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All Eyes on East Coast as Big Snowmaker Looms for Tuesday

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:30 PM GMT on March 13, 2017

A classic late-season nor’easter has all the ingredients to produce what could be near-record-heavy March snow and dangerously strong winds in coastal cities from Washington, D.C., to Boston, and onward into southeast Canada. But if the devil were ever in the details, it’s right now. The dividing line between rain and snow in this storm, dubbed Stella by The Weather Channel, will be close enough to the Interstate 95 corridor to keep forecasters sweating. Right now it appears that the meteorological bounty will be mainly in the form of snow for the big East Coast cities. However, just a minor shift in track could bring rain or sleet into the metropolitan areas, at least for a brief period.

There’s no doubt that a big storm is in the cards. Upper-level energy from two sources—a large trough swinging across the Midwest and an upper-level wave at the base of this trough over the Southern Plains—will be joining forces along the East Coast by Tuesday. The interplay between these two factors is just one of the elements of uncertainty on the table.

What’s clear is that a surface low off the central Gulf Coast on Monday morning will begin to strengthen near the Outer Banks Monday night, then rapidly intensify as it moves northeast along and/or just off the East Coast through the day on Tuesday. As shown in Figure 1 below, the 12Z Monday run of the GFS model deepens the low 23 millibars in 24 hours, from 2:00 am EDT Tuesday to 2:00 am Wednesday, as it moves from near Cape Hatteras, NC (1000 mb), to the central coast of Maine (977 mb). This would bring the low very close to the official definition of a meteorological “bomb”—a midlatitude low that deepens at least 24 millibars in 24 hours.


Figure 1. The surface low associated with Winter Storm Stella will deepen very rapidly as it progresses from offshore Delaware to Maine from 2:00 am EDT Tuesday, March 14, to 2:00 am EDT Wednesday. Colors depict the altitude, in tens of meters, of the 500-millibar surface, corresponding to the upper-level low digging sharply into the East Coast and supporting the strengthening of the surface low. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Snow lovers will be delighted to hear that Monday morning’s models are leaning toward a storm track just far enough offshore to keep the big cities mainly in the snow camp, especially north of Washington. This had been thrown into some doubt on Sunday night, when the major models began inching the system just far enough toward the coast to raise the odds of rain or sleet nudging into the urban corridor, especially Washington and Boston. There is still room for the models to swing a bit eastward or westward before the storm arrives, though.

Regardless of precipitation type, this storm’s intensity and rapid development will make it a formidable wind producer. Where it snows heavily, downed trees and power lines could jeopardize electricity and transportation for an extended period. Tuesday morning will be an especially tough point: we can expect at least some major airports to be closed, and highway travel will be extremely unpleasant where it’s not impossible. Blizzard warnings are in effects from northern New Jersey across the New York metro area and western/central Long Island into southern Connecticut. Winds gusts of up to 55 mph are expected on Tuesday, especially near the coast.


Figure 2. Snowfall totals projected by The Weather Company/IBM's Deep Thunder model (formerly known as RPM) for the period from 8:00 am EDT Monday, March 13, through 7:00 pm EDT Tuesday, March 14. "It does look like eastern PA through northern NJ and into central upstate NY will be the 'jackpot' zone," said Michael Ventrice (TWC). Image credit: The Weather Company, An IBM Business.

Outlooks for some major cities

Washington: The forecast remains especially tricky for D.C., not only because the rain/snow transition line will angle from southeast to northeast very close to the metro area, but also because the storm’s heaviest precipitation rates will kick in from D.C. northeastward. This leaves Washington on the edge of two transition zones sitting at right angles. It’s quite possible that a slice of warmer air will wrap toward the D.C. area ahead of the fast-strengthening surface low, bringing a period of rain and/or sleet near or into the city. On the other hand, the storm’s heaviest precipitation will hit the District in the early morning hours Tuesday, a time frame that will maximize the odds of accumulating snow (which would be tougher to accomplish at midday this late in the season).

The probabilistic NWS guidance posted at 8 am EDT Monday morning gave the District as little as 3” or as much as 13” of snow, with best odds of around 5”. Capital Weather Gang was slightly more pessimistic in its outlook issued just before noon EDT Monday, giving the northwest part of the District best odds of 3” - 7” but deeming 1” - 4” most likely in the southeast District. “We have bumped down snowfall totals in the immediate metro area for the second time in the last 12 hours as the likely storm track has shifted closer to the coast, which will draw in more mild air,” wrote CWG’s Jason Samenow.

New York: The New York City area is just far enough northwest of the expected storm track to give it the best odds among the I-95 cities of avoiding a changeover to rain during the storm. Some of the very heaviest snow could be within 100 miles of the city, especially across northern New Jersey into central Connecticut and perhaps extending into the metro area as well. The probabilistic snow outlook for New York, issued by the city’s National Weather Service office at 6:00 am EDT Monday morning, pegged the most likely snowfall amount for New York City at a very impressive 20”, with a reasonable chance of as little as 11” or as much as 23”.

Boston: Snow totals are more likely to be higher in Boston than in D.C., but again there’s the chance here that warm air wrapping around the nearby surface low will work its way near or into the city. “This will cut into snowfall totals,” tweeted meteorologist Michael Ventrice at The Weather Company (@MJVentrice), pointing to output from TWC’s Deep Thunder model. “If this changeover happens, it would be just for 1-2 hours, then flip back to snow as the low pulls away,” he added. The 11:30 am EDT briefing from NWS/Boston did not include the type of probabilistic guidance noted above for Washington and New York, but it showed an expected range of 12” - 18” for Boston.


Figure 3. The rapidly strengthening surface low associated with Winter Storm Stella will be located just east of the Delmarva Peninsula at 8:00 am EDT Tuesday, March 14, 2017, according to the 12Z Monday run of the GFS model. Precipitation amounts shown are for the six-hour period ending at 8:00 am EDT Tuesday. The rain-snow dividing line evident near Washington, D.C., could end up further northwest or southeast, and the transition zone will move northeastward over time. Image credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com.

What might be Stella’s place in history?
“Nail biter!” said NOAA’s Paul Kocin when I asked him for his take on the storm just after noon on Monday. Kocin is coauthor with NWS director Louis Uccellini of the definitive reference book “Northeast Snowstorms.” “As you can tell, this is a nightmare to forecast, with the rain/sleet/snow transition region right near the big cities,” he added. Northwest of the urban corridor, it’s not so tough, Kocin said: “Easy for Allentown, Poughkeepsie, Hartford, etc.”

There is certainly the potential for Stella to go down in the record books among the bigger March storms in Northeast history. The two greatest March storms on record for the region as a whole are the Great Blizzard of 1888 and the 1993 Storm of the Century, both of which we discussed in our Friday post. Below are the top three March snowstorms for the three cities discussed above.

Washington
12.0”: March 27-28, 1891
11.5”: March 28-29, 1942
10.7”: March 7-8, 1941

New York
21”: March 12-14, 1888
18.1”: March 7-8, 1941
14.5”: March 3-4, 1960, and March 1-2, 1914

Boston
25.4”: March 31–April 1, 1997
19.8”: March 3-5, 1960
15.5”: March 3-5, 1981

A modest coastal flooding threat by nor’easter standards
The exceptionally strong winds of Stella will drive a peak storm surge of 1 - 3 feet on Tuesday along much of the coast of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the islands. The main concern for coastal flooding will come Tuesday during the late morning/early afternoon high tide cycle, when the strong winds of the storm will coincide with high waters from a higher-than-usual high tide, due to the full moon that occurred on Sunday. The highest storm tides are expected in western Long Island Sound, where the peak storm surge is expected about two hours after high tide early Tuesday afternoon. Wave heights on the ocean waters off the coast are forecast to range from 12 to 18 feet, with breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet at the shore, especially along the Atlantic-facing Delaware and Jersey beaches.

The waves and storm surge will cause significant coastal erosion. However, only minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected, due to the relatively rapid motion of the storm across the area. Slow-moving nor’easters are a much bigger coastal flooding threat, since the wind has more time to pile large amounts of water up against the coast. According to Monday morning run of the experimental NOAA Extratropical Storm Surge Model, these are the peak storm surge (height of the water above normal) and storm tide (height of the water above the high tide mark) expected on Tuesday along the coast:

Boston, MA: 2.6’ storm surge, 0.7’ storm tide (peak storm surge occurs at low tide, so a relatively low peak storm tide occurs)
Bridgeport, CT: 3.0’ storm surge, 1.5’ storm tide
King’s Point, NY (east side of NYC): 3.5’ storm surge, 2.5’ storm tide
The Battery, NY: 2.3’ storm surge, 1.4’ storm tide
Sandy Hook, NJ: 2.6’ storm surge, 1.6’ storm tide
Atlantic City, NJ: 2.1’ storm surge, 1.6’ storm tide
Lewes, DE: 2.1’ storm surge, 1.3’ storm tide

In advance of Stella, a dramatic Great Lakes low
A compact area of low pressure called a mesovortex developed over southern Lake Michigan on Sunday, March 12, associated with the strong upper-level trough that will help intensify Winter Storm Stella on Tuesday. Below is a remarkable loop of preliminary, non-operational imagery from the new GOES-16 satellite (animation courtesy NWS/Marquette). See the CIMSS Satellite Blog for more on this feature.

We'll be back with a new post on Tuesday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters




Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks like a big storm for the Northeast. Having lived in Florida my whole life, I can't even imagine what that much snow looks like. Anyways, cloudy with light rain here in St. Petersburg FL. Going to be cold by Florida standards for March with highs barely reaching 60 midweek. I'm not sure what the record low highs are but we could get close to those.
Thank You both so much for great summary of the potential impacts (as usual) from this Winter storm. Question related to the Gulf low if you can answer it. Sheer in the Gulf is preventing the surface low from deepening in that region. In looking at the current sheer charts (below) there seems to been a "gap" of sorts in the region just off of the Outer Banks on the way to the NE (as well as a lowering sheer window there over the past 24 hours) in terms of the upper level sheer and not much of a gap in the current mid-level sheer.

Is this part of the reason that the low is going to be able to deepen in that area (or something else that I am missing?); just wondering if sheer can impact the surface and-mid level consolidation of a cold cored winter low in the same manner that it often impacts tropical surface lows...............Thanks in Advance.




Thank you both for the new entry.
Thank you for the great article! I've posted my personal forecast for Philadelphia on my personal Facebook. It's super long but when I get in a groove I just go with it haha
That video of the mesovortex over Lake Michigan is amazing. Mesovortices are so cool-looking, even if they're meteorologically unimpressive. I can't wait for GOES-16 to be totally operational!
12z ECMWF seems pretty close to GFS on low track. Maybe slightly deeper.
Here's a closer up
Temps underperforming a little so far (forecast high of 43), with cirrus rolling in to block insolation. Hoping for lots of snow
Current conditions at
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC (KDCA)
Lat: 38.85NLon: 77.03WElev: 13ft.

Mostly Cloudy
38F
3C
Humidity 43%
Wind Speed SE 6 mph
Barometer 30.43 in (1030.5 mb)
Dewpoint 17F (-8C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Wind Chill 33F (1C)
Last update 13 Mar 12:52 pm EDT
Quoting 2. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You both so much for great summary of the potential impacts (as usual) from this Winter storm. Question related to the Gulf low if you can answer it. Sheer in the Gulf is preventing the surface low from deepening in that region. In looking at the current sheer charts (below) there seems to been a "gap" of sorts in the region just off of the Outer Banks on the way to the NE (as well as a lowering sheer window there over the past 24 hours) in terms of the upper level sheer and not much of a gap in the current mid-level sheer.

Is this part of the reason that the low is going to be able to deepen in that area (or something else that I am missing?); just wondering if sheer can impact the surface and-mid level consolidation of a cold cored winter low in the same manner that it often impacts tropical surface lows...............Thanks in Advance.


Good question! I would view the trend toward reduced shear over the Outer Banks/Northeast as a marker of upper-level divergence ahead of the developing trough. This divergence, in turn, will assist low-level convergence and the rapid intensification of the surface low. So the reduced shear is indeed associated with cyclogenesis in this case, but not in quite the same way as with a warm-core tropical low.
Lots of different whirls and swirls out in the Gulf but it looks like that might be the coc of low due South of the Alabama-Florida border from what I can tell on this vis loop unless the emerging coc is that area due South of Louisiana as noted on the most recent surface chart (as of 12:30 pm EST): hard to tell as everything is moving so fast across the Northern Gulf in the zonal flow.







I smell another snowquester (3/6/13 AKA fail storm) happening in D.C.I've seen this before......
Quoting 2. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You both so much for great summary of the potential impacts (as usual) from this Winter storm. Question related to the Gulf low if you can answer it. Sheer in the Gulf is preventing the surface low from deepening in that region. In looking at the current sheer charts (below) there seems to been a "gap" of sorts in the region just off of the Outer Banks on the way to the NE (as well as a lowering sheer window there over the past 24 hours) in terms of the upper level sheer and not much of a gap in the current mid-level sheer.

