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A Prolonged Series of Severe Threats—But How Severe?

By: Bob Henson 4:36 PM GMT on March 23, 2017

As storm systems sweep across the country over the next week in classic late-March fashion, we can expect near-daily doses of severe weather over parts of the south-central and southeast United States. A parade of moderately strong upper-level lows will be pulling in a steady stream of warm and moderately moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the resulting severe weather will plow through the regions most favored for stormy conditions in early spring, from Texas and Oklahoma across the Mississippi Valley into the Southeast states. Fortunately, no sign of a major tornado outbreak is rearing its head right now.


Figure X. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlooks issued on Thursday morning, March 23, 2017. Each of the next three days (March 23-25) features a slight-risk area.

A warm Gulf of Mexico, yet a modest supply of moisture
The extended sequence of severe weather will kick off with a line of storms expected to form by around sunset Thursday (see Figure 3 below) along a sharp dry line that will extend from west Texas to central Nebraska. There will be strong dynamics and ample wind shear. However, the low-level flow from the Gulf hasn’t yet been fully recharged with moisture throughout the lowest mile or so of the atmosphere. Even though the western Gulf is much warmer than normal for late March, a condition that typically favors severe weather (see this Capital Weather Gang overview from Wednesday), the atmospheric dynamics in recent days haven’t been optimal for water vapor to evaporate from the toasty sea surface into the atmosphere.

The result is an air mass with fairly high surface dew points but a shallow vertical extent of moisture. Even at Corpus Christi, TX, the 12Z Thursday sounding showed a mere 1.66 cm (0.65”) of precipitable water (moisture in a column above the surface). This is well below the average for the date of about 0.90”. Soundings from Brownsville, TX, and Lake Charles, LA, were also less moist than average for this time of year.

It may take several more days before the Gulf flow will be able to bring a richer supply of moisture into the severe weather belt. Moreover, the upper-level features moving through the country over the next few days aren’t especially cold aloft. This will cut down on the contrast with the warmer, moister air below, which in turn will keep the air from being as unstable as it could be.


Figure 2. Winds at the 250-mb level, about xx miles above the ground, will be howling at more than 100 knots (115 mph) in a pocket approaching the Southern Plains at 6:00 pm CDT Thursday, according to this 12-hour forecast from the 12Z Thursday run of the GFS model. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 3. A line of strong thunderstorms was projected by the 12Z Thursday run of the 3-km NAM model to be in place across western TX/OK/KS at 8:00 pm CDT Thursday, with more isolated storms over northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Version 4 of the NAM, with an upgraded horizontal resolution of 3 kilometers (roughly 2 miles) across the entire contiguous U.S., was introduced on March 15, 2017. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Day by day
The relatively modest instability on Thursday will favor storms with strong downbursts along the dry line but will make it tougher for intense supercells to consolidate, which greatly reduces the threat of a widespread tornado outbreak. I would expect the best odds for a sustained supercell, perhaps with one or more tornadoes, in northwest Kansas or southwest Nebraska, where the nose of the moist low-level return flow will wrap around a surface low beneath strong upper-level forcing. On the other side of this low, wind-whipped snow may create blizzard conditions by early Friday across parts of eastern Colorado just east of Denver.

Another round of storms is expected on Friday from eastern OK and TX into Arkansas and Louisiana. It remains to be seen how the leftover storms and cloud cover from Thursday night will affect the prospects for Friday. Again, the most likely outcome is a squall line with pockets of high wind and large hail. The best odds for any tornadic supercells may be toward the north end of the risk area, from southeast Kansas into northern Arkansas and southern Missouri, if enough unstable air can make it to this region. Low-level winds will be backing toward a south-southeast direction across this area, which should enhance wind shear. A modest severe threat should again emerge on Saturday, this time across Mississippi and Alabama, as the upper-level low and surface features continue sweeping eastward. As shown in Figure 1, NOAA/SPC’s Storm Prediction Center has slight risk areas in effect for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with the highest localized odds of severe weather at just 15% on each day. (Day 1 tornado odds are even lower, peaking at 2% along the dry line).

The next sequence of severe weather should kick off Sunday in deja-vu fashion across northern Texas and Oklahoma as a second upper-level low moves across, a bit weaker and further south than Thursday’s upper low. It’s not yet clear how much moisture will have returned by then, but a compact severe weather threat late Sunday is certainly possible—as suggested in SPC’s Day 4 outlook—perhaps expanding on Monday into the Mississippi Valley.

Two more upper-level lows are projected to move across the Southern Plains later next week. Models remain in disagreement on how these will evolve, but they may be even further south than their predecessors, so the most focused area for severe weather by that point could end up being Texas. Several bouts of heavy rain appear likely from parts of KS to TX and points east, which might not be a bad thing at all. This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor shows that drought conditions now cover 64% of the south-central U.S., up from 55% last week.

We’ll be back with a new post on Friday.

Bob Henson

Figure X. Total precipitation projected by the GFS model run from 06Z Thursday, March 23, 2017, for the 8-day period ending at 06Z (1:00 am EDT) Friday, March 31, 2017. The exact locations of heavy precipitation over the Southern Plains are likely to vary in subsequent model runs. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson...
thanks for the lunch time read
general risk I would say
but nothing too extreme
just lots of rain off and on
Thanks for the update on the severe weather Bob Henson! Hope everyone in the affected areas remains safe and that we don't have an unexpected tornado outbreak.

NWS Slidel New Orleans Discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 344 am CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

Short term...
in typical springtime fashion, the area will be impacted every few
days by a new weather system. Starting off with today, an upper
ridge will be passing over the Gulf south. This will lead to second
day of near record high temperatures across the forecast area. Mav
guidance was the starting point but increased Max temps from there
by a few degrees or so.

Friday will be the first of impactful weather to the County Warning Area. An upper
level trough currently moving into Southern California will be
racing across the southern rockies Thursday and into the Central
Plains Friday. A few showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop
over the forecast area ahead of this approaching system. Intensity
and coverage will be quite limited due to minimal instability in
place and precip water value of barely over an inch. As the upper
and surface troughs move closer to the area during the evening and
overnight hours, mid level temps will drop while surface moisture
increases. This will increase instability quite a bit in the mid
levels with relatively steep lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 1000
j/kg. Low level shear isnt overly impressive at less than 30 knots but
there is some turning with height. All those parameters indicated a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms to develop as the surface
trough moves through. The biggest uncertainty attm is timing. The
GFS is about 6 hours quicker than the European model (ecmwf).

The bulk of strong activity should be shifting from western portions
of the County Warning Area to eastern by late morning into the afternoon hours with
showers tapering off Saturday night. Temperatures will cool somewhat
behind the boundary but not expecting a drop of any significance.

.Long term...
Conditions will be much quieter on Sunday as the trough exits and
weak ridging passing over. Increasing heights will allow
temperatures to rebound with mid 80s returning for the day. This
day of partly cloudy skies will be short lived as a weak trough
races across the Southern Plains. Strong surface heating and
increasing moisture will lead to afternoon thunderstorm
development Monday over the region. A few strong to possibly
severe storms could be possible.

Tuesday and Wednesday are looking to be on the drier side but a few
stray showers will be possible as subsidence will not be overly
strong.

Meffer

From the last blog.

No more snow during the Winter for Michigan?
I mean come on, seriously?

Michigan snowfall averages anywhere from 208" (upper peninsula) to 31" (southeast coastal region).
Lansing Michigan is actually 11" above normal so far for 2017.
Link
For some more snowfall climate information about Michigan.
Link
This is a precursor to many much more dangerous systems coming in April and May. With the Gulf for the first time in history not getting lower than 73 degrees and the Gulf way above average the later season risk should really be a significant one. With the huge snow pack out West and much of California out of drought there will be more moisture for the systems coming off the Pacific to feed into and this combination together could give us a really bad tornado scenario moving forward. Not to mention this combination will likely lead to one or more 1/1000 year rain events if the recent past is any indicator.
Quoting 9. DeepSeaRising:

This the precursor to many much more dangerous systems coming in April and May. With the Gulf for the first time in history not getting lower than 73 degrees and the Gulf way above average the later season risk should really be a significant one. With the huge snow pack out West and much of California out of drought there will be more moisture for the systems coming off the Pacific to feed into and this combination together could give us a really bad tornado scenario moving forward. Not to mention this combination will likely lead to one or more 1/1000 year rain events if the recent past is any indicator.



The August Louisiana "Rain with No Name"

The disaster of the 2016 Atlantic Season.

Added ZERO Ace as well.


Excellent analysis for the next several days Mr. Henson.  As is normal for the Spring Severe weather season tornado outbreaks, warm Gulf flow into the plains colliding with the cooler air from fronts passing over the Rockies in the plains, coupled with favorable Conus jet activity which increases mid-level vorticity, is the typical set-up for tornado outbreaks.  Currently, and as you have noted, while the fronts and embedded lows are coming across, and jet appears to be in the right location, the Gulf is presently bone dry and that moist flow is the missing component for this round.  Have to take it day by day as you have noted on this one as all the factors for a severe tornadic outbreak are not gelling at the moment.


/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE15.GIF

Addendum: Louisiana’s no-name stormEarly, Late, and Far-Flung: The Eclectic 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season
By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters , 2:11 PM CST on November 30, 2016


One other event deserves mention here, even though it’s not officially part of the 2016 tropical season: the slow-moving disturbance that dumped colossal amounts of rain on southern Louisiana in mid-August, causing 13 deaths and an estimated $10 - 15 billion in damage. Because surface winds were light and the surface low stayed generally onshore, the system was never declared a tropical cyclone by the National Hurricane Center. At the same time, for much of its life the storm was a symmetric warm-core low, the same type of structure associated with tropical cyclones. Regardless of its classification, the storm behaved much like other tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes that have taken their time moving through the Gulf Coast region. Some parts of Louisiana recorded more than 20" of rain in 48 hours, which qualifies as a 1-in-1,000 year rainfall event (having a 0.1 percent chance of occurring at a particular location in any given year), according to the NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. The highest rainfall total from the storm was 31.39” in Watson, Louisiana. The storm system carried near-record amounts of atmospheric moisture, drawn from the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic, where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were at near-record levels.

