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Debbie’s Silver Lining: Cooler Waters and Less Coral Reef Damage

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:46 PM GMT on March 28, 2017

Tropical Cyclone Debbie roared into northern Queensland, Australia, early Tuesday local time, hurling giant waves, fierce winds, and a major storm surge into the sparsely populated coast. Landfall occurred near Airlie Beach at about 12:40 pm local time Tuesday. Debbie’s top sustained winds at landfall, averaged over 1 minute (as is standard practice for Atlantic hurricanes), were estimated at 105 knots (120 mph), near the midpoint of the Category 3 range on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Debbie ranked as a Category 4 on Australia’s tropical cyclone rating scale, which uses different thresholds and 10-minute wind averaging.

An anemometer located near the airport on rugged Hamilton Island, near the south eyewall of Debbie as the cyclone approached the coast, recorded peak sustained winds of 99 knots (114 mph) gusting to 142 knots (163 mph) at 10:30 am Tuesday local time. The anemometer is at an elevation of 59.4 meters (195 feet). One would expect slightly higher gusts at this height than at sea level, as the effects of surface friction would be less and the turbulence produced by the coastal topography could allow for stronger winds to mix down from aloft.

As of midday Tuesday EST, only one serious injury had been reported from Debbie, although the toll could rise as relief crews enter the hardest-hit areas on Wednesday local time. Power was knocked out to some 40,000 homes and business, noted weather.com’s Sean Breslin. The cyclone's approach marked the largest pre-deployment ever carried out by the Australian Defense Force ahead of a natural disaster, said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Debbie making landfall over Queensland, Australia, as seen by the MODIS instrument at 0342 UTC Tuesday, March 28, 2017 (1:45 pm Tuesday local time). Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Storm clouds gather in the town of Ayr in far north Queensland as Cyclone Debbie approaches on March 27, 2017. Image credit: Peter Parks//AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 3. Winds at the airport on Hamilton Island, Queensland, AU, peaked at 142 knots (163 mph) at 10:30 am local time on March 28, 2017, as Tropical Cyclone Debbie approached just to the north. The site experienced sustained winds exceeding hurricane force (65 knots) from 1:00 am to 2:00 pm Tuesday, a span of 13 hours. The anemometer at Hamilton Island is located at a height of 195 feet, which allowed for slightly stronger winds than at sea level. Image credit: Courtesy Michael Theusner.

Debbie’s prolonged storm surge
Debbie’s slow forward motion in the hours prior to landfall allowed surge to pile up from southeast winds pushing water into a concave portion of the coastline about 20-30 miles south of the landfall location. According to storm surge expert Hal Needham, witnesses reported water about one meter (3.3 feet) above ground level In the area near Midge Point. At Laguna Quays, the storm surge was 2.75 meters (9 feet). The surge’s effects were exacerbated by the new moon and by Debbie’s slow forward motion, which allowed at least one meter of storm surge to persist through a full astronomical cycle (12 hours), including a high tide.

Needham reports that the surge from Debbie was the 14th highest on the Queensland coast since 1880, and the highest since Tropical Cyclone Yasi (2011). On top of the storm surge, mammoth waves—again boosted by Debbie’s slow motion—battered the coast. A buoy located about a mile offshore from Hay Point recorded waves exceeding 10 meters (33 feet), topping the previous record at that location of 7 meters in data going back to 1993.


Figure 4. Significant wave height and maximum wave height on March 27-29, 2017, at the Hay Point buoy, located about a mile offshore from Hay Point and about 8 miles southeast of Mackay, Queensland. Image credit: Queensland Government.

Debbie’s heavy rain to swipe New Zealand
Even as it decays, the circulation of Debbie will continue to dump very heavy rain across parts of Queensland, with the help of precipitable water (moisture in a column above the surface) exceeding 2.75” in some spots, according to satellite-based estimates. Later this week, Debbie’s remnants will flow southeastward and merge with a frontal zone, perhaps dumping additional heavy rain onto the mountains of southern New Zealand.


Figure 5. Rainfall for the six-day period starting at 06Z Tuesday (5:00 pm Tuesday local time in Queensland) could exceed 200 mm (8”) over the higher terrain of Queensland, Australia. Storm totals for Debbie could reach 500 mm (20”) in some spots. A swath of moisture associated with Debbie’s remnants may extend to the west coast of New Zealand’s South Island. Projections shown here are from the 06Z Tuesday run of the GFS model. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Debbie will slow coral bleaching in portions of the Great Barrier Reef
Though the wave action from Tropical Cyclone Debbie likely caused some destruction of fragile corals along portions of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, that wondrous natural site is likely to experience a net benefit from the passage of Debbie. The cooling effect of the storm on near record-warm summer waters that were besieging the reef will help reduce coral mortality from the reef’s ongoing coral bleaching event. By raising global temperatures overall, human-produced climate change has led to especially sharp oceanic warming during El Niño events. The result has been three global coral bleaching events: the first in 1998, the second in 2010, and the third beginning in 2015. That event is still under way— the longest, most widespread, and most damaging on record, according to NOAA.

Preliminary satellite data (Figure 5) showed that Debbie’s passage had already cooled waters near the coast of Australia by up to 2°C on Monday, and additional cooling has occurred since that time. This amount of cooling may be enough to stop widespread coral bleaching and die-off along central portions of the Great Barrier Reef.


Figure 6. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average on March 27, 2017. Debbie’s passage had already cooled waters near the coast of Australia by up to 2°C by this time, and additional cooling has occurred since the time of this image. Image credit: NOAA.

