WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Dangerous, Multipronged Storm Strafing Central/Northern California

By: Bob Henson 5:57 PM GMT on February 20, 2017

What may become known as the President’s Day Storm of 2017 barreled into the San Francisco Bay area on Monday morning. The core of the storm was an atmospheric river roughly 75 to 100 miles wide, pointing a firehose of moisture toward vulnerable foothills and urban areas. With soils already sodden, the risk of flash flooding was high, and the tail end of the storm promised to bring ferocious winds into the area that could knock out power for many thousands of residents, in some cases for prolonged periods. Toward the Sierra, the storm will deliver yet another onslaught of torrential rain and several feet of mountain snow, as the region’s water infrastructure groans under its fiercest assault in a number of years.


Figure 1. An atmospheric river of moisture extended from Hawaii to the San Francisco Bay area in California at 3 am PST Monday, February 20, 2017, as seen in this satellite-derived measurement of total precipitable water (TPW)--the total amount of water that would fall on the ground if one were to condense out all of the water vapor in the atmosphere. Image credit: University of Wisconsin SSEC.

Heavy rain: Location is everything
Monday’s atmospheric river (AR) extends back in a fetch almost directly from Hawaii, as shown in Figure 1, making it a classic “Pineapple Express.” The AR was carrying at least 1.25” to 1.5” of precipitable water, or the amount of moisture in the column of air above a particular spot. That’s an amount seen on average once every 5 to 10 years in the area, noted the Sacramento office of the National Weather Service. Unlike many big storms, this one won’t arrive with a strong surface low; instead, a relatively weak low will be moving into Oregon on Tuesday, well north of the fairly linear AR.

Oriented from west-southwest to east-northeast, the AR will be translating north and south across the southern Bay Area on Monday. The exact timing and duration of those north-south shifts are difficult to predict, but they will largely control where the heaviest rains fall. Since Sunday, models have tamped down the peak storm totals somewhat, and pushed the most likely location of the heaviest rains southward into the South Bay region, roughly from San Mateo to Santa Cruz. Localized amounts could be enormous--potentially 10” or more on the west side of the Santa Cruz Mountains.

The cities of San Francisco, Oakland, and Sacramento will see moderate to heavy rain throughout Monday, most likely totaling 2” to 3”. These amounts could be lower or higher depending on how much time the AR spends on the northern edge of its north-south range. Pockets of urban flash flooding are a given, but the bigger impact in these cities could be the high winds expected to rip through the area later on Monday, toward the tail end of the storm (see Figure 3). With the soils so wet, these winds could easily knock large trees onto power lines. If these outages are especially widespread, it may take days for repairs to be completed.


Figure 2. Precipitation forecast from the 12Z Monday run of the 3-km NAM model for the 24-hour period from 4 am PST Monday to 4 am PST Tuesday, February 20-21, 2017. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.


Figure 3. Potential top wind gusts predicted for Monday night, February 20, 2017. Widespread, extended power outages are possible. Image credit: NWS/Sacramento.

Oroville and other dams and levees
Precipitation totals of 5” or more are also possible across parts of the Feather River watershed feeding into Lake Oroville. This is bound to push lake levels toward a new spike even as water continues pouring from the lake’s damaged main spillway. Fortunately, the lake level is down some 50 feet from its overflow state last Sunday, February 12, when the emergency spillway at Oroville Dam showed signs of failure that prompted the evacuation of more than 180,000 people. By Sunday, the amount of water in the reservoir had dropped to 79% of capacity. This greatly reduces the odds that the impending storm will bring the lake back near capacity. Meanwhile, repair work has proceeded along the emergency spillway (see embedded video at bottom).

Other levees and dams across central and northern California will need to be watched over the next few days, as new trouble spots could easily emerge. Overall, the region’s saturated soils will be raising the flood risk to very concerning levels. “We may see flooding in locations which haven`t been impacted in many years. We are strongly advising all residents in interior Northern California to be prepared for flooding,” warned the National Weather Service’s Sacramento office in a flood warning for urban areas and small streams that covers 24 counties through 4 pm PST Thursday. More wet weather is possible toward the end of the week and into early next week, although these storms look much less potent than Monday’s.

Climate change and atmospheric rivers
California’s patterns of rain and drought are notoriously variable, and climate change promises no help in alleviating this whiplash. Recent work has shown that warming temperatures associated with human-produced climate change are worsening the impacts of drought when it occurs in California. Climate change may also intensify the atmospheric rivers (ARs) that bring the U.S. West Coast its most intense multiday rains.

In many parts of the world, the most extreme rainfall events are getting heavier, as greenhouse-warmed oceans pump more moisture into the atmosphere. Up to now, this effect has been difficult to detect in the Southwest, and especially in California, when juxtaposed against the high natural variability of the state’s hydrological regime (evident in Figure 4 below). The 2014 U.S. National Assessment showed that the amount of precipitation falling from 1958 to 2012 on the wettest 1% of days climbed by 71% in the Northeast and New England, and by 37% in the Midwest, but by only 5% in the assessment’s Southwest region, which includes California.


Figure 4. Averages of contributions to water-year total precipitation on Pineapple Express days, plus the following day of each event, at 202 cooperative weather stations in central and northern California, 1951–2008. The graph shows that Pineapple Express events contribute as little as 0 or as much as 54% (0.54) of water-year precipitation for any given year. Image credit: Michael D. Dettinger, Fred Martin Ralph, Tapash Das, Paul J. Neiman and Daniel R. Cayan, “Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California,” Water 2011, v. 3, pp. 445-478.

There remains a good deal of uncertainty over whether total precipitation will tend to increase or decrease over California and the Southwest as the century unfolds. It’s entirely possible that intense periods of multiyear drought--made more destructive by higher temperatures--will alternate with some very wet winters. Regardless of whether average precipitation goes up or down, there is evidence that the strongest ARs events will dump more rain and exert more of an impact over time. The 2014 USNA noted: “An increase in winter flood hazard risk in rivers is projected due to increases in flows of atmospheric moisture into California’s coastal ranges and the Sierra Nevada.” A 2015 study in the Journal of Hydrometeorology shows that West Coast rainfall on the most extreme AR days could increase by as much as 39% by the end of this century, mainly because of more water vapor within the ARs.

