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More Floods and Evacuations in California--Plus Wind Gusts Topping 190 MPH

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 6:50 PM GMT on February 21, 2017

The atmospheric river that slammed the central third of California on Monday left its mark in multiple ways, including what could end up as the highest reliably recorded wind gusts for the state (see below). Fortunately, the storm underperformed somewhat when it came to rainfall, much like its older sibling that hit southern California last Friday. Rainfall amounts in Bay Area cities on Monday came in well short of the potential suggested by multiple model runs, although both San Francisco (2.16”) and San Jose (1.87”) managed to set rainfall records for the date.

Even if the rains of the last week haven’t lived up to model-based expectations, they have caused plenty of havoc (see Figures 1 through 3). Power was knocked out to more than 100,000 people in the Los Angeles area on Friday, with several fatalities reported. More than two dozen debris flows had been recorded in nine counties as a result of the Sunday/Monday storm, according to a comprehensive roundup of the last week’s storms from weather.com. One levee breach on Monday night in San Joaquin County was quickly repaired after some 500 people had been ordered to evacuate. Residents of the town of Wilton in southern Sacramento County were under a voluntary evacuation on Monday night, but the Cosumnes River ended up peaking at 12.06 feet, less than an inch above the 12-foot flood stage and more than 3 feet below predictions from earlier Monday.

The storms of the past week have added to multi-month precipitation totals that are getting steadily more impressive. Many points across central and northern California have already recorded more precipitation than they get on average in an entire October-to-September water year. As of 4:00 pm PST Monday, San Francisco International Airport had racked up 15.70” of rain since January 1. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University) noted that this is the fourth highest January-February total on record for the airport, where data collection began in 1945. By midnight Monday night, this year’s Jan-Feb total had climbed to 16.38”. Meanwhile, downtown San Francisco is already at its seventh wettest Jan-Feb in records going back to 1855, with 17.63” as of Wednesday morning. The station is likely to vault to at least fourth place by the time the month is done, but going any further will be a challenge, based on stats tweeted by Klotzbach. During the catastrophic Jan-Feb of 1862, downtown San Francisco recorded 31.89”.


Figure 1. For the first time since the floods of 1997, the Don Pedro Reservoir spillway gates were opened on Feb. 20, 2017, in Tuolumne County, California. The Stanislaus Consolidated Fire Protection District told KCRA.com that up to 20,000 cubic feet per second of water was being discharged as of 3 pm PST Monday. Water flowing from the reservoir will enter the Tuolumne River, where authorities are advising some residents to evacuate and seek higher ground. The spillway will be open for at least four days. Image credit: Twitter/@TuolumneSheriff


Figure 2. For the first time in over a decade, water flows into the iconic 72-foot diameter Glory Hole spillway at Monticello Dam on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017, in Lake Berryessa, California. The unique spillway operates similarly to a bathtub drain. Lake Berryessa is the largest lake in Napa County, California, and is formed by the Monticello Dam, which provides water and hydroelectricity to the North Bay region of the San Francisco Bay Area. Image credit: AP Photo/Eric Risberg. See also the video embedded at bottom.


Figure 3. Officials look over the scene where a San Bernardino County Fire Department fire engine fell on February 17, 2017, from southbound Interstate 15, where part of the freeway collapsed due to heavy rain at Cajon Pass, California, late last week. Image credit: David Pardo/The Daily Press via AP.


A truly wild night in the high Sierra
Two high-elevation weather stations at California’s Squaw Valley resort experienced incredible winds on Monday night as the core of the jet stream associated with the atmospheric river came through, together with localized wind acceleration from a low-level jet encountering the Sierra crest. (Thanks to WU member BayFog for pointing out the multiscale interactions.] Between 10:45 pm and 11:00 pm PST, the Siberia (Sierra Crest)-Squaw station, or SIBSV--located at an elevation of 8700 feet near the top of Squaw Peak--recorded a peak wind gust of 193 mph, with sustained winds reported at 123 mph. During the same interval, only about two miles to the southeast, the Summit (Ward Mt)-Alpine station, or SUMAM--perched atop Mt. Ward at 8643 feet--recorded a gust to 199 mph, with sustained winds of 148 mph.

Extreme gusts over 150 mph are no stranger to the high Sierra. In a 2011 blog post, WU weather historian Christopher Burt referred to an undated state record gust of 176 mph from the Mt. Ward station. Just last month, on January 8, the same station notched a 174-mph gust. (If it’s any comfort, the atmosphere at this height is about 25% thinner than at sea level, so the wind exerts less force.)


Figure 4. Preliminary data from the summit of Ward Mountain in California’s Squaw Valley ski resort show a gust to 199 mph (highest green dot). The gust occurred between 10:45 and 11:00 pm PST on Monday, February 20, 2017. Image credit: MesoWest/University of Utah via National Weather Service.

The closeness of Monday night’s amazing gusts in both time and space, as part of a multi-hour ramp-up in wind speeds, is a strong clue that the data are likely valid. Also lending credence is the location of these two stations: near ridgetops in a highly wind-prone area. “Everything would suggest that it’s pretty legit,” said John Horel (University of Utah), an expert in Western weather and climate and coordinator of the MesoWest observation network. I also got in touch with Sam Kieckhefer, the public relations coordinator for Squaw Valley/Alpine Meadows. “As far as what people have seen in recent history, it’s definitely the highest [wind gust] that has been noted,” Kieckhefer said of the 199-mph gust. The two Squaw Valley stations were installed in the 1980s, with the Siberia station at close to standard height (10 meters, or about 33 feet); information on the height of the other station wasn't immediately available. Gusts at these stations are reported every second (i.e., instantaneously), according to Western Weather Group, which works with Squaw Valley on data collection. The 1-second tempo is typical of Remote Automatic Weather Stations (RAWS). It would tend to yield slightly higher values than the 5-second gusts used by stations in the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS). Still, it appears that the 199-mph gust could be a valid contender for the highest wind gust in California weather annals and one of the strongest gusts recorded near ground level in U.S. history.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Video 1. Drone footage of the iconic 72-foot diameter Glory Hole spillway at Monticello Dam on Monday, Feb. 20, 2017, in Lake Berryessa, California.

Flood High Wind

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update gentlemen, a dire situation.
Thanks Dr. and Mr. Henson; a pretty remarkable event all the way around:


Thanks for the read Cat.6

I am committing the cardinal sin and using the Mesoscale models to see where this incoming GOM Low is going. A lot of them are showing a full fledged closed system develop off the coast of E FL, and then turning back west and making landfall around EC FL. Especially the NAM. This may kind of explain the elevated TCFP around S FL right now.... I think... maybe....

One Example: 12k NAM:

The jet was/is far above the Sierra crest, running around 35,000 feet altitude more or less, so wasn't directly responsible for those strong winds. In fact, the jet max is still overhead, but ridge winds have since come down. The proximity of high speed jet winds plays some role in that it enhances winds beneath it by pulling them toward the jet axis and max. In this instance, there was already a strong low level jet ahead of the cold front which was being squeezed, and so accelerated, as it climbed up and over the Sierra crest. The upper jet probably added to the acceleration.
FSU phase diagrams show the system that will pass near Florida as cold-core.
The GOM low is a very broad area that will probably be drawn across the Northern Gulf and Florida; could not tell at this point how deep it might get downstream but it presently has quite a lot of work to do to work down to a decent amount of centralized surface vorticity. A very broad circulation at the moment per the 2:00 pm EST Cimss update:

Why a year after and El nino is when we feel the effects on California?
30 Years Of Presidential Quotes On Climate Change

QUIZ: Which President Said It?

Do you know where recent U.S. presidents stand on climate change? The facts may surprise you. In honor of Presidents’ Day on February 20th, we created this quiz of presidential climate quotes. Test your knowledge to see how you stack up.


Link
I'm sorry... "Glory Hole" spillway is now my favorite thing that has happened in the last 24 hours.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
does any one know is that little swirl of clouds west of new orleans the low thats coming to florida? the bouys out there have dropping pressures. thanks
Quoting 10. Tampa969mlb:

does any one know is that little swirl of clouds west of new orleans the low thats coming to florida? the bouys out there have dropping pressures. thanks


Yes it is per the recent Tally NWS update below:

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
224 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The closed low at 500 mb currently centered over Louisiana will
slide southeastward overnight and is expected to be centered south
of Mobile by dawn. Ahead of it, a large area of rain is likely to
continue to overspread the region from west to east as deep layer
moisture is advected northward with southerly flow. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to be across the Florida panhandle and
southeast Alabama where 1 to 3 inches is expected. Progressively
lighter amounts are expected farther to the east, tapering down to
just a quarter to half inch around Valdosta. Instability is expected
to be limited, so the chance of thunderstorms appears to be confined
to offshore during the overnight hours, although an isolated
thunderstorm is possible across the panhandle during the remainder
of this afternoon. Overnight lows will generally range from the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper low will be moving over our just south of the forecast
area during the day on Wednesday. This will focus the best forcing
across the eastern portions of the region by daybreak and then
shifting out of the area by afternoon. One last piece of energy
moving by on Wednesday evening could lead to a few scattered
showers across the area.

By Thursday morning, heights begin to rise as the upper low moves
into the Western Atlantic and heads away from Florida. Low level
wrap around moisture in the eastern areas will lead to some early
morning cloudiness, but by afternoon skies should at least be
partly cloudy with temperatures warming through the mid to upper
70s. With little in the way of an airmass change with this system,
do not expect temperatures overnight to change much through the
period, generally in the upper 50s to near 60.

Quoting 4. BayFog:

The jet was/is far above the Sierra crest, running around 35,000 feet altitude more or less, so wasn't directly responsible for those strong winds. In fact, the jet max is still overhead, but ridge winds have since come down. The proximity of high speed jet winds plays some role in that it enhances winds beneath it by pulling them toward the jet axis and max. In this instance, there was already a strong low level jet ahead of the cold front which was being squeezed, and so accelerated, as it climbed up and over the Sierra crest. The upper jet probably added to the acceleration.


Thanks, Bayfog--great points. I've revised that sentence to incorporate the lower-level component.
The current greatest vorticity is at the mid-level (500 mb) per the NWS discussion below: still primarily a mid-level feature trying to work down to the surface:





Cool video of the Lake Berryessa Glory Hole.

In Northeastern Minnesota there is a natural glory hole called the Devil's Kettle. A waterfall on the Brule River is split in two one half goes over the falls and flows normally to Lake Superior the other half flows over the falls into the Kettle and nobody has been able to figure out where it goes.

Well back outside to enjoy the last of this perfect stretch of days. current temp 49f, light wind at 8mph and sunny skies.

These warm temps have melted quite a bit of snow making accessing any part of a lake by truck for ice fishing so much easier this year. We are not by any means out of the woods but I like how the latter half of winter has shaped up.

Have a good day all and visit the Devil's Kettle if in the area as the drive there from Duluth is spectacular
Storm: More rescues in Coyote Creek, Highway 17 closure | Mercury News
(Below is an excerpt. Click the above link for the complete article with photos.)
....

Rescue crews were using boats to evacuate six to 10 people a time. Once on dry land, residents were sprayed down with clean water. Firefighters have been decontaminating anyone with significant exposure to waters from Coyote Creek because “we don’t know what’s in the water.”

Dharmalyn Bautista, 18, was one of the residents who was rescued Tuesday. Bautista said her cousin woke up Tuesday and told her to look outside.

“When we woke up, the boats were already here,” Bautista said.

....
Quoting 7. Gearsts:

Why a year after and El nino is when we feel the effects on California?


I would love to hear a discussion on this and prevailing theories.
Recall in 2014-15 we had technically entered a weak El Nino by that Fall and Cali was meet with more epic drought, in 2015-16 we had godzilla el nino and we saw an average year precip wise, except so cal who remained bone dry. Now we are pacing well above the wettest year on record for the upper 2/3rds of the state... what changed?
My guess is "The Blob" was still making its presence known. Notice in the image below in 2016 there wasn't a cold pool from the equator to Alaska, but In the 1997 there was?
This year we have had a more traditional and very strong PDO horseshoe signature with the cool pool in the Gulf of Alaska. Perhaps all along it was not about El Nino in its raw definition but the shape of the PDO? Someone put out the Scott Signal.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cda s-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
SFO Radar, Storm Totals



Quoting 14. nymore:

Cool video of the Lake Berryessa Glory Hole.

In Northeastern Minnesota there is a natural glory hole called the Devil's Kettle. A waterfall on the Brule River is split in two one half goes over the falls and flows normally to Lake Superior the other half flows over the falls into the Kettle and nobody has been able to figure out where it goes.

Well back out side to enjoy the last of this perfect stretch of days. current temp 49f, light wind at 8mph and sunny skies.

These warm temps have melted quite a bit of snow making accessing any part of a lake by truck for ice fishing so much easier this year. We are not by any means out of the woods but I like how the latter half of winter has shaped up.

Have a good day all and visit the Devil's Kettle if in the area as the drive there from Duluth is spectacular


How long is the ice going to hold out with these temperatures?
Quoting 17. Patrap:


My best friend is a PG&E lineman working from Pismo to the Santa Cruz Mountains, he is becoming independently wealthy from overtime this year... but his wife is not to happy :-p
16. civEngineer
8:18 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
1 +
Quoting 7. Gearsts:


Why a year after and El nino is when we feel the effects on California?


I would love to hear a discussion on this and prevailing theories.
Recall in 2014-15 we had technically entered a weak El Nino by that Fall and Cali was meet with more epic drought, in 2015-16 we had godzilla el nino and we saw an average year precip wise, except so cal who remained bone dry. Now we are pacing well above the wettest year on record for the upper 2/3rds of the state... what changed?


My 2 cents :

APRIL 1, 2016
Rise of the 'Ridiculously Resilient Ridge': California drought patterns becoming more common, Stanford scientists say
Atmospheric patterns resembling those that appeared during the latter half of California’s ongoing multi-year drought are becoming more common.


Link
Quoting 18. georgevandenberghe:



How long is the ice going to hold out with these temperatures?


Average ice out is something like April 26th. I have seen it out in the middle of March and seen it last until Mid to late May. A few years ago the summer fishing season opened ( usually may 14th or around there) and people were still ice fishing walking out of course.

This last week has caused some landings to get crappy and some small swirl holes (new auger holes that have not froze and snow melt runs into) but all in all plenty safe where I live. The temps starting tomorrow will tighten it up again.

Hope this answers your question
Quoting 21. nymore:



Average ice out is something like April 26th. I have seen it out in the middle of March and seen it last until Mid to late May. A few years ago the summer fishing season opened ( usually may 14th or around there) and people were still ice fishing walking out of course.

This last week has caused some landings to get crappy and some small swirl holes (new auger holes that have not froze and snow melt runs into) but all in all plenty safe where I live. The temps starting tomorrow will tighten it up again.

There is no safe ice left in SW Ontario, as a matter of fact my pond is ice free and full of waterfowl at the moment.
Thanks for the Update Gentlemen.
What's changed ?
The RRR , and it's ugly handmaiden ........ "The Blob"




TWC said the flooding in San Jose was planned, but did not explain what the planning was, anyone in CA care to shed light on that ?
24. RobertWC
3:49 PM EST on February 21, 2017

That article is a little older and probably from earlier last year (actually 2015) when the warm Blob was dominating that part of the Pacific for a long time; it reversed course over the last 12 months and is/has been a cold blob now;






I got to think with millions, and millions of standing dead trees, wet soil, and these wind speeds this winter, there's going to be a lot of "widow makers" hanging around this season when people get back into the forest.

I wouldn't be surprised to see large patches of "blow downs" in these dead zones, when the drones start flying .
Quoting 26. weathermanwannabe:

24. RobertWC
3:49 PM EST on February 21, 2017

That article is a little older and probably from earlier last year (actually 2015) when the warm Blob was dominating that part of the Pacific for a long time; it reversed course over the last 12 months and is/has been a cold blob now;








I believe that was is his and my point. The hot blob became cold blob and the firehose turned on CA.
Quoting 25. MahFL:

TWC said the flooding in San Jose was planned, but did not explain what the planning was, anyone in CA care to shed light on that ?


I think I figured it out, Anderson Lake has a spillway which goes into Coyote Creek, Anderson Lake must have overflowed, flooding part of San Jose.
Quoting 28. civEngineer:


I believe that was is his and my point. The hot blob became cold blob and the firehose turned on CA.


I am wondering as well to what degree this reversal was part of the answer to this current strong Pineapple Express as compared to the drought period of the last several years...........Fascinating stuff.
After this current storm in CA, the SAC NWS says another storm is coming next week...eek.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 211958 UTC.


Other regions always get the cool names.......


TROPICAL CYCLONE BART CENTRE [994HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1S 159.6W
AT 211800 UTC.
Been waiting on the front to arrive in the Florida Big Bend all afternoon and the front-edge of it has been in the vicinity of Panama City now for a few hours..................Someone might get caught in some heavier training bands at some point from this low as it slowly moves across; I hope it picks ups some speed and thankfully not a very wet system at the moment due to all of that dry air in the Gulf.

Satellite

26. weathermanwannabe

Exactly, but Civil asked what's changed ?
Even as we cycled through El's and Lala's.

The thing is the "Blob", and the "RRR" /
They laid down , and water the machine when into overdrive with no El's and Lala's.
Not a classic pattern at all , but neither was the "Blob", and the "RRR". With killed everything from sea stars to pine trees.

I am in the camp that while the old patterns are hanging on , they are under assault from this "Brave New World" we have made for ourselves.

As Gracie said,
Logic and proportion have fallin' sloppy dead.
Thanks for the update, guys.

2.52 inches of rain and melted snow in the last 40 hours at my PWS just east of Truckee.

One of my younger friends told me of skateboarding inside the downstream end of that gloryhole several years ago.
next name if this system has gale force winds in all quadrants will be "Cook".

Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
6:00 AM FST February 22 2017
============================
Northeast of Tonga

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1000 hPa) located at 20.5S 174.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position fair based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 17 knots.