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef suffered its greatest coral die-off ever observed in 2016, when about two-thirds of the shallow-water coral on the reef’s previously pristine, 430-mile northern stretch died. The only thing that saved the southern portion of the 1,400-mile long reef was wind, rain and cloud cover from the passage of ex-Cyclone Winston, which churned up the waters and cooled water temperatures by up to 3°C. As discussed in a paper published this month in the journal Nature, ”Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals,” Winston passed over Fiji on February 20, when the southern Great Barrier Reef was only 1 °C cooler than the north. By March 6th, this disparity increased to 4 °C. Corals in the south that had begun to pale in February regained their color in the south in March, whereas bleaching continued to progress in central and northern sectors.


Figure 7. Prior to the arrival of Debbie, the entire Great Barrier Reef was experiencing “Alert Level 2” bleaching stress (associated with widespread coral bleaching and significant mortality), according to the latest four-month forecast from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch. This is the highest level of thermal stress in NOAA’s warning system for coral reefs.

Hurricanes can alleviate thermal stress on corals by three mechanisms:

1) Hurricanes absorb energy from surface waters through the transfer of latent heat, causing evaporative cooling. The magnitude of the cooling is related to the intensity and extent of the hurricane.

2) Local upwelling brings deeper, cooler water to the surface. The amount of surface cooling resulting from these mixing mechanisms will depend on the hurricane wind speed and how the water temperature varies with depth at each location.

3) Clouds of a hurricane shade the ocean surface from solar heating, allowing the water to cool and reducing light stress.

The benefits of reducing coral reef damage can be economic as well as ecological. Australia relies on the Great Barrier Reef for about 70,000 jobs and billions of dollars annually in tourism revenue, according to a recent New York Times analysis.

We’ll be back with a new post by Wednesday at the latest.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 8. A variety of corals form an outcrop on Flynn Reef, part of the Great Barrier Reef near Cairns, Queensland, Australia. Image credit: Toby Hudson/Wikimedia Commons.

Hurricane Coral Reefs

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I hope every one in Australia is safe.
Thank you for an excellent report on the TS hitting Australia and the resultant benefit to the reef system. Without satellites we would not know the up welling cold water resulted in the wake of the storm.

What new satellite systems will be available for the Atlantic hurricane season and what advances in predictions of direction and wind field strengths can we expect?
nice well put together lunch time read
thanks for the update have a great day
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GFS is predicting another Tropical system on April 13, this is purely just for laughs
Terry Hughes:
@ProfTerryHughes

1500km of #GreatBarrieReef is blitzed by global warming. Oh, and 100km affected by a cyclone.



Cyclone Debbie: fears reef coral will take decades to recover

A 100km stretch of the Great Barrier Reef was under the direct line of Cyclone Debbie, with scientists last night saying damage could take decades to repair.

theaustralian.com.au
Quoting blog post:

The cycle’s approached marked the largest pre-deployment ever carried out by the Australian Defense Force ahead of a natural disaster, said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.


Should that be "the cyclone's approach" ?
looks like our pre season invest turns into a massive major winter event
for eastern newfoundland it appears

Quoting 6. elioe:



Should that be "the cyclone's approach" ?


Fixed! Two typo catches for the price of one. Thanks, Elioe...
Thanks for the update!

Most recent SPC update has expanded the 10% chance for tornadoes a bit, and the 5% tornado chance area substantially.

Previous:



Now:



Hopefully tornado probabilities won't need to be increased or expanded further. Stay safe everyone who's in the path of the storms today!
Thanks for the Update and good to know (so far) that there are no fatalities from Debbie.

The coral reef issue is fascinating; breakage and battering of newer corals from a storm can take years to recover as noted below but coral bleaching from warming kills the coral altogether. While I appreciate your analysis that this storm actually did some good for the Great Barrier reef, by up-welling some cooler waters to help fight off the current El Nino blast of warm waters in that region, we can't take (nor can Mother Nature make) year round tropical storms over fragile reefs to off-set the impact of year round bleaching from rising SSTs.........................Just Sayin.
Cyclone Debbie Footage Compilation (March 28, 2017) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKTfLAaTomM

ps. Is there a way to embed Yt flicks?
Climate Council warns Queensland will be hard hit by violent storms as the earth warms up http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-19/fears-queen sland-could-experience-more-extreme-weather/819384 4
Btw what happened to the Member since date, just reads since 1969 :) Was so proud of my 2005 membership date, haha!
Quoting 13. drg0dOwnCountry:

Btw what happened to the Member since date, just reads since 1969 :) Was so proud of my 2005 membership date, haha!


U may wanna click the blue banner at the top of the page for info on the personal blogs ending Monday.
Here are some 2005 coral bleaching stats from Noaa (post season analysis in 2010) which also coincided with the record 2005 hurricane season (28 storms); the obvious irony; the same warm SST's that killed off so much coral that year also contributed to a record number of hurricanes with plenty of SST to fuel several majors.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20 101115_coralbleaching.html

Coral reefs suffered record losses as a consequence of high ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean in 2005 according to the most comprehensive documentation of basin-scale bleaching to date. Collaborators from 22 countries report that more than 80 percent of surveyed corals bleached and over 40 percent of the total surveyed died, making this the most severe bleaching event ever recorded in the basin.The study appears in PLoS ONE, an international, peer-reviewed, open-access, online publication.

Satellite-based tools from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch Program guided site selection for field observations conducted across the greater Caribbean region from June to October 2005. Field surveys of bleaching and mortality in this study surpass prior efforts in both detail and extent.

