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The Cure for Catastrophe: How We Can Stop Manufacturing Natural Disasters

By: Jeff Masters 5:40 PM GMT on February 07, 2017

In his excellent new book, The Cure for Catastrophe: How We Can Stop Manufacturing Natural Disasters, Robert Muir-Wood presents a fascinating expert guided tour of the history of catastrophes and how humans have responded to them. Robert Muir-Wood is the chief research officer of the catastrophe risk modeling company Risk Management Solutions, and a visiting professor at University College London’s Institute for Risk and Disaster Reduction. He recounts disasters of the past two thousand years, touching on such stories as the destruction of Pompeii by Vesuvius in 79 A.D., the great earthquake in Lisbon in 1755, the Mississippi River flood of 1927, the 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami, and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. His treatment of the birth of the insurance industry in the 1800s in response to fires in London is particularly interesting.

Muir-Wood emphasizes that we need to develop better disaster policy and disaster culture, and make awareness of disaster risks more a part of our culture through story telling, like the analogy of The Three Little Pigs. He advocates that societies undergo regular “risk audits”, where the 1-in-10 year and 1-in-100 year odds of loss of life, livelihoods, and money are evaluated, and where “reliance brokers” identify the most cost-effective ways to reduce those risks. He also stresses the need to fund disaster reduction and preparedness, which can reduce disaster costs by a factor of fifteen compared to the money spent.

A few interesting highlights from the book:

- “The irony of a catastrophe is the funds to prevent it only become available after it has happened.” The U.S. government funded a $14.5 billion upgrade to New Orleans’ flood protection system in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and the city is now protected against a 1-in-100 year Category 3 storm (one that has a 1% chance of occurring in a given year.) But New Orleans needs protection against a Category 5 storm, currently deemed to be a 1-in-500 year event (a 0.2% chance of occurring in any given year.) The Army Corps claimed this would cost at least $70 billion, and it was not funded. With climate change expected to make the strongest storms stronger and cause sea level rise to accelerate, the odds of a Category 5 storm surge 6 - 10 feet higher than Katrina’s may increase to a 1-in-130 year event by the year 2100.

- “Mobile homes have proved to be ‘houses of straw’ in tornadoes.” From 1985 - 1995, more than 60% of all tornado deaths in U.S. homes were people living in mobile homes, where only 6% of the U.S. population lived.

- “It’s not the earthquake that kills you, it’s the builders…It all comes down to bad design, bad execution, bad reinforcing, and bad concrete.” Muir-Wood lauds the construction in earthquake-prone Chile, where earthquake preparedness is a national passion and building codes against earthquakes are some of the world’s best. Developers hold a ten year liability for building damage, with the threat of a jail term. The 2010 magnitude 8.8 earthquake in Chile was 1,000 times bigger than the smaller 2009 L’Aquila earthquake in Italy, but killed fewer people in building collapses. He advocates that every public school in an earthquake zone should post the annual number of expected deaths in that building due to the details of school construction, time children spend in school, and earthquake frequency. That would motivate retrofitting of construction in earthquake zones!

- “The irony of a flood wall is that it can make us less resilient…The flood wall lures new buildings to shelter behind it.” The higher the wall, the deeper flood. A flood on Japan’s Shonai River after 24” of rainfall in September 2000 inundated 70,000 buildings and 100,000 cars after a single section of the river’s 16’ flood wall collapsed.

- The U.S. passed legislation in 2012 (the Biggert-Waters Act) to reform the National Flood Insurance Program and make people living near the coast pay more of the true costs of flood damage. However, after insurance rates rose by a factor of four or more for some coastal residents, the outcry led Congress to repeal the act in 2014. “National funds would continue to be used to subsidize people who wanted to live in the beach.”

- “U.S. disaster relief per citizen was twenty times more than spending on disaster reduction. Each dollar of extra preparedness spending reduced disaster impacts by an average of $7 over a single four-year election cycle and disaster costs overall by an average of $15. With multiples of this magnitude, a politician should clearly invest in disaster reduction. The problem is that money spent on preparedness wins no votes.”

My only complaint about the book is that Muir-Wood does not present an organized set of conclusions identifying the problems and potential solutions. One has to hunt around to piece together what he is advocating. The Cure for Catastrophe (published in September 2016) is $23.14 from Amazon.com. I give the book four stars our of five.

