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Weird Coastal El Nino Clobbers Peru: 80 Killed, $1.4 Billion in Damage

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:00 PM GMT on March 24, 2017

The world’s costliest flood disaster of 2017 is still unfolding across parts of coastal Peru, where extreme rainfall atop normally dry terrain has led to episodes of major flooding over the last few weeks. More than 110,000 people have been displaced by flooding since December, according to Reuters, and more than 80 deaths have been reported.

The death toll makes the floods of 2017 Peru’s deadliest floods since 2009 - 2010, when 158 people died in flooding between December and March. Preliminary damages from the 2017 rains and flooding in Peru are estimated at $1.4 billion (0.7% of Peru’s GDP), according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. Significant damage has been done to Peru’s infrastructure, with 2,188 kilometers (1,360 miles) of main roads and 928 kilometers (577 miles) of rural roads destroyed, along with 194 bridges. Approximately 671 kilometers (417 miles) of irrigation canals have been destroyed and as many as 23,000 hectares (56,000 acres) of crops damaged or destroyed, including grapes, mangoes, and bananas.


Figure 1. Huachipa district, east of Lima, on March 19, 2017. Flash floods and landslides hit parts of Lima, where most of the water distribution systems have collapsed and people are facing drinking water shortages. Photo credit: ERNESTO BENAVIDES/AFP/Getty Images

According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, the most expensive natural disaster in Peruvian history occurred during the El Niño rains of 1983, when heavy rains unleashed a landslide that killed 596 people and cost $2.4 billion (2017 dollars.) The Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) estimated total damages from the rains and flooding of the 1982 - 1983 El Niño amounted to 8.1% of Peru’s GDP. The El Niño rains of 1997 -1998 also exacted a heavy toll; the GFDRR estimated that Peru suffered nearly $2 billion in losses (5.9% of GDP).

Flooding where it’s been raining—and where it hasn’t
The current Southern Hemisphere summer is Peru’s rainy season, but this year has delivered in a much bigger way than usual. At least two stations in the far northern coastal province of Piura recorded about 10 times their average rainfall for the period from January through March, according to a climate.gov blog post by NOAA’s Tom Di Liberto. At a desert location like this, it’s to be expected that the wettest years will produce several times the seasonal average. Still, according to Di Liberto, “2017 is already likely one of the wettest years on record for San Miguel in the Piura province.” San Miguel de Piura had racked up 10” by early March, compared to a typical wet-season total of just 2”. On March 3, the town of Partidor reported an all-time daily record of 258.5 mm (10.18”),

While the heaviest rains have deluged the Pacific-facing west side of Peru’s coastal mountains, especially toward the north, the resulting floods and mudslides have affected many areas downstream, between the mountains and coast. This includes Peru’s capital, Lima, where major damage and disruption (including a disabled municipal water system) have occurred despite virtually no rain in the lowest-lying parts of the city. Just 0.7 mm or 0.03” fell at Lima’s airport from Feb. 2 to Mar. 23. Lima is a premier example of a coastal desert city, with a climate dominated by gentle onshore flow atop cool, upwelled Pacific water. The result is a paradoxical blend of high humidity, frequent cloud cover and fog (especially in winter), but very little rain. Lima’s annual average precipitation is a mere 0.6”, and the city’s wettest day on record—January 16, 1970—brought just 17 mm (0.67”).


Figure 2. Sea-surface temperatures have been warmer than average over the past month across most of the southeastern Pacific. The unusual warmth has been especially sharp near the coast of Peru, where the monthly departures from average are greater than 3°C (5.4°F). Image credit: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño’s weird evolution and its impact on Peru
Peru normally gets its heaviest rains during El Niño events. When El Niño is strong, unusually warm waters extend through the eastern tropical Pacific all the way to the coast of South America. The process shuts off the cold, upwelled current that normally keeps coastal Peru air-conditioned and mostly rain-free. The warmer water is typically accompanied by a stronger tendency toward moist, warm westerly winds off the Pacific into Peru. When that flow reaches the mountains, heavy rains are often squeezed out.

This chain of events played out during the super El Niño of 1997-98, when flooding and mudslides took more than 200 lives in Peru and displaced hundreds of thousands in early 1998. The floods of 2017 have been deemed the worst for Peru since 1998. Some locations in the Piura province have received even more seasonal rain and more extreme one-day rainfalls this year than they did in 1998.

What’s puzzling this time is that the 2014-16 El Niño, the strongest since 1997-98, officially ended more than half a year ago, and it didn’t bring exceptional rain to Peru. Weak La Niña conditions then took hold in late 2016, only to quickly dissipate in early 2017. Meanwhile, sea-surface temperatures off Peru—where the concept of El Niño originated—have skyrocketed since the first of the year. The Niño1+2 region has been running more than 2.0°C above average since late February (see Figure 2 above). This warming has been so strong, and the rainy pattern so clear, that Peru’s national agency for El Niño research, ENFEN, issued a coastal El Niño alert that’s been in place since February 15. Meanwhile, the broader-scale Pacific pattern still hasn’t meshed with the standard El Niño criteria used by NOAA and other international agencies.

Why didn’t El Niño bring the expected heavy rains to Peru in early 2016, and what’s going on this year? The answer may lie in El Niño’s geographic flavor, according to Ken Takahashi (@ktakahashig), an expert at ENFEN and the Instituto Geofísico del Perú. Takahashi has analyzed a number of El Niño events by whether the focus of warming is in the central equatorial Pacific (C-type) or eastern equatorial Pacific (E-type). The other two “super” events of recent decades, 1982-83 and 1997-98, were both E-type, but the 2014-16 event, which peaked in 2015-16, ended up as more of a hybrid, leaning toward a C-type (see Figure 3 below).


Figure 3. Each El Niño can be rated according to whether its sea-surface warming is more focused in the central equatorial Pacific (C index) or the eastern equatorial Pacific (E index). Of the three strongest El Niño events since 1950, the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events were dominated by eastern Pacific warming (E-type), whereas the 2015-16 warming was more of a C-type than E-type event.


“For Peru, the pattern mattered for the impacts,” said Takahashi in an email. In 2015-16, he noted, “the drying effect of the central Pacific warming dominated over the rainy effect of the coastal warming. That was quite different from what's going on this year, in which the large-scale atmospheric pattern is still La Niña-ish, which helps the rains associated with the coastal El Niño.” Takahashi sees some parallels between the current event and another “coastal” El Niño in 1925, which he analyzes in a paper now in review.

Will we get a full-blown El Niño this year?
“The current state of the Pacific is a wonderful example of why we need to change the current definition of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation,” said Michael Ventrice (The Weather Company). “We often try to bin all El Niños or La Niñas into the same category, where in reality there is a spectrum. This year nicely illustrates this, as the current configuration of sea-surface temperature anomalies does not nicely fit the current definition of ENSO.”

Ventrice sees the current sea-surface temperature patterns more as a reflection of atmospheric dynamics rather than an ocean-driven process: “Since the current ocean state is likely more of a response to atmospheric wind stress, I suspect it's unsustainable.” He’ll be watching to see if any westerly wind bursts develop over the western Pacific in April or May. If these don’t develop, then we may not get an El Niño at all in 2017, he told me. “I think a weak El Niño or neutral state is the most likely outcome at this point.” Ventrice emphasizes that we’re now in the midst of the well-known spring predictability barrier, which limits our ability to predict ENSO outcomes.


Figure 4. Departures from the seasonal norm in sea-surface temperatures (SST anomalies) since April 2016 across various parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño conditions are associated with SST anomalies of +0.5°C or greater in the Niño3.4 region. The Niño1+2 region has been exceptionally warm since late January even though the Niño3.4 region has been near neutral. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center.


An early appearance for the Atlantic’s first named storm of 2017?
The models are predicting the formation of a large area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas on Sunday and Monday, and this low has the potential to acquire characteristics of a subtropical storm as it heads north and then northeast, passing a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda on Tuesday. Water temperatures in the region are near 24°C (75°F), which is near average, and these waters may be barely warm enough to support formation of a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. According to phase space diagrams from Florida State University, the low will initially have a warm core that will gradually weaken as the storm encounters cooler waters near 21°C (70°F) by Tuesday. We give 5-day odds of 10% of this low becoming a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Figure 5. GOES infrared satellite image showing an elongated frontal system extending from the northwest Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean Sea at 1645Z (12:45 pm EDT) Friday, March 24, 2017. A center of low pressure is expected to form east of the Bahamas near this decaying front. Image credit: NASA MSFC Earth Science Office.

El Niño Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks guys.
Glad you mentioned the possible Atlantic system! Now we wait for the NHC to get out their yellow crayon...
good info as always

Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction

Abstract
The cause for the end Permian mass extinction, the greatest challenge life on Earth faced in its geologic history, is still hotly debated by scientists. The most significant marker of this event is the negative δ13C shift and rebound recorded in marine carbonates with a duration ranging from 2000 to 19 000 years depending on localities and sedimentation rates. Leading causes for the event are Siberian trap volcanism and the emission of greenhouse gases with consequent global warming. Measurements of gases vaulted in calcite of end Permian brachiopods and whole rock document significant differences in normal atmospheric equilibrium concentration in gases between modern and end Permian seawaters. The gas composition of the end Permian brachiopod-inclusions reflects dramatically higher seawater carbon dioxide and methane contents leading up to the biotic event. Initial global warming of 8–11 °C sourced by isotopically light carbon dioxide from volcanic emissions triggered the release of isotopically lighter methane from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrates. Consequently, the huge quantities of methane emitted into the atmosphere and the oceans accelerated global warming and marked the negative δ13C spike observed in marine carbonates, documenting the onset of the mass extinction period. The rapidity of the methane hydrate emission lasting from several years to thousands of years was tempered by the equally rapid oxidation of the atmospheric and oceanic methane that gradually reduced its warming potential but not before global warming had reached levels lethal to most life on land and in the oceans. Based on measurements of gases trapped in biogenic and abiogenic calcite, the release of methane (of ∼3–14% of total C stored) from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrate is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming (GMAT > 34 °C) and oceanic negative-carbon isotope excursion observed at the end Permian. Global warming triggered by the massive release of carbon dioxide may be catastrophic, but the release of methane from hydrate may be apocalyptic. The end Permian holds an important lesson for humanity regarding the issue it faces today with greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and climate change.


Link
ice builds in the deep deep south

Thanks for the Update Dr. and Mr. Henson.

On the Peruvian flooding issues and El Nino, really great to see a Peruvian met doing the research on this issue and did not know that Peru actually had El Nino research institute.

On the possible low East of the Bahamas, not holding my breath on a warm cored start to a potential sub-tropical storm because of the marginal SSTs out there but anything is possible I suppose.

Now a team of researchers from Canada, Italy, Germany and the US say they have discovered what happened and that their findings have “an important lesson for humanity” in how we deal with current global warming.

According to a paper published in the journal Palaeoworld, volcanic eruptions pumped large amounts of carbon dioxide into the air, causing average temperatures to rise by eight to 11°C.

This melted vast amounts of methane that had been trapped in the permafrost and sea floor, causing temperatures to soar even further to levels “lethal to most life on land and in the oceans”.


Link
From the previous blog...

Quoting 158. Sfloridacat5:


I thought Trump "approved" the Pipeline a long time ago???? Maybe he "approved" it again? Link

Trump Administration Gives Final Approval for Dakota Access Pipeline [...]


They are two different pipelines!

And the current big picture including the low over the US and the front in the Eastern Atlantic. Weak squall line starting to set up all the way from Texas to South West of the Great Lakes at the moment but no severe weather reports over the past three hours except for one hail report in Kansas:

last3hours Reports Graphic

Thanks for the update! I hope the situation in Peru will improve over the coming weeks, such a sad situation there!

Interesting that we could have a March storm, will be keeping a close eye on it, as I'm sure many others will be!

The SPC have now upgraded a small area to a 10% tornado chance on the border of Texas and Louisiana:



Hope everyone in the affected areas remains safe and that the tornado chance won't be upgraded any further!
According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908.


Simply impossible, I can not imagine this ever, ever happening.
seems plausible.....

out of curiosity how did it (earth) cool back down?

Quoting 11. RobertWC:

Now a team of researchers from Canada, Italy, Germany and the US say they have discovered what happened and that their findings have %u201Can important lesson for humanity%u201D in how we deal with current global warming.

According to a paper published in the journal Palaeoworld, volcanic eruptions pumped large amounts of carbon dioxide into the air, causing average temperatures to rise by eight to 11%uFFFDC.

This melted vast amounts of methane that had been trapped in the permafrost and sea floor, causing temperatures to soar even further to levels %u201Clethal to most life on land and in the oceans%u201D.


Link
Bob and Jeff, thanks for the great article. We've been watching this event unfold from Australia, together with the larger El Niño potential for later this year.

The strong model consensus for warming in the central Pacific as the year goes on seems to be tied to reduced trade winds as a result of the diminished east to west temperature gradient in the eastern Pacific, rather than the more traditional Kelvin waves from the west. Having not seen anything like this before, it's hard to know whether this is plausible or not.
New Orleans, LA WFO – Visible
Enhanced Overlay Loop

click image for loop



Future Debby/91P to become a major?

The low over the Texas panhandle is now starting to jog to the NE; essentially causing a slow moving training line effect.............Gonna take quite a while for the squall line to move East ; it's been in the vicinity of Dallas (from West to East) in the South end for about 5 hours now.



Just posted on the Science Mag site; the enemies of climate change mitigation are out in force this week:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/clim ate-skeptics-gather-call-killing-epas-finding-carb on-dioxide-endangers-public

The most important message to send the Trump administration and Capitol Hill right now: The 2009 finding that carbon dioxide endangers public health "must go."

Advisers to the Trump administration's transition team at U.S. EPA and other long-established climate contrarians repeated that mantra for the past 36 hours at the Heartland Institute's 12th annual International Conference on Climate Change."You need to contact your members of Congress, and you need to make noise and — particularly the scientists here — that the endangerment finding needs to be reopened," said Myron Ebell, director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Competitive Enterprise Institute and former head of President Trump's EPA transition team.

"President Trump said that he would do it," Ebell told the crowd, after listing about a dozen Trump campaign promises related to energy. Ebell also explained some of the hurdles he believes are holding Trump back, including a shortage of staff in his personnel office.