This study also substantially raised the standards for documenting the effects of bleaching and for testing satellite and forecast products. Coral bleaching occurs when stress causes corals to expel their symbiotic algae, or zooxanthellae. If prolonged or particularly severe, it may result in coral death.

“Heat stress during the 2005 event exceeded any observed in the Caribbean in the prior 20 years, and regionally-averaged temperatures were the warmest in at least 150 years,” said C. Mark Eakin, Ph.D., coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch Program. “This severe, widespread bleaching and mortality will undoubtedly have long-term consequences for reef ecosystems, and events like this are likely to become more common as the climate warms.”

Through this survey, several species and localities reported bleaching for the first time, including the first known bleaching of any kind in Saba, the first documented mass bleaching at the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, and the first reported mass bleaching in Virgin Islands National Park of Acropora palmata, a species listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2006.

I see debbie left some cold wet spots when she roared through...

Speaking of which, snowed this morning in Anchorage.
Quoting 13. drg0dOwnCountry:

Btw what happened to the Member since date, just reads since 1969 :) Was so proud of my 2005 membership date, haha!

Have you read the blue banner FAQ a the very top of the website. It would be a good idea.
Thanks for the new entry! Fingers crossed for the corals and everybody else living at this coast in Australia ...
Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen...
Quoting 16. Patrap:



U may wanna click the blue banner at the top of the page for info on the personal blogs ending Monday.

Ok, things change, i can adapt to that.

Mr Trump signed the order while flanked by coal miners

Trump signs order undoing Obama climate change policies
BBC, 13 minutes ago
:-(
Edit: WU suffered a hiccup in the exact moment the new anti-climate order was signed by 45 ...

Youtube of the event if you can stand watching: link.
very freaky today
Quoting 20. barbamz:

WATCH LIVE:
Trump discusses executive order rolling back Obama climate change rules
https://yhoo.it/2hRkdty

:-(((


Trump White House to Take Aim at Obama Era Climate Policy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7twAd1ez0oo
Wow, not even Hurricane Season for us, and look at the size of that Tropical Cyclone!!
Very interesting article.................
Site very slow right now....
Wow, not even Hurricane Season for us, and look at the size of that Tropical Cyclone!!
Very interesting article.................
Quoting 28. PedleyCA:

Site very slow right now....
Probably get slower as they continue to gut the system. Doppler detected storms no longer works on Nexrad as a list. The graphic still comes up on the map though. Trust me, don't trust this site for critical weather info, it is totally unreliable.
Boy, they really know what they are doing pulling this crap at this time of year.
I've been hoping the NHC would publish the Hurricane Matthew report while the current blog system is still here so we can talk about it.


Not fake news if you take the time to discern and learn the differences between storm designations in the Southern Hemisphere and the fact that Australia is on the metric system; then you also consider the kilometer conversions in terms of wind speeds and such..............Hopefully you get the picture I am trying make.........................A devastating storm for them anyway you slice it.
From Grist:

BAM!



Trump just took a sledgehammer to Obama’s climate legacy. “Together we are going to start a new energy revolution,” the president said just before signing an executive order to boost old, dirty energy industries.

Here’s what he’s ordering his administration to do:

Toss out and rewrite the EPA’s Clean Power Plan, which aims to cut CO2 pollution from coal-fired power plants, as well as another rule intended to make new power plants cleaner.

End a moratorium on the leasing of federal land to coal-mining companies.

Roll back a rule that would curb methane emissions from oil and gas operations on public lands.

Rewrite a rule that would more closely regulate fracking on federal lands.

Step back from accounting for the full economic cost of climate change (aka the social cost of carbon) when making decisions.

Reverse an order that called for federal agencies to consider climate change when writing environmental impact statements for projects.

Review all federal rules to find any that stymie energy production.

(Vox has a great detailed rundown.)

This follows on the heels of Trump putting Obama’s ambitious auto fuel-economy rules on ice and attacking other environmental protections.

Some of the moves will go into effect quickly, but rolling back the Clean Power Plan and methane rule could take years and get tied up in court. Environmentalists are already plotting to take legal action and trip up Trump’s agenda in any way they can.





Seven News Mackay 28 Mar 2017 Cyclone Debbie coverage








Quoting 4. Icybubba:

img src="">
GFS is predicting another Tropical system on April 13, this is purely just for laughs
Hard laughs for sure.
Quoting 25. PedleyCA:

very freaky today


Like gro in a bikini freaky or just wierd?
At the end of the day, if you are really serious about the weather, you can bypass television altogether and go right to the source such as NOAA and all of the other available websites(including University sites and National Weather Services from other countries as well) that we routinely access, use and post on here......Why it is so important to fund NOAA by the way.....................................
so come in on a break and time for clean up
So it seems still no Special TWO on 90L, we'll see what happens, but it seems they are not taking any steps to suggest they are too worried about it.
Quoting 53. Dakster:



Like gro in a bikini freaky or just wierd?


No, the 2nd one...lol
Things starting to pick-up with one tornado warning currently up in Texas and the stakes going up with the first hail report coming in................Time for things to go boom for the remainder of the afternoon and evening:


last3hours Reports Graphic




.
Nasty weather headed inbound out ahead of that damn low................................




Bernie Sanders‏:
@SenSanders

Mr. Trump, you cannot run a government by rejecting science. Listen to the scientific community, not the CEOs of the fossil fuel industry.