Jeff Masters

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1141 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN FRANCISCO CA - KMTR 933 AM PST TUE FEB 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 1133 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1127 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1059 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1058 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1055 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1052 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1043 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
Thanks Dr. for the Update.  While I will read it more carefully later in light of the current tornado threat along the Gulf coast, I could make one suggestion on the related disaster prevention..................Make temporary/short-term evacuation (through local regulations and/or ordinances) from a mobile park or mobile home without an on-site safe space/shelter mandatory (to a designated safe space or friend/relatives home) if a tornado watch is issued for your area......................................

today Filtered Reports Graphic
In Southeast Louisiana do NOT let your guard down as new strong Storms are forming to our West and South. These cells have the potential for heavy rain, flash flooding and Gusty winds.

like all ways there Tornados happening right now and the only thing dr m talks about is a book


i was thinking he would do a blog update on the tornado thats happening today
The Entergy Twitter shows the outage in the East and the track most likely.

Entergy Map.outages







U7 bears watching CLOSELY.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

LAC095-071800-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-170207T1800Z/
St. John The Baptist LA-
1146 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FOR ST. JOHN
THE BAPTIST PARISH...

At 1145 AM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Reserve, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Reserve, Laplace, Garyville, Edgard, Wallace, Montz and Killona.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Motorists should not take shelter under highway overpasses. If you
cannot safely drive away from the tornado, as a last resort, either
park your vehicle and stay put, or abandon your vehicle and lie down
in a low lying area and protect yourself from flying debris.

If a tornado or other severe weather is spotted, report it to the
National Weather Service or your local nearest law enforcement agency
who will send your report. This act may save lives of others in the
path of dangerous weather.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9066 3009 9067 3010 9065 3022 9063
3021 9060 3024 9056 3020 9055 3020 9050
3025 9045 3027 9036 3021 9036 3018 9039
3006 9038 3008 9041 3003 9045 3002 9053
3004 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 262DEG 34KT 3014 9058

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN
Thanks for the Review Dr. Masters...
Quoting 8. thetwilightzone:

like all ways there Tornados happening right now and the only thing dr m talks about is a book


i was thinking he would do a blog update on the tornado thats happening today


This event popped up rather quickly over the past 3 hours catching many folks off-guard as noted by Pat earlier......Don't think that this was picked up very well by models overnight and in the very early am today
855  
WFUS54 KLIX 071756  
TORLIX  
LAC063-091-105-071830-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0043.170207T1756Z-170207T1830Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1156 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
WEST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST  
 
* AT 1156 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WATSON, OR 12 MILES  
NORTHEAST OF DENHAM SPRINGS, MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
MONTPELIER AROUND 1220 PM CST.  
AMITE, INDEPENDENCE AND NATALBANY AROUND 1230 PM CST.  
 
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE  
TICKFAW.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A  
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3075 9045 3048 9046 3057 9092 3065 9091  
3065 9090 3067 9089 3069 9087 3069 9086  
3070 9086  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 271DEG 29KT 3063 9085  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
32  
 
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The Nexlab LA Page

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Metairie, Jefferson, and others incoming cell. TAKE COVER NOW


We Gone'


65  
WFUS54 KLIX 071759  
TORLIX  
LAC051-071-075-087-089-071830-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0044.170207T1759Z-170207T1830Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1159 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
WEST CENTRAL ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
EAST CENTRAL ST. CHARLES PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 1230 PM CST  
 
* AT 1158 AM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LULING, OR NEAR AVONDALE, MOVING EAST AT  
35 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
NEW ORLEANS, HARVEY, CHALMETTE, AVONDALE, EAST NEW ORLEANS,  
MARRERO, TIMBERLANE, BELLE CHASSE, METAIRIE, JEFFERSON, GRETNA,  
HARAHAN, WESTWEGO, ESTELLE, MERAUX, ARABI, WOODMERE, POYDRAS,  
BRIDGE CITY AND ELMWOOD.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR IN  
A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU  
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO, AS A LAST RESORT, EITHER  
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT, OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN  
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2981 9031 2990 9034 3007 8993 2981 8985  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 255DEG 30KT 2986 9028  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
32  
 
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The Nexlab LA Page

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Main Text Page

Take cover Westwego, Marrero, Harvey, Gretna!
I've been listening to NOPD online. God bless them - they've got their hands full in NO East.

Has anyone heard/seen anything from the North Shore?
Uptown and the Irish Channel be aware!

The Nado is in Marrero moving Ne at 35

Quoting 14. weathermanwannabe:



This event popped up rather quickly over the past 3 hours catching many folks off-guard as noted by Pat earlier......Don't think that this was picked up very well by models overnight and in the very early am today


It appears that Tornado Warnings were issued for the New Orleans area before a Tornado Watch had even been issued. Tornado Watch was issued at 7:55 am (CST).
The first Tornado Warning was issued at 7:35 am (CST).
Another Tornado Warning was issued at 7:45 am (CST).