Representative Lamar Smith (R–TX) rarely expresses his true feelings in public. But speaking yesterday to a like-minded crowd of climate change doubters and skeptics, the chairman of the science committee in the U.S. House of Representatives acknowledged that the committee is now a tool to advance his political agenda rather than a forum to examine important issues facing the U.S. research community.

“Next week we’re going to have a hearing on our favorite subject of climate change and also on the scientific method, which has been repeatedly ignored by the so-called self-professed climate scientists,” Smith told the Heartland Institute’s 12th annual conference on climate change in Washington, D.C. The audience cheered loudly as Smith read the names of three witnesses—climate scientist Judith Curry, who recently retired from the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta; policy specialist Roger Pielke, Jr. of the University of Colorado in Boulder; and John Christy, a professor of earth system science at the University of Alabama in Huntsville—he expects to support his view that climate change is a politically driven fabrication and that taking steps to mitigate its impact will harm the U.S. economy.



Trumpcare Bill is pulled from the floor vote. Dead. Ryan to Trump "we don't have the vote's"

Womp wahhhhh'....

Mesoscale Discussion 0318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Areas affected...Eastern/southeastern KS...northeastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241900Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours. Some of these storms will be capable of hail and/or
damaging wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored closely for
possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a dryline moving
eastward across central KS, roughly extending from CNK southward to
very near WLD and continuing southward through central OK. Recent
radar and satellite imagery have shown attempts at more robust
convection along the dryline over north-central OK (Kay, Pawnee, and
Osage counties) and far south-central KS (Cowley and Butler
counties). However, updrafts have remained weak thus far, likely a
result of warm mid-level temperatures and subsequent weak
instability.

Low-level moisture will continue to gradually increase ahead of the
dryline with recent satellite imagery also suggesting there will be
enough clearing for modest diurnal heating. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as the forcing for ascent provide by the dryline
and approaching upper low interact with this more unstable
environment. Shear profiles are supportive of rotating storms with
the cool temperatures aloft suggesting the threat for some severe
hail. A couple damaging wind gusts are also possible, particularly
with any well-developed thunderstorms clusters. Trends across the
region will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/24/2017
In terms of the rain issue in Peru here is the current global precip over the past 24 hours............No relief for them at the moment.


Mesoscale Discussion 0317
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central and eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241848Z - 242115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually strengthen this afternoon
across central/eastern Texas, with an attendant threat for strong
wind gusts and a few instances of severe hail. Towards mid/late
evening, the tornado threat will likely increase as storms approach
the Sabine Valley. As such, a watch could be needed in the next 1-2
hours, with a tornado watch more likely this evening.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic data depict slowly organizing bands
of convection near/east of the I-35 corridor early this afternoon.
Convective intensity at present is quite marginal, as considerable
cloud cover has limited surface heating/destabilization. However,
stronger forcing for ascent will overspread richer moisture farther
east (evident in low-level cloud streets in visible imagery) over
the next several hours. As mid-level lapse rates steepen, this
thermodynamic profile should support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
across parts of the discussion area. In turn, convection is forecast
to intensify through the afternoon and into the evening hours.

Considerable large-scale ascent and more meridional flow aloft with
northward extent may maintain more of a linear structure, favoring
primarily damaging winds initially. In turn, convective trends are
being monitored for a possible watch this afternoon, with the
probability of issuance around 60%. By mid evening, low-level
storm-relative helicity should increase substantially, in response
to a strengthening low-level jet across east Texas. Moreover, richer
low-level moisture will continue to stream north, with surface dew
points reaching the mid/upper 60s. This low-level
thermodynamic/kinematic environment will favor an increasing tornado
threat with any line-embedded and/or semi-discrete cells.
Additionally, more discrete convection will be capable of severe
hail, considering favorable mid-level shear and sufficient buoyancy.
A Tornado Watch will likely be needed across this region by
early/mid evening.

..Picca/Guyer.. 03/24/2017


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
Quoting 19. chrisdscane:

According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908.


Simply impossible, I can not imagine this ever, ever happening.


Well, we had a Hurricane in January last year, so, we may never know.
From TVNZ:

Video: Amazing time-lapse footage of Southern Lights taken from inaugural commercial sightseeing flight

Air New Zealand took a lucky group of travellers on a flight south overnight so they could see the Southern Lights.



Also: YouTube: Passengers buzzing after inaugural Southern Lights flight

Stunning images were taken when 130 astronomy buffs caught the first commercial flight to see the Aurora Australias last night.
Trump fails, no vote on Trumpcare, ObamaCare remains....
My sweet corn garden is done today. Sown.The week of the Spring equinox is behind me.

100 days till Harvest now.

May the Sky Ghosts be generous and mild in temper.

Image by wunder photographer megaloo. My all time favorite wu photo.

Quoting 20. 19N81W:

seems plausible.....

out of curiosity how did it (earth) cool back down?



the traps stopped erupting then cooled and harden
methane began to break down and a natural cleansing of the carbon from atmosphere began
as levels dropped it cooled much faster
because ocean currents shut down
from stagnant water warming
that occurred during all of the events
the waters slowly cooled the circulations began again
then returned to a more suitable life support system
in the water and eventually land as well

but that's just a guess
The peak of the last global warming phase was about 10,000 years ago, then the Earth was headed back towards a natural cooling cycle, until global Co2 emissions shot through the roof with pervasive fossil burning which has now plunged the Earth into a very rapid and accelerated warming phase. It ain't rocket science at this point unless you are in the pocket of the global fossil fuel industry.................................

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/19052016 /global-co2-emissions-still-accelerating-noaa-gree nhouse-gas-index

The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is not just rising, it's accelerating, and another potent greenhouse gas, methane showed a big spike last year, according to the latest annual greenhouse gas indexreleased by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

CO2 emissions totaled between 35 and 40 billion tons in 2015, according to several agencies. Some of that is absorbed by forests and oceans, but those natural systems are being overwhelmed by the sheer volume of new CO2. As a result, the inventory shows, the average global concentration increased to 399 parts per million in 2015, a record jump of almost 3 ppm from the year before.

Methane levels jumped 11 parts per billion from 2014 to 2015, nearly double the rate they were increasing from 2007 to 2013. Methane, and other greenhouse gases like nitrous oxide and tropospheric ozone,  are measured in parts per billion because the concentrations are lower.

"This inventory shows the rate of releases are increasing. It's going completely in the wrong direction, with no sign that the planet as a whole has the problem under control," said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist in the climate analysis section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research who wasn't involved in compiling the inventory.


Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 4h
Impressive trade surge continues across and just west of the Date Line... it has been ongoing for over 1 month now.
Quoting 34. Patrap:

My sweet corn garden is done today. Sown.The week of the Spring equinox is behind me.

100 days till Harvest now.

May the Sky Ghosts be generous and mild in temper.

Image by wunder photographer megaloo. My all time favorite wu photo.




You have WU mail.
Quoting 28. Patrap:


Mesoscale Discussion 0318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Areas affected...Eastern/southeastern KS...northeastern OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 241900Z - 242100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over the
next few hours. Some of these storms will be capable of hail and/or
damaging wind gusts. Convective trends will be monitored closely for
possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a dryline moving
eastward across central KS, roughly extending from CNK southward to
very near WLD and continuing southward through central OK. Recent
radar and satellite imagery have shown attempts at more robust
convection along the dryline over north-central OK (Kay, Pawnee, and
Osage counties) and far south-central KS (Cowley and Butler
counties). However, updrafts have remained weak thus far, likely a
result of warm mid-level temperatures and subsequent weak
instability.

Low-level moisture will continue to gradually increase ahead of the
dryline with recent satellite imagery also suggesting there will be
enough clearing for modest diurnal heating. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop as the forcing for ascent provide by the dryline
and approaching upper low interact with this more unstable
environment. Shear profiles are supportive of rotating storms with
the cool temperatures aloft suggesting the threat for some severe
hail. A couple damaging wind gusts are also possible, particularly
with any well-developed thunderstorms clusters. Trends across the
region will be monitored closely for possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/24/2017


I am a hair's breadth on the right side of where things are predicted to develop. Let's hope it does not waver any. Sunny here in Stillwater, OK with things developing just to the east of me. Whew. Keep your heads down folks in NE OK (and Kansas of course).
Quoting 33. MahFL:

Trump fails, no vote on Trumpcare, ObamaCare remains....


Quoting 20. 19N81W:

seems plausible.....

out of curiosity how did it (earth) cool back down?



Bare in mind it took one hell of a long time for the planet to recover from this , and life was holding on by it's finger nails.

The key to this whole idea is that the Siberian Traps erupted through huge over laying coal deposits . There by super charging the Co2 out put of what was something we can only dream of. The the Traps themselves are some . " 2 million square kilometres (770,000 square miles)—roughly equal to western Europe in land area—and estimates of the original coverage are as high as 7 million square kilometres" . And last some 1 million years.

What is is new about this paper ? This team seems to have found the methane bomb of that time. Much like it takes fission bomb to ignite a fusion bomb .



------------------------------------------------- ----



Carbonate Rocks

1. Carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere by dissolving in water and forming carbonic acid

CO2 + H2O -> H2CO3 (carbonic acid)
2. Carbonic acid is used to weather rocks, yielding bicarbonate ions, other ions, and clays

H2CO3 + H2O + silicate minerals -> HCO3- + cations (Ca++, Fe++, Na+, etc.) + clays
3. Calcium carbonate is precipitated from calcium and bicarbonate ions in seawater by marine organisms like coral

Ca++ + 2HCO3- -> CaCO3 + CO2 + H2O
the carbon is now stored on the seafloor in layers of limestone

The Carbon Cycle and Earth's Climate
36. weathermanwannabe
4:45 PM EDT on March 24, 2017

I hope you will join us over on Disqus. You're a good blogger, and you always have thoughtful posts and outlooks.
Quoting 39. daddyjames:



I am a hair's breadth on the right side of where things are predicted to develop. Let's hope it does not waver any. Sunny here in Stillwater, OK with things developing just to the east of me. Whew. Keep your heads down folks in NE OK (and Kansas of course).

This thing rained mud at my place last night, when the dry line marched by. Wind speeds finally slowing the last 3 hours. Clear air returning after 36 hour "brown out" at 40 mph. It's a nasty Low, good thing it lacked that energy input off the GOM.
Quoting 42. aquak9:

36. weathermanwannabe
4:45 PM EDT on March 24, 2017

I hope you will join us over on Disqus. You're a good blogger, and you always have thoughtful posts and outlooks.


I am going to sign up on Monday; new territory for me...........I still use my AOL account from 25 years ago as my personal e-mail and my I-Phone IS 5 years old now (and outdated according to my family)............Lol.
@ 44 - ok, if you need any help, please come to my blog here, or the discussion at Disqus. My name is the same at both places.

NOT trying to spam or anything- just want EVERYONE to know that there is a place to go and MANY folks are already dipping their toes in the water. I just worry about the folks who don't post often, like IKE and Stormjunkie. I hope they can find us when the blogs are gone.

(just trying to preserve the community)
Quoting 44. weathermanwannabe:



I am going to sign up on Monday; new territory for me...........I still use my AOL account from 25 years ago as my personal e-mail and my I-Phone IS 5 years old now (and outdated according to my family)............Lol.


you got to upgrade to a tablet its all the rage lol

lots of places to go we will all see each other here there everywhere

its the world wide web
Quoting 45. aquak9:

@ 44 - ok, if you need any help, please come to my blog here, or the discussion at Disqus. My name is the same at both places.

NOT trying to spam or anything- just want EVERYONE to know that there is a place to go and MANY folks are already dipping their toes in the water. I just worry about the folks who don't post often, like IKE and Stormjunkie. I hope they can find us when the blogs are gone.

(just trying to preserve the community)
its all good puppy no worries trust me when I say that
Quoting 47. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



you got to upgrade to a tablet its all the rage lol

lots of places to go we will all see each other here there everywhere

its the world wide web


My youngest will be 16 next month and we are getting her a tablet; my wife watches TV in bed on her tablet; and I watch old TV shows on the "over the air" TV in the Mancave..............I am waaaaaay behind the personal technology curve. My Cousin, who I saw last weekend, is also a computer geek, just got licensed by the FAA as a drone pilot, and he was showing me all his flying apps on his phone............It's a new world out there Bro.

When I do sign up for Discus I am shortening the name to WXManWannabe...............
hahaha hi keeper
I got to see what you REALLY look like, hahaha

yeah it's gonna be a ride but it's all good.
Everyone have a great and safe weather weekend and watch out for the frontal passage later this evening:  See Yall on Monday.




Quoting 20. 19N81W:

seems plausible.....


What I find interesting about this new paper is the chain of events. They are working on older science.

First the The Carboniferous Period had to run from about 359.2 to 299 million years ago. Fixing a mind blowing amount of carbon in the ground.
Then the Siberian Traps ran for about a million years. Dumping a lot of that stored carbon back into the system in the bargain.
That warmed the system enough to break down the methane hydrates buried on the seafloor. By just enough . That released methane's 23 multiplier back into the system.

Then system crashed in the "Great Dying" .

The whole thing reminds of plane crash experts talking about a chain of events. And the Laws of Physics, and Biology are still in force.

seems plausible.....
Quoting 49. weathermanwannabe:



My youngest will be 16 next month and we are getting her a tablet; my wife watches TV in bed on her tablet; and I watch old TV shows on the "over the air" TV in the Mancave..............I am waaaaaay behind the personal technology curve. My Cousin, who I saw last weekend, is also a computer geek, just got licensed by the FAA as a drone pilot, and he was showing me all his flying apps on his phone............It's a new world out there Bro.

When I do sign up for Discus I am shortening the name to WXManWannabe...............


ya tech world has taken off
as for the name thing looks good to me
I am having fun with the names on disgus for now
once we go there for good I too am shortening my name to GateKeeper
my wunderground name will go with the blogs here and be retired
To this whole nashing of teeth , rending of cloth, and rolling in ashes ....................

I quote an old line from the movies :

"We keep alive to serve this ship, so roll well and live"

Ben Hur 1956
last vis = large area just north of hispanola and P. Rico bears watching
Quoting 27. Patrap:

Trumpcare Bill is pulled from the floor vote. Dead. Ryan to Trump "we don't have the vote's"

Womp wahhhhh'....