For more perspective on the 2016 Atlantic season, check out Dr. Brian McNoldy’s wrap-up (Capital Weather Gang) and Dr. Phil Klotzbach’s seasonal summary at Colorado State University. We’ll be back with a new post on Friday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

I look forward to many more great conversations with you all on WU through Discus. Once I figure it out. Hope the commenting format makes it so we can all stay connected and keep this going and maybe it will even grow the crowd and add more voices of reason and logic to the group. Gro made blobs a things, if he can convince us blobs are real (which of coarse they are), then I hope he can convince his bosses that letting him on WU through Discus is an okay allowance. I'm not really looking forward to this but I hope these feelings are proven wrong and that this new format will not change how we operate too much as a community. Blog has been a real blessing to me as many of you have been as well. I am thankful for WU, what Jeff was able to accomplish, the blog, and all the wonderful people here who have taught me so much and been very kind and accepting of me.
Will only take a few more tornadoes for 2017 to be at a record number for the time of year:



Link
We lost another great Musician.

Boston Drummer Sib Hashian
Collapse's, Dies on Rock Cruise Ship



As would be expected Haiti requested the retirement of the name Matthew

In the light of the extent of the damage caused by the disaster that occurred in Haiti in the wake of Hurricane Matthew from 3 to 5 October 2016, the representative of Haiti asked the Hurricane Committee to remove the name Matthew and replace it with another name as prescribed in the WMO documents.
Strong Storms w/ Severe Cells moving into E Central FL along backdoor front

Tornado Warning w/ Very Nasty Looking Cells E. Central FL-
Cold Air Aloft, Mid LVL Disturbance, Backdoor Cold Front Convergence creating a Marginal Risk for S/E FL Today-
Tornado Warning
FLC093-111-231815-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0010.170323T1740Z-170323T1815Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
140 PM EDT THU MAR 23 2017

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Western St. Lucie County in east central Florida...
Southeastern Okeechobee County in east central Florida...

* Until 215 PM EDT

* At 140 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles southwest of Pointe West, or 12 miles
southwest of Vero Beach South, moving southwest at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
western St. Lucie and southeastern Okeechobee Counties, including
the following locations: Basswood Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued
for the same area.

&&

LAT...LON 2725 8088 2756 8065 2756 8052 2752 8044
2720 8058 2721 8068 2716 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 027DEG 29KT 2749 8058

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Johnson

How Broadcast Networks Covered Climate Change In 2016

In 2016, evening newscasts and Sunday shows on ABC, CBS, and NBC, as well as Fox Broadcast Co.'s Fox News Sunday, collectively decreased their total coverage of climate change by 66 percent compared to 2015, even though there were a host of important climate-related stories, including the announcement of 2015 as the hottest year on record, the signing of the Paris climate agreement, and numerous climate-related extreme weather events. There were also two presidential candidates to cover, and they held diametrically opposed positions on the Clean Power Plan, the Paris climate agreement, and even on whether climate change is a real, human-caused phenomenon. Apart from PBS, the networks also failed to devote significant coverage to climate-related policies, but they still found the time to uncritically air climate denial -- the majority of which came from now-President Donald Trump and his team.

Link
Possible change to the Retirement of the names of Tropical Cyclones?

6.4 The criteria which is proposed for retiring tropical cyclone names makes use of what is the current criteria, but adds the element of the wind field. The proposed criteria are as follows:

1. The Tropical Cyclone must be a hurricane with a sustained maximum 1-minute wind of 96 mph (154 kmh-1) or higher;

2. The loss of human life and/or major infrastructural damage;

3. Other special reasons.
Thanks for the update, and best wishes to the US. Hopefully nobody will get harmed by severe weather!

Meanwhile southwestern Europe proudly presents the cold beauty of low "Gregor":


A pronounced cyclonic vortex is situated over SW Europe and serves as main player for organized thunderstorms during the forecast. The mid-level air mass within that vortex remains cold with readings well below -30C (-22F) at 500 hPa. Numerous impulses circle the main vortex.

From Estofex' just published lengthy discussion of Gregor's threats, esp:

A level 2 was issued for NE Spain, extreme SW France and the Balearic Islands mainly for excessive rain. A tornado threat exists, probably maximized over the Balearic Islands.


Peru Floods Highlight Challenge of a Warming Planet Says UN

Mr. Glasser said: “Few countries were better prepared for the recent global El Niño than Peru so it is doubly concerning that the country has been overwhelmed by this occurrence of local El Niño-like conditions which have flipped the country from widespread drought to enormous flooding that has taken dozens of lives, affected over half a million people and left many homeless.

“This is a large scale singular event which needs to be viewed in the context of a warming planet where episodes of extreme weather variability are becoming more evident. Just a few months ago Peru was suffering from a drought and record wildfires and now, according to Peru’s National Emergency Operations Centre, 75 people have lost their lives in floods, many are missing, and over 625,000 people are affected including more than 70,000 who have lost their homes.


Link
Forecast high in the low 50s may be hard to make in S C IL unless S winds take over as clouds with rain moving NW to SE. Had about tenth in gauge at lunch, truck said 39. Site I look at is only showing 38 an hour later, also shows light SE winds, pressure dropping, though at 30.25". Could use more rain, so liked 7) showing darker greens over us Sat. Had enough severe weather in area in Feb., so can wait until Apr or later for return. Some nice slow soakers w/ some temps to bring out the morels would be appreciated.
Jim Pettit just came out with another graph that shows how far extent anomalies have developed in the Arctic:



Via wili / March 23, 2017 @ Scribbler

In his words:

” I’ve added a new graph to my stable, this one plotting year-to-date NSIDC SIE extent anomalies for the current year, alongside the ten previous years with the lowest average annual anomalies, plus decadal average lines for the 80s,90s, and 00s…

This graph does a good job showing just how much more sunlight-absorbing open water there now is during those months with high solar insolation. A few days with less ice-covered water won’t change much, obviously, but when that extra sea surface is exposed to the summer sun for months on end, the cumulative effect becomes part of a powerful feedback loop.

A few things really stand out to me:
–the deep 2017 anomaly (red line)
–last year’s recordsetting average anomaly (orange)
–2012’s wild June-October plunge (violet)

i suspect that 2017 will follow a trajectory similar to last year’s through June, then steepen a bit after that through the minimum, though as always there’s no way to know. Anyway, you can find it at my climate graphs page, or by the image URL.”


Link

Low resembling a subtropical cyclone east of the Bahamas on latest ECMWF run.
91P off the northeastern coast of Australia:








(Saved image. Click to enlarge). Australia with 91P in the upper right corner and another inland cyclone in the northwest of the country.
15. Patrap
1:10 PM EDT on March 23, 2017
6
We lost another great Musician.
Boston Drummer Sib Hashian

My Wife and I were actually listening to the remastered CD of Boston (first album) from 1976 in the car over the weekend driving back from South Florida. More Than a Feeling is the first song that I had to learn for my first band in the 70's. THAT album is still one of the best rock and roll albums of the past 50 years, the production values, quality of the musicianship, and quality of the songs is waaay above most of the stuff that has come since. And all recorded as a demo tape, on analog gear, in Tom Shultz's basement................We also lost Brad Delp to suicide a few years back but Tom is still alive and kickin.....................Condolences to the family and friends of Mr. Hashian.
Quoting 22. nrtiwlnvragn:

Possible change to the Retirement of the names of Tropical Cyclones?

6.4 The criteria which is proposed for retiring tropical cyclone names makes use of what is the current criteria, but adds the element of the wind field. The proposed criteria are as follows:

1. The Tropical Cyclone must be a hurricane with a sustained maximum 1-minute wind of 96 mph (154 kmh-1) or higher;

2. The loss of human life and/or major infrastructural damage;

3. Other special reasons.


So they are going to make it where category 1 hurricanes and tropical storms can't be retired? I strongly disagree with that. A storm doesn't have to have strong winds to be destructive. Look at Allison 2001, Erika 2015, etc.
Quoting 31. HurricaneFan:


So they are going to make it where category 1 hurricanes and tropical storms can't be retired? I strongly disagree with that. A storm doesn't have to have strong winds to be destructive. Look at Allison 2001, Erika 2015, etc.


It is a proposal Submitted by the British Caribbean Territories, no word that I know of whether or not the committee agrees.
Six years of rain in one month for Peru
BBC weather video, 22nd March 2017 Last updated at 16:58
Weeks of heavy rain across parts of Peru has led to some of the country's worst flooding in two decades.
The city of Piura, in northwest Peru, has had 448mm (17.6 inches) - almost six years' worth - of rain in one month, with further rain to come over the coming days.
BBC Weather's Louise Lear explains what has caused such heavy rainfall.

Foto: Markus Hauschild, BFF, Hafenweg

German scientists test world's 'largest artificial sun'
by Zoe Tabary | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Thursday, 23 March 2017 16:37 GMT
Scientists in Germany are testing what they describe as "the world's largest artificial sun," which they hope could pave the way toward creating hydrogen to use as a green fuel.
The system called Synlight - being developed at the German Aerospace Center near Cologne - is an array of 149 bright film projector spotlights. They produce light about 10,000 times stronger than typical sunlight.
The test aims to find new ways to create hydrogen to fuel vehicles such as cars and planes, explained Bernhard Hoffschmidt, the director of the Center's Institute for Solar Research. ...


Another news which will hopefully pan out as successful:
Europe poised for total ban on bee-harming pesticides
Exclusive: Draft regulations seen by the Guardian reveal the European commission wants to prohibit the insecticides that cause ‘acute risks to bees’
The Guardian, Thursday 23 March 2017 16.20 GMT
The world’s most widely used insecticides would be banned from all fields across Europe under draft regulations from the European commission, seen by the Guardian.
The documents are the first indication that the powerful commission wants a complete ban and cite “high acute risks to bees”. A ban could be in place this year if the proposals are approved by a majority of EU member states.
Bees and other pollinators are vital for many food crops but have been declining for decades due to habitat loss, disease and pesticide use. The insecticides, called neonicotinoids, have been in use for over 20 years and have been linked to serious harm in bees. ...

Symmetric warm-core???
Quoting 35. HurricaneFan:



There seems to be something of a model consensus about a low forming with shallow warm core. But whether it will be symmetric, or even have winds strong enough for classification as subtropical depression, is an open question. I'd give odds of 10%, that it will become a SD, and 5%, that it will become a SS.
That potential low, if I read the panel below correct, it set around the March 27th time frame. SST's are marginal there at present and wind shear is prohibitive but you cannot rule a possible sheared low; have to see if it shows up on the 48 hour TCFP come next Monday:





Quoting 34. barbamz:


Foto: Markus Hauschild, BFF, Hafenweg

German scientists test world's 'largest artificial sun'
by Zoe Tabary | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Thursday, 23 March 2017 16:37 GMT
Scientists in Germany are testing what they describe as "the world's largest artificial sun," which they hope could pave the way toward creating hydrogen to use as a green fuel.
The system called Synlight - being developed at the German Aerospace Center near Cologne - is an array of 149 bright film projector spotlights. They produce light about 10,000 times stronger than typical sunlight.
The test aims to find new ways to create hydrogen to fuel vehicles such as cars and planes, explained Bernhard Hoffschmidt, the director of the Center's Institute for Solar Research. ...


