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Ike's storm surge an extreme danger to Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:06 PM GMT on September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike remains a huge a dangerous Category 2 hurricane, and has changed little since this morning. Ike's central pressure continues to hold steady at 950 mb, as measured by the Hurricane Hunters at 3:14 pm EDT. Ike's tiny 9-mile wide eye appears to be collapsing, which will allow a new eyewall of much larger-diameter to form. This event should allow Ike to start intensifying tonight. The latest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential image shows that the center of Ike has just finished crossing a cold eddy in the Gulf of Mexico waters, and is now beginning to pass along the north side of a warm eddy. This change in oceanic heat should also help allow Ike to intensify tonight. The eddy is not ideally positioned, though, for rapid intensification to occur. The eddy is on the left (weak) side of the hurricane, where wind speeds are slower since the forward motion of the storm subtracts from the wind speed of the circulation. These lower-speed winds will be able to evaporate less moisture from the warm ocean than if the eddy were positioned on Ike's right side. Oceanic heat content remains moderately high after Ike crosses the eddy, which should allow some modest strengthening to continue. Wind shear of 10-15 knots and dry air on Ike's west side is hampering Ike slightly, as evidenced by the lack of upper-level outflow on the storm's west side and lack of heavy thunderstorm activity. Shear is expected to decrease to 5 knots by the time of landfall Saturday morning, and I expect Ike will be maintaining its strength or slowly intensifying right up until landfall. Ike will probably be at the top end of Category 2 strength at landfall, with 110 mph winds.

Comparisons to Carla and Katrina
Ike is larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's surge will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. Ike's maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla, though.


Figure 1. Experimental storm surge heights for Ike. There is a 10% chance the storm surge from Ike will exceed these values. Data courtesy of NOAA.

The total energy of Ike
The amount of water Ike has put in motion is about 10% greater than what Katrina did, and thus we can expect Ike's storm surge damage will be similar to or greater than Katrina's. The way we can estimate this damage potential is to compute the total energy of Ike's surface winds (kinetic energy). To do this, we must look at how strong the winds are, and factor in the areal coverage of these winds. Thus, we compute the Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) by squaring the velocity of the wind and summing over all regions of the hurricane with tropical storm force winds or higher. This "Integrated Kinetic Energy" was recently proposed by Dr. Mark Powell of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division as a better measure of the destructive power of a hurricane's storm surge than the usual Category 1-5 Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, Hurricane Katrina hit Mississippi as a strong Category 3 hurricane, yet its storm surge was more characteristic of a Category 5 storm. Dr. Powell came up with a new scale to rate potential storm surge damage based on IKE (not to be confused with Hurricane Ike!) The new scale ranges from 1-6. Katrina and Wilma at their peaks both earned a 5.1 on this scale (Figure 2). At 12:30pm EDT today, Ike earned a 5.2 on this scale, the second highest kinetic energy of any Atlantic storm in the past 40 years. Hurricane Isabel of 2003 had the highest. Note that the figures I quoted in this morning's blog saying Ike had an IKE of 180, 50% higher than Katrina's, were found to be in error due to some bad data from one of the Hurricane Hunter observations (the IKE is an experimental product, after all). Thus, this morning's IKE was actually a little lower than Katrina's.


Figure 2. Comparison of the potential damage from storm surge and waves on a scale of 1 to 6 (left scale, and corresponding to little "x" marks on the plot), as a function of total Integrated Kinetic Energy in Tera-joules (IKE, on the right scale, corresponding to the little squares on the plot). Hurricane Ike at 12:30pm EDT had an IKE of 134, 10% higher than the value of 122 Katrina had at landfall in Mississippi. Ike's amount of wind energy can generate storm surge and wave damage rated at 5.2 on a scale of 1 to 6, worse than Katrina's 5.1 at landfall. Image credit:"Tropical Cyclone Destructive Potential by Integrated Kinetic Energy" by Mark Powell and Timothy Reinhold.

