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So Long, La Niña; Arctic Temperatures Soar 63°F in 24 Hours

By: Jeff Masters 5:15 PM GMT on February 09, 2017

In its latest monthly advisory, issued Thursday, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. SSTs in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) warmed to 0.3°C below average during early February; SSTs of 0.5°C or more below average in this region are required to be classified as weak La Niña conditions. As further evidence of the demise of La Niña, subsurface cold waters across the equatorial Pacific have completely vanished, and much warmer-than-average waters built off the coast of Peru in late January and early February, bringing unusual El Niño-like flooding rains to that nation. The 2016 - 2017 La Niña event was one of the weakest and shorted-lived La Niñas on record, lasting just six months and peaking with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño3.4 region of 0.8° below average. According to CPC, only one other La Niña since 1950 has been this short and weak: the 1967 - 1968 event, which lasted five months, and also peaked at SSTs of 0.8°C below average in the Niño 3.4 region.


Figure 1. Average sea surface temperatures during January 2017, shown as departure from the long-term (1981-2010) average. Weak La Niña conditions were present in the Niño 3.4 region, but the waters were growing unusually warm along the coast of Peru in the Niño 1+2 region. Climate.gov figure from CPC data.

The forecast: Neutral this summer, then El Niño this fall?
In a Thursday ENSO Blog entry, NOAA/CPC’s Emily Becker reviews the El Niño forecast for the rest of 2017. Most computer models agree that neutral conditions will continue into the summer, and forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. After that, it gets complicated. We have a very difficult time predicting the future beyond the March–May period: the so-called spring predictability barrier. “In fact, a forecast made in June for the sea surface temperature in December (six months away) can be more successful than a forecast made in February for May (three months away)!” Becker relates. Some of the computer models are calling for a return of El Niño conditions by the second half of 2017. CPC’s current consensus forecast for the September—November 2017 period estimates a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of El Niño. The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring. If El Niño materializes in 2017, it would give us an unusual three-year series of El Niño/La Niña/El Niño: something that has only happened once since 1950—in 1963/1964/1965.


Figure 2. Weather data from Kap Morris Jesup, Greenland—the northernmost land weather observing station in the world—shows the remarkable surge of warm air that invaded the Arctic this week. The temperature trace (red line in top graph) soared 63°F (34.8°C) in 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. The temperature peaked at 35°F (1.5°C) at 21 UTC February 8.

Summer in February in the Arctic: temperatures surge 63°F in 24 hours in Northern Greenland
The temperature at the northernmost land station in the world, Kap Morris Jesup, located on the northern coast of Greenland at 83.65°N latitude, soared to a remarkable 35°F (1.5°C) on Wednesday—beating the previous day’s high of -22°F by a shocking 57°, and marking a temperature more typical of June at this frigid location. The mercury skyrocketed an astonishing 63°F (34.8°C) in just 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. As summarized by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang on February 6, the incredible warmth in the Arctic is due to a massive hurricane-force North Atlantic storm that bottomed out on Monday with a central pressure of 932 mb—a common reading in Category 4 hurricanes, and one of lowest pressures ever measured in a storm in this region. (He noted that the strongest North Atlantic winter storms on record—in December 1986 and January 1993—had pressures of 900 and 916 millibars, respectively.) The warm air flowing into the Arctic this week was reinforced by a second massive extratropical storm that pounded Iceland on Wednesday, which brought sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 91 mph, to the Reykjavik Airport. Warm air near the freezing point—about 50 to 60°F above average in temperature—likely came close to the North Pole on Thursday morning, according to the latest temperature anomaly maps from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer website. A drifting buoy located near the Pole, at about 87°N latitude, recorded temperatures above freezing once in November 2016 and once in December 2016, and hit 32°F on Friday. The warm air in the Arctic this week continues a trend of record to near-record heat seen in the Arctic throughout the winter of 2016 - 2017. The warm air has helped bring about the lowest arctic sea ice extent ever recorded during January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. in a February 20 interview in the Washington Post, atmospheric physics expert Kent Moore of the University of Toronto noted that these types of anomalous warming events have been recorded since the 1950s, but only occurred once or twice a decade. Record arctic sea ice loss in recent years is allowing these events to occur more frequently. Moore said: “As that sea ice moves northward, there’s a huge reservoir of heat over the north Atlantic. As we lose the sea ice, it allows essentially this reservoir of warmth to move closer to the pole.”

Jeff Masters

El Niño Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The temperature soared 63F in Greenland, yet tonight, it'll have dropped by 50F here in Philly. It got up to 68F yesterday, snowed 5 inches last night, and is gonna be down to 18F tonight. This winter has been bizarre.
January Arctic Sea Ice Volume is Lowest On Record by a Considerable Margin

Almost continuous warm, moist air invasions of the Arctic during fall and winter of 2016 and 2017 have resulted in the lowest sea ice refreeze rates on record. As a result, the amount of ice covering sections of the Northern Hemisphere ocean is now remarkably lower than during past comparable periods. In other words, we’ve never seen a winter in which Northern Hemisphere sea ice was so weak and reduced.

One key measure, sea ice volume, has shown particular losses when compared to past years. And even taking into account a long term trend of ice losses for the northern polar region that has been ongoing since the 20th Century, the 2016-2017 losses stand out like a flashing red indicator light. A trend directly related to the human-forced warming of our world through fossil fuel burning and related greenhouse gas emissions.


Link
This could make for some fascinating weather in the Sierras next winter.
Thanks for the new entry Dr. Masters, and thanks for reminding us of the spring predictability barrier too.

7-day forecast (Celsius):

7-day hindcast (Celsius):

Click to enlarge. Source: Karsten Haustein (karstenhaustein.com/climate).
The 16/17 La Nina was a good La Nina, she gave ample rain to parched California. Farewell sweet princess ... we hardly knew ye.

Jesting aside, could that narrow strip of cold water actually have made and impacts on a global scale when surrounded by all that warm water? Seems like it would result in neutral at best when you consider the tropics as a whole and not just the ITCZ.
Kap Morris Jesup, It's still dark there no sun at all .

Quoting 4. 999Ai2016:

Thanks for the new entry Dr. Masters, and thanks for reminding us of the spring predictability barrier too.

7-day forecast:

7-day hindcast:

Source: Karsten Haustein (karstenhaustein.com/climate).


The arctic sea ice volume is struggling, and somehow temperature anomalies are gonna continue to be like, 20F above normal... yikes.
What do the Northern tip of Greenland , and South Australia have in common ?

They both had a heatwave this week.
Zach Labe on Twitter (1 h ago): "Persistence of 'warmth' this freeze season is quite remarkable. A look at air temperature (925 mb) anomalies since 10/1 over Arctic Ocean":
The way the models are forecasting ESNO conditions for the summer and autumn of 2017, it could be quite possible to have a Modeiki El Nino this hurricane season.
Thank You Dr;  We already "broke" the Arctic over the past 100 years between Co2 induced heating, the industrial pollution issue (soot darkening of glacial regions), and continued and rapid methane/Co2 emissions, right at the source, from melting permafrost. One can argue all you want (and some have) about a one season anomaly in terms of a net-ice gain (of thin ice at that) in one isolated region/area but that argument fails miserably when you consider melting permafrost everywhere else in the Arctic regions.

So Long Arctic as we have known it:

https://www.wired.com/2016/12/global-warming-bene ath-permafrost/


FOR HUNDREDS OF thousands of years, the Siberian permafrost has been a giant freezer for everything buried within it. But global warming has put the frozen ground in defrost mode, and the tundra is now heating up twice as fast as the rest of the planet. “Permafrost is a silent ticking time bomb,” says Robert Spencer, an environmental scientist at Florida State University. As it thaws, the dirt could release a litany of horrors. Beware: The ice-beasts cometh.


So long La Nina:

From the Thomson Reuters Foundation:

Drought dramatically worsens deadly West Nile virus epidemics in U.S. - scientists

More severe drought in the United States in the next 30 years may double the size of future epidemics



LONDON, Feb 8 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Drought has increased the severity of outbreaks of the deadly West Nile virus in the United States, and may double the size of epidemics over the next 30 years, scientists said on Wednesday.

Outbreaks of the mosquito-borne virus have occurred every year since the virus spread to North America in 1999, and in some years caused only a few hundred severe cases nationally.

But in each of three years - 2002, 2003 and 2012 - about 3,000 people suffered brain-damaging meningitis or encephalitis, and almost 300 died.

In some states the number of cases varied 50-fold from year to year.

"We thought epidemics would coincide with the most ideal temperatures for (virus) transmission," Marm Kilpatrick, an associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of California, Santa Cruz, said in a statement.

"Instead, we found that the severity of drought was far more important nationally."

Read more here

The findings were published on Wednesday in the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.2078


KAP MORRIS JESUP-DMI AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION

Well we can rule out the "urban heat island effect" :


"(...) globally, sea ice cover remains at record low levels."
NSIDC - Feb 7 (2017 ushers in record low extent)

Global sea ice extent:

Click to enlarge.
Graph by Wipneus.
Issuing Office: New York City
Source: National.Weather.Service

11:57am EST, Thu Feb 9

... BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 10 TO 16 INCHES. * LOCATIONS... LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPE... HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS. * TIMING... THIS AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS... HAZARDOUS/DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES. WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IS LIKELY. LOCAL POWER OUTAGES WITH DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES POSSIBLE. * WINDS... NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES... FALLING INTO THE 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. &&
More Information
Thanks for the blog update Dr Masters!
A nice balmy 35 in North Greenland (not a joke by any means) means stuff melting you don't want melting this time of year plus other things being affected we don't even know about!) The deniers will say something like "big deal, so it's 35 degrees) Gotta look at the big picture folks!

Here we go again.......it appears the jetstream will be taking aim at the lower lattitudes of California in the not so distant future. After a very wet December( 6.76") and a hugely wet January( 12.25"), February has been a bit quiet so far (but really it has been just over a week since the spigot turned off ) Feb has had 1 storm at my place and recieved .48(still a nice storm by Soo Cal standards) and another on the way for Fri-Sat of the same strength.

And then I read this today!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
941 AM PST Thu Feb 9 2017

SYNOPSIS...
Tranquil and warm conditions will continue today under a ridge of
high pressure. However, areas of fog will affect areas near the
coast and valleys tonight. A storm system will arrive from the
Pacific on Friday, brining rain to the area. The bulk of the rain
will fall Friday evening through the night with showers turning more
scattered on Saturday. It will turn cooler Saturday, then warmer
Sunday and Monday with gusty offshore winds possible, especially
northern areas. More substantial rain and mountain snow could arrive
next week

Things could get interesting late next week. The pattern over the
Pacific is showing the jet stream intensifying and being
displaced further south by week`s end and the energy pointed at
California. This could result in significant precipitation
arriving to the state, including here in Southern California.
Something we will be watching in the days ahead!




The temperature at northernmost land station in the world, Kap Morris Jesup, located on the northern coast of Greenland at 83.65°N latitude, soared to a remarkable 35°F (1.5°C) on Wednesday—beating the previous day’s high of -22°F by a shocking 57°, and marking a temperature more typical of June at this frigid location. The mercury skyrocketed an astonishing 63°F (34.8°C) in just 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. As summarized by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang on February 6, the incredible warmth in the Arctic is due to a massive hurricane-force North Atlantic storm that bottomed out on Monday with a central pressure of 932 mb—a common reading in Category 4 hurricanes, and one of lowest pressures ever measured in a storm in this region. (He noted that the strongest North Atlantic winter storms on record—in December 1986 and January 1993—had pressures of 900 and 916 millibars, respectively.) The warm air flowing into the Arctic this week was reinforced by a second massive extratropical storm that pounded Iceland on Wednesday, which brought sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 91 mph, to the Reykjavik Airport. Warm air near the freezing point—about 50 to 60°F above average in temperature—likely came close to the North Pole on Thursday morning, according to the latest temperature anomaly maps from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer website.
A drifting buoy located near the Pole, at about 87°N latitude, recorded temperatures above freezing once in November 2016 and once in December 2016, but fell short this time, hitting 23°F on Thursday morning. The warm air in the Arctic this week continues a trend of record to near-record heat seen in the Arctic throughout the winter of 2016 - 2017. The warm air has helped bring about the lowest arctic sea ice extent ever recorded during January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.






This is disturbing considering the forecast.
Quoting 18. gr8lakebreeze:




This is disturbing considering the forecast.


Amen
Again and again Nature points up the folly of Man....


Blue Oyster Cult

"Godzilla"
Oroville Dam officials find new damage after water releases, as reservoir level climbs

Read more here: Video
TWEET Grothar@TropicalTwits.com

Very bad blizzard. Very, very bad. Believe me. Never saw anything worse, ever. I wonder why the fake media isn't reporting on this? Terrible! Trust me. P.S. My wife has new jewelry line if anyone is interested.
Look at me! Look how right-minded I am!!! I am an überhuman being with no carbon footprint! Bow before me!
25. vis0
As to any whiteout conditions that should be over Long Island, NY towards Massachusetts.

 

 

Be careful tonite as to icey conditions.