Is this part of the reason that the low is going to be able to deepen in that area (or something else that I am missing?); just wondering if sheer can impact the surface and-mid level consolidation of a cold cored winter low in the same manner that it often impacts tropical surface lows...............Thanks in Advance.






Tropical systems get energy from latent heat which is less efficient with shear. Extratropical systems spin up due to air density differences which are usually accompanied by shear
Thanks Mr. Henson; this current upper level divergence chart essentially illustrates your analysis below with the favorable divergence to pushing off the East coast over the Outer Banks ahead of the trof as well as some connection to the emerging low in the Gulf at that upper level:




Thanks for the good new entry and esp. the amazing GOES-16-loop!

Your US blizzard is already affecting my Germany, lol:
Snow threat pushes back Trump-Merkel meeting in Washington
Politico, by Louis Nelson, 03/13/17 02:15 PM EDT
BTW, maybe Merkel is going to talk to No 45 about ....
Stu Ostro‏:
@StuOstro

That's some serious atmospheric dynamics going on there tomorrow @AliciaMBentley

Quoting 16. Gearsts:



As if time change was not enough.
Quoting 16. Gearsts:




If you could put that to music it would be a viral video
Parts of PA and NJ just upgraded to Blizzard Warning.

Quoting 18. Qazulight:



If you could put that to music it would be a viral video
Slip Slidin' Away. Change the name in the song from Dolores to Stella?
I'm curious - Isn't a nor'easter a storm with a counter clockwise rotation that has winds out the the north-east as the storm passes by the New England coast? Shouldn't this report open with "A classic late-season snow storm has all the ingredients to produce what could be near-record-heavy March nor’easter..."? Wouldn't we need to wait know if the flow is from the north-east until after the storm is in progress?
Quoting 23. Grothar:




That looks like a good day to be in Miami. ;)
Quoting 25. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



That looks like a good day to be in Miami. ;)


Boring weather today down here. Cristal clear skies, balmy breeze, 78 deg.
Good stuff. Be good if you added Baltimore and Philadelphia to your breakdown.
Surge, tomorrow afternoon 2 PM


Quoting 26. Grothar:



Boring weather today down here. Cristal clear skies, balmy breeze, 78 deg.


That sounds like a two umbrella day. One to sit under and one for your drink. Yes, they make little umbrellas for tea and lemonade as well. ;)

Cucumber lemonade


The end results appear to be the same, at least for the glass.
30. mati
Halifax is in for ANOTHER big dump will need help from:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHhKMu8jrfw
A true spring snowstorm.

AF309 out for Winter Storm Recon

000
URNT15 KNHC 131928
AF309 03WSA TRACK62 HDOB 05 20170313


Tropical Atlantic
weekly total ground level snow accumulation cm out too hr 144 sunday mar 19

gfs 12z

Quoting 22. Grothar:


I'm a bit confused the NWS says winds 30-40mph, an gusts over 55 for the North Shore of Massachusetts, with 12-18+ inches of snow, yet no blizzard warning, but that sure sounds like a blizzard.
I understand for the south shore there is going to be changeover during the times of highest winds but not in Northern Mass.
xx/xx/xx



unleash the four winds
36. HBO1
"From Washington, DC to Boston". Is there some kind of wall in Boston? Glad to hear we're not going to get any snow up here in Maine. /s
Ohhhhh boy another one of these thrillers. I live in the southern area of NH, and i can say this looks pretty strong. Stay cautious and well in this late Nor'Easter.
Quoting 36. HBO1:

"From Washington, DC to Boston". Is there some kind of wall in Boston? Glad to hear we're not going to get any snow up here in Maine. /s


Quoting 23. Grothar:




I am sitting here trying to imagine what it would be like for people during the times before such severe weather events, that are beginning to happen on the upper east coast, could be forecast with the tools that we have available to us now. We now can see these events beginning to form and with time to prepare. We even have the availability to get supplies from the stores. This saves lives and property. Just a few decades ago many would have lost life and property because they lacked the time to prepare.

RAP HR 19 TUE 14Z
Freeze Warning for me!

Freeze types:
32-28 degrees: Regular Freeze
28-24 degrees: 'Ard freeze
24 degrees and below: Ded 'ard freeze

Tonight: 28 degrees: 'Ard freeze
Tuesday night; 20 degrees: Ded 'Ard freeze
Wednesday night, 24 degrees: Ded 'ard freeze

Quoting 26. Grothar:



Boring weather today down here. Cristal clear skies, balmy breeze, 78 deg.
Kind of the same down-down here: Sunny and breezy, 74.4 degrees, but the sky is partly cloudy and the afternoon "breeze" is becoming more like windy. Still mighty pleasant.
RAP 16Z TUE
From UW:

A scientist and a supercomputer re-create a tornado



With tornado season fast approaching or already underway in vulnerable states throughout the U.S., new supercomputer simulations are giving meteorologists unprecedented insight into the structure of monstrous thunderstorms and tornadoes. One such recent simulation recreates a tornado-producing supercell thunderstorm that left a path of destruction over the central Great Plains in 2011.

[...]

Using real-world observational data, the research team was able to recreate the weather conditions present at the time of the storm and witness the steps leading up to the creation of the tornado. The archived data, taken from a short-term operational model forecast, was in the form of an atmospheric sounding, a vertical profile of temperature, air pressure, wind speed and moisture. When combined in the right way, these parameters can create the conditions suitable for tornado formation, known as tornadogenesis.

[...]

In total, their EF-5 simulation took more than three days of run time. In contrast, it would take decades for a conventional desktop computer to complete this type of processing.

[...]


A colorized image of the tornado-producing supercell nearly 20 miles long and 12 miles high. The imagery from the simulation was built upon real world data collected near the May 24, 2011 supercell, which spawned several tornadoes including the EF-5 that touched down near El Reno and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
NAM 18Z 3 km resolution, snowfall accumulation only (sleet not included)

Here is the updated max surface vort for the Gulf as of 2:00 PM; that current trajectory supports the current model guidance that the low is going be pretty close to the NE Coast, with impacts inland, as opposed to further offshore.......Things can change in 24 hours but it looks like the low is going to cross over to the Atlantic over Northern Florida as opposed to further down the Peninsula:



Shades of March 2013 on the models for D.C.Areas to the N.W and to the N.E of us saw a abundance of snow.Meanwhile all we saw here fat flakes and mostly rain with strong gust.The Sun angle and proximity to the river in downtown D.C is working against people who want snow.This isn't December,January or February.
how the cherry trees fare so far down that way wash
Quoting 26. Grothar:



Boring weather today down here. Cristal clear skies, balmy breeze, 78 deg.

Yer we had all that last week; parallelized with boredom as the temps got to 92F in the Med zone.
Now this morning is something completely different with +4/C or about 40 /F and driving rains, snow and howling gales.
Still goes to show, you cant trust spring being here before springtime and last week they were saying "its Summer without going through spring here."
Looking forward to the next few days reports live on here.
Quoting 36. HBO1:

"From Washington, DC to Boston". Is there some kind of wall in Boston? Glad to hear we're not going to get any snow up here in Maine. /s


No dissing of Maine's snow potential implied! I've reworded the lead so it acknowledges that the storm will be dumping big snow all the way to the Canadian Maritimes.
Since the topic is winter weather and many of us have not really experienced any winter weather up until now (this winter) I guess there is not much to say. :D
Another 2" snow in S C IL, roads warm enough really didn't stick to them. Missed the Sat. one, it stayed W of StL. Freeze warning now in effect until Thurs a.m.

Currently 34, slightly over 30", & light northerly winds. Hope the power stays on out E, stay safe!
Quoting 25. Some1Has2BtheRookie:
That looks like a good day to be in Miami. ;)

... or Cape Town :D
I see there has been a sight remap here! Anyways, great to see you guys, have not been here recently, as I had forgotten about this place. Now that the possible "Great Blizzard of 2017", is about hit my area, New Jersey, I had remembered, and ran here! School is already canceled here, for tomorrow, teachers are unsure about Wednesday. Forecasts are saying 18-24, but I am not too sure that will hold. Like Dr Masters said, it is about the freezing line. I will update again tomorrow about what happens. If anyone here has anymore news, please tell me!

P.S.

Sorry for forgetting about you people!
two systems about to merge! i love being able to compare the radar maps with the vis sat maps, it's so beautifully synchronized. thanks science and nasa/noaa for giving us this knowledge, and these stunning views!





and just this, because it's awesome, full moon setting over the north pacific, looking back east


On Monday, the American Meteorological Society, a key scientific organization whose members have considerable expertise in studying the climate and weather, wrote a letter to Pruitt strongly critiquing the remarks.

“The world’s 7 billion people are causing climate to change and our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the primary cause,” wrote the group’s executive director, Keith Seitter. “This is a conclusion based on the comprehensive assessment of scientific evidence. It is based on multiple independent lines of evidence that have been affirmed by thousands of independent scientists and numerous scientific institutions around the world. We are not familiar with any scientific institution with relevant subject matter expertise that has reached a different conclusion.”

The Environmental Protection Agency did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the American Meteorological Society’s letter.

Not long afterward, a group of 30 U.S. scientists who share an expertise in climate change also wrote to Pruitt, with a similar message. As they put it:

… human beings are changing the Earth’s climate. This key conclusion follows from the basic laws of physics. Just as there is no escaping gravity when one steps off a cliff, there is no escaping the warming that follows when we add extra carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.


Link

Quoting 54. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



The ending part, where the wintery mix like thing comes in at the end of the storm scares me.
Quoting 57. earthisanocean:

two systems about to merge! i love being able to compare the radar maps with the vis sat maps, it's so beautifully synchronized. thanks science and nasa/noaa for giving us this knowledge, and these stunning views!





and just this, because it's awesome, full moon setting over the north pacific, looking back east





I dont really think of it as merging, id rather think they share the energy, start with two brains, one gets smaller and the other grows and swallows the other :D
Quoting 48. washingtonian115:

Shades of March 2013 on the models for D.C.Areas to the N.W and to the N.E of us saw a abundance of snow.Meanwhile all we saw here fat flakes and mostly rain with strong gust.The Sun angle and proximity to the river in downtown D.C is working against people who want snow.This isn't December,January or February.

Yeah it is not January or February. My place had highs in the mid seventies in February. Yesterday it was 20 degrees. I live in New Jersey. Now tell me what month it really is.
Some moderate to heavy rain moving in from the Gulf on me in St Pete Florida. Cool outside, low 70s. Some of the cells south of me looked impressive earlier. We are in a marginal risk, but I'm not expecting anything severe at the moment.
Roundup of expert snow predictions: Can you out-forecast them? (POLL)

Hey, here is a chance for WU members to shine. Put in what you think may happen. Would be interesting to see how well members here compare with the public at large.
Quoting 63. daddyjames:

Roundup of expert snow predictions: Can you out-forecast them? (POLL)

Hey, here is a chance for WU members to shine. Put in what you think may happen. Would be interesting to see how well members here compare with the public at large.

Definately 4-8 for Reagan Intl! But im expecting 15-18 at my place in NJ! Just remain hopeful DJ!
Well to all of you up in that neck of the woods, stay warm and safe (and that includes all the fam I have up there).
Drought, Deforestation Set to Propel Vicious Amazon Die Off

Thirty-eight percent of the Amazon Basin is at risk due to a self-amplifying process of drought and forest die off — which is made worse by industrial-scale agricultural production.


Credit: Per-Anders Pettersson/Getty
Reduced rainfall across the Amazon basin is causing large areas of forests to die, which could be amplifying drought conditions across the region.

Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research believe that this process, known as self-amplifying forest loss, could cause a vicious circle of drought and further forest loss across the Amazon region, according to a study published in Nature Communications.


Link

Everyone have a safe weather evening; off to watch TWC this evening; please make sure you are ready for this storm in the NE with supplies, warm clothing, and what ever else you might need.........Time is just about running out once the winds start to pick up tomorrow: one wind report in TN already today as this whole mess closes in on the Eastern Seaboard and NE:



today Reports Graphic







Quoting 65. daddyjames:

Well to all of you up in that neck of the woods, stay warm and safe (and that includes all the fam I have up there).

Thanks, and i will report back probably tomorrow!
Quoting 64. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Definately 4-8 for Reagan Intl! But im expecting 15-18 at my place in NJ! Just remain hopeful DJ!


I put that down as mine as well. But mine was a wild guess, nothing scientific about it.
My forecast: Link
Well the blog made it through 57 comments without changing back into the same exact discussions we see every day in every blog. For some weird reason, I thought this blog wouldn't end up like every other blog.

It was great while it lasted.

