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No Rest: Another Round of Intense Rains Heading for Central and Northern California

By: Bob Henson 4:08 PM GMT on February 19, 2017

While southern California tries to dry out from Friday’s watery onslaught, yet another atmospheric river will be pointed at central and northern California from late Sunday through Monday, exacerbating the woes of what’s already been a record-wet winter to date across the northern Sierra. Precipitation totals of 10” or more are possible early this week across parts of the Feather River watershed feeding into Lake Oroville. This is bound to push lake levels toward a new spike even as water continues pouring from the lake’s damaged main spillway. Fortunately, the lake level was down almost 50 feet on Saturday from its overflow state last Sunday, February 12, when the emergency spillway showed signs of failure that prompted the evacuation of more than 180,000 people. By Saturday, the amount of water in the reservoir had dropped to 81% of capacity. This greatly reduces the odds that the impending storm could bring the lake back near capacity.

While officials will be monitoring the Oroville situation and continuing their spillway repair work, many other dams and levees across the region will come under increasing stress as this week’s rains fall atop already-saturated ground. “Given record wetness to date, Monday #AtmosphericRiver will be stress test for CA water infrastructure,” noted Daniel Swain (California Weather Blog).


Figure 1. Precipitation forecast for the 3-day period from 4:00 am PST Sunday, February 19 to Wednesday, February 22, 2017. Amounts in California amay peak at more than 10” at higher elevations of the Bay Area and in the northern Sierra. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Now it’s the Bay Area’s turn
The impending storm is likely to pack a big punch for city dwellers from San Francisco to Sacramento. Models have been varying on the location and movement of the atmospheric river, or AR, which is expected to push across the Monterey area late Sunday and gradually work its way northward into Monday. The AR’s orientation over time is the critical variable in how much rain falls across the heavily populated corridor from San Francisco to Sacramento. Although Friday's storm caused widespread local havoc in parts of Southern California, it brought a bit less rain than feared to the immediate Los Angeles area (2.01” in downtown Los Angeles), as the main moisture channel ended up focused just a bit further west. Santa Barbara’s airport experienced its wettest February day in 77 years of recordkeeping with 4.16” on Friday, beating out 3.97” from Feb. 8, 1985.

The AR heading into the Bay Area late Sunday is expected to be carrying at least 1.25” to 1.5” of precipitable water (the amount of moisture in the column of air above a particular spot). The higher end of this range is seen on average once every 5 to 10 years in the area, noted the Sacramento office of the National Weather Service. Overall, the southwest-northeast-oriented AR will lift northward with a warm front late Sunday into early Monday, then sag southward with the subsequent cold front later on Monday. Between the rich moisture feed and strong atmospheric dynamics, the potential exists for totals of 3” or more of rain at lower elevations--even in the Bay Area cities--should the AR stall for very long over a particular spot. The GFS model has been particularly bullish on the potential for very heavy amounts. In those places where the AR shifts north or south fairly quickly, totals may end up closer to 2” or less. Official forecasts are calling for 1.5” - 2.5” in the Sacramento area and 2” - 5” in and near San Francisco. As usual, much higher amounts can be expected at higher elevations, and flooding and mudslides will again be a distinct threat. High winds will topple vulnerable trees in increasingly wet soils.

Longtime Bay Area forecaster Jan Null (Golden Gate Weather Services, @ggweather) expects that Oakland could see 3”, with 6” - 8” in the Coast Range above 2000 feet. “I think this will be a memorable President’s Day Storm,” Null told me. “There will be major problems in the swath from the Bay Area to Lake Tahoe. Lots of slides, trees down, and localized flooding. I am actually recommending people stay home on Monday.”

What are the records to beat?
California precipitation is notoriously variable, and we’re fortunate to have records extending well back into the 19th century to remind us of this. Even though climate change is boosting the intensity of extreme rainfall in many parts of the world, most of the heaviest 1-, 2-, and 3-day rainfall events in central California occurred before the year 1900, as shown below. Records go all the way back to 1877 in Sacramento and 1849 in downtown San Francisco.

Maximum 1-day rainfall
Sacramento: 5.28” (Apr. 20, 1880)
San Francisco: 5.44” (Nov. 5, 1994)

Maximum 2-day rainfall
Sacramento: 8.37” (Apr. 20-21, 1880)
San Francisco downtown: 7.90” (Dec. 19-20, 1866)

Maximum 3-day rainfall
Sacramento: 8.81” (Apr. 19-21, 1880)
San Francisco downtown: 8.85” (Dec. 18-20, 1866)

Only a dozen two-day rainfalls have topped 5” in San Francisco, and just three of those have occurred in the last century: 6.78” (Jan. 5, 1982), 6.76” (Nov. 5-6, 1994), and 5.68” (Nov. 4-5, 1994). Only three calendar days have seen more than 4”.



Figure 2. A before-and-after shot of Cachuma Reservoir, located north of Santa Barbara. The amount of water in Cachuma Lake has more than tripled since the start of February. Located on the leeward side of the Santa Ynez Mountains, Cachuma Reservoir often misses out on big precipitation events, and drought relief had been limited in the area till the last couple of weeks. As recently as late January, the reservoir held only 9% of its capacity and 13% of its historical average for that date. As of Saturday, the lake held 32% of its capacity. Image credit: Santa Barbara County, @countyofsb


Figure 3. Water expert Peter Gleick (Pacific Institute) tweeted this astonishing image on Saturday: “In an average 12-mo California #water year, northern CA gets 50 inches of rain. The first half of the 2017 water year has produced 70 inches.” On average, northern California has received about 65% of its water-year total by this date--about half of what’s actually fallen this water year. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources, annotated by Peter Gleick, @PeterGleick.

Get set for one of the warmest winter weeks on record in the heart of the Midwest
St. Cloud, Minnesota, hit 59°F on Saturday--tying the warmest reading observed in St. Cloud during any February in 123 years of recordkeeping (that record occurred just last year, on Feb. 27, 2016). International Falls also tied its February record on Saturday with 58°F, previously set on Feb. 22, 2000. A number of Midwestern cities set or tied their second-warmest February reading on Saturday, including:

Detroit, MI: 69°F (monthly record 70°F on Feb. 11, 1999)
Flint, MI: 65°F (monthly record 68°F on Feb. 11, 1999)
Minneapolis, MN: 63°F (monthly record 64°F on Feb. 26, 1896)
Milwaukee, WI: 67°F (monthly record 68°F on Feb. 11, 1999)
Sault Ste. Marie, MI: 49°F (monthly record 50°F on Feb. 16, 1921)

Saturday’s warmth is a harbinger of a very mild week to come for the heart of the Midwest, especially across snow-starved northern Illinois. As reported by Chicago weathercaster Tom Skilling, the city’s longest winter period without a one-inch snowfall in records dating back to 1884 was a 64-day streak that occurred twice: Dec. 3, 1905, to Feb. 4, 1906, and Dec. 23, 1953, to Feb. 24, 1953. Chicago’s last inch of snow fell on Dec. 17. With no snow in the forecast, the city’s snow-drought record will fall on Monday when the current streak hits 65 days. Other cities experiencing an unusual lack of snow this winter thus far, as noted by Illinois state climatologist Dr. Jim Angel:

• Champaign: 4.6” (record is 6.7 inches in 1953-54)
• Springfield: 5.7” (record is 5.8 inches in 1953-54)
• Peoria: 9.5” (record is 7.8 inches in 1965-66, 1994-95)

The extreme lack of snow is helping an already-mild pattern maximize its potential for warmth at ground level. Rockford, IL, cracked 60°F on both Friday and Saturday, and the forecast is for Sunday through Wednesday to do the same, making for a six-day streak. No winter (Dec/Feb/Jan) has ever brought Rockford more than three 60-degree days in a row. Chicago may also manage a 6-day streak of 60-degree days, which would break its longest winter streak of 5 days set on Dec. 2-6, 1998. Records extend back to 1872 in Chicago and 1893 in Rockford. Even Detroit could rack up a solid week of temperatures breaking the 50°F mark, which would be just one day short of its record for any February.

We’ll be back on Monday with more on the California rains, including the dousing that caused several deaths and massive disruption across the Los Angeles-Santa Barbara area.

Bob Henson


Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Today weather: The system that hit SoCal has split. The southern low is creating (at present) a slight risk for severe including tornadoes across TX and into OK. Stay tuned...
New important study describes how warming is already causing sizable reductions in Colorado River flow.

The 21st century Colorado River hot drought and implications for the future

Bradley Udall, Jonathan Overpeck

Accepted manuscript online: 17 February 2017

DOI: 10.1002/2016WR019638

Abstract

Between 2000 and 2014, annual Colorado River flows averaged 19% below the 1906-1999 average, the worst 15-year drought on record. At least one-sixth to one-half (average at one-third) of this loss is due to unprecedented temperatures (0.9°C above the 1906-99 average), confirming model-based analysis that continued warming will likely further reduce flows. Whereas it is virtually certain that warming will continue with additional emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, there has been no observed trend towards greater precipitation in the Colorado Basin, nor are climate models in agreement that there should be a trend. Moreover, there is a significant risk of decadal and multidecadal drought in the coming century, indicating that any increase in mean precipitation will likely be offset during periods of prolonged drought. Recently published estimates of Colorado River flow sensitivity to temperature combined with a large number of recent climate model-based temperature projections indicate that continued business-as-usual warming will drive temperature-induced declines in river flow, conservatively -20% by mid-century and -35% by end–century, with support for losses exceeding -30% at mid-century and -55% at end-century. Precipitation increases may moderate these declines somewhat, but to date no such increases are evident and there is no model agreement on future precipitation changes. These results, combined with the increasing likelihood of prolonged drought in the river basin, suggest that future climate change impacts on the Colorado River flows will be much more serious than currently assumed, especially if substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.


More information: Climate change is already sapping the Colorado River

A warming climate is already reducing the flow in the Colorado River, and the future risk is large, with a worst case of the river’s flow being cut in half by the end of the century, according to a new study from a pair of the region’s leading researchers.

Quoting 1. StormDrain:

Today weather: The system that hit SoCal has split. The southern low is creating (at present) a slight risk for severe including tornadoes across TX and into OK. Stay tuned...
WeAwhed! After I clicked "post comment," I got a "no such entry" message but the comment posted anyway. lol

Say La dee dah.
I know its a "too much rain, too soon" but for a drought stricken state, I hope the water can sink in. So much water has been pumped out. Land has risen due to reduced snow cap.

Improves drinking water quality and hydro electric output.

Just sad to see turbidity so high.
I see I'm not the only one with blog comment problems!
Already noted but Chicagoland and the upper Midwest are experiencing an extended heat wave for February.
I hope all the dams inCalifornia are going to be OK.
Thanks for your patience with the commenting issues this weekend. We'll work to resolve them ASAP.
Thanks for the new entry - and a good Sunday, everyone.

Town of Maxwell floods as worry about Oroville Dam shifts to creeks and canals
SacBee, February 19, 2017 6:11 AM



TTPW (Total Precipitable Water) East Pacific, with the Atmospheric River building up towards North Californa. Updating.
Sensible move:
California Farmers Use Floodwater to Replenish Aquifers
Climate Central, Published: February 17th, 2017
As dam managers were draining water from a Northern Californian reservoir this week to avert what could have been one of the worst flood disasters in the state’s history, Southern California farmer Don Cameron was doing something different with the watery winter excess.
Using a network of levees and irrigation gates, Cameron inundated the orchards, vineyards and vegetable and alfalfa fields of Terranova Ranch, a farm in Fresno County that he manages, using the power of gravity to drive water back into an ailing underground aquifer. ...