Our job is to save the planet not make more profits for the oil, gas and coal industries. We must act boldly to transform our energy system.
Morning live blog from Brisbane Times has started:
Cyclone Debbie live updates: Queensland cleans up as storm moves inland
Queenslanders are waking up to a huge clean-up after Cyclone Debbie tore through the state...
Quoting 11. drg0dOwnCountry:

Cyclone Debbie Footage Compilation (March 28, 2017) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKTfLAaTomM

ps. Is there a way to embed Yt flicks?
yes use old embed code and change the vid code within the code I removed the less than great than symbols so you can see

embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/lM3k8begTzQ?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="700" height="325" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true">




Actually, does anyone have a source, if the 1-min sustained winds were estimated at 120 mph? Did JTWC provide such estimation? The first link in the blog entry mentions, that 10-min winds were estimated at 120 mph. With normal conversion between those, 1-min sustained winds would be roughly 135 mph. So any Weather Channel assertion about Debbie having been a Category 4 would be correct after all even on Saffir-Simpson scale.

This Abandoned Pennsylvania Town Has Been On Fire For 53 Years
And it could burn for another 250 years.
By James Cave

Signs warn visitors to the dangers of death by asphyxiation or being swallowed by the ground, but the old mining town of Centralia, Pennsylvania, was once home to more than 1,000 people.

Now it’s nothing more than a smoldering ghost town that’s been burning for half a century.

It started with a fire intentionally set to burn out a landfill before Labor Day in 1962 — the problem was that the landfill was also an old strip-mine pit connected to a maze of abandoned underground mining tunnels full of coal.






READ FULL ARTICLE


Link
Chad Cowan‏:
@stormtimelapse

Sculpted supercells in western Nebraska with epic sunset light- 4k StormLapse: vimeo.com/210349564



Click link if it doesn't embed properly - image of a tornado.

Already have 5 tornado reports:

Those pics below of the burning coal are amazing; reminds me of the methane gas plumes (albeit invisible to the eye) being released from Arctic lakes as permafrost melts..................................
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/user-resources/s ensing-our-planet/leaking-lakes

Image result for methane bubbling from siberian thaw lakes pictures

Walter Anthony had been studying methane seeping from Arctic lakes, beginning in northeast Siberia in 2000. Under the lakes, a thick layer of carbon from plants that died hundreds or thousands of years ago stays mostly locked up in permanently frozen ground, like broccoli in the freezer. Today, soils in Siberia and northern Alaska are particularly rich with that organic matter. Now Arctic tundra hovers at a colder temperature that sprouts no trees and only low shrubs and plants, but millions of ponds and lakes. In areas where that permafrost is warming, that organic matter is thawing, rotting, and producing gases that must escape through the lakes.

Michael Phelps is having a live stream talking about the storms on radar as the severe weather progresses - Link

His commentary is quite good and informative - currently on a 15min break at the moment.

Edit: Michael has stopped commenting and is just leaving the stream up to view the radar.
"Trump signs order undoing Obama climate change policies
BBC, 13 minutes ago"
:-(

What a frigging idiot!
There appears to have been a car accident causing 3 people to die, including two storm chasers:




Such a sad situation. Thoughts to the families of those killed.
Quoting 80. frank727:

For the good of all, now is the time to rid science of the charlatans and the science-barbarians, and to create an environment where science can flourish in truth and where scientists can work freely without fear of retribution or denouncement for challenging extant ideas or for failing to adopt the 'politically correct' consensus-approved storyline. The corruption and bureaucracy of our present and past government have not only falsified much science data but also have created problems where none have existed.


Cool, I am a science barbarian? Awesome. Gotta put that on my CV.
Quoting 75. Envoirment:

Michael Phelps is having a live stream talking about the storms on radar as the severe weather progresses - Link

His commentary is quite good and informative - currently on a 15min break at the moment.


And he does it swimmingly.
I hope people that like to dismiss scientific consensus follow through with that philosophy when taking advice from their doctor... you know, for the good of all.
Barbie Wilson‏ @barbiedoll0087 3h3 hours ago
@NWSKeyWest now 5! Wow! #waterspout #geigerkey #flwx @weatherchannel @Anaridis

Quoting 83. OKsky:

I hope people that like to dismiss scientific consensus follow through with that philosophy when taking advice from their doctor... you know, for the good of all.
we gonna make black lung great again lol



remember to sign your black lung waiver upon completion of the coal digger application
Wow, think we have it bad..



Found the original source on FB..if anyone has any ideas where this collection could go respond there. The rest was...(and the pic was included...

Oh, in other sad news, we were informed that there will not be any expansion of the public displays in Hanna Hall.


Adding a little music to get though these times...
Everyone in harms way this evening be safe and tuned to your Noaa weather radio and see Yall in the am; tornadoes breaking out all over parts of Texas at the moment courtesy of the added vorticity from the Conus jet pushing into the region causing some pretty dynamic forcing along with warm Gulf flow which really picked up since this morning.  It's going to be a long night in Texas.

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE20.GIF
Quoting 86. Skyepony:


why would they do that I don't understand destroying this someone will take it they have to what a shame
Quoting 86. Skyepony:




That is infuriating.

From abc7:

Reports: Two storm chasers dead in wreck outside Spur, Texas

SPUR, Texas (KVII) —
Reports are indicating two storm chasers have died in a wreck just outside of Spur, Texas.

According to posts on Twitter, the crash killed three people, two of which are storm chasers. The news comes just after a tornado warning was issued for Dickens County, in the area where the crash happened.