Gale Force winds within 60-180 NM in the sector from northwest through north to southeast

Deep convection has increased and organization has improved in past 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment with moderate divergence aloft. Cyclone circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap yields DT=2.5. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeast with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS: 22.9S 170.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 25.8S 166.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
"Which" not "With" ... @ # 35

Too many little punctuation marks that turn into fruit salad if one edits.
Quoting 16. civEngineer:



I would love to hear a discussion on this and prevailing theories.
Recall in 2014-15 we had technically entered a weak El Nino by that Fall and Cali was meet with more epic drought, in 2015-16 we had godzilla el nino and we saw an average year precip wise, except so cal who remained bone dry. Now we are pacing well above the wettest year on record for the upper 2/3rds of the state... what changed?
My guess is "The Blob" was still making its presence known. Notice in the image below in 2016 there wasn't a cold pool from the equator to Alaska, but In the 1997 there was?
This year we have had a more traditional and very strong PDO horseshoe signature with the cool pool in the Gulf of Alaska. Perhaps all along it was not about El Nino in its raw definition but the shape of the PDO? Someone put out the Scott Signal.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cda s-sflux_ssta_global_1.png


Probably the combo. The Cold Pool causes the Pacific jet to run through lower latitudes where it's able to scoop up the extra moisture coming out of the equatorial regions thanks to El Nino. While there was no El Nino in place this season, the waters of the easternmost Pacific region remained warmer than normal. It also seems probable that the overall global warming trend has put more moisture in the atmosphere.
Brian your London image rang a bell -

From the PBS Newshour last night , in India , they burn diesel that is illegal in the US and Europe. High sulphur.
13 of the top 20 most polluted cities are in India .
It's funny , but the first 3 letters in the word diesel spell die.

Fighting to breathe in the world’s most polluted city

CIA Whistleblower Speaks Out About Climate Engineering

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl5NW9KcMt0&t=618 s
37. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
9:25 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
2 +
next name if this system has gale force winds in all quadrants will be "Cook".


The sea captain, or the stove ?
guten tag
Too bad I didn't know about the Kettle 30 yrs ago nymore, turned N at Grand Marais to head to Boundary Waters. Def had time on way back to run up there b4 staying in Duluth night b4 the 13 hr ride back to S C IL.

Per post in previous blog, have only seen 67 for StL today, but not official station, but appears consecutive days above 70 won't be broken. Made 65 here, had under a tenth in gauge at noon. Hopefully the drier areas to my west in IL & MO received more to help. Low snow totals so far under '53-'54 levels is a little concerning as big drought that summer & state all time high of 117 was set 7-14-54 in E StL.
wie geht es euch allen
!!! 6,648 spills of 5,000 gallons or more from fracking in just four states in 10 years: Half of spills due to pipes and valves

Anybody what to run these numbers, while I look up Joni Mitchell , you know, that paved parking lot song?


Moisture continues to stream under an overhead jet axis from the SF Bay NE along the I-80 corridor. Occasional moderate to heavy showers, but also areas of bright sunshine and mild temps.
CIA Whistleblower Speaks Out About Climate Engineering

Link
199 GUST?
Having a hard time with these numbers
no where near where we live......not sure I buy that idea....
Quoting 40. BayFog:


Probably the combo. The Cold Pool causes the Pacific jet to run through lower latitudes where it's able to scoop up the extra moisture coming out of the equatorial regions thanks to El Nino. While there was no El Nino in place this season, the waters of the easternmost Pacific region remained warmer than normal. It also seems probable that the overall global warming trend has put more moisture in the atmosphere.
Quoting 52. 19N81W:



Having a hard time with these numbers


hey whats up
Quoting 52. 19N81W:



Having a hard time with these numbers


If you have the right decoder, the numbers (WU-216742)  = "Troll"..................
Quoting 14. nymore:

Cool video of the Lake Berryessa Glory Hole.

In Northeastern Minnesota there is a natural glory hole called the Devil's Kettle. A waterfall on the Brule River is split in two one half goes over the falls and flows normally to Lake Superior the other half flows over the falls into the Kettle and nobody has been able to figure out where it goes.

Some enterprising tekkie ought to design a drone or even just a locator beacon to find out where it goes.
Quoting 47. wunderkidcayman:

wie geht es euch allen
Und wenn du lange in einen Abgrund blickst, blickt der Abgrund auch in dich hinein.

Everyone have a safe weather evening and be careful driving in the wind and snow on the West Coast and on the East Coast over the next few days.

Quoting 52. 19N81W:

199 GUST?
Having a hard time with these numbers
More than 1 similar observation at great heights.
Quoting 44. RobertWC:
Are you upset that frank727 schooled you on the reality of geoengineering and solar radiation management?

"The modern turbojet engine is one of the most efficient, clean-burning internal combustion engines ever put into service. Particulates in the exhaust are practically nil. WWII aircraft engines, as good as they were for the era, are a different story altogether.

By their nature, carbureted or mechanically fuel injected, reciprocating engines do not burn the fuel perfectly, they are often very good, but not perfect. This results in unburned hydrocarbons and carbon particulates. Also, such engines are not run with a perfect mixture of fuel and air. That is, they are run slightly fuel rich. This is because a lean mixture tends to burn much hotter causing possible damage, often terminal, to the engine. Better to err on the side of rich than lean. Those familiar with engine tuning know about this. And a rich mixture, even slightly so as in a properly tuned engine, produces carbon particulates. Anyone who has ever had an engine with a stuck choke has seen the effects of an extremely rich mixture- black smoke.

Further, WWII aircraft engines used prodigious amounts of oil. In part to lubricate the cylinder walls and rings to avoid piston seizure. This was particularly true in high-performance radial engines where the piston/cylinder wall clearance is greater than in a water-cooled engine. The oil would wind up getting into the combustion chamber and was exhausted as smoke. Or, blow-by gases got into the crankcase and were expelled through a breather as smoke.

What we see today versus the older WW2 planes are NOT normal, that some particulate matter is being injected into the exhaust gases of the jets to make the contrails persistent. If you research solar radiation management or geoengineering you get far more scientific results."
Quoting 57. BaltimoreBrian:

Und wenn du lange in einen Abgrund blickst, blickt der Abgrund auch in dich hinein.




Nein, ich bin nicht so poetisch

anyway Brian how are you long time eh
Quoting 61. wunderkidcayman:

Nein, ich bin nicht so poetisch

anyway Brian how are you long time eh
I am well, just back from vacation.
60. WU-216742
10:17 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
0 +
Quoting 44. RobertWC:
Are you upset that frank727 schooled you on the reality of geoengineering and solar radiation management?


No, I'm upset that logic and proportion have fallin' sloppy dead.

Quoting 62. BaltimoreBrian:

I am well, just back from vacation.


that's good

hey we have a VIP guest visiting Cayman came in flying a C-40 Clipper from 89th Airlift Wing out of Andrews AFB
they are here till Wed
hey Wunderkid how are you?
not much just doing some after hours work.....obviously on here also!
just blown away by how dry things are....and its made more official today on CNS....
whats with the German?
Quoting 54. wunderkidcayman:



hey whats up
not saying its not real just cant believe its that high.......
Quoting 59. BaltimoreBrian:

More than 1 similar observation at great heights.
Regarding the 'Florida Low' perhaps it is time for IPV - thinking, isentropic potential vorticity, which worms its way to the ground from aloft thus lowering surface pressures.
Quoting 67. 19N81W:

not saying its not real just cant believe its that high.......



I recall a report in Colorado years ago , on the East slope just a below the divide ? Acres of healthy trees were blown down . I mean acres , like giant hand swept across them , and pushed them over.
Quoting 64. Xandra:

RE: #50

GeoengWatch Debunked




Lol! HUGE following...
Quoting 66. 19N81W:

hey Wunderkid how are you?
not much just doing some after hours work.....obviously on here also!
just blown away by how dry things are....and its made more official today on CNS....
whats with the German?



im ok

its dry but still the news is kinda over hyping it its been this dry and dryer before but it has been a while

I think spring will replenish us and it might just get really wet then

oh just having fun with the German I did German years ago when I was in school like before high school times thought I had lost it from all them years ago but I still got some left in that brain of mine
btw who is WU-216742
Quoting 51. LowerCal:

I think the "plan" is with the past and future primary outlet releases is to keep Anderson Reservoir at a level where it can serve as a buffer to any possible large inflow surge that would otherwise result in worse flooding downstream or even imperil the dam itself.


Anderson is a special case. The lake has capacity of ~98k acre-ft, but state and federal agencies want the water district to limit it to 68% of capacity because the dam needs seismic upgrades. Therefore, I expect they will continue to release water from the dam even after the latest storm passes in order to get down to the mandated level.

From what I read in the fishwrap version of the Merky News yesterday, the plan for Anderson is to begin the seismic upgrade in 2020 and complete it in 2024. Oy.
69. WU-216742

See you can hot link
Now answer B-17 question , what were those boys spraying , on their way to bomb the ball bearing plant in Germany? And why does water leak out your tail pipe sitting line at the gas station ?

Selenium deficiency promoted by climate change

That's an interesting link partly because I have a sentimental attachment to selenium from memories of my father from time to time remarking on the dangers and benefits of the element. Of course, everyone has stories like that.

Selenium is a great example of something that is vital in micro quantities and harmful in slightly larger micro quantities.
Quoting 73. wunderkidcayman:

btw who is WU-216742


A high jacker . Who may or may not be real , And that's the point , to change the subject so we all run off down the Rabbit hole.

I passed Alice an hour ago.
Oh oh :

"FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
A DAM BREAK IN...
CENTRAL LYON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA..."
Quoting 73. wunderkidcayman:

btw who is WU-216742


Alex Jones got an account on here now.
Quoting 78. bappit:

Selenium deficiency promoted by climate change

That's an interesting link partly because I have a sentimental attachment to selenium from memories of my father from time to time remarking on the dangers and benefits of the element. Of course, everyone has stories like that.

Selenium is a great example of something that is vital in micro quantities and harmful in slightly larger micro quantities.


harmful in slightly larger micro quantities.

Water fowl in the Central Valley of California comes to mind.
Quoting 83. WU-216742:



I'm done with you.
Quoting 82. RobertWC:



harmful in slightly larger micro quantities.

Water fowl in the Central Valley of California comes to mind.


I grew up in a little town called Gustine 3 miles from Kesterson NWR. Like all things... moderation.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV  
1239 PM PST TUE FEB 21 2017  
   
..IMMINENT RETENTION POND FAILURE AFFECTING EAST DAYTON
 
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RENO HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
A DAM BREAK IN...  
CENTRAL LYON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL NEVADA...  
 
* UNTIL 630 PM PST  
 
* AT 1233 PM PST, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THE IMMINENT FAILURE  
OF THE SOUTH DAYTON RETENTION POND IN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO ONE  
HOUR. BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET OF WATER COULD INUNDATE AREAS OF EAST  
DAYTON WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS OF FAILURE.  
 
* AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE EAST DAYTON INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO,  
THESE STREETS...COMSTOCK, SUTRO, DAYTON VALLEY ROAD.  
 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND  
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL UNLESS YOU ARE  
FLEEING AN AREA SUBJECT TO FLOODING OR UNDER AN EVACUATION ORDER.  
 
LAT...LON 3929 11948 3925 11945 3923 11952 3926 11954  
3928 11953  
 
 
 
SS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Quoting 74. SouthBayDrK:



Anderson is a special case. The lake has capacity of ~98k acre-ft, but state and federal agencies want the water district to limit it to 68% of capacity because the dam needs seismic upgrades. Therefore, I expect they will continue to release water from the dam even after the latest storm passes in order to get down to the mandated level.

From what I read in the fishwrap version of the Merky News yesterday, the plan for Anderson is to begin the seismic upgrade in 2020 and complete it in 2024. Oy.
Thanks for imparting the knowledge to dispel my speculation! :^)
Quoting 83. WU-216742:

.


ZIP , now you're making sense.
Around 10:30PM Pacific Time last night (2/20) I saw the following anomaly on radar near Rio Vista, CA. In the radar loop, the red blob remained stationary while the precipitation moved. Please follow link...I couldn't figure out how to embed the image!

Radar image




Quoting 64. Xandra:

RE: #50

GeoengWatch Debunked

From that account:: 


Yes, that is *exactly* how certain dangerously mentally ill people think and speak.
Quoting 79. RobertWC:



A high jacker . Who may or may not be real , And that's the point , to change the subject so we all run off down the Rabbit hole.

I passed Alice an hour ago.


hmm

Quoting 81. OKsky:



Alex Jones got an account on here now.


lol ok dear god lmao gotta be jk right
There's a starman waiting in the sky
He's told us not to blow it
'Cause he knows it's all worthwhile


The universe is about to get a little more crowded with planets
Ashley Strickland-Profile-Image
By Ashley Strickland, CNN
Updated 2:10 PM ET, Tue February 21, 2017




The single dwarf star these four planets are orbiting is cooler and less than half the size of our sun, which means that even though they are close to their star, they are still within the habitable zone.
Last August, researchers confirmed the existence of a rocky planet named Proxima b orbiting Proxima Centauri, the closest star to our sun. It is the closest exoplanet to us in the universe.Given the fact that Proxima b is within the habitable zone of its star, meaning liquid water could exist on the surface, it may also be the closest possible home for life outside of our solar system
Quoting 90. dmalitz:

Around 10:30PM Pacific Time last night (2/20) I saw the following anomaly on radar near Rio Vista, CA. In the radar loop, the red blob remained stationary while the precipitation moved. Please follow link...I couldn't figure out how to embed the image!

Link







The radar catches the wind turbines located there.
Quoting 86. civEngineer:



I grew up in a little town called Gustine 3 miles from Kesterson NWR. Like all things... moderation.


I drilled on a geothermal rig based at Fallon , going to the Carson Sink on a Sunday was always a good, thing. And on our weather days I always made my way to little libraries.
Moderation is the best thing, except for learning, no one's head never ever exploded from learning too much.
Quoting 52. 19N81W:
199 GUST?
Having a hard time with these numbers
If I read the article right, that's a one second observation. I looked up the sensors used in the automated stations and found that sometimes RAWS uses an ultrasonic wind speed detector with no moving parts. They are heated and seem ideal for conditions on top of a mountain. Don't know if they use them in this case, though.

I would expect greater latency from a regular cup anemometer as opposed to how an ultrasonic sensor operates. It seems possible that the devices on the mountaintops in that area could be ultra sensitive. Just speculation.

Found this on a web page about building an ultrasonic sensor for fun.

"An ultrasonic anemometer on the other hand sends and receives ultrasonic pulses and measures the time-of-flight. From the time-of-flight (or the time difference, depending on your approach) you can then calculate the wind speed in a given direction. Add a second pair of senders and receivers at a 90-degree angle and you get both wind speed and direction."
Quoting 56. BayFog:


Some enterprising tekkie ought to design a drone or even just a locator beacon to find out where it goes.
Just throw a bunch of rubber ducks into it and watch where they pop to the surface.
Quoting 14. nymore:

Cool video of the Lake Berryessa Glory Hole.

In Northeastern Minnesota there is a natural glory hole called the Devil's Kettle. A waterfall on the Brule River is split in two one half goes over the falls and flows normally to Lake Superior the other half flows over the falls into the Kettle and nobody has been able to figure out where it goes.

Well back outside to enjoy the last of this perfect stretch of days. current temp 49f, light wind at 8mph and sunny skies.

These warm temps have melted quite a bit of snow making accessing any part of a lake by truck for ice fishing so much easier this year. We are not by any means out of the woods but I like how the latter half of winter has shaped up.

Have a good day all and visit the Devil's Kettle if in the area as the drive there from Duluth is spectacular


Am I the only one here who really thinks they should find a more appropriate name other than "glory hole"?
Quoting 102. Jedkins01:



Am I the only one here who really thinks they should find a more appropriate name other than "glory hole"?


No doubt it's an old phrase from a simpler time. But watching the video gives me the creeps.
Q:
How many planes are in the air at any given time?
A:
QUICK ANSWER
It's estimated that there are around 5,000 planes in the air over the United States at any given time. There are probably a couple of thousand more airplanes flying in other parts of the world, and about 500,000 people are in those planes.


PBS is running series called "City In The Sky"
About our flight habits.


A 'Dzud' Comes Every 12 Years. Except for This Time
40K livestock are already dead in Mongolia; 1M died last year
By Newser Editors and Wire Services, Posted Feb 21, 2017 12:30 PM CST
It may rhyme with "dud," but it packs a deadly wallop: A dzud (pronounced 'ZUHD) is an extreme weather phenomenon unique to Mongolia that's characterized by a summer drought and then a prolonged winter of heavy snow and temperatures of minus 40 to minus 59 degrees Fahrenheit. ...

Climate change in the North Sea: oysters in, cod out
The temperature of the North Sea is increasing with climate change. Good news for immigrant species - bad news for cold-loving residents. What else does global warming have in store for marine life of the North Sea?
DW, 21.02.2017

Thousands of spills at US oil and gas fracking sites
BBC, By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, 21 February 2017

Scott Pruitt does not mention climate change in first speech as EPA director
The former Oklahoma attorney general’s only reference to the 'toxic environment' was related to politics
The Independent, Tuesday 21 February 2017 20:54 GMT
Quoting 102. Jedkins01:



Am I the only one here who really thinks they should find a more appropriate name other than "glory hole"?
Lol....you just had to go there?
Quoting 103. RobertWC:



No doubt it's an old phrase from a simpler time. But watching the video gives me the creeps.


I went to college at UC Davis, so I was close enough to Lake Berryessa to go there occasionally. The first time I saw that spillway in action, all I could imagine (and dream about) was getting sucked down that drain.
109. MahFL
Quoting 93. WU-216742:




It looks like that often here in NE FL.
Well, did WU just swallow my most recent lenghthy post about the upcoming windstorm Doris/Thomas in northwestern Europe? :-( ... If so .... I'm in bed now anyway. Good night!
It's eating comments?
Jenkins, check out the disambiguation page on Wikipedia. The term is used in mining, petroleum production, glass blowing and spillways. It's also a name of a battle field in WW I.

From the Wikipedia spillway article:

"A bell-mouth spillway[10] is designed like an inverted bell where water can enter around the entire perimeter. These uncontrolled spillways are also called morning glory,[11] (after the flower) or glory hole[11] spillways."

I don't know what you're talking about.
Quoting 106. washingtonian115:

Lol....you just had to go there?


Hey I'm not a crude person, but at the end of the day, as a college student, certain meanings for current cultural sayings are going to stand out to me. Besides, I think people are being dishonest if they didn't feel the same lol.
105. barbamz

Their are many great readers here , we all thank-you for being outside our world. (The US).

I was struck about your cod story, and my kelp story, and new coral death report from the Maldives In one day .

