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January 2017: Earth's 3rd Warmest January on Record; Lake Oroville Water Levels Drop

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:38 PM GMT on February 16, 2017

January 2017 was the planet's third warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. Along with NOAA, NASA also rated January 2017 as the third warmest January on record. The only warmer Januarys were 2016 (highest) and 2007 (second highest). Global ocean temperatures during January 2017 were the second warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the third warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in January 2017 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the sixth warmest in the 39-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).

It's remarkable that Earth saw its third warmest January on record without any help from El Niño, which works to raise global air temperatures by exporting heat from the oceans. Sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific rose into the cool side of the neutral range during January, although a La Niña Advisory was still in effect. In contrast, the warmest and second warmest Januarys (2007 and 2016) both occurred during an El Niño event.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2017, the 3rd warmest January for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Three of the six continents had at least a top six warm January, with South America having its second warmest January since continental records began in 1910 (behind 2016.) Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

No billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2017
No billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, according to the January 2017 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most destructive weather-related event during the month was Chile’s worst wildfires in modern history, which killed eleven people and cost at least $890 million. The deadliest weather-related disaster of January was the rainy season flooding in the southern African countries of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, which killed at least 179 people.


Figure 2. Smoke settles over Santiago, Chile on January 20, 2017. January fires in Chile cost the nation at least $890 million, and killed eleven people. Pudahuel Airport in western Santiago on January 20 hit 37.7°C (99.9°F), the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Santiago metropolitan area. Santiago Observatory (with records back to 1866) set its all-time heat record on January 25, 2017 with 37.4°C. Image credit: Martin Bernetti/AFP/Getty Images.

So Long, La Niña; Hello again, El Niño?
In its February monthly advisory, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) warmed to 0.3°C below average during early February; SSTs of 0.5°C or more below average in this region are required to be classified as weak La Niña conditions. Over the past week, SSTs have warmed rapidly in the Niño 3.4 region to more than 0.5°C above average but this surge may be temporary (Figure 3). We would need to see sustained warmth for many weeks at this level before crying, “El Niño is coming!” NOAA forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. For the September - November 2017 period, they predict a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, a 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of an El Niño. The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring, and the latest May-June-July run of the UKMET model predicted a moderate El Niño by early summer. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by bringing strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears storms apart.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) have warmed above the 0.5°C above average threshold over the past week; SSTs of 0.5°C or more above average in this region are required to be classified as weak El Niño conditions. This recent surge in SSTs may be temporary; as Micheal Ventrice noted on Twitter today, there was a westerly wind burst over the past week that helped fuel this warming, but near-normal easterly trade winds have resumed. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest January extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during January 2017 was the lowest in the 39-year satellite record, beating the record set in January 2016, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Very warm air invaded the Arctic in mid-January, part of a trend we’ve seen all winter. A drifting buoy located near the Pole, at about 87°N latitude, has recorded temperatures at or above freezing three times since November: once in November 2016, once in December 2016, and once on February 10. In a February 10 interview in the Washington Post, atmospheric physics expert Kent Moore of the University of Toronto noted that these types of anomalous warming events have been recorded since the 1950s, but only occurred once or twice a decade. Record arctic sea ice loss in recent years is allowing these events to occur more frequently. Moore said: “As that sea ice moves northward, there’s a huge reservoir of heat over the north Atlantic. As we lose the sea ice, it allows essentially this reservoir of warmth to move closer to the pole.”

Notable global heat and cold marks set for January 2017
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 41.5°C (106.7°F) at N'Djamena, Chad, 24 January
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -58.7°C (-73.7°F) at Summit, Greenland, 12 January
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.0°C (116.6°F) at Bourke Airport, Australia, 13 January
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -45.3°C (-49.5°F) at Dome A, Antarctica, 31 January
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in January 2017
Durres (Albania) min. -9.0°C, 8 January
Vlore (Albania) min. -9.4°C, 8 January
Dudince (Slovakia) min. -30.5°C, 8 January
Apia (Samoa) max. 35.2°C, 9 January
Santiago Airport (Chile) max. 37.7°C, 20 January
Isla de Maipo (Chile) max. 37.9°C, 20 January
Santiago Observatory (Chile) max. 37.4°C, 25 January
Rapel (Chile) max. 36.8°C, 25 January
Linares (Chile) max. 41.8°C, 26 January
Chillan (Chile) max. 41.5°C, 26 January
Quinchamali (Chile) max. 43.0°C, 26 January
Los Angeles (Chile) max. 42.2°C, 26 January 
Parral (Chile) max. 40.8°C, 26 January
Concepcion Airport (Chile) max. 34.1°C, 26 January
Cauquenes (Chile) max. 45.0°C, 26 January;  (new national record high for Chile)
Robinson Crusoe Island-Juan Fernandez (Chile) max. 28.8°C, 26 January
Trelew (Argentina) max. 42.2°C, 27 January
Puerto Madryn (Argentina) max. 43.4°C, 27 January

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

One all-time national heat record set in January 2017
One nation set an all-time record for hottest temperature in recorded history in 2017: Chile (see above). Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records.


Figure 4. Departures from average temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for the contiguous United States in January 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

U.S. in January: Warmer and wetter than average
Last month the contiguous U.S. saw its 18th warmest and 9th wettest January in 123 years of record-keeping, as reported last week by NOAA/NCEI. Warmer-than-average temperatures covered nearly all of the nation east of the Rockies during January as a whole, although there was considerable variability, including a sharp cold spell in the second week of the month. Most states along a swath from Texas to Maine saw a top-ten-warmest January, although no state set a record. Only two states (Washington and Montana) experienced precipitation well below average, while ten states from California to Georgia saw the month place among their top ten wettest Januarys.


Figure 5. Predicted 7-day rainfall amounts in northern California beginning on Thursday, February 16. Image credit: NWS Sacramento.

Water levels in Lake Oroville continue to drop even as rains hit California
The water level at the troubled Lake Oroville reservoir in California continued to drop on Thursday morning, even as rainy weather moved into the region. The lake level fell by nearly 5 feet in the 12-hour period ending at 6 a.m. PST Thursday, to 869 feet, about 30 feet below its capacity. According to reports from the Sacramento Bee, state water officials continued to release 100,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water from the lake’s main spillway, and damage to that spillway has not worsened. Water was flowing into the lake at 34,000 cfs Thursday morning. About one half inch of rain is expected in the area on Thursday, with another half-inch on Friday (the rains will be much heavier in Southern California, see embedded tweet below.) Dam operators are expecting inflows of up to 50,000 cfs through Friday, so the lake level will continue to fall as long as the main spillway continues to release 100,000 cfs of water. During last week’s heavy rains that caused the reservoir to overflow, inflow peaked at 197,000 cfs. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, another very wet Pacific storm system is expected to dump at least three inches of rain on the area. This is about the same amount of rain that fell during the storm that caused inflow rates to reach 197,000 cfs last week. If the upstream rainfall amounts also end up being similar in magnitude to last week’s storm, we can expect Lake Oroville to begin rising by Monday. However, assuming that dam operators can continuously release 100,000 cfs of water from the reservoir during the coming week, it appears unlikely that the lake will reach 900 feet and force usage of the emergency spillway again.

Climatesignals.org has an excellent summary of how climate change may have contributed to the Lake Oroville Dam emergency.

We'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson



Climate Summaries Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


Strong zonal flow across the Pacific, with a sharp turn developing along the California coast.
While people in the US look at these monthly temps now like they are normal; they are not. And it's every month, every year now. Just like how people look at what's happening in the Trump administration like it's normal when it's tearing at the very fabric of America. We have come to accept far too much far too easily without it setting off any alarms for so many of us. We've been walking with the canary for a long time now without ever looking down. It's been dead for a long time. It's time to run.


Pulling forward from last entry...

Great Lakes should be peaking with ice cover right about now...and instead nothing. Given the heat wave that is going to engulf the region next week what little ice cover is left will be gone. Will be interesting to see how fast they warm up as spring approaches.
Have there been any assessments yet on how to fix the spillways?
Thank You Dr. for the detailed update; my takeaway from this summary is that these recent past Winter periods, through the current one, are probably the best indicators of AGW issues for the Northern Hemisphere when you factor in these very warm temps in December and January; this observation does not take into account the numerous intense heat waves that we have seen across the globe during the respective summers in each Hemisphere and warmer SSTs across the board in numerous regions..............As regular people, we expect a lot of heat in the summer but heat in the Winter certainly catches your attention.
Quoting 2. DeepSeaRising:

While people in the US look at these monthly temps now like they are normal; they are not. And it's every month, every year now. ...


IMO, We don't even need another El Nino for the next record-warm year. These January temps in the wake of a La Nina should make it clear that the warming will ... Pat, time for the Hydra?
Quoting 3. RunningTrauma:



Pulling forward from last entry...

Great Lakes should be peaking with ice cover right about now...and instead nothing. Given the heat wave that is going to engulf the region next week what little ice cover is left will be gone. Will be interesting to see how fast they warm up as spring approaches.
way back in time when I was researching Earth's weather history,the Earth goes thru these harsh periods...a Blasting heated warm Earth is almost always followed by an Ice Age..it seems Mankind is really in for it, thru the next several hundred or thousands of years or more then the Earth freezes up again..and then possibly a new Life form emerges and mankind per se will be just a memory
Quoting 7. LargoFl:

way back in time when I was researching Earth's weather history,the Earth goes thru these harsh periods...a Blasting heated warm Earth is almost always followed by an Ice Age..it seems Mankind is really in for it, thru the next several hundred or thousands of years or more then the Earth freezes up again..and then possibly a new Life form emerges and mankind per se will be just a memory


way back in time....?

After that, u lost me.


Global warming already surrendering to new administration! After failures of 2014-2016! World temperatures are dropping! Great!

2,500 cm of sea level rise by 2500 CE. Gonna make it happen. It's gonna be great.
I also expect the 2017 to rank about the same way, around the 3rd position , behind 2016 for sure,probably behind 2015. There could be a "fight" for the 3rd-4th places between 2017 and 2014,although I'd inclined for a 3rd position. Just a bet.
Quoting 9. BaltimoreBrian:

Global warming already surrendering to new administration! After failures of 2014-2016! World temperatures are dropping! Great!

2,500 cm of sea level rise by 2500 CE. Gonna make it happen. It's gonna be great.
Brian, 25 meters of sea level rise by 2500? Of course that is almost 400 years from now, but still...
Quoting 3. RunningTrauma:



Pulling forward from last entry...

Great Lakes should be peaking with ice cover right about now...and instead nothing. Given the heat wave that is going to engulf the region next week what little ice cover is left will be gone. Will be interesting to see how fast they warm up as spring approaches.


When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work. Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what happened.




The Great Lakes region froze. It was a terrible, no good, very bad thing. Up here in the UP, frost levels went to 12 feet in 13/14, freezing many pipes and making the entire region frozen for the next year because the ground took so long for the thaw and Superior water temps were suppressed. Marquette NWS had a record streak of below freezing temps (if I remember correctly, it was above 90 days) and the snowpiles in my yard were so high that I couldn't throw the snow over them anymore.

So, just 2-3 winters ago, Superior completely froze over and most of the Great Lakes were ice covered as well. Go ahead and blame GW for this year but frankly I won't listen. For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.
Quoting 11. CaneFreeCR:

Brian, 25 meters of sea level rise by 2500? Of course that is almost 400 years from now, but still...
483 years actually.
UK - Met Office :

2017: another very warm year for global temperatures

The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2017 will be another very warm year globally but is unlikely to be a new record due to the absence of additional warming from El Nino.

Gavin Schmidt (NASA-GISS) on Twitter (Dec 21) :

"For context, this would make 2017 likely 3rd warmest (after 2016/15) (perhaps 2nd thru 5th) in instrumental record. 3rd yr > 1 C above PI" (Pre-Industrial).

Berkeley Earth:

14. If a new El Nino develops early this year, could these forecasts underestimate the likely range of 2017 global temps?*
*Or said differently, could an early El Nino shift this range upward?
"Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.0°C (116.6°F) at Bourke Airport, Australia, 13 January." More recently on 11 February, Hay Airport in NSW recorded 47.1°C and Penrith in Western Sydney recorded 46.9°C. Many other locations in NSW officially recorded highs between 45°C and 47°C on 11 and 12 February. The average maximum temperature across NSW on 11 February was around 44.1°C either tying or just eclipsing the previous record of 44.1°C set on 14 January 1939 (this was an El Niño year with very severe and widespread drought; Australia's Black Friday bushfires raged on 13 January 1939). These figures are from a statement issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology on 13 February.
Quoting 12. SuperYooper:



When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work. Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what happened.




