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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Severe Weather Threat, Extreme Fire Danger over Southern Plains

By: Bob Henson 6:34 PM GMT on March 06, 2017

A windy, fast-moving storm system will bring the risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, as it barrels across the Great Plains on Monday afternoon and evening. The severe storms will be generated by a very large upper-level trough swinging east across a broad area of fairly warm, moist air feeding into a surface low in the Dakotas. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center highlighted an enhanced risk of severe weather covering most of Missouri in its 10:30 am CST outlook on Monday. A slight risk extends from eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas northward to central Minnesota.

Today’s setup is a fairly typical one for March, with a very strong late-winter-style polar jet stream encountering an early-spring air mass. While a large swath of the Plains could experience a fast-moving severe storm, the most potent juxtaposition of unstable air and upper-level forcing will evolve near and just northwest of the Ozarks. Surface dew points in this area were already approaching 60°F at midday Monday, with temperatures near 70°F. A dry line now over western Kansas and Oklahoma will sharpen this afternoon, serving as a focal point for thunderstorm development. Supercell thunderstorms over far eastern Kansas and southwest Missouri ahead of the dry line have the potential to generate very large hail and significant tornadoes, according to SPC. As a cold front overtakes the dry line and sweeps through, this evening’s storms should eventually morph into a squall line, possibly extending from the upper Midwest all the way to Texas.


Figure 1. Convective outlook issued by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center at 10:30 am CST Monday, March 6, 2017.


Figure 2. Visible GOES satellite image from 1645Z (10:45 am CST) Monday, March 6, 2017. A large field of low-level moisture is evident in the cumulus streaming north across Texas into the Central Plains, while a ribbon of higher clouds angling from southwest Texas to Illinois corresponds with strong upper-level winds overtopping the moisture across parts of Oklahoma, Missouri, and far southeast Kansas. Image credit: NASA MSFC Earth Science Office.


Figure 3. Model depiction of surface and upper-level features produced by the 12Z Monday run of the GFS model, valid at 00Z Tuesday, March 7, 2017 (6:00 pm CST Monday). A cold front across the Plains, evident in the kinked black lines (isobars, or lines of constant surface pressure) from Minnesota to Texas, will be shoved eastward by the strong upper level low evident in the blue colors (these show the height of the 500-millibar surface, shown in tens of meters). Image credit: www.tropicaltidbits.com.

Extremely critical fire danger over parts of Southern Plains
Powerful upper-level winds and the surface low wrapping up over the Dakotas are teaming up to generate a swath of strong, warm, and very dry southwest winds behind the dry line across the Southern Plains—bad news for fire risk. SPC has issued an “extremely critical” fire risk area, its most dire, along a band from east-central New Mexico to eastern Nebraska. While drought conditions are not nearly as widespread or intense across this region as they were last fall, moderate drought has persisted across large parts of Oklahoma, western Kansas, and eastern Colorado through the winter.


Figure 4. Fire weather outlook issued by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center at 9:00 am CST Monday, March 6, 2017.

The 2017 tornado season is running far ahead of average
The highly progressive pattern that’s kept midlatitude storms shuttling across the United States all winter has given an early boost to the U.S. tornado season of 2017. Such a progressive pattern is important but not sufficient for producing early-season severe weather. Even if upper-level conditions favor severe weather, there may not be enough time between midlatitude storm systems for unstable air to flow back into place from the Gulf of Mexico. This year, however, the Gulf and Caribbean have been consistently warm, which has helped generate plenty of warm, moist air for midlatitude storms to access. In records back to 1981, this is the first year in which sea surface temperatures averaged across the entire Gulf never dropped below 73°F, as discussed by Eric Berger at ArsTechnica and shown in Figure 5 below (thanks to WU member Mark Cole for this tip). As of Monday, SSTs over the western Gulf were running 1°C - 2°C (1.8-3.6°F) above the seasonal norm.

Thus far in 2017, NOAA/SPC has logged 268 preliminary tornado reports. This is roughly double the average of 133 reports racked up by March 5 over the preceding 11 years (2005-2015). This year also stands out in a longer-term perspective, even after you “inflation-adjust” the data back to 1954 to account for the increased tendency since then for a given tornado to be spotted, chased, photographed, videotaped, etc. After the inflation adjustment, this year’s preliminary total of 228 tornado reports (see Figure 6 below) compares to a long-term average of just 69 reports by this point in the year.


Figure 5. In data extending back to 1981, sea surface temperatures averaged across the Gulf of Mexico were the warmest on record this winter. Image credit: Michael Lowry, @MichaelRLowry.


Figure 6. “Inflation-adjusted” cumulative tornado totals for the period 1954 - 2016 (various colors) and 2017 to date (black). The red trace shows the highest adjusted value observed on each date through the year, with the lowest value on each date in magenta. Image credit: NOAA/SPC.

Enawo churns toward Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Enawo continued to chug toward the east coast of Madagascar late Monday local time. Satellite imagery suggests that Ewano is now at least a Category 3 storm—the first to be reported anywhere in the Southern Hemisphere since its 2016-17 season began last July. Enawo is also only the third hurricane-strength tropical cyclone to develop this season, which marks the latest appearance on record of the Southern Hemisphere’s third hurricane, according to Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University). See Jeff Masters’ post earlier today for more on Enawo.


Bob Henson

Severe Weather Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Summer type pattern going on here



Rains over performed yesterday as well, 4-6 inches in spots

thanks for the update as always
The NWS Slidell Radar shows the deep southerly inflow racing North this afternoon.

Fuel fo da fire'


Thanks Mr. Henson; here is the current position of the Conus jet and warm Gulf flow out ahead of the pending frontal line.  

/data/atmosphere/hdwinds/amv/IRNHE17.GIF

Thanks for the update! And good luck to all in the path of the severe weather!

Wish we already had the new imagery of GOES16 at hand. See below by clicking the pic.twitter.com link (from this morning). Amazing.



BTW, CIMSS satellite blog is dedicated to the new skills of GOES16 as well.
And the first two wind reports of the day in Northern Colorado with one coming in at 65 knots within the last 3 hours:


today Reports Graphic


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 931.5mb/124.6kt




06/1730 UTC 14.4S 52.4E T6.5/6.5 ENAWO

And RSMC La Reunion estimates 938 mbar central pressure at 18Z (22 Reunion time).
Wunderground News

Trump's Plan to Slash NOAA Budget Puts Lives, Climate Research at Risk, Scientists Say

Pam Wright

Published: March 6, 2017




In a move scientists say may hinder accurate weather forecasting and warnings and put American lives at risk, the Trump administration intends to slash the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS), according to the Washington Post.

NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research would be slashed by 26 percent, or $126 million. NWS would take a 5 percent cut. Both agencies are part of the Commerce Department, which would take an 18 percent hit overall, according to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memo obtained by the Post.

The National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, which monitors weather and collects climate data, would see the largest budget cut – $513 million, or 22 percent of its funding.

Former NOAA employees say the move would put the American public in danger.

Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator under President Barack Obama, told weather.com the "draconian cuts" to the agency that oversees weather forecasting and funds weather and climate research would "be devastating to the economy, jobs and to the safety and livelihoods of Americans in every state."

Many of the cuts are directly relevant to NOAA’s ability to provide timely and accurate weather forecasts and warnings, now and in the future, Lubchenco said. She called the cuts to the satellite program, NWS and research program particularly worrisome, noting 90 percent of weather forecasting data comes from satellites.

"Research conducted both within NOAA and by academic scientists is essential for improved accuracy and more timely forecasts and warnings ... extreme weather events can be devastating," she said. "It’s in our national interest to do everything possible to ensure people and businesses and governments have the best possible information to keep them safe and make smart decisions. The proposed cuts represent foolhardy and likely uninformed false 'savings.'"

Rick Spinrad, a former chief scientist for NOAA, told weather.com the cuts are "short-sighted and ill-informed."

"They reflect a misunderstanding of the value of NOAA's research and operations (especially satellite operations) on the safety and well-being of every American," he said. "Unless the administration is not interested in continuing to enhance the protection of the lives and property of our citizens through, for example, improved weather forecasts, watches and warnings, these cuts should not be implemented."

The OMB document also requests information from the Commerce Department concerning the cost to lay off employees. In addition, it requested estimates for terminating leases and government "property disposal."

The document noted the administration wants to prioritize rebuilding the military and "highlights the tradeoffs and choices inherent in pursuing these goals," the Post reported.

David Titley, a professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University who served as NOAA’s chief operating officer in the Obama administration, told weather.com the budget "seems to be based on raiding the cookie jar for near-term gains, and let someone else pick up the pieces of broken agencies, of which NOAA will be one."

He said that while the 5 percent proposed NWS cut is not fatal, "it pressurizes these organizations and effectively 'neuters' them from undertaking any significant new services of methods of operation."

"All told, the $990 million or 17 percent cutback to NOAA is a very serious blow to an agency on which every American depends for accurate weather forecasts, safe beaches and coastal waters, safety of navigation for the tens of billion of dollars and tens of thousands of U.S. jobs dependent on seaborne trade, and climate information that every sector of our economy and society uses to design appropriate infrastructure. And for what? $990 million will run the Department of Defense for about 12 hours. As a retired naval officer, I personally think this is a bad deal for our country."

The impacts of the proposed cuts would hit many sectors, as noted by tweets from individuals reacting to Friday's news.

"I simply could not do my job without NOAA data. It is invaluable to the insurance industry for proper risk management," tweeted Bryan Wood, an insurance industry meteorologist. "Any reduction to NOAA's free-to-use services could lead to a rise in prices in any number of consumer-facing industries."

Another NOAA area that would take a hit involves research, education and grants, including the elimination of the $73 million Sea Grant program, which supports coastal research conducted through 33 university programs across the country.

One of these university programs set to be crippled by the elimination of the Sea Grant program is the Great Lake Restoration Initiative, which was launched in 2010 to accelerate efforts to protect and restore the largest system of fresh surface water in the world. The initiative will also lose funding with the proposed 25 percent budget cut to the Environmental Protection Agency. In fact, early reports indicate the initiative's annual EPA funding could be slashed from $300 million to around $10 million – a 97 percent reduction – the AP reported.

"Any cuts to the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative pose a direct threat to Lake Erie and our drinking water," Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) told weather.com in an email. "These rumored cuts would effectively eliminate this important program and stall the progress we’ve made in improving the health of the Lakes. If these reports are true, I will fight like hell in the Senate to restore this funding in full."

Titley noted that while he has not seen the budget document, cuts to the Sea Grant and other educational programs "is evidence of the war on education and knowledge."

"There seems to be an attempt to decapitate the next generation of ocean policy professionals," Titley said. "Perhaps the administration is afraid of the knowledge they will gain and their work to preserve functioning coastal ecosystems."

Trump intends to submit his budget to Congress on March 13.


The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

22 killed already from twisters this year. 16 all of last season.
It seems we've been upgraded to slight, right on the edge of enhanced. From what I've seen previously, my area of S C IL should just see a late night squall line, but may be a little more potent with the upgrade. Still very overcast here, had a little precip as roads were wet when left for lunch. Turned gauge back over to catch rest of the day's. Currently 62 w/ 60 dew pt., press has dropped below 29.9", winds still 10-15 w/ 25 gust from the S.

For those that missed comment in previous blog, Perryville tornado upgraded to 180mph peak EF-4.
Here is the latest (1:00 pm EST) floater image for Enawo.  Unfortunately, it keeps looking like game over/zero hour is right on the horizon for Madagascar; will finally note that the Capitol City (Antananarivo) is on the backside of the East Coast mountain range but will be on the dirty side of the storm based on the current track thus subject to intense flooding.  






Quoting 14. Patrap:

Wunderground News

Trump's Plan to Slash NOAA Budget Puts Lives, Climate Research at Risk, Scientists Say

Pam Wright

Published: March 6, 2017




In a move scientists say may hinder accurate weather forecasting and warnings and put American lives at risk, the Trump administration intends to slash the budget of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS), according to the Washington Post.

NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research would be slashed by 26 percent, or $126 million. NWS would take a 5 percent cut. Both agencies are part of the Commerce Department, which would take an 18 percent hit overall, according to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memo obtained by the Post.

The National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, which monitors weather and collects climate data, would see the largest budget cut – $513 million, or 22 percent of its funding.

Former NOAA employees say the move would put the American public in danger.

Jane Lubchenco, NOAA administrator under President Barack Obama, told weather.com the "draconian cuts" to the agency that oversees weather forecasting and funds weather and climate research would "be devastating to the economy, jobs and to the safety and livelihoods of Americans in every state."

Many of the cuts are directly relevant to NOAA’s ability to provide timely and accurate weather forecasts and warnings, now and in the future, Lubchenco said. She called the cuts to the satellite program, NWS and research program particularly worrisome, noting 90 percent of weather forecasting data comes from satellites.

"Research conducted both within NOAA and by academic scientists is essential for improved accuracy and more timely forecasts and warnings ... extreme weather events can be devastating," she said. "It’s in our national interest to do everything possible to ensure people and businesses and governments have the best possible information to keep them safe and make smart decisions. The proposed cuts represent foolhardy and likely uninformed false 'savings.'"

Rick Spinrad, a former chief scientist for NOAA, told weather.com the cuts are "short-sighted and ill-informed."

