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Severe Weather to Ramp Down This Weekend, Temporarily

By: Bob Henson 5:29 PM GMT on March 30, 2017

A brief break in our multi-day spate of U.S. severe weather appears to be forthcoming, but not until one more day of widespread severe storms. In its Day 1 outlook issued at 11:30 am CDT Thursday, the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center placed a large swath from the Ohio Valley to the Gulf Coast under a slight risk of severe weather through Thursday night, with a pocket of enhanced risk over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday’s setup is looking less potent than its counterparts earlier this week, largely because of widespread clouds, showers, and thunderstorms already ongoing late Thursday morning. The weaker storms now covering much of Illinois and neighboring areas will tamp down on daytime heating toward the north end of the risk area. Meanwhile, a large thunderstorm complex centered in southeast Louisiana will impede Gulf moisture from flowing toward the enhanced risk area. Even though a compact, energetic upper-level trough is approaching the Mississippi Valley, there will be only limited instability for the trough to work with, given the factors above.


Figure 1. A GOES-16 infrared satellite image from 11:21 am CDT Thursday, March 30, 2017, shows the upper-level low centered near the KS/MO border, with extensive clouds and thunderstorms stretching ahead of it from the Great Lakes to the Gulf of Mexico. A small pocket of relatively clear air may allow for storm redevelopment on Thursday afternoon over the lower Ohio Valley. GOES-16 data are preliminary, non-operational, and still being tested. Image credit: NEXLAB/College of Dupage.


Figure 2. NOAA/SPC’s Day 1 outlook issued at 11:50 am CDT Thursday, March 30, 2017, includes an enhanced risk of severe weather for parts of southern Illinois and Indiana, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee, surrounded by a much broader region of slight risk.

Tornado tallies for 2017: Still at a record clip
This week’s much-anticipated severe weather has produced plenty of large hail and high wind but thankfully, few tornadoes. SPC logged 7 preliminary tornado reports on Monday from Mississippi to Kentucky. A total of 17 reports came in from west Texas on Tuesday, with 4 reports from southeast Texas and central Arkansas on Wednesday. None of this week’s tornadoes thus far have been especially intense or destructive.

As of Thursday morning, the year to date had seen a total of 24 tornado-related fatalities in the U.S., all in January and February. The preliminary "inflation-adjusted" total of 349 tornadoes through Wednesday keeps 2017 at record levels for the largest number of tornadoes up to this point in the year in records going back to 1954.


Figure 3. Tara Shadoan takes her belongings before the insurance company tows her car damaged by a hailstorm the night before in Highland Village, Texas, on Monday, March 27, 2017. Image credit: Jae S. Lee/The Dallas Morning News via AP.

A pause, and then another burst next week?
Pockets of severe weather may continue through the weekend, but the fast pace of upper-level lows and troughs will make it difficult for adequate instability to get into the right place for a major outbreak. SPC is calling for a marginal risk of severe weather across parts of the mid-Atlantic on Friday, in association with the upper low now traversing the Ohio Valley, as well as a marginal risk over the southern High Plains ahead of the next system. This strong upper-level trough will become a cut-off low over the Southern Rockies late Friday into Saturday, then accelerate eastward across the Gulf Coast states from Sunday through Tuesday. It’s a safe bet that large clusters of intense storms will develop ahead of this trough, but these clusters may set up just offshore in the northern Gulf, reducing the risk of severe weather inland.

Yet another strong upper-level trough will enter the Plains by late Tuesday. This will be one to watch, as models project it to generate a very strong surface low, with powerful flow through the lowest few miles of the atmosphere leading to ample wind shear from the Southern Plains to the Midwest. The main question mark is how quickly moisture will return to the area.


Figure 4. March is often Colorado’s snowiest month. The snowstorm of March 17 - 19, 2003, was the most intense to strike the Denver area in over 80 years. In some parts of the Rocky Mountain foothills west of Boulder, more than 80 inches (2 meters) of snow fell. Image credit: UCAR, photo by Carlye Calvin.

End-of-month snow blitz for the Rockies
The upper low cutting off over the Southern Rockies on Friday and Saturday is on track to bring plenty of welcome precipitation to the Wyoming/Colorado mountains (as much as 1 to 2 feet of snow in favored areas) and on the adjacent high plains. Temperatures may be just cold enough for a wet snow along most of the Colorado Front Range, including Denver and Boulder, although periods of rain could cut back on the totals at some of the lower urban elevations.

Both Denver and Boulder have measured just a trace of snow in March thus far. That’s a notably meager total in what’s typically one of the snowiest months of the year. In Denver records going back to 1882, only two other Marches—2012 and 1995—got only a trace of snow for the entire month. It’s quite possible Denver will see measurable flakes by midnight Friday night. Boulder may have a better shot than Denver at a trace-only March, since its March 31 observation will be taken at the local COOP site at 6:00 pm. Friday.


Figure 5. The SREF ensemble-based modeling system projects a wide range of potential snowfall for Broomfield, CO (between Boulder and Denver). The big spread isn’t a surprise given that snow totals will hinge in large part on a very small temperature range. The ensemble average of around 12” by Saturday night (solid black line) seems plausible if temperatures get cold enough. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

Three storm chasers killed on Tuesday in Texas
Three storm chasers died on Tuesday afternoon in a collision near the town of Spur, TX, east of Lubbock. Killed were Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall, contractors for the Weather Channel, and Corbin Jaeger, an Arizona-based chaser who filed reports on the website MadWX Chasing. Williamson and Yarnall were featured on TWC’s series “Storm Wranglers,” which debuted last fall. The Texas Department of Public Safety reported that Williamson and Yarnall were traveling north on a farm-to-market road on assignment with TWC when they ran a stop sign and collided with Jaeger’s vehicle, which was traveling west on another farm-to-market road.

“Kelley and Randy were beloved members of the weather community as well as true weather fans. We will miss them. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and friends of all three victims as they mourn this loss,” said TWC’s Stephanie Abrams. “Corbin was one-of-a-kind and will be missed deeply,” noted a statement on the MadWx Facebook page. “Our thoughts and prayers go out to Corbin's friends and family, as well as the friends and family of Kelley and Randy, who also passed away in the accident.” For more, see the online video from TWC’s Ari Salsalari and a statement issued by the Weather Channel.

Bob Henson

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Only 8 years ago

Here we are.





Rest in peace
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1237 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1229 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1228 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1226 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1205 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1155 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1152 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1150 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1142 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1119 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1052 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1032 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1013 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 956 AM CDT THU MAR 30 2017
reports of widespread flooding eastern australia due to debbie. she was loaded with precip. a heavy one.
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Thank You Mr. Henson; the current SPC chart has 367 preliminary tornado totals
for the US so far through March 21st (or February 17th ?); but your numbers may
be more accurate depending on your inside source. Either way, these preliminary
3 month totals are impressive considering the 3-year climatology on this chart......
.............How bad can it get this season once we get to the peak period in May and
on the way there in April?


TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI FEB 17 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 141 - 17 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB 115 - 102 3 42 39 4 7 0 0 2 3 4 0 0 1
MAR 111 - 86 11 20 38 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
APR - - 141 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 90 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 38 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 20 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 367 - 971 1177 886 1041 24 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8

Very thankful at the moment that there is not enough instability across tornado alley to spark an outbreak today because of the more stable air mass in place that You have noted as a partial result of the prior lows and cooling effect from prior rains (and the current rain shield); it is one impressive looking low otherwise:


 
Quoting 7. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Mr. Henson; the current SPC chart has 367 preliminary tornado totals
for the US so far through March 21st (or February 17th ?); but your numbers may
be more accurate depending on your inside source. Either way, these preliminary
3 month totals are impressive considering the 3-year climatology on this chart......
.............How bad can it get this season once we get to the peak period in May and
on the way there in April?


TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI FEB 17 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 141 - 17 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB 115 - 102 3 42 39 4 7 0 0 2 3 4 0 0 1
MAR 111 - 86 11 20 38 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
APR - - 141 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 90 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 38 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 20 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 367 - 971 1177 886 1041 24 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8




Whoops! I cited the "inflation-adjusted" total, which is always lower than the actual (preliminary) total for any given point in a current year. I've noted the inflation adjustment and added a link. Thanks for the catch.
lol, this site, this country, is unbelievable. Errors right and left, nobody knows anything.
From the previous blog

Quoting 449. cameronstaugustine:

[...] The younger generations seem to understand these facts and the importance of slowing down global warming...the old retired dudes don't seem to get it...they are stuck in a memory of when cars were as big as boats and the visible signs of America being number one were active smoke stacks spewing impressive looking black smoke.

Don't worry folks...this is just a bump in the road..last gasp as I said and as we wait this out the courts will help slow down the damage from Commrade, Putin, loving Trump. Make noise folks!

When I read your words above, I remembered an article I posted on Dr. Rood's blog in 2013. The headline of the article is "‘One funeral at a time’: Big Bang denial and the search for truth". The article ends with these words:

A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.

Or, to paraphrase ever so slightly: “Science advances one funeral at a time.”


The whole article is well worth reading.
Quoting 11. Xandra:

From the previous blog


When I read your words above, I remembered an article I posted on Dr. Rood's blog in 2013. The headline of the article is "‘One funeral at a time’: Big Bang denial and the search for truth". The article ends with these words:

A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.

Or, to paraphrase ever so slightly: “Science advances one funeral at a time.”


The whole article is well worth reading.


Yep, the change comes when those die off and new generation infiltrates the system. The future is technology. Machines and robots will be doing the work in 100 years. Today's society can't comprehend that or accept that. Which is why they will be dead and gone when that time comes. And by dying off is what will bring that change.
From Little Green Footballs:

Climate Scientist Faces Off With the Virulently Anti-Science House Science Committee

Appalling contempt for science


At a congressional hearing on climate science Wednesday, Michael Mann lamented that he was the only witness representing the overwhelming scientific consensus that manmade global warming poses a major threat.

“We find ourselves at this hearing today, with three individuals who represent that tiny minority that reject this consensus or downplay its significance, and only one—myself—who is in the mainstream,” he said in his opening testimony.

Sitting on either side of Mann were the other three witnesses: Judith Curry, John Christy, and Roger Pielke, Jr.—scientists who have clashed with Mann in the past and are frequently sought after by Republican politicians who reject mainstream climate science. [...]

