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Big Cities Largely Spared by Northeast Storm; Huge Totals Piling Up Inland

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:30 PM GMT on March 14, 2017

Even though Tuesday’s much-anticipated storm (dubbed Stella by The Weather Channel) was producing more of an icy mess than a winter wonderland along the corridor from Washington, D.C., to New York, it wouldn’t be entirely fair to call it a bust. Power outages were piling up quickly at midday Tuesday throughout the region as fierce winds battered the area, gusting well above 40 mph along the coast from New Jersey to Massachusetts. Precipitation has been very intense, just as expected, and you don’t have to go far inland from the Interstate 95 corridor to encounter extreme snowfall.

Mount Pocono, PA, had received 23.0” of snow as of 11 am EDT Tuesday, and Endwell, NY, just west of Binghamton, had racked up 18.3” as of 10 am. Highland Lakes, NJ—only about 30 miles northwest of Manhattan—reported 14.5” as of 10:25 am, with an astounding 4.5” of snow reportedly falling in just one hour.


Figure 1. The Weather Channel's Jen Carfagno reports on Winter Storm Stella from the Tidal Basin in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, March 14, 2017. (Kevin Wolf/AP Images for The Weather Channel)

Conditions were already improving in the Washington area at noon Tuesday, according to Capital Weather Gang. Snow totals in the District have been fairly underwhelming, around 2” - 3”, although the White House CoCoRaHS station reported a healthy 2.34” of liquid equivalent.

Near I-95 in Pennsylvania, the snow turned to freezing rain and sleet early Tuesday morning. The National Weather Service office in Philadelphia relayed several reports of 1/4” ice accumulations (“…what could have been snow,” the office pointed out). Snowfall in the Philadelphia metro area was generally in the 3” - 4” range as of late Tuesday AM.

While more than a foot had fallen by midday across New York City’s northern suburbs, Central Park had received only 4” as of 8:00 am EDT, with lighter snowfall reported after that point. Further upstate, far eastern New York and western New England were on track to get very heavy snow toward Tuesday afternoon and evening. As of 10:40 am EDT, the most likely totals predicted by the NWS/Albany office include 18” - 24” in the Albany area and 24” - 30” in far southern Vermont.


Figure 2 People struggle to walk in heavy windblown snow on Tuesday, March 14, 2017, in Boston. Image credit: AP Photo/Michael Dwyer.

After a quick burst of snow Tuesday morning, southeast New England will be experiencing mostly rain as a wedge of warmer air surges into the region. Boston will be on the knife edge of the snow/rain transition zone, which makes the ultimate snow totals there very hard to call. “Snow accumulations are quite difficult [to predict] across eastern New England because of the extreme snowfall rates likely at the time of the changeover,” explained the Boston-area NWS office. “Being off by an hour or two on the changeover will have huge implications.”

Most of Maine should stay on the snowy side of the developing coastal front, although a changeover could occur along the mid-Maine coast as the intense surface low moves nearby. Portland, ME, may end up in the running with Albany, NY, for the heaviest accumulations in a sizable Northeastern city, with as much as 18” possible.


Figure 3. Observed water levels above MLLW (mean low low water) at Atlantic City, New Jersey, on March 13-14, 2017. The MLLW level (red trace) peaked at 7.8 feet above MLLW at 9:18 am EDT Tuesday morning, March 14. This corresponded to a peak storm tide (the height of water above the high-tide mark, or the difference between the red and blue traces) of 3.40 feet. Image credit: NOAA TIdes and Currents.

A modest coastal flooding threat by nor’easter standards
The exceptionally strong winds of Stella drove a storm surge of 1 - 3.5 feet on Tuesday morning along the coasts of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. The most notable storm surge occurred at Atlantic City, New Jersey, where the storm tide (the height of the water above the high tide mark) reached 3.40 feet—placing it #9 in the top ten list of highest water levels on record for the city. (The previous tenth-highest water level in Atlantic City's recorded history was 3.24’, set during last year’s nor’easter on January 23, 2016; the highest was 4.38’ during the December 11, 1992 nor’easter.) Tuesday morning’s storm surge caused moderate flooding, shutting down Route 322 and smaller streets in West Atlantic City, and was just 0.2’ short of the major flooding threshold, according to heraldcourier.com.

As of this writing, the peak storm surge and storm tides had yet to occur along the coasts of Connecticut, eastern New York, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire and Massachusetts; mostly minor coastal flooding is expected, with a few pockets of moderate flooding, due to the relatively rapid motion of the storm across the area. Slow-moving nor’easters are a much bigger coastal flooding threat, since the wind has more time to pile large amounts of water up against the coast. The main concern for coastal flooding will come during the early Tuesday afternoon high tide cycle, when the strong winds of the storm will coincide with high waters from a higher-than-usual high tide, due to the full moon that occurred on Sunday. Wave heights on the ocean waters off the coast of Rhode Island are forecast to range from 11 to 16 feet, causing considerable beach erosion.

According to the NOAA Quicklook Tides and Currents page for Stella, the following approximate peak storm surges (height of the water above normal) and storm tides (height of the water above the high tide mark) were observed on Tuesday morning:

Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA: 2.0’ storm surge, 0.2’ storm tide (peak storm surge occurred near low tide, so a relatively low peak storm tide occurred)
Ocean City Inlet, MD: 1.3’ storm surge, 0.8’ storm tide
Lewes, DE: 2.7’ storm surge, 2.1’ storm tide
Cape May, NJ: 2.5’ storm surge, 2.0’ storm tide
Atlantic City, NJ: 3.4’ storm surge, 3.19’ storm tide (Peak surge occurred near the time of high tide)
Sandy Hook, NJ: 3.5’ storm surge, 2.65’ storm tide
The Battery, New York City, NY: 3.0’ storm surge, 2.57’ storm tide


Figure 4. Freeze warnings (dark purple) occupied a huge swath of the east-central U.S., from southern Missouri to South Carolina, as of Tuesday morning, March 14, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

Freeze damage a significant threat this week
A moderately cold air mass for mid-March could have outsized impacts on vegetation in the eastern U.S. this week, given that the cold blast is arriving on the heels of a remarkably warm late winter. Crops and landscapes have been budding, greening, and blossoming several weeks ahead of their usual pace across most of the eastern U.S., so the impact of this week’s expected freeze will be more akin to getting such a cold shot in early April. Temperatures may dip below 25°F as far south as Atlanta on Wednesday morning.

“The greatest risk of the late-season deep freeze in the Southeast will clearly be to the agricultural and farming sector,” said Steve Bowen (Aon Benfield) in an email on Tuesday. “Following such a warm winter, many farms have been reporting earlier-than-normal blooms for some crops (fruit crops in particular). If temperatures fall as much as currently forecast, and stay cold for consecutive days, there could be many millions of dollars of damage from lost crops. The dollar amount will ultimately depend on how cold it actually gets, of course. Even a few degrees in either direction could make a huge difference in financial cost.”

The beloved cherry blossoms of Washington, D.C., were on a record-early pace before this week’s cold and snow. The peak bloom in D.C.’s Tidal Basin is now expected between March 19 and 22, according to the National Park Service—still quite early by historical standards—although the quality of the display we can expect is now in question.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Temperatures predicted by the 12Z Tuesday run of the GFS model for 8:00 am EDT Wednesday, March 15, 2017. Overnight lows could be several degrees lower than these values. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.





Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It has been snowing here since 6am. Light at first and very wet so it did not accumulate much. Pretty windy so visibility was pretty poor on the drive home. I drove slow (40mph) on I-93 and left plenty of distance from the car in front of me. Now that I am home I can't see the house across the street. It is still a very wet snow so I expect snowfall totals to be less but shoveling will be worse.
Curious from posters in DC how much snow they are getting from that wrap-around band.
Thanks for the update; that huge blow to agriculture in the SE is a huge issue. Looks like the low has moved inland on the last frames and not sure how low the pressure is at this point or earlier when the low was still off-shore. Here were conditions at the Coast in Rhode Island at 1:00 pm EST:



NOS
Location: 41.504N 71.326W
Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2017 17:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 17.1 kt gusting to 31.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.36 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 38.3 F
Water Temperature: 36.5 F


Here is a link to the NY Mesonet. It opens to Tully where my bro lives, who happens to be visiting KEYW at this time but leaves tomorrow morning by car. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=TULL
Quoting 2. AGWcreationists:

Curious from posters in DC how much snow they are getting from that wrap-around band.


Dustings here in College Park MD but it isn't done. Expecting one or two impressive showers and a coating.
As always, 95% of the media discussion is hyperventilation over a few inches of snow. Has anybody noticed that our daily highs will top out at anywhere from 15-20-25 degrees below normal for an entire week, and then improve only marginally? Snow we have every year. This type of intense cold in March rivals that of the late 1970s. Indeed, we had a mild Christmas through February, but with significant cold setting in right after Thanksgiving and then a brutal month of March to end things, it's just another one of those endless cold seasons. Green grass, grill, golf and gardening - fading fast into the distant future.
Its snowing here again
Capital Weather Gang‏Verified account @capitalweather 30m
Snow band has developed quickly over metro area. Quick coating to 1" poss, will last longest NE of DC.
Sweet snow band that the DCers have stretches up through my location in PA. Always nice to have more snow, on top of the 16" we have already gotten. ;)
Quoting 6. NJTom:

As always, 95% of the media discussion is hyperventilation over a few inches of snow. Has anybody noticed that our daily highs will top out at anywhere from 15-20-25 degrees below normal for an entire week, and then improve only marginally? Snow we have every year. This type of intense cold in March rivals that of the late 1970s. Indeed, we had a mild Christmas through February, but with significant cold setting in right after Thanksgiving and then a brutal month of March to end things, it's just another one of those endless cold seasons. Green grass, grill, golf and gardening - fading fast into the distant future.


Yeah it'll be a 15-20 below normal week. And I'm worried about what the intense deep freeze over snow cover will do tomorrow to our fruit blossoms, DC cherry blossoms in particular. But a return to normal looks likely next week 3/18 and out.

For a cold March look to 1960, the coldest month of that winter 59-60 season. March 1978 stayed in the 30s the first ten days here in DC (then warmed up a lot).
Two surprises with this storm.

First the warm nose penetrated further north and west than expected. That's common and it was in the back of my mind as one of the ways we could wind up not getting much snow

BUT.

Given that penetration happened, there was extensive glaze icing well down into Southern PG county and East all the way to the Chesapeake Bay (Annapolis). I was expecting a snow/rain or snow ice pellets transition. The freezing rain suggests the cold air was shallower and hung in further EAST than usual in these situations. And there was enough "cold" in that air to freeze 1/4 inch of liquid water.

In short the combination of

Warm nose further west and

Low level cold air shallower and further east

is interesting
I will note, and I know that WU is now part of the TWC family and that it has to be mentioned, that I am personally "over" the whole deal with winter storm name calling that TWC came up with after several years now.  Easy enough to remember the winter storm of March 2017 years from now; I doubt I will ever remember the name Stella (or the names of any of the past winter storms of the last several years)..........Hurricanes are an entirely different matter.
Quoting 290. barbamz:

Big swell in Durban/South Africa two days ago. This was the same day when a cycle tour had to be discontinued in Cape Town due to very strong winds (I've posted videos that day).

Fanned by the gale-force Southeaster there was a terrible shack fire in Hout Bay, Cape Town along the planned cycle race route (also the suburb where I live, but I'm currently busy travelling). 3 dead, 15000 homeless ... pictures
On top of that, a huge bushfire charred the mountain opposite of the bay - after a quite devastating fire season and still intensifying drought.



On a weather related note and just posted on the Science Mag site; nice to see someone in the current Administration understands the concept of climate change:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/trum p-s-defense-chief-cites-climate-change-national-se curity-challenge


Secretary of Defense James Mattis has asserted that climate change is real, and a threat to American interests abroad and the Pentagon's assets everywhere, a position that appears at odds with the views of the president who appointed him and many in the administration in which he serves.

In unpublished written testimony provided to the Senate Armed Services Committee after his confirmation hearing in January, Mattis said it was incumbent on the U.S. military to consider how changes like open-water routes in the thawing Arctic and drought in global trouble spots can pose challenges for troops and defense planners. He also stressed this is a real-time issue, not some distant what-if.

Quoting 6. NJTom:

As always, 95% of the media discussion is hyperventilation over a few inches of snow. Has anybody noticed that our daily highs will top out at anywhere from 15-20-25 degrees below normal for an entire week, and then improve only marginally? Snow we have every year. This type of intense cold in March rivals that of the late 1970s. Indeed, we had a mild Christmas through February, but with significant cold setting in right after Thanksgiving and then a brutal month of March to end things, it's just another one of those endless cold seasons. Green grass, grill, golf and gardening - fading fast into the distant future.


Another one of those endless cold seasons? Check you math then check your history. Failing in both. Each of the first six months in 2016 set a monthly temperature record in recorded history. Warmest half year in history. It's only upward in temps, and it's worldwide. It's year after year after year. 15 of the last 16 years are the warmest years ever recorded. Glaciers retreating everywhere around the world and just because there is a cold snap does not mean one can then choose to not look at a very obvious bigger picture. The evidences could fill a hundred more paragraphs and 97% of climate scientists agree that this is real, this is measurable, and this is and will continue to get worse.
I saw some comments on tornadic activity earlier and I came across this YouTube video of the 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma tornado. This is the best video I have seen on this event. This is not just different videos of the event, it is also an educational video. The video is nearly 30 minutes long, so I will just link to it.

El Reno: Lessons From the Most Dangerous Tornado in Storm Observing History
Quoting 13. weathermanwannabe:

On a weather related note and just posted on the Science Mag site; nice to see someone in the current Administration understands the concept of climate change:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/03/trum p-s-defense-chief-cites-climate-change-national-se curity-challenge


Secretary of Defense James Mattis has asserted that climate change is real, and a threat to American interests abroad and the Pentagon's assets everywhere, a position that appears at odds with the views of the president who appointed him and many in the administration in which he serves.

In unpublished written testimony provided to the Senate Armed Services Committee after his confirmation hearing in January, Mattis said it was incumbent on the U.S. military to consider how changes like open-water routes in the thawing Arctic and drought in global trouble spots can pose challenges for troops and defense planners. He also stressed this is a real-time issue, not some distant what-if.




Trump’s defense chief cites climate change as national security challenge
Thanks for the update Dr. Henson. I always wonder what it would be like if we were ever to get 16'' of snow in the SE. Probably a disaster, but interesting nonetheless...
Anyway, happy Pi day! Spaceweather.com has a neat article for Pi.
So to all the math professors out there, happy 3.1415926535897932384626433832795
02884197169399375105820974944592307
81640628620899862803482534211706 (etc.) day!
Quoting 17. Newswatcher:

Thanks for the update Dr. Henson. I always wonder what it would be like if we were ever to get 16'' of snow in the SE. Probably a disaster, but interesting nonetheless...
Anyway, happy Pi day! Spaceweather.com has a neat article for Pi.
So to all the math professors out there, happy 3.1415926535897932384626433832795
02884197169399375105820974944592307
81640628620899862803482534211706 (etc.) day!




To infinity and beyond!