Ike's waves
All this energy is also going into the waves in the Gulf of Mexico, and the offshore oil rigs can expect to receive a terrific battering. At 1:50pm CDT, waves at the buoy 42001 180nm south of Louisiana peaked at 30 feet. NHC is predicting Ike's waves will peak at 50 feet (15 meters) in the northern Gulf on Friday. For comparison, Hurricane Ivan of 2004 generated 27 meter (89 foot) high waves in the Gulf of Mexico. The oil companies spent hundreds of millions of dollars upgrading their oil rigs in the Gulf in the wake of the destruction wrought by Ivan and Katrina and Rita, and I'm not anticipating severe damage to the rigs from Ike's 50-foot waves.

Ike's storm surge
According to the NOAA tide gauges, the storm tides along the Mississippi coast have peaked at 4 feet above normal, and are currently running 5 feet above normal on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. A storm surge of 5.9 feet was observed in New Orleans' Industrial Canal at 10:45 am CDT, and 5.75 feet in Waveland, Mississippi. Coastal Alabama is reporting a 4-6 foot storm surge, with 10-15 foot waves. Considering the center of Ike is over 250 miles south of these locations, it is not hard to imagine that Texas will get a 15-20 foot storm surge, even if Ike does not strengthen.

Ike will probably inundate a 250-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to the Louisiana border with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. If Ike is a Category 3+ hurricane at landfall, surges of 20+ feet are possible. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 18-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped. At noon today, a mandatory evacuation of the entire island was ordered in case this worst-case scenario is realized. The official NHC forecast is calling for maximum storm surge heights of 20 feet.

What should Texas residents do?
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive. The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office puts things in pretty stark perspective:

All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

I recommend Texas residents consult NHC's wind probability product to determine their odds of getting hurricane force winds.

For storm surge evacuation zone information, consult the Texas Division of Emergency Management.

For storm surge heights, consult our Storm surge risk for the Texas coast page.

Links to follow
Galveston, TX weather

Tide gauges along the Gulf Coast

Mid Gulf Buoy 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA (42001)

Tropical disturbance 91L north of Puerto Rico
An area of disturbed weather (91L) has developed a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. Satellite loops show that 91L has a very small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, but does have a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. A surface circulation is not apparent, but the mid-level spin could work its way down to the surface over the next day or two. The disturbance in under about 20 knots of wind shear, and is also having trouble with some dry air to the west. Shear is expected to remain 10-20 knots though Saturday, then increase to 25 knots. We may expect some slow development until Saturday, when wind shear should be too high to allow further development. None of the models are developing 91L. By Tuesday, as 91L will be approaching the east coast of Florida, shear is expected to decline to 15 knots, and some additional development may be possible, if the disturbance holds together that long.

I'll have an update tonight if there's a significant change in Ike.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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2346. CybrTeddy
9:50 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Yep, winds are finally catching up to the low Pressure. Recon getting 125 MPHish winds at Flight Level via Vortex Message.
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2345. capefearspt
9:48 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Let's hope the kite surfers stay home for a few days.
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2344. FormerFloridian
5:49 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting deb1:
This link:

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

has good coverage of the various TV stations near Houston covering Hurricane Ike.

Also www.khou.com is live streaming.


you can watch the news feed from the Houston area here:

LINK

they have shown a few webcams and the two I saw, there were only a few cars on the road. don't know where they were located unfortunately.
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2343. TropicalNonsense
9:51 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Ike trying to consolidate his core some this am.