The Great Lakes region froze. It was a terrible, no good, very bad thing. Up here in the UP, frost levels went to 12 feet in 13/14, freezing many pipes and making the entire region frozen for the next year because the ground took so long for the thaw and Superior water temps were suppressed. Marquette NWS had a record streak of below freezing temps (if I remember correctly, it was above 90 days) and the snowpiles in my yard were so high that I couldn't throw the snow over them anymore.

So, just 2-3 winters ago, Superior completely froze over and most of the Great Lakes were ice covered as well. Go ahead and blame GW for this year but frankly I won't listen. For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.


AGW is happening and it will be a disaster. But yes there is a lot of natural variability and blaming any one event on AGW is not scientifically valid. Changing statistics of these events though (more flash and areal flooding, more global average heat records being set, species ranges shifting north and species extinctions from rapid changes, changing ice coverage, increased ocean acidity,, these are strong indicators it's happening.

Most of North America has had an exceptionally warm winter. MOST of this is due to natural variability.. the jet stream lined up right this year for warmth and in a slightly warmer world four years hence it might line up like 2014 and North America will be cold (but maybe not quite as cold as the 1980s, 1930s or 1890s or 2014) while the globe overall continues to warm.

There are places where AGW has already crushed natural variability. The Arctic coast in autumn is one such region. All autumns from here on out are going to be warmer than normal there with the difference being between slightly above normal in a cold pattern and way way above normal in a warm one. Variability in winter is so huge we can't make the same claim about winters there..

YET. (stay tuned!)


Quoting 13. BaltimoreBrian:

483 years actually.
You're right -- I slipped a disc somewhere in there. So that's not so bad, only 5 cm per year average, and most will come at the end probably, meaning that for now, what, me worry? :-)
Quoting 11. CaneFreeCR:

Brian, 25 meters of sea level rise by 2500? Of course that is almost 400 years from now, but still...
Believe me, it's going to be great! Believe me.
About Great Lakes winter ice cover, what's the trend? What was the average peak ice cover in the 1980s, 1990s, 2000s and the decade so far?
From Reuters

Thu Feb 16, 2017

EPA staff told to prepare for Trump executive orders: sources


Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt testifies before a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee confirmation hearing on his nomination to be administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency in Washington, U.S., January 18, 2017. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

Staff at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency have been told that President Donald Trump is preparing a handful of executive orders to reshape the agency, to be signed once a new administrator is confirmed, two sources who attended the meeting told Reuters on Wednesday.

A senior EPA official who had been briefed by members of the Trump administration mentioned the executive orders at a meeting of staffers in the EPA's Office of General Counsel on Tuesday, but did not provide details about what the orders would say, said the sources, who asked not to be named.

"It was just a heads-up to expect some executive orders, that's it," one of the sources said.

The second source said attendees at the meeting were told Trump would sign between two and five executive orders.

Trump administration officials did not respond to requests for comment.

[...]

Trump's pick to run the EPA, Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, is scheduled to face a Senate confirmation vote on Friday, according to a Senate aide, after a contentious hearing last month in which lawmakers pressed Pruitt on his ties to the oil industry. Pruitt sued the EPA more than a dozen times to block its regulations while he was the top prosecutor for the oil and gas producing state.

[...]

On Tuesday, Rep. Lamar Smith, chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology, asked the EPA's inspector general to investigate whether EPA staff were using encrypted messages to coordinate efforts to derail the new administration's agenda, in possible violation of federal records laws.

Earlier this month, Rep. Matt Gaetz introduced a 45-word bill to "terminate" the EPA - a piece of legislation that is not expected to pass.

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 15. 999Ai2016:

14. If a new El Nino develops early this year, could these forecasts underestimate the likely range of 2017 global temps?*
*Or said differently, could an early El Nino shift this range upward?

yes
Just for LowerCal: an article from yesterday



!!! Beach bash: Last year's El Niño resulted in unprecedented erosion of Pacific coastline - winter beach erosion on the Pacific coast was 76 percent above normal, and that most beaches in California eroded beyond historical extremes.


I really do think we'll have 2,500 cm of sea level rise by 2500 CE. Greenland and West Antarctica are half that. Another meter from mountain glaciers which will almost all be gone. Another meter from thermal expansion. And a lot of melt from East Antarctica Ice Sheet, like into the Amery Ice Shelf discharge zone and other places. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet won't be gone in 2500 CE. But it will be going, going...


This is needed but not all in one day.
Quoting 23. BaltimoreBrian:

Just for LowerCal: an article from yesterday



!!! Beach bash: Last year's El Niño resulted in unprecedented erosion of Pacific coastline - winter beach erosion on the Pacific coast was 76 percent above normal, and that most beaches in California eroded beyond historical extremes.


I really do think we'll have 2,500 cm of sea level rise by 2500 CE. Greenland and West Antarctica are half that. Another meter from mountain glaciers which will almost all be gone. Another meter from thermal expansion. And a lot of melt from East Antarctica Ice Sheet, like into the Amery Ice Shelf discharge zone and other places. The East Antarctic Ice Sheet won't be gone in 2500 CE. But it will be going, going...
Brian, I actually do believe you. It was not you I was mocking. ;^)
Our forecast for our ski weekend is disappointing, especially at over 4,200' in West Virginia. Jeep is packed and we're ready to roll. Back Tuesday.
Temperature-wise, Finland was like mini-globe in January: warmer than usual, but not record-breaking. Depending on location, departures from monthly average varied from +1.5C to +4.7C. But precipitation in western part of the country was only 20%-40% of normal. As a result, many places are currently without snow cover, especially at the coastline.

Northernmost such place: Kokkola.
Normal arrival of permanent snow cover: mid-December
Normal loss of permanent snow cover: early April
Normal snow depth on Feb 15: ~30 cm
Following pic from nearest road camera, taken earlier today.



No big snow events in sight. Given the effect of snow on albedo, I wouldn't be surprised, if we break records in March and April.
Wow, jumped from 47 before lunch to 57 around 1:20CST in S C IL. Started this a.m. at 27, last freezing temp in the 10 day, w/ a few 40s then 5 days of 50s for lows (In mid late FEB?!) before dropping back to 30s at end of 10 day. Pressure has dropped from a couple ticks below 30" this a.m. to 29.93" when 47 to 20.83" now. S winds have picked up a little more as well, around 10 w/ 20 gusts.

Edit: Should've went in Jan. Brian! :) Have fun!
29. SuzK
Quoting 12. SuperYooper:



When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work. Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what happened.




The Great Lakes region froze. It was a terrible, no good, very bad thing. Up here in the UP, frost levels went to 12 feet in 13/14, freezing many pipes and making the entire region frozen for the next year because the ground took so long for the thaw and Superior water temps were suppressed. Marquette NWS had a record streak of below freezing temps (if I remember correctly, it was above 90 days) and the snowpiles in my yard were so high that I couldn't throw the snow over them anymore.

So, just 2-3 winters ago, Superior completely froze over and most of the Great Lakes were ice covered as well. Go ahead and blame GW for this year but frankly I won't listen. For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.


I hear you, and am a native Michigander myself, though not UP except through my Finnish ancestry. The thing that occurs to me about your comment is that in an area perpetually enduring extreme cold, why then didn't they plant those pipes deeper underground in the beginning? There was nothing normal about 2014-15 and there is nothing normal happening now, particularly with a heat wave coming down from northern Canada on the way. Don't let it affect your sanity! Magical thinking isn't the answer (or so I keep telling myself). If you pay close attention to daily forecasts, you will see the reality appears to be that our atmosphere is already so changed that barely one forecast turns out to be correct. Sure we might expect a few cockeyed forecasts. Yet every day, every week, every month, for a while now, the weather overwhelms the forecast by about as much difference as the CO2 being added daily to the atmosphere. My husband and I comment on it frequently. No snow tonight? Hurray! What, its snowing? Booo. What, no rain today? An hour later its raining. The world's weather is in the throes of change, and there appears to be not one computer calculation that can predict anything accurately anymore. They come close, sometimes. But when you are 40 miles from home and an ice storm appears out of nowhere, not having been forecast yet again, you really have to ask yourself if anyone knows what is really happening up there, including the supercomputers. The changes are outpacing the calculations.
P.S. I love this blog, and I'm really glad we are focusing on all weather and not only Florida hurricane potentials. Thank you everyone who gives it their all, including Dr Masters and Mr Hensen.
Today's update from the Aussies

Increased chance of El Niño by spring

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral. International models suggest this is likely to continue through the southern autumn. All but one model indicates a steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Five models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached by July 2017; however, model accuracy at this time of year is generally low. Therefore ENSO-neutral and El Niño are, at this stage, considered possible, with La Niña very unlikely for the second half of 2017.
What many of us are saying is that back to back years, or very strong El Ninos' in one particular year, in this current AGW regime can be devastating in terms of delivering additional heat [from] the oceans into the mid and upper latitudes..................Could make the difference in any given year at many different levels including in terms of ice recovery (or greater loss) in the Arctic due to warm bursts.

And one very good example of this is coral bleaching around the world (in the tropics) when you combine warming SST's with a strong El Nino period.
Quoting 29. SuzK:



I hear you, and am a native Michigander myself, though not UP except through my Finnish ancestry. The thing that occurs to me about your comment is that in an area perpetually enduring extreme cold, why then didn't they plant those pipes deeper underground in the beginning? There was nothing normal about 2014-15 and there is nothing normal happening now, particularly with a heat wave coming down from northern Canada on the way. Don't let it affect your sanity! Magical thinking isn't the answer (or so I keep telling myself). If you pay close attention to daily forecasts, you will see the reality appears to be that our atmosphere is already so changed that barely one forecast turns out to be correct. Sure we might expect a few cockeyed forecasts. Yet every day, every week, every month, for a while now, the weather overwhelms the forecast by about as much difference as the CO2 being added daily to the atmosphere. My husband and I comment on it frequently. No snow tonight? Hurray! What, its snowing? Booo. What, no rain today? An hour later its raining. The world's weather is in the throes of change, and there appears to be not one computer calculation that can predict anything accurately anymore. They come close, sometimes. But when you are 40 miles from home and an ice storm appears out of nowhere, not having been forecast yet again, you really have to ask yourself if anyone knows what is really happening up there, including the supercomputers. The changes are outpacing the calculations.
P.S. I love this blog, and I'm really glad we are focusing on all weather and not only Florida hurricane potentials. Thank you everyone who gives it their all, including Dr Masters and Mr Hensen.


I ask the related question, why did the ground freeze to 12 feet when in other winters comparably cold it had never frozen to this depth. In Minnesota winter 2014-15 was both cold and unusually snowless and those conditions lead to deep freezing. But I think most codes in this area specify eight or ten feet for buried pipes and there haven't been problems other years including cold ones in the 20'th century. No answers, just curious.

These are my stations Tuscola's Monthly averages since November.

NOVEMBER (highs + 5.5 F) (lows + 8.7 F)

56.6 F average high 2016
51.1 F normal average high
40.9 F average low 2016
32.2 F normal average low

DECEMBER (highs + 0.6 F) (lows + 4.0 F)

37.1 F average high 2016
36.5 F normal average high
25.5 F average low 2016
21.5 F normal average low

JANUARY (high + 7.8 F) (lows + 11.1 F)

41.1 F average high 2017
33.3 F normal average high
28.2 F average low 2017
17.1 F normal average low

FEBRUARY 1-16 (highs + 9.8 F) (lows + 8.0 F)

46.0 F average high 2017 (FEB 1-16)
36.2 F normal average high (FEB 1-16)
27.4 F average low 2017 (FEB 1-16)
19.4 F normal average low (FEB 1-16)

My forecast for Tuscola, IL over the next two week calls for highs to above 60 each and every day with multiple chances for record highs. Lows near or above 40 F. Anomalies forecasted to be 10-12 C (18-22 F) above normal.
It's not a Chinese hoax. It's not a political conspiracy. It's not even alternative facts. It is reality. A very warm one...

34. vis0
Quoting 7. LargoFl:


way back in time when I was researching Earth's weather history,the
Earth goes thru these harsh periods...a Blasting heated warm Earth is
almost always followed by an Ice Age..it seems Mankind is really in for
it, thru the next several hundred or thousands of years or more then the
Earth freezes up again..and then possibly a new Life form emerges and
mankind per se will be just a memoryoooooooooooooooooooooooo
Quoting 8. Patrap:



way back in time....?

After that, u lost me.



u think yer lost, ya know how lost vis0's thoughts are that for me to "read" Q7 and go huh, where am i?

LargoFl with due respect Try the compass of truth and knowledge to help find your way.

Those past "harsh periods" took thousands of years to start and end with hundreds of thousandths of years in between and finally thousands of years to settle into a "normal period" aka stable eras.