A vineyard deliberatedly flooded this week at Terranova Ranch. Credit: Don Cameron/Terranova Ranch
test desk top
Quoting 10. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

test desk top
Computer must work OK. :-)
kids up here walking around with t shirts and shorts
kicking soccer ball around
snow cover pretty much vanished the last 24 hrs
just a few banks from the plowing left
the rest has melted another 50 degree day today
Quoting 11. CaneFreeCR:

Computer must work OK. :-)
I have 2 desk tops 3 I phones 4 tablets on my network plus web cam and weather station as well 11 network items
A few bands of light rain have come thru this morning here in the SF bay Area, and the wind is picking up as the warm front approaches from offshore. Other than that, the blog entry says it all.

over the next month
bell Canada will be upgrading the service in the building
to full fiber optics and pull down in entire building
took them 3 weeks to do the building behind me
we are next on the list for upgrade

then I will be full wireless internet tv phone system super high speed

I will be able to watch tv outside in the parking lot in the bathroom or up on the roof no cables just a power source needed
Quoting 2. Xandra:

New important study describes how warming is already causing sizable reductions in Colorado River flow.



How long will it be before Colorado will be experiencing serious flooding, mud slides, dam overflows, etc. just like California?
Historic Rainfall and Floods in ColoradoSept. 13, 2013.
Cyclone Dineo devastates Zimbabwe
Daily News, Feb 19, 2017

Zimbabwe: Cyclone Dineo Brings Joy, Floods to City
Feb 19, 2017
Two of the city's (Bulawayo) five dams -- Mtshabezi and Upper Ncema --started spilling last week after hours of incessant rains pounded the region. Bulawayo City Council had stopped drawing water from Upper Ncema Dam on November 24 last year after water levels dropped to 1.59% of its capacity. The city was plunged into a water crisis that saw residents in some suburbs going for several days without the precious liquid. "The Upper Ncema Dam has reached the 100% mark and is now spilling," council tweeted on Friday. ...

Mberengwa should be declared a state of disaster as cyclone Dineo leaves a trail of destruction
by Stephen Jakes, 9 hours ago

South Africa:
Water dept says people are not saving water
The department says dam levels have decreased which means people are starting to relax and are not using water wisely as the department has been advising.
Eyewitness News, about 11 hours ago
... The department’s Mlimandlela Ndamase says tropical storm Dineo and flash floods are not necessarily assisting with dam levels. “The water restrictions remain the same but water usage has increased so we are no longer reaching the goal of 15 percent and are sitting at 12 percent and 10 percent in some areas.”
From the Huffington Post:

GOP Wants NASA To Stop Worrying About Earth And Focus On Space

There are talks of “rebalancing” the agency’s mission as it continues to tweet about climate change.

NASA continues to steadfastly tweet urgent climate change information despite a critical president and GOP efforts to force the agency to stick to space and forget the Earth.

The Trump administration aims to largely restrict NASA’s focus to its space missions and have it abandon climate change research, which is a part of its Earth Sciences Division. The division, which accounts for just $2 billion of NASA’s $20 billion budget, also includes gathering weather information, which the Republicans don’t want to drop.

At a House Science, Space and Technology Committee hearing last Thursday, Chairman Lamar Smith (R-Texas) said he wants a “rebalancing” of NASA’s mission to allow other agencies to take over its climate change research. But it’s unclear which agencies could pick up the slack.

The new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, climate-change sceptic Scott Pruitt, has vowed to cut the EPA’s budget and staff in the wake of Trump’s campaign promise to “get rid” of the agency, The New York Times noted. The EPA has also been under orders from the Trump administration to refrain from tweeting anything about climate change.

Meanwhile, NASA posts daily climate change updates on @NASAclimate and Facebook with frequent dire warnings about rapid global changes.

Click here to read more.

Quoting 5. ChiThom:

I see I'm not the only one with blog comment problems!
Already noted but Chicagoland and the upper Midwest are experiencing an extended heat wave for February.
I hope all the dams inCalifornia are going to be OK.


Did you see that email...
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
1:00 PM EST Sunday 19 February 2017
Temperature:
52.0°F
Dew point:
34.0°F
Humidity:
50%
Wind:
WNW 22 gust 28 mph
Visibility:
15 miles
Normals
Max 34°F. Min 18°F.
Something is very wrong when I can walk outside in mid February early in the morning with short sleeve on.Taking advantage of this warm weather and the other blast of Spring like temps coming later this week.

average is 68/44
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 19U
1:55 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 12:30 AM CST, Tropical Low located at 14.5S 136.8E or 85 km south southeast of Alyangula and 185 km north northeast of Borroloola has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 4 knots.

The tropical low is located over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria, between Groote Eylandt and Borroloola. It is expected to be slow moving before turning towards the south during Monday. Heavy rain and squally winds associated with the low are likely and the low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday. The system is forecast to weaken near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Tuesday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 85-90 km/h were observed during Sunday afternoon at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but have since moved off the coast. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may redevelop in squalls along exposed areas of the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast and over Groote Eylandt during Monday.

Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop about coastal and island communities between Port McArthur and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, during Monday as the cyclone develops. GALES may develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border later on Monday as the system moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more southeasterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is likely over the southeast Arnhem and eastern Carpentaria districts and around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during Monday and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Cape Shield to NT/Qld Border

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Quoting 21. washingtonian115:

Something is very wrong when I can walk outside in mid February early in the morning with short sleeve on.Taking advantage of this warm weather and the other blast of Spring like temps coming later this week.

overnight low last night was between 6am and 7am
low recorded 38f normal 18f
20 degrees above normal


Not much left of the spillway
Wisconsin has already at least tied its February Record high of 68:

https://www.wunderground.com/us/wi/burlington/zmw :53105.1.99999

Now lets beat it!!!
Quoting 27. Lurkindanger:



Not much left of the spillway
I did not think it would be
Quoting 24. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


overnight low last night was between 6am and 7am
low recorded 38f normal 18f
20 degrees above normal
We were still 65 degrees at 11pm yesterday night.
SFO Radar,composite loop



Quoting 29. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I did not think it would be


I want to see what they do for a new one. Cut the original on in half and make it a waterfall?

Click to enlarge (saved current loop). Source: (Unofficial) Record-breaking temperature across the Globe the last 24h


Current stations in the US approaching or surpassing temperature records (saved).

Source for updates: http://coolwx.com/record/
Scroll down to get the current list.
weather moving in rains
then another big warm up
then after 26th we should get the throw back too reality
for a while maybe till mid march
then spring will be here

Quoting 31. washingtonian115:

We were still 65 degrees at 11pm yesterday night.
looking like a dry hot summer coming up for the grt lakes regions eastward
91 *%$# degrees





Link
Up to 57F here today.
Just went for a walk in a tank top and it was pretty comfortable.
The record for today is 64F so we won't reach that.
Lots of snow melt out there which makes the wild animal tracks look huge.
great day here not a cloud in the sky



not sure why this isn't working...
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10/11
Issued by the AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
Issued at 1935UTC 19 FEBRUARY 2017


Excerpt:

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude fourteen decimal five south (14.5S)
longitude one hundred and thirty seven decimal zero east (137.0E)
Recent movement : east at 4 knots
Maximum winds : 35 knots
Central pressure: 999 hPa
The low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.
high today has been reach 52 temps have fallen to 51.7 now
looks like snow cover for city is now pretty much gone

there it is I found some lower right lol

48 hrs ago we had maybe a 15/20 cm snow cover now nothing gone just like that
Quoting 27. Lurkindanger:



Not much left of the spillway
Not the lower part -- what does the upper half look like, though?
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date:
3:00 PM EST Sunday 19 February 2017

Temperature:
51.6F
Dew point:
34.2F
Humidity:
51%
Wind:
WNW 18 gust 24 mph
Visibility:
15 miles
Quoting 49. CaneFreeCR:

Not the lower part -- what does the upper half look like, though?
we got to wait till they close the gates
Scientists Protest, Plan to Fight Back Against Trump in Boston

BOSTON - American scientists share the same desires and needs as the rest of us. They're just folks whose job description includes proving hypotheses and establishing facts based on collecting evidence. After eight years of a government that respected the importance of their work, the incoming administration has proven to be hostile - not only to scientists, but to evidence-supported facts themselves.

Scientists met this weekend in Boston for the Science Policy-themed 2017 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of the Sciences, and they are gearing up for a fight to defend truth.

"I fear we are in for a very rough ride," said John Holdren, senior advisor to President Barack Obama for Science and Technology, in a session hosted by the Union of Concerned Scientists, an independent science advocacy group. Creating an agreed upon, measured approach to resisting the president has proven difficult. "The chaotic nature of [the way] things are unfolding makes it difficult to respond in a strategic and coordinated way," said Holdren.

"It is not political to defend the integrity of facts," said Naomi Oreskes, professor of the history of science at Harvard University, speaking at the center of the rally.

One thing for sure, though, is based on Sunday's rally's attendance, scientists will not go down without a fight.

"When science or research is under attack, what do we do?" called an organizer. The crowd responded: "Stand up, fight back!"

Quoting 38. nrtiwlnvragn:

91 *%$# degrees





Link
just a little warm gonna get warmer wait till july then it will be 121
Quoting 52. no1der:

I was looking at that picture I don't know if that can be done
Quoting 54. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I was looking at that picture I don't know if that can be done


Uphill battle all the way. The elites don't want the workers to be smart.
still only gale force winds in the southern quadrants..

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 19U
4:59 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 14.5S 137.0E or 95 km southeast of Alyangula and 190 km north northeast of Borroloola has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

The tropical low is located to the southeast of Groote Eylandt and is expected to turn towards the south today. Heavy rain and squally winds associated with the system are likely and the low may develop into a tropical cyclone today. The system is forecast to weaken near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Tuesday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 85-90 km/h were observed during Sunday afternoon and overnight at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may redevelop in squalls along exposed areas of the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast and over Groote Eylandt today.

Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop about coastal and island communities between Port McArthur and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, as the system develops. GALES may develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border later today as the system moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more southeasterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is likely over the southeast Arnhem and eastern Carpentaria districts and around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 14.8S 137.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.2S 137.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.0S 137.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.8S 136.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low is located using surrounding surface observations. Centre Island on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast reported sustained gales for periods between 0330Z and 0700Z yesterday and again more recently from 1800Z this morning, confirming the likelihood that gales are persisting beneath this in the southeast and southwest quadrants.

Recent satellite imagery has shown increased convection over the system with improved banding and increasing curvature with a wrap of 0.3-0.4, giving a Dvorak 0f 2-2.5.

The tropical low is located is a balanced steering environment between a weakening mid-level ridge to the southeast and a high centered to the northeast, although a slow eastwards movement has become evident in the last 6 hours. An amplifying upper trough is forecast to weaken the mid-level ridge further today, resulting in a turn towards the south. A new ridge building on Wednesday will cause the system to stall near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, before steering the system westwards. Numerical weather prediction is in general agreement with this scenario.