Quoting 56. MontanaZephyr:

Your Senate working hard for you:

US Senate votes 50-48 to do away with broadband privacy rules; let ISPs and telecoms to sell your internet history



your a little late on the news with that
dang watching a possible disturbance and its not even May yet. hold on its not even April yet.
April showers?
Nature ................

Yesterday, the CBS evening news reported that poorly educated, middle aged, white males were dying earlier, than everyone else in their bracket.

What do they have in common with the fools that join ISIS ? Or the Luddites that threw their wooden shoes into the machines of the industrial revolution ? Or the monarch butterflies ?

Change.
When we tamed the dog , or found fire, it took a very long time. We killed taxi cabs in 6 years.

When change, meets velocity . Little can survive . Monarch butterflies, Luddites, Elephants, Jihadis, or poorly educated white males.

"We keep alive to serve this ship, so roll well and live"

Quoting 56. MontanaZephyr:

Your Senate working hard for you:

US Senate votes 50-48 to do away with broadband privacy rules; let ISPs and telecoms to sell your internet history


The alligators are running the swamp.
Just trying to make point tonight , the world now is so fast , it runs through every one's fingers.
And if one fails to understand the difference between the Dakota Access Pipeline , and the Keystone Pipeline.

I have a flooded condo in Miami I want to sell you.

The GEFS ensembles look fairly bullish on developing Subtropical Storm Arlene.
From Canada to Siberia, Permafrost Thaw Produces ‘Hell’s Mouth’ Craters, Sinking Lands, and 7,000 Methane Pockets Waiting to Blow
In places like Canada and Siberia, a memory of ice ages long past is locked away in the very soil. There, dig about three feet down, and you’ll encounter a layer of frozen earth running from 200 feet to almost a mile deep in some places. It’s like a great glacier secreted away underground and covering about 19 million square kilometers of the Northern Hemisphere. We call this frozen ground permafrost.

Link
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SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 558 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 510 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 508 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 449 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
Quoting 63. RobertWC:



The alligators are running the swamp.


More like the slime molds.
Quoting 67. HurricaneFan:

The GEFS ensembles look fairly bullish on developing Subtropical Storm Arlene.

If we get this storm and another one in May it will be truly something to have two back to back hurricane seasons with two pre-season storms before the official start.This is a nice warm up for the actual start of the season which is now almost two months away.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 80
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
705 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Texas

* Effective this Friday night from 705 PM until Midnight CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to slowly increase in coverage
and intensity while spreading eastward early tonight across
southeast Texas. The storm environment will support a risk for
supercells capable of producing a couple of tornadoes, as well as
isolated damaging winds and large hail. There will be some
potential for the storms to grow into a larger band tonight, with a
continued risk of damaging winds.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Lufkin TX to 80
miles south southwest of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 79...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.

...Thompson
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SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 713 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 703 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 702 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 657 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017



000
FXUS64 KEWX 242343 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
643 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR conditions prevail across all terminals late this afternoon and
are expected to continue through the TAF period. Isolated TSRA is
ongoing across the Texas Coastal Plains towards Houston. This
activity will shift northeast through the early evening hours into
East Texas. Surface winds remain gusty from the south and west for
KDRT/KAUS at 15-20 knots. These winds will subside next few hours to
sustained winds near or less than 10 knots from the west. Winds will
then shift more northerly through early to mid morning Saturday as a
dry front moves through the region. Low ceilings are likely to return
by Sunday morning however as moisture returns to the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Pacific front/dry line was near the I-35 corridor mid afternoon.
Dry slotting has occurred across the southern I-35 corridor. Farther
northeast aircraft soundings near AUS indicate the mid level cap
weakening. There is still a window through late afternoon and early
evening where a strong to marginally severe storm or two could form
across the EWX CWA near and east of U.S. 77. However the better
threat this afternoon and into tonight will be northeast of the area.
A secondary push/front will move into the area after midnight.
The latest few HRRR runs were showing the possibility of convection
developing along this boundary overnight across the far eastern CWA.
In addition, with the initial front/dry line slowing down there will
be a window for fog late tonight across the far southeast counties
before the secondary push of drier air arrives. Sunny and dry on
Saturday.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
A progressive pattern will occur through the upcoming week. On
Sunday a weak shortwave will pass through the Southern Plains. A warm
front looks to come back into the CWA Sunday morning and then a dryline
gets dragged east into the western CWA Sunday afternoon. This will
lead to a warm day, especially across the southwest CWA where highs
could climb into the mid 90s. Upper 80s to low 90s are expected
elsewhere. A weak cold front looks to enter the area Monday and
results in highs a degree or two cooler.

Models are then consistent with an upper level low digging into the
Four Corners Tuesday and a rapid moisture return taking place across
South Central Texas ahead of it on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are possible during the day on Tuesday, favoring
central and western areas of the CWA. This upper level low is
forecast to dig slightly farther south into Texas than the current
system, coming out into West Central Texas Wednesday morning.

South Central Texas becomes placed in a favorable location Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning, with a diffluent flow aloft between
the upper level low to the northwest and sub-tropical jet streak
just to the south. As large scale ascent spreads into the area late
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning both the GFS and ECMWF are
indicating showers and storms increasing in coverage, especially
across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor Tuesday night and along and
east of I-35 Wednesday morning. There are hints that a heavier band
of rainfall could occur near and east of I-35. Ingredients may come
into play for locally heavy rainfall but too soon to determine exact
amounts and locations. There could also be a threat for severe storms
as an organized convective complex may try and develop.

The area looks to eventually get dry slotted Wednesday afternoon from
west to east. GFS is a little more robust with mid level moisture
wrapping around the upper level low Wednesday night and Thursday and
is generating some QPF. Have retained some low pops across the
northeast half of the CWA during this time.

Dry conditions on Friday and then both the GFS and ECMWF indicate
another upper level system possibly impacting the CWA just beyond
Day 7.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds have been a little slow to respond but in the past hour have
begun to see winds increasing across the western Hill Country and
Edwards Plateau. There will be a window now though sunset where
occasional wind gusts to around 25 mph could occur across Edwards and
Val Verde Counties and possible as far south as Kinney County. RH
values are currently bottoming out around 8-15 percent and should the
winds become gusty this will result in a critical fire danger. Will
allow the Red Flag Warning to remain in place until 7 PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 55 81 58 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 51 81 55 87 62 / 0 0 0 10 20
New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 82 56 87 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
Burnet Muni Airport 50 78 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 10 20
Del Rio Intl Airport 53 84 57 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 52 79 55 86 61 / 0 0 0 10 20
Hondo Muni Airport 49 86 56 90 59 / 0 0 0 - 10
San Marcos Muni Airport 53 82 56 87 63 / 0 0 0 10 10
La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 80 57 86 66 / 20 - 0 10 20
San Antonio Intl Airport 53 84 58 88 62 / 0 0 0 10 10
Stinson Muni Airport 53 83 58 88 62 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...LH
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams




This is an HRRR sounding from roughly where the storm is.

an hour(ish) old vis sat shot of the tight, beautiful low spinning energy every which way. crazy structure, and the whole things not even in the shot!




Tornado Warning
Issued: 8:03 PM CDT Mar. 24, 2017 – National Weather Service


The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
south central Trinity County in southeastern Texas...
northwestern Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
northwestern San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
west central Polk County in southeastern Texas...
southeastern Walker County in southeastern Texas...

* until 845 PM CDT.

* At 802 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Huntsville State Park, or 9 miles southwest of
Huntsville, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Hazard... tornado and quarter size hail.

Source... radar indicated rotation.

Impact... flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
Huntsville, New Waverly, point blank, Riverside, Sebastopol,
Huntsville State Park and Oakhurst.

Link
The long, bony, middle finger of Galileo Galilei kept enshrined at the Florence History of Science Museum. Is it extended upward showing his opinion of his detractors?

Late good night hello from Germany, first with many thanks for the excellent new blog entry about the terrible floods in Peru!

I spent quite a time today with organizing my new workstation, and I'm not done yet. So not much blogging today.

Here the latest from Australia, where "Debbie" has been born, and it looks like to become a big girl:
Cyclone Debbie could hit north Queensland as category five, Bureau of Meteorology warns
ABC, updated 21 minutes ago
A cyclone off northern Queensland could intensify to category five by the time it crosses the coast somewhere between Cardwell and Bowen, near Townsville, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned. ...

Tornado Warning
Issued: 8:37 PM CDT Mar. 24, 2017 – National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
southeastern Marion County in northeastern Texas...
northeastern Harrison County in northeastern Texas...

* until 900 PM CDT

* at 837 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Marshall, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Link

Some nasty looking storms on radar.
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TORNADO WARNING     HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 848 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
TORNADO WARNING     SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 837 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
855 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
ANGELINA COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN SAN AUGUSTINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 854 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DIBOLL,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUFKIN, NACOGDOCHES, DIBOLL, HUDSON, HUNTINGTON, SAN AUGUSTINE,
MELROSE, WODEN, ETOILE, MARTINSVILLE, BURKE, APPLEBY, CHIRENO, OAK
RIDGE, DENNING, SHAWNEE, CLAWSON, CENTRAL, REDLAND AND HOMER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY, IF ONE IS SPOTTED, ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.



A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR EASTERN
TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3110 9465 3109 9467 3111 9472 3111 9475
3115 9485 3123 9486 3126 9490 3128 9488
3130 9490 3132 9490 3134 9493 3179 9463
3167 9440 3166 9440 3165 9437 3151 9411
3108 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 226DEG 55KT 3111 9481

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH



06

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
900 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN BOSSIER PARISH IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
EASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT  
 
* AT 859 PM CDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SMITHLAND TO NEAR KARNACK TO NEAR WASKOM TO 6  
MILES NORTH OF ELYSIAN FIELDS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
SHREVEPORT, BOSSIER CITY, VIVIAN, HAUGHTON, GREENWOOD, BLANCHARD,  
WASKOM, BENTON, OIL CITY, MOORINGSPORT, HOSSTON, BELCHER, IDA,  
GILLIAM, EASTWOOD, SMITHLAND, KARNACK, FOSTERS, GRAY AND  
SCOTTSVILLE.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3301 9377 3246 9348 3238 9425 3290 9428  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 233DEG 28KT 3276 9418 3266 9410 3256 9408 3252  
9411 3246 9421  
 
TORNADO...POSSIBLE  
HAIL...<.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
CN  
 
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Main Text Page

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SVR T-STORM WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 916 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 903 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
College of DuPage Meteorology
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SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 932 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX - KHGX 931 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 925 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 82
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
920 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Parts of west central and northwest Louisiana
East central Texas

* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 920 PM
until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of severe thunderstorms will continue to spread
northeastward from east Texas into Louisiana. This area will be on
the northern edge of the storm environment that will be more
favorable for supercells, possibly with a couple of tornadoes.
Otherwise, damaging winds and isolated large hail can be expected
with the more intense storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of
Natchitoches LA to 65 miles west southwest of Natchitoches LA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 80...WW 81...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Thompson
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
821 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Sounding discussion...
an atmosphere more conducive for convective weather is beginning
to take shape. Cooling in the sub 6km layer has increased
instability quite a bit with MLCAPE up to 500 j/kg. Lapse rates in
general have increased to near 7c in the lowest levels. Both speed
and directional shear are on the increase as backing winds are
around 30 knots near the surface with 40-50kt SW winds in the mid
levels. Dual inversions, near 850mb and 550mb, are part of the
reason for limited convection at this time.

Meffer
&&

Previous discussion... /issued 345 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

Synopsis...
latest upper air and infrared satellite imagery showed a low over the
Texas Panhandle with dry air entrainment into the south and east
side of the low. In addition, ahead of the leading edge dry air
cooler cloud tops from convection was over north central Texas to
southwest Missouri. Isotach analysis at 250mb revealed a 110 to
120 jet Max at the base and front side of the low or over West
Texas to south central Oklahoma.

Surface analysis showed a 1003mb over Texas Panhandle off The
Caprock with a tight pressure gradient over Red River valley and
mid and lower Mississippi. South to southeast flow was present
across the same area.

Deep surface low will continue to move east southeast along the
Red River valley through tonight. Surface winds are expected to
weaken this evening but remaining breezy overnight. Because the
system is vertically stacked with occlusion some slowing east will
likely occur through Saturday. Ergo, the timing of the initial
line of convection will enter the extreme west zones after
midnight. Low level southeast to south flow and southwest flow
aloft will increase 0-3km helicity values 250 to 400 M/S later this
evening, higher values across the northwest and north zones.
Isolated to scattered storms that do develop will have a chance to
yield rotating storms and possibly a tornado or two with the
initial convection, mainly across the northwest parts of the
forecast. Cape values do increase with values of 700 j/kg across
southern Mississippi to 1500 j/kg along the Louisiana.

With the upper level disturbance rotating southeast through the
forecast area overnight, 500mb temps will dip to -17f across
northwest zones early Saturday and spread east through Saturday.
As a result, a few to several storms may contain hail. As for
now, damaging winds and secondary threat of tornado or two may
occur early ahead and along the squall late tonight into early
Saturday morning. Hail storms and possibly damaging winds are
possible in scattered to numerous storms Saturday morning through
Saturday afternoon.

While no frontal passage is expected with the storm system, mid
moisture will be displaced east and precipitable water values
decreasing to 0.75 to 1 inch across the forecast area on Sunday.
Quoting 91. Patrap:




That is a big fargin' swirl. Lots of rain for QLD.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBJnnzxhGbw
I found this on the NHC sit what dos it mean ?

2) Issuance of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclones
Pending final NWS approval, NHC will in 2017 have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening “potential tropical cyclones”, NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones.
Potential tropical cyclones will share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical and subtropical depressions, with depressions and potential tropical cyclones being numbered from a single list (e.g., “One”, “Two”, “Three”, ..., “Twenty-Three”, etc.). The assigned number will always match the total number of systems (tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones, or potential tropical cyclones) that have occurred within that basin during the season. For example, if three systems requiring advisories have already formed within a basin in a given year, the next land-threatening disturbance would be designated “Potential Tropical Cyclone Four”. If a potential tropical cyclone becomes a tropical depression, its numerical designation remains the same (i.e., Potential Tropical Cyclone Four becomes Tropical Depression Four).
Potential tropical cyclone advisory packages (i.e., the Public Advisory, Forecast/Advisory, Discussion, Wind Speed Probability Product
♫ I really don't know what you mean
Seems like salvation comes only in our dreams
I feel my hatred grow all the more extreme
can this world really be as sad as it seems?

there's nothing left for me to hide
I lost my ignorance, security and pride
I'm all alone in a world you must despise
I believed the promises, your promises and lies

Terrible lie
Terrible lie ♫
00z GFS stronger.
Quoting 106. thetwilightzone:

I found this on the NHC sit what dos it mean ?