A plausible worst-case scenario: 1861-62
Even without any help from our changing climate, we know that California can already get intense multiday rain spells and mammoth multi-week totals unlike anything in living memory. As we noted in Sunday’s post, most of the top 1-, 2-, and 3-day rainfall totals in the cities of central California occurred in several landmark events before 1900. The great concern among water managers and hydrologic scientists is the recurrence of a winter like the one of 1861-62, which produced nearly 30” of rain in San Francisco over a month’s time and more than 100” in the town of Sonora in just two months.

A major study called ARkStorm evaluated the potentially catastrophic effects if a winter similar to 1861-62 were to occur today. The study found that direct damages and losses to economic activity would total a mind-boggling $725 billion. Paleoclimate data indicate that we could expect such an event about once every 300 years, even before taking climate change into account. An ultra-mega-flood is indeed the other “big one” that Californians must take seriously. For more on ARkStorm, see these posts from Jeff Masters and Christopher Burt.

We’ll be back on Tuesday afternoon with a post reviewing the impacts of the southern California storm on Friday as well as the currently unfolding storm over central and northern California.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. Downtown Sacramento at the height of the flood in January 1862. Sacramento recorded 23.68” of rain during the two-month period of December-January 1861-62, compared to its annual average of 19.87”. Massive runoff from the mountains during the warm storms filled the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys almost from the foothills of the Sierra on the east to the hills on the west side of the Great Valley, and a giant lake, estimated to be 250-300 miles long and 20 miles wide, covered the present-day locations of cities and farmland across much of the San Joaquin Valley. Image credit: Bancroft Library Collection, University of California, Berkeley.





The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

test test test
I didn't do anything honest
Quoting 88. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I didn't do anything honest


Did you push that blue button that they told you not to touch under any circumstance?
Quoting 91. PedleyCA:



Did you push that blue button that they told you not to touch under any circumstance?
what blue button

The northern New South Wales town of Moree has somehow recorded a run of 54 consecutive days with maximums above 35C (95F). The previous record was 17 days, set in 1981. It also breaks the NSW state-wide record which was 50 days, set in Bourke in 2012-13.

Link
Another coral bleaching event is currently taking place on the Great Barrier Reef with “definite large areas of mortality” seen from Cairns to Townsville.

Link
This is awful. A lot of comments with good information gone.
Spain – Flash Floods in Malaga After 130 mm of Rain in 6 Hours

Storms in the Province of Malaga, southern Spain , resulted in widespread flash flooding on 19 February 2017 causing damage to damaged homes, roads and vehicles.

The city of Malaga was the worst affected area. Spain’s meteorological office, AEMET, says that the the port of Malaga recorded 152.6 mm of rain in 24 hours on 19 February, with as much as 130.06 mm of that total falling in a 6 hour period.


Link

98. vis0
Its been like this for ~4to5 days where AT TIMES one has to post something to see the comments. 
Once a comment is posted "ignore user" becomes "modify comment" and the file [i hope its humour] "lemon juice" is removed [/i hope its humour] and one can see comments.

okay so no extension or lemon juice trickery...
Blog all wonky?
100. vis0
abracadabraaaah



POOF!!!!!!

cluck cluck cluck
This last weekend I drove to Nevada City (CA) and back from Humboldt County. Going out on Saturday I got stopped southbound on I5 near Maxwell. Took me two hours to go two miles. Turns out the highway, I5, was flooded and vehicles were just barely making it through. I got off at Maxwell and was able to head east and take 45 to Colusa and pick up HWY 20 again. 20 was shut down due to flooding both east and west of Williams.

The Central Valley is full of water. Sometimes it even seemed like the water was higher than the road. Lots of orchards are flooded. Maybe that's OK this time of year? Lots of blossoms on the trees. Almonds I think. Maybe olives.

Rained all the way back today. I went back the way I came and this time there was a Pilot Car on the road to Maxwell due to flooding. There was also flooding on HWY 36 at Carlotta near the fire station, but it was passable.

I'm really glad to be home. I was worried about a landslide closing the road. HWY 299 and 20 are out. That means 36 is the only way to the central valley without going first to Oregon or down to Marin County. The wind hasn't picked up yet, but it's supposed to be pretty bad tonight, and with such saturated soils, some trees are going to come down. If a 10-foot diameter redwood falls across the road, it can take a while to clear.
102. vis0

Quoting 92. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

what blue button


there actually was an error in a comment that had a blue button, i figure it was a blue button that was  copy n pasted by error from wxu interface that caused servers to read comment as if when one looks into a mirror that has a mirror behind it rrerererererepeats so that feature was cut off maybe servers take the infinite rerererepeating as some dangerous multiplying file and maybe that causes to remove more features. Its the third time i see the copying of one of WxU's buttons cause this.  Sent this thought last year and figured vno one read it so its now public/.  Hopefully the new board will give us a whole new batch of errors maybe 21st century errors...i'm becoming sar2401...that's a good thing, keeps people on their toes.


weather...zip 10016 what was it the phil saw his shadow in a spedoo**  which meant 6 more weeks on man influenced weather.

If next year those at Phils retreat/camp use a projector to project a shadow of what appears to be a rodent in a hula skirt i want 30% of the cut or slices of rare meat bolonga...too soon?
I fully-explicated article that I appreciate for its length. You have an obvious contradiction that I hope you will appreciate knowing about.

You wrote, "California’s patterns of rain and drought are notoriously variable, and climate change promises no help in alleviating this whiplash. Recent work has shown that warming temperatures associated with human-produced climate change are worsening the impacts of drought when it occurs in California."

Then, you describe the flooding of 1861-1862, a time period outside your assumed "human-produced climate change." I am confused by your perspective. Are you reporting meteorological information and patterns or are you lobby for a political position?