 

[humour]  For us Manhattanites it was  very dangerous.   You could not walk from one isle to the next in the Bodega without slightly sliding.  In fact i myself slipped onto the one ply generic toilet tissue display and was luckily i had not suffered chaffing, it was very possible!   DON'T ask how i know 'bout the generic tissue and chaffing  [humour]
 
So far 5 inches have fallen OFFICIALLY in Central park, Manhattan while JFK airport ~27 miles SE from me has 9 inches.  Guess which measurement will be used by the TV forecasters whose forecast had a foot in Manhattan as they have reporters stand in front of abandoned buildings (not plowed)?

Now as to the blogbyte.
The eastern side of N/ Hem LOWs usually pulls the warmer air towards Greenland while the western side the colder air comes down and from the west/WSW /SW of Greenland.  But since these western/SW areas have not really been cold / super cold  it seems the western side of the low will not pull towards Greenland a counterbalance of super cold air so this LOW creating Blizzard conditions in Long Island NY will be generally on the warmer side as compared to LOWs from 20 to 40 years ago and especially from 60 years ago and back.

As to Las Nina / El Crazio.


It seems that maybe as the oceans warm and acidify a different scale will be needed to measure what were La Nina and El Nino outflows. as acidifying might neutralize the salts action in weighing downward areas of those the streams of moving ocean waters (where some scientists connect the stopping of one of the 3 known vitalspherical circulations (my title from my 1970s pages) of a living planet Atmospheric circulation, Oceanic circulation, Electromagnetic circulation (the Hz i've mentioned that has risen thus showing illness).  Then 2 more i state are the magmaspherical circulation (what i tap into via majekal devices) where there are Highs/LOWs/fronts moving super slow BUT NOT THE ACTUAL POLARITIES of the planet but a form of static and the slowest circulation which is the tectonics circulation.  The latter is what will restart life on this planet if all others stop but that "restart" is not for hundreds of millions of years AFTER all else stops...see MARS for more.. 
Also if/as the ocean warms then only anomalies can be used to compare to previous Nino/Nina cycles as we might not see a La Nina reach what was the actual cooler numbers of yesteryears.  

So again the aGW creates a new plateau as to readings plus throws a monkey wrench into predictions if one only uses the old atmospheres readings (as another member stated a few of Dr. Masters/Mr Henson blogbytes ago) and that need to re-chart old readings makes $keptics yell see they are changing the numbers when what is happening is we need to constantly adjust old charts to the ever-changing...

 (Keeperogates in background saying fasta and fasta as its too fast to say faster and faster)

...atmosphere man has poisoned and those that have only interest via their greed and sadistic ways create alternate truths to delay  the start of truly working on getting the planet on a healthy diet. of cleaner air and cleaner water. 
You know how you had to change those charts you had showing feet and inches to meters and centimeters so now things that where a 12 inch swing and a miss in baseball becomes a 304 millimeter swing and a miss same distance different numbers. If one has to adjust numbers and the formula used are equally-stable throughout all changes then its the final result in comparing numbers are fair n balanced (see what i did there)

That is all Mamanana ask for, is that too much> Give me clean air and clean water and i'll give you a planet were all kids no matter from what area of the globe the where born can enjoy life to its fullest.
 
So we wait for El Nino to come out of el Bano paraphrasing aquak9.
Quoting 18. gr8lakebreeze:



They did a test run at 20,000 CFS to determine the pace of erosion. Turns out fast. The pictures that have been floating around are a little misleading though making it seem that the hole is right near the crest when in reality it is approximately 2000 horizontal feet from the crest. It is extremely unlikely to erode the entire mountain back to the spillway gates especially since the upper portion was likely blasted through the mountain's bedrock, but, since they will have no choice but to release water due to the incoming storms it is thought that the rest of the spillway below the failure will be lost by the end of the wet season.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters...
CaribBoy favorite time of the year.
Quoting 22. Grothar:
TWEET Grothar@TropicalTwits.com

Very bad blizzard. Very, very bad. Believe me. Never saw anything worse, ever. I wonder why the fake media isn't reporting on this? Terrible! Trust me. P.S. My wife has new jewelry line if anyone is interested.


You forgot to add that one final word- "SHINY!"
ABOUT OROVILLE DAM
(From Wikipedia)

Oroville Dam is an earthfill embankment dam on the Feather River east of the city of Oroville, California in the United States. At 770 feet (230 m) high, it is the tallest dam in the U.S. and serves mainly for water supply, hydroelectricity generation and flood control. The dam impounds Lake Oroville, the second largest man-made lake in the state of California, capable of storing more than 3.5 million acre-feet (4.4 km3), and is located in the Sierra Nevada foothills east of the Sacramento Valley.
I'm sure someone already organized a boat mission for springtime across and around Svalbard, to pick up the young and the starved & exhausted mothers and carry them to their habitat.

(Signed, Nanuk.
Delivered, Nemesis.)
Bugs on the windshield at mile marker # 24.
Quoting 26. civEngineer:



They did a test run at 20,000 CFS to determine the pace of erosion. Turns out fast. The pictures that have been floating around are a little misleading though making it seem that the hole is right near the crest when in reality it is approximately 2000 horizontal feet from the crest. It is extremely unlikely to erode the entire mountain back to the spillway gates especially since the upper portion was likely blasted through the mountain's bedrock, but, since they will have no choice but to release water due to the incoming storms it is thought that the rest of the spillway below the failure will be lost by the end of the wet season.

It isn't the particulars of the soil at the break in the spillway that's most concerning. It's what it might be signifying about the dam itself which is mostly earthen. Add to that the necessity of having to hold back the tremendous additional pressure of a full-to-the-brim Lake Oroville.
Olive Oil Prices Are Going Through the Roof
Bloomberg - Feb 9.
Oil hoarding of a new kind after terrible harvests in Italy, Spain and Greece.
First came zucchini and eggplant shortages. Then Iceberg lettuce disappeared from European
grocery shelves. Now erratic weather in Spain and Italy, the world's biggest producers, is rippling through global olive oil markets, and it's about to get worse. (...)


How the effects of climate change in one place can radiate all over the world
The Washington Post - June 2016.
Quoting 8. RobertWC:

What do the Northern tip of Greenland , and South Australia have in common ?

They both had a heatwave this week.

The Aussie one now moving for a crescendo for two days.
33. BayFog

Just a guess but all those years of drought drying out the Earth and shrinking it , then the intense swing to wet. Then hitting the spillway , just before runoff begins, not gonna be cheap or easy the spackle that hole.
After a very boring winter here in D.C I hope we at least have a few good out to sea'ers to track this hurricane season.Unfortunately most of the storms last year were land lovers.
Quoting 34. 999Ai2016:

Olive Oil Prices Are Going Through the Roof
Bloomberg - Feb 9.
Oil hoarding of a new kind after terrible harvests in Italy, Spain and Greece.
First came zucchini and eggplant shortages. Then Iceberg lettuce disappeared from European
grocery shelves. Now erratic weather in Spain and Italy, the world's biggest producers, is rippling through global olive oil markets, and it's about to get worse. (...)


How the effects of climate change in one place can radiate all over the world
The Washington Post - June 2016.

Olive trees are pretty tough. Some are over a thousand years old and still producing. And they are now spread across the globe, including here in California.
Quoting 33. BayFog:


Design/Construction of the spillway wouldn't be a reflection of construction of the dam itself. The failure of the spillway was created by what is known as "piping" in the engineering construction world which is waters proclivity to travel along a concrete surface vs through the soil. In short it appears the right side of the spillway eroded and created a channelized path along the spillway. Water from inside the spillway then found a path through the cracks in the spillway and traveled under the concrete (piping) and carried sediment with it to the shortcut freshly eroded path outside of the spillway.

The key requirement is piping water. The earthen dams are built first by excavating to an impermeable layer, most likely bedrock in this case, then placing an impermeable core (clay) then placing bolder cobbles over the impermeable core. So the potential for a failure resulting from piping through or under the dam itself is virtually non existent. Really the only threat of failure at the dam would be from a landslide of the hills on either side of the dam.
just did a lotta reading up on oroville dam, and google-earth'd it, too. Whoa, people. Damn dam. No actually the dam seems ok, but the spillway. Ohh boy.
Mid 60s and sunshine in SE TX

Front has slowed to nearly stationary over the northern SF Bay Area, possibly signifying a wave forming to the southwest. This will increase the amount of time where rain is falling in any given spot. The satellite image also seems to indicate a secondary front taking shape behind the main front, probably marking the surge that came out of western Canada over the past several days. Snow level in the Sierra remains elevated in the subtropical plume ahead of the front, currently at about 8500 feet in the Central Sierra, and 9500 feet south.
Quoting 34. 999Ai2016:

Olive Oil Prices Are Going Through the Roof
Bloomberg - Feb 9.
Oil hoarding of a new kind after terrible harvests in Italy, Spain and Greece.
First came zucchini and eggplant shortages. Then Iceberg lettuce disappeared from European
grocery shelves. Now erratic weather in Spain and Italy, the world's biggest producers, is rippling through global olive oil markets, and it's about to get worse. (...)


How the effects of climate change in one place can radiate all over the world
The Washington Post - June 2016.


Always been thru the roof...research agro mafia
Quoting 32. RobertWC:

Bugs on the windshield at mile marker # 24.


Those were screwworm flies...

"More than 101 million sterile screwworm flies have been released in the Keys."

Link

Current conditions where I'm sitting(Mile Marker 24):

Elev 25 ft 24.65 N, 81.41 W | Updated 2 min ago

Clear
Clear
79.2 F
Feels Like 82 F
N14.6
Wind from WNW
Gusts 17.4 mph
Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday.
Today
High 82 | Low 67 F
20% Chance of Precip.
Quoting 38. BayFog:

Olive trees are pretty tough. Some are over a thousand years old and still producing. And they are now spread across the globe, including here in California.

They've got a serious problem though, on top of the bad weather:

Bacteria that kills olive trees spreads from Italy to Spain's Balearic Islands

The regional government has destroyed 2,000 specimens affected by the disease
El Pais, Palma de Mallorca 8 FEB 2017 - 13:30 CET
The regional government of the Balearic Islands says Xylella fastidiosa, a bacterium that kills fruit-bearing plants such as olive trees, is now threatening its agricultural sector. In a bid to control its spread, authorities have destroyed some 2,000 fruit trees so far. At the same time, a ban has been imposed on the export of fruit or cuttings from susceptible species such as olives, cherries, grapes and almonds, as well as ornamental fruits. ...
nasty stuff....quite a plume ......nothing rising in that stuff
Quoting 28. Gearsts:

CaribBoy favorite time of the year.



credit: https://twitter.com/MickWest
I beginning to suspect that our membership join date and comment count will never return. Does anyone know?
Quoting 40. aquak9:

just did a lotta reading up on oroville dam, and google-earth'd it, too. Whoa, people. Damn dam. No actually the dam seems ok, but the spillway. Ohh boy.




You've seen with your own eye's what Mans designs can do,..when the fail horrendously indeed.


Natures fury is going to bring more hard lessons as we keep infusing the CO2 into the terraforming experiment Globally.

Imagine if we could have added the same with O2 and water to Mars over 200 years in a experiment in terraforming.

We have changed the atmosphere so fast that natures pace and forcings are now beyond repair for a 1000 years.

And we all are going to witness the backlash in ways we cannot model. Or foresee,save for that they will be drastic.

A Phd recently asked me face to face over lunch at the AGU conference in December, "So Patrick what do you think would happen if a Category 5 came in like Katrina now?

I gasped inside,..sipped my Fresca and said.

I wont be there, Don't be there..don't be in Mobile Bay, nor Houma as well.

You will die.

Pass the tabasco'







#Update Thursday. Both sides have crumbled off. Dam road closed bill husa (@billhusa1)This is disturbing considering the forecast.
Lets hope it doesn't do anything further during the next two days. They have until next weekend to figure out what to do and do it before the whole spillway is gone.

45th Anniversary of African Easterly Wave paper


In the January 1972 issue of the Journal of Atmospheric Science, Robert W. Burpee (future director of HRD) published a paper explaining the mechanism by which African Easterly Waves (AEW) formed. Using five years of upper-air data from above Africa, he demonstrated that airflow over the Ethiopian highlands created instabilities in the wind stream that moved downwind over the Atlantic Ocean. These waves are regular features of the tropical Atlantic during the summer and early fall and spawn roughly half of the tropical cyclones that form in the Atlantic, and many others in the Eastern Pacific.
Snow level in the Sierra remains elevated in the subtropical plume ahead of the front, currently at about 8500 feet in the Central Sierra, and 9500 feet south

Just nuts.
56. vis0
Quoting 8. RobertWC:

What do the Northern tip of Greenland , and South Australia have in common ?

They both had a heatwave this week.
au contraire


What do any two points on the planet have in common over the past several decades?

Le globe has been on a warmwave for several decades   so the long-term shows 2 warming points.

to
shea   citifield...

The point is well known by Sir RobertWC.      Though we have 2 areas going through a heatwave that heatwave is on top of an already warmer starting/base point .  In time people will say whew that was a week long heatwave then say glad its cooler as temps finally  went below 95.


As to the dangers of west-nile.

Again the less complex animal world to least complex / insects do not care if their luggage became lost, if their DISH can receive all 4000 channels, if the local gas station has premium. 