44  
WFUS54 KLIX 071823  
TORLIX  
LAC071-087-071900-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0045.170207T1823Z-170207T1900Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1223 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL ORLEANS PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. BERNARD PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CST  
 
* AT 1223 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER CHALMETTE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
NEW ORLEANS, CHALMETTE, BELLE CHASSE, GRETNA, VIOLET, MERAUX,  
ARABI, POYDRAS AND TERRYTOWN.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR IN  
A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU  
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO, AS A LAST RESORT, EITHER  
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT, OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN  
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2987 8992 2989 8993 2990 8996 2990 8999  
2989 8999 2990 9001 2994 9006 2998 9006  
3007 8966 3004 8969 3000 8970 3001 8980  
2998 8981 2998 8971 2995 8968 2992 8970  
2989 8965 2990 8963 2997 8961 2981 8960  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 266DEG 28KT 2993 8999  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
32  
 
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All Local schools in the watch and warned areas are all under Shelter Protocol for Tornado Orders.
102  
WFUS54 KLIX 071825  
TORLIX  
LAC063-091-105-071900-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0046.170207T1825Z-170207T1900Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1225 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 100 PM CST  
 
* AT 1224 PM CST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR  
MONTPELIER, OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMITE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
AMITE CITY, INDEPENDENCE, MONTPELIER, NATALBANY AND TICKFAW.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TO REPEAT, A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A  
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY  
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN  
A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU  
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO, AS A LAST RESORT, EITHER  
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT, OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN  
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3077 9026 3075 9027 3074 9026 3071 9026  
3070 9025 3067 9025 3065 9024 3063 9025  
3060 9024 3052 9025 3057 9065 3069 9066  
3078 9028  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 266DEG 27KT 3064 9059  
 
TORNADO...OBSERVED  
HAIL...1.00IN  
 
 
 
32  
 
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College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1225 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1223 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING SAN FRANCISCO CA - KMTR 1022 AM PST TUE FEB 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1218 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1159 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NEW ORLEANS LA - KLIX 1156 AM CST TUE FEB 7 2017
Those of you in LA keep your heads down. Stay safe.

Picture of New Orleans East Tornado.
TWC is (has been) showing a video loop of a large tornado that passed through the New Orleans area.
Mayor Mitch Landrieu LIVE, dozens of minor injuries, 2 serious as of now.




Wow, unbelievable....

Also a picture apparently from the NASA Michoud Assembly Facility

Extensive Damage in NOLA east..B roll is heartbreaking as most there lost all in K and rebuilt. We gonna need some werds to Higher powers for some hundreds of folks, if not thousands
Houses destroyed in New Orleans east
NWS asking those with Hail damage to windshields to report in as to the assessment beginning already, via twitter.

The Hail Core tracking helps a lot.
Quoting 43. washingaway:

Houses destroyed in New Orleans east


U saw dat WWL B roll just now Im gathering?
Quoting 45. Patrap:



U saw dat WWL B roll just now Im gathering?

No, I was watching WDSU, have been flipping through the channels though.
Quoting 47. Patrap:

From NASA Michoud, NOLA East, Powerul Tornado Raw B-roll


That looks to be an easy EF3 maybe even an EF4.



838  
WFUS54 KLIX 071857  
TORLIX  
LAC103-105-117-071930-  
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0047.170207T1857Z-170207T1930Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
1257 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
EAST CENTRAL TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
NORTHWESTERN ST. TAMMANY PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON PARISH IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...  
 
* UNTIL 130 PM CST  
 
* AT 1257 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR INDEPENDENCE, OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
AMITE, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
FOLSOM AND ENON.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A  
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER  
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.  
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN  
NEW ORLEANS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3059 9047 3070 9047 3079 9003 3052 9001  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 266DEG 28KT 3064 9040  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...2.00IN  
 
 
 
32  
 
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New Orleans East

Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017

Areas affected...southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 26...

Valid 071856Z - 072000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 26 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado watch 26 is scheduled to expire at 20Z. However,
storms will probably not have cleared the southeast portion of the
WW by that time. A local 2 hour extension in time may be necessary
for that portion of the WW to cover remaining threat.

DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells persist over southeast LA
into the MS bootheel and are moving east at around 30 kt. While the
atmosphere upstream remains quite unstable, winds are veering and
subsidence drying aloft in wake of shortwave trough will likely
limit additional development west of ongoing storms. This suggests
the primary tornado threat should remain confined to a small area
across southeast LA into southeast MS next few hours before storms
move into WW 27. Farther north across south central to central MS
where the boundary layer is less unstable, primary threat appears to
be damaging wind and large hail, but a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

..Dial.. 02/07/2017

I'd love to see a map of SE LA that shows all the tornado-warned areas today. It seems every major city and town was covered at some point.
Quoting 42. Patrap:

Extensive Damage in NOLA east..B roll is heartbreaking as most there lost all in K and rebuilt. We gonna need some werds to Higher powers for some hundreds of folks, if not thousands
Prayers up.
Tornado Watch extended to 5 pm in Se Louisiana.

STAY ALERT
CNN website nothing but politics, no mention about tornadoes in NOLA.

Media really is low scale un-honest bunch of people
Haven't seen any aerial video yet, but assume we will soon as the threat passes.
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 26

VALID 071920Z - 072000Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W HUM TO
35 W JAN.

PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION WW 26 WILL BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN
TIME, PRIOR TO PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED 20Z EXPIRATION.

..KERR..02/07/17

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...MOB...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WT 26

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

LAC051-057-071-075-087-089-095-103-105-109-117-07 2000-

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA
TERREBONNE WASHINGTON
$$


MSC023-029-031-035-039-041-045-047-049-0
Mayor Mitch Landrieu in New Orleans East last Hour

Linda Pierre, left, and April Williams look around the east New Orleans neighborhood after a Tornado struck this morning


(Photo: Paul Murphy/WWL)
Quoting 63. LAbonbon:

CNN-Tornadoes


No where to be found on front page
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
136 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

ALC101-072000-
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-170207T2000Z/
Montgomery AL-
136 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTY...

At 135 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Pike Road, or 10 miles southeast of Montgomery,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Montgomery, Pike Road and Cecil.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3221 8619 3228 8620 3236 8599 3234 8599
3233 8597 3232 8596 3230 8595 3228 8592
3227 8599 3225 8599 3225 8600 3222 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 256DEG 28KT 3224 8616

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

32/Davis
dangerous storms today ..stay alert and safe thruout the deep south today and tonight.
Quoting 70. Patrap:




It's booming and lighting up the sky in Ocean Springs/Biloxi! Everyone stay safe!
The NOLA East Sherwood Forest Area was hard hit.


Quoting 31. MaxWeather:

Remember me? :)


Where have you been? Are you doing the "Who can accurately guess the season totals?" game again this year?

IT was a brisk +3F out this morning, freezing fog. Luckily, it's mostly lifted out and is bright, sunny and a hot +15F out now.
Night will be coming in 4 hours so many neighborhoods will be without Power tonight.

Make sure if you can to help in the areas Hit. DO NOT go into NOLA East unless a EMS,or other incident agency.
I've seen a video from out of New Orleans east.Wow l bet some people are having flashbacks to Katrina down there today.
This is really bad; as noted this morning, please advise friends or family that you have that live in mobile homes to consider going over to a friend or family member's house this afternoon/evening if they are in the path of the coming front once a tornado watch is issued; you should make these arrangements now and be ready to drive over if conditions warrant................I would rather be safe then sorry.

today Reports Graphic



Quoting 66. RitaEvac:



No where to be found on front page


I couldn't find it either. I looked all over their home page and couldn't find anything about the tornadoes? If it's there, its hiding some where.
Quoting 74. Patrap:

Night will be coming in 4 hours so many neighborhoods will be without Power tonight.

Make sure if you can to help in the areas Hit. DO NOT go into NOLA East unless a EMS,or other incident agency.

Officials have shut down access to much of New Orleans east. Entergy is working to make sure down power lines are not hot. From what I have seen many will be without power for weeks.
Quoting 77. Sfloridacat5:



I couldn't find it either. I looked all over their home page and couldn't find anything about the tornadoes? If it's there, its hiding some where.

CNN posted this over an hour ago:
http://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2017/02/07/torn ado-touches-down-in-new-orleans-area-gray-sot-wolf .cnn
Quoting 59. RitaEvac:

CNN website nothing but politics, no mention about tornadoes in NOLA.

Media really is low scale un-honest bunch of people


BBC has a report:
Link
Quoting 63. LAbonbon:

CNN-Tornadoes

LAbonbon, you were on top of this from the start on Dr. Masters previous entry. Great job!
Addition to the topic of the previous blog:
Afghan avalanches: Frantic bid to find buried survivors
BBC, 5 hours ago
Frantic efforts to rescue hundreds of people feared buried under snow in northern Afghanistan are continuing with villagers using whatever digging means available to find survivors. ...