How could a left wing power play , drive all the kelp forest from New Zealand , and banish cod from Norway, and kill coral in the Maldives ?

If NOAA and NASA are corrupt ? What's killing the kelp ? And driving the cod? Killing coral on the Great Reef ?

Certainly if this was world's largest fake science , nature would have gone about it's merry way. But nature is doing what was said so long, long along .

"Watching mother nature on the run in the 1970's".
Mods do something about this ................

WU-216742
Quoting 109. MahFL:



It looks like that often here in NE FL.


Same here in Northern CA almost daily.
Quoting 106. washingtonian115:

Lol....you just had to go there?


I' with him on this one
Other wise I will , and I get banned for 72 hours .

This dog, makes our usual suspects look like they were models for when "The School of Athens" was painted.
Quoting 102. Jedkins01:



Am I the only one here who really thinks they should find a more appropriate name other than "glory hole"?


They use that term up here where there is a high concentration of gold in one spot.
Good evening folks

World weather continues to be topsy turvey.

The Caribbean is no exception. It was confirmed today that rainfall in Grand Cayman was 50% of average for 2016 and short to long term outlook being drought conditions. Of course it depends on where the rain gauge is but my station showed the same. Already hot and dusty here
Quoting 128. kmanislander:

Good evening folks

World weather continues to be topsy turvey.

The Caribbean is no exception. It was confirmed today that rainfall in Grand Cayman was 50% of average for 2016 and short to long term outlook being drought conditions. Of course it depends on where the rain gauge is but my station showed the same. Already hot and dusty here


I'm sure California will share some rain with you.
Quoting 128. kmanislander:

Good evening folks

World weather continues to be topsy turvey.

The Caribbean is no exception. It was confirmed today that rainfall in Grand Cayman was 50% of average for 2016 and short to long term outlook being drought conditions. Of course it depends on where the rain gauge is but my station showed the same. Already hot and dusty here

I am afraid k what you are experiencing
is to be more a abnormal normal for a bit and then some
only relief will be tropical season
and then it may be the all at once effect

Quoting 125. WU-216742:



Can't handle the truth, eh?


The truth is something I spent my entire life in , except when I ate peyote, and ate double 00 capsules of Mescaline.

Spotting you is like shooting ducks in a dying Arctic Pond.
Quoting 129. Dakster:



I'm sure California will share some rain with you.


There's always too much where not needed. Not too long ago California was in the grip of a prolonged drought.
Quoting 125. WU-216742:



Can't handle the truth, eh?

you have no idea what truth is
but I can tell you
better yet show you
whenever I choose so
Quoting 132. kmanislander:



There's always too much where not needed. Not too long ago California was in the grip of a prolonged drought.


5 years
now bounty with overflowing reserves
but it come with a price yet to be payed
Quoting 125. WU-216742:



Can't handle the truth, eh?


what truth? all youve done is post dumb memes.
Quoting 130. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I am afraid k what you are experiencing
is to be more a abnormal normal for a bit and then some
only relief will be tropical season
and then it may be the all at once effect




The tropical waves have been pretty dry for the past few seasons. I think we have definitely entered a new period of tropical weather. Less active in terms of strength and precipitation. Even with all the activity in 2016 only half the average rainfall here in 2016 !

Quoting 22. gr8lakebreeze:


There is no safe ice left in SW Ontario, as a matter of fact my pond is ice free and full of waterfowl at the moment.


There is no safe ice ever.

In SW Ontario you are quite a bit south of me, in southern Mn I would not trust lake ice at all except on the coldest years, in northern Mn the temps are very different and our permanent fish houses can stay on the lake nearly one month longer legally than southern Minnesota. Sw Minnesota for example we call the Banana Belt around here.
133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

This gibberish went on for hours, He has zero understanding of what happens when we burn Jet-A at 33,000 feet. Or gasoline at sea level.
Quoting 134. WU-216742:



A threat? How drastic.
Why does the truth scare you so much? Wouldn't you like to be aware, rather than ignorant? Educate yourself, do it for your children and grandchildren.


I have no children and grandchildren. Long ago I chose not have them. There are 7.3 Billion of us. That's plenty.

Wind damage in Washington state from a 2008 atmospheric river storm.
Credits: Flickr user Richard Saxon, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

Feb. 21, 2017
In Atmospheric River Storms, Wind Is a Risk, Too


NASA Study Shows Storms Bring High Wind Damage Along With Flooding

Atmospheric river storms are hailed as drought-busters when they bring needed rain and snow, but they have a well-known dark side: damaging floods. A new NASA study documents a second destructive force in these storms: high winds.

The study shows that atmospheric rivers were associated with almost half of the most extreme mid-latitude windstorms globally for the past 20 years, doing billions of dollars in damage.

An atmospheric river is a long, narrow stream of water vapor carried by wind that can cause storms. Satellite observations show that this weather pattern occurs all over the world, even around Antarctica. Atmospheric river storms are common in wintertime along the U.S. West Coast, where rain and snow are often needed. For that reason, Americans tend to think of them mainly in terms of precipitation.

"Our study highlights the risks of extreme and hazardous winds that can occur with atmospheric river storms, in addition to the more well-known risks from heavy precipitation," said Duane Waliser of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California. Waliser is lead author of the new study published Feb. 20 in Nature Geoscience.

Waliser and Bin Guan, of JPL’s and UCLA’s Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, used global weather analysis records and NASA satellite precipitation data for their study. They examined what fraction of global storms that feature extreme wind and precipitation -- over both land and sea -- occurred in conjunction with atmospheric rivers. Over mid-latitude oceans, where high winds can be a threat to shipping, this weather pattern is associated with up to half of the most extreme wind and precipitation occurrences. Similarly, the researchers studied the correlation between atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitation, also looking at the top 2 percent of precipitation-producing storms. They found that, as with windstorms, atmospheric rivers are associated with up to half of these extreme precipitation events across the same mid-latitude regions.

Atmospheric rivers that make landfall have a greater potential for destruction. The researchers examined the most destructive windstorms of the last 20 years -- the top 2 percent in terms of wind speeds near Earth's surface. They found that atmospheric rivers were associated with up to half of these storms along the world’s mid-latitude coastlines. Often, the highest wind speed ever recorded on a coastline was associated with an atmospheric river storm.

To get an idea of the potential economic consequences of these storms, Waliser and Guan consulted a database of the 19 most expensive European windstorms, in terms of insurance losses, between 1997 and 2013. They found that atmospheric rivers were associated with 14 (about 75 percent) of these events. Together, these 14 storms accounted for more than $25 billion in insured losses.

The extent of these correlations came as something of surprise to the researchers. Since atmospheric rivers are, by definition, extreme cases of winds transporting moisture, "We expected that there would be an association," Guan said, "but the degree of the connection exceeded our expectation."

NASA collects data from space, air, land and sea to increase our understanding of our home planet, improve lives and safeguard our future. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth's interconnected natural systems with long-term data records. The agency freely shares this unique knowledge and works with institutions around the world to gain new insights into how our planet is changing.

Alan Buis
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California
818-354-0474
Alan.Buis@jpl.nasa.gov

Written by Carol Rasmussen
NASA Earth Science News Team
Quoting 136. earthisanocean:



what truth? all youve done is post dumb memes.

There was that 44min long youtube.

The skies certainly don't look like they did a few generations ago. Cloud seeding is a business. Corporations do it, (North Dakota in the house?) But it's also no reason to totally hijack the thread when dam catastrophes are at foot or a reason to attack others. Comments have disappeared as need be by the community (Thanks for flagging:) and such. Just play nice and don't let it turn into monomania.
140. WU-216742

Nice work you learned how to link. So what was all that dead link stuff down below?
Quoting 56. BayFog:


Some enterprising tekkie ought to design a drone or even just a locator beacon to find out where it goes.


They have tried dyes, ping pong balls, trees and whatever people who visit throw in and nothing has ever been found.
Nobody including the professionals have figured it out.
225 San Jose residents were saved from the chest high flood. They soaped them down after to prevent them from being sickened by floodwaters that had traveled through engine fuel, garbage, debris and over sewer lines, San Jose Fire Capt. Mitch Matlow said.

143. Patrap

I posted this at like 5 AM. last thread . Different source , but who cares . The one thing , these "rivers" are carrying a lot more wind. Then we got these reports of 195 mph wind speeds .
They soaped them down after to prevent them from being sickened by floodwaters that had traveled through engine fuel, garbage, debris and over sewer lines, San Jose Fire Capt. Mitch Matlow said.

And dog dumps, cat boxes, rat crap, raccoon poop, and pidgin peep.

This is a land mark event , washing down flood victims , who has ever seen this before ?
Quoting 93. WU-216742:



Here's a nice site to debunk your chemtrail claims Link
Quoting 148. Skyepony:

225 San Jose residents were saved from the chest high flood. They soaped them down after to prevent them from being sickened by floodwaters that had traveled through engine fuel, garbage, debris and over sewer lines, San Jose Fire Capt. Mitch Matlow said.



This cleaning of victims is new . Make no mistake , it is right , We have to wash the diesel , and gasoline off people's bodies. We are not pulling people from "muddy water' , we are pulling people from a toxic modern soup.
We are not pulling people from "muddy water' , we are pulling people from a toxic modern soup.
Quoting 102. Jedkins01:



Am I the only one here who really thinks they should find a more appropriate name other than "glory hole"?

Even overlooking the meaning we're referring to, there doesn't seem to be anything glorious about that death trap. Why no gates, no nothing? I have worked on underflow gated dams in Arkansas, it always surprised me how someone who didn't know the area could get dragged into the gates or even worse the inflow pipes for the power plant opposite the lock gate. There is zero chance of survival, a 500 ft long concrete water slide on spin cycle mode. I guess my favorite theory (that of darwin and survival) still has meaning out there.
Test - did I just break the blog?
Wow lots of comments not showing anymore for me (from #157 to #205) - right after I posted a comment, gone too.
Quoting 177. vis0:

NASA to Unveil New Exoplanet Discovery Tomorrow ||  Space.com []
 
NASA to Host News Conference on Discovery Beyond Our Solar System || NASA [10.1KB]
 
New Plan to Save Pluto's Planethood Would Make the Moon a Planet, Too || Popular Mechanics [26.1KB]
 
 
...in directly unrelated newz if Pluto is made a planet again nyc landlords will charge planetary prices for nyc apartments. ||  vis0 [-1kB]
 
weather in zip 10016::  Overnite it felt like we returned to spring -like weather here in NYc in the middle of February.
 
i'll look it up,  for thinkers and those that need some brain gear motions to become sleepy if we took an educated guesses, how high of winds could these NWS stations take gusts / sustained U.S. / if you;re knowledgeable in Sustained wPacRim categorizing one could include those numbers (being U.S. and Eastern Asia have different ways to measure wind types.


This warmth in February is precedented. February 1976 was comparable, warmer the last three weeks, cooler the first. February 1976 and March 2012 were the two warm spells that made me feel like I was in some weird alternate world of warmth, in particular March 2012, NW PA on the way to a hockey tourney in Jamestown NY, temps near 80, vegetation FIVE WEEKS advanced March 23. But I remember feeling that way Feb 1976 in DC also.
Quoting 102. Jedkins01:



Am I the only one here who really thinks they should find a more appropriate name other than "glory hole"?

In the gold mining days, "glory hole" referred to a pocket of rich gold ore. It didn't carry any additional meaning at all. When that dam was built the term probably still only had its original meaning, so nobody would've thought twice about it.
NASA:
‏@NASA

New discovery! We're announcing findings on planets orbiting stars other than our sun today at 1pm ET: https://t.co/PYO7Arxtjb Q? #askNASA

Details of these findings are embargoed by the journal Nature until 1 p.m.

For NASA TV streaming video, downlink and updated scheduling information, visit: http://www.nasa.gov/nasatv



There's a starman waiting in the sky
He's told us not to blow it
'Cause he knows it's all worthwhile


The universe is about to get a little more crowded with planets
Ashley Strickland-Profile-Image
By Ashley Strickland, CNN
Updated 2:10 PM ET, Tue February 21, 2017




The single dwarf star these four planets are orbiting is cooler and less than half the size of our sun, which means that even though they are close to their star, they are still within the habitable zone.
Last August, researchers confirmed the existence of a rocky planet named Proxima b orbiting Proxima Centauri, the closest star to our sun. It is the closest exoplanet to us in the universe.Given the fact that Proxima b is within the habitable zone of its star, meaning liquid water could exist on the surface, it may also be the closest possible home for life outside of our solar system
The blog (?) swallowed my comment #202 so here it comes again.

From CSI:

From Chemtrails to CSICon: An Interview with Mick West.

[...]

Susan Gerbic: So, Mick. It’s nice to catch up with you. This website you run, Metabunk, sounds right up the skeptic alley. Tell me about that site.

Mick West: Metabunk is a skeptical forum, where we do investigations into a wide range of phenomena from conspiracy theories to UFOs. We also discuss best practices for communicating the results of an investigation (the debunking) and how to help people get out of the “rabbit hole” of conspiratorial thinking. It grew out of my old blog Contrail Science, which was about chemtrails. Metabunk still has a strong focus on the chemtrail theory.

Gerbic: Chemtrails? Doesn’t everyone know they don’t exist and what they see in the sky are contrails? And the few people who still believe that the government is poisoning us aren’t likely to listen to reason, right? Note: I just looked at the pageview stats for the Chemtrails conspiracy theories Wikipedia page, and 99,560 people visited it in the last thirty days. I suppose I’m living in a bubble.

West: Chemtrails is a surprisingly popular theory; it’s right up there with things like the 9/11 conspiracy theories. It all stems from a fundamental distrust of science and authority. You are always going to get a percentage of people who are true believers. My goal is to minimize that as much as possible, stop people falling for it, and help them get out as easily as possible.

Gerbic: I understand that you are also a pilot. Do you know pilots who believe in this conspiracy theory?

West: I only flew small, single engine planes, which isn’t that hard. I’d not be surprised if some single-engine pilots fell for it. But I’d be very surprised if there were any commercial pilots who believe in it. Most of them have heard of it and find the idea ridiculous and sad. Some of them even get harassed about it, as people think they are part of the plot because their planes leave contrails.

[...]

Gerbic: Tell me about some of your favorite parts of CSICon? Favorite lectures?

West: [...] Something I think would be great to address at CSICon is the function of skepticism in social media—and the role of new media in general. There’s a real danger in falling into a bubble by being overly attached to a traditional set of media (print, blogs, newsletters) that is becoming increasing irrelevant. Skepticism needs to evolve with the understanding that information (and disinformation) is now propagated by Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, etc. Understanding how this works and how we can best use those channels of communication is crucial to keeping skepticism relevant and effective.

[...]

Gerbic: Any last thoughts, Mick?

West: I think that events such as CSICon are becoming more and more important, especially with the election of a president who has what seem to be anti-science leanings. Skeptics are fairly politically diverse, but we are united in our opposition to fake science, alternative facts, charlatans, and bunk. CSICon is part of the solution—a place where we can recharge our skeptical batteries and form and renew connections with other skeptics to try to turn back the tide.

[...]

Click here to read full interview
Quoting 157. BTRsquatter:


Even overlooking the meaning we're referring to, there doesn't seem to be anything glorious about that death trap. Why no gates, no nothing? I have worked on underflow gated dams in Arkansas, it always surprised me how someone who didn't know the area could get dragged into the gates or even worse the inflow pipes for the power plant opposite the lock gate. There is zero chance of survival, a 500 ft long concrete water slide on spin cycle mode. I guess my favorite theory (that of darwin and survival) still has meaning out there.


Similar to how many low-head dams have no hazard signs and/ or are completely unmarked. Those dams, which can be only a few feet high and seemingly benign, have been described as "drowning machines". If you go over the top, the recirculating water can trap you at the bottom. With the turbulent and hyper-aerated water greatly reducing the buyouncy of your PFD and rendering it useless.

There's tens of thousands of these small dams across the United States, including one on a river that I myself paddle frequently. It's unmarked, and so harmless looking. Just a four foot concrete wall with the river spilling over it. Always tempted to just go over it, but I know better (though one day I probably will anyways in a fit of spontaneity)
live shots coming out of truckie calif snow depth looks about 10ft deep
Thousands flee rising floodwaters in San Jose as mandatory evacuation orders are widened
LATimes, feb 22, 8am, Matt Hamilton, Veronica Rocha and Rong-Gong Lin IIContact Reporters
San Jose was hit by what officials described as the worst flooding in 100 years as the Coyote Creek, which runs through the heart of Silicon Valley, overflowed, inundating neighborhoods and forcing thousands to evacuate.
The evacuations covered a large swath of central San Jose and involved thousands of people. Flooding closed the 101 Freeway — a key route through Silicon Valley — as well as other major roads. ...


Latest storm gone but Northern California flooding fears grow as dams overflow
CBS, February 22, 2017, 7:14 AM
MODESTO, Calif. -- Communities downstream from a Northern California reservoir gushing water for the first time in 20 years braced for flash floods and evacuations after authorities warned them to prepare for rising rivers and creeks.
Northern California was forecast to get a brief break from persistent downpours Wednesday but the surge of water released from Don Pedro Dam into the Tuolumne River in the foothills east of Modesto was expected to reach overtopped levees later in the day. ...
I'm about 20 miles east of Sacramento. Impacts were definitely not as bad on us in the valley as it could have been. Some forecasts were projecting 60+ mph gusts and we got up to maybe 10mph. Previous storms this year would have 30 mph gusts and our power knocked out (above-ground) lines. We did have a creek overflow near our home downrange and required a water-rescue for a couple of people on their way home (walking) from community college class. A lot of mushrooms sprung up in the last few days and I'll be picking those up before the dog tries to eat them.

There is definitely water-fatigue setting in for the populace along with a wary eye on the levees. We're hoping that the rain comes and goes without much more impact towards the flood control system. The bigger hope is that the water aquifers are re-charging and that we can have more "normal" winters than wackiness.
Please bring back Old WU.
There in lies the true rub.

Normal' is a fast fading memory..



Above the surface map for tomorrow from German weather service, showing strong secondary low "Thomas" hitting the coast of the Netherlands and further on northern Germany as a strong windstorm, probably with gusts of hurricane force. Before it should have crossed Britain where the storm was dubbed as "Doris".

Right now the secondary low is about to develop. Below the current pic of airmasses with a green arrow from me at the location where I think the storm is just getting born.


Click to enlarge. Source for updates.
If airplanes are responsible for 20% of the CO2 in the atmosphere, then is a discussion about how many planes are in the sky a reasonable topic for the blog comments section? Just wondering.

Here in Ft Lauderdale, the rain didn't arrive, but it's windy and the wave crests are high. Chance of rain 80 percent, down from nearly 100% last night. It didn't rain yet.
Quoting 217. Patrap:

There in lies the true rub.

Normal' is a fast fading memory..




Yes indeed.

Purely anecdotal, but I think it's important: My grandparents lived in Idaho in the mid90s to 00s. They would say that the weather up there would be more whiplash like than CA. Now it "feels" like the whiplash occurs where I am much more frequently. Not used to having sunny/cloudy/rainy/sunny all in a span of two hours etc. We prefer the elegant stretches of cloudy then 3-4 days to transition over to sun lol.

I can't imagine how drastic that contrast is now for people in the mid-west/east coast even the south (that 2015 no-name LA storm still boggles my mind)
Anyway; back to where I left off at 9:00 am; the Gulf low is picking up a little bit of juice this morning just to the South of Apalachicola:

Now it's raining here in Ft Lauderdale.
From The New York Times:

The Pruitt Emails: E.P.A. Chief Was Arm in Arm With Industry


Scott Pruitt, administrator of the E.P.A., at the agency’s headquarters in Washington on Tuesday. Credit Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images

WASHINGTON — During his tenure as attorney general of Oklahoma, Scott Pruitt, now the Environmental Protection Agency administrator, closely coordinated with major oil and gas producers, electric utilities and political groups with ties to the libertarian billionaire brothers Charles G. and David H. Koch to roll back environmental regulations, according to over 6,000 pages of emails made public on Wednesday.

The publication of the correspondence comes just days after Mr. Pruitt was sworn in to run the E.P.A., which is charged with reining in pollution and regulating public health.

“Thank you to your respective bosses and all they are doing to push back against President Obama’s EPA and its axis with liberal environmental groups to increase energy costs for Oklahomans and American families across the states,” said one email sent to Mr. Pruitt and an Oklahoma congressman in August 2013 by Matt Ball, an executive at Americans for Prosperity. That nonprofit group is funded in part by the Kochs, the Kansas business executives who spent much of the last decade combating federal regulations, particularly in the energy sector. “You both work for true champions of freedom and liberty!” the note said.

[...]

An Oklahoma judge ordered the release of the emails in response to a lawsuit by the Center for Media and Democracy, a liberal watchdog group. Many of the emails are copies of documents previously provided in 2014 to The New York Times, which examined Mr. Pruitt’s interaction with energy industry players that his office also helps regulate.

The companies provided him draft letters to send to federal regulators in an attempt to block federal regulations intended to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas wells, ozone air pollution, and chemicals used in fracking, the email correspondence shows.

They held secret meetings to discuss more comprehensive ways to combat the Obama administration’s environmental agenda, and the companies and organizations they funded repeatedly praised Mr. Pruitt and his staff for the assistance he provided in their campaign.

The correspondence points to the tension emerging as Mr. Pruitt is now charged with regulating many of the same companies with which he coordinated closely in his previous position. As attorney general of Oklahoma, Mr. Pruitt took part in 14 lawsuits against major E.P.A. environmental rules, often in coordination with energy companies such as Devon Energy, an Oklahoma oil and gas producer, and American Electric Power, an Ohio-based electric utility.

Click here to read full article.
While it is still winter, and the low in the North Gulf is not warm cored (yet), we have seen this many times in the past in the Eastern Gulf. A sheared low or tropical storm in that region where all the convection is blown off and displaced to the East over the Peninsula of Florida; same MO



Addition to comment #218
Storm Doris set to bring winter's worst weather to UK as warnings extended
More snow forecast for Scotland as high wind warning extended to almost all of England, Wales and Northern Ireland
The Guardian, Wednesday 22 February 2017 14.20 GMT
[...] Thursday - Doris Day, as it has been nicknamed - is likely to see widespread damage to buildings, interruption to power supplies and extensive travel problems. The Met Office is warning of injury from flying debris such as tree branches and roof tiles.
Doris, the fourth named storm of the season, is likely to be worst storm of winter so far, according to the BBC's forecaster Chris Fawkes. "It is going to explosively deepen in the next 24 hours ... probably the worst storm of the winter," he said. ...


"Explosive cyclogenesis":
UK braces for Storm Doris
BBC weather video (Chris Fawkes), 22nd February 2017 Last updated at 13:38
Quoting 223. Xandra:

From The New York Times:

The Pruitt Emails: E.P.A. Chief Was Arm in Arm With Industry


Scott Pruitt, administrator of the E.P.A., at the agency%u2019s headquarters in Washington on Tuesday. Credit Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images

%u201CThank you to your respective bosses and all they are doing to push back against President Obama%u2019s EPA and its axis with liberal environmental groups to increase energy costs for Oklahomans and American families across the states,%u201D


"increase energy costs" for energy companies? they're not exactly innovating oil methods nor did the Obama administration/era have high consumer gasoline consumptions costs. Cripes. Supply and Demand (with a dose of perspectives) would be nice.

pure greed. plain and simple.
Germany bans meat from all official functions

"Earlier this week, Barbara Henricks, Germany’s environment minister, announced that the government would be instituting a ban on meat at official functions, citing the environmental burden of meat production as the reason for the ban.
Animal agriculture is a leading cause of climate change and environmental degradation globally. Livestock like cattle produce methane as a byproduct of digesting their food, and methane is an incredibly potent greenhouse gas — 86 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20 year period. Globally, the livestock sector alone accounts for 14.5 percent of all human-related greenhouse gas emissions. And it’s not just the methane from cow burps or manure that contributes to animal agriculture’s carbon footprint, it’s the fossil fuels required to ship, process, package, and refrigerate the meat as well."
Pressures are not falling in any significant manner in the Northern Gulf but we are seeing some steady winds in the 11 knot range to the West of Tampa Bay:

COMPS (University of South Florida)
Location: 27.504N 83.741W
Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 16:30:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (250°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Air Temperature: 67.5 F
Water Temperature: 70.3 F
View Details Opens in new window - View History Opens in new window

Quoting 217. Patrap:

There in lies the true rub.

Normal' is a fast fading memory..



Also there really isn't a such thing as normal in California, rare is the "average" water year. Normal for CA is a few dry years balanced by a very wet year.
Note how infrequent it is for the precip to be at the red line average.




Quoting 228. no1der:

"Earlier this week, Barbara Henricks, Germany’s environment minister, announced that the government would be instituting a ban on meat at official functions, citing the environmental burden of meat production as the reason for the ban. ...

Hard to imagine her US colleague Scott Pruitt following her lead, lol.
Look at some of these 72 hour snowfall totals in the Sierra's.........Holy Moly! Almost 6 feet at a few locations!

Link
Quoting 230. civEngineer:


Also there really isn't a such thing as normal in California, rare is the "average" water year. Normal for CA is a few dry years balanced by a very wet year.
Note how infrequent it is for the precip to be at the red line average.







It's more than just a locale's average water year, I mean there's a bunch of different indicators like "Degree Days" and other measures that can tell a better story (as a whole) than just that one indicator. How climate impacts our ecosystem is important. We depend on predictability for farming, other resource management etc.
Quoting 223. Xandra:

From The New York Times:

The Pruitt Emails: E.P.A. Chief Was Arm in Arm With Industry


Scott Pruitt, administrator of the E.P.A., at the agency’s headquarters in Washington on Tuesday. Credit Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images

WASHINGTON — During his tenure as attorney general of Oklahoma, Scott Pruitt, now the Environmental Protection Agency administrator, closely coordinated with major oil and gas producers, electric utilities and political groups with ties to the libertarian billionaire brothers Charles G. and David H. Koch to roll back environmental regulations, according to over 6,000 pages of emails made public on Wednesday.

The publication of the correspondence comes just days after Mr. Pruitt was sworn in to run the E.P.A., which is charged with reining in pollution and regulating public health.

“Thank you to your respective bosses and all they are doing to push back against President Obama’s EPA and its axis with liberal environmental groups to increase energy costs for Oklahomans and American families across the states,” said one email sent to Mr. Pruitt and an Oklahoma congressman in August 2013 by Matt Ball, an executive at Americans for Prosperity. That nonprofit group is funded in part by the Kochs, the Kansas business executives who spent much of the last decade combating federal regulations, particularly in the energy sector. “You both work for true champions of freedom and liberty!” the note said.

[...]

An Oklahoma judge ordered the release of the emails in response to a lawsuit by the Center for Media and Democracy, a liberal watchdog group. Many of the emails are copies of documents previously provided in 2014 to The New York Times, which examined Mr. Pruitt’s interaction with energy industry players that his office also helps regulate.

The companies provided him draft letters to send to federal regulators in an attempt to block federal regulations intended to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas wells, ozone air pollution, and chemicals used in fracking, the email correspondence shows.

They held secret meetings to discuss more comprehensive ways to combat the Obama administration’s environmental agenda, and the companies and organizations they funded repeatedly praised Mr. Pruitt and his staff for the assistance he provided in their campaign.

The correspondence points to the tension emerging as Mr. Pruitt is now charged with regulating many of the same companies with which he coordinated closely in his previous position. As attorney general of Oklahoma, Mr. Pruitt took part in 14 lawsuits against major E.P.A. environmental rules, often in coordination with energy companies such as Devon Energy, an Oklahoma oil and gas producer, and American Electric Power, an Ohio-based electric utility.

Click here to read full article.


Anyone surprised about this?
On the radar loops, where yesterday the low was forecast to move South of Mobile on the way toward the Central Florida coast, the low is starting to jog back to the NW towards Mobile...........It might have been overdeveloped by the model runs but this means some more extended rain for Florida when the forecast was for it to clear away from Florida, on the Atlantic side, by Thursday.

Quoting 234. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Anyone surprised about this?


Not at all.

I think the only way to battle this is to keep the science going and then make consumer decisions that doesn't benefit his puppet string masters.
From Forbes:

What Your TV Meteorologist Likely Thinks Of Climate Change

Marshall Shepherd , CONTRIBUTOR

[...]

There is a false assumption that someone that is an expert in meteorology is also an expert in climatology. In my observation of (and experience with) meteorology curricula in universities, it is very rigorous in meteorology, physics, and advanced math as it should be. However, many of the best programs really only require bachelor level graduates to take an introductory climatology course. That is not enough. Climatology should basically be a separate major in itself. My 3 degrees are also in meteorology so I do not claim to be a climatology expert either, however, I am the director of the University of Georgia's Atmospheric Sciences program. In our curriculum, we have the full suite of meteorology courses but also offer courses that expose our students to physical climatology, applied climatology, climatology, global environmental change, paleoclimatology, radiative transfer, multivariate statistics, climate modeling and marine sciences.

For example, I commonly hear the argument about lack of trust of climate models since there is variability or uncertainty in the weather models every day. That statement suggests a bit of confusion about differences between weather models and climate models. By the way, there is a good discussion of the differences at this link.

My friend and colleague, Chief Meteorologist Greg Fishel of WRAL in Raleigh, North Carolina, is one of the best in the business. He used to be a climate skeptic. He told me,

I changed my position on climate change not because of some new discovery in the research arena, but instead due to a realization that my thinking process was flawed. A scientist can never allow ideology or politics to compromise the scientific method. I did that for 30 years and regret it more than I can express. When I speak to groups now, I speak about healthy and objective ways of thinking, and encourage everyone to have a willingness to prove themselves wrong, as opposed to engaging in confirmation bias.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 223. Xandra:

From The New York Times:

The Pruitt Emails: E.P.A. Chief Was Arm in Arm With Industry


Scott Pruitt, administrator of the E.P.A., at the agency’s headquarters in Washington on Tuesday. Credit Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images

WASHINGTON — During his tenure as attorney general of Oklahoma, Scott Pruitt, now the Environmental Protection Agency administrator, closely coordinated with major oil and gas producers, electric utilities and political groups with ties to the libertarian billionaire brothers Charles G. and David H. Koch to roll back environmental regulations, according to over 6,000 pages of emails made public on Wednesday.

The publication of the correspondence comes just days after Mr. Pruitt was sworn in to run the E.P.A., which is charged with reining in pollution and regulating public health.

“Thank you to your respective bosses and all they are doing to push back against President Obama’s EPA and its axis with liberal environmental groups to increase energy costs for Oklahomans and American families across the states,” said one email sent to Mr. Pruitt and an Oklahoma congressman in August 2013 by Matt Ball, an executive at Americans for Prosperity. That nonprofit group is funded in part by the Kochs, the Kansas business executives who spent much of the last decade combating federal regulations, particularly in the energy sector. “You both work for true champions of freedom and liberty!” the note said.

[...]

An Oklahoma judge ordered the release of the emails in response to a lawsuit by the Center for Media and Democracy, a liberal watchdog group. Many of the emails are copies of documents previously provided in 2014 to The New York Times, which examined Mr. Pruitt’s interaction with energy industry players that his office also helps regulate.

The companies provided him draft letters to send to federal regulators in an attempt to block federal regulations intended to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas wells, ozone air pollution, and chemicals used in fracking, the email correspondence shows.

They held secret meetings to discuss more comprehensive ways to combat the Obama administration’s environmental agenda, and the companies and organizations they funded repeatedly praised Mr. Pruitt and his staff for the assistance he provided in their campaign.

The correspondence points to the tension emerging as Mr. Pruitt is now charged with regulating many of the same companies with which he coordinated closely in his previous position. As attorney general of Oklahoma, Mr. Pruitt took part in 14 lawsuits against major E.P.A. environmental rules, often in coordination with energy companies such as Devon Energy, an Oklahoma oil and gas producer, and American Electric Power, an Ohio-based electric utility.

Click here to read full article.


The fox is now in charge of security for the henhouse.

If anyone needs me, I'll be conducting a seance to reanimate Teddy Roosevelt.
And here is the closet buoy to the coc which is about due South of Panama City; steady at 11 knots and water temps of 70.5 F: close but no cigar in terms of a warm cored tropical disturbance.

NDBC
Location:28.739N 86.006W
Date:Wed, 22 Feb 2017 16:50:00 UTC
Winds:11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height:3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period:6 sec
Average Wave Period:4.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction:WSW (241)
Atmospheric Pressure:29.72 in and rising
Air Temperature:67.5 F
Dew Point:58.8 F
Water Temperature:70.5 F
Quoting 236. CraigsIsland:



Not at all.

I think the only way to battle this is to keep the science going and then make consumer decisions that doesn't benefit his puppet string masters.


oh wait.
1. we could ask our cities, counties and states to divest from banks who support oil industry practices. (see Seattle/Wells Fargo)

2. some other non-violent civil disobedience. can't think of anything yet. West Coast AM = need coffee.
Quoting 233. CraigsIsland:



It's more than just a locale's average water year, I mean there's a bunch of different indicators like "Degree Days" and other measures that can tell a better story (as a whole) than just that one indicator. How climate impacts our ecosystem is important. We depend on predictability for farming, other resource management etc.


True story there, in the last couple years we have had very few frost days and even fewer below freezing and it is causing loss of production in many of the stone fruit and pistachios that need a certain number of cold hours during dormancy to be productive the following year. Couple year ago my apple tree started budding new leaves in the spring and still had green leaves from the previous year.

That being said the almonds are in full bloom right now and appear to be in good shape. For those who have never experienced it living in an area surrounded by almonds smells like a fresh opened honey jar when they bloom :)
Quoting 238. schistkicker:



The fox is now in charge of security for the henhouse.

If anyone needs me, I'll be conducting a seance to reanimate Teddy Roosevelt.


Bully Ol' Man, just bully !..

Quoting 239. weathermanwannabe:

And here is the closet buoy to the coc which is about due South of Panama City; steady at 11 knots and water temps of 70.5 F: close but no cigar in terms of a warm cored tropical disturbance.

NDBC
Location:28.739N 86.006W
Date:Wed, 22 Feb 2017 16:50:00 UTC
Winds:11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height:3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period:6 sec
Average Wave Period:4.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction:WSW (241)
Atmospheric Pressure:29.72 in and rising
Air Temperature:67.5 F
Dew Point:58.8 F
Water Temperature:70.5 F


Miami Mesoscale Analysis - MSLP indicating a low off of Tampa.





Note: Image updates about every hour
forecaster scott i was doubting you this morning but your forecast came to fruition. heavy rain for hours now e cen florida
From the NASA LIVE PC.

We have found the first pale blue dot among 7 around Proxima B. A Companion Dwarf star in the Alpha Centauri System,,,our closest Star neighbor.

Stunning, fabulous, they are, One is the same size of Earth...in the goldilocks zone.

The day has come.
Quoting 211. Xandra:

The blog (?) swallowed my comment #202 so here it comes again.

From CSI:

From Chemtrails to CSICon: An Interview with Mick West.

[...]

Susan Gerbic: So, Mick. It’s nice to catch up with you. This website you run, Metabunk, sounds right up the skeptic alley. Tell me about that site.

Mick West: Metabunk is a skeptical forum, where we do investigations into a wide range of phenomena from conspiracy theories to UFOs. We also discuss best practices for communicating the results of an investigation (the debunking) and how to help people get out of the “rabbit hole” of conspiratorial thinking. It grew out of my old blog Contrail Science, which was about chemtrails. Metabunk still has a strong focus on the chemtrail theory.

Gerbic: Chemtrails? Doesn’t everyone know they don’t exist and what they see in the sky are contrails? And the few people who still believe that the government is poisoning us aren’t likely to listen to reason, right? Note: I just looked at the pageview stats for the Chemtrails conspiracy theories Wikipedia page, and 99,560 people visited it in the last thirty days. I suppose I’m living in a bubble.

West: Chemtrails is a surprisingly popular theory; it’s right up there with things like the 9/11 conspiracy theories. It all stems from a fundamental distrust of science and authority. You are always going to get a percentage of people who are true believers. My goal is to minimize that as much as possible, stop people falling for it, and help them get out as easily as possible.

Gerbic: I understand that you are also a pilot. Do you know pilots who believe in this conspiracy theory?

West: I only flew small, single engine planes, which isn’t that hard. I’d not be surprised if some single-engine pilots fell for it. But I’d be very surprised if there were any commercial pilots who believe in it. Most of them have heard of it and find the idea ridiculous and sad. Some of them even get harassed about it, as people think they are part of the plot because their planes leave contrails.