Their biggest worries are weather extremes and have had millions of years to develope ways to survive MOST weather extremes. 
If its to wet they find puddles higher up.
 If its too dry the mosquitoes find the shady side of any natural object and remain cooler then travel at might 

BUT THERE is one thing that mosquitoes and most less complex animals/creature fear.  The temperature extreme as to the opposite side of whence they thrive.  Its a natural defense created by nature for your pleasure/convenience  and ya need not pay TAX on it nor pay a pharmaceutical company for it.

 If its a creature of warmth the heat they can survive if a creature of coolness cold they can survive. 
Since mosquitoes need warmth for several reasons including the don't have the ability not large enough wings and "engines" to carry the needed blubber to stay warm they they die or fly  away like scare-dee cats from cold weather (cold means drier air, means less moisture for larva to survive). 
Now as we see the warmth heading more pole-ward so will our little buggers.  Wouldn't it be wild if people from northern Lats one day need the blood of Equatorial people to fight off some rare mosquito bite in which those near the Equator have become natural immune to.usually the elderly immunize first then the genes are passed to youngins in those families IF the parents are a bit older then have children later.

 Can you say por favour?

Thank You for the info RoberWC,  but i had to checkmate ya...sadly with my "win" its more LOSE LOSE for humanity.
Since the historic 2005 hurricane season I have looked for any correlation in SST anomalies using 2005 as a benchmark. Haven't found one yet, but I keep looking anyway.

SST anomalies February 8, 2005


SST anomalies February 6, 2017

Quoting 50. tuckernpurrs:

#Update Thursday. Both sides have crumbled off. Dam road closed bill husa (@billhusa1)This is disturbing considering the forecast.
Lets hope it doesn't do anything further during the next two days. They have until next weekend to figure out what to do and do it before the whole spillway is gone.



image credit: https://twitter.com/MickWest
***

From the image in #47 they have heavy equipment working to contain a slip that's propagating up the L side. The spillway will be unusable until completely reconstructed.

From the image above, the spillway and the emergency spillway don't interact with the earthen part of the dam, but it looks like they're on what passes for bedrock out there.

A little "stormy" on both flanks of the US at the moment:






Olive oil production -

So after the Northeast digs out of this fast moving system Sunday a much longer lasting system is going to hammer you again.Did you see the graphics on that system, unreal winds with snow event lasting 20 to 24 hours for some ouch.
My Daughter in Western Mass just sent me a pic of her car in the parking lot of the apartment; looks like all the cars in the parking lot are up to the bottom of their doors in fresh snow and looks like about an inch or two on the roof of every car as well........Glad I live in Florida..............
Quoting 50. tuckernpurrs:

#Update Thursday. Both sides have crumbled off. Dam road closed bill husa (@billhusa1)This is disturbing considering the forecast.
Lets hope it doesn't do anything further during the next two days. They have until next weekend to figure out what to do and do it before the whole spillway is gone.


At this point there is nothing they can do to save the lower spillway. Their main concern will be preventing the head of the break from moving uphill.
Not good for Atlantic fans...
56. vis0

Roger that.

It's the tiny things that have already made the jump to our brave new world. I'm waiting for fungus to roll out some new models attacking our food supply.
I put this up on the last thread, but it bears repeating -

Climate change linked to seafood bacteria

A link between climate change and a new strain of bacteria has helped scientists understand why more seafood lovers are being poisoned.
Scientists studying oysters along America’s Atlantic Coast have discovered a possible link between climate change and an increase in the number of seafood lovers getting sick from eating shellfish.

Researchers at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) have found a new strain of the bacteria vibrio parahaemolyticus, the world’s leading culprit of contamination in shellfish that, when eaten, causes diarrhoea, vomiting and abdominal pain. In rare cases, people have died from contracting lethal septicaemia.

Cheryl Whistler and her colleagues discovered the new strain ST631 and detailed their findings in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology and the findings build on earlier studies showing the role climate change is playing in the spread of pathogens like vibrio parahaemolyticus.


Link
Well over a foot of snow here in New Hampshire and still coming down at a decent rate.
Air temp: 18 degrees F
Whiteout conditions driving home earlier, just scary.
Quoting 48. washingaway:

I beginning to suspect that our membership join date and comment count will never return. Does anyone know?


I think you are correct, we have lost that functionality. Due to all the blog problems over the past year, we are looking at the feasibility of completely junking the current blog software and using a third-party system called Drupal. I have a second training session Monday on using Drupal, and have been impressed with it so far. I think is likely we will be switching over to Drupal before hurricane season, and the entire blog system will change substantially in this event.

Jeff Masters


“Food Security, Forests at Risk Under Trump’s USDA”

The USDA’s climate programs extend far beyond farms. As America’s largest forest manager, Perdue will determine the direction of the science conducted by the U.S. Forest Service and whether some of America’s most carbon-dense and diverse forests are clear cut for timber harvesting or managed to sustain and blunt the impacts of climate change.

“Just about every activity that the USDA regulates is likely to impact climate policy,” said Mark Squillace, a natural resources law professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder. “Forests and soils store vast amounts of carbon. When forests are logged or when they burn, much of that stored carbon is released into the atmosphere. Crop farming also contributes to climate change by releasing large quantities of nitrous oxides, much of it from fertilizers, and animal farming contributes vast amounts of methane especially from ruminant animals.”

If the USDA dismisses the threat of climate change, “then there is reason for grave concern,” said Michael P. Hoffman, executive director of the Cornell University Institute for Climate Smart Solutions, which focuses on sustainable agriculture.
Quoting 68. JeffMasters:

"After the gathering comes the scattering ..." ;-)
Thanks for letting us know, doc!
Change . Hard pill to swallow .

Lay of the land of the Oroville Dam before the damage to the spillway.


Quoting 66. RobertWC:

I put this up on the last thread, but it bears repeating -

Climate change linked to seafood bacteria

A link between climate change and a new strain of bacteria has helped scientists understand why more seafood lovers are being poisoned.
Scientists studying oysters along America’s Atlantic Coast have discovered a possible link between climate change and an increase in the number of seafood lovers getting sick from eating shellfish.

Researchers at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) have found a new strain of the bacteria vibrio parahaemolyticus, the world’s leading culprit of contamination in shellfish that, when eaten, causes diarrhoea, vomiting and abdominal pain. In rare cases, people have died from contracting lethal septicaemia.

Cheryl Whistler and her colleagues discovered the new strain ST631 and detailed their findings in the Journal of Clinical Microbiology and the findings build on earlier studies showing the role climate change is playing in the spread of pathogens like vibrio parahaemolyticus.


Link


So eating oysters will be like eating Fugu (pufferfish) in Japan. A delicacy but if any mistakes are made in preparation, you die.

"Last night he and I ate Fugu
Today I carry his coffin". Japanese saying
How about a nice afternoon tonic ?



Dire Straits - The Bug + lyrics
As they are used to fierce windstorms in Iceland, the one they've got yesterday - the second one mentioned in the current blog entry - must have been some to remember:

Storm Causes Damage in Ski Area
Iceland Review, by Vala Hafstað about 6 hours agoUpdated: February 09, 2017 14:32
Yesterday’s storm caused damage at the Bláfjöll Ski Resort, just east of Reykjavík, RÚV reports. Einar Bjarnason, operational manager, describes the weather as among the worst he has experienced in the area. The wind was strong and steady and there were severe wind gusts, he noted.
Ski hut window panes broke and roof edges were blown off. “This was completely indescribable,” Einar remarked, but he has worked in the area for more than a decade.
The conveyor belt in Kóngsgil ravine was damaged, even though weight had been put on it to hold it in place. Einar watched it roll up and get torn apart in the wind, so it will have to be replaced.
The cost of the damage remains to be assessed. ...
Quoting 44. ChillinInTheKeys:



Those were screwworm flies...

"More than 101 million sterile screwworm flies have been released in the Keys."

Link

Current conditions where I'm sitting(Mile Marker 24):

Elev 25 ft 24.65 N, 81.41 W | Updated 2 min ago

Clear
Clear
79.2 F
Feels Like 82 F
N14.6
Wind from WNW
Gusts 17.4 mph
Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday.
Today
High 82 | Low 67 F
20% Chance of Precip.



Screworms were eradicated using this method in the 50s in the U.S. The program was outstandingly successful. They were eradicated from Mexico in the 70s and 80s the same way. We are always vulnerable to recolonisation from places they still survive such as some carribean islands. THis is a horrible horrible insect for cattlemen by the way because the maggots attack living flesh rather than dead and animals can't clean them out of wounds.

BTW the infamous Boll Weevil was eradicated from almost all of the U.S in about calendar 2010 after a long tough effort that started in the late 70s and slowly and steadily cleaned them out of first the upper South and then the Lower South and Texas. Eradication in Texas remains incomplete because of reinfestation from Mexico.

(and to answer the certain to be asked question.. no a wall will not stop a flying insect)


Thanks Dr. for the update; had to put my glasses on for the clarification on the new potential software program; at first glance (without the lenses) I thought it said Ru Paul......................
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR NORTHEAST U.S. WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EST THU FEB 09 2017


Mass jumps to the lead.....

...MASSACHUSETTS...
LUDLOW 18.0


AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND MOVES UP THE NORTHEAST
COAST...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
TAPERING OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY TONIGHT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES FROM LONG ISLAND TO
EASTERN MAINE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
FOR PORTIONS OF MAINE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE COAST.
Quoting 77. Gearsts:




GFS...eeek.

Thank you for responding Dr. Masters. I am sad to lose that function. I was trying to catch up with Patrap on his comment count and the last time I saw it I only had to post about 140,000 more comments to do it. :)
Quoting 73. georgevandenberghe:





So eating oysters will be like eating Fugu (pufferfish) in Japan. A delicacy but if any mistakes are made in preparation, you die.

"Last night he and I ate Fugu
Today I carry his coffin". Japanese saying


Well, it's a bit of a stretch , the chef's knife , can carve away at the Fugu. Vibrio parahaemolyticus ST631 doesn't care what we do . I'm glad I'm not an oyster framer.
Quoting 48. washingaway:

I beginning to suspect that our membership join date and comment count will never return. Does anyone know?


There is still a comment number on the Blog Directory Page under Community Participation (on the right). Haven't checked if it is still updating.
Quoting 81. washingaway:

Thank you for responding Dr. Masters. I am sad to lose that function. I was trying to catch up with Patrap on his comment count and the last time I saw it I only had to post about 140,000 more comments to do it. :)



And those dogs with the little lady in a bath tub ............... Insert smiley face here.
Quoting 58. no1der:




image credit: https://twitter.com/MickWest
***

From the image in #47 they have heavy equipment working to contain a slip that's propagating up the L side. The spillway will be unusable until completely reconstructed.

From the image above, the spillway and the emergency spillway don't interact with the earthen part of the dam, but it looks like they're on what passes for bedrock out there.



The Sierra foothills are not granitic in contrast to the High Sierra. The "bedrock" is much like it is around the SF Bay Area, a gravely mish mash with occasional volcanic blocks, and soft, barely solidified sedimentary "rock" formations. This type of rock is notorious for its instability on slopes when saturated, or when there's seismic activity. Now look at the photo and the spur of land upon which the spillway sits.

Whatever its composition, that's what's apparently undermined the spillway. I'm pretty sure they did not construct an "impermeable clay layer" within that spur. And bear in mind, that spur is what the north end of the earthen dam is attached to. If it gives way from internal saturation or is eroded away...well, too soon to be alarmist, especially since we're not the experts, but certainly worthy of attention.
Quoting 55. RobertWC:

Snow level in the Sierra remains elevated in the subtropical plume ahead of the front, currently at about 8500 feet in the Central Sierra, and 9500 feet south

Just nuts.


But at least they've been getting snow. Just a few years ago the Sierra didn't have any snow at all. This has been one of the best Winters in a while for the Sierra.
Flood Warning
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
643 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

CAC003-005-007-009-011-017-021-033-035-057-061-06 3-067-077-089-091-
095-099-101-103-109-113-115-111715-
/O.CON.KSTO.FA.W.0009.000000T0000Z-170211T1715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Colusa CA-Yolo CA-Sutter CA-Solano CA-Plumas CA-Alpine CA-Placer CA-
Shasta CA-Lassen CA-Amador CA-Tuolumne CA-Sacramento CA-Lake CA-
Stanislaus CA-San Joaquin CA-El Dorado CA-Calaveras CA-Tehama CA-
Butte CA-Glenn CA-Sierra CA-Yuba CA-Nevada CA-
643 AM PST THU FEB 9 2017

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
COLUSA...YOLO...SUTTER...SOLANO...PLUMAS...ALPINE ...PLACER...
SHASTA...LASSEN...AMADOR...TUOLUMNE...SACRAMENTO. ..LAKE...
STANISLAUS...SAN JOAQUIN...EL DORADO...CALAVERAS...TEHAMA...BUTTE...
GLENN...SIERRA...YUBA AND NEVADA COUNTIES...

Two day rainfall totals between 5 and 9 inches have been measured in
the northern Sierra, bringing river and stream rises across the
area. High river and stream flows in the Sierra, such as the upper
portions of the Feather River system, are already occurring and will
continue through Saturday.

Widespread moderate to heavy rain will return to northern California
today through this evening, tapering to mountain snow showers
tonight through Friday. Despite precipitation ending, high river and
stream flows will continue through early Saturday.

Moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to increase stream flows
and could lead to urban roadway flooding. Mud slides are also
possible, especially for mountain roads and burn scars."