2) Issuance of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclones
Pending final NWS approval, NHC will in 2017 have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening “potential tropical cyclones”, NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones.
Potential tropical cyclones will share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical and subtropical depressions, with depressions and potential tropical cyclones being numbered from a single list (e.g., “One”, “Two”, “Three”, ..., “Twenty-Three”, etc.). The assigned number will always match the total number of systems (tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones, or potential tropical cyclones) that have occurred within that basin during the season. For example, if three systems requiring advisories have already formed within a basin in a given year, the next land-threatening disturbance would be designated “Potential Tropical Cyclone Four”. If a potential tropical cyclone becomes a tropical depression, its numerical designation remains the same (i.e., Potential Tropical Cyclone Four becomes Tropical Depression Four).
Potential tropical cyclone advisory packages (i.e., the Public Advisory, Forecast/Advisory, Discussion, Wind Speed Probability Product

It means that this season NHC is going to start issuing advisories on high-chance invests that are a threat to land. However I doubt NHC will issue any Potential TC advisories on the system we are watching now because it has not approved by the National Weather Service.
carib boy and other islanders might get some moisture from our atlantic disturbance
i dont see nothing stopping debbie from reaching major cyclone status. do you?
Good morning with a quick look at Australia's Debbie.

From the lateste advisory:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7
Issued at 7:50 pm EST on Saturday 25 March 2017
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

More see Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.





Splendid spring weather in Germany. I'm out for farmer's market ...
70% chance for future system north of Hispanola.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 10:44 pm EST on Saturday 25 March 2017
Headline:
Tropical Cyclone Debbie has intensified to a category 2 cyclone.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Ayr to St Lawrence including Bowen, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone
remaining coastal areas from Cairns to Ayr including Innisfail and Townsville, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 10:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 100 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 140 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 55 kilometres of 17.7 degrees South 151.9 degrees East, estimated to be 560 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and 520 kilometres east northeast of Ayr.

Movement: slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Debbie is currently intensifying, and is now a category 2 cyclone. The system remains slow moving at the present time. It is expected to adopt a steady west-southwest track later tonight, which will continue for the next few days. Conditions will remain favourable for the cyclone to develop further before landfall, which will likely be between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:
GALES are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Ayr and Mackay on Sunday afternoon or evening, and could extend further south to St Lawrence on Sunday night. GALES could extend further north to coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr on Monday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h are expected to develop about the exposed coast and islands between Lucinda and Mackay on Monday afternoon or evening.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of Tropical Cyclone Debbie is expected to cross the coast between Townsville and Proserpine on Tuesday morning, most likely as a CATEGORY 4 tropical cyclone, with wind gusts up to 260 km/h near the centre.

Abnormally high tides are expected to occur between at least Lucinda and Mackay as the cyclone approaches the coast. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding are expected to develop about parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas late on Sunday and continue through Monday and Tuesday. Major river flooding may also develop over a broad area next week and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Cairns and Gladstone, extending inland to the eastern Gulf River catchments.

Recommended Action:
Recommended Action:

- People between Ayr and St Lawrence should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- People in coastal areas between Cairns and Ayr, and inland areas north and east of Charters Towers and Mount Coolon, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster

Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the State Emergency Service

(SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen

trees on buildings or roof damage)

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 am AEST Sunday 26 March.





TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8

Issued at 10:44 pm EST on Saturday 25 March 2017

Tropical Cyclone Debbie has intensified to a category 2 cyclone.




From ABC News:

[...]

BOM Queensland regional director Bruce Gunn said a degree of uncertainty remained in how the system would behave.

"At the moment our timing is thinking the crossing of the coast would be some time around Monday night or into Tuesday, but it's still a very uncertain situation," Mr Gunn said.

"If the cyclone were to speed up we could feel impacts on the coast as early as Sunday night.

"Alternatively it could slow down, but the problem with that is the longer time over the warm waters of the Coral Sea could see it intensify to a category five, I can't rule that out.

But at the moment, our estimate is for a category four system to impact the coast with the centre crossing somewhere between Cardwell and Bowen."

[...]
On Debbie: I'm not qualified to outweigh official sources. Please see the previous comments @115 and @116 for updates from official sources, and if you are in the area expected to experience any effects of Debbie, please exercise extreme caution.

However, in my opinion, there is a significant possibility that this storm will continue to intensify as it approaches landfall, including up to the moment it makes landfall and even after it makes landfall, and not significantly diminish in intensity until it is well inland. If you overestimate the danger of this storm and get out of its way, you will be able to return home and laugh at me. If you underestimate this storm, you may not be able to come back to this site and laugh at me. Be safe, evacuate!

Please continue to consult your official sources for Debbie warnings and advisories.
re: 105. RobertWC:

"Trouble coming every day" I haven't heard that song in forty years! What made you think of it? :-J
Yesterday we broke a record when the temperature reached 81° F. Previous record for that day was 78°. Chicagoland.
Current total precipital water loop (MIMIC) for the US and the Atl system:



Current total precipital water loop (MIMIC) for Australia with Debbie:



Source TPW 2 at CIMSS. Looks like that MIMIC for tropical cyclones isn't available at present.
I'm finally back to repost my question from the 21st, hoping for additional responses. Thanks to several (elioe, ccRKampen, RunningTrauma, caneFreeCR, wxwannabe) for thoughtful answers on that date.

So, where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks
Here we go!
Quoting 106. thetwilightzone:

I found this on the NHC sit what dos it mean ?

2) Issuance of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclones
Pending final NWS approval, NHC will in 2017 have the option to issue advisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous longstanding NWS policy, it has not been permitted to issue a hurricane or tropical storm watch or warning until after a tropical cyclone had formed. Advances in forecasting over the past decade or so, however, now allow the confident prediction of tropical cyclone impacts while these systems are still in the developmental stage. For these land-threatening %u201Cpotential tropical cyclones%u201D, NHC will now issue the full suite of text, graphical, and watch/warning products that previously has only been issued for ongoing tropical cyclones.
Potential tropical cyclones will share the naming conventions currently in place for tropical and subtropical depressions, with depressions and potential tropical cyclones being numbered from a single list (e.g., %u201COne%u201D, %u201CTwo%u201D, %u201CThree%u201D, ..., %u201CTwenty-Three%u201D, etc.). The assigned number will always match the total number of systems (tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones, or potential tropical cyclones) that have occurred within that basin during the season. For example, if three systems requiring advisories have already formed within a basin in a given year, the next land-threatening disturbance would be designated %u201CPotential Tropical Cyclone Four%u201D. If a potential tropical cyclone becomes a tropical depression, its numerical designation remains the same (i.e., Potential Tropical Cyclone Four becomes Tropical Depression Four).
Potential tropical cyclone advisory packages (i.e., the Public Advisory, Forecast/Advisory, Discussion, Wind Speed Probability Product


The first part means that they can issue advisories for systems that could potentially bring tropical storm/hurricane conditions to an area within 48 hours but technically do not meet the definition of a tropical cyclone at the time the advisories are issued. This is an attempt to better communicate what may be experienced (like for example the tropical storm that "formed" directly over Florida last year).
The second part seems to indicate that they will drop the recycling of numbers that was in practice before, where they would designate an invest 91L, then recycle those numbers. Now they will use a single list of numbers that will match the total number of systems that advisories are issued for. So, there will be no more returning back to 91L - it will simply be 1 to what ever the total number of systems were designated.

Edit: I was incorrect in my interpretation of the second part. The term advisories means those issued regarding the impact of a land-falling storm, and not the advisories issued on invests. So, the invest system appears to remain as it was.
Quoting 121. ToesInTheWater:

I'm finally back to repost my question from the 21st, hoping for additional responses. Thanks to several (elioe, ccRKampen, RunningTrauma, caneFreeCR, wxwannabe) for thoughtful answers on that date.

So, where would you move in the world, if you could move anywhere and start over, that would be a relatively "safe" and comfortably "protected" place from the extremes of Climate 2.0? If you had maybe 30 years left on earth, let's say.
I really am hoping for serious answers and advice! Thanks


That's pretty challenging to answer. For a period of time we may see extremes - highly variable conditions - that had not existed before. Its not like there will be a smooth transition to these rapidly changing conditions. And weather patterns of the past would not provide any information to be able to determine "where" would be considered "safe".
In terms of areas able to support larger populations, that will depend largely on precipitation patterns and the existing infrastructure designed around known (historical) weather and climate patterns allowing for the ability to deal withstand those known weather patterns. If we continue to experience broad large scale shifts in those patterns, then the existing infrastructure will not provide for appropriate safety for not previously experienced weather events and their effects of the local geography, or the ability to manage water resources appropriately to support that population.
This is global climate change.
The effect will be global, and will be on a broader scale than we can imagine. The initial signs are already present. We already have a visceral reaction to immigration from certain regions where people are fleeing - looking for a safe place to live.
If you think global climate change will not be accompanied by increased political instability, look at what is currently occurring. This is just the tip of the iceberg (no pun intended).
125. elioe
Quoting 123. daddyjames:


IIRC, the system that raised the need to update products was Bill of 2015. It was given high chance of development at2 p.m. Jun 14 (EDT), advisories began at 10 p.m. Jun 15 (CDT). Within six hours of that, tropical storm force winds reached coastline, and landfall occurred on 11:45 a.m. Jun 16 (CDT). So, if advisories had been issued on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (future Bill) when given high chance of cyclogenesis (rather, three hours later to match normal advisory cycle), tropical storm warning could have been issued 30 - 36 hours in advance, rather than 0 - 6 hours.

And I don't think that invest numbering will cease or change. Those would still be used like before, as long as a system has low or medium chance of formation, or doesn't threaten land.
Quoting 125. elioe:



IIRC, the system that raised the need to update products was Bill of 2015. It was given high chance of development at2 p.m. Jun 14 (EDT), advisories began at 10 p.m. Jun 15 (CDT). Within six hours of that, tropical storm force winds reached coastline, and landfall occurred on 11:45 a.m. Jun 16 (CDT). So, if advisories had been issued on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two (future Bill) when given high chance of cyclogenesis (rather, three hours later to match normal advisory cycle), tropical storm warning could have been issued 30 - 36 hours in advance, rather than 0 - 6 hours.

And I don't think that invest numbering will cease or change. Those would still be used like before, as long as a system has low or medium chance of formation, or doesn't threaten land.


Invest numbering would have to change, I would think. That is an indication that there is a potential for the storm to become a Tropical Cyclone. (See the Edit comment below). They address that in the example provided:

The assigned number will always match the total number of systems (tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones, or potential tropical cyclones) that have occurred within that basin during the season. For example, if three systems requiring advisories have already formed within a basin in a given year, the next land-threatening disturbance would be designated - Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. If a potential tropical cyclone becomes a tropical depression, its numerical designation remains the same (i.e., Potential Tropical Cyclone Four becomes Tropical Depression Four).

Addendum: Of course that "land threatening" part has me a bit confused. In essence, it may be a mixture of the two with the invest designation remaining? That indeed is a little confusing.

Edit: I was incorrect in my interpretation of the second part. The term advisories means those issued regarding the impact of a land-falling storm, and not the advisories issued on invests. So, the invest system appears to remain as it was.
Quoting 123. daddyjames:



The first part means that they can issue advisories for systems that could potentially bring tropical storm/hurricane conditions to an area within 48 hours but technically do not meet the definition of a tropical cyclone at the time the advisories are issued. This is an attempt to better communicate what may be experienced (like for example the tropical storm that "formed" directly over Florida last year).
The second part seems to indicate that they will drop the recycling of numbers that was in practice before, where they would designate an invest 91L, then recycle those numbers. Now they will use a single list of numbers that will match the total number of systems that advisories are issued for. So, there will be no more returning back to 91L - it will simply be 1 to what ever the total number of systems were designated.


They will still recycle invest numbers. If an invest becomes a Potential Tropical Cyclone it would be designated the next number on the cyclone list, similar to how Tropical Depressions are currently numbered.
Quoting 129. nrtiwlnvragn:



They will still recycle invest numbers. If an invest becomes a Potential Tropical Cyclone it would be designated the next number on the cyclone list, similar to how Tropical Depressions are currently numbered.


Do you understand what determines the difference between an invest and a "potential tropical cyclone"? Is this an invest thtat meets a certain probability of forming a tropical cyclone (as described by elioe), or simply an invest that would potentially impact land as a tropical cyclone?
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



Do you understand what determines the difference between an invest and a "potential tropical cyclone"? Is this an invest thtat meets a certain probability of forming a tropical cyclone, or simply an invest that would potentially impact land as a tropical cyclone?


Beginning on or about May 15, 2017 pending final approval, RSMC Miami will have the option to issue watches, warnings, and graphical and textual advisory products for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.

Link
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 1043 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 821 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017

Quoting 118. ChiThom:

re: 105. RobertWC:

"Trouble coming every day" I haven't heard that song in forty years! What made you think of it? :-J


Hey, Tom. Are you old enough to remember this one??

Link
Quoting 131. nrtiwlnvragn:



Beginning on or about May 15, 2017 pending final approval, RSMC Miami will have the option to issue watches, warnings, and graphical and textual advisory products for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.

Link


Ok, I think I understand - it simply is a new "category" in essence. A disturbance that indeed potentially may effect a land area with tropical storm conditions, yet may not meet the criteria to be classified as a tropical/sub-tropical storm. I wonder if they include precipitation along within that criteria? So, would this have allowed advisories to be issued for the "non-tropical" depression that drowned LA last year?