Another news which will hopefully pan out as successful:
Europe poised for total ban on bee-harming pesticides
Exclusive: Draft regulations seen by the Guardian reveal the European commission wants to prohibit the insecticides that cause ‘acute risks to bees’
The Guardian, Thursday 23 March 2017 16.20 GMT
The world’s most widely used insecticides would be banned from all fields across Europe under draft regulations from the European commission, seen by the Guardian.
The documents are the first indication that the powerful commission wants a complete ban and cite “high acute risks to bees”. A ban could be in place this year if the proposals are approved by a majority of EU member states.
Bees and other pollinators are vital for many food crops but have been declining for decades due to habitat loss, disease and pesticide use. The insecticides, called neonicotinoids, have been in use for over 20 years and have been linked to serious harm in bees. ...



Hydrogen, our most abundant element in the Universe. It was hydrogen fuel that got us to the Moon. It was the fuel that powered every Shuttle flight to orbit.

if we can mass produce it along with a engineered auto to use it...we can reduce our transportation CO2 emissions by a third globally alone.
you looking at the potential low forming just east of the turcs?
Quoting 38. elioe:


ahhh yes you are I scrolled down and its being talked about....rain for bermuda!
Flash Appeal for Madagascar Intense Tropical Cyclone Enawo / Overview Of The Crisis
(From UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) ReliefWeb.int - March 23.
Quoting 41. 19N81W:

ahhh yes you are I scrolled down and its being talked about....rain for bermuda!


The rain is likely to miss Bermuda, as the system passes by the island at a distance of 300 - 400 miles:

A "Ridge" will be building over the mid-Atlantic starting this weekend and if you want to see TC formation for so early in the season,that is one positive factor working in the lows favor.Not sure it will be warm core but I do think we have a chance to see another pre-season storm if not this upcoming week then sometime in May.
seems the eastern carib has been getting some rains this winter....unfortunately things still very dry in the western carib....the odd isolated rain but still very very dry
Quoting 44. elioe:



The rain is likely to miss Bermuda, as the system passes by the island at a distance of 300 - 400 miles:


Angela Fritz%u200FVerified account @angelafritz 4h
WOW. @wunderground is removing its community blogging feature -- arguably what made the site big in the first place.

Angela Fritz%u200FVerified account
@angelafritz
This more than any other change in @wunderground's history (I was there for more than a few) upsets me the most. IBM is dismantling WU.

Angela Fritz%u200FVerified account @angelafritz 4h4 hours ago
If you appreciated this feature and are going to miss it, give a shout out to @AaronTheBaron. He created the blogs from scratch in 2004.

Angela Fritz%u200FVerified account @angelafritz 3h
@megak @AaronTheBaron Yeah, that's a good question. Honestly this makes me wonder what the value is for IBM if they're slashing users...
I will keep on blogging on here whether in the present form, or on disqus, or whatever form until you pry my dead cold hands off the key board............................(This place has become a fixture and reference point in my life)
?

http://www.prweb.com/releases/prweb14025554.htm

http://www.globalweatheroscillations.com/hurrican e-season-weak-or-strong

was community blogging where anyone could do a blog?
Would love to see if the ban on that class of pesticides helps the bee population. I wonder how long it would take to see results? Since bees are short-lived, maybe quickly?

Quoting 34. barbamz:


Foto: Markus Hauschild, BFF, Hafenweg

German scientists test world's 'largest artificial sun'
by Zoe Tabary | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Thursday, 23 March 2017 16:37 GMT
Scientists in Germany are testing what they describe as "the world's largest artificial sun," which they hope could pave the way toward creating hydrogen to use as a green fuel.
The system called Synlight - being developed at the German Aerospace Center near Cologne - is an array of 149 bright film projector spotlights. They produce light about 10,000 times stronger than typical sunlight.
The test aims to find new ways to create hydrogen to fuel vehicles such as cars and planes, explained Bernhard Hoffschmidt, the director of the Center's Institute for Solar Research. ...


Another news which will hopefully pan out as successful:
Europe poised for total ban on bee-harming pesticides
Exclusive: Draft regulations seen by the Guardian reveal the European commission wants to prohibit the insecticides that cause ‘acute risks to bees’
The Guardian, Thursday 23 March 2017 16.20 GMT
The world’s most widely used insecticides would be banned from all fields across Europe under draft regulations from the European commission, seen by the Guardian.
The documents are the first indication that the powerful commission wants a complete ban and cite “high acute risks to bees”. A ban could be in place this year if the proposals are approved by a majority of EU member states.
Bees and other pollinators are vital for many food crops but have been declining for decades due to habitat loss, disease and pesticide use. The insecticides, called neonicotinoids, have been in use for over 20 years and have been linked to serious harm in bees. ...

From the Guardian:

Global warming is increasing rainfall rates

A new study looks at the complex relationship between global warming and increased precipitation

[...]

It’s a well-known scientific principle that warmer air holds more water vapor. In fact, the amount of moisture that can be held in air grows very rapidly as temperatures increase. So, it’s expected that in general, air will get moister as the Earth warms – provided there is a moisture source. This may cause more intense rainfalls and snow events, which lead to increased risk of flooding.

But warmer air can also more quickly evaporate water from surfaces. This means that areas where it’s not precipitating dry out more quickly. In fact, it’s likely that some regions will experience both more drought and more flooding in the future (just not at the same time!). [...]

Okay so what have we observed? It turns out our expectations were correct. Observations reveal more intense rainfalls and flooding in some areas. But in other regions there’s more evaporation and drying with increased drought. Some areas experience both.

Some questions remain. When temperatures get too high, there’s no continued increase in intense rain events. In fact, heavy precipitation events decrease at the highest temperatures. There are some clear reasons for this but for brevity, regardless of where measurements are made on Earth, there appears to be an increase of precipitation with temperature up until a peak and thereafter, more warming coincides with decreased precipitation.

A new clever study by Dr. Guiling Wang from the University of Connecticut and her colleagues has looked into this and they’ve made a surprising discovery. Their work was just published in Nature Climate Change. They report that the peak temperature (the temperature where maximum precipitation occurs) is not fixed in space or time. It is increasing in a warming world.

The idea is shown in the sketch below. Details vary with location but, as the world warms, there is a shift from one curve to the next, from left to right. The result is a shift such that more intense precipitation occurs at higher temperatures in future, while the drop-off moves to even higher temperatures.


An idealized example of increasing precipitation curves as the world warms for the Midwest. Illustration: John Abraham

The authors also looked at how we characterize the temperature/precipitation relationship. Traditionally, we have related precipitation events to the local average temperature. However, it’s clear that there’s a strong relationship between the peak temperature and the precipitation rates. In fact, relations reveal that precipitation rates are increasing between 5 and 10% for every degree C increase. The expected rate of increase, just based on thermodynamics is 7%.

The authors find that in some parts of the globe, the relationship is even stronger. For instance, in the tropics, there’s more than a 10% increase in precipitation for a degree Celsius increase in temperature. This is not unexpected because precipitation releases latent heat, which can in turn invigorate storms.

From a practical standpoint, this helps us plan for climate change (it is already occurring) including planning resiliency. In the United States, there has been a marked increase in the most intense rainfall events across the country. This has resulted in more severe flooding throughout the country.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Am a little confused about disqus. Is this a facebook like thing that I have to join to continue to access the blog and its comments? or is it something I need to just comment, while still being able to read the comments of others. Is there a cost? How does one joint? Perhaps someone better savvy with social media etc might provide me some insight. Thanks.
hopefully a monsoon trough sets up late May for a friends in the NW Carib. they need a good soaking
OMG
Arctic Sea Ice Reaches Another Record Low
NASA Goddard








The March 7, 2017, Arctic sea ice maximum extent was a record low, due to warmer-than-average temperatures, winds unfavorable to ice expansion, and a series of storms. Antarctic sea ice also broke a record with its annual minimum extent on March 3.

Credits: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Download this video in HD formats and view full credit information from NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio
Quoting 53. rod2635:

Am a little confused about disqus. Is this a facebook like thing that I have to join to continue to access the blog and its comments? or is it something I need to just comment, while still being able to read the comments of others. Is there a cost? How does one joint? Perhaps someone better savvy with social media etc might provide me some insight. Thanks.


you just need an email address! and i dont realllllly know, but im signed up and am hoping not a lot will change in terms of how the blog works, and the ability to comment read other comments. when you sign up just make sure you click on the 'enable me to comment on sites' button.

Link
Quoting 55. Gearsts:

OMG



do the colours denote cloud temps? orrrr, i know its infrared radar..and that normal radar with those colours denotes intensity of precipitation...but those reds in the boiling tops must be showing the coldest temps at the top of the cumulonimbus? thanx!

i love the way the waves propagate outwards once the clouds reach the threshold of vertical development. you can literally see them like a reverse stone in a pond...or somethinng...lol
Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am; things have picked up around South Florida this PM but the sheer remains oppressive: Ya Neva Know.........






That is a Hi resolution Satellite image from GOES-16., and is not a radar image


https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherunderground/
Quoting 57. earthisanocean:
you just need an email address! and i dont realllllly know, but im signed up and am hoping not a lot will change in terms of how the blog works, and the ability to comment read other comments. when you sign up just make sure you click on the 'enable me to comment on sites' button.

Link

Wundergrounders are testing Disqus here:
https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherundergroun d/
March 23, 2017
NASA Participates in the NOAA GOES-16 Field Campaign


NOAA's GOES-16 satellite is ready to embark on another major milestone— The GOES-16 Field Campaign. During a three month long event, a combination of NOAA and NASA planes, sensors and satellites will fine-tune GOES-16’s brand new instruments.


Artist's concept of GOES-16 (GOES-R) in orbit.
Credits: NOAA/NASA
NASA successfully launched NOAA's GOES-R satellite at 6:42 p.m. EST on November 19, 2016 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida and it was renamed GOES-16 when it achieved orbit. GOES-16 is now observing the planet from an equatorial view approximately 22,300 miles above the surface of the Earth.

Since launch the GOES-R team, which consists of scientists and engineers from both NOAA and NASA has been working around the clock to power on the satellite’s advanced instruments and to get their data back to Earth.