The whole charade reminded me of Bill Nye debating Ken Ham, a fruitless exercise. But this is a hearing at the United States House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology with much wider and devastating implications. The shamelessness of these Republican pols* in denying the science behind climate change and dooming future generations of humans to catastrophic disasters boggles the mind. Dr. Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) from Penn State has to be commended for undergoing two hours of hostile questioning, sitting between the GOP’s go-to climate science deniers, and a mind-numbing denial of science from members of the top science committee in Congress.

Video - Watch the whole horrifying hearing.

Click here to read full article.

See also this article from Mother Jones: A Scientist Just Spent 2 Hours Debating the Biggest Global Warming Deniers in Congress

Michael Mann vs. the House "science" committee.


A hearing of the House Committee on Science, Space & Technology jgroup/Getty
These two charts should update automatically as the afternoon moves on...................Impressive:


today Reports Graphic
satellite image
Thanks for the new entry, Bob. Looks like weather in the US is especially wild this spring?

Not so in Germany, where we already experience summerlike days, tomorrow up to 25C (77C). German national weather service DWD has already announced March 2017 to be the warmest March in Germany since records began (1888) with 3,7C above normal in respect to the years of 1961-1990, and still 2,7C above average of 1981-2010.
From other countries in central and western Europe there are reports of current unusual warmth, too, but I spare you the details.

Meanwhile the current heatwave in India (I had some links about that yesterday) hits already insane levels:

Heat blast across India, Maharashtra's Bhira town sizzles at 46.5°C (115.7F)
Amit Bhattacharya | TNN | Updated: Mar 30, 2017, 11.24 AM IST
NEW DELHI: It's barely the end of March but temperatures across much of India are already racing to peak summer levels.
Bhira town in Maharashtra recorded a searing 46.5 degrees on Tuesday — quite unheard of in March — as the Met office warned of heatwave conditions in parts of central, west and north India.
While IMD officials cautioned that the temperature reading in Bhira may not be very accurate, other places in Maharashtra were blazing as well. Akola recorded 44.1 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, as officials said a set of meteorological conditions had come together to cause the heat. ...


And Australia is always in for weather extremes, apart from the current flooding from Debbie:

Warm weather to stretch into winter: BOM
Western Australian, Belinda Tasker, Thursday, 30 March 2017 3:53AM
... The Bureau of Meteorology's latest climate update forecasts above average temperatures for most of the country between April and June. ...
BOM forecasters say most climate models are continuing to suggest an El Nino will develop this winter as a result of warmer sea temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. ...
The bureau's latest update comes after the summer heat extended into the start of autumn, with Victoria and Tasmania recording their warmest March temperatures.
And while it remained warm in much of NSW, the state's northeast recorded two to three times as much rain as usual by mid March. ...

More details see link above.


Temperature anomalies in the next five days (look at Siberia and Canada!)
Quoting 13. Xandra:

From Little Green Footballs:

Climate Scientist Faces Off With the Virulently Anti-Science House Science Committee
(snip)

This represents the presenters better, I think. :-)
BTW, greetings from Rome to Washington DC ...
Vatican says Trump risks losing climate change leadership to China
Thursday, March 30, 2017 8:18 a.m. CDT
ROME (Reuters) - The Vatican urged U.S. President Donald Trump to listen to "dissenting voices" and reconsider his position on climate change on Thursday, saying the United States risked losing its environmental protection leadership to China.
Pope Francis has made defense of the environment a key plank of his papacy, strongly backing scientific opinion that global warming is caused mostly by human activity.
"This is a challenge for us," said Cardinal Peter Turkson, the pope's point man for the environmental, immigration and development, when asked about Trump's executive order dismantling Obama-era climate change regulations and his immigration policies.
"Fortunately, in the United States, there are dissenting voices, people who are against Trump's positions," said Turkson, who is from Ghana and was one of the driving forces behind the pope's 2015 encyclical letter on environmental protection.
"This, for us, is a sign that little by little, other positions and political voices will emerge and so we hope that Trump himself will reconsider some of his decisions," Turkson told reporters at a breakfast meeting. ...

Whole article see link above.
Quoting 5. islander101010:

reports of widespread flooding eastern australia due to debbie. she was loaded with precip. a heavy one.


39 inches in 48 hours near landfall .

CBS reported our current system rained 9 inches in Louisiana yesterday.

The 7 percent law ain't a hoax.

I have noticed over the years that when the deniers do, or say something really stupid, my Google news feed is full of "hoax reports" of an octopus being found in parking garages in Miami Beach, or hail stones the size of baseballs eating car windshields around Dallas. ( The cloud tops with this one were 40,000 to 50,000 feet this week )
One grows numb to the daily "tick-tock" , but having watched all this from an "observed event" point of view since B-17 broke off Antarctica , 17 years ago . I can say that the 7 percent law has us well, and truly by the short and curlies. I once set out to make list of this for one year , knowing that "extreme precpitation events" are one of the keystone predictions of the hypothesis. That year , a weak hurricane dumped 8 inches of rain in one hour in Vera Cruz.

But nothing touched this -

The Swat Valley -
I never saw a number on just how bad the rainfall was there , until this story from the Guardian . " It was raining so hard, you couldn't see a man standing in front of you " ..............

" In more than 60 hours of non-stop torrential rainfall, the floods washed all that away. The north-west normally receives 500mm (20in) of rain in the month of July; over one five-day period 5,000mm fell. "It was incredible," said Sameenullah Afridi, a local United Nations official. "

That's 196.8 inches of rain , 16 feet .

Link

Here's the whole thing.........................
The Extreme Rain Events of 2010
By Colorado Bob


Here's the key idea behind this new world , heat is looking a condenser. As It rises on water molecules of our ever hotter oceans , it does not care where that condenser is . Whether rushing to the poles , the top of the Hindu Kush , or 50,000 feet over Dallas. Once it finds that condenser , it drops it's water taxi. And gravity takes over.

This is why old people don't die in Fla. in the summer. We call it air conditioning. And water drips out of these machines.
17. barbamz

And everyone else here .

Do me a big favor , join the Scribblers . It's a world wide group of commenters . Doing exactly what you are so skilled at. He works really hard to make it "troll free". So the thread is not like anything on the web today. And He is man on a mission .

Trump’s Attack on Clean Power Threatens Livable Climate, Public Health, and Hundreds of Thousands of Energy Jobs
A message from the Spotter Network:

We’ve received many messages over the past 24 hours asking about a possible memorial for the storm chasers killed in a traffic accident on Tuesday. Due to active weather continuing over the country for the next several days, we will not be doing a Spotter Network memorial at this time so as to keep the map clear for the mission of Spotter Network, to provide real-time information to the National Weather Service. Please remember the close friends and families of these chasers in your thoughts and please, please, be careful if you are out on the roads this spring and summer pursuing storms.
If you are able, please help to support the families of the chasers with a donation. We will be posting the links below in the comments as we get them. If you have information we don’t, please feel free to message it to us and we’ll add it.

Case in point -

A Halo of Storms and Heatwaves — New Study Confirms that Global Warming is Wrecking the Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream
We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events.” — Michael Mann

Link
Quoting 19. RobertWC:

17. barbamz

And everyone else here .

Do me a big favor , join the Scribblers . It's a world wide group of commenters . Doing exactly what you are so skilled at. He works really hard to make it "troll free". So the thread is not like anything on the web today. And He is man on a mission .

Trump’s Attack on Clean Power Threatens Livable Climate, Public Health, and Hundreds of Thousands of Energy Jobs
I looked all over that site for a way to join and did not find it. I thought maybe contributing was the key -- no go (or maybe I didn't contribute enough). There must be a secret password.


Anyone know tornado chances for North Georgia?
(Mine is a 20% chance.)
Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am; have to pick up the kid early from her math tutor; hopefully a future scientist in a well funded world........................
Quoting 11. Xandra:

From the previous blog


When I read your words above, I remembered an article I posted on Dr. Rood's blog in 2013. The headline of the article is "‘One funeral at a time’: Big Bang denial and the search for truth". The article ends with these words:

A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.

Or, to paraphrase ever so slightly: “Science advances one funeral at a time.”


The whole article is well worth reading.


The "science advances one funeral at a time" quote has been attributed to Niels Bohr.


This week severe weather came at a vary high price
Just about to clear rnd 2 in S C IL, rnd 1 is giving CThom his rain now, was not very bad at all, only had about an hour of sun between clouds of both systems, some thunder but nothing bad. Did notice a lot of strikes in Metro East right after lunch, so those hail & one wind reports in 14) not to surprising.


Currently, 59, presuure up a little to 29.54", mainly W wind, shows we had a near 30 gust, but very light currently.


Had the lighter soaking rains I'd hoped for earlier. .2, .3, .2 & <.1, Had .6 in gauge at noon from last night & mainly this a.m. Also, hearing reports morels are popping now as had also hoped for. Have to head to woods soon. 10 day also somewhat favorable for them as no breaking heat wave, maybe a little too cool w/ highs from mid 50s to mid 60s ( A few lower 70s would help ).


Normally stay out of the fray, but this anti-science crap drives me nuts. They trust the physics, chemistry, etc. if it's building their roads, bridges, refineries, pipelines, drilling rigs, guiding their horizontal wells, designing & building the computers & phones they spread their nonsense with, but forbid it goes against its their profits or lobby donations... off soapbox
Quoting 22. CaneFreeCR:

I looked all over that site for a way to join and did not find it. I thought maybe contributing was the key -- no go (or maybe I didn't contribute enough). There must be a secret password.

You have to register at wordpress.com:
https://wordpress.com/
It's similar to Disqus. Quite a lot of sites use wordpress.
31. bwi
Expecting a good soaking rain in DC area tomorrow and again next Tuesday. That will be helpful.

Quoting 22. CaneFreeCR:

I looked all over that site for a way to join and did not find it. I thought maybe contributing was the key -- no go (or maybe I didn't contribute enough). There must be a secret password.

You have to register at wordpress.com:
https://wordpress.com/
Thanks for the update! The brief respite from severe weather is good, but we're now getting into the peak months of the tornado season - April/May/June. Lots of severe weather still to come - hopefully we won't have any major tornado outbreaks.






