveland, Mississippi. Coastal Alabama is reporting a 4-6 foot storm surge, with 10-15 foot waves. Considering the center of Ike is over 250 miles south of these locations, it is not hard to imagine that Texas will get a 15-20 foot storm surge, even if Ike does not strengthen.

Ike will probably inundate a 250-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to the Louisiana border with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. If Ike is a Category 3+ hurricane at landfall, surges of 20+ feet are possible. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 18-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped. At noon today, a mandatory evacuation of the entire island was ordered in case this worst-case scenario is realized. The official NHC forecast is calling for maximum storm surge heights of 20 feet.

What should Texas residents do?
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive. The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office puts things in pretty stark perspective:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather

Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast

Mid Gulf Buoy 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA (42001)

Tropical disturbance 91L north of Puerto Rico
An area of disturbed weather (91L) has developed a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite loops show that 91L has a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but does have a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. A surface circulation is not apparent, but the mid-level spin could work its way down to the surface over the next day or two. The disturbance in under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Saturday, then increase to 25 knots. We may expect some slow development until Saturday, when wind shear should be too high to allow further development. None of the models are developing 91L. By Tuesday, as 91L will be approaching the east coast of Florida, shear is expected to decline to 15 knots, and some additional development may be possible, if the disturbance holds together that long.

I'll have an update tonight if there's a significant change in Ike.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1296 - 1246

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

1296. jb2five
3:32 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting AndyN:


OK....Exclamation Point
yo andy n, that sh*t was funny! where are you...question mark :oP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1295. bappit
3:32 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
1278, not a responsible thing to say, sorry. The forecast track shifted slightly west this last go round in fact. Could go east or west of forecast track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1294. NoMeteorsInOlogy
3:24 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Watchingthegulf and raindance:

Flooding destroys more property and takes moire lives than hurricane winds. Most people are not aware that a hip=-ddep flood tide moving at ten miles and hour will kill you dead as a good idea in Congress.

The flooding is going to be catastrophic--all that water was set in motion when Ike came in and is not going to subside.

The devil with the intensity forecast--the storm surge is not going to be a cakewalk. I see your criticism of the intenisty forecast--and it may have been to make sure people know the old addage

"Hide from wind, and run from water."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1293. jdjnola
3:32 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting TcuFrogs:
Just got back in and saw that projected as a Cat 2 now at landfall. What are the chances of increasing to Cat 3. Isn't it going to cross over a warm eddy in the Gulf.


It's currently north of a warm eddy in the Gulf (see Dr. M's link above at the start of his blog entry).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1292. WhereIsTheStorm
3:31 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Any advice for a dog who seems to be sensitive to pressure changes. With Kay, Gus and now Ike, our dog barks all night once the storm enters the gulf. She is only 5 months old and that is the only thing we can figure. I have suggested giving her benedryl, but my husband worries. Anyone else have this trouble.


Ask your vet about this. He/she will recommend a prescription for you to fill. Wrap the pill in cheese or lunchmeat and give it him/her. My mothers dog shakes because she's scared during thunderstroms and need to take a pill to calm down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1291. CaptnDan142
3:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Vero1:
THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES
...425 KM.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH

115mile + 115miles =230miles / 12mph = 19 hr of hurricane winds

265 X 2 = 530miles / 12 mph = 44 hrs of tropical storm winds

19 hr + 44 hrs = ONE Long TIME 63 hrs


I think you are referring to being directly in the path?

Anyway, you don't add the two together - it would be 44 hours, the middle 19 of which would be hurricane force.

Still a long time in the wind though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1289. RitaEvac
10:29 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
For this storm, they will not shift back west, its gonna go down the black line or east of it and they shift every friggin 6 hrs. Because they have no clue where its going
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1288. whipster
11:27 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting jtn:
WW Blog is getting worse and worse...takes forever...and stuff missing...this is riduckuluos.