"They reflect a misunderstanding of the value of NOAA's research and operations (especially satellite operations) on the safety and well-being of every American," he said. "Unless the administration is not interested in continuing to enhance the protection of the lives and property of our citizens through, for example, improved weather forecasts, watches and warnings, these cuts should not be implemented."

The OMB document also requests information from the Commerce Department concerning the cost to lay off employees. In addition, it requested estimates for terminating leases and government "property disposal."

The document noted the administration wants to prioritize rebuilding the military and "highlights the tradeoffs and choices inherent in pursuing these goals," the Post reported.

David Titley, a professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University who served as NOAA’s chief operating officer in the Obama administration, told weather.com the budget "seems to be based on raiding the cookie jar for near-term gains, and let someone else pick up the pieces of broken agencies, of which NOAA will be one."

He said that while the 5 percent proposed NWS cut is not fatal, "it pressurizes these organizations and effectively 'neuters' them from undertaking any significant new services of methods of operation."

"All told, the $990 million or 17 percent cutback to NOAA is a very serious blow to an agency on which every American depends for accurate weather forecasts, safe beaches and coastal waters, safety of navigation for the tens of billion of dollars and tens of thousands of U.S. jobs dependent on seaborne trade, and climate information that every sector of our economy and society uses to design appropriate infrastructure. And for what? $990 million will run the Department of Defense for about 12 hours. As a retired naval officer, I personally think this is a bad deal for our country."

The impacts of the proposed cuts would hit many sectors, as noted by tweets from individuals reacting to Friday's news.

"I simply could not do my job without NOAA data. It is invaluable to the insurance industry for proper risk management," tweeted Bryan Wood, an insurance industry meteorologist. "Any reduction to NOAA's free-to-use services could lead to a rise in prices in any number of consumer-facing industries."

Another NOAA area that would take a hit involves research, education and grants, including the elimination of the $73 million Sea Grant program, which supports coastal research conducted through 33 university programs across the country.

One of these university programs set to be crippled by the elimination of the Sea Grant program is the Great Lake Restoration Initiative, which was launched in 2010 to accelerate efforts to protect and restore the largest system of fresh surface water in the world. The initiative will also lose funding with the proposed 25 percent budget cut to the Environmental Protection Agency. In fact, early reports indicate the initiative's annual EPA funding could be slashed from $300 million to around $10 million – a 97 percent reduction – the AP reported.

"Any cuts to the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative pose a direct threat to Lake Erie and our drinking water," Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) told weather.com in an email. "These rumored cuts would effectively eliminate this important program and stall the progress we’ve made in improving the health of the Lakes. If these reports are true, I will fight like hell in the Senate to restore this funding in full."

Titley noted that while he has not seen the budget document, cuts to the Sea Grant and other educational programs "is evidence of the war on education and knowledge."

"There seems to be an attempt to decapitate the next generation of ocean policy professionals," Titley said. "Perhaps the administration is afraid of the knowledge they will gain and their work to preserve functioning coastal ecosystems."

Trump intends to submit his budget to Congress on March 13.


The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.



Maybe part of the depopulation program, every man, woman, and child for his/herself
Good luck
This very useless winter isn't going down without a fight.I'am ready for 60's and 70's and all major models agree this afternoon that D.C could be looking at anywhere from 6-10 inches of snow.It will be the nasty yucky type.Bring on the warm weather and sunshine!!


Mesoscale Discussion 0252

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017
Frome the previous blog...

Quoting 35. DFWdad:

I am grateful for the international coverage that this blog, and it's commentators, present. I want to know what going on around the world. The headline news' world we live in does not always present it.

However, googling "Madagascar Drought", there are many news sites that report it without the inferences.

The author of this op-ed is Nicholas Kristof and is described as as "liberal / progressive op-ed columnist". Not my words.

A quick google search on "madagascar drought causes", and on the 1st page / from the site phys.org, I find this article, "Drought caused by El Nino threatening southern Africa: UN".
"The region's "intense drought... has expanded and strengthened since the earliest stages of the 2015-2016 agricultural season, driven by one of the strongest El Nino events of the last 50 years".

Yes, yes, I know, you will argue that AGW is making everything worse.

But this article never mentions El Nino, repeatedly hammers climate change, and Trump's name even as the hapless villager says "whatever you say".

You call it an Op-Ed, but because of its spin, I call it Fake News.




It's not fake news. Here's an excerpt from the article by Nicholas Kristof:

"The immediate cause of the droughts was an extremely warm El Niño event, which came on top of a larger drying trend in the last few decades in parts of Africa. New research, just published in the bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, concludes that human-caused climate change exacerbated El Niño’s intensity and significantly reduced rainfall in parts of Ethiopia and southern Africa."


And from the study 15. ASSESSING THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF LOCAL AND EAST PACIFIC WARMING TO THE 2015 DROUGHTS IN ETHIOPIA AND SOUTHERN AFRICA:

"Anthropogenic warming contributed to the 2015 Ethiopian and southern African droughts by increasing El Niño SSTs and local air temperatures, causing reduced rainfall and runoff, and contributing to severe food insecurity"

Conclusions

Anthropogenic warming contributed substantially to the very warm 2015/16 El Niño SSTs, and this anthropogenic contribution likely reduced NE and SA rainfall by approximately 16% and 24%. The associated simulated runoff reductions were much larger, 35% and 48%, respectively. A ~1°C warming over the tropical Pacific appears associated with a large (>70%) increase in El Niño diabatic forcing (Fig. 15.1f), and modest (~20%) precipitation reductions over NE/SA. These “modest” rainfall reductions, acting to accentuate natural El Niño impacts, have contributed to substantial food crises. Recent El Niños appear to be more intense (Supplemental Fig. S15.2). During El Niños, warmer IndoPacific SSTs, and associated rainfall changes, may be more influential than the direct impacts of local increases in air temperatures. The contrast between Figs. 15.2a,b and 15.2d,e tell us that, based on these hydrologic simulations, nonlocal warming in the tropical Pacific had a much stronger drought impact than did relatively small local air temperature impacts. We feel this result is quite important, possibly indicating that a major mode of “climate change” may be associated with more extreme tropical SST and SST gradients. “Global warming” expressed as local increases in air temperatures may have less dramatic impacts. Assessments (Brown et al. 2015) of local temperature impacts on crop yields suggest relatively small yield reductions per degree of warming (~2%per °C). A degree of warming in Niño-3.4 SSTs, concomitant with a warm ENSO event, can have larger impacts due to teleconnected precipitation declines. Because runoff forms a relatively small fraction of the hydrologic balance, the influence of rainfall deficits can be amplified, potentially leading to severe hydropower shortages (Davison 2015; Onishi 2016) and even severe drinking water deficits (Gauette 2016). These crises are just one aspect of the widespread food insecurity related to the extreme 2015/16 El Niño (Fig. 15.1), which is thought to have contributed to the severe food insecurity of 60 million people “primarily in the most vulnerable regions of southern Africa, East Africa, Central America, and the Pacific Islands” (OCHA 2016). If La Niña conditions follow, extreme warming in the western Pacific may lead to dry conditions over equatorial East Africa (Funk et al. 2015a; Funk et al. 2014; Shukla et al. 2014), exacerbating food insecurity conditions.
Not good:



And another cyclone developing to the east. Indian Ocean is really ramping up!