We're really hoping for rain tonight across S.W. Florida to put an end to all the fires we've been experiencing.
We even had a new fire today in Naples that has threatened some homes.

Naples homes threatened by brush fire
Posted: Mar 13, 2017 4:31 PM EDT
Updated: Mar 13, 2017 5:47 PM EDT
Link
COLLIER COUNTY -
Homes in one Golden Gate Estates neighborhood are being threatened by a brush fire, according to North Collier Fire Rescue.

The flames threaten several homes on 1st Avenue SW off Collier Boulevard %u2013 just south of Golden Gate Boulevard.

Ten units from the agency, as well as eight more from the Greater Naples Fire Control District, are on the scene of the six-acre blaze.

Both 1st and 3rd avenues SW are closed to all traffic except for residents.

Smoke can be seen in the North Naples area.

No evacuations have been called thus far.

Mean while we also have the 7500 acre fire that firefighters just recently got contained. Hope tomorrow's cold front doesn't get that fire going again.
Blizzard warning Text

Blizzard Warning
Issued: 4:16 PM EDT Mar. 13, 2017 – National Weather Service

... Blizzard Warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to
midnight EDT Tuesday night...

* locations... northeastern New Jersey, Rockland and Westchester
New York, southwest Connecticut and interior southeast
Connecticut, New York City, and western Long Island.

* Hazard types... heavy snow and blizzard conditions. Some freezing
drizzle late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

* Snow accumulations... 12 to 24 inches.

* Ice accumulations... a few hundredths of an inch or less.

* Snowfall rates... 2 inches to locally 3 inches per hour from
very early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing... late tonight through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts... dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at
times. Several roads may become impassable. Power outages
possible.

* Winds... northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Temperatures... in the upper 20s.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.
Quoting 73. Sfloridacat5:

Well the blog made it through 57 comments without changing back into the same exact discussions we see every day in every blog. For some weird reason, I thought this blog wouldn't end up like every other blog.

It was great while it lasted.

We're really hoping for rain tonight across S.W. Florida to put an end to all the fires we've been experiencing.
We even had a new fire today in Naples that has threatened some homes.

Naples homes threatened by brush fire
Posted: Mar 13, 2017 4:31 PM EDT
Updated: Mar 13, 2017 5:47 PM EDT
COLLIER COUNTY -
Homes in one Golden Gate Estates neighborhood are being threatened by a brush fire, according to North Collier Fire Rescue.

The flames threaten several homes on 1st Avenue SW off Collier Boulevard %u2013 just south of Golden Gate Boulevard.

Ten units from the agency, as well as eight more from the Greater Naples Fire Control District, are on the scene of the six-acre blaze.

Both 1st and 3rd avenues SW are closed to all traffic except for residents.

Smoke can be seen in the North Naples area.

No evacuations have been called thus far.

Mean while we also have the 7500 acre fire that firefighters just recently got contained. Hope tomorrow's cold front doesn't get that fire going again.


Wait what have i missed?
Quoting 71. gr8lakebreeze:

The peach and plum crops will take a hit with this.





Area farmers bracing for the worst as mid-March freeze threatens crops



Read more here: http://www.heraldonline.com/news/local/article1382 58783.html#storylink=cpy


Unfortunately, this is bad news for those in D.C. and southwards!
Quoting 38. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






Is the Kuchera ratio to be trusted? It seems like projected snow totals are wayyy higher for this storm when Kuchera snow ratios are used, and I'm not sure how much weight to put in that.
Two weeks ago, amidst record high temperatures, my daffodils sprung up like little bunnies. Last week, they threw out buds, which turned into flowers. They all bloomed. Then on Thursday, temperatures dropped to below freezing. The next day, it snowed. Some daffodils died. Others are stunned and fallen. And tonight into tomorrow, guess what! We have a blizzard! Wonder whats next. . .

Funny how the weather changes so easily.
Quoting 838. weathermanwannabe:

And the low over the mid-west continues to deepen as it dives down into Kansas; also looking like Nashville is going to get some more snow today based on the Winter mosaic radar loops:









I don't put much credit into that snow depth graphic. Nashville didn't get any snow (from what I'm aware of) from the southern system the other day. The snow in that hugged the TN-AL border. My parents in Nashville reported 0 flakes. Southern PA does not have any snow cover on the ground right now, only snow exists in isolated spots.

As for the big system, temperature overperformed today, reaching 39 degrees, higher than the NWS forecast of 35. Hope it falls quickly for the snow tonight, ground is frozen and ready to go.
Hope everyone to be affected by Stella remains safe!

The poor plants though. All those early bloomers due to the recent record heat are going to suffer quite badly!
Quoting 80. Envoirment:

Hope everyone to be affected by Stella remains safe!

The poor plants though. All those early bloomers due to the recent record heat are going to suffer quite badly!

True, i just put a post about my daffodils and how they are suffering! Trees all over my county have flowers! And its march in NJ!
I also noticed that the date joined bug and the number of posts and comments bug has not been fixed yet.
Quoting 37. Weatherlover15:

Ohhhhh boy another one of these thrillers. I live in the southern area of NH, and i can say this looks pretty strong. Stay cautious and well in this late Nor'Easter.


NWS is calling for 14-18 inches and Weather Channel says 18-24 inches in the area. Hopefully work is canceled tomorrow otherwise I have to do I-93 from Concord to Salem and back. Very scary indeed!
Quoting 82. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

I also noticed that the date joined bug and the number of posts and comments bug has not been fixed yet.


I don't think they're going to bother fixing it with the new blog format just two weeks away.
Quoting 80. Envoirment:

Hope everyone to be affected by Stella remains safe!

The poor plants though. All those early bloomers due to the recent record heat are going to suffer quite badly!

I seen a robin today
up against the building picking at some seed and peanuts shells
peeps got put out for the squirrels
she was weak I walk right up to her never even flew away
ground is rock hard no bugs out for her
if the storm don't kill her tonight or tomorrow
starvation will I will find her likely
in a snow bank somewhere on the property
sad they came north too early
Quoting 84. Astrometeor:



I don't think they're going to bother fixing it with the new blog format just two weeks away.
correct it will play out as it is
Quoting 79. Astrometeor:



I don't put much credit into that snow depth graphic. [...] Southern PA does not have any snow cover on the ground right now, only snow exists in isolated spots.


Philly still has a decent layer of snow on grass/dirt, but I can't vouch for anywhere else in southern PA.

Quoting 79. Astrometeor:



As for the big system, temperature overperformed today, reaching 39 degrees, higher than the NWS forecast of 35. Hope it falls quickly for the snow tonight, ground is frozen and ready to go.


Temperature overperformed here too - the temperature reached a high of 41° at 5PM somehow, and it's still 40° at 6:30. The high's usually a lot earlier than that; a warmer air mass must've moved in this afternoon or something. Odd. Hopefully this isn't an omen for tomorrow...
Quoting 73. Sfloridacat5:

Well the blog made it through 57 comments without changing back into the same exact discussions we see every day in every blog. For some weird reason, I thought this blog wouldn't end up like every other blog.

It was great while it lasted.
Well, I'm certain that if some complain loud enough and long enough, the majority here, the ones who insist on "changing back into the same exact discussions we see every day in every blog", will bow to the will of the minority and immediately cease talking about that which interests and disturbs us far more than almost anything else (that is, the imminent destruction of civilization as we know it, and the politicians driving us there) to instead chat about that which interests the minority. Maybe?
Quoting 85. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I seen a robin today
up against the building picking at some seed and peanuts shells
peeps got put out for the squirrels
she was weak I walk right up to her never even flew away
ground is rock hard no bugs out for her
if the storm don't kill her tonight or tomorrow
starvation will I will find her likely
in a snow bank somewhere on the property
sad they came north too early


You could go to the pet store and buy some meal worms, or the bait shop for real ones.
Quoting 84. Astrometeor:



I don't think they're going to bother fixing it with the new blog format just two weeks away.

About that, what is that?
Quoting 87. wilsonbiggs:



Philly still has a decent layer of snow on grass/dirt, but I can't vouch for anywhere else in southern PA.



Temperature overperformed here too - the temperature reached a high of 41° at 5PM somehow, and it's still 40° at 6:30. The high's usually a lot earlier than that; a warmer air mass must've moved in this afternoon or something. Odd. Hopefully this isn't an omen for tomorrow...

Oh it is :D Warm weather before a storm, means that storm is bad! #WINTERSTORMSTELLA!
Quoting 90. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


About that, what is that?


WU feature and product updates
← General
As you know, over the years Weather Underground has provided a wide variety of weather-related services and features across our web and mobile properties. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve you in this capacity. As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support certain products and features.

As of April 3rd, all the features listed below will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.
Member blogs
WUMail
SMS alerts

Features and products that have recently been removed include:
NOAA Weather Radio
Aviation
We know you’ll likely have questions, so we’ve created FAQ pages to address your concerns, which are accessible via the links provided. We sincerely appreciate your understanding and continued support throughout this transition.
As part of this transition, Category 6 will get a new look. On April 3, 2017 all posts by Jeff Masters, Bob Henson and WU featured bloggers will move to Category 6 – meaning all our articles will be accessible in one place. Be sure to check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved format. If you would like to help shape the future of WU products, please provide your feedback in this quick survey. 

WunderBlog product update - FAQ
← Blogs
Q: What will happen on April 3?
A: On April 3, 2017, we will remove the ability for members to create new WunderBlogs. As part of this transition, Category 6 featured blogs will change to a new format which includes a more polished look and robust commenting system. Check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved version of Category 6.

Q: Will I be able to create my own blog entries after April 3?
A: As of April 3, 2017, the ability to create a new WunderBlog will be removed; however, you will still be able to search (via username) for all previously uploaded blogs.

Q: What will happen to my previous blog posts?
A; We will archive all WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3.

Q: Can I still view previous blog posts and comments?
A: Yes! All WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3 will be viewable; however, blog comments will not be displayed.

Q: Will I be able to comment on new blogs?
A: Absolutely, you can engage in scientific discussion on the new and improved Category 6 articles.
Interestingly enough, two days ago Accuweather and TWC had the exact opposite numbers. This is for my location in Camp Hill, PA to the best I can determine since some other people *cough Accu* *cough TWC* (sorry I had to clear my throat) have hard to navigate weather pages.

TWC: 16-24"

WU: 18-24"

Accu: 8-16"

NWS: 14/18/27" (at least this much/most likely/maximum)
Quoting 92. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



WU feature and product updates
← General
As you know, over the years Weather Underground has provided a wide variety of weather-related services and features across our web and mobile properties. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve you in this capacity. As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support certain products and features.

As of April 3rd, all the features listed below will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.
Member blogs
WUMail
SMS alerts

Features and products that have recently been removed include:
NOAA Weather Radio
Aviation
We know you’ll likely have questions, so we’ve created FAQ pages to address your concerns, which are accessible via the links provided. We sincerely appreciate your understanding and continued support throughout this transition.
As part of this transition, Category 6 will get a new look. On April 3, 2017 all posts by Jeff Masters, Bob Henson and WU featured bloggers will move to Category 6 – meaning all our articles will be accessible in one place. Be sure to check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved format. If you would like to help shape the future of WU products, please provide your feedback in this quick survey. 

WunderBlog product update - FAQ
← Blogs
Q: What will happen on April 3?
A: On April 3, 2017, we will remove the ability for members to create new WunderBlogs. As part of this transition, Category 6 featured blogs will change to a new format which includes a more polished look and robust commenting system. Check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved version of Category 6.

Q: Will I be able to create my own blog entries after April 3?
A: As of April 3, 2017, the ability to create a new WunderBlog will be removed; however, you will still be able to search (via username) for all previously uploaded blogs.

Q: What will happen to my previous blog posts?
A; We will archive all WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3.

Q: Can I still view previous blog posts and comments?
A: Yes! All WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3 will be viewable; however, blog comments will not be displayed.

Q: Will I be able to comment on new blogs?
A: Absolutely, you can engage in scientific discussion on the new and improved Category 6 articles.

Im not sure if im sad or happy now.
Quoting 89. SunnyDaysFla:



You could go to the pet store and buy some meal worms, or the bait shop for real ones.
I cannot interfere with natures plans
From Motherboard:

The World Wasted Trillions of Dollars on Fossil Fuels Because of Bad Math



The global measurement of fossil fuel subsidies is most likely wrong.

Government subsidies for fossil fuels over the last three decades have been far larger than anyone previously thought, according to a new study published by the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy in March.

[...]

They have been so high across the world, finds Dr. Radek Stefanski—an economist at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland— that they are nearly four and a half times higher than previously believed.

So what's the damage? It's pretty colossal. For the last year in his model, 2010, Stefanski found that the total global direct and indirect financial costs of all fossil fuel subsidies was $1.82 trillion, or 3.8 percent of global GDP. He also found that the subsidies meant much higher carbon emissions released into our atmosphere.