Lake Oroville is in Butte County. The town of Oroville is currently reporting moderate rain, and it's raining across the Feather River watershed up to the 8500 foot level, which means snowmelt adding to the runoff into Lake Oroville. The front offshore has been nearly stationary, allowing the subtropical plume to dwell across northern California. Flash flood warnings are out for the coastal valleys while the Sacramento River is expected to crest above the 114 foot flood stage and into its various bypasses.

Quoting 68. JeffMasters:



I think you are correct, we have lost that functionality. Due to all the blog problems over the past year, we are looking at the feasibility of completely junking the current blog software and using a third-party system called Drupal. I have a second training session Monday on using Drupal, and have been impressed with it so far. I think is likely we will be switching over to Drupal before hurricane season, and the entire blog system will change substantially in this event.

Jeff Masters

Oklahoma State University uses Drupal for unsecured web content. In case you want feedback from an organization that has implemented it on a grand scale, they have a web developers group website at: https://webgroup.okstate.edu/drupal-resources


There she goes, the spillway that is.
Looks like they are letting around 25,000 CFS down the damaged spillway at Oroville and the results are crazy. I suppose the key question is how quickly this will erode up the spillway towards the gates.

Extreme heat brings health, fire and power cut warnings across south-eastern Australia
States from South Australia to Queensland prepare for temperatures above 40C as parliamentary inquiry examines power supply crisis
Australian Associated Press, The Guardian, Thursday 9 February 2017 20.27 GMT
Authorities have warned of health risks, catastrophic bushfire danger and possible power cuts as southern and eastern Australia faces several days of extreme heat.
Temperatures are tipped to rise as high as 48C (118F) in some parts of New South Wales, with total fires bans and extreme or severe fire danger warnings in place across most of the state.
Western Sydney was forecast to reach 44C (111F) on Friday, while the city centre was expected to record 38C, leading the Australian Energy Market Operator to forecast record demand for power between 4.30pm and 6.30pm and possible blackouts across the state. ...


MAPS: A 'horrifying' three-day heatwave hits Australia's east coast today
BI, Paul Colgan, Feb 10, 2017, 4:04 AM


More maps see link above.
Quoting 88. Sfloridacat5:



But at least they've been getting snow. Just a few years ago the Sierra didn't have any snow at all. This has been one of the best Winters in a while for the Sierra.


Yep, but the bald man is only growing hair at the very top of his head. He should have hair down to his side burns. I guarantee these warm rains are giving a haircut to the snow pack . So water stored in shade of the forest is melting in early Feb. Not 60 days from now. This warm rain eats snow.

That was my point. It's still winter , it should not be raining at 9,500 ft . But the heat coming off the Pacific is part of an army of BTU's out to kill every frozen water molecule on Earth . It went to the top of Greenland again this week , and it's hunting at the top of the Sierra.

That's nuts
Quoting 81. washingaway:

Thank you for responding Dr. Masters. I am sad to lose that function. I was trying to catch up with Patrap on his comment count and the last time I saw it I only had to post about 140,000 more comments to do it. :)



You have the same join date as Patrap and you let him get 140,000 comments ahead of you? ;)

you can catch up by posting a link to each of his comments, one at a time. I was thinking about doing that myself.
Vic / February 9, 2017
Australia%u2019s Deputy Prime Minister in Parliament today juggling a lump of coal. Hey, at least he stopped short of throwing it across the room.

Quoting 91. gr8lakebreeze:



There she goes, the spillway that is.


Caption: 09.02.2017
So much sediment and debris are washing into the Feather River from the fractured spillway at Oroville Dam that workers on Thursday were frantically racing to transport by truck 4 million baby salmon from a downstream hatchery before they die in the thick, muddy waters.
“They have turbidity in the river like they’ve never seen before,” said Harry Morse, a spokesman for the California Department of Fish and Wildlife. Turbidity is a technical term that refers to how cloudy the water is. Morse said the hatchery has no method of filtering water as brown as it was Thursday.
Meanwhile, state dam officials made a third release from the dam Thursday morning that sent a roaring river of muddy water down the spillway. Officials at the scene said the release was expected to reach 35,000 cubic feet of water per second, or nearly twice as much as Wednesday’s controlled release, which was designed to test how much water could run past the damaged section without further eroding the chute.
Massive gushes of brown water ran out the right side of the damaged spillway Thursday. Officials said work crews had been out earlier in the day, cutting down trees near the bottom of the spillway in an effort to lessen the debris washing into the Feather River below the dam.
From UCI:

UCI, NASA reveal new details of Greenland ice loss


Maps of the northwest Greenland coastline before (left) and after (right) OMG data were incorporated. The coastline itself -- the edge of the glacier ice -- appears as a faint white line. The right-hand image shows several previously unknown troughs revealed by the OMG seafloor survey. Credit: UCI

Data are dramatically increasing knowledge of how the ocean is melting the ice sheet

Irvine, Calif., Feb. 9, 2017 – Less than a year after the first research flight kicked off NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland campaign, data from the new program are providing a dramatic increase in knowledge of how Greenland’s ice sheet is melting from below. Two new research papers in the journal Oceanography, including one by UCI Earth system scientist Mathieu Morlighem, use OMG observations to document how meltwater and ocean currents are interacting along Greenland’s west coast and to improve seafloor maps used to predict future melting and sea level rise.

[...]

In the first paper, UCI’s Morlighem used the OMG surveys to refine and improve maps of the bedrock under some of the west coast glaciers. Glaciologists worldwide use these and other maps in modeling the rate of ice loss in Greenland and projecting future losses.

A coastal glacier’s response to a warming climate depends heavily not only on the depth of the seafloor in front of it, but on the shape of the bedrock below. [...]

Morlighem noted, “OMG [data are]not only improving our knowledge of the ocean floor, they’re improving our knowledge of the topography of the land, too.” This is because the campaign’s seafloor survey revealed features under the ocean, such as troughs cut by glaciers during the last ice age, that must continue upstream under the glacial ice. Therefore, Morlighem said, “By having OMG’s measurements close to the ice front, I can tell whether what I thought about the bed topography is correct or not.” Morlighem was pleasantly surprised to discover that 90 percent of the glacier depths he had estimated were within 160 feet (50 meters) of the actual depths recorded by the OMG survey.

[...]

In the second paper, Ian Fenty of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, and coauthors, including Morlighem, tracked water up the west coast to see how it changed as it interacted with hundreds of melting coastal glaciers. They found that in northwest Greenland, cold and fresh water flowing into glacial fjords from the melting surface of the ice sheet is cooling the warmer subsurface water, which circulates clockwise around the island. In one instance, evidence for meltwater-cooled waters was found in fjords 100 miles (160 kilometers) downstream from its source. Fenty noted, “This is the first time we’ve documented glacier meltwater significantly impacting ocean temperatures so far downstream. That shows meltwater can play an important role in determining how much ocean heat ultimately reaches Greenland’s glaciers.”

[...]

Click here to read full article

The two papers are available online:

Improving bed topography mapping of Greenland glaciers using NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) data, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.99

Oceans Melting Greenland: Early Results from NASA’s Ocean-Ice Mission in Greenland, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.100
Quoting 41. RitaEvac:

Mid 60s and sunshine in SE TX


I didn't drive the Camaro with T-tops because it was suppose to be windy today. What happened to wind, RitaEvac? I should have drove the Camaro. :(
So far, in terms of the 2016-2017 Winter season for Conus, I would have expected a few more Gulf lows (which then morph into Nor'Easter's) by this time. However, 4 major issues stick out to me so far this season; a) the copious (and now flooding) long lasting precipitation event for the West Coast/California; b) the bitter cold and mucho snow across the Northern tier of the US; c) the incredibly warm winter for the Southern tier of the US; and d) tornado outbreaks in the South in January and February. Not counting the current heat issues in the Arctic, this is quite a lot to fathom as it is this season.

Please feel free to supplement this list if I have missed any of the major anomalies so far...................
Quoting 42. BayFog:


Front has slowed to nearly stationary over the northern SF Bay Area, possibly signifying a wave forming to the southwest. This will increase the amount of time where rain is falling in any given spot. The satellite image also seems to indicate a secondary front taking shape behind the main front, probably marking the surge that came out of western Canada over the past several days. Snow level in the Sierra remains elevated in the subtropical plume ahead of the front, currently at about 8500 feet in the Central Sierra, and 9500 feet south.


Or, like I said on my g+ share, "Looks like someone's snapping a wet towel at us."

The wind speeds are varying between "Annoying" and "Stupid." At one point while moving pallets around, the sandblasting was starting to hurt so I came inside for a half hour or so to nervously watch the wind trying to take our ShelterLogic greenhouse for a brisk stroll to Lovelock. Greenhouse straps and anchors are holding - but it'll be a lot better once we have the frame bolted down at all 10 vertical points to a railroad tie foundation.

Then the winds backed down to Annoying again, and I went out to move more pallets - and found a nice chunk of cottonwood right there. Hee hee! Missed again!

(NVEnergy/Asplundh did a fantastic job on that tree, but there's only so much you can do to a 75 year old cottonwood that doesn't include taking the damned thing out completely.)
The video clip of this , its Senator "Snowball" on steroids ..........

Link
Quoting 86. BayFog:



1) As far as what comprises the bed rock in the sierra foot hills it really depends on where you are, much of the sierras foot hills actually are granitic, in the area of Lake Oroville it is a bit of a mix. See Below.
Link

2) There is a rock formation within that spur naturally that is more or less impermeable you can see it at the base of the spillway.

3) If you look at the material under the spillway at the failure vs what is at the base of the spillway you will clearly see that is not the local bedrock immediately under the spillway at that location.

4) The slope of that spur is generally around 1 vertical to 5 horizontal /- which is not at all aggressive in fact we design earthen canal levees typically at 1:1.5 with good material and 1:3 with bad material and that material isn't native bedrock, so there is no reason to suspect that spur is in any danger of slipping.
OROVILLE, Calif. (KCRA) —
Thursday marks the third day of engineers and water officials assessing damage and a possible solution for the continued erosion at the Oroville Dam Spillway, but a constant onslaught of rain isn't helping the situation at the lake or the spillway.

The hole, which was initially believed to be 180 feet wide by 250 feet long by 45 feet deep, has likely doubled in size with increased water releases since it was first noticed Tuesday morning, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

As of noon Thursday, Lake Oroville stood at 90 percent of capacity -- 6.5 percent higher than it was Wednesday afternoon -- as water is still being dumped into the reservoir, while a significantly less amount is being let out.

Inflows into the lake are more than 118,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). Compare that to about 35,000 cfs that is being let out of Lake Oroville, DWR officials said. In addition, 13,000 cfs was being let out of the Hyatt Power Plant.

The release of water through the spillway will likely continue to cause damage at the eroded hole, which is about two-thirds down the spillway chute. Crews have set up booms and other devices to catch debris that might flow down into the Feather River.

The spillway has a maximum capacity of 250,000 cfs, but the most that has ever flowed down the chute was about 150,000 cfs in 1997.

As the lake continues to rise, officials are preparing for the possibility of using the ungated emergency spillway just to the north of the normal one, which would release water into uncontrolled land in the valley and the Feather River.

The emergency spillway can be used only once the lake gets to 100 percent capacity or 901 feet in elevation.

Crews are working Thursday to clear out trees and brush below the emergency spillway in case that would need to be used, which would prevent extra debris from flowing into the river.

It would be the first time the spillway has been used in the dam's 48-year history, although the reservoir came within a foot of overflowing into this spillway in January 1997.

DWR spokesperson Eric See said Thursday that officials are still not sure what caused the erosion, but added that there was no indication of a problem when the spillway was used earlier in the year.

The Oroville Dam is not damaged and is "in no way being jeopardized by the (eroding spillway)," See said.
Quoting 105. BayFog:






This is the classic example of a very old phrase -
"Things are going to hell in a hand basket"
Quoting 96. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You have the same join date as Patrap and you let him get 140,000 comments ahead of you? ;)

you can catch up by posting a link to each of his comments, one at a time. I was thinking about doing that myself.

I'm shy.
The Feather River drainage - click to enlarge

Can someone please explain to a layperson in MA what the European is predicting for Monday? Are we talking a winter hurricane or what?
New report from the Climate Council AU:

Cranking Up The Intensity: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events

Climate change is now influencing all extreme weather events – with some of the most severe climate impacts occurring in 2016, our latest report has found.

Cranking Up The Intensity: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events finds that while the links between climate change and some extreme weather events such as bushfires and heatwaves are well-established, the evidence linking climate change to storms and heavy rainfall is also growing.

Read more here

The word "MAY" can please do away with the word, "May" in climate articles it is artifact of the past.
Incredible video by the Butte CO sheriff of the Oroville Spillway!
https://www.facebook.com/bcsonews/videos/77953477 8863469/
Quoting 111. SteveInBoston:

Can someone please explain to a layperson in MA what the European is predicting for Monday? Are we talking a winter hurricane or what?

Interesting stuff! But I'm not the one to explain the nature of this feature, unfortunately. Below the winds at 850mb.