During this campaign, a team of instrument scientists, meteorologists, GOES-16 engineers, and specialized pilots will use an outfit of high-altitude planes, ground-based sensors, unmanned aircraft systems, the International Space Station, and the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP polar-orbiting satellite to collect measurements across the United States.

Ranging from arid deserts and areas of dense vegetation, to open oceans and storms exhibiting lightning activity, these measurements will cover nearly everything NOAA’s GOES satellites see.

While these measurements are being taken on Earth, GOES-16’s operators will be obtaining similar measurements of the same locations using two of the satellite’s most revolutionary instruments—the Advanced Baseline Imager and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. The two data sets will be analyzed and compared by meteorologists to validate and calibrate the sensors on the satellite.

Making Data Accurate

Data from NOAA’s GOES satellites are used 24 hours a day, seven days a week for everything from flight plan forecasting and air quality alerts to potentially life-saving severe storm and tornado warnings. They provide vital information to support storm tracking, seasonal predictions, drought outlooks, and space weather predictions.

It’s NOAA’s mission to ensure that these data are as precise, accurate, and readily available as possible. Because of this, GOES-16’s data are going through an exhaustive testing phase, being checked and re-checked using measurements from a vast range of verified sources before it is put into operational use.

All of the GOES-16 Field Campaign information will be permanently stored as reference data at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

Running a Field Campaign

This is the first NOAA satellite-focused field campaign since GOES-8 launched in April 1994. In many cases, the satellite’s predecessor is used to ensure that the new satellite is taking accurate measurements. When NOAA launched the Jason-3 ocean altimetry satellite, it orbited directly behind Jason-2 for several weeks in order to verify and fine-tune its instruments.

The instruments aboard GOES-16, however, are brand new and more advanced than any GOES satellite before it. So, scientists will use instruments mounted on NASA's ER-2 high-altitude aircraft, as well as various other instruments closer to Earth and one on the International Space Station, to validate what the GOES-16 satellite is seeing and fine-tune its instruments.

You Can Follow Along

The GOES-16 Field Campaign officially begins on March 22, 2017 and concludes on May 19, 2017. Throughout the campaign, progress updates, news stories, interviews, and more will be available at www.nesdis.noaa.gov and on NOAA's Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram accounts.

For more information about GOES-16, visit: www.goes-r.gov/ or www.nasa.gov/goes

Kyle Herring

NOAA

Last Updated: March 23, 2017
Editor: Karl Hille
Quoting 60. Patrap:

That is a Hi resolution Satellite image from GOES-16., and is not a radar image





ya i didnt think it was, still curious about what the colours denote! my guess is coldest cloud tops?
Quoting 51. DFWdad:

Would love to see if the ban on that class of pesticides helps the bee population. I wonder how long it would take to see results? Since bees are short-lived, maybe quickly?

I hope so. I've just heard that all the bees in a hive of a neighbour of our rural weekend house suddenly died a couple of weeks ago :-(
BTW, for all who are interested in the bee issue: The crime novel of Peter May, Coffin Road, deals with this; I've read it some weeks ago on my Kindle. The plot is set on a Hebridean Island with a lot of very bad weather around, too :-) But I don't want to betray too much, lol. LINK

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
424 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Synopsis...

latest surface analysis showed a stationary front extending from
a deep 996mb low over the Central Plains to northwest Louisiana
to Florida parishes to Mississippi coastal waters. Surface flow
was generally southeast parallel to the frontal zone. Surface
dewpoint readings were in the mid to upper 50s northeast of the
boundary except Mississippi coast with values in the lower 60s off
the sound. Dewpoint values were in the 60 to 67f southwest of the
boundary.

Upper air analysis showed a ridge axis from northeast Gulf of
Mexico to the Great Lakes region and developing closed low over
The Four Corners region. Isotach at 250mb initialized jet Max of
130 knots on the base and front side of the wave/low.

&&

Short term...
deep surface trough/low over the Central Plains will begin to dive
east southeast through Friday. Strong jet Max off the southern
rockies will allow the system to entrain dry air. This will
tightened the moisture axis along the disturbance ahead of the
closed low. Surface base cape values will increase across the
west zones Friday afternoon with values 300 to 500 j/kg. However,
the most of the lift will occur Friday night into Saturday. As a
result, will maintain slight chance of convection Friday
afternoon.

Low level southeast to south flow and southwest flow aloft will
increase 0-3km helicity values 250 to 400 M/S Friday evening
through early Saturday mainly across the north half of the
forecast area. Isolated storms that will have a chance to yield a
tornado will likely occur when the initial convection moves east
into northwest zones around midnight Friday night. Cape values do
increase with values of 700 j/kg across southwest Mississippi to
1500 j/kg along the Louisiana. With the upper level disturbance
rotating southeast through the forecast area Friday night a few
storms may contain damaging winds and hail. 500mb temps may dip
to -17f across northwest zones early Saturday behind the
disturbance. As a result, a few storms may contain hail. As for
now, damaging winds and hail storms are the main threat and
isolated tornadoes as a secondary threat due to the small timing
window.

Long term...
with no true frontal passage over the weekend, low level moisture
will remain in play. However, mid layer moisture will be pushed
east provide a break on Sunday. A short wave will Rake across the
north zones on Monday yielding a few storms, and few of these
storms could be strong but below severe limits.

Meanwhile in the latter part of the forecast, a very strong
system will approach the lower Mississippi Valley late Wednesday
into Thursday. While 7 to 8 days away, the pattern does support a
round of strong to severe across the forecast area late next week.
Impressive...


Source Climate Reanalyzer, NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis:

Arctic sea ice maximum at record low for third straight year (March 22, 2017)

(...) Final analysis pending
At the beginning of April, NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of winter conditions, along with monthly data for March. For more information about the maximum extent and what it means, see the NSIDC Icelights post, the Arctic sea ice maximum.
From the Bad Astronomy blog:

Our planet is melting at both ends: Arctic and Antarctica hit record low ice extents



[...]

It’s rare in science you can say something with anything near 100% certainty. And yet, here we are: Climate change due to global warming is real, and it’s because of us. We add 40 billion tons of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, into the air every year. This upsets the Earth’s natural heat balance, allowing a small amount of warming sunlight to stick around rather than get radiated out into space.

Our planet is heating up, humans are the reason, and we know this to be a fact. Yet our politicians in charge deny this very simple and critical truth [the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology just announced a hearing on climate science for next week, and invited four scientists to testify; one is realist Michael Mann (invited by the minority Committee members, of course) and the other three are well-known figures who downplay the effects of global warming on climate], even going so far as to deny the incredibly basic science about greenhouse effects we’ve known for over a century.

We’ll be seeing more statements and legislation coming from this science-denying Congressional majority as time goes by. When it happens, I urge you to contact your Senators and Representatives. Let them know that climate change is real, it’s now, and not only is it a threat national security, but denial of it is a national security as well, and we have to do what we can to stop it.

Click here to read full article." target="_blank">here to read full article.
Quoting 66. 999Ai2016:

Impressive...


Some incredible plunges to come. E.g. when Hudson Bay melts out - very soon.
Quoting 64. barbamz:


I hope so. I've just heard that all the bees in a hive of a neighbour of our rural weekend house suddenly died a couple of weeks ago :-(
BTW, for all who are interested in the bee issue: The crime novel of Peter May, Coffin Road, deals with this; I've read it some weeks ago on my Kindle. The plot is set on a Hebridean Island with a lot of very bad weather around, too :-) But I don't want to betray too much, lol. LINK

Yay, thanks!
From Forbes:

Why People Think Weather Forecasts Are Bad When They Are Actually Pretty Good

An amusing meme was getting around the Internet this week reminding people to consider their "March Madness" bracket "busts" the next time they ridicule a meteorologist for trying to predict the future. Meteorologists are familiar with cliche statements like "it must be nice to get paid to be wrong 50% of the time." I often wonder why meteorologists seem to bear the brunt of ridicule and angst when so many others professions forecast with varying (and often lesser) degrees of success (economists, demographers, sports analysts, political pundits, investors and some aspects of the medical field). The reality is that modern-day weather forecasts are pretty accurate so I decided to explore reasons people think they are bad.

Click here to read more.


Snow totals from March Blizzard of 2017
Quoting 68. cRRKampen:


Some incredible plunges to come. E.g. when Hudson Bay melts out - very soon.

Multi-year sea ice appears to be on the verge of extinction.


There will be a threat of severe weather for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi late Friday night through the daytime hours on Saturday. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop over Texas on Friday and move eastward into the area near the Atchafalaya River late Friday night, continuing to move eastward during the day Saturday.
Hey guys, I'm doing a podcast for independent adjusters and I'm looking for an amateur meteorologist to interview from time to time through this spring. I'd love to hear from you guys. jheenan@royaladjustingservices.com.
all eyes on the "gold coast" developing cyclone
Round-up from German DW:
Climate change makes weather extremes the new normal
On World Meteorological Day, DW provides an overview of how global warming is changing our lived experience of the climate.
DW, March 23.

Something for our friends of contrails ;-)
Changes to flight paths could reduce aircraft effect on climate
Small alterations to routing, which would add about 1% to airlines’ operating costs, could have significant results
Guardian, Thursday 23 March 2017 21.30 GMT

There was a discussion earlier on WU where to move due to CC. Folks in Michigan might get some company ;-))
Everyone will move to Michigan in 2100 due to climate change, Popular Science says
updated March 22, 2017 at 12:25 PM

With these latest random findings a good night from Germany.
Wind speeds in the Texas Panhandle today were 50 mph . This fire started around 3 PM .

Forest Service: 5,500 acres burned, containment levels still at 0

ROBERTS COUNTY, TX (KFDA) -
The Texas A&M Forest Service said Thursday evening that 5,500 acres have been burned in the Rankin Ranch Road Fire, a large blaze burning near Miami in Roberts County.

Quoting 76. islander101010:

all eyes on the "gold coast" developing cyclone

Cyclone preparations step up as tropical low expected to strengthen off north Queensland
ABC, Updated 10 minutes ago


Source.

Huge and impressive system, nevertheless latest model runs appeased a bit. Wait and see whether they're right!