Compare that to the International Energy Agency (IEA) figure for the same year. In its 2011 World Energy Outlook, the IEA calculated total worldwide fossil fuel subsidies for 2010 to be $409 billion, less than a quarter of Stefanski's figure of nearly two trillion dollars.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Well, it's certainly not lacking in moisture.
Quoting 94. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Im not sure if im sad or happy now.


A site has been set up on DISQUS already (thanks to water puppy - aquak9.) But I have already forgotten my logon and password (sigh) and therefore cannot link you to the site.

In regards to this site/blog, things should remain the same pretty much - except you would need to register with DISQUS to comment.

We are kinda torn over it, ourselves.
City of Toronto
Total snowfall amounts of 10 to locally 20 cm are expected by Tuesday night. Poor travel conditions in snow and local blowing snow becoming more widespread by Tuesday.

Periods of snow spread into most areas today and will continue through Tuesday. The snow will begin in areas to the northeast of Toronto tonight.

Northeast winds gusting to 50 km/h are expected to develop later this evening and shift to gusty northerly winds Tuesday resulting in localized blowing snow. Poor travel conditions are expected.

With temperatures forecast to be near minus 10 tonight and Tuesday, even some salted surfaces may be slippery. Furthermore, wind chill values near minus 20 are expected.

Snow will taper to scattered flurries early Wednesday as the low pressure system moves away.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm
Quoting 97. wxgeek723:

Well, it's certainly not lacking in moisture.
Are you on break Trent?
Quoting 58. RobertWC:

%u201CThis is a conclusion based on the comprehensive assessment of scientific evidence. It is based on multiple independent lines of evidence that have been affirmed by thousands of independent scientists and numerous scientific institutions around the world. We are not familiar with any scientific institution with relevant subject matter expertise that has reached a different conclusion.%u201D


But, but, but......
Some semi-literate person can just have a belief based on absolutely zero physical evidence and bring their very little thoughts to the table and think they deserve equal consideration.

so there!
Quoting 52. daddyjames:

Since the topic is winter weather and many of us have not really experienced any winter weather up until now (this winter) I guess there is not much to say. :D


What is Winter???
Stella isn't a great name for a winter storm. I like 'Madness' much better. So we would be able to say "Will winter storm Madness 'March' on Washington?" :)
they must be holding some giant global warming summit some where in the north east. it never fails
Quoting 100. BaltimoreBrian:

Are you on break Trent?


Indeed, with the house to myself. My folks are in St. Martin this week.
Quoting 102. PedleyCA:



What is Winter???


A seemingly endless state of misery where everything around you dies and the air hurts your face for several months. Or at least it should. Tracking snowstorms is fun, though.
Quoting 102. PedleyCA:



What is Winter???


Apparently, it now only occurs just before Spring is to arrive.
Quoting 105. wxgeek723:



Indeed, with the house to myself. My folks are in St. Martin this week.


PAARTY at wxgeek's!!!!!
Quoting 105. wxgeek723:

Indeed, with the house to myself. My folks are in St. Martin this week.
Oh fun! I hope you enjoy your unsupervised time :) St. Martin would be fun too--I prefer the French side. I bet you get more snow than me out of this.
Snowstorm drinking tips for Trent: Best choice is Scotch. Second is bourbon. Rum is third.
Quoting 108. daddyjames:



PAARTY at wxgeek's!!!!!


BYOB. But if you're looking for a snow party, head west. I'm on the coastal plain. :(
Quoting 111. wxgeek723:

BYOB. But if you're looking for a snow party, head west. I'm on the coastal plain. :(
But you're inland, not right on the coast, so you'll get some snow.
Quoting 111. wxgeek723:



BYOB. But if you're looking for a snow party, head west. I'm on the coastal plain. :(


Whoo hoo! You betcha. I am a SFL boy (in OK right now), snow is not a plus. ;)
Quoting 110. BaltimoreBrian:

Snowstorm drinking tips for Trent: Best choice is Scotch. Second is bourbon. Rum is third.


i thought vodka would be first, given it propensity in the colder regions of the world.
Quoting 36. HBO1:

"From Washington, DC to Boston". Is there some kind of wall in Boston? Glad to hear we're not going to get any snow up here in Maine. /s


No one in the rest of the country thinks of Maine; I've seen it myself when I lived there. You'd turn on the evening news (which, those were antenna days, and the TV station was 60 miles on, and much of the time the ionosphere would be rolling, so that you'd get a few seconds from Boston, and then a blurp from Tennesee would follow several seconds of complete static and so on) and if you could get it, they'd be talking about the clean up from the 'big storm', maybe 12", and thanks god it was over, and we'd still be getting buried in a blizzard. That's the way it is for Maine.... sort like having a last name like Zyxstein .... you have to go through life last in line in an alphabetical world.
Now I see why wxgeek's folks left him home alone ;)



This house in upstate New York is completely encased in ice
Jim Cantore‏:
@JimCantore

Based on love for big snow, we're shifting west of Boston. Our friends @SamuelAdamsBeer wanted to make sure we'd make it through the storm.



gfs 18 z hr 48 wed 18z ground level totals cm

Quoting 112. BaltimoreBrian:

But you're inland, not right on the coast, so you'll get some snow.


Definitely, but these westward trends have me questioning the high numbers currently posted for my area. I think mixing will be a bigger issue than originally thought along 95.

Quoting 113. daddyjames:



Whoo hoo! You betcha. I am a SFL boy (in OK right now), snow is not a plus. ;)


Now that must've been a real shock. Oklahoma is one of the most extreme places on the earth.
Quoting 116. daddyjames:

Now I see why wxgeek's folks left him home alone ;)



This house in upstate New York is completely encased in ice


Is this Winter???
A super bloom is underway in California -



PHOTOS | Super Bloom at Anza Borrego
Quoting 84. Astrometeor:



I don't think they're going to bother fixing it with the new blog format just two weeks away.

In two weeks many things can happen.
Trent, you should have headed our way. We're walking to the Rusty Scupper for dinner after I finish blogging, and hopefully walk back home in the snow. We're having dessert too.
Quoting 121. RobertWC:

A super bloom is underway in California -



PHOTOS | Super Bloom at Anza Borrego

water the giver of life
Quoting 114. daddyjames:

I thought vodka would be first, given it propensity in the colder regions of the world.
I like darker liquors. And I prefer rum to vodka, just my taste :)
Quoting 119. wxgeek723:



Definitely, but these westward trends have me questioning the high numbers currently posted for my area. I think mixing will be a bigger issue than originally thought along 95.



Now that must've been a real shock. Oklahoma is one of the most extreme places on the earth.


Yeah. Within two years of moving here I experienced my first tornado (EF0 - a block away from where I was living at the time) lifted up and passed right over where I worked (no, I cannot take credit for this photo - I was hiding with the little one): (Addendum: because before it reached town, it was reported as a possible EF2/EF3 tornado).



Experienced two of the worst blizzard's to ever hit the state, one Christmas Eve 2009 and the other on the first day of Spring, 2010.

Hail the size of softballs - thankfully I decided to wait out the storm at home and be late for work, otherwise I would have driven into the worst hit area.
Heat that only should be experienced if you stick your head in an oven.
Oh, and chipping a 0.25" layer of ice off the car.
It's been fun. Definitely different then SoFL.
Quoting 61. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Yeah it is not January or February. My place had highs in the mid seventies in February. Yesterday it was 20 degrees. I live in New Jersey. Now tell me what month it really is.

My place was struck by lightning yesterday, I was expecting snow. Today is alright.
Quoting 125. BaltimoreBrian:

I like darker liquors. And I prefer rum to vodka, just my taste :)


I like gin. There is something in rum that kicks my butt and takes no prisoners.
Quoting 128. Uragani:


My place was struck by lightning yesterday, I was expecting snow. Today is alright.


Did your tv turn all funky colors? Had that happen to me once - melted the cord to the fridge, and my (old pre-HD tv) was three bands of color for a month afterwards.
Quoting 120. PedleyCA:



Is this Winter???


A version of it.

Toasty here for a few more days... 5 days over 80 so far...89.5F right now
Quoting 118. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

gfs 18 z hr 48 wed 18z ground level totals cm



Can you check for NJ?
134. redux
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

Trent, you should have headed our way. We're walking to the Rusty Scupper for dinner after I finish blogging, and hopefully walk back home in the snow. We're having dessert too.


tasty. love the view at RS. is it even supposed to snow before midnight?
Quoting 132. PedleyCA:


Toasty here for a few more days... 5 days over 80 so far...89.5F right now

Must be hot right now! It seems late week though, but cold next week.
Quoting 128. Uragani:


My place was struck by lightning yesterday, I was expecting snow. Today is alright.

Its funny how you sound so calm.
Quoting 132. PedleyCA:


Toasty here for a few more days...

Those are NOT winter temp's. Haven't you been paying attention?
“Climate Change in Your Face” — Great Barrier Reef Suffers Second Consecutive Mass Bleaching as Potential for Record Warm 2017 Looms


On March 2nd, 2017, the Great Barrier Reef was already starting to show signs of bleaching. After suffering a worst-ever coral bleaching event in 2016, concerns were high that warmer waters could again strike the reef — spurring a second consecutive mass die-off. Even worse, some scientists were concerned that 2017’s bleaching could exceed the intensity of the record 2016 event.

Now it appears that just such a catastrophe is underway. And scientists expect about 2/3 of the world’s largest reef to experience bleaching over the next couple of months.


Link
Mid 60's and sunny here in Truckee the last couple days. I have been sitting on my deck in shorts each afternoon, trying to add some color to these skinny legs before donning my cycling shorts someday. Don't want the blinding white fleshtone to cause any car wrecks.
Quoting 139. oldnewmex:

Mid 60's and sunny here in Truckee the last couple days. I have been sitting on my deck in shorts each afternoon, trying to add some color to these skinny legs before donning my cycling shorts someday. Don't want the blinding white fleshtone to cause any car wrecks.

Yeah and I am waiting for the "Great Blizzard of 2017".
Quoting 134. redux:

tasty. love the view at RS. is it even supposed to snow before midnight?
It is supposed to but we'll see. We're eating late.
Horace-Bénédict de Saussure (1740-1799) invented the cyanometer in 1789 just to measure the blueness of the sky. He also improved the anemometer and invented the hair hygrometer in 1783.

Quoting 140. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Yeah and I am waiting for the "Great Blizzard of 2017".

You'll survive. I know I did; 3 feet of snow remains in my backyard. Friends elsewhere in town have 6-8 feet.
Just Room Enough Island in the St. Lawrence River. Owned by the Sizeland family. Really.

Quoting 143. oldnewmex:


You'll survive. I know I did; 3 feet of snow remains in my backyard. Friends elsewhere in town have 6-8 feet.

LOL yeah, but i will deal with wind too! But my snowblower broke down. And no one has parts :(
Rex Tillerson Allegedly Used An Alias Email To Discuss Climate Change While At Exxon

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson used a second alias email address to discuss climate change while he was chairman and CEO of ExxonMobile, according to a letter filed in court Monday by the New York Attorney General’s Office.
New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman alleges that from “at least 2008 to 2015” Tillerson, whose middle name is Wayne, used the “Wayne Tracker” pseudonym email “to send and receive materials regarding important matters, including those concerning to the risk-management issues related to climate change.”
Schneiderman is investigating whether ExxonMobile made “significant misrepresentations” about the risks posed by climate change to its shareholders.
“Despite the company’s incidental production of approximately 60 documents bearing the ‘Wayne Tracker’ email address, neither Exxon nor its counsel have ever disclosed that this separate email account was a vehicle for Mr. Tillerson’s relevant communications at Exxon,” the letter, which was filed in New York Supreme Court as part of a fraud investigation into the company, states.


Link
TORNADO WARNING- Sarasota County, FL
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
808 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Sarasota County in west central Florida...

* Until 900 PM EDT

* At 808 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 15 miles southwest of Gulf Gate Estates, or 18 miles
southwest of Sarasota, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Gulf Gate Estates and South Gate Ridge around 835 PM EDT.
Lake Sarasota around 840 PM EDT.
Myakka River State Park around 850 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Osprey, Gator Creek Estate, Hidden River, Vamo, Nokomis, Fruitville,
Laurel, Turtle Beach, Oscar Scherer State Park and Bee Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2738 8241 2738 8225 2712 8226 2705 8251
2727 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 251DEG 32KT 2712 8272

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Noah
Monday Night 03/13 100% / 5-8 in
Snow. Winds will increase late. Low 27F. ENE winds at 5 to 10 mph, increasing to 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow 100%. 5 to 8 inches of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Tuesday 03/14 100% / 12+ in
Windy with snow, heavy at times. High 31F. Winds N at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow 100%. Snow accumulation of a foot or more. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph.