Yeah, the spellchecker broke too!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1286. Vero1
3:26 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Panhandle89:

You didn't factor in that it is going to weaken once it hits land so hurricane force winds will only last about 12 hours inland. Tropical storm force will last a long time though.
True neither did I figure a possible increase in strength or speed change either. Just simple calculation using current numbers. Still in the end its a long time to be hunkered down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1285. BiloxiGirl
3:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I like the idea of giving my husband Benedryl. Might be easier to give him some Gentlemen Jack.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1284. AndyN
3:27 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting jb2five:


you are right about knots versus mph, BUT the HH info says max speeds of 85 MPH...period.


OK....Exclamation Point
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1283. PcolaJess
10:28 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
here is the animation link for the storm surge
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1282. dean2007
3:24 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Wow you guys are funny. He's going to ramp up overnight. So tomorrow we could be looking at an eye. However yes we also could be looking at a simply Ike like right now. However I believe current trends will continue with Ike showing deeper convection over his center and in his outer bands. I will eat some crow tomorrow if indeed he doesn't do this, but evidence suggests this is ready to occur with Ike's tropical storm force winds contracting about ten miles. Good night and I'll talk to you tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1281. jtn
3:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Nutzabout3:


Not according to the NHC --
"IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST."


It is possible....but not as likely as one would have thought....with the pressure now...Ike should be a 3.....just cant seem to get the winds up.....with that said - whether a 3 or not texas is going to have a nightmare on hand with a surge of 20 - 25 feet and huge waves on top.......I would not be anywhere to the right of where Ike goes ashore....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1280. forecastFlyer
10:26 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
lol. I should have been clearer. This is what we did when I was a kid. I don't tape or open windows now. We plywood instead!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1279. MelbourneTom
3:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Good local news coverage: Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1278. RitaEvac
10:27 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
VBgirl thats called hype... and it aint gonna happen to Galveston, track is moving every 6 hrs east and Jefferson county is gonna get that anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1277. newenglandnative
3:27 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting raindancer:
Anything is POSSIBLE... The world may still end before tomorrow night. But Ike is not destined to be a big wind producer. Check the models. Everything is pointing towards a status quo storm - or even weakening.
yeah sure. is a 20 foot storm surge status quo?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1276. FormerFloridian
11:23 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting forecastFlyer:
I was raised to tape the windows and then "crack" (slightly raise them). We didn't tape but we raised the windows for tornado warnings too.


tape is a waste. and you definitely should not crack the windows. it could lead to structure failure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1275. MercForHire
3:05 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting MelbourneTom:


ADMIN: New rule, no blog inputs unless you are a WU member. This would most likely help a lot.


Terrible idea. This site is not just a group of paid members getting together to talk amongst each other...it's to also spread important weather information & help out those that may be affected.

By forcing payment before post privileges, then those who may be looking for an answer to a potentially important, even life-saving answer....would not be able to even ASK that question until they paid.

Do YOU want to possibly contribute to that type of situation?? I don't.

Keeping the blog full of useful information & keeping the trolls OUT can easily be accomplished by introducing a somewhat better system of moderation.

Ideally, many volunteer moderators with post editing/deleting/banning powers should be assigned to help out what seems to be a very small group of actual Admin...as compared to the sheer size of this site.

This system would make it very likely that at least 1, probably 2 or more, mods would be on-line at any one time. I've modded several forums...still do...and admin my own site. This type of system mentioned works like a charm. Rarely a need to "report" anything, since bad posts & bad posters are almost always caught within minutes by someone who has the authority to do something about them.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1274. PcolaJess
10:25 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting ctweathergal:
repost last post got eaten by the hungry bloggy monster---Anybody got a link to either the images where galveston dissapears under surge or to that power point series with same idea. Trying to convince someone that this could happen and why to evac now

here is the link to the animation...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1273. Kjsasey
3:27 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting RAMPAGE127:
music interlude.Link


LMAO PERFECT INTERLUDE!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1272. TBird78
3:24 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I'm in Houston and my dog isn't barking or acting too weird. He is more clingy and whiny tonight but who knows what that's from. I give him children's benadryl for allergies. don't know if it will stop the barking if it's the pressure. It will make him sleep better though...and maybe you too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1271. HiWay
3:21 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Vero1:
THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES
...425 KM.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH

115mile + 115miles =230miles / 12mph = 19 hr of hurricane winds

265 X 2 = 530miles / 12 mph = 44 hrs of tropical storm winds

19 hr + 44 hrs = ONE Long TIME 63 hrs


you mean 19 + 44 still = 44 in this case, tropical storm force includes the hurricane force swath. :)

assuming no forward speed increase.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1270. PcolaDan
10:22 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting PcolaJess:
glad ya liked them SJ! I've never seen the gulf like that before, because usually when it looks like that it is headed here and we are hauling booty!


OH NOOOOO not the pier again!!!!! And your right about only usually seeing that in rear view mirror. Actually I had planned to go out to take pictures too, but all this atmospheric pressure changing playing havoc with sinuses. Baaaad headache, not to mention aches in the old joints.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1269. CozumelCati
10:25 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Nice photos PcolaJess :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1268. MSGULFGAL
3:21 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting NOSinger:
MSGULFGAL...............Conditions here in NOLA are not that bad at present. Winds are really blowing....Tomarrow is a different story, conditions are to get worse. They are calling for a ton of rain with tropical storm force winds...so to answer your question ...i'd pass on the class!!!!


Thanks for the post! Needed to hear that!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1267. Watchingthegulf
3:24 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Rain Dancer -
My comment didn't get posted w/ your quote I copied. Anyway are you saying that the winds aren't even 100 mph? Strange storm to be so big and have low winds-very odd. I think Houston will fair a Cat 2 fine - but if you're right it may only be a Cat 1. Wonder if the surge will be what they are predicting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1266. HiWay
3:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting jb2five:


you are right about knots versus mph, BUT the HH info says max speeds of 85 MPH...period.


wow if thats the case he strengthened pretty good. he was at about 65mph surface level earlier today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1265. Camellia1356
10:22 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting RitaEvac:
Galveston has dodged a bullet, track is over the east end and NHC as usual continues to shift east every 6 hrs, Galveston will be on the clean side at this rate. Galveston should not get the massive surge now. Looks like another walk in the park and the bubble continues for the Galveston/Houston area.


Isn't this an example of focusing on the black line? A big no-no I've learned from this blog...

I'm not in Galveston but if I was, is it safe to camp on the beaches there tomorrow night? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1264. TcuFrogs
3:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Just got back in and saw that projected as a Cat 2 now at landfall. What are the chances of increasing to Cat 3. Isn't it going to cross over a warm eddy in the Gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1263. jdjnola
3:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting MelbourneTom:
Looks like regulars are gone and now very little usefull information. To me it looks like the storm is weakining a very little bit. Also appears to be a little S of projection. However pull up the Gulf loop, turn on MSLP. To me looks like it could soon take a jog to the N. I had hoped to get an opinion from the regular posters.


Ike is not weakening. He has all but eliminated dry air in his periphery (link). The NHC has stated that his wind field has increased again and he may even strengthen to major status prior to landfall, which IMO is reasonable. Ike has for the most part isolated himself from dry air and shear and is moving over warm shallow waters from here on out to the coast of Texas. The only thing stopping him from strengthening is his massive size, which either works for him or against him, but I think it's in God's hands at this point...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1262. RitaEvac
10:25 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Sabine Pass gonna take the brunt of the surge
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1261. iluvjess
3:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Any advice for a dog who seems to be sensitive to pressure changes. With Kay, Gus and now Ike, our dog barks all night once the storm enters the gulf. She is only 5 months old and that is the only thing we can figure. I have suggested giving her benedryl, but my husband worries. Anyone else have this trouble.

your vet can give you a tranquilizer. Its very mild and helps calm them. I have the same problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1260. STORMTTOP
3:21 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Oh yes 1224 .. ALL is well now ... no one will die according to your logic... the storm hasnt even turned yet!!! You're looking at fricken colorful lines on a screen!!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1258. VBgirl
3:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
I have never seen a warning like this. This is from the NWS in their hurricane local statement.