The Texas Department of Public Safety said the two-vehicle wreck happened five miles west of Spur on FM-2794 in Dickens County. However, at the time, DPS could only confirm that one person had died in the wreck.

Storm chasers on Twitter are now updating their statuses to let people know they are not the ones involved in the deadly crash.
Kat Piotrowski:
@TwisterChasers

Tragedy strikes our community once again, confirming 3 storm chasers killed west of Spur TX. Now is the time to pray not share names.#txwx
young folks believe in science. thank god for bernie
Quoting 93. FOREX:


no politics please.


that is politics, but related to climate (which is localized weather, over time), which is allowed.

if i was to say talk about how nepotism is rife within the trump administration, that would not be allowed, because it has nothing to do with weather.

dr. masters has already stated his strong opinions on this subject, and while he may not use the word 'idiot', given what we know about humans effect on the atmosphere, looking at the policies trump undid today that protected the environment, 'idiot' is about the most appropriate word there is (that doesn't get into foul language anyway)

i hope your report goes nowhere!
Quoting 94. Xandra:

Kat Piotrowski:
@TwisterChasers

Tragedy strikes our community once again, confirming 3 storm chasers killed west of Spur TX. Now is the time to pray not share names.#txwx
sad I hope racing to a storm was not a reason for this all the best for their families not a good day for them
Quoting 100. FOREX:


you must be new around here. No politics please. Blog is discussing tropics.


He just stated an official rule and you're questioning him. You're sounding like the newbie here. Read what he said.
Climate Change and the Collision between Human and Geologic Time
Peter Gleick/ScienceBlogs - March 27, 2017.

Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress
PNAS, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - February 2017.

A changing climate for coral reefs
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - October 2016.


centre of debbie still very evident (when you look at this BIG anyway, check himawari 8's latest images to zoom in) Link as most action has faded around here center, but she continues to convect thunderstorms in her outerbands (which i'm guessing are still over water)
Quoting 100. FOREX:


you must be new around here. No politics please. Blog is discussing tropics.

Member since December 31, 1969
Quoting 104. FOREX:

again, being a new user, you will not last long when things get busy here. good luck.


um excuse me i've been here since december 31, 1969
Just what the heck is this?
Please keep personal disputes out of the blogs
Quoting 108. earthisanocean:



um excuse me i've been here since december 31, 1969

lol
here more on the news

Link
Quoting 86. Skyepony:

Wow, think we have it bad..



Found the original source on FB..if anyone has any ideas where this collection could go respond there. The rest was...(and the pic was included...

Oh, in other sad news, we were informed that there will not be any expansion of the public displays in Hanna Hall.


Adding a little music to get though these times...




Don't lose faith, Sky. An old German proverb says "Gottes Mühlen mahlen langsam, mahlen aber trefflich klein" or as Wordworth wrote, "Though the mills of God grind slowly; Yet they grind exceeding small".

I have always believed that what goes around comes around.
Quoting 100. FOREX:


you must be new around here. No politics please. Blog is discussing tropics.


Texas and the southern US is not quite that warm yet. Given the new agenda launched by the current administration, they may be a part of the tropics by the time President T leaves office.
Wow that is horrible..does look like TWC crew.
Quoting 118. Skyepony:

Wow that is horrible..does look like TWC crew.



Ugh









David Baxter has a tornado on his stream - Link

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXC207-253-282345-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-170328T2345Z/
Haskell TX-Jones TX-
611 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES...

At 610 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Stamford, and is nearly stationary. Trained spotter
reported a large tornado 2 miles east of Stamford.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may
be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes
will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction
is possible.

The tornado will be near...
Paint Creek and Lake Stamford Marina around 620 PM CDT.
Haskell around 630 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move
to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. take
immediate tornado precautions. this is an emergency situation.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 9972 3290 9986 3324 9980 3321 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 194DEG 41KT 3298 9975

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

Woodward

Lots of tornado activity going on at the moment, stay safe everyone!
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
619 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXC087-483-282330-
/O.CON.KAMA.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-170328T2330Z/
Wheeler TX-Collingsworth TX-
619 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL WHEELER AND NORTHEASTERN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES...

At 619 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located 4 miles northeast of
Lutie, or 10 miles south of Shamrock, moving northeast at 35 mph.


Link



Click link for video of tornado if it doesn't embed right.
Frederick/Altus AFB, OK (KFDR) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Here is Kelley's youtube livestream. It's off the air but there is some of the chaser community discussing it in the side. Everyone is speculating it was Kelley and Randy and the third was another chaser on his first chase in a black jeep that ran the stop sign.
Quoting 126. Skyepony:

Here is Kelley's youtube livestream. It's off the air but there is some of the chaser community discussing it in the side. Everyone is speculating it was Kelley and Randy and the third was another chaser on his first chase in a black jeep that ran the stop sign.


newbie fatal mistake the last mistake sad sad sad

PLS IF ANY CHASERS OUT CHASING
READING HEADS UP PAY ATTENTION
FOLLOW THE RULES OF THE ROAD
PLS ITS NOT WORTH DYING FOR
For some reason it did not post my comment earlier, it was just me apologizing for earlier
Quoting 110. wartsttocs:

Just what the heck is this?



That is a skull, looking angrily at Texas, and a terrible shoulder zit.
Quoting 126. Skyepony:

Here is Kelley's youtube livestream. It's off the air but there is some of the chaser community discussing it in the side. Everyone is speculating it was Kelley and Randy and the third was another chaser on his first chase in a black jeep that ran the stop sign.