Catástrofe climática en Comodoro Rivadavia 29-03-17

Torrential rains triggered flashflooding in southern Argentina yesterday, esp. in Comodoro Rivadavia. Above one of many videos.
As of yet I could only find Spanish articles, f.e. this, or this.

Good night everyone from summerly Germany ;-) Guess I'll have to dig out my summer wardrobe tomorrow ...
Comment 101 .
If one wishes to comment on Blogger . One needs to sign on to it. This dead thread here was a point in time , a really rare apple. The richest thread on the web.

That's why I came here . All of it will crash.

This is and has always been the richest thread the web has ever seen. It was a jewel of minds . Not because what the Doctor wrote . But what we could display.

It is , and has always been a cut above. Now we sell out to a lower world.

God help us all.

This week in severe weather have been a major bust in the forecast How ever this severe weather came at a vary high prices has it killed. 2 storm chaser we all new and loved even no it was a car accident just saying this week severe weather came at a high price the last storm chaser that bob for got too add that was killed in a car accident was Andy wish all so had too. Be a storm chaser when Andy was driving home and a car was going the wrong way and hit him
SPACE X NAILS IT

WOW. 2nd return successful!!!
Quoting 40. gr8lakebreeze:



That was quite a party.


Im as light as a moth near flame.

Neil is grinning..dat Neil Grin.


Wow,wow,wow
Quoting 41. Patrap:

SPACE X NAILS IT

WOW. 2nd return successful!!!


thanks for that link patrap, had no idea that was happening today. was incredible to watch, we're such a cool species once and a while ;)

here it comes !!
SpaceX launch from 39A. First reused rocket. They also landed stage 1 on the drone ship. From my front yard..


Quoting 41. Patrap:

SPACE X NAILS IT

WOW. 2nd return successful!!!


Thanks for the heads up and the link. First time I got to watch it live.
Quoting 43. earthisanocean:



thanks for that link patrap, had no idea that was happening today. was incredible to watch, we're such a cool species once and a while ;)


Well, like Dr.Masters and others the same age, we saw it all from Mercury,Gemini and Apollo to Shuttle to Commercial.

Im happy u got to see History being made live.

Seeing 39A being used again is a great feeling, as I had family who worked on the Saturn 5 S-1 first Stage Built here in NOLA.

I did a entry on it here 8 years ago.

Seeing the Rocket,up close.
By: Patrap , 10:39 AM CDT on June 29, 2009











The first tornado watch of the season has been issued in my town. The next county over is under a tornado warning. Welcome to Spring!
Quoting 48. gr8lakebreeze:

Brad Panovich%u200FVerified account @wxbrad 5m5 minutes ago
More
I-85 has collapsed near Atlanta from a massive fire. Live video http://www.11alive.com/news/massive-fire-burning-u nder-i-85-in-atlanta/426986746 %u2026



Wonder what exactly was being stored underneath the overpass that caused it to burn with such intensity. Wonder if it was material for railroad maintenance.
Quoting 52. Patrap:

WunderBlog's last Stand'


Great choice. Thanks.
Inspiration comes from FM sometimes still.

Thanx...,




Neolithic megalith from c. 2000 BC, Isle of Lewis, Hebrides, Scotland. Ask Grothar about the ceremonies conducted there.



Photograph taken of Lewis neolithic standing stones taken March 30, 2017 at dawn - obviously retouched but still cool.

Well, I can see that some bloggers here can't seem to oppose me and my beliefs without insult and many seem to agree with them.

I just hate the fact that us as a people are at the point where the only thing stopping us from destroying our planet is government regulation. Regulation isn't inherently bad, but there HAS to be some way that we can be the change without lawmakers interfering. Because if we rely on government, it'll be one step forward, two steps back, like what Trump is trying to do I guess. By the end of his term, we may be back at square one. Or worse. who knows. We won't get anywhere if we have to elect people to make the decisions for us that decide the fate of the world. It's a big issue and we all know it. It's something that we all have to tackle. Yeah I can't tell big factories where and where not to dump but I can surely do something myself to keep the earth clean.
Quoting 57. JrWeathermanFL:

Well, I can see that some bloggers here can't seem to oppose me and my beliefs without insult and many seem to agree with them.

I just hate the fact that us as a people are at the point where the only thing stopping us from destroying our planet is government regulation. Regulation isn't inherently bad, but there HAS to be some way that we can be the change without lawmakers interfering. Because if we rely on government, it'll be one step forward, two steps back, like what Trump is trying to do I guess. By the end of his term, we may be back at square one. Or worse. who knows. We won't get anywhere if we have to elect people to make the decisions for us that decide the fate of the world. It's a big issue and we all know it. It's something that we all have to tackle. Yeah I can't tell big factories where and where not to dump but I can surely do something myself to keep the earth clean.

Sorry, the only way catastrophe is avoided is through government action. No other realistic way to work it. Government is the only thing that can stop the multi-generational free lunch that the corporations have enjoyed at our and our ecosystem's expense.

I seem to remember that here in America the government is the People. Lemmee see.."of the People, by the People, for the People." Yeah, that's how it goes.
blog hole
Iz werking fine as comments are there ,,and new ones as well,so its yer browser or cache needs clearing.

Quoting 60. ChiThom:

blog hole


It seems there are a lot of blog holes lately.
Quoting 60. ChiThom:

blog hole


That was my fault. A certain picture presented too much of a temptation to show where deniers heads truly were. ;)
Meanwhile, the server over at wu is counting down like HAL in 2010 when Jupiter was shrinking.

Dr. Masters,

Will I dream?


Quoting 65. Xyrus2000:



That was my fault. A certain picture presented too much of a temptation to show where deniers heads truly were. ;)


I liked that picture. :(
Quoting 45. ChiThom:

The best is yet to come!




Quoting 54. Patrap:

Inspiration comes from FM sometimes still.

Thanx...,







Thought I recognized that Mug, XERB Mighty 1090 (insert wolf noise here)
Ex-cyclone Debbie: woman's body found as disaster zones declared in NSW
Five areas will receive special assistance in NSW as hundreds of thousands of Queensland homes remain without power
Guardian, Friday 31 March 2017 10.14 BST
Quoting 27. georgevandenberghe:


The "science advances one funeral at a time" quote has been attributed to Niels Bohr.


The "science advances one funeral at a time" quote is a paraphrased variant of a statement by Max Planck.

Looks like the "modify"-button has already stopped working. Bad for me because as a foreigner I have to use it often to edit and correct my silly mistakes :-(
Should prevent me from posting much in these very last and sad days of the demise of good old WU ...
At least the German weather outside is gorgeous, maybe too gorgeous for this early time of the year.
Have a nice morning and day, everyone!

Map with temps (Celsius) in central Europe (saved):
The quote butt is dead, too. Quoting Barbamz re 'too gorgeous...', Dutch the Bilt station registered highest average day temp for March yesterday and of course that record will be obliterated today.
The month is #2 in at least 311 years (after an oldie, 1991).

(meantime, both buttons live again)
Quoting 72. barbamz:



In Finland, we have traditional spring weather. Just when old snow is almost entirely gone, sun comes higher every day, and people get lured into a sunny mood... two areas of snowfall sneak into the country during night. Both areas missed me, however. Following image is radar composite from 5 a.m. (UTC+3)



Iltalehti on Facebook shares a picture, seemingly from Helsinki this morning (Wonderful, it is spring in Finland!)

teachers job will just get harder taking away the poor kids lunches. can you imagine dealing with hungry kids?
From Energydesk:

Why does the melting Arctic sea ice matter?

[...]

Signifying nothing

All this talk of a possible ice-free Arctic brings us to a column in The Times last year, written by well-known climate sceptic and coal mine owner Matt Ridley.

Ridley wrote:

“Some time in the next few decades, we may well see the Arctic Ocean without ice in August or September for at least a few weeks, just as it was in the time of our ancestors.

“The effect on human welfare, and on animal and plant life, will be small.

“For all the attention it gets, the reduction in Arctic ice is the most visible, but least harmful, effect of global warming.”

The scientists on the panel were irked by that ‘least harmful’ comment.

“These changes do not happen in isolation to the rest of the planet,” said Dr James Screen, senior lecturer at Exeter University.

“They certainly can, and very likely are affecting weather and climate thousands of miles to the south, including the UK and North America.”

[...]

The Trump factor

The Ridley line – that Arctic ice melt doesn’t really matter – highlights what’s become a particular challenge of our age: the politicisation of fact and science.

As the planet heats up, and the Arctic ice melts, newly elected US President Donald Trump is waging a war on the climate science community and its research.

This week Victoria Hermmann, managing director of the Arctic Institute, said that the Trump administration has embarked on a “slow and incessant march of deleting datasets, webpages and policies about the Arctic.”

How do you deal with this?

“What’s so frustrating – as scientists – is you think just by showing [people] the graph it’s pretty clear what’s happening,” said Stroeve, “but that’s not how the human brain seems to work.”

“People are going to just ignore any evidence that goes against what their belief system already is, and take evidence that supports it.”

The melting Arctic shouldn’t be up for debate, however, Screen said: “The changes are indisputable, they’re so enormous.

“There’s not a signal to noise issue here, there’s a very obvious trend. And it’s basically well understood.”

Shuckburgh, meanwhile, recalled a placard from a recent pro-science protest. It said:

“Ice doesn’t do politics, it just melts.”

Click here to read full article.

See also: Video: Two scientists, two questions, too little ice: Arctic melt explained (in less than two minutes)
Good Morning Folks: the Conus forecast for today and current look:



And the convective outlook for today and storm reports from yesterday; ramping down for this period as noted by Mr. Henson.............Pretty cool and stable air mass across the Southern tier and the Gulf..........We get a break from severe weather to the time being in tornado alley.


yesterday Reports Graphic
However, Monday might be a different story with a 3-day enhanced risk forecast; that cut-off low over Arizona at the moment might cause problems in a few days if really warm Gulf flow moves back into the Northern Gulf coast in advance of the front into tornado alley next week as noted by Mr. Henson above:




Excellent news from the Senate as to NOAA posted on Science Mag overnight. We talked about this last December when Senator Bill Nelson killed the original bill (discussed in this article) with some water wars amendment but they took that out and the Senate approved the Bill; some downsides as noted as well but a win for NOAA with bi-partisan support. Worth posting the whole article.
Hopefully, the anti-science/anti-government Representatives in the House will not hang the bill up and approve it for signature by the President. 