8 AM in Forsyth Country tomorrow:

25°F
Feels like 15°

Is this spring or winter?
Winds are really picking up just off-shore of the coast in Maine and still blowing hard offshore of the entrance to Boston Harbor:
Boston Harbor:
NDBC
Location: 42.346N 70.651W
Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2017 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 35.0 kt gusting to 44.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 14.4 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Average Wave Period: 6.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (105°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.29 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 36.7 F
Water Temperature: 40.6 F

Maine:
NDBC
Location: 43.784N 68.855W
Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2017 19:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 44.1 kt gusting to 52.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.70 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 32.0 F
Dew Point: 32.0 F


Quoting 17. Newswatcher:

Thanks for the update Dr. Henson. I always wonder what it would be like if we were ever to get 16'' of snow in the SE. Probably a disaster, but interesting nonetheless...
Anyway, happy Pi day! Spaceweather.com has a neat article for Pi.
So to all the math professors out there, happy 3.1415926535897932384626433832795
02884197169399375105820974944592307
81640628620899862803482534211706 (etc.) day!



THe Southeast gets huge snowstorms. February 1973 comes to mind.
Quoting 19. Famoguy1234:

8 AM in Forsyth Country tomorrow:

25°F
Feels like 15°

Is this spring or winter?


Early Spring. Teens possible here in DC tomorrow AM over snow cover though I've been persistantly cold biased in my forecasts so far this past four days.
well you managed to pack the supermarkets over the weekend in anticipation of the storm of the century here in the new york area. i'll just choke it up to fake news
Stu Ostro‏:
@StuOstro

Aaand... we have our first 30" report #nywx #Stella

Quoting 11. weathermanwannabe:

I will note, and I know that WU is now part of the TWC family and that it has to be mentioned, that I am personally "over" the whole deal with winter storm name calling that TWC came up with after several years now.  Easy enough to remember the winter storm of March 2017 years from now; I doubt I will ever remember the name Stella (or the names of any of the past winter storms of the last several years)..........Hurricanes are an entirely different matter.
I honestly don't remember any of the names that were given to the big snowstorms that happened over the last several years here in Washington D.C.I remember the nicknames that us locals called the storms though but not TWC's storm names.A hurricane is a compact system compared to these nor'easter storms.
Quoting 10. georgevandenberghe:

Two surprises with this storm.

First the warm nose penetrated further north and west than expected. That's common and it was in the back of my mind as one of the ways we could wind up not getting much snow

BUT.

Given that penetration happened, there was extensive glaze icing well down into Southern PG county and East all the way to the Chesapeake Bay (Annapolis). I was expecting a snow/rain or snow ice pellets transition. The freezing rain suggests the cold air was shallower and hung in further EAST than usual in these situations. And there was enough "cold" in that air to freeze 1/4 inch of liquid water.

In short the combination of

Warm nose further west and

Low level cold air shallower and further east

is interesting


The HRRR had been predicting ice glazing for a while, and it seems like nobody really picked up on that. However, it did put the rain/snow line too far south (as did most models) so not a total win for the model. I'm a little bummed that we only got about 5 inches of snow + a glazing of ice (I was kinda hoping we'd get 12"+ and that classes would be cancelled tomorrow) but oh well!
Quoting 23. jocapo:

well you managed to pack the supermarkets over the weekend in anticipation of the storm of the century here in the new york area. i'll just choke it up to fake news


No meteorologist was calling this the storm of the century. There was a lot of uncertainty with this storm from the get-go. Maybe you should stop watching whatever news channel you're watching that was calling it that, lol.


11S was named "Fernando" southeast of Madagascar.
Quoting 28. HadesGodWyvern:



11S was named "Fernando" southeast of Madagascar.


Oh, welcome to the world Fernando!
Quoting 21. georgevandenberghe:



THe Southeast gets huge snowstorms. February 1973 comes to mind.


The Superstorm of March 1993 dropped 13" in Birmingham, Alabama and 23" in Chattanooga, TN.

Link
little swirl in the clouds about to move over barbados and other islands. definitely some twisting maybe a shower or two.
Quoting 23. jocapo:

well you managed to pack the supermarkets over the weekend in anticipation of the storm of the century here in the new york area. i'll just choke it up to fake news


In modern newspeak, a "century" is about two years defining the return period of halfway decent snow or other weather parameters.
Time-lapse video playfully captures Stella's snowfall | 1:04

If you want to know how much snow Winter Storm Stella has dumped on New York, you just need to look at the toys on Ron Murphy's back porch.

Quoting 28. HadesGodWyvern:

11S was named "Fernando" southeast of Madagascar.

... and drifting OTS, but there's more to come for the Mascarenes:


Checking in from the Merrimack valley on the border of MA/NH. Been a long time since I posted but figured I should considering I'm in a good spot for this storm. I've seen storms drop way more snow in this area but this storm has been extremely impressive. I have a foot on the ground most of what fell in only about 4 hours. The real surprise has been the wind. Lawrence airport a few miles away reported a 64mph gust and that simply never happens here. Very impressive combined with the 2-4 inch an hour snow rates. Also local news has been talking non stop about Worcester meeting blizzard criteria but nothing about the Merrimack valley. These obs definitely qualify. Link
From Grist:

RICH PLEAD POVERTY



Wealthy countries are backing away from their climate promises. The Trump administration will participate in its first meeting of the world’s 20 largest economies later this week, and it’s probably no coincidence that G-20 finance ministers are watering down their commitment to the Paris climate change agreement ahead of time.

Back in July, the same G-20 group issued a statement saying governments should pay the $100 billion per year they had committed under the Paris accord and put policies in place to bring the agreement “into force as soon as possible.” Now, Bloomberg has a draft of a statement from the finance ministers that suggests development banks — like the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development — should raise private money to pay the bill. Governments, it argues, are already too strapped. It’s unclear which countries pushed for the change in tone.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel is visiting the White House before the G-20 summit starts on Friday. Some see her visit “as the first opportunity to lay the groundwork to persuade Trump to keep the U.S. in the landmark Paris climate agreement,” according to Politico. Perhaps G-20 officials are trying to craft a statement that the Trump Administration would actually sign. Or maybe some of them are happy to have an excuse to pass the bill to someone else.
Based upon some of the NE radar loops I am looking at, it's a little hard to find a nice closed COC; looks to me like the low is starting to lose some definition..................There is a little bit of rotation moving into Boston off the harbor, between Providence to the South and Boston to the North, but not sure of this is the main coc or a secondary swirl.

It might be possible that the low is starting to get absorbed by the Trof.







Justice is not coming. Not in the form of climate change, health care, wealth inequality, or any measurable that would help the average citizen. All power has been consolidated, Tillerson and Pruit openly mocking truth and ripping to shreds environmental safeguards and openly serving Big Oil. It's not thinly veiled. It's right out in the open for all to see. Paul Ryan openly saying he's very happy tens of millions are going to lose their health insurance if bill passes. They are spitting in the face of good and worshiping the rich. And Evangelicals and Christians in general voted for these anti-christs. We have been fooled and dumbed down to the point we don't recognize truth when it's staring us right in the face. As an Evangelical who cares greatly for truth, my fellow citizen, and the environment; I am sickened and appalled by all this. This has nothing to do with Right and Left. This has everything to do with Right and Wrong.
Two confirmed tornadoes last night in S.W. Florida.
Local news said one of the tornadoes has been confirmed to be an EF1.
Regarding this link from a previous blog:



Link



I liked the idea of debating an actual article with actual data rather than the endless mudslinging. Just opening it up for more discussion.

(Oh, and glad to see that the snowstorm is more of the average spring nor'easter type rather than a huge disaster. The folks that got the big snows can handle the big snows they got/are getting)

Quoting 894. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You were very wise to make your comment on an inactive blog. The study that you link to is on a very localized region of Sweden. Since the topic concerns global climate change then you just made a big swing and a miss.
Quoting 891. iceagecoming:



Don't know which pipe you guys are smoking from, here is some real data to ingest when you come down.