W Europe windstorm - Meteo-ciel map of max recorded wind gusts until 1800z (Monday, March 6): Link
(winner is Camaret-Sur-Mer with 193kph/120mph gust recorded, followed by Ouessant with 190kph - Britanny region)

Storm winds forecast tonight (kph) on the Mediterranean side, dangerous waves also over the next few days.
Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

This very useless winter isn't going down without a fight.I'am ready for 60's and 70's and all major models agree this afternoon that D.C could be looking at anywhere from 6-10 inches of snow.It will be the nasty yucky type.Bring on the warm weather and sunshine!!


But of course! This is the day my son drives through the mountains back to Ohio for school. A snowless winter except for the ONE DAY I have concerns.

And the winter was useless for testing cold season hardiness evaluation of winter vegetables. Winter forfeited the contest this year.
Island in red: now the windfield of fierce and deadly storm "Zeus" has left the mainland of France and is moving into the Mediterranean, battering Corsica:


Source for updates.
Quoting 23. barbamz:

Not good:



And another cyclone developing to the east. Indian Ocean is really ramping up!










Very compact, tight storm. Seems to be poised to hit a sparsely populated area in Madagascar; however, it's impact will be felt well inland with potential for 8-16" in higher elevations.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 61
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
155 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Much of Iowa

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until
1000 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will rapidly progress
east-northeast from the Missouri towards the Mississippi river
during the evening. This activity will likely form into an extensive
line of storms with all severe hazards possible, but damaging winds
as the main risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Mason City IA to 50
miles south southwest of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Grams
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Quoting 25. georgevandenberghe:



But of course! This is the day my son drives through the mountains back to Ohio for school. A snowless winter except for the ONE DAY I have concerns.

And the winter was useless for testing cold season hardiness evaluation of winter vegetables. Winter forfeited the contest this year.


Not here, but the last two year there wasn't a winter...

Hope all is well with your son. That is of course the one day the weather will be bad. I can make it rain in a drought by washing my car and taking a road trip.
And so it begins again. Will be a very dangerous day as these cells will be racing along at 40+ mph. Could see several strong tornadoes and looking like another outbreak will occur. Moderate risk upgrade could be along shortly.
New cells are forming very quickly now.
roll wu/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA  
152 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN BURT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
SOUTHEASTERN CUMING COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...  
NORTH CENTRAL DODGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
 
* UNTIL 215 PM CST  
 
* AT 152 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF  
UEHLING, OR 43 MILES NORTHWEST OF OMAHA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45  
MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE  
TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
LYONS, UEHLING, CRAIG, OAKLAND AND DEAD TIMBER STATE RECREATION  
AREA.  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...  
HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 141 AND 144.  
HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 129 AND 150.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 4164 9651 4171 9669 4201 9647 4193 9615  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 212DEG 46KT 4172 9659  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
MEAD  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

This very useless winter isn't going down without a fight.I'am ready for 60's and 70's and all major models agree this afternoon that D.C could be looking at anywhere from 6-10 inches of snow.It will be the nasty yucky type.Bring on the warm weather and sunshine!!

6-10 inches? Last I saw was an inch or two. A real storm would be nice.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 209 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 152 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

Severe Weather Page The Nexlab Text Page

Winter of 16-17' was murdered by the increasing warmth.
Quoting 34. 1Zach1:


6-10 inches? Last I saw was an inch or two. A real storm would be nice.
How about no storm? Or the alternative which is perhaps some cold rain which would help with the drought.The new Euro came in this afternoon and looks snowier.
Quoting 31. DeepSeaRising:

New cells are forming very quickly now.

Link
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

How about no storm? Or the alternative which is perhaps some cold rain which would help with the drought.The new Euro came in this afternoon and looks snowier.

10" of snow, or 70 degree weather please. Cold rain/cold wind is the worst option.
Quoting 39. barbamz:


Link



Gust along the boundary are up to 40mph` in many places.
Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

This very useless winter isn't going down without a fight.I'am ready for 60's and 70's and all major models agree this afternoon that D.C could be looking at anywhere from 6-10 inches of snow.It will be the nasty yucky type.Bring on the warm weather and sunshine!!


What? I don't see anything like that, at least nothing within the window of reasonable prediction. Over the next couple of days we're getting rain. Anything beyond that this time of year are WAGs, but temps have tendency to be warmer than predicted.
Quoting 38. washingtonian115:

How about no storm? Or the alternative which is perhaps some cold rain which would help with the drought.The new Euro came in this afternoon and looks snowier.
So it seems Winter waited all this time, and just said heck, let me just dump snow once it's March.
CIMSS-Loop of menacing Enawo (click the pic.twitter.com link below):


Quoting 42. Xyrus2000:



What? I don't see anything like that, at least nothing within the window of reasonable prediction. Over the next couple of days we're getting rain. Anything beyond that this time of year are WAGs, but temps have tendency to be warmer than predicted.
This is what is being refered to.

This looks to be about the most inevitable prospective tornado outbreak in a while. That negative tilt knifing in from the Pacific, plus a formidable dryline with muggy air piling in from the Gulf. Very ominous.
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Land interaction beginning to take its toll on Enawo's western side?
Source
Quoting 42. Xyrus2000:



What? I don't see anything like that, at least nothing within the window of reasonable prediction. Over the next couple of days we're getting rain. Anything beyond that this time of year are WAGs, but temps have tendency to be warmer than predicted.
They have a article on CWG and people on americanwx leaked the latest Euro snow map.
I see hints of a possible EWRC about to begin before landfall, but I can't really tell yet.

Mimic-TC Microwave (last 24 hours): Link
As of 2:00 pm EST (charts below), Enawo is firing on all cylinders; the core has moved to the South of the higher shear band just to the North and great upper level divergence with slight elongation towards the Island. Just like the models have been predicting for the past 3 days; struggling a little bit (last Friday to Saturday), and finding better conditions just before land fall. 
 