[...]

Gerbic: Tell me about some of your favorite parts of CSICon? Favorite lectures?

West: [...] Something I think would be great to address at CSICon is the function of skepticism in social media—and the role of new media in general. There’s a real danger in falling into a bubble by being overly attached to a traditional set of media (print, blogs, newsletters) that is becoming increasing irrelevant. Skepticism needs to evolve with the understanding that information (and disinformation) is now propagated by Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, etc. Understanding how this works and how we can best use those channels of communication is crucial to keeping skepticism relevant and effective.

[...]

Gerbic: Any last thoughts, Mick?

West: I think that events such as CSICon are becoming more and more important, especially with the election of a president who has what seem to be anti-science leanings. Skeptics are fairly politically diverse, but we are united in our opposition to fake science, alternative facts, charlatans, and bunk. CSICon is part of the solution—a place where we can recharge our skeptical batteries and form and renew connections with other skeptics to try to turn back the tide.

[...]

Click here to read full interview


If you truly want to be honest on this subject try researching Solar radiation management or Geoengineering. In 1967, the CIA Created the Label "Conspiracy Theorists" ... to Attack Anyone Who Challenges the "Official" Narrative.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/1967-he- cia-created-phrase-conspiracy-theorists-and-ways-a ttack-anyone-who-challenge
Quoting 245. Patrap:

From the NASA LIVE PC.

We have found the first pale blue dot among 7 around Proxima B. A Companion Dwarf star in the Alpha Centauri System,,,our closest Star neighbor.

Stunning, fabulous, they are, One is the same size of Earth...in the goldilocks zone.

The day has come.


isnt it a bit early to call it a pale blue dot? i'm very excited too, but there's no confirmation that water exists on these planets..unless i missed something..
From Nature:

These seven alien worlds could help explain how planets form

The Earth-sized astronomical bounty circles a dim star that flew under the radar of exoplanet researchers.


NASA/JPL-Caltech. An artist's illustration of what TRAPPIST-1's seven planets might look like.

Seven alien, Earth-sized worlds bask in the cool, red light of their parent star. The planetary menagerie exists around a star overlooked by other exoplanet hunters, although it is just 12 parsecs (39 light years) from Earth.

Astronomers have found other seven-planet systems before, but this is the first to have so many Earth-sized worlds. All of them orbit at the right distance to possibly have liquid water somewhere on their surfaces.

“To have this system of seven is really incredible,” says Elisa Quintana, an astrophysicist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. “You can imagine how many nearby stars might harbour lots and lots of planets.”

Some of the planets were announced last year, but the authors debuted five newfound ones in a paper published on 22 February in Nature1. Because the system is so close to Earth, astronomers can study the planets’ atmospheres relatively easily. That could reveal an astonishing diversity of worlds, ranging in composition from rocky to icy.

“This system is going to be one of the best laboratories we have for understanding the evolution of small planets,” says Zachory Berta-Thompson, an astronomer at the University of Colorado Boulder.

Click here to read more.

More information:

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-telescope -reveals-largest-batch-of-earth-size-habitable-zon e-planets-around

Nature doi:10.1038/nature.2017.21512
Levi Cowan‏@TropicalTidbits 4 hhace 4 horas
Más
A friendly reminder that daily ENSO changes almost never persist beyond that timescale. What goes up comes down within longer timescales.
Quoting 246. frank727:



If you truly want to be honest on this subject try researching Solar radiation management or Geoengineering. In 1967, the CIA Created the Label "Conspiracy Theorists" ... to Attack Anyone Who Challenges the "Official" Narrative.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/1967-he- cia-created-phrase-conspiracy-theorists-and-ways-a ttack-anyone-who-challenge
#246

A zerohedge citation, what didn't Infowars have anything?
Chicago reached 61 as of noon CST. That makes this the sixth consecutive day there to reach 60 or higher, the first time that's happened since recordkeeping began in 1871 not just in the month of February, but in all of meteorological winter. The average high over the past five days has been 68.6F.

Rockford, Illinois, not too far west of Chicago, had previously only seen three consecutive winter days at or above 60; today is the sixth there, as well. And Rockford is at 64 already, meaning that this week's warm spell will have accounted for five of that city's ten warmest winter days on record, and six of its 12 warmest.
Quoting 230. civEngineer:


Also there really isn't a such thing as normal in California, rare is the "average" water year. Normal for CA is a few dry years balanced by a very wet year.
Note how infrequent it is for the precip to be at the red line average.







That's true everywhere though. Average yearly rainfall is 59.23 here in Tallahassee, but we've had years as wet as 104.18 in 1964, and the driest year on record here is 30.98 in 1954. Though most years rainfall is between 50 and 70 inches.
Only 100 days until....

Quoting 252. Neapolitan:

Chicago reached 61 as of noon CST. That makes this the sixth consecutive day there to reach 60 or higher, the first time that's happened since recordkeeping began in 1871. And not just in the month of February, but in all of meteorological winter. The average high over the past five days has been 68.6F.

Rockford, Illinois, not too far west of Chicago, had previously only seen three consecutive winter days at or above 60; today is the sixth there, as well. And Rockford is at 64 already, meaning that this week's warm spell will have accounted for five of that city's ten warmest winter days on record, and six of its 12 warmest.

Another pile of stats on the fire.
Quoting 247. earthisanocean:



isnt it a bit early to call it a pale blue dot? i'm very excited too, but there's no confirmation that water exists on these planets..unless i missed something..

It rains rubies the size of Texan hail on some planets, and others naturally have a crust of this. Of course all are sterile.
Quoting 226. barbamz:

Addition to comment #218
Storm Doris set to bring winter's worst weather to UK as warnings extended
More snow forecast for Scotland as high wind warning extended to almost all of England, Wales and Northern Ireland
The Guardian, Wednesday 22 February 2017 14.20 GMT
[...] Thursday - Doris Day, as it has been nicknamed - is likely to see widespread damage to buildings, interruption to power supplies and extensive travel problems. The Met Office is warning of injury from flying debris such as tree branches and roof tiles.
Doris, the fourth named storm of the season, is likely to be worst storm of winter so far, according to the BBC's forecaster Chris Fawkes. "It is going to explosively deepen in the next 24 hours ... probably the worst storm of the winter," he said. ...


"Explosive cyclogenesis":
UK braces for Storm Doris
BBC weather video (Chris Fawkes), 22nd February 2017 Last updated at 13:38

Doris? Thomas.
We got one for the Netherlands. Tomorrow as of late afternoon/early evening probable 'sting jet' with some storm force/50 kts winds associated, gusts 70+ kts in coastal areas and 60+ going rather far inland. We will have some traffic trouble (all sectors, don't underestimate 'some' re this country) and a moderate to bad winter storm's debet to insurers.
Quoting 257. cRRKampen:


It rains rubies the size of Texan hail on some planets, and others naturally have a crust of this. Of course all are sterile.

Hey, cRRKampen: tomorrow you'll get a stormy visit from Doris-Thomas at your place in the Netherlands, no? Best wishes!

For all those who like to follow the upcoming textbook bombogenesis of Doris-Thomas off the coast of Ireland:
Here is a nice German site with - if you like - animated satellite pics:
Link to the current animation .

Link to the site for updates: Link

Nice explanation of the current developments (with maps and loops) at netweather.tv
Excerpt (that's happening right now):
A low forms on the wave Wednesday PM, as a shortwave upper trough of cold air and dry air intrusion behind it descending from the lower stratosphere originating from the Canadian arctic moves out across the N Atlantic and engages the wave.
Where the upper level dry air intrusion, characterised strong potential vorticity, overruns the baroclinic zone and warm conveyor (frontal boundary) it induces cyclonic circulation, thus a low deepens along the frontal boundary in the wave. The low then undergoes rapid cyclogenesis as it's pushed by the shortwave on to the cold (north) side of the polar front jet stream and also comes under the developmental 'left-exit' of the jet steam - an area where diverging winds aloft cause convergence at the surface and pressure to fall.



Watch the pressure falling west of Ireland (click to enlarge). The secondary low of Doris-Thomas is clearly visible now.
Woo! Geek out! Several stations in Wisconsin are now equal to the highest temperature ever recorded for the month of February for our state, 68:
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/ getForecast?query=wi

And its only 1 PM! Sorry. Getting excited. Weather nerdyness alert.
Quoting 258. Patrap:



Seems like that front is really slow moving. How long ago was it in TX?
Quoting 259. cRRKampen:


Doris? Thomas.
We got one for the Netherlands. Tomorrow as of late afternoon/early evening probable 'sting jet' with some storm force/50 kts winds associated, gusts 70 kts in coastal areas and 60 going rather far inland. We will have some traffic trouble (all sectors, don't underestimate 'some' re this country) and a moderate to bad winter storm's debet to insurers.

Yes, we already had our "Doris"-storm earlier this winter. UK is a bit late, lol.


Winds tomorrow afternoon at the coast of the Netherlands (WRF model). Huh!
Quoting 260. barbamz:


Hey, cRRKampen: tomorrow you'll get a stormy visit from Doris-Thomas at your place in the Netherlands, no? Best wishes!
[..]


Same to you, some of this will become a nuisance for Niedersachsen too but you should have just enough weather to shake the smog highs of most of last winter off a bit..
Meantime, our posts crossed, lol
Quoting 263. barbamz:


Yes, we already had our "Doris"-storm earlier this winter. UK is a bit late, lol.

Winds tomorrow afternoon at the coast of the Netherlands (WRF model). Huh!
That looks like the full whip, yes, and me in Gouda is target. I'll be enjoying this. Though some will very thoroughly not, I fear, as it happens with these classic things.

Soooo, the Brexit already has consequences, they're running totally backward on the naming lists...
Quoting 264. cRRKampen:

Meantime, our posts crossed, lol

They did, lol. As our fingers are (crossed).
Here we can get the latest forecast in high resolution (unfortunately it's not allowed to post the pics of the maps. But we are free to have a look): Link: Gusts tomorrow 4pm local time

Edit: And this is the forecast of winds for the Manchester-Liverpool area earlier that day (boy, no wonder they are nervous): Link
Quoting 225. weathermanwannabe:

While it is still winter, and the low in the North Gulf is not warm cored (yet), we have seen this many times in the past in the Eastern Gulf. A sheared low or tropical storm in that region where all the convection is blown off and displaced to the East over the Peninsula of Florida; same MO





There was a system in this area, a little bit farther south, in February 2012 that nearly developed into a subtropical storm.
Quoting 246. frank727:



If you truly want to be honest on this subject try researching Solar radiation management or Geoengineering. In 1967, the CIA Created the Label "Conspiracy Theorists" ... to Attack Anyone Who Challenges the "Official" Narrative.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-23/1967-he- cia-created-phrase-conspiracy-theorists-and-ways-a ttack-anyone-who-challenge

Guess which people that I consider most reliable... the people at Zero Hedge or the fellows of CSI?

Check this list of CSI fellows

About the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry [CSI] :

The mission of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry is to promote scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims. To carry out these objectives the Committee:

Maintains a network of people interested in critically examining paranormal, fringe science, and other claims, and in contributing to consumer education

Prepares bibliographies of published materials that carefully examine such claims

Encourages research by objective and impartial inquiry in areas where it is needed

Convenes conferences and meetings

Publishes articles that examine claims of the paranormal

Does not reject claims on a priori grounds, antecedent to inquiry, but examines them objectively and carefully

The Committee is a program of the Center for Inquiry, a nonprofit educational organization. The Committee was launched in 1976. The Skeptical Inquirer is its official journal.

Some of the founding members of CSI include scientists, academics, and science writers such as Carl Sagan, Isaac Asimov, Philip Klass, Paul Kurtz, Ray Hyman, James Randi, Martin Gardner, Sidney Hook, and others.

CSI, encourages careful, rational, critical examination of unusual claims. One of the best guides is a short piece by Ray Hyman, a professor of psychology at the University of Oregon, titled “Proper Criticismk”.
Quoting 253. Jedkins01:



That's true everywhere though. Average yearly rainfall is 59.23 here in Tallahassee, but we've had years as wet as 104.18 in 1964, and the driest year on record here is 30.98 in 1954. Though most years rainfall is between 50 and 70 inches.

In California the annual variation is amplified... our average dry year is typically in the ball park of 50% of our average where your driest year ever is 50% of your average. Also, where your wettest year is around 3.5 times your driest year. Our wettest years are more than 10 times our driest years.
Quoting 266. barbamz:


They did, lol. As our fingers are (crossed).
Here we can get the latest forecast in high resolution (unfortunately it's not allowed to post the pics of the maps. But we are free to have a look): Link: Gusts tomorrow 4pm local time

That stuff needs some careful interpretation. Big problem re sea vs land values of max winds. My result confirms that fingers need to be crossed because of a certain splotch centre of country around 17:00-18:00.
However I've seen some speculations of Kachelmann earlier today (on www.weerwoord.be, NL/B) willing 170 kph gusts and I do not buy that.
Quoting 257. cRRKampen:


It rains rubies the size of Texan hail on some planets, and others naturally have a crust of this. Of course all are sterile.
It's a cool (temperature, heh) star with 3 planets definitely in the liquid surface water zone and the other 4 possibly. That should at least rule out ruby rain, ruby rain, eh?

NASA Telescope Reveals Record-Breaking Exoplanet Discovery | NASA

EDIT: Fixed link.
Quoting 270. cRRKampen:
That stuff needs some careful interpretation. Big problem re sea vs land values of max winds. My result confirms that fingers need to be crossed because of a certain splotch centre of country around 17:00-18:00.
However I've seen some speculations of Kachelmann earlier today (on www.weerwoord.be, NL/B) willing 170 kph gusts and I do not buy that.

Hope you are right. Please tell us what it's like near Rotterdam (right?) tomorrow.
BTW: Tomorrow it's the first day of street carnival in certain regions of Germany with a lot of celebrating folks out in the open, f.e. in the northwestern part of Germany around Cologne which should see some very heavy gusts in the evening, too. Last year a windstorm let authorities cancel our big parades on (now once again upcoming) Rose Monday. At least at this date the cheering masses should be fine this year and enjoy spring like temperatures.
273. elioe
Here, snow has blown horizontally throughout the day, thanks to "Stefan". Pressure 973 mbar and falling. Maximum gust so far 17 m/s. Gladly I don't have to spend time outdoors. According to the artist at NASA/JPL-Caltech, even TRAPPIST-1 f gets more vertical snowfall near its terminator. Perhaps I should move there?


Wisconsin has crushed it. The new record high temperature for Wisconsin for the month of February is at least 70.

https://www.wunderground.com/US/WI/Milwaukee.html

Quoting 271. LowerCal:

It's a cool (temperature, heh) star with 3 planets definitely in the liquid surface water zone and the other 4 possibly. That should at least rule out ruby rain, ruby rain, eh?

NASA Telescope Reveals Record-Breaking Exoplanet Discovery | NASA

That was just an example to give some scope of the universe out there. In fact, the rubies remain hypothetical, though supported with, I'd say, sufficient physics.
Also there are very likely already ways to determine that there's no crust of lapis luzali covered with a thin methane atmosphere out there on those seven (7, I like coincidences) planets.

I will tune in when 'Wuthering Heights' of Kate Bush was, I mean is, number one in the charts. We could actually relive those wonderful minutes of 1978 when NASA transmits a radio broadcast from some place out there. Because the following is the truth, the scientific truth:

The statements:
1. There must be extraterrestrial life
and
2. There must be exact copies of earth, up to all thoughts thought by men, all runs ran by ants and hares, all influenza virus mutations et cetera -
are equivalent.
Quoting 272. barbamz:


Hope you are right. Please tell us what it's like near Rotterdam (right?) tomorrow.
BTW: Tomorrow it's the first day of street carnival in certain regions of Germany with a lot of celebrating folks out in the open, f.e. in the northwestern part of Germany around Cologne which should see some very heavy gusts in the evening, too. Last year a windstorm let authorities cancel our big parades on (now once again upcoming) Rose Monday. At least at this date the cheering masses should be fine this year and enjoy spring like temperatures.

Will do.
Yikes, I forgot about carnival, thanks.
Gouda, about 25 km ENE from Rotterdam. From my office tomorrow I'll have The Perfect View on the highway at a complex point (somehow I got ashamedly privileged perhaps). I will know everything. Unless I have to flee when the floor to ceiling windows that corner my desk go.
In southwest Indiana today it is 71F/Sunny. Driving earlier with windows down. This is the third day with 70+ temperatures and two more forecast. Traditionally, in Indiana, we are happy to get a day in mid-upper 40s this time of year. I'm starting to feel a little fear as other changes may not be as pleasant as 70F in last of February. This week is the first time I've really thought/felt. This isn't right.
Quoting 279. hackagain:

In southwest Indiana today it is 71F/Sunny. Driving earlier with windows down. This is the third day with 70+ temperatures and two more forecast. Traditionally, in Indiana, we are happy to get a day in mid-upper 40s this time of year. I'm starting to feel a little fear as other changes may not be as pleasant as 70F in last of February. This week is the first time I've really thought/felt. This isn't right.

This. A report like this. Still gets me.
Quoting 280. cRRKampen:

This. A report like this. Still gets me.


Again a lot of monthly records are tied or broken (purple spots; saved current loop). Source.
Quoting 276. cRRKampen:

Gouda, about 25 km ENE from Rotterdam. From my office tomorrow I'll have The Perfect View on the highway at a complex point (somehow I got ashamedly privileged perhaps). I will know everything. Unless I have to flee when the floor to ceiling windows that corner my desk go.

Thanks and good luck! Gouda is easy to remember due to the tasty and renowned cheese I fancy :-) Wiki about Gouda.
Quoting 279. hackagain:

In southwest Indiana today it is 71F/Sunny. Driving earlier with windows down. This is the third day with 70+ temperatures and two more forecast. Traditionally, in Indiana, we are happy to get a day in mid-upper 40s this time of year. I'm starting to feel a little fear as other changes may not be as pleasant as 70F in last of February. This week is the first time I've really thought/felt. This isn't right.


That feeling was really strong in late March 2012 when I drove through Western PA to Jamestown NY for a hockey tournament. It was near 80F in a place that's normally in the low 40s that time of year and often much colder. Vegetation was five weeks advanced with daffodils, cherry blossoms (not apple.. not that warm!) and general budding and some greening of local trees. The following night, after a day in the rainy 60s, it was still in the 50s and frogs were all over the road.. in MARCH in western NY!. Cool air slid in the following day and it was in the low 40s when I left Sunday March 24.

Departures from normal were higher in the midwest and I remember gaping at a Missouri forcast of hot, near 90 with lows in the low 60s for two or three days, I think March 26-28 or so (DC got a much modified arctic outbreak
3/26-27 before warmth returned)

But what really struck me was how warm it was in Jamestown and in Northwest PA, places that are usually still wintry in late March
Quoting 271. LowerCal:

It's a cool (temperature, heh) star with 3 planets definitely in the liquid surface water zone and the other 4 possibly. That should at least rule out ruby rain, ruby rain, eh?

NASA Telescope Reveals Record-Breaking Exoplanet Discovery | NASA



Quoting 283. georgevandenberghe:



That feeling was really strong in late March 2012 when I drove through Western PA to Jamestown NY for a hockey tournament. It was near 80F in a place that's normally in the low 40s that time of year and often much colder. Vegetation was five weeks advanced with daffodils, cherry blossoms (not apple.. not that warm!) and general budding and some greening of local trees. The following night, after a day in the rainy 60s, it was still in the 50s and frogs were all over the road.. in MARCH in western NY!. Cool air slid in the following day and it was in the low 40s when I left Sunday March 24.

Departures from normal were higher in the midwest and I remember gaping at a Missouri forcast of hot, near 90 with lows in the low 60s for two or three days, I think March 26-28 or so (DC got a much modified arctic outbreak
3/26-27 before warmth returned)

But what really struck me was how warm it was in Jamestown and in Northwest PA, places that are usually still wintry in late March



I went out to prune the backyard apple tree a few days ago and was surprised that the buds are as far along as they are. Hard to explain, really, as December and January were mighty cold, and it hasn't been blazingly warm in February... though it has been warm enough to melt much of the record snow we got in the two cold months.
Quoting 275. cRRKampen:

.... Also there are very likely already ways to determine that there's no crust of lapis luzali covered with a thin methane atmosphere out there ....

I fixed the link in 271.
NASA Telescope Reveals Record-Breaking Exoplanet Discovery | NASA
....

Spitzer, Hubble, and Kepler will help astronomers plan for follow-up studies using NASA's upcoming James Webb Space Telescope, launching in 2018. With much greater sensitivity, Webb will be able to detect the chemical fingerprints of water, methane, oxygen, ozone, and other components of a planet's atmosphere. Webb also will analyze planets' temperatures and surface pressures – key factors in assessing their habitability.

....
Quoting 281. barbamz:



Again a lot of monthly records are tied or broken (purple spots; saved current loop). Source.

.. Glaucoma is not painless either I can tell you now.
Arctic Implosion.
For those bored of the coral.

But Thomas/Doris is rather normal, just linearly added with some tropopause height, moisture and T by average climate change trend, say. I'd guess a one in two to max five years gale. Incidentally, no discernible trend in bad gales across over a century in our parts, though that should change for the better re number and for the worse re incidents according to some models running fifty clicks slightly north of east from me.

The cheese of Gouda is one the things. Absolutely. It alone already makes life worth living.
Things in Gouda have been around per the Spanish occupation (we know what the Inquisition was) through the Golden Age and Empire. I trust this fortunate place will hold out against tomorrow's spring gale.
Quoting 286. MontanaZephyr:



I went out to prune the backyard apple tree a few days ago and was surprised that the buds are as far along as they are. Hard to explain, really, as December and January were mighty cold, and it hasn't been blazingly warm in February... though it has been warm enough to melt much of the record snow we got in the two cold months.

They might have timed in a measure for a couple of preceding years (three to ten, wild guess). I'm seeing the same kind of thing in the Netherlands. Biologists' matter, idk yet.
I was outside this morning in Tallahassee and the lower level cloud deck was moving in that "low" looking mode; the flow pattern has slowed down this afternoon and just starting to look like a regular cloudy day. Point being that the coc below Apalachicola has started "unwind" and to meander................It's best 12 hours are over but it will take a while for all the rain to squeeze out from over Florida..............



Quoting 286. MontanaZephyr:



I went out to prune the backyard apple tree a few days ago and was surprised that the buds are as far along as they are. Hard to explain, really, as December and January were mighty cold, and it hasn't been blazingly warm in February... though it has been warm enough to melt much of the record snow we got in the two cold months.

I was outside today as well just come in around 330 my time
got all garbage cleaned up washed down 7 dumpsters
wash back door area and used the blower
to blow all cig butts and stuff off the grassy area
along the backside of building
looks like spring now
tomorrow I do the front


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
339 PM EST WED FEB 22 2017

GAZ132-134-149>152-164-222130-
Pierce GA-Ware GA-Bacon GA-Atkinson GA-Coffee GA-Brantley GA-
Charlton GA-
339 PM EST WED FEB 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COFFEE...
SOUTHWESTERN PIERCE...EASTERN ATKINSON...SOUTHWESTERN BRANTLEY...
WARE...SOUTHWESTERN BACON AND NORTHERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EST...

At 338 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Race Pond, or 16 miles northwest of Folkston, moving northwest at 35
mph.

Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph can be expected along with possible minor
damage. Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation within this storm.
Tornadoes may develop with little or no advanced warning.

Locations impacted include...
Waycross, Blackshear, Pearson, Nicholls, Hickox, Boggy Bay, Pebble
Hill, Race Pond, Fort Mudge and Jamestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 8264 3117 8194 3091 8200 3084 8219
3110 8263 3118 8267 3118 8277 3129 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 128DEG 32KT 3102 8219

$$

HESS
Quoting 287. LowerCal:


I fixed the link in 271.
NASA Telescope Reveals Record-Breaking Exoplanet Discovery | NASA
....

Spitzer, Hubble, and Kepler will help astronomers plan for follow-up studies using NASA's upcoming James Webb Space Telescope, launching in 2018. With much greater sensitivity, Webb will be able to detect the chemical fingerprints of water, methane, oxygen, ozone, and other components of a planet's atmosphere. Webb also will analyze planets' temperatures and surface pressures – key factors in assessing their habitability.

....


To be very clear about this vis-a-vis some of my philosophy of science crude conclusions, all this is totally fascinating throughout. Columbus, Cook and Amundsen ain't experienced nothing yet even compared to what instruments are conveying to us.
I use a statistical argument to rule out extraterrestrial life (I am NOT a creationist). I propose some things that can happen in the entire universe are very improbable and may have happened or will happen never - or may have happened exactly once. Like pulling the jackpot from a lottery with numbered balls played 10exp100 times a second wherein you need to guess which hundred balls are thrown out sometime during the existence of the universe.
Presently we have exactly one occurence and virtually no clue how or where that came about. This proves the equivalence of statements below.
So I have staked very high on this research and discovery indeed. Actually I went all-in :)
Aww, development of the pesky Doris-Thomas storm is markedly improving. See below the onslaught of the dry and cold arctic streak (red colored in the airmass pic, with my green arrow) onto the moist conveyor belt. Guess the curling will soon begin.
This was the pic I've posted just a little earlier (link).
True eye candy for the fans of storm development but dangerous for those in the path of the developing storm!


Click to enlarge. Source.

Meanwhile in the south Spain gets a load of SAL from the Sahara. 999 has pointed it out earlier but their post was eaten by the Glory Hole of the blog. Here a pic from Wokingham weather with Spain in the upper part of the picture:

Plume of raised dust extending over Iberia. Source.
Quoting 282. barbamz:


Thanks and good luck! Gouda is easy to remember due to the tasty and renowned cheese I fancy :-) Wiki about Gouda.
Gouda has also been my favorite cheese for a long time, but I can no longer buy it where I have been buying cheese because the company that made it here (Costa Rica Gouda???) quit. I need a care package from Gouda -- the real geographic Gouda! :-) But not that weather, thanks.
Quoting 296. CaneFreeCR:

Gouda has also been my favorite cheese for a long time, but I can no longer buy it where I have been buying cheese because the company that made it here (Costa Rica Gouda???) quit. I need a care package from Gouda -- the real geographic Gouda! :-) But not that weather, thanks.

Costa Rica, wot, it is not hurricane season?
I have to admit the other thing, not the weather, looks like rather feasible, at least from my perspective.
Milwaukee and Janesville WI have both reached 72°F.
Lisa Tropical Cyclone Report is out.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL132016_Lisa.pd f
As expected, Hurricane Matthew is going to be last to come out.
I cannot speak for the rest of the US but this Winter is pretty much over for Florida and the Southern Gulf tier; I am already planning my first wade fishing trip on Saturday morning with my Buds to my coastal hot spot near Apalachicola. I need average water temps there of 65F and above before the fish starting moving through (and this lasts through October) and we do not usually get there until late-March/early-April every year...........It hit 65 yesterday morning............Off to Bass Pro Shop on Friday for a new reel for the 2017 season.
Evacuation, Exodus and Return: A Personal Encounter With Hurricane Katrina
By: Portlight , 1:17 PM CST on February 22, 2017


This is the first part of a four-part series focusing on Global Climate Change and its impact on human lives and the increasing number of climate change refugees society will have to deal with. We will discuss the impact of Hurricane Katrina along the Northern Gulf Coast as it affected Hundreds of thousands of American lives in Louisiana and Mississippi directly, and millions of others indirectly. All together, 1.36 million people applied to FEMA for disaster assistance in the wake of Katrina.

We find ourselves this day and tomorrow in a warming world. A world where the human influence on the Natural World is 170 times more than what Nature slowly does over thousands of years. In the Natural World before fossil fuel burning we were warming globally by 0.01°C per century. As this recent new research has shown, greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans over the past 45 years, on the other hand, “have increased the rate of temperature rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius per century, dwarfing the natural background rate."

The record setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a clear signal to this author that a new norm has been reached. So we begin our discussion of what I and others witnessed, experienced and learned from the Storm that caused the largest displacement of Americans since the Great Dust Bowl of the 1930s.


Quoting 297. cRRKampen:


Costa Rica, wot, it is not hurricane season?
I have to admit the other thing, not the weather, looks like rather feasible, at least from my perspective.
Otto was the first hurricane to ever hit Costa Rica territory as a hurricane, in the records. We are "too far South", as the North border is just about 10 degrees N. Otto actually went ashore North of 10 degrees and then went straight West and crossed into Costa Rice in the Northwestern end.

I wonder if a cheese shipped (mailed?) from The Netherlands would be allowed in through Costa Rica customs, and whether it would survive. I carried a Serra cheese (Portugal's Serra da Estrela) and it made it OK undeclared in my checked luggage, but the mails? Don't know.
Eric Holthaus: "A brave EPA employee securely contacted me with a heartfelt message for all Americans."

From Mother Jones:

"We Will Never Stop": An EPA Employee Blasts the Trump Administration

“What type of nation are we?"


Greenpeace activists unfurl a banner protesting the Trump administration. Ken Cedeno/ZUMA

[...]

Shortly after the inauguration, a career EPA employee contacted me through a secure chat program and began to express profound concern over the threat now posed to their life's work. What follows is a heartfelt essay that this official—who requested anonymity out of fear of retribution by the administration—wrote shortly after Pruitt's confirmation last week:

[...]

What type of nation are we when we allow our leaders to sign into law a rule that makes it EASIER for mining companies to pollute local waterways? These same politicians will try to convince their voters that making it easier to pollute local streams is somehow good for them. Communities in West Virginia, Indiana, and Alabama with sky-high rates of cancer due to industry pollution shouldn't be presented with the false choice of accepting even more poison in their local environment or having a job. No one should be told that they have to put up with cancer-causing poison in their water, air, and land. It's shameful, and it's wrong.

[...]

2015 was the deadliest year on record for people working to defend and protect the environment. Let that sink in. One hundred and eighty-five human beings were killed around the world (more than three for every week of 2015) because they dedicated their lives to protecting human health from pollution and preserving the beautiful planet we all cherish. The same year, the Environmental Protection Agency welcomed Berta Cáceres, along with the other winners of the Goldman Environmental Prize, to honor them for being global leaders in defense of human rights and environmental protection. Less than one year later, Ms. Caceres would be murdered in her home in Honduras because she was brave enough to challenge mining and dam-building corporations. She defended human rights and the environment, and her life was taken because of it.

Here in the US, those of us who work to protect the environment and human health from corporate pollution are lucky enough that we do not live under the specter of murder. We are, however, acutely aware that the forces behind these heinous crimes against environmental activists abroad are the same forces that are working against us in the US today. And make no mistake: These forces are poised to grow even stronger.

If it is discovered in the next few weeks that the EPA Administrator does in fact have even closer ties to polluting corporate interests than we feared, what will the public do? Will the capture of EPA by corporate interests be swept up in all the other horrifying news of the day or week? Or will the public finally decide that it is not acceptable to allow EPA, the only agency with a mission dedicated to protecting the environment, to be systematically dismantled, allowing those at the top to further concentrate wealth and power among themselves? Despite the long odds we face, we will never stop working to protect every person's right to have a healthy place to live, work, and play. And if the new administrator casts me out of the job I love, I will not stop working toward the principles that have always animated my life. This is who I am, and that will never change. I stand in solidarity with brothers and sisters that work to protect human rights, human health, and the environment here in the US and all over the world. The struggle continues.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
About current UK warnings of storm "Doris":




Not far from truth, lol. Weather meeting art ...
Typical February.

A sobering thing Xandra.

The World is almost lost.

A most important moment in History.

We all lose here. There will be neaux winnah's.



I've been to Medellin--a spectacular city--so this Twitter image of a picturesque microburst from @severeweatherEU caught my eye:



Of course, it's also a reminder that Florida's summer's thunderstorms are only about three months away...
I hesitate to say winter is over here but it feels more like mid April in SC, and has felt that way for the last 2 weeks. My attic fan kicked on Monday afternoon. My centigrade grass is almost completely green. Water temps are 57-60F at the coast. Saturday looks like a good surf day with the low spinning off the coast. Expected highs are 81F in an offshore flow, water temps near 60F. I've experienced cooler beach days in July growing up in NJ. It is February. Ill be wearing a lightweight 3/2 and no gloves or booties. Remarkable.

Quoting 300. weathermanwannabe:

I cannot speak for the rest of the US but this Winter is pretty much over for Florida and the Southern Gulf tier; I am already planning my first wade fishing trip on Saturday morning with my Buds to my coastal hot spot near Apalachicola. I need average water temps there of 65F and above before the fish starting moving through (and this lasts through October) and we do not usually get there until late-March/early-April every year...........It hit 65 yesterday morning............Off to Bass Pro Shop on Friday for a new reel for the 2017 season.


Developing windstorm Doris-Thomas is now in the frame of the updating IR-loop. I leave you with that, wishing a good night to everyone!
UK-Twitter feed of storm Doris. (Let it open on a tap and news and jokes will keep on flowing in. For folks who won't use Twitter: don't refresh with F5, just click on the title when new numbers are showing up.)
72 for high in S C IL, gold crocus bloomed today for carnival, now if the purples follow before weekend will be in business:) They came up later than daffodil greens, think lack of cold weather may have influenced(?), usually they're first or at least close. Two more around 70s before bottom drops out to slightly below normal for the weekend (and windy) Glad having house party instead of going to Soulard for parade. Anyway, out to enjoy the day!

Pat that solar "flower" is cool, have to look into that!
Quoting 313. dabirds:

72 for high in S C IL, gold crocus bloomed today for carnival, now if the purples follow before weekend will be in business:) They came up later than daffodil greens, think lack of cold weather may have influenced(?), usually they're first or at least close. Two more around 70s before bottom drops out to slightly below normal for the weekend (and windy) Glad having house party instead of going to Soulard for parade. Anyway, out to enjoy the day!

Pat that solar "flower" is cool, have to look into that!


The Power of da flower could revolutinize a lot of new ideas as well.

Some Humans are actually working to better our collective good and future.

Others as you know, not so much.

Youth has to save us all.

The Dinosaurs in Power are a dying species, and serve no interest but their own.

Myself, I'm going on a long Vacation before the Season commences.





I am not looking forward to the end of year stats and records.

Arctic ice looks really bad. Greenland and Antarctica as well. Amplification of our weather system is going to be more evident and pervasive this year. I don't see how we don't top last few years of record keeping etc. (meaning, we're probably not going to get in a "cooling phase", pending stupid random things like volcanic eruptions/asteroids/nukes etc.)

Ecstatic about the new planet discovery today though. So we have that going. Keep on with the Science.

CFS showing El nino for April May but shows this?

CFS drunk!
Quoting 305. barbamz:

About current UK warnings of storm "Doris":




Not far from truth, lol.
As I was scrolling up I thought it was going to be Homer Simpson.
Quoting 317. LowerCal:

As I was scrolling up I thought it was going to be Homer Simpson.


or a duck :D
Quoting 318. CraigsIsland:

or a duck :D

Don't make fun of serious European art, you American parvenus, lol. :-) And now I'm seriously meeting my culturally saturated cushions, zzzzz.
Quoting 316. Gearsts:

CFS showing El nino for April May but shows this?

CFS drunk!

CFS seems to always show a Super El Niño.
321. Wyote
:Xandra #304
from the career EPA employee
"If it is discovered in the next few weeks that the EPA Administrator does in fact have even closer ties to polluting corporate interests than we feared, what will the public do? Will the capture of EPA by corporate interests be swept up in all the other horrifying news of the day or week? Or will the public finally decide that it is not acceptable to allow EPA, the only agency with a mission dedicated to protecting the environment, to be systematically dismantled, allowing those at the top to further concentrate wealth and power among themselves?..."

From WaPo today on Pruitt's released emails:
"The emails highlight an often-chummy relationship between Pruitt’s office and Devon Energy, a major oil and gas exploration and production company based in Oklahoma City. The correspondence makes clear that top officials at the company met often with Pruitt or people who worked for him. Devon representatives also helped draft — and redraft — letters for Pruitt to sign and send to federal officials in an effort to stave off new regulations.

“Any suggestions?” a deputy solicitor general in Pruitt’s office wrote to a Devon executive in early May 2013, including a draft of a letter the office was planning to send to the EPA regarding proposed regulations of methane emissions.

“Here you go,” the executive, Bill Whitsitt replied. “Please note that you could use just the red changes, or both red and blue (the latter being some further improvements from one of our experts) or none.”

“I sent the letter today,” the deputy solicitor general wrote the following day. “Thanks for all your help on this.” "
Link

Pruitt, who stated that regulations are written to "allow companies to plan", at his congressional interviews.