People in remote areas have had to use any means available in the hunt for survivors. Photo AFP.

Stay safe everyone. Best wishes to those affected by the avalanches, to NOLA and everyone else experiencing damage, death and threat ...
Quoting 81. washingaway:


LAbonbon, you were on top of this from the start on Dr. Masters previous entry. Great job!

Aw, shucks. Thanks, washingaway. But honestly, it was really a matter of timing. If I'd done my 'morning blog & NWS quick check' even a half hour or so earlier, I would have missed it.
WDSU has aerial footage
Any fatalities from today's tornadoes?
Quoting 85. weathergirl2001:

Any fatalities from today's tornadoes?

None have been reported, 25-30 were injured.
Thanks washingaway.
Heading out with the Band as they have their Tuesday Night House of Blues,Voodoo Garden Gig 6-9.

Stay safe.
The complaint by the book author that flood insurance subsidizes rich people who live along the coast isn't the completely story here in Florida. Most residents and businesses in this state are near a coast and subsequently over one third of all NFIP policies are held here: http://bsa.nfipstat.fema.gov/reports/1011.htm
The real problem I recall was that Biggert-Waters painted flood risk and rate increases with too broad a brush. I live 12 miles inland of the coast within a city with excellent flood protection and the new risk maps didn't accurately reflect this fact. As evidence, during Tropical Storm Isaac in 2012 there was considerable flooding around my city from 12-18" of rainfall, but none within my town. So, some of the outcry that lead to its repeal was legitimate.
I have not seen any tornado warnings go up over the last hour from watching the regional radar loops for the Gulf and SE and can report that the air out ahead of the main Gulf squall line, now going through the Florida Panhandle, in the Big Bend region is a lot cooler at the moment under the overcast that has been in place for the past hour or so as well. Hopefully, that rain cooled air, and shield blocking out the sun, will keep the instability down on the way East through Alabama now. Unfortunately for our friends in LA, they got the worst of it today as the jet coincided over their region with the available heating from the sun. However, there currently around six severe t-storm warnings spread around on the map for the stronger cells still rotating through MS/AL/Florida Panhandle/and Western GA..... Stay Safe.
Also hoping and praying that we do not get any tornadoes, or watches for that matter, in the Albany, GA area later today that was so hard hit two weeks ago much like the damage today in LA; the Albany area damage was from one big long-track tornado that devastated one section of Hwy 84 and one entire residential neighborhood south of the highway. The current damage being reported from LA is from multiple tornadoes and much more wide spread. I am certain that emergency help will be on the way, if not already, to help the affected residents and for power restoration.

Keep us posted Patrick on your situation and in the State.
Quoting 85. weathergirl2001:

Any fatalities from today's tornadoes?


No fatalities that I can see reported yet on the SPC site but they are reporting 27 injuries between the Livingston (2) and Donaldsonville (25) tornadoes; Donaldsonville was really hard hit.
Matt Sledge:
‏@mgsledge

JBE says 7 touchdowns, about 20 injuries reported in state. Not sure if injuries number includes New Orleans.

General Curtis of National Guard says soldiers will be here to support NOPD/to "prevent any looting"

One tornado warning just went up in Central LA from a small cell:

Matt Sledge:
‏@mgsledge

City spokesman says 25 injuries in New Orleans, 3 of those serious
Tornado watches sliding slowly to the East into Alabama now and the Western FL Panhandle:

Valid WW Image


Here is the most current chart (aviation) I can find on the jet pending the GFS update later this afternoon:

Aviation Image

Quoting 79. washingaway:


CNN posted this over an hour ago:
http://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2017/02/07/torn ado-touches-down-in-new-orleans-area-gray-sot-wolf .cnn


Yes, I saw this from the earlier comment. It's on their "Live TV."
But for some reason, I couldn't find anything about it on their home page earlier.

Quoting 102. Xandra:

Matt Sledge:
‏@mgsledge

JBE says 7 touchdowns, about 20 injuries reported in state. Not sure if injuries number includes New Orleans.

General Curtis of National Guard says soldiers will be here to support NOPD/to "prevent any looting"


I hate looters!
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
416 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

MSC123-072300-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0029.000000T0000Z-170207T2300Z/
Scott MS-
416 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR EAST
CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY
...

At 416 PM CST, a confirmed tornado was located near Forest, moving
southeast at 25 mph
.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
east central Scott County, including the following locations: Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3240 8950 3247 8945 3244 8932 3223 8932
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 299DEG 24KT 3242 8946

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN
Happy to hear no fatalities at this point, hope it stays that way, had enough in Jan. Hope the worst is over, stay safe down there!