BTW, if memory serves me right I've read in an article earlier that a tropical cyclone could help to rescue dying Barrier Reef (for a while) as it would help to cool waters. Fingers crossed!
Arctic Entering Its Hottest Period in 2.5 Million Years as Last Remnants of Laurentide Melt Away

“This is the disappearance of a feature from the last glacial age, which would have probably survived without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.” — Adrien Gilbert

*****

There are many ways to tell the Earth’s temperature. One is by measuring how warm the atmosphere is near the surface. Another is to track the heat content of the world’s oceans. Still another is by taking account of melting glaciers and comparing thaw lines with times in the geological past


Link
Quoting 76. islander101010:

all eyes on the "gold coast" developing cyclone


Good news for the Great Barrier Reef.
Google Says Its Job Is to Promote Climate Change Conspiracy Theories

Yesterday, I wrote a short post about Google’s Top Stories module. If you googled “great barrier reef” on Wednesday, you’d be presented with a Breitbart article filled with insane ravings about how climate change isn’t real, featured at the very top in the site’s highlighted “Top Stories” box. When I went to the company’s press team to see what was up, they assured me it was perfectly normal for an article written by a noted climate change denier to get pinned to the top of Google’s results.

Link
Quoting 67. Xandra:

...even going so far as to deny the incredibly basic science about greenhouse effects we’ve known for over a century.


I wish the Trump administration would show consistency in their CO2 emissivity/absorptivity denial. They should demand, that in any new coal power plant design and construction, CO2 should also be considered transparent in infrared. I would like to see what happens, when such power plant begins operation. Even though I would probably die of laughter...

Quoting 71. 999Ai2016:


Multi-year sea ice appears to be on the verge of extinction.


Well, in the wide basin of Arctic, yes. But I don't think that old ice will be able to disappear from all the straits of Canadian archipelago soon. And it's even harder to melt the ice from fjords of those islands (and Greenland).
Quoting 82. RobertWC:



Good news for the Great Barrier Reef.

Upon reflection ...........

And a band-aid on a sucking chest wound.
Quoting 72. BaltimoreBrian:

To the City, a Pollution Fighter. To Some Residents, an Eyesore


Someone touched her cheese.
Just for fun, the JAXA arctic sea ice extent figures for March 22:

March 22, 2016: 13,926,152 km2

March 22, 2017: 13,487,799 km2 (- 438,353 km2)
Katharine Hayhoe
Atmospheric Scientist
air date: March 23, 2017


In this episode of Overheard, scientist Katharine Hayhoe talks about the intersection of science and faith, climate change and what we as citizens can do to help.

Katharine Hayhoe is an atmospheric scientist who studies climate change. In 2014 Time Magazine recognized her as one of the top 100 Most Influential People in the world. Dr. Hayhoe is currently a professor and directs the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. She also hosts the PBS Digital Studios web series Global Weirding.


Link
Quoting 86. Snacker2:

Someone touched her cheese.
Actually, you have to expect gardens to look pretty sad after hard March freezes and wet weather.
It's rollin' now.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Mosaic Loop

South Plains Sector


Link

Levi Cowan‏
@TropicalTidbits

This baroclinic wave N of Hispaniola is an example of an *unlikely* candidate for subtrop. transition, but the brief cyclogenesis is awesome
Quoting 70. Xandra:

From Forbes:

Why People Think Weather Forecasts Are Bad When They Are Actually Pretty Good

An amusing meme was getting around the Internet this week reminding people to consider their "March Madness" bracket "busts" the next time they ridicule a meteorologist for trying to predict the future. Meteorologists are familiar with cliche statements like "it must be nice to get paid to be wrong 50% of the time." I often wonder why meteorologists seem to bear the brunt of ridicule and angst when so many others professions forecast with varying (and often lesser) degrees of success (economists, demographers, sports analysts, political pundits, investors and some aspects of the medical field). The reality is that modern-day weather forecasts are pretty accurate so I decided to explore reasons people think they are bad.

Click here to read more.


Snow totals from March Blizzard of 2017


Some of areas in SE PA have shades too low. Lancaster's official number was 9", Harrisburg received a whopping 17", whereas that map only gives Harrisburg 6-8". South of the state capital in York County was an easy foot of snow as well. I'm not sure how much of that blue strip actually occurred.

Anyways, critique aside, NWS did really good with this forecast, imo. The rain/snow line was a real concern, just too bad some sources don't do a good job at delineating that. State College's maps for me were on point. :)

(KUTV) It's been a very wet day across the state of Utah and some parts of the state will experience flooding.
By 3 p.m., a record 1.98" of rain was reported in Salt Lake City. This reading broke the record for the wettest day in March on record. The rainfall also beat out the normal precipitation for the entire month of March, which is 1.79".


Link
Quoting 92. Astrometeor:



Some of areas in SE PA have shades too low. Lancaster's official number was 9", Harrisburg received a whopping 17", whereas that map only gives Harrisburg 6-8". South of the state capital in York County was an easy foot of snow as well. I'm not sure how much of that blue strip actually occurred.

Anyways, critique aside, NWS did really good with this forecast, imo. The rain/snow line was a real concern, just too bad some sources don't do a good job at delineating that. State College's maps for me were on point. :)


That 3' bulls-eye in New York State is right over a friend's house lol. BB, you know him through my gmails with you.



If one hasn't already, take the grace of time and buy 2 NOAA Weather Alert Radio's.

One for yourself and another for a friend or neighbor.

It could save a family's life.




Numbers trickling out of Peru -

MORE than 75 people have been killed, and more than 100,000 left homeless, as Peru’s coast has been battered by the strongest rains seen in decades. Millions are without running water; more than 2,000km of roads and at least 175 bridges have been destroyed. The devastation has been caused by a “coastal El Niño”, a localised version of the global El Niño weather cycle that brings warm currents from Australia to the Pacific coast of the Americas. Peru had been braced for a big El Niño in 2016, but it did not arrive. It was not expecting a coastal version, especially of such magnitude.

Link
I planted my Spring corn today, sweet and yellow, 2 square plots.

I hope the WV infused weather can avoid my area.

2016 barely missed us here, twice.

Its like playing Russian Roulette with Cyclones and Floods.

Someone is gonna lose,..

bigly.



redskylite / March 24, 2017

Telling piece in the Conversation by the lead scientist on RRS James Clark Ross, Boaty’s parent ship, which just set sail from Chile. (Alberto Naveira Garabato.
Professor, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton).

“Around the world, deeper ocean waters have been steadily warming over the past few decades, faster than we would expect simply through overall climate change. This suggests that global warming has triggered some sort of a change in deep sea circulation, which has sent extra heat into the lowest layers of the ocean. On its maiden voyage, Boaty will help us investigate why this is.”

Link
Quoting 99. Grothar:



Maybe we just had to get one more storm before the Wunderblogs move to Disqus and Grothar leaves. Like a farewell gift. lol we'll see :)
Quoting 101. HurricaneFan:


Maybe we just had to get one more storm before the Wunderblogs move to Disqus and Grothar leaves. Like a farewell gift. lol we'll see :)


Well, I guess if we all can't go out with a bang, we'll go out with a blob.
Evening everyone

Sorry to ask a non weather related question although it does have to do with our drought.

We have had a cistern run dry and since fixed and refilled at a huge cost but no choice. It is the source for irrigation here.
I was checking it this evening and noticed an odor of diesel. I was concerned so shut the system off and have people coming to check tomorrow morning. In googling which can be dangerous I have seen that gardeners use it for weed killer. Just looking for some advice as to if anyone has had any experience with this.

Let it rain! We are desperate regardless of what our weather service says as to its impacts. We are contimplating huge collection areas for the rare rain we get which is costly.

Thanks
It's been really windy here all day. Not very pleasant, but not damaging either. I think you could call it just damn annoying the way it howls. I will personally welcome the rain if it comes. Idk, I'm not seeing like I get very much from this wave. Boy, but the wind continues to howl.

fxus64 kfwd 240013
afdfwd

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
713 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Aviation...
strong southerly winds have been the main weather story today
with gusts over 35 knots at times in the metroplex and gusts over
30 knots at Waco.

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through this evening with
southerly winds around 20 knots with some gusts over 30 knots.
Stratus will form across south Texas this evening and spread north
on a 50-knot low-level jet. Expect MVFR ceilings to move into
Waco around 06z and into the metroplex around 08z. As an upper
level trough and surface dryline approach from the west, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms may reach the I-35 corridor
before daybreak. The atmosphere is expected to be capped, so for
now have just included vcsh for the 11-16z period. The stratus
will be quickly swept to the east as the dryline passes. Winds
will shift to the southwest at 15-25 knots. Some gusts over 30
knots behind the dryline. The gusts should die off toward sunset
Friday. As Pacific cold front moves through the metroplex Friday
evening, winds will shift to the northwest at around 15 knots.

58

&&



Previous discussion... /issued 320 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/
the current upper level pattern is defined mainly by an upper
level ridge near the MS valley and an upper trough over The Four-
Corners region. At the surface, a strengthening Lee-side cyclone
will keep the tight pressure gradient going, and the resulting
strong south winds should persist well into the evening. The Wind
Advisory will remain valid through 06z tonight, and the evening
and overnight shifts can take a look at the possibility of
issuing another advisory if conditions look right tomorrow. At
this time, things look a little too borderline to issue this
early.

The strong south winds are advecting moisture northward across the
forecast area in advance of the storm system to our west. Surface
heating and strong dynamic forcing will generate convection later this
afternoon over the Texas Panhandle and west-central Texas. Activity
will likely be focused along a dryline, which will be forced
eastward as the upper trough moves east. Storms may initially
become severe, but will likely lose some of their intensity while
entering our west counties due to the lack of any appreciable
instability (mainly the result of the time of day). Still, some
gusty winds may occur (probably not any gustier than our Wind
Advisory winds from today) along with some occasional cloud to
ground lightning.

Showers and storms will cross the I-35 corridor pretty close to
Friday morning rush hour, and then begin to intensify while
moving into a more favorable convective environment across the
eastern third of the area. Damaging winds and hail will be the
primary threat Friday afternoon, mainly for areas along and east
of I-45/Highway 75.

Precipitation will work its way east of the forecast area Friday
evening, with cooler and drier air spreading in behind the dryline
and Pacific cold front. The primary concern across the western
portion of the forecast area will again be fire danger, which
will be near critical levels due to the warm, dry and windy
conditions. The Fire Weather Watch has been expanded to include
areas generally along and west of a line from Gainesville to
Granbury to Comanche. If conditions continue to look ideal for
rapidly spreading wildfires, a red flag warning may eventually be
issued.

A fast-moving shortwave trough will cross the Southern Plains on
Sunday, bringing a quick round of convection to parts of the
region. The best mid-level lapse rates and moisture will exist
over the northeastern counties, which is where pops will be
highest. Rain chances will be mainly Sunday night, and will
decrease the farther southwest you go.