Ralph Nader: "another way to think of regulations are as protections" (paraphrased)

Quoting 306. Grothar:

Typical February.


its a heat wave winter style
Itsa onlys gonnas getz mores warms.


Dat CO2's is Bada, bada, stuff's..meso tinks so'






326. vis0
Quoting 254. Patrap:

This is how we install smartflower, the world's first all-in-one solar system, made in Austria.
Within a few hours after delivery, you produce your own clean power!



FANTASTIC!

 


 

On a separate thought maybe in time as more advancements in star-energy-cache designs are created / invented or things are perfected it'll become more efficient just like the car engine took dozens of years to become more fuel efficient, except here we are looking to become so efficient one makes money by saving it and making Earth Good again.  If one can become richer via the good side then why not?

 

 

As on the same naming bases as "smartflower" something called "smartseedling" in which a device buried underground and SENSITIVE ENOUGH to capture the multitude of earthquake vibrations under 2.0 (Richter) and turns those vibrations into energy to power researchable batteries.    Imagine homes in active areas (much of the world has 2.0s and if a heavy truck goes by MORE POWER TO YA, brotha ((((;- P))))  ) need not consume electrical grid energy power that creates co2, just tap into Mamanana's shimmy shake.

 

 

Finally the "smartforest" where a few tree like structures are created in city parks to the countryside on islands / parishes to "bend wind" towards some weird device which inside of a 2 floor like structure which in time includes holographic-like  turbines whose spinning is triggered by ionic manipulation.  In turn (pun intended) spinning these holographic like turbines at much higher rates than any physical turbine (remember as gawd and nature, take small steps slowly enlarge repeat as you enlarge SLIGHTLY and includes step up/step down receivers/transmitters).  Sure this has been somewhat done since the transistor was invented BUT MAN has not taken advantage as to other areas as collecting energy which is supplied by  the energy source *Patrap* reminds us is so close...Sun.   In the end something  minuscule generates something enormous...HUGE!...not necessarily shiny, sorry *aquak9*

 

Since the batteries BY THEN are storing ionic generated type of energies that when the influenced air passes by slits at higher speeds causes stored energy to multiply in the end such lite energy can power entire cities.

 

How now clear (energy) cow?

 

They (ions) cycle towards a 1 to 2 outflow as ions with maximized wind interaction created a power 2 times more than what ions alone could manage then the next step another 1 to 2 form of energy manipulation is generated.  By that second step 4 times more power is being produced than first produced and by the 4th step it 16 times more and more than gasoline would have produced. Forms of ions and static are used in the first 3 steps...THINK, lightning.

 

---------

---------

 

**Too crazy to believe say the $keptics or honest questioners/listeners then just  THINK!?,

 

...there you just proved me right ...THE BRAIN...the brainstem, the olive tree, the angelic wings, the pineal gland just a few ever so "light-resonance" features that multiply by a 1 to 2 ratio to create the most powerful thing on Earth, all we need is a leader that gives youngins goose bumps (not steps) in using words not to scare and tear things apart but unite and challenge ones imagination to reach for that which does not exist, yet is imagined.  Turn that handful of imagination into something obtainable thus leave your name in history, not for the wrong reasons but in elevating humanity to a greater good for all...or i could be 99.9% wrong.
Thanks Dr. Masters for the report: truly amazing drone footage as well..
331. vis0
" "
Just for arts sake makes it look like me saying nothing got a plus watch more pluses soon
332. vis0
Quoting 306. Grothar:

Typical February.


OHhhhhh the weather outside is frightful with an eyeful of HIGH temp. flows  all abound "US", let it roast let it roast let it roast.
 
In case a $keptic sez it will balance out, the see-saw is BROKEN!.   
 
Uh remember a couple of weeks ago a similar pattern of mid Spring like pattern of Temperatures developed throughout the center al valley/eastward and yup its    b a l a n c e d   o u t  with early spring like temperatures.   Not true balancing as a FRIGID mid winter pattern for the NE during Winter.
 
 See true balancing TO ME involves the AVERAGE temperature of the season to be the pivot(al) point of the see-saw.   If it was 55F for three days in a NYC winter the next two days a true balancing out occurs using the natural atmospheres history meant we have good odds of seeing teens as HIGHS for 2-4 days. Yet it lowered from mid-Spring Temperatures to still above average  early-Spring Temperature and now back to mid spring like pattern.  
 
 
The term balancing out is a changing.
 
BTW i recommend that when words you use you feel might be copy n pasted in an incorrect quote as lets say a $keptic wants to post i said "yup its b a l a n c e d" therefore misquoting me by removing words before or after its b a l a n c e d  making my facetious comment look like a serious statement.      Try separating those word's letters  that could be used to misquote, by using spaces between each letter of the word.  In this manner when others read the word if the word is just copied and pasted with spaces the reader understands that those words might mean the opposite or have more important meaning if the entire paragraph is read not just a snip-ouch-pet 'cause the letters where spaced out to show these words can be used to trick other readers that did not read the full article/comment.
 
Only those trying to trick people would be worried that if they copy and space and removed spaces from certain words that means they purposely changed the style of the word to lie and cannot say oh it was just an innocent copy and paste error.
 
 
Of course maybe i'm not ALT-minded enough let me see i'm getting the 60 degree S-S-S-S-Spring Sh-Sh-Sh-hivers in February, let me open the Fridge to WARM yup.   "Alternate reality, CRANK IT - it still blows."

Thanks for the heads-up Grothar its huge!,

i can see Grothar might already be refreshing his blob terms...
No blobsticles in Gro's way to coming up with excellent new blob terminology this year. Could be a strange active basin based on what shear is projected to be during an El-Nino year. Should be about average as the projections have it now. Could really open the Gulf up to some early season mischief.
Quoting 333. DeepSeaRising:

No blobsticles in Gro's way to coming up with excellent new blob terminology this year. Could be a strange active basin based on what shear is projected to be during an El-Nino year. Should be about average as the projections have it now. Could really open the Gulf up to some early season mischief.

I'm wondering that too. 2015 had nearly average activity under the second-strongest El Nino on record. Could 2017 have an above average season despite El Nino conditions? We'll have to find out. Can't wait to see Grothar start declaring blobs again.
335. Ed22
Quoting 308. Grothar:


This gos to show that February is going to be warmest month on record, its typical weak La nino to Neutral condition effects being felt in Unite States and else where, less snow fall more rainfall. This Spring going into Early Summer is going to be Hooootttt!!!! Its possibility that we could have 1 to 3 named storm before June 1st 2017, that my opinion though.
Quoting 335. Ed22:

This gos to show that February is going to be warmest month on record, its typical weak La nino to Neutral condition effects being felt in Unite States and else where, less snow fall more rainfall. This Spring going into Early Summer is going to be Hooootttt!!!! Its possibility that we could have 1 to 3 named storm before June 1st 2017, that my opinion though.

I think we could get some pre-season Atlantic development as well. I think it's probable we could see Arlene in May or even late April (although this is very unlikely), with Bret not out of the question but unlikely. This resilient warm Gulf Stream with SSTs of about 2-4 C above normal is, in my opinion, starting the Atlantic season about one month earlier.
Wow 199 MPH... I would love to see what it is like down inside the "glory hole".
Quoting 306. Grothar:

Typical February.




Going to be an interesting experience this summer.
339. Ed22
Quoting 336. HurricaneFan:


I think we could get some pre-season Atlantic development as well. I think it's probable we could see Arlene in May or even late April (although this is very unlikely), with Bret not out of the question but unlikely. This resilient warm Gulf Stream with SSTs of about 2-4 C above normal is, in my opinion, starting the Atlantic season about one month earlier.
This Low pressure system on- shore over Tampa Bay Florida heading East south East looks promising, maybe a weak Sub-tropical storm or maybe none at all but its possibility anyway.
Nighttime lows were horrible this past summer, looking to be worse this year.

I say no El Nino

I say neutral that eventually goes to either boarder cold Neutral/La Nina

similar type thing to 2011
Good thing I am moving to Greenville, SC this summer 👍
Quoting 306. Grothar:

Typical February.




Groundhog looking like he misread his shadow lol
Quoting 343. Lurkindanger:



Groundhog looking like he misread his shadow lol


He didn't see his shadow, he got a sunburn.
Go ahead and laugh. But someday my blobs will be known around the world.
346. vis0
Every 200 years California suffers a storm of biblical proportions — this year's rains are just a precursor || The Verge  [39.4kB]
 
Wha!!! you mean this is noit the big one so imagibe the big one being aGW-influnced  geeeesh
Quoting 345. Grothar:

Go ahead and laugh. But someday my blobs will be known around the world.


You need to start taking shorter naps, Grothar. :) I have already read several research papers, that were written by wannabe blobologist, that use your blog comments here as a reference for their research.
Quoting 347. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You need to start taking shorter naps, Grothar. :) I have already read several research papers, that were written by wannabe blobologist, that use your blog comments here as a reference for their research.


And I'm going to win this years hurricane forecast on the blog. I will win by a landslide. No one will be even close, believe me! My numbers will be so astronomical, very astronomical.
Note: Now that the GOES-16 ABI is starting to send data, we will be shifting our attention there. Therefore the Himawari Loop of the Day will become a Loop of Interest page and will only be updated when particularly noteworthy loops are found. In March look for a GOES-16 Loop of the Day page! Link


OROVILLE, Calif. (KCRA) —
A funnel cloud was spotted over Oroville Wednesday afternoon.

The funnel cloud was part of a storm system that was moving through region around 4 p.m.

It is unclear if the funnel touched down.

The California Department of Water Resources said crews working on the emergency spillway in Oroville are fine and "continue to make great progress."

Quoting 293. cRRKampen:
...I use a statistical argument to rule out extraterrestrial life (I am NOT a creationist). I propose some things that can happen in the entire universe are very improbable and may have happened or will happen never - or may have happened exactly once. Like pulling the jackpot from a lottery with numbered balls played 10exp100 times a second wherein you need to guess which hundred balls are thrown out sometime during the existence of the universe.
Presently we have exactly one occurence and virtually no clue how or where that came about. This proves the equivalence of statements below.
So I have staked very high on this research and discovery indeed. Actually I went all-in :)


Actually we have a pretty good idea of how and where. The fundamental process of life (self replication) actually isn't that difficult to get going. Amino acids and other organic compounds are, quite literally, scattered throughout the universe. Now obviously we weren't there to watch everything take place and we can't replicate billions of years of evolution in a lab, but there isn't much mystery to how the whole party got started.

The existence of life elsewhere is certain. That doesn't mean it will advance very far or that it is intelligent life or that it even existed for long. It just means life in some form. In fact, given the lifetime of red dwarf stars biological life is likely to have been around for quite some time before we came around. We're the new kids on the block, relatively speaking. Even within our own solar system it is very likely life existed or may even still exist on places other than Earth.

They're could have even been advanced interstellar civilizations flying throughout some galaxy long before life on Earth developed cell walls, or even before the Earth itself was capable of sustaining life. A long long time ago in a galaxy far away....

Regardless, it's never really been a question of if life exists elsewhere. It's just been a matter of when and where. It really doesn't take much to get life going, but it does take a lot to sustain it, and a lot more to make it all the way to an intelligent civilization. That's very likely to be exceedingly rare, but life itself is likely to be quite common even if only primitive.
Quoting 352. Xyrus2000:



Actually we have a pretty good idea of how and where. The fundamental process of life (self replication) actually isn't that difficult to get going. Amino acids and other organic compounds are, quite literally, scattered throughout the universe. Now obviously we weren't there to watch everything take place and we can't replicate billions of years of evolution in a lab, but there isn't much mystery to how the whole party got started.[..]


Sorry, but this is pure religion. You say 'isn't that difficult to get going', against a reality of us not able to get it going even in very rich organic environments plus we still know exactly one instance; and you are mixing up 'billions of years of evolution' with the instant evolution could start in the first place.

Simple amino acids are scattered all over, indeed. For now, that is exactly where the story ends everywhere except in that single instance we know and for which we haven't a clue of how it came about. The Murchison meteorite was as sterile as all the rest of the universe ;)
Quoting 303. CaneFreeCR:

Otto was the first hurricane to ever hit Costa Rica territory as a hurricane, in the records. We are "too far South", as the North border is just about 10 degrees N. Otto actually went ashore North of 10 degrees and then went straight West and crossed into Costa Rice in the Northwestern end.

I wonder if a cheese shipped (mailed?) from The Netherlands would be allowed in through Costa Rica customs, and whether it would survive. I carried a Serra cheese (Portugal's Serra da Estrela) and it made it OK undeclared in my checked luggage, but the mails? Don't know.

Find out. Like I said, something could be feasible here.
Older cheese keeps well, by the way.
Contact: take my name, lose the c, put a dot behind rr and gmail.

Good morning, folks, and good morning, "Doris-Thomas".

D-Day #StormDoris arrives with gales and snow
netweather.tv, Published on 23rd February 2017 07:20
The Atlantic low pressure named Storm Doris has been developing overnight, now moving over the UK. It is bringing heavy rain and snowfall, strengthening winds and high gusts. ...
More see link above with a lot of maps and pics.

Storm Doris winds reach 94mph as it hits UK
BBC, 9 minutes ago


Click to enlarge. Development of the windstorm in the last 12h.


Current gales up to 153 km/h! Source for updates.

Click the pic.twitter.com link:

At last: here a link to The Guardian's live blog:
Storm Doris 'weather bomb' brings snow, gales and travel disruption - live updates
We are on this path...Ironically we may win when many of the patterns, weather in particular, looks
bleak at times... It has some length, but is eye opening...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM
Lots of dust from the Sahara Desert crossing the Mediterranean sea. Here, a video showing dirty snow in the Pyrenees this morning: Link

AEMET Dust Forecast (animation): Link

EUMETSAT - RBG Dust enhancement (pink=dust) - Feb. 23:


Feb. 21 - via @meteos:
Great water vapor pics of Doris-Thomas (update every 15 minutes): LINK.
(Updates with F5).

@cRRKampen: Strongest attacs of the storm at your place may last quite a while this afternoon and evening (from 4pm to 11pm): Link.
Models about gusts in Gouda: Link
Best wishes!


Current pic from Mainz near my place: street carnival got officially launched ;-) Source twitter.
Hope folks will already be safe home tonight when the storm arrives at my place.


Updating loop.
i'd put my money on scotts 2017 hurricane forecast. im not saying our senior crystal ball forecaster is washed up but scotts on a roll and feeling good.
From YES! Magazine:

The Student-Built Website That Keeps Government Climate Data Safe

Since Trump’s election, scientists have been scrambling to save climate change data sets. And one Michigan graduate student thought the more copies, the better.


Photo courtesy of United States Environmental Protection Agency / Flickr.

It wasn’t long after President Trump took office that chaos took hold at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Throughout his campaign, Trump had promised to get rid of the agency, leaving just “little tidbits left.” He wasted little time.

[...]

Many scientists didn’t wait to find out what was up, what was down, or what was going which way. At risk was years of data on greenhouse gas emissions, temperature trends, sea level rise, and shrinking sea ice—data essential to our understanding of the enormous environmental shifts our planet is undergoing. Worldwide, they scrambled to capture the information from the websites of the EPA, NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the United States Geological Survey. Hackathons were organized to download the data to university servers and sites like DataRefuge and the Internet Archive for the fear that Scott Pruitt would be confirmed as head of the EPA; he was confirmed by the Senate on Friday.

Even outside of scientific circles, concerned citizens recognized a need to act. When John Rozsa, a graduate student in technology studies at Eastern Michigan University, heard about these efforts, he thought the more copies, the better. So, between classes and his full-time job, he began to download the pre-Trump version of the EPA website—28,000 files and counting.

[...]

Now he’s uploading the files to a website he calls EPA Data Dump. It’s very simplistic, he said, “due to the fact that less than one week ago the website was just a small project of mine.” The website is not quite ready for prime time—it’s still under construction—but already it’s getting a lot of attention.

EPA Data Dump has seen over 200,000 users to date, so much traffic that its server nearly crashed. Rozsa had to start a modest online fundraiser to pay for a dedicated server, more bandwidth, and increased security. The site will soon include a search engine, he said, but first the files must be organized by librarians and other volunteers.

[...]

“Any climate data that has been collected and published by government scientists, or as a result of government-funded or government-sponsored research, belongs in the public domain,” said Michael Mann, professor and director of the Pennsylvania State University Earth System Science Center and lead-author of the now-famous “hockey stick graph” of rising global average temperatures.

“The public has a right to know that it is safe and that it will be preserved for posterity, despite the fluctuations in the prevailing political winds,” he said. “The fact that scientists are fearful that climate data inconvenient to the vested interests that have funded President Trump and congressional republicans will be scrubbed from government websites is a testament to the truly chilling nature of the fossil fuel industry-funded assault on climate science.”

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 345. Grothar:

Go ahead and laugh. But someday my blobs will be known around the world.

What a Horrible thought..... :):))

But for the time being, it's a Glorious morning, cool and clear with Toucans in the trees outside.
So here, have a coffee and contemplate the Future.
Or maybe not. It's too early to be Depressed.....
363. Ed22
Quoting 341. wunderkidcayman:

I say no El Nino

I say neutral that eventually goes to either boarder cold Neutral/La Nina

similar type thing to 2011
Agree perfectly.
Collection of beach cams in the Netherlands.
Overview of all categories: link.
Storm is about to enter the European continent. But the southern rearside of the storm will carry the worst gales, as far a I know.


Current gusts in England (saved).


Track of the center of Doris-Thomas.

Beautiful new loop from UK's Met office (click the pic.twitter.com link):

Seems to be heading toward Netherland


A lobe of the PV may yet make another visit to the east. I'm not convinced it will be this deep, but it could happen.



Quoting 365. Uragani:

Seems to be heading toward Netherland




Yes, and I'm at the end of the barrel.

First station in the Netherlands registered severe gale force just then: it has begun. Some coastal places will make it storm force.
Good Morning Folks; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look. Note that a low did develop over South Florida but the State is on the dry side today as the trof pushes into the Atlantic:









Quoting 364. barbamz:

Collection of beach cams in the Netherlands.

Storm is about to enter the European continent. But the southern rearside of the storm will carry the worst gales, as far a I know.


Trough side behind Cf. The 'hammer' of the curl. 107 km/h gust max 15 minutes ago. Main force about three hours from now.
And the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream are helping to fire some of the t-storms off the East Coast (particularly off of Georgia and South Carolina) due to some baroclinic forcing:



Quoting 370. cRRKampen:

Trough side behind Cf. The 'hammer' of the curl. 107 km/h gust max 15 minutes ago. Main force about three hours from now.

Gales on the other side of the Channel pretty high in the last hour (one at 119 km/h): link. And in the Guardian live blog (see above comment #355) first storm related fatality was just reported :-(
And here is the updated Drought Monitor issued this morning; more drought relief for California and the West Coast but at the cost of flooding: at least they do not have to worry about their waters needs from reservoirs and melting snow pack for the Spring agricultural season and domestic consumption. Incredible that all the "reds" got wiped out in the span of about 10 weeks.

Current U.S. Drought Monitor
374. Ed22
Quoting 369. Uragani:


To me Low pressure systems is jogging towards the South-east at the moment, not moving much and it's well organized too.
Below are the buoy readings for Fowey Rocks off the Coast of Miami with water temps at 73F. Marginal for tropical development in terms of where the low is headed and shear is waaaaay too high for any significant development IMHO;
NDBC
Location: 25.591N 80.097W
Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 13:00:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (250°) at 9.9 kt gusting to 11.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.69 in and rising
Air Temperature: 68.4 F
Water Temperature: 73.8 F

376. Ed22
Quoting 371. weathermanwannabe:

And the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream are helping to fire some of the t-storms off the East Coast (particularly off of Georgia and South Carolina) due to some baroclinic forcing:




Could we get a sub-tropical storm or Tropical storm because its not moving much and it be deeping further.
Part 1 is now published.

It was and remains the genesis for me being here...today.

Take a moment to check it out.

Thanks,

Mr. P'

Evacuation, Exodus and Return: A Personal Encounter With Hurricane Katrina
By: Portlight , 1:17 PM CST on February 22, 2017


This is the first part of a four-part series focusing on Global Climate Change and its impact on human lives and the increasing number of climate change refugees society will have to deal with. We will discuss the impact of Hurricane Katrina along the Northern Gulf Coast as it affected Hundreds of thousands of American lives in Louisiana and Mississippi directly, and millions of others indirectly. All together, 1.36 million people applied to FEMA for disaster assistance in the wake of Katrina.

We find ourselves this day and tomorrow in a warming world. A world where the human influence on the Natural World is 170 times more than what Nature slowly does over thousands of years. In the Natural World before fossil fuel burning we were warming globally by 0.01°C per century. As this recent new research has shown, greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans over the past 45 years, on the other hand, “have increased the rate of temperature rise to 1.7 degrees Celsius per century, dwarfing the natural background rate."

The record setting 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season was a clear signal to this author that a new norm has been reached. So we begin our discussion of what I and others witnessed, experienced and learned from the Storm that caused the largest displacement of Americans since the Great Dust Bowl of the 1930s.





But a "very" interesting feature, for February, nonetheless.................................... :)



Quoting 353. cRRKampen:



Sorry, but this is pure religion. You say 'isn't that difficult to get going', against a reality of us not able to get it going even in very rich organic environments plus we still know exactly one instance; and you are mixing up 'billions of years of evolution' with the instant evolution could start in the first place.


No, it really isn't religion. It's science. There have been many experiments with organic compounds in primordial conditions that have yielded the formation of self-organizing/self-replicating protein structures. Mutations, the basis of evolution, isn't some magical moment that occurs. It's a side effect of the environment. Radiation, radical compounds, etc. all have an impact just like any other chemical reaction. The structures that persist in the face of environmental conditions continue on. The structures that fall apart don't.



Simple amino acids are scattered all over, indeed. For now, that is exactly where the story ends everywhere except in that single instance we know and for which we haven't a clue of how it came about. The Murchison meteorite was as sterile as all the rest of the universe ;)

That is a logical fallacy. You can't base a hypothesis on ignorance and expect to hold any rigor. The most you could say is "we don't know". Ruling it out entirely when there is already evidence to contrary makes a very weak argument.
Quoting 376. Ed22:

Could we get a sub-tropical storm or Tropical storm because its not moving much and it be deeping further.


If it holds on to the convection and can deepen a little bit, it could end up as a sub-tropical entity if it can overcome some of the shear but so far so good; this looks better than a typical tropical depression at the moment minus the required wind speeds at the surface. However, it remains a heavily sheered disturbance with all of the load off to the East.  Here is the most recent surface vort signature. A very broad circulation with no concentrated surface vort at the moment and tilted to the right.


Global warming will speed up as world drought hits, say Scots researchers

“As the temperature of the planet continues to climb, mass tree mortality will hit more forests than ever before.

“Forests store a substantial amount of the world’s carbon and increased tree death will only propel future global warming.

“This has very significant implications for fully understanding the impact of climate change on our planet.”


Link
Quoting 293. cRRKampen:


I use a statistical argument to rule out extraterrestrial life...


We have confirmed that out of 2 planets in our star's habitable zone, at least one of them has life. We are discovering that there are as many as 40 billion planets in the universe in the habitable zone of other stars. So if you want to use a statistical argument based on known data instead of theories or assumptions, there is certainly life throughout the universe.
Will finally note that the lower level cloud deck over Tallahassee (even though a sunny morning here) is currently rotating out of the NE. That means that the low is trying to get organized off the Florida East Coast............A good day to keep an eye on the buoy readings off of Florida.

And I forgot to post this:



Most wood energy schemes are a 'disaster' for climate change

Using wood pellets to generate low-carbon electricity is a flawed policy that is speeding up not slowing down climate warming.
That's according to a new study which says wood is not carbon neutral and emissions from pellets are higher than coal.
Subsidies for biomass should be immediately reviewed, the author says.
Energy from trees has become a critical part of the renewable supply in many countries including the UK.


Link
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
625 am EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Aviation [through 12z friday]...

Low clouds are currently producing some broken MVFR/IFR cigs
across our area. Shortly after sunrise, low clouds are expected to
rise and become more scattered, with VFR conditions likely at all
terminals after 15z-16z. After this occurs, expect VFR to prevail
through the afternoon and evening hours. Low clouds and/or patchy
fog could develop at all terminals again overnight into early
Friday morning, mainly after 06z Friday.

&&

Previous discussion [248 am est]...

Near term [through today]...

The deep layer low pressure system that moved across the
northeastern Gulf yesterday has slowly pushed southeast of our area,
and at 500 mb a strong closed low currently sits over the southern
Florida Peninsula. A broad surface low is just east of this feature,
currently residing along the East Coast of southern Florida and will
remain nearly stationary through this morning into the afternoon.
Between this feature and relatively high pressure to our north, our
area will remain under northeasterly flow throughout this period,
and lingering low level moisture will continue to support ample
cloud cover through this morning. Increasingly dry air, especially
at mid-levels, will work into our area during the late morning and
afternoon, resulting in decreasing clouds during this time. As a
result, increased solar heating will lead to warmer temperatures
than yesterday, with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s across our
area.



Short term [tonight through saturday]...

A 500mb ridge will build into the County Warning Area tonight with precipitable water values
dropping to between 0.7 and 0.9 inches. While overall the
sounding is on the drier side, some low level moisture around 12z
tomorrow morning will allow for a few low clouds. Skies will
quickly clear for the afternoon though and temperatures will reach
into the 70s along the coast to low 80s inland.

A weak cold front will push into the southeast Friday night and move
through the tri-state area on Saturday. Guidance still indicates
very little moisture with the front as it moves through so have
continued only a slight chance of showers as the front moves through
Saturday. Drier air will filter in behind the front with dewpoints
dropping into the upper 30s across the northern portion of the County Warning Area
Saturday afternoon. While temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler on Saturday with highs reaching into the 70s, the
temperature effects from the front will be more noticeable in the
long term.



Long term [saturday night through thursday]...

Behind the front, surface high pressure will build into the County Warning Area
Saturday night and drier air will filter in. Noticeably cooler
temperatures are forecast for Sunday morning with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s (a few degrees below normal). Highs on
Sunday will warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s, also seasonable
for this time of year. As this surface ridge shifts eastward and
the winds become southerly, temperatures will warm again for the
long term. Another system is forecast to push into the southeast
on Monday but the bulk of the moisture remains north of the County Warning Area.
The next cold front expected to push through the County Warning Area on Thursday
will bring the return of widespread rain chances beginning
Wednesday night.



Marine...
Unfortunately, the Buoys on Settlement Point in the Bahamas and the other one due East of Cape Canaveral are both "broken" at the moment so we cannot get any real time readings as to wind speeds out there..................No other ones that far out so we are stuck at the moment with coastal readings and satellite presentation and radar...............Would love to know what the surface winds and pressures are out there.
Quoting 366. gr8lakebreeze:

A lobe of the PV may yet make another visit to the east. I'm not convinced it will be this deep, but it could happen.






This is typical for March. It's why, frustrating as it is, I can't set my cool season stuff in the garden yet in MD unless it (spinach and broccoli seedlings are ) is hardy to at least 20F or lower. Because of drought soils are friable and workable, a condition often not reached until mid April here. The more typical late February state is mud or sometimes frozen. If we didn't have something like this in March it would be unusual.

In March 2014, following a several day warm humid spell in February which started dormancy break, temperatures here got into the low single digits. This killed a lot of species that are normally hardy here.



Quoting 385. 999Ai2016:


it's mid-afternoon, Feb. 23, and as of 1400 UTC two stations in SE France are recording 20.9 C / 69.6 F, while in S Germany two stations are recording temps slightly above 20 C / 68 F ...


EXTREMELY warm in northeastern North America also.!
Quoting 385. 999Ai2016:


it's mid-afternoon, Feb. 23, and as of 1400 UTC two stations in SE France are recording 20.9 C / 69.6 F, while in S Germany two stations are recording temps slightly above 20 C / 68 F ...

Normal is almost a memory.

The Global warming continues as we pour 400,000tons of CO2 into the Biosphere every hour...,

....it continues, unabated.

Quoting 382. sonofagunn:



We have confirmed that out of 2 planets in our star's habitable zone, at least one of them has life. We are discovering that there are as many as 40 billion planets in the universe in the habitable zone of other stars. So if you want to use a statistical argument based on known data instead of theories or assumptions, there is certainly life throughout the universe.

You mention tiny numbers. Forty billion is just about nothing.
It's like the number of different sequences of 15 numbered balls or so. Seriously tiny, negligable.

The statistical argument is you can say nothing, simply NOTHING, with only and exactly one instance and no theory as to how it came about.

By far most things that are possible in the universe will never happen during the lifetime of the universe. This includes almost all possible games of chess, even if every elementary particle plays a different game every femtosecond. This is the kind of 'statistical' argument I am making here.

I repeat therefore the scientific truth is this:
The statements:
1. There must be extraterrestrial life
and
2. There must be exact copies of earth, up to all thoughts thought by men, all runs ran by ants and hares, all influenza virus mutations et cetera -
are equivalent.

As I said somewhere else below: I am debating a kind of religion here, not science. The astronomical caveat in all this is the term 'there must be'. Nobody can show how, and throwing around some small numbers like the number of planets or the number of protons in the universe simply will not do.

All we know is: there could be extraterrestrial life. We know this because we already have one instance. But by the same empirical evidence we can not say 'there must be extraterrestrial life'. That is sheer belief.

Quoting 379. Xyrus2000:



No, it really isn't religion. It's science. There have been many experiments with organic compounds in primordial conditions that have yielded the formation of self-organizing/self-replicating protein structures.

I have just explained the nature of the religion.

Those experiments, please? I may have missed something there.
Quoting 394. 62901IL:

SKINNERRRR?!

Don't touch the faiths :)
Quoting 348. Grothar:



And I'm going to win this years hurricane forecast on the blog. I will win by a landslide. No one will be even close, believe me! My numbers will be so astronomical, very astronomical.


You will likely do that. I would much prefer that you would be our current President. I would support you 100% on that. I could certainly trust your numbers more readily than I trust the current numbers coming out of the WH. I wish that your name would have been on the ballot.
Trough is now coming up on the Dutch coast. IJmuiden storm force 10, gust 115 km/h. We expect the max gusts at 130 km/h between one and four hours from now.

A lot of trucks already scorpioned and blocking roads and highways.
The tail goes all the way down to Nicaragua

Quoting 391. Patrap:


Normal is almost a memory.

The Global warming continues as we pour 400,000tons of CO2 into the Biosphere every hour...,

....it continues, unabated.




Warming and most of its awful consequences are indeed in our future. However normal to colder than normal seasons LOCALLY (several state or west or east half) in North America are not completely gone and we will have a bunch more before warming wipes out that possibility (as it has in the coastal Arctic for boreal autumn.. maybe never be another colder than normal one there ever!)
Quoting 390. georgevandenberghe:



EXTREMELY warm in northeastern North America also.!


2 years ago I was in Toronto Canada on about the 20th of February and it was about -20/C. Today its about +16/C, quite a difference of 36/C.

Link

Here in southern Spain its raining a bit on and off. Yesterday the visibility was down to about 5 kilometres, 3 miles due to the dense African dust which they call "calima" here, today its red mud all over everything.

Appaling conditions in the UK and northern Europe with storms.

Featuring:

403. vis0
Nature is testing the waters 24/7

not showing link it(SAT 2 frames SE USofA visible)
Hm. Schiphol Airport is out for a while.
Tried to paste an image. Will do Link
405. Ed22
Quoting 369. Uragani:


When I look at the latest Graphic surface analysis, it shows that the Low more North, I personally think it more south than the graph Surface Analysis is showing currently; it's between Florida and Northern part of The Bahamas. Current wind-shear is 20 to 30 knots thats Marginal now and could decrease further this today into this evening, its pretty well organized for this time of the year (2017).
The gulf stream can do wonders for the core of a developing low; gonna be an interesting watch over the next 24 hours but it looks like it is trying to fight the shear to become a sub-tropical system if it can pull it off (it is still embedded within the trof and not a distinct fully separated entity yet):



Quoting 404. cRRKampen:

Hm. Schiphol Airport is out for a while.
Tried to paste an image. Will do Link

Strong gusts now in northwestern Germany as well. Several open air carnival events in this region had been canceled.
In England the storm has caused / is causing major traffic disruptions, see Guardian Blog.

BTW, in southern Germany and Switzerland some weather stations have set their new heat record for February today.
Quoting 407. barbamz:


Strong gusts now in northwestern Germany as well. Several open air carnival events in this region had been canceled.
In England the storm has caused / is causing major traffic disruptions, see Guardian Blog.

Here's the Schiphol movie.
409. Ed22
Quoting 406. weathermanwannabe:

The gulf stream can do wonders for the core of a developing low; gonna be an interesting watch over the next 24 hours but it looks like it is trying to fight the shear to become a sub-tropical system if it can pull it off (it is still embedded within the trof and not a district entity yet):



The Low getting act together, I will not be surprised if it a Sub- tropical system tonight or tomorrow.
Quoting 393. cRRKampen:


I have just explained the nature of the religion.

Those experiments, please? I may have missed something there.



U have the net, it ain't hard to find a 60 year old thang..really.

Do yer own research, this is not a drive thru. Maybe google " The Miller-Urey experiment ."

U have a hint, go fetch.








Thanx
Quoting 400. PlazaRed:



2 years ago I was in Toronto Canada on about the 20th of February and it was about -20/C. Today its about +16/C, quite a difference of 36/C.

Link

Here in southern Spain its raining a bit on and off. Yesterday the visibility was down to about 5 kilometres, 3 miles due to the dense African dust which they call "calima" here, today its red mud all over everything.

Appaling conditions in the UK and northern Europe with storms.




February 2015 in the Washington DC area was the coldest February since 1979. Even while warming progresses, cold events can still happen.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 408. cRRKampen:


Here's the Schiphol movie.

Umm, bad!
Found an article in English about this incident:
Flybe Flight 1284 suffers landing mishap at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport
PUBLISHED Thu, February 23, 2017 - 11:31am EST
Lots of talk about life on other planets in this blog. So I thought many of you would find this podcast from Tuesday interesting.
Streamed live on Feb 21, 2017
Neil deGrasse Tyson is an astrophysicist, cosmologist, author, and science communicator.

I found it really interesting when he started talking about how space debri (our garbage left in orbit) could prevent us from going to space if it continues at 1:44 of the podcast.
They also discuss the likely implications of intelligent life on other planets.
He also doesn't seem to think setting up human populations on Mars or other planets is very practical.
Link
Quoting 356. 1982ExxonPrimate:

We are on this path...Ironically we may win when many of the patterns, weather in particular, looks
bleak at times... It has some length, but is eye opening...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kxryv2XrnqM
Long but interesting. Major disruptions toward major reductions in CO2 ahead for transportation and energy. How much further can we get away with pushing our climate until these disruptions happen?
What are Bob and Jeff talking about in this blog when they say "Fortunately, the storm underperformed somewhat when it came to rainfall, much like its older sibling that hit southern California last Friday. " !! The storm on Friday was epic. I've lived in southern California all my life and never experience anything like that. We had major flooding and hurricane force winds. My rain gage in Thousand Oaks measured 6 1/2 inches in 24 hours and we had wind gusts up to 50-60 mph.
417. vis0

Quoting 416. weatherwatcher58:

What are Bob and Jeff talking about in this blog when they say "Fortunately, the storm underperformed somewhat when it came to rainfall, much like its older sibling that hit southern California last Friday. " !! The storm on Friday was epic. I've lived in southern California all my life and never experience anything like that. We had major flooding and hurricane force winds. My rain gage in Thousand Oaks measured 6 1/2 inches in 24 hours and we had wind gusts up to 50-60 mph.
Not their representatives, just a nut in NYc so below just my opinion. .

i think by under-performed it was meant as to what was expected.  What was expected as to rainfall as ~48 hrs before THAT LOW/storm entered Ca airspace  was about 20 to 30% more.  For whatever reason the energy was there but went into making winds a lot much stronger and ~30% less rain than expected fell.

Can more fall, you bet ya with the added warmth more moisture is in the air all that is need is the right -(as to creating MAX rain) / wrong-(if you're under it) angle of attack via nature and the clashing of natural forces could squeeze out almost two times more than what was EXPECTED.


Read on the thought to be 200 year cycle of MEGA atmospheric rivers that fall onto the western coast of North America for more info. 

Here is just one story search for more, and always be prepared - have emergency kits ready