The Holocene 12,6 (2002) pp. 657–665
A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in
northern Swedish Lapland: natural
climatic variability expressed on annual
to millennial timescales

Håkan Grudd,1,2* Keith R. Briffa,3 Wibjorn Karle´n,2
Thomas S. Bartholin,4,5 Philip D. Jones
3 and Bernd Kromer
6
(
1Climate Impacts Research Centre, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, S-981 07 Abisko, Sweden;
2Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary
Geology, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;
3Climatic
Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK;
4Department
of Quaternary Geology, Lund University, Tornav. 13, S-223 63 Lund, Sweden;
5Natural Science Research Institute, National Museum of Denmark, NY
Vestergade II, DK-1471 Copenhagen, Denmark;
6Heidelberg Academy of
Sciences, Inst. f. Umweltphysik, INF 366, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany)

Check out figure 8 for real eye opener. This site is free unlike the paywalled hot head sites.

Link


Quoting 896. iceagecoming:



Hardly a miss.

Conclusions
(1) The Tornetra¨sk tree-ring chronology is annually resolved
and includes continuous data from 5407 bc to ad 1997, providing
a precisely dated record of summer-temperature variability.
664 The Holocene 12 (2002)
(2) The strong association with summer temperature in conjunction
with the large numbers of samples for each year translates
into narrow conŽ dence limits around the expressed temperature
signal in the last 2000 years. The errors are significantly larger in
the pre-Christian era, mainly due to reduced sample depth.
(3) The record displays signifcant temperature changes on
timescales from years to several centuries, which is representative
for a large area in northern Sweden, possibly also for a wider area.
(4) The record does not express the full range of millennialtimescale
temperature variation in the Tornetra¨sk area.

And as such in bold, Siberia and other latitude regions were effected.

Tree-ring width of Pinus sylvestris (von Linné) from 257 subfossil tree samples, supplementary data to: Friedrich, Michael; Kromer, Bernd; Kaiser, Klaus-Felix; Spurk, Marco; Hughen, Konrad A; Johnsen, Sigfus J (2001): High-resolution climate signals in the Bølling-Allerød Interstadial (Greenland Interstadial 1) as reflected in European tree-ring chronologies compared to marine varves and ice-core records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 20(11), 1223-1232

Author: Michael Friedrich; Bernd Kromer; Klaus-Felix Kaiser; Marco Spurk; Konrad A Hughen; All authors
Publisher: Bremen/Bremerhaven PANGAEA - Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science
Edition/Format: Computer file : English
Database: WorldCat
Summary:
Lateglacial and Holocene tree-ring chronologies are unique archives, which provide various information on past environments on a true annual time scale. Changes in ring-width can be related to past climate anomalies and dendrodated wood provides an ideal source for radiocarbon calibration. We present a 1051 year tree-ring chronology from the Late Glacial, built from subfossil Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) that grew in different regions of Central and Southern Europe. Through a series of high-precision radiocarbon measurements we obtained a floating radiocarbon chronology, which allowed accurate wiggle-matching to the INTCAL98 calibration curve. The trees show a coherent pattern in ring-width variations throughout Central Europe, and extending into the Mediterranean, which indicates a strong external climatic factor, most probably temperature during the growing season. We identified major growth events, which appear synchronous with events seen in isotopic and tracer signals in the Greenland ice cores and with changes in the strength of upwelling in the Cariaco Basin.



But since this info is a bee in your bonnet, you get your knickers in a twist.
I post where I see inaccuracies, not on the next topic, Bombogenesis or Blizzard.
Interesting how this happens in a global warming world, Ha, then even said all the ski areas
would be out of business soon, looks like we'll be hitting the slopes up here till May. :)



Interesting article. It's well written and they're nice and detailed about their methods. If I were peer-reviewing it, most of my questions would revolve around the treatment of error. For example, in Figure 3 the error in age estimation is both the width and height of the boxes. From the height alone, most of the errors are over 100 years. They then go on to say that based on one sample, they reduce the error to +/- 10 years (Fig 4). Even if this error can be extrapolated to the rest of the samples (that seems like quite a jump to me), presenting the data on an annual basis as in Fig 8a is clearly not warranted.

Then you have the temperature model. I'm sorry, but a 0.58 and 0.60 correlation factor is NOT a good fit. Not by any estimation. And this is for the years where the model is best understood! They get into this a bit in the paper when they say their error will definitely increase with increasing age.

Upshot is, when you combine both error sources, I don't think this paper says much about the temperature variations at this site in historical times. The strongest conclusion that could be made, in my opinion, is that the temperature in northern Sweden has been remarkably stable over the past 7000 years. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is what those previously posted plots say as well.
Neat! Too bad I missed that storm by a couple decades. :P Would have been really cool to see that much in SC at one time!
Quoting 36. Xandra:

From Grist:

RICH PLEAD POVERTY



Wealthy countries are backing away from their climate promises. The Trump administration will participate in its first meeting of the world%u2019s 20 largest economies later this week, and it%u2019s probably no coincidence that G-20 finance ministers are watering down their commitment to the Paris climate change agreement ahead of time.

Back in July, the same G-20 group issued a statement saying governments should pay the $100 billion per year they had committed under the Paris accord and put policies in place to bring the agreement %u201Cinto force as soon as possible.%u201D Now, Bloomberg has a draft of a statement from the finance ministers that suggests development banks %u2014 like the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development %u2014 should raise private money to pay the bill. Governments, it argues, are already too strapped. It%u2019s unclear which countries pushed for the change in tone.

Germany%u2019s Chancellor Angela Merkel is visiting the White House before the G-20 summit starts on Friday. Some see her visit %u201Cas the first opportunity to lay the groundwork to persuade Trump to keep the U.S. in the landmark Paris climate agreement,%u201D according to Politico. Perhaps G-20 officials are trying to craft a statement that the Trump Administration would actually sign. Or maybe some of them are happy to have an excuse to pass the bill to someone else.


I have said that we would have to wait to see how the rest of the world responds to Trump's anti-climate change stance before we would know how devastating Trump's policies will be in the global effort to try to mitigate the worst that a warming global climate will bring us. I would say that we are about to find out which way this is going to go. Strap in tight, folks. There are indications of severe turbulence ahead.
Everyone have a safe weather evening and particularly in the NE; gonna watch TWC this evening for the snow totals so far. We be back tomorrow with a report on how much snow my kid got in her neck of the woods in Western Mass.

Here is the web link to a live cam at Smith College (she was off today): https://www.smith.edu/video/webcam-bu rton-lawn



Cities Shop for $10 Billion of Electric Vehicles to Defy Trump
Bloomberg, by Joe Ryan, 14. März 2017, 20:46 MEZ
Dozens of U.S. cities are willing to buy $10 billion of electric cars and trucks to show skeptical automakers there’s demand for low-emission vehicles, just as President Donald Trump seeks to review pollution standards the industry opposes.
Thirty cities including New York and Chicago jointly asked automakers for the cost and feasibility of providing 114,000 electric vehicles, including police cruisers, street sweepers and trash haulers, said Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, who is coordinating the effort. That would be comparable to about 72 percent of total U.S. plug-in sales last year. ...

More see link above.

Trump to Drop Climate Change From Environmental Reviews, Source Says
Bloomberg, by Jennifer A Dlouhy, 14. März 2017, 19:06 MEZ
President Donald Trump is set to sign a sweeping directive to dramatically shrink the role climate change plays in decisions across the government, ranging from appliance standards to pipeline approvals, according to a person familiar with the administration’s plan.
The order, which could be signed this week, goes far beyond a targeted assault on Obama-era measures blocking coal leasing and throttling greenhouse gas emissions from power plants that has been discussed for weeks. Some of the changes could happen immediately; others could take years to implement. ...
Good to hear that the snow did not as of yet cause too much chaos and that the main of it so fell inland. I of course may be misinformed being about 3000 miles away.