Ok, elioe I understand what you were trying to communicate. I was interpreting "advisories" as those also issued for invests - and not the "advisories" issued for storms threatening land.
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



Do you understand what determines the difference between an invest and a "potential tropical cyclone"? Is this an invest thtat meets a certain probability of forming a tropical cyclone (as described by elioe), or simply an invest that would potentially impact land as a tropical cyclone?


Hey, dj. do you think this decision was the result of flooding in Louisiana this past year? Many people were taken off guard.
Quoting 133. Grothar:



Hey, Tom. Are you old enough to remember this one??

Link


I prefer well versed in the history of music in America as opposed to old. :P
Quoting 135. Grothar:



Hey, dj. do you think this decision was the result of flooding in Louisiana this past year? Many people were taken off guard.


Elioe described maybe what was the impetus - Hurricane Bill? I am wondering if it would have covered the LA event, as well as the one where the tropical cyclone formed well inland in Florida - as technically that does not fit the definition of a tropical cyclone used by the NHC. I believe that they do state that it "forms over water".
Quoting 133. Grothar:



Hey, Tom. Are you old enough to remember this one??

Link


Wow , that was a blast from the past.
Quoting 135. Grothar:



Hey, dj. do you think this decision was the result of flooding in Louisiana this past year? Many people were taken off guard.


The System formed over land so, no.

It added zero ACE to 2016,yet was the worst disaster of the 2016 Season.




Addendum: Louisiana's no-name storm
One other event deserves mention here, even though it's not officially part of the 2016 tropical season: the slow-moving disturbance that dumped colossal amounts of rain on southern Louisiana in mid-August, causing 13 deaths and an estimated $10 - 15 billion in damage. Because surface winds were light and the surface low stayed generally onshore, the system was never declared a tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center. At the same time, for much of its life the storm was a symmetric warm-core low, the same type of structure associated with tropical cyclones. Regardless of its classification, the storm behaved much like other tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes that have taken their time moving through the Gulf Coast region. Some parts of Louisiana recorded more than 20" of rain in 48 hours, which qualifies as a 1-in-1,000 year rainfall event (having a 0.1 percent chance of occurring at a particular location in any given year), according to the NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. The highest rainfall total from the storm was 31.39 in Watson, Louisiana. The storm system carried near-record amounts of atmospheric moisture, drawn from the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic, where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were at near-record levels.
Quoting 136. daddyjames:



I prefer well versed in the history of music in America as opposed to old. :P


Well, if you remember this, you're old! :)
Quoting 141. Grothar:



Well, if you remember this, you're old! :)


Only on the exterior!
Closeup view of low pressure forming north of Hispanola.

Quoting 134. daddyjames:



Ok, I think I understand - it simply is a new "category" in essence. A disturbance that indeed potentially may effect a land area with tropical storm conditions, yet may not meet the criteria to be classified as a tropical/sub-tropical storm. I wonder if they include precipitation along within that criteria? So, would this have allowed advisories to be issued for the "non-tropical" depression that drowned LA last year?

Ok, elioe I understand what you were trying to communicate. I was interpreting "advisories" as those also issued for invests - and not the "advisories" issued for storms threatening land.


Don't know the answer on the rainfall question, from my understanding the disturbance would have to have the potential of becoming a tropical/subtropical cyclone, so organization, center etc.
Quoting 145. nrtiwlnvragn:



Don't know the answer on the rainfall question, from my understanding the disturbance would have to have the potential of becoming a tropical/subtropical cyclone, so organization, center etc.


But from the given example it would almost seem as if the potential to become a tropical depression would also fit this criteria (if indeed it would affect land). I understand the intent - but confused as to the criteria per se.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1114 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHEASTERN WEST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST CENTRAL IBERVILLE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN EAST BATON ROUGE PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1145 AM CDT  
 
* AT 1114 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ADDIS, OR  
NEAR PLAQUEMINE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
BATON ROUGE, DENHAM SPRINGS, PLAQUEMINE, PORT ALLEN, OAK HILLS  
PLACE, ST. GABRIEL, ADDIS, BRUSLY, WESTMINSTER, OLD JEFFERSON,  
MERRYDALE, INNISWOLD, VILLAGE ST. GEORGE, SHENANDOAH, GARDERE,  
BROWNFIELDS AND BATON ROUGE AIRPORT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM  
WINDOWS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3060 9102 3035 9090 3034 9094 3035 9095  
3034 9099 3034 9101 3032 9102 3025 9129  
3042 9138  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 246DEG 22KT 3037 9126  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...<50MPH  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab LA Page

The Nexlab MS Page

Main Text Page

Quoting 135. Grothar:



Hey, dj. do you think this decision was the result of flooding in Louisiana this past year? Many people were taken off guard.


NHC has been looking at it for many years, excerpted text from this presentation.

Watches/Warnings Before Formation?

NHC conducted an in-house
experiment during the 2012
season by issuing Pre-TC watches/warnings

Could take a few years to have
enough cases to evaluate

NHC exploring ways to issue and
communicate pre-TC watches &
warnings
– Through graphical and text TWO?
– Through advisory-like products?
– New products?
150. elioe
Quoting 126. daddyjames:



And actually the invest numbering seems to have nothing to do with NHC. The same kind of rotating 90-99 number system is in every basin. Was it some branch of U.S. Navy that designates invests, or NOAA/SSD? Definitely many of Atlantic invests occur in situations, when they pose no threat to land within 48 hours. I would simply expect, that when in the future NHC designates a Potential Tropical Cyclone, all agencies stop using the invest number (90L,91L,92L...) at that point, and begin using the tropical cyclone number (01L,02L,03L...)

Personally, I think, that using same numbers for tropical cyclones and their precursors is wrong. Not that it would be any matter of significance, just poor feng shui. One alternative could have been to issue those PTC advisories without any numeric designation. But actually my preferred solution was, that NHC would simply begin issuing tropical cyclone watches and warnings for these systems, not issuing system-specific advisories, but including a mention of those watches and warnings in the Tropical Weather Outlook.
Quoting 150. elioe:



And actually the invest numbering seems to have nothing to do with NHC. The same kind of rotating 90-99 number system is in every basin. Was it some branch of U.S. Navy that designates invests, or NOAA/SSD? Definitely many of Atlantic invests occur in situations, when they pose no threat to land within 48 hours. I would simply expect, that when in the future NHC designates a Potential Tropical Cyclone, all agencies stop using the invest number (90L,91L,92L...) at that point, and begin using the tropical cyclone number (01L,02L,03L...)

Personally, I think, that using same numbers for tropical cyclones and their precursors is wrong. Not that it would be any matter of significance, just poor feng shui. One alternative could have been to issue those PTC advisories without any numeric designation. But actually my preferred solution was, that NHC would simply begin issuing tropical cyclone watches and warnings for these systems, not issuing system-specific advisories, but including a mention of those watches and warnings in the Tropical Weather Outlook.


I agree with the "poor feng shui". It seems that the whole "land threatening" section poses a bit of confusion. As you mention, if it does not ever threaten land - but advisories are issued for that "fish storm" then technically it would not be numbered in the way they are referring to.
So now we will have invests, PTCs, TDs, TSs, Hs, and MHs.

Hmm, the debates on the proper classification - whether it is a PTC or TD will be pretty interesting on here this upcoming season.

And if they are going to issue advisories on PTCs for land, why would they not simply issue those advisories on PTCs at sea, as that would be helpful for shipping interests? Or maybe they would be stepping on the toes of the agency that issues that information for sea-faring vessels - or create more confusion in that area.

Although, i fully understand why they are changing this, as it allows issuing of advisories that rapidly organize just before landfall.
Hey, so does this mean we have to change the predictions? Do we have to predict how many PTCs, TSs, and Hs there will be?
Waiting on the NHC to open up their crayon box and draw a yellow X near Hispaniola. Development could occur as soon as 36-48 hours, and numerous experts have mentioned this system, so I'm confused to why the NHC hasn't issued a STWO yet.
154. Ed22
Quoting 144. Patrap:


In the forming states now, Maybe tomorrow could be classified as a Sub- tropical storm Arlene.



Certainly a mixed kettle of fish in regards to ENSO this year.
Quoting 133. Grothar:



Hey, Tom. Are you old enough to remember this one??

Link


But of course! Those lyrics have attained a new meaning now! I was sixteen when that song came out.
157. Ed22
Quoting 153. HurricaneFan:

Waiting on the NHC to open up their crayon box and draw a yellow X near Hispaniola. Development could occur as soon as 36-48 hours, and numerous experts have mentioned this system, so I'm confused to why the NHC hasn't issued a STWO yet.
I'm not surprise, they're just conservative bunch of people thats for sure.
Quoting 148. nrtiwlnvragn:



NHC has been looking at it for many years, excerpted text from this presentation.

Watches/Warnings Before Formation?

NHC conducted an in-house
experiment during the 2012
season by issuing Pre-TC watches/warnings

Could take a few years to have
enough cases to evaluate

NHC exploring ways to issue and
communicate pre-TC watches &
warnings
– Through graphical and text TWO?
– Through advisory-like products?
– New products?



That makes sense. On another note, we all remember watching Sandy when the NHC turned over to the NWS and many people misunderstood and thought the danger was over. Although not exactly in line with the new information, but just another issue that should be addressed.
At last, this helps me a lot to clarify some doubts

"%u201CFor Peru, the pattern mattered for the impacts,%u201D said Takahashi in an email. In 2015-16, he noted, %u201Cthe drying effect of the central Pacific warming dominated over the rainy effect of the coastal warming. That was quite different from what's going on this year, in which the large-scale atmospheric pattern is still La Ni%uFFFDa-ish, which helps the rains associated with the coastal El Ni%uFFFDo.%u201D Takahashi sees some parallels between the current event and another %u201Ccoastal%u201D El Ni%uFFFDo in 1925, which he analyzes in a paper now in review."

In fact, i had researched post II world war events and found no parallels to what it's happening this year, I see we should go back to 1925.

We still have a couple of "broken links" to fix: the relationship with the long persistence of a big HP pressure dome over Northern and Central Chile and the fast melting of Antarctic ice and its influence in the Humboldt Current.
Quoting 141. Grothar:



Well, if you remember this, you're old! :)


I'm not old yet! Time keeps passing, but I stay the same. :-)
Quoting 158. Grothar:



That makes sense. On another note, we all remember watching Sandy when the NHC turned over to the NWS and many people misunderstood and thought the danger was over. Although not exactly in line with the new information, but just another issue that should be addressed.


I thought that they did address that by continuing to issue advisories on "post-tropical" cyclones that was started last year?
Quoting 160. ChiThom:



I'm not old yet! Time keeps passing, but I stay the same. :-)

On the inside at least :D
Quoting 162. daddyjames:


On the inside at least :D


speak for yourself. :-J

P.S. I have my image to keep up! :j

P.P.S. BBL
Quoting 163. ChiThom:



speak for yourself. :-J


LOL - sorry to hear that . . . . ;)
Hello greetings and good afternoon everyone! I see there is any area of interest for tropical development in the West Atlantic, north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The phase change diagram from FSU already has the area as a symmetric, shallow warm-core. Water temperatures are not too shabby between 73-77°F, just south of the 80 degree threshold. Subtropical development a possibility.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/arch ive/17032506/57.html



Windshear is howling! Subtropical Jet Stream is still active across the southern U.S.

Looks like Peru is in for another very wet fortnight:


(Click to enlarge)

Selection of some more news in English:

As of today, official deathtoll climbed to 85.

South America: Heavy Rains and Floods Situation Report N° 1 (As of 24 March 2017)
Report from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Published on 24 Mar 2017

Three Peruvian hydropower plants go off line as country braces for more flooding
LIMA, 03/24/2017

Peru central bank seeks to bolster economy, may cut rates
March 24, 2017, 04:20:00 PM EDT By Reuters
Peru's central bank vowed on
Friday to do its part to help mitigate flooding and a massive graft scandal that it expects will trigger the first economic slowdown in three years. ...

Peru continues to receive support from international community
Andina, March 24

Venezuela sends humanitarian aid to Peru
Report from Agencia Venezolana de Noticias, Published on 24 Mar 2017

This last news is somewhat amazing in respect to the current plea from Venezuela itself to the UNO for supplies.

And speaking of Venezuela, I came across this odd stuff:
Venezuela Blames Climate Change after Its Troops Invade Colombia
By: Julián Villabona Galarza - Mar 24, 2017, 3:44 pm
Venezuela tried to downplay its illegal entry of troops into Colombia this week by claiming the constantly changing direction of a river near the border accidentally led the soldiers beyond their jurisdiction.
Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez said the Venezuelan soldiers entered Colombia’s eastern department of Arauca as a result of the Arauca River, which she said is constantly changing its flow and direction.
A diplomatic commission still has to clarify the incident, which is reportedly expected in the coming hours.
The government of Venezuela confirmed soldiers who invaded neighboring territory were part of a group carrying out operations to combat supposed criminal acts by Colombians near the border.
There may be some issues with sheer allowing anything coherent to develop:



World's reefs damaged beyond repair
Climate News Network - March 24.

The Great Barrier Reef, one of the wonders of the Pacific Ocean, may never fully recover from the combined effects of global warming and an El Nino year, according to a new study in one of the world's leading science journals.
And a second study, in a second journal, warns that increased sea surface temperatures have also caused both a major die-off of corals and the collapse of reef growth rates in the Maldives, in the Indian Ocean. (...)


Grassland lab raises species loss alarm
Climate News Network - March 20.

Kenyan Met Office predicts rains to fail sparking crisis worse than 2011
Climate Home - March 23.

Study released on Thursday shows a 2016 drought was made worse by climate change - but with March rains predicted to fail, the Met Office has warned of worse to come.
Spin? ~19N ~68W
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1215 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTH CENTRAL ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN  
LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1214 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF  
SPRINGFIELD, OR 14 MILES NORTH OF LAPLACE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
HAMMOND, PONCHATOULA, SPRINGFIELD, ROBERT AND KILLIAN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND  
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM  
WINDOWS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3045 9024 3042 9024 3017 9042 3021 9050  
3021 9048 3027 9045 3031 9047 3028 9054  
3023 9055 3026 9061 3058 9044  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 209DEG 18KT 3029 9048  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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XXL/AOI/XX
Circulation is just north of the eastern tip of Hispaniola.
Photographer captures world's glacier melt over decade
Phys.org - March 25.