Satellite shows good poleward outflow and also dry air advecting around the western side of the low. CIMSS shows low to moderate vertical wind shear over the area. Over the next 24-48 hours the approaching upper trough may cause shear to increase and curtail further development. There is the possibility of a cyclone formation within the next 12-24 hours. However from later today or during Tuesday, dry-air incursion in the mid-levels becomes another factor and as such the system is likely to weaken during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Cape Shield to NT/Qld Border

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Quoting 55. PedleyCA:



Uphill battle all the way. The elites don't want the workers to be smart.
never have but it will when it does watch out
Quoting 55. PedleyCA:



Uphill battle all the way. The elites don't want the workers to be smart.


Yesterday was the beginning of the horrific 5yr drought in Centex in 2011.. I feel it's starting again. It's been trying to rain for months but 'can't', like 5 years ago. Highs in the mid-80s for 10 days... this winter heat wave will sure kick-start agriculture in the south, as long as more hard freezes aren't to come to kill the blossom cycle... only silver lining.
Quoting 34. Grothar:





unabated'

Quoting 59. 999Ai2016:

we could be looking at an early spring it seems
Quoting 61. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we could be looking at an early spring it seems


Yeah. I don't know for N Am, but at the moment that's the forecast for W Europe (Feb. 19 to March 5, temperature anomaly in degree celsius).
Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 2h
More
At least 70 today in DC. 3rd 70+ this month. Odds are increasing that this will be the warmest February on record (since 1872).

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 18m
More
This is not a dream: An even 70 degrees in DC just before 4p on Feb 19.
Quoting 61. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we could be looking at an early spring it seems


Not here... Snow, snow, snow... Doesn't bug me, actually makes me happy to see us catch up some. Probably 6" so far today and at least a few inches a day the past couple of days.
Quoting 64. Dakster:



Not here... Snow, snow, snow... Doesn't bug me, actually makes me happy to see us catch up some. Probably 6" so far today and at least a few inches a day the past couple of days.
spring comes by first of may end of april up there normally
So many causes being marched for. So much going on. No combined unity as of yet against a machine attacking their own people on every front for the elite. We must unite. We must find a way to connect together and send 3-5 million people together to march on Washington.
One of those "other dams" mentioned in the second paragraph of the blog entry -
Another California Dam Grapples With Flood Danger | Drought Watch | KQED Science
Quoting 1. StormDrain:

Today weather: The system that hit SoCal has split. The southern low is creating (at present) a slight risk for severe including tornadoes across TX and into OK. Stay tuned...


Ah, nothing like Spring in mid-February here in the SoPlains.



SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC019-031-033-067-085-137-141-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0034.170219T2205Z-170220T0600Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARTER COMANCHE COTTON
JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS
TILLMAN
$$
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-093-095-133-143-193-22 1-237-267-307-
319-327-333-337-363-367-399-411-413-417-429-435-4 41-447-451-485-
487-497-503-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0034.170219T2205Z-170220T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND
ERATH HAMILTON HOOD
JACK KIMBLE MASON
MCCULLOCH MENARD MILLS
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
WICHITA WILBARGER WISE
YOUNG
$$


ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...


SEL4

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 34
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
405 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
southern Oklahoma
west-central and western north Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon from 405 PM until Midnight CST.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually intensify through early
evening across west-central and western north Texas into southern
OK. Damaging winds and severe hail will be possible, and wind
profiles could support a brief tornado risk across parts of north
Texas into southern Oklahoma.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northeast
of Wichita Falls TX to 20 miles south southwest of Junction TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
19025.

...Guyer
71. vis0
Sorry i'm late was on the floor rolling and laughing then shaking head and crying

Why?

After i heard Priebus (WH chief of staff was on NBC meet the press) "backdoor" compare President Trump To George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and Thomas Jefferson if i where creating an SNL skit i'd have three present / living people by those exact famous names appear yet all have some criminal background (one still in jail doing a live feed from jail)

WEATHER:: warmer than it should be for several days**, PLUS weather related as these politicians are the people that will decide if/how science programs, weather programs are funded or not or drastically cut


to paraphrase-quote a recent comment by a $keptic, That'd called Summer ... in the Southern Hemisphere

BTW be on alert my inside sources say Trumps teanm will try to make news sources look bad by saying something on May through Apr2 so the press reports it and then Trumps team will say something like see the press reports even an AprilfoolsJoke as news.  If i where the press anytime some weird report came out on those days i'd ask on record is that an AFJoke.


Let's go warmth!

Mud season starts early this year.
"Last night in Sweden we heard rain ..." Somehow weather related, in the light of recent events, lol:


Daughters Of Eve - Last Night In Sweden

Trump's 'last night in Sweden' comment prompts bemusement, questions from embassy
Updated 12 minutes ago (one of many comments: link)

We are going to get some rain in Germany, too. Quite mild temperatures, and the plants are starting their spring activities in my roof garden (still February, no?). Have a nice and peaceful night and start into the new week, everyone. Best wishes to Northern California with the AR!!!

Strong atmospheric river likely to bring widespread, perhaps severe flooding to Northern California on Monday : California Weather Blog
(Below are the section headings. Click the above link for the complete article text and graphics.)
Potentially dangerous flood event this week across wide swath of Northern California
....
Slow-moving atmospheric river may stall near Bay Area, Sacramento regions
....
Widespread flooding likely; severe stresses on California's water infrastructure
....
Quoting 52. no1der:
Scientists Protest, Plan to Fight Back Against Trump in Boston

BOSTON - American scientists share the same desires and needs as the rest of us. They're just folks whose job description includes proving hypotheses and establishing facts based on collecting evidence. After eight years of a government that respected the importance of their work, the incoming administration has proven to be hostile - not only to scientists, but to evidence-supported facts themselves.

Scientists met this weekend in Boston for the Science Policy-themed 2017 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of the Sciences, and they are gearing up for a fight to defend truth.

"I fear we are in for a very rough ride," said John Holdren, senior advisor to President Barack Obama for Science and Technology, in a session hosted by the Union of Concerned Scientists, an independent science advocacy group. Creating an agreed upon, measured approach to resisting the president has proven difficult. "The chaotic nature of [the way] things are unfolding makes it difficult to respond in a strategic and coordinated way," said Holdren.

"It is not political to defend the integrity of facts," said Naomi Oreskes, professor of the history of science at Harvard University, speaking at the center of the rally.

One thing for sure, though, is based on Sunday's rally's attendance, scientists will not go down without a fight.

"When science or research is under attack, what do we do?" called an organizer. The crowd responded: "Stand up, fight back!"
Oh, gracious! You're giving me the vapors.

At least Oreskes says it is not being political. There's some comfort in that--not. She is playing with semantics to salve her precious conscience.

If only: scientists had not sat back the last 25 years hoping that just because they are right they will prevail. No one is immune from politics. Scientists are just very bad at it.

They confuse the role of politics in the realm of scientific inquiry with the role of politics in the world at large. Scientific inquiry rejects politics. The world demands it.

If scientists insist on keeping to the ivory towers, then they are not much use at the moment.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
7:57 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 6:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (998 hPa) located at 15.0S 137.3E or 160 km northeast of Borroloola and 160 km southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred has formed in the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria and has recently commenced a track towards the southeast. Heavy rain and squally winds associated with the system are likely. The cyclone is forecast to weaken in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria prior to landfall during Tuesday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h have recently been observed at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop in squalls along exposed areas of the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast and over Groote Eylandt during today.

Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop about coastal and island communities between Port Roper and the NT/Qld border later today as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper to NT/Qld Border, including Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
In response to 72. Bread of deceit is sweet to a man; but afterwards his mouth shall be filled with gravel. He that oppresseth the poor to increase his riches, and he that giveth to the rich, shall surely come to want. Buy the truth, and sell it not; also wisdom, and instruction, and understanding. So says the Word. Your hate is marketed here, but what we strive for here is to bring truth and stand fast by her side.
Alfred (a.k.a. 19U):

JSL2 enhancement - developed by Jim Lynch. Used to bring out low level and high level clouds in tropical cyclones. Source / NOAA tropical floaters

Nearby rain radar:
512 km composite Gulf of Carpentaria (Mornington Is) Radar Loop

Better (hi-res) satellite view:
RAMMB-CIRA (Himawari-8): 10 Minute Floater 1 Band 3
Quoting 79. DeepSeaRising:

In response to 72. Bread of deceit is sweet to a man;


All I can find is a study published in Science in April of 2007 referencing this "permanent drought" as a basis for this lie I hear all too often. It is behind a paywall so I can't read it, but non-conspiracy website sources make references to conditions across the Southwest U.S. by 2050. Since I cannot find any credible source to claims of 2017 in California or Texas of a couple years ago about this very little thought we are blessed with reading and using my internal red flag I am going to call it out as being a lie.
If someone can show me I am wrong I would greatly appreciate it.
82. bwi
A couple years ago we had summer in March; this year it's Spring in February in DC. My hope is the midwest gets some late snowpack that keeps soils nice and moist through real Spring. We're at risk for drought and a super-hot summer if the midwest doesn't cool off and get some moisture before Spring I think. Those super-high temps in Oklahoma and Texas this month are not a happy think I reckon.
Quoting 82. bwi:

A couple years ago we had summer in March; this year it's Spring in February in DC. My hope is the midwest gets some late snowpack that keeps soils nice and moist through real Spring. We're at risk for drought and a super-hot summer if the midwest doesn't cool off and get some moisture before Spring I think. Those super-high temps in Oklahoma and Texas this month are not a happy think I reckon.
Just last year we had summer in March.The long range pattern shows a rainy pattern setting up.
Quoting 72. bjrabbit:

Nice article....but, I am confused. According to AGW nuttery, California is supposed to be in the state of permanent drought...oops.

I'm sure some smart aleck will post that weather isn't climate...but

Hey, I forgot, there are no buts...Scott Pruitt is your worst nightmare....he is going to gut the EPA. Trump is going to re-direct NASA. I burned so much wood this winter..albeit as short as it was.

BZ
Nice to see someone getting such a kick out of regressing to the 60s and 70s and Love Canals all over the country, and nobody to clean them up except you and your children and grandchildren. Too bad the government cleanup agencies will have been gutted -- your grandkids will be wondering why you wanted THAT!
Quoting 65. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

spring comes by first of may end of april up there normally


Last couple of years it was in early April... Although in 2014 it snowed up until memorial day...

One thing most long time Alaskans tell me is that every year is different. There is no normal to go by.
Quoting 84. CaneFreeCR:

Nice to see someone getting such a kick out of regressing to the 60s and 70s and Love Canals all over the country, and nobody to clean them up except you and your children and grandchildren. Too bad the government cleanup agencies will have been gutted -- your grandkids will be wondering why you wanted THAT!
Quoting 72. bjrabbit:

Nice article....but, I am confused. According to AGW nuttery, California is supposed to be in the state of permanent drought...oops.

I'm sure some smart aleck will post that weather isn't climate...but

Hey, I forgot, there are no buts...Scott Pruitt is your worst nightmare....he is going to gut the EPA. Trump is going to re-direct NASA. I burned so much wood this winter..albeit as short as it was.

BZ

Would you like to provide me with a link to a scientific peer reviewed source that says California's drought was permanent due to climate change? I can't find any.
Quoting 87. MrTornadochase:


Would you like to provide me with a link to a scientific peer reviewed source that says California's drought was permanent due to climate change? I can't find any.