Very shallow warm core, very low pressure (hope I picked up the right storm. This is from UKMET).
Have a safe weather evening and see everyone tomorrow; gonna go home, eat, and watch TWC on the current blizzard in the East and flooding in the West...............................
Quoting 115. civEngineer:

Incredible video by the Butte CO sheriff of the Oroville Spillway!
https://www.facebook.com/bcsonews/videos/77953477 8863469/



Notice all the dead trees in this video. Trees are the brakes , and we need new pads.
Quoting 118. RobertWC:



Notice all the dead trees in this video. Trees are the brakes , and we need new pads.


Trees in the foreground? Look like dormant valley oaks to me, maybe sycamores? hard to say. There would be a mix of evergreen and dormant deciduous trees at that elevation.
Quoting 115. civEngineer:

Incredible video by the Butte CO sheriff of the Oroville Spillway!
https://www.facebook.com/bcsonews/videos/77953477 8863469/



Why is this happening ? Because they are worried about the lake over topping the dam.
Quoting 93. barbamz:

Extreme heat brings health, fire and power cut warnings across south-eastern Australia

[...]

MAPS: A 'horrifying' three-day heatwave hits Australia's east coast today
BI, Paul Colgan, Feb 10, 2017, 4:04 AM


More maps see link above.

Turtle Hatchlings Die As Queensland Sand Temperatures Hit 81°C

The hatchlings are no match for an unprecedented heatwave.



Turtles hatching on Queensland's Mon Repos Beach aren't making it to the ocean as scorching weekend temperatures proved fatal for eggs and hatchlings in unprecedented numbers.

A heatwave hit the region near Bundaberg as turtles were hatching, and scientists recorded sand temperature of up to 81°C.

That's hot enough to kill turtles before they hatch or as they make their way from the nest to the shore.

Department of Environment and Heritage Protection chief scientist Colin Limpus said it was unprecedented.

"We've had hot years but we've never experienced anything like this before," Limpus told HuffPost Australia.

"Large numbers are dying in their nests while they wait for the night to come. Then as they leave their nests, they're dying on the sand before they get to the water.

"Every morning we wake up hoping for rain to cool the beaches down but it doesn't happen. We're into our third week of very elevated temperatures."

Read more here
Quoting 119. civEngineer:



Trees in the foreground? Look like dormant valley oaks to me, maybe sycamores? hard to say. There would be a mix of evergreen and dormant deciduous trees at that elevation.

The U.S. Forest Service has identified an additional 36 million dead trees across California since its last aerial survey in May 2016.
Quoting 111. SteveInBoston:

Can someone please explain to a layperson in MA what the European is predicting for Monday? Are we talking a winter hurricane or what?


Last update it looks like a good size dumping:
Quoting 28. Gearsts:

CaribBoy favorite time of the year.



: (( too early for so much SAL
Trees in the foreground? Look like dormant valley oaks to me, maybe sycamores? hard to say. There would be a mix of evergreen and dormant deciduous trees at that elevation.

Back to the bug lab -


California Oaks Are Dying, and There’s Nothing We Can Do About It


Along the California coast, millions of oaks are bleeding to death, and researchers say there’s nothing we can do to stop it.
There’s little exaggeration there. Several species of oaks native to central and northern California are succumbing to “Sudden Oak Death,” a disease that causes the trees to break out in cankers that literally bleed sap. The pathogen responsible, Phytophthora ramorum, infects oaks through their trunks, and it is unforgiving.


Link

Civil , you may want to read up on , "Forest Collapse" . Those trees are as dead as Julius Ceasar.
Quoting 122. RobertWC:


The U.S. Forest Service has identified an additional 36 million dead trees across California since its last aerial survey in May 2016.



100 Million
Link

Those dead mature trees gone though will probably result in an improvement in root slope stability due to the increase vegetative growth with new light besides which most of the dead trees are still standing with their roots intact maintaining stability. IMO the forest was unhealthy and needed to be thinned for biodiversity.

Side note, a lot of the bark beetle wood is actually really cool looking due to a blue fungus that stains the wood.
Check it out.
Link

128. vis0

div.image_information{ padding:2px; -moz-opacity: 0.9; opacity: 0.9; background-color:#FFFFCC; font-size:14px; font-family:Arial,Verdana; font-weight:normal; font-style:normal; color:#000000; border:1px solid #006600; text-align:left; box-shadow: 0 0 10px rgba(0,0,0,0.5); position:absolute; z-index:999;}
Quoting 64. HurricaneFan:

Not good for Atlantic fans...

Under the historic view looking at data before 2000AD i'd agree though add the you know only 1 is all it takes comment.

Problem is that "1" now can be "2" or "3" and  each devastate. 
Though the rest of the year would have out to deeper sea or flobs (failing blobs) the country will remember the year as devastating as in imagine 2 Andrew like hits somewhere from southern NE to GoMx.

Then the unknown as we could have another 2016 even with a different ENSO combo.

The changing of the atmosphere is like looking at twin planets that have atmospheres and sustain  life yet their atmospheres are going in opposite directions.  One has to figure out how these changes in the atmosphere will change the data that goes into the WxModels/compu'rs and you might use bits of the data for both planets as to the basic science findings but you cannot use the FULL data of one planet to figure out the other planet.


 i was going to say T(S) minus 2669 Hours till blast off (for June 1st) but we could see no TS till Sept then get a superstorm or see a TS in March or have some weird TS drought and the entire east coast go under a drought watch.
Poor MAX when MAX began the wonderful TS count blog it seems like May 31st was a good deadline date for accepting predictions, now we have to include a + or - after each line as to include any TS forming early.
 Never know but odds are more years will see extremes periods be they dry / wet which will not allow all those aching backs in farmland that overworked to recover from flooding then overworked from carrying so much water during droughts.

Lets OB and Learn.


The Climate Coalition, comprised of over 100 U.K. charities and climate-related organizations, has released “A Love Song,” a breathtaking tribute to the planet: Link.

Lakes still embrace shoals of fish
While icebergs melt like snow on lips.
Seasons start to run from each other
While love’s left to shiver on the edge of a leaf.
There’s still time to rescue the tranquility.

Anthony Anaxagorou

Good night, WU fellows!
Quoting 120. RobertWC:



Why is this happening ? Because they are worried about the lake over topping the dam.

If it hasn't even reached the emergency spillway, then there probably isn't much cause for concern. Overtopping the dam? Doubtful.
The Permanent Global Coral Bleaching Event
Despite La Nina, Ocean surfaces have not cooled enough to end the worst global coral bleaching event on record. What this means is that many reefs, including the Great Barrier Reef, are again under a rising risk of bleaching and mortality for the coming months. This is unheard of. Never before has a mass coral bleaching event lasted for so long or extended through the period of natural variability related ocean surface cooling called La Nina. Perhaps more ominously, the global coral bleaching and die off that began in 2014 may now be a practically permanent ocean feature of the presently destabilized world climate system.

Cool La Nina is Over

Link
Is anyone else here looking at the early Sunday into Monday for the Northeast, and Atlantic Canada is those wind values even possible?With any decent snow amount the drifts will be massive, how accurate is this? possible snow cane?
Quoting 125. RobertWC:

Those trees are as dead as Julius Ceasar.


I dunno, the trees susceptible to Sudden Oak Death are coastal species, though they could be black oaks which could get the disease... but black oaks also go dormant in winter so.. hard to know for sure. The north didn't get hit nearly as hard as the central and southern sierras did though with the die off.
Quoting 132. Mikeylikesthesite:

Is anyone else here looking at the early Sunday into Monday for the Northeast, and Atlantic Canada is those wind values even possible?With any decent snow amount the drifts will be massive, how accurate is this? possible snow cane?



Quoting 130. ScottLincoln:


If it hasn't even reached the emergency spillway, then there probably isn't much cause for concern. Overtopping the dam? Doubtful.

Then why are they are doing this ? That is to say releasing so much water.
It's still raining and the runoff is yet to come.

Let's hope that pop off valve , hasn't suffered the same fate.
Quoting 133. civEngineer:


I dunno, the trees susceptible to Sudden Oak Death are coastal species, though they could be black oaks which could get the disease... but black oaks also go dormant in winter so.. hard to know for sure. The north didn't get hit nearly as hard as the central and southern sierras did though with the die off.


Point taken , but if we drill down, it's great time to be a bug , bacteria, or fungus. Not so much to be a tree.
What wind speeds are those in MA on Monday? This looks like a hurricane. Or snowcane. And not a category 1! How is that remotely possible?
Quoting 137. SteveInBoston:

What wind speeds are those in MA on Monday? This looks like a hurricane. Or snowcane. And not a category 1! How is that remotely possible?


It is simply a Nor'easter, which can have hurricane strength wind gusts. This is not that uncommon.
I can't imagine 80s in Anchorage right now.... It's in the 20s during the day... Of course we are getting a blast of cooler air and should be zero in a few days.

Hope that arctic warmth doesn't come this far south. (felt weird typing that out, btw)

Quoting 127. civEngineer:



100 Million
Link

Those dead mature trees gone though will probably result in an improvement in root slope stability due to the increase vegetative growth with new light besides which most of the dead trees are still standing with their roots intact maintaining stability. IMO the forest was unhealthy and needed to be thinned for biodiversity.

Side note, a lot of the bark beetle wood is actually really cool looking due to a blue fungus that stains the wood.
Check it out.
Link




In !976 my friends were making tables from beetle kill at Estes Park. And they made a poor job of it One was arrested in the National Park looking for these trees.

Check it out , when I make a comment, it's not my turnip truck parked in the back 40. I'm just like everyone else here, rich in experience, reading, and tears. I didn't come here to a bug on on your windshields. I came here because these are the most richest , fertile , minds on the web. And I learn every day here. Even if some us learn nothing.
weathergirl2001, I hope that orange gator isn't a Clemson prank--spraypainting an alligator would be cruel.
I just want 60's for the rest of the month because this winter is practically over for us.Only a few winters come back with a late season surprise and this isn't one of them.Every storm that looks promising even in the mid range falls as nothing but rain.
Quoting 127. civEngineer:

Don't tell me about trees . I've been studying them for years. And the trees around the dam are dead. Uphill and Downkill. To place this as some natural cycle is to blunder into blindness. This is a new order. If to think that the collapse of this forest is OK. Is be a fool.

California was designed on the old forest , not this set of bushes you think will be alright. The entire West was designed on the old forest. It is being swept away . All your engineering is being eaten by nature's jump to a new hotter world .

If you think a clump shrubs , slows spring melting like trees of all types. Well then you have that engineer blind spot.
Nature, the greatest engineer has fooled you boys over and over. Because none of you ever study her.

Like that melt down in Japan . It could ever happen . Now all the engineers have no answers , for a world they never dreamed of.

Quoting 143. washingtonian115:

I just want 60's for the rest of the month because this winter is practically over for us.Only a few winters come back with a late season surprise and this isn't one of them.Every storm that looks promising even in the mid range falls as nothing but rain.
When winter wanes rain reigns!
Watching the Oriville inflow and level information. The inflow has really spiked to 188,000 CFS. At that rate some rough math indicates they have 26 hours of space left in the reservoir. Hopefully the inflow starts to fall off quickly.

They said they released 150,000 CFS in 97 which caused real problems downstream. 180,000 CFS uncontrolled going down that hillside and into the river below will not be good
Quoting 107. RobertWC:



This is the classic example of a very old phrase -
"Things are going to hell in a hand basket"
I said, we are going to need a bigger handbasket -- MUCH bigger, it appears..
Monarch butterfly numbers drop by 27 per cent in Mexico

I set aside areas in pastures for milkweed to grow (my horses ignore it), my father always mowed them under but I've let it grow where it is thickest ( removing all burdocks and big thistles with a shovel..ugh! ) for the last few years. I doubt I saw a dozen Monarchs last year... :-(
Quoting 147. BaltimoreBrian:

*whistles innocently* What?

Hmmmmm ;)


I saw that account a few days ago and you were the first thing that came to mind.

Bravo sir.
Quoting 151. gr8lakebreeze:



I saw that account a few days ago and you were the first thing that came to mind.

Bravo sir.



Old English word of the day: ge-lǣstan - to do, perform, accomplish Pronounced ""yeh-last-on"

Some did wonder why my historical posting slowed way down (on my blog) a week ago. But did my historical posting really slow down? :)
Quoting 144. RobertWC:


My sincerest apologies, I was unaware you were an arborist with specific regional knowledge of my area. Can you explain to me how having an over population of a species doesn't lead to disease or famine, or how having two or three mature trees competing for the same water that one tree should have is healthy? Because that is what became of our forests since we started fighting fires and then stopped logging half a century ago in the Golden State, if you'd like I can cite a Department of Fish and Wildlife report specifying the fighting of fires as here as a significant reason for the decline in mule deer in this state due to the reduction of young forage.
More over can you circle all the dead trees in Fog's #105 post cause almost all of them look pretty green to me.
As for the references to my comment total..a lot of it occurred in my FEMA trailer between Dec 05, and Feb 08 when we moved back into NOLA Uptown. Also,the count of Blogs written and publish is 457 entries. Many of those were K related but my interests in others areas are featured as well.

A good bulk also is from rolling severe alerts here for close to a decade.

I look at the past as a tool.

As someone once said, "I don't worry about the past, they do thing's different there."

Hurricane Awareness Tour May 2016, NOLA Lakefront Airport.

Photo Credit. Mrs. P
Quoting 145. RobertWC:

Nature bites the engineers on the ass everyday.



Quoting 150. gr8lakebreeze:

I doubt I saw a dozen Monarchs last year... :-(


saw not a one last summer I watched everyday waiting watchin see if I see one fluttering on by none 3rd year in a row
Quoting 145. RobertWC:

Nature bites the engineers on the ass everyday.



Quoting 138. wartsttocs:



It is simply a Nor'easter, which can have hurricane strength wind gusts. This is not that uncommon.
yep sometimes even stronger lift the sea upon the land
Where are the Monarch's?
Why the Decline?
News | Why the Decline? | How Help | Resources
Monarch Butterfly Population Graph
Historic Records


How you can help monarch butterflies

How You Can Help
January 27, 2015
Population Decline
Monarch numbers are down and people are wondering why. This article examines the factors that contributed to the recent decline, and the downward trend over the past decade.
some new 2017 music


the bees are done soon pat when that occurs its finish in a short time after that
Summer in February in the Arctic: temperatures surge 63°F in 24 hours in Northern Greenland
The temperature at the northernmost land station in the world, Kap Morris Jesup, located on the northern coast of Greenland at 83.65°N latitude, soared to a remarkable 35°F (1.5°C) on Wednesday—beating the previous day’s high of -22°F by a shocking 57°, and marking a temperature more typical of June at this frigid location. The mercury skyrocketed an astonishing 63°F (34.8°C) in just 24 hours, from -29°F at 15 UTC February 7 to 33°F at 15 UTC February 8. As summarized by Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang on February 6, the incredible warmth in the Arctic is due to a massive hurricane-force North Atlantic storm that bottomed out on Monday with a central pressure of 932 mb—a common reading in Category 4 hurricanes, and one of lowest pressures ever measured in a storm in this region. (He noted that the strongest North Atlantic winter storms on record—in December 1986 and January 1993—had pressures of 900 and 916 millibars, respectively.) The warm air flowing into the Arctic this week was reinforced by a second massive extratropical storm that pounded Iceland on Wednesday, which brought sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 91 mph, to the Reykjavik Airport. Warm air near the freezing point—about 50 to 60°F above average in temperature—likely came close to the North Pole on Thursday morning, according to the latest temperature anomaly maps from the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer website. A drifting buoy located near the Pole, at about 87°N latitude, recorded temperatures above freezing once in November 2016 and once in December 2016, but fell short this time, hitting 23°F on Thursday morning. The warm air in the Arctic this week continues a trend of record to near-record heat seen in the Arctic throughout the winter of 2016 - 2017. The warm air has helped bring about the lowest arctic sea ice extent ever recorded during January, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Bob Henson will have a review of Thursday’s Northeast U.S. snowstorm on Friday.

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

The NOLA EF3 Cell came directly over the House here.This image was taking 6 minutes after the lowering funnel touched down 5.6 miles to my East.





Here in the video taken about 12 minutes before that image above. Note the lowering rotation developing as I'm looking due North most of the video,.but notice the darkness when I pan right to the East at the end.

The Misty look toward the flag pole was the Hail shaft approaching. We sought shelter after this was taken.







Haven't been on the blog in a while and was likely already said but was just reviewing The NHC post season reviews and was glad to see they upped Otto to a major just before landfall! Brings our major hurricane total up to 4 last year, was certainty a boisterous end of the season. Glad to see though the deaths remained low with otto in the review considering how much the storm intensified before landfall.
Quoting 147. BaltimoreBrian:

*whistles innocently* What?

Hmmmmm ;)

When I read those tweets I thought of VisO. ; )
test
Quoting 146. BaltimoreBrian:

When winter wanes rain reigns!
At least this time the rain will help us get out of our remaining drought.
Quoting 154. Patrap:

As for the references to my comment total..a lot of it occurred in my FEMA trailer between Dec 05, and Feb 08 when we moved back into NOLA Uptown. Also,the count of Blogs written and publish is 457 entries. Many of those were K related but my interests in others areas are featured as well.

A good bulk also is from rolling severe alerts here for close to a decade.

I look at the past as a tool.

As someone once said, "I don't worry about the past, they do thing's different there."

Pat I meant no harm or offense in my comment about your comment count. I was just putting a light hearted spin on the blog feature that I think everyone liked and will miss, including the membership date. I've been a member since July 2006, lurked in 2005 before joining. I have always enjoyed your comments, especially those with images from movies.
Ones join date and other can be found on the settings page, and I did not take offense to any of the remarks, and thanks for the werds fer sure.

Yaaaah,hooooooooo'........



Delaware Bay effect snow:

So, Will South Florida see a colder winter for the 2017-2018 period? This winter was disappointing, and we had only 1 major cold blast versus 6-7 in 2013 and 2014. 2015 was also okay with 5-6 cold blasts, but this year and 2016 were just horrible for the cold weather and the warmth is prevailing this winter =(
Quoting 168. PedleyCA:

test

Hey, how's it going Ped? How is the drought situation in California now? Heard that it is getting better, and very quickly. On our side in South Florida, drought is prevailing and we have seen little in the form of precipitation so far. South Florida has been placed in abnormally dry conditions , and this has persisted for a while now.
There are no more normals in any sense of the word as the forcings evolving from our continued use of Fossil Fuels to power our Global Societies continues unabated.


January CO2

January 2017: 406.07 ppm

January 2016: 402.64 ppm


Quoting 174. birdsrock2016:


Hey, how's it going Ped? How is the drought situation in California now? Heard that it is getting better, and very quickly. On our side in South Florida, drought is prevailing and we have seen little in the form of precipitation so far. South Florida has been placed in abnormally dry conditions , and this has persisted for a while now.

Still in a drought, just less of one...
Unfortunately, Ped, with El Niño potentially coming back your drought may worsen.

Meanwhile... BLIZZARD watch for me. Anchorage proper should get spared. Brutal driving today. Snow, slippery roads, blowing snow... AFAIK, only one fatal accident - although that's still one too many.
Quoting 178. Dakster:

Unfortunately, Ped, with El Niño potentially coming back your drought may worsen.


Well this is on the edge of a Desert....
Quoting 179. PedleyCA:


Well this is on the edge of a Desert....


True, but if the aquifiers don't fill up like they usually did... you may be without water. Wouldn't that be bad?
Quoting 180. Dakster:



True, but if the aquifiers don't fill up like they usually did... you may be without water. Wouldn't that be bad?

Yes it would...
Quoting 150. gr8lakebreeze:

Monarch butterfly numbers drop by 27 per cent in Mexico

I set aside areas in pastures for milkweed to grow (my horses ignore it), my father always mowed them under but I've let it grow where it is thickest ( removing all burdocks and big thistles with a shovel..ugh! ) for the last few years. I doubt I saw a dozen Monarchs last year... :-(


We have maintained a couple of milkweed plots on our property for many years, and I only saw about half-a-dozen Monarchs last Summer. :-(
Despite possible El Nino, I bet this hurricane season will be more interesting in the N Leewards than last year !!!
So I know I asked for rain... I mean January was dry. Only 11 days of precipitation. Seattle averages 28 days of cloudy, gray skies with a glorious misty rain like environment. I miss the mist. Today it rained. Really rained, like would be considered rain anywhere in the US kind of rain. We've received 2.7 inches since yesterday! (Feb monthly average is 3.9in.) As there was previously a few inches of snow on the ground at sea level, this has some pretty predictable implications. Throw in some strong winds tomorrow, with some more warm rain and melting snow and I suspect a few trees shall meet their demise tomorrow afternoon.

Special Weather Statement (Landslides)
Coastal Flood Advisory
Wind Advisory (For tomorrow)

We're already over the USGS guidance for landslides. A high should build in a give us a break soon. However, as with the pattern this winter, that means the rain shifts south into California...
They were saying on the news the other day that Los Angles has had more rain than Seattle this season...
3-0

: P
Quoting 186. PedleyCA:

They were saying on the news the other day that Los Angles has had more rain than Seattle this season...


I believe it.

Up until last night and today, it has been dry. With all the rain south over OR and Cali, it's been dry, sunny and cold. We've been under cold, clear, Canadian for most of the winter. When it's rained, it's poured (or snowed/freezing rain in the north and at elevation.)

I wish we could spread the rain out. Take the really intense plumes, and just smush it into the ground like play dough on a table. Then everybody out west could have a nice mist. =) No landslides, flooding or drought.

edit - grammar, meh.
Quoting 188. Seattleite:



I believe it.

Up until last night and today, it has been dry. With all the rain south over OR and Cali, it's been dry, sunny and cold. We've been under cold, clear, Canadian for most of the winter. When it's rained, it's poured (or snowed/freezing rain in the north and at elevation.)

I wish we could spread the rain out. Take the really intense plumes, and just smush it into the ground like play dough on a table. Then everybody out west could have a nice mist. =) No landslides, flooding or drought.

edit - grammar, meh.

13.33" here from 10-18-2016 to 2-8-2017 Less than 4 months...
Quoting 172. BaltimoreBrian:

Delaware Bay effect snow:




Now that is cool. One of my professors mentioned this phenomenon before, but this is the first I've seen it.
BOM New South Wales %u200F@BOM_NSW 1h1 hour ago

Hottest February day at #Sydney Airport today reaching 42.9C at 2:24pm, breaking previous record of 42.6C set on 21 Feb 1980. #heatwave
In terms of the status and future of the ENSO

I think this cycle is and will be following similar to 2011 La Niña from late 2010-2011 weakens to neutral from early-mid 2011 and back to La Niña mid-late 2011

The sub-surface temp anomalies profile during this time back in 2011 are pretty much the same with the exception of steeper temp anomalies back in 2011 vs the shallower temp anomalies at present (both had cold pools closer to surface in E pac, both had warm pools deeper down near central pac, and both had cold pools even deeper near the western central pac- W pac. But back in 2011 the gradient of temp anomalies were steeper in both warm and cold pools)

Also looking at the models during this time in 2011 they too showed weakening of the cooler waters to neutral ENSO and in some cases warming towards weak El Niño this started to switch to cooling off and back into La Niña as we started to exit the (SPB) Spring Predictablity Barrier period I do think we may just see the same thing this year once we get closer to passing the (SPB)

This was in yesterday's thread.
Quoting 196. elioe:



Still completely clear sky here, though pressure is falling. It peaked at 1050.3 mbar, now only 1046.7 ;)

What is most evident about climate change in these conditions: temperatures have failed to plunge below -20 C, and every day they have risen above -10 C. This all, despite persistent high pressure, calmness, and the timing (early February). You can almost feel the carbon dioxide radiating back towards ground, preventing significant inversion. And not only that, but the RH has been near 90% during nights. There has to be much wv above surface layer also, meaning even more downward IR.

But this is all going to change, as the high stretches towards Greenland, and a low pressure moves to NW Russia. By Tuesday, Fhn wind may raise temperatures to 8 C.


It has gradually got my skin crawling as what is said here sunk in. It is the pressure readings, there, that got me.
What is actually the case is that this Scandinavian winter high is a hybrid Azores high fully including its weather types. Instead of clear, crisp, -15 to -30 C in Helsinki as would have been the norm for this pattern even up to last year.
Imploded Arctic.
Come in, Sahara.

2011 vs 2017
Quoting 196. wunderkidcayman:




Another stunning moon set this morning. It was almost as orange as an orange and it was huge!!......... I still don't have a good camera :(
199. elioe
Carlos has been an underachiever, when compared to early model runs.
But now models forecast "Dineo" to form in four days or so. Let's see if this system will fulfill models' intensity predictions.

Quoting 198. isothunder67:

Another stunning moon set this morning. It was almost as orange as an orange and it was huge!!......... I still don't have a good camera :(

We have the new kind of steppe air in the Netherlands now. Easterlies that used to be cold, dry, blue skies are now endless drab sunless days with a little frost now rising to outright mild early next week, all the time with transport from the continental east.

Small sorrow at least lifts me for a moment from the end of coral.
Quoting 187. Patrap:

3-0

: P

HRC 0-2
with a possible neutral El Nino, this hurricane season could be very interesting.
Mr. g8drver,

sorry your feathers are ruffled. Stick to the Pontiac creed..."talk less and only when needed"
G8GT+ 460 hp.
Good Morning Folks; it looks like (from the forecast below) that things are going to settle down after this weekend in terms of the cold shots in the North/NE and current precipitation event in the West. Reading between the lines, and noting the numerous references to warmer air and Gulf flow, unless we get some significant cold shots in the longer term, it is possible that Winter might be over this season for the US about one month ahead of normal schedule..When was the last time that you saw a coming "warm front" reference for the NE in early February?......This reads more like a Spring forecast for March/April.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

Valid 12Z Fri Feb 10 2017 - 12Z Sun Feb 12 2017

...Quieter weather returning to the West Coast and a brief cold spell for
the eastern states ...

Much colder weather has settled in across the eastern U.S. in the wake of
the departing nor'easter that resulted in over a foot of snow for parts of
New England. After a very cold start on Friday morning, temperatures are
expected to be below normal for daytime highs before a warming trend
commences in time for the weekend. Another round of snow is likely for
the Northeast U.S. Friday night in advance of the warm front, but not
nearly as heavy compared to the recent event. Showers and a few storms
will be possible from the Deep South to the Ohio Valley this weekend as
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is advected northward around the
departing surface high pressure, and ahead of a cold front. Given the
lack of sufficient wind shear or instability, no severe weather is
anticipated over the next few days.

Across the western U.S., a cold front moving across the Intermountain West
will keep valley rain and mountain snow in the forecast through Saturday
evening. Snow is expected across the higher elevations of the central and
southern Rockies going into Sunday as a new surface low gets better
organized over the Four Corners region. Drier weather will be the rule
for the West Coast beyond Friday night with high pressure building in.






Quoting 201. PensacolaDoug:


HRC 0-2


while we're doing scores, climate change deniers are losing still 97-3
At the end of the day, these very noticable climate shifts, and patterns of very cold shots in the Winter followed by very warm shots in the same season, are related to jet stream variations due to polar amplification/warming in the Arctic. The answer to many of these anomalous events, including extreme precipitation events, across the Northern Hemisphere lies in the Arctic. Here is an article (and excerpt) on this issue from a paper in Nature/Climate from 2013:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n8/full /nclimate1978.html


The jet stream is driven by climate; it is created by the temperature difference between the cold Arctic region and the warmer low latitudes. When there is a large disparity, the jet stream is stronger and faster, meaning it runs straighter. However, the temperature difference has decreased in recent years because the Arctic is warming more rapidly than the rest of the planet, resulting in a weaker and slower jet stream.

The decreased jet stream speed results in large north–south meanders. It is these shifts that produce unseasonal weather patterns over Europe/the Northern Hemisphere. If the jet stream sits to the north it brings the warm weather from the lower latitudes. Conversely, if the jet stream meanders to the south it can bring unsettled weather and colder temperatures.

The WMO report notes that 2010 was not only the warmest year on record, but also the wettest globally. Floods were the most frequent extreme events during 2001–2010, and this trend appears to be continuing; so far this year we have seen significant floods in eastern Australia, central Europe, India and Canada.


Quoting 173. birdsrock2016:

So, Will South Florida see a colder winter for the 2017-2018 period? This winter was disappointing, and we had only 1 major cold blast versus 6-7 in 2013 and 2014. 2015 was also okay with 5-6 cold blasts, but this year and 2016 were just horrible for the cold weather and the warmth is prevailing this winter =(




We might break 50 in two weeks.
And, as we have discussed here for the past several years, while the older article below references 2010 as the hottest modern record warmth year, Arctic, and global warming, has accelerated over the past few years since with the record shattering numbers for 2014, 2015, 2016, and now going into 2017 which has concerned so many; we have entered a period of rapid deterioration in the Arctic.  Here is the period around Christmas in December 2016 and notice the warm spells across the United States that we had in this same time frame:





Does el nio even matter when the whole world is so warm? i.e is there any predictability associated with the past el nios and the next one? Rainfall patterns in California? We will see soon enough.

We're driving from Illinois to Florida next week, but the typical cold weather that we'll be escaping will be in the forties and (gasp) fifties for the next ten days.

Winter is set to end with a whimper, and all those snow plow drivers around here are "losing their shirts". (No money to pay for their trucks and plows) :-(
Quoting 208. weathermanwannabe:

And, as we have discussed here for the past several years, while the older article below references 2010 as the hottest modern record warmth year, Arctic, and global warming, has accelerated over the past few years since with the record shattering numbers for 2014, 2015, 2016, and now going into 2017 which has concerned so many; we have entered a period of rapid deterioration in the Arctic. Here is the period around Christmas in December 2016 and notice the warm spells across the United States that we had in this same time frame:







Yes, the Arctic implosion is happening right now and we are going through the door to a different world.
As of this year winter refreeze of Arctic sea ice is going to be something worthwhile for betting on. This phase will take only a couple of years. I don't know about the models (I do, actually, and I dismiss them for containing too much Gauss) but I think I'll be living in a world with no Arctic sea ice at all before I'm sixty, or even 55. The latter is five years and five weeks from now.
Hmmm.... Don't modify your comment after spelling-out El Niño.
Quoting 205. earthisanocean:



while we're doing scores, climate change deniers are losing still 97-3

And they won 100-0 against the liveability of this planet. Which is the only thing that counts.
Quoting 209. ChiThom:

Does el nino even matter when the whole world is so warm? i.e is there any predictability associated with the past el ninos and the next one? Rainfall patterns in California? We will see soon enough.

We're driving from Illinois to Florida next week, but the typical cold weather that we'll be escaping will be in the forties and (gasp) fifties for the next ten days.

Winter is set to end with a whimper, and all those snow plow drivers around here are "losing their shirts". (No money to pay for their trucks and plows) :-(


It matters in that El Nino results in a release of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere. Predictability is another issue. They already move the baseline for comparison every five years to account for the warming of the oceans due to climate change. Maybe they'll have to make that every 3 years to appropriately account for SSTs due to climate change.
Quoting 162. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the bees are done soon pat when that occurs its finish in a short time after that


The Monarchs and the Bees are the canaries in the coal mine.
So...this is what the NWS Paducah Watch Warning Advisory map looks like right now.



What's missing? Winter alerts.

We've used the following names for Winter Storms

Ahriman (December 17th 2016, Winter Weather Advisory}
Badrukk (January 6th 2017, Winter Weather Advisory)
Calgar (January 13-14th, 2017, Freezing Rain Advisory)

Ahriman and Badrukk were minor. Calgar was Moderate.

Next name on the list: Drogan

At this point, I feel like we're never gonna get to Drogan.

Remember, I only name Winter Storms that prompt a Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Freezing Rain Advisory or Ice Storm Warning for the NWS Paducah CWA.

But hey, on the Bright Side of the Dark Side, at least the Northeast got a Blizzard.

Have you abandoned us, Snow God? What did we do to deserve a lack of snow and ice?








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The Trump administration can’t entirely roll back progress on climate change — here’s why

By Jessica F. Green February 10 at 8:00 AM





Environmentalists are not happy with the Trump administration. There are rumors that Trump might withdraw from the landmark Paris climate agreement on climate change. And Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the former CEO of ExxonMobil, is probably unlikely to champion U.S. environmental priorities in his diplomatic agenda.

Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency pick, Scott Pruitt, is not a fan of environmental regulation and is unlikely to support the Clean Power Plan, Obama’s signature climate policy.

[Trump has picked the most conservative EPA leader since 1981]

U.S. cities are leading the way on climate change policy

Here’s the good news: States, cities and many firms in the United States realize that sensible climate policy is, well, sensible. Having rational policies in place provides important health benefits, such as reducing smog, and helps authorities prepare for climate-induced changes, like floods and droughts. For firms, planning for the future is just good business.

A number of cities around the world have been at the vanguard of climate action. The C40 Cities initiative is a network of more than 80 and represents 600 million people around the globe, including 13 cities in the United States. Their governments are collaborating on climate efforts, and they have committed to mandatory measurement and reporting of emissions and other policy measures. C40’s nifty interactive dashboard provides data on participants’ emissions.

[The world is about to get tough on aviation emissions. Here’s what you need to know.]

Eight US cities also joined the ambitious Carbon Neutral Cities Alliance, where cities pledge to cut emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050.

U.S. cities are also preparing for a changed climate. In the wake of Hurricane Sandy, New York created the Office of Recovery and Resiliency and a plan to minimize impacts of similar storms. Miami just announced a $100 million plan to combat persistent flooding and sea level rise.

Cities’ vulnerability helps explain why urban residents are more likely to support policies to regulate carbon dioxide as a pollutant, and require that utilities source a set percentage of energy from renewable sources.

States are generating demand for clean energy

States also have the autonomy to take action on climate change, with or without a federal mandate. California is continuing its long-standing role as a climate leader. The state’s landmark climate legislation, AB 32, aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, and then 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

AB 32 includes aggressive policies to promote renewable energy, enhance fuel efficiency and increase both the use of low-carbon fuels and the number of zero-emission vehicles. Since 2015, California has linked its cap-and-trade scheme to Quebec, creating the first international carbon market between state governments rather than federal ones.

The California legislature passed the measure, so there is no obvious federal action that could undo this market. And California and other large states may also spur broader action.

Here’s an example of the “California effect.” In the 1980s, California’s fuel-efficiency standards exceeded those set by the federal Clean Air Act. Congress eventually responded by bringing federal rules up to California standards. Because cars sold in California — a large market — had to meet more stringent standards, car manufacturers boosted the efficiency of new vehicles nationwide.

Other states, regardless of their political leanings, are also moving ahead on renewable energy. Texas and 28 others have renewable portfolio standards, which require utilities to sell a certain amount of renewable energy. Another eight have voluntary renewable energy standards.

State laws have helped drive the growth in renewables, which now account for roughly 10 percent of total U.S. energy consumption. Employment in the solar industry is also soaring — and accounted for 1 in 50 new jobs in 2016.

Firms also lead by example on environmental policy

Politicians may wonder whether climate change is happening; CEOs do not. They see climate change as bad for business; droughts, floods and extreme weather events can interrupt supply chains. And regulation can raise production costs. Many firms agree that being prepared for climatic and regulatory changes can help lessen negative impacts.


Others are voluntarily “greening” themselves and improving the bottom line as a bonus. The campaign RE100, for example, has 90 member firms, including 32 U.S. companies, who have pledged to move to 100 percent renewable energy.

In 2014, the global coalition We Mean Business launched an initiative to promote the transition to a low-carbon economy. Almost 700 companies and investors, representing $8 trillion in revenue, have committed to policies like putting a price on carbon, committing to 100 percent renewable power, removing commodity-driven deforestation from supply chains, and reporting climate change information as a fiduciary duty.

[Wondering what’s different about the Paris climate change negotiations?]

In an increasingly global economy, moreover, companies need to adapt to climate regulations and plan for carbon restrictions coming into place in other countries. Just like car manufacturers adjusted to accommodate California’s strict standards, U.S. and other multinational firms are greening their practices to meet environmental laws in other nations.

The fate of the Clean Power Plan

Although pro-climate policies are likely to continue thanks to efforts at the state, national and corporate levels, the fate of Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) is unclear. The CPP is the centerpiece of the U.S. pledge to the Paris agreement, and it aims to reduce emissions from power plants 30 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.

Trump seems keen to repeal the CPP, but regulations are not easily undone. The Supreme Court issued a stay of the CPP in 2015, but if it is upheld, then a rollback will take longer.

The Trump administration could then go back to court to allow EPA to revisit the rule, or it could rescind the rule. As Jody Freeman of Harvard Law School spells out, rescinding the rule would require both a notice and comment period and an explanation of why such a move is necessary. Further litigation would be likely, which would slow efforts to undo the CPP.

More important, many U.S. utilities are moving forward assuming CPP or other regulations will be in place —eventually. Utilities are retiring coal plants and not planning to build new ones. Indeed, the country’s seventh-largest emitter announced that it will probably close this year, because of competition from natural gas.


Coal now supplies only about one-third of the total energy used in U.S. electricity generation, down from about 50 percent in the 1990s. With the majority of U.S. coal plants built before the 1980s, more shutdowns are probable.

The federal government is necessary, but not sufficient

In short, a Trump administration can’t entirely reverse progress on climate change. It may slow things, but the CPP won’t be repealed overnight. And many of the changes underway are simply not subject to federal authority.


The rate of climate change is alarming, and we need to move as quickly as possible to de-carbonize. States and cities continue to take action on climate change. Firms are also leading the way and increasingly urging governments to follow. All of these moves suggest there’s reason to be hopeful that U.S. progress on climate change will continue.

Jessica F. Green (@greenprofgreen) is assistant professor of environmental studies at New York University. She is the author of Rethinking Private Authority, published by Princeton University Press.

Quoting 211. cRRKampen:


Yes, the Arctic implosion is happening right now and we are going through the door to a different world.
As of this year winter refreeze of Arctic sea ice is going to be something worthwhile for betting on. This phase will take only a couple of years. I don't know about the models (I do, actually, and I dismiss them for containing too much Gauss) but I think I'll be living in a world with no Arctic sea ice at all before I'm sixty, or even 55. The latter is five years and five weeks from now.

2017 is potentially the most important year in human history...so far. If we get a 2007 "Perfect Melt" year in the Arctic, the sea ice will vanish almost or perhaps completely. What happens after that probably is best described by Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park.













A home near Chef Menteur Highway is completely destroyed. (Photo by Brett Duke, Nola.com | The Times-Picayune) (BRETT DUKE)

Tuesday's tornadoes by the numbers: Complete figures on injuries, damages

By Laura McKnight, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Follow on Twitter

on February 09, 2017 at 7:33 PM, updated February 09, 2017 at 7:34 PM
The Louisiana Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness released updated numbers Thursday afternoon (Feb. 9) on the damage and emergency response to tornadoes that struck southeastern Louisiana earlier this week.

Though initial reports mentioned at least seven tornadoes touching down Tuesday, the National Weather Service on Thursday amended that count to six tornadoes. Some of the tornadoes had long tracks and turned out to be the same tornado traveling through multiple parishes.

Much of the damage is centered in New Orleans East, where an EF-3 tornado touched down and then traveled for 10.1 miles. That tornado, with a path that reached a maximum of 600 yards wide, injured 33 people, including five to six seriously, and caused moderate to severe damage to more than 600 homes and at least 40 businesses, according to the weather service.

A total of six tornadoes hit Louisiana on Tuesday (Feb. 7), with tracks as long as 23.3 miles and speeds as high as 150 miles per hour

Preliminary Damage Assessment teams are on the ground surveying damaged areas, according to the Governor's Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness (GOHSEP). The teams include staff with FEMA, GOHSEP and the Small Business Administration.