Meanwhile locally in the Alicante area Spain about half a year rainfall fell in a few hours which is about 6-7 inches for them. There was widespread chaos and flooding. The blame was on the fact that the temps last week were +34/C or about 92 F in the area and the sea got warmed up a lot, so when the easterly blew over it and into the coastal mountains an awful lot of rain fell in a very short time.
Needless to say there is a bit of subdued background muttering going on now about something termed climate change and its EFFECTS?
Loads of snow in the mountains and all the standard chaos it brings.
For a change thunder storms are forecast for the end of the week in the coastal areas near the Atlantic.
What a storm! I must have well over a foot of snow now with most of it coming from about 1-5pm. The wind has been pretty intense for a snowstorm here and is still howling. It has been pretty much whiteout conditions for the entirety of the afternoon.
Quoting 39. Sfloridacat5:

Two confirmed tornadoes last night in S.W. Florida.
Local news said one of the tornadoes has been confirmed to be an EF1.


I could have sworn last night's forecast called for "JUST" cloudy skies >_>. Also there was one confirmed tornado in Plantation..... and that's the only confirmed tornado in Florida.... on the map.... SE FL.... That or they did not record those reports yet. :P
(This image subject to change and may be the wrong one by the time you see it)
the graphics mean nothing w/o a legend.
Toasty here...
From March for Science:

60+ Organizations Join March for Science, Network of Satellite Marches Nears 400 Globally

WASHINGTON (Tuesday, March 14) - The March for Science is pleased to announce 63 additional partnering organizations today. Less than two months after the march was first announced, the number of partners now approaches 100 organizations, which includes global institutions, and ranges from scientific societies to unions.

[...]

“This incredible show of support and interest in becoming partners reflects how important it is to recognize the critical role that science plays in all parts of society, and among different communities providing diverse services around the world,” said Teon Brooks, Co-Director of Partnerships. “We look forward to collaborating with all of our partners and expanding our global network in the coming weeks ahead.”

[...]

In addition to the growing number of partnering organizations, new marches are registered in cities around the world each day. Close to 400 marches and rallies in 37 countries are scheduled to take place on April 22. The March for Science represents an unprecedented gathering of people standing together to champion science that serves the common good, and the indispensable role it plays in our lives and communities.

[...]

Click here to read full article.

Click here for the complete list of all partners.
Reminds me of the storm of 1541.


troubleitwillbe sure it is
Quoting 23. jocapo:

well you managed to pack the supermarkets over the weekend in anticipation of the storm of the century here in the new york area. i'll just choke it up to fake news


No one said it was going to be the storm of the century, for starters it's March not January.
Hey KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
What are you seeing about that toxic spill on the 401?

Saved gif - does not update. Source (weather.msfc.nasa.gov)
Quoting 56. ycd0108:

Hey KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
What are you seeing about that toxic spill on the 401?
what toxic spill heard there was a 30 40 car pile up on 401 near or about Brockville two hrs away by car from me
A stretch of Highway 401 remains shut down east of Gananoque and around 20 people have been taken to hospital following a multi-vehicle collision involving hazardous material.
All lanes of the highway are closed in both directions between Lansdowne and Mallorytown Road – about a 30-minute drive east of Gananoque  -- as a result of the collision.
Ontario Provincial Police said the initial collision occurred at around 2 p.m. and caused several secondary collisions.

“I’m told that there were about 30-plus vehicles involved including 10 to 15 transports,” OPP Const. Sandra Barr told CP24 in a phone interview. “We have one of the transports leaking a hazardous substance so as a precaution we’re doing an evacuation of the immediate area.”
Barr said the evacuation includes vehicles on the highway, as well as surrounding homes.
The Gananoque Police Service said that firefighters have advised that the hazardous material which spilled could turn into hydrofluoric acid if exposed to heat.
“Hydrofluoric acid is a highly toxic, highly corrosive and poisonous solution which is harmful to skin, lungs and eyes,” Gananoque Police said in a social media post about the pileup.
Leeds Township Spokesperson Elaine Mallory told CP24 that 7,000 to 10,000 litres of the hazardous material spilled in the crash.
Police advised motorists stopped because of the collision to remain in their vehicles until they could be safely escorted away from the scene by first responders.
20 people taken to hospital after exposure
At least 20 people – both first responders and civilians – were exposed to the material following the crash, Mallory said.
OPP said five firefighters, three OPP officers and 17 civilians came in contact with the substance and went through a decontamination process that was set up off-site.
Mallory said those people were then transported to hospital in Kingston for observation.
Barr said the driver of the transport carrying hazardous materials is believed to have sustained non-life-threatening injuries in the crash. He was transported to a hospital in Kingston, Ont. via land ambulance.
Ontario Provincial Police, hazmat crews, and local fire services responded to the pileup.
Barr said weather likely played a factor in the collision, with some motorists in the area reporting white-out conditions due to a winter storm.
While cleanup efforts are underway, officials said there is no estimate yet for when the highway will reopen.
“Right now we’re being advised that it will be closed indefinitely,” Mallory said. “With the size of the spill it will be a while before it is remediated out there.”
Motorists are being advised to avoid the area.
Quoting 40. JazzChi:

Regarding this link from a previous blog:



Link



I liked the idea of debating an actual article with actual data rather than the endless mudslinging. Just opening it up for more discussion.

(Oh, and glad to see that the snowstorm is more of the average spring nor'easter type rather than a huge disaster. The folks that got the big snows can handle the big snows they got/are getting)




Interesting article. It's well written and they're nice and detailed about their methods. If I were peer-reviewing it, most of my questions would revolve around the treatment of error. For example, in Figure 3 the error in age estimation is both the width and height of the boxes. From the height alone, most of the errors are over 100 years. They then go on to say that based on one sample, they reduce the error to +/- 10 years (Fig 4). Even if this error can be extrapolated to the rest of the samples (that seems like quite a jump to me), presenting the data on an annual basis as in Fig 8a is clearly not warranted.

Then you have the temperature model. I'm sorry, but a 0.58 and 0.60 correlation factor is NOT a good fit. Not by any estimation. And this is for the years where the model is best understood! They get into this a bit in the paper when they say their error will definitely increase with increasing age.

Upshot is, when you combine both error sources, I don't think this paper says much about the temperature variations at this site in historical times. The strongest conclusion that could be made, in my opinion, is that the temperature in northern Sweden has been remarkably stable over the past 7000 years. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is what those previously posted plots say as well.


There was no reason for me to debate the study. I do not question the findings of the study. The study also does not support iceagecoming's perpetual claims that Earth is facing an impending ice age. Perhaps you have not spent enough time on Rick Rood's blog to know this but iceagecoming will post pictures of a severe cold event or snow event and then try to make the claim that Earth is rapidly plummeting into another ice age. He does so with total disregards to any and all scientific evidence that completely contradicts his claims on this. His degree of denial is far worse than that of Senator Inhofe on this. Iceagecoming would bring a snowball onto the Senate floor and declare that it disproves global warming. He would go further than this and say that it also proves that we are just a year away from Earth becoming "Snowball Earth" again. There was a time that I would try to debate iceagecoming but he would resort to temper tantrums when anyone would show him the fallacies in what he was saying. I reached the point with him that when he would show a picture of a snowfall event that I would just post a picture of a warm event. Neither one of us were proving any points with our pictures, but he certainly believes that he is. You are quite welcome to enter into a discussion with iceagecoming on the study he linked to. My days of doing so ended a few years ago.
Quoting 53. troubleubet:

You guys know nothing about the weather your prediction was for 12 to 24 inches along the coast of New jersey Atlantic city and inland.


Wrong, this was from MT Holly NWS.

"National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1005 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017..