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/weat her-forecasting-bill-clears-senate-hurdle

Better late than never, the U.S. Senate approved a bill yesterday that aims to bolster the capacity of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to make seasonal weather predictions between 2 weeks and 2 years out.

“From long-term forecasting that can prevent costly agricultural losses to more actionable information about severe weather, this legislation will help save lives and reduce avoidable property loss,” Senator John Thune (R–SD), one of the bill’s primary sponsors, said after the vote, which passed by unanimous consent.

Congress last year killed a previous version of the bill over a controversial study of a contested river basin in the Southeast that the bill would have mandated.

That study was dropped in the revised bill, which now goes to the House of Representatives—where leaders have signaled their approval—for an expected vote next week. It will then go on to President Donald Trump for signing; observers predict the administration will support the bipartisan bill.

The bill contains a few new provisions. It requires NOAA to secure a fourth airplane to back up its three “Hurricane Hunters”: two turboprops and a Gulfstream jet the agency uses to monitor hurricanes. The turboprops fly through storms, and the Gulfstream monitors them from above. Last year, the jet was grounded because of corrosion from Hurricane Hermine, and NOAA scrambled to find a replacement: a loaner from the U.S. National Science Foundation.

The bill also mandates a study of where gaps may exist in NOAA’s weather radar network. Senator Richard Burr (R–NC), who has long advocated for a dedicated radar facility in Charlotte, sought the provision.

Besides these additions, the bill largely follows its predecessor. The first significant legislation to address weather in a generation, it calls for NOAA to improve its hurricane and tornado research. It directs the agency to put sensors on subsea telecommunication cables to improve tsunami warnings, and expand its efforts in uncovering prehistoric tsunamis. It also orders the agency to evaluate how well the public understands and responds to its cryptic system of “watch” and “warning” weather alerts.

The bill offers a sharp response to NOAA’s notoriously delayed and overbudget satellite missions, to the point of telling the agency which simulations it should run to judge the relative merits of sensors. It also requires NOAA to shift from relying exclusively on its own satellites and weather data and to look for commercial alternatives.

Hoping that Dr. Masters will clear up the comment below as to the Gulfstream jet grounding because of corrosion from Hurricane Hermine. My assumption has always been that the Gulfstream does upper air sampling, over and around the storm, to feed data into the models for a better track forecast as to ridges and steering currents and such.

A salt water environment takes a big toll on any plane, and particularly the hunters that fly into a hurricane, and that requires regular maintenance and washing down the planes but trying to figure out how one Hurricane (Hermine) caused so much corrosion that caused the grounding; did they have to make some runs into the storm or through very heavy rain and salt that got sucked into the smaller turbo fans?..........Probably the reason that prop planes are used to penetrate tropical storms and not turbo fan jets.......Just askin.
From South China Morning Post:

Like Trump, Vladimir Putin says climate change not man-made and warming began in the 1930s

Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Thursday said climate change was not caused by human activity, as the White House announced that President Donald Trump would decide by May on continued US participation in the landmark Paris Agreement limiting global carbon emissions.

One day after visiting the Franz Josef Land archipelago in the Arctic, Putin claimed that icebergs had been melting for decades and suggested that global warming was not mankind’s fault.

“The warming, it had already started by the 1930s,” Putin said in comments broadcast from an Arctic forum held in the northern Russian city of Arkhangelsk. “That’s when there were no such anthropological factors, such emissions, and the warming had already started.”

The Kremlin strongman added: “The issue is not stopping it... because that’s impossible, since it could be tied to some global cycles on Earth or even of planetary significance. The issue is to somehow adapt to it.”

[...]

The declaration came as the White House said Trump would make his pronouncement on the Paris Agreement before a meeting of G7 leaders in Sicily that is scheduled to begin May 26.

[...]

Putin had previously hailed global warming for exposing natural resources and transport routes which had long been too expensive to exploit.

He had also once speculated that warming by “two or three degrees” could be a good thing for Russians who would no longer need fur coats.

The latest declarations were a far cry from Putin’s speech at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris in November 2015.

“The quality of life of all people on the planet depends on solving the climate problem,” he had said, adding that Moscow had “exceeded” its obligations under the Kyoto Protocol.

“Russia’s efforts have slowed global warming by almost a year. We were at the same time able to nearly double our country’s GDP over the same period,” he said.

“We consider it crucial that the new climate agreement be based on the UN Framework of Climate Change and that it be legally binding.”

Russia is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the world, according to government data, and both scientists and emergencies officials have indicated that disasters such as deadly floods and wildfires are influenced by climate change.

Click here to read full article.


Don't blame me..I just toured Gonzo last May here at the 2016 HAT.

: P

Queensland cyclone: Two people dead after huge floods swamp northern NSW
March 31, 2017 11:43pm
... The NSW State Emergency Service performed almost 400 rescues and responded to about 2000 calls for help at the height of the flood emergency after up to 740mm of rain soaked the region. ...

740 mm = 29 inches!!


Accum. rain in Australia on March 31.


Accum. rain in Australia the last week.
Source.
The fact that Putin has suddenly reversed course on his stand in support of man-made Co2 climate change issues two years ago, to this recent announcement that glaciers have always been melting, smells rank...................Now that Tillerson is at the helm of the State Department, Putin is looking for Congressional approval, with a little help from his friends in the US, to get sanctions lifted so that Russia and Exon Mobile can go full tilt with Russian/Siberian Arctic Circle oil drilling.
I am only an amateur weather blogger but I hope that Congress gives General Flynn immunity to testify in the Senate Investigation so that he can "tell his story" as his attorney has indicated. "Yeah, we spoke to the Russians about them joining us in a mutual fight against Isis, getting lots of press and publicity on our new partnership against global terrorism, and then getting the sanctions lifted so they can drill for oil................................"
Quoting 81. weathermanwannabe:

Hoping that Dr. Masters will clear up the comment below as to the Gulfstream jet grounding because of corrosion from Hurricane Hermine. My assumption has always been that the Gulfstream does upper air sampling, over and around the storm, to feed data into the models for a better track forecast as to ridges and steering currents and such.

A salt water environment takes a big toll on any plane, and particularly the hunters that fly into a hurricane, and that requires regular maintenance and washing down the planes but trying to figure out how one Hurricane (Hermine) caused so much corrosion that caused the grounding; did they have to make some runs into the storm or through very heavy rain and salt that got sucked into the smaller turbo fans?..........Probably the reason that prop planes are used to penetrate tropical storms and not turbo fan jets.......Just askin.


The presentation from the recent Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference indicates the corrosion was found at the peak of the season, but no indication of the cause. It may just be a normal issue that was found around the time of Hermine.
Quoting 86. weathermanwannabe:

The fact that Putin has suddenly reversed course on his stand in support of man-made Co2 climate change issues two years ago, to this recent announcement that glaciers have always been melting, smells rank...................Now that Tillerson is at the helm of the State Department, Putin is looking for Congressional approval, with a little help from his friends in the US, to get sanctions lifted so that Russia and Exon Mobile can go full tilt with Russian/Siberian Arctic Circle oil drilling.

#86: Wow, this is really bad news!

Moreover:
Russia and the Nordics: Northern approaches
As long as the talk remains on Arctic issues, Russia and the Nordics can agree on almost anything
The Arctic Journal, March 30, 2017 - 4:00pm - By Martin Breum
Not since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 have we seen something like this: the foreign ministers of Norway, Denmark and Iceland speaking of peace and co-operation while visiting Russia. And Sweden’s foreign minister only missing because of illness.
Since Crimea and Russia’s involvement in the unrest in eastern Ukraine, the Nordic countries have been staunch supporters of sanctions against Russia.
These countries say they stand strongly behind the West's pressure on Russia. However, the foreign ministers clearly demonstrated just how keen they are to keep diplomatic channels wide open. They were given a convenient venue to do so on Wednesday, in Arkhangelsk, in northwestern Russia, during the opening day of Arctic: Territory of Dialogue, a major Russian conference on Arctic development.
The conference has attracted around 1,500 officials, mainly Russian, and business leaders to Lomonosov University. It is situated in Arkhangelsk on the White Sea, a southern inlet of the Barents Sea, located on the north-western coast of Russia. ...

More see link above.


Photo: Presidents Niinistö, Putin and Jóhannesson (from left) appearing at Arctic: Territory of Dialogue on Thursday (Credit: Alexander Ryumin/TASS Host Photo Agency)
i say i find it odd that the mods are allowing this trump stuff too be posted on here on a severe weather blog has that is the topic of the blog not climate change or trump so some poster are being way off topic on the blog topic of severe weather
This is going to goad the NAM haters, the replacement for the GFDL is based on the NAM core......





Full Presentation
Quoting 82. Xandra:



I predict China to be the next to adopt denial as official position. Given how tightly the government controls Internet there, the fact that they even allow denialists to be visible online, leads me to think that they plan to use those denialists in the future.
Quoting 93. elioe:



I predict China to be the next to adopt denial as official position. Given how tightly the government controls Internet there, the fact that they even allow denialists to be visible online, leads me to think that they plan to use those denialists in the future.

I have to subscribe to this realism fka 'paranoia'.
There is a global push by the suicidalists going on.
Lots of rain yesterday. Southwest highway is closed in both directions due to flooding.



Quoting 50. daddyjames:



Wonder what exactly was being stored underneath the overpass that caused it to burn with such intensity. Wonder if it was material for railroad maintenance.


7 things to know about the fiery I-85 bridge collapse
Wonder what was in those drums? Although, it appears from this picture they ignited due to a fire, and were not necessarily the cause of the fire. Hmmm, and some wonder why governmental rules and regulations are necessary.




Edit: Picture (if you cannot see it): http://pbs.twimg.com/media/C8M-UN2XcAIizJC.jpg
Quoting 90. barbamz:



More from the conference: Finland begins to chair the Arctic Council this May, and now there are talks about holding a Putin-Trump meeting in Finland in conjunction with the chairmanship.

And remarks from our president:

Niinistö pointed out that the effects of global climate change is taking place at the fastest rate in northern regions, saying that average temperature in the Arctic has risen twice as quickly as other regions.