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2342. aquak9
5:47 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
txalwaysprepared--

sure no power is no fun. but have you seen the videos of surge? here's what's left behind:

cars boats housepieces trees branches bathtubs snakes chemicals sewage fish deadthings

and they stay for a long time.

please get out....and give someone you trust here, a contact number.

oh yea, cell phone towers run on generators- no fuel to the cell phone towers, no cell phones.
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2341. Hhunter
4:46 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
tx always prepared this post is for you posted 1hour ago..please read and leave

Quoting palmpointbiloxi:
I live in Biloxi on Back Bay... over 25 feet above sea level. I stayed at my house for Katrina... didn't think water was going to be a problem. I watched my neighbors houses wash away... saw a dead guy hanging in a tree in my back yard (washed there by the storm surge). And ten-foot waves bang my house for three hours. I had to watch my crying family beg God to save us (!!!!!!!!) while waves banged our house so load we could not hear ouselves think. If Katrina had been a night time storm, literally thousands of people would have died in Mississippi. Most people did not hear (althought the sun herald newspaper here screamed to people to listen) about the more than 10,000 people who hung onto trees, ice chests, pieces of wood, roof tops, etc. In the dark, most of the people would have died. Too many don't know that because of the attention on New Orleans. If you live in a low-lying area lower than 30 feet below sea level, get out. Do not even think about staying. Go to a shelter... whatever! Don't stay!! Even if you are lucky enough to live through this, you will be mentally affected and the scars will last a life time... and your kids, if they live, will need mental help! MY HOPE IS THAT THIS POST WILL SPREAD. CUT IT AND SEND IT TO PEOPLE YOU CARE ABOUT WHO MIGHT BE THINKING ABOUT STAYING. SEND IT BY EMAIL. DON'T EXPECT THEM TO COME TO THIS SITE TO READ IT!!!! Don't tell people to write their social security numbers on their bodies. Tell them to get out! God have mercy on the souls of those who don't heed this advice...

The number one reason died in Mississippi was because they tried to save pets! And one last powerful image: They found a guy in Biloxi (I hear he was not the only one) with nail holes in his hands from tried to beat his way through his roof from his atic. He did not make it....

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2340. seminolesfan
9:47 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting atmosweather:


I would leave but only if you can get out before conditions really deteriorate...so the time to act is this morning at the very latest.


I'm hoping the tone of voice on the, "what do you think?" was sarcastic

texallprep-was i readin' ya right?
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2339. deb1
9:45 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
This link:

http://www.livenewscameras.com/map.html

has good coverage of the various TV stations near Houston covering Hurricane Ike.

Also www.khou.com is live streaming.
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2338. TropicalNonsense
9:49 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
If Ike makes it to Cat3 and follows the NHC Track it will mean the majority of Houston will feel atleast cat1 Hurricane winds for a prolonged period perhaps up to 8-10 hours in duration.

Houston is the 4th largest city in the US with a metro population of over 2 million. We are talking about Billions of dollars in damage if Ike makes landfall just south of Galveston. I mean Katrina type dollar amounts all over again we are gonna see. The variable damage will be considerably less with a cat2 though passing just North of Galveston. This too me is what i believe will happen but this time its gonna be very close folks.
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2337. CaneHunter031472
9:47 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting MercForHire:


Tone of "alarm" is more like it. "Wishcasting" is a very poor, overused term. Wish they would just ban it. Anytime someone posts that the storm has just increased, someone always jumps in with "wishcasting".


Ok dude just have fun with it then. Good luck youll need it by the way thank for you recent, sudden, but enlightened insight.
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2336. IKE
4:45 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
And the Astros are playing such great baseball....awesome winning streak...within 3 games of the wild-card...and this dam hurricane has to come along and possibly kill their momentum and possibly damage Minute Maid Park....it's just a game and that's secondary...but, after rooting for a team for 35 years...UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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2335. seminolesfan
9:40 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting clwmark:
I was out at the beach yesterday and decided to go frolic in the big waves and was completely wiped out by a 5 foot breaker. I'm 6'3 and weigh 295 and this thing just tossed me around like I was a rag doll. A person or a structure would not stand a chance in a 20 ft. storm surge it would just flatten every thing in it's path.


Exactly...it's simply amazing how some ppl think 'riding out the storm' will be exciting. But so would jumping from a plane without a parachute.