If i may use Carl Sagan's Gregorian Calendar analogy method if the past warming "periods" took a year (365 days)  to reach max the warmth,  aGW is taking...

(at the current rate which has a decade or more of delay so its going to get worse even if one includes a few cooler, cooler AS WHEN compared to THE RECORD BREAKING warmest year years)

...3 weeks at present rate to reach its max.

on the slower side, if it took most plumbers 1 hour to fix a leak caused by a broken joint and you hired a plumber to fix the exact problem and  that plumber was already in his/her 3rd day at 8 hrs a day would LargoFl say that's okeedokee.

on the faster side, if LargoFl placed a pizza pie in oven expecting it take 30 minutes to fully cook and in 3 minutes you smell it burning does LargoFl consider that okey-dokey, normal"?

i use the slower side as not we forget if tommorrow all that causes aGW were replaced with healthy energy creating devices we still have to wait for Earth to clean up the mess already out there.
January 2017 was the planet's third warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. NASA also rated January 2017 as the third warmest January on record. The only warmer Januarys were 2016 (highest) and 2007 (second highest)

I guess, Drs.
Quoting 31. weathermanwannabe:

What many of us are saying is that back to back years, or very strong El Ninos' in one particular year, in this current AGW regime can be devastating in terms of delivering additional heat into the oceans and mid and upper latitudes..................Could make the difference in any given year at many different levels including in terms of ice recovery (or greater loss) in the Arctic due to warm bursts.

And one very good example of this is coral bleaching around the world (in the tropics) when you combine warming SST's with a strong El Nino period.
Wouldn't that be "additional heat from the oceans"?
Quoting 12. SuperYooper:



When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work. Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what happened.




The Great Lakes region froze. It was a terrible, no good, very bad thing. Up here in the UP, frost levels went to 12 feet in 13/14, freezing many pipes and making the entire region frozen for the next year because the ground took so long for the thaw and Superior water temps were suppressed. Marquette NWS had a record streak of below freezing temps (if I remember correctly, it was above 90 days) and the snowpiles in my yard were so high that I couldn't throw the snow over them anymore.

So, just 2-3 winters ago, Superior completely froze over and most of the Great Lakes were ice covered as well. Go ahead and blame GW for this year but frankly I won't listen. For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.
There's certainly variability in Great Lakes ice coverage, and--as you've pointed out--2014 was a particular harsh one. But despite that peak, the long-term trend is clearly downward, and the only way to explain that is climate change:



That + 7.8 & + 11.1 for Jan. makes more sense to me ILwthr, was kind of surprised Jan. '17 was only 14th warmest at +5 for whole state. I couldn't remember a Jan. that warm, so was expecting top 3 at least. Have you seen any more regional #s? I think I heard StL was in top 5 warmest. (Also, their total snowfall is currently lowest ever, below '53-'54, which if memory serves, '54 was one of the hottest/driest summers in my neck of the woods.)
Thanks to the Cat 6 Duo for the heartening news and outlook for Lake Oroville. Here's hoping the repairs and precipitation forecast hold.
Quoting 12. SuperYooper:



When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work. Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what happened.




The Great Lakes region froze. It was a terrible, no good, very bad thing. Up here in the UP, frost levels went to 12 feet in 13/14, freezing many pipes and making the entire region frozen for the next year because the ground took so long for the thaw and Superior water temps were suppressed. Marquette NWS had a record streak of below freezing temps (if I remember correctly, it was above 90 days) and the snowpiles in my yard were so high that I couldn't throw the snow over them anymore.

So, just 2-3 winters ago, Superior completely froze over and most of the Great Lakes were ice covered as well. Go ahead and blame GW for this year but frankly I won't listen. For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.


Perhaps 'Global Warming' may contribute to more winters like this for us in the Great Lakes.

Dr. Jennifer Francis, Top Climatologists Explain How Global Warming Wrecks the Jet Stream and Amps Up Hydrological Cycle To Cause Dangerous Weather

According to NASA GISS, January 2017 was 0.92 degrees Celsius warmer than the mean January temperature from 1951-1980.


A map of the January 2017 LOTI (land-ocean temperature index) anomaly shows that most of North America and Siberia were much warmer than the 1951-1980 base period. Much of the rest of Asia was also relatively warm. Parts of Antarctica are gray because data from stations there had not yet been received. — View larger image
Quoting 32. georgevandenberghe:



I ask the related question, why did the ground freeze to 12 feet when in other winters comparably cold it had never frozen to this depth. In Minnesota winter 2014-15 was both cold and unusually snowless and those conditions lead to deep freezing. But I think most codes in this area specify eight or ten feet for buried pipes and there haven't been problems other years including cold ones in the 20'th century. No answers, just curious.




Having lived in Northern Minnesota for nearly 50 years I can offer this. The frost depth is not all about how cold it gets but about how it gets cold and then how long it stays very cold along with snow depth as it acts as an insulator.

It seems when it gets cold in the fall then thaws and freezes it drives the frost deep. Frozen sewer lines are very common all winter long and newer wells as it code now are not located in the house and freeze on the worst years.

You know it is cold outside when the propane tank freezes. To solve problem you put fire to the propane tank, I know it sounds crazy but true
43. vis0

Quoting 12. SuperYooper:



When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work. Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what happened.




The Great Lakes region froze. It was a terrible, no good, very bad thing. Up here in the UP, frost levels went to 12 feet in 13/14, freezing many pipes and making the entire region frozen for the next year because the ground took so long for the thaw and Superior water temps were suppressed. Marquette NWS had a record streak of below freezing temps (if I remember correctly, it was above 90 days) and the snowpiles in my yard were so high that I couldn't throw the snow over them anymore.

So, just 2-3 winters ago, Superior completely froze over and most of the Great Lakes were ice covered as well. Go ahead and blame GW for this year but frankly I won't listen. For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.
First quote of SuperYooper:: When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work.
Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what
happened.

vis0 inserts:: The other side of where you live Earth was warming up so much that cold was forced towards your are of the same home.


Second quote of SuperYooper:: For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.

vis0 inserts::  which is why for you to remain sane and not be affected by tropical bugs that soon enough will being entering your area you might need to take the needed precautions

PS
i hope your work does not involve the fishing industry (not just catching but delivering) nor any industry dependent on a healthy ocean cause as it warms acid levels and depleting oxygen levels will destroy much of what is taken for granted today as to the ocean(s)
And careful;l with more lightning or faster changing weather up on top...the highest i climbed were piles of burned ruble in Da South BronX NY..so i admire your accomplishments, yet for one to have a better flow of weather (live in an area that is more predictable be it a dull weather area to constantly exciting ) one needs a healthier planet so that the topography is the main reason weather changes not that the atmosphere is constantly changing faster due to chemical reactions begun by man's actions...ya now action = reaction like too cold too upset or in my case too nutty = too nutty.
'H.J.Res.38 - Disapproving the rule submitted by the Department of the Interior known as the Stream Protection Rule.'

president hates the environment just signed this. anyone who questions why people talk about politics when it's not related to weather/climate/NATURE, please sit down and shut up. he is literally threatening not just our own lives, but the millions of species that share this planet... and with this 'de-regulation', the thousands and thousands of organisms that live in streams..and rivers? i'm assuming? there's probably a measurement for what constitutes a stream vs. river..anyway i digress..

seriously anyone of you folks on here who keep supporting trump, please defend this. with facts, and backed up opinions. i'll listen. but only if you provide information to back up what you're saying, and why it's a good thing to NOT protect water sources from pollutants.

Link

From the tweet at the bottom of todays Cat6 post.

The 25 & 50 year event colors are right over my house(insert curse word here).
The JAX NWS forecast for me today was 67F and it's currently 71F, I wonder what summer will bring ?

Forecast is 2.28" here now for Friday. Yikes, This is a DoomCon-1 level event.... Send Sandbags pls.....
Here is the breakdown as to the stream rule issue from Science Mag:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/demise-str eam-rule-won-t-revitalize-coal-industry


Environmentalists were outraged earlier this month after the Republican-led Congress used an obscure law to erase a new regulation aimed at reducing the environmental damage caused by coal mining. The votes to undo the so-called stream protection rule, released last month on President Barack Obama’s last day in office, were “a disgraceful opening salvo from this Congress, as they begin to try and do the bidding of big polluters,” Michael Brune, executive director of the San Francisco, California–based Sierra Club, said in a statement.
Quoting 42. nymore:



Having lived in Northern Minnesota for nearly 50 years I can offer this. The frost depth is not all about how cold it gets but about how it gets cold and then how long it stays very cold along with snow depth as it acts as an insulator.

It seems when it gets cold in the fall then thaws and freezes it drives the frost deep. Frozen sewer lines are very common all winter long and newer wells as it code now are not located in the house and freeze on the worst years.

You know it is cold outside when the propane tank freezes. To solve problem you put fire to the propane tank, I know it sounds crazy but true


I hope that the tank is on the far side of the back 40 acres. Have you ever seen a propane tank undergo a BLEVE before?
BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) Demonstration - How it Happens Training Video
Possible severe weather outbreak across portions of Florida for this next Wednesday in Thursday.
Stream Protection Rule.

This was a rule passed by the Obama administration designed to impinge on private property rights, for our good of course. Some people didn't like the FEDERAL government telling what they could do with tiny streams or literally wet spots on private property. Unlike some places there are a few people in the US that actually don't like to bend over and grab their ankles when Big Brother speaks.
Quoting 49. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I hope that the tank is on the far side of the back 40 acres. Have you ever seen a propane tank undergo a BLEVE before?
BLEVE (Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion) Demonstration - How it Happens Training Video


Cool video

No worries, all you do is bring a 500,000 btu weed burner out and heat the tank up a little to help the gas vaporize. When you put the heat to it you can easily see the liquid line on the tank.

If you want to see something similar take a weed burner hook it up to a 20lb cylinder and crank the torch on high you will see a frost line develop on the tank and sooner or later the gas flow will decrease all you do is put the torch on the tank and the gas flow will return to normal.

As an aside if you go ice fishing in a remote area on very cold nights it is a good idea to keep a 20lb cylinder in the fish house just in case your 100lb tank freezes, it has saved my behind a few times.

Well it is 40 degrees outside and not much wind so I better get ready to go fishing for walleye as these perfect days are few and far between. Have a good day
Quoting 51. indycarman:

Stream Protection Rule.

This was a rule passed by the Obama administration designed to impinge on private property rights, for our good of course. Some people didn't like the FEDERAL government telling what they could do with tiny streams or literally wet spots on private property. Unlike some places there are a few people in the US that actually don't like to bend over and grab their ankles when Big Brother speaks.


why would someone design a rule to impinge on property rights? what purpose would that serve? every 'tiny wet spot' or 'little stream' is a part of the environment and the hydrosphere. nature doesn't care about land ownership, either. what would the federal government get out of this? (besides having clean water, which need I remind you, YOU need to live) seriously, google : the hydrologic cycle, and you'll better understand how much water moves around in the air, and on land. the notion that private property covers a stream with MOVING water, is ridiculous (i dont care if its the law, water is for the benefit of all, and shouldnt be left to the people who happen to have land near water)
hey admin....really miss having the little envelope that states that there is mail.
Quoting 46. MahFL:

The JAX NWS forecast for me today was 67F and it's currently 71F, I wonder what summer will bring ?
stay a lil more alert next wens/thurs still a lot of uncertainty but NWS is mentioning this particular storm system Could..be stronger than whats been hitting us so far.
In terms of the EPA, if a large commercial polluter sets up shop in your neck of the woods, and some environmental damage is caused, common folks in these positions in the past have often looked for the government to do something and if the damage is large enough, then the EPA has stepped in (think about EPA Superfund issues with toxic waste clean-up in so many places adjacent to family housing) to help try to right the wrong.

Polluted water can travel a long way downstream or seep down into fresh water aquafers..............................

https://www.epa.gov/greatlakes/lakewide-action-an d-management-plans


Lakewide Action and Management Plan (LAMP)s are plans of action to assess, restore, protect and monitor the ecosystem health of each Great Lake and its connecting river system. It coordinates the work of all the government and non-government partners working to improve the lake's ecosystem. A public consultation process ensures that the LAMP is addressing the public's concerns.
Quoting 56. LargoFl:
stay a lil more alert next wens/thurs still a lot of uncertainty but NWS is mentioning this particular storm system Could..be stronger than whats been hitting us so far.
I've been fussing about this since Tuesday...
DoomCon-1
Quoting 55. 3SeaHorses:

hey admin....really miss having the little envelope that states that there is mail.

You have to peek behind the My Profile tab, but it is there if you have some.
Wasn't Festivus and the Airing of Grievances in December ?

I may google it,....