Blizzard Warning
Issued: 4:16 PM EDT Mar. 13, 2017 – National Weather Service

... Blizzard Warning remains in effect from midnight tonight to
midnight EDT Tuesday night...

* locations... northeastern New Jersey, Rockland and Westchester
New York, southwest Connecticut and interior southeast
Connecticut, New York City, and western Long Island.

* Hazard types... heavy snow and blizzard conditions. Some freezing
drizzle late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

* Snow accumulations... 12 to 24 inches.

* Ice accumulations... a few hundredths of an inch or less.

* Snowfall rates... 2 inches to locally 3 inches per hour from
very early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

* Timing... late tonight through Tuesday evening.

* Impacts... dangerous travel due to whiteout conditions at
times. Several roads may become impassable. Power outages
possible.

* Winds... northeast 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* Temperatures... in the upper 20s.

* Visibilities... one quarter mile or less at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds
and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If
you must travel... have a winter survival kit with you. If you get
stranded... stay with your vehicle.
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

Trent, you should have headed our way. We're walking to the Rusty Scupper for dinner after I finish blogging, and hopefully walk back home in the snow. We're having dessert too.

If I saw Bouillabaisse on the menu, that is all I would need to see. Well, that and and the Fuji Apple Bread Pudding. You're killing me here, Brian.
Quoting 123. BaltimoreBrian:

Trent, you should have headed our way. We're walking to the Rusty Scupper for dinner after I finish blogging, and hopefully walk back home in the snow. We're having dessert too.
Love their steaks!
Quoting 149. oldnewmex:


If I saw Bouillabaisse on the menu, that is all I would need to see. Well, that and and the Fuji Apple Bread Pudding. You're killing me here, Brian.


I had to search that to see what it was(Bouillabaisse)...
Tornado Warning for...
northwestern Sarasota County in west central Florida...
Quoting 149. oldnewmex:


If I saw Bouillabaisse on the menu, that is all I would need to see. Well, that and and the Fuji Apple Bread Pudding. You're killing me here, Brian.


Yeah, my mouth is watering over the Blackened Diver Sea Scallops. Sigh, I do miss good seafood.
Quoting 147. WU_344942:

TORNADO WARNING- Sarasota County, FL
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
808 PM EDT MON MAR 13 2017

The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northwestern Sarasota County in west central Florida...

* Until 900 PM EDT

*
Noah



Bet'ch people sit up and notice when he issues flood warnings.

Note: Not to diminish the Tornado Warning that is on-going. Please take it seriously and take any and all precautions necessary.
The weather.com site says the following.

The storm is fast-moving and high impact, and will be in full swing by 5 AM Tuesday morning.

First flakes are anticipated to begin falling in the New York City at around 10-11 PM tonight. The snowfall rate will pick up between 2 and 3 AM, and this increase will mostly affect non-city areas.

Heavy snowfall is anticipated around most of Eastern New Jersey and Pennsylvania. New York City and other areas west of I-95 should anticipate heavy snowfall as well, and up to a foot of snow is forecasted for NYC. Southern New York and Northern New Jersey are expected to receive 104 inches of snow per hour through early afternoon on Tuesday. The snow will fall quickly, and the system will move fast as well.

Find the mistake :D
Quoting 155. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

The weather.com site says the following.

The storm is fast-moving and high impact, and will be in full swing by 5 AM Tuesday morning.

First flakes are anticipated to begin falling in the New York City at around 10-11 PM tonight. The snowfall rate will pick up between 2 and 3 AM, and this increase will mostly affect non-city areas.

Heavy snowfall is anticipated around most of Eastern New Jersey and Pennsylvania. New York City and other areas west of I-95 should anticipate heavy snowfall as well, and up to a foot of snow is forecasted for NYC. Southern New York and Northern New Jersey are expected to receive 104 inches of snow per hour through early afternoon on Tuesday. The snow will fall quickly, and the system will move fast as well.

Find the mistake :D

I wish I could receive 104 inches per hour. :)
Quoting 155. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

The weather.com site says the following.

The storm is fast-moving and high impact, and will be in full swing by 5 AM Tuesday morning.

First flakes are anticipated to begin falling in the New York City at around 10-11 PM tonight. The snowfall rate will pick up between 2 and 3 AM, and this increase will mostly affect non-city areas.

Heavy snowfall is anticipated around most of Eastern New Jersey and Pennsylvania. New York City and other areas west of I-95 should anticipate heavy snowfall as well, and up to a foot of snow is forecasted for NYC. Southern New York and Northern New Jersey are expected to receive 104 inches of snow per hour through early afternoon on Tuesday. The snow will fall quickly, and the system will move fast as well.

Find the mistake :D


Um 104 inches per hour? I believe they are missing a decimal point there.
Quoting 157. daddyjames:



Um 104 inches per hour? I believe they are missing a decimal point there.

LOL yeah!
Quoting 157. daddyjames:



Um 104 inches per hour? I believe they are missing a decimal point there.


Even with the decimal point, that would be an interesting rate. 1.04" of snow per hour. Well, look who's getting all precise with their measurements!
Quoting 159. Astrometeor:



Even with the decimal point, that would be an interesting rate. 1.04" of snow per hour. Well, look who's getting all precise with their measurements!

LOL - it's all about snowflake orientation!
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



Did your tv turn all funky colors? Had that happen to me once - melted the cord to the fridge, and my (old pre-HD tv) was three bands of color for a month afterwards.

I meant 'there were lightning strikes and of course thunder in Tirana'. Funny that you brought up the TV, can't turn it on. Oh, it's the batteries of the remote control.
Quoting 159. Astrometeor:



Even with the decimal point, that would be an interesting rate. 1.04" of snow per hour. Well, look who's getting all precise with their measurements!


Those computer algomarythms are pretty impressive - They don't call it "Deep Thunder" for nothing!
I wonder if the computer has its own theme song? Thunder Road? Thunder Rolls? Thunder Underground? Would that make it Thunderground?
Maryland Science Center webcam at Baltimore Inner Harbor. Hope this updates.

Snow has begun. Time to walk to our supper :)

Perhaps it will have the ferocity of a jaguar. Stella is the female jaguar at the Milwaukee Zoo.
104 inches per hour ............

When I was drilling on the Wasatch , I can remember snow storms where it looked like a giant bag of cotton balls mixed with goose down were being dumped . Always with very little wind, big as 50 cent piece, very complex shapes . I had spent 10 years in Colorado , I had never seen anything like that powder .

I wonder if that Utah powder still exists ?
Quoting 165. Parshall:

Perhaps it will have the ferocity of a jaguar. Stella is the female jaguar at the Milwaukee Zoo.


I went for Brando in "Street Car" ..............

3D-Printed Reefs Offer Hope in Coral Bleaching Crisis

But—and here’s the hope—fake reefs may be less vulnerable to climate change and more durable in the changing ocean chemistry than natural reefs. Scientists are using 3D-printing technology that enables them to create fake reefs mimicking the texture and architectural structure of natural reefs in ways that haven’t been achieved in prior restoration efforts.

Experimental installations of these 3D-printed reefs are now going on in the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the Persian Gulf, and Australia. If they succeed in the coming years in luring not only fish but also baby coral polyps, which attach themselves to structures and multiply, they can grow into new reefs and reestablish some of the most important habitats on Earth.


Link
#161 Uragani:
I have been meaning to say Miredita.
Worked in Tirana for a short time in '95.
Good memories!
Eastern Australia hit by drought and floods

Australia can be a country of great extremes, and this is certainly proving to be the case in terms of the weather at the moment.

Parts of Queensland are in drought. Meanwhile, New South Wales is being pummelled by violent storms.

Elsewhere, there's a heatwave in Victoria. Temperatures in the state capital, Melbourne, are currently running around 6 degrees above average, with highs nudging above 30 Celsius.

Parts of Queensland have just experienced their driest ever 12 months on record. That has left 87 percent of the Sunshine State officially drought-stricken.

There are concerns that conditions could get even worse in the short term. Queensland's Agricultural Minister, Bill Byrne, said this means that producers in the affected regions are now eligible for drought assistance, including relief from water and electricity costs.


Link

Can someone please remind me what this white substance on the ground outside is? Thanks.
Quoting 170. Grothar:




Holy, snow.

Might get a little bumpy overnight ec fl. Looks like the storms may renergize on approach to the moist east coast, spc has adjusted the risk accordingly
All eyes are NOT on the East Coast. This storm is still getting worse here in Chicago, perhaps linked to that dramatic "meso-low" over Lake Michigan on Sunday. It snowed lightly all night Sunday night, leaving 3" on the ground. But now it's snowing again, harder, with another 5"+ expected by Tuesday evening in areas close to Lake Michigan. Mostly lake-effect. So don't expect to bypass closed East Coast airports by flying through O'Hare or Midway on Tuesday - they could be loused up as well.
Quoting 172. washingtonian115:

Can someone please remind me what this white substance on the ground outside is? Thanks.
its something they call snow rain that has frozen into a icy power and when the wind comes then its called blowing snow
rt28@frying pan road

For years I have thought we would see these ever stronger highs very slowing drifting along. And these ever deepening lows racing around them , as the system gains more and more energy. And that the lines between them would become ever sharper. The desert Southwest will be in the 90's this week, late May numbers for them . That'll make short work of that super bloom.

The "murder of winter" , and the birth of the "super summer" .


white house area from the microwave camera.
Quoting 173. ProgressivePulse:



Holy, snow.

Might get a little bumpy overnight ec fl. Looks like the storms may renergize on approach to the moist east coast, spc has adjusted the risk accordingly


This looks like one for the books. One of our nieces on Long Island said they are not hyping the storm, but really taking is more serious than other storms. It looks like real concern for power outages through the entire region.
Times Square Live webcam.


Link
Ok, what are the air temps in Chi-town , NYC, and DC ? Let me guess , no where near their record lows .

Big snows come just below the freezing point . I say this for when our pack of Keyser Sze's usual suspects show up.

Quoting 169. ycd0108:

#161 Uragani:
I have been meaning to say Miredita.
Worked in Tirana for a short time in '95.
Good memories!

U should have said Mirembrema; that reminds me to go to bed. It's 4:30 in the morning here, not exactly now.
188. redux
00 GFS model goes pretty aggressive on snowfall totals for baltimore.

i went out for a drink about an hour ago. it wasn't sticking to anything other than grass and certain brick pavers.

on the way back it just started to stick to other things.

will there be work tomorrow? time will tell.
March and April have always been big months in world history , mainly because armies can once again begin to move in the field. The roads dry out, and the cannon don't get stuck in the mud up to their axles.

So here's one from 1933 -

The Enabling Act (German: Ermächtigungsgesetz) was a 1933 Weimar Constitution amendment that gave the German Cabinet – in effect, Chancellor Adolf Hitler – the power to enact laws without the involvement of the Reichstag. It passed in both the Reichstag and Reichsrat on 24 March 1933, and was signed by President Paul von Hindenburg later that day. The act stated that it was to last four years unless renewed by the Reichstag, which occurred twice. The Enabling Act gave Hitler plenary powers. It followed on the heels of the Reichstag Fire Decree, which abolished most civil liberties and transferred state powers to the Reich government. The combined effect of the two laws was to transform Hitler's government into a legal dictatorship.

Link

The Reichstag Fire Decree (German: Reichstagsbrandverordnung) is the common name of the Decree of the Reich President for the Protection of People and State (German: Verordnung des Reichspräsidenten zum Schutz von Volk und Staat) issued by German President Paul von Hindenburg on the advice of Chancellor Adolf Hitler in direct response to the Reichstag fire of 27 February 1933. The decree nullified many of the key civil liberties of German citizens. With Nazis in powerful positions in the German government, the decree was used as the legal basis for the imprisonment of anyone considered to be opponents of the Nazis, and to suppress publications not considered "friendly" to the Nazi cause. The decree is considered by historians to be one of the key steps in the establishment of a one-party Nazi state in Germany.

Link
Quoting 188. redux:

00 GFS model goes pretty aggressive on snowfall totals for baltimore.

i went out for a drink about an hour ago. it wasn't sticking to anything other than grass and certain brick pavers.

on the way back it just started to stick to other things.

will there be work tomorrow? time will tell.
I already put in for a day off.Even if we have another 3/6/13....
all clear at the TT in new York for now

Baltimore

Comments #189 & # 190 -

Those who forget the past, are doomed to repeat it.
philadelphia

198. redux
Quoting 194. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Baltimore




Madison is one of the main east west arteries. goes right by Johns Hopkins Hospital. I take that road home.

its astonishing to me that the road looks like that already. 695 looks gross as well. my chances of going to work tomorrow are on life support.
Quoting 197. Grothar:


make sure nothing around to blow away bring in the dog go get the cat don't forget to put the milk bottles in between the door and the money in a plastic bag so it don't get wet
Quoting 142. BaltimoreBrian:

Horace-Bénédict de Saussure (1740-1799) invented the cyanometer in 1789 just to measure the blueness of the sky. He also improved the anemometer and invented the hair hygrometer in 1783.