BTW-Morning everyone
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2334. nrtiwlnvragn
5:47 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Click on image to view original size in a new window



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2333. txalwaysprepared
9:44 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting IKE:


I know Katy is near Houston...get ready for no electricity and possible wind damage. Maybe I'm wrong though.


They have pretty much told us that our entire area will be without power. (meaning Houston/Galveston metros) My family and I will be heading on a little "vacation" after the storm passes. We won't stay anywhere in the area without power for weeks.
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2332. MercForHire
9:42 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting CaneHunter031472:
I have noticed some people to ha ve a tone of exitement because this system will be stronger than anticipated. All Im going to say in regard to this is that by Sunday morning every wishcaster in Texas will wish this system was a weak one that is if they make it alive. Once they see what's left of their home and realize that the situation will last for many months to come they will too start wishing those systems away.


Tone of "alarm" is more like it. "Wishcasting" is a very poor, overused term. Wish they would just ban it. Anytime someone posts that the storm has just increased, someone always jumps in with "wishcasting".
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2331. Hhunter
4:46 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
you should leave now . i would rate your surge danger high
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2330. TXSkywatcher
9:44 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Mostly just a lurker but wanted to comment on the evacs. I work near Longview, TX and served a gentleman last night who had left near Galveston. He said that it was a mess down there. He also commented that traffic on I-10 east around Lake Charles was being directed northward. Also saw on TWC a picture of massive jams on Hwy 59 north towards Livingston, TX.

On a side note, I gave the man an employee discount on his food and would urge anyone else that may encounter someone fron the area to try and help as much as they can in any way possible. Blessings and prayers to everyone during this hour of need.

EDIT: I spoke to him around 9:00 PM. Hopefully conditions have improved some.
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2329. txalwaysprepared
9:42 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting MercForHire:


2 of the streaming web-cams about an hour ago showed a MASSIVE traffic jam behind a bunch of blinking blue & red lights.

Wonder how many more will happen like that because of the last minute call to action??


On those traffic cams... where is it located.
Two bottleneck areas... North on 45 in the woodlands. And West in Katy before Brookshire. Both only last about 3-4 miles and are regular tie ups.
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2328. IKE
4:42 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


That's my house lol. I am now 125 feet above sea level in Katy.


I know Katy is near Houston...get ready for no electricity and possible wind damage. Maybe I'm wrong though.
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2327. Hhunter
4:29 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
whating fox news houston simulcast...these folks are storm surge idiots...
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2326. AtmosphericWrath
9:42 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


ANd get this... my area... 77573... vol. evac. Not mandatory. Galveston County officials are going to pay the price for extremely bad judgements.


You are leaving, right? No offense please this is absolutely not meant to be rude or insulting....
If you stay you will be making a bad judgment also. :/
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2325. MercForHire
9:40 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting clwmark:
Wow so much for being schooled by Ike over night. I woke up expecting to see a well formed eye wall with some deep convection around the COC and instead Ike looks a little sickly. He sure is schooling us on how to suck in a lot of dry air though which is much better news for the Tx. coast it doesn't look like he will intensify to much more before landfall. The surge is going to be the big player with Ike IMO and I hope the coastal residents are heeding the warnings to get out.


He's strengthening as we speak....expected to go higher.
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2324. txalwaysprepared
9:41 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Why didn't you evacuate?


ANd get this... my area... 77573... vol. evac. Not mandatory. Galveston County officials are going to pay the price for extremely bad judgements.
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2323. Hurricane4Lex
9:37 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting clwmark:
I was out at the beach yesterday and decided to go frolic in the big waves and was completely wiped out by a 5 foot breaker. I'm 6'3 and weigh 295 and this thing just tossed me around like I was a rag doll. A person or a structure would not stand a chance in a 20 ft. storm surge it would just flatten every thing in it's path.


kind of makes you feel how the tsunami victims felt that day in 04

not saying it will be that bad but ya those of you still in Galveston in tall hotel structures have a pretty good chance of getting cut off or if youre in your house-certain death
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2322. Kjsasey
4:39 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting MercForHire:


Please stop SCREAMING too. :) :)


If you ignore him you won't see him screaming! He is a troll!
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2321. IKE
4:37 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting AtmosphericWrath:


Oh damn.... Make plans now. Make preparations. Pack up and leave.. Go south towards San Antonio.... You still have time, right?
I think so.... Please. Never take risks when the potential for danger is very real.