The reality, as I understand the southwest portion of North America, is that the climate variability is extensive, droughts, (often lengthy) interspersed with very wet periods. Those patterns are meteorological facts. Whether or not we are in one of the interglacial climate periods is not the current topic of your article. But, one can assume you are familiar with those patterns and have deliberately excluded that information based on an educated assessment.

From a meteorologist perspective, the article was somewhat helpful. However, trending off into a political debate lessens the influence of your discussion. In reference to the history of this area and the current climatic conditions, what is your assessment for generational climate change, leaving out the politics of anthropogenic effects, inasmuch as the climate has changed dramatically without those hypothesized effects.
100 days until the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 103. WU-061842:

I fully-explicated article that I appreciate for its length. You have an obvious contradiction that I hope you will appreciate knowing about.

You wrote, "California’s patterns of rain and drought are notoriously variable, and climate change promises no help in alleviating this whiplash. Recent work has shown that warming temperatures associated with human-produced climate change are worsening the impacts of drought when it occurs in California."

Then, you describe the flooding of 1861-1862, a time period outside your assumed "human-produced climate change." I am confused by your perspective. Are you reporting meteorological information and patterns or are you lobby for a political position?

The reality, as I understand the southwest portion of North America, is that the climate variability is extensive, droughts, (often lengthy) interspersed with very wet periods. Those patterns are meteorological facts. Whether or not we are in one of the interglacial climate periods is not the current topic of your article. But, one can assume you are familiar with those patterns and have deliberately excluded that information based on an educated assessment.

From a meteorologist perspective, the article was somewhat helpful. However, trending off into a political debate lessens the influence of your discussion. In reference to the history of this area and the current climatic conditions, what is your assessment for generational climate change, leaving out the politics of anthropogenic effects, inasmuch as the climate has changed dramatically without those hypothesized effects.

Hmm, I think you might be a little oversensitive. I re-read the OP and the only mention of politics is when he mentions that it's Presedent's Day. Please check you baggage at the door.

And I think the point of mentioning the great flood of 1861 was that California can have (and has had) that kind of flooding from time to time, but climate change makes it more likely. I suppose you could argue that we have better flood control structures now, but as the recent events at Lake Oriville have shown, when it won't stop raining, all you can do is get out of the way.
San Antonio tornado survey (Bexar/Comal Co):

Link

Still waiting on the NWS report for the two preliminary EF-2 tornadoes in Williamson County near Thrall, TX.
From the Miami NWS Discussion...

This system will bring our next opportunity for active weather for
the middle of the week. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have a 500mb
cutoff low dropping down, pinching off from the main flow Tuesday
night, centered near New Orleans late Wednesday evening. The low
moves into the eastern gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning. This will
push moisture and instability into the region early Wednesday
morning. PoPs begin showing up in the forecast between 06z and 12z
Wednesday, with a chance of showers along both coasts, and a
slight chance in much of the interior, mainly due to some
isentropic lift ahead of the system.

By mid day Wednesday, a cold front takes better shape, bringing
the threat show thunderstorms to South Florida, mainly from
Wednesday afternoon into late Wednesday evening. There is a
35-45kt low level jet Wednesday afternoon and evening as well,
mainly affecting the southern portion of South Florida. This may
help to amplify any storms that do develop. The models are
showing the front to be off the Atlantic coast by 12z Thursday
morning. The actual surface low is currently progged to pass
across the Florida peninsula Thursday morning, somewhere over
Central Florida. Models are indicating there may be some wrap
around showers that may affect the CWA on Thursday, mainly in the
morning hours.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMyrPih3GQ0
Hurricanefran what does that post show on 89 and what does that mean?
Post 107

They seem to be backing off the potential of this system compared to yesterday evening's discussion. Even with the low crossing further north.
Quoting 104. HurricaneFan:

100 days until the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.



the highlight of my year, i can't wait!
Going 15 to 95 north was the way to go. Only weather of note was the thick fog along the peak by Goldfield, and the heavy rain between Hawthorne and Fallon. I got teased for it, but looking at the northern Sierras from the east was like a scene out of Return of the King.
Test.

Interesting look across the globe

My earlier comment went poof so I will bring it back

Not stopping.........
Whoa...wormhole'

2-19-2017; Tropical Moisure Flowing Into Central & So. CA on Jet Stream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMyrPih3GQ0
Quoting 103. WU-061842:

In reference to the history of this area and the current climatic conditions, what is your assessment for generational climate change, leaving out the politics of anthropogenic effects, inasmuch as the climate has changed dramatically without those hypothesized effects.


What's "generational climate change" and how does it exist separate and distinct from any "anthropogenic effects"? And what would the purpose be of trying to tease out the effects of the former, but not the latter, on California's current climatic conditions?

It's like trying to calculate what influence gravity, but not fuel consumption, has on your drive from LA to San Francisco. Doesn't seem to make any sense.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
14:00 PM FST February 21 2017
================================

At 2:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1002 hPa) located at 20.8S 165.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. Organization continue to improve. 15F lies under an upper ridge region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Outflow good to the north and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern yields DT=2.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it east southeast with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 22.9S 161.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 25.1S 158.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 29.0S 150.5W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
ok keeper...i won't ask for anymore links the blog doesn't seem to like it :)
Quoting 88. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I didn't do anything honest


Me either, but I am a politician, I am not supposed to anything honest.
122. elioe
Well here's something that hasn't happened for almost 14 months...

123. vis0
- New Research Shows How 'Atmospheric Rivers' Wreak Havoc Around The Globe || npr [32.7KB]

-

- Rivers in the sky causing widespread chaos in California || usatoday [42.3KB]

_________________________________________________ ______________

_________________________________________________ ______________

 

- 60000-year-old microbes found in Mexican mine: NASA scientist || Space Daily []

-

- Naica's crystal caves hold long-dormant life || BBC News [33.8KB]  ...cough cough
How an Interoffice Spat Erupted Into a Climate-Change Furor

A few weeks ago, on an obscure climate-change blog, a retired government scientist named John Bates blasted his former boss on an esoteric point having to do with archiving temperature data.