A brief period of shortwave ridging aloft will bring nice weather
to the area late Monday and Tuesday. A slower-moving and deeper
upper low is then progged to cross the Desert Southwest Wednesday
and into west-central Texas Wednesday night. This system has the
potential to bring some much needed and more widespread rainfall
as it taps into deep Gulf moisture. Depending on how much
instability and shear we can muster, there may also be some
windows for severe weather. But it's still a bit too early to rely
on convective parameters which may change from model run to model
run. Either way it looks like we are in for a fairly active and
progressive pattern for the next week.

30

&&




Preliminary point temps/pops...
Dallas-ft. Worth 63 81 55 76 55 / 30 50 5 0 0
Waco 65 80 52 78 54 / 30 60 5 0 0
Paris 61 72 52 72 51 / 10 70 20 5 0
Denton 63 81 51 75 52 / 40 40 5 0 0
McKinney 64 76 52 73 51 / 30 60 5 0 0
Dallas 65 79 55 75 55 / 30 60 5 0 0
Terrell 63 74 53 74 53 / 20 60 10 0 0
Corsicana 64 74 55 75 54 / 20 70 10 0 0
Temple 63 79 52 79 55 / 30 60 5 0 0
Mineral Wells 59 83 49 75 53 / 40 20 5 0 0

&&

Forward watches/warnings/advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon
for txz091-092-100>102-115>117-129>131-141.

Wind Advisory until 1 am CDT Friday for txz091>094-100>104-
115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.

&&

Not everywhere
Quoting 52. Xandra:

From the Guardian:

Global warming is increasing rainfall rates

A new study looks at the complex relationship between global warming and increased precipitation

[...]

It’s a well-known scientific principle that warmer air holds more water vapor. In fact, the amount of moisture that can be held in air grows very rapidly as temperatures increase. So, it’s expected that in general, air will get moister as the Earth warms – provided there is a moisture source. This may cause more intense rainfalls and snow events, which lead to increased risk of flooding.

But warmer air can also more quickly evaporate water from surfaces. This means that areas where it’s not precipitating dry out more quickly. In fact, it’s likely that some regions will experience both more drought and more flooding in the future (just not at the same time!). [...]

Okay so what have we observed? It turns out our expectations were correct. Observations reveal more intense rainfalls and flooding in some areas. But in other regions there’s more evaporation and drying with increased drought. Some areas experience both.

Some questions remain. When temperatures get too high, there’s no continued increase in intense rain events. In fact, heavy precipitation events decrease at the highest temperatures. There are some clear reasons for this but for brevity, regardless of where measurements are made on Earth, there appears to be an increase of precipitation with temperature up until a peak and thereafter, more warming coincides with decreased precipitation.

A new clever study by Dr. Guiling Wang from the University of Connecticut and her colleagues has looked into this and they’ve made a surprising discovery. Their work was just published in Nature Climate Change. They report that the peak temperature (the temperature where maximum precipitation occurs) is not fixed in space or time. It is increasing in a warming world.

The idea is shown in the sketch below. Details vary with location but, as the world warms, there is a shift from one curve to the next, from left to right. The result is a shift such that more intense precipitation occurs at higher temperatures in future, while the drop-off moves to even higher temperatures.


An idealized example of increasing precipitation curves as the world warms for the Midwest. Illustration: John Abraham

The authors also looked at how we characterize the temperature/precipitation relationship. Traditionally, we have related precipitation events to the local average temperature. However, it’s clear that there’s a strong relationship between the peak temperature and the precipitation rates. In fact, relations reveal that precipitation rates are increasing between 5 and 10% for every degree C increase. The expected rate of increase, just based on thermodynamics is 7%.

The authors find that in some parts of the globe, the relationship is even stronger. For instance, in the tropics, there’s more than a 10% increase in precipitation for a degree Celsius increase in temperature. This is not unexpected because precipitation releases latent heat, which can in turn invigorate storms.

From a practical standpoint, this helps us plan for climate change (it is already occurring) including planning resiliency. In the United States, there has been a marked increase in the most intense rainfall events across the country. This has resulted in more severe flooding throughout the country.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
00z GFS stronger
whatever the Atlantic disturbance will be its gonna lay down some rain

total qpf hr 144gfs



Quoting 105. 19N81W:


Not everywhere

nope and what does come goes right up between your islands

Quoting 105. 19N81W:


Not everywhere



What would make you think it should?
From Reuters:

California board adopts strictest U.S. methane rules

California's decision came as U.S. Senate prepared to vote on repealing rule limiting methane venting and leaking on federal lands

March 23 (Reuters) - California's air quality board voted unanimously on Thursday to approve methane regulations touted as the strictest adopted yet in the United States for controlling emissions of the second-most prevalent greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

The rules, approved by the California Air Resources Board, tighten efficiency requirements for production and transportation of natural gas and for some oil-handling equipment, including installation of emissions-recapture technology.

They also mandate more stringent monitoring and reporting of potential gas leaks as a means of pinpointing and repairing them quickly.

Methane, the main component of commercially distributed natural gas, is also a byproduct of oil extraction. Pound for pound, it traps significantly more heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, the most prevalent greenhouse gas, though its effects are shorter-lived.

[...]

The action comes more than a year after a massive methane leak at the Aliso Canyon gas storage field, owned by the Southern California Gas Co, forced thousands of residents from their homes in the nearby Porter Ranch community of Los Angeles.

The well rupture that caused the leak, the largest known accidental methane release in U.S. history, took nearly four months to plug and was estimated to have had a larger climate impact than the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Environmental Defense Fund director Tim O'Connor, whose group helped devise the state regulations, said California's action was all the more important in light of the Trump administration's vow to curb EPA regulations.

"If the federal government won't protect the people and the environment from oil and gas pollution, it has to be up to the states," he said.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 82. RobertWC:



Good news for the Great Barrier Reef.

More like insult to injury if that cyclone gets calibre.
Latest models still showing "development"
GFS

ECMWF
I watched Katharine Hayhoe last night being interviewed by Evan Smith. She had a great retort for the old , "It snowed so CC isn't real", argument .

" The guy at the back of Titanic was sure it wasn't sinking , because his end was going up. "
Roberts Co. fire burns 60,000 acres

In less than 15 hours.

The NHC is taking notice...wonder if we could get a STWO today or tomorrow...
Eric Blake‏ @EricBlake12

Looks like a little something to watch in the SW Atlantic next week- and I'm the lucky operational guy 😳🙄 no delusions of grandeur please!
From the Guardian:

Breitbart's James Delingpole says reef bleaching is 'fake news', hits peak denial

Coral bleaching 'has changed the Great Barrier Reef forever' – video

It takes a very special person to label the photographed, documented, filmed and studied phenomenon of mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef “fake news”.

You need lashings of chutzpah, blinkers the size of Donald Trump’s hairspray bill and more hubris than you can shake a branch of dead coral at.

It also helps if you can hide inside the bubble of the hyper-partisan Breitbart media outlet, whose former boss is the US president’s chief strategist.

So our special person is the British journalist James Delingpole who, when he’s not denying the impacts of coral bleaching, is denying the science of human-caused climate change, which he says is “the biggest scam in the history of the world”.

Delingpole was offended this week by an editorial in the Washington Post that read: “Humans are killing the Great Barrier Reef, one of the world’s greatest natural wonders, and there’s nothing Australians on their own can do about it. We are all responsible.”

Delingpole wrote:

Like the thriving polar bear, like the recovering ice caps, like the doing-just-fine Pacific islands, the Great Barrier Reef has become a totem for the liberal-left not because it’s in any kind of danger but because it’s big and famous and photogenic and lots and lots of people would be really sad if it disappeared. But it’s not going to disappear. That’s just a #fakenews lie designed to promote the climate alarmist agenda.

[...]

“Have they been out there personally – as I have – to check. No of course not,” says Delingpole.

Yes. James Delingpole has been out there “personally” to check, but all those other people haven’t. He doesn’t say when he went but he has written about one trip before. It was back in late April 2012. Everything was fine, he said, based on that one visit. I can’t find any times when he has mentioned another trip since.

[...]

Why should there not be equivalence between Delingpole’s single trip to the reef (apparently taken 10 years after a previous severe case of bleaching and four years before the one that followed) at one spot on a reef system that spans the size of Italy [takes breath] and the observations of scientists from multiple institutions diving at 150 different locations to verify observations taken by even more scientists in low-flying aircraft traversing the entire length of the reef?

I mean, come on? Why can those two things – Delingpole making a boat trip with mates and a coordinated and exhaustive scientific monitoring and data-gathering exercise – not be the same?

So it seems we are now at a stage where absolutely nothing is real unless you have seen it for yourself, so you can dismiss all of the photographs and video footage of bleached and dead coral, the testimony of countless marine biologists (who, we apparently also have to point out, have been to the reef ) and the observations made by the government agency that manages the reef.

Senator Pauline Hanson and her One Nation climate science-denying colleagues tried to pull a similar stunt last year by taking a dive on a part of the reef that had escaped bleaching and then claiming this as proof that everything was OK everywhere else.

This is like trying to disprove to a doctor that you have two broken legs by showing him an MRI scan of your head (which may or not reveal the presence of a brain), and then being annoyed when he doesn’t accept your evidence.

It’s as though we’ve reached peak denial.

[...]

This month a study published in Nature, and co-authored by 46 scientists, found these three episodes had impacted reefs “across almost the entire Great Barrier Reef marine park”. Only southern offshore reefs had escaped.

[...]

Essentially, the study found the only measure that would give corals on the reef a fighting chance was to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The lead author of the study, Prof Terry Hughes of James Cook University (who is this week carrying out aerial surveys of the current bleaching episode), told my Positive Feedback podcast:

We can’t climate-proof reefs. Sure, there’s stuff we need to do be doing locally around water quality and fisheries management, but doing these two things alone is not going to protect the reefs in the long term. The elephant in the room here is climate change.

[...]

Dr Mark Eakin, head of Coral Reef Watch at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the cause of the modern-day mass bleaching episodes on reefs across the world was the rise in ocean temperatures.

This, says Eakin, is “being driven largely by humans and our burning of fossil fuels”.

Government ministers at federal and state levels, of both political stripes, claim they want to protect the reef.

They are running this protection racket, somehow, by continuing to support plans for a coalmine that will be the biggest in the country’s history.

That’s some more hubris right there.

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 89. BaltimoreBrian:

Actually, you have to expect gardens to look pretty sad after hard March freezes and wet weather.