I would have left, if it meant getting up at midnight or 2 in the morning to avoid the heaviest tracking. When you see a buoy that's around 60 miles NW of the COC with sustained winds at 80 knots or 92 mph...and that's on the weaker side of IKE....that's rather scary....SE Texas is fixing to get IKE'd.
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2320. txalwaysprepared
9:39 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting IKE:


Why didn't you evacuate?


That's my house lol. I am now 125 feet above sea level in Katy.
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2319. lopaka001
5:40 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Real Time Bay readings from all stations!
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2318. washingaway
4:38 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting IKE:
New Orleans NAS, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 35 sec ago
Light Rain
82 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 31 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 53 mph

Pressure: 29.72 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3900 ft
Overcast 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 0 ft


Yep, and those gust have been for 20 to 30 seconds long. Amazing this far out.
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2317. stormwatcherTX
9:34 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
When I finish my cookie and cup of tea (which is helping to settle my nerves), I'll get myself back to bed. Looks like I'll need all the energy I can muster over the next couple of days, so sleep is good.

Take care everyone who is in the storms path. Sure it can seem a novelty for those doing this for the first time, but this storm is already a killer. Meeting Jack the Ripper in a dark alley would also be a novelty, but I'd rather not do that thanks. Show common sense, put your safety first. Get out if you must, otherwise Hunker Down. See you the other side of this. :-)
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2316. TxKeef
4:37 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting MercForHire:


2 of the streaming web-cams about an hour ago showed a MASSIVE traffic jam behind a bunch of blinking blue & red lights.

Wonder how many more will happen like that because of the last minute call to action??


links please:)
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2315. CaneHunter031472
9:37 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
KUDOS to the NHC they have become so accurate that it is scary even for their 5 day cone. can't wait to see how the 7 day cone will look like.
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2314. IKE
4:36 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
New Orleans NAS, Louisiana (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 35 sec ago
Light Rain
82 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: 31 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 53 mph

Pressure: 29.72 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 90 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2600 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3900 ft
Overcast 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 0 ft
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2313. AtmosphericWrath
9:35 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


My house is 23ft above. 11 miles from Galv. Bay (at the closest) 5 miles from Nassua Bay and less than 2 miles from Clear Creek.

(Church/school/job .4 miles from Nassau Bay and 5 miles from Galveston Bay)

What do you think?


Oh damn.... Make plans now. Make preparations. Pack up and leave.. Go south towards San Antonio.... You still have time, right?
I think so.... Please. Never take risks when the potential for danger is very real.
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2312. lopaka001
5:32 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting IKE:
Buoy at 27.55N and 92.5W...Link

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 79.6 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.05 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.28 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.0 °F


Yeah we been watching the shell rig for hours now..
Pressure been dropping..

This station had a 28.34in reading and 30 foot waves.
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2311. atmosweather
5:35 AM EDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


My house is 23ft above. 11 miles from Galv. Bay (at the closest) 5 miles from Nassua Bay and less than 2 miles from Clear Creek.

(Church/school/job .4 miles from Nassau Bay and 5 miles from Galveston Bay)

What do you think?