As far as I can tell the very little thought that is shared from time to time here is based on an actual study done published in the journal Science in 2007. It is behind a paywall so I can't read the whole thing. It is here: Link

From what I have read it is about conditions across the Southwest U.S. by 2050 being in a more arid climate.
Quoting 87. MrTornadochase:


Would you like to provide me with a link to a scientific peer reviewed source that says California's drought was permanent due to climate change? I can't find any.


There is at least one paper that links drought and climate change, however the "permanent" part is in the 2060's. The denialisphere picks that up but always fails to note the timeframe, sort of like the increase in stronger hurricanes where the research indicates would happen at the end of the century.

Warming Climate is Deepening California Drought

Excerpt:

In fact, most projections say that warming will eventually increase California’s rainfall a bit. But the new study says that evaporation will overpower any increase in rain, and then some. This means that by around the 2060s, more or less permanent drought will set in, interrupted only by the rainiest years. More intense rainfall is expected to come in short bursts, then disappear.
Quoting 89. nrtiwlnvragn:



But the new study says that evaporation will overpower any increase in rain, and then some. This means that by around the 2060s, more or less permanent drought will set in, interrupted only by the rainiest years. More intense rainfall is expected to come in short bursts, then disappear.


A more recent study than the example I could find and the section quoted above makes sense to me and reflects current conditions.


Maybe the science deniers think they are being clever with the permanent drought comments recently and a couple years ago regarding Texas. Looks like the better luck necktie is waterproof.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
615 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 35 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC019-127-137-163-265-271-323-325-385-463-465-50 7-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0035.170220T0015Z-170220T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA DIMMIT EDWARDS
FRIO KERR KINNEY
MAVERICK MEDINA REAL
UVALDE VAL VERDE ZAVALA
$$


ATTN...WFO...EWX...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC019-031-033-067-085-137-141-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0034.170219T2205Z-170220T0600Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CARTER COMANCHE COTTON
JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS
TILLMAN
$$

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 34
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
405 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-093-095-133-143-193-22 1-237-267-307-
319-327-333-337-363-367-399-411-413-417-429-435-4 41-447-451-485-
487-497-503-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0034.170219T2205Z-170220T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND
ERATH HAMILTON HOOD
JACK KIMBLE MASON
MCCULLOCH MENARD MILLS
MONTAGUE PALO PINTO PARKER
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS SUTTON
TAYLOR THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN
WICHITA WILBARGER WISE
YOUNG
$$


ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT...

MASSIVE amounts of lightning in central Texas.

Pfeiffer Canyon Bridge along the Pacific Coast Highway (Rte.1) in Big Sur is being closed due to damage to its supports from a landslide, another result of heavy ppt in the area this rainy season.
Quoting 92. hotroddan:

MASSIVE amounts of lightning in central Texas.


That low splitting in two was ENTIRELY unforecast. Some people are in unexpected danger, while some should have been out irrigating their dry soil that's about to get blasted by hot sun for at least a week. And they didn't see the split until it happened.
Quoting 92. hotroddan:

MASSIVE amounts of lightning in central Texas.

en.blitzortung.org/live_lightning_maps
ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc/h5-mloop-ir4.html



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
444 PM PST Sun Feb 19 2017

DISCUSSION...as of 03:00 PM PST Sunday... Latest water vapor satellite imagery depicts a 1.30 - 1.70" TPW precipitable water plume extending from Hawaii to central California early this afternoon. This precipitable water plume qualifies as an atmospheric river given that forecast integrated water vapor transport values well exceed the accepted threshold values and then some. Model IVT values exceed 500 kg/ms (twice the accepted
250kg/ms threshold), between 36-38N (roughly encompassing Big Sur to the North Bay) which indicates the potential for excessive rainfall for our forecast area from this plume. WPC (the NWS` national forecast/modeling center) agrees with this assessment and have placed our local forecast area under a MOD risk of excessive rainfall, as well areas around Sacramento and the northern Sierra Nevada...

... trends suggest that for late this afternoon/this evening, rainfall will initially be advected inward on an east to west axis and widespread along the coastal ranges from Big Sur to the North Bay with no clear stand out. Next, the plume will begin to narrow and intensify between 10pm and 4am overnight as it interacts with a descending low to the north and ridge to the south. As this band intensifies, the axis will shift from an east to west setup to southwest to northeast axis. This is important because it will likely enhance the orographics of this event and further increase anticipated rainfall. This narrow, intense band has been trending towards a landfall somewhere between the coastal Santa Cruz mountains and North Bay, with a mean landfall zone over the I80 corridor (Golden Gate Bridge to Sacramento to Northern Sierra Nevada). Confidence is moderate to high that the heaviest rain will fall somewhere in this zone.
Quoting 89. nrtiwlnvragn:



There is at least one paper that links drought and climate change, however the "permanent" part is in the 2060's. The denialisphere picks that up but always fails to note the timeframe, sort of like the increase in stronger hurricanes where the research indicates would happen at the end of the century.

Warming Climate is Deepening California Drought

Excerpt:

In fact, most projections say that warming will eventually increase California’s rainfall a bit. But the new study says that evaporation will overpower any increase in rain, and then some. This means that by around the 2060s, more or less permanent drought will set in, interrupted only by the rainiest years. More intense rainfall is expected to come in short bursts, then disappear.
Thank you. It looks like we're already seeing what they're describing. Drought with a few years of good rains here and there that wipe it out, only for it to come back within a year or two.
Quoting 92. hotroddan:

MASSIVE amounts of lightning in central Texas.


And can I expect these MASSIVE amounts of lightning here in SE Texas?
101. bwi
Quoting 83. washingtonian115:

Just last year we had summer in March.The long range pattern shows a rainy pattern setting up.


The outrageous summer in March was 2012
In the Sierras, New Approaches to Protecting Forests Under Stress
Yale Environment 360 - Feb. 13.

In California's Sierras and around the world, extreme drought and rising temperatures are killing trees and threatening the viability of forests. Some ecologists are saying that land managers now need to adopt radically new strategies. (...)



California Forests Failing to Regrow After Intense Wildfires
Inside Climate News - December 2016.

(...) Alistair Jump, a forest ecologist in the U.K. who has studied forests on three continents, said recent forest die-offs around the world should be seen as part of a global forest crisis. The massive changes aren't just a symptom of climate change -- they could drive changes in the global carbon cycle that would speed the buildup of heat-trapping pollution. (...)
Quoting 92. hotroddan:

MASSIVE amounts of lightning in central Texas.


Boy, you're not kidding.

Link
Quoting 96. redwagon:



That low splitting in two was ENTIRELY unforecast. Some people are in unexpected danger, while some should have been out irrigating their dry soil that's about to get blasted by hot sun for at least a week. And they didn't see the split until it happened.


1. Are you sure about that low splitting in two?

2. What does this mean for the Houston region?
Quoting 103. BayFog:



Boy, you're not kidding.

Link


Yes, and it's bound for Houston, unfortunately.

drying out here for awhile... I hope....
108. bwi
I don't see a rainy pattern developing for the east coast really. GFS has a very consistent storm track from the CO/Kansas border up through the lower Great Lakes and out the St. Lawrence valley for the next 10 (or more) days. That puts the mid-atlantic in the warm sector with pre-frontal showers every few days, but only fractions of an inch of rain with each front.

Quoting 106. PedleyCA:



Indeed.
Quoting 108. bwi:

I don't see a rainy pattern developing for the east coast really. GFS has a very consistent storm track from the CO/Kansas border up through the lower Great Lakes and out the St. Lawrence valley for the next 10 (or more) days. That puts the mid-atlantic in the warm sector with pre-frontal showers every few days, but only fractions of an inch of rain with each front.




What do you see for Houston on Monday? Anything like what happened in California?
Quoting 100. pureet1948:



And can I expect these MASSIVE amounts of lightning here in SE Texas?

There will probably be quite a bit of lightning in southeast Texas although there won't be as much as out west. The storms won't be as strong by the time they get to SE Texas.
Quoting 96. redwagon:



That low splitting in two was ENTIRELY unforecast. Some people are in unexpected danger, while some should have been out irrigating their dry soil that's about to get blasted by hot sun for at least a week. And they didn't see the split until it happened.

yeah, I was looking at forecast models yesterday and early today and they all indicated that the line of storms was going to split. By the time the afternoon came along the models were showing that the line would remain intact.
Quoting 111. hotroddan:


There will probably be quite a bit of lightning in southeast Texas although there won't be as much as out west. The storms won't be as strong by the time they get to SE Texas.


Then I have a better chance of my power staying on than if I were, say, in west Texas right now?
Quoting 112. hotroddan:


yeah, I was looking at forecast models yesterday and early today and they all indicated that the line of storms was going to split. By the time the afternoon came along the models were showing that the line would remain intact.


This is the precip forecast as of FRI noon. Things changed. That training West of us is taking some people by surprise.

Quoting 114. redwagon:



This is the precip forecast as of FRI noon. Things changed. That training West of us is taking some people by surprise.




Meaning that by tomorrow or the day after, Gov. Abbot will be touring SE Texas in a helicopter to survey the damage. Houston and Harris county will be declared disaster areas!
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #22
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
11:24 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (997 hPa) located at 15.4S 137.2E or 120 km northeast of Borroloola and 190 km south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves slowly southeast towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast west of the NT / Queensland border early Tuesday.

GALES with GUSTS to 110 km/h currently being experienced at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Port Roper and the NT/Qld border later today as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 15.9S 137.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.3S 137.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.9S 137.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 16.4S 136.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The Centre Island AWS near the southern Gulf of Carpenataria coast has recorded a wind gust of 60 knots at 0100 UTC and sustained gales since 1800 UTC. The low level circulation center was located using surface obs and radar, moving southeast. The 2334 UTC ASCAT pass shows near-gales at around 50nm east of the low level circulation center.

Recent satellite imagery has shown a 2 degree diameter central cold cover pattern, with a large area of -80C cloud tops, possible indicative of interaction with the coast. FT=3.0 based on MET using developing trend, although a narrow cloud-free wedge suggests intensity closer to T3.5.

The tropical low is located is a balanced steering environment between a weakening mid-level ridge to the southeast and a high centered to the northeast, although a slow south southeast movement has become evident in the last 12 hours. An amplifying upper trough is forecast to weaken the mid-level ridge further today, resulting in a turn towards the south, closer to the coast. A new ridge building on Wednesday is expected to cause the system to stall near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, before steering the system westwards. Numerical weather prediction is in general agreement with this scenario.

Satellite shows good poleward outflow and also dry air advecting around the western side of the low. CIMSS shows low to moderate vertical wind shear over the area. Over the next 24-48 hours the approaching upper trough may cause shear to increase and curtail further development. There is the possibility of a cyclone formation within the next 12-24 hours. However from later today or during Tuesday, dry-air incursion in the mid-levels becomes another factor and as such the system is likely to weaken during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper to NT/Qld Border, including Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Quoting 115. pureet1948:



Meaning that by tomorrow or the day after, Gov. Abbot will be touring SE Texas in a helicopter to survey the damage. Houston and Harris county will be declared disaster areas!