We stuck around 61-63 most of the morning & early afternoon in S C IL, but as cloud cover you can see in 101) moved over and winds become more westerly, now NW, temps began dropping quickly, around 5 degrees in last hour to 56. 25 more to go by tomorrow morning, & high only 32. Back to 62 by Sat. though. Yo-Yo effect keeps going, though further out in 10 day looks slightly more stable. Also, we go past 10.5 hrs of sunlight (yay!) as head into snow moon weekend.
FEMA Region 6:
@FEMARegion6

If you were affected by the tornadoes around the New Orleans area, follow these tips.

crazy video of a guy driving parallel to a tornado as it pulls things into it

Link
WWL-TV:
‏@WWLTV

Entergy says they have found 54 gas leaks in N.O. East area hit by tornado.

May I recommend this as a follow-up to the blog post? This is my review on Amazon, 4 out of 5.

The Culture of Calamity: Disaster and the Making of Modern America
by Kevin Rozario

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful

This is re-drafting of Dr Rozario's PhD thesis, he tells us. As such it strives to be complete and there is more here than I expected. In fact it is subversive. Cool!

The author draws a line that seems unlikely at first. He tracks the growth of our emergency management system from the colonial days through the San Francisco earthquake and fire, to 9-11 and Katrina. An important stop along the way is the period immediately after WWII when our civil defense requirements suddenly mushroomed, heh.

He shows that with each disaster, new powers were assumed by the central government. At first, state authorities were reluctant even to accept federal assistance because of the strings attached. Sometimes they had good reason, just look at the 1927 flood: In the delta region they were conscripting black labor and keeping them on the levees at gunpoint. Who wants government agents poking around in situations like that?

Gradually the national government has taken over disaster planning. A big part of it stems from the civil defense requirements first of the cold war and now of the war on terror. With these responsibilities has come authority. The president has the power to declare an emergency, suspend the government and rule by executive authority. He has the apparatus in the Dept of Homeland Security and the Patriot Act, etc.

In other words we have sacrificed a great deal of our freedom for the sake of security. Unfortunately, 9-11 and Katrina showed that this security is sort of thin and not to be relied upon. Katrina gave the impression that there were too few lifeboats and the people in charge didn't know what they're doing -- New Orleans went down like the Titanic.

Past disasters have paved the way for this fiasco and future disasters will probably make it worse. In other words I am now a believer in Dr Rozario's thesis. He has shown us a new way of looking at these things.

Which, he proves, is also a national pasttime. We love to watch disasters so long as we are safe personally. The 24/7 news coverage now in place makes it all so easy. We can even watch our army go to war live and in color. When a hurricane hits someplace we can be certain that Jim Cantore will be there! And we do watch, we can't help it.

You can see why I say there is more to this book than I expected. I witheld a 5th star because it could have used some tables and graphs and some maps. I no longer have the book so I cannot check the acknowledgements to see who supported his research. Probably it was departmental funds from within the university where he was getting his degree. I doubt that money originated in the Dept of Defense or DHS!

Edit 10/2/14: "The Public Storm -- Hurricanes And The State In 20th Century America" by Raymond Arsenault and found here: Paradise Lost?: The Environmental History of Florida (Florida History and Culture) contains a very similar argument.
Quoting 108. washingaway:


I hate looters!
Agreed.
Hope that folks along the Gulf Coast, especially those in LA are ok.

Awesome shot from the AMSR-2 yesterday. Shows the ice, and the storm headng into that region.

Given recent trends in total greenhouse gas trends, global warming will exceed scenarios/projections, and we will see bigger storms, much sooner than is plausible from published model runs.

Really, given current modeling was 3 consecutive warmest years plausible? In my world, things with a 1 in a million chance of happening do not happen by chance. Rather, such events are driven by a system that is out of control and is seeking new control limits. Since we have not modeled natural feedback loops such as permafrost melt and clathrate decomposition, we have no clue as to how fast the global climate system can seek new controls, or where those controls might be.

If history and statistics was a predictor, we would not have had 3 consecutive warmest years. Statistics is only useful, when the system or population remains the same. The greenhouse gas concentration in the system is changing year by year. Thus, year by year the system is different.

This is a real problem. You may have vast experience with weather and climate. However, that was with the Old Earth Weather System. Today, we have a New Weather System, with more heat, less ice, and more greenhouse gas, so it is gaining heat faster. Today's New Weather System, does not act like Old Earth Weather System. And tomorrow's Weather System will have more heat to work with and will have moved tropical heat captured yesterday, to the poles. Tomorrow, the system will behave differently.