20:30 UTC Image

Dvorak

The eye has contracted a bit over the past 6 hours; the current guidance has it down to 110 knots by tomorrow morning; the lower the better for the coast but the flooding rains, as noted by Dr. Master's this morning as to the high moisture content, will be a huge issue for the Island through Thursday and Friday............This is a long term 3-4 day event for them.

Eye Probability Forecast

This product was trained on output of an infrared eye detection algorithm developed in DeMaria (2016), which has probability of detection of nearly 95% with relatively low false alarm rates. The forecasts are based on information contained in the GFS-based large scale environment, current and past storm conditions, and information derived from the latest available IR image. The table below shows factors related to eye probability forecasts. These forecasts are demonstrably skillful versus climatology (~ 11%) for all time periods and skillful versus persistence at leads times of 12h and longer, based on independent forecasts. Brier skill scores for versus persistence are -14%, 35%, 47%, 47%, and 50% at 6, 12, 18, 24 and 36h. Note two schemes were developed for 18h, and those forecast are averaged for the product and the verification statistics.
Quoting 58. Patrap:




JTWC should increase the landfall wind speeds when they issue the 8th warning later today based on current trends.
Brush fire in Picayune Strand State Forest jumps to 2,500 acres
This is S.W. Florida to the east of Naples.


Link
A pdf:

TROPICAL CYCLONE USES
OF VIIRS
GALINA CHIROKOVA1, JOHN KNAFF2
, DAN LINDSEY2
,
ROBERT DEMARIA1, MARK DEMARIA3
, AND JACK BEVEN3
(1) CIRA, COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY, FORT COLLINS, CO
(2) NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, FORT COLLINS, CO
(3) NOAA/NWS/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL



VIIRS DATA FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECASTING
2
 VIIRS data have multiple applications for TC analysis
and forecasting and can be critical for operational
forecasters.

 Important features:

1. Day Night Band: visible-like imagery at nighttime

2. IR, VIS: very high resolution of I-bands, including IR
window band (I05, 11.45 μm, 375 m resolution)

3. 3040 km swath width: no gaps between the
consecutive orbits, even at the equator
A image from my Son's phone in Paris earlier today.

Quoting 61. weathermanwannabe:



JTWC should increase the landfall wind speeds when they issue the 8th warning later today based on current trends.


It has been issued. Click to expand:

Dats a ominous track.


Quoting 65. elioe:



It has been issued. Click to expand:




Thanks; incredible...........They went up to 150 knot gusts for tomorrow from 125 this morning......Madagascar is in big trouble.
Spare a thought for those desperate migrants trying to cross from Africa in the face of weather like this.

Quoting 26. barbamz:

Island in red: now the windfield of fierce and deadly storm "Zeus" has left the mainland of France and is moving into the Mediterranean, battering Corsica:


Source for updates.
gonna be a rough day in the plains tonight.
Quoting 68. ekogaia:

Spare a thought for those desperate migrants trying to cross from Africa in the face of weather like this.

I do. Especially as this storm with huge waves is bound to head their way (Libya).
Heavy rain in Maroantsetra, NE Madagascar: Link (video published 6 h ago)
The town is without electricity since about 1830z, they report on this Twitter account.
Looks like has split in two:one with an eye open, the other not.

Live webcam image of the brush fire from the Naples Marina.
It does look in this last frame of the RAMMB loop that the eye wall is being replaced in favor of a smaller more intense eye that should emerge later this evening our time:



Down to around 250,000 people without power in France, from 600,000 around 1400z. Highest numbers since December 1999 (but back then, more than 3 million people lost power and it took 5 weeks to bring things back to normal - another category really).

Edit - from Agence France Presse:

(...) Winds gusting up to hurricane force battered west and central France on Monday, leaving two people dead and 600,000 homes without electricity, authorities said.
Storm Zeus -- named after the paramount god in Greek mythology -- hit the Atlantic coast before sweeping across to the center and southeast of the country.
Weather experts said they measured gusts of up to 193 kilometers (120 miles) per hour in the west.
The driver of a lorry carrying gas canisters was killed when a falling branch hit his vehicle in the southern French Alps, while a motorist in the southwest died when his car was struck by a 20-meter-tall tree.
Seven young people were injured in the west and southwest by falling debris, three of them seriously.
Some 600,000 properties lost electricity, according to power distributor Enedis. It was the highest such number since a monster storm in 1999 that left scores dead and three million households without power.
Pounding rain also forced the closure of a motorway into Paris, Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said in a statement. (...)
Quoting 74. weathermanwannabe:

It does look in this last frame of the RAMMB loop that the eye wall is being replaced in favor of a smaller more intense eye that should emerge later this evening our time: ...

Yes, something is happening to Enawo's eye.
Link with a current loop (I hope)
Here is the definition of an EWRC; bad news as it is happening before the storm reaches the coast tomorrow: you can see the outer rain bands closing in on the current loops.


Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.
Some streets are being shut down on the east side of Naples. The fire is only 10% contained.
Hopefully as the winds die down and the humidity goes up during the night, fire fighters will be able to contain more of the fire.

NBC2 news image
Sad to see Enawo gather strength before landfall. Huge amounts of rain likely. However, Madagascar was in quite a severe drought with hundreds of thousands facing famine, particularly in the northern part of the country. So hopefully the rains will be more beneficial than destructive!

The current windstorm affecting parts of Europe is crazy! So many high wind readings from its rampage so far. Let's hope it'll start winding down a bit.

Lastly, there's potential for some some strong/violent tornados today in the US. Hope everyone affected is prepared!

Gonna have to watch TWC tonight; Enawo on the move and the first tornado warning of the evening is up in Iowa just to the South of the Minnesota Border in that elongated cell across the borders:



You can partially blame the current weather across the Northern Tier of the US and in Europe on the jet and partially blame the current strength of Enawo on untapped very warm SST's to the South of the Equator: it all leads in the same direction at some point......................
See Yall in the am and hoping for the best for the people in US this evening and in Madagascar tomorrow:


 last3hours Reports Graphic






Zack Labe‏:
@ZLabe

Argh... not good news (high uncertainty) for the future of a consistent passive microwave satellite sea ice record: https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2017/03/anothe r-warm-month-in-the-arctic

Bill Paxton Cause of Death Revealed: Stroke After Heart Surgery

http://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/celebrity/bill-pa xton-cause-of-death-revealed-stroke-after-heart-su rgery/ar-AAnU5NI?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp
Looks like Enawo is about to make a direct hit on the town of Antalaha at the northeastern coast of Madagascar with some tenthousand inhabitants. I've checked it out and I've learned that it is also called the capital of vanilla production.

Below some videos: first a recent tourist video, second a brand new music promo of Antalaha with some pictures of the town, and the third one is in English about vanilla farming. There are more videos available, but most in French. Best wishes to the folks at the vanilla coast with Enavo!!