: )

Quoting 28. dabirds:

Wow, jumped from 47 before lunch to 57 around 1:20CST in S C IL. Started this a.m. at 27, last freezing temp in the 10 day, w/ a few 40s then 5 days of 50s for lows (In mid late FEB?!) before dropping back to 30s at end of 10 day. Pressure has dropped from a couple ticks below 30" this a.m. to 29.93" when 47 to 20.83" now. S winds have picked up a little more as well, around 10 w/ 20 gusts.



Now 60, so well above forecast. Press has now dropped to 29.76", S wind avg above 11 & peak gust just under 25. Going to be a wild, warm week. Excursions into 70s definitely not out of the ordinary in Feb., but 5 days w/ lows above 50 is not!
Quoting 60. PedleyCA:


You have to peek behind the My Profile tab, but it is there if you have some.


I jus keep a permanent tab open to it on the MacbookPro jus to keep from giving up dat click,

I'm not gonna due it. No siree'.



Quoting 57. weathermanwannabe:

In terms of the EPA, if a large commercial polluter sets up shop in your neck of the woods, and some environmental damage is caused, common folks in these positions in the past have often looked for the government to do something and if the damage is large enough, then the EPA has stepped in (think about EPA Superfund issues with toxic waste clean-up in so many places adjacent to family housing) to help try to right the wrong.

Polluted water can travel a long way downstream or seep down into fresh water aquafers..............................


I've seen what Vinyl Chloride, Chlorine, and anhydrous Ammonia can do when released into the atmosphere from a refinery accident,tanker Railcar, release, or other. It don't stay in the fence at all.

I've run out a Air Products and a Shell facility more than once. One always knows where a wind sock is located in a refinery.

Always.

Your life may depend on it.




From Roll Call:

Senate Democrats Plan All-Nighter Over EPA Nominee

But Scott Pruitt is likely to be confirmed despite objections

Senate Democrats are planning to once again stage a series of overnight speeches on the Senate floor, this time in opposition to Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt’s nomination to head the EPA.

“We intend to stand our ground,” said Delaware Sen. Thomas R. Carper, the ranking Democrat on the Environment and Public Works Committee. While Pruitt appears poised for confirmation, Carper said Democrats were not going quietly into the night.

“[If] we go home, we go to bed, say, ‘That’s it, we fought the good fight, it’s 10 o’clock, we’re going to call it a day,’ there’s zero chance we prevail,” Carper said.

Carper was joined by fellow Democrats Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois at a Thursday press conference to criticize Republican leadership for not delaying Pruitt’s confirmation.

Click here to read more.

----------

Senator Brian Schatz:
‏@SenBrianSchatz

To my Republican colleagues: If you are not a climate denier, don't put one in charge of the @EPA. #RejectPruitt

You can't sit on the fence in the current climate (literally).........On that note, Yall have a safe weather evening and see you folks tomorrow.
Quoting 65. Xandra:

From Roll Call:

Senate Democrats Plan All-Nighter Over EPA Nominee

But Scott Pruitt is likely to be confirmed despite objections

Senate Democrats are planning to once again stage a series of overnight speeches on the Senate floor, this time in opposition to Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt’s nomination to head the EPA.

“We intend to stand our ground,” said Delaware Sen. Thomas R. Carper, the ranking Democrat on the Environment and Public Works Committee. While Pruitt appears poised for confirmation, Carper said Democrats were not going quietly into the night.

“[If] we go home, we go to bed, say, ‘That’s it, we fought the good fight, it’s 10 o’clock, we’re going to call it a day,’ there’s zero chance we prevail,” Carper said.

Carper was joined by fellow Democrats Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Edward J. Markey of Massachusetts, Jeff Merkley of Oregon and Tammy Duckworth of Illinois at a Thursday press conference to criticize Republican leadership for not delaying Pruitt’s confirmation.

Click here to read more.

----------

Senator Brian Schatz:
‏@SenBrianSchatz

To my Republican colleagues: If you are not a climate denier, don't put one in charge of the @EPA. #RejectPruitt





His nomination and confirmation is most..illogical.

I shall Protest.



President Trump has yet to sign the request for Federal Assistance by Gov. Brown of California from the recent Storms.

#sad
From InsideClimate News:

EPA Official, After Years of Work to Thwart the Agency's Mission, Returns to Carry Out Trump Agenda

A key member of Donald Trump's transition team, David Schnare returns to the agency where he worked for 33 years, while also striving to hamstring some of its work.


David Schnare in a Fox News appearance about the EPA

David Schnare's career with the Environmental Protection Agency began in the agency's infancy in 1978 with the critical mission of implementing the new Safe Drinking Water Act. Over the next 33 years, he would call the EPA home as an enforcement lawyer and policy analyst, while also working in his outside time to try to undermine some of the agency's pressing priorities.

During his tenure at the EPA, Schnare simultaneously directed a conservative think tank's environmental program that opposed regulation as a pollution remedy. He testified to Congress that carbon regulations do greater harm to the environment than carbon dioxide. He also co-founded a legal organization funded partly by fossil fuel interests, and through that group launched an effort to make public climate scientists' private emails to call their work into question.

Now in his late 60s, Schnare returns to the EPA in a far more powerful role: reshaping it under another foe of regulation, President Donald Trump. He is one of 11 appointees to the agency's beachhead team that is beginning to implement the administration's agenda, which Trump has promised will include a rollback of environmental regulations. Schnare said he's been asked to stay on full-time beyond the transition. That's a chilling prospect for environmental and climate activists, who worry his history of aggressive campaigns against scientists and fossil fuel regulation mean he will work against the agency's mission.

"The bottom line is he has been a virulent EPA critic who has worked to block health protections saving many tens of thousands of lives a year," said John Walke, director of the clean air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Click here to read more.
Quoting 69. Xandra:

From InsideClimate News:

EPA Official, After Years of Work to Thwart the Agency's Mission, Returns to Carry Out Trump Agenda

A key member of Donald Trump's transition team, David Schnare returns to the agency where he worked for 33 years, while also striving to hamstring some of its work.


David Schnare in a Fox News appearance about the EPA

David Schnare's career with the Environmental Protection Agency began in the agency's infancy in 1978 with the critical mission of implementing the new Safe Drinking Water Act. Over the next 33 years, he would call the EPA home as an enforcement lawyer and policy analyst, while also working in his outside time to try to undermine some of the agency's pressing priorities.

During his tenure at the EPA, Schnare simultaneously directed a conservative think tank's environmental program that opposed regulation as a pollution remedy. He testified to Congress that carbon regulations do greater harm to the environment than carbon dioxide. He also co-founded a legal organization funded partly by fossil fuel interests, and through that group launched an effort to make public climate scientists' private emails to call their work into question.

Now in his late 60s, Schnare returns to the EPA in a far more powerful role: reshaping it under another foe of regulation, President Donald Trump. He is one of 11 appointees to the agency's beachhead team that is beginning to implement the administration's agenda, which Trump has promised will include a rollback of environmental regulations. Schnare said he's been asked to stay on full-time beyond the transition. That's a chilling prospect for environmental and climate activists, who worry his history of aggressive campaigns against scientists and fossil fuel regulation mean he will work against the agency's mission.

"The bottom line is he has been a virulent EPA critic who has worked to block health protections saving many tens of thousands of lives a year," said John Walke, director of the clean air program at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Click here to read more.


Quoting 51. indycarman:

Stream Protection Rule.

This was a rule passed by the Obama administration designed to impinge on private property rights, for our good of course. Some people didn't like the FEDERAL government telling what they could do with tiny streams or literally wet spots on private property. Unlike some places there are a few people in the US that actually don't like to bend over and grab their ankles when Big Brother speaks.


Let us say that the stream traverses across your property. You use this stream for recreational purposes and for fishing. Now let us say that the people that lived upstream from you, on their own private property, decide to start dumping their used oil and batteries into the stream. What are you going to do? Now put this on an industrial scale. What are you and your neighbors going to do? Being obtuse is not a virtue.
72. vis0

#71:
'Smatter of fact I saw that happen:
"Let us say that the stream traverses across your property. You use this stream for recreational purposes and for fishing. Now let us say that the people that lived upstream from you, on their own private property, decide to start dumping their used oil and batteries into the stream. What are you going to do? Now put this on an industrial scale. What are you are your neighbors going to do? Being obtuse is not a virtue."

Not on an industrial scale - just a new owner who dumped waste into the creek above my place. The transition from fairly pristine to ugly took less than a year.
patrap...did u see my email?
Powerful Friday storm in Southern California; Warm & wet atmospheric river to affect Oroville Dam watershed Monday : California Weather Blog
(Below is an excerpt. Click the above link for the full article with graphics.)
....

Potentially strong, warm & wet atmospheric river headed for Oroville Dam watershed

A warm, wet atmospheric rivers with subtropical origins will approach Northern California on Monday. (NCEP via UCSD)

Unfortunately, the forecast for the Feather River watershed upstream of the Oroville Dam has become somewhat more ominous over the past 24 hours. Instead of a series of moderate, cold, and relatively manageable storms as had originally been depicted by the models, a rather strong atmospheric river is now expected to develop and slowly move across Northern California on Monday. The GFS and ECMWF agree that this storm will tap into subtropical moisture, bringing a warm and moist airmass into the region. Mountain peaks in the vicinity of Oroville Dam are not as tall as those further south along the Sierra Nevada mountain chain, so it’s easier for warm storms to produce exclusively rain (as opposed to snow) in that part of the state. The Monday storm may indeed be warm enough for most/all of the precipitation in that watershed to fall as heavy rain, which is not good news for current mitigation operations at Oroville Dam. Recent forecasts show a high likelihood of greater than 10 inches of precipitation over the next 5 days, with parts of the basin expected to approach 15 inches over the next 7 days. It is unclear at this point exactly what impacts this expected heavy rainfall will have on dam operations, but it’s clear this is not the forecast that DWR officials and emergency managers were hoping for.

....
91P (NE Australia, Gulf of Carpentaria):

2017-02-16 2250z.
Click to enlarge. Source: RAMMB-CIRA/Hi.8 (10-min floater available there).

NOAA tropical floater (91P): Link
Quoting 66. weathermanwannabe:

You can't sit on the fence in the current climate (literally).........On that note, Yall have a safe weather evening and see you folks tomorrow.

The climate isn't important. Neither are clean water and clean air. Stigginit to the warmunists and libby-libs is what's really important. That has become increasingly apparent.
Love reading about the weather. Hate reading the politics here. Tiresome. The weather is exciting enough.
Quoting 78. Misanthroptimist:


The climate isn't important. Neither are clean water and clean air. Stigginit to the warmunists and libby-libs is what's really important. That has become increasingly apparent.


The climate is important. Clean air and water is also important. Stigginit to you guys is priceless.
Quoting 68. Patrap:

President Trump has yet to sign the request for Federal Assistance by Gov. Brown of California from the recent Storms.

#sad
In these interesting times some seek profit in increasing the polarization of voters even further (in either direction). Know your sources and corroborate.

Here are two sources I've been familiar with for years reporting on the subject.
1) Trump Administration Approves Federal Aid For Storm, Oroville Dam Relief - capradio.org
2) Trump approves FEMA disaster declaration for 34 California counties hit by storms - LA Times
They report without editorializing or seeking to inflame.

I suspect that some of the newer "fake news" outlets may intentionally inflame opposition for the purpose of then embarrassing that opposition.
Quoting 53. nymore:



Cool video

No worries, all you do is bring a 500,000 btu weed burner out and heat the tank up a little to help the gas vaporize. When you put the heat to it you can easily see the liquid line on the tank.

If you want to see something similar take a weed burner hook it up to a 20lb cylinder and crank the torch on high you will see a frost line develop on the tank and sooner or later the gas flow will decrease all you do is put the torch on the tank and the gas flow will return to normal.

As an aside if you go ice fishing in a remote area on very cold nights it is a good idea to keep a 20lb cylinder in the fish house just in case your 100lb tank freezes, it has saved my behind a few times.

Well it is 40 degrees outside and not much wind so I better get ready to go fishing for walleye as these perfect days are few and far between. Have a good day
Good luck on fish. Post some pics.
Quoting 80. PensacolaDoug:



The climate is important. Clean air and water is also important. Stigginit to you guys is priceless.
then something should be done about it
NASA-GISS global temperature now updated through Jan 2017 (3rd warmest in time series, base '51-80):

(Via @ZLabe)
A nice explainer from NASA Earth Observatory on El Nino:
El Nino - Pacific Wind and Current Changes Bring Warm, Wild Weather
Feb. 14.
Quoting 58. aquak9:

I've been fussing about this since Tuesday...