"If we lose the Arctic region, we will lose the whole world," Niinistö said.
And speaking of Arctic warm anomalies for today, the big blotch of "Red" is over Russia/Siberia:


Forecast Image
Quoting 91. thetwilightzone:

i say i find it odd that the mods are allowing this trump stuff too be posted on here on a severe weather blog has that is the topic of the blog not climate change or trump so some poster are being way off topic on the blog topic of severe weather

Once again, I totally agree with you.
You can say whatever you want here as long as your on the same page as Masters.
If your on the other side your coments get deleted.
Just the world we live in now.
The Gulf of Mexico needs to cool off a bit...




Models are certainly liking Sunday for severe weather, could be quite troublesome.





Image taken this morning by a wu spy of the Discus bloggers at WUWT readying for Mondays assault here.

They look small but trust me,..dem lil hands in the chest area are fast on a I phone indeed.

Steel yerselves for Monday to come.

All hands on deck will be required.

"This has been a wu countdown to disqus update."

Now back to your regularly scheduled comments.

Many of us blog on here exactly because we are on the same page as Dr. Masters; it is our Constitutional Right (Freedom of Speech).
Quoting 103. weathermanwannabe:

Many of us blog on here exactly because we are on the same page as Dr. Masters; it is our Constitutional Right (Freedom of Speech).

Yes, and look what this blog has become and how many people have left that a lot of us relied on for the great information we got from them.

Quoting 104. blueyedbiker:


Yes, and look what this blog has become and how many people have left that a lot of us relied on for the great information we got from them.




That is what is so great about this country. Freedom.
Quoting 93. elioe:


I predict China to be the next to adopt denial as official position. Given how tightly the government controls Internet there, the fact that they even allow denialists to be visible online, leads me to think that they plan to use those denialists in the future.

I doubt it. The chinese government has more to win if they don't deny the reality.



Excerpt from your link:

China already generates four times as much clean power as does the United States. The party is also mindful that it has lots of work to do. Much of China’s environment is a disaster. Millions of Chinese are sick of choking on smog and drinking from foul-smelling rivers.

Moreover, Trump’s climate change denial is a weakness that Beijing knows it can exploit. State-run papers are already crowing that the US will “betray its words” on climate change while “China will unswervingly keep its promise.”

“China now sees itself as moving into a better position to win this race,” Liu says. “They want to emerge as a new force, a new leader, on climate action.”

With an incoming White House eager to abandon the race altogether, that lead position is more obtainable than ever.

The Communist Party’s small band of climate change skeptics may chatter in the shadows. But Beijing’s powerful elite would never allow a small fringe in their ranks to sabotage one of their prime goals: outshining the United States in the 21st century.
Quoting 101. Envoirment:

The Gulf of Mexico needs to cool off a bit...




Models are certainly liking Sunday for severe weather, could be quite troublesome.





Yeah, given the track record the past two springs in Houston , I have the sneaking suspicion this will be another one of those ridiculous rain storms that we've had. I've lived here almost 16 years now, came in with Allison and lived through Ike and several other tropical systems, but these random unnamed storm systems we've had over the past couple of years have produced rain on levels that are obscene.

I live within 500 feet of the boundary of two major watersheds (White Oak Bayou and Buffalo Bayou) about 60 feet in elevation, about as close to a "hill" as exists in Houston. At least 3 times over the past two years we have had street flooding on our street during these events. Street flooding, to the point of damaged cars and impassible intersections. This on a street where 50 feet away at an intersection I can see the road slope noticeably downward toward Buffalo Bayou over a mile away. The rain comes down so hard and so fast it's accumulating too quickly for the water to be removed locally despite being near the crest of a hill between two watersheds. Just unreal.
GFS showing the first big WWB.
Quoting 103. weathermanwannabe:

Many of us blog on here exactly because we are on the same page as Dr. Masters; it is our Constitutional Right (Freedom of Speech).


You have no idea what the first amendment is or says, do you.
110. OKsky
Quoting 109. nymore:



You have no idea what the first amendment is or says, do you.

I know it doesn't say anything about having to put up with BS... just that the government can't censor it. Do you think the first amendment has been violated somewhere? Or are you confused about what it says?

EDIT: "BS" as in bad science, of course.
Quoting 104. blueyedbiker:


Yes, and look what this blog has become and how many people have left that a lot of us relied on for the great information we got from them.




The blog has always strayed away from tropical weather discussions outside of the Atlantic hurricane season. Once we get into the season, we will hopefully be back to blob watching.
Quoting 104. blueyedbiker:


Yes, and look what this blog has become and how many people have left that a lot of us relied on for the great information we got from them.



It got much much better when bob came on and we got daily posts. Now it is complete garbage with fools fighting over what they have no control over. Fun while it lasted, but you know it is bad when even the trolls left
Quoting 113. BTRsquatter:


It got much much better when bob came on and we got daily posts. Now it is complete garbage with fools fighting over what they have no control over. Fun while it lasted, but you know it is bad when even the trolls left


You know, these arguments hold no water. You can view and read the blog without viewing the comments. You make the conscious choice to view the comments and then get all irate over them. Sounds as if you want to be angry about something. After all, it is your choice.
Getting much needed rain today and got some earlier in the week (Tuesday).Looks like we will have several chances of rain in the forecast this upcoming week.Getting mix signals from the pacific and the Gulf is a cauldron.
Quoting 113. BTRsquatter:


It got much much better when bob came on and we got daily posts. Now it is complete garbage with fools fighting over what they have no control over. Fun while it lasted, but you know it is bad when even the trolls left


Do you miss the trolls? It kinda sounds like you do.

I for one think that, when there is no newsworthy weather to blog about, blogging about other things is OK.
Quoting 116. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you miss the trolls? It kinda sounds like you do.

I kinda do. Sure, you can't make a meal of them, but they're good for sausage.
Quoting 100. blueyedbiker:


Just the world we live in now.


such a horrible world we live in, where a scientist doesn't allow any and all anti-science drivel to post on their own private blog. this is truly worse than the gulag.
When you can learn something from the trolls, it can be useful. But when they take-up too much time, I'm glad the hammer comes down. Time is the one thing that I don't have enough of.
(A preposition is something you should not end a sentence with.) :j
Quoting 110. OKsky:


I know it doesn't say anything about having to put up with BS... just that the government can't censor it. Do you think the first amendment has been violated somewhere? Or are you confused about what it says?

EDIT: "BS" as in bad science, of course.


Please enlighten us all on how the first amendment would apply to a private weather blog. Now i am going to make a sandwich.
Quoting 115. washingtonian115:

Getting much needed rain today and got some earlier in the week (Tuesday).Looks like we will have several chances of rain in the forecast this upcoming week.Getting mix signals from the pacific and the Gulf is a cauldron.


If troughing sets up in the East, warm humid glop from the Gulf will go.. elsewhere. But yes I'm wondering what the high SST there will do to our spring. So far spring is not on the 2012-2010-1977 track but it's just started. Early spring 1976, very warm here , turned into a much more normal season after late March. There was no analog to our polar blast this March in March 1976.
Quoting 121. nymore:



Please enlighten us all on how the first amendment would apply to a private weather blog. Now i am going to make a sandwich.


That was decided in the Citizen's United vs. FEC Supreme Court decision. Read the majority opinion, and you will see how the first amendment is extended to protect private or "corporate-funded" blogs.
Quoting 112. OviedoWatcher:



The blog has always strayed away from tropical weather discussions outside of the Atlantic hurricane season. Once we get into the season, we will hopefully be back to blob watching.


Tropical season starts AFTER April 3. Many watchers will have gone elsewhere.
Quoting 95. ChiThom:

Lots of rain yesterday. Southwest highway is closed in both directions due to flooding.






Your daylilies are almost as advanced as mine! Mine are about 10"
Quoting 121. nymore:



Please enlighten us all on how the first amendment would apply to a private weather blog. Now i am going to make a sandwich.


as so much allow conversation in a peaceable manner if said used to cause disruption insulting derogatory motives then it falls under the peaceable assemble clause which under certain circumstances that right can be suspended till which time a peaceable conversation discussion debate has returned

Amendment I [Religion, Speech, Press, Assembly, Petition (1791)]
Amendment II [Right to Bear Arms (1791)]
Amendment III [Quartering of Troops (1791)]
Amendment IV [Search and Seizure (1791)]
Amendment V [Grand Jury, Double Jeopardy, Self-Incrimination, Due Process (1791)]
Amendment VI [Criminal Prosecutions - Jury Trial, Right to Confront and to Counsel (1791)]
Amendment VII [Common Law Suits - Jury Trial (1791)]
Amendment VIII [Excess Bail or Fines, Cruel and Unusual Punishment (1791)]
Amendment IX [Non-Enumerated Rights (1791)]
Amendment X [Rights Reserved to States (1791)]

Amendment XI [Suits Against a State (1795)]
Amendment XII [Election of President and Vice-President (1804)]
Amendment XIII [Abolition of Slavery (1865)]
Amendment XIV [Privileges and Immunities, Due Process, Equal Protection, Apportionment of Representatives, Civil War Disqualification and Debt (1868)]
Amendment XV [Rights Not to Be Denied on Account of Race (1870)]

Amendment XVI [Income Tax (1913)]
Amendment XVII [Election of Senators (1913)
Amendment XVIII [Prohibition (1919)]
Amendment XIX [Women's Right to Vote (1920)
Amendment XX [Presidential Term and Succession (1933)]
Amendment XXI [Repeal of Prohibition (1933)]
Amendment XXII [Two Term Limit on President (1951)]
Amendment XXIII [Presidential Vote in D.C. (1961)]
Amendment XXIV [Poll Tax (1964)]
Amendment XXV [Presidential Succession (1967)]
Amendment XXVI [Right to Vote at Age 18 (1971)]
Amendment XXVII [Compensation of Members of Congress (1992)]



going to make a sandwich.
Quoting 125. georgevandenberghe:



Your daylilies are almost as advanced as mine! Mine are about 10"


You're a little ahead of us in spring weather.
Quoting 124. georgevandenberghe:



Tropical season starts AFTER April 3. Many watchers will have gone elsewhere.

not really
normally by end of April early may most rtn
that have taken a break from the season albeit
some have early since announcement of the blogs ending
and a new format being introduced

Once we get to hurricane season, and a storm is threatening the US, the Blog speed goes into warp drive and any unrelated comments, and storm-related ones too, will get lost in the dust; at that point, best thing to do is just to read Dr. Masters storm impact posts and forget the comments.................Thousands (if not one hundred thousand or more) come on here to read his entries during the season and not ours..............Just Sayin.
Quoting 109. nymore:



You have no idea what the first amendment is or says, do you.