Snowfall amounts across these areas will be highly
dependent on how much mixing occurs. For the warning, snowfall
amounts vary from as much as 4-6 inches across southern portions
of the warning, to as much as 6-10 inches across the northern
portions of the warning. "
Quoting 51. PensacolaDoug:

Take a deep breath, pet a puppy, and listen to Rush Limbaugh. You'll be fine.


If you recommend we should listen to an uneducated, addled, pedophile blowhard why Limbaugh? Aren't there more highly placed examplars of those traits?











This just in: It says March 13 but it wasn't on sciencedaily.com 20 minutes ago. Whatever.

!!! Looking for 'fingerprints' at the intersection of weather and climate

Quoting 51. PensacolaDoug:

Take a deep breath, pet a puppy, and listen to Rush Limbaugh. You'll be fine.

Yeah, because if there's one person who can put science into perspective it's a lying, bloviating, partisan college dropout...and those are among his better qualities.
Quoting 55. MahFL:



No one said it was going to be the storm of the century, for starters it's March not January.


Hey, being discriminatory against March, are you? I want you to look the March 1993 Superstorm in the eye and tell it that it cannot be the storm of the century because it occurred in March.

Quoting 53. troubleubet:

You guys know nothing about the weather


I'm gonna stop you right there. Let me see you forecast a Nor'Easter for the East Coast with no models. Go on, I'll wait.

Edit: For the others, you can do it, I suppose. But it's hard to argue "you guys know NOTHING about the weather" when the poster responsible uses terrible grammar/spelling and uses severe accusations with not an iota of proof, with "my own eyes" not admissible as evidence here.
Snowflakes: a Chapter from the Book of Nature (1863) Many more images inside link

Front endpaper:







Quoting 51. PensacolaDoug:

Take a deep breath, pet a puppy, and listen to Rush Limbaugh. You'll be fine.

I find that riding a bike through the woods on a nice sunny afternoon works well too. It really calms the nerves.
meh...too easy.

470. beell
3:09 AM GMT on March 12, 2017


Move that heavier band about 125.6 miles to the northwest.


Quoting 462. BaltimoreBrian:

Some fun before I go:




A North Atlantic low, ENE of the East Coast snowstorm / Eumetsat Airmass - 0100z:

Quoting 75. BaltimoreBrian:

A Pair of Staten Island Ponies Escaped to Frolic in the Blizzard




They look more like "Shetland" Ponies to me. :)
Quoting 79. Grothar:



They look more like "Shetland" Ponies to me.


They are. The proof is just out of the picture frame.
#59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod):
Thanks.
Quoting 81. ycd0108:

#59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod):
Thanks.


Yikes....
CHARLOTTE COUNTY -

The National Weather Service confirmed two EF-1 tornado touched down in Charlotte County overnight. 

The NWS reports the wind reached 100 miles per hour and hit 0.2 miles outside of Punta Gorda. The other tornado started as a waterspout on the Intracoastal waterway racing in from the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall in Manasota Key.

Families were picking up the pieces of their homes Tuesday afternoon.

Officials believe the tornado hit the Palm Shores community northeast of Punta Gorda on Aspen Road near US-17, where a barn was destroyed. The homeowner said the destruction began just after 10 p.m. and ripped off the barn's roof. Additionally, his truck with a horse trailer attached was picked up by winds and landed on its roof.

"A tornado must have went through. He said your barn is gone and part of it is in my backyard," said resident Gayle Rogers. 

Metal rolling doors were bent and pushed around, furniture could be found in the trees and insulation scattered around in the yards.

Down the road, the high winds also tore the roof off Anneke Mander's home.

"We were in bed. My daughter went downstairs to go to the bathroom and not a minute later, everything breaks lose," Manders said. "Pure scared. Pure fright. It was just very loud. Very scary. Just I've never felt that before. It was horrible."

According to authorities, nine properties sustained damage as a result of the tornado. 

"Frustration. Just like everything, we lost everything, but I thank God we're all OK," Manders said.

Trees surrounding the property were uprooted from the ground.

"Oh, I'm just shocked. I can't believe how fast things can change and how much we take for granted," Rogers said.

But admist all the shock, a subtle reminder she didn't realize she was wearing: Live laugh love.

"Oh it's an old shirt, but it's one of my sayings," she said. "Look for the good things in life because they're there. That's all."

What happened in Manasota Key?

Manasota Key, an area that often struggles with erosion issues, was hit hard. Residents woke up to fallen trees, mangled lawn equipment among other damage. In all, the tornado damaged 24 properties. 

One of those properties was owned by Toni and Tom Orr. From the front of the house, it looks pretty similar to how they bought it in 1979. From the back, a much different scene.

"I was sitting in a chair. My husband sitting in another chair. It was thundering, heard the waves and the rain kind of changed," Toni said.

A living room that now looks more like a back porch as the roof was ripped off revealing the sky that dropped a tornado at precisely 9:16 Monday night.

Toni knows the precise time the storm hit because that's the time the clock is stuck at as it froze after the storm knocked out their power. That's when the couple scrambled for cover.

"When I was shutting this door, I could hear the woo, the low pitch they talk about with the train, and I knew something," Toni said. "I was gonna go into the bathroom. As I opened that door, stuff was flying, so I shut it. This door was already shut and deadbolted, so I dropped down to the ground here, and dropped down to my feet and did the maneuver we teach the kids."

"My husband and I [were in different areas]...we were yelling back and forth to see if we were OK."

Amazingly, among all of the shattered glass and scattered debris, some memories were left completely undisturbed. One of them being a picture frame of Toni's mother who bought the house as her dream home in the late 70s.

Utility crews are trying to return power to 140 homes between Pine Street and River Road in Englewood.

Send photos of storm damage in your property to newstips@NBC-2.com.

The NWS reported another EF-1 tornado hit Broward County.

Quoting 47. isothunder67:



I could have sworn last night's forecast called for "JUST" cloudy skies >_>. Also there was one confirmed tornado in Plantation..... and that's the only confirmed tornado in Florida.... on the map.... SE FL.... That or they did not record those reports yet. :P
(This image subject to change and may be the wrong one by the time you see it)

Quoting 76. BaltimoreBrian:


Drove right past this scene Saturday afternoon. Sad that the snow blower machine had to take a chunk out, but being a jeep, it was probably in need of repairs anyway.

Quoting 47. isothunder67:



I could have sworn last night's forecast called for "JUST" cloudy skies >_>. Also there was one confirmed tornado in Plantation..... and that's the only confirmed tornado in Florida.... on the map.... SE FL.... That or they did not record those reports yet. :P
(This image subject to change and may be the wrong one by the time you see it)



Confirmed Tornado touched down at Nassau, Bahamas Lynden Pindling International Airport
caused a Commercial aircraft to nearly flip and wrecked some cars
38F here in rocky hammock, north florida. roosters are doing their best to get that sun up!
NWS Binghamton‏:
@NWSBinghamton

Preliminary map of observed #snowfall from the #blizzard2017 across #nywx and #pawx.
https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=20170315033 6-KBGM-NOUS41-PNSBGM


(Click image to enlarge)
Good Morning; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look; high pressure is starting to dominate again; very COLD high pressure.......


WPC forgot to mention the SE in this short-range forecast in terms of the Arctic cold blast; freeze warnings all over North Florida and South Georgia overnight.............Forecast down to 28 degrees; I brought the potted plants in last night.........Pretty chilly for mid-March in these parts and it will probably kill off many of the plants and flowers that had an early bloom this year although my Azaleas (in my yard) actually bloomed in late January and ran their course for the season about a month ahead of schedule.


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 AM EDT Wed Mar 15 2017

Valid 12Z Wed Mar 15 2017 - 12Z Fri Mar 17 2017

...Remaining cold over the eastern U.S. with rain and snow for the
northwestern U.S. states...