Not looking like much at this point, doggie. Saturated column. Rain. Low instability in the wake of the late weekend system-most of it offshore. A tendency for the mid and upper level winds to back with height (instead of veering w/height) as the mid-level system approaches. But it is eye-catching in the mid-level model depiction.

Butt who nose? The GFS may be underdone.
Mozambique - Tropical Cyclone Dineo Leaves 4 Dead
FloodList - Feb. 16.
(...) The equivalent of a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale, Dineo is the first tropical cyclone to hit the province of Inhambane since Favio in February 2007, according to WMO. Its landfall was accompanied by winds of approximately 130km/h (70 knots), breaking and uprooting trees and ripping roofs off a number of buildings, as well as disrupting power supplies. (...)
Quoting 73. ycd0108:

#71:
'Smatter of fact I saw that happen:
"Let us say that the stream traverses across your property. You use this stream for recreational purposes and for fishing. Now let us say that the people that lived upstream from you, on their own private property, decide to start dumping their used oil and batteries into the stream. What are you going to do? Now put this on an industrial scale. What are you are your neighbors going to do? Being obtuse is not a virtue."

Not on an industrial scale - just a new owner who dumped waste into the creek above my place. The transition from fairly pristine to ugly took less than a year.



I am truly sorry to hear about that. One person can ruin it for everyone else. I wish that it was not this way.
Beell- if you're still here- can you PLEASE look over a low in the GOM, possibly affecting ya'll then northern coastal GOM then me then carolinas next week?
Like, Tues-Thurs timeframe,

okthxbai
Quoting 92. aquak9:

Beell- if you're still here- can you PLEASE look over a low in the GOM, possibly affecting ya'll then northern coastal GOM then me then carolinas next week?
Like, Tues-Thurs timeframe,

okthxbai


That's what I posted, doggie. An opinion-1 week out. Possibly the Carolina would have more of a chance to develop some instability. Worth a bear watch, at least. Two shortwaves. One this weekend-not too worrisome. One mid-week for the central gulf coast and points east.

Neither one impressive at this time-and a week out...this opinion should not be too impressive either!
:)
Quoting 80. PensacolaDoug:



The climate is important. Clean air and water is also important. Stigginit to you guys is priceless.


The airing of grievances was earlier today, for like 77 minutes.

Festivus came early for one seems.





ok thanks beell... we were posting at the same time, you had answered my question as I was typing it.

great minds, etc...
The local forecast here is now up to 2.5" of rain for Friday.
I'm not sure if this had already been posted, but the Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Nicole has recently been issued. There is a thorough explanation for the peculiar structural evolution of the cyclone.
Quoting 93. beell:




you're good
There is still the "tweets of strength" to look forward to.


Quoting 94. Patrap:



The airing of grievances was earlier today, for like 77 minutes.

Festivus came early for one seems.






warming trend

Time wounds all heels.
end of February march roars in like a lion maybe a savage
Rain just started here in SFV (Northridge). WU Best Forecast is for about 5 inches total in next 36 hours.
Quoting 104. TimSoCal:

Rain just started here in SFV (Northridge). WU Best Forecast is for about 5 inches total in next 36 hours.


I see you got off of that 6.16" you had yesterday. 4.7" is still a wicked amount....
Quoting 106. PedleyCA:



I see you got off of that 6.16" you had yesterday. 4.7" is still a wicked amount....


I think WU Best Forecast gets the amounts from the GFS operational runs. They're not high enough resolution to really get the differences between, say, topographic forcings in the Santa Monica/Santa Susana Mountains and the valley itself, so I doubt we actually get as much as it says. Still quite alarming though.
Quoting 80. PensacolaDoug:



The climate is important. Clean air and water is also important. Stigginit to you guys is priceless.


Trump, Republicans in Congress, and his billionaire class appointments are sticking it to the average American, the environment, and the world; this is atrociously shameful and anyone supporting what the Right and President are doing love a great lie that defies all logic and good.
Quoting 79. FloodProne:

Love reading about the weather. Hate reading the politics here. Tiresome. The weather is exciting enough.

I agree with you. Too much political bickering here on both sides lately. Can't wait for hurricane season to see this blog back to normal.
Trump overturns regulation on coal mining debris

Bad politics matters. Dumping coal waste into our rivers and streams is not just bad policy, it's stupid!
I believe in climate change......Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter and this happens each year. Go figure!
NASA Satellite Spots Mile-Long Iceberg Breaking Off of Antarctic Glacier

Kacey Deamer | LiveScience | February 16, 2017



A massive, 1-mile-long (1.6 kilometers) chunk of ice has broken off Antarctica's fast-changing Pine Island Glacier, and NASA satellites captured the dramatic event as the icy surface cracked and ripped apart.

The Pine Island Glacier is one of the largest glaciers within the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, accounting for about 20 percent of the ice sheet's total ice flow to the ocean, according to NASA scientists. The immense glacier is also one of the least stable, and in recent years, the ice sheet has been quickly retreating and losing massive amounts of ice. Previously, icebergs the size of cities have broken off of the Pine Island Glacier.

The glacier's last major iceberg break — an event known as calving — was in July 2015, when an iceberg measuring almost 225 square miles (580 square kilometers) separated from Pine Island Glacier.

The Earth-watching Landsat 8 satellite captured images of the latest iceberg event between Jan. 25 and 29, seeing the progression from the initial crack to the iceberg floating into the bay. Though this latest iceberg is about 10 times smaller than the 2015 event, measuring between 0.6 and 1.2 miles (1 to 2 km), NASA scientists said the recent break shows how fragile the ice shelf is.

"I think this event is the calving equivalent of an 'aftershock' following the much bigger event," Ian Howat, a glaciologist at The Ohio State University, said in a statement. "Apparently, there are weaknesses in the ice shelf — just inland of the rift that caused the 2015 calving — that are resulting in these smaller breaks."

More icebergs may break off of the Pine Island Glacier in the near future. NASA has previously photographed small rifts developing about 6 miles (10 km) from the ice front, and one such rift was observed on Nov. 4, 2016, during one of the agency's Operation IceBridge flights to monitor the region.

Climate change and the warming ocean have been linked to the the retreat and melt of the world's ice. According to Howat, such "rapid fire" calving is generally unusual for the glacier, but West Antarctic glaciers are eroding due to the flow of warm ocean water beneath them. A recent study found that the warming ocean was melting an ice crevasse of the Pine Island Glacier at the bedrock level, melting the glacier from its center.

These warmer ocean waters are causing the Antarctic ice shelf to break from the inside out. As such, scientists expect further calving along the glacier and have warned that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could collapse within the next 100 years.

Original article on Live Science. Copyright © 2017 All Rights Reserved.
Quoting 112. MartyTheWeatherGuy:

I believe in climate change......Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter and this happens each year. Go figure!


There is a difference between seasonal changes in local climate and changes in the global climate. Global scale climate change will create greater changes in the seasonal changes of the local climate. Perhaps this is a viewpoint that you have never considered before?

Quoting 102. Grothar:

Time wounds all heels.
Time flies like an arrow and fruit flies like bananas.
Quoting 74. MrTornadochase:


SACRAMENTO (CN) — President Donald Trump on Tuesday approved federal disaster aid for California due to statewide flooding and a mass evacuation caused by damage to the nation’s tallest dam, at Oroville.


It is sad when the Governor of California Jerry Brown has spent 25 billion dollars on sanctuary cities and not cared about the residents of his state to make repairs on the infrastructure.
The current warming in the ENSO region is likely the result of the MJO pulse Doctor Henson alluded to a couple of days ago. The warmth in the Nino 1.2 region has shrunk and moved westward, which is what I predicted would happen anyways. Climatology doesn't make it likely that we'll see another short-fuse El Nino, so until we escape the spring predictability barrier, I think it's safe to assume that the models that are showing an El Nino are exhibiting a warm bias.
Good morning and good luck to SoCal!
Fresh article with maps and loops:
Southern California bracing for an 'off the charts' storm
Mashable, by Andrew Freedman, 4 hours ago



By Angela Fritz February 16 at 1:01 PM

Over the course of an afternoon, Southwest California will transition from “mostly sunny” to “under siege” from the strongest storms in years. Torrential rain and potential flash flooding is in the forecast, and it’s all expected to happen in less than 48 hours.

“The storm looks to be the strongest storm to hit Southwest California this season,” the National Weather Service in Los Angeles noted Thursday. “It is likely the strongest within the last six years, and possibly even as far back as December 2004 or January 1995.”
Climate change could threaten entire financial system, APRA warns
By Stephen Long, Updated 7 minutes ago
Climate change could threaten the stability of the entire financial system, the prudential regulator has warned, as it prepares to apply climate change "stress tests" to the nation's financial institutions.
In its first major speech on climate change, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chastised companies for a lack of action on the risks it poses. ...


Scientists highlight deadly health risks of climate change
By Jacqueline Howard, CNN, Updated 0011 GMT (0811 HKT) February 17, 2017
The future is expected to hold more deadly heat waves, the fast spread of certain infectious diseases and catastrophic food shortages.
These events could cause premature deaths -- and they're all related to climate change, according to a panel of experts who gathered at the Carter Center in Atlanta on Thursday for the Climate & Health Meeting. ...


E.P.A. Workers Try to Block Pruitt in Show of Defiance
NYT, By CORAL DAVENPORT, FEB. 16, 2017
WASHINGTON - Employees of the Environmental Protection Agency have been calling their senators to urge them to vote on Friday against the confirmation of Scott Pruitt, President Trump's contentious nominee to run the agency, a remarkable display of activism and defiance that presages turbulent times ahead for the E.P.A.
Many of the scientists, environmental lawyers and policy experts who work in E.P.A. offices around the country say the calls are a last resort for workers who fear a nominee selected to run an agency he has made a career out of fighting - by a president who has vowed to "get rid off" it.
...
Quoting 120. Grothar:

Hey Grothar, still/already up? Greetings to you! Maybe a bunch of rain for southern Florida in sight in a week ...

UPDATE: Dineo destroys Mozambique leaving 7 dead but KZN escapes unscathed
An estimated 20, 000 homes have also been destroyed as a result of severe winds and heavy rain.
34 mins ago
TROPICAL storm Dineo left a path of destruction after her landfall in Mozambique yesterday.
Dineo has killed seven people in Mozambique since her arrival on the eastern coast earlier this week, confirmed the government’s disaster centre.
An estimated 20, 000 homes have also been destroyed as a result of severe winds and heavy rain.
It has been estimated by the government that more than 130, 000 people have been affected by the storm.
On the local front, the South African Weather Service has confirmed that KZN is no longer at risk of being affected by the tropical storm which has weakened and moved into Zimbabwe. ...


Mozambique: 750,000 hurt by Cyclone Dineo, World Vision warns
Fri 17 Feb 2017, by Alex Williams
A Christian charity's warning 750,000 people in Mozambique will be directly affected by a cyclone hitting the country.
Cyclone Dineo, which reached landfall late on Wednesday, is thought to be Mozambique's worst storm in ten years. It's destroyed homes, disrupted electricity supplies and caused flooding across southern areas of Mozambique.
The cyclone struck shortly before the maize harvest season, with Mozambique already struggling to recover from its worst drought in more than three decades.
Joseph Kamara, Humanitarian and Emergency Affairs Director for World Vision's Southern Africa Region, said: "This is going to be a major catastrophe in the area, so we're looking at 750,000 people being affected directly.
"This number could increase or reduce, depending on the assessments that... we're conducting." ...
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW 19U
4:42 PM EST February 17 2017
==================================

At 3:30 PM EST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 16.8S 138.1E or 115 km west of Mornington Island and 215 km east southeast of Borroloola has 10 minute sustained wind of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

The tropical low has moved west in the last few hours after crossing the coast. It is expected to curve towards the northwest tonight, remaining overland. The tropical low is expected to move back over water later on Saturday and may develop into a tropical cyclone Saturday night or early Sunday. It is possible that the system may reach category 2 intensity if it remains over water.

GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop about coastal and island communities between Burketown (Qld) and Port McArthur (NT), including Mornington Island on Sunday.

Severe Weather Warnings for heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts are current for the Gulf Country District, west of Karumba (Qld), and for the eastern Carpentaria and northeast Barkly Districts (NT).

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is possible in areas about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, islands and adjacent inland areas during today and over the weekend.

Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast today and over the weekend, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along low lying coastal areas.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 16.6S 137.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 16.0S 137.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 15.3S 138.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS 15.7S 140.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low has moved westwards after crossing the coast in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria, remaining overland. Scatterometer winds at 2350 UTC indicated winds up to 25 knots in the northern quadrant. Central convection persists with an active rain band to the east, although cloud top temperatures have warmed significantly in the last 24 hours.

Dvorak analysis is unavailable due to the system moving overland.