I got an A in Con Law, and my Professor was from Harvard; I took a Media Law Course from one of the Staff Attorneys for 60 Minutes; and I was an Associate at a well known Media/First Amendment Law firm and our clients included Ted Turner (CNN) and Comcast..................I know a "little" about the First Amendment; the law firm was founded by Bill Frates of Watergate (of "No President is Above the Law") fame......................
Tweet from our national weatherservice DWD in Germany just confirmed that today has been officially our first summer day in 2017 as their station in southwestern Germany (at Metzingen) reached the required threshold of 25C = 77F at 4:30 p.m. (at my place downtown Mainz it has been even warmer, around 80F, but the thermometer in my roofgarden isn't exactly enlisted by DWD :-)


Quoting 121. nymore:



Please enlighten us all on how the first amendment would apply to a private weather blog. Now i am going to make a sandwich.


The first amendment does not apply to anything more than preventing the government censorship of political statements by its citizens or a fear of reprisal from the government for political statements. Calling the sitting president an ahole will not lead to the FBI knocking on your door and dragging you out onto the streets. The government cannot ban speech against the government or its elected officials. This does not give anyone the right to say anything they wish to say about anything they wish to discuss without a fear of reprisal from a non government entity. You also cannot make direct threats of harm against the government or a government official. You can throw someone out of your house if that person makes a political statement that you do not like and that person has no other choice but to leave. Political free speech only grants us protection from the government coming after us for a political statement being made.

As daddyjames noted, free speech has been extended to add the buying of elections to also being just political free speech. It is no longer just one person, one vote. It has turned into one dollar more can buy the legislation you want and without any individual equality left in the system.
Quoting 117. ChiThom:

I for one think that, when there is no newsworthy weather to blog about, blogging about other things is OK.
Their is always news worthy weather to talk about, but not always in the USA. As for Climate Change, why argue over something we have no control, or very little control over, nothing is ever accomplished.
Meanwhile, volume of the Arctic Sea Ice could be considerably reduced from what it should be, as a good portion of the thicker MYI is on the move to where it will be melted.

From the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:



Quoting 133. NativeSun:

Their is always news worthy weather to talk about, but not always in the USA. As for Climate Change, why argue over something we have no control, or very little control over, nothing is ever accomplished.


If "pants on fire" were contributing to Global Climate Change, we'd all be fritos pescaditios already.
We do have control over it. That is why it is happening.
seems as if we lost about 20 posts - sigh. Perhaps DISQUS will be better ;)
Quoting 121. nymore:



Please enlighten us all on how the first amendment would apply to a private weather blog. Now i am going to make a sandwich.


REPOST

Consider yourself enlightened.

SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES
CITIZENS UNITED, APPELLANT v. FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION

on appeal from the united states district court for the district of columbia

[January 21, 2010]
Justice Kennedy delivered the opinion of the Court.

Quote:
Rapid changes in technology - and the creative dynamic inherent in the concept of free expression - counsel against upholding a law that restricts political speech in certain media or by certain speakers. See Part II, supra . Today, 30-second television ads may be the most effective way to convey a political message. See McConnell, supra, at 261 (opinion of Scalia , J.). Soon, however, it may be that Internet sources, such as blogs and social networking Web sites, will provide citizens with significant information about political candidates and issues. Yet, 441b would seem to ban a blog post expressly advocating the election or defeat of a candidate if that blog were created with corporate funds. See 2 U. S. C. 441b(a); MCFL, supra, at 249. The First Amendment does not permit Congress to make these categorical distinctions based on the corporate identity of the speaker and the content of the political speech.
Rescued from the blog hole:

NCEP GFS 0.5deg past 30 days mean 2m air temperature anomalies (climatology for 1981-2010 reference period) - source karstenhaustein.com:

REPOST (condensed version).

From the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:

Possible tipping point in regards to global sea ice? Definitely a good question.






Edit: The second graph is a forecast for what 2017 may be like.
Quoting 106. Xandra:
I doubt it. The chinese government has more to win if they don't deny the reality.

Excerpt from your link:

China already generates four times as much clean power as does the United States. The party is also mindful that it has lots of work to do. Much of China’s environment is a disaster. Millions of Chinese are sick of choking on smog and drinking from foul-smelling rivers.

Moreover, Trump’s climate change denial is a weakness that Beijing knows it can exploit. State-run papers are already crowing that the US will “betray its words” on climate change while “China will unswervingly keep its promise.”

“China now sees itself as moving into a better position to win this race,” Liu says. “They want to emerge as a new force, a new leader, on climate action.”

With an incoming White House eager to abandon the race altogether, that lead position is more obtainable than ever.

The Communist Party’s small band of climate change skeptics may chatter in the shadows. But Beijing’s powerful elite would never allow a small fringe in their ranks to sabotage one of their prime goals: outshining the United States in the 21st century.
The US used to bludgeon China over human rights. Now China sees that the shoe is on the other foot.
Between the Arctic sea ice loss and heat wave issues, Dr. Jeannie Francis was/is probably correct; It's all about Polar Jet amplification due to Arctic melt issues and the loss of certain temperature gradients to the North (Arctic) and South (mid-latitudes) of the jet due to global warming:


Image result for point of know return album cover

Can't post the image but Accuweather has a nice chart on the relationship between the jet and current heat wave issues in India at this link:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- news/india-heat-wave-turns-deadly-brief-relief-may -come-to-new-delhi-next-week/70001264



Quoting 164. weathermanwannabe:

Can't post the image but Accuweather has a nice chart on the relationship between the jet and current heat wave issues in India at this link:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather- news/india-heat-wave-turns-deadly-brief-relief-may -come-to-new-delhi-next-week/70001264








Everyone have a safe weather weekend and see Yall next week "on the other side" of the Disqus. We shall see what unfolds on Monday and Tuesday in terms of potential severe weather next week:



 
In a widely-covered release, the National Snow & Data Center (NSIDC) said the Arctic sea ice on March 7 was “the lowest maximum in the 38-year satellite record.

And this year’s event was record-breaking.

So now's the question: Will Arctic sea ice shrink to new record low this summer?

Just popping in before I lose power. A heavy, wet snow is falling and is expected to intensify.

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 4 PM EDT
Saturday...

* hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches.

* Timing... the snow will increase in intensity this evening
evening and overnight before ending during the mid afternoon
hours Saturday.

* Impacts... heavy wet snow will cause slick roadways. The weight
of the snow on trees may snap small limbs and lead to power
outages.
Quoting 167. Xandra:

Will Arctic sea ice shrink to new record low this summer?


My wild guess is no. Extent low of 3.56 million sq. km per JAXA
A strong second place.
Bye Bye GFDL text and Computer Hurricane Guidance

The GFDL Hurricane Model Message (CHGQLM) product is proposed to
be discontinued because the GFDL Hurricane Model is proposed to
be discontinued before the start of the 2017 hurricane season.
Please see Public Information Statement 17-07 for details:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns17-07g fdl.htm

The Beta Advection (BAM) and Limited Barotropic (LBAR) tropical
cyclone track models included in the latter two Tropical Cyclone
Guidance Message products will be discontinued before the start
of the 2017 hurricane season. The BAM models are not being
transitioned to the new WCOSS Cray supercomputer and the LBAR
model is obsolete. These changes eliminate all of the track
model guidance included in the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message
products, leaving only the Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensity model output in the Tropical
Cyclone Guidance Message products if they continued to be
issued.
Quoting 167. Xandra:

In a widely-covered release, the National Snow & Data Center (NSIDC) said the Arctic sea ice on March 7 was “the lowest maximum in the 38-year satellite record.

And this year’s event was record-breaking.

So now's the question: Will Arctic sea ice shrink to new record low this summer?




Definitely going to give 2012 a run for its money for record lows in both extent and volume, IMHO. The following year we may see a bit more of a rebound.
Quoting 170. nrtiwlnvragn:

Bye Bye GFDL text and Computer Hurricane Guidance

The GFDL Hurricane Model Message (CHGQLM) product is proposed to
be discontinued because the GFDL Hurricane Model is proposed to
be discontinued before the start of the 2017 hurricane season.
Please see Public Information Statement 17-07 for details:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns17-07g fdl.htm

The Beta Advection (BAM) and Limited Barotropic (LBAR) tropical
cyclone track models included in the latter two Tropical Cyclone
Guidance Message products will be discontinued before the start
of the 2017 hurricane season. The BAM models are not being
transitioned to the new WCOSS Cray supercomputer and the LBAR
model is obsolete. These changes eliminate all of the track
model guidance included in the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Message
products, leaving only the Statistical Hurricane Intensity
Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) intensity model output in the Tropical
Cyclone Guidance Message products if they continued to be
issued.


HMON (sounds so Caribbean/Jamaican) hopefully performs well.
Tornado Warning
VAC550-810-312300-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0006.170331T2213Z-170331T2300Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
613 PM EDT FRI MAR 31 2017

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
The northeastern City of Chesapeake in southeastern Virginia...
The central City of Virginia Beach in southeastern Virginia...

* Until 700 PM EDT

* At 613 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Great Bridge, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Kempsville around 620 PM EDT.
Princess Anne around 630 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Rudee
Heights, Mount Pleasant, Princess Anne Plaza, Sigma, Sandbridge
Beach, Oceana NAS, Macons Corner, Pungo, Greenbrier and Oceana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Please send your reports of hail and or wind damage...including
trees or large limbs downed...by calling NOAA`S National Weather
Service in Wakefield at
...7 5 7...8 9 9...2 4 1 5.
&&

LAT...LON 3668 7595 3668 7593 3672 7594 3672 7597
3670 7597 3670 7595 3668 7597 3669 7621
3680 7626 3688 7607 3687 7607 3687 7605
3689 7606 3691 7599 3667 7591 3667 7592
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 257DEG 28KT 3675 7621

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN

$$

MRD

173. VAbeachhurricanes:



You have a couple of warnings issued in your neck of the woods.