For the last decade, American photographer James Balog has been on a mission to document climate change through his camera lens. His effort has taken him to the farthest reaches of the world, from Antarctica to the northern ends of Greenland, where he has captured the movements and melts of immense glaciers. The results of his work were on display at Chicago's Museum of Science and Industry, which on Thursday opened the exhibit "Extreme Ice."
"I want people to understand the ice," Balog told AFP in an interview at the show opening. "Ice is the manifestation of climate change in action." (...)
From Science:


Paleoclimatologist Kim Cobb samples coral, which preserves a record of water temperature in the ratio of oxygen isotopes in its skeleton.

Corals tie stronger El Niños to climate change

Dec. 9, 2016

Kim Cobb and two team members, clad in black scuba gear, have been scouring the coral-studded seabed near the equatorial Pacific's Christmas Island here for nearly an hour. Then Cobb emerges with a victorious "Yes!"

A few minutes later, Cobb, a paleoclimatologist at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, dives back to the bottom and, from under a coral head, extracts the prize: two small containers encrusted with coralline algae. Inside are recorders of salinity and temperature that captured in excruciating detail the 2015–16 El Niño event, which brought a pulse of abnormally warm water to the tropical Pacific. The recorders showed that during the disturbance, which wreaked climatic havoc around the globe, the warming here set a record: 3°C above normal. The extreme warmth, Cobb says, reflected not just the natural El Niño cycle, but a new factor: global warming caused by human activity.

As she will report next week at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, California, a detailed, long-term temperature record derived from corals on Christmas and other Pacific islands shows that over the last 7000 years, El Niños waxed and waned. Then, during the 20th century, with global warming taking hold, their intensity began to climb. The trend is likely to continue, boding ever more destructive El Niños, she says. "It's yet another impact of global warming that we'd like to avoid."

Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City, says Cobb's temperature archive offers the first historical picture of El Niño and its changes. "It's unique and gives a fascinating window into an otherwise totally obscure, but vitally important, part of climate history."

[...]

Yet no one knew whether the gradual warming of the globe is intensifying these events, in part because records are short and spotty in the remote parts of the Pacific where El Niño hits hardest. To get the long view, Cobb and her collaborators gathered hundreds of lumps of old coral washed up on beaches on Christmas and Fanning islands (both part of the Republic of Kiribati) and the U.S. island of Palmyra. By applying uranium-thorium dating to the corals and measuring ratios of oxygen isotopes in their skeletons, her lab reconstructed ocean temperatures for much of the last 7000 years.

During that time, Cobb says, "all kinds of stuff was going on in the climate, but it had no discernible effect on El Niño events." But the corals, supplemented by sensors like the one Cobb recovered off Christmas, show that over the past century El Niño intensity has increased by 25%. "There is no century even remotely resembling the 20th in the record for at least 5000 years," she says.

Cobb's finding is consistent with a 2013 study of tree rings suggesting that El Niño–related weather havoc has intensified across much of the globe in recent decades, notes Wenju Cai, a climate modeler at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Melbourne, Australia. But the tree ring record is too short, he says, to show whether global warming is to blame. Cobb's 7000-year archive, in contrast, "clearly shows that 20th century El Niños are more extreme and intense than they were before the industrial era, and that points to global warming as a cause."

[...]

Click here to read full article.
HWRF stalls Debbie off the Queensland coast for a while, but doesn't really intensify it before landfall. This is a very unpopulated area of the coast; looking at a map I can only identify a few very small settlements right on the beach. I wonder if BOM has any equipment in this region to measure potential storm surge - one of those small colonies is likely to get hammered. Further inland there's two larger settlements Ayr and Home Hill but they won't have to worry about any storm surge.

No GREEN BALL Atlantic quite yet.

But I expect that before Sundown CDT.

NRL
Debby

 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1255 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
WESTERN YAZOO COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...  
 
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT  
 
* AT 1255 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PHOENIX, OR  
11 MILES NORTHEAST OF REDWOOD, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
 
* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR,  
PHOENIX AROUND 100 PM CDT.  
TINSLEY AROUND 120 PM CDT.  
YAZOO CITY AROUND 135 PM CDT.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
SATARTIA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3269 9071 3266 9069 3267 9066 3269 9066  
3271 9071 3292 9060 3292 9045 3293 9045  
3279 9022 3254 9059 3255 9065 3259 9066  
3259 9069 3262 9069 3262 9072 3263 9069  
3265 9073  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 220DEG 33KT 3260 9066  
 
HAIL...1.25IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
17  
 
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Main Text Page

Enantiodromic blob

thirty-seven degrees and a wet, heavy snow the past three hours or so. When the heck will the real Spring arrive? April?
GFS doesn't have any sustained positive anomalies until April second through the fifth.


182. jeanX
@999Ai2016
173. 999Ai2016
5:36 PM GMT on March 25, 2017
2
+
Photographer captures world's glacier melt over decade

I tweeted it but I forgot to say where I got it from.
Sorry!
12z ECMWF has it more tropical at 72 hours.




Wow ...
The major US TV networks covered climate change for a grand total of 50 minutes last year—combined
Quartz, 7h ago
By all accounts, 2016 was an eventful year for the planet. It was the year when a record amount of coral perished in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, deforestation in the Amazon increased nearly 30%, polar sea ice the size of India disappeared, and of course it got hotter.
In fact, it was the hottest year ever recorded.
But the average American could be forgiven for not knowing about any of this. Because major US TV news networks, fixated on an election that provided the drama and entertainment of reality TV, dedicated almost no time to covering climate change. ...

More (with a chart) see link above.

There are now three rivers that are legally people
Quartz, 2h ago
In the space of a week, the world has gained three notable new legal persons: the Whanganui River in New Zealand, and the Ganga and Yamuna Rivers in India. ...
Quoting 180. Grothar:

Enantiodromic blob




I see a dog in a superhero costume chasing a ball (from a different angle of course).

Anything your way yet Pat? Here in south BR we had three seperate hail events over the past 7 hours. Penny to quarter size.
Quoting 161. daddyjames:



I thought that they did address that by continuing to issue advisories on "post-tropical" cyclones that was started last year?

Indeed they did.
BTW Gro - little one has been asking when blob season will start again. Just trying to guilt trip you into sticking around. She'll be horribly disappointed, and will miss your official blob designations so that she can properly "identify" them.
Microphysical image. Cool.
XXL/AOI/XX
Quoting 188. BTRsquatter:

Anything your way yet Pat? Here in south BR we had three seperate hail events over the past 7 hours. Penny to quarter size.


Ugly Sky, bout Half inch rains, cooler now after that first slug though.
Birds are back in huge numbers up here, but the snow and low temps are still sticking around for now. Warm up is supposedly on the way....

Have a good weekend everyone.

back to the 80's and soon...


Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a
couple tornadoes will be possible across parts of the southern
Plains on Sunday. A few strong wind gusts and/or instances of
marginally severe hail may occur over parts of the Appalachians and
Ohio Valley as well.

Awesome. The beginning of the real official Spring here in OK has arrived. Tomorrow will be fun.
by end of the week
system tagged AOI will be absorbing a smaller weaker low
off Maritimes and start bomb out off sw grand banks of newfoundland

as per models anyway

we shall see


200. SLU
Quoting 186. barbamz:

Wow ...
The major US TV networks covered climate change for a grand total of 50 minutes last year—combined
Quartz, 7h ago
By all accounts, 2016 was an eventful year for the planet. It was the year when a record amount of coral perished in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, deforestation in the Amazon increased nearly 30%, polar sea ice the size of India disappeared, and of course it got hotter.
In fact, it was the hottest year ever recorded.
But the average American could be forgiven for not knowing about any of this. Because major US TV news networks, fixated on an election that provided the drama and entertainment of reality TV, dedicated almost no time to covering climate change. ...

More (with a chart) see link above.

There are now three rivers that are legally people
Quartz, 2h ago
In the space of a week, the world has gained three notable new legal persons: the Whanganui River in New Zealand, and the Ganga and Yamuna Rivers in India. ...


It's obviously not as important as some people think it is.
Quoting 200. SLU:



It's obviously not as important as some people think it is.
it matters not to climate change what any of us think about it
Quoting 200. SLU:



It's obviously not as important as some people think it is.


Not really. They were simply focused upon the immediate disaster that was unfolding, and not the greater disaster that will occur.
From Science News:

Most Americans like science — and are willing to pay for it


U.S. taxpayer dollars go to fund science projects from weather tracking to duck monitoring. But most people have no idea how much — or rather, how little — government money goes to scientific research.

Americans don’t hate science. Quite the contrary. In fact, 79 percent of Americans think science has made their lives easier, a 2014 Pew Research Center survey found. More than 60 percent of people also believe that government funding for science is essential to its success.

But should the United States spend more money on scientific research than it already does? A layperson’s answer to that question depends on how much that person thinks the government already spends on science, a new study shows. When people find out just how much — or rather, how little — of the federal budget goes to science, support for more funding suddenly jumps.

[...]

The survey was simple. First, participants were asked to estimate what percentage of the federal budget was spent on scientific research. Once they’d guessed, half of the participants were told the actual amount that the federal government allocates for nondefense spending on research and development. In 2014, that figure was 1.6 percent of the budget, or about $67 billion. Finally, all the participants were asked if federal spending on science should be increased, decreased or kept the same.

The majority of participants had no idea how much money the government spends on science, and wildly overestimated the actual amount. About half of the respondents estimated federal spending for research at somewhere between 5 and 20 percent of the budget. A quarter of participants estimated that figure was 20 percent of the budget — one very hefty chunk of change. The last 25 percent of respondents estimated that 1 to 2 percent of federal spending went to science.

When participants received no information about how much the United States spent on research, only about 40 percent of them supported more funding. But when they were confronted with the real numbers, support for more funding leapt from 40 to 60 percent.

[...]

“I think it contributes to our understanding of the aspects of federal spending that people don’t understand very well,” says Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth University in Hanover, N.H. It’s not surprising that most people don’t know how much the government is spending on research. Nyhan points out that most people probably don’t know how much the government spends on education or foreign aid either.

[...] Goldfarb and Kriner’s data show that Americans really do like and support science. They want to pay for it. And they may even want to shell out some more money, when they know just how little they already spend.

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 204. Xandra:

From Science News:

Most Americans like science — and are willing to pay for it


U.S. taxpayer dollars go to fund science projects from weather tracking to duck monitoring. But most people have no idea how much — or rather, how little — government money goes to scientific research.



Yeah, remember we are supposed to be swimming in the millions - no billions - of dollars that are lavished upon us so that we live lives of luxury without actually doing anything.
After all, scientists these days have nothing to do with anything that has actually been produced. And hey, they can't seem to make up their minds or agree about anything, so what good are they?

Note:
Quoting 166. barbamz:

Looks like Peru is in for another very wet fortnight:



The floods will probably go on till the 3rd week of April.
Inland of Piura and Sullana, the rainfall ammounts are just insane, in some cases setting historical records.
In Ecuador it s little bit less serious. Heavy rains are drenching the Galapagos Islands, but not at the crazy levels seen in January 1983.
Quoting 193. Patrap:



Ugly Sky, bout Half inch rains, cooler now after that first slug though.

You would think the turning over would have stopped it. We had round after round through the same spots. Im interested to look into how they redeveloped in the sabine area and went descrete within a couple hours of the first line.
Lights go out around the world for 10th Earth Hour

The lights are being switched off around the world at 8:30 p.m. on Saturday evening, to mark the 10th annual Earth Hour, and to draw attention to climate change.

The initiative began in Australia in 2007 as a grass roots gesture by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Australia against man-made carbon dioxide emissions linked to a warming planet.

In 2017, it will involve the switching off of electric lights for an hour in 7,000 cities across 172 countries, at 8:30 p.m. local time, with the aim of highlighting the need to act on climate change, and saving a few megawatts of power in the process.

Of course, President Trump was setting the trend much before anyone else . . .
Donald Trump's team 'having meetings in the dark as they can't find right light switch in White House'



a few things

I do not think we will see any El Nino this year there is just not enough to support it at this time

the Sub-surface Anoms. certainly does not show it



the upper heat content had peaked just shy of 0.4 since then its cooling off



SSTA over past 7 days has cooled off most noticeable is the warm pool off SA/Peru coast that has cooled if this trend continue I'd say this Peru El Nino will soon end



SOI value is rising (La Nina + / El Nino - )



on to other matters

Atlantic season is starting early again this will make it the 3rd Season in a row to start early and the 2nd Season in a row to start very early and the 2nd Storm to form in March in recorded history and that last March storm was 109 years ago

system center located 19N/20N 68W 1012



I suspect possible STWO to be issued with next 12hrs

another thing this is a good thing to test out some of NHC new products for this year
Started keeping what was my Wunderblog here. Disqus doesn't seem to have that self-updating quality that my Wunderblog for so many years was based on. So it's there for at least now.

A little clip of Cyclone Debbie, incoming!
Quoting 209. wunderkidcayman:

a few things

I do not think we will see any El Nino this year there is just not enough to support it at this time

the Sub-surface Anoms. certainly does not show it



the upper heat content had peaked just shy of 0.4 since then its cooling off



SSTA over past 7 days has cooled off most noticeable is the warm pool off SA/Peru coast that has cooled if this trend continue I'd say this Peru El Nino will soon end



SOI value is rising (La Nina + / El Nino - )



on to other matters

Atlantic season is starting early again this will make it the 3rd Season in a row to start early and the 2nd Season in a row to start very early and the 2nd Storm to form in March in recorded history and that last March storm was 109 years ago

system center located 19N/20N 68W 1012



I suspect possible STWO to be issued with next 12hrs

another thing this is a good thing to test out some of NHC new products for this year

The models paint a very different picture than the subsurface anomalies. While models are insistent that we are heading to El Nino, the subsurface anomalies are very different.
Warm subsurface anomalies have decreased and are +1.0 to +1.5 at absolute most, usually they are like +3 or higher when El Nino forms.
ESPI is -0.94 today. The atmosphere isn't acting like El Nino is nigh.
Quoting 210. Skyepony:

Started keeping what was my Wunderblog here. Disqus doesn't seem to have that self-updating quality that my Wunderblog for so many years was based on. So it's there for at least now.