The eyewall cometh.

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SVR T-STORM WARNING TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN - KMPX 454 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017
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Quoting 26. barbamz:

Island in red: now the windfield of fierce and deadly storm "Zeus" has left the mainland of France and is moving into the Mediterranean, battering Corsica:


Source for updates.


The storm, that hit France particularly hard this morning, had no name at all, Zeus was already over the Balkans at that time. Some records where shattered in Camaret, 193 km/h (120 mph) (old record: 179 km/h (111 mph) from 2014) and on Ouessant (Ushant): 191 km/h (119 mph) (old record: 176 km/h (109 mph) from 1987). In Brest it was the strongest storm since 1990 and the record for March was broken: 136 km/h (85 mph) (old record: 112 km/h (70 mph) in 2008). At the Pointe du Raz, on Ouessant and on the isle of Groix, the 10 minute sustained winds reached 119 km/h (74 mph) (136 km/h (85 mph), 1 minute sustained), equivalent to an category one hurricane, according to the SSHWS.
Quoting 84. thetwilightzone:

Bill Paxton Cause of Death Revealed: Stroke After Heart Surgery

http://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/celebrity/bill-pa xton-cause-of-death-revealed-stroke-after-heart-su rgery/ar-AAnU5NI?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartandhp


"The extreme! IT'S THE EXTREME!"
Hahaha
"Why do you call Billy the extreme?...."
Warm Winds Take Aim at Chukchi as Arctic Sea Ice Volume Hits Record Lows
Temperatures over the Chukchi Sea are predicted to hit as high as 37 degrees Fahrenheit (2.9 C) on Wednesday and Thursday as a massive high pressure ridge building over Alaska pulls warm, moist Pacific air northward. These temperatures represent staggering warmth for this Arctic Ocean zone during March when temperatures are typically about 54 degrees F (30 degrees C) cooler.

Link
Quoting 88. ChateauChalon:



The storm, that hit France particularly hard this morning, had no name at all, Zeus was already over the Balkans at that time. Some records where shattered in Camaret, 193 km/h (120 mph) (old record: 179 km/h (111 mph) from 2014) and on Ouessant (Ushant): 191 km/h (119 mph) (old record: 176 km/h (109 mph) from 1987). In Brest it was the strongest storm since 1990 and the record for March was broken: 136 km/h (85 mph) (old record: 112 km/h (70 mph) in 2008). At the Pointe du Raz, on Ouessant and on the isle of Groix, the 10 minute sustained winds reached 119 km/h (74 mph) (136 km/h (85 mph), 1 minute sustained), equivalent to an category one hurricane, according to the SSHWS.


The Boys band landed in Paris this morning as that was coming in. The AA A-300 took it in stride they said. They were 4 minutes early flying in from Philly.

2300z, March 6. Source, updates: Navy/NRL-TC.
Quoting 88. ChateauChalon:

The storm, that hit France particularly hard this morning, had no name at all, Zeus was already over the Balkans at that time. ...

Yeah, I know, lol, thanks. The Meteorological Institute in Berlin (which is naming most of our European systems) overslept this one. We discussed it two blogs earlier this morning (and at this place). Nevertheless, French (social) media stuck with the name "Zeus", so the storm will be remembered under this name by many ...

Quoting 93. barbamz:


Yeah, I know, lol, thanks. The Meteorological Institute in Berlin (which is naming most of our European systems) overslept this one. We discussed it two blogs earlier this morning (and at this place). Nevertheless, French (social) media stuck with the name "Zeus", so the storm will be remembered under this name by many ...


Apparently, it evolved too fast to be named and even the french national weather service adopted the wrong name. ^^
Another interesting feature of this storm is, that it had a pretty high central pressure for a storm this strong: 992 hPa (29.29 in), normally you would expect a central pressure around or (way) under 980 hPa (about 29 in)!
Any fossil fuel lovers out there worried that the current administration might just soften its stance on climate policy needn't worry any longer; it appears that ExxonMobil is actively writing White House press releases:



Don't know about you, but *I'll* certainly sleep better tonight...
OK. Only watched the video before responding. I see the El Nino reference now down in the article, I thought the link was to the video. So...Headline...inflammatory for political and policy sake, video...fake news for same effect, and article...more complete. How many read the article?

El Nino's have happened before, and this one is worse. We'd better up the game on responding and helping, better than we have in the past.

I am glad you folks care deeply, seriously...



Quoting 22. Xandra:

Frome the previous blog...


It's not fake news. Here's an excerpt from the article by Nicholas Kristof:

"The immediate cause of the droughts was an extremely warm El Niño event, which came on top of a larger drying trend in the last few decades in parts of Africa. New research, just published in the bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, concludes that human-caused climate change exacerbated El Niño’s intensity and significantly reduced rainfall in parts of Ethiopia and southern Africa."


And from the study 15. ASSESSING THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF LOCAL AND EAST PACIFIC WARMING TO THE 2015 DROUGHTS IN ETHIOPIA AND SOUTHERN AFRICA:

"Anthropogenic warming contributed to the 2015 Ethiopian and southern African droughts by increasing El Niño SSTs and local air temperatures, causing reduced rainfall and runoff, and contributing to severe food insecurity"
Quoting 97. Neapolitan:

... it appears that ExxonMobil is actively writing White House press releases ...

Draining the swamp, lol.
Quoting 97. Neapolitan:

Any fossil fuel lovers out there worried that the current administration might just soften its stance on climate policy needn't worry any longer; it appears that ExxonMobil is actively writing White House press releases:



Don't know about you, but *I'll* certainly sleep better tonight...


Real earnings are up 2.5% off the 2009 lows, The Dow is up 210%
In the latest frame Enawo's eye unfortunately looks healthy again, maybe even strengthening? Link.
Loop
@98. DFWdad

What was fake in the video?


Many rivers and wells have dried up in southern Madagascar, forcing people to buy water that is trucked in. Credit Nicholas Kristof/The New York Times
Image source
Some good news in regards to the UK's carbon emissions:

Coal collapse drives down UK carbon emissions

A collapse in the use of coal has driven UK carbon emissions down to levels barely seen since the Victorian era, new figures show.

Coal use fell by a record 52% in 2016 on the previous year in the face of cheap gas, higher domestic carbon prices, renewables and other factors.

Carbon emissions in 2016 reached 381 millions of tonnes (Mt) of CO2. With the exception of sharp dips caused by general strikes in the 1920s, this represents the lowest level since 1894, when Nicholas II became Tsar of Russia.


Full article here.

Good to see carbon emissions continue to steadily decline in the UK. Hopefully the government will put in place measures to reduce pollution in big cities as well.