Quoting 174. daddyjames:



You have a couple of warnings issued in your neck of the woods.




Yep been a surprisingly active afternoon
Old English word of the day: on-fæðmness - an embrace, a hug. Pronounced "on-FATHM-ness". It's international hug a wunderblogger day. I just declared it so. And so it is.

Scene from the Life of David in the Winchester Bible, c. 1160 - 1180 AD.

Quoting 168. wartsttocs:

Just popping in before I lose power. A heavy, wet snow is falling and is expected to intensify.

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 4 PM EDT
Saturday...

* hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches.

* Timing... the snow will increase in intensity this evening
evening and overnight before ending during the mid afternoon
hours Saturday.

* Impacts... heavy wet snow will cause slick roadways. The weight
of the snow on trees may snap small limbs and lead to power
outages.

Where are you? I have a friend who lives in Woost-AH, Massachusetts.
In the new blogging system will the moderators be able to remove inappropriate comments and issue bans? I shudder to think of what the Breitbart trolls will do. There's already been some mention there of wunderground's upcoming entry into the DISQUS system and becoming accessible to them.
Quoting 177. BaltimoreBrian:

Where are you? I have a friend who lives in Woost-AH, Massachusetts.


South-Central New Hampshire
It is really starting to accumulate now. Temp at the house is 31F
My friend on the west side of Worcester, elevation near 900' just told me they had about an inch of snow, and now have freezing rain, 30°F.
I like this headline:

Scientists understood the climate 150 years ago better than the EPA head today

Link

I have a challenge to our Floridian climate conspiracy theorists.
How does the work of Fourier, Tyndall, and Arrhenius from the 1800s fit in to your very little "government funding" global warming conspiracy?
I dare you to address this one.

Just stepped outside and it is not as bad as it looked from the window, only about 2-3 inches so far. Almost every car I saw was partially losing traction going uphill though, I could hear the engines and the tires spinning
Just got a Special Statement:

720 PM EDT Fri Mar 31 2017

... Snowfall increasing across southern New Hampshire...

Light to moderate snowfall continues across southern New
Hampshire, and will increase in intensity over the next several
hours. With a slush built up on the roads, the loss of daylight
and temperatures continuing to fall will allow snow to rapidly
begin to accumulate on highways and interstates. The next few
hours will see conditions quickly deteriorate. Roads will become
slippery and travel is not advised. In addition, heavy snow may
drop visibility to one quarter mile or less at times.

Some sleet or freezing rain may mix in with the snow near the
Massachusetts border, but is expected to change back to snow later
this evening.


Legro

Quoting 178. BaltimoreBrian:

In the new blogging system will the moderators be able to remove inappropriate comments and issue bans? I shudder to think of what the Breitbart trolls will do. There's already been some mention there of wunderground's upcoming entry into the DISQUS system and becoming accessible to them.


From what I have seen of the mods playing around, yes.
Quoting 184. nrtiwlnvragn:



From what I have seen of the mods playing around, yes.
Fun times ahead, how do you join disgust?
EPA scientific integrity office reviewing Pruitt's comments on carbon

The EPA website says its scientific integrity policy requires EPA officials and staff to ensure the agency's work respects the findings of the broader scientific community.

Irony?

Near term Climate catastrophe predicted by leading scientists. See why is is happening, and likely near-term events:

Near term climate catastrophe Jan2017
Dear Forum:

I know it's too early to look at specifics for Sunday's enhanced risk area for SE Texas, but....

1. Should Houstonians prepare for this weather system like they would a tropical storm or hurricane?

2. Will ALL storms be severe? Or will some areasjust see rain?

3. WillALL of Houston and Galvestonbe without power before its over?

Please get back to me as soon as you can!
New EPA documents reveal even deeper proposed cuts to staff and programs
Washington Post, by Juliet Eilperin, Chris Mooney and Steven Mufson March 31 at 7:42 PM
The Environmental Protection Agency has issued a new more detailed plan for laying off 25 percent of its employees and scrapping more than 50 programs including pesticide safety, water runoff control, and environmental cooperation with Mexico and Canada under the North American Free Trade Agreement.
At a time when the agency is considering a controversial rollback in fuel efficiency standards adopted under President Obama, the plan would cut by more than half the number of people in EPA's division for testing the accuracy of fuel efficiency claims by automakers.ers.
It would transfer funding for the program to fees paid by the automakers themselves.
The spending plan, obtained by The Washington Post, offers the most detailed vision to date of how the 31 percent budget cut to the EPA ordered up by President Trump's Office of Management and Budget would diminish the agency.
The March 21 plan calls for even deeper reductions in staffing than earlier drafts. It maintains funding given to states to administer waste treatment and drinking water. But as a result, the budget for the rest of EPA is slashed 43 percent. ...
Because of the sweeping cuts to scientific programs, the administrator's own Science Advisory Board budget would be cut 84 percent. As the document explains, it would not need much money due to "an anticipated lower number of peer reviews."
Reductions in research funds will curtail programs on climate change, water quality, and chemical safety, and "safe and sustainable water resources," the document said. ...

More see link above.

Lot of posts from #134 following were eaten by WU :-( One of it was a link to this scary report about Putin:
Climate change offers chance of major economic boost in Arctic for Russia, says Putin
By The Siberian Times reporter, 31 March 2017
Quoting 166. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone have a safe weather weekend and see Yall next week "on the other side" of the Disqus. We shall see what unfolds on Monday and Tuesday in terms of potential severe weather next week:




Quoting 166. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone have a safe weather weekend and see Yall next week "on the other side" of the Disqus. We shall see what unfolds on Monday and Tuesday in terms of potential severe weather next week:











1.Should Houstonians prepare for this weather system like they would a tropical storm or hurricane?

2.Will ALL storms be severe? Or will some areas%uFFFDjust see rain?

3.%uFFFD Will%uFFFDALL of Houston and Galveston%uFFFDbe without power before its over?

Please get back to me as soon as you can!
Record temps for March were broken today in some places of the Balcans:
Dalmatia reaches hottest March temperatures since records began
Croatia has bounced into spring with record-shattering temperatures in Dalmatia, with Dubrovnik, Split and Hvar recording new highs for the month of March, according to Croatia Week. ...


Click to enlarge.

Is it socially acceptable to challenge climate denial?
Adam Corner, The Guardian, Friday 31 March 2017 11.46 BST
A new study found people were less likely to want to become friends with those who confronted climate sceptics. How can we overcome these attitudes? ...

Good night with this from Germany.
194. beell
Quoting 192. pureet1948:








1.Should Houstonians prepare for this weather system like they would a tropical storm or hurricane?

2.Will ALL storms be severe? Or will some areas%uFFFDjust see rain?

3.%uFFFD Will%uFFFDALL of Houston and Galveston%uFFFDbe without power before its over?

Please get back to me as soon as you can!


Prepare pureet. You may finally have something to worry about on Sunday-perhaps into the overnight.
Quoting 194. beell:



Prepare pureet. You may finally have something to worry about on Sunday-perhaps into the overnight.



Seriously? This is the first storm system since the April 2016 event that could put me in the dark for 12 hours?!
Quoting 178. BaltimoreBrian:

In the new blogging system will the moderators be able to remove inappropriate comments and issue bans? I shudder to think of what the Breitbart trolls will do. There's already been some mention there of wunderground's upcoming entry into the DISQUS system and becoming accessible to them.
I am planning on being very aggressive towards any type of disruptions and if anyone thinks they will have full trolling control over the WU well they be in for a surprise a very big surprise

Peter Gleick‏Verified account @PeterGleick Follow 

A federal twitter account, run by @HouseScience, is personally attacking a #climate scientist and using right-wing propaganda to do it.

Sci,Space,&Tech CmteVerified account @HouseScienceChair @LamarSmithTX21: “Dr. Mann’s hypocrisy was on full public display” @ Wednesday’s hearing. READ: http://bit.ly/2ohdf3A 
199. beell
Quoting 195. pureet1948:




Seriously? This is the first storm system since the April 2016 event that could put me in the dark for 12 hours?!


It does trend towards dark in the evening. Currently only about 11.5 hrs.
Quoting 199. beell:



It does trend towards dark in the evening. Currently only about 11.5 hrs.


Actually, I'm asking about the damage it may do. Will power be out areawide? Will Houston see hurricane-like damage?
Quoting 197. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am planning on being very aggressive towards any type of disruptions and if anyone thinks they will have full trolling control over the WU well they be in for a surprise a very big surprise
I'm glad to hear that keeper!
An absolutely amazing collection of materials related to a solar eclipse seen in London April 22, 1715. Make sure to expand these.





Quoting 100. blueyedbiker:


Once again, I totally agree with you.
You can say whatever you want here as long as your on the same page as Masters.
If your on the other side your coments get deleted.
Just the world we live in now.


No, if you can support you arguments with facts and evidence your comments remain. If there full of willful ignorance, insults, and plain stupidity then they get deleted.
Quoting 201. pureet1948:



Actually, I'm asking about the damage it may do. Will power be out areawide? Will Houston see hurricane-like damage?
You live there and you know the infrastructure as well as anyone can. I suggest you go buy half a dozen 12v compact fluorescent lights and inline switches, and enough zip cord to reach wherever you need light from the batteries, which should probably be kept in the garage, and a couple of 12V deepcycle batteries from Costco, and a battery charger. Hook all that together with the batteries in parallel to the charger, and the lights in parallel with each other, with inline switches on zip cord for each light, charge the batteries, and top them up once a week. When, and IF, the power goes off, you can switch on any of the lights you need and keep going. It won't be the Power Company but it will get you through.
Quoting 192. pureet1948:








1.Should Houstonians prepare for this weather system like they would a tropical storm or hurricane?

2.Will ALL storms be severe? Or will some areas%uFFFDjust see rain?

3.%uFFFD Will%uFFFDALL of Houston and Galveston%uFFFDbe without power before its over?

Please get back to me as soon as you can!

These questions can't be answered right now, as forecasting exactaly When and where the worst of storms will develop is near impossible even the day before the event. Huston does have a significant, although not particularly extreme risk of experiencing severe storms that could cause power outages. The best advice I can give you at this time is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Have an emergency supply kit handy in case things take a turn for the worst, and if nothing happens at least you'll be prepared for next time.
Quoting 206. MrTornadochase:


These questions can't be answered right now, as forecasting exactaly When and where the worst of storms will develop is near impossible even the day before the event. Huston does have a significant, although not particularly extreme risk of experiencing severe storms that could cause power outages. The best advice I can give you at this time is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Have an emergency supply kit handy in case things take a turn for the worst, and if nothing happens at least you'll be prepared for next time.