It was little more than lingering workplace bad blood, said Dr. Bates’s former co-workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Dr. Bates had felt he deserved his boss’s job at NOAA, they said, not the demotion he received.

“He’s retaliating. It’s like grade school,” said Glenn Rutledge, a former physical scientist at NOAA who worked with Dr. Bates.

But in what seems like a remarkable example of office politics gone horribly wrong, within days the accusations were amplified and sensationalized — in the pages of the British tabloid The Mail on Sunday — inciting a global furor among climate-change deniers.


Link
Quoting 109. FirstCoastMan:

Hurricanefran what does that post show on 89 and what does that mean?

It's a projected shear anomaly map for the peak of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. CFS showing near normal shear throughout most of the Atlantic despite its projection of a strong El Niño forming.
Quoting 125. HurricaneFan:


It's a projected shear anomaly map for the peak of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. CFS showing near normal shear throughout most of the Atlantic despite its projection of a strong El Niño forming.


Well that is interesting. Normal shear, hot water off the eastern seaboard, what could possibly go wrong?

Cheers
Qazulight



its Tuesday
NWS Bay Area @NWSBayArea 8 min ago
Highest rainfall total this past week across CA and NV was Mining Ridge on the Big Sur coast with 14.91" the past 7 days.
Levee breach forcing evacuations in San Joaquin County halted | The Modesto Bee
An evacuation was ordered Monday night by San Joaquin County after a report of a levee breach in a rural area southwest of Manteca.

The breach was eventually halted, the county’s Office of Emergency Services reported at 8:45 p.m.

The order to the roughly 500 people in the area with mostly farms and ranches was issued at 7:16 p.m.

It occurred two miles to the west of Airport Way and Perrin Road.

The evacuation area is Woodward Avenue on the north – Union Road on the East, to Avenue D, and then Airport Way is the rest of the east border, according to the OES.

An evacuation center has been set up at the Lathrop Community Center at 15552 5th Street in Lathrop. Small pets can be taken to the Manteca Animal Shelter at 115 E. Wetmore St.

Workers with the Reclamation District, San Joaquin County and the Department of Water Resources are working to stabilize the situation. The damaged levee is on the east side of the San Joaquin River, so water is moving north and east, the OES reported.

The City of Ripon issued a release saying none of its residents would be affected.
Are you getting flooded out Ped?
Widespread flooding hits Indonesian capital
Yahoo News / AFP - Feb 21.

Jakarta hit by floods due to heavy overnight rain (w/videos)
The Straits Times - Feb 21.
136. MahFL
SAC area has 21 river gauges in flood stage, was 15 earlier today.
Thankfully , a lot less rain fll than the models predicted here in northern CA, but there was a lot nonetheless. Very gusty winds tonight.
Interesting and informative piece on the Yolo Bypass from the California WaterBlog. Has some good graphics and videos (recommend the 'snow geese in a rice field' video - it's rather mesmerizing):

Yolo Bypass: the inland sea of Sacramento

Posted on February 20, 2017, by UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences


A flooded Yolo Bypass, flowing much less than capacity. Photo taken by Carson Jeffres on January 26, 2017. (View looking south at Interstate 5 west of Woodland, in the distance is Interstate 80 between Davis and Sacramento)

By Megan Nguyen

Land or Sea? The recent rains early this year brought much needed relief from the five-year drought in California. Reservoirs are full, mountains are covered with snow, and flood control structures are being used, some for the first time since 2006. Interstate 80 causeway commuters frequently, though perhaps unknowingly, witness one of the most important floodplains in California - the Yolo Bypass is now filled with water as far as the eye can see.

The recent events at Oroville Dam help highlight the Yolo Bypass' vital role in flood protection for the Sacramento area. Despite the risk of flooding from the potential failure of Oroville Dam's emergency spillway last week, flood control managers and experts emphasized the limited risk to the Sacramento area. The Bypass was a big reason why communities near Sacramento didn't experience the same risk as those closer to the dam. Understanding the Bypass helps explain why it functions so well in our regional flood control strategy. But it also emphasizes the scale of protection needed for a low-lying area like Sacramento.

Read more
Price of coal has doubled from $37 dollars a ton to $81 reducing its "cost effectiveness" for power generation.
Quoting 140. TechnoCaveman:

Price of coal has doubled from $37 dollars a ton to $81 reducing its "cost effectiveness" for power generation.



Hope you are not going to buy any at your prices.......

Thermal Coal CAPP USD/st
40.00

Link
Somalia Faces Unprecedented Drought

BURAO, SOMALILAND —
Even the hyenas won't eat the carcasses of Mohamed Aden Guleid's sheep, goats and camels, which litter the landscape in Somalia's northwest Somaliland region.

There is too little meat on their bones because of a devastating drought.

“I had 550 of these livestock; now only 50 of my livestock remain,” he said. “My family contains 10 members, and I must provide for them.”

Herds of animals are dying across Somalia following two failed rainy seasons. Here in Somaliland, at least 40 percent of goats and sheep have perished, amounting to more than 10 million animals.


Link
Good Morning Folks. Here is the Conus forecast and current look; and the rain and snow keeps coming..................




On the TCFP below as to a possible storm off the coast of Florida, a model must be picking up on developing the frontal remnant of the front digging into the Gulf; not going to happen because of "Winter" shear levels across the Atlantic basin and the Gulf:



Tasmanian kelp forests dying as water warms, dive operator Mick Baron says

There are fears Tasmania's giant kelp forests are almost extinct.

Once strewn all along the east coast of Tasmania, the kelp has now been completely wiped out in that area, according to dive tour operator Mick Baron.

Mr Baron was among a number of stakeholders who gave evidence at a Senate inquiry in Hobart on Tuesday.

He described the situation as the disappearance of a natural reserve.

"The devastation of the forest is I believe ... a national disaster," he said.