I want one of these, but Google won't tell me where to buy one. I found someplace telling how to make o9ne, but that wouldn't do any good because I couldn't discuss the reading with anyone else without the same meter. Odd that no one has found it useful to make something like this. While shopping I found an Android App, "skymeter" that analyzed the sky color in terms of R,B,G. My sky is dark currently, I'll check it out tomorrow. Not sure it would be any better than one of the color measuring apps I already have.
Washington nw

Quoting 197. Grothar:




I hope that you did not put away that afternoon umbrella yet. I guess that moving the party indoors works too.
Bethesda north of Washington

I watch the tick tock here, it is the coin of the realm . The coral reefs are dying , but "Hey, what's the road conditions on the I-95?"

I will not be snowed in , no fire may eat my house , but we will be at 85F in 3 days. Over 20 degrees above average.

The Super Summers are coming. Fall eats Winter . Spring eats Winter. Summer eats them all.
Snowing nice and steadily in central PA at the moment. Actually really beautiful to watch, no wind. Snow covered roads as well.
It looks like you are close to some lightning strikes as well, Grothar.

Link
first victim broken down car

Quoting 199. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

make sure nothing around to blow away bring in the dog go get the cat don't forget to put the milk bottles in between the door and the money in a plastic bag so it don't get wet


All taken care of.







Quoting 209. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

It looks like you are close to some lightning strikes as well, Grothar.

Link



We're just a little bit north of those on the east coast. You can see them in the distance, so it won't be long.
Quoting 212. Grothar:



We're just a little bit north of those on the east coast. You can see them in the distance, so it won't be long.


You should probably take off that party hat now. ;)
Quoting 205. Astrometeor:

Snowing nice and steadily in central PA at the moment. Actually really beautiful to watch, no wind. Snow covered roads as well.


Astro. Here's a link you might use

Link
The Super Summers are coming. Fall eats Winter . Spring eats Winter. Summer eats them all.

The Murder of Winter

The Super Summers eat at Spring and Fall. They are weak sisters of our yearly trial.

Winter doesn't have a snow balls chance in Hell.


The Super Summers are coming.
Quoting 211. Grothar:



All taken care of.


now if you want
put that plastic bag of money in a box and fed x it to me
at 3 glamorgan ave Toronto Ontario for safe keeping
don't count I will do that for you once it gets here

j/k
Quoting 213. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You should probably take off that party hat now. ;)



Gro's human HARRP program. And his cat was clearly cat gang affiliated with his little rain hat giving him away with it tilted the way it was. Kitty's bringing in some good money. Gro's had a lotta years to perfect these kinds of ventures. Looks good in the pic. Hasn't aged in a long time. Nothing weird about that at all.
very light snow up here in east Toronto now

Quoting 219. Grothar:

gonna be a monster snow for some
I'm giving 40/60 odds; this storm makes it to the high Arctic. It should be named "The Jennifer Francis Express"
I hope this is it for the winter snow but Easter is late this year almost mid April when ever Easter is late winter kinda likes too hang on till then
Is that you Jennifer? Rutgers? She's impressive that's for sure.
Issuing Office: Miami
Source: National.Weather.Service

1:01am EDT, Tue Mar 14

... SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 45 TO 55 MPH WINDS FOR MIAMI-DADE AND EASTERN BROWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM EDT... * AT 1259 AM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR EAST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO NEAR PA-HAY-OKEE OVERLOOK... AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN METRO AREA OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES BY 115 AM. * THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES, AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MIAMI, HIALEAH, FORT LAUDERDALE, PEMBROKE PINES, HOLLYWOOD, MIRAMAR, CORAL SPRINGS, POMPANO BEACH, DAVIE, MIAMI BEACH, PLANTATION, SUNRISE, HOMESTEAD, TAMARAC, MARGATE, CORAL GABLES, KEY BISCAYNE, SOUTH MIAMI, SURFSIDE AND HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF FUNNEL CLOUDS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. &&
Miami, FL (KAMX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



got a feelin it may rain gro
put the money in two bags with a large rock inside so it don't blow away
Quoting 38. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Is the Kuchera ratio to be trusted? It seems like projected snow totals are a bit higher for this storm when Kuchera snow ratios are used, and I'm not sure how much weight to put in that.
Miami area
Quoting 227. wilsonbiggs:



Is the Kuchera ratio to be trusted? It seems like projected snow totals are a bit higher for this storm when Kuchera snow ratios are used, and I'm not sure how much weight to put in that.
I think its like a maximum potential not actual these maps are for guidance really and we wont know what is to happen and who gets what till its done
Tornado Warning for Broward County, Florida

Issuing Office: Miami
Source: National.Weather.Service

1:27am EDT, Tue Mar 14

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... * UNTIL 200 AM EDT * AT 126 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PLANTATION, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD... TORNADO. SOURCE... RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT... FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... FORT LAUDERDALE, MELROSE PARK AND BROADVIEW PARK AROUND 130 AM EDT. LAUDERHILL, NORTH LAUDERDALE, LAUDERDALE LAKES, GOLDEN HEIGHTS, ST. GEORGE, WASHINGTON PARK, FRANKLIN PARK, VILLAGE PARK, PALM AIRE AND BROADVIEW-POMPANO PARK AROUND 135 AM EDT. MARGATE, OAKLAND PARK, WILTON MANORS, LAZY LAKE AND TWIN LAKES AROUND 140 AM EDT. LAUDERDALE-BY-THE-SEA AND SEA RANCH LAKES AROUND 145 AM EDT. POMPANO BEACH, LIGHTHOUSE POINT AND HILLSBORO BEACH AROUND 150 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE FORT LAUDERDALE BEACH, BROWARD ESTATES, POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT, BOULEVARD GARDENS, WEST KEN-LARK, NORTH ANDREWS GARDENS, ROOSEVELT GARDENS, TERRA MAR AND RIVERLAND VILLAGE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TORNADOES ARE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! && TORNADO... RADAR INDICATED HAIL... <.75IN
Quoting 214. Grothar:



Astro. Here's a link you might use

Link


Gives me 17". Not too shabby. Thanks for the link Gro.
Ready for whatever comes!
Gonna take a guess and say 4" of snow sitting on the trashcan outside. Plows have been going around, seen two of them tonight.
Going to bed, shall be up real early. Wind has picked up a little, still nothing too blustery.

Earlier today I got a text message from my school saying that school would be closed tomorrow...

1. I am on spring break.

2. This is the only time they've ever sent out a timely message...and it's when no one cares.


Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017

Areas affected...Northern portions of VA/MD...eastern PA...northern
NJ...southern NY into southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 140722Z - 141215Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly heavy snow will develop north/northeastward
through the early/mid morning hours. Snow rates in excess of 1-2
in/hr will become increasingly common, with some embedded higher
rates likely, especially toward sunrise and beyond across
eastern/south-central PA, northern NJ, and much of southern NY and
nearby CT/MA.

DISCUSSION...A gradual phasing of dual upstream shortwave troughs
will occur today while pronounced upward vertical motion spreads
generally northeastward across the region this morning in concert
with an increasingly coupled upper jet structure and a near-coastal
warm conveyor. Latest surface analysis features around a 1000 mb
surface low near the northeast NC coast as of 07Z (3AM EDT). To the
north, considerable pressure falls of 4-5 mb/2 hours are maximized
roughly along the I-95 corridor and immediate coast of the
mid-Atlantic/Northeast, which is observationally consistent with he
intense cyclogenesis expected over the next 6-12 hours (and beyond)
northward along the coast.

As cyclogenesis continues to occur, observations/short-term guidance
are suggestive that the surface wet-bulb zero line will continue to
slowly transition northward across parts of DE/NJ toward the NYC
metro. This is suggestive of a more transitional/mixed precipitation
type along the I-95 corridor. A longer duration of
heavy-snow-optimal profiles, attributable to increasing lift
coincident with a deep/saturated dendritic layer, are expected just
west/northwest of the I-95 corridor from northern parts of VA and MD
into south-central/eastern PA, northern NJ, much of southern NY, and
eventually nearby CT/MA through 12-15Z.

Lift/saturation aside, consistent with earlier 00Z observed
soundings from Washington-Dulles and Wallops Island VA, various
short-term forecast soundings suggest that very weak elevated
buoyancy will continue to exist along the coast as mid-level lapse
rates continue to steepen over the mid-Atlantic region. In the
presence of increasing mid-level frontogenetical forcing, this is
likely to contribute to increasingly organized/intense bands of snow
and enhanced snowfall rates through the mid-morning hours, including
some possibility for a few localized instances of thundersnow
.

..Guyer.. 03/14/2017
" In the presence of increasing mid-level frontogenetical forcing, . . . "
I thought that had been criminalized in all of the states?

I have to say, it is a bit ominous coming on here and seeing that all of the webcams for that region are not working.

Hope all is safe, warm, and sound.

SCIENCE, NOT SILENCE

The March for Science demonstrates our passion for science and sounds a call to support and safeguard the scientific community. Recent policy changes have caused heightened worry among scientists. The incredible and immediate outpouring of support has made clear that these concerns are also shared by the support of hundreds of thousands of people around the world.

The mischaracterization of science as a partisan issue, which has given policymakers permission to reject overwhelming evidence, is a critical and urgent matter. It is time for people who support scientific research and evidence-based policies to take a public stand and be counted.

ON APRIL 22, 2017, WE WALK OUT OF THE LAB AND INTO THE STREETS.


I am working our walk out. No reason why all of you shouldn't meet up and plan yours. .............................................

MARCH FOR SCIENCE

EARTH DAY
APRIL 22, 2017
Link
The forecast last night when I went to bed was for 12-18".

It is now 18 -26"

Reporting from Near Jim Cantore's Home Town,

VT Storms
Quoting 73. Sfloridacat5:

Well the blog made it through 57 comments without changing back into the same exact discussions we see every day in every blog.


So take note and act, elsewise same accusations (because that is what we do now) until Paradise 2.0 .
Imagining earth as spaceship. No. You don't have to imagine it that way. Someone (and the Sun too) woke me up ringing my alarm clock.
243. elioe
Is it due to the snow, or why are comments full of alcohol... lol. Anyway, I normally don't drink raw vodka or anything else strong. But then once I got a bottle of Ukrainian Khorticya. It went down well.

The upcoming weekend has our traditional cottage weekend. This time, I'm going to go with Leijona Viina vodka, green Pisang Ambon and milk, all mixed together. Forecast lows are only -2 C this time. Last spring, the nighttime temperatures were closer to -20 C. It is a funny feeling, when you are in a jacuzzi full of +37 C water, comfortably warm, while ice accumulates on your hair, beard and eyebrows.

Oh, and I hope, that after most of the snow in Eastern U.S. has been cleared, the pedestrian/bicycle routes don't look like this:



That was yesterday, less than a mile from my place.
Good morning from Germany in brightest sunshine! While watching the nor'easter in the US unfolding which is obviously tracking a bit further west than thought yesterday, here a side glance to the bad weather in southeastern Spain (Alicante where record heat was measured last week). Folks in this area got really hard hit this winter and spring, compromising the vegetables which is growing down there for European markets.

IN PICS: Costa Blanca floods as storms lash Spanish coast
The Local (Spain), March 14, 2017
Riverbeds burst their banks, roads flooded, and rain poured through the roofs of many a structure during Monday night as the southeast of Spain was lashed by storms.
Alicante saw half the average annual rainfall in just one day as the southeast of Spain saw the worst of the storms to hit the peninsula on Monday.
More than 150 litres of water per square metre was recorded in Alicante, a province that sees a typical annual rainfall of 311 litres per square meter.
The torrential rain closed schools across the province and Spain’s weather agency predicted that the stormy weather was set to continue on Tuesday. ...



Tranvia de Alicante inundado - Tram under water in Alicante

Video compilation of the flooding in Alicante/Spain


Easy to spot: the current low over southern Spain.
246. elioe
Quoting 126. BaltimoreBrian:
*** A perfect storm of fire and ice may have led to snowball Earth: Explaining a 'once-in-a-billion-year event'




From the link:

Sulfur dioxide is most effective at blocking solar radiation if it gets past the tropopause, the boundary separating the troposphere and stratosphere. If it reaches this height, it's less likely to be brought back down to earth in precipitation or mixed with other particles, extending its presence in the atmosphere from about a week to about a year. The height of the tropopause barrier all depends on the background climate of the planet -- the cooler the planet, the lower the tropopause.

"In periods of Earth's history when it was very warm, volcanic cooling would not have been very important because Earth would have been shielded by this warm, high tropopause," said Wordsworth. "In cooler conditions, Earth becomes uniquely vulnerable to having these kinds of volcanic perturbations to climate."


That's an effect I've been thinking about much, and it may be hugely important during this century and beyond...