A little clip of Cyclone Debbie, incoming!





townsville ? LOL is that the home of the power puff girls ? lol
Debbie

Quoting 213. thetwilightzone:

townsville ? LOL is that the home of the power puff girls ? lol

Hope so, they'll need their shields up..
Had to cover the sweet corn rows from todays rains, and they survived perfectly.





Quoting 216. Patrap:

Had to cover the sweet corn rows from todays rains, and they survived perfectly.


Keep those covers handy, or try rice.

Quoting 211. HurricaneFan:


The models paint a very different picture than the subsurface anomalies. While models are insistent that we are heading to El Nino, the subsurface anomalies are very different.
Warm subsurface anomalies have decreased and are 1.0 to 1.5 at absolute most, usually they are like 3 or higher when El Nino forms.





I wonder if the "source" of the current temp anomalies (weird "Peru" El NINO) is coming from somewhere else than the subsurface along the equator. Seems as if the entire Western coast of South America may have experienced a warm water (upwelling?) event. Wonder if this is potentially a result of the record ice melt in the Antarctica the summer.



Pure speculation on my part.
Quoting 217. gr8lakebreeze:



Keep those covers handy, or try rice.



On the bright side, the rains will be very beneficial since much of the region is in drought or abnormally dry.
A Roadmap for Rapid Decarbonization
Emissions inevitably approach zero with a carbon law

Science Magazine Article. Open Access.

Perspectives for the Energy Transition
Investment Needs for a Low-Carbon Energy System
(opens a pdf).
The International Energy Agency and The International Renewable Energy Agency Report


himawari 8 (and goes 16) are literally some of my favourite things in the world.
XXL/AOI/XX
Quoting 210. Skyepony:

Started keeping what was my Wunderblog here. Disqus doesn't seem to have that self-updating quality that my Wunderblog for so many years was based on. So it's there for at least now.


Awesome... We'll see how things progress here... May be hangin' lurkin' in Springfield a bit more than here... Who knows... Shelbyville seems to be gettin' a bit too corporate!
TS winds

Also looks like a convective burst is occurring fairly close to the elongated COC
Quoting 218. daddyjames:



I wonder if the "source" of the current temp anomalies (weird "Peru" El NINO) is coming from somewhere else than the subsurface along the equator. Seems as if the entire Western coast of South America may have experienced a warm water (upwelling?) event. Wonder if this is potentially a result of the record ice melt in the Antarctica the summer.

Pure speculation on my part.


Hmm, may have been as a large area of warmer water approaches the southern portion of South America before the Peruvian El Nino begins.

When will we have a STWO?
A.Tomorrow morning
B. Tomorrow night
C. Monday
D. Never
Quoting 227. Andrebrooks:

When will we have a STWO?
A.Tomorrow morning
B. Tomorrow night
C. Monday
D. Never

Idk lol. I too wonder why the NHC hasn't issued a STWO yet...considering we could have a subtropical storm in 24-36 hours according to the models.
When will Invest 90L be up for system north of Hispanola?

My guess is B.

A-Sunday morning
B-Sunday afternoon
C-Sunday night
D-Monday morning
E-Monday afternoon
F-Never Invest 90L will be up
Debbie



Quoting 228. HurricaneFan:


Idk lol. I too wonder why the NHC hasn't issued a STWO yet...considering we could have a subtropical storm in 24-36 hours according to the models.
There's a low pressure too.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 MAR 2017 Time : 014000 UTC
Lat : 18:06:27 S Lon : 151:14:40 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 989.6mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -53.4C Cloud Region Temp : -64.8C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 143km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 24.2 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting 229. Tropicsweatherpr:

When will Invest 90L be up for system north of Hispanola?

A-Sunday morning
B-Sunday afternoon
C-Sunday night
D-Monday morning
E Monday afternoon
F-Never Invest 90L will be up
A or B.
Quoting 224. ChillinInTheKeys:



Awesome... We'll see how things progress here... May be hangin' lurkin' in Springfield a bit more than here... Who knows... Shelbyville seems to be gettin' a bit too corporate!

I just checked springfield first time in years all I see over there is porn link spam lol and 6 or 7 comment posters
at the bottom of the hill over there too huh
Quoting 223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XXL/AOI/XX



PR Doppler

The Atlantic is awakening....

It is gonna be a interesting time.




Our system is certainly looking interesting tonight. With models in nearly unanimous agreement for at least subtropical development, I've upped my odds of development to 40% in the short term and 50% overall. Exceptionally rare for March.

240. Ed22
Quoting 238. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Our system is certainly looking interesting tonight. With models in nearly unanimous agreement for at least subtropical development, I've upped my odds of development to 40% in the short term and 50% overall. Exceptionally rare for March.


Looking better organized, NHC is waiting on the last minute to say something; I hate conservativeness.
Even though this current Atlantic SST profile isn't the best at producing mid-season major hurricanes, it seems to do well with off-season developments. lol
Wow...looks closed now with winds of up to 40 knots (45 mph)!
Dr. Greg Forbes



SUNDAY 3/26
Scattered severe thunderstorms from the next weather system in north-central TX, central and east OK, south-central KS, extreme west AR in late afternoon and evening, spreading overnight into southeast KS, southwest MO, central AR, parts of northeast TX. TORCON - 4 north-central TX, central and east OK; 2 to 3 rest of area


Definitely Springtime in the SoPlains!
249. Ed22
Quoting 243. HurricaneFan:

Wow...looks closed now with winds of up to 40 knots (45 mph)!

Thats a closed circulation, Sub-tropical storm Arlene now; Still nothing from the Conservative NHC.
Quoting 211. HurricaneFan:


The models paint a very different picture than the subsurface anomalies. While models are insistent that we are heading to El Nino, the subsurface anomalies are very different.
Warm subsurface anomalies have decreased and are +1.0 to +1.5 at absolute most, usually they are like +3 or higher when El Nino forms.



yep

as I said models likely having issues due to Spring Predictability Barrier

remembering back in 2011 models suggested we would go into El Nino later that year we went Neutral then dropped back to La Nina

I do think same will happen this year or atleast get back into cool Neutral

a few things that happened then are similarly happening now
Quoting 20. 19N81W:

seems plausible.....

out of curiosity how did it (earth) cool back down?



Over the long term silicate rock weathering draws CO2 out of the atmosphere but that takes place on time scales of millions of years. Also some of it was removed by organic sources being buried in sediment.

From Wikipedia: Drivers of ancient Earth carbon dioxide concentration.
Regarding the upcoming change to Disqus, I've had a Disqus account for well over a decade (riverat) and haven't had any serious problems with it. It has some features similar to the current commenting system like plussing and flagging comments. I don't think it will be that bad once you get used to it.
Short Queensland loop

Short Australian loop

Long (18hr) Queensland loop

Long (18hr) Australian loop
NHC has been SUPER conservative with the low pressure north of Hispanola especially after the ASCAT of last night showed a well defined low with TS force winds. Still no Invest nor STWO on Sunday morning. End of mini rant.
James Reynolds:
@EarthUncutTV

Stunning pre #CycloneDebbie sunset south of Ayr - you often see amazing sunsets prior to major storms #Australia



And another even better shot, expecting weather to go seriously downhill tomorrow #CycloneDebbie #Australia

Coming out of my winter hibernation ahead of the '17 season.

01L incoming?



Also, I see that I joined in 1969 now!
Tropical Cyclone Debbie Total Precipitation [mm] 72 hr



Quoting 256. CybrTeddy:

Coming out of my winter hibernation ahead of the '17 season.

01L incoming?



Also, I see that I joined in 1969 now!

welcome back. Glad you woke up this week if you slept in another youd have missed us were moving. Lotsa gone on while you've been on hiatus.
259. bwi
I had 83 degrees high temp yesterday at my PWS (which isn't really well positioned for accuracy so maybe a bit exaggerated) on SW winds.

Today winds are easterly off the bay and ocean and 46 degrees currently.

Near Washington DC.
Quoting 235. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I just checked springfield first time in years all I see over there is porn link spam lol and 6 or 7 comment posters
at the bottom of the hill over there too huh


It is an option though if this place goes away. Plenty of WU folks registered there. It could be fun but you do need waders there... Here lately too! What and where would you or others suggest? We could hang out at Skye's place.

Added: More humor there... Kinda like the early WU days. Wonder how long Dr. M's non-compete agreement is for.
Quoting 243. HurricaneFan:

Wow...looks closed now with winds of up to 40 knots (45 mph)!





Not a completely closed circulation, open on the northern side. Maybe by the end of the day.




Shear, although decreasing where it is . . .




. . . may prevent the system from consolidating. It is a sprawling system.

vorticity 500 mb




vorticity 850 mb


262. SLU
Quoting 261. daddyjames:





Not a completely closed circulation, open on the northern side. Maybe by the end of the day.




Shear, although decreasing where it is . . .




. . . may prevent the system from consolidating. It is a sprawling system.

vorticity 500 mb




vorticity 850 mb





The circulation is closed. It can't be open on the northern side when there are easterly winds for hundreds of miles from the center.
G'mornin.

First, looking like we're not going to flood this year.
Nevada dam in race against Sierra snowmelt The ditches are all running at full July levels right now, and water orders have only just been placed on 3/15. Pretty weird.

Second, our PWS is down. Some electric twitch during or after a power outage fried the firmware on the hub. It's an uncommon but known failure. The hub is at Chaney Instruments getting tested, and as it's under warranty will be reflashed or replaced and returned in 1 to 3 weeks.
As far as local weather, the fireworks projected to start later this afternoon/evening has increased in risk with a slight shift in the focus to the SoCenOK/NoTx.

Hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes still in the mix. Stay safe folks.



SPC AC 261253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017


Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EAST OK
INTO FAR NORTH TX...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR SOUTH
KS...WEST AR...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
KS/MO/AR/OK/TX...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPPER OH
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe storms with very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging
winds are expected after 4 pm CDT across central and eastern
Oklahoma into northeast Texas through this evening.
Quoting 262. SLU:



The circulation is closed. It can't be open on the northern side when there are easterly winds for hundreds of miles from the center.


Hundreds of miles from the center don't count :P

If you look at the ASCAT and the low level winds from CIMSS, neither one shows the center to be completely closed off. Not at the surface anyways.
Tweet from Eric Blake about when (If) they will issue products for low pressure.

Eric Blake‏
 @EricBlake12 10m

@kal_tellefsen not at work. For an offseason outlook to be issued, usually has to be a significant chance of genesis
Quoting 258. lat25five:


welcome back. Glad you woke up this week if you slept in another youd have missed us were moving. Lotsa gone on while you've been on hiatus.


We are not really moving. Its just that you will have to sign onto DISQUS in order to comment here. Basically there will be no sign on to access this site per se.
268. SLU
Quoting 265. daddyjames:



Hundreds of miles form the center don't count :P

If you look at the ASCAT and the low level winds from CIMSS, neither one shows the center to be completely closed off. Not at the surface anyways.


SMH. I respect your opinion. *facepalm*

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 268. SLU:



SMH. I respect your opinion. *facepalm*

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


SMH There are no barbs going directly east in that figure - with an open slot extending to the NE. Same is seen on the CMISS figure with one barb at 500mb on the northern side actually coming out of the west.

Agree to disagree - as that is what this site is all about, the expression of our individual interpretations of the available data.
Even though the system in the Atlantic has a partially or fully closed circulation (there is a debate), the convection associated with the system is quite sparse, and this may be a major hurdle for the system to develop into Arlene.
From Grist:

SPOILER ALERT



A fun fact you didn’t know: Koalas don’t drink water, but now they have to. Just like you tell yourself that you get all the hydration your body needs from beer (you don’t), koalas usually get all the water they need from eating eucalyptus leaves. But that’s changing, now that those leaves are slowly drying out.

It’s your worst friend — climate change!

Researchers at the University of Sydney in Australia have set up drinking stations (dubbed “Blinky Drinkers”) to observe whether the marsupials are drawn to them. And sure enough, their study has shown that populations benefit from supplemental water — which is a new development for koalas.

Footage showed koalas staying an average of ten minutes at drinking stations. But this data was from last winter, and the data from summer — December to February Down Under — has yet to be analyzed. Keep in mind that summer sun in Gunnedah, the “koala capital of the world,” can ratchet temperatures up to 120 degrees F.

If koalas need to start drinking water, they’ll likely run into significant problems as many of their habitats don’t have sitting water sources. Perhaps Australian elf queen Cate Blanchett could donate some face mists to their cause?
272. SLU
Quoting 270. HurricaneFan:

Even though the system in the Atlantic has a partially or fully closed circulation (there is a debate), the convection associated with the system is quite sparse, and this may be a major hurdle for the system to develop into Arlene.


The circulation is closed so all we need is about 12 hours of persistent thunderstorms near the center before the system can be classifiable.
Quoting 272. SLU:



The circulation is closed so all we need is about 12 hours of persistent thunderstorms near the center before the system can be classifiable.


That is where the shear will present an issue. Not sure that any of the colder cloud tops are close to the center (although that is not necessarily an issue for a subtropical storm).
274. beell
The upper shortwave trough, a slightly coupled pair of upper jets, and the excellent diffluence they provided are coming to an end. The trough should begin to de-amplify today. It's dead, Jim.

Sounds really good anyway...
its has always bugged me that what considered tabloid news is what matters the most or the current goings on of a celebrity. whoever decided to name them stars were grossly mistaken. I swear watching that stuff decreases the IQ. Rachael Maddow had a great clip a couple of days ago about tabloid magazines. everytime I am in the check out line of the grocery store i get pissed that those magazines are there.

thanks as always barb


barbamz
Wow ...
The major US TV networks covered climate change for a grand total of 50 minutes last year—combined
By all accounts, 2016 was an eventful year for the planet. It was the year when a record amount of coral perished in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, deforestation in the Amazon increased nearly 30%, polar sea ice the size of India disappeared, and of course it got hotter.
In fact, it was the hottest year ever recorded.
But the average American could be forgiven for not knowing about any of this. Because major US TV news networks, fixated on an election that provided the drama and entertainment of reality TV, dedicated almost no time to covering climate change. ...
Quoting 274. beell:

The upper shortwave trough, a slightly coupled pair of upper jets, and the excellent diffluence they provided are coming to an end. The trough should begin to de-amplify today. It's dead, Jim.