The powerful nor'easter that has plagued the northeastern U.S. over the
past two days is now beginning to weaken some and will continue lifting
northward into Canada during the day Wednesday. Interior sections of New
England and upstate New York were hammered with 1 to 2+ feet of snow,
while high winds and heavy rain battered the coastal areas from the
Carolinas to Cape Cod. Some lingering snow showers will be likely across
parts of New England on Wednesday with the low over Quebec.

A fresh surge of arctic air will settle in behind this nor'easter across
much of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast through
Thursday. An impressive upper level low will cross the region on
Wednesday, and there will be enough instability to generate periods of
snow showers from the Appalachians to the coast. Once this passes, a
large surface high will settle in from the west and allow for sunny to
partly cloudy skies for the end of the week, while still keeping
below-average temperatures in place.

Out West, a Pacific front moving onshore across Washington and Oregon will
bring periods of rain and mountain snow through Thursday, with an
additional area of enhanced precipitation across the northern Rockies.
Given that a warmer weather pattern will be in place, expect snow levels
to be higher. Flood watches and advisories are in effect for parts of
this region owing to snow melt from the rain and warmer temperatures. It
will continue to stay warm and dry across the Desert Southwest through the
end of the week.

Good morning. Everybody safe again from the snow storm, I hope?

----------------------------------

Here some environmental news from today:

Barcelona team announces superconductivity breakthrough that could revolutionize renewable energy
AFP/The Local, 15 March 2017, 09:42 CET+01:00
European researchers based in Barcelona said on Tuesday they had developed a cheaper and more efficient superconducting tape which could one day be used to double the potency of wind turbines. ...

How electric cars take over oil-rich Norway
With more than 100,000 electric cars already on the road, oil and gas-rich Norway aims to phase out fossil fuel cars altogether by 2025. Can it be done? Lars Bevanger reports from Oslo.
DW, 15.03.2017

Trump targets Obama’s global warming emissions rule for cars
The Hill, by Timothy Cama - 03/15/17 05:00 AM EDT
From Mother Jones:

The EPA Used to Tweet About the Environment. Now It Just Tweets About Scott Pruitt.

It's his own PR firm.


One of the first actions the Trump administration took when it entered office was to crack down on the Environmental Protection Agency, starting with its social-media feeds and website.

The agency's work on climate and energy policy has slowed to a crawl, but it has been replaced with a different focus: the promotion of the new EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt. With one exception, all of the EPA's tweets and Facebook posts since Pruitt's confirmation have been about his various appearances or sharing quotes from the EPA chief or President Donald Trump. The only time the EPA tweeted about an environmental issue, it was to promote Trump's executive order attempting to roll back a Clean Water Act rule. (On Monday, outside of the three-week period we used for this analysis, the EPA finally tweeted about a local grant.)

This is unusual. During the Obama administration, the EPA Twitter account certainly publicized and promoted Administrator Gina McCarthy, but it was a far smaller portion of its work. Here's a comparison of tweets over a three-week period:



Social media was then used as a tool for educating the public about public health problems and environmental initiatives, but under Pruitt, public education work is at a standstill.

[...]

Trump's team froze all social-media accounts and public communications when the new administration took office. The agency is posting updates again now that Pruitt is in charge, but its work on clean air, science, and climate change is far from the focus. The flurry of Twitter activity welcoming Pruitt after he was sworn in has since slowed mostly to promoting his speaking engagements. On Monday, which was out of the range for this comparison, the EPA had one additional tweet about policy but kept up its Pruitt-focused ratio with one quote and retweet from Pruitt.

[...]

Some of the EPA's followers on Facebook and Twitter have noticed the abrupt shift:

Abigail Rathbun: WHERE'S THE SCIENCE? I don't care about Scott Pruitt's PR. I'd love to know about EPA grants that have funded bioremediation or the ongoing clean up work at Super Fund sites. Or perhaps what the EPA will do to fight a98% cut in funding for the Great Lakes.

Matthew Novak: Where's all the educational EPA posts? You guys used to have some awesome science and environmental articles that you'd post. Now, you're just Scott Pruitt's fan club.

Click here to see tweets and to read full article.
I had close friend in North Florida, who moved on to U Penn a few years ago, who was a scientist at the National Magnetic Lab here in Tallahassee and who is one of the foremost scholars in the world on metals superconductivity......Amazing stuff in term of super cooling certain metals, and alloys, to increase electrical current-conductivity. That technology would be very expensive to implement across power lines but the tech is there to make energy grids more efficient; the US Navy has used some of this technology in some of their more recent surface ships instead of opting for nuclear power.
From Phys.org:

European team announces superconductivity breakthrough



European researchers said Tuesday they had developed a cheaper and more efficient superconducting tape which could one day be used to double the potency of wind turbines.

Eurotapes, a European research project on superconductivity—the ability of certain materials to channel electricity with zero resistance and very little power loss—has produced 600 metres (1,968 feet) of the tape, said the coordinator of the project, Xavier Obradors, of the Institute of Materials Science of Barcelona.

"This material, a copper oxide, is like a thread that conducts 100 times more electricity than copper. With this thread you can for example make cables to transport much more electricity or generate much more intense magnetic fields than today," he told AFP.

"This new material could be used to make more potent and lighter wind turbines," he added, predicting it will make it possible to manufacture wind turbines one day with double the potency than existing ones.

In the long run the project could "revolutionise the production of renewable energy," the Institute said in a statement.

Click here to read more.
Many have experimented with this stuff in terms of the magnetic lift in a super cooled environment; some of the people at the Mag lab were chuckled a few years that some students at some university cracked the possible code to UFO technology......................................
Houston forecast

Fire Alert Issued for Southwest Florida
Link

Families frustrated after two EF-1 tornadoes hit Charlotte Co.
Link
Quoting 96. RitaEvac:

Houston forecast




I have been driving home with the T-tops off all week.
Quoting 68. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, because if there's one person who can put science into perspective it's a lying, bloviating, partisan college dropout...and those are among his better qualities.


Don't forget the drug abuse and the many serial marriages.

"update" I guess that's better than "parallel"

Quoting 69. Astrometeor:



Hey, being discriminatory against March, are you? I want you to look the March 1993 Superstorm in the eye and tell it that it cannot be the storm of the century because it occurred in March.




In the Midwest and Great Plains, the epic snow storms tend to be at the edges of the cold season, October-November and March-May. In 2013, a point about 50 miles SE of Minneapolis got its fourth heaviest snow of record for any month, in early May and I think both MSP and Duluth set a top three record October 31, 1991. In 1987, the DC Veterans day snowstorm (Nov 11) was the fifth heaviest of record for any month (been eclipsed since by dumps in 1996 , 2003 2010, and 2016). NYC #1 was a March storm in 1888 but that may have again been eclipsed by a few of the 21'st century dumps, and some points in Eastern PA got over FIFTY inches from a 1958 March storm. It happens! March has some of the most interesting midlatitude cyclones of any month. The upper air pattern in the Northern Hemisphere looks most interesting (read weird and strange) in April when the westerlies adjust to rapid arctic warming. I used to cynically refer to the third or fourth week in April as "cutoff week"
Quoting 68. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, because if there's one person who can put science into perspective it's a lying, bloviating, partisan college dropout...and those are among his better qualities.


don't forget 'drug addict'.

on the weather front, looks like Binghamton got nailed. My brother lives there, says it's the biggest snowstorm he's ever seen there.
Addiction is a disease, and even I wont hold that against a idiot.

Maybe visit your Local VA Hospital and see the effect opioids have had on Veterans.

Semper Fi'


GISTEMP Update

February 2017 Was Second Warmest February On Record
Posted Mar. 15, 2017




February 2017 was the second warmest February in 137 years of modern record-keeping, according to a monthly analysis of global temperatures by scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

Last month was 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean February temperature from 1951-1980. The two top February temperature anomalies have occurred during the past two years.