As the climate warms, intensity and duration of any volcanic or nuclear winter should get smaller.
Chicago Area Prepares as Lake Effect Snow Descends

"The Chicago area was preparing Monday night as lake effect snow blanketed some cities and villages throughout the region.

In Chicago, the Department of Streets and Sanitation deployed 287 snow plows to handle the overnight accumulation."


Here in Eastern Montgomery County, PA, it's been a mix of sleet and freezing rain for some time, and we just got our first good wind gust. Good day to stay inside and work from home, thank goodness for VPN.
Major bust with the E Coast storm they cancelled the blizzard warning for new work and downgrade it too a winter weather advisory all so snow fall has been cut down in hafe from 12 too 24" too only 4 too 8" with snow turning too rain by midday and then back too snow be for ending
251. bwi
Even with the models gradually adjusting more and more west, the low is outdoing them, latest analysis was at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.

Only a bit of snow for us in DC -- mostly sleet and some freezing rain. Currently 29 degrees in College Park MD, winds not too bad from the looks -- my PWS frozen solid.

Unfortunately upper level temperatures here in the DC-Baltimore corridor were warm enough to stop the snow and change over to freezing rain. Had some thundersnow for bit, then sleet, then (and now) freezing rain creating a thick lovely coating over everything.

One last obscene gesture by winter I guess. Had it stayed as snow it would have been a healthy accumulation. :P
Quoting 252. Xyrus2000:

Unfortunately upper level temperatures here in the DC-Baltimore corridor were warm enough to stop the snow and change over to freezing rain. Had some thundersnow for bit, then sleet, then (and now) freezing rain creating a thick lovely coating over everything.

One last obscene gesture by winter I guess. Had it stayed as snow it would have been a healthy accumulation. :P


Does that mean it's an unhealthy accumulation? Can you get sick from that?
Good Morning Folks; that low is really moving fast up the Eastern Seaboard.

It was pretty amazing this morning to be outside on the deck at 7:00 am having a cup a coffee and watching the cyclonic circulation over the Florida Big Bend in the lower cloud deck (along with a little wind in the trees), and thinking that this low near north Florida is going to be impacting my Daughter later today in Mass. Now I get work, check the loops, and the low is already off of the Carolinas...........................Amazing:



Quoting 246. elioe:



From the link:

Sulfur dioxide is most effective at blocking solar radiation if it gets past the tropopause, the boundary separating the troposphere and stratosphere. If it reaches this height, it's less likely to be brought back down to earth in precipitation or mixed with other particles, extending its presence in the atmosphere from about a week to about a year. The height of the tropopause barrier all depends on the background climate of the planet -- the cooler the planet, the lower the tropopause.

"In periods of Earth's history when it was very warm, volcanic cooling would not have been very important because Earth would have been shielded by this warm, high tropopause," said Wordsworth. "In cooler conditions, Earth becomes uniquely vulnerable to having these kinds of volcanic perturbations to climate."


That's an effect I've been thinking about much, and it may be hugely important during this century and beyond...

As the climate warms, intensity and duration of any volcanic or nuclear winter should get smaller.


LOL - I guess that would be a glass-half-full interpretation of what is happening. Let's just hope we are not in a position to ever verify this. Funny feeling, that although intellectually fascinating as it is, it may not be all that fun to actually witness.

And BTW, you can take winter back to where it belongs! :D
Looks like the E coast storm is much warmer then expected
Here is the recent discussion from NY NWS; they are noting the much faster than expected move on the low (as well as the warmer air mass as noted by Taz below) resulting in lesser impacts in some areas:

National Weather Service New York NY
814 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks from near the Mid Atlantic coast this
morning to southeastern Massachusetts by this evening, passing
near Montauk Point as it does so this afternoon. The storm then
tracks into Northern Maine tonight, then through the Canadian
Maritimes Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure moves through
the region Thursday and Friday. Another low pressure system may
affect the area Friday night through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Storm racing NNE faster than expected - pushing warmer air aloft
in faster than expected as well. Low is near Ocean City MD (just
inland) at 12z.

Based on this - have cancelled all winter headlines for
Long Island, except N Nassau. Have changed NYC, along with N
Nassau, Hudson and coastal SE CT to a winter weather advisory.
Converted interior SE CT, coastal SW CT, S Westchester and E
portions of NE NJ to a Winter Storm Warning. Blizzard warning
remains in effect elsewhere.

Snow totals remain 18-24 inches across Orange, Putnam and W
Passaic down to 2 to 4 inches across Suffolk County (already
has fallen). Expect rain to push into advisory areas this
morning and a change over to sleet and possibly rain in Winter
Storm warning areas. SE portions of Blizzard Warning area could
see some sleet mix in as well.

Strong Gusty winds remain a threat - with gusts of 40-50mph
expected CWA wide, with isolated gusts of 55 to 60 mph possible
over mainly coastal areas. The strongest gusts should be from
13-17z.

Precipitation changes to all snow before ending this evening.
It should be dry overnight, except for maybe some snow showers
moving in late tonight in far W Orange County.

Concerns with forecast - with westward shift in track -
increasing potential for dry air to work in aloft - so
precipitation could end sooner than expected with a period of
freezing drizzle possible late this afternoon/evening.

With temperatures falling below freezing tonight, any water
remaining on roadways could freeze, depending on how quickly
winds come down.
The core areas of many lows are relatively dry compared to the displaced convection away from the center; probably a good thing that the core is hugging the coast for many coastal locations that it will cross near or over in terms lesser amounts of snow or other precipitation.
And the core of this storm is very dry with most of the precipitation displaced to the North and East (and the Conus jet is helping with that displacement) as well as with the very fast speed of the low:


Just spoke to my Daughter in Western Mass and she advised that it is snowing heavily and blizzard type snow outside; that is pretty evident on the current loops:

261. SuzK
Here in NE Penn, south of the Scranton-WIlkes Barre corridor, just near the intersection of I-80 and I-81, we started the morning with 18" of snow. My husband had to break a path to the chicken coop. Another 7-12" is called for. It is very powdery, so all the surrounding ski resorts will be jumpin'...til the weekend when its warm again. We have had an unusually warm winter, until winter actually arrived last week. We're frozen in process with near 20 gallons of semi-processed maple sap. We're gambling on one more clear flush when it warms up next, with all this fresh snow an added bonus, maybe we'll go beyond our syruping goal. It's really pretty outside.
Quoting 261. SuzK:

Here in NE Penn, south of the Scranton-WIlkes Barre corridor, just near the intersection of I-80 and I-81, we started the morning with 18" of snow. My husband had to break a path to the chicken coop. Another 7-12" is called for. It is very powdery, so all the surrounding ski resorts will be jumpin'...til the weekend when its warm again. We have had an unusually warm winter, until winter actually arrived last week. We're frozen in process with near 20 gallons of semi-processed maple sap. We're gambling on one more clear flush when it warms up next, with all this fresh snow an added bonus, maybe we'll go beyond our syruping goal. It's really pretty outside.


Does that qualify as a sticky situation? Do you take WU orders?
I only use real maple syrup on my "pan con maple syrup" (as me and my little one refer to French Toast).
12-15" in Harrisburg, PA at the moment, with steady snow. Radar loops from the local TV are showing the snow begin lightening. Hoping to get a few more inches out of this. We are performing as expected from the NWS, the SE corner is underperforming, due to that sleet mix that my university's chief meteorologist was worried about.
Early-morning water-vapor satellite imagery features an
evolving baroclinic leaf
- SPC Mesoscale Discussion

NE is being attacked by an "evolving baroclinic leaf" I thought leaves were a springtime phenomenon? ;)
Quoting 256. thetwilightzone:

Looks like the E coast storm is much warmer then expected


Yeah, 4" of snow reported in Central Park. About 24 hours ago I saw a local forecast for 22" of snow. So I would call that a major bust for that area.

Also, looks like a lot of 2-3" around Washington D.C. Again, some local forecast were showing 8-12" about 24 hours ago.

The low tracked further to the west than expected and caused a lot of mixing with freezing rain and sleet from D.C. to NYC and points to the east.
Quoting 259. weathermanwannabe:

And the core of this storm is very dry with most of the precipitation displaced to the North and East (and the Conus jet is helping with that displacement) as well as with the very fast speed of the low:



good move along faster is better did not want a bunch of snow anyway
Quoting 237. daddyjames:



Mesoscale Discussion 0292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Tue Mar 14 2017

Areas affected...Northern portions of VA/MD...eastern PA...northern
NJ...southern NY into southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 140722Z - 141215Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly heavy snow will develop north/northeastward
through the early/mid morning hours. Snow rates in excess of 1-2
in/hr will become increasingly common, with some embedded higher
rates likely, especially toward sunrise and beyond across
eastern/south-central PA, northern NJ, and much of southern NY and
nearby CT/MA.

DISCUSSION...A gradual phasing of dual upstream shortwave troughs
will occur today while pronounced upward vertical motion spreads
generally northeastward across the region this morning in concert
with an increasingly coupled upper jet structure and a near-coastal
warm conveyor. Latest surface analysis features around a 1000 mb
surface low near the northeast NC coast as of 07Z (3AM EDT). To the
north, considerable pressure falls of 4-5 mb/2 hours are maximized
roughly along the I-95 corridor and immediate coast of the
mid-Atlantic/Northeast, which is observationally consistent with he
intense cyclogenesis expected over the next 6-12 hours (and beyond)
northward along the coast.

As cyclogenesis continues to occur, observations/short-term guidance
are suggestive that the surface wet-bulb zero line will continue to
slowly transition northward across parts of DE/NJ toward the NYC
metro. This is suggestive of a more transitional/mixed precipitation
type along the I-95 corridor. A longer duration of
heavy-snow-optimal profiles, attributable to increasing lift
coincident with a deep/saturated dendritic layer, are expected just
west/northwest of the I-95 corridor from northern parts of VA and MD
into south-central/eastern PA, northern NJ, much of southern NY, and
eventually nearby CT/MA through 12-15Z.

Lift/saturation aside, consistent with earlier 00Z observed
soundings from Washington-Dulles and Wallops Island VA, various
short-term forecast soundings suggest that very weak elevated
buoyancy will continue to exist along the coast as mid-level lapse
rates continue to steepen over the mid-Atlantic region. In the
presence of increasing mid-level frontogenetical forcing, this is
likely to contribute to increasingly organized/intense bands of snow
and enhanced snowfall rates through the mid-morning hours, including
some possibility for a few localized instances of thundersnow
.

..Guyer.. 03/14/2017

Is he out there
Quoting 64. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Definately 4-8 for Reagan Intl! But im expecting 15-18 at my place in NJ! Just remain hopeful DJ!


So update on TCA's "forecast" and my totally based on my gut guess for Reagan National Airport in Washington DC.

Very slippery wintry mix icing over region, may change to snow later this morning



9:00 a.m (EST). update: For all those wondering, Reagan National Airport says it has received two inches of snow so far.

We both still have a shot! But that rain/sleet described earlier really put a dent in our chances.

Ice is covering the trees, will the cherry blossoms make it or not?
Chicago NWS is providing with live updated map that shows snow totals over the NY region. As you zoom and change the extent of your window range your snowfall totals are listed to your right that correlate to that extent your viewing. Neat tool.

But from this you can see as of right now 5-10" has fallen across NYC increasing south to north. From that we have a SW to NE orientated band of 10-16" that have fallen along the Appalachian Mts. in West Virginia up through PA into Southern New York.

LINK SNOW TOTALS INTERACTIVE MAP
Link
Quoting 267. Andrebrooks:

Is he out there


Somewhere in Central/Western Massachusetts, i believe.
Not much snow here in D.C.Went out this morning and measured around 3 and half inches in most parts of my yard,however roads in my neighborhood still aren't in good shape.At least the kids got a day off from school and will get to play in SOME snow.
Jim Cantore will be doing push-ups in the snow shortly. Place your bets
Quoting 272. nymore:

Jim Cantore will be doing push-ups in the snow shortly. Place your bets


You gotta wonder how much and how long he's been drinking their "supplies" when doing this sort of thing . . .
We're getting over 2"/hour here in the Hudson Valley (Cold Spring, NY). Visibility is less than 1/4 mile. Right now we have about 11 inches.
Quoting 264. Astrometeor:

Early-morning water-vapor satellite imagery features an
evolving baroclinic leaf
- SPC Mesoscale Discussion

NE is being attacked by an "evolving baroclinic leaf" I thought leaves were a springtime phenomenon? ;)


My eyes are still focused on the Great Lakes and the lake effect snow. We had about three inches (Southwest of Chicago) overnight, and more to come today. Meanwhile, the temperature stays below freezing for the next two days, with a 20° high today, and 13° for a low tonight and tomorrow night.
This is the most snow we've had this year, but no drifts, and nothing remarkable enough to take pictures...I won't even have to shovel or plow the driveway, and by Thursday it will all melt.
i guess the blizzard fizzled so were back to climate change, man i hope u all are right, cause i really like the warmth.
In looking at the current radar loops (winter mosaic), it looks like the snow is already tapering off from DC and the NE coast with lots of snow falling however inland from PA to the North through New England and moving into Maine. A real fast event compared to a somewhat slower storm that the models were forecasting as late as yesterday.
Just a reminder.....
11. washingtonian115
2:14 PM EDT on March 13, 2017
1 +
I smell another snowquester (3/6/13 AKA fail storm) happening in D.C.I've seen this before....
This surface chart had the low forecast at a low of 999 milibars on approach to New England, and intensifying further after that, as of 4:30 am; have no idea what the air pressure it at this time (whether higher or lower):



For a change: severe weather in Florianopolis/Brasil yesterday:

Giant hail:

Chuva de Granizo Muito Forte em Florianópolis SC

Umm, watch it til the end. Hope nobody got hurt:

Ciclone norde ilha de florianopolis(2)

Another one of the downburst:
EM FLORIANÓPOLIS
Reporting from Sanford, FL. No snow here!