Sounds really good anyway...


In reference to the severe threat over my neck of the woods today (one can only hope)?




Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
911 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017


OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-271415-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Maj or-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-G rady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Gre er-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc- Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bry an-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
911 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.oderate

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
Oklahoma, surrounded by Slight and Enhanced Risk areas that cover
additional parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas.

Location...
The Moderate Risk area is west of a line from Waurika to Duncan to
El Reno to Guthrie, and south of a line from Guthrie to Stroud.
This includes the Oklahoma City metropolitan area, Pauls Valley,
Ardmore, Seminole, Ada, Atoka and Durant.

To the west of the Moderate Risk area, there is a Slight and
Enhanced Risk of severe weather across northern and western
Oklahoma, to the east of a line from Laverne to Clinton to Lawton
to Clay County Texas.

Timing... 4 pm through 9 pm.

Impacts...
Large hail up to tennis ball size will be the main hazard.
Damaging winds and tornadoes will also be possible.

Discussion...
Morning data suggests an increased potential of severe weather
late this afternoon and this evening. Although low-level moisture
is low this morning, higher humidity is moving quickly north
through Texas and will move into Oklahoma this morning and
afternoon. This moisture will allow the atmosphere to become very
unstable this afternoon.

Scattered storms are expected to develop late this afternoon
across western sections of north Texas and western Oklahoma and
become severe as they move east-northeast. The atmospheric wind
shear will support supercell thunderstorms with the associated
risk of large hail, damaging winds, and the potential of isolated
tornadoes. The highest chances of severe weather will be across
central, south central and southeast Oklahoma where instability
will be the highest. Storms are expected to move out of the area
around or just after midnight.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across
central, western, and southern Oklahoma and portions of north
Texas should prepare for severe weather operations from about
4 pm through midnight.

.Fire weather...
Fire Danger will be very high across southwestern Oklahoma and
western north Texas as dry air moves in behind a dryline. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect through early evening for this area.

.Fog...
Patches of fog will reduce visibilities in parts of northern and
southeast Oklahoma early this morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms again on Tuesday
and Wednesday. There is also a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday
and Saturday.

.Heavy rain...
Heavy rain is possible on Tuesday, and likely on Wednesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

$$
John Morales‏
@JohnMoralesNBC6

Atlantic tropical cyclone names Matthew & Otto to be retired and replaced by Martin & Owen, as per @WMO #hurricane meeting in #CostaRica.
Quoting 280. HurricaneFan:

John Morales‏
@JohnMoralesNBC6

Atlantic tropical cyclone names Matthew & Otto to be retired and replaced by Martin & Owen, as per @WMO #hurricane meeting in #CostaRica.


any retired names for the E PAC side?
Quoting 280. HurricaneFan:

John Morales‏
@JohnMoralesNBC6

Atlantic tropical cyclone names Matthew & Otto to be retired and replaced by Martin & Owen, as per @WMO #hurricane meeting in #CostaRica.
Awesome.
VORTEX – SE Weather Briefing

Excerpt:

Recap
•Overall, pattern looks active over the next coming week
•Sunday Afternoon–Best thermodynamics look to be in the eastern domain–Shear and forcing are marginal
•Monday –Trough looks weaker than in previous days, this will have a negative impact on shear–Main threat looks to be wind and hail with the more impressive thermodynamic setup
•Thursday - Main focus has shifted to this event–Still considerable spread amongst ensembles, hoping for better consistency over the next few days
•For now, timing looks to be late Thursday into Friday morning
•Monitoring another system next weekend... will be more on that in upcoming briefings
284. beell
Quoting 277. daddyjames:



In reference to the severe threat over my neck of the woods today (one can only hope)?




Not many of the forecast soundings are overly happy about surface based storms-so...maybe a hint that it will take a boundary (dryline) to get things going. Stillwater area may be close to the triple point-if some moisture can get there.
Quoting 281. thetwilightzone:



any retired names for the E PAC side?

Not that I know of
Quoting 284. beell:



Not many of the forecast soundings are overly happy about surface based storms-so...maybe a hint that it will take a boundary (dryline) to get things going. Stillwater area may be close to the triple point-if some moisture can get there.


Remind me why I should be concerned about the triple point?

I think the forecast calls for the dryline to set up in and around the I-35 corridor later this afternoon.

Edit: Oh, now I know. Not good beell, not good!
otto people on the border of Nicaraqua and Costa Rica will never forget him.
Quoting 260. ChillinInTheKeys:



It is an option though if this place goes away. Plenty of WU folks registered there. It could be fun but you do need waders there... Here lately too! What and where would you or others suggest? We could hang out at Skye's place.

Added: More humor there... Kinda like the early WU days. Wonder how long Dr. M's non-compete agreement is for.


well this place really isn't going to go away
it will still be here on a new and improved platform
the former will be replaced with just cat 6 and the feature bloggers yet to be announced
individual blogs of current format will all be archived into the history books minus comments

most are looking for a place to set up their own blogs and photo sections
similar to what was here I guess
many options Facebook flicker disgus for main areas and a few have try something on there own
I haven't heard anyone mention springfield but that is all up to individuals I reckon
me I will likely be everywhere and still check in at cat 6 everyday







Hail looks likely today in some places. I hate hail.
looks like a run on of systems for a bit

Quoting 286. daddyjames:



Remind me why I should be concerned about the triple point?

I think the forecast calls for the dryline to set up in and around the I-35 corridor later this afternoon.

I looked it up. Thanks for making me feel better beell. :P ;)
293. beell
Quoting 286. daddyjames:



Remind me why I should be concerned about the triple point?

I think the forecast calls for the dryline to set up in and around the I-35 corridor later this afternoon.


I see you got an answer. In a word, enhancedsurfaceconvergence.
Quoting 293. beell:



I see you got an answer. In a word, enhancedsurfaceconvergence.


Yeah, I did. BBL - going outside with the hair dryer to see if I can prevent that moisture from accumulating any further ;)

Wait a minute, strike that - firing up the air conditioner to remove the moisture from the air . . .
296. beell

Current RAP Surface temps, dp's and pmsl

Mid 50's to 60°F dewpoints getting pretty close to the Red River.
Dr. Greg Forbes

TODAY 3/26
Scattered severe thunderstorms from the next weather system in north-central TX, central and east OK, south-central KS.
TORCON - 5 central OK, north-central TX; 2-3 south-central KS. The severe threat may spread overnight into southeast KS, southwest MO, west AR, northeast TX. TORCON - 2 to 3. A chance of afternoon severe thunderstorms in OH, northwest WV. TORCON - 1




Flip a coin.
Quoting 296. beell:


Current RAP Surface temps, dp's and pmsl

Mid 50's to 60°F dewpoints getting pretty close to the Red River.


I'm gonna build a wall, and its gonna be a great wall. Bigly. To prevent that unwanted immigration of dewpoints flowing in from the south. Believe me!
Meanwhile on the other side of the world - still forcasting Debbie to be a Cat 4 at landfall.




Outer bands starting to brush the coastline.

300. beell
Quoting 298. daddyjames:



I'm gonna build a wall, and its gonna be a great wall. Bigly. To prevent that unwanted immigration of dewpoints flowing in from the south. Believe me!


I think we should enact legislation to ensure that dewpoints are shared equally by all. No one will suffer from lack or overabundance of dp's. The equal distribution of misery should be the foundation of this great country.

Quoting 300. beell:



I think we should enact legislation to ensure that dewpoints are shared equally by all. No one will suffer from lack or overabundance of dp's. The equal distribution of misery should be the foundation of this great country.




:LOL - you are only saying that because you are being inundated by dewpoints! Nope, keep them to yourself. No sharing. Not my fault you allow dewpoints to overrun your state. :D
Quoting 301. daddyjames:



:LOL - you are only saying that because you are being inundated by dewpoints! Nope, keep them to yourself. No sharing. Not my fault you allow dewpoints to overrun your state. :D
you may need a dome nothing stopping the dew points from overtopping the wall
our AOI from yesterday is gonna be a high seas storm laters in the week

March showers bring April flowers.
Quoting 302. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

you may need a dome nothing stopping the dew points from overtopping the wall


And it will be the best dome ever! Bigger and better than the Superdome that they have in TX. And who is going to pay for it? Them Texans. Believe me.

Addendum: A lot of "Bad Hombres" down there. Look at that beell guy - trying to triple point me. The only triples we like here are those associated with Russell Westbrook.
that's april showers bring may flowers come on stop confusing me
Quoting 304. ChiThom:

March showers bring April flowers.


It was January showers that brought February flowers here.
We have March flowers, too!

Crocuses and snowdrops, and budding daffodils.
Quoting 295. Patrap:




Shouldn't that be "The End is Here"?
310. beell
Quoting 301. daddyjames:



:LOL - you are only saying that because you are being inundated by dewpoints! Nope, keep them to yourself. No sharing. Not my fault you allow dewpoints to overrun your state. :D


We try to do our part. It is one of our largest export products.
311. SLU

and we also had march in February and February in march all this stuff is just getting all confused
Quoting 305. daddyjames:



And it will be the best dome ever! Bigger and better than the Superdome that they have in TX. And who is going to pay for it? Them Texans. Believe me.

Addendum: A lot of "Bad Hombres" down there. Look at that beell guy - trying to triple point me. The only triples we like here are those associated with Russell Westbrook.


The Superdome is in New orleans.

Thanx




re 309 daddyjames

In a week it will be here.
Quoting 310. beell:



We try to do our part. It is one of our largest export products.


Kinda like recreational marijuana is one of Colorado's largest exports to the NW region of OK. Nope gonna build a lot of walls. Man, we gotta get busy. Walls to the north, domes covering the state. Sigh. Of course, budget-wise we'll have to sacrifice the educational system to afford any of this (well, except for the dome, as them Texans are gonna pay for that) .
No loss, what good is education anyways when we have the enter(tain)net?
Quoting 313. Patrap:



The Superdome is in New orleans.

Thanx







LOL ;) (Blame it on the educamational system here in OK).
Debby

Quoting 313. Patrap:



The Superdome is in New orleans.

Thanx







Actually: Fake News! Everyone knows that the superest of Superdomes is located in Texas. I know, I saw it on a video at
fakenewsfortoday-andonlyfortoday-astommorowwe'llm akesomethingelseentirelyup.com.
A moment in time, after waiting 43 years, arrives.

The Night Hell froze Over in NOLA
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

..Southern Plains...
Embedded within a moderately strong belt of southern-stream
westerlies, a relatively compact shortwave trough over the
south-central High Plains at late morning will continue eastward and
reach the Ozarks by late tonight. Within the base of this trough,
12Z upper-air analysis featured a 50 kt belt of mid/high-level (500
mb and above) southwesterly winds that extend from southern/eastern
NM into the TX panhandle/far western OK/southwest KS. Given that
less that 48 hours has passed since the prior system (now over the
Midwest) at this general latitude/longitude, moisture
return/availability across the southern Plains remains a point of
uncertainty, especially regarding the magnitude of the tornado risk
in an otherwise very favorable early-Spring Southern Plains setup.

Beneath an eastward-advecting elevated mixed plume (sampled across
the south-central High Plains at 12Z), surface observations feature
around 60F dewpoints into southern parts of DFW Metroplex as of 16Z.
These near-60F dewpoints should reach parts of south-central OK by
21Z-00Z. Visible satellite imagery shows a band of higher-level
cloud cover that will overspread the increasingly moist warm sector
this afternoon. While not typically a severe-favorable factor, this
cloud cover should at least partially shield the boundary layer and
somewhat deter mixing while otherwise supporting a gradual increase
in near-surface moisture through the afternoon/early evening.
Current trends/short-term guidance suggest this cirrus should
overspread/progress east of the dryline toward/after roughly 21Z.

Ahead of the slow-eastward-mixing dryline, near-60F surface
dewpoints should generally result in around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE
by peak heating from south-central OK into western parts of North
TX. Weaker near-surface destabilization is expected farther north
into northwest/north-central OK and extreme southern KS
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
322. beell
Quoting 318. daddyjames:



Actually: Fake News! Everyone knows that the superest of Superdomes is located in Texas. I know, I saw it on a video at
fakenewsfortoday-andonlyfortoday-astommorowwe'llm akesomethingelseentirelyup.com.


No worries, dj.
We still don't know what to do with the "Astrodome" since they built NRG stadium. It would cost millions to tear it down.

A few viable ideas from the Houston Press

Giant Bouncy Castle: Fact. Pretty much anything you do involving NRG Park is going to take all damned day when you factor in drive, parking and event duration. Second fact: Small children like organized activities that last all day about as much as they like letting you sleep past 7 a.m.. Final fact: Bouncy castles are cheap and can be removed for storage. Let's fill the floor of the Dome with a couple dozen inflatable castles and obstacle courses so parents can let their kids wear themselves out for a half-hour and then maybe they'll settle down and watch the circus or the game without fidgeting. We could get a little train to take them from NRG Park over to the InflastroDome.

Potitorium: Look, legal weed is coming to coming very, very soon. I know it, you know it and the city knows it. Why not get a head start and try to corner the supply? Turn the Astrodome into a giant pot greenhouse. It already gets some natural light through the skylights and we can add growing bulbs. Space can be rented to private growers enabling an easy overlook from drug and custom officials, and there would be room left over for offices and maybe a Drug Crime Museum.

World's Longest Tire Swing: No frills. Just that. One big tire swing suspended from the ceiling and anyone can come get in it. Call it an art installation commenting on the commercialization of fun if you want to.

Or... Maybe we could just let the 5,000 people that are homeless each night in Houston crash there since it's one of the few places you can take a bus and a train to. Just saying.




Quoting 315. daddyjames:



Kinda like recreational marijuana is one of Colorado's largest exports to the NW region of OK. Nope gonna build a lot of walls. Man, we gotta get busy. Walls to the north, domes covering the state. Sigh. Of course, budget-wise we'll have to sacrifice the educational system to afford any of this (well, except for the dome, as them Texans are gonna pay for that) .
No loss, what good is education anyways when we have the enter(tain)net?


Bread and Circuses. So glad we've moved beyond that.
Great article! Really appreciate the explanation of the regional El Nino. Makes me grateful for curious scientists and I love to see how their understanding evolves as they observe and are properly skeptical of current thinking's ability to explain.