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

857 mb before landfall? The GFS clearly has some issues with taking its pressures too low with intense TCs...
I'm finding this very hard to believe.We need precipitation but not that heavy yucky pasty type snow.
NOAA’s satellites are on the chopping block. Here's why we need them.

Our eyes in the sky are facing budget cuts

[...]

Here are 14 things that NOAA’s satellites help monitor, from agriculture to baseball.

[...]


Lightning as monitored by NOAA's latest satellite, GOES-16.

[...]
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 07/03/2017
AT 0000 UTC.


Excerpt:

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (ENAWO) 936 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 51.5 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, UP TO 120 NM
TO THE NORTHERN SEMI-CERCLE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.


Discussion
Quoting 97. Neapolitan:

Any fossil fuel lovers out there worried that the current administration might just soften its stance on climate policy needn't worry any longer; it appears that ExxonMobil is actively writing White House press releases:



Don't know about you, but *I'll* certainly sleep better tonight...
Jobs
Old English word of the day: gærs-grēne - grass-green. Pronounced "garz-gray-neh"

Image source: Gallacian manuscript, Latin 1156 B, fol. 4R, Bibliothèque nationale de France, 1354 AD.


Mount Diablo (3800 ft), east of SF Bay, this AM following cold showers overnight.
Quoting 107. washingtonian115:

I'm finding this very hard to believe.We need precipitation but not that heavy yucky pasty type snow.
I don't believe it at all ;) However, it could be just the thing to trap Nathan at Millersville for Spring Break ;) **Shut up Brian!!**

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SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 904 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 901 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 901 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017
TORNADO WARNING     KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 858 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 66
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
850 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Iowa
Western Illinois
Eastern Missouri

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 850 PM
until 400 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible

SUMMARY...A fast-moving squall line will further accelerate
east-northeastward through the late evening and overnight hours,
posing a damaging wind and tornado risk across eastern portions of
Iowa and Missouri into western Illinois.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 15 miles east northeast of Dubuque IA
to 55 miles southwest of Farmington MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Those storms blew through Kansas City area dropping tornadoes. It now looks like it may be a derecho or at least a very very long line of high wind storms.

Thankfully I was in an area that didnt see a tornado but south and north of KC proper sure did.
Link

Squall line
Quoting 114. BaltimoreBrian:

I don't believe it at all ;) However, it could be just the thing to trap Nathan at Millersville for Spring Break ;)




Not likely. The Friday storm (when my break starts) is tiny, and the second storm looks to have greater potential for you guys than for me, although we still get a good snow. Everyone on campus thought winter was over, lol.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
919 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
 
* UNTIL 1015 PM CST  
 
* AT 919 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR APPLETON  
CITY, OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE  
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES,  
ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
POMME DE TERRE LAKE... TRUMAN LAKE...  
TRUMAN STATE PARK... POMME DE TERRE STATE PARK...  
WARSAW... PITTSBURG...  
LINCOLN... APPLETON CITY...  
COLE CAMP... OSCEOLA...  
LOWRY CITY... HERMITAGE...  
WEAUBLEAU... WHEATLAND...  
PRESTON... CROSS TIMBERS...  
COLLINS... ROSCOE...  
IONIA... VISTA...  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD  
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY  
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST FOR CENTRAL,  
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
 
LAT...LON 3790 9307 3790 9318 3780 9319 3783 9381  
3789 9381 3790 9407 3821 9405 3821 9353  
3851 9351 3851 9330 3853 9329 3853 9307  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 264DEG 50KT 3819 9396  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...70MPH  
 
 
 
FRYE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


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Enawo at sunrise, about to make landfall. Source, updates: Navy/NRL-TC.
Quoting 121. Patrap:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
919 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
HICKORY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
BENTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  
 
* UNTIL 1015 PM CST  
 
* AT 919 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR APPLETON  
CITY, OR 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON, MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE  
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES,  
ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
POMME DE TERRE LAKE... TRUMAN LAKE...  
TRUMAN STATE PARK... POMME DE TERRE STATE PARK...  
WARSAW... PITTSBURG...  
LINCOLN... APPLETON CITY...  
COLE CAMP... OSCEOLA...  
LOWRY CITY... HERMITAGE...  
WEAUBLEAU... WHEATLAND...  
PRESTON... CROSS TIMBERS...  
COLLINS... ROSCOE...  
IONIA... VISTA...  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD  
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY  
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!  
 
 
 
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CST FOR CENTRAL,  
SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
 
LAT...LON 3790 9307 3790 9318 3780 9319 3783 9381  
3789 9381 3790 9407 3821 9405 3821 9353  
3851 9351 3851 9330 3853 9329 3853 9307  
TIME...MOT...LOC 0319Z 264DEG 50KT 3819 9396  
 
HAIL...1.00IN  
WIND...70MPH  
 
 
 
FRYE  
 
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Thanks, Patrap!

My Dad just texted from Columbia, Mo that they are taking cover. Any info you or anyone else can provide is greatly appreciated!
Quoting 123. RedwoodCoast:


Thanks, Patrap!

My Dad just texted from Columbia, Mo that they are taking cover. Any info you or anyone else can provide is greatly appreciated!

OK, Dad called and is safe. He's got a good bunker to survive in, but there was no trouble in his neighborhood. I hope everyone else in the are fared as well.
Add another 25+ tornadoes to the count after this evening/tonight.

And it looks like another severe weather outbreak is coming for the weekend.
Quoting 106. HurricaneFan:

857 mb before landfall? The GFS clearly has some issues with taking its pressures too low with intense TCs...



857 mb? That would be a record if it rang true.
Vortex (ENAWO) over southwestern Indian Ocean near Madagascar centered near 14.6S 51.0E

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5


RSMC New Delhi satellite bulletin description for 0830 AM IST
Saw the girl that took this pic in Lely Estates around 4:30 today.

Link

My pic where I was working today.





Quoting 78. Sfloridacat5:

Some streets are being shut down on the east side of Naples. The fire is only 10% contained.
Hopefully as the winds die down and the humidity goes up during the night, fire fighters will be able to contain more of the fire.

NBC2 news image


COLLIER COUNTY, Fla. -
Due to the wildfire in the Picayune Strand State Park, authorities have shut down Collier Boulevard.

Additionally, the county set up an emergency hotline number for those who have questions about the wildfire threat in eastern Collier County 239-252-8444 or dial 311 in Collier County only.

Collier County issued a wildfire alert Monday afternoon as only 10 percent of the 3,500-acre fire has been contained.

No evacuation orders have been given at this time.
129. elioe
Quoting 106. HurricaneFan:

857 mb before landfall? The GFS clearly has some issues with taking its pressures too low with intense TCs...



Note that the plot shows "surface pressure", not MSLP. And the 857 mbar low is not shown in the center of the storm. Such glitches happen often. But now, the actual MSLP plot has approximately as good resolution as the surface pressure plot. And it showed 916 mbar at the same time as your pic.
130. elioe
Bulletin du 07 mars à 10H30 locales Réunion:
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ENAWO.
Pression estimée au centre: 925 HPA.
Position le 07 mars à 10 heures locales Réunion: 14.7 Sud / 50.6 Est. (That's 06Z)

And moving west at 15 km/h. At this rate, landfall will occur some 15 miles NNW of Antalaha at approximately 0840Z.


Severe weather threat for today. Coming into Dixie Alley. Let's see what happens.
Quoting 125. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Add another 25+ tornadoes to the count after this evening/tonight.

And it looks like another severe weather outbreak is coming for the weekend.
Crazy isn't it Cody. What do you think will happen on this weekend.
Enawo is landfalling a bit north of Antalaha, with this town in the worst part of its eyewall. Poor folks!

Landfall loop (visible high-res):
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/763e8e88eda5c 69498fe3cec8c292da3/satellit-hd-15min.html#play

The same with cloud top temps:
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/763e8e88eda5c 69498fe3cec8c292da3/top-alarm-15min.html#play




This video is claimed to be from Antalaha earlier this morning.
Quoting 135. Uragani:



Nice loop! This vortex, currently over the Adriatic Sea in the Mediterranean, which caused the strong windstorm over large parts of France yesterday and was somehow erroneously called "Zeus" by the media, has now got its proper name, see the current discussion of Estofex:

SYNOPSIS
A large mid/upper-air trough extends from NE Atlantic all the way down to central Mediterranean basin, and an embedded short-wave trough over NW Italy is progressively moving SE, over the Mediterranean Sea, where we expect to separate from the mean flow and become a large cold pool. This cold bubble will be the steering mechanism of a low level cyclonic vortex, currently located in N Italy. This cyclone (National Observatory of Greece named it "Galateia") is expected to deepen the following hours and high resolution NWP models based on ECMWF, forecast a center of 993 hPa on Tuesday.


Current pressure of Galateia. Source.
Short video from Sambava, north of Enawo's landfalling eye (pic.twitter.com link):

Another video:

More videos here:
https://blogdemadagascar.com/category/actualite/


Source:
Storm so-called "Zeus" (now Galateia) dumped a lot of fresh snow into the French Alps yesterday! Saw some videos with blizzard conditions.
Someone forgot to close a window in a restroom in Tignes (or it got broken). So-called "Zeus" took the chance!


07.03.2017: Les toilettes du restaurant panoramique de Tignes sous la neige apres la tempete!

A ski piste was hit by an avalanche in Tignes earlier this morning, but fortunately no victims according to latest news.
Good Morning; I was afraid to pull up the loops this morning to see how strong Enawo was upon land fall. Looking like a worst case scenario for the Northern half of the Island as the storm moves down long with the flooding and mud slide threat for several days:

And the track into Friday morning is taking the storm just to the left of where the mountain ranges are located:



Image result for madagascar mountains map
The land (mountain) interaction is already starting to disrupt the core circulation and start the ramp-down process but all of those rains are going to get squeezed out, pretty much dead-center, over the Island. At least there will not be as much wind damage inland as wind speeds start to fall. According to some of the Wiki stuff I read on the Island, some of those mountains in the Northern half of the Island have elevations around 9,000 ft which should ramp down the lower level circulation relatively quickly over the next 24 hours.
Almost a perfect storm (Cat 4?) on final approach this morning at 2:00 am; and kudos to the model showing this possibility out about 8 days ago that some folks were posting............A remarkable forecast that actually verified for that particular model (I think it was the Euro).


Quoting 144. weathermanwannabe:

The land (mountain) interaction is already starting to disrupt the core circulation and start the ramp-down process but all of those rains are going to get squeezed out, pretty much dead-center, over the Island. At least there will not be as much wind damage inland as wind speeds start to fall.

Satellite loops may be deceiving, but I get the impression that since landfall three hours ago the eye is barely moving inland but hugging the coast southwards, sitting on top of poor Antalaha (btw, according to Twitter, Antalaha is cut off from communication which is no surprise):
https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/madagaskar/to p-alarm-15min.html#play
Edit close-up: https://kachelmannwetter.com/de/sat/08f8f9502aef1 dfff86418553a8dabc2/top-alarm-15min.html#play

Officially it's moving west though (but very slowly):

-------------------------------

Edit: This video (pic.twitter.com) shows how strongly Enawo was wobbling when it approached Antalaha:

And Enawo veered off its supposed track to the north:

Click to enlarge. Source.
Here is a track for the storm pulled from the Meteo France site:

Carte cyclone ENAWO

WTIO30 FMEE 071308 RRB
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION


Excerpt:

ENAWO MADE LANDFALL AROUND 09:30-09:45 UTC EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER AGAIN ANOTHER NORTHWARDS BEND ON ITS GENERALLY WESTWARDS TRACK.
THE CENTER FINALLY CROOS THE COAST IN-BETWEEN ANTALAHA AND SAMBAVA
(NEAR AMBODIPONT-SAHANA) WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT 110 KT.
There may have been a tornado in Minnesota yesterday. If so, earliest on record. Chanhassen is inspecting today.
All post analysis for the 2016 Hurricane season is complete, except for Hurricane Matthew.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/
In terms of the bigger picture for Enawo, and the clockwise circulation, that is a lot of moisture to the East of the Island is going to get drawn in over the next 24-48 hours:



The storm behind Enawo (97S) is also headed in the general direction of Madagascar in the long term; hopefully it will not add insult to injury if it makes it to the Island intact:



Carte cyclone 07-20162017

153. elioe
Quoting 152. weathermanwannabe:

The storm behind Enawo (97S) is also headed in the general direction of Madagascar in the long term; hopefully it will not add insult to injury if it makes it to the Island intact:


Latest HWRF has this scenario of 97S hitting Mauritius with central pressure of 932 mbar.



Next name on the list is Fernando.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 119. Astrometeor:



Not likely. The Friday storm (when my break starts) is tiny, and the second storm looks to have greater potential for you guys than for me, although we still get a good snow. Everyone on campus thought winter was over, lol.


They should know better. Winter in East Central PA isn't over till early April. I saw snow in Princeton NJ April 6, 1982 (winter storm 6"+ dry powdery windblown high 28F with full sun the day after), April 19, 1983 (half inch accumulated on roads but generally slop) and sometime in late April 1984.

Graduate study at FSU started in August 1984 :-)
Quoting 72. Uragani:

Looks like has split in two:one with an eye open, the other not.


Cyclone or Cyclops??