CIMSS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment favorable for development with low vertical wind shear and dual outflow channels evident. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30C around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters. As a result, it is anticipated that the system may form into a tropical cyclone if it moves back over water and that it could reach category 2 intensity on Sunday, but this will be highly dependent on the system taking a track over water during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The recent movement of the system has been westwards, due to a middle level ridge building to the south. As the mid level steering turns more southeasterly tonight the system is expect to turn towards the northwest before curving towards the northeast on Saturday when an amplifying upper trough from the southwest breaks down the steering influence, resulting in a recurving of the system towards the east later in the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Port McArthur to Burketown
Umm, lol, be careful with tweeting articles, DJT ;-)

Quoting 125. Zippit:

Jeff, maybe get out of the office more often? January temps in central MN....exactly CENTRAL Minnesota, St Cloud, MN, were not even in the top 20 warmest. The urban heat island explains most of the MILD warming.


He was talking about a global average. Temperatures being cooler in an extremely small part of the globe wouldn't even make a difference in that average.
128. vis0
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Quoting 82. LowerCal:

In these interesting times some seek profit in increasing the polarization of voters even further (in either direction). Know your sources and corroborate.

Here are two sources I've been familiar with for years reporting on the subject.
1) Trump Administration Approves Federal Aid For Storm, Oroville Dam Relief - capradio.org
2) Trump approves FEMA disaster declaration for 34 California counties hit by storms - LA Times
They report without editorializing or seeking to inflame.

I suspect that some of the newer "fake news" outlets may intentionally inflame opposition for the purpose of then embarrassing that opposition.



i did as you stated, i found/read 8 reports and found the following.

Agree yet if one reads the full play by play of Trump - Ca. February 2017 decision to send federal assistance funds it was not till republican senator sent A SECOND  letter.

(rumors has it that the 2nd letter had more explanation as to how Republicans in Ca. might look at Trump or Trump's appointees delaying the FEMA assistance) and magically after the 2nd letter Trump signed to have FEMA help at least 4 to 5 days after the Governor asked for help when its usually (recent ~30 yr history its 24-48 hrs /1-2 days...quicker due to satellite imagery showing damage i guess???) .

 

If you not going to write anything new why send a 2nd letter? Maybe JUST MY 22 cents 2nd letter reminded Trump if wall is built it has to go through Ca.?

 

At best Trump was so busy signing destructive Executive orders he didn't touch the constructive executive order requests.

 

 

At worst for Trump it might be that Trump was making sure the Ca. flooding or Dam problems where not created by the liberal press.  This reason might reads as zilly but Trump has stated such as to Terrorists attacks in saying the press be liberal does not report ha;lf of the terrorist attacks yet we see the 3 major networks  reporting LIVE from such attacked areas within 12 hours and his cabinet members,- constantly present made up terrorist attacks while not mentioning real attacks.  so maybe Trump needed a republican plus some of his own medicine as you don't send the needed FEMA money and you won';t get full support at representative levels?

 

Now the amount is to cover 65% to 70% of costs with up 75% with al the road assistance, debris removal and life-saving measures will be also covered in the Oroville Dam incident and others similar needs that are recent storm-related. Odds are all 75% will be used so reports state 75%

 

Is it normal to cap the assistance at 75%

 

i ask before this statement is removed from, their servers? (its been done on other government sites, again Obama did similar to assure accuracy Trump does it to remove information that might counter his position, both presidents acted with similar amount of Executive orders but one was constructive orders other is destructive orders

 

 
"How does FEMA get involved in a State disaster?
Once a disaster has occurred, and the State has declared a state of emergency, the State will evaluate the recovery capabilities of the State and local governments. If it is determined that the damage is beyond their recovery capability, the governor will normally send a request letter to the President, directed through the Regional Director of the appropriate FEMA region. The President then makes the decision whether or not to declare a major disaster or emergency.
After a presidential declaration has been made, FEMA will designate the area eligible for assistance and announce the types of assistance available. FEMA provides supplemental assistance for State and local government recovery expenses, and the Federal share will always be at least 75 percent of the eligible costs."




  Though not Patrap's lawyer nor representative and that Patrap might have missed the last 24 hr in updates still Patrap looking for the public protection,     i'd rather have a person as Patrap looking out for the public's needs than a person taking away laws/regulations that over last 40 to 50 years was created to protect the public and in the end also SAVEs money.
129. vis0
Quoting 112. MartyTheWeatherGuy:

I believe in climate change......Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter and this happens each year. Go figure!
soon its Spring, Summer, post-summer, pre-Spring and this happens as each year goes by. Go figure by learning the basics in science!

Science the same thing that gives you fast cars, pro sports fields, the ability to post comments on the webnet and store what is posted for future reference. !t (science) is neither good nor bad when correct its just unconditionally factual, humans hopefully learn its best when use for good.
130. vis0
Quoting 106. PedleyCA:



I see you got off of that 6.16" you had yesterday. 4.7" is still a wicked amount....
(breaking my promise as to not mentioning ml-d on Dr. Masters blog as 2
friends i know in Ca. wanted me to post this one more time as to a heads
up]

NOT trying to scare but remember my rule of nutty thumb due to a device in my imagination and aGW (italicized is an inside comment understood by long time WxU members).
When any weather event be it wind to precipitation or sudden change is to reach an extreme level and compu'r models/predictions lower those extremeness at 48 to 24 hrs look for areas under the covered prediction to received almost 2 times the lowered amount during half of the day (in this case / present settings hours out west that match with zip 10016 early afternoon* and late evening* in this case `~8 inches.



*(has to do with sunlight changing dimensions of the room that imagined device is in...i explained this much better  years ago, as sunlight expands floor/ceiling/cement and certain facing ml-d walls/pipes move toward ml-d an "air static reaction" changes/lowers influence.  the opposite when walls are expanded or contract away from ml-d,  its that sensitive)   Since at times i change ml-d position slightly or sun motion/angles and building shadows change so does the rooms influence on the ml-d...Science!
Quoting 125. Zippit:

Jeff, maybe get out of the office more often? January temps in central MN....exactly CENTRAL Minnesota, St Cloud, MN, were not even in the top 20 warmest. The urban heat island explains most of the MILD warming.

So are you saying there are cities in the middle of the ocean that create record warm ocean temperatures? Perhaps there's a giant one creating all that heat in the Arctic? I may be mislead, but I am unaware of such cities.

Radar with california rain.
Quoting 125. Zippit:

Jeff, maybe get out of the office more often? January temps in central MN....exactly CENTRAL Minnesota, St Cloud, MN, were not even in the top 20 warmest. The urban heat island explains most of the MILD warming.
Yes. Just look at this map showing temperature anomalies for the Continental US for January, and you'll see the huge urban heat island encompassing all or part of 42 states, while missing areas such as Denver, Salt Lake City, Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Tucson, and Portland, small and sparsely populated places where the urban heat island effect is clearly not as strong as it is in, say, the fallow wheat fields of North Dakota or the West Texas desert:

Quoting 12. SuperYooper:



When you don't live in the area, citing maps like this is easy work. Since you were not here for 2014 or 2015, let me fill you in on what happened.




The Great Lakes region froze. It was a terrible, no good, very bad thing. Up here in the UP, frost levels went to 12 feet in 13/14, freezing many pipes and making the entire region frozen for the next year because the ground took so long for the thaw and Superior water temps were suppressed. Marquette NWS had a record streak of below freezing temps (if I remember correctly, it was above 90 days) and the snowpiles in my yard were so high that I couldn't throw the snow over them anymore.

So, just 2-3 winters ago, Superior completely froze over and most of the Great Lakes were ice covered as well. Go ahead and blame GW for this year but frankly I won't listen. For my sanity alone, these mild winters keep me going and are part of the natural variability we see every year.
Climate change has nothing to do with the lakes not freezing over, and as far as the hurricane season, I would wait till at least the end of May to make any forecast. If there is a Nino, it al depends on where it sets up, and right now it could be a moderate Modoki type Nino.
Quoting 109. DeepSeaRising:



Trump, Republicans in Congress, and his billionaire class appointments are sticking it to the average American, the environment, and the world; this is atrociously shameful and anyone supporting what the Right and President are doing love a great lie that defies all logic and good.
There is always "puppy therapy" and "safe spaces" you can fall back on.
Quoting 29. SuzK:



I hear you, and am a native Michigander myself, though not UP except through my Finnish ancestry. The thing that occurs to me about your comment is that in an area perpetually enduring extreme cold, why then didn't they plant those pipes deeper underground in the beginning? There was nothing normal about 2014-15 and there is nothing normal happening now, particularly with a heat wave coming down from northern Canada on the way. Don't let it affect your sanity! Magical thinking isn't the answer (or so I keep telling myself). If you pay close attention to daily forecasts, you will see the reality appears to be that our atmosphere is already so changed that barely one forecast turns out to be correct. Sure we might expect a few cockeyed forecasts. Yet every day, every week, every month, for a while now, the weather overwhelms the forecast by about as much difference as the CO2 being added daily to the atmosphere. My husband and I comment on it frequently. No snow tonight? Hurray! What, its snowing? Booo. What, no rain today? An hour later its raining. The world's weather is in the throes of change, and there appears to be not one computer calculation that can predict anything accurately anymore. They come close, sometimes. But when you are 40 miles from home and an ice storm appears out of nowhere, not having been forecast yet again, you really have to ask yourself if anyone knows what is really happening up there, including the supercomputers. The changes are outpacing the calculations.
P.S. I love this blog, and I'm really glad we are focusing on all weather and not only Florida hurricane potentials. Thank you everyone who gives it their all, including Dr Masters and Mr Hensen.
This has happened before, nothing new here move along, and maybe our forecast skills aren't as good as you think they are. A hurricane forecast is easier to predict then the local weather sometimes, as I live in S. Fl. and it is hard on the forecasters to get a correct forecast a lot of the times. This event is not caused by GW or CO2, maybe climate change.
Quoting 80. PensacolaDoug:



The climate is important. Clean air and water is also important. Stigginit to you guys is priceless.
Too bad we couldn't use all the money we are spending, on climate change, something I hope we will never be able to control, and spend all this money on fighting air and water pollution instead. By cleaning up the air and water, you will see far greater benefits to the environment, then trying to control climate change.
From Live Science:

'The Blob' in Pacific Ocean Linked to Spike in Ozone


The "warm blob," seen in April 2015, squished up against the West Coast. The scale bar is in degrees Celsius (each increment is 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Credit: NOAA National Climate Data Center

A warm blob of water lurking in the Pacific Ocean in 2014 and 2015 led to a spike in ozone levels across the western U.S., new research suggests.

[...]

The "blob" ― as meteorologists affectionately called the mass of warm water ― occurred from the winter of 2014 through the summer of 2015, when high sea-surface temperatures prevailed in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. The warmer waters — about 2 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 4 degrees Celsius) higher than average for the region — spanned from the coast of Sitka, Alaska, to Santa Barbara, California, and came with a high-pressure system in the atmosphere that led to low wind speeds, fewer storms and sunnier skies.

The warm blob scrambled the food chain and brought a host of strange ecological effects: The toastier waters fueled some of the worst-ever toxic red tide algal blooms, and marine mammals died in droves as they struggled to find enough food in normally cold, food-rich waters, Jaffe said.

[...]

"When you looked at where the highest temperatures were and the unusual highest ozone levels were, you see an unusually good match," Jaffe told Live Science.

That made the team suspect the blob may have fueled the ozone levels. Ozone forms when hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, which are emitted as pollutants from cars, undergo a complicated chemical reaction with sunlight in the atmosphere. Both sunlight and high temperatures fuel faster ozone-formation, whereas the wind blows away the basic building-block pollutants, making it harder to form ozone, Jaffe said.

[...]

The new findings suggest the blob directly led to dangerous levels of ozone across the western U.S.

What's not known, however, is whether climate change will lead to more of these blobby weather patterns.

"We know it's getting warmer, and the question becomes how will ozone change in the future?" Jaffe said.

Click here to read full article
Good morning guys I noticed some comments on twitter downplaying this SOI plunge with some saying well its because of a low near Tahiti and that is true but its a response to the overall convection pattern across the Pacific shifting to that of El-Nino. Folks all you have to is look at the models and you will see that this plunge is going to last for the next 2 weeks with next week the Pacific entering into a true El-Nino base state. Its funny watching some as their forecast plopped and trying to make excuses of why this SOI drop is occurring. So now we separate the Fake Twitter news to what is really going on and I will show this below as you will see the Euro and its pressure patterns across the Pacific. What you are going to see is consistently very high pressures over Australia with very low pressures over Tahiti. Also notice by day 10 the low pressure just isn't over Tahiti anymore but all of the Eastern ENSO regions.

Current SOI daily numbers.
SOI values for 17 Feb 2017 Average for last 30 days -2.33
Average for last 90 days 1.47
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -51.97

Euro Pressure patterns across the Pacific

Current readings


Day 3


Day 6


Day 8
Pacific switches to El-Nino


Day 10
Looking more and more like a traditional El-Nino
GFS has this California system over FL next Wednesday & Thursday. These totals could be much higher if the GFS and some of these other models verify.





Quoting 127. KoritheMan:



He was talking about a global average. Temperatures being cooler in an extremely small part of the globe wouldn't even make a difference in that average.
Yes that is very true, but unless all these temp readings are taken by the satellites, the urban heating effect will happen world wide to. Back in the 30's when a lot of the record warm temps were taken, there we not nearly as many people or buildings in these same area's as today, thus the surrounding area's would be cooler, from the lack of pavement, roadways, buildings, etc., and a lot more planted area's, thus keeping the temps lower, and the air and water cleaner. If we are using satellite data, then we can only go back to the 70's to track the temps, so what is that, 47 years of actual data, big deal, time wise. You will need a lot more time then that to see a trend in the temps. Now if you are going by thermometers, then you need to find out the location of all the recordings site now and then, and study the change to the environment in those area's. The world is warming, this is true, but by how much, and what percent is caused by man? Climate change happens all the time, and there is very little we can do about it.
Good Morning; here is the Conus forecast for today and current look: more flooding rains for California (along with strong winds)......................

 

WOW. Look at this change just in 2 weeks!

February 2nd


February 16th
Quoting 140. StormTrackerScott:

GFS has this California system over FL next Wednesday & Thursday. This totals could be much higher if the GFS and some of these other models verify.
It could be. From this morning's NWS Miami Forecast Discussion:

Out over the west, a mid-level disturbance will move across the
Rockies by Monday. By Tuesday, it cuts off over Texas and drops
into the Gulf of Mexico. As this disturbance develops and pushes
eastward on Wednesday into Thursday, it will cut across the
peninsula of Florida with the potential of showers and
thunderstorms. The concern for strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out though great uncertainty remains with an event in the
extended forecast period. One thing to note has been the
consistency over the last few days of the GFS and ECMWF with this
system. The GFS has the cutoff low crossing around Tampa while the
ECMWF takes it between Key West and Cuba. This system bears
watching
and expect the forecast to evolve over the coming days as
the potential event time approaches. Much can still change, but
the guidance is being consistent so far with the solution.
Quoting 144. Neapolitan:

It could be. From this morning's NWS Miami Forecast Discussion:

Out over the west, a mid-level disturbance will move across the
Rockies by Monday. By Tuesday, it cuts off over Texas and drops
into the Gulf of Mexico. As this disturbance develops and pushes
eastward on Wednesday into Thursday, it will cut across the
peninsula of Florida with the potential of showers and
thunderstorms. The concern for strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out though great uncertainty remains with an event in the
extended forecast period. One thing to note has been the
consistency over the last few days of the GFS and ECMWF with this
system. The GFS has the cutoff low crossing around Tampa while the
ECMWF takes it between Key West and Cuba. This system bears
watching
and expect the forecast to evolve over the coming days as
the potential event time approaches. Much can still change, but
the guidance is being consistent so far with the solution.


Looks like some much needed rains on the way across FL and this event has the potential to end our short term drought across C & S FL.
potential el nino puts a wrench in everyones 2017 hurricane forecast. it does not reduce the danger.
GFS2017 a little stronger with SE low next week




as compared to the current GFS



Then there is the UKMET dreaming of tropical

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 26.9N 79.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.02.2017 144 26.9N 79.7W 1003 31
Quoting 146. islander101010:

potential el nino puts a wrench in everyones 2017 hurricane forecast. it does not reduce the danger.


No it doesn't at all as the sea surface pattern resembles last year with the warmest sea surface temps near the US. Could be another rough Hurricane Season actually for the US.
NWS Melbourne, Fl...Mon-Thu... Primary attention continues to focus on a potential GOMex
system
that mid range guidance has been hinting at for the past
several days. A very strong zonal jet spans the Pacific Ocean south
of the 40th parallel, with a 180KT core positioned about halfway
btwn the Aleutian and Hawaiian islands. The leading edge of the jet
is beginning to dig off the CA coast and is forecast to become
highly amplified over the next 24-36HRS.

Once it does, the stage will be set for an unsettled WX pattern for
central FL at midweek.
The kink in the mid/upr lvl wind field will
work its way into the Central Plains on Mon before its srn extension
cuts off over the GOMex Tue Night into Wed. Interaction with a deep
lyr anticyclone over the Mid Atlc will generate a brisk E/SE breeze
by daybreak Wed, bcmg S/SW on Thu as the storm core works its way
acrs the FL Peninsula.

While the fcst will be subject revision considering the system is in
the 6-7day timeframe, it should be noted that this unusually
southward track can be favorable for strong or possibly severe
storms with hail and and strong wind gusts in east central Florida.

That low Yall are discussing seems to have the classic signature of a low trajectory gulf low that then swings up the Eastern Seaboard as a potential Nor'Easter so it could be a one-two punch for the South and then the NE............Most important things to look out for is how deep the low gets and whether the jet stream flow sets up over the Gulf as well as the low comes through.  Have to see how much the Pacific jet meanders once the current flow pattern over the Pacific gets to Mexico and the Texas region next week: it looks like a straight shot across Mexico, Texas, and the Gulf headed towards Florida at the moment/current trajectory.


 


NHC Tropical Cyclone Report is out for Nicole.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152016_Nicole. pdf
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Out over the west, a mid-level disturbance will move across the
Rockies by Monday. By Tuesday, it cuts off over Texas and drops
into the Gulf of Mexico. As this disturbance develops and pushes
eastward on Wednesday into Thursday, it will cut across the
peninsula of Florida with the potential of showers and
thunderstorms. The concern for strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out though great uncertainty remains with an event in the
extended forecast period. One thing to note has been the
consistency over the last few days of the GFS and ECMWF with this
system. The GFS has the cutoff low crossing around Tampa while the
ECMWF takes it between Key West and Cuba. This system bears
watching and expect the forecast to evolve over the coming days as
the potential event time approaches. Much can still change, but
the guidance is being consistent so far with the solution.

Link
AGW could give us a show we've never seen before this year. For the second time in recorded history we could see El Nino two out of three years. Too early to tell with any certainty, but it could be another strong El-Nino. With SST's in the Atlantic where they're at we could see for the first time in recorded history an above average hurricane season for the W. Pacific, Central Pacific, E. Pacific, and Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean during an El-Nino. Not to mention I believe our severe weather season this year will not be so light as we've had in recent years. This year could get very expensive and very dangerous very fast across the globe.
Wrote a blog.. There is a link to the petition trying to stop the soon to be injected nuclear waste below the SFL aquifer in there. Those deep wells have a history of failure along the East Coast of Florida, studies show it's a bad idea but FPL has won the fight to do it anyways. It's getting down to last ditch efforts on this issue.

Also crazy surge video from Dineo in there.
Quoting 110. HurricaneFan:


I agree with you. Too much political bickering here on both sides lately. Can't wait for hurricane season to see this blog back to normal.

Many people, if they don't like what's on the menu, don't eat at the restaurant. Just saying'....
NASA's GEOS-5 goes pretty far south with that Gulf of Mexico storm..
Quoting 160. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 goes pretty far south with that Gulf of Mexico storm..



NAVGEM does too.
The average flow at Niagara Falls is 100,000 cfs, same as at Oroville, although half (50,000) is diverted unseen into the turbines.
"Why must there be so much political talk on this blog?" That question is popping up fairly frequently. Indeed, I (and probably many others) would like a blog totally devoid of politics.
However, what we "would like" is NOT what we must do! We are confronted with one political party which is actively enforcing an anti-science, anti-environment agenda. This present administration denies well-documented facts (both scientific and historical), denounces these as "false news", and substitutes their alternative fiction as "the truth". This present administration has elevated, to the highest levels, those who would willingly destroy the environment and stifle the voice of scientists. This present administration is actively seeking to eliminate any dissidence when it comes to their denial of climate change, going so far as to put in place sanctions against those who dare utter the words "climate change". As an engineer--an applied scientist--I am appalled at the anti-intellectualism sweeping our nation. This anti-intellectualism in my opinion is as dangerous as impending climate change, perhaps even more so.

Shall we return to the mentality that dragged Hypatia through the streets until the flesh was ripped from her bones? Shall we return to the mentality that burned Giordano Bruno at the stake? Shall we return to the mentality that convicted Galileo? Their crimes, of course, were merely voicing scientific thought.

I fear that soon our voices as scientists will be silenced. Still perhaps we may speak quietly, as we are led to our imprisonment, "E pur si muove"...."the earth does move!"
Quoting 164. nashvillebill:

Shall we return to the mentality that dragged Hypatia through the streets until the flesh was ripped from her bones? Shall we return to the mentality that burned Giordano Bruno at the stake? Shall we return to the mentality that convicted Galileo? Their crimes, of course, were merely voicing scientific thought.
I'm afraid that is precisely what some want. If scientific truth contradicts one's ideology, or shows that one's worldview is skewed and in need of adjustment, or threatens one's riches, why, then, the only obvious recourse for too many is to make that scientific truth vanish; to drown it in an ocean of denial, to burn its corpse atop a bonfire of false indignation, to crush its charred bones under the weight of oppression, and to bury the powdered remains beneath a mountain of illogical and frightened and desperately anti-intellectual nonsense.

Many are going to be judged, and harshly. They may not care about that judgement, or they may only think they don't. But be judged they will...
From Phys.org:

Climate change doubled the likelihood of the Australian heatwave


Maximum temperature anomalies across NSW on February 11, the peak of the heatwave. Credit: Bureau of Meteorology, Author provided

[...]

Since Christmas, much of eastern Australia has been in a flux of extreme temperatures. This increased frequency of heatwaves shows a strong trend in observations, which is set to continue as the human influence on the climate deepens.

It is all part of a rapid warming trend that over the past decade has seen new heat records in Australia outnumber new cold records by 12 to 1.

Let's be clear, this is not natural. Climate scientists have long been saying that we would feel the impacts of human-caused climate change in heat records first, before noticing the upward swing in average temperatures (although that is happening too). This heatwave is simply the latest example.

What's more, in just a few decades' time, summer conditions like these will be felt across the whole country regularly.

Attributing the heat

The useful thing scientifically about heatwaves is that we can estimate the role that climate change plays in these individual events. This is a relatively new field known as "event attribution", which has grown and improved significantly over the past decade.

Using the Weather@Home climate model, we looked at the role of human-induced climate change in this latest heatwave, as we have for other events before.

We compared the likelihood of such a heatwave in model simulations that factor in human greenhouse gas emissions, compared with simulations in which there is no such human influence. Since 2017 has only just begun, we used model runs representing 2014, which was similarly an El Niño-neutral year, while also experiencing similar levels of human influence on the climate.

Based on this analysis, we found that heatwaves at least as hot as this one are now twice as likely to occur. In the current climate, a heatwave of this severity and extent occurs, on average, once every 120 years, so is still quite rare. However, without human-induced climate change, this heatwave would only occur once every 240 years.

In other words, the waiting time for the recent east Australian heatwave has halved. As climate change worsens in the coming decades, the waiting time will reduce even further.

Our results show very clearly the influence of climate change on this heatwave event. They tell us that what we saw last weekend is a taste of what our future will bring, unless humans can rapidly and deeply cut our greenhouse emissions.

[...]

Click here to read full article.

See also: weather@home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution
Quoting 116. frank727:



It is sad when the Governor of California Jerry Brown has spent 25 billion dollars on sanctuary cities and not cared about the residents of his state to make repairs on the infrastructure.
Infrastructure is an inconvenient truth
The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

☛ “A Cult of Ignorance” by Isaac Asimov.


Quoting 158. Skyepony:

Wrote a blog.. There is a link to the petition trying to stop the soon to be injected nuclear waste below the SFL aquifer in there. Those deep wells have a history of failure along the East Coast of Florida, studies show it's a bad idea but FPL has won the fight to do it anyways. It's getting down to last ditch efforts on this issue.

Also crazy surge video from Dineo in there.
Florida sits atop porous limestone and it could potentially make its way back up into the Aquafer; shame on them........................................
Quoting 160. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 goes pretty far south with that Gulf of Mexico storm..


Could be a very small chance of this system gaining tropical or subtropical characteristics if it emerges far enough south into the GOM, where SSTs are close to 26-27C. However, shear will most likely be too high. Believe it or not, a subtropical storm almost formed in this area in February 2012, so it's not impossible...
Shame?