I expect 84% of you to dismiss this post because weather is an observational science based on statistical comparisons with past events. Yes, but that was Old Weather.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Joaquin Valley CA
244 PM PST TUE FEB 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Hanford CA has issued a

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FAILURE AFFECTING...
Northeastern Madera County in central California...

* Until 245 PM PST Wednesday

* At 242 PM PST...THE Madera County REPORTED THAT the earthen dam on
Lewis Fork north of Yosemite Forks has or will fail shortly.

THIS IS AN EMERGENCY!

ALL PERSONS LIVING WITHIN THE FLOOD PLAIN DOWNSTREAM of the Cedar
Valley neighborhood SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO FOLLOW SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONCERNING REQUIRED EVACUATIONS.
Quoting 118. Lewis101:

Given recent trends in total greenhouse gas trends, global warming will exceed scenarios/projections, and we will see bigger storms, much sooner than is plausible from published model runs.

Really, given current modeling was 3 consecutive warmest years plausible? In my world, things with a 1 in a million chance of happening do not happen by chance. Rather, such events are driven by a system that is out of control and is seeking new control limits. Since we have not modeled natural feedback loops such as permafrost melt and clathrate decomposition, we have no clue as to how fast the global climate system can seek new controls, or where those controls might be.

If history and statistics was a predictor, we would not have had 3 consecutive warmest years. Statistics is only useful, when the system or population remains the same. The greenhouse gas concentration in the system is changing year by year. Thus, year by year the system is different.

This is a real problem. You may have vast experience with weather and climate. However, that was with the Old Earth Weather System. Today, we have a New Weather System, with more heat, less ice, and more greenhouse gas, so it is gaining heat faster. Today's New Weather System, does not act like Old Earth Weather System. And tomorrow's Weather System will have more heat to work with and will have moved tropical heat captured yesterday, to the poles. Tomorrow, the system will behave differently.

I expect 84% of you to dismiss this post because weather is an observational science based on statistical comparisons with past events. Yes, but that was Old Weather.

I struggle with this as a professional hydrologist. Everyone wants to know what the 100-year flood will be. Now, not only have we not been measuring streamflow for very long (should probably have 500+ years of record), but as we're slowly collecting data, the climate is slowly changing. So really, who knows?

How big will the 100-year flood be? BIG! Is that good enough? Because that's honestly about the best we can do.
Quoting 91. bwi:

DC just crushed the daily record high. 73degrees F at 3:30; prior record high for date was 64
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weath er-gang/wp/2017/02/07/70s-in-february-record-high- temperatures-surge-in-the-eastern-u-s/?hpid=hp_loc al-news_cwg-1pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.0 9b4a 88e2e70
A little trivia--64 on February 7 and on December 17 were the lowest record highs in Washington DC. Our record high in Baltimore was taken out by 8 degrees. Our old record was also 64, and it was our lowest record high. We have a few record highs of 66, none at 65.

Baltimore has 19 record highs in the 60s left. Washington DC has 10. How many will be left by 2100?
No tropical weather to discuss right now, but here are my way too early 2017 Atlantic hurricane season thoughts if anyone is interested.
Quoting 122. HurricaneFan:

No tropical weather to discuss right now, but here are my way too early 2017 Atlantic hurricane season thoughts if anyone is interested.


Dead boring here :(
Old English word of the day: lencten - spring (the season). Pronounced "lenk-ten"

February 7th was the first day of spring in some Anglo-Saxon calendars (some also said February 4th or 5th)
Quoting 123. CaribBoy:
Dead boring here :(
Come to Nantucket

I would hate to be a looter. ;-J
CaribBoy once went to Nantucket
Where the wind was so cold he said "frak it".
He said with a grin
while drinking his gin,
"your limerick's so dumb you should shut it"

;)
Quoting 119. BayFog:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Joaquin Valley CA
244 PM PST TUE FEB 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Hanford CA has issued a

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FAILURE AFFECTING...
Northeastern Madera County in central California...

* Until 245 PM PST Wednesday

* At 242 PM PST...THE Madera County REPORTED THAT the earthen dam on
Lewis Fork north of Yosemite Forks has or will fail shortly.

THIS IS AN EMERGENCY!