Link
And the convective outlook; the jet is not positioned across Florida today in accordance with the possibility that we were discussing at the end of last week in terms of some possible severe weather for the State today and tomorrow; good news and we could use the rain. 



Lake Berryessa flows steadily into Glory Hole…
The Mercury News, PUBLISHED: February 21, 2017 at 3:28 am | UPDATED: February 21, 2017 at 4:25 am


Feb 20: Drone Captures 'Glory Hole' Spillway at Lake Berryessa Overflowing
Impacts of mass coral die-off on Indian Ocean reefs revealed

Warming seawaters, caused by climate change and extreme climatic events, threaten the stability of tropical coral reefs, with potentially devastating implications for many reef species and the human communities that reefs support.

New research by the University of Exeter shows that increased surface ocean temperatures during the strong 2016 El Niño led to a major coral die-off event in the Maldives, and that this has caused reef growth rates to collapse. They also found that the rates at which some reefs species, in particular parrotfish, are eroding the reefs had increased following this coral die-off event.


Link
Will finally note that the continued plume of moisture into California is an amazing thing to watch; you can also see the continued snow fall off the tops of the Sierra Nevada range:

Image result for map sierra nevada mountains
Quoting 106. galvestonhurricane:

San Antonio tornado survey (Bexar/Comal Co):

Link

Still waiting on the NWS report for the two preliminary EF-2 tornadoes in Williamson County near Thrall, TX.



Here is the report. Thankfully no deaths. It was a long night to say the very least. As a precaution, we ended up hunkering down in our safe room when the second warning alarmed and when the calls and texts from code red came through. Thankfully the cell that triggered this stayed about four miles to our south as it headed N.E.

The Thrall Tornado Damage survey has just been released by the National Weather Service.
...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 02/20/17 TORNADO EVENTS IN EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY...
.OVERVIEW...STORM SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED BY NWS METEOROLOGISTS ACROSS EASTERN
WILLIAMSON COUNTY...PRIMARILY IN AREAS SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 79 FROM SOUTH OF
TAYLOR TO THRALL...AND JUST NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THRALL. THESE REPORTS SHOULD
STILL BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AND SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE TO THE TORNADO
PATHS AND STRENGTHS OVER THE COMING DAYS. OTHER DAMAGE SURVEYS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
.THRALL TORNADO...
Rating: EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind: 118 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 9.4 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 200 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0
Start Date: Feb 20 2017
Start Time: 1225 AM CST
Start Location: 5 WSW Thrall / Williamson County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 30.5501 / -97.3594
End Date: Feb 20 2017
End Time: 1233 AM CST
End Location: 4 ENE Thrall / Williamson County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 30.6312 / -97.2436
Survey_Summary: This tornado was the northern one of a pair on near parallel
tracks a few miles south of U.S. Highway 79. Damage was sporadic...but
concentrated when it occurred. The most significant damage was to a metal
building system home...at least five other single family homes...and 12
railroad cars blown off the tracks east of Thrall. The train cars may have
also been affected by strong straight-line winds.
.NOACK TORNADO...
Rating: EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind: 112 mph
Path Length /Statute/: 9.54 Miles
Path Width /Maximum/: 100 Yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0
Start Date: Feb 20 2017
Start Time: 1228 AM CST
Start Location: 5 SW Thrall / Williamson County / TX
Start Lat/Lon: 30.5443 / -97.3525
End Date: Feb 20 2017
End Time: 1231 AM CST
End Location: Thrall / Williamson County / TX
End Lat/Lon: 30.6816 / -97.2429
Survey_Summary: This tornado was the southern one of a pair on near parallel
tracks a few miles south of U.S. Highway 79. Damage was sporadic...but
concentrated when it occurred. The most significant damage was to a 3-bin grain
storage facility...where the bins were completely destroyed and swept from their
foundations. Additional damage occurred to an extension of Christ Lutheran
Church of Noack on FM 112...where the walls were bolted to the foundation.
EF Scale: The enhanced fujita scale classifies
tornadoes into the following categories.
EF0...Weak......65 TO 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 TO 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 TO 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 TO 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 TO 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph
Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
chance pending final review of the events and publication in
NWS Storm Data.


Researcher's 1979 Arctic Model Predicted Current Sea Ice Demise, Holds Lessons for Future

Claire Parkinson, now a senior climate change scientist at NASA, first began studying global warming's impact on Arctic sea ice in 1978, when she was a promising new researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Back then, what she and a colleague found was not only groundbreaking, it pretty accurately predicted what is happening now in the Arctic, as sea ice levels break record low after record low.

Parkinson's study, which was published in 1979, found that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from preindustrial levels would cause the Arctic to become ice-free in late summer months, probably by the middle of the 21st century. It hasn't been ice-free in more than 100,000 years.

Although carbon dioxide levels have not yet doubled, the ice is rapidly disappearing. This record melt confirms the outlook from Parkinson's 1979 model.

"It was one of these landmark papers," said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. "She was the first to put together the thermodynamic sea ice model."


Link
Re: 141. nrtiwlnvragn and 140. TechnoCaveman:

He might be referring to Indonesian coal?


(Source-EIA)


(Source-CME Group)
Quoting 125. HurricaneFan:


It's a projected shear anomaly map for the peak of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. CFS showing near normal shear throughout most of the Atlantic despite its projection of a strong El Niño forming.
I would wait till after the SB period, and see what kind of Nino if any appears, that is pretty alarming if that forecast were to come true, given how warm the water ha been. Now all we need is for a most environment for the MDR and Caribbean, should make for some interesting times this summer.
looks like an active period a/t/m in the S Pac t/c Bart looking impressive as well as two others candidates
EPA Official, After Years of Work to Thwart the Agency's Mission, Returns to Carry Out Trump Agenda
A key member of Donald Trump's transition team, David Schnare returns to the agency where he worked for 33 years, while also striving to hamstring some of its work.

Link
Multiple locations are forecast to break Wisconsin's highest February temperature tomorrow.
Quoting 156. Snacker2:

Multiple locations are forecast to break Wisconsin's highest February temperature tomorrow.