Off with their heads is a better wording...maybe ?

Emboldened by their Trump, they are doing things today that are utterly destructive.

Take the EPA situ.

You dont think NOAA isn't next on their cut list?

Awaken to reality.

The new norm is anything but.

Dont let it hypnotize one.

All that our fathers past sacrificed, fought and strived for can be gone by 1 April.

Let that sink in.

Oroville Update:

Apparently in the construction of the emergency spillway the contractors used rippers to rip and excavate into the bedrock, removing the rind of rotted rock and anchor into good material and even notes that the good material was so hard as to ruin their equipment made just for such activity. As we discussed before though there is still no way to know if they made the effort to hog out the gullies in the bedrock or simply bridged them with the structure, though in the video of the creation of the main dam it does show them hydro-jetting the bedrock effectively "strip-mining it" so they may have done that under the emergency spillway as well. Also, the spillway was grouted at least on the lakeside to the bedrock as seen in the construction plan detail below. Important to note though that the spillway is not a monolithic concrete block, it has a 4 ft thick concrete cap.

Speculation - the threat was real as the observed erosion indicated. However, the spillway itself may not have catastrophically failed even if the erosion did make it back to the spillway, and then again it might have. Count our blessings that at this point it appears we won't need to find out.

Pithy Comment - Seems like the request for federal disaster funding may have been a little premature.

http://www.petersoncat.com/history/oroville-dam



Also there is a damning picture taken in 2013 going locally viral now showing DWR inspecting an issue at the point of failure suggesting that maybe they new it was a weak spot years ago...

Truth whispers through the reign "I am measurable, you are detestable, your lying words can't stop me." Science screams through the reign "Measurable knows can not be unknown for all the greed in the world won't stop me." Many Americans say through the reign "I don't get involved, it doesn't matter to me, and I'm too well entertained to look anyway." If we don't move, we will be moved, faster and faster for this lie caster, if we're not careful, we will end up in disaster.
21 min ago, AP

AP Top News
Trump weighs mobilizing Nat Guard for immigration roundups


The 11-page document calls for the unprecedented militarization of immigration enforcement as far north as Portland, Oregon, and as far east as New Orleans, Louisiana.
Quoting 172. civEngineer:

Oroville Update:

Apparently in the construction of the emergency spillway the contractors used rippers to rip and excavate into the bedrock, removing the rind of rotted rock and anchor into good material and even notes that the good material was so hard as to ruin their equipment made just for such activity. As we discussed before though there is still no way to know if they made the effort to hog out the gullies in the bedrock or simply bridged them with the structure, though in the video of the creation of the main dam it does show them hydro-jetting the bedrock effectively "strip-mining it" so they may have done that under the emergency spillway as well. Also, the spillway was grouted at least on the lakeside to the bedrock as seen in the construction plan detail below. Important to note though that the spillway is not a monolithic concrete block, it has a 4 ft thick concrete cap.

Speculation - the threat was real as the observed erosion indicated. However, the spillway itself may not have catastrophically failed even if the erosion did make it back to the spillway, and then again it might have. Count our blessings that at this point it appears we won't need to find out.

Pithy Comment - Seems like the request for federal disaster funding may have been a little premature.

http://www.petersoncat.com/history/oroville-dam



Also there is a damning picture going locally viral now showing DWR inspecting weeping where at the point of failure suggesting that maybe they new it was a weak spot years ago...




This was seen on 1/27/2017
http://www.metabunk.org/attachments/20170216-1323 17-vyiah-jpg.24728/
A category 5 spinning harmlessly out to sea will do this blog wonders.
Quoting 169. weathermanwannabe:


Florida sits atop porous limestone and it could potentially make its way back up into the Aquafer; shame on them........................................


It can mix with the treated sewage already being injected down there.
Quoting 175. RitaandIke:



This was seen on 1/27/2017
http://www.metabunk.org/attachments/20170216-1323 17-vyiah-jpg.24728/


great thread at that forum, tons of info
The American people as a whole are unable to grasp the totality of what's happening. So we need a Cat five right? Or some other form of mass distraction. As if we don't have those in spades in America. We need people to unite around a common goal of doing what's right for each other. It's black and white as can be. And yet, we've been so divided, that we can't even see the glaringly obvious. We need to wake the hell up and stop being played against each other like well trained by wolves sheep.
Societies that understand weather (proxy for science) have better crops, and more of their babies survive, and the gene pool is improved.

Societies that tolerate cults of ignorance, have worse crops, and their babies die, again improving the gene pool.

How is asking for something to spin harmlessly out to sea asking for destruction?
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



No it doesn't at all as the sea surface pattern resembles last year with the warmest sea surface temps near the US. Could be another rough Hurricane Season actually for the US.
US hasn't had a rough hurricane season since 2008.
Quoting 181. washingtonian115:

How is asking for something to spin harmlessly out to sea asking for destruction?

The word used was distraction, not destruction.

Quoting 131. MrTornadochase:


So are you saying there are cities in the middle of the ocean that create record warm ocean temperatures? Perhaps there's a giant one creating all that heat in the Arctic? I may be mislead, but I am unaware of such cities.


Check the temperature records for Atlantis.
Mass distraction Wash not mass destruction. Mass destruction of environmental protections should be a concern for us all. History should be a reminder of what America was like before these protections were put in place. To forget is to repeat, history shows us over and over again the truth of just that.
Quoting 172. civEngineer:

Oroville Update:

Apparently in the construction of the emergency spillway the contractors used rippers to rip and excavate into the bedrock, removing the rind of rotted rock and anchor into good material and even notes that the good material was so hard as to ruin their equipment made just for such activity. As we discussed before though there is still no way to know if they made the effort to hog out the gullies in the bedrock or simply bridged them with the structure, though in the video of the creation of the main dam it does show them hydro-jetting the bedrock effectively "strip-mining it" so they may have done that under the emergency spillway as well. Also, the spillway was grouted at least on the lakeside to the bedrock as seen in the construction plan detail below. Important to note though that the spillway is not a monolithic concrete block, it has a 4 ft thick concrete cap.

Speculation - the threat was real as the observed erosion indicated. However, the spillway itself may not have catastrophically failed even if the erosion did make it back to the spillway, and then again it might have. Count our blessings that at this point it appears we won't need to find out.

Pithy Comment - Seems like the request for federal disaster funding may have been a little premature.

http://www.petersoncat.com/history/oroville-dam



Also there is a damning picture taken in 2013 going locally viral now showing DWR inspecting an issue at the point of failure suggesting that maybe they new it was a weak spot years ago...




I am not so certain that the request for federal aid was premature. It was modern day engineers that were looking at the current situation at the dam and they were the ones that were sounding the alarm. I am almost certain that the engineers that had designed the gate system and its spillway had ever envisioned that the spillway would fail as it did.

I also read the article that you linked and the article was far more about the construction equipment used than about the actual construction methods being used. There is very little to be known about how stable the emergency spillway crest would be, with the down slope erosion that did occur, when being based on that article. The drawing only pertains to the construction of the emergency spillway crest itself. As we witnessed, the erosion below the emergency spillway crest was quite severe and came to within a few feet of the west end of the spillway. Perhaps the call for federal aid was premature, but you could not make this assumption based on what we saw happening at the gated spillway and the emergency spillway itself.
Quoting 178. civEngineer:



great thread at that forum, ton's of info


For those of you that go there for the first time, there are 2 sister threads for Oroville as well.
1 covering the erosion at the spillways and 1 regarding the expected rainfall impacts.
Quoting 185. georgevandenberghe:



Check the temperature records for Atlantis.
What are you talking about?
Quoting 114. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



There is a difference between seasonal changes in local climate and changes in the global climate. Global scale climate change will create greater changes in the seasonal changes of the local climate. Perhaps this is a viewpoint that you have never considered before?


His (or her) comment was so fatuously stupid that I assumed that everyone would simply ignore it.
Quoting 190. MontanaZephyr:



His (or her) comment was so fatuously stupid that I assumed that everyone would simply ignore it.


There was a time, not that long ago, that I believed that the vast majority of people would have ignored it. I am no longer so certain that this would be the case. 99.9% of the regulars here would ignore it. The regulars are not the only ones here.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 174. Patrap:

21 min ago, AP

AP Top News
Trump weighs mobilizing Nat Guard for immigration roundups


The 11-page document calls for the unprecedented militarization of immigration enforcement as far north as Portland, Oregon, and as far east as New Orleans, Louisiana.


What does this have to do with weather. If you want to post this stuff go om GLP.
Quoting 189. Gearsts:

What are you talking about?


I believe that it is the lost city of Atlantis and its urban heat island in the ocean.
Quoting 189. Gearsts:

What are you talking about?


Sarcastic response to the comment quoted in 185. Intended for humor.
Quoting 171. Patrap:

Shame?

Off with their heads is a better wording...maybe ?

Emboldened by their Trump, they are doing things today that are utterly destructive.

Take the EPA situ.

You dont think NOAA isn't next on their cut list?

Awaken to reality.

The new norm is anything but.

Dont let it hypnotize one.

All that our fathers past sacrificed, fought and strived for can be gone by 1 April.

Let that sink in.




FWIW, I have come to think that the the House bill to end the EPA (sorry have lost the link), which consists of a single sentence, had two purposes.

1) To put such fear in the proponents of EPA that they will gladly accept ANY changes if only it is allowed to survive, and

2) The Brits used to say, regarding the difference in sensibilities between themselves and the Americans, "The British will let and idea brood to see if anything is going to hatch. The Americans will run an idea up a flagpole to see if anyone salutes". I think that this bill may also secondarily be a case of that.

I've never heard of a piece of federal legislation that consisted of a single sentence, and the sponsoring hoodlums should be run out of office for the crime of offending the populace with such contemptuously reckless stupidity posing as public service.
Quoting 116. frank727:

It is sad when the Governor of California Jerry Brown has spent 25 billion dollars on sanctuary cities and not cared about the residents of his state to make repairs on the infrastructure.
Quoting 167. JNFlori30A:

Infrastructure is an inconvenient truth
If you are inclined to do some thinking then here are some things to think about:

FACT CHECK: Did California Divert Dam Repair Funds to Programs for 'Illegals'? | snopes.com
(Below are excerpts. Click the above link for the complete article.)
Money for the state's dam infrastructure does not come from the same fund as programs that would pay for programs serving immigrants, either with or without documents.

....

While it is true that environmental groups have been warning state and federal authorities about structural deficiencies at Oroville Dam since well before Brown took office, the dam and programs for undocumented immigrants are funded from separate budget sources, thus spending on one does not impact the other. Ted Thomas, spokesman for the California Department of Water Resources, told us:

Lake Oroville is part of the State Water Project, which is owned and operated by the California Department of Water Resources. All of the construction, operation, and maintenance costs of the State Water Project are paid by the 29 public water agencies (known as the SWP contractors) that take delivery of water from the project.

....

In October 2005, as the Oroville Dam was going through a re-licensing process, the three groups filed a motion urging a federal regulatory agency to require state officials to armor the emergency spillway with concrete so that in the event of extreme rain and flooding, water would not freely cascade down and erode the hillside. The upgrade would have cost millions of dollars and no one wanted to foot the bill, said Ronald Stork, senior policy advocate for Friends of the River, one of the groups that filed the motion.

"When the dam is overfull, water goes over that weir and down the hillside, taking much of the hillside with it," Stork told The Washington Post. "That causes huge amounts of havoc. There's roads, there's transmission lines, power lines that are potentially in the way of that water going down that auxiliary spillway."

Federal officials, however, determined that nothing was wrong and the emergency spillway, which can handle 350,000 cubic feet of water per second, "would perform as designed" and sediment resulting from erosion would be insignificant, according to a July 2006 memo from John Onderdonk, then a senior civil engineer for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

....
Those benefiting from the dam's operation should have paid the cost of upgrading the emergency spillway but they were let off the hook by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.


Then consider what exactly is a "sanctuary city"? Since they are not paid for it some city and county jurisdictions refuse to use their local law enforcement officers and jail facilities to detain those who they are supposed to somehow determine might be undocumented immigrants and assume any liabilities for that detention. The local jurisdictions take the view that these things are ICE's (Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a federal agency) responsibilities and liabilities.

What happened when a pro-Trump county discovered it was a 'sanctuary city' - The Washington Post
(Below are excerpts. Click the above link for the complete article.)
The sheriff didn't know what to make of it. Local politicians and residents were stunned. Word was spreading throughout the Appalachian mountain valley that this county, a place so red that Donald Trump walked away with 83 percent of the presidential vote, was considered a "sanctuary city" - a protective refuge where local law enforcement officials refused to cooperate with federal immigration authorities.

....