No, it means there is the potential for flash flooding WPC giving 5-10% chance over Huston Link NWS Huston Flash flood watch message
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
152 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-201100 -
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0001.170220T0900Z-170220T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado -Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-M atagorda-
Montgomery-San Jacinto-Walker-Waller-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan, Caldwell, Cleveland,
Coldspring, College Station, Columbus, Conroe, Dayton,
Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood, Galveston,
Hempstead, Houston, Humble, Huntsville, Katy, Lake Jackson,
Lake Somerville, League City, Liberty, Madisonville,
Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Navasota, Palacios, Pasadena,
Pearland, Pierce, Prairie View, Richmond, Rosenberg, Sealy,
Shepherd, Sugar Land, Texas City, The Woodlands, Tomball, Weimar,
Wharton, Willis, and Winnie
152 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Southeast Texas...including
the following counties...Jackson. In southeast Texas...Austin...
Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Colorado ...Fort Bend...
Galveston...Grimes...Harris...Liberty...Madison... Matagorda...
Montgomery...San Jacinto...Walker...Waller...Washington and Wharton.

* From late tonight through Monday afternoon

* The combination of an approaching upper level storm system from
the west and well above normal moisture levels will set the
stage for widespread thunderstorm development with locally heavy
rainfall. The flash flood threat will begin across western
portions of southeast Texas during the early morning hours and
will slowly progress eastward during the day. Rainfall amounts
are expected to average between 1 to 3 inches across the watch
area with localized areas expected to receive between 4 and 6
inches of rainfall. These localized rainfall amounts when coupled
with wet soils from previous rainfall would lead to flash flooding.

* Street flooding and flooding of low lying areas are the most
likely impacts tonight and Monday. Small streams and bayous may
be impacted during the day on Monday.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions MAY develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

(My little reminder) A Flash flood watch does not mean your city will be destroyed by floods of Biblical perportions, it means there is a possibility for flash flooding, I assure you, Huston will still be there Tuesday evening.

Quoting 117. MrTornadochase:


No, it means there is the potential for flash flooding WPC giving 5-10% chance over Huston Link NWS Huston Flash flood watch message
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
152 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

TXZ176>178-195>200-210>214-226-227-235&g t;238-201100 -
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0001.170220T0900Z-170220T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Austin-Brazoria-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Colorado -Fort Bend-
Galveston-Grimes-Harris-Jackson-Liberty-Madison-M atagorda-
Montgomery-San Jacinto-Walker-Waller-Washington-Wharton-
Including the cities of Alvin, Anahuac, Angleton, Bay City,
Bellville, Brenham, Brookshire, Bryan, Caldwell, Cleveland,
Coldspring, College Station, Columbus, Conroe, Dayton,
Eagle Lake, Edna, El Campo, Freeport, Friendswood, Galveston,
Hempstead, Houston, Humble, Huntsville, Katy, Lake Jackson,
Lake Somerville, League City, Liberty, Madisonville,
Missouri City, Mont Belvieu, Navasota, Palacios, Pasadena,
Pearland, Pierce, Prairie View, Richmond, Rosenberg, Sealy,
Shepherd, Sugar Land, Texas City, The Woodlands, Tomball, Weimar,
Wharton, Willis, and Winnie
152 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Southeast Texas...including
the following counties...Jackson. In southeast Texas...Austin...
Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Colorado ...Fort Bend...
Galveston...Grimes...Harris...Liberty...Madison... Matagorda...
Montgomery...San Jacinto...Walker...Waller...Washington and Wharton.

* From late tonight through Monday afternoon

* The combination of an approaching upper level storm system from
the west and well above normal moisture levels will set the
stage for widespread thunderstorm development with locally heavy
rainfall. The flash flood threat will begin across western
portions of southeast Texas during the early morning hours and
will slowly progress eastward during the day. Rainfall amounts
are expected to average between 1 to 3 inches across the watch
area with localized areas expected to receive between 4 and 6
inches of rainfall. These localized rainfall amounts when coupled
with wet soils from previous rainfall would lead to flash flooding.

* Street flooding and flooding of low lying areas are the most
likely impacts tonight and Monday. Small streams and bayous may
be impacted during the day on Monday.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions MAY develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

(My little reminder) A Flash flood watch does not mean your city will be destroyed by floods of Biblical perportions, it means there is a possibility for flash flooding, I assure you, Huston will still be there Tuesday evening.




But will it be anything like the April 18, 2016 floods? I lost power for twelve hours that day! Only bright side: the technician who fixed my transformer was an old chum of mine named Vera.
Quoting 95. no1der:
The nerdiest signs from Boston%u2019s %u2018stand up for science%u2019 rally
I like the cat.

Edit: Nonpartisan does not equal nonpolitical. If they are in public pushing an agenda, resisting forces against their agenda, they are being political.
Quoting 118. pureet1948:



But will it be anything like the April 18, 2016 floods? I lost power for twelve hours that day! Only bright side: the technician who fixed my transformer was an old chum of mine named Vera.

I can't guarantee you anything, as the off chance of the forecast being way underdone is there, but current forecasts call for rain amounts of around 3 inches isolated locations may get up to 6 inches, compared to the 9-17 inches recorded in the April 2016. All I can advise you is to be prepared for the possibility of localized flash flooding and listen to your local NWS office for watches and warnings that may be issued.
Quoting 120. MrTornadochase:


I can't guarantee you anything, as the off chance of the forecast being way underdone is there, but current forecasts call for rain amounts of around 3 inches isolated locations may get up to 6 inches, compared to the 9-17 inches recorded in the April 2016. All I can advise you is to be prepared for the possibility of localized flash flooding and listen to your local NWS office for watches and warnings that may be issued.


There is a difference between 6 inches of rain and 9 inches of rain. My main worry, though, it wind and lightning. Anyone have thoughts on that?

Warm front approaching from the southwest this evening here in the SF Bay Area. Gusty SE winds and rain will increase overnight, switching to even stronger out of the SW after frontal passage in the subtropical plume with a low level jet, plus an approaching jet max aloft. Trailing cold front will become parallel to the upper jet, so will crawl all day long, prolonging the period of precip from here up thru the Sierras, including the Feather River basin. The HIgh Sierra will see many feet of heavy wet snow with probable rain at the altitude of Lake Tahoe (6250 ft). Excessive rain will fall even in the Central Valley which will also see river flooding as all reservoirs are too full to do much more flood control.
123. vis0

Quoting 53. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just a little warm gonna get warmer wait till july then it will be 121
Lets not forget its not Global Temperature spiking, so i place more importance on not always that Daily records that are broken as to highest temperature more than cooler temperatures but that old records are falling (being broken) as to length of warm spells.  

Again in my younger years if i saw 60 in February i knew in 24 to 48 hrs i was going to be in a deep freeze wind chills below zero.  

Now if a record is 66F i might not see a daily record broken every time their is a warm spell but i'm seeing low to mid 60s F but for four  to five days and then nature responds for the next four or five days with mid 40s, still warmer than "average".

This will cause many more brownouts when summer comes during mid-late spring in the years to follow and i fear that this longer periods of warm weather can in turn lead to accidental or faulty tripping (not stopping some failure within one power plant) blackouts.

might sound/read silly but people careful don't leave pets/kids in locked cars even during winter.   It might have been 45F in the morning so car heater was ON but if it reaches 66 F and the car heater fails to work and go OFF on auto-settings serious trouble is bound to happen. (i don't say death cause too many deaths in video games has caused many to not value the seriousness of death but "trouble" in being a noun that can occur to the living and in video games trouble equals losing big points, so people seem relate to the use of "trouble'..
 

as to blackouts...
i can see it now President Trump stuck on an Escalator during a blackout waiting for firefighters to come to the rescue.
Quoting 37. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

looking like a dry hot summer coming up for the grt lakes regions eastward


Agreed. This looks a lot like the late winter of 2012. Remember summer in March?
Quoting 121. pureet1948:



There is a difference between 6 inches of rain and 9 inches of rain. My main worry, though, it wind and lightning. Anyone have thoughts on that?

SPC has Huston under a 5% risk, mainly for damaging winds nothing Huston can't handle LinkLightning will be a threat, as with any thunderstorm that might come through, but according to the latest runs of hi-Res models, storms currently over central Texas are forecast to weaken a bit before getting into Huston. Link for model runs Link
EDIT: model runs are subject to change and a single run does not determine your weather, but can be used (Using multiple model runs to see if there's any outliers/ to see how much they're in agreement) to get a general picture of what's in store for you.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 1007 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 939 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 927 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 910 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
TORNADO WARNING     CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 856 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 850 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 849 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 846 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 844 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 837 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 829 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 827 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 825 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 814 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 811 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING CORPUS CHRISTI TX - KCRP 808 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX - KEWX 806 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 758 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2017
Quoting 110. pureet1948:



What do you see for Houston on Monday? Anything like what happened in California?


No mudslides in Houston.

😉
Quoting 115. pureet1948:



Meaning that by tomorrow or the day after, Gov. Abbot will be touring SE Texas in a helicopter to survey the damage. Houston and Harris county will be declared disaster areas!


Sigh.

Look. Tomorrow at 3am I'm hitting the road to drive up from Irvine, CA to Fallon, NV. You want scary weather? Read the AR forecasts of the routes I have to take. I'm going the long way this time, 15 to Vegas and then north up 95, then the back way on 361 to 50 instead of my usual. It's still gonna be a freakshow, but I'm being smart (in my opinion) and avoiding the worst of it by planning ahead.

Why not just plan ahead yourself. Your panicky reactions are getting a little... predictable. I understand a post-traumatic stress response, really I do. You have no idea how much I understand. But you can't let it rule your life.

n.b. this post includes a bottle of chianti with my brother.
For the weather nervous this evening in H-town.

I give thee, the Krewe of Barkus 2017, today in Nola.

Krewe of Barkus today



Pureet seeks attention through every storm that ever comes through Houston. I like the guy, I truly do, but it's gotten ridiculous. I mean every storm, does not have to be severe and NWS can say things like, "No weather spotters needed", and he still will go on and on. It's a rouse and if he gets fed he will just do it more. It is not sincere. Let's remember it's every single storm that ever goes through Houston. WU is a great place for people to get up to the minute updates often when severe weather of the most dangerous sort is happening. And is a great tool to use on top of what people should be doing FIRST. Which is checking with the NWS. Pureet can do just that and get the information there and it's the best he's going to find anywhere. Pureet please stop.
up to 45 knots


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #23
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
2:11 PM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One located at 15.5S 137.2E or 115 km east northeast of Borroloola and 200 km south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves very slowly southeast towards the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. The cyclone is expected to remain slow moving near the coast before weakening into a tropical low by Wednesday and moving towards the west, over the Carpentaria District.

GALES with GUSTS to 110 km/h currently being experienced at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border later today as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast to Mornington Island overnight, then possibly further east to Burketown during Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper in the NT to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Mornington Island to Burketown, including Mornington Island
Quoting 125. MrTornadochase:


SPC has Huston under a 5% risk, mainly for damaging winds nothing Huston can't handle LinkLightning will be a threat, as with any thunderstorm that might come through, but according to the latest runs of hi-Res models, storms currently over central Texas are forecast to weaken a bit before getting into Huston. Link for model runs Link
EDIT: model runs are subject to change and a single run does not determine your weather, but can be used (Using multiple model runs to see if there's any outliers/ to see how much they're in agreement) to get a general picture of what's in store for you.


Hmm. Now if the models only weaken these storm a little bit more.......

Quoting 128. nonblanche:



Sigh.

Look. Tomorrow at 3am I'm hitting the road to drive up from Irvine, CA to Fallon, NV. You want scary weather? Read the AR forecasts of the routes I have to take. I'm going the long way this time, 15 to Vegas and then north up 95, then the back way on 361 to 50 instead of my usual. It's still gonna be a freakshow, but I'm being smart (in my opinion) and avoiding the worst of it by planning ahead.

Why not just plan ahead yourself. Your panicky reactions are getting a little... predictable. I understand a post-traumatic stress response, really I do. You have no idea how much I understand. But you can't let it rule your life.

n.b. this post includes a bottle of chianti with my brother.


Actually, the weather itself isn't quite as scary as when your power fails and when the power company is oh-so slow in turning it back on for you.
Quoting 130. DeepSeaRising:

Pureet seeks attention through every storm that ever comes through Houston. I like the guy, I truly do, but it's gotten ridiculous. I mean every storm, does not have to be severe and NWS can say things like, "No weather spotters needed", and he still will go on and on. It's a rouse and if he gets fed he will just do it more. It is not sincere. Let's remember it's every single storm that ever goes through Houston. WU is a great place for people to get up to the minute updates often when severe weather of the most dangerous sort is happening. And is a great tool to use on top of what people should be doing FIRST. Which is checking with the NWS. Pureet can do just that and get the information there and it's the best he's going to find anywhere. Pureet please stop.


Oh, the weather spotters may be needed Monday.
I am a little skeptical of this Tornado Warning for South Central Travis County in South Austin/San Marcos/Lockhart/ABIA, but I'm taking shelter nonetheless...


Not seeing much rotation, although it has ebbed and flowed this evening. Good news for Austin area for now.
We have Vivint for our alarm system and the tornado warning got me up here in Pflugerville. I'm not seeing the rotation on the velocity maps but there looks to be a bit of straight line activity. Needless to say this is gonna be a stay awake for the next 2 hours type thing.

Quoting 135. galvestonhurricane:

I am a little skeptical of this Tornado Warning for South Central Travis County in South Austin/San Marcos/Lockhart/ABIA, but I'm taking shelter nonetheless...
The first line of storms from the ULL is passing through now. Good lightning show but not unusual. Looks like we'll get a half inch from this line; the second seems a little more rain intense, so maybe we'll get an inch or more. Have seen several funnel signatures on WU radar, one about 12 miles north of my location 50 miles NW of Austin. Nothing sustained on those; pretty good bow when the storms rolled through.

Local news had the rain bullseye around Bay City area southeast of Houston, up to 5-6 inches. That area from Edna to Klute and within 50 miles of the coast always gets a lot of storms and heavy rain.

Pureet, I lived in Houston a while, saws three rains 8-9 inches, one damn ice storm of all things and worked down there just days after Hurricane Alicia. If it ain't a hurricane, you can maneuver the streets and avoid the low water situations with a little experience. Always have a favorite restaurant or bar on you high ground trail. It's not summer, so you don't have to worry about the AC. Relax. And stay out of the way of trees.
I'm seeing a few personal weather stations reporting gusts to 70 just south of Austin a.t.m.
Quoting 138. walkshills:

The first line of storms from the ULL is passing through now. Good lightning show but not unusual. Looks like we'll get a half inch from this line; the second seems a little more rain intense, so maybe we'll get an inch or more. Have seen several funnel signatures on WU radar, one about 12 miles north of my location 50 miles NW of Austin. Nothing sustained on those; pretty good bow when the storms rolled through.

Local news had the rain bullseye around Bay City area southeast of Houston, up to 5-6 inches. That area from Edna to Klute and within 50 miles of the coast always gets a lot of storms and heavy rain.

Pureet, I lived in Houston a while, saws three rains 8-9 inches, one damn ice storm of all things and worked down there just days after Hurricane Alicia. If it ain't a hurricane, you can maneuver the streets and avoid the low water situations with a little experience. Always have a favorite restaurant or bar on you high ground trail. It's not summer, so you don't have to worry about the AC. Relax. And stay out of the way of trees.


I have a disability and that makes these things twice the challenge for me, I'm afraid.
Quoting 139. calkevin77:

I'm seeing a few personal weather stations reporting gusts to 70 just south of Austin a.t.m.


Oh, boy!
Quoting 137. calkevin77:

We have Vivint for our alarm system and the tornado warning got me up here in Pflugerville. I'm not seeing the rotation on the velocity maps but there looks to be a bit of straight line activity. Needless to say this is gonna be a stay awake for the next 2 hours type thing.




Good to hear from you, calkevin! Sorry you are awake. This is normal for me haha Rotation is picking up again in the storm near Kyle, SE of Buda
Understand your dilemma. But you should be contacting your local politicians about that. We could help with that if we could.
Also, your power being off, I hope that isn't your greatest fear, because most of us, if not all, have been though it, and we are still typing today. I think it's time to you do something about a backup plan for this.

Peace/out


Quoting 133. pureet1948:



Actually, the weather itself isn't quite as scary as when your power fails and when the power company is oh-so slow in turning it back on for you.
70+ mph winds ripping through Niederwald right now. Headed toward Mustang Ridge
Quoting 92. hotroddan:

MASSIVE amounts of lightning in central Texas.





Quoting 145. swflurker:


Quoting 142. galvestonhurricane:



Good to hear from you, calkevin! Sorry you are awake. This is normal for me haha Rotation is picking up again in the storm near Kyle, SE of Buda

Likewise Galveston. Been busy with our new 4 month old so I don't get much time on here these days.

I'm keeping my eyes on the cell out near the CR 135 Creedmoor area east of Buda. Rotation there a bit and strong gusts in that one. Looking like it will stay south of me but the lightning is intense over here.
Quoting 133. pureet1948:



Actually, the weather itself isn't quite as scary as when your power fails and when the power company is oh-so slow in turning it back on for you.


That's not scary. Out here, we usually call that "Jamie Really Needs To Do Something About That Damned Cottonwood." And we keep pots of water around 'cause when the power's out, the well pump don't work and while we keep bottled water around, we have to save extra so we can flush the toilets. Either that or I have to bucket out to the septic port, and I really hate doing that.
Quoting 147. calkevin77:


Likewise Galveston. Been busy with our new 4 month old so I don't get much time on here these days.

I'm keeping my eyes on the cell out near the CR 135 Creedmoor area east of Buda. Rotation there a bit and strong gusts in that one. Looking like it will stay south of me but the lightning is intense over here.



Storm is very, very strong near Bergstrom International. ABIA is reporting winds 60+
Anyone in East Austin (Elgin, etc) needs to move to an interior room in their home right now. Rotation and intensity has picked up. Do not ignore the sirens.
Looks like 2 tornado warnings out in that area!


829
WFUS54 KEWX 200605
TOREWX
TXC021-453-200630-
/O.NEW.KEWX.TO.W.0007.170220T0605Z-170220T0630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 AM CST MON FEB 20 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CST

* AT 1205 AM CST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH
TORNADOES AND EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WERE LOCATED NEAR
MANOR, OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF AUSTIN BERGSTROM INT AP, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AUSTIN, PFLUGERVILLE, ELGIN, MANOR, WEBBERVILLE, CEDAR HILLS AND
BUTLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A BUILDING.



LAT...LON 3049 9756 3048 9755 3048 9751 3046 9746
3046 9744 3044 9742 3044 9740 3042 9738
3040 9732 3033 9719 3017 9756 3030 9769
3050 9758
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 240DEG 50KT 3027 9757

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN


Quoting 150. galvestonhurricane:

Anyone in East Austin (Elgin, etc) needs to move to an interior room in their home right now. Rotation and intensity has picked up. Do not ignore the sirens.
Quoting 151. swflurker:

Looks like 2 tornado warnings out in that area!




Velocities are strong near Elgin. Potential hook in the reflectivity. Hoping for another weakening period for this cluster. Radar is showing 80-90+ winds.
Quoting 143. swflurker:

Understand your dilemma. But you should be contacting your local politicians about that. We could help with that if we could.
Also, your power being off, I hope that isn't your greatest fear, because most of us, if not all, have been though it, and we are still typing today. I think it's time to you do something about a backup plan for this.

Peace/out





CenterPoint energy only works for the rich and powerful.
Here's a good link for you.

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/
Link

Quoting 153. pureet1948:



CenterPoint energy only works for the rich and powerful.
HRRR 05z I love you!

calkevin, worst of the cluster looks east of you and should clear you momentarily. Keep us posted
Quoting 156. galvestonhurricane:

calkevin, worst of the cluster looks east of you and should clear you momentarily. Keep us posted


Thanks Galveston. Yeah we look to be in the clear now and the latest warning for my area should expire any minute. I spent the last 15 minutes calming my wife down letting her know things look to be moving to the east of here. I've given heads up to some friends out in Taylor Thrall however.
calkevin77, congratulations!
Quoting 157. BaltimoreBrian:



From SPC:

...Eastern Texas into southwestern Arkansas/western Louisiana...
Models, including the latest Rapid Refresh, suggest that southerly
850 mb flow will remain on the order of 30-50 kt within a corridor
southward across the Ark-La-Tex into upper Texas coastal areas
through the 12-16Z time frame. This may contribute to an
environment at least marginally conducive to strong surface gusts
near any lingering vigorous thunderstorm activity. Thereafter, as
this belt of stronger flow continues to weaken and/or shift north of
the region, even with modest boundary layer recover by late
afternoon, potential for severe storm development seems minimal.

Doom, of course, depends on who gets the 5%. It's always the SW side of town, I'm afraid.
Austin TV station KXAN is reporting two structural collapses near Creedmore but there is no information on whether it was tornado caused or straight line winds up to 70 mph. No injuries although it was residential. The area had been in a tornado warning earlier. The tornado warning has moved northeast to southwest Milam county [Thorndale/Rockdale area]. The fast moving storms are rapidly exiting the area.
Ski weekend at Snowshoe, WV has been a bust. Will be back home Tuesday afternoon. Supposed to be 60°F tomorrow up here at 4,300'. Some times we've been here for President's Day weekend we've seen highs below 10°F.

We did some skiing on Friday but since then it's been too wet and warm--can't even make snow at night with lows in upper 30s. Hiking and hot tubs instead since.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
4:57 PM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (994 hPa) located at 15.7S 137.2E or 105 km east northeast of Borroloola and 225 km south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves very slowly south towards the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. The cyclone is expected to make landfall later tonight before weakening into a tropical low later on Tuesday and then heading west over the Carpentaria District.

GALES with GUSTS to 110 km/h are currently being experienced at Centre Island and the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Qld border.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast to Mornington Island tonight, then possibly further east to Burketown during Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 16.0S 137.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.3S 137.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.4S 137.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.6S 134.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The Centre Island AWS near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast continues to report sustained southerly gales with gusts 45-50 knots. The low level circulation center is partially exposed to the northeast of the cold cloud, but was obscured by cirrus at 06UTC. The circulation center from radar and surface obs is located east of Centre Island, although the radar center appears to be displaced southeast of the surface center.

Recent satellite imagery has shown a significant decrease in deep cloud cover near the low level circulation center, with a large curved band east of the center. FT=3.0, based on DT with a 0.6 wrap curved band, MET=2.0 and PAT=2.5.

The tropical low has moved slowly south under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid-latitude trough to the southeast. A ridge building to the south is expected to block further southward movement overnight or early Tuesday, causing the cyclone to stall close to the coast. Vertical wind shear is around 15-20 knots and is expected to increase slightly under the influence of an upper trough to the southwest. Outflow is good in the southern semicircle. Dry air is being entrained into the western sectors of the circulation, which together with land interaction is expected to cause a forecast weakening trend overnight.

From Wednesday the remnant tropical low is forecast to track towards the west overland south of the Top End.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper in the NT to Mornington Island in Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Mornington Island to Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island
Good morning from abroad. I think Eric Holthaus is concerned about the situation in California:
Link
Quoting 164. 999Ai2016:

Good morning from abroad. I think Eric Holthaus is concerned about the situation in California:
Link

Wow, this isn't comforting, ideed. Here a link directly to his email-letter link

They've poured a lot of concrete:
Oroville Dam: Dramatic photos of spillway damage
The Mercury News, Feb 19.
Quoting 16. Sfloridacat5:
How long will it be before Colorado will be experiencing serious flooding, mud slides, dam overflows, etc. just like California?
Historic Rainfall and Floods in ColoradoSept. 13, 2013.

Of course the article Xandra quoted was talking about the Colorado River, not the State of Colorado. Regarding the Colorado River as a whitewater boater (who floated the Grand Canyon in the spring of 2012, my avatar is from that trip) I follow what's happening there pretty closely. The two big reservoirs on the river, Lake Powell behind Glen Canyon Dam and Lake Mead behind Hoover Dam are so low from over 15 years of drought I doubt they could get refilled in just one year no matter how much precipitation there was in the watershed. Lake Powell is currently about 105 feet below full pool and holding about 46% of its full capacity of 24,322,000 acre feet. Lake Mead is currently about 130 feet below full pool and holding about 41.5% of its full capacity of 25,877,000 acre feet. So together they are currently holding about 21,927,000 acre feet out of a total capacity of about 50,199,000 acre feet.

Lake Powell water level information.
Lake Mead water level information.
Quoting 89. nrtiwlnvragn:



There is at least one paper that links drought and climate change, however the "permanent" part is in the 2060's. The denialisphere picks that up but always fails to note the timeframe, sort of like the increase in stronger hurricanes where the research indicates would happen at the end of the century.

Warming Climate is Deepening California Drought

Excerpt:

In fact, most projections say that warming will eventually increase California’s rainfall a bit. But the new study says that evaporation will overpower any increase in rain, and then some. This means that by around the 2060s, more or less permanent drought will set in, interrupted only by the rainiest years. More intense rainfall is expected to come in short bursts, then disappear.

The other thing that will be happening with AGW is a general reduction in snowfall (with occasional exceptions like this year) in the Sierra Nevada mountains and the Cascade Mountains (in Northern California, Oregon and Washington). These states depend on that snow pack slowly melting through the summer to keep stream flows up. June through September are generally pretty dry months on the west coast.
to barbamz @ 166 -
first off, I am not normally awake at this hour BUT I've just changed jobs so have mercy, it's so dark outside- ANYWAY-

PLEASE repost that letter from Eric Holthaus more often today as the day progresses. PLEASE. Posting it this early, it might get missed by our west-coasters.

peace ya'll
WOW what a swing of events from big storm to no storm to big storm again. Looking like our storm is back on again.

Euro

Good Morning. Here is the forecast for Conus today and current look. More rain and precip at the moment in the mid-section than in California. Also a weird split pattern with the jet, due to the cut-off low North of the Texas Panhandle, but perhaps that will help keep the t-storms a little less severe around TX and LA later this afternoon as heating increases.





From the Miami NWS Disco...

Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF are showing a cut off low developing at
the mid-levels late Tuesday as the system is over Louisiana. By
then, the system will have what could potentially be a potent line
of storms over the waters of the Gulf of Mexico. These storms will
push eastward as the parent low shifts south and east towards
Florida. The system will be knocking on our door early on
Wednesday, with the low hanging around creating unsettled
conditions until possibly as late as Friday.

Let`s point out a few things about this system and its forecast
trends as of late:
* Model guidance has shown some inconsistency over the last few
days
* The 00z GFS, which this time yesterday has more of mid-level
trough than a well-defined cut off low, is now trying to
produce a pretty ferocious system that takes a more northerly
path than previous runs
* The 00z ECMWF continues to show a cut off low, bringing
consistency for several days on that front, but has also started
to favor a more northerly path over the southern tip of the
peninsula of Florida

Based off this, the uncertainty remains fairly high with the
evolution of this system and how it will affect our region over
the coming week. The potential outcomes range from a strong to
severe weather threat from a squall line to a weakening system
that will struggle to produce thunderstorms. At this point, will
continue with the forecast trend we have carried over the last
several days which is to include thunderstorm mentions in the
forecast with healthy rain chances. The swings in solutions
between model runs will mean that it is *crucial* to continue
monitoring the forecast evolution of this system as it could pose
a potential threat to South Florida later this week.
But will note that we are starting to get some wind reports in Eastern Texas this morning (a few trees and power lines down); have to follow the dots during the day to see how well the front gets its act together in terms of t-storms reaching severe limits:


last3hours Filtered Reports Graphic

Average high for Tuscola, IL is 39 F for FEB 17th , 18th , & 19th.

What we got in those 3 days 71 F, 70 F, & 71 F respectively.
Next 3 days are expected to be at the same or above those values.



Quoting 171. Sfloridacat5:


No one predicted the California flooding. All we read were comments about the drought that was going to continue to get worse due to AGW.


No, what you've read are comments about projections for the later half of the century in regards to extremes and climate change, including droughts.

Quoting 171. Sfloridacat5:
Now we are worried about dams giving out and flooding.
Anyone that pretends to know what is going to happen with the climate in the U.S. over the next 5-10 years is just fooling themselves.


Climate change projections aren't weather reports, and 5-10 years is way to short for any climate projection to mean much. That's why climate scientists look at multi-decadal or longer time scales. Short term fluctuations are just too noisy.

When you read people discussing current extreme weather in regards to climate change, more often than not they're referring to the increasing extremes and frequency that is projected to happen over the course of the century. Trying to tie any specific event to climate change is speculation (without a thorough analysis).
Will finally note that the current SPC designation for a marginal threat of severe weather may have to be upgraded or expanded later if the t-storms really start to pick up; not suggesting a derecho type event but the current squall line that is setting up spans several hundred miles from the Gulf Coast/TX all the way to Kansas (and beyond if you consider the second low further to the North towards to the West of the Great Lakes region). Very active day across Conus today and over the next few days:









Quoting 171. Sfloridacat5:


No one predicted the California flooding. All we read were comments about the drought that was going to continue to get worse due to AGW.
Now we are worried about dams giving out and flooding.
Anyone that pretends to know what is going to happen with the climate in the U.S. over the next 5-10 years is just fooling themselves.


California getting chain atmospheric river storms and suffering severe flooding is a known recurrent hazard. This was modeled as the ARKstorm scenario. Not that this event will end up like that but the dynamics are no secret.

Link
Quoting 164. 999Ai2016:

Good morning from abroad. I think Eric Holthaus is concerned about the situation in California:
Link

Eric Holthaus:
@EricHolthaus

19 Feb 2017

California could face a historic flood tomorrow.

Please read and share—this storm is the real deal.

My take: https://t.co/MNS0RrOiDX

Hi all,

This is an urgent and important message, so I'll keep it short. If you're in a hurry, please read and retweet this message.

If you have family or friends in northern or central California—please get in touch with them on Monday morning, or sooner. The seriousness of the potential flood that is inbound on Monday and Tuesday cannot be overstated.

I just got off the phone with a NWS meteorologist at the Sacramento office, Bill Rasch, and he said they are increasingly concerned about the potential for the incoming atmospheric river to cause substantial or even historic flooding with little immediate notice. They are urging people to prepare to evacuate with less than 15 minutes warning, and expecting flooding in places that haven't flooded in "many years." As far as the this sort of dire wording, they have tentative plans to "take it up a notch" tomorrow—this is the real deal, a situation that likely hasn't hit California in decades, or maybe much longer.



Here's what is causing so much concern: If the atmospheric river stalls, there could be up to a foot of rain in a span of about 36 hours over places that are already flooding—that's a rainfall intensity that isn't expected more than once a century, or even more rare. At risk is the vast network of levees and dams and diversions that literally make modern California what it is, and protect hundreds of thousands of people. If this system is compromised, the scale of disaster would be among the worst in U.S. history. A dire 2011 New York Times magazine piece outlines the scenario. It's not pretty.

The implications of this flood would be huge: If the levee system is breached, Sacramento could have 30ft of flooding, and much of the state's water delivery system could be paralyzed by an influx of saltwater, including much of southern California. Two-thirds of people in the state could lose fresh water. That's not to mention the potential loss of life. Of course, this is not a given based on the latest weather forecast—but the fact that it can't be ruled out should cause everyone in the region to pay close attention.

This is something that should be wall-to-wall national coverage, but I haven't seen circulated much so far. Please help get the word out.

Thank you so much,
Eric
Atmos River:
@atmosriver 12h

#AtmosphericRiver forecast Mon am. PWV >30mm at landfall; few ARs for month of Feb since 1996 exceed this #CAwx #CAstorm #CAflood #NorCal

Harsh weather in Afghanistan kills dozens in blizzard, rainstorms
by Reuters, Monday, 20 February 2017 12:44 GMT
As many as 50 people have died in storms over the past three days in Afghanistan, including 25 shepherds lost in a blizzard, a government disaster management official said on Monday. ...
184. EvPv
In 20 years of data at my house in Liberty, Maine the record high for Feb 19 was 43.3° set in 2013. The high yesterday (2/19) was 55.3° to beat the record by 12°.



Click to enlarge.
From Cal OES:

AERIAL VIDEO: Northern California’s Super Saturation as Even More Storms Roll into Region

Brad Alexander Feb 19, 2017 5:40 pm

Today the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, with a lift by the California National Guard, toured the flooded and super saturated areas of Northern California along the #Sacramento River. Below is raw video from an aerial survey of the conditions of rivers and levees in the greater Sacramento area, heading towards Colusa County.



This was shot from a California National Guard helicopter carrying emergency management officials responsible for coordinating the state’s response to the winter weather impacts. Video shot on Sunday, February 19, 2017 by Cal OES.

Incoming Storm System

According the Sacramento office of the National Weather Serivce, the incoming storm system will bring #NorCal gusty conditions for the next several days. The strongest winds will occur Monday night and downed trees and potentially long lasting power outages.

Northern California’s rivers are expected to be in flood or danger stage for much of the early part of this week. Including Sacramento, Feather, Tuolumne, San Joaquin, Cosumnes, Mokelumne, Merced rivers and the Yolo Bypass.

Be flood ready and prepared with the potential for short notice of an evacuation order by local authorities. Be sure to check your local area for wireless emergency alerts that can come straight to your phone!

amazing success for space x yesterday. i think the reentry of the fuselage caused a single sonic boom here.
Besides Tuesday we'll be having 60's and 70's for the rest of the week...wow...I can't say that I'm looking forward to summer.
The squall line is starting to loose a little bit of the punch we saw earlier this morning across Texas (and overland) but the t-storms are sill active over the water:




 
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #26
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
11:05 PM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (998 hPa) located at 16.1S 137.5E or 130 km east of Borroloola and 185 km west northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. The cyclone is expected to weaken into a tropical low overnight before heading west over the Carpentaria District later on Tuesday and on Wednesday.

GALES with GUSTS to 90 km/h are currently being experienced over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, but not including Mornington Island and Borroloola.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING may continue to occur over the far eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland tonight and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next day or so, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 16.6S 137.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 16.8S 137.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.4S 136.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.7S 133.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Winds at Centre Island AWS near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast have eased below 30 knots in the last few hours. The low level circulation center has been difficult to located due to extensive cirrus at 1200 UTC. Low level center location close to the Gulf of Carpentaria coast was based on interpolation from recent radar images, peripheral surface observations and SSMI'S microwave image at 0935UTC.

Recent satellite imagery has shown a significant decrease in deep cloud cover near the low level circulation center, with deep convection well removed to the east of the center. FT=1.5, based on MET and PAT, with CI held at 2.5 with clear signs of weakening.

The tropical cyclone has moved slowly south under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid-latitude trough to the southeast. A ridge building to the south is expected to block further southward movement during Tuesday, causing the system to stall close to the coast. Vertical wind shear is around 15-20 knots and is expected to increase slightly under the influence of an upper trough to the southwest. Outflow is good in the southern semicircle. Dry air is being entrained into the western and northern sectors of the circulation, which together with land interaction is expected to cause further weakening overnight.

From later Tuesday and on Wednesday the remnant tropical low is forecast to track towards the west overland south of the Top End as southeasterly steering winds establish.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port McArthur in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, not including Borroloola and Mornington Island
xandra and barbamz...as always great posts
it was a yr ago winston the worst ever was battering Fiji.
SFO composite loop

Quoting 192. islander101010:

it was a yr ago winston the worst ever was battering Fiji.

Yes:
A year after Cyclone Winston, Fiji calls for global action on climate change
SBS - Feb. 20.

Fiji - One Year on from Cyclone Winston, many still in need as reconstruction efforts continue
ReliefWeb - Feb 17.
The only active storm in the South Pacific today is Alfred on the Coast of Australia which is about to dissipate after landfall:










Current Flash Flood warnings and Flood Advisories for Bay Area:
https://twitter.com/NWSBayArea

NWS Sacramento:
https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento

All Flash Flood Warnings:
https://twitter.com/NWSFlashFlood

NOAA's National Weather Service
Current Alert Summary for Northern CA Counties
Quoting 180. ProPoly:



California getting chain atmospheric river storms and suffering severe flooding is a known recurrent hazard. This was modeled as the ARKstorm scenario. Not that this event will end up like that but the dynamics are no secret.

Link

Person on my iList projects ignorance.

Prediction of both deeper droughts and worse deluges were and are the norm, of course. Not just in California, but basically everywhere. It should come as no surprise that the Californian hyperdrought would be smashed by some hyperrecord precipitation. In the longer run (couple of decades, max) California will tend to total arid. Interspersed with some staggering rain events, of course.
The Fri-Sun storm in Soo Cal left 1.16" of rain at mi casa. A nice storm by Soo Cal standards! Was hoping for a bit more.....but still very welcome.

From NWS San Diego....other locales, especially south facing hills/mountains fared much better.....Rainfall totals Fri-Sun Link

Link
Quoting 198. Neapolitan:

From Eric Holthaus on Twitter a short while ago:




San Francisco, CA
SOMA | Report | Change Station


Active Advisory: Areal Flood Advisory, Areal Flood Watch, High Wind Warning, Wind Advisory, Special Statement Active Notice: Areal Flood Advisory, Areal Flood Watch

San Francisco Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsAreal Flood Advisory, Areal Flood WatchIssued: 7:35 AM PST Feb. 20, 2017 – National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in the San Francisco Bay area has issued
a

* urban and small stream flood advisory for...
Napa County in northern California...
Sonoma County in northern California...
San Francisco County in northern California...
Marin County in northern California...
northwestern San Mateo County in northern California...

* until 1030 am PST

* at 734 am PST, local law enforcement reported heavy rain causing
urban and small stream flooding around the North Bay and San
Francisco peninsula. Additional rainfall will continue to produce
urban and roadway flooding.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
San Francisco, Santa Rosa, Daly City, San Mateo, Napa, South San
Francisco, Petaluma, San Rafael, Novato, San Bruno, Rohnert Park,
Pacifica, Burlingame, Millbrae, Windsor, American Canyon, Mill
Valley, San Anselmo, Larkspur and Healdsburg.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.


Lat... Lon 3877 12354 3885 12282 3867 12261 3871 12246
      3881 12237 3886 12240 3883 12228 3833 12206
      3832 12221 3815 12220 3816 12240 3813 12235
      3811 12249 3794 12251 3757 12232 3758 12249
      3782 12252 3802 12286 3800 12302 3826 12297


Mm


Best to find the snow level to see how much snow on the ground will melt which is a big part of the flooding issue when these AR episodes occur. Looks like the forecast is for 6500-8000 feet north to south.

From NWS Reno who does the forecast for the Sierra's.....Link to Forecast Discussion

Link
Video from today already? Umm, fingers crossed!


Edit: Follow-up tweet from the dam

https://public.tableau.com/en-us/s/gallery/orovil le-dam-monitoring-data-cdec

Warm front came through early this AM with strong gusty winds and moderate rain. Lake Tahoe (6250 ft) jumped to 40 F around 3:00 AM. Currently (8:00 AM) moderate rain up there, but only light showers down here in the SF Bay Area. Forecast has rain and winds increasing once again as the cold front and a vigorous upper low approach through the day preceded by the warm sector low level jet plus an upper level jet max, all feeding on a narrow concentrated plume of subtropical moisture.

Latest surface analysis. Click to enlarge. Source.
Possible good news!

From NWS Reno......hope the snow level stays as low as possible! Hope you fare well my Northern California friends!

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
830 AM PST Mon Feb 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Updating for a couple things this morning. First, snow levels are
around 6500-7000 feet from Tahoe to Mono this morning so lowered
them through mid afternoon. The heavy precip already occurring
will keep them there for the next few hours before the main warm
air arrives this afternoon. Still, with heavy precip already
occurring, they may not want to come up much at all. Given this,
snow amounts may be much higher in the 7000-7500 foot range.
San Diego on the southern fringes of the AR up north and NOT expecting much of anything from that system. Orange County, Los Angeles County will fare a bit better as far as rain is concerned.

Next hope for a storm in Soo Cal is a ULL/UL Trof digging down the west coast into Soo Cal in the Sat-Sun timeframe. Models are somewhat flippity floppy on the system currently and will need to wait a bit longer for any certainty one way or the other.
Now, them would be some kinda rip roaring winds!

From NWS Reno

In the Sierra, the passes and ridges
will see extreme winds today through Tuesday with gusts to 150 mph
possible at times tonight. High winds and heavy snowfall in the
high elevations will create whiteout conditions.
Reservoirs feeding Lake Oroville are filled to brink as more rain rolls in
SacBee, February 20, 2017 8:26 AM (with an aerial video of the latest work on the emergency spillway)

Collection of more news from this site:
http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/water -and-drought/
Even in Soo Cal 2-3 inches of rain for the next week if GFS verifies and 6-14 inches in the Sierra's with a lot of 3-6 inch totals in coastal/inland Northern California....Simply WOW!

These snow totals just boggle my mind! And 3-6 FEET more to come from a single current storm! My goodness.......and this is kinda a La Nina year?

Link
No rest for the weary; the rain, and snow, for parts of Cali and Pacific NW, really picked up since earlier this morning:


Wow what an awful forecast. So how does a day forecasted to get 2.5 inches not get rain.

Estimated 5 inches and we will be lucky to see an inch and a half.

Seems like people rather get everyone all worried about storms they forget to do a proper forecast.

Wunderground has bee 100% useless over the last 3 days. How can the forecast be so wrong?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 200. HurricaneHunterJoe:

The Fri-Sun storm in Soo Cal left 1.16" of rain at mi casa. A nice storm by Soo Cal standards! Was hoping for a bit more.....but still very welcome.

From NWS San Diego....other locales, especially south facing hills/mountains fared much better.....Rainfall totals Fri-Sun Link

Link

I got 1.26" here just North of Riverside, CA.
219. vis0

Quoting 216. Sfbayareaman:

Wow what an awful forecast. So how does a day forecasted to get 2.5 inches not get rain.

Estimated 5 inches and we will be lucky to see an inch and a half.

Seems like people rather get everyone all worried about storms they forget to do a proper forecast.

Wunderground has bee 100% useless over the last 3 days. How can the forecast be so wrong?


Not discussing the micro weather situation as to the Bay area as that's always been difficult then add to that this::

The forecast  as to the energy is correctly presented, how the energy is passed around is the trouble and that trouble has been multiplied by many folds when one changes the cooking temperature.

cooking?

If one adds the correct ingredients to a simple cake, but raised the  amount of moisture in that cake and amount of heat via oven this simple 3 step process (add ingredients, mix and cook) can have detrimental outcomes. 


From burnt, collapsed, watery taste, bland taste, heated too fast pops cake (in microwaves...
[vis0 tangent start]
again i've always deterred the use microwaves as they damage humans "macrowaves" not a joke.  Heart, brain certain glands have a spin in their energy flow (can only be detected by certain brains or non electrical thus non grounded devices and that hasn't been invented yet, i say try those Russian old wind up movie cams, left clues on my now deleted blogs, search servers) microwaves damage that spin If microwave ovens where correctly built they have a more solid skin and all opening faced down towards true ground via hollow walls (don't want it sent to neighbors heads below...cause its yer head that is below yer neighbors upstairs) , food plates would slide in and up, think the reverse of those 1970s VHS top-feed decks. )   [vis0 tangent end]

BACK to the cake i'd still nyum nyum nyum it, but now think energy in the atmosphere comes from dozens!! of main sources and create millions if not billions of choices. 
In direction alone if one just counted a degree from the LOWS center that's 369 directions and i am not even thinking in 3D.  So simply state the warming globe is making  WxModels predict with lower definition  as the WxModels are predicting with the old atmosphere and the new atmosphere keeps being changed the result is what you see as in greater odds of a surprise. 
NOAA, NASA, scientists, inventors are trying to keep up by developing higher definition abilities to stay on tune as to the new atmosphere but that requires money so programs can be tweaked, workers can build the PC boards to physical body...yet funding is being threatened and cuts are being promised.

If you look at a neighborhood a few miles away notice it had 2 inches predicted but so far 4 inches fell.

therefore one has 2 main choices 1) go over there and carry the amount you need back or 2) fix the atmosphere so your local predictions can be more accurate.
Quoting 198. Neapolitan:

From Eric Holthaus on Twitter a short while ago:




From 95 to the east, the Sierras from Goldfield on north looked like Mount Doom without the orcs or lightning.

I had little trouble with my drive except for fog near the peak at Goldfield, and lots of rain from Hawthorne through to Fallon.
Quoting 200. HurricaneHunterJoe:

The Fri-Sun storm in Soo Cal left 1.16" of rain at mi casa. A nice storm by Soo Cal standards! Was hoping for a bit more.....but still very welcome.

From NWS San Diego....other locales, especially south facing hills/mountains fared much better.....Rainfall totals Fri-Sun Link

Link


It took out a pretty big tree at the cemetery, Pacific View Memorial Gardens. Fortunately not one over Mom's plot.