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Glacial Pace for Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Season; Tornado Threat in Midwest

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 5:06 PM GMT on February 28, 2017

From Antananarivo to Darwin to Suva, an odd tranquility has filled the heart of the Southern Hemisphere’s tropical cyclone season. In a turn of events that’s mystified even the experts, hurricane-strength cyclones have been virtually absent since July from the entire Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean south of the equator. (Tropical cyclones are quite rare over the Atlantic Ocean south of the equator, though they do occur.)

In much the same way as the Northern Hemisphere hurricane and typhoon seasons normally hit a peak in late summer, the Southern Hemisphere’s cyclone season is usually reaching a crescendo by late February. This year, it’s been more like crickets than a crescendo. Total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) across the Southern Hemisphere since July 1 was just 14% of average as of February 26, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University). “The S. Hemisphere still hasn't gotten the memo that their hurricane season is well underway,” tweeted Klotzbach on Sunday.


Figure 1. Tropical cyclone activity for the Southern Hemisphere during the period July 1, 2016, to February 27, 2017. Shown in parentheses is the climatological activity one would expect from July 1 to Feb. 27, based on statistics for the period 1981 through 2010. Image credit: Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University.

A well-distributed quiet spell
One of the most striking aspects of this quiet southern season is how extensive it is. In the Northern Hemisphere, El Niño or La Niña will favor rising motion in one basin and sinking motion in another. This tends to make the North Atlantic active while the Northeast Pacific is less so, and vice versa. There hasn’t been any such trade-off across the Southern Hemisphere in recent months: it’s been calmer than usual across the board. The South Pacific east of longitude 135°E has been especially tranquil, with only 2.25 named storm days since last July as opposed to an average of 26.2 named storm days by this point. There may still be time for the Southwest Pacific to catch up: the latter half of the season tends to be especially active over this region, as noted in this extensive climatology of the region’s tropical cyclones, published in 2013 in the Journal of Climate.

Another factor in play: the large-scale rising motion needed for sustained tropical cyclone action has been in the wrong places. Over the last three months, the strongest areas of rising motion across the southern tropics and subtropics have been located over land--across southern Africa and western Australia. Meanwhile, downward motion at these latitudes has predominated across the South Indian and Southwest Pacific Oceans (see Figure 2), where most of the hemisphere’s tropical cyclones develop. “A good way to kill a tropical cyclone season is to have upward motion over land!” noted Klotzbach in an email.


Figure 2. Departures from average in long-wave radiation averaged over the three-month period from Nov. 29, 2016, through Feb. 26, 2017. OLR anomalies show where high, cold clouds associated with thunderstorms are most prevalent. Areas in blue correspond with frequent thunderstorms and rising motion; orange is correlated with calmer weather and sinking motion. Many of the areas where tropical cyclones tend to form in the Southern Hemisphere have been dominated by sinking air over the past three months. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL/PSD Map Room


Figure 3. In a typical Southern Hemisphere cyclone season (black trace), more than half of the total accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the July-through-June period has already been racked up by February 26. This season (blue trace) has mustered less than 10% of the final seasonal total, or only about 14% of the season-to-date average. Image credit: Phil Klotzbach, @philklotzbach.


Figure 4. Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Dineo making landfall in Mozambique at 11:15 UTC February 15, 2017. Image credit: NASA.

The only Southern Hemisphere storm to make landfall thus far in 2017 has been Tropical Cyclone Dineo, which hit southern Mozambique on February 15 as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds. At least seven people were killed and over 20,000 homes were destroyed. Dineo dumped approximately 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path, and caused widespread flooding in Zimbabwe. Hurricane-force tropical cyclones are not that common in Mozambique; since 1990, there have been nine cyclones of Category 1 or higher intensity (including Dineo) to hit, with February and March being the most common months for landfall. The strongest cyclone in Mozambique history was Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Eline, which hit the country on February 22, 2000. The most recent hurricane-force storm was on March 11, 2008--Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Jokwe.

Plenty of water in Australia, despite no landfalling cyclones
This is the first year in modern records that Australia has made it from July all the way to the beginning of March without at least one tropical cyclone making landfall. The previous record was held by Tropical Cyclone Charlie, Australia’s first landfall of the 1987-88 season. Charlie came ashore on Feb. 29, 1988, just southeast of Townsville. Official records date back to 1969-70, and it appears that Australia has seen at least one landfall in every year since 1945. Only last week, Tropical Cyclone Alfred developed in the Gulf of Carpentaria just off Australia’s northern coast on Feb. 19, but it quickly dissipated to a remnant low.

“There are several theories we are wanting to test as to why this season has been so benign,” said Andrew Watkins (Australia Bureau of Meteorology) in an email. “Especially given that we started with warm waters around Australia and weak cool conditions [La Niña] in the tropical Pacific, that should have pushed us toward an average to above-average tropical cyclone season. We are all intrigued by this one.”

In spite of tropical cyclones having gone missing, there’s been significant flooding across Australia over the last several months, consistent with the upward motion over the continent indicated in Figure 2. The monsoonal trough that normally sits offshore has moved onto land at times, and at least two large but weak “landphoon”-type systems have tracked into the continent, bringing light winds but extremely heavy rain. One of these systems tracked southward through interior Western Australia in late December. The resulting floods triggered the closure of the iconic, typically bone-dry Uluṟu-Kata Tjuṯa National Park on Christmas Day (see image at bottom) and contributed to record monthly rains of 14.7” at the town of Kintore, most of it falling in just two days (see this BOM report). Several outback locations notched all-time records for precipitable water (the amount of moisture in a column above the surface) and monthly records for daily rainfall.


Figure 5 WU depiction of the outlook for severe weather issued at 10:30 am CST Tuesday, February 28, 2017, by NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. Parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky have been upgraded to moderate risk, which is actually the second-highest of five risk categories.

Strong tornadoes possible across mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Tuesday
A broad area from northern Arkansas and southeast Missouri to western Indiana will be on the lookout for potentially tornadic supercell thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon and evening. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center placed the heart of this region under a moderate risk of severe weather at 10:30 am CST Tuesday, an upgrade from the enhanced risk in place earlier in the day. Hourly runs of the HRRR mesoscale model on Tuesday morning indicated that several rounds of severe storms could be rolling through Missouri and into Illinois from about 4 PM CST onward. Although the strongest cells may be widely dispersed, this could allow one or more of them to organize into sustained supercells, given the available instability and wind shear. “A few strong tornadoes are possible, especially if discrete structures evolve as it appears they may,” noted SPC in an outlook early Tuesday. Very large hail is also a good bet with any supercells that form. The highest tornado probabilities extend near and north of the Ohio River from southeast Missouri to southeast Indiana, but significant tornadoes (F2 or greater) are possible even after dark as far afield as northern Illinois and far western Ohio.

By late Tuesday night, the storms should eventually congeal into a wind-packing squall line (with a risk of embedded tornadoes) moving across parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee. More severe weather--especially high wind--is possible on Wednesday as a cold front pushes the squall line toward the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic/Northeast.

SPC has also outlined an "Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area" across eastern NM, western TX, the TX Panhandle, and far western OK for Tuesday afternoon, when a corridor of 30 - 45 mph sustained southwesterly winds with gusts to 55 - 65 mph is expected to materialize. Relative humidities in the 8 - 13 percent range in tandem with very dry vegetation will create extremely critical fire concerns, characterized by very rapid and erratic fire spread behavior.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters



The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I was wondering about the tranquil Southern Hemisphere as well. Thank you both for your inputs!
Thanks for lunch time read
Is there any reason to think that this lack of activity in the Southern Hemisphere could impact the season in the Northern Hemisphere? Also, with all that accumulated heat energy, is there a possibility that there could be a late season burst of extreme hurricanes?
Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:

riverrat544, I've never been to the Willamette Valley, but I hear it is beautiful.

It is beautiful here but if I want spectacular scenery I go to the Oregon coast or as someone suggested the Columbia River Gorge or up in the Cascade Mountains.


Oregon coast near Boardman State Park


Columbia River Gorge near Crown Point
Thanks for the fascinating read on the Southern Hemisphere tropical storm drought this year; as tropical storms are natures way of distributing excess heat from the equatorial regions, lets hope that this does not translate into extremely active, and powerful, seasons for the Atlantic, E-Pacific, and West Pacific during our Summer in the Northern Hemisphere.

In terms of the severe weather threat this afternoon and evening, the only reports coming in so far are four hail reports on the edge of Lake Michigan:


last3hours Reports Graphic
Click image for today's complete Day 1 convective outlook, signed by SPC's Dr. Ariel Cohen.


I hate that I'm flashing back to being at the National Severe Weather Workshop, March 2, 2012* - the final stand-alone workshop hosted by SPC, that year themed around the fanatic weather of 2011. We all flipped on our "devices" at break time and helplessly watched radar and storm reports across the same area that's at risk today. Hope today is not that kind of day for them.

Actually, the severe started on Feb 28 during that week five years ago. Flip backwards by date at that link to see details.

From my view in "the middle," I don't see the weather heating up today as it was forecast to.

*SPC weather event review
And here are the current images for the South Pacific and Indian Ocean: zilch at the moment in spite of very warm SST's.







If the tropical cyclones don't take the heat out, its only got one option and that's to stay in the water. This could lead to all sorts of problems with sea temperature rise leading to more die off's and more fish migrations outside the normal anomalies we must of course get.

Probably a lot more worrying than at first it seems to be, as with the amount of heat in the water staying there into the next year, plus being added too from not only solar energy but also CO2 blanketing, then things are on their way to being interesting in the next year or so.
Then again the Antarctic ice is still melting along at record rates of loss. Way down on the graph now.

I have noticed that we seem to not have had many North Pacific storms this last few months after the recent records. I have no figures to post but the whole area seems far too quiet.
Possibly the calms before the storms?
If we do get another El Nino this year, on top of the current SSTs, the coral bleaching event this year might put a few more nails in the coffin of several tropical reef areas in the Caribbean and Western Pacific.  
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks region to
the Ohio Valley late this afternoon into tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Indiana
Western and northern Kentucky
Southern and eastern Missouri
Illinois
Northern Arkansas
Northwest Tennessee
Far western Ohio

* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
Scattered damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of
the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through tonight.
Strong tornadoes will be possible, especially across portions of
the lower and middle Ohio Valley. Otherwise, large hail and
damaging winds are expected.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Cohen.. 02/28/2017


Quoting 12. Tropicsweatherpr:

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks region to
the Ohio Valley late this afternoon into tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
Indiana
Western and northern Kentucky
Southern and eastern Missouri
Illinois
Northern Arkansas
Northwest Tennessee
Far western Ohio

* HAZARDS...
Several tornadoes, a few intense
Widespread large hail, some baseball size
Scattered damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop from portions of
the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley through tonight.
Strong tornadoes will be possible, especially across portions of
the lower and middle Ohio Valley. Otherwise, large hail and
damaging winds are expected.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Cohen.. 02/28/2017





And I'm deep inside the moderate risk.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022- MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-010100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JO HNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY -VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-M CCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIG G-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCL EAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MOUNT VERNON, FAIRFIELD, ALBION,
MOUNT CARMEL, PINCKNEYVILLE, WEST FRANKFORT, MCLEANSBORO, CARMI,
CARBONDALE, MURPHYSBORO, HERRIN, HARRISBURG, SHAWNEETOWN,
JONESBORO, VIENNA, GOLCONDA, ELIZABETHTOWN, CAIRO, MOUND CITY,
METROPOLIS, FORT BRANCH, PETERSBURG, POSEYVILLE, EVANSVILLE,
BOONVILLE, ROCKPORT, HICKMAN, CLINTON, BARDWELL, WICKLIFFE,
PADUCAH, MAYFIELD, SMITHLAND, BENTON, MURRAY, MARION, EDDYVILLE,
CADIZ, PRINCETON, MORGANFIELD, DIXON, MADISONVILLE, HOPKINSVILLE,
HENDERSON, OWENSBORO, CALHOUN, GREENVILLE, ELKTON, PERRYVILLE,
MARBLE HILL, CAPE GIRARDEAU, JACKSON, PIEDMONT, VAN BUREN,
DONIPHAN, POPLAR BLUFF, BLOOMFIELD, SIKESTON, CHARLESTON,
AND NEW MADRID
1155 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

...Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Tonight...

The potential exists for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes tonight into early Wednesday. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are likely to develop across southeast Missouri very
late this afternoon and this evening, then overspread the
remainder of our region tonight. The potential exists for
supercell thunderstorms capable of producing strong tornadoes,
very large hail, and damaging winds. Very heavy rainfall could
result in localized flash flooding.
Hope everyone in the area of severe weather stays safe tonight! It looks like this year is much more active than the last few years in regards to tornadoes so far. Still a couple of months until the peak of the season in May.
CFSv2 nearing 2C across Nino 3.4 come the end of October potentially.

Gentlemen:

I am a researcher (50 years). I think what is needed is specific data... One person to come forward with what agency is involved... Airfields used... Types and number of aircraft used...Pictures or description of spray tanks used on aircraft...Types of chemicals used...Schedules of time and location of activity... With all or part of this information the veracity will be compelling to all open minds... Good Luck...
Official temperature at 2:10 pm was 88 degrees here in Fort Myers (Page Field - official reporting station).
Quoting 17. Sfloridacat5:

Official temperature at 2:10 pm was 88 degrees here in Fort Myers (Page Field - official reporting station).

Punta Gorda looks to be the hottest of the major stations, with an 89 at 2:00. See if anyone can hit 90 at 3:00...
To those that knew him, Robert Alban has passed.

Listing the names of companies and organizations that have researched ways to make it rain as proof that there's a great global conspiracy to fly jets around controlling entire populations is like presenting a restaurant menu as the only proof you need that the head chef is out to poison you with his bouillabaisse.

Please stop.
Thanks for the very interesting blog post! However, the video of the toppled car is not from Cyclone Dineo but from Cyclone Vardah which hit India in December. See this video.

Quoting 25. Carnivorous:

Thanks for the very interesting blog post! However, the video of the toppled car is not from Cyclone Dineo but from Cyclone Vardah which hit India in December. See this video.




I was wondering about that video! Thanks for the tip, I have removed it from the post.

Jeff Masters

Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern IL...northern IN...southeast IA...extreme northeast MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 282003Z - 282230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-thunderstorm potential, including the risk for tornadoes, severe hail (possibly significant), and damaging wind gusts. The issuance of a Tornado Watch will likely be required during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...A northwest-southeast-oriented warm front extending from surface low pressure in northeastern IA to southern IN will continue to develop northeastward, as the leading edge of a high-level speed maximum also spreads northeastward. Recent water vapor imagery indicates a notable surge of midlevel drying advancing through central IA, likely associated with an impulse embedded within the flow aloft. As forcing for ascent associated with these features continues to overspread the northeastward-developing warm sector (where modest pressure falls are observed), convection should increase in coverage/intensity during the next several hours. Already, isolated elevated convection has been intensifying northeast of the warm front in east-central IL, with additional convection increasing in the open warm sector across south-central IA.

Despite the return of only modest boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the middle 50s to around 60F), steep midlevel lapse rates associated with a well-established elevated mixed layer overlying the area will support sufficient buoyancy for intense updrafts. With 40-60 kt of effective shear, rotating updrafts will likely be capable of producing severe hail -- possibly significant. Damaging wind gusts and tornado potential will exist, especially near and south/southwest of the warm front, where effective inflow layers will extend to the surface. Significant tornadoes could even occur owing to ample streamwise vorticity in the boundary layer (effective SRH around 200-400 m2/s2), and especially in proximity to the warm front given pre-existing vertical vorticity.

There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the more robust increase of surface-based convective risk. Regardless, the risk for all severe hazards will be increasing, likely warranting Tornado Watch issuance during the next few hours.

..Cohen/Hart.. 02/28/2017
Thank You Gentlemen....
Tornado Watch up for AR IL and MO. Click image for details.
It seems counterintuitive but tropical cyclones are actually not a large term in the global heat budget and their absence is not going to result in an extreme buildup of heat.

But other processes (AGW) are doing that.
JTWC declared an invest over the past few hours: looks like the system the models suggested headed towards Madagascar but still several days out.


MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/282000ZFEB-011800ZMAR2017//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.3S 69.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 208 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.
281410Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS VERY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF AN ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE BEING
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 27C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH INTENSIFICATION LIKELY
WITHIN 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND UNFAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).
NNNN

Quoting 21. Neapolitan:

Punta Gorda looks to be the hottest of the major stations, with an 89 at 2:00. See if anyone can hit 90 at 3:00...


Tampa Vandenburg Airport hit 90 earlier today, and also hit 90 yesterday.
Shell's 1991 warning: climate changing "at faster rate than at any time since end of ice age"

Climate change "at a rate faster than at any time since the end of the ice age - change too fast perhaps for life to adapt, without severe dislocation". That was the startling warning issued by the oil giant Shell more than a quarter of a century ago.

The company's farsighted 1991 film, titled Climate of Concern, set out with crystal clarity how the world was warming and that serious consequences could well result.

The film was made for public viewing, particularly in schools and universities, but is believed to have been unseen for many years. It was remarkably prescient, according to Prof Tom Wigley, who was head of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia when it helped Shell with the 1991 film.

"It is amazing it is 25 years ago. Incredible," he said. "It was quite comprehensive on what might happen, what the consequences are, and what we can do about it. I mean, there's not much more".  He said the predictions for temperature and sea level rises in the 1991 film were "pretty good compared with current understanding".

Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:

It seems counterintuitive but tropical cyclones are actually not a large term in the global heat budget and their absence is not going to result in an extreme buildup of heat.

But other processes (AGW) are doing that.

Every little helps, or hinders, depending on your personal point of view.
Meanwhile the more heat that gets in and cant get out, the more long term problems there is going to be.
A tad off topic, but amazing rain totals for San Diego County in Soo Cal from the last storm especially from upslope flow from the SW/W into the hills and mountains. Im thinking our brown color on the drought chart will lessen.

Link

FYI-------- 4.46" at mi casa!



if i could have any job title pretty sure this would be in the top 3 :)

Director of Meteorology

where is comment 37-51
Quoting 36. HurricaneHunterJoe:

A tad off topic, but amazing rain totals for San Diego County in Soo Cal from the last storm especially from upslope flow from the SW/W into the hills and mountains. Im thinking our brown color on the drought chart will lessen.

Link

FYI-------- 4.46" at mi casa!






Did this catch everyone by surprise? A few days prior I believe this was forecast to be a minimal storm - then came the deluge. Granted it was confined to a relatively small area of real estate.
Chemtrail conspiracists have a lot in common with climate change deniers, even beyond the lack of evidence for their ideas.

It's well known that we're exposed to all kinds of chemicals that we didn't evolve with: pesticides, flame retardants, nanoparticles from fossil fuel burning, second-hand medicines in drinking water, etc. Someone who actually cares about this problem could pressure politicians to tighten up environmental laws, and CHANGE his/her own way of life to reduce air and water pollution.

The idea of altering a lifestyle is just too intimidating for some people. It's easier to throw a snowball in Congress or point to contrails in the sky.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
402 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

The National Weather Service in the Quad Cities has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Central Whiteside County in northwestern Illinois...
Southeastern Clinton County in east central Iowa...

* Until 500 PM CST

* At 402 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located over Camanche, or
near Clinton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* The tornado will be near...
Albany around 410 PM CST.
Clinton, Fulton, Garden Plain and East Clinton around 415 PM CST.
Morrison around 430 PM CST.
Coleta and Emerson around 440 PM CST.
Rock Falls around 445 PM CST.
Sterling around 450 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Rock
Creek Marina and Campground, Yeoward Addition, Whiteside County
Airport, Galt, Folletts, Penrose, Round Grove, Malvern, Ustick and
Como.
Quoting 52. 3SeaHorses:

if i could have any job title pretty sure this would be in the top 3 :)

Director of Meteorology

where is comment 37-51
My 2 (38 & 46) had to do w/ the severe weather threat for SC IL, so I doubt they got censored w/ your monomania though 55), unless mass flagging. Save it for when severe weather is not threatening, better yet, take it to some tin foil hat site
Insane Lady Yells at Clouds and Sprays Vinegar at the Sky


"...the iconic video of that insane lady in Utah spraying her backyard with vinegar to rid the sky of "chemtrails" and making her son videotape the occasion as proof for the internet. The lady truly believes that spraying vinegar at the sky will magically ascend 35,000 feet to dissipate some clouds she doesn't like."

How sparse is upper air data and radiosonde data in the South Indian and South Pacific oceans? I bet it is a lot sparser than the North Atlantic.
Quoting 52. 3SeaHorses:

if i could have any job title pretty sure this would be in the top 3 :)

Director of Meteorology

where is comment 37-51


Poof and the +'s on the Post went from 20 when I +'ed it to now 5
Quoting 59. no1der:

Insane Lady Yells at Clouds and Sprays Vinegar at the Sky


"...the iconic video of that insane lady in Utah spraying her backyard with vinegar to rid the sky of "chemtrails" and making her son videotape the occasion as proof for the internet. The lady truly believes that spraying vinegar at the sky will magically ascend 35,000 feet to dissipate some clouds she doesn't like."




I feel sorry for the boy filming.
Quoting 61. PedleyCA:



Poof and the +'s on the Post went from 20 when I +'ed it to now 5


The same thing happened to Dr Masters blog
18z GFS woke up on the current invest and brings it east of Mauritius.

65. EmsiNasklug




surface map from Mauritius Meteorological Services from 1200PM UTC.

southwest of Diego Garcia
east of Agalega
The Euro is taking out the hammer. We might see a Cat5 there.


Quoting 63. SunnyDaysFla:



The same thing happened to Dr Masters blog
It may have happened because he edited the posting -- perhaps that resets the comments as though it was a new post. I think his reply to the comment about the video was in the deleted block.
Robert Scribbler:
With New El Nino Predicted, 3rd Hottest January on Record May be Cool Mark for 2017


With a weak La Nina fading, a weak to moderate El Nino apparently on the way, and with atmospheric greenhouse gasses at record high levels, it appears that 2017 temperatures will range close to the record global warmth that occurred during 2016. Image source: NASA.
Eric Fisher:
@ericfisher

Multiple #Tornado Warnings out just south of #Chicago right now. Unreal for February. #wbz

My comment was just deleted. Wunderground needs to use a better system for this, lol.

The KLOT radar seems to be down. It looks like a cell just passed directly over it as well - hopefully it's not damaged or anything. Looks like we'll be relying on KILX and TORD for the rest of these storms.


The tornado warned cell in Illinois, from Cory Marshall's stream on http://www.severestudios.com/livechase/. Unsure whether there's a tornado on the ground, but the supercell is spectacular.
Quoting 63. SunnyDaysFla:



The same thing happened to Dr Masters blog


Oh, that was what I was commenting about ...lol
Looks like my comment was deleted too? Was it due to embeding tweets? Or a blog hole opened up? Or is there an auto-filter/bot now? I've seen it happen a few times over the last few months. Quite annoying!

Looks dangerous out there. Already been quite a few tornadoes and looks like there's a lot more to come. Hopefully no loss of life after all is over!
Massive Permafrost Thaw Documented in Canada, Portends Huge Carbon Release

Huge slabs of Arctic permafrost in northwest Canada are slumping and disintegrating, sending large amounts of carbon-rich mud and silt into streams and rivers. A new study that analyzed nearly a half-million square miles in northwest Canada found that this permafrost decay is affecting 52,000 square miles of that vast stretch of earth—an expanse the size of Alabama.

According to researchers with the Northwest Territories Geological Survey, the permafrost collapse is intensifying and causing landslides into rivers and lakes that can choke off life downstream, all the way to where the rivers discharge into the Pacific Ocean.


Link
Quoting 73. EyewallPaul:

-snip-


It's nice to hear a sane opinion on chemtrails here. While I'm sure your observations are true, I think your conclusion is kind of a reach - those planes could be anything -- research planes, for example. Contrails move, by the way - they're subject to wind patterns like any cloud. Contrails from miles away could easily blow over areas without flights. While I respect your views, we really can't let gut feelings and speculation get in the way of scientific fact - it'd be interesting to know what exactly the planes you see are from, but we can't reach as far as saying they're spraying chemtrails when there's nothing to really back it up.
Old English word of the day: snāw-hwīt - snow-white. Pronounced "snaaw-hweet"
Has WU been hacked? This has been bizarre.
Quoting 88. wilsonbiggs:

My comment was just deleted. Wunderground needs to use a better system for this, lol.

The KLOT radar seems to be down. It looks like a cell just passed directly over it as well - hopefully it's not damaged or anything. Looks like we'll be relying on KILX and TORD for the rest of these storms.


Milwaukee's radar KMKX covers the Chicago area as well.
Have we underestimated the West’s super-floods?

For the past several decades, paleo-hydrologist Victor Baker of the University of Arizona has been using techniques similar to Minoura’s to study the flood history of the Colorado Plateau. Like Minoura, he’s found that floods much larger than any in recorded history are routine occurrences. And like Minoura, he feels his research is being largely ignored by agencies and public utilities with infrastructure in the path of such floods.

Link
Quoting 93. RobertWC:

Massive Permafrost Thaw Documented in Canada, Portends Huge Carbon Release

Huge slabs of Arctic permafrost in northwest Canada are slumping and disintegrating, sending large amounts of carbon-rich mud and silt into streams and rivers. A new study that analyzed nearly a half-million square miles in northwest Canada found that this permafrost decay is affecting 52,000 square miles of that vast stretch of earth—an expanse the size of Alabama.

According to researchers with the Northwest Territories Geological Survey, the permafrost collapse is intensifying and causing landslides into rivers and lakes that can choke off life downstream, all the way to where the rivers discharge into the Pacific Ocean.


Link
Can this be reversed?
A study published in February 2017, in the journal Geology, titled (The pdf) "Climate-driven thaw of permafrost-preserved glacial landscapes, northwestern Canada," describes the research efforts and findings made by scientists with the Northwest Territories Geological Survey in assessing the increasing intensity of permafrost collapse in the Arctic regions of Canada.

Another article with further details and maps-



Read more: NWT Geological Survey — Massive loss of permafrost due to climate
Kokelj, who is also the lead scientist on the mapping project, said, "Things have really taken off. Climate warming is now making that happen. It's exactly what we should expect with climate change." He also is quick to point out, "And the maps that we produced clearly indicated it's not just a random pattern. We're sort of connecting dots here for the scientific community."
Quoting 100. Kenfa03:

Can this be reversed?


Nope.
Sign of the apocalypse: Massive Canadian methane releases? Disintegrating arctic sea ice? Brazilian deforestation almost doubling in past 2 years? No! I present...the peas and mayonnaise pizza!

*shudders*

Well Ottawa,Illinois got damaged bad by the tornado that went through the town earlier this evening. It and the town of Naplate right next to it. Last I heard there was people possibly trapped in Naplate,and the local fire and ambulance has gone up to a 3 alarm status for recruiting nearby departments.
"A sense of despair": The mental health cost of unchecked climate change

Climate change is taking an obvious physical toll on earth: from depleted farmland to the rise of toxic pollution to the degradation of long-stable ecosystems to the disappearance of biodiversity and endangered species.

But looking beyond the physical, experts are also trying to sound the alarm about the quieter, more insidious effects of climate change: namely, that global warming is threatening the emotional health of humans worldwide.

“We see a sense of despair that sets in as inevitably Mother Nature, who we think of as our nurturing force, tells us we’re not going to be able to survive the conditions she’s set for us,” Dr. Lise Van Susteran, a practicing psychiatrist and expert on the dangers of climate change on mental health, told CBS News.

Dr. Van Susteran presented on this topic earlier this month at the Climate & Health Meeting in Atlanta, a conference that looked at climate change through the lens of public health. Former Vice President Al Gore organized the meeting when, days before President Trump’s inauguration, a long-planned Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) summit on the topic was abruptly cancelled.


Link
Quoting 106. RobertWC:



Nope.
Is it contributing to lack of tornados and hurricanes?
Now March in UTC. I like March because it's the month where the Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone development conditions begin to (very slowly) improve. SSTs begin to warm and shear begins to drop. Typically, In a month or two, the WPAC wakes up first, then the EPAC, then finally the Atlantic. It's also the month where days begin to get much longer. We're through the worst of it :)




Quoting 110. Kenfa03:

Is it contributing to lack of tornados and hurricanes?
Lack of tornados?
Quoting 110. Kenfa03:

Is it contributing to lack of tornados and hurricanes?


Who knows but it's definitely doing this :

I am under a tornado watch until 10:00 pm
CanSIPS updated. It has joined in on the El Nino bandwagon, now predicting a strong El Nino like CFS.
I just saw radar estimated winds on the tornadic storm southeast of St. Louis of 150 kts. or 173 mph.
Quoting 115. ChiThom:

I am under a tornado watch until 10:00 pm

Stay safe.
Quoting 70. EmsiNasklug:

Robert Scribbler:
With New El Nino Predicted, 3rd Hottest January on Record May be Cool Mark for 2017


With a weak La Nina fading, a weak to moderate El Nino apparently on the way, and with atmospheric greenhouse gasses at record high levels, it appears that 2017 temperatures will range close to the record global warmth that occurred during 2016. Image source: NASA.

And we all know we can trust everything from NASA !
543
WFUS53 KPAH 010259
TORPAH
ILC055-065-081-010345-
/O.NEW.KPAH.TO.W.0007.170301T0259Z-170301T0345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Paducah KY
859 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Paducah has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Jefferson County in south central Illinois...
Eastern Franklin County in south central Illinois...
Western Hamilton County in south central Illinois...

* Until 945 PM CST

* At 858 PM CST, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located
over Christopher, moving east at 45 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. This storm has produced
significant damage along its path. This is a life
threatening situation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris
may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile
homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,
businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete
destruction is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
West Frankfort, Benton, McLeansboro, West City, Thompsonville,
Hanaford, Ewing and Macedonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly
tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to
a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3789 8890 3808 8898 3820 8855 3793 8848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 257DEG 40KT 3799 8903

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL...1.75IN

$$

CN



Quoting 94. wilsonbiggs:



It's nice to hear a sane opinion on chemtrails here. While I'm sure your observations are true, I think your conclusion is kind of a reach - those planes could be anything -- research planes, for example. Contrails move, by the way - they're subject to wind patterns like any cloud. Contrails from miles away could easily blow over areas without flights. While I respect your views, we really can't let gut feelings and speculation get in the way of scientific fact - it'd be interesting to know what exactly the planes you see are from, but we can't reach as far as saying they're spraying chemtrails when there's nothing to really back it up.


I'd be interested to know too! I don't think they are drifting in from elsewhere as I watch them laying lines and then turning around offshore of the island and coming back to lay more lines. It is very odd. Even more odd is that my original comment has been deleted!? Too sane perhaps? Only those that fit the traditional bill of crazy conspiracy theorist are allowed? No intelligent rhetoric will remain uncensored?
Red tornado watch boxes not showing up on NWS radar. That's not good.
Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:

Old English word of the day: snāw-hwīt - snow-white. Pronounced "snaaw-hweet"


Older English word: sjuene hduwarfen - pronounced shoo-ene dwarfen. Seven dwarfs.
Lots of wind and rain, thunder and lightning, but no tornado. clear now.
Quoting 124. Grothar:



Older English word: sjuene hduwarfen - pronounced shoo-ene dwarfen. Seven dwarfs.



This is shaping up to be one of the worst overnight outbreaks we've ever seen in February. We're sitting at 21 right now and we'll be over 40 by morning. Many look to have been EF-2-EF-3 and would not be surprised in the least if we have one or more EF-4 rated. Line pushing through Missouri is almost all semi discreet super cells and many will be tornado warned soon. Nasty super cell producing likely EF3 plus damage right now through southern Indiana. Many deaths going to be associated with this historic outbreak. Not a good night and likely a bad harbinger for the tornado season yet to come.
Quoting 131. DeepSeaRising:

This is shaping up to be one of the worst overnight outbreaks we've ever seen in February. We're sitting at 21 right now and we'll be over 40 by morning. Many look to have been EF-2-EF-3 and would not be surprised in the least if we have one or more EF-4 rated. Line pushing through Missouri is almost all semi discreet super cells and many will be tornado warned soon. Nasty super cell producing likely EF3 plus damage right now through southern Indiana. Many deaths going to be associated with this historic outbreak. Not a good night and likely a bad harbinger for the tornado season yet to come.
we be over 60 by noon 47.3 now we were 35 at 5 am
my local forecast what a temp swing ahead


Tonight
Mainly cloudy. 40 percent chance of showers early this evening. Periods of rain beginning late this evening. Risk of a thunderstorm late this evening and overnight. Local amount 10 to 20 mm. Wind southeast 20 km/h becoming southwest 30 gusting to 50 near midnight. Temperature rising to 10 by morning.
Wed, 1 Mar
Periods of rain ending in the morning then mainly cloudy. A few showers beginning in the afternoon. Local amount 5 mm. Wind southwest 30 km/h gusting to 50. High 16.
Night
A few rain showers ending in the evening then mainly cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Wind southwest 50 km/h gusting to 70 becoming northwest 30 gusting to 60 after midnight. Low minus 6.
Thu, 2 Mar
A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of flurries. High zero.
Night
Cloudy periods with 30 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 11.
Fri, 3 Mar
A mix of sun and cloud with 30 percent chance of flurries. High minus 2.
Night
Clear. Low minus 14.
I am surprised that flood watches have not been posted in the Lansing mid-Michigan area. I got 2 inches in my coffee can (I know unscientific) in SW Lansing MI.

I have been away from this blog for awhile, and it's kind of disappointing that there is not more chatter with what seems to be a major weather event occurring for those south of me.

I have been overseas for awhile and the only way I found this blog was through a google search. It used to be clickable on my local Wunderground website. Oh well, thanks to the dedicated and long-time users for posting info. I have family in the lower Midwest that I like to alert if need be. Thanks again.
Good Night Peeps, Best of Luck to anyone in Harms Way...
Perryville, MO...

..
Quoting 131. DeepSeaRising:

This is shaping up to be one of the worst overnight outbreaks we've ever seen in February. We're sitting at 21 right now and we'll be over 40 by morning. Many look to have been EF-2-EF-3 and would not be surprised in the least if we have one or more EF-4 rated. Line pushing through Missouri is almost all semi discreet super cells and many will be tornado warned soon. Nasty super cell producing likely EF3 plus damage right now through southern Indiana. Many deaths going to be associated with this historic outbreak. Not a good night and likely a bad harbinger for the tornado season yet to come.


My thoughts and prayers go out to all that are effected with loss of life and damage that words can't describe.
Click image for text reports. Reports for 2/28 will accumulate through 6 am cst Wednesday..
145. elioe
Good morning, and stay safe there in America.

Euro has come to line with other models: no impacts in Madagascar. Now a path very close to Reunion is predicted for 95S. Next name on the list is Enawo.

146. vis0

Quoting 109. RobertWC:

"A sense of despair": The mental health cost of unchecked climate change

Climate change is taking an obvious physical toll on earth: from depleted farmland to the rise of toxic pollution to the degradation of long-stable ecosystems to the disappearance of biodiversity and endangered species.

But looking beyond the physical, experts are also trying to sound the alarm about the quieter, more insidious effects of climate change: namely, that global warming is threatening the emotional health of humans worldwide.

“We see a sense of despair that sets in as inevitably Mother Nature, who we think of as our nurturing force, tells us we’re not going to be able to survive the conditions she’s set for us,” Dr. Lise Van Susteran, a practicing psychiatrist and expert on the dangers of climate change on mental health, told CBS News.

Dr. Van Susteran presented on this topic earlier this month at the Climate & Health Meeting in Atlanta, a conference that looked at climate change through the lens of public health. Former Vice President Al Gore organized the meeting when, days before President Trump’s inauguration, a long-planned Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) summit on the topic was abruptly cancelled.


Link
YES!
Don't forget to connect the planets Hz to how the brain overheats quicker due to the Hz creating a higher starting point as in the resonant frequency in being suddenly shifted when brain goes into a sort of overload.  

Remember if science can show the public an affect of aGW down at ground level ($keptics greatest fear) it can unite the public much more than trying to show them an affect up there somewhere.  
As posted a few months ago the info as to when i asked on a NYc cable show which of three things would make you "wake up" to the affects of man's setting in motion the super fast warming climate change. 
Almost all callers (16 of 18 in 30 minutes...2 crank callers not counted) said the affects on the brain that would or is leading (i state) already to human's thinking with their emotions on their sleeves.
That change in how humans think ruins quality of life (like ruining atmospheres doesn't? but again to the general public that's somewhere up there not down at human interaction level), raises crimes, lower property values via crime and not caring as to selfish actions as damaging neighbors property due to a sudden angry outburst, and so much more that creates chaos by man not thinking things out.

Other 2 choices were warming of planet/melting of ice  and more unpredictable extreme weather changes.  A few callers added if they could be shown that cost of living would rise before their retirement thus devaluing their nest-egg by a lot (??? >50%???) and that would wake them up.

Of course since the affects of aGW on the brain are being studied more now it'll take some time to show how the brain's wiring is affect so for now its the pressures of having so many 1 in 500 year storms or rebuilding 2 times in 2 years instead of 6=8 years or receiving less sunshine  that will drive people to do weird things, gotta go rewarm my green peas and mashed potato pizza..
Quoting 100. Kenfa03:

Can this be reversed?

Sure, for a while, using nuclear winter.
Quoting 113. BaltimoreBrian:

Lack of tornados?


Yes

lack of Tornados. Tornado genesis is down over a multi year period
Quoting 148. boandjoe:



Yes

lack of Tornados. Tornado genesis is down over a multi year period


https://weather.com/safety/tornado/news/tornado-c ount-hits-record-lows

Humans are destroying the environment. period. in 5 generations we will be extinct
2017 cv season el nino and slightly above normal water temps in the atlantic. kind of odd
119. gulfbreeze
2:58 AM GMT on March 01, 2017

And we all know we can trust everything from NASA !


Time to reline the tin foil in your hat.
Quoting 119. gulfbreeze:



No need to trust NASA. Their data is supported by every other surface temperature data set by every other reputable scientific entity on Earth, including those of other nations. It is further indirectly supported through multiple lines of evidence and observation from other fields of science. Trust is utterly unnecessary.
Quoting 156. ohzone:

It's the U.S.Airforce. They have been experimenting with cloud seeding for years. Only an idiot would deny chemtrails these days. People know the difference between contrails and chemtrails.



You're going to find argument by assertion is singularly ineffective on this blog. Verifiable evidence is the coin of the realm in these parts.
Quoting 156. ohzone:

It's the U.S.Airforce. They have been experimenting with cloud seeding for years. Only an idiot would deny chemtrails these days. People know the difference between contrails and chemtrails.




only an idiot would think cloud seeding and chemtrails are the same thing. and yes the difference is contrails exist, and chemtrails dont.
Quoting 154. RobertWC:

Chile floods leave more than one million without water


Anytime you see floods in Chile look out as El-Nino is building in. Usually very dry in the Andes Mountains unless there is El-Nino.
If this trend keeps up then this will be the kiss of death for Hurricanes trying to form across the MDR this Summer. Notice the warm sea surface temperature ring that extends from off Argentina to Nino 1&2, the Gulf and the SW Atlantic going up the Eastern Seaboard. What this would mean though is that systems will have ample fuel to fire up close to the US just like last year.

This is one of the more impressive sea surface signature I've seen. Not good for a high number of tropical systems this year. East PAC well that's another story. Notice the Indian Ocean too. It really seems as this El-Nino is going to be quite strong later this year.

Good Morning Folks; the Conus forecast and current look: pretty nasty looking in the North Eastern section today






Nino 1&2 is on fire literally! And one wonders why Chile is seeing all these floods recently.

And the SPC Outlook and current reports for today so far: tons of wind and hail reports already: 


today Reports Graphic
Very impressive squall line as well:

Antarctica hits record high temperature at balmy 17.5°C (63.5°F)

An Argentine research base near the northern tip of the Antarctic peninsula has set a heat record at a balmy 17.5 degrees Celsius (63.5° Fahrenheit), the UN weather agency said on Wednesday.

The Experanza base set the high on March 24, 2015, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said after reviewing data around Antarctica to set benchmarks to help track future global warming and natural variations.


Link
Quoting 139. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perryville, MO...




That is defiantly major tornado damage, at least an EF2.
Quoting 149. boandjoe:



https://weather.com/safety/tornado/news/tornado-c ount-hits-record-lows




That was from 2014. It is now 2017.

Tornadoes:
2014 - 1057
2015 - 1259
2016 - 1059

Note you can get other annual summaries just by changing the year number in the URL.

On average, 1253 tornadoes occur in the US per year. Some years there are more. Some years there a less. Some years make records. Some years don't (Info).

As you can see, there is no discernable trend. "Multi-year" in this case is simply noise; weather being weather. For any meaningful trend there has to be a statistically significant deviation over a decade (preferably more). Otherwise short term factors influence the results too much to make a definitive case one way or the other.

Regardless, the overall impact of climate change on tornadoes is still an area of research. As tornadoes are small scale chaotic weather events influenced by a number of storm locality factors it is understandably difficult to analyze in a climate context. Even human urban development can play a role in tornado development.

Preliminary counts for this year are currently at 174
Quoting 145. elioe:

Good morning, and stay safe there in America.

Euro has come to line with other models: no impacts in Madagascar. Now a path very close to Reunion is predicted for 95S. Next name on the list is Enawo.




It indeed looks much better than yesterday. However, about half of the Euro ensembles are still predicting a track very close to Madagascar so I will have to keep a close eye on the situation...

On the other hand, this is pretty much a worst case scenario for Réunion. The 00z Euro is forecasting wind gusts of above 120 mph (193 kmh) for the entire island and gusts of 155 mph (250 kmh) for the capital city Saint-Denis.

Evaluating Highest-Temperature Extremes in the Antarctic

By Maria de Los Milagros Skansi, John King, Matthew A. Lazzara, Randall S. Cerveny, Jose Luis Stella, Susan Solomon, Phil Jones, David Bromwich, James Renwick, Christopher C. Burt, Thomas C. Peterson, Manola Brunet, Fatima Driouech, Russell Vose, and Daniel Krahenbuhl

Officially investigating, documenting, and verifying such high-temperature extremes is the business of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Commission for Climatology (CCl). For this purpose, the WMO CCl has created an international evaluation committee of climatologists and meteorologists associated with Antarctic temperature measurements to establish the highest-temperature extremes of the region.

Their investigation verified what is, as of now, the current record high: a balmy 19.8°C (67.6°F). This temperature was observed on 30 January 1982 at Signy Research Station at Factory Cove, Borge Bay, on Signy Island. This record, collected with instruments that follow WMO’s standards, has now been made public by WMO.


Link
Denmark Generated Enough Wind Energy To Power All Its Electricity Needs On Wednesday
February 24th, 2017

Link
JTWC has not updated their page yet with a current sat shot for today of 95S in the Indian Ocean but here is a Meteosat shot for today; it is forecast for more favorable conditions later in the period when sheer lessens but the convection has waned a bit today as compared to yesterday:

Hell of a night last night was!

OK, so here's my story.

From about 5:45PM to 9:45PM last night I watched KFVS12 as they tracked a tornado from Reynolds County MO to White County IL. I went to bed, and then was violently awoken by a tornado siren at 10:30PM (I actually predicted that, just for the record). A tornado warning was in effect for my location, and a CONFIRMED TORNADO was located near Cedar Lake. Me and my sister were in the bathroom waiting out the storm (the bathroom is my safe place, due to no basement), and we were in there for 5 to 10 minutes. Just before I went back to bed, I looked at the radar on my phone. I did not screenshot it, but it looked like there was a hook echo. It was raining ded 'ard (meaning very hard). I then fell asleep at about 11:00PM, and woke up at about 6:05 AM, and saw my phone had been blown up with weather alerts. Apparently, a Tornado Warning had been issued at about 4AM or so, and yet the Tornado Siren didn't go off. I then surveyed my neighborhood. No damage apart from some fallen leaves and flower petals.

Tell your story of last night!
Quoting 156. ohzone:

It's the U.S.Airforce. They have been experimenting with cloud seeding for years. Only an idiot would deny chemtrails these days. People know the difference between contrails and chemtrails.




Cloud seeding in clear air at jet aircraft altitudes is ineffective. It only works in slightly supercooled clouds.
Quoting 131. DeepSeaRising:

This is shaping up to be one of the worst overnight outbreaks we've ever seen in February. We're sitting at 21 right now and we'll be over 40 by morning. Many look to have been EF-2-EF-3 and would not be surprised in the least if we have one or more EF-4 rated. Line pushing through Missouri is almost all semi discreet super cells and many will be tornado warned soon. Nasty super cell producing likely EF3 plus damage right now through southern Indiana. Many deaths going to be associated with this historic outbreak. Not a good night and likely a bad harbinger for the tornado season yet to come.


Unfortunately, I think you are right about the coming spring season.
NASA's lost balloon recovered from Antarctica

Scientists have recovered a lost football-field-sized balloon with a telescope hanging beneath it from Antarctica after a year of its flight.

According to the US space agency NASA, the balloon floated 39 kms above the Antarctic continent for 12 days in January 2016 until scientists sent the pre-planned command to cut the balloon.


The telescope parachuted to the ground in the Queen Maud region of Antarctica where it remained on the ice for an entire year.

"The scientists did quickly recover the data vaults from the NASA-funded mission, called GRIPS (Gamma-Ray Imager/Polarimeter for Solar flares), but due to incoming winter weather they had to leave the remaining instruments on the ice and schedule a recovery effort for the following year," NASA said in a statement on Saturday.


Link
Several tornado warnings up at the moment from TN to WV............Gonna Be one of those days to follow the dots East: here are the last 3 hours worth:

last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic



156 ohzone?

oh please. are you wearing your tinfoil hat?
.
Quoting 181. RobertWC:

U.S. Monthly Records Summary

High Max - 410
High Min - 323
Low Max - 0
Low Min - 1

Link


The last 30 days.
Summer morning here in SE TX, low to mid 70s for lows. World is getting hotter, Trump speech was best ever, market sky rockets past 21,000 for first time, the sky is the limit.....it's total chaos out there folks.
Wondering if we might see a declared Derecho later as the current squall line with the strong gusts and embedded tornadoes spans a few hundred miles and states as it moves to the NE: trees down across the board and roofs blown off smaller structures has been the landscape across the entire passage of the squall line this morning across multiple states.

Here is the basic definition from Wiki:
derecho /, from Spanish: derecho [, "straight") is a widespread, long-lived, straight-line wind storm that is associated with a land-based, fast-moving group of severe thunderstorms. Derechos can cause hurricane-force winds, tornadoes, heavy rains, and flash floods.





Quoting 169. Famoguy1234:



That is defiantly major tornado damage, at least an EF2.


that is no EF2 damge that is at lest strong EF4 or low end EF5 damges take a look around the hole house is gone nothing lift all so look at the tress in the area
186. elioe
Quoting 173. RobertWC:

Denmark Generated Enough Wind Energy To Power All Its Electricity Needs On Wednesday
February 24th, 2017

Link


Well, then, February 22 was a good day for Norwegians. It can be seen from Nord Pool price and transmission tables also.
We are announcing new records on Wednesday, 1 March 2017 for Antarctic High Temperatures and for Global Tropical Cyclones.


Excerpt:

Western Hemisphere: Tropical Cyclone: Most Intense Tropical Cyclone (by Central Pressure)

Hurricane Patricia: A WMO evaluation committee confirmed findings by the NHC TC experts, Todd B. Kimberlain, Eric S. Blake, and John P. Cangialosi with the 872 hPa central pressure estimate and the 95m/s (185 kt, 215 mph) estimated winds on 1200 UTC 23 October 2015.
Even with a mega El nino the CFS doesn't kill the Atlantic.
189. vis0
WEATHER:: zip 10016 Thunder in the distance, too bright cloudy to observe lightning not to mention Venetian blinds are down and fixing up breakfast so not observing the outside visuals

For those that like my crappy graphics later this afternoon hope to have my 22 cents (with crappy graphics) as to why the S. Hem's TS drought....ya know it involves that imaginary device..no not "the" unicorn...

Not read nor saw news as to last nites severe, time to catch up.
Quoting 188. Gearsts:

Even with a mega El nino the CFS doesn't kill the Atlantic.






Looks like the worst of it is over this morning as the t-storms are starting to loose some of the convection as the line starts to push towards VA/MD/PN but plenty of rain and a few severe cells still firing.
Quoting 169. Famoguy1234:



That is defiantly major tornado damage, at least an EF2.


hard to tell without knowing how the house was constructed. The trees indicate at least an EF3 due to all of them being snapped and some debarking.
Quoting 190. Envoirment:



How do you link the whole tweet? This will be useful in the hurricane season ;)
Quoting 25. Carnivorous:

Thanks for the very interesting blog post! However, the video of the toppled car is not from Cyclone Dineo but from Cyclone Vardah which hit India in December. See this video.




That's how the media and news organizations work. Half the crap put out is fake or inaccurate. Even if corrected, it's already too late.
As shown by example, ignorance is still free.
Gee, a Trumpism on a Weds morn,.

Back to my hangover'..

: P

Quoting 131. DeepSeaRising:

This is shaping up to be one of the worst overnight outbreaks we've ever seen in February. We're sitting at 21 right now and we'll be over 40 by morning. Many look to have been EF-2-EF-3 and would not be surprised in the least if we have one or more EF-4 rated. Line pushing through Missouri is almost all semi discreet super cells and many will be tornado warned soon. Nasty super cell producing likely EF3 plus damage right now through southern Indiana. Many deaths going to be associated with this historic outbreak. Not a good night and likely a bad harbinger for the tornado season yet to come.


The location is certainly unusual too. It's more like the placement of a May or June event thanks to the jet being displaced so far north and anomalous warmth for late winter.
Quoting 107. BaltimoreBrian:

Sign of the apocalypse: Massive Canadian methane releases? Disintegrating arctic sea ice? Brazilian deforestation almost doubling in past 2 years? No! I present...the peas and mayonnaise pizza!

*shudders*




I would rather get the flu than eat that. It's a crime that even exists.


Oroville spillway.
Quoting 205. BayFog:



Oroville spillway.


What a mess
And a recent paper on the issue of darkening of the Greenland Ice Sheet:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/355/6327/78 8


In Greenland, the great melt is on. The decline of Greenland’s ice sheet is a familiar story, but until recently, massive calving glaciers that carry ice from the interior and crumble into the sea got most of the attention. But between 2011 and 2014, satellite data and modeling suggested that 70% of the annual 269 billion tons of snow and ice shed by Greenland was lost through surface melt, not calving. Complex feedbacks appear to be responsible: Warmer summers are abetted by microbes and algae that grow on the increasingly wet surface of the ice, producing pigments that boost the absorption of solar energy. Soot and dust that blow from lower latitudes and darken the ice also appear to be playing a role, as are changes in weather patterns that increasingly steer warm, moist air over the vulnerable ice.

Had a radar based warning for my county's northern panhandle (that I-55 comes through) but have not seen any reports of damage from it. Lost someone to our N in Ottawa (I-80), someone to the SE near IN border by Carmi (I-64), which was the same storm cluster that killed a motorist on I-55 in Perryville, MO. StL TV had a helicopter down there this morning, very bad damage to one neighborhood near US 60, I assume before it crossed 55, then it hop skipped across S IL to IN border (and beyond I believe). Closer to StL, some wind damage and lots of 1-2" hail reports.

Never had much in our neighborhood, fortunately. Some wind from both early and front passage, sky lit up a lot w/ the early a.m. front, about 1/2" from it. Overall, from amount of damage, pretty lucky only 3 fatalities, though still too many.

Currently in S C IL, 47 after 68 at midnight I'd assume, pressure is at 29.8" and rising, WNW winds 10-15, gusting to 35.

Too bad we had blog holes occurring while severe weather was developing yesterday.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
350 AM HST Wed Mar 1 2017

...BLIZZARD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS
ABOVE 11000 FEET...

.An approaching upper level trough will pass from west to east
across the islands through tonight. Heavy snow showers, strong
winds and poor visibilities are expected at the Big Island
summits, with a chance for thunderstorms as well.



Oroville spillway sediment delta of "solid bedrock".
WU says goodbye to WUMail - FAQ
General
Q: Why is WUMail going away?
A: Due to declining use of WUMail and the abundance of communication channels available, we have decided to shut down WUMail. We welcome community members to interact with one another across WU's social media accounts.

Q: How can I communicate with other folks on WU?
A: While we cannot provide alternative messaging services, we recommend connecting on Facebook, Instagram or any other preferred social media channel.

Q: What will happen to my existing messages?
A: Unfortunately, we are unable to archive your existing messages.
This article was helpful Flag this article as inaccurate




Oroville spillway inspection. Exposed rebar evident.
WU feature and product updates
← General
As you know, over the years Weather Underground has provided a wide variety of weather-related services and features across our web and mobile properties. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve you in this capacity. As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support the following products and features:

Member blogs
WUMail
NOAA Weather Radio
SMS alerts
As of April 3rd, all of the features listed above will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.

We know you’ll likely have questions, so we’ve created FAQ pages to address your concerns, which are accessible via the links provided. We sincerely appreciate your understanding and continued support throughout this transition.

As part of this transition, Category 6 will get a new look. On April 3, 2017 all posts by Jeff Masters, Bob Henson and WU featured bloggers will move to Category 6 – meaning all our articles will be accessible in one place. Be sure to check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved format.

If you would like to help shape the future of WU products, please provide your feedback in this quick survey.

What about the ability for Admin and Mods to block and delete an account?...............That would be helpful right about now..............................
Am I missing something, or am I reading this correctly?


Member blogs
WUMail
NOAA Weather Radio
SMS alerts

As of April 3rd, all of the features listed above will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.

Hey Hey, Goodbye.....


WU feature and product updates


As you know, over the years Weather Underground has provided a wide variety of weather-related services and features across our web and mobile properties. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve you in this capacity. As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support the following products and features:

Member blogs
WUMail
NOAA Weather Radio
SMS alerts
As of April 3rd, all of the features listed above will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.
Do these updates mean a new comment section is coming as well?
WU feature and product updates
← General
As you know, over the years Weather Underground has provided a wide variety of weather-related services and features across our web and mobile properties. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve you in this capacity. As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support the following products and features:

Member blogs
WUMail
NOAA Weather Radio
SMS alerts
As of April 3rd, all of the features listed above will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.

We know you’ll likely have questions, so we’ve created FAQ pages to address your concerns, which are accessible via the links provided. We sincerely appreciate your understanding and continued support throughout this transition.

As part of this transition, Category 6 will get a new look. On April 3, 2017 all posts by Jeff Masters, Bob Henson and WU featured bloggers will move to Category 6 – meaning all our articles will be accessible in one place. Be sure to check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved format.

If you would like to help shape the future of WU products, please provide your feedback in
I never used my blog any ways
I just talked to a geek star IT Guru friend here in NOLA...and he can transfer my wu mails in a day He said. EASILY.

All 4356 of um.
Quoting 213. BayFog:



Oroville spillway sediment delta of "solid bedrock".


Crazy they put a slab on unstable aggregate/bedding on a hillside and expected it to stay stable for the life of the dam.

You can see where the bedding washed out in the shadows of the remaining slab and where the slab had half a chance resting on solid bedrock.

Quoting 222. nrtiwlnvragn:

Hey Hey, Goodbye.....


WU feature and product updates


As you know, over the years Weather Underground has provided a wide variety of weather-related services and features across our web and mobile properties. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve you in this capacity. As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support the following products and features:

Member blogs
WUMail
NOAA Weather Radio
SMS alerts
As of April 3rd, all of the features listed above will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.


It's been a long, strange ride here at wunderground, and this latest round of changes is certainly a big shift. The changes to the blogs will mean that the significant problems we've had over the past year (blog slowness, unavailability, comments disappearing, etc) should resolve--though with any new software upgrade, there will be a shake-out period. I want to thank everyone in the wunderground community that blogged here; you helped make the wunderground a unique place to be. I will miss all the great contributions you made.

Jeff Masters
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
551 AM HST WED MAR 1 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
OAHU LEEWARD WATERS...
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS...

* UNTIL 745 AM HST

* AT 550 AM HST...RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS AND WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER. THIS STORM
WAS LOCATED 16 NM WEST OF KAENA POINT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
KNOTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS. WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY
OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS SEAS. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.
Ashes for lent, and out the door all sent.


O Sweet Wednesday Irony, we do love thee'

Let me count the way's..

..How everything still turn's to Gold....



onward forward we go
Quoting 223. 1Zach1:

Do these updates mean a new comment section is coming as well?


Yes, a new commenting system will be launched, which will allow independent comment threads on different topics. Should be a big improvement.

Jeff Masters
I support whatever you do doc will visit and comment on your entries as always
I encourage all members of our community to do the same
change it can be difficult but it can be overcome
T'was a fine weather day yesterday for Mardi Gras. The Band did Concourse D for 2 hours 1-3 pm at the MSY Airport, then we were off to House of Blues from 7-10 in the Voodoo Gardens, then a late close out set 11-1 at Buffa's.

The Band is flying to Paris Saturday for their first international Tour.



U Geaux Boyz'

Mardi Gras Day 2017 images,assorted



I like the idea because I don't come here to read people's opinions on Trump or to see an over abundance of cut and paste AGW articles.

Hopefully, the members that just want to talk about the current weather around the U.S. and the World can have their own blog section. That would be great.

243. Sfloridacat5

Let's hope they don't throw out the baby with the bathwater!
We're going down to freezing tonight after a long warm spell. Snow is forecast , too, but it won't stick around for long when it warms back up to the 50s and 60s.
Reading the comments I don't understand. Will there be no more blogs after April 3rd or will there be a new system of blogs we can use?

An extract of Dr. Master's comment "I will miss all the great contributions you made." That sounds like the blogs and comments will be gone. But there will be a new blogging system right? And users will be able to make new blogs?
Quoting 219. weathermanwannabe:

What about the ability for Admin and Mods to block and delete an account?...............That would be helpful right about now..............................
I seriously think their in on this.Unfortunately the ignore feature is not working and I and others are getting real fed up and tired of whatever thing is behind that account real fast.It has already been proven wrong several times now.Server weather season is kicking into full gear and we don't have time for conspiracy theory trash to clutter the front page.Mods/Admin do something before good bloggers turn away.
Quoting 248. TheBigBanana:

Reading the comments I don't understand. Will there be no more blogs after April 3rd or will there be a new system of blogs we can use?

An extract of Dr. Master's comment "I will miss all the great contributions you made." That sounds like the blogs and comments will be gone. But there will be a new blogging system right? And users will be able to make new blogs?


As I understand it there will only be one blog, the Category6 blog. Maybe Rood, Gregory, Shepard..... will post on that blog?
Quoting 249. washingtonian115:

I seriously think their in on this.Unfortunately the ignore feature is not working and I and others are getting real fed up and tired of whatever thing is behind that account real fast.It has already been proven wrong several times now.Server weather season is kicking into full gear and we don't have time for conspiracy theory trash to clutter the front page.Mods/Admin do something before good bloggers turn away.

it has been removed and banned

Quoting 243. Sfloridacat5:

I like the idea because I don't come here to read people's opinions on Trump or to see an over abundance of cut and paste AGW articles.

Hopefully, the members that just want to talk about the current weather around the U.S. and the World can have their own blog section. That would be great.


I like the articles people link. I've read quite a few and learned from them.
OK this makes it clear


WunderBlog product update - FAQ

← Blogs
Q: What will happen on April 3?
A: On April 3, 2017, we will remove the ability for members to create new WunderBlogs. As part of this transition, Category 6 featured blogs will change to a new format which includes a more polished look and robust commenting system. Check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved version of Category 6.

Q: Will I be able to create my own blog entries after April 3?
A: As of April 3, 2017, the ability to create a new WunderBlog will be removed; however, you will still be able to search (via username) for all previously uploaded blogs.

Q: What will happen to my previous blog posts?
A; We will archive all WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3.

Q: Can I still view previous blog posts and comments?
A: Yes! All WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3 will be viewable; however, blog comments will not be displayed
Quoting 250. nrtiwlnvragn:



As I understand it there will only be one blog, the Category6 blog. Maybe Rood, Gregory, Shepard..... will post on that blog?
it will be a forum blogs will cease to exist and only be available to visit in an archived format minus comments
WunderBlog product update

Q: What will happen on April 3?
A: On April 3, 2017, we will remove the ability for members to create new WunderBlogs. As part of this transition, Category 6 featured blogs will change to a new format which includes a more polished look and robust commenting system. Check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved version of Category 6.

Q: Will I be able to create my own blog entries after April 3?
A: As of April 3, 2017, the ability to create a new WunderBlog will be removed; however, you will still be able to search (via username) for all previously uploaded blogs.

Q: What will happen to my previous blog posts?
A; We will archive all WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3.

Q: Can I still view previous blog posts and comments?
A: Yes! All WunderBlog posts published prior to April 3 will be viewable; however, blog comments will not be displayed.

Q: Will I be able to comment on new blogs?
A: Absolutely, you can engage in scientific discussion on the new and improved Category 6 articles.
WU says goodbye to WUMail - FAQ
← General
Q: Why is WUMail going away?
A: Due to declining use of WUMail and the abundance of communication channels available, we have decided to shut down WUMail. We welcome community members to interact with one another across WU’s social media accounts.  

Q: How can I communicate with other folks on WU?
A: While we cannot provide alternative messaging services, we recommend connecting on Facebook, Instagram or any other preferred social media channel.

Q: What will happen to my existing messages?
A: Unfortunately, we are unable to archive your existing messages. 
WU says goodbye to NOAA weather radio and SMS alerts - FAQ
← General
Q: Why is NOAA Weather Radio going away?
A: As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support NOAA Weather Radio.

Q: Where else can I hear live weather reports?
A: We recommend tuning into your local news affiliate station for the latest NOAA weather updates. Information is also accessible via the “Scientific Forecaster Discussion” located below the 10-day forecast section of any city page.

Q: Why are SMS alerts going away?
A: Severe weather alerts are available in many forms across our web and mobile properties (e.g., app alerts, app push notifications, and daily forecast emails). Given the alternative alerting services WU provides, we have decided to no longer support SMS text alerts.
WU says goodbye to NOAA weather radio and SMS alerts - FAQ
← General
Q: Why is NOAA Weather Radio going away?
A: As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support NOAA Weather Radio.

Q: Where else can I hear live weather reports?
A: We recommend tuning into your local news affiliate station for the latest NOAA weather updates. Information is also accessible via the “Scientific Forecaster Discussion” located below the 10-day forecast section of any city page.

Q: Why are SMS alerts going away?
A: Severe weather alerts are available in many forms across our web and mobile properties (e.g., app alerts, app push notifications, and daily forecast emails). Given the alternative alerting services WU provides, we have decided to no longer support SMS text alerts.


Been following a blob/pattern for about a week, since when that was around Gabon. Now it's about near the center of this picture/globe (slightly on the left, around latitude 0 (zero), longitude 15-20.). Expecting this thing to become A-storm of the year.
Meanwhile, trees are still getting blown down on a regular basis in Virginia out in front of the gust front even through the tornado activity has abated over the past 3 hours:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours. html



last3hours Reports Graphic

A forum you say? Very interesting.
Quoting 194. Gearsts:

How do you link the whole tweet? This will be useful in the hurricane season ;)


At the top right of the tweet is a downward facing arrow, click that and click embed tweet. Then just copy and paste the code into the comment box. It used to be hit and miss on whether media in a tweet would load on the blog, but it seems they're loading just fine now. I guess once the blog and its new software is sorted out, there won't be much issue with posting them.
Quoting 261. 1Zach1:

A forum you say? Very interesting.
something like that
we get to see it all in a month from now
Wonder if WU's daddy IBM had anything to do with the change?
IBM's CEO was in Trump's office the second week of his Presidency?
Just sayin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 265. trunkmonkey:

Wonder if WU's daddy IBM had anything to do with the change?
IBM's CEO was in Trump's office the second week of his Presidency?
Just sayin!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


This goes back way before that...ever since the weather channel acquired wundground is the cause of all this.
Quoting 259. Uragani:



Been following a blob/pattern for about a week, since when that was around Gabon. Now it's about near the center of this picture/globe (slightly on the left, around latitude 0 (zero), longitude 15-20.). Expecting this thing to become A-storm of the year.


Looks promising but some of those waves dry-up after splashdown and it has a narrow window of favorable sheer at the moment with a higher band just to the North; have to see how it does in about 48 hours:



Everytime we get a new and improved WU by the powers to be all the changes SUCK .. YOU WON'T SEE WU IN ANOTHER 2 YEARS IT WILL BE CLOSED DOWN DUE TO LACK OF USE .. EVERYONE WILL BE LEAVING .. AND IT WILL BE SOONER THEN LATER !!!

Dr Master and others in selling this has made their pockets full but trashed all the people that actually made this site what it is .. Especially during Hurricane Season !!

I've been here since before August 2005 .. and have see the changes made degrade everything we have worked for ..

BYE !!!
Quoting 264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we get to see it all in a month from now


Some of us won't because we will no longer be here !!!
I never wrote a blog myself but I liked some of the blogs people kept like StormTrackerScott and LowerCal. It's a shame those blog will be gone and the other blogs members wrote. I think eliminating the member blogs is a mistake.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Well said white wabit. I don't spend hardly anytime on here. It has become nothing but political bashing, and insults hurled at people who have different opinions.What I would like to know is do any of these people hold a job? They spend their whole lives looking for every crumb of info on AGW, or posting constant pictures or nonsense of songs and movies for crying out loud. They say their independants? but they constantly bash only one political party? One who has severe diabetes: but still holds a full time job, keeps up 30 acres of my elderly mothers plus mine.While also having to deal with my elderly mothers declining health. So in summary of this rant, this weather blog is just a hobby, not a real life necessity. For you who feel like you have achieved some kind of rock star status by being a icon on something so insignicant may God give you a view of what is important in life. Right on White Wabitt you the man. Good day and God Bless.
Quoting 258. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

WU says goodbye to NOAA weather radio and SMS alerts - FAQ
← General
Q: Why is NOAA Weather Radio going away?
A: As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support NOAA Weather Radio.

Q: Where else can I hear live weather reports?
A: We recommend tuning into your local news affiliate station for the latest NOAA weather updates. Information is also accessible via the “Scientific Forecaster Discussion” located below the 10-day forecast section of any city page.

Q: Why are SMS alerts going away?
A: Severe weather alerts are available in many forms across our web and mobile properties (e.g., app alerts, app push notifications, and daily forecast emails). Given the alternative alerting services WU provides, we have decided to no longer support SMS text alerts.

Speaking for those of us who are visually impaired to some degree, the radio was necessary and supported by WU in the past,,
I'm gonna put it out there..
You can't support what we had before IBM??
Really??
All this for a super computer access port??
No thanks if you ask me..
That's one of many I don't by in anymore..
Partly cloudy and 79 with high humidity..
Well that took awhile..
Sorry about the response time..
Quoting 218. Patrap:

WU feature and product updates
← General
As you know, over the years Weather Underground has provided a wide variety of weather-related services and features across our web and mobile properties. We are grateful for the opportunity to serve you in this capacity. As we continue to innovate and focus on our core forecasting capabilities, we are no longer able to properly support the following products and features:

Member blogs
WUMail
NOAA Weather Radio
SMS alerts
As of April 3rd, all of the features listed above will become unavailable and will be removed from Weather Underground’s website and mobile applications.

We know you’ll likely have questions, so we’ve created FAQ pages to address your concerns, which are accessible via the links provided. We sincerely appreciate your understanding and continued support throughout this transition.

As part of this transition, Category 6 will get a new look. On April 3, 2017 all posts by Jeff Masters, Bob Henson and WU featured bloggers will move to Category 6 – meaning all our articles will be accessible in one place. Be sure to check wunderground.com on April 3rd to see the new and improved format.

If you would like to help shape the future of WU products, please provide your feedback in this quick survey.




This is what happens when corporations take over. Corporations are a social disease.
Quoting 53. StAugustineFL:



Did this catch everyone by surprise? A few days prior I believe this was forecast to be a minimal storm - then came the deluge. Granted it was confined to a relatively small area of real estate.



Other than the fact that it rained.....a major brain fart by the models!
276. vis0
weather:: zip 10016 windy, the type of 30-40 long gusts that usually brings in winter in November in these parts.  
When one hears these winds and garbage can being knocked over it usually means no more Indian summer real winter a-coming.
Its the first time i've heard these winds this 2016/17 winter, its entering like a baby Lion, Spring is around the corner.

Since i / we will no longer be able to fill my blog with crap and i don't do well just hanging around in that i  have a need to share my thoughts i will  first continue my search for a modern blog then when if a weather disaster happens] i'll lurk. There goes Max page, BBrians page (when it fills) i'd be careful editing the blogs as a glitch might erase the page and never get it back. Try copying entire pages since some blogbytes are VERY long+KBs try a video capturer as "Vidshot capture" (ig its still around) and set the capture time(Advanced) to 4 secs and slowly manually scroll page as VIDEO is being captured. 

You can still view my uploads of satellite imagery i filter at my Internet Archive account (https://archive.org/details/2016MATTHEWAndNICOLE) or at youtubes wxretro where i hope to also upload old weather channel VIDs of over an hour but understand wxretro has all sorts of weather channel related clips from old Ads to the hated WxBabe clips, i'm a physical being that enjoys learning observing nature and beauty and brains humaah and don't like liars nor sites that don't allow one to be one with more than 129 characters** so my sites reflect who i am.

Isn't weird that a study in the early 2null decade in studying brain activities and sites that allowed comments showed that writing either with internet shorthand or in less than 300 characters (NOT COUNTING EMERGENCY MESSAGES AS FROM WEATHER / DISASTER REPORTS)  dumbs down the brain and at this moment one of the most popular sites for twits has a 140 limit way below the dumbing down line. Wonder how long till WxU includes a character limit i hear it'll be 250, start yer bidding.  Anyone remember my zilly aniGIF of singing the ABC's but since the site had a 140 limit little Johnny (14 in 6th grade) only learned up to L-M-N-O...maybe Kim Kardashian will come out with a "qrstuvwxyz" emoticon.

Thank You to WxU members...true questioners and original WxU / IBM staff ya finally got rid of the pest, Enjoy the silence...

Stay alert