The last 30 days of new daily records ...........

Max high ........ 3119
Min high ......... 3518

Max low ........ 4
Min low ........ 4

Link
Quoting 152. LAbonbon:

Re: 141. nrtiwlnvragn and 140. TechnoCaveman:

He might be referring to Indonesian coal?


(Source-EIA)


(Source-CME Group)


Maybe Australian?

Quoting 156. Snacker2:

Multiple locations are forecast to break Wisconsin's highest February temperature tomorrow.
in my region I am expecting temps near 18c/65f+ south central Ontario
February heatwave
Here is the current global rain look through this morning; the US looks to be about tied with South America at the moment:






This was written up this way...

EF0...Weak......65 TO 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 TO 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 TO 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 TO 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 TO 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph


I prefer....

EF0...Weak......65 TO 85 mph
EF1...Moderate......86 TO 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 TO 135 mph
EF3...Very Strong....136 TO 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 TO 200 mph
EF5...Catastrophic...>200 mph
Quoting 163. 999Ai2016:

NWS Sacramento (4 h ago):

Powerful winds for Sierra crest! Preliminary Mesowest data-gusts 199mph Ward Mt. (SUMAM 8643 ft), 193mph Sierra Crest (SIBSV 8700 ft).
That is a steady jet speed (without gusts) of "151 knots" on this chart just before reaching the range:

Quoting 153. NativeSun:

I would wait till after the SB period, and see what kind of Nino if any appears, that is pretty alarming if that forecast were to come true, given how warm the water ha been. Now all we need is for a most environment for the MDR and Caribbean, should make for some interesting times this summer.

Yeah, waters in the western Atlantic continue to run well above average with SSTs near 25C along parts of the Gulf Stream off the SE coast, just below the threshold for TC development, and it is only February. SSTs have also reached 26C in the Bay of Campeche. This SST pattern I feel has been responsible for the recent uptick in preseason Atlantic activity the past few years. I wouldn't be overly surprised if we got another May storm this year in a similar location:
Research Ship To Be Purposely Frozen In Arctic Ice To Drift Across The North Pole

In what is thought to be the single biggest Arctic research expedition ever, a team of scientists is planning on getting a research vessel purposely trapped in sea ice and letting it drift over the North Pole. The plan is to study the Arctic in vast detail, in order to better understand what exactly is driving the dramatic climatic changes seen in the region over recent years.

The 120-meter (400 foot) research vessel, the Polarstern, will hopefully set sail in the summer of 2019, and then spend the next year on its 2,414-kilometer (1,500 miles) trip, as it moves with the drifting sea ice across the Arctic. Involving over 50 institutions from 14 different countries, researchers will set up camps and mount expeditions from the ship out onto the sea ice to take measurements that have never been possible before.


Link
Today's weather in the Houston area is certainly a big change from yesterday's rains. It is currently 66 degrees with about a 50% cloud coverage, a light breeze out of the NW and lots of sunshine. The clouds are suppose to give way to nearly clear skies, even more sunshine and warming to 75 degrees. A great day to take the T-Tops off of the Camaro and head to the Kemah Boardwalk where I will meet my daughter, my son-in-law and my great granddaughter to spend the rest of the day. Perhaps the Boardwalk Beast will be in operation as well. It should prove to be a great day for me and I hope that everyone's day turns out to be as nice as I expect mine to be.
Quoting 169. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

Today's weather in the Houston area is certainly a big change from yesterday's rains. It is currently 66 degrees with about a 50% cloud coverage, a light breeze out of the NW and lots of sunshine. The clouds are suppose to give way to nearly clear skies, even more sunshine and warming to 75 degrees. A great day to take the T-Tops off of the Camaro and head to the Kemah Boardwalk where I will meet my daughter, my son-in-law and my great granddaughter to spend the rest of the day. Perhaps the Boardwalk Beast will be in operation as well. It should prove to be a great day for me and I hope that everyone's day turns out to be as nice as I expect mine to be.


Enjoy your "Summer" Day............................................


Quoting 168. RobertWC:

Research Ship To Be Purposely Frozen In Arctic Ice To Drift Across The North Pole

In what is thought to be the single biggest Arctic research expedition ever, a team of scientists is planning on getting a research vessel purposely trapped in sea ice and letting it drift over the North Pole. The plan is to study the Arctic in vast detail, in order to better understand what exactly is driving the dramatic climatic changes seen in the region over recent years.

The 120-meter (400 foot) research vessel, the Polarstern, will hopefully set sail in the summer of 2019, and then spend the next year on its 2,414-kilometer (1,500 miles) trip, as it moves with the drifting sea ice across the Arctic. Involving over 50 institutions from 14 different countries, researchers will set up camps and mount expeditions from the ship out onto the sea ice to take measurements that have never been possible before.


Link

They also did that drifting in the ice pack on the Fram in 1893.
That was Fridjoff Nansen, also Amundsen, etc.
If the cloud cover from this a.m.'s rain lifts and StL gets near that 75 forecast shown in 170), they'll break the consecutive days 70 or above record & I believe also tie most days at 70 or above in Feb. w/ at least 3 more to go before cools off considerably for the Grand Parade in Soulard Sat. morning/afternoon. TV met said he's pretty sure will still be their #1 warmest Feb. Yesterday's 79 broke their 78 record from '16.

A little to the NE in S C IL, still overcast but not raining at moment. Everything was wet this a.m., but nothing measurable in my gauge. Thought the green & yellow to our S might get pushed up earlier, but now looks like dry air from NW pushing in, keeping it S, though surface still shows ESE around 5mph. 58 & 29.94". 1 minute short of 11 hrs of sunlight today & 6 mos. from the full eclipse.
The "puny humans theory" takes another hit -

Gabon's elephants are being decimated by poachers

"A 78 to 81 percent loss in a single decade from one of the largest, most remote protected areas in Central Africa is a startling warning that no place is safe from poaching," said researcher John Poulsen.


Link
On a side note, that frontal trof in the Gulf headed into Florida looks very impressive:

Quoting 172. ChiThom:

That was Fridjoff Nansen, also Amundsen, etc.


I'd much rather be on the Polarstern ..............

Quoting 146. weathermanwannabe:

And the convective outlook; the jet is not positioned across Florida today in accordance with the possibility that we were discussing at the end of last week in terms of some possible severe weather for the State today and tomorrow; good news and we could use the rain. 






Not much instability either, temps will be warm aloft.
Quoting 177. Jedkins01:



Not much instability either, temps will be warm aloft.


Which is a good thing for Florida at the moment.....I think that we lucked out in terms of the jet missing us as well................It's pretty much a "warm" front coming through based upon the warm temps behind it, and out in front, as you have noted...............Not much of a winter front at all.


Quoting 139. 999Ai2016:




Not sure why there would be any probability displayed. There will be surface low developing in the eastern gulf but it will be due to Q-vector divergence and diffluent flow on the lower right quadrant of the upper cutoff low that will be crossing from LA to FL.

In other words, the surface low is forming in the same way any other non-tropical low would, and won't have anything to do with tropical development. The probability of tropical formation in the gulf is essentially zero for that reason.
Quoting 178. weathermanwannabe:



Which is a good thing for Florida at the moment.....I think that we lucked out in terms of the jet missing us as well................It's pretty much a "warm" front coming through based upon the warm temps behind it as you have noted...............Not much of a winter front at all.





Yeah basically no airmass change behind it other than some drier air, but certainly not cooler air. A lot of rain and no severe weather, all around a great scenario.
it continues........
https://caymannewsservice.com/2017/02/cayman-faci ng-long-term-drought/
we knew something was changing
and with cold fronts looking as weird as this and with this much dry air its going to get worse
ChiThom -
Thanks for pointing that out , The Fram one one of the great wooden ships ever built , it's a hell of a strory -



Nansen's ambition was to explore the Arctic farther north than anyone else. To do that, he would have to deal with a problem that many sailing on the polar ocean had encountered before him: the freezing ice could crush a ship. Nansen's idea was to build a ship that could survive the pressure, not by pure strength, but because it would be of a shape designed to let the ice push the ship up, so it would "float" on top of the ice.

The rudder and propeller were designed to be retracted. The ship was also carefully insulated to allow the crew to live on board for up to five years. The ship also included a windmill, which ran a generator to provide electric power for lighting by electric arc lamps.[2]
Initially, Fram was fitted with a steam engine. Prior to Amundsen's expedition to the South Pole in 1910, the engine was replaced with a diesel engine, a first for polar exploration vessels.
Quoting 175. weathermanwannabe:

On a side note, that frontal trof in the Gulf headed into Florida looks very impressive:




We sure need the rain here in Fl... especially in S. Florida.

Gosh, I see I've been a member since Dec, 1969 when I was stationed in Greenland ;^)
That surface low is currently developing over Louisiana and starting to dip into the Upper Gulf.


Avalanche Warning, Hydrologic Statement
Issued: 6:36 AM PST Feb. 21, 2017 – National Weather Service

The following message is transmitted at the request of the Forest
service Sierra avalanche center.

The Forest service Sierra avalanche center has continued a
backcountry avalanche warning.

* Timing... in effect through 7 am Wednesday morning.

* Affected area... for the Sierra Nevada mountains of California
and Nevada, from Yuba Pass to Ebbetts Pass, including the Lake
Tahoe basin.

* Avalanche danger... high avalanche danger will exist at all
elevations.

* Reason/impacts... a strong atmospheric river storm is impacting
the area. Wind slab and storm slab avalanche problems will be
very likely at all elevations. Natural and human triggered
avalanches are expected.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Avalanches may run long distances, into flat areas, and can run
into mature forests.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Consult www.Sierraavalanchecenter.Org or www.Avalanche.Org for
more detailed information.

Similar avalanche danger may exist at locations outside the
coverage area of this or any avalanche center.
"Wooden ships, iron men "..............

They're restoring the Gjøa as well

The Polar Ship Gjøa

The Gjøa was the first ship to be sailed through the entire Northwest Passage. Roald Amundsen and his six companions accomplished this in 1903-06. The Gjøa belongs today to the Fram Museum. An extension to house the ship was opened in 2013.


DOOMSDAY 2020 - Arctic Methane Melting NOW

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMZbvrs51cg&t=8s
The Arctic has been at Doomcon 4 for the past several years; it looks be on pace to hit 5 by 2020 at the current 2016-2017 pace.





Quoting 187. WU-216742:

DOOMSDAY 2020 - Arctic Methane Melting NOW


Published on Apr 21, 2014
We MUST stop the Ionospheric Heaters, and chemtrails! Instead of spraying poison, the chemtrail planes should be used to fertilize the oceans with iron dust. This will trigger plankton blooms, which will remove


WU-
Please explain this , it's the bomber stream headed for Germany over 70 years ago....



National Weather Service Reno NV
748 AM PST Tue Feb 21 2017

Issued 342 AM PST Tue Feb 21 2017

SHORT TERM...

The powerful storm has brought some of the most extreme Sierra
ridge winds seen in many years, with peak gusts of 199 and 193 mph
at Alpine and Squaw Summits respectively around 11 pm Monday
night. The highest sustained wind was 148 mph at Alpine. Currently
the winds are "only" gusting between 130-140 mph.

Winds in the advisory and warning areas have been erratic--an
isolated gust of 71 mph occurred at Reno airport shortly after 1
am near the edge of a convective shower band. Considering the
strong ridge winds still occurring and the banded nature of the
precip pushing over the Sierra, we will keep the wind headlines up
from I-80 southward.


New footage shows crack in Larsen C Ice Shelf
British Antarctic Survey - Feb 21.

British Antarctic Survey (BAS) recently captured this video footage of a huge crack in the Larsen C Ice Shelf, on the Antarctic Peninsula. Currently a huge iceberg (...) looks set to break off Larsen C Ice Shelf, which is more than twice the size of Wales. Satellite observations from February 2017 show the growing crack in the ice shelf which suggests that an iceberg with an area of more than 5,000 km2 is likely to calve soon.