Kevin Martin 45 min ·

Storm chasers were killed in Texas today.... Read more >>

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
700 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXC207-290015-
/O.CON.KSJT.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170329T0015Z/
Haskell TX-
700 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
HASKELL COUNTY...

At 659 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located near Weinert, or 8 miles southeast of Munday, moving
northeast at 15 mph.


This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

Link
Quoting 202. OviedoWatcher:



The more of these you post the more Old English looks like modern Scandinavian languages - Modern Swedish translation is Rygg, pronounced roughly RYUGGH
A reply for you in comment #1196 of my blog. I am curious whether my blog title ic eom wrætlic wiht on gewin sceapen is intelligible to you :)
A couple of links especially for Dakster but with input welcome from all in comment #1198 of my blog.
Xandra~If that is the final moments, both vehicles may have ran the stop sign.
Quoting 136. Skyepony:

Xandra~If that is the final moments, both vehicles may have ran the stop sign.

Not that it really matters. The outcome remains the same.
138. MahFL
Quoting 136. Skyepony:

Xandra~If that is the final moments, both vehicles may have ran the stop sign.


According to the police only the suburban ignored the stop sign, which I beleive was being driven by Randy with Kelly Williamson as the passenger.

Link
Quoting 82. Grothar:



And he does it swimmingly.


He just dives right in to the discussion too.
Renowned climate scientist worries about intimidation, lack of govt. funding

Now, climate change funding is on the federal chopping block.
. . .
What worries him more, he says, is a new climate of intimidation.

"There's been a statement, get with the program or get out. If the program is to advance ignorance, then I'm not with the program," he said.
Ugh

It's now been confirmed on TWC Kelley and Randy are dead


We need too have a 1 minute of silence
so guys I have yet to receive an answer

if I wanna continue with WU, I need to create a Disqus account. Right?
Quoting 142. wunderkidcayman:

so guys I have yet to receive an answer

if I wanna continue with WU, I need to create a Disqus account. Right?


Yes, all you need is an email address to do so.
Quoting 141. thetwilightzone:

Ugh

It's now been confirmed on TWC Kelley and Randy are dead


We need too have a 1 minute of silence


Weather Channel Statement on Loss of Beloved Members of the Weather Community

This afternoon we learned that three people died in a car accident in Texas, including two contractors for the Weather Channel, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall. Kelley and Randy were beloved members of the weather community. We are saddened by this loss and our deepest sympathies go out to the families and loved ones of all involved.
Question:

Anybody read Eric Berger's latest blog in www.spacecityweather.com? Why is he skeptical about a cap remaining intact for areas south of I-10 when the forecast models clearly show that? Hm?
The drivers and occupant in the two car crash west of Spur, Tx have been identified. The driver of the Suburban was identified as Kelley Gene Williamson, 57, of Cassville, Mo. Mr. Williamson was ejected from the vehicle at the time of the crash. Mr. Williamson was not wearing his seatbelt. The passenger in the Suburban was identified as Randall Delane Yarnall, 55, also of Cassville, Mo. Mr. Yarnall was wearing a seatbelt. The driver of the Jeep was identified as Corbin Lee Jaeger, 25, of Peoria, Arizona. Mr. Jaeger was wearing a seatbelt. The crash is still under investigation."


http://www.everythinglubbock.com/news/local-news/ dps-and-dickens-co-officials-called-to-report-of-d eadly-crash/682015058
Quoting 110. wartsttocs:

Just what the heck is this?

Could be convective feedback.
Smog over New York City, November 1953. This smog event killed 260 people in the NYC area.

Quoting 138. MahFL:


Link

That said Kelley was driving and was the only one not wearing a seatbeat. He was ejected from the vehicle. It's crazy this is out there. It seems to be the last moments, they gun it before what looks like about to run a four way stop. Video ends very close to the intersection. Can't see the other car. That news report didn't really say Corbin stopped at a sign there, even could have been a two way stop. The fact everybody died says something about the overall speed of the accident.
Quoting 86. Skyepony:

Wow, think we have it bad..



Found the original source on FB..if anyone has any ideas where this collection could go respond there. The rest was...(and the pic was included...

Oh, in other sad news, we were informed that there will not be any expansion of the public displays in Hanna Hall.


Adding a little music to get though these times...



We seem to be in a haste to return to the Dark Age.
It's going too be some time. Be for I can start watching live storm chasing. Again I am going be takeing a break with the small outbreaks for right now. The next time I may watch live storm chasing is when we have a uppper end mod risk or high risk day but no more small tornado out breaks for right now this is going to be hard now has I don't have Kelley and Randy they where fun too watch on YouTube live storm chasing


154. MahFL
Quoting 151. Skyepony:

That news report didn't really say Corbin stopped at a sign there, even could have been a two way stop. The fact everybody died says something about the overall speed of the accident.



Google Earth shows only the North/South road had a stop sign, so Kelly hit the other driver who had the right of way, the combined speed of the crash is evident from the on scene pics.
So eerie to hear Kelly talking like every other time we've ever heard him during a chase; right before the fatal collision. One mile per hour slower or faster at any point in the day and this ends differently. You just never know and it can happen in the blink of an eye. Tragic and sad. I enjoyed watching him through the years, he will be missed.
Quoting 137. daddyjames:


Not that it really matters. The outcome remains the same.


Being right and dead, is still dead...

i wounder what bob and Jeff have too have about this we have not here from them since the new broke out


No tornadoes here in OK, but just a tad bit on the windy side in some places. El Reno, Ok - 95 mph wind gust. Tractor trailers blown over on I-40 and reports of power poles and trees down.