SHORELINE OF GALVESTON BAY...15 TO 22 FEET

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1257. raindancer
3:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Anything is POSSIBLE... The world may still end before tomorrow night. But Ike is not destined to be a big wind producer. Check the models. Everything is pointing towards a status quo storm - or even weakening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1256. panamasteve
10:22 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting BiloxiGirl:
Any advice for a dog who seems to be sensitive to pressure changes. With Kay, Gus and now Ike, our dog barks all night once the storm enters the gulf. She is only 5 months old and that is the only thing we can figure. I have suggested giving her benedryl, but my husband worries. Anyone else have this trouble.
Maybe give your husband a Benedryl? Just a little humour to lighten things a bit....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1255. NoMeteorsInOlogy
3:10 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quick note:

Of all aspects of hurricane development, intensity forecasts are our worst skill subset, hence the NHC conditional statement that "the waters are not exactly cool" where Ike is headed.

Last year, a hurricane when from a zero to an antihero in a matter of 12 hours, and at a pace that the available energy in the water and atmosphere should never have allowed....given our current knowledge level.

I hope the cat 2 fans are right--since all meteorologists and the NHC are very quick to admit our knowledge base for intensity forecasting is weak, to say the least, and all prudent minds agree it is best to prepare for more than is anticipated.

When it comes to intensity forecasts, we simple have not isolated enough variables to make forecasts any more than limited predictions, despite spots of accuracy, which are not the majority of our historical predictions whatsoever.

In short, our best scientists generally only know intensification after it happens, and can only describe whether conditions are favorable or unfavorable beforehand. Despite all our scientific achievements, we are a young species--and all the speculation bouncing around the blog is understandably uncertain.

If our best minds do not know -- and they are quick to admit they do not -- all we can do is guess, hear their guesses, and hopefully pat ourselves on the back afterward for what amounts to a shot in the dark (or twilight, at best).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1254. tropics21
3:21 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting PcolaJess:
ok so the pics I took of pensacola beach and the waves we had today are finally approved.
Great Pictures
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1253. StormJunkie
3:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Dry air plaguing him and no change in strength.

I think it is safest to keep calling it dry air as well ¿~) j/k y'all!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
1252. Rick54
10:21 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
Quoting Vero1:
THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES
...425 KM.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH

115mile + 115miles =230miles / 12mph = 19 hr of hurricane winds

265 X 2 = 530miles / 12 mph = 44 hrs of tropical storm winds

19 hr + 44 hrs = ONE Long TIME 63 hrs


It would be more like 44 hrs not 63 because the hurricane force winds are contained within the tropical storm force winds. It should also be less than that as well because the tropical storm force winds don't extend out the same distance in all quadrants. I do agree that it will be many many hours of nasty weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1251. RAMPAGE127
3:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
music interlude.Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1250. jtn
3:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
WW Blog is getting worse and worse...takes forever...and stuff missing...this is riduckuluos.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1249. BiloxiGirl
3:23 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Meant Fay on that dog comment. Getting tired.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1248. jb2five
3:22 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting AndyN:
Whoever it was that asked about 85 mph winds and why they(NHC) is saying 100 mph....Because the 85 is knots, not(no pun intended) 85knots X 1.175= 99.875 MPH(rounded to 100 MPH


you are right about knots versus mph, BUT the HH info says max speeds of 85 MPH...period.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1247. RitaEvac
10:22 PM CDT on September 11, 2008
As a rule when NHC has a storm going west into TX from the Central coast from Matagorday Bay....its gonna curve N.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1246. CosmicEvents
11:17 PM EDT on September 11, 2008
Seems to me like the impact on specific locations will be completely dependant on the storm's structure. If it maintains it's current structure, area's 60-100 miles east of landfall could get the worst of the weather. If the storm contracts, then areas 1-100 miles east of lanfall would feel the worst.
.
.
There's no way of predicting these things with any real confidence. The bottom line is everyone in a 200 mile stretch needs to heed the warnings and evacuation calls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1296 - 1246

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice