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The Milding of February: All-Time Winter Warmth in Midwest

By: Bob Henson 4:41 PM GMT on February 23, 2017

Residents of Wisconsin have never experienced a winter day like the one that enveloped the state in a springlike balm on Wednesday. An uncommon lack of late-February snow cover across Illinois and southern Wisconsin allowed very mild air streaming northward to sweep across the state with very little surface cooling. All three of Wisconsin’s largest cities saw the highest temperatures observed on any December, January, or February day in more than a century of recordkeeping. Milwaukee’s 71°F smashed its winter record of 68°F (Dec. 5, 2001 and Feb. 11, 1999). Madison’s 68°F beat out 65°F from Dec. 3, 2012, as well as the monthly record of 64°F from Feb. 25, 2000. Meanwhile, Green Bay’s 65°F eclipsed the previous winter record of 64°F (Dec. 5, 2001) and the monthly record of 61°F (Feb. 26, 2000).

Wednesday’s warmth was a fitting coda to a remarkably warm stretch across most of the Midwest. In some ways, the ultra-mild period is reminiscent of the Great Warm Wave of March 2012, if not quite as spectacular as that summerlike spell was. Duration is one of the most impressive aspects of the past week’s Midwestern mildness. St. Cloud, Minnesota, saw its sixth consecutive day above 50°F on Wednesday, the longest such streak on record for any February, while Chicago, Illinois, set a similar record for its first six-day streak of 60°F readings in any February (or in any winter month, for that matter). Rockford, Illinois, set six daily record highs in a row on February 17-22. Each of these new records was between 66°F and 70°F, beating out previous records that ranged from 58°F to 64°F.

In Detroit, Michigan, the high on Wednesday hit 65°F, and was already at 66°F at 1 pm Thursday, marking the third and fourth time in the past week the Motor City has reached or exceeded 65°F. The forecast for Friday calls for a fifth February 2017 day of 65°F or greater, with a high of 67°F—a full thirty degrees above average.  Between 1874 and 2016, Detroit reached or exceeded 65°F only six times in February. Jeff Masters reports from southeast Michigan: “My lawn is starting to green up--an extraordinary occurrence for a time of year when the ground is usually frozen and covered with a hefty layer of snow!”


Figure 1. Spring in February? A crocus blooms in Dravosburg, Pennsylvania on February 20, 2017. Image credit: Wunderphotographer gingyb


Figure 2. Snow cover was lacking across the Northern Great Lakes on Wednesday, February 22, 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.

Snow is a rare commodity in the Upper Midwest right now
Only 26.5% of the Upper Midwest was covered by snow on Wednesday, with an average coating of just 1.7 inches. Even the Northern Great Lakes were just 27.2% snow-covered. These are striking numbers to witness a full month before the spring equinox. The only states in the contiguous U.S. east of the Rockies where snow cover truly predominated on Wednesday were North Dakota, New York (the eastern half), and the New England states, still buried after a sequence of storms earlier this month.

Lake ice is also in relatively short supply across the Midwest. Only 8.7% of the Great Lakes were ice-covered as of Tuesday, compared to 12.7% on that date in 2016 and a far more impressive 82.8% in 2015. It appears that the maximum coverage this year will be the already-observed 15%. That would place 2015-16 in fourth place for lowest maximum ice extent among all winters tracked since 1973 by NOAA, as related by George Leshkevich (NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) to the Detroit Free Press.

Back to a more late-winter-like pattern
A strong, blustery winter storm pushing across the Midwest late Wednesday into Thursday will send the region back into a more seasonable pattern for at least a few days, starting off with a swath of snow extending from Colorado and Wyoming across the central and northern Great Plains into the Midwest. After reaching the mid-60s on Wednesday (35°F above average), Green Bay was expecting 1” - 3” of snow late Thursday into Friday. A blizzard warning was in effect for Thursday night into Friday across northwest Iowa and neighboring areas. It looks like Chicago will get mostly rain until at least Friday, thus prolonging its record-long “snow drought.” As of Wednesday, it had been 67 days since Chicago got its last inch of snow, surpassing the record of 66 days (Dec. 25, 1921, to Feb. 28, 1922).

We’ll be back with a new post by Friday afternoon. Stay tuned for more in coming days on how this strikingly mild late winter is affecting other parts of the U.S.

Bob Henson

Extreme Weather Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Bada boom,

New entry.
thanks lunchtime temp update here is 59.2 as of 11 am with a humid feel with it noon update shortly
Normal, is fading faster than we can fathom,...


The time to make a difference is fading even faster.



We are warming 170 times faster than anytime in the last 800,000 years.

Species are being lost at a rate 1000 times faster than anytime in the recent geological past.

The pain we are and will continue to feel and observe, will have Global reaching impacts on the most developed and undeveloped areas of the Earth.

Unless something other than the gathering of wealth by Men and Nation becomes a memory, nothing will change en masse as to our continued raping of the Earth and its Biosphere.


Think about the current Administration's first month alone,and how it has impacted Science so far.

When my vacation begins soon, I plan on writing about the effects of our misguided past and what it is doing to the generations today, and what the future holds for those to come.


"Bleak" may be the werking title, for now.

Anyone have any idea how much 1 gal of Gasoline burnt creates in CO2 ?

I do.



















Thanks Mr. Henson: pursuant to your notation below, climate scientists have really been commenting on the incredible heat numbers for the Arctic, and other areas of North America, during the 2015-2016 season that have continued into this Winter (2016-2017) at a more furious pace. Gonna be very interesting to see, as the United States is so big, bounded by Oceans on both sides, and the Arctic to the North and Tropics to the South, whether regional weather patterns across the US are going to continue to depart drastically from traditional norms of the past recent decades as we push further into the 21st century. Irrespective of Enso phases in any given time period, we have been seeing more records broken (heat, snow fall, ice coverage, rain, etc. ) in several district areas of the United States in any given season in recent years. The stats below are a prime example.


Only 8.7% of the Great Lakes were ice-covered as of Tuesday, compared to 12.7% on that date in 2016 and a far more impressive 82.8% in 2015.
Delighted with the rain of the past 24 hours here on Florida's East Central coast. Approximately 1.2 inches and showers still prevail.

Normally a cold front follows, however with the upper level low having crossed the state, expect temperatures to rise this afternoon into the high 70s-low 80s.

AND, oaks, pines and bermuda grasses are blooming all over. Hay fever city!
Hitting close to home for me here in Illinois.
Tuscola IL
FEB 1ST-22ND
AVERAGE HIGH (35-40) 37.5 F
2017 AVERAGE HIGH 52.8 F
THAT's 15.3 F ABOVE THE NORM.

AVERAGE LOWS (18-24) 21 F
2017 AVERAGE LOW 33.2 F
THAT's 12.2 F ABOVE THE NORM.

LAST 6 DAYS FEB 17-22
AVERAGE HIGH 39 F
2017 AVERAGE HIGH 70.8 F
THAT's 31.8 F ABOVE THE NORM OVER THE LAST 6 DAYS!


FORECAST FOR NEXT 7 DAYS SAYS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LET UP WITH WIDESPREAD 6-10 C ABOVE THE NORM FOR ALL AREAS POINTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.



12:00 PM EST Thursday 23 February 2017
Temperature:
61.7°F
Dew point:
52.0°F
Humidity:
70%
Wind:
WSW 18 gust 25 mph
Visibility:
15 miles

Average high
31.8°F
Average low
16.2°F
Highest temperature (1938-2013)
58.8°F1984
All these heat records in Winter remind me of one of my favorite tunes from the 1970's by Kansas:

They say the sea turns so dark that
You know it's time, you see the sign
They say the point demons guard is
An ocean grave for all the brave
Was it you that said, how long, how long
How long to the point of know return?



Image result for point of know return album cover
It does feel like weather changes are happening Faster Than Expected, almost like some sort of abrupt change is occurring ....

Anyway, in Houston I saw new growth on my trees over a month ago, blooms on my Citrus 3 weeks ago at the very end of January. Office mates with severe allergies have been complaining since at least the Super Bowl (feb 5) about pollen in the air. 5 record warm days already in Feb (including an 87 F day on the 8th) and the most 80 degrees in any winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) since 1889.
Quoting 7. ILwthrfan:

Hitting close to home for me here in Illinois.
Tuscola IL
FEB 1ST-22ND
AVERAGE HIGH (35-40) 37.5 F
2017 AVERAGE HIGH 52.8 F
THAT's 15.3 F ABOVE THE NORM.

AVERAGE LOWS (18-24) 21 F
2017 AVERAGE LOW 33.2 F
THAT's 12.2 F ABOVE THE NORM.

LAST 6 DAYS FEB 17-22
AVERAGE HIGH 39 F
2017 AVERAGE HIGH 70.8 F
THAT's 31.8 F ABOVE THE NORM OVER THE LAST 6 DAYS!


FORECAST FOR NEXT 7 DAYS SAYS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A LET UP WITH WIDESPREAD 6-10 C ABOVE THE NORM FOR ALL AREAS POINTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.






2017-02-23 02:30 Local ⇄ UTC
Data | Wind + Carbon Dioxide Concentration @ Surface
40.49° N, 74.75° W✕
250° @ 7 km/h
472 ppmv
getting closer now faster and faster
maybe cooking the swamp will become a better term
Quoting 13. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe cooking the swamp will become a better term
Well, maybe "cooking of the swamp" is what it will take for the idiots in Washington to wake up to what is happening, but by then too late for all of us, of course. Ahhh, follow the money and denial, always a way to rationalize away the obvious. Especially as those power plant coal ash tailings get dumped in the rivers. Making America great again!. gotta luv it
Quoting 14. HouGalv08:

Well, maybe "cooking of the swamp" is what it will take for the idiots in Washington to wake up to what is happening, but by then too late for all of us, of course.
its already too late been so since 2011 or so
Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its already too late been so since 2011 or so
I agree. I felt we went past the tipping point somewhere between 2011 to 2012. Faster and faster. Quote #3 entry---I think it's 7.5#'s for a gallon of gas, produces 5.5#'s carbon dioxide when burned.
tonight thunder rolls over my head

Detailed Forecast
Issued: 11:00 AM EST Thursday 23 February 2017
date
Detailed Forecast
Today
Cloudy. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this afternoon. Wind southwest 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming northwest 20 gusting to 40 late this afternoon. High 18c.
Tonight
Becoming cloudy this evening. Showers beginning before morning. Risk of a thunderstorm before morning. Fog patches developing near midnight. Wind northwest 20 km/h becoming northeast 20 near midnight.
Quoting 18. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Detailed Forecast
Issued: 11:00 AM EST Thursday 23 February 2017
date
Detailed Forecast
Today
Cloudy. Becoming a mix of sun and cloud this afternoon. Wind southwest 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming northwest 20 gusting to 40 late this afternoon. High 18c.
Tonight
Becoming cloudy this evening. Showers beginning before morning. Risk of a thunderstorm before morning. Fog patches developing near midnight. Wind northwest 20 km/h becoming northeast 20 near midnight.

Sounds more like Summer?
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

How much carbon dioxide is produced by burning gasoline and diesel fuel?

About 19.64 pounds of carbon dioxide (CO2) are produced from burning a gallon of gasoline that does not contain ethanol. About 22.38 pounds of CO2 are produced from burning a gallon of diesel fuel.

EIA estimates1 that U.S. motor gasoline and diesel (distillate) fuel consumption for transportation in 2015 resulted in the emission of about 1,105 million metric tons of CO2 and 440 million metric tons of CO2, respectively, for a total of 1,545 million metric tons of CO2. This total was equivalent to 83% of total U.S. transportation sector CO2 emissions and equivalent to 29% of total U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions in 2015.

Under international agreement, CO2 emissions from the combustion of biomass or biofuels are not included in national greenhouse gas emissions inventories.2 Most of the retail gasoline now sold in the United States contains about 10% fuel ethanol (or E10) by volume. Burning a gallon of E10 produces about 17.68 pounds of CO2 that is emitted from the fossil fuel content. If the CO2 emissions from ethanol combustion are considered, then about 18.95 pounds of CO2 are produced when a gallon of E10 is combusted. About 12.73 pounds of CO2 are produced when a gallon of pure ethanol is combusted.

Biodiesel fuel can be purchased in many states. Biodiesel fuel is sold with various amounts of biodiesel content. B20 is a commonly sold biodiesel fuel. B20 contains 20% biodiesel and 80% petroleum diesel fuel. Burning a gallon of B20 results in the emission of about 17.90 pounds of CO2 that is emitted from the fossil fuel content. If the emissions from burning the biodiesel in B20 are included, then about 22.06 pounds of CO2 are produced. About 20.77 pounds of CO2 are produced from burning a gallon of B100 (100% biodiesel).

1 As of April 26, 2016; preliminary estimates.
My local power company sends out a power usage summary once a month, and this month's noted that the average temperature for the last 28 days was an average of 6.7F higher than the corresponding period last year, just outside Charlotte, NC. My cherries, peaches and camellias are blooming nicely.
Quoting 19. PlazaRed:


Sounds more like Summer?
feels like summer my garbage room floor has that summer time greasy feel to it and my underground parking garage looks like a rain storm went by inside everything has a wet look to it humidity levels are like 70 percent now
Quoting #20 entry---I stand corrected and informed, and not as much an ignoramus as before.
The daily ice is looking a bit thin on the sea to say the least!



Link

406.07 ppm CO2 and rising will continue to murder Winters,..as we continue to pump it into the Biosphere.
I just came back from a walk down to my creek, I can't ever recall frogs and water skippers in February.
Quoting 21. OviedoWatcher:

My local power company sends out a power usage summary once a month, and this month's noted that the average temperature for the last 28 days was an average of 6.7F higher than the corresponding period last year, just outside Charlotte, NC. My cherries, peaches and camellias are blooming nicely.

Plums along my street in College Park MD are about 20% bloomed 2/22. Probably full bloom by this weekend. First daffodils Saturday 2/18 and now a lot of scattered ones 2/22. No cherry or bradford pears yet. My broccoli survived the winter in my backyard and is heading now. Grass is starting to green up but not grow yet except for perennial ryegrass which will need mowing this weekend. (Perennial ryegrass is not good for this area becuase it often summerkills but for winter cover it's the greenest of any grass) I've planted spinach and broccoli seedlings outside but the coming NORMAL March weather after about 3/4 argues against planting anything more tender than that. We still get down to about 20F regularly this time of year.
Quoting 27. gr8lakebreeze:

I just came back from a walk down to my creek, I can't ever recall frogs and water skippers in February.


Spring peepers start coming out in late february here in DC. But none this year.. too DRY!
Global Warming and Oddball Winter Weather

Global warming is having a seemingly peculiar effect on winter in the continental United States according to NWF's report, Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming's Wake-Up Call for the Northern United States (pdf).




Since the 1970s, December-February temperature increases have ranged from 1 to 2 degrees in the Pacific Northwest to about 4 degrees in the Northeast to more than 6 degrees in Alaska.

Winters are getting shorter, too. Spring arrives 10-14 days earlier than it did just 20 years ago.

Man with snow blower
Global warming is bringing a clear trend toward heavier precipitation events.
Many areas are seeing bigger and more intense snowstorms, especially in the upper Midwest and Northeast.

Global warming is shifting storm tracks northward. Areas from the Dakotas eastward to northern Michigan have seen a trend toward more heavy snowfall season.

Many nasty pests are expanding further north or are no longer being kept in check by frosts or sufficiently cold temperatures.
The ticks responsible for carrying Lyme disease are one example of projected range expansion as winters become milder

Millions of acres of pine forests across the Western United States, Alaska, and Canada have been decimated by pine bark beetle infestations in recent years. Higher temperatures have enhanced winter survival of the beetle larvae.

Large economic uncertainty and potential losses are in store for many communities, especially in regions where winter recreation provides significant tourism revenue.
A number of Northeastern ski areas are likely to see a 25-45% decline in the length of their ski season by the 2070s.

Lakes across the Midwest are freezing later and have thinner ice, often leading to ice conditions to dangerous for safe ice fishing.

Removing snow and ice from our roadways cost states more than $1.2 billion each year on average from 1998 to 2007.


The report also includes recommendations for reducing the risk:

Curbing global warming pollution to minimize future oddball winter weather.
Accounting for greater variability in snow removal and flood management programs.
Safeguarding wildlife, fish and habitats from more unpredictable winter weather.


Download Odd-ball Winter Weather: Global Warming’s Wake-Up Call for the Northern United States. (2.25 MB pdf)
Quoting 26. Patrap:


406.07 ppm CO2 and rising will continue to murder Winters,..as we continue to pump it into the Biosphere.


I'm working on techniques for winter vegetable gardening. This winter was a loss.. I need seasonable cold to test them. Much more progress 2013-14 and 2014-15 than this year. 2015-16 caused me the kinds of problems I saw in Florida
when I lived there, extreme warmth in December caused loss of hardiness so seasonable cold in January was unexpectedly devastating.

Quoting 13. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe cooking the swamp will become a better term


When you think of it,the north pole will be ice free before the end of Trump's term (not that he's going to finish it....I doubt he'll clear a year). The winter that follows is sure to be goofy as hell, and the climate will never be even close to what used to be 'normal' ever again.

It should be obvious that it is way too late at this point do do anything to prevent catastrophic climate change, the question is what is to be done in the face of the consequences.
4 new monthly records set today in France, 3 in the Alps, 1 in Alsace region (Eastern France) - source/tweet, with a few other remarkable temperature readings: @meteofrance (official account).
Quoting 31. georgevandenberghe:


I'm working on techniques for winter vegetable gardening. This winter was a loss.. I need seasonable cold to test them. Much more progress 2013-14 and 2014-15 than this year. 2015-16 caused me the kinds of problems I saw in Florida
when I lived there, extreme warmth in December caused loss of hardiness so seasonable cold in January was unexpectedly devastating.




You should open a Blog here. It will keep your focus on what you know.

We have plenty of RAM for them.

Try it..

Mango filled trees in PV Mexico.
It has been quite nice here, even need a long sleeve shirt in the morning.
Arctic Implosion, and continents on lower latitudes will lose the very concept of winter quickest. Once upon a time there was a country where they invented words like 'blizzard', 'wind chill' and sung songs like 'Winter in America is cold...'.
Rappél: Arctic Implosion. You need to dig it.

Meantime, Thomas aka Doris is pummeling the Netherlands but mostly as a nuisance scorpioning empty trucks with Polish drivers (reminding us Dutch we should pay special attention to warning those accustomed to less windy climates - they cannot fathom what '9 Beaufort' or 'gusts to 120 km/h' really means). And a plane pressed one of its landing gear away.
In numbers, the gale is underperforming a bit to most expectations until now. Subsided a little bit. But: the sharp trough is swinging around and I just saw the far southwest of the country (Vlissingen) reporting storm force which it didn't even have yet today. Some more is coming, apparently.
Quoting 34. MontanaZephyr:



When you think of it,the north pole will be ice free before the end of Trump's term

Well there is one very interesting bet.
On the cooler, wetter side...
California snowpack currently sitting at 191% of average for this date, in terms of snow water content. Data from 100 sensors in the Sierra, southern Cascades, and Trinity Alps.
CA Snow Water Content


Quoting 34. MontanaZephyr:



When you think of it,the north pole will be ice free before the end of Trump's term (not that he's going to finish it....I doubt he'll clear a year). The winter that follows is sure to be goofy as hell, and the climate will never be even close to what used to be 'normal' ever again.

It should be obvious that it is way too late at this point do do anything to prevent catastrophic climate change, the question is what is to be done in the face of the consequences.


Won't be ice free before late August :-)
I heard a locust (cicada) in December and January 2nd, and watched it fly over the house in backyard. Never heard or seen those out late in a season EVER. Last time I hear one of them is supposed to be October.

Oak tree is now dropping leaves a full month ahead of schedule and replacing with new ones as I type.
Quoting 43. RitaEvac:

I heard a locust (cicada) in December and January 2nd, and watched it fly over the house in backyard. Never heard or seen those out late in a season EVER. Last time I hear one of them is supposed to be October.

Oak tree is now dropping leaves a full month ahead of schedule and replacing with new ones as I type.

This sounds like Lewis Carroll.
Quoting 39. cRRKampen:

Meantime, Thomas aka Doris is pummeling the Netherlands ...

German weather reporter earlier had been at one of your beaches (a bit north of Amsterdam). Winds were pretty much blowing! Although the talking in his video below is German you get the picture:


wetteronline.de: WetterReporter kaempft mit Orkan (23.02.2017) (Weather reporter struggeling with hurricane force winds). He says he had measured winds of 143 km/h = 89 mph. And moreover: while it was quite chilly at this beach with 10C (50F), further south in Germany it was above 20C (68F) at this time.

Here in Mainz gales are intermittently howling around the near spire of the cathedral - this sound is always the sign of a pretty decent storm, and we are not even in the strongest windfield. But even louder and more frequent are the cheers and bawls of the carnivalists/drunkards and the live music from the bands of street carnival, lol. Normal soundscape at Rhine this time of the year :-)

Edit (with a nice video from Cologne):
Gale-force winds dampen German Carnival celebrations
Several Carnival celebrations have been canceled or cut short due to extreme weather. Thousands of revelers still braved gale-force winds to party on the streets, others took cover in bars.
DW, Feb 23, 2017
Here are the updated 2:00 PM EST surface vort and sheer charts for the low off of Florida; all the heat and the Gulf stream is helping to build convection off the East but it remains a very titled circulation due to the strong shear.............If only a few degrees warmer, a little less shear, and Florida not being the way over the Western Quad..........................................


Quoting 49. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



that's over Hawaii
470+ over eastern north America today



That is why it is in Hawaii.

Logic, dictates...
always.



But still "very" impressive for February..........Would be real Interesting if the COC was able to drift further South in that pocket of lower shear to the South East of Grand Bahama Island............................





TS winds
2017-02-23 02:30 Local ⇄ UTC
Data | Wind + Carbon Dioxide Concentration @ Surface
20.80° N, 156.41° W✕
65° @ 27 km/h
412 ppmv
40.78° N, 73.83° W✕
225° @ 16 km/h
480 ppmv
29.77° N, 90.49° W✕
160° @ 8 km/h
421 ppmv

Hawaii new York city new Orleans
north pole

89.90° N, 158.89° E✕
215° @ 19 km/h
422 ppmv
south pole
89.16° S, 12.12° E✕
45° @ 26 km/h
409 ppmv

Measuring CO2 levels from the volcano at Mauna Loa

Posted on 25 October 2010 by Andy Skuce


The observatory near the summit of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii has been recording the amount of carbon dioxide in the air since 1958. This is the longest continuous record of direct measurements of CO2 and it shows a steadily increasing trend from year to year; combined with a saw-tooth effect that is caused by changes in the rate of plant growth through the seasons. This curve is commonly known as the Keeling Curve, named after Charles Keeling, the American scientist who started the project.

Why Mauna Loa? Early attempts to measure CO2 in the USA and Scandinavia found that the readings varied a lot due to the influence of growing plants and the exhaust from motors. Mauna Loa is ideal because it is so remote from big population centres. Also, on tropical islands at night, the prevailing winds blow from the land out to sea, which effect brings clean, well-mixed Central Pacific air from high in the atmosphere to the observatory. This removes any interference coming from the vegetation lower down on the island.

But how about gas from the volcano? It is true that volcanoes blow out CO2 from time to time and that this can interfere with the readings. Most of the time, though, the prevailing winds blow the volcanic gasses away from the observatory. But when the winds do sometimes blow from active vents towards the observatory, the influence from the volcano is obvious on the normally consistent records and any dubious readings can be easily spotted and edited out (Ryan, 1995).

I'm one for science and not hokum pikum... but I'll have to say some Mayan astronomer picked managed a pretty good coincidental pick of "the end of the world" to start their calendar over on December 21, 2012. (I agree with you, things look very, very glum absent some miracle... and we've probably already written the fate of our planet and humankind.)

Quoting 15. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its already too late been so since 2011 or so
Quoting 44. cRRKampen:


This sounds like Lewis Carroll.


Who's that
Quoting 10. goavs4:

It does feel like weather changes are happening Faster Than Expected, almost like some sort of abrupt change is occurring ....

Anyway, in Houston I saw new growth on my trees over a month ago, blooms on my Citrus 3 weeks ago at the very end of January. Office mates with severe allergies have been complaining since at least the Super Bowl (feb 5) about pollen in the air. 5 record warm days already in Feb (including an 87 F day on the 8th) and the most 80 degrees in any winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) since 1889.


I am also in the Houston area and I can attest to the high pollen counts. My Mulberry tree began to leaf out nearly a month ago. This is, by far, the earliest I have seen the tree leaf out. The Pecan trees are still dormant, but they usually leaf out in late April or early May. All the other trees will be fully leafed before the Pecan trees even start to leaf out.

BTW, it warmed to 76 degrees at the Kemah Boardwalk last Tuesday. There were a lot of boats heading out into the bay. Sadly, the Boardwalk Beast was never brought out.
Boardwalk Beast
# RitaEvac - Lewis Carroll - wrote 'Alice in Wonderland' - for example, see here:

http://lewiscarrollsociety.org.uk/

and here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Carroll

Disney made a pretty good effort of doing a full length cartoon version; the bit with "The walrus and the carpenter" includes some quite freaky visual images, worth a look:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00WCEbKM_SE

Quoting 61. gr8lakebreeze:

WHY YOU SHOULDN’T HOPE FOR AN EARLY SPRING
Increasingly common false spring events are leaving crops and wild plants vulnerable to subsequent freezes, creating a cascade of consequences for ecosystems.



We thought 2010 was weird. But 2012 was really weird,” says Jake Weltzin, executive director of the USA National Phenology Network.

Unusually early warming, known as “false spring,” is becoming increasingly common as climate changes. Its effects are also prompting increasing concern. For when warm temperatures awaken dormant plants and animals prematurely, they can throw the timing of seasonal events crucial to an entire ecological food web off kilter. The results can cause devastating harm to both wild and cultivated species. False spring events have caused enormous losses in U.S. fruit crops, damaged large swaths of forest and decimated sensitive California butterfly populations.

Distinct Trend

Naturalists and scientists, farmers and gardeners have long taken note of when plants leaf out and bud each year — part of the study of seasonal events known as phenology. Scientists and more casual backyard observers alike have noted an ongoing shift toward earlier springs across North America over the past 50 to 100 years. At the same time, a growing number of scientific studies have documented the advancing emergence of buds, blooms and hibernating animals.

Since the early 1900s, about two-thirds of the species studied have shifted toward earlier spring blooming, breeding or migrating. This is true for every major group of species studied, including amphibians, birds, fish, invertebrates and mammals as well as trees, nonwoody plants, corals and plankton. These changes have been observed on every major continent and ocean, according to Camille Parmesan, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin, whose research focuses on the biological impacts of climate change.


Quoting 27. gr8lakebreeze:

I just came back from a walk down to my creek, I can't ever recall frogs and water skippers in February.


I have glass sliding doors in my bedroom and there was a tree frog on the outside of one of the doors two weeks ago. I have been seeing lizards for the past month. There are bugs everywhere, including some mosquitoes.
Quoting 31. georgevandenberghe:


I'm working on techniques for winter vegetable gardening. This winter was a loss.. I need seasonable cold to test them. Much more progress 2013-14 and 2014-15 than this year. 2015-16 caused me the kinds of problems I saw in Florida
when I lived there, extreme warmth in December caused loss of hardiness so seasonable cold in January was unexpectedly devastating.




I suspect that the future greenhouse will be air conditioned for the cold weather varieties during the winter months.
We have murdered the World.

Quoting 43. RitaEvac:

I heard a locust (cicada) in December and January 2nd, and watched it fly over the house in backyard. Never heard or seen those out late in a season EVER. Last time I hear one of them is supposed to be October.

Oak tree is now dropping leaves a full month ahead of schedule and replacing with new ones as I type.


Do you want to borrow my rake? ;)
Is It Okay to Enjoy the Warm Winters of Climate Change?
The weather is nice, but it reminds us of the problems to come.
The Atlantic, Robinson Meyer 10:45 AM ET

Apart from what is said in this article: Watch out with a very warm winter and early spring. InGermany, we had some of these in a row in the last years. Plants are greening, trees are budding - and then a sudden frost in April or May kills them, as it happened to quite a lot of shrubs and little trees on my roof garden a couple of years ago.
Quoting 67. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you want to borrow my rake? ;)


Nah, just mow em over and mulch them up with push mower like I always do. ;)
Quoting 69. RitaEvac:



Nah, just mow em over and mulch them up with push mower like I always do. ;)


I see that we use the same method for leaf removal from the lawn. ;) I keep the rake around so that people will think that I actually would do such a thing. :)
Deep N Atl. low (939 hPa) forecast for Sat, Feb 25:


(Source: TropicalTidbits.com)

The low will probably contribute to abnormally mild air being brought to Greenland and parts of the Arctic Ocean close to the N Pole 1-2 days later.
Quoting 45. barbamz:


[..]Gale-force winds dampen German Carnival celebrations
Several Carnival celebrations have been canceled or cut short due to extreme weather. Thousands of revelers still braved gale-force winds to party on the streets, others took cover in bars.
DW, Feb 23, 2017

Aforeannounced second wind peak as the trough has swung around and NW gusts hit the ground: it has upped the raw data a bit, adding Hoek van Holland as the third station registering storm force 10 (10 minute average) and beating the IJmuiden gust of 115 km/h with one click.
These gusts (modified, three times ten is 1 in a couple years) are nothing remarkable on Dutch coastal stations, a multiple times per year thing. However 100 winds and gale/severe gale sustained went very far inland and a lot of kids won't have experienced anything like it.
Also, it is no fun for carnival. Local time is 21:30 and rush hour was forewarned and slack for a Thursday and over now, though Rotterdam has been in a bad fix.
Didn't expect Mainz to take that much, btw.
Quoting 66. Patrap:

We have murdered the World.



Nah. Just ours.
The Bahamas low is finally starting to wrap some clouds on the Western side, just North of the Bahamas, about 150 miles due East of Melborne:




Quoting 59. RitaEvac:



Who's that

What I meant was your writing had me imaging things that came from a wonder world, your text was literature, it 'rocked'.

But what I said yesterday somewhere: your kind of report, re content, gets me every time, because climate change worries me ultimate.
Hey all, quick question - I've never been able to figure out what exactly "SL" means on the US Drought Monitor. I know that "S" is short term, and "L" is long term, but "SL" is never defined on the USDM website or graphics as far as I can tell. Any idea?
Quoting 60. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



BTW, it warmed to 76 degrees at the Kemah Boardwalk last Tuesday. There were a lot of boats heading out into the bay. Sadly, the Boardwalk Beast was never brought out.
Boardwalk Beast

I keep my boat at Seabrook Marina/Shipyard. I saw The Beast there in dry dock getting some repairs. I've already gone sailing several times this year in shorts and t-shirt...It's warm out there!
[Edited] Zapata, Texas, reached 101F today.



A reminder: it's still February.
This is really going to push some fun surf into SE coast. Tomorrow morning should be fun in NC at some sheltered south facing breaks. Dawn wind should be light northerly. No boots, no gloves, no hood in February. No problem. I suspect this swell will outperform models on size. Some inlets are going to be tricky for boaters the next 48 hours.

Quoting 53. HurricaneFan:

TS winds

And the winds have shifted a bit out of the E-NE just off-shore of the Cape:

SCRIPPS
Location: 28.523N 80.188W
Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 20:00:00 UTC
Significant Wave Height: 5.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 10 sec
Average Wave Period: 7.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (76°)
Water Temperature: 73.8 F


Quoting 76. wilsonbiggs:

Hey all, quick question - I've never been able to figure out what exactly "SL" means on the US Drought Monitor. I know that "S" is short term, and "L" is long term, but "SL" is never defined on the USDM website or graphics as far as I can tell. Any idea?
That's *generally* what they use to indicate the presence of both short-term and long-term drought conditions in areas too small to label both at lower map resolutions.
Quoting 46. Patrap:

CO2 earth@CO2_earth Feb 19
More
405.91 parts per million #CO2 in the 7th week of 2017 Up from 403.45 in 2016 #NOAA weekly data via https://www.co2.earth/weekly-co2


We seem to be running at an annual rate of CO2 increase of about 2.5 to 3 PPM.
Even if CO2 omissions were stabilised the rate of CO2 increase would carry on for many years, so in 30+ years we would be pushing 500 PPM!
As we know or at least can assume, the rates are probably not going to stabilise very soon, so the outlook is predictably bleak.
Added to the above the reduction of vegetation will also probably increase, hence leading to less CO2 being taken up and converted into vegetable matter.
Short of a mass die off of humans, there is no easy solution to the CO2 problem! The die off will probably be in the long term, so we, or those of us who will live to see it will have to face the consequences of those who will not be here to see the results of the CO2 increase.
I would hazard a guess that the increase in the CO2 PPMs will probably peak at about 4 PPM per year inside the next 10-15 years. Then things are going to get very interesting.
Only my personal point of view of course, no back up or published matter provided.
Quoting 61. gr8lakebreeze:

WHY YOU SHOULDN’T HOPE FOR AN EARLY SPRING
Increasingly common false spring events are leaving crops and wild plants vulnerable to subsequent freezes, creating a cascade of consequences for ecosystems.



As I've posted other times, the warm March of 2016 was followed by some freezes in April in the DC area. The low in my area of 25F on April 6 was not noteworthy itself though close to a record. But plants were two weeks advanced and this freeze was devastating ESPECIALLY to native species. Black Locust and Mulberry, blooms both important food plants for birds and insects, were 99% wiped out. That was the first year in fifty resident here that I'd seen this happen.
Quoting 72. cRRKampen:
Didn't expect Mainz to take that much, btw.

Well, it was in the forecast. According to measurements in the last couple of hours stations in my region recorded gales around 70 km/h (43mph). Nothing catastrophic but enough to get the upper stony galeries of our old cathedral serving as a kind of wind organ - but not enough to stop the revelers in our alleys celebrating, lol. Currently it depends on the presence of rain showers whether the strong winds with hurricane force in an upper air layer (all over Germany today, and felt a such on the tops of our mountains) will get mixed down to the surface in the cities of the plains like Mainz. As I write this, there's a bit of rain - and the howling resumes, lol.

----------------------------

Another article related to the blog topic:

Extreme weather threatens maple syrup industry in Michigan
Posted: Feb 23, 2017 03:35 PM EST
The Associated Press reported this week on the impact of climate variability on maple syrup production in the Northwest region of the United States. According to the article, warmer weather in recent years has affected the production of sap and the sweetness of sap – both crucial aspects in ensuring the success of the maple syrup industry. In Michigan, the warm winter this year has the potential of being extremely harmful to the local maple syrup industry. ...
Quoting 76. wilsonbiggs:

Hey all, quick question - I've never been able to figure out what exactly "SL" means on the US Drought Monitor. I know that "S" is short term, and "L" is long term, but "SL" is never defined on the USDM website or graphics as far as I can tell. Any idea?


Since they indicate that is describing "physical effects" I would say that area has a combination of both:

S = Short-Term, typically less than 6 months (e.g. agriculture, grasslands)
L = Long-Term, typically more than 6 months (e.g. hydrology, ecology)

U.S. Drought Monitor Classification Scheme
Quoting 71. 999Ai2016:

Deep N Atl. low (939 hPa) forecast for Sat, Feb 25:


(Source: TropicalTidbits.com)

The low will probably contribute to abnormally mild air being brought to Greenland and the Arctic Ocean close to the N Pole 1-2 days later.


Cause, y'know, that's exactly what the arctic needs right now. What the hell.

Speaking of ridiculous warmth, Philadelphia has now, for the third time in 5 days, approached daily record high temperature. It's 72F right now, approaching the record of 75 from 1874 and breaking the modern-accuracy record of 68 from 1977. Not only is that ridiculous, but it's a couple degrees higher than it was forecasted to be yesterday by the mesoscale models (69F by the NAM, 70F by the WRF). Current forecasts have it being between 67F (WRF-ARW) and 71F (NAM-4km) tomorrow; if the recent trend of under-forecasting the temperature continues, we could approach the record again - 1985's record of 74F.

For context, the average high temperature for this time of the month is 46F; the closest we're going to get to that in the next week and a half (based on the current forecast) is 47 on Sunday. In addition, the average forecasted high temperature over the next 7 days is 64F, equivalent to the average high April 18-24th here.

And here's yet another fun fact: the high temperature has been below freezing only once in Philly since January 10th. That's absolutely ridiculous.

What happened to winter???

Current saved IR loop of Doris-Thomas with their (as the gender of the storm isn't known) center now over uttermost northern Germany and the windfield south of it (map of current warnings in Germany). Trough of cold air lacking behind with more strong winds lashing the Netherlands right now.
Cyclonic structure of this strong but shortliving strom is already decaying though. This was the strom earlier today (source):


Click to enlarge. Apart from the damage: beautiful storm!
From The Guardian:
Climate scientists face harassment, threats and fears of 'McCarthyist attacks'

From The Climate Science Defense Fund:
New Allegations Against NOAA Scientists — And Why They’re Incorrec

And~

Just got back from a rally at our state capitol for HB 504, promoting solar power in the state. It was a high energy rally, for sure. Here is a link where you can watch some of it, and there were some interesting speeches by long time Montana businesses to the effect that "This system paid for itself in five years" or "This system generates 50 KW and paid for itself in three years" and "We are not cabin hippies off in the woods". etc.

Montana Renewable Energy Association

Also from CSDF:
Handling Political Harassment & Legal Intimidation: A Pocket Guide

Thanks so much @nrtiwlnvragn and @Neapolitan for the info! That's about what I figured. It's crazy how much California has recovered, albeit in one of the worst ways possible.
87 °F in Stillwater, OK this afternoon. We had to turn on the air conditioning here at work.

My fruit trees are starting to bud. I have a redbud that is days from blooming. Dianthus, jasmine, and quince are blooming happily, and I'll have tulips and daffodils blooming together next week.

This is hard on agriculture. No local peaches again this year, I'd guess.

I saw Turkey Vultures migrating north this weekend. They usually don't arrive until late March or April. I've seen Sulphur butterflies in my yard. Too early for them, too.

Crazy, crazy stuff.
The long-range radar loops, which I can't post from this computer, are showing that a coc is trying to consolidate due North of Grand Bahama Island and due East of Titusville...............Patrick?

[Edit]

And winds on the coast to the Southwest  of the coc at Ft. Pierce are out of the West; the circulation is trying to consolidate and work it's way to the surface:

NOSLocation: 26.613N 80.034W
Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 20:30:00 UTC
Winds: W (260) at 8.0 kt gusting to 9.9 
Here are the portions from the TWD as of Noon on the area of interest:

TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1213 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A broad area of low pressure focused on a 1001 mb centered across
the central Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral is producing
near gale to gale force SE winds generally between 90 nm and 240
nm in the northeast quadrant. These gale force conditions are
expected to persist off the coast of Florida in the SW North Atlc
waters through 25/1200 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of low pressure is analyzed across the Florida
peninsula that stretches influence eastward across the much of
the SW North Atlc W of 70W. In addition to the area of near gale
to gale force winds occurring with the low as it tracks
eastward, scattered to numerous showers and widely scattered
tstms are occurring across a large area N of 20W W of 70W.

The low is expected to be slow to move E-NE and N of the
discussion area by Saturday. Farther east, a middle to upper
level low is centered across the central North Atlc near 41N46W
that supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near
32N44W extending SW to 23N51W, continuing as a stationary front to
18N65W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring within 180 to
240 nm east of the front, as well as within 420 nm southeast of a
line from 20N48W to 11N60W. Finally, the remainder of the eastern
Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a
1028 mb high centered S of the Azores near 38W26W.
For all those on Iwo Jima,your Generation, all your sacrifices and raising of the Colors 72 years ago this day will never be in vain.





A easy way to update the prior radar post is to quote it and take the code embed out and just repost it in a comment,preview first though.

Quoting 97. HurricaneFan:





A lot of places in the east side of FL saw beneficial rains to help with the drought. Not as much on the west side, but places like Tampa and Lakeland still saw over an inch.

101. Ed22
Quoting 93. weathermanwannabe:

The long-range radar loops, which I can't post from this computer, are showing that a coc is trying to consolidate due North of Grand Bahama Island and due East of Titusville...............Patrick?

[Edit]

And winds on the coast to the South of the coc at Ft. Pierce are out of the West; the circulation is trying to consolidate and work it's way to the surface:

NOSLocation:�26.613N 80.034W
Date:�Thu, 23 Feb 2017 20:30:00 UTC
Winds:�W (260) at 8.0 kt gusting to 9.9�
Low pressure system has stalled right their too, the latest surface vort is getting better defined too; this system fighting shear and doing a good work at it too, this system is going to spring a surprise very soon.
This is a good exercise for the upcoming Atlantic season; the strongest vorticity is at the mid level, still broad at the surface (but possibly working down based on current surface observations), and the ULL over the Carolinas is enhancing the convection (these are the updated 5:00 PM charts released a few minutes early):

Lower:


Mid:

Upper:
Quoting 92. gunhilda:

87 °F in Stillwater, OK this afternoon. We had to turn on the air conditioning here at work.

My fruit trees are starting to bud. I have a redbud that is days from blooming. Dianthus, jasmine, and quince are blooming happily, and I'll have tulips and daffodils blooming together next week.

This is hard on agriculture. No local peaches again this year, I'd guess.

I saw Turkey Vultures migrating north this weekend. They usually don't arrive until late March or April. I've seen Sulphur butterflies in my yard. Too early for them, too.

Crazy, crazy stuff.

I seen a flock of geese overhead yesterday in afternoon as well but they were heading east in a v coming from the west weird if migrating it should of been due north from south

And forgot to post the updated shear chart............The developing COC is too far to the NE to take advantage of the lower shear pocket just East of the Bahamas and with water temps around 72F, it would be sub-tropical (cold cored as noted in a post below) if it was to keep building convection and a well organized lower level coc North of the Bahamas..................If I were a betting man, I would give it about a 20% shot at the moment because of the sheer.





[Updated] Zapata, Texas, reached 101F today.



A reminder: it's still February.


This is the loop of weather stations in the US approaching or surpassing daily and monthly heat records in the whole last week including today (click it to enlarge). Source.
With this good night from Germany (summaries of the damage of still active windstorm Doris-Thomas will be available tomorrow or in the days to come).
Quoting 105. Neapolitan:

[Updated] Zapata, Texas, reached 101F today.



A reminder: it's still February.
yep by july it will be 121
I am on robin watch if they show up it will be 2 months early that means it will be start of summer by mid april
Quoting 85. georgevandenberghe:



As I've posted other times, the warm March of 2016 was followed by some freezes in April in the DC area. The low in my area of 25F on April 6 was not noteworthy itself though close to a record. But plants were two weeks advanced and this freeze was devastating ESPECIALLY to native species. Black Locust and Mulberry, blooms both important food plants for birds and insects, were 99% wiped out. That was the first year in fifty resident here that I'd seen this happen.


I remember that well George, I appreciate your anecdotes especially the gardening ones.
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I seen a flock of geese overhead yesterday in afternoon as well but they were heading east in a v coming from the west weird if migrating it should of been due north from south




I saw the same thing this morning on my commute.
Old record of 63F (1875)
High at Concord today 64F
only hit 63F at the house, but up to 70F at work
Quoting 73. cRRKampen:


Nah. Just ours.


Killer whales are ‘terrorizing’ narwhal as melting Arctic ice gives them easier access to prey

“I think the narwhal are scared to death,” said Ferguson. “Watching your brother or sister or mother get killed and eaten by a killer whale would cause a little post-traumatic stress in most of us.”

Ferguson has a theory on how the narwhal know.

“Killer whales are quiet,” he said. “They almost don’t communicate while they’re hunting.

“But once they make a kill, they tend to celebrate and make a lot of noise. And quite likely, in the chase, the narwhal are able to communicate and somehow this gets passed on down through the different groups.”

The predation drives the narwhal from their richest feeding grounds.


Extensive year-round sea ice once limited the number of killer whales in those waters. The decline of that ice due to global warming means killer whales arrive earlier, leave later, and are greater in number.
113. bwi
Dulles airport broke a record high today, but I longer-term records for DCA and Baltimore were not broken I don't think (could be corrected...)

What's really weird about a day in the mid-70s in February isn't the temp but the duration of the warmth and the lack of rain.

Usually a freakish warm winter day is just ahead of a strong cold front with warm wet air drawn up from the Gulf.

The current pattern is just a flat warm pattern for day after day, warm and sunny and dry.
Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am to check back on how the low is doing.


Quoting 105. Neapolitan:

[Updated] Zapata, Texas, reached 101F today.



A reminder: it's still February.


Nothing to see here. Move along and keep going to the Trump rallies.
Extreme weather threatens maple syrup industry in Michigan

“So far, the sugar content this year has been really low. When I asked around, the general consensus of fellow farmers is the same. When it stays warm too many nights in a row, the buds on the tree will swell. Once they swell, the sap will turn bitter and the season is done,” Tassier said.

The lower sugar content means it will take a lot more sap to make one gallon of syrup. According to the Michigan Maple Syrup Association, the average amount of sap it takes to make one gallon of syrup in Michigan would be about 40 gallons. This year, Tassier reported that the low sugar content resulted in some farmers needing 85 gallons of sap to make one gallon of syrup – more than twice the normal amount.


Link
From Climate Central:

The U.S. is Poised to Set a Record-Setting Record

California's biblical deluge has occupied many a meteorologists’ mind this February. But another notable story is unfolding across the eastern U.S.

Unseasonable warmth has kickstarted spring up to a month early in the Southeast, cut into already paltry Great Lakes ice cover and created skiing conditions more reminiscent of April in the Northeast. But the most outstanding aspect of the persistent February warmth is what it has done to the ratio of record highs to record lows.

There have been 3,146 record highs set for the month-to-date compared to only 27 record lows, ensuring February will go down as the 27th month in a row with more highs than lows. The astonishing 116-to-1 ratio of highs to lows would easily set a record for the most lopsided monthly ratio in history. There have also been 248 monthly record highs and no monthly record lows.


Record highs are outpacing record lows in February 2017 at a record-setting pace.

“If the eventual ratio is above 50-to-1 this would be historic,” Guy Walton, a meteorologist who tracks record temperatures, said.

The increasing ratio of record highs vs. record lows is one of the hallmarks of climate change. By raising the baseline temperature, climate change has made it more likely for record highs to be set while decreasing the odds of record lows. In a world that wasn’t warming, that ratio would remain constant right around 1-to-1, but research has shown that hasn’t been the case with highs outpacing lows more and more with each passing decade.

The trend is expected to continue into the future. By mid-century, the ratio could be as high as 15-to-1 in any given year unless carbon pollution is curtailed.

Click here to read more.
Coral reef images show new bleaching at Great Barrier Reef
9:55am EST - 01:06


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association warns that large amounts of coral bleaching will occur in the northern part of the Great Barrier Reef over the next three months. Jim Drury reports.

Link
119. flsky
Yet another thing to stock up on before it disappears....

Quoting 116. RobertWC:

Extreme weather threatens maple syrup industry in Michigan

“So far, the sugar content this year has been really low. When I asked around, the general consensus of fellow farmers is the same. When it stays warm too many nights in a row, the buds on the tree will swell. Once they swell, the sap will turn bitter and the season is done,” Tassier said.

The lower sugar content means it will take a lot more sap to make one gallon of syrup. According to the Michigan Maple Syrup Association, the average amount of sap it takes to make one gallon of syrup in Michigan would be about 40 gallons. This year, Tassier reported that the low sugar content resulted in some farmers needing 85 gallons of sap to make one gallon of syrup – more than twice the normal amount.


Link
120. bwi
Flood watch in northern New England and the Adirondacks not great for this ski season!
Quoting 77. Greg01:


I keep my boat at Seabrook Marina/Shipyard. I saw The Beast there in dry dock getting some repairs. I've already gone sailing several times this year in shorts and t-shirt...It's warm out there!


Ah! Just on the other side of the 146 bridge from the Kemah Boardwalk. I remember the sailboats waiting for the drawbridge to raise before they put in the new bridge. If my memory serves me well, there was also a drawbridge at Dickenson Bayou on 146.
Big cool down today in Wisconsin. AM high of 49 degrees is "only" 15 degrees above normal. An awesome day by February standards which could be 20 below. 1889 it ain't though. Seems like winter gave us a pass. Only 7 days this winter with a low temperature below zero. On those "cold" days we were 20 degrees away from setting records.
Poachers kill an elephant illegally every 25 minutes

Link
124. Ed22
Quoting 114. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am to check back on how the low is doing.



The Low is pretty well organized, its just need to organize its Low level some more for it to be considered Sub-tropical storm Arlene.
Quoting 123. RobertWC:

Poachers kill an elephant illegally every 25 minutes

Link


I just saw a link on twitter where armed poachers stormed a rhino sanctuary to get ivory, I didn't click it, to actually see graphic evidence of that would make me ill.
I don't think the low is really close to SS status, but I'm wondering if we'll see a STWO at some point. Probably not though.
Quoting 41. oldnewmex:

On the cooler, wetter side...
California snowpack currently sitting at 191% of average for this date, in terms of snow water content. Data from 100 sensors in the Sierra, southern Cascades, and Trinity Alps.
CA Snow Water Content

Great news for cities and agriculture.
Quoting 127. BayFog:


Great news for cities and agriculture.

Also great news (at least in the Sierra) for forest fires, for another year.
Quoting 117. Xandra:

From Climate Central:

The U.S. is Poised to Set a Record-Setting Record

California's biblical deluge has occupied many a meteorologists’ mind this February. But another notable story is unfolding across the eastern U.S.

Unseasonable warmth has kickstarted spring up to a month early in the Southeast, cut into already paltry Great Lakes ice cover and created skiing conditions more reminiscent of April in the Northeast. But the most outstanding aspect of the persistent February warmth is what it has done to the ratio of record highs to record lows.

There have been 3,146 record highs set for the month-to-date compared to only 27 record lows, ensuring February will go down as the 27th month in a row with more highs than lows. The astonishing 116-to-1 ratio of highs to lows would easily set a record for the most lopsided monthly ratio in history. There have also been 248 monthly record highs and no monthly record lows.


Record highs are outpacing record lows in February 2017 at a record-setting pace.

“If the eventual ratio is above 50-to-1 this would be historic,” Guy Walton, a meteorologist who tracks record temperatures, said.

The increasing ratio of record highs vs. record lows is one of the hallmarks of climate change. By raising the baseline temperature, climate change has made it more likely for record highs to be set while decreasing the odds of record lows. In a world that wasn’t warming, that ratio would remain constant right around 1-to-1, but research has shown that hasn’t been the case with highs outpacing lows more and more with each passing decade.

The trend is expected to continue into the future. By mid-century, the ratio could be as high as 15-to-1 in any given year unless carbon pollution is curtailed.

Click here to read more.


I'm detecting a trend,..

Am I right?




The USMC Flag Raising at Mt. Suribachi on Iwo Jima happened 72 years ago today.


Photo by Joe Rosenthal




USMC Memorial Washington, D.C.




Old English word of the day: eall-īsig - all icy. Pronounced "ay-all-ee-zee"
Quoting 125. gr8lakebreeze:



I just saw a link on twitter where armed poachers stormed a rhino sanctuary to get ivory, I didn't click it, to actually see graphic evidence of that would make me ill.


ya the truth is frightening very very frightening

thunder bolts of lightening

j/k
sorry ok relax keep
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I seen a flock of geese overhead yesterday in afternoon as well but they were heading east in a v coming from the west weird if migrating it should of been due north from south




You can see a few of them locally heading in almost any direction at times. Water. Grain fields. whatever.

My father, who grew up in the '20's and '30's, used to tell me back in the '60's that in the fall and spring that the flocks were sometimes so large that they would blot out the sky. In the days before that the same was once said of the passenger pigeon.
Impressive for February.
Quoting 116. RobertWC:

Extreme weather threatens maple syrup industry in Michigan

“So far, the sugar content this year has been really low. When I asked around, the general consensus of fellow farmers is the same. When it stays warm too many nights in a row, the buds on the tree will swell. Once they swell, the sap will turn bitter and the season is done,” Tassier said.

The lower sugar content means it will take a lot more sap to make one gallon of syrup. According to the Michigan Maple Syrup Association, the average amount of sap it takes to make one gallon of syrup in Michigan would be about 40 gallons. This year, Tassier reported that the low sugar content resulted in some farmers needing 85 gallons of sap to make one gallon of syrup – more than twice the normal amount.


Link


Our family collects sap for making syrup also. It is easy to do just time consuming to boil down. We have noticed there are many factors other than just high temps and low temps although those are key. Over the four weeks or so we can do this the syrup will change in color and flavor four or five times, from a very clear syrup when boiled down to basically a dark molasses in the very end of collecting.

Mind you we are just an extended family doing it and not commercial farmers whose methods are completely differnt
Quoting 133. MontanaZephyr:



You can see a few of them locally heading in almost any direction at times. Water. Grain fields. whatever.

My father, who grew up in the '20's and '30's, used to tell me back in the '60's that in the fall and spring that the flocks were sometimes so large that they would blot out the sky. In the days before that the same was once said of the passenger pigeon.
they don't blot out the sky anymore now its maybe 3 or 4 flocks in spring heading north or south depending if its fall or spring

the locals at least around here don't fly high in the sky like these were cause they never leave they swoop in low and short as they travel from one nut bag too the next along the lakeshore region
Quoting 130. Patrap:

The USMC Flag Raising at Mt. Suribachi on Iwo Jima happened 72 years ago today.


Photo by Joe Rosenthal




USMC Memorial Washington, D.C.






Whenever I see this picture it gives me chills. God Bless America!
Quoting 126. HurricaneFan:

I don't think the low is really close to SS status, but I'm wondering if we'll see a STWO at some point. Probably not though.
At least it is another reminder that Hurricane Season will be here in a little under 4 months.
Quoting 105. Neapolitan:

[Updated] Zapata, Texas, reached 101F today.



A reminder: it's still February.

Today here in Austin it was 90 degrees! I remember a few years back (more like 5-10, I don't remember) we had some ice and snow in feb and then the week after that we had triple digit heat. Texas weather sure is crazy.
Quoting 138. Climate175:

At least it is another reminder that Hurricane Season will be here in a little under 4 months.

Yep, hurricane season is less than 100 days away. I think we could definitely see some more pre-season development this year.
throwing this out there

do you know the ideal population of the human herd on earth is from 500 to 800 million people in order for the earth to be rebalanced that means 6.2 billion is going
Quoting 140. HurricaneFan:


Yep, hurricane season is less than 100 days away. I think we could definitely see some more pre-season development this year.
90 days beginning march 1st
Quoting 141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

throwing this out there

do you know the ideal population of the human herd on earth is from 500 to 800 million people in order for the earth to be rebalanced that means 6.2 billion is going


Suggestions of how and where?
This conversation can continue without me. They lead nowhere and will only end in bickering.


Solutions? Really?


Far south Texas weather is very weird. Brownsville TX's all-time record high was on March 27, 1984.
Quoting 143. SunnyDaysFla:



Suggestions of how and where?
Quoting 143. SunnyDaysFla:



Suggestions of how and where?
by the hands of nature global wide
The day after Brownsville TX set their all-time record high, North & South Carolina had their worst tornado outbreak of the 20th century. The storm system was very deep with 28.71" recorded at Norfolk, VA. A long time ago bappit and I discussed the Brownsville heat record and whether it was influenced by a föhn.
BOM temperature outlook for the next three months – relentless heat.

I be back in an hr gonna go play a few games or something thinking too much wife said stop it before ya go crazy or somem trying to figure it all out
Quoting 150. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I be back in an hr gonna go play a few games or something thinking too much wife said stop it before ya go crazy or somem trying to figure it all out


The current world problems could make Pollyanna depressed.
Warming ponds could accelerate climate change

SNIP: Rising temperatures could accelerate climate change by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide stored in ponds and increasing the methane they release, new research shows.

The scientists experimentally warmed an array of ponds over seven years by 4-5ºC and studied the impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and rates of metabolism.

Changes observed after the first year became “amplified” over a longer period, according to the study by the University of Exeter and Queen Mary University of London. After seven years, a pond’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide (CO2) was reduced by almost half, while methane release almost doubled.

Lakes and ponds cover about 4% of Earth’s surface (excluding areas covered by glaciers and ice sheets) but they are disproportionately large sources of methane and CO2 to the atmosphere.

Ponds of less than one square metre are responsible for releasing about 40% of all methane emissions from inland waters.

“Our findings show that warming can fundamentally alter the carbon balance of small ponds over a number of years, reducing their capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and increasing emissions of methane.

“This could ultimately accelerate climate change.”
Quoting 109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am on robin watch if they show up it will be 2 months early that means it will be start of summer by mid april


I saw two robins last week, but I couldn't believe my eyes. In Chicagoland.
#152
An interesting article. but except for the occasional backyard water pond, I think there are very few ponds of 1 square meter that would remain through the dry season.. I wonder how the findings translate to a more "typically" sized pond.
You know those highway signs that say watch for falling rock? I might pay a little more attention to them after this happened Tuesday in Oregon.
-Graham Hatch

156. vis0
Quoting 66. Patrap:

We have murdered the World.



Quoting 73. cRRKampen:

Nah. Just ours.




If i may add my stupidity...
 
If i may break up the comment::
"Nah. Just ours. "
 
Into my observations.
 
"just",  as in the only one (Home)
 
"our",  as in not ours. (Explanation is based on y own knowledge with an emotional tug from that Carl Sagan presentation on PBS YEARS AGO that had the "life of Earth" as if a ONE GREGORIAN YEAR (calendar) equals the entire exsistance of the universe and Earth from ~4.5 billion years ago till nowe that shows how humans began to show up on Earth on the LAST DAY Dec 31st, on the last hour, last few minute based on the timeline that ARCHEOLOGY finds proof humans beings began to roam the Earth. (if you are one on beliefs and think it was 2,000 yrs ago THINK then humans have been here much less on Earth as to act all boss like.    
 
Humans are really beings of light of which there are many.  Yet ONLY a few have the privilege (if one uses logic) or blessing (if one is religious) of having certain deep sounds/resonance of space steer the being's  light DNA-form onto a complex planet to enjoy the pain of love.
 
"world",  as in the planet will still be here.
 
But remember its atmosphere / complex atmosphere is similar to your light DNA being.  Its of a very delicate wispy form that when balanced (through its spin/gravity/mag internal resonance) is very strong.  Now once the atmosphere is influenced by what some might call its anti stabilization/anti-stabilizing elements / elemental reactions (as certain gases that thrive on "destroying" the present naturally balanced atmosphere) the atmospheres strength begins to crumble.
Then what took billions of years to develope by "chance" through the logic of a science centered through trail and errors of elements dancing through the universe will be affected from the inside out and the atmosphere no longer will be able to protect the maximized areas of Earth that sustain life (stuff around what is called sea level) so at least less complex life can restart a new Earth v3.0.
If Earth loses its less complex life which helps generate the basic gases to rebuild the complex life sustained atmosphere next Earth becomes a mars(70%)/venus(30%) but maybe if lucky the CO2 or whatever is formed that remains as a form of shield/barrier to keep some water retaining properties.  Hopefully some big alien object (weird if it where a piece of what form Original Earth) will hit Earth and act as sort of defibrillator in adding a quick jolt to restart the re-energizing of the needed elements to go back into the atmosphere and create Earth v3.0 though it will take MUCH longer to reach v3.0 in this latter example than via the less complex aforementioned in the last sentence.   
 
Or we could start now and do our part to get Earth back on a healthy track so that in 21* Generations people will cheer in seeing co2 go down (not back to pre industrial levels)  for the first time since a time capsule had a unknown named Patrap posting PPM of co2 and united states of earth will have many going whew that was close as they show youngins how to walk around Earth without the need of gas masks.
 

--------------

--------------
*i'm including that after Trump be it in 2 or 8 years, inventions that truly lower co2 (not just slow the amount building) in the atmosphere will be invented by at least 3 to 5 generations from now.

---------

---------

For those wondering how i connect one of the ways in which nature via trail and error can remove humans thus stop the co2 building (unless roaches start driving cars) without Earth losing its complex life sustaining atmosphere.

(really is biosphere, but since the atmosphere is the most delicate i only use that part of the biosphere in my comments)

Simple.

The most complex being in being presented/blessed with an independent conscience means it does its own thinking.

 
In doing its own thinking the complex brain becomes the warmest brain.


Brain should shrink when the planet warms..not good loses capabilities to think deeper, then in time compact that area.
 

Yet in still being warm (moisture building) and in a dark (allows a form of wispy condensation) chakra cooling area (skull) its more susceptible to weird fungus/mold spores that can mutate IF less cold kills its spores (notice how less cold is occurring in this complex planet)
 

In time these mold spores attached to complex brains via blood into sugary substances that power the brain.

Other less complex animals/life will mostly survive the mold attack being their brains are not as warm to create a condensation when cooling.
 

Presto humans die off which allows for the next complex being to take over, it could be you coming back but taking a different life form once on Earth quick boot v2.0Bb2 (Bb is how i type beta)
 

Then that next complex being-to-be will have to go through deep Radon and Ice ages.  
 

Anyone remember (no?! - geesh wait till i at least finish mmy run onh) on my old blog on how i state the DEEP radon ages leads to physical mutations while DEEP Ice ages help mutate the brain.  i's state that as Earth cools brain enlarges to accept the physical callings the body asks for via trail n error as how the Thumb came to be.  As some gene develope what was an error, the thumb yet since it formed and that thumb in being used matched the brains need so it was passed on as a needed gene.

Its 2/3rds Karl Jung 1/3rd Freud forming the enclosed message to the genes commands,   i call it a Freudian Crypt.

Notice how single cell creatures have 12-13 independent formations that align towards true North as i explained in my High School science thesis how zodiac energy due to its angle compliments the 3 light links that added complex life to Earth...or could be 99.9% wrong..

 

...oops getting carried away let me go watch thumb wrastling and dumb my nutty brain down a few notches.

 
 

ponder
 

weather:: why am i sleeping w/o a bed sheet with windows cracked for an entire week during the middle of a NE USofA winter...and sweating?
Quoting 157. BaltimoreBrian:

E F harbingers of life 2 pale blue dots in a sunbeam
Temp rose to 86F today at the OK Mesonet station nearest me. Overnight low is scheduled to be 37. Wind's turning N soon and bringing a 49 degree temperature drop? lol The Plains. Supposed to go down to 25 tomorrow night. Actually I look forward to and enjoy the warm Feb days here. Past couple years I don't recall any "warm breaks" in February. Wind today was really warm, I mean, joyfully warm :)

Early afternoon, a fire started a few miles to the west, but it was out in less than an hour. Wasn't long after that the wind picked up and Lady Bug hit the turf. Her hook leaves her nail at 30 mph. A while later I knew the wind hit 40 when I saw a gust had taken the smallest windchime down. The Bluebird of Happiness usually falls at about 35 mph. Today he fell with the small windchime. Sure enough top wind gust at the mesonet station was 39.8 preceded by a 30ish gust. Humph. Fortunate the wind waited to pick up till that fire was out.

Tons of birds passing through now. Just amazing to see and even more amazing to hear. Might have heard some of these guys a week or so ago. If so, that's pretty early from what I have read of them. The call sounded kind of like Canadian Geese, but it wasn't right. I did not see these tall birds, but I will have my eyes and ears open for them in case they do come by.
as a human race space the last great frontier
endless possibilities interactions and occurrences outcomes
well here comes the seasonal dividing line we be on the rain side for awhile now

its got that look about it will it get a mention
Quoting 109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am on robin watch if they show up it will be 2 months early that means it will be start of summer by mid april
I was shocked to see a large flock of them in the trees and on the lawn of our local college campus last week. Guess that means we'll have summer early April, Keep?
Quoting 165. WatermansDaughter:

I was shocked to see a large flock of them in the trees and on the lawn of our local college campus last week. Guess that means we'll have summer early April, Keep?
just where are you in general
Crazy amount of what looks like chaff on radar coming this way. It's not being released in it's usual place. Wunder if it has anything to do with a Russian ship spotted off the east coast recently.

I live in the Tampa area. I realized some months ago that I hardly ever see a songbird in the neighborhood. We used to have mockingbirds ,jays, cardinals, blackbirds and I do not know when I saw one last. Still have lots of ibis, heron, woodstork and awful Muscovy ducks. It is not like the area has had increased development
Quoting 168. Skyepony:

who knows anymore could be anything anytime anywhere
sorta disappears as its push in on the coast skye strange no
Quoting 109. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I am on robin watch if they show up it will be 2 months early that means it will be start of summer by mid april


Robins overwinter in the DC area, at least since the 1970s.
Quoting 173. georgevandenberghe:



Robins overwinter in the DC area, at least since the 1970s.
they leave here late sept early oct normally rtn by mid too late april
Quoting 169. SunnyDaysFla:

I live in the Tampa area. I realized some months ago that I hardly ever see a songbird in the neighborhood. We used to have mockingbirds ,jays, cardinals, blackbirds and I do not know when I saw one last. Still have lots of ibis, heron, woodstork and awful Muscovy ducks. It is not like the area has had increased development


Monarchs used to breed here in Maryland in late summer and early fall. I saw my last caterpillar in September 2011. Now I hardly even see the butterflies and then only in fall when they are migrating south.
Quoting 155. Patrap:

You know those highway signs that say watch for falling rock? I might pay a little more attention to them after this happened Tuesday in Oregon.
-Graham Hatch




It was planned, a witness saw a coyote go down under that rock, and another saw a road runner leaving the scene.

Beep beep
Qazulight
Quoting 176. WU-806742:


Quoting 181. WU-806742:



Thanks for your comment. I'm here because I care. Seems like you have gotten to the second stage, glad you are waking up.

"First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win." - Ghandhi

just jostling with ya its your thing me I think its just vapor the picture was not to insult you but to show you what most may think of the claim but then again who really knows and will they ever tell us likely not so till then its all speculation unless you have valid proof otherwise
742 we have all been lied too for so long
that no one knows the truth anymore
its all a big smoke and mirror job
keep working keep the wheels turning
mush mush mush
Quoting 184. WU-806742:



Do the research before you "jostle". Test your rainwater, hair, blood, then let's talk. Or you can do a simple test and watch the sky with your own two eyes, a very simple test.


If "chemtrails" were raining acids down, farmers 'round these parts wouldn't have to treat new fields with hydrochloric acid to buffer them down to something where forage crops would grow.

Yes, the soil here really is that alkaline. Whenever I empty a jar of sour pickles, we take the jar out to the front yard and pour it on one of the white patches so we can watch it foam up.
Well, that's 12 minutes on my life I won't get back!



Quoting 176. WU-806742:

2-21-2017; Jet Stream Flow Into So. CA Sprayed Over With Aerosols; Result: No Rain!

Link
190. MahFL
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I seen a flock of geese overhead yesterday in afternoon as well but they were heading east in a v coming from the west weird if migrating it should of been due north from south




I saw a flock too and they were going south...
Quoting 156. vis0:

Quoting 66. Patrap:

We have murdered the World.



Quoting 73. cRRKampen:

Nah. Just ours.




If i may add my stupidity...
 
If i may break up the comment::
"Nah. Just ours. "
 
Into my observations.
 
"just",  as in the only one (Home)
 
"our",  as in not ours. [..]

Love ya.
Also, I have put my faith in ants and squids.
Quoting 129. Patrap:



I'm detecting a trend,..

Am I right?






No. You found, and have depicted in your post, a cherry.
I finally figured out that vis0 is actually Dr Bronner (of liquid soap fame).
We are all one! Or none!
It all makes sense now.
:)
Good morning from Germany, still standing after the Doris-Thomas windstorm :-)
There is no summary of the impacts of the windstorm in English available yet. German media report of some overturned lorrys, a lot of toppled trees, some of which fell on cars, roads and trains, causing traffic disruptions. A couple of severly injured people across the country, unfortunately. Some open air events were canceled, some parks were/are closed ...
Top winds in Germany yesterday.


Impacts on a high-speed train last night near Wuppertal (photo: dpa).

Storm Doris: St Pancras and London Overground commuters face further chaos after storm
Evening Standard, 3 hours ago

Storm Doris brings harsh winds and snow to Sweden
The Local (Sweden), 24 February 2017, 07:31 CET 01:00
Southern Sweden was hit by the remnants of Storm Doris over Thursday night, as snow combined with wind to cause tricky conditions for drivers and leave few signs that spring is on its way any time soon. ...
In Siberia there is a huge crater and it's getting bigger
A crater formed in Siberia's permafrost is growing at alarming rates – which is now being actively monitored
BBC, by Melissa Hogenboom, 24 February 2017
Near the Yana river basin, in a vast area of permafrost, there is a dramatic tadpole-shaped hole in the ground: the Batagaika crater.
The crater is also known as a "megaslump" and it is the largest of its kind: almost 0.6 miles (1km) long and 282ft (86m) deep. But these figures will soon change, because it is growing quickly.
Locals in the area avoid it, saying it is a "doorway to the underworld". But for scientists, the site is of great interest. ...

Whole long article see link above.


Photo Alexander Gabyshev
Quoting 190. MahFL:



I saw a flock too and they were going south...

There must be some sort of black hole down south.
Switzerland breaks records with brief spring in February
The Local (Switzerland), 24 February 2017, 09:08 CET+01:00
Thursday was exceptionally warm in Switzerland with many places across the country seeing temperatures of around 20 degrees (68F), breaking previous records for the month of February. ...

Yesterday Salzburg (Austria), too, broke its old record for February with 21,9C (Source), as did some southern German cities (Konstanz, Regensburg, Mühldorf) with temperatures approaching/reaching 20C. Warmest place has been Rosenheim with 21,5C but this has not been a new monthly record at this place (source: wetteronline; couldn't find an official statement from German weatherservice DWD yet as they were obviously occupied by the windstorm).
Ivanka, Kushner pushed to strike climate deal criticism from executive order: report
The Hill, By Nikita Vladimirov - 02/23/17 08:59 PM EST
President Trump's daughter Ivanka and her husband Jared Kushner, a senior White House adviser, pushed to exclude criticism of a global climate deal from a forthcoming executive order, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday evening.
Several people familiar with the move told the newspaper that the language was axed from an earlier draft of the order after Ivanka and Kushner intervened.
Trump is expected to sign at least two orders within days aimed at unraveling former President Barack Obama's environmental and climate regulations, according to the newspaper. ...
Andalusia region (Spain) got a lot of Saharan dust yesterday. Sevilla (via @meteosanjuan):

Sierra Nevada (via @Pepe_Palacio):

AEMET Dust Forecast (animation): Link
after a long "thinking period" upcoming el nino and all. i figure we will see 8 atlantic cyclones 3 of those major 2 which are in the carib. Ace? slightly above normal due to these two or three Carib. monsters. i did not stay at any Inn last night but did sleep intensely on our waveless waterbed.
Ponzano di Civitella del Tronto: a highly destructive landslide in Italy (w/video)
The Landslide Blog / AGU - Feb 24.
There has been a little bit of coverage in the media in the last few days of a highly destructive landslide occurring at Ponzano di Civitella del Tronto, in the Abruzzo region of Italy. This landslide, which is reportedly moving at about one metre per day for almost two weeks, has led to the permanent evacuation of about 35 houses, meaning that about 120 people have been relocated. (...)
Quoting 184. WU-806742:



Do the research before you "jostle". Test your rainwater, hair, blood, then let's talk. Or you can do a simple test and watch the sky with your own two eyes, a very simple test.

Many "samples" taken by chentrail conspiracy theorists are made in contaminated jars Link
Edit: here's another nice site to debunk your chentrail conspiracy Link
Quoting 167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just where are you in general
Southeastern PA outside Philadelphia
I've been loving the weather in North Florida.
Barely humid, barely any bugs, mid 70s.....

Better enjoy it while it lasts cause I know what's comin
Quoting 173. georgevandenberghe:



Robins overwinter in the DC area, at least since the 1970s.
We are not that far from you, but I don't remember seeing them in winter. It was the numbers, though, that really surprised me. Maybe the warmth had made the ground just perfect for these early birds to snatch those worms. We had a cold spell later that chased them off - at least, no more crowd sightings for me.
What a difference from the winter of 2015:

Link
Humans May Have Altered Arctic Ice Much Earlier than Thought
Aerosol pollution may have suppressed global warming and increased Arctic sea ice from 1950-1975.

When people burn fossil fuels, they produce a range of different pollutants that can "force" the climate to react in different ways. Greenhouse gases -- like carbon dioxide -- trap heat and warm the planet, while fine particles suspended in droplets, known collectively as aerosols, usually cool the planet by reflecting the sun's energy away.

"It's a tug-o-war between these two forcings as to what the climate is actually going to do," said Fyfe.

In the mid-20th century, coal-burning power plants and other sources released huge amounts of sulfur dioxide, which then formed toxic sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. Past research has suggested that the cooling influence of these sulfate aerosols helped counteract warming from greenhouse gases, said Fyfe. But around 1970, the U.S. Clean Air Act and other air quality regulations started curbing sulfate aerosol production. Sulfate aerosols degrade relatively quickly, so people soon enjoyed air that was healthier to breathe. Meanwhile, production of greenhouse gases -- which linger in the atmosphere much longer than sulfate aerosols -- has continued, causing average global temperatures to rise.


Link
Link to SPC 0700 cst convective outlook
Potential severe today includes tornadoes.



Local weather note...
Nearest OK mesonet temp dropped two degrees in the past hour, down to 32. May continue to fall the next hour or so...
As it stands, that is a 54-degree temp drop since yesterday late afternoon.
Post retracted..
Quoting 191. wxgeek723:

Can someone explain why I am having so much difficulty posting any kind of radar loop on the blog? I have tried to use images from College of DuPage, the NWS, and even WU's own radar images but none of them show up when I try to post them in a comments section. It's very frustrating - I was hoping to draw attention to the freak thunderstorms that just passed through Chicagoland.
Hard to keep up with the glitches. lol Possible the address contains an "https" that needs the "S" deleted?
RE: Chemtrails

From New Scientist:

Chemtrails conspiracy theory gets put to the ultimate test

What happened when 77 atmospheric scientists actually took a look at the claim that aircraft are spewing out mind-controlling chemicals, wonders Phil Plait


Government conspiracy, or water vapour in the sky? Patrick Pleul/dpa/Press Association

By Phil Plait

I’ve spent a lot of time debunking silly conspiracy claims in my time. NASA faked the Moon landings, the Mayan calendar predicted the end of the world in 2012, a mysterious planet named Nibiru would wipe out life on Earth in 2003, the government created fake snow in Atlanta that wouldn’t melt and scorched when burned… I’ve even debunked government officials who claim that other government officials are covering up conspiracies.

So when I say I haven’t bothered debunking chemtrails because they’re too goofy even for me, you can glean how I really feel about them.

Still, a handful of people are extremely devoted to the idea that the government is spraying us with chemicals from planes, and what you think are simple contrails are actually high doses of mind-altering (or climate altering) chemical compounds meant to keep us under control, I mean, come on, wake up sheeple!

Sigh.

Just water vapour
In fact, when you see clouds coming from planes they really are just the product of condensation of water vapour. But why let facts get in the way of a good conspiracy?

Still, it’s worth trying. That’s why scientists from the University of California, Irvine, and the Carnegie Institute got together and researched the topic.

[...]

They surveyed hundreds of experts in contrails as well as those who study atmospheric deposition (how various chemicals fall to the ground from the air), presenting them with the evidence provided on various chemtrail websites (mostly in the form of photos of plane trails and analyses of water and soil samples), asking them to evaluate it.

No evidence
In the end, 77 scientists reported back, and the results were not terribly surprising. 98.7 per cent (76 out of 77) of the scientists said they had encountered no evidence of a secret large-scale atmospheric programme (SLAP). Everything they saw on the conspiracy websites showed that what they were seeing was the natural consequence of planes flying around all on their own without government nefariousness.

Of course, the first thing you’ll notice is the one scientist who dissented. In that case, it’s hardly a smoking gun: The one participant who answered yes said the evidence they had come across was “high levels of atm[ospheric] barium in a remote area with standard ‘low’ soil barium”.

In other words, they found some unusually high amounts of barium, which hardly supports the idea of wide-spread cover-ups of mind control techniques – and it sounds like the scientist in question was simply saying they can’t rule SLAP out, which is a very different thing from saying it’s real. When I can’t find my keys in the morning I can’t rule out that dinosaur ghosts hid them from me. It just seems a tad unlikely.

[...]

So I’m glad these scientists went to the effort, even though it may seem silly. Conspiracy theorists usually don’t make a big splash in real life, but if they get the ear of a politician, time, money, and effort can indeed be wasted – sometimes on a big scale. Given how anti-science so many members of Congress can be, I don’t think there’s any idea too silly for them to not take seriously.

If Congresscritters think Earth is cooling, that it’s only 6000 years oldLink, that vaccines are dangerous, and that the existence of snow disproves global warming, then chemtrails don’t seem like that much of a stretch.

Click here to read full article.

See also: The Committee for Skeptical Inquiry - The 'Chemtrail Conspiracy'


Source
216. NNYer
Forecast in extreme northeastern New York includes chance of Thunderstorms. In February. Insane. Ice fishing season is essentially done.
Good Morning Folks; the Conus forecast for today and current look; the Bahamas low got swept away and we have to see how that Great Lakes low unfolds later today in terms of some strong t-storms as the Conus jet appears to be in the right location for some dynamic forcing:



No wind reports yet over the past 3 hours but this chart will update as the day progresses:

last3hours Reports Graphic

Post retracted..
The average Great Lakes maximum ice cover date varies slightly by lake, but generally-speaking, peak cover occurs between the middle of February and the first week of March, meaning those lakes should be at peak right around now. Here's the picture:



Looking pretty dire for Lake Superior:



...and Lake Erie is for all intents and purposes ice-free:

Here are some portions of the discussion for severe t-storms and a small possibility of tornadoes to the South in the warmer sector South of the Great Lakes:

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO TO NORTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
 ...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to affect areas from Lower
Michigan southward to Tennessee, mainly this afternoon through
tonight. The primary threat appears to be damaging wind, but some
hail and a couple of tornadoes will also be possible.

...Lower MI to TN through tonight...
A well-defined midlevel trough over the mid MO Valley this morning
will amplify while progressing eastward to the Great Lakes and OH
Valley tonight, as an associated surface cyclone deepens while
moving northeastward from west central IL across Lower MI to Lake
Huron. Ongoing elevated thunderstorms will persist through the
morning across Lower MI in the zone of strong low-level warm
advection/frontogenesis immediately north of the eventual cyclone
track, with marginally severe hail possible in the strongest storms.

Modest low-level moisture (boundary layer dewpoints in the mid-upper
50s) will spread northward into southern Lower MI beneath an
elevated mixed layer, though the cap will likely delay surface-based
thunderstorm development until 21-00z. Initial storm development is
likely close to the surface cyclone in southern Lower MI, along the
northwest edge of the modestly unstable warm sector (MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg). Deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear of
40-50 kt) will favor semi-discrete supercells with an associated
large hail/damaging wind risk into this evening across southern
Lower MI. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible as any
sustained supercells can interact with the zone of stronger
low-level shear (effective SRH 200-300 m2/s2) and sufficient
moisture along the surface warm front.

Convection will develop southward through the evening as large-scale
forcing for ascent/height falls overspread the surface cold
front/west part of the warm sector and erode the cap associated with
the steep (8-9 C/km) midlevel lapse rates. A mixed convective mode
of semi-discrete cells and line segments is expected initially along
and just ahead of the cold front, given somewhat boundary-parallel,
deep-layer shear vectors and ascent focused along the front. Modest
low-level moisture/buoyancy, lingering steep midlevel lapse rates,
and 40-50 kt effective bulk shear will support organized line
segments and supercells capable of producing damaging winds/isolated
large hail. The tornado risk well south into the warm sector is a
bit more uncertain given relatively straight hodographs and a
tendency toward more linear convection with time. However, there
will still be some risk for embedded circulations in the solidifying
line of storms which will also be capable of producing damaging
gusts well into the overnight hours.


And here is the surface (850 mb) low vort-max signature moving just to the South of the Great Lakes:


.

(Click for larger image)
Quoting 221. Neapolitan:

The average Great Lakes maximum ice cover date varies slightly by lake, but generally-speaking, peak cover occurs between the middle of February and the first week of March, meaning those lakes should be at peak right around now. Here's the picture:



Looking pretty dire for Lake Superior:



...and Lake Erie is for all intents and purposes ice-free:



Stunning.
Again.
Millions of Americans facing 'megadrought' as Colorado River shrinks to alarming low
Only 'aggressive reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere' will help reduce the long-term decline in the amount of water in the once-mighty river, scientists say

The once-mighty Colorado River, which has regularly failed to reach the ocean since the 1960s, is already in the grip of the worst 15-year drought on record with the flow of water in the 21st century nearly a fifth lower than the 20th century average, a new study found.

And the scientists warned the river could be reduced by anything from 35 to 55 per cent by the end of this century if nothing was done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Rising temperatures cause increased evaporation from the river, but also prompt plants to use more water.


Link
228. vis0
Bees learn to play golf and show off how clever they really are
vis0 sez::
Bees try to teach humans that they'd prefer to yell four! or go deep!! instead of RAID*!?
 
Not placing blame on a brand name for chemicals used for profit in killing certain insects that harmed plants (eventually also harmed plants).  
 
Man could have instead used known natural** oils of certain plants to naturally combat insects and in time create the same natural repellent in LABS thus offer easy access to a natural substance, thus cheaper and make more money by selling more and spending less time in court fighting the negative affects of doing chemical warfare on insects which in turn live where?, among the humans pop.  Not to mention the natural stuff
--------------------
--------------------
*If you create a well known brand jingle it then attracts all types of attention.  
 
**Of course there are just as harmful natural things BUT IF HUMANS USE THEIR BRAINS not just to play golf  but through science find the safest of the natural repellent and use that. Plus the natural stuff is tested and proven for millions of years while manmade crap has to be updated every 8-12 years.
The link @ #227
A paper about the study in the journal Water Resources Research said: “With continued anthropogenic [human-caused] warming, the risk of multi-decadal megadrought in the Southwest increases to over 90 per cent over this century if there is no increase in mean precipitation.

“Even if modest precipitation increases do occur, the risk will still exceed 70 per cent.”

In the event of “huge and unlikely” increases in rainfall, there would still be a megadrought risk of just under 50 per cent.

Capital Weather GangVerified account‏@capitalweather 2m
This month is on track to become the warmest February on record in DC.
A group of scientists and others skeptical of global warming are asking President Trump to withdraw the United States from the United Nations’ climate change agency.

The group of 300, led by high-profile climate change skeptic Richard Lindzen, said in a Thursday letter to Trump and Vice President Pence that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide are not as harmful as most climate scientists say.
“Since 2009, the US and other governments have undertaken actions with respect to global climate that are not scientifically justified and that already have, and will continue to cause serious social and economic harm — with no environmental benefits,” the letter reads.

“While we support effective, affordable, reasonable and direct controls on conventional environmental pollutants, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant,” it says. “To the contrary, there is clear evidence that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is environmentally helpful to food crops and other plants that nourish all life. It is plant food, not poison.”


Link
Spring coming sooner to Arctic due to climate change

The site

The study covered 12 years of observations at a West Greenland field site, about 240 km inland from the Davis Strait. .................... One racehorse of a sedge species now springs out of the proverbial gate a full 26 days earlier than it did a decade ago.

Rate of change

This was the greatest increase in the timing of emergence the researchers had seen on record in the Arctic.

“When we started studying this, I never would have imagined we’d be talking about a 26-day per decade rate of advance,” Post said.


Link
234. elioe
Nothing significant in my local weather. And the state of tropics is boring. But some models give some inconsistent hints about tropical/subtropical cyclogenesis within the next 16 days, so I made the following image. Click to expand.



Most spectacular was a 926 mbar low, shown by a GEPS ensemble member long distance SE of Niue on March 11, lol.
Quoting 230. Xyrus2000:

Obviously it's all a government conspiracy to mind-control...itself? The Baltimore-DC area has one of the highest flight densities in the world. BUT DA CHERMTRELS!

Whatever. Hydrocarbon combustion produces heat, water, and CO2. What happens when you take hot moist water vapor and put it in a cold dry environment? It expands, cools, and condenses. You don't need a degree in meteorology to figure this out.

Lack of knowledge is everywhere... the siren in the background adds to the bizarre...Link
Quoting 232. RobertWC:

[...]

Climate skeptics ask Trump to withdraw from UN agency


Scientists to Media: Stop Calling Climate Change Deniers “skeptics”!

Deniers are not Skeptics

[...]

As Fellows of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, we are concerned that the words “skeptic” and “denier” have been conflated by the popular media. Proper skepticism promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims. It is foundational to the scientific method. Denial, on the other hand, is the a priori rejection of ideas without objective consideration.

Real skepticism is summed up by a quote popularized by Carl Sagan, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” Inhofe’s belief that global warming is “the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people” is an extraordinary claim indeed. He has never been able to provide evidence for this vast alleged conspiracy. That alone should disqualify him from using the title “skeptic.”

As scientific skeptics, we are well aware of political efforts to undermine climate science by those who deny reality but do not engage in scientific research or consider evidence that their deeply held opinions are wrong. The most appropriate word to describe the behavior of those individuals is “denial.” Not all individuals who call themselves climate change skeptics are deniers. But virtually all deniers have falsely branded themselves as skeptics. By perpetrating this misnomer, journalists have granted undeserved credibility to those who reject science and scientific inquiry.

We are skeptics who have devoted much of our careers to practicing and promoting scientific skepticism. We ask that journalists use more care when reporting on those who reject climate science, and hold to the principles of truth in labeling. Please stop using the word “skeptic” to describe deniers.
238. bwi
Crazy warm in DC today. Rode to work in shorts and t-shirt and still overheated a little. Feels like it could hit 80 later this afternoon.
Quoting 231. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather GangVerified account‏@capitalweather 2m
This month is on track to become the warmest February on record in DC.


Reminds me a lot of 1976 and blooming dates are about the same as this year so far. But January 1976 was cold, (I built an outdoor greenhouse that month.. yeah COLD!) about -3F departure and the first week of February averaged normal that year.
Quoting 238. bwi:

Crazy warm in DC today. Rode to work in shorts and t-shirt and still overheated a little. Feels like it could hit 80 later this afternoon.


I've also speculated we've got a good shot at 80. Tomato plants are outside soaking up the sun (Not planted
outside, two months early for that!)

Blooming dates so far are comparable to 1976, the previous record warm February here.
Meanwhile we have had the windiest snowiest, and now the wettest in history In the PAC NW. But as usual we get ignored.
Interesting blob west of Gabon: Will it spin (if yes, which way?)?

Quoting 177. georgevandenberghe:



Monarchs used to breed here in Maryland in late summer and early fall. I saw my last caterpillar in September 2011. Now I hardly even see the butterflies and then only in fall when they are migrating south.

Do you plant host plants in your yard? They find my single pot of swamp milkweed every year. I also have asclepias tuberosa, but I only find caterpillars on them occasionally.

On another note, I see the Bradford pear trees are in full bloom; probably the plums, too, with a low of 25 expected tonight.
This actually came out the new Sec of Education's mouth a lil while ago.


Betsy DeVos just accused college professors of ‘ominously’ indoctrinating students

Betsy Devos CPAC speech
Quoting 244. Uragani:

Interesting blob west of Gabon: Will it spin (if yes, which way?)?




It's going to spin to the South along the ITCZ South of the Equator (summer in the Southern Hemisphere) and spin clockwise......................The ITCZ will start to rise above the Equator over the next few months as we approach the start of the North Atlantic hurricane season:


Quoting 245. gunhilda:


Do you plant host plants in your yard? They find my single pot of swamp milkweed every year. I also have asclepias tuberosa, but I only find caterpillars on them occasionally.

On another note, I see the Bradford pear trees are in full bloom; probably the plums, too, with a low of 25 expected tonight.
Been thinking of planting some milkweed. Are your milkweeds able to get through winter without going indoors?

A true victim of raging Doris-Thomas (at Laubersreuth near Hof in eastern Bavaria) Source.
Photo Gallery with pics from a drone here.
Quoting 245. gunhilda:


Do you plant host plants in your yard? They find my single pot of swamp milkweed every year. I also have asclepias tuberosa, but I only find caterpillars on them occasionally.

On another note, I see the Bradford pear trees are in full bloom; probably the plums, too, with a low of 25 expected tonight.


My area Bradford pears are a few days from bloom. Plums are blooming.

Yes I maintain milkweed in my yard. Without Monarchs it's still a good plant for pollinators.



Emails reveal Pruitt's behind-the-scenes collaboration with oil and natural gas giant
Rene Marsh-Profile-Image
By Jeremy Diamond and Rene Marsh, CNN
Updated 4:50 AM ET, Thu February 23, 2017
Scott Pruitt tries to soothe worries at EPA



A letter signed by Pruitt was nearly identical to one sent by a Devon Energy lobbyist
More than 7,500 pages of emails shed light on Pruitt's relationship with the energy company.

(CNN)In June 2013, a top lobbyist at Devon Energy, an Oklahoma-based oil and natural gas giant, sent one of Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt's top officials a draft letter objecting to recently proposed federal regulations on fracking.

Two months later, Pruitt, who is now the head of the Environmental Protection Agency under President Donald Trump, signed a nearly identical version of that letter and sent it to then-Interior Secretary Sally Jewell. The only difference was the addition of the attorney general's official letterhead and a paragraph citing additional legal precedent to back up the letter's arguments against federal regulations on hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, one of the main ways Devon Energy pumps out oil and natural gas.

The episode was just one of several examples that highlighted the relationship Pruitt and his top aides maintained with Devon Energy and the oil and gas industry during his time as Oklahoma attorney general. This raises fresh questions about how Pruitt will conduct himself at the EPA, which is charged with regulating that industry.

More than 7,500 pages of emails from the Oklahoma attorney general's office obtained and released by the Center for Media and Democracy through an open records request shed light on Pruitt's relationship with Devon Energy, including allowing the energy giant's top lobbyists to draft and edit letters sent to top federal officials on behalf of Pruitt and other state attorneys general.
A CNN request for comment from the White House was not immediately returned.

An EPA spokesman said the agency would not be commenting.
"That's an Oklahoma issue and we are going to remain focused on the environment and environmental issues," EPA spokesman Doug Ericksen said.
CNN has also reached out for comment to the four state attorney generals who co-signed the August 2013 letter to ask if they were aware the letter had been drafted by Devon Energy officials.

More than 7,500 pages of emails from the Oklahoma attorney general's office obtained and released by the Center for Media and Democracy through an Open Records Act shed light on Pruitt's relationship with Devon Energy, including allowing the energy giant's top lobbyists to draft and edit letters sent on Pruitt and other state attorney generals' behalf to top federal officials.
The newly released emails confirm years of cushy ties between Pruitt and Devon Energy dating back to at least October 2011, when Pruitt also signed a letter quietly drafted by Devon Energy officials and sent it to the head of the EPA. That exchange was first reported by The New York Times in December 2014.

That type of exchange took place multiple times in years to come, according to the released emails.
A month before one of Devon Energy's top lobbyists sent the draft letter on fracking to Pruitt's deputy solicitor general Clayton Eubanks, Eubanks gave Devon Energy officials the opportunity to edit a separate letter addressed to the EPA -- this time about the regulation of methane emissions, a dangerous pollutant.

"Attached is the final draft of the methane letter to EPA regarding the 7 NE States NOI to sue over the regulation of methane emissions. We have received good support on this and I would like to get the letter out in the morning. I thought we should insert a sentence or two regarding the recent EPA report indicating their initial estimates on methane emissions for two categories were too high," Eubanks wrote in a May 2013 email to Bill Whitsitt, Devon's executive vice president of public affairs. "Any suggestions?"
Less than three hours later, Whitsitt replied with proposed additions to the letter from him and his team.
The next day, Pruitt sent the letter that included Whitsitt's changes, word-for-word.


At the time, Devon Energy had been leading the fight against the EPA's system of measuring methane emissions.
"There's no mention of Pruitt questioning anything they (the energy industry) are doing or saying. This is a direct cut and paste type relationship," said Liz Perera, the Sierra Club's climate policy director, who said the emails make clear Pruitt "not only has a good relationship [with the] fossil fuel industry but he's dependent on them to provide research and talking points."
Perera said she was especially struck by the absence of any mention of the earthquakes occurring in Oklahoma at the time, which scientists believed to be tied to fracking activity in the state.
"Pruitt never expressed concern about the increased number of earthquakes believed to be linked to the fracking activity in Oklahoma. He never mentioned launching an investigation into the earthquakes," Perera said.

Hundreds of other emails showed regular contact between Pruitt's top aides and Devon Energy's lobbyists and public affairs executives, including frequent phone calls and in-person meetings between those officials -- as well as meetings between Pruitt and Whitsitt.
Whitsitt also sent along talking points and other draft letters to Pruitt's office in 2013 following "conversations with Attorney General Pruitt."
CNN could not immediately confirm whether Pruitt officially used those letters and talking points as well.
The emails also showed that Pruitt was close with other groups beyond Devon Energy.

In a May 2013 email, Pruitt's executive assistant emailed Richard Moskowitz, the general counsel of the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers association, after "General Pruitt asked that I email you" to put Moskowitz in touch with Eubanks, Oklahoma's deputy solicitor general.
"Thank you again for the information you provided during General Pruitt's visit and please do not hesitate to contact me if there is anything else we can do for you," Pruitt's assistant wrote in the email.

Some conservative groups are defending Pruitt's close relationship with the industry. "Despite hyperventilating from fringe groups on the left, these emails show that Scott Pruitt was a dutiful and responsible Attorney General who fought daily on behalf of the people that elected him," Jeremy Adler of America Rising Squared told CNN. "There was no new information in these emails to support the left's anti-Pruitt fever dreams, instead they showed that he behaved like any accomplished public servant, working with key industries in his state to help his constituents."
CNN's Amanda Watts and Curt Devine contributed to this report.




Something happened to my post on chemtrails so I'll reiterate as clearly as I can.

The stuff is water. Contrails.

Quoting 248. StormDrain:

Been thinking of planting some milkweed. Are your milkweeds able to get through winter without going indoors?

Some of them are, some of them aren't. Perennial plants are winter hardy. Annual/tropical plants are not. Asclepias tuberosa (Butterflyweed) is a perennial and is very hardy once established, drought tolerant. I leave my swamp milkweed out all winter, and it comes back just fine. It likes water, though, which is why I keep it in a pot. Tropical milkweed will not survive winter, but sometimes will reseed. I use it sparingly; questions have been raised about its safety as a host plant for monarchs. I think those are probably overstated, but it isn't a native plant, so I'd prefer to plant the native perennials anyway.

Here is a good website that explains the different varieties and where they are native:
http://blog.nwf.org/2015/02/twelve-native-milkwee ds-for-monarchs/

If I had to pick just one to recommend: Asclepias tuberosa is a beautiful bloomer and a favorite nectar source for many other butterflies. I highly recommend it.
From the ENSO Blog:

Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring

Author: Aaron Levine

February 23, 2017

[...]

Predicting El Niño: Warm up the Ocean and Turn On the Noise
So, what makes warm water volume a worse indicator for El Niño events than La Niña events? Simply put, plain old weather over the equatorial Pacific Ocean greatly complicates the picture.

To understand how the weather impacts ENSO, let’s start by thinking about what happens when we blow across a pan of hot water. First, the water cools where we are blowing. Second, the water stacks up on the side of the pan opposite of where we are blowing.

Now to apply this to the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the winds normally blow from east to west, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific (see normal/neutral conditions of the Walker circulation here). Prior to the possible onset of El Niño, we want to see whether the normal winds weaken—a westerly anomaly—and not all at once, but in a series of successive pulses. If strong enough, these Westerly Wind Bursts can simultaneously cool the waters in the extreme western Pacific and allow the warm waters in the western Pacific to slide east. The increase in warm water volume that accompanies these westerly wind bursts can increase the potential for, but not guarantee, an El Niño event.

In fact, expansion of the warm surface waters to the eastern Pacific can also create conditions where more westerly wind bursts will occur! A westerly wind burst makes a second one more likely to occur than the original one (scientists call this “state-dependent noise forcing,” a term that would make you the most popular guest at your next dinner party (4)). This Weather Noise (a measure of winds- for more details see the Methodology section below) results in a larger range of possible outcomes that depends on what happens during the spring and summer months. For example, the ENSO evolution in spring and summer of 2014 was very different from that of 2015 despite very similar starting conditions in the ocean.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 209. WatermansDaughter:

We are not that far from you, but I don't remember seeing them in winter. It was the numbers, though, that really surprised me. Maybe the warmth had made the ground just perfect for these early birds to snatch those worms. We had a cold spell later that chased them off - at least, no more crowd sightings for me.


Our populations in DC go way down in winter so I think a lot of them do leave.

We also have year round populations of Canada Geese and these are very very common all winter.
256. bwi
Nightly low temps above normal highs.
Quoting 246. Patrap:

This actually came out the new Sec of Education's mouth a lil while ago.


Betsy DeVos just accused college professors of ‘ominously’ indoctrinating students

Betsy Devos CPAC speech


I'm done giving this Administration any more chances.

I used to be a very laid back political minded person in my past. Now more than ever I want to fight for what is right and what is happening in our country is an absolute disgrace on so many levels.

The bubble will pop and we the people will show our force with our voice and actions. I will not put up with this ALT right BS anymore. Not when it begins negatively effecting my every day way of life for me and my family like it has in the last 6 weeks.
Mean temperature for February 2017 in Cleveland (through 2/23): 40.2F

Record warmest: 37.6F in 1998

Normal for MARCH (1981-2010): 38.4F

Should rise to 42F or so before the end of the month... We'll be close to four degrees above the normal for March. How many more of these months - 3/12, 12/15, 2/17 (hot summers in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016) - do we need before we sound the alarm? Changes are happening faster than expected... WAKE UP!
Quoting 249. barbamz:


A true victim of raging Doris-Thomas (at Laubersreuth near Hof in eastern Bavaria) Source.
Photo Gallery with pics from a drone here.

The Netherlands, insurers call it about 10 million euros, which is unremarkable (once or twice a year, if I estimate conservatively). So I conclude: finally a day with some weather, in a climate that is becoming more boring (subtropical ...) by the year.
Quoting 258. ClimateChange:

Mean temperature for February 2017 in Cleveland (through 2/23): 40.2F

Record warmest: 37.6F in 1998

Normal for MARCH (1981-2010): 38.4F

Should rise to 42F or so before the end of the month... We'll be close to four degrees above the normal for March. How many more of these months - 3/12, 12/15, 2/17 (hot summers in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016) - do we need before we sound the alarm? Changes are happening faster than expected... WAKE UP!

Please hazard a guess.
Warning, it's hazardous to hazard a guess on this kind of thing. BTDT.
What are the chances this month is the warmest February on record in the US? I'd put it at 100%. This heat is insane.

949mb low (map is showing the temperature in C at 850mb - click to enlarge). Source.

Severe Weather Update
Iceland Review, By Vala Hafstad, 2 hours ago, Updated: February 24, 2017 14:34
Numerous roads have been closed in Iceland, due to the severe weather affecting the country. ...
Close to 200 people are stranded at Klebergsskoli, Kjalarnes, Southwest Iceland, RUV reports. The Icelandic Red Cross has set up a shelter there, but all classes were canceled at the school today. ...
An easyJet flight from Luton, England, coming in to land shortly before noon at Keflavik International Airport, was unable to land, due to the storm. The plane was expected to land instead in Scotland. ...

More see link above.

This happened yesterday to another flight due to Doris-Thomas:
Emergency Declared Aboard Icelandair Flight
Iceland Review, By Vala Hafstad, about 3 hours ago

Edit: BTW, this huge low between Iceland and Greenland has been named "Udo". Below the surface map for tomorrow:

Quoting 256. bwi:

Nightly low temps above normal highs.


Comparison of 1976 and this year at DCA

1976 2017
52.0 34.0 0201 51 34
39.0 10.9 0202 50 36
37.9 19.0 0203 40 30
51.1 24.1 0204 41 24
43.0 33.1 0205 54 32
34.0 26.1 0206 61 33
34.0 23.0 0207 73 48
46.0 30.0 0208 74 51
42.1 28.0 0209 53 25
55.9 27.0 0210 39 23
60.1 42.1 0211 53 34
55.9 36.0 0212 55 45
66.0 43.0 0213 47 35
55.9 34.0 0214 46 30
57.9 30.9 0215 55 37
73.0 45.0 0216 42 32
79.0 59.0 0217 51 28
75.9 48.9 0218 68 33
66.0 48.9 0219 71 49
59.0 44.1 0220 68 43
69.1 39.0 0221 58 41
63.0 37.0 0222 63 46
41.0 30.9 0223 75 53
64.0 30.0 0224
71.1 37.0 0225
66.9 46.0 0226
71.1 45.0 0227
73.9 44.1 0228
77.0 43.0 0229
1976 2017
~
Quoting 258. ClimateChange:

Mean temperature for February 2017 in Cleveland (through 2/23): 40.2F

Record warmest: 37.6F in 1998

Normal for MARCH (1981-2010): 38.4F

Should rise to 42F or so before the end of the month... We'll be close to four degrees above the normal for March. How many more of these months - 3/12, 12/15, 2/17 (hot summers in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2016) - do we need before we sound the alarm? Changes are happening faster than expected... WAKE UP!

yes, and Geoengineering is making a bad situation even worse.
From ABC:

50 Reefs: World-first global plan says only 10 pc of coral reefs can be saved from extinction

VIDEO: Global plan paints bleak picture for reefs (Image: The Ocean Agency / XL Catlin Seaview Survey) (ABC News)

A new global plan aims to save the meagre 10 per cent of the world's coral reefs predicted to survive beyond 2050.

It is the first worldwide initiative aimed at protecting reefs from extinction and to date funding is coming from philanthropic organisations, not governments.

Scientists estimate 90 per cent of the world's coral reefs will disappear in the next 35 years due to coral bleaching induced by global warming, pollution and over-development.

The grim outlook accounts for the targets set by the Paris Agreement on climate action being met and ocean temperatures stabilising.

The 50 Reefs initiative, launched today at the World Ocean Summit in Bali, is an ambitious plan to identify and protect the world's most critical reefs.

Built on the work of a team led by University of Queensland Professor Ove Hoegh-Guldberg and the Ocean Agency's Richard Vevers, it brings together a coalition of scientific experts and philanthropic innovators from around the world to fund and implement the plan.

Professor Hoegh-Guldberg insisted their approach was realistic, not pessimistic.

"It's based on the best science. It's saying we will only have 10 per cent left but let's make sure those 10 per cent have the best chance of survival."

"There's no global plan at the moment to save coral reefs.

"This is the first of its kind. It's a massive plan."

Click here to read more.
First time I ever remember seeing contrails is on television in the early 1960's when my Father used to watch "12 O Clock High" (in black and white back then) with the B-17's flying over Europe on the way to Germany. Lately, I search for the occasional contrails out of Nevada (on sat shots) when the AF is flying some experimental air craft that only fly at night and fly in from over the Pacific or Atlantic; tough to see them at night but sometimes you hit pay-dirt if flight is coming in closer to sunrise..................................
Among many others we're sure to see today, this from NWS Boston:



Records go back to 1872
RE: 265

Dane Wigington is a fraud.

"Here are four examples of Dane purposefully manipulating images in order to show "chemtrails" when there are none present. Dane is snake who knows that chemtrails are a hoax, yet uses these images on his website in order to scare people in order to drive up his donations and bring people to his events to hear him spread his lies. Yes, it seems that Dane has a fondness for trolling Flickr accounts for images, then altering them to add contrails and putting them on his website (Geoengineering Watch)."

----------

Geoengineering Watch/Dane Wigington debunked

First wind reports have come in from the South Shore of Lake Michigan; a few trees down: looks like it was from that one strong cell which is already booking off to the NE and now reaching Canada:


today Filtered Reports Graphic

For the southern US, I recommend growing the perennial antelope horn milkweeds, Asclepias asperula and Asclepias viridis. They are low-growing, with large, green, ball-like flower clusters that I think are unusual and beautiful. You can collect seeds from roadsides in the summer from the fat horn-like pods. I have noticed more monarch caterpillars on these species than on the showier A. tuberosa, at least in N central TX.

Quoting 253. gunhilda:


Some of them are, some of them aren't. Perennial plants are winter hardy. Annual/tropical plants are not. Asclepias tuberosa (Butterflyweed) is a perennial and is very hardy once established, drought tolerant. I leave my swamp milkweed out all winter, and it comes back just fine. It likes water, though, which is why I keep it in a pot. Tropical milkweed will not survive winter, but sometimes will reseed. I use it sparingly; questions have been raised about its safety as a host plant for monarchs. I think those are probably overstated, but it isn't a native plant, so I'd prefer to plant the native perennials anyway.

Here is a good website that explains the different varieties and where they are native:
http://blog.nwf.org/2015/02/twelve-native-milkwee ds-for-monarchs/

If I had to pick just one to recommend: Asclepias tuberosa is a beautiful bloomer and a favorite nectar source for many other butterflies. I highly recommend it.










Chemtrails have a long way to go to catch up with the 400,000 tonnes of CO2 we emit into our only biosphere ina now 170 year long terra forming project.




Vee r runnings ahead of da schedule..

Yah?



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 248. StormDrain:

Been thinking of planting some milkweed. Are your milkweeds able to get through winter without going indoors?


Out here where winters regularly have days near or below 0*F, milkweed grows anywhere it isn't killed off. Irrigation berms, and our orchard has a nice patch that both regrows and reseeds. I have to work to keep the patch from spreading. Maybe it's the variety, but it tolerates both 0*F days in winter and triple digit days in summer.
Quoting 250. georgevandenberghe:



My area Bradford pears are a few days from bloom. Plums are blooming.

Yes I maintain milkweed in my yard. Without Monarchs it's still a good plant for pollinators.




Gotta watch for trapped bees though - Milkweed pollen is weird and kind of like an insect leg-hold bolo.
Quoting 253. gunhilda:


Some of them are, some of them aren't. Perennial plants are winter hardy. Annual/tropical plants are not. Asclepias tuberosa (Butterflyweed) is a perennial and is very hardy once established, drought tolerant. I leave my swamp milkweed out all winter, and it comes back just fine. It likes water, though, which is why I keep it in a pot. Tropical milkweed will not survive winter, but sometimes will reseed. I use it sparingly; questions have been raised about its safety as a host plant for monarchs. I think those are probably overstated, but it isn't a native plant, so I'd prefer to plant the native perennials anyway.

Here is a good website that explains the different varieties and where they are native:
http://blog.nwf.org/2015/02/twelve-native-milkwee ds-for-monarchs/

If I had to pick just one to recommend: Asclepias tuberosa is a beautiful bloomer and a favorite nectar source for many other butterflies. I highly recommend it.
Thank you. Planning what to plant. Perennials are what I'm looking for - drought resistant, and native makes them all the better. Saw lots of butterflies last summer, including a Monarch or two as I recall, and me with only Bermuda grass and sand burs. :/ Thanks again.
Ps. The orange color is what I liked, and I see on the USFS link orange is the A. tuberosa! Cool. And a great link.
Quoting 279. nonblanche:



Out here where winters regularly have days near or below 0*F, milkweed grows anywhere it isn't killed off. Irrigation berms, and our orchard has a nice patch that both regrows and reseeds. I have to work to keep the patch from spreading. Maybe it's the variety, but it tolerates both 0*F days in winter and triple digit days in summer.
Thank you. Sounds like my kind of plant. :)
Quoting 272. ToesInTheWater:

For the southern US, I recommend growing the perennial antelope horn milkweeds, Asclepias asperula and Asclepias viridis. They are low-growing, with large, green, ball-like flower clusters that I think are unusual and beautiful. You can collect seeds from roadsides in the summer from the fat horn-like pods. I have noticed more monarch caterpillars on these species than on the showier A. tuberosa, at least in N central TX.


Cool. Thanks for that. Sounds like these are worth a try in SW OK.
284. vis0
Quoting 194. ToesInTheWater:

I finally figured out that vis0 is actually Dr Bronner (of liquid soap fame).
We are all one! Or none!
It all makes sense now.
:)
for the zilly reply dare read my zilly blog comment link (link auto scrolls to comment#556, once page THERE is fully loaded)