Then this is not a tropical storm or hurricane-like situation? The important thing to me is that not ALL of the thunderstorms/showers will pack 75-mph winds and the like. And not everybody loses power.
Quoting 205. CaneFreeCR:

You live there and you know the infrastructure as well as anyone can. I suggest you go buy half a dozen 12v compact fluorescent lights and inline switches, and enough zip cord to reach wherever you need light from the batteries, which should probably be kept in the garage, and a couple of 12V deepcycle batteries from Costco, and a battery charger. Hook all that together with the batteries in parallel to the charger, and the lights in parallel with each other, with inline switches on zip cord for each light, charge the batteries, and top them up once a week. When, and IF, the power goes off, you can switch on any of the lights you need and keep going. It won't be the Power Company but it will get you through.



Well, I don't know the infrastructure, but I do know how slow CenterPoint is in fixing it. HOw many days will it last?
One of the first photographs of lightning in a thunderstorm, by Charles Moussette, 1886

time for a tune


The Arctic Is Warm Again Because Of Course It Is
Climate Central - March 30, 2017.

(see also #159)
Completely off-topic here but a lot of fun, a medieval Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, in comments #1398-1399 of my blog.
Quoting 198. no1der: snippy


Glad we're able to direct our resources to helping the poor and jobless.

The past month, weather has been just what its supposed to be: March-like. I get the feeling its the normalcy before insanity.
If I can manage to catch a ride with any of my friends, I'ma try going chasing on Sunday. :)
Quoting 197. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am planning on being very aggressive towards any type of disruptions and if anyone thinks they will have full trolling control over the WU well they be in for a surprise a very big surprise





my hero you get a gold stare make that 2,000 of them make a wish
Quoting 209. BaltimoreBrian:

One of the first photographs of lightning in a thunderstorm, by Charles Moussette, 1886




absolute brilliance. in real life, and photographs. my version, 131 years later. AND my name is charles :P

Quoting 201. pureet1948:
br>
Actually, I'm asking about the damage it may do. Will power be out areawide? Will Houston see hurricane-like damage?
Bless his heart...

Guys, help!
Please see the latest model run of the Texas Tech weather forecast model. Link Note areas of serious updraft helicity. Where is Houston in relation to all of that? Is the risk of updraft rotation greater to the north of Houston? If this verifies, is this good news for Houston but bad news for people north of I-10?
Quoting 217. aquak9:

Bless his heart...


Well, we might as well be waiting on a hurricane down here, the way our local mets keep talking about this thing. I had my lights blink off for a minute on Wed. I was lucky. Doubt I'll be lucky on Sunday. What do you think?





Yeah. Come to Houston on Sunday.


Oh, and what do you guys make of this? Does this look like a tropical storm or WHAT?



NAM 32km seems to keep the worst of it to the North of Houston




Oh, this is what I was talking about in an earlier post.



Looks bad. Where is Houston in relation to that?
Quoting 195. pureet1948:




Seriously? This is the first storm system since the April 2016 event that could put me in the dark for 12 hours?!


Yes, I think it's called night!
Quoting 199. beell:



It does trend towards dark in the evening. Currently only about 11.5 hrs.


Beat me to it!
Quoting 203. BaltimoreBrian:

An absolutely amazing collection of materials related to a solar eclipse seen in London April 22, 1715. Make sure to expand these.







The beauty, tender glow extinguished
The sky dull from a breeze
Ghostly the dawn without its red
Uncanny, estranged to our nature
The light like lead

Ripped in the dark
A tiny sichle
As small as cut by a surgical knife

The suns last spark melts away
Not unlike a dying wick
Now stands disc on disc
And crushes my heart

All I really, really, really want to see
Is a total eclipse of the sun

'ah' says everyone
Just the birds are silent
With surprise

All I really, really, really want to see
Is a total eclipse of the sun
Quoting 182. wartsttocs:

Just stepped outside and it is not as bad as it looked from the window, only about 2-3 inches so far. Almost every car I saw was partially losing traction going uphill though, I could hear the engines and the tires spinning



I have about 4 inches now, flakes are getting chunky., I find it interesting how NPR reports less accumulation to down play the snow. Oddly enough, the past 4 years they been suggesting the ski areas will all be out of business, Tis Apr 1st and most except extreme southern New England are going strong.


Bretton Woods
New Hampshire, USA
Last Updated: 3/31
24 HR: 0"
72 HR: 0" 22" - 46"
Full Report 7/10 60/97
Mount Southington Ski Area
Connecticut, USA
Last Updated: 3/29
24 HR: 0"
72 HR: 0" 22" - 44"
Full Report 0/7 0/14
Sunday River
Maine, USA
Last Updated: 3/31
24 HR: 0"
72 HR: 0" 28" - 42"
Full Report 10/15 135/135
Hunter Mountain
New York, USA
Last Updated: 3/31
24 HR: 0"
72 HR: 0" 20" - 40"
Full Report 5/11 38/58
Jiminy Peak
Massachusetts, USA
Last Updated: 3/31
24 HR: 0"
72 HR: 0" 15" - 40"
Full Report 6/9 35/45

GREAT! By hour 46 those tornados will be sprouting up like mushrooms everywhere in East Tx!

Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



as so much allow conversation in a peaceable manner if said used to cause disruption insulting derogatory motives then it falls under the peaceable assemble clause which under certain circumstances that right can be suspended till which time a peaceable conversation discussion debate has returned

Amendment I [Religion, Speech, Press, Assembly, Petition (1791)]

Well said, however, what seems to happen here commonly, and more so recently, is more akin to the Salem witch trials. Any mention of conflicting data, or questioning of the science dogma, devolves into "burn them at the stake" retorts which escalates the tension. You all need to mind this don't happen.

How social media bubbles are driving political anger - BetaNews
https://betanews.com/2016/11/10/social-media-bubb les-politics/
Nov 10, 2016 - The same thing happened in the UK back in June when many ... interact only with people 'like us' to the exclusion of opposing views. ... we're getting countries where one half just doesn't know anything at all about the other".


Good luck on discus!
229. vis0
carl sagan on the ole Johnny carson show on pix networks (Antenna TV) nyc ch 11.2 on bandwidth 201MHz Frequency 6 MHz...three stooges marathon tomorrow
Quoting 219. pureet1948:



Well, we might as well be waiting on a hurricane down here, the way our local mets keep talking about this thing. I had my lights blink off for a minute on Wed. I was lucky. Doubt I'll be lucky on Sunday. What do you think?


Looking bad Pureet, real bad. Cape and wind fields will be quite conducive with the Gulf inflow to possibly have a sizable outbreak. Discreet cells and clockwise curved low-level hodographs are just not a good combination. Hail to baseball and larger, likely outbreak of tornadoes, and possibly a few strong ones. Houston is under the gun and you may want to be very vigilant. Like the upper Midwest this area of Texas if prone to some busts from the SPC so it's not written in stone. But I might park my car in the garage or at a parking garage all the same. Stay safe and just play it cool like you always do in these situations.
Tumbleweed traffic jam hits California
BBC video, 31 March 2017 Last updated at 20:13 BST
A tumbleweed traffic jam has brought chaos to roads in southern California.
With the help of some intrepid drivers and the odd gust, state highway patrol managed to clear routes in the Inland Empire region. Motorists - and the rolling balls of dead plant matter - were soon able to continue their journeys on Thursday.
Peru seeks more international aid to cope with extreme floods
by Reuters, Saturday, 1 April 2017 03:44 GMT
Peru needs more international aid to help hundreds of thousands of people cope with continuing floods and mudslides that have killed more than 100 people and torn apart much of the country's infrastructure, the transportation minister said Friday. ...
Scientists in Peru now expect the localized version of El Nino that appeared suddenly off of Peru's coast this year to stretch into May, though April rains should not be as intense as the downpours still battering the northern coast. ...

Details see link above.

Ex-Cyclone Debbie: four feared missing in Queensland, two dead in NSW
Logan river matches levels last seen 43 years ago, but falls short of a predicted 10.5-metre peak
Australian Associated Press/Guardian, Saturday 1 April 2017 02.52 BST
hey fools. anyone have a guess how bad our thunderstorm season in central florida will be this yr?
April fool, there is nothing more to joke about.
Lucked out and didn't lose power overnight. 11 inches of very heavy, wet, cement-like snow so far and a light snow is still falling at 33F. Local news says storm totals are wildly varied around the state and it looks like I am on the high side again.
Quoting 234. islander101010:

hey fools. anyone have a guess how bad our thunderstorm season in central florida will be this yr?


Non-stop El-Nino causing record rain every two days. Active pattern with tornadoes devastating Orlando every week.
With all that snow on the ground and this in the forecast I better make sure my sump pump is working properly.
Quoting 238. wartsttocs:



Non-stop El-Nino causing record rain every two days. Active pattern with tornadoes devastating Orlando every week.


Don't forget the periodic fire and brimstone.
Quoting 240. isothunder67:


Don't forget the periodic fire and brimstone.

Volcanoes.

Don't forget the volcanoes.
لا تخاف كلمات أخرى من نظرة نصها. الحياة كنت
بريق يمكن أن واحد لانقاذ لكم يوم واحد. سلام

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Still snowing in southern nh 28 hrs after start of storm.
Still snowing in southern nh, 30 hours, since start. Warming eeh?
Quoting 230. DeepSeaRising:



Looking bad Pureet, real bad. Cape and wind fields will be quite conducive with the Gulf inflow to possibly have a sizable outbreak. Discreet cells and clockwise curved low-level hodographs are just not a good combination. Hail to baseball and larger, likely outbreak of tornadoes, and possibly a few strong ones. Houston is under the gun and you may want to be very vigilant. Like the upper Midwest this area of Texas if prone to some busts from the SPC so it's not written in stone. But I might park my car in the garage or at a parking garage all the same. Stay safe and just play it cool like you always do in these situations.



How many days will it be before I get my power back on, then. This could be the worst weather we've seen since Hurricane Ike!