Yep. What would one like to see anyhoo? OMG there is a plant in front of my yard, call the president.
From Reuters:

U.S. State Dept to approve Keystone pipeline permit Friday -sources



WASHINGTON, March 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. State Department plans to approve on Friday the permit needed to proceed with construction of the Canada-to-United States Keystone XL oil pipeline, a project blocked by former President Barack Obama, according to two government sources familiar with the process.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer said the administration would provide an update on Keystone on Friday but did not offer any details.

Two government sources, who declined to be identified, said on Thursday that the pipeline approval would be announced by the White House.

[...]

The multi-billion dollar Keystone pipeline would bring more than 800,000 barrels-per-day of heavy crude from Canada's oil sands to U.S. refineries and ports along the Gulf of Mexico, via an existing pipeline network in Nebraska.

Obama had rejected the pipeline saying it would do nothing to reduce fuel prices for U.S. motorists and would contribute emissions linked to global warming.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Good Morning Folks; here is the Conus forecast for today and the current look; that Jet is starting to creep towards tornado alley and the low just North of the Texas panhandle looks impressive:



As noted in the current Blog post, the dynamics of a strong low, with the visible dry line potential and the additional intersection of the jet, is 3/4 of the recipe for tornadic activity, but there remains an absence of strong warm flow from the Gulf (which remains bone dry today); probably why SPC still has the area in a slight risk.  Not much to work with at the moment in terms being able to generate a strong line of t-storms from baroclinic convection but we have to see whether day time heating later this afternoon will produce the strong boomers and a potential squall line. 



/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE11.GIF


391

WTNT80 EGRR 240418



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.03.2017



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 22.7N 69.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.03.2017 22.7N 69.5W WEAK

00UTC 27.03.2017 23.3N 69.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.03.2017 24.7N 69.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 28.03.2017 27.1N 66.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.03.2017 28.8N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.03.2017 29.7N 61.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 29.03.2017 29.9N 58.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.03.2017 31.0N 55.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


And here is the cyclone (91P) which looks impressive and the other storm (Caleb) as well; action kicking up again in that area around Australia (on either side) between the South Pacific and Indian Ocean:


Combined image of all basins
On listening to the Arctic

The Arctic has something to tell us ... And I'm getting perhaps a bit spiritual here, but the Inuit especially believe that there are spirits of their ancestors, there are spirits that live in the sea, that walk the land, and if you disrespect them, you will suffer greatly for it. ...

'Ghosts' In The Arctic: How The Long-Lost Franklin Expedition Was Found

Quoting 116. Xandra:

James Delingpole

That is one special dirty piece of work, truly one of my favourites.
I need to meet this guy after the Apocalypse, oh, I shall feast on his innards.
Quoting 125. cRRKampen:


That is one special dirty piece of work, truly one of my favourites.
I need to meet this guy after the Apocalypse, oh, I shall feast on his innards.

James Delingpole: The True Face of Denialism
Quoting 125. cRRKampen:


That is one special dirty piece of work, truly one of my favourites.
I need to meet this guy after the Apocalypse, oh, I shall feast on his innards.


I'd settle for his hacked e-mails.
The next Pacific storm (91 P) looks to be am impressive storm based on the advisory and a threat to Australia at the moment:

WTPS22 PGTW 240130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 151.7E TO 17.9S 150.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 151.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232049Z MHS NOAA-18 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS SHOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS LIKELY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. BASED ON IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250130Z.
And here is the big picture:



Quoting 126. Xandra:


James Delingpole: The True Face of Denialism

Seen and battled it all.
One of his last at the Telegraph (source blog pulled) - "I note that warmists are often banging on about the fact that sceptics like Christopher Booker and myself "only" have arts degrees. But actually that's our strength, not our weakness. Our intellectual training qualifies us better than any scientist – social or natural sciences – for us to understand that this is, au fond, not a scientific debate but a cultural and rhetorical one."

Or, 'I'm completely ignorant so I know better'.

It is just retorics, of course he knows better. That's in part why he was, and is so succesful in raising the Keeling Curve.
All 2016 E-Pacific post storm analysis are done, the only one left is MATTHEW.
Angola floods kill 11, cause widespread destruction
Deadly floods after heavy rainfall in the north of the country have left thousands homeless.

In common with many other parts of southern Africa, Angola has been in the grip of a drought which has persisted for several years. This partly due to climate change, but population growth and increased agricultural demand for water have also played their part.

The current floods have left much of the farmland in Luanda province under water and communications have been cut off.


Link
Spike / March 24, 2017
Another “worse than we thought” article. Reefs damaged severely because local changes magnified the impact of global warming.Most future projections for coral reefs in a 2°C global warming scenario only take into account background ocean warming, rather than local weather effects on reefs, says DeCarlo. “They may be overly optimistic.”

Link
Irrespective of any severe weather issue for the Gulf region later, most of the in-climate weather from the low is currently affecting parts to the North but no wind or severe weather reports across the board yet over the past three hours:

last3hours Reports Graphic




This storm might actually be flirting with tropical cyclone status
BREAKING: TransCanada says Keystone XL pipeline has been approved by Trump.

From Bloomberg:

TransCanada Granted U.S. Permit for Keystone XL Pipeline

After more than 8 years of political haggling over both its future and its benefits, the Keystone XL oil pipeline running from Canada to America's heartland has been approved by President Donald Trump.

The move overturns a 2015 decision by former President Barack Obama. During his campaign, Trump vowed to support energy companies and advocate for new infrastructure. After taking office, one of his first acts was to invite TransCanada Corp., the pipeline's builder, to reapply for approval. The $8 billion project will span 1,179 miles (1,897 kilometers), crossing Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska, where it will connect with the existing Keystone system, which runs to the Gulf Coast.

"This is a significant milestone for the Keystone XL project," said TransCanada Chief Executive Officer Russ Girling in a statement announcing the approval. "We greatly appreciate President Trump's Administration for reviewing and approving this important initiative and we look forward to working with them."

Trump is scheduled to speak about his decision at 10:15 a.m. in Washington, according to White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer.

Click here to read more.

See also: Study: Koch Brothers Could Make $100 Billion if Keystone XL Pipeline Approved

Quoting 135. all4hurricanes:


This storm might actually be flirting with tropical cyclone status



Arlene: "Hey mother nature, baby, make my a real system."

According to the various models:

GFS: Strong TS or Subtropical Storm, becomes hurricane in middle of Atlantic.
CMC: Strong Subtropical Storm that transitions into a Category Two hurricane near Bermuda.
ECMWF: Weak TS that spins across the Atlantic.

If it goes the way of the CMC, records shall be broken.

Sheer is still crazy high in the Western Caribbean-Bahamas region and marginal SSTs; a low could still form next week but probably looking at a sheared sub-tropical storm if one does form IMHO:




my 32nd B day today
Quoting 140. thetwilightzone:

my 32nd B day today


Happy Birthday Taz
Quoting 140. thetwilightzone:

my 32nd B day today


Happy B-Day Taz; I watch the Twilight Zone every night on ME TV; good episode last night......................
Quoting 140. thetwilightzone:

my 32nd B day today


Happy Birthday, Taz!
Soon to be named TC Debbie. She's a big girl.


Going to be moody too


May I add, my brother lives in Townsville..... Debbie does Townsville. Please no....
Well, I am back. If you must know what I have been doing, here is the long version:
I have been quite busy with school, Playing the Borderlands Franchise (I'm on PC, if you really must inquire) (Today's Theme Song), Playing Dead Rising 2 (I won't go into details, it's NSFW), and tracking weather.

The final two Winter Storms of the season (both Minor and prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for both Missouri and Kentucky) were Drogan (Satuday March 11th 2017 from 7am to 11am) and Eidolon (Monday March 13th 2017 from 5am to 9am). Both were short lived and caused no major impacts.

The following are the names I used this season:

Ahriman (December 17th, 2016 [Minor Winter Storm])
Badrukk (January 5th, 2017 [Minor Winter Storm])
Calgar (January 13th, 2017 [Moderate Winter Storm])
Drogan (March 11th, 2017 [Minor Winter Storm])
Eidolon (March 13th, 2017 [Minor Winter Storm])

The only name(s) that have a shot at being retired are Badrukk and Calgar. Badrukk MAY be retired because of the ICE storm in the Southern USA. Calgar MAY be retired because of the ICE storm in Illinois that caused falling tree branches and power outages on the Eastern Side (stronger side) of Carbondale.

So, what have I missed?

Quoting 140. thetwilightzone:

my 32nd B day today


Happy Birthday, Taz! Hope it's awesome!
Very weak squall line about to go through Dallas but trouble on the horizon; SPC just went up to an enhanced risk in one section and wind reports starting to come in:


today Reports Graphic


Not a lot but a thin band of gulf flow is starting to flow to the North into Miss to "greet" the incoming front later today at it reaches Louisiana:


/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE14.GIF

Low level moisture has been flying across the skies all morning--I'm near the coastline Corpus Christi TX. If this continues throughout the day, there will be plenty of fuel.
Quoting 149. marynell:

Low level moisture has been flying across the skies all morning--I'm near the coastline Corpus Christi TX. If this continues throughout the day, there will be plenty of fuel.


Yup; the low is also picking up lots of moisture now from the Western Gulf area by Texas; that is feeding the potential convection more that the flow going into MS:



Quoting 140. thetwilightzone:

my 32nd B day today
Happy birthday Taz. You have a blessed and wonderful day.
Very strong low level inflow inbound from the already tepid GOM.

Issued a Half hour ago here.

Upper Jefferson Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsWind AdvisoryIssued: 10:41 AM CDT Mar. 24, 2017 – National Weather Service

... Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening...

* timing... through 7 PM

* winds... 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph

* impacts... difficult driving conditions for high profile
vehicles especially on east-west roadways and on bridges and
overpasses. Loose lawn objects along with trash cans will be
blown around.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 26 to 39 mph are expected.
Winds this strong can make driving difficult... especially for
high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.


New Orleans, LA WFO – Visible
Enhanced Overlay Loop

click image for loop




A new commenter at Scribbler , really interesting -


Lars Pilø / March 24, 2017

The melting of glaciers and mountain ice, bad as it is, has also led to the development of a new archaeological discipline – glacial archaeology, which is my work field. The melting ice releases artifacts which have been stored in a deep freezer, sometimes for thousands of years. The combination of exciting archaeological finds and climate change has created a lot of interest.
However, almost every time we are in the media, the finds gets misused to propagate climate science denial. For this reason I have had to read up on climate science (including following this blog for quite a while, without posting), both for putting the finds into a proper context, and to be able to explain, why the finds cannot be used to disprove global warming:


Glacial Archaeology and Climate Science Denial

Climate science denial is often found in the comment section to news on archaeological finds from the ice. Paraphrasing one typical argument: “This proves that there was no ice here, when the artefact was lost. So the Earth must have been warmer in the past. How is this possible when the current warming is attributed to humans? The Vikings didn’t have SUVs?” This argument is fallacious for two main reasons: Firstly, most artefacts were originally lost in the snow, not on the ground, where they are found now. Secondly, the fact that climate change occurs naturally does not preclude that humans can have an influence on climate as well. This is just bad reasoning (non-sequitur).