I would leave but only if you can get out before conditions really deteriorate...so the time to act is this morning at the very latest.
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2310. clwmark
9:25 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting StormJunkie:
And anyone stupid enough to want to 'experience a hurricane',

One thing to want to experience the winds in a secure structure...Completely different thing to experience the surge. Almost certain death.
I was out at the beach yesterday and decided to go frolic in the big waves and was completely wiped out by a 5 foot breaker. I'm 6'3 and weigh 295 and this thing just tossed me around like I was a rag doll. A person or a structure would not stand a chance in a 20 ft. storm surge it would just flatten every thing in it's path.
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2309. MercForHire
9:30 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


Evacs have been going smoothly.


2 of the streaming web-cams about an hour ago showed a MASSIVE traffic jam behind a bunch of blinking blue & red lights.

Wonder how many more will happen like that because of the last minute call to action??
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2308. IKE
4:32 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting txalwaysprepared:


My house is 23ft above. 11 miles from Galv. Bay (at the closest) 5 miles from Nassua Bay and less than 2 miles from Clear Creek.

(Church/school/job .4 miles from Nassau Bay and 5 miles from Galveston Bay)

What do you think?


Why didn't you evacuate?
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2307. tristanh72
4:32 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Since I'm learning all this, any chance this blow up of wind and storms is part of diurnal max? isn't that close to this time?
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2306. StormJunkie
9:31 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Last post...
Super high def 3d Houston radar
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2305. trmptr
9:30 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Just to update the people who tried to help me earlier. The post on here about the aftermath someone saw, really freaked me out. I went and told my parents. And I demanded that my brother leave and take his wife and baby and my little sister. I am going to stay with my parents here. But at least they will be getting out.

I don't think I've ever been more worried about anything...
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2304. txalwaysprepared
9:29 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting Hhunter:
tx always prepared..have you left ?


My house is 23ft above. 11 miles from Galv. Bay (at the closest) 5 miles from Nassua Bay and less than 2 miles from Clear Creek.

(Church/school/job .4 miles from Nassau Bay and 5 miles from Galveston Bay)

What do you think?
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2303. StormJunkie
9:29 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Oh, you will tx, I'll be living on cat naps for the next 48.

I would think at least partially lopa, but honestly I am paying more attention to impacts and local conditions, etc right now. Bout the only things I am watching data wise are the HH flights, Sat, and radar.

See y'all in a few hours.
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2302. bajelayman2
9:28 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
2288: The San Luis Hotel on Galveston is sold out! What does that tell you?


It tells me that a lot of people cannot fathom how bad a hurricane, particularly with storm surge, can be.

As for THIS storm...!!!
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2301. IKE
4:30 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting washingaway:
Maybe that dry air to the north can keep it at bay, just hoping.


I'm seeing that too. Looks like the heaviest convection is displaced to the south of the COC.
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2300. flibinite
9:24 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
We're reading you, AtmosphericWrath, it's just that many of us don't know what to say. We've seen green funktops on Ike before, and then it split apart, but you're right that most of the driest air is gone, and that might not happen again.

I need to go to bed. But I still can't get it out of my head that last night, when I heard that they weren't making evacuations from Galveston mandatory (at the time), I heard some music outside, and when I opened my window to listen, I found out it was someone, about a half-mile away it seemed, sending the song "Taps" out to the world.

I'm not a big omen believer, but that shook me to my shoes, and I've been scared ever since about Ike.

See you all tomorrow afternoon, and good luck to all.

Jo
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2299. IKE
4:25 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Buoy at 27.55N and 92.5W...Link

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 79.6 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.05 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.28 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.0 °F
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2298. washingaway
4:26 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Maybe that dry air to the north can keep it at bay, just hoping.
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2297. MercForHire
9:27 AM GMT on September 12, 2008
Quoting HarvardMBA:
IF THEY STARTED SCREAMING


Please stop SCREAMING too. :) :)
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2296. GoHogsGo
4:28 AM CDT on September 12, 2008
Quoting capefearspt:

I second that, I just wish i had a workstation and spacepilot at home. my home pc is getting tired...


On the google earth, where are the instructions for adding the hh data?
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