Aerial flooding warning issued for Oklahoma County including OKC.


95 mph gust at El Reno is tops. Accompanied by gusts in the 40's to 60's mph ranges.
SW OK got a beating with the wind. Hobart and Hinton especially. I hope that Barefootontherocks/Storm Drain is ok? Anyone know?



Previous map was for the last hour. This is top wind gusts for the past 24 hours.

How are folks in TX doing?
Quoting 149. BaltimoreBrian:

Could be convective feedback.
Nope, all models show that.
Our family just heard the news as the Sons Band was playing tonight here in NOLA.


A tragedy of circumstances indeed. We send our prayers and thoughts to all the Families, friends and community members.

They were doing what they loved...and their loss was not in vain.










Quoting 155. DeepSeaRising:

So eerie to hear Kelly talking like every other time we've ever heard him during a chase; right before the fatal collision. One mile per hour slower or faster at any point in the day and this ends differently. You just never know and it can happen in the blink of an eye. Tragic and sad. I enjoyed watching him through the years, he will be missed.


He didnt even have time to hit the skids, had to be going close to hwy speed.
Quoting 138. MahFL:



According to the police only the suburban ignored the stop sign, which I beleive was being driven by Randy with Kelly Williamson as the passenger.

Link


A small comfort, but judging by the speed they were travelling in the video and the wreckage in the pictures afterwards, everyone involved would have died instantly. :(
You know, I really liked that guy. To people not from the south he may have sounded dumb as a box of rocks, but the dude had passion and was always out there providing live feeds for all of us to see on national tv. My favorite memory was when they lost the live signal and switched back to the studio with an updated radar. When they displayed his gps location overtop the radar, the look on Mike Bettes' face was priceless as you saw genuion fear in his face.
Mike: "and here is his current location on radar.... oh my, i really hope that isn't his current location, that is just right on top of him i hope he knows"...
On radar he was located within the hook echo with a clear debris ball barely south of him.
Im not making jokes or poking fun in poor taste, because we lost a good guy who was too overcome with adrenaline and the chase to follow rule #4:
'Pretty basic, fasten your seatbelts. Its going to be a bumpy ride' Man ill miss that excited pure southern draw, i looked forward to wunderground tv because he was always on a storm and with great feeds and color commentary.
RIP my man, not a believer myself but I know he was, and i hope he has an even better veiw looking down into the eye of the twisters he once chased.
Peace
I would of given up a weeks pay to share a case of beer with him and listen to his animated chase stories. What a shame man
Quoting 164. Envoirment:





yeah I agree



Condolences.

Meanwhile keep an eye on India/Pakistan. Don't go there for a while. The premonsoon is already terrifying.
Weather Channel Statement on Loss of Beloved Members of the Weather Community

This afternoon we learned that three people died in a car accident in Texas, including two contractors for the Weather Channel, Kelley Williamson and Randy Yarnall. Kelley and Randy were beloved members of the weather community. We are saddened by this loss and our deepest sympathies go out to the families and loved ones of all involved.


Image source

------------------

Royal Norman:
@royalnorman

Rest in Peace, Corbin Jeager. The weather community of Arizona will miss you. Our hearts and prayers go out to your family.

Man Dies After Wind Rolls Over Semi On I-40 In El Reno

EL RENO, Oklahoma - All lanes of I-40 in El Reno are back open after strong winds from last night's storms caused a semi-truck to roll over, killing the driver.
Val and Amy Castor were on the scene near El Reno about 9:30 p.m. Tuesday.

The victim's name has not been released.


Unfortunately, another victim of the storms last night.
174. Ed22
Quoting 170. wunderkidcayman:



yeah I agree




Very much so, every well organized.





Although a short-term inconvenience due to flood warning issued through this morning, this 24-hour bit of rain will stymie the dryness/drought we have been experiencing here in OK.
Although we still need a bit more that will deliver relief to some other regions of the state.



Source
Top 10 wind gusts (ties included) in OK with that round of storms last night/early morning.
These were not associated with any tornadoes.



Source
This is NOT something you see every day





Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE
TN...NORTHWEST AL...AND SOUTHWEST KY...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL MS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
An active severe weather event is forecast for Thursday over parts
of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley.

...Northern MS/Northwest AL/Western and Middle TN/Southwest KY...
A strong upper trough will rotate across the southern/central Plains
today, and into the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday. Models suggest
that thunderstorm activity from the Day1 period will be waning in
most areas by Thursday morning, while the primary cold front remains
over central AR/LA. This should allow for some heating and
destabilization to occur ahead of the front, with re-development of
thunderstorms during the afternoon near the MS River. A strong
mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold
front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep
layer vertical shear profiles. Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH
values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg. Several 00z cam
solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete
supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a
favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT
risk area. The eastward extent of low level moisture will be a
limiting factor to how far east the significant severe threat will
develop. Nevertheless, strong to severe storms may reach eastern
KY/TN and parts of AL during the evening.

...MO/IL/IN...
It appears the risk for severe storms will also extend northward
into parts of MO/IL/IN during the day as activity blossoms ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough. This area will likely experience
more cloud cover on Thursday, limiting the confidence in sufficient
instability. Nevertheless, hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the stronger cells.

Good Morning Folks.  You covered the outlook below and here is the current look and jet position. T-storms already firing in the early am and the jet is positioned to deliver some more vorticity like yesterday.......................Remember that the peak of the Spring tornado season is yet to come in May and June...................Our tornado numbers for the US this year are already off the charts..................................