February 2016 was the hottest on record, at 1.3 degrees Celsius warmer than the February mean temperature. February 2017's temperature was 0.20 degrees Celsius cooler than February 2016.

Global map of the GISTEMP land-ocean temperature index anomaly for February 2017, relative to the 1951-1980 average
Global map of the February 2017 LOTI (land-ocean temperature index) anomaly shows that North America and Siberia were again much warmer than the 1951-1980 base period, and that Europe was relatively warm. — View larger image
The monthly analysis by the GISS team is assembled from publicly available data acquired by about 6,300 meteorological stations around the world, ship- and buoy-based instruments measuring sea surface temperature, and Antarctic research stations.

The modern global temperature record begins around 1880 because previous observations didn't cover enough of the planet. Monthly analyses are sometimes updated when additional data becomes available, and the results are subject to change.

Related Links
For more information on NASA GISS's monthly temperature analysis, visit: data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp.

For more information about NASA GISS, visit: www.giss.nasa.gov.

Media Contacts
Michael Cabbage, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, N.Y., 212-678-5516, mcabbage@nasa.gov

Leslie McCarthy, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, N.Y., 212-678-5507, leslie.m.mccarthy@nasa.gov
Wow, the NASA/GISS data for February 2017 is showing a 1.1 degree C anomaly, which ties for 4th warmest anomaly of any month in recorded history:

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/G LB.Ts+dSST.txt


Pretty impressive warmth, considering it comes just a month after a cooling La Niña event that ended in January 2017.

Warmest months on record since 1880 (expressed as departure from the 1951 - 1980 average):

February 2016, 1.32°C
March 2016, 1.28°C
January 2016, 1.13°C
February 2017, 1.10°C
December 2015, 1.10°C

Jeff Masters
Some video of work being done on the Oroville dam spillway. (Oroville, remember that?)

Oroville Spillway March 11th, 2017

The people walking around out there give some needed since of scale. The spillway wasn't even what they were really worried about.
All of these recent warmth records, and particularly in the Arctic region and northern latitudes in this recent period from 2015 into 2016 and now from 2016 to 2017, are pretty astounding to witness...............It's like the bottom fell out of the Arctic melt issue over the last 24 months; have to believe that melting permafrost, and related methane release, is part of the answer in those higher latitudes.
Disregard.
This Weds, Dance like yer microwave isn't watching.


Werd'
Quoting 104. JeffMasters:

Wow, the NASA/GISS data for February 2017 is showing a 1.1 degree C anomaly, which ties for 4th warmest anomaly of any month in recorded history:

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/G LB.Ts dSST.txt


Pretty impressive warmth, considering it comes just a month after a cooling La Ni%uFFFDa event that ended in January 2017.

Warmest months on record since 1880 (expressed as departure from the 1951 - 1980 average):

February 2016, 1.32%uFFFDC
March 2016, 1.28%uFFFDC
January 2016, 1.13%uFFFDC
February 2017, 1.10%uFFFDC
December 2015, 1.10%uFFFDC

Jeff Masters


What I find even more impressive is that these were all winter months and have happened very recently. Sorry, sun worshipers, but it ain't da sun that is warming the global climate.


image source
If Spring doesn't return to the D.C area soon....

I was outside with some co-workers a little while ago and we were all commenting (here for North Florida) as I mentioned yesterday on here that this mini cold snap for the next few days reminds them of what March used to be like up here. One of the old timers said the past here was first cold snaps around October and November, drizzly rain and coldness to December, some bitter cold shots in January and February, then cool with a few late season cold snaps in March. This year, as well as last year, it was pretty much warm for the entire period..........In, fact I think that tonight will be about the 2nd freeze warning of the entire 2016-2017 Winter season for the Tallahassee/Big Bend region.........Pretty amazing.
Quoting 102. Patrap:

Addiction is a disease, and even I wont hold that against a idiot.

Maybe visit your Local VA Hospital and see the effect opioids have had on Veterans.

Semper Fi'

No, but I would hold against him the fact that he (rightly) had charges dropped in exchange for treatment, having advocated that other drug users be prosecuted and "sent up".

Semper Veridicus
Quoting 111. weathermanwannabe:

I was outside with some co-workers a little while ago and we were all commenting (here for North Florida) as I mentioned yesterday on here that this mini cold snap for the next few days reminds them of what March used to be like up here. One of the old timers said the past here was first cold snaps around October and November, drizzly rain and coldness to December, some bitter cold shots in January and February, then cool with a few late season cold snaps in March. This year, as well as last year, it was pretty much warm for the entire period..........In, fact I think that tonight will be about the 2nd freeze warning of the entire 2016-2017 Winter season for the Tallahassee/Big Bend region.........Pretty amazing.


I remember that old timer regime in the 80s. Lots of frosts from November to March with some deep freezes. I lost fully headed lettuce April 6 or 7 of 1987 with temps in the upper 20s. Large corn plants also froze. April 19, 1986 I forecast scattered frost and it verified in areas around TLH but not at the official observing site or in my rental garden. Low that night was 33F. THe MAY monthly record cold for TLH is 34F.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 108. Patrap:

This Weds, Dance like yer microwave isn't watching.


Werd'


Meanwhile waiting for morning oatmeal sometime in the near future

"Please wait while we install these important updates"
Quoting 102. Patrap:

Addiction is a disease, and even I wont hold that against a idiot.

Maybe visit your Local VA Hospital and see the effect opioids have had on Veterans.

Semper Fi'


listen, i got rachmones for people struggling with addiction, but i run out of ****s to give when we're talking about some dude what made tens of millions of dollars loudly swearing up and down that drug abusers should be locked up.
117. KOPS
As a former meteorology student at FSU and emergency manager - Florida Division of Emergency Management, Fairfax County Emergency Management, Boston Emergency Management and Chicago Emergency Management - I am terming this a bust. I say this only because the hype was extraordinary. In Chicago, I heard about the impending "blockbluster blizzard" that would suffocate Philadelphia, New York City and Boston with 18'-24' in some locations. Maybe that is appropriate ... I am all about public awareness and preparation ... but on Thursday? Four-five days before the event?

Otherwise, a great job as usual!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 42. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I have said that we would have to wait to see how the rest of the world responds to Trump's anti-climate change stance before we would know how devastating Trump's policies will be in the global effort to try to mitigate the worst that a warming global climate will bring us. I would say that we are about to find out which way this is going to go. Strap in tight, folks. There are indications of severe turbulence ahead.


DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WANT AT LEAST $5.4 TRILLION
In May, the French foreign minister, who is now presiding over the Paris talks, explained that the willingness of the U.S. and other developed countries to transfer money to developing countries would play a “decisive” role in reaching an international agreement on climate change.

As of last Friday, 73 developing countries had submitted plans for how much they would reduce their own emissions. They also estimated that meeting these goals would come with a high price tag: approximately $5.4 trillion by 2030. India alone estimates that it wants $2.5 trillion by 2030. South Africa says it wants $909 billion. Iran says it wants $840 billion – and warned that its greenhouse gas pledge is entirely dependent on the removal of all sanctions.

The countries expect to pay for just $253 billion of the total themselves. Another $1 trillion would come from international sources. The countries offered no explanation of where the bulk of the money – $4.1 trillion – would come from. Presumably, they expect other countries to eventually fund that shortfall.
Link

These huge figures do not even include the desires of at least 50 developing countries that declined to provide specific estimates. They also do not include the financial requests of another 40 developing countries that the Organisation for Cooperation and Development projected could be eligible for international assistance in the future.



https://www.rpc.senate.gov/policy-papers/stopping -the-presidents-climate-slush-fund

Would these funds help warm up the US so we won't have any more 23 inch snow dumps mid March?
If so, I am in!