At the same time, the connection between the ice artefacts and global warming is often made in a too simplistic way. Paraphrasing again: “Global warming is leading to the melt out of artefacts, that have never been out of the ice, since they were lost in the snow millennia ago.” If this was indeed the case we should be finding the artefacts melting out of the surface of the ice, but this is rarely the case. Most artefacts are found on the ground, not inside the ice. It is unlikely that they were originally lost on the ground, as for instance arrows were valuable and would have been searched for and retrieved, if at all possible. So, it appears that the artefacts have melted out previously.

So what can the artefacts from the ice tell us about climate?


Link



Quoting 147. weathermanwannabe:

Very weak squall line about to go through Dallas but trouble on the horizon; SPC just went up to an enhanced risk in one section and wind reports starting to come in:


today Reports Graphic





A large 2% + 5% tornado threat as well:



Stay safe everyone!
Quoting 136. Xandra:

BREAKING: TransCanada says Keystone XL pipeline has been approved by Trump.

From Bloomberg:

TransCanada Granted U.S. Permit for Keystone XL Pipeline

After more than 8 years of political haggling over both its future and its benefits, the Keystone XL oil pipeline running from Canada to America's heartland has been approved by President Donald Trump.

The move overturns a 2015 decision by former President Barack Obama. During his campaign, Trump vowed to support energy companies and advocate for new infrastructure. After taking office, one of his first acts was to invite TransCanada Corp., the pipeline's builder, to reapply for approval. The $8 billion project will span 1,179 miles (1,897 kilometers), crossing Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska, where it will connect with the existing Keystone system, which runs to the Gulf Coast.

"This is a significant milestone for the Keystone XL project," said TransCanada Chief Executive Officer Russ Girling in a statement announcing the approval. "We greatly appreciate President Trump's Administration for reviewing and approving this important initiative and we look forward to working with them."

Trump is scheduled to speak about his decision at 10:15 a.m. in Washington, according to White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer.

Click here to read more.

See also: Study: Koch Brothers Could Make $100 Billion if Keystone XL Pipeline Approved




I thought Trump "approved" the Pipeline a long time ago???? Maybe he "approved" it again? Link

Trump Administration Gives Final Approval for Dakota Access Pipeline
Department of Army to issue outstanding easement needed
By AMY HARDER and CHRISTOPHER M. MATTHEWS
Updated Feb. 7, 2017 6:00 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has given a final green light to the controversial Dakota Access Pipeline, according to a court filing issued Tuesday, fulfilling a campaign pledge to boost energy projects but infuriating activists fighting the project.
Quoting 156. RobertWC:

A new commenter at Scribbler , really interesting -


Lars Pilø / March 24, 2017

The melting of glaciers and mountain ice, bad as it is, has also led to the development of a new archaeological discipline – glacial archaeology, which is my work field. The melting ice releases artifacts which have been stored in a deep freezer, sometimes for thousands of years. The combination of exciting archaeological finds and climate change has created a lot of interest.
However, almost every time we are in the media, the finds gets misused to propagate climate science denial. For this reason I have had to read up on climate science (including following this blog for quite a while, without posting), both for putting the finds into a proper context, and to be able to explain, why the finds cannot be used to disprove global warming:


Glacial Archaeology and Climate Science Denial

Climate science denial is often found in the comment section to news on archaeological finds from the ice. Paraphrasing one typical argument: “This proves that there was no ice here, when the artefact was lost. So the Earth must have been warmer in the past. How is this possible when the current warming is attributed to humans? The Vikings didn’t have SUVs?” This argument is fallacious for two main reasons: Firstly, most artefacts were originally lost in the snow, not on the ground, where they are found now. Secondly, the fact that climate change occurs naturally does not preclude that humans can have an influence on climate as well. This is just bad reasoning (non-sequitur).

At the same time, the connection between the ice artefacts and global warming is often made in a too simplistic way. Paraphrasing again: “Global warming is leading to the melt out of artefacts, that have never been out of the ice, since they were lost in the snow millennia ago.” If this was indeed the case we should be finding the artefacts melting out of the surface of the ice, but this is rarely the case. Most artefacts are found on the ground, not inside the ice. It is unlikely that they were originally lost on the ground, as for instance arrows were valuable and would have been searched for and retrieved, if at all possible. So, it appears that the artefacts have melted out previously.

So what can the artefacts from the ice tell us about climate?


Link







I hope they find a old werking stil,..that way I can chuckle about my ancestors sitting under the Milky Way plowed under by daybreak,..discussing weather.

I also often wonder if early Man ever imagined His world torn asunder from pole to pole by Mans greed. I doubt it as all His needs were met many times over by nature. Today, we buy free water that is encased in a oil based container.

See the madness here?
Mar 24, 2017
Cyclic drought threatens to destabilise Amazon


Researchers have identified a climate feedback mechanism that could have catastrophic consequences for one of the world’s great rainforests.

They report that a dangerous mix of human-induced devastation and cyclic drought in the Amazon could launch a vicious circle of forest dieback. The drought that killed the trees could intensify because of the intricate relationship between the rainforest and the rainfall, in which trees play a role in maintaining a pattern of precipitation by pumping fallen water back into the atmosphere.

“We already know that, on the one hand, reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, and, on the other hand, forest loss can intensify regional droughts. So more droughts can lead to less forest, leading to more droughts, and so on,” says Delphine Clara Zemp, of Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who led the international team of scientists behind the finding.


Link
158. Sfloridacat5

Two different pipelines there Copernicus.
162. JRRP
See the madness here?

Daily .
thanks all looks like my last B day on WU be for we all move too the new site
Quoting 163. RobertWC:

See the madness here?

Daily .


I have no regrets to any of my AGW posts and comments here the last decade plus.

The archive will show that many here were trying for a long time to tell the truth.

Our future Globally is going to be interesting to say the least.

'Crazy on a ship of fool's"

Happy Birthday Taz.

Quoting 140. thetwilightzone:

my 32nd B day today


a cake for ya

happy B day taz
I may not agree politically with people on here especially with funding (I don't like spending others money and vice versa or the feeling of being owned when given free stuff) but I draw the line at extreme decisions. Use your new found energy to shutdown this garbage.

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These are updated every half hour; lots more moist air flowing into the Northern Gulf at the surface level now:

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/VZNHE16.GIF/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/WVNHE16.GIF

In a watershed moment, more than half of the population now oppose drilling in the American wilderness — although this likely has more to do with cheap gas prices than a sudden embrace of environmental sensitivity.

According to poll data released by Gallup on Friday, the same day Donald Trump approved construction of the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline, 53 percent of Americans oppose opening federal lands for oil exploration, compared with just 34 percent who were against the idea five years ago.


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The good news so far is that the main low, still located around the Texas Panhandle, is actually moving pretty slowly to the East; this is consistent with a potential multi-day passage to the East Coast. With max daytime heating along the Northern Gulf coast for about another 3 hours, it we can get through that period without too much severe weather, instability will start to go down as the sun starts going down for the evening before the actual frontal line reaches LA: amazingly, it is still moving very slowly past Dallas at the moment.


Quoting 172. Hurricane4Lex:

I may not agree politically with people on here especially with funding (I don't like spending others money and vice versa or the feeling of being owned when given free stuff) but I draw the line at extreme decisions. Use your new found energy to shutdown this garbage.

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If you get cancer, I guarantee you will be spending someone else's money. If your house gets washed away by a flood, I guarantee you will be spending someone else's money. That's how any insurance plan or federal emergency disaster relief works. As it stands right now, we wind up paying 100% overhead if it goes through a health insurance company vs medicaid and we pay higher prices to boot. So think of it like this, you are saving other people money if its a federal program.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Earth's worst-ever mass extinction of life holds 'apocalyptic' warning about climate change, say scientists

Runaway global warming saw the planet's average temperature hit about double what it is today about 250 million years ago

Researchers studying the largest-ever mass extinction in Earth’s history claim to have found evidence that it was caused by runaway global warming – and that the “apocalyptic” events of 250 million years ago could happen again. ....................... Now a team of researchers from Canada, Italy, Germany and the US say they have discovered what happened and that their findings have “an important lesson for humanity” in how we deal with current global warming.

According to a paper published in the journal Palaeoworld, volcanic eruptions pumped large amounts of carbon dioxide into the air, causing average temperatures to rise by eight to 11°C.

This melted vast amounts of methane that had been trapped in the permafrost and sea floor, causing temperatures to soar even further to levels “lethal to most life on land and in the oceans”.


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Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction

Abstract
The cause for the end Permian mass extinction, the greatest challenge life on Earth faced in its geologic history, is still hotly debated by scientists. The most significant marker of this event is the negative δ13C shift and rebound recorded in marine carbonates with a duration ranging from 2000 to 19 000 years depending on localities and sedimentation rates. Leading causes for the event are Siberian trap volcanism and the emission of greenhouse gases with consequent global warming. Measurements of gases vaulted in calcite of end Permian brachiopods and whole rock document significant differences in normal atmospheric equilibrium concentration in gases between modern and end Permian seawaters. The gas composition of the end Permian brachiopod-inclusions reflects dramatically higher seawater carbon dioxide and methane contents leading up to the biotic event. Initial global warming of 8–11 °C sourced by isotopically light carbon dioxide from volcanic emissions triggered the release of isotopically lighter methane from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrates. Consequently, the huge quantities of methane emitted into the atmosphere and the oceans accelerated global warming and marked the negative δ13C spike observed in marine carbonates, documenting the onset of the mass extinction period. The rapidity of the methane hydrate emission lasting from several years to thousands of years was tempered by the equally rapid oxidation of the atmospheric and oceanic methane that gradually reduced its warming potential but not before global warming had reached levels lethal to most life on land and in the oceans. Based on measurements of gases trapped in biogenic and abiogenic calcite, the release of methane (of ∼3–14% of total C stored) from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrate is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming (GMAT > 34 °C) and oceanic negative-carbon isotope excursion observed at the end Permian. Global warming triggered by the massive release of carbon dioxide may be catastrophic, but the release of methane from hydrate may be apocalyptic. The end Permian holds an important lesson for humanity regarding the issue it faces today with greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and climate change.


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