BUT Had a wild squall line go through here about 5:30 am. Power went out
and FPL got it up again within 30 minutes, but it has gone out probably a dozen
times since.

Still slightly windy here, overcast, 55 F, winds 16 mph wnw with strong occasional gusts.
Once the NWS gets out and checks out a couple locations in the Port Charlotte and Inglewood area we will have a couple confirmed tornadoes.

Tornado signature was observed on radar and the damage in the area also looks to be caused by a tornado (most likely an EF-0 or EF1).
A parked pickup truck was flipped over so the winds were reasonably high.
Quoting 271. washingtonian115:

Not much snow here in D.C.Went out this morning and measured around 3 and half inches in most parts of my yard,however roads in my neighborhood still aren't in good shape.At least the kids got a day off from school and will get to play in SOME snow.


2" here in College Park. I had almost 2" of snow before 11PM changeover to rain and ice pellets. I was surprised to see freezing rain build back in overnight; was expecting more rain, and I have a dense crust with about a cm of liquid equivalent as ice pellets and glaze on top of that 2", packed down now to less than an inch.

But I think we're done.
Quoting 268. daddyjames:



So update on TCA's "forecast" and my totally based on my gut guess for Reagan National Airport in Washington DC.

Very slippery wintry mix icing over region, may change to snow later this morning



9:00 a.m (EST). update: For all those wondering, Reagan National Airport says it has received two inches of snow so far.

We both still have a shot! But that rain/sleet described earlier really put a dent in our chances.

Ice is covering the trees, will the cherry blossoms make it or not?


My peach blossoms look really sad this morning encased in thick ice. Will see if they recover after it melts. If it does not melt and we get dry cold advection tonight, blossoms inside will cool to the WET BULB temperature from evaporative cooling of the ice. This will be... ungood.
Of course, and mindful of the snow impacts, lots of cold air behind the low and a very deep trof; our lows in North Florida over the next 3 days are currently forecast in the mid-30's with an overnight low of 31 for Wednesday night in the Tallahassee region; pretty chilly for mid-March............Reminds me of Winter in March in the olden days................
That snowstorm was among the biggest busts I've ever seen. It brought maybe an inch of snow and an inch of sleet and altogether It just put a cherry on top of the most below-average winter I've ever experienced, with only about 4 inches of snow all winter. That was depressing. lol
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
1148 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR BROWARD COUNTY TORNADO EVENT...


.OVERVIEW...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEY CREW FOUND EVIDENCE
OF A TORNADO WITH A DISCONTINUOUS TRACK THROUGH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY THIS MORNING. THE TORNADO WAS FORMED FROM
A STORM ALONG A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING.


Big swell in Durban/South Africa two days ago. This was the same day when a cycle tour had to be discontinued in Cape Town due to very strong winds (I've posted videos that day).
Report: White House eyeing even deeper EPA cuts
The Hill, By Devin Henry - 03/14/17 12:07 PM EDT
City Of Atlantic:
@CityOfAtlantic

I'm sure this would freak everyone out right ?!

293. vis0
Since i can't eMal WxU (my WxU mail on fritz) and having logging issues at DISQUS i'm forced to post one more time here for sciences sake. (see ya on the new blog unless similar circumstances happen within the month or NYC quake occurs)

At the 1151 AM< news briefings the Governor of NY Mr. Cuomo made a very important observation between his father 12 years of being Governor of NYS and his (the Son) 6 years. i think you might like to get a copy. Sadly my DVR froze just at that time have no recording of it.  Basically the Governor made the public THINK what is causing more as to nature/weather that has doubled to quadrupled the need for Federal assistance.

 

INTERESTING UNOFFICIAL  note friend who has lots of weather instruments (can't name as instruments are illegal to place in his Apt so its hush hush) had SUSTAINED winds at 41mph in Manhattan from 915AM till 945AM if the LOW would have been enclosed what would it have been???

crazy info to follow::

 
Going to sneak in some ml-d ...notice
the lightning strikes all 5or6? near my area, heard 3 or 4 (2 were within 2 secs).1 i bet was only picked
up by the ml-d as was very lite and cloud to cloud at 08:40 AM just
before that cooler tongue of colder air tried to head southward.  NUTTY INFO skip the following if you don't like to read things that i'm told only happen in my head, even-though it matches reality.
Again
the ml-d is set to attract the closest/strongest low/front to an area
600 miles in dia. around zip code 10016, so there might be more lightning around that diameter but for some reason during snow storms the lightning is attracted to "outflow" nearer the ml-s in fact on Manhattan Island. In 20109/11 many snowstorms had lighting, 2 had over ~20 lightnings ALL in Manhattan ...when the ml-d was not resetting. .  Once that force passes the ml-d
it tries to attract it back thus creating a form of spin, hence once
that cooler air passed the ml-d it slowed its forward progress as the
push-pull of the ml-d was attracting it towards zip 10016 or in this
case back NW.   Of course ALL this has to flow through physics so you
see the LOW in-trenched so cooler air via its west from 9am till 11am.
 Now that its no longer that polar spin's AOI that is closer instead the
LOW straddling the coastline it is going to win over whatever the ml-d
is set to influence.

!!!!!!POOF!!!!!!!!

good morning all...

pat can you check your mail?
Quoting 293. vis0:

Since i can't eMal WxU (my WxU mail on fritz) and having logging issues at DISQUS i'm forced to post one more time here for sciences sake. (see ya on the new blog unless similar circumstances happen within the month or NYC quake occurs)

At the 1151 AM< news briefings the Governor of NY Mr. Cuomo made a very important observation between his father 12 years of being Governor of NYS and his (the Son) 6 years. i think you might like to get a copy. Sadly my DVR froze just at that time have no recording of it.  Basically the Governor made the public THINK what is causing more as to nature/weather that has doubled to quadrupled the need for Federal assistance.

 

INTERESTING UNOFFICIAL  note friend who has lots of weather instruments (can't name as instruments are illegal to place in his Apt so its hush hush) had SUSTAINED winds at 41mph in Manhattan from 915AM till 945AM if the LOW would have been enclosed what would it have been???

crazy info to follow::

 
Going to sneak in some ml-d ...notice
the lightning strikes all 5or6? near my area, heard 3 or 4 (2 were within 2 secs).1 i bet was only picked
up by the ml-d as was very lite and cloud to cloud at 08:40 AM just
before that cooler tongue of colder air tried to head southward.  NUTTY INFO skip the following if you don't like to read things that i'm told only happen in my head, even-though it matches reality.
Again
the ml-d is set to attract the closest/strongest low/front to an area
600 miles in dia. around zip code 10016, so there might be more lightning around that diameter but for some reason during snow storms the lightning is attracted to "outflow" nearer the ml-s in fact on Manhattan Island. In 20109/11 many snowstorms had over ~20 lightnings ALL in Manhattan when the ml-d was not resetting. .  Once that force passes the ml-d
it tries to attract it back thus creating a form of spin, hence once
that cooler air passed the ml-d it slowed its forward progress as the
push-pull of the ml-d was attracting it towards zip 10016 or in this
case back NW.   Of course ALL this has to flow through physics so you
see the LOW in-trenched so cooler air via its west from 9am till 11am.
 Now that its no longer that polar spin's AOI that is closer instead the
LOW straddling the coastline it is going to win over whatever the ml-d
is set to influence.

!!!!!!POOF!!!!!!!!




Don't let the wife know Im on the kindle as Im in recovery post op. : P

But u can log into disqus in the blind, w/o yur disqus log in, with your FB aaccount if u have one. The prompt will ask.
Happy Pi' day all.

: )

Getting some good wind gusts here in st pete along tampa bay FL behind this cold front. My previous location where I lived (bethesda Maryland just north of DC) ended up with much less snow than expected but still enough to powder everything up.
Quoting 228. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Miami area



Keep, all of these images are gone.
Quoting 298. VAstorms:



Keep, all of these images are gone.
they have a time limit I guess not sure
they are all trafficland cams
Weather forecasting remains a tricky prospect and particularly when trying to forecast where you will get the worst impacts from a low (whether tropical or winter) when you have complex pattern in place and exact trajectory and speed is an issue. Bottom line here is that the models forecasted a significant winter event for the NE and that has actually come to pass for many regions and we should be thankful that it is turning out to be a relatively short-term event because of the speed of the low. No harm - no foul................NWS did what it had to do in terms of the watches and warnings and updating them as conditions have warranted.............The event is not over yet but at least they did not get crippling snow in coastal NY and the Big Apple (versus Upstate NY).

Don't know as to the issue of flooding and coastal surge though.
Here is the noonish update from NY NWS: chilly in the wake of the low.................


National Weather Service New York NY
1152 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Nor`Easter off the Jersey coast passes across eastern Long
Island this afternoon. The storm tracks into Northern Maine
tonight, then through the Canadian Maritimes Wednesday and
Thursday. High pressure moves through the region Thursday and
Friday. Another low pressure system may affect the area Friday
night through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 15Z, the Nor`Easter is centered just northeast of Atlantic
City NJ. Winds gusting to 50 to 60 mph along the Jersey coast
and north on to Long Island (the KSWF and KFWN 15Z are believed
erroneous). Buoys south of LI reporting gust to 50 KT and seas
up to 20`.

Satellite imagery has coldest tops moving north and Radar
appears to suggest back end of the PCPN reaching the south shore
of LI around 17Z.

No changes to Advisories/Warnings/Snow amounts at this time.

Rain is producing urban flooding on Long Island.

Mixed PCPN / Snow Line has moved north to central CT and the
lower hudson valley.

Do not expect to much more accumulation.

Precipitation changes to all snow before ending this evening,
but becomes light and showery. Dry overnight.

With temperatures falling below freezing tonight, any water
remaining on roadways could freeze, depending on how quickly
winds come down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Axis of closed upper low passes tomorrow with isolated to
scattered snow showers possible.

It will remain much below normal, with highs in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
By Wednesday night the powerful Nor`Easter will be moving into
the Canadian maritimes, with strong northwesterly flow developing
on the back side of the system. A secondary low-level trough will
move through the Northeast, providing enough instability and lift
for a few snow showers during the evening. Below normal
temperatures are expected with wind chill values in the single
digits Wednesday night. Below normal temperatures and strong and
gusty winds will continue through Thursday as the upper trough
slowly departs. By Friday, a weak deep layered ridge will pass
through the region, allowing winds to weaken and return to a
southwesterly direction. Warm advection should lead to a 5 to 10
degree overall increase in temperatures, though the values will
still remain below climatological normals. By the weekend, an
upper trough and attendant surface front move through from west to
east with a chance of snow and/or rain. Right now the system
appears to be weak, and uncertainty still exists with the track of
the low and amount of any precipitation that will fall.
Utica is presently getting some heavy snow.

MVCC Utica webcam, Baseball HOF webcam
It has been snowing here since 6am. Light and first and very wet so it did not accumulate much. Pretty windy so visibility was pretty poor on the drive home. I drove slow (40mph) on I-93 and left plenty of distance from the car in front of me. Now that I am home I can't see the house across the street. It is still a very wet snow so I expect snowfall totals to be less but shoveling will be worse.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Snowing here again..but not for long....
New snow band developing and strengthening over central PA. More snow for me! :)
Quoting 290. barbamz:

Big swell in Durban/South Africa two days ago. This was the same day when a cycle tour had to be discontinued in Cape Town due to very strong winds (I've posted videos that day).

Fanned by the gale-force Southeaster there was a terrible shack fire in Hout Bay, Cape Town along the planned cycle race route (also the suburb where I live, but I'm currently busy travelling). 3 dead, 15000 homeless ... pictures
On top of that, a huge bushfire charred the mountain opposite of the bay - after a quite devastating fire season and still intensifying drought.