(...) The largest icebergs known have all calved from ice shelves. In 1956, a huge iceberg of roughly 32,000 km2 - bigger than Belgium - was spotted in the Ross Sea by a US Navy icebreaker. However, since there were no satellites in orbit at this point, its exact size was not verified. In 1986, a section of the Filchner ice shelf roughly the size of Wales calved - but this iceberg broke into three pieces almost immediately. The largest iceberg recorded by satellites calved from the Ross ice shelf in 2001, and was roughly the size of Jamaica at 11,000 km2. (...)
Quoting 188. weathermanwannabe:

The Arctic has been at Doomcon 4 for the past several years; it looks be on pace to hit 5 by 2020 at the current 2016-2017 pace.








True, but not because of the "Chemtrail Claptrap Hypothesis".



SF Bay Area is in the right entrance region of a 175 mph plus jet max with two converging branches of the jet offshore. The northern colder branch will drift south, increasing instability for showers and a dropping snow level in the Sierra. Cold systems are forecast by the weekend again, but some model runs are showing yet another subtropical plume being entrained.
Quoting 164. weathermanwannabe:

That is a steady jet speed (without gusts) of "151 knots" on this chart just before reaching the range:



The jet is far above the Sierra crest, running around 35,000 feet altitude more or less, so wasn't directly responsible for those strong winds. The proximity of high speed jet winds plays some role in that it enhances winds beneath it by pulling them toward the jet axis and max. In this instance, there was already a strong low level jet which was being squeezed, and so accelerated, as it climbed up and over the Sierra crest. The upper jet probably added to the acceleration.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2-19-2017; Tropical Moisure Flowing Into Central & So. CA on Jet Stream

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMyrPih3GQ0&spfre load=5
Quoting 189. RobertWC:



The modern turbojet engine is one of the most efficient, clean-burning internal combustion engines ever put into service. Particulates in the exhaust are practically nil. WWII aircraft engines, as good as they were for the era, are a different story altogether.

By their nature, carbureted or mechanically fuel injected, reciprocating engines do not burn the fuel perfectly, they are often very good, but not perfect. This results in unburned hydrocarbons and carbon particulates. Also, such engines are not run with a perfect mixture of fuel and air. That is, they are run slightly fuel rich. This is because a lean mixture tends to burn much hotter causing possible damage, often terminal, to the engine. Better to err on the side of rich than lean. Those familiar with engine tuning know about this. And a rich mixture, even slightly so as in a properly tuned engine, produces carbon particulates. Anyone who has ever had an engine with a stuck choke has seen the effects of an extremely rich mixture- black smoke.

Further, WWII aircraft engines used prodigious amounts of oil. In part to lubricate the cylinder walls and rings to avoid piston seizure. This was particularly true in high-performance radial engines where the piston/cylinder wall clearance is greater than in a water-cooled engine. The oil would wind up getting into the combustion chamber and was exhausted as smoke. Or, blow-by gases got into the crankcase and were expelled through a breather as smoke.

What we see today versus the older WW2 planes are NOT normal, that some particulate matter is being injected into the exhaust gases of the jets to make the contrails persistent. If you research solar radiation management or geoengineering you get far more scientific results.
Thank you frank727 for your responding to RobertWC. I was going to explain the high bypass turbofan engine to him, but you said it much better than I could have. Thanks for your expertise, much appreciated. Keep exposing the truth, friend.
Quoting 182. RobertWC:

ChiThom -
Thanks for pointing that out , The Fram one one of the great wooden ships ever built , it's a hell of a strory -



Nansen's ambition was to explore the Arctic farther north than anyone else. To do that, he would have to deal with a problem that many sailing on the polar ocean had encountered before him: the freezing ice could crush a ship. Nansen's idea was to build a ship that could survive the pressure, not by pure strength, but because it would be of a shape designed to let the ice push the ship up, so it would "float" on top of the ice.

The rudder and propeller were designed to be retracted. The ship was also carefully insulated to allow the crew to live on board for up to five years. The ship also included a windmill, which ran a generator to provide electric power for lighting by electric arc lamps.[2]
Initially, Fram was fitted with a steam engine. Prior to Amundsen's expedition to the South Pole in 1910, the engine was replaced with a diesel engine, a first for polar exploration vessels.



I was lucky to inherit an original copy of the book from my father-in-law, "Farthest North" a two-volume set that includes the maps. Nansen was a scientist and this was a scientific exploration, with daily measurements faithfully recorded. NAnsen didn't stay with the ship when it was stuck in the pack ice, because of boredom, and the possibility that they would not ever get to the North Pole, he and his companion went out on foot with skis and sled dogs to attempt to get to the Pole while the rest of the twelve-man crew stayed on board.
They failed to reach the Pole, and the dogs died one by one and were fed to the remaining dogs. The men survived a harrowing experience in the cold Arctic, eating Polar Bear and a walrus, traveling on sledges and hand-made kayaks, almost getting lost when they both forgot to wind their watches on a particular difficult day, and the had to make their best guess on the time, so they could navigate back to civilization without getting lost at sea! Eventually the did find another explorer, after three years away from home, and were soon re-united with their ship, which had just got lose from the sea ice about the same time. I think they re-united around Tromso, Norway.
It was a great ship, built ad hock by an older, well-known ship builder, and below the water-line the wooden ship was covered in a silver sheet so as not to get stuck in the ice. The windmill generator failed after about a year, and they took the batteries apart to make other things.
The Fram Straight and Amundsen Sea are named after the ship and a member of the crew, respectively.
When the generator produced power, the shipmates called it "a mill wind". The bearings were made of wood!
Nansen was the one who popularized skiing in Norway, before the great adventure, and also he was an experienced survivalist in the wild. He came from a well-to-do family, and after the trip he wrote the book, which made him rich. Later, he created a group that helped survivors from the war, as a volunteer, which reminds me of Portlight.