Thursday afternoon, GOHSEP said information gathered by those teams will likely be used in a request for a federal disaster declaration.


Here are figures reported by GOHSEP Thursday:

Injuries reported: 39 injuries have been reported from across the state. No fatalities have been reported as a result of the severe weather.
Injuries treated by New Orleans metro area hospitals: 28
Injuries treated by Baton Rouge area hospitals: 9
Injuries treated by North Shore hospitals: 2
Homes damaged: Nearly 800 homes were damaged in five parishes, according to early assessments.
Orleans Parish damage: 638 houses, 32 apartments, 40 businesses and one school were damaged in an EF-3 tornado that touched down in New Orleans East.

Jefferson Parish damage: intermittent large tree limb and minor roof damage was reported in Old Jefferson, but no homes were majorly impacted. The tornado that hit Jefferson was graded an EF-0, the mildest category on the enhanced Fujita scale.
Livingston Parish damage: 21 homes in the Watson area and five homes in the Killian area. The tornado that struck Watson was graded an EF-3, a severe category on the enhanced Fujita scale. The tornado that hit Killian was graded an EF-2.
St. Tammany Parish damage: Three homes. The tornado that touched down near Killian also affected St. Tammany and Tangipahoa parishes as it traveled a 23.3-mile path.

Tangipahoa Parish damage: Damages were reported, but no homes were impacted.
Ascension Parish damage: 10 homes and two businesses. The tornado that touched down in the Donaldsonville area was graded an EF-1.
St. James Parish damage: 19 homes and one business. St. James Parish was impacted by the EF-1 tornado that touched down in the Donaldsonville area.
Shelter check-in's in New Orleans East: 100 people have checked in to the shelter set up at the Joe W. Brown Recreation Center in New Orleans East.

Meals delivered in Orleans Parish: More than 3,200 meals and snacks had been served by the American Red Cross in Orleans Parish alone, as of Wednesday night. The Red Cross continued to provide hot meals Thursday, in addition to snacks and drinks, to residents and responders in New Orleans East. The meals are available at the Joe W. Brown Recreation Center shelter, as well as via Red Cross vehicles in accessible parts of the tornado-ravaged area.

Red Cross emergency-response vehicles deployed: Five. Across tornado-hit areas of southeastern Louisiana, Red Cross emergency-response vehicles are among the trucks delivering food and drinks, as well as relief items like personal care packages, cleaning supplies and tarps.
Louisiana Army National Guard on duty: 146 National Guard members are on duty in the aftermath of the tornadoes, as of Thursday morning. Guard members are operating 16 security checkpoints.

Each checkpoint has one vehicle and two personnel.
Louisiana State Police support: 10 troopers are helping New Orleans police with traffic control and overnight anti-looting patrols in New Orleans East.

Quoting 211. cRRKampen:


Yes, the Arctic implosion is happening right now and we are going through the door to a different world.
As of this year winter refreeze of Arctic sea ice is going to be something worthwhile for betting on. This phase will take only a couple of years. I don't know about the models (I do, actually, and I dismiss them for containing too much Gauss) but I think I'll be living in a world with no Arctic sea ice at all before I'm sixty, or even 55. The latter is five years and five weeks from now.


I'm curious to see what affect that will have on our climate. As the ice slowly melts distributing its billions of tonnes of weight, combine that with the billions of tonnes of particulates and carbon continually released that arguably is biased to one side of the earth (China/ India/ Russia). I wouldn't doubt this is making the earth like an out of balanced tire in its orbit changing up weather patterns that use to be more or less "stable".
Quoting 220. Lurkindanger:



I'm curious to see what affect that will have on our climate. As the ice slowly melts distributing its billions of tonnes of weight, combine that with the billions of tonnes of particulates and carbon continually released that arguably is biased to one side of the earth (China/ India/ Russia). I wouldn't doubt this is making the earth like an out of balanced tire in its orbit changing up weather patterns that use to be more or less "stable".


Large poleward expansion of desert regime.
Hyperfloods and hyperdroughts in higher latitudes.
General collapse of agriculture with global repercussions fast.
Think about how you would survive in an Aleppo world, because that is the future - not counting with the chimps with nukes, yet (they will bring paradise even sooner than anything else).

Meteorologically it is all already fascinating and utterly unseen. The way what was known as the Icelandic Low now makes Svalbard the new Iceland (and the North Sea the new Azores). The stuck patterns, but also the Atlantic waves that, for the first time ever, travel to Greenland as incipients, develop across the very length of the Inlandsis to emerge as full Atlantic storms at the North Pole taking Siberia as their warm sector... Ugh! But fascinating. I did away with my archival knowledge of northern hemisphere synoptics. It has as much value as knowing how the Neanderthals arranged rocks for burials and stuff like that. Interesting, but history forever.
Quoting 173. birdsrock2016:

So, Will South Florida see a colder winter for the 2017-2018 period? This winter was disappointing, and we had only 1 major cold blast versus 6-7 in 2013 and 2014. 2015 was also okay with 5-6 cold blasts, but this year and 2016 were just horrible for the cold weather and the warmth is prevailing this winter =(
I sure hope not. I moved here for the warmth; if I wanted lingering cold spells, I'd have stayed up north. So I think I speak for millions of winter visitors when I say thanks, but no thanks. We'd be happy if the temperature here never dipped below, say, 60.
Quoting 218. Misanthroptimist:


2017 is potentially the most important year in human history...so far. If we get a 2007 "Perfect Melt" year in the Arctic, the sea ice will vanish almost or perhaps completely. What happens after that probably is best described by Samuel L. Jackson in Jurassic Park.

17 is my number (as someone with nil superstitions I need to set a few random icons for orientation in this world - tongue in cheek, but a few percent seriously).
I hadn't realized there might be some more to it. You could be quite right, this a kind of decider year.
Quoting 221. Applonia39:


Tell it to the Arctic sea ice, Timmy
Quoting 221. Applonia39:

I would like to tell you of my latest book and documentary.
%u2018The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science%u2019.
My latest documentary and video of my presentation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
My website is
Thank you.
Tim
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO08Hhjes_0
www.drtimball.com

Your book and documentary are every bit as nonsensical and utterly lacking in scientific merit as they were the last time you spammed this forum with links to them. Seriously: I think you'll have better luck peddling your brand of anti-science rubbish to the ignorant, non-discerning crowds you'll find at WUWT, Climate Depot, and the like. Let me know if you need the links...
Because of the way that North America is flanked by the North Pacific and North Atlantic, which causes some of the natural jet stream dips (going south on the Pacific side and going north on the Atlantic side), the US is in a "unique" position to feel the effects of global warming/arctic warming. I used to mention for the past several years that my personal poster-child for warming/glacial melt was the North Atlantic "cold pool" off of Greenland to the North of the Gulf Stream.  However, looking at the weather patterns across the US this particular Winter, Conus itself might become my new poster child.



 
Quoting 222. cRRKampen:


Large poleward expansion of desert regime.
Hyperfloods and hyperdroughts in higher latitudes.
General collapse of agriculture with global repercussions fast.
Think about how you would survive in an Aleppo world, because that is the future - not counting with the chimps with nukes, yet (they will bring paradise even sooner than anything else).

Meteorologically it is all already fascinating and utterly unseen. The way what was known as the Icelandic Low now makes Svalbard the new Iceland (and the North Sea the new Azores). The stuck patterns, but also the Atlantic waves that, for the first time ever, travel to Greenland as incipients, develop across the very length of the Inlandsis to emerge as full Atlantic storms at the North Pole taking Siberia as their warm sector... Ugh! But fascinating. I did away with my archival knowledge of northern hemisphere synoptics. It has as much value as knowing how the Neanderthals arranged rocks for burials and stuff like that. Interesting, but history forever.

Speaking of Svalbard, here's what it looked like there yesterday:



For those who need background on Svalbard: " Svalbard is the northernmost settlement in the world with a permanent civilian population." Link
To add something to the good weekend mood ;-)

Coastal Cities Could Flood Three Times a Week by 2045
Climate Central, Published: February 9th, 2017
The lawns of homes purchased this year in vast swaths of coastal America could regularly be underwater before the mortgage has even been paid off, with new research showing high tide flooding could become nearly incessant in places within 30 years.
Such floods could occur several times a week on average by 2045 along the mid-Atlantic coastline, where seas have been rising faster than nearly anywhere else, and where lands are sagging under the weight of geological changes. ...


Until they fix the "1969" join date downstream in time, we cannot determine if someone just joined the Blog recently just to post as a troll; until, then this one is for Aplonia:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/nov/ 22/extraordinarily-hot-arctic-temperatures-alarm-s cientists

The Arctic is experiencing extraordinarily hot sea surface and air temperatures, which are stopping ice forming and could lead to record lows of sea ice at the north pole next year, according to scientists.

Danish and US researchers monitoring satellites and Arctic weather stations are surprised and alarmed by air temperatures peaking at what they say is an unheard-of 20C higher than normal for the time of year. In addition, sea temperatures averaging nearly 4C higher than usual in October and November.

It's been about 20C warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean, along with cold anomalies of about the same magnitude over north-central Asia. This is unprecedented for November, said research professor Jennifer Francis of Rutgers university.

Temperatures have been only a few degrees above freezing when -25C should be expected, according to Francis. These temperatures are literally off the charts for where they should be at this time of year. It is pretty shocking. The Arctic has been breaking records all year. It is exciting but also scary, she said.

Quoting 221. Applonia39:



I though such behavior was a violation of the rules for the road?
Car-los.

Quoting 221. Applonia39:

I would like to tell you of my latest book and documentary.
%u2018The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science%u2019.
My latest documentary and video of my presentation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
My website is
Thank you.
Tim
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPzpPXuASY8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sO08Hhjes_0
www.drtimball.com



Dr. Tim Ball? The same Dr. Tim Ball that had a 4 hour psuedo-science show on "Coast to Coast AM Radio" a few years ago? No phone calls by listeners were allowed so that you could cast your psuedo-science garbage onto the show's listeners without being challenged on the garbage that you spewed out of your mouth. Perhaps you might remember me. Shortly after the show I emailed you and called you a COWARD for not taking any phone calls during that broadcast. I also called you out as being a COWARD in the comments section of one of your OP-ED pieces a few months back. You never replied to my email to you and you never came back to address my calling you a COWARD in the comments section. Should you have such a belief that your psuedo-science nonsense is correct then quit being a COWARD and allow others to address you and for you to respond.

Should I draw a ban for this comment, then so be it. It is worth it to call this scumbag out onto the carpet for his cowardly ways and for his psuedo-science OP-ED pieces of trash.
Quoting 231. daddyjames:



I though such behavior was a violation of the rules for the road?
only if its a spam like approach small one time referrals are fine but no spammy whammy repeat stuff
I kinda like let it show what it really is
we know the difference
we know what has happen is different
we know what's yet to happen will be different
but I kinda like leaving them
so they look as foolish
as they are
We might try explaining the current issue in a more simple form that a 2-year old could understand; "Honey, in about 50 years, Santa Claus is going to be wearing shorts with his boots"...............................
Quoting 216. 62901IL:

At this point, I feel like we're never gonna get to Drogan.

Remember, I only name Winter Storms that prompt a Winter Weather Advisory, Winter Storm Watch, Winter Storm Warning, Freezing Rain Advisory or Ice Storm Warning for the NWS Paducah CWA.

But hey, on the Bright Side of the Dark Side, at least the Northeast got a Blizzard.

Have you abandoned us, Snow God? What did we do to deserve a lack of snow and ice?


We've been doing the patented New Englander Snow Dance for the last 2 years up here, it had to pay off at some point!
Crazy wind storm north of Denver. Near me, Vance Brand Airport had winds west at 44 gusting to 74. Saw an old barn that blew over up the road. A tree is down across the road from me and my 4 burner grill blew over (the burner cracked so I think its dead). A few trucks blew over on I-25 and I just saw that Denver International issued a ground stop due to high winds. There are also two grass fires west of Longmont with 125 home evacuated.

The crazy thing is that while there is a high wind warning in the foothills there is no high wind warning at my location. I have seen many high wind events in my area, with warnings issued, and this is worse than most. Don’t normally complain about NWS, they generally do a great job, but how have they not issued a high wind warning?
Chimps with nukes?

I don't think it's the chimps we hafta worry about.

I think it's that orange-haired orangutan we need to keep an eye on.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Was this a Piteraq (katabatic wind) at Kap Morris Jessup? Winds gusts were up to 66 kmh from the south. Common for temperatures to increase over 30C during foehn or katabatic (depending on who is interpreting the phenomenon) wind events in the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica during the winter.
If you see FEMA anywhere, send them to Louisiana.

Thanks.

246.
Guess this should tell us to stop referring to hurricanes in the limited way we do. They should apply to ANY storm that has hurricane like conditions. While I do not approve of weather.com's way of naming storms, believing that should be a NHC and NOAA decision, those same organizations should evolve and start referring to any extratopical storm that meets hurricane standards on winds, pressure, moisture, rotation, and moisture (snow, rain, etc).

If we did that, then perhaps when extratopical storms make a beeline for us in the Pacific Northwest (which happens more than you might realize) we would pay as much attention as Southerners/East Coasters do to hurricanes.