Here are the current preliminary NOAA tornado numbers only through Feb 17th........
Gonna go way up and bust the recent 3-year average once the late-Feb and March
numbers are in and confirmed including this current 4-day period:

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI FEB 17 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 141 - 17 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB 115 - 102 3 42 39 4 7 0 0 2 3 4 0 0 1
MAR 111 - 86 11 20 38 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
APR - - 141 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 90 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 38 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 20 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 50* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 18* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 367 - 971 1177 886 1041 24 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8



And the numbers from yesterday:


yesterday Reports Graphic
Here are some charts from the US Tornado site with the outbreaks so far this year; this current period will be close in total numbers when all is said and done:
http://www.ustornadoes.com/2017/01/05/the-l argest-tornado-outbreaks-of-2017/



Michael E. Mann:
@MichaelEMann

House Science Committee Hearing on "Climate Science" will be live-streamed here, Wednesday morning 10 AM ET: democrats.science.house.gov/hearing/climate-scien ce-assumptions-policy-implications-and-scientific- method

---------------------------------

See also:

Our planet is melting at both ends: Arctic and Antarctica hit record low ice extents

Thu, Mar 23, 2017



[...]

It’s rare in science you can say something with anything near 100% certainty. And yet, here we are: Climate change due to global warming is real, and it’s because of us. We add 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, into the air every year. This upsets the Earth’s natural heat balance, allowing a small amount of warming sunlight to stick around rather than get radiated out into space.

Our planet is heating up, humans are the reason, and we know this to be a fact. Yet our politicians in charge deny this very simple and critical truth [the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology just announced a hearing on climate science for next week, and invited four scientists to testify; one is realist Michael Mann (invited by the minority Committee members, of course) and the other three are well-known figures who downplay the effects of global warming on climate], even going so far as to deny the incredibly basic science about greenhouse effects we’ve known for over a century.

We’ll be seeing more statements and legislation coming from this science-denying Congressional majority as time goes by. When it happens, I urge you to contact your Senators and Representatives. Let them know that climate change is real, it’s now, and not only is it a threat national security, but denial of it is a national security as well, and we have to do what we can to stop it.

Click here to read full article.

---------------------------------

Letter to Lamar Smith

March 28, 2017

The Committee on Science, Space & Technology of the US House of Representatives conducts regular evidence hearings on various science topics. On Wednesday 29th March, there is a hearing on “Climate science: assumptions, policy implications, and the scientific method”. The following letter, summarising the scientific findings of Fyfe et al. (2016) and Karl et al. (2015), has been submitted as evidence to this hearing.

The broader context is that the Committee Chairman, Mr. Lamar Smith, has previously discussed the findings of Fyfe et al. (of which I was a co-author), claiming: “A new peer-reviewed study, published in the journal Nature, confirms the halt in global warming”. This statement is incorrect, and motivated the clarification on what Fyfe et al. actually says.

Click here to read more.
Couldn't believe it last night, hearing about those guys. I was just watching TWC showing his location with radar overlay earlier. Flipped to local news at 10 and that's when I first heard about it, they said 3 storm chasers were killed and said Kelly Williamson, and was stunned because I know the name.

Watched last few seconds of video and you can hear their engine rev up, and if you pause it you can see the dismal stop sign on the right. Out in that part of the country those stop signs should be 5 ft big and highly noticeable. Eerie why video stops before showing crash, unless Youtube did that on purpose, not sure why.
Quoting 177. 62901IL:

This is NOT something you see every day





Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MS...WESTERN AND MIDDLE
TN...NORTHWEST AL...AND SOUTHWEST KY...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
CENTRAL MS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MS VALLEYS...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
An active severe weather event is forecast for Thursday over parts
of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley.

...Northern MS/Northwest AL/Western and Middle TN/Southwest KY...
A strong upper trough will rotate across the southern/central Plains
today, and into the lower/mid MS Valley on Thursday. Models suggest
that thunderstorm activity from the Day1 period will be waning in
most areas by Thursday morning, while the primary cold front remains
over central AR/LA. This should allow for some heating and
destabilization to occur ahead of the front, with re-development of
thunderstorms during the afternoon near the MS River. A strong
mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold
front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep
layer vertical shear profiles. Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH
values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg. Several 00z cam
solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete
supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a
favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT
risk area. The eastward extent of low level moisture will be a
limiting factor to how far east the significant severe threat will
develop. Nevertheless, strong to severe storms may reach eastern
KY/TN and parts of AL during the evening.

...MO/IL/IN...
It appears the risk for severe storms will also extend northward
into parts of MO/IL/IN during the day as activity blossoms ahead of
the approaching shortwave trough. This area will likely experience
more cloud cover on Thursday, limiting the confidence in sufficient
instability. Nevertheless, hail and damaging wind will be possible
in the stronger cells.





that is for Tomorrow not today
And finally, the current wind profile for this morning; not much warmer flow from the Gulf yet but that should pick up later today out of the Western Gulf as the front approaches LA:

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE11.GIF


Actually, parts of the Northern Gulf are relatively cool today but this chart illustrates one of the reasons that the May-June tornado period is so active because the flow is warmer as the Gulf warms headed towards the summer.

Too early to comment on what a hurricane might do later this year while passing through the Yucatan Channel and the current Gulf Eddy in that region....................



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Sincerest condolences to the families involved in the crash yesterday. They had to be screaming down that road for those vehicles to look like that.
Sub-surface Anoms EQ Pac