ALL PERSONS LIVING WITHIN THE FLOOD PLAIN DOWNSTREAM of the Cedar
Valley neighborhood SHOULD BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO FOLLOW SPECIFIC INSTRUCTIONS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND LOCAL
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONCERNING REQUIRED EVACUATIONS.


for all the money that cali has i have never understood why the levees have not been taken care of...such an important part of the infrastructure puzzle.
jimijr~ Nice review. After the hurricanes in '04 the east coast of FL, we really pulled together. People loaded their trucks and got paid at the dump for the debris they brought. We got hit one, after another, after another & would have it cleaned up in a week or two by anyone with a truck, maybe a trailer and a want. By '05 laws changed, people had to buy proper trucks and be licensed before the storm. People were storm weary so some jumped the hoops for one good storm. Then there was decade of no storms. When Matthew came through the regulations had farther increased, requiring a more corporate like business. The few companies left were stretched thin from the long rake of damage. It took 6 weeks for them to make the first pass in this area. It has quickly gone from the govt paying the people that need it most for a quick clean up, to big commercial endeavors giving taxpayer money to the fewest possible people.

Here was the day Matthew street pick up finally arrived (Round 1)..




CaribBoy~ It's not looking good for you. Forecast so dry for the next few months. We can hope the summer one was way off.

Quoting 130. BaltimoreBrian:



*** 'A Conservative Climate Solution': Republican Group Calls for Carbon Tax


The problem is that this is the old Republican guard that is proposing this. This will not fly with the new Republican guard. Or, at least, I do not see it happening.
133. MahFL
The front just came through Orange Park, it was the most intense front I have seen in over a decade. Power flickered.
I would say 70 mph gusts.
New Orleans,and others took it on the chin really bad today. But the folks here are K steeled and ready to geaux at it in the am. Back from the boys House of Blues Show tonight. Lotsa good vibes there.

Thanks for all the concern and werds tonight.

They mean a lot.

Rest.


Breaking Stories and information from WWL-TV Channel 4, Eyewitness News, CBS affiliate in New Orleans





Glad you are still posting articles BB... I enjoy them.
Patrap - I feel such a loss for NOLA. That city has been through so much lately. Wishing them a quick recovery.
The weather here in NOLA has been more spring like than winter.


Paris coat of arms Nice fleurs-de-lis, eh? ;-)

Quoting 141. ChiThom:



Paris coat of arms Nice fleurs-de-lis, eh?

My dad tells me our family coat of arms depicts crossed shovels behind a parade of horses.
Ouch Washingaway.
It's all about $$$ and some don't care enough to get tough on it. More bad mojo IMO.

As far as our rainstorm in Soo Cal the last 2 days.........mucho rain around my neighborhood with Palomar Mountain locations near me getting over 3" of rain and only .47 at my abode.

Some Soo Cal storm totals........and say a prayer for the folks up north who will be affected by a snowmelt causing flooding.

Link

If all this rain keeps up........I have a feeling these colors in Cali for drought purposes will mostly go bye bye.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:04 PM WST February 8 2017
==========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low 15U (984 hPa) was located overland near 20.4S 119.3E, about 70 km east of Port Hedland. Recent movement has been to the south at about 15 km/h.

The low is now overland, and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, damaging winds and areas of heavy rainfall are possible through parts of the Pilbara and Gascoyne today and on Thursday. A Severe Weather Warning [IDW20032] is current; refer to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

Various Flood Warnings are also current across the Kimberley and Pilbara; refer to www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

Quoting 132. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



The problem is that this is the old Republican guard that is proposing this. This will not fly with the new Republican guard. Or, at least, I do not see it happening.


The old republican guard would be considered rainbow wearing tree hugging liberal socialists compared to what passes for republicans today. The current batch aren't even republicans. They just took over the name.

But you're correct. The anti-science/anti-education/anti-environment idiots currently in office would never allow anything like this to get through.
Quoting 143. washingaway:




I have to keep reminding myself it's only February. :P
Good morning ...

Controversial Dakota pipeline to go ahead after Army approval
by Reuters, Wednesday, 8 February 2017 01:56 GMT

Watchdog sues Trump EPA pick to disclose contact with companies
by Reuters, Tuesday, 7 February 2017 20:02 GMT

Food Security, Forests At Risk Under Trump’s USDA

Climate Central, Feb 7
U.S. food security, forest health, and the ability of farmers to respond to climate change are all at risk if President’s Trump’s pick to lead the U.S. Department of Agriculture brings climate change skepticism to the agency, agricultural researchers and environmental law experts say. ...

Siemens, Voest and Verbund to build largest green hydrogen site
by Reuters, Tuesday, 7 February 2017 15:30 GMT
The new research plant will be the biggest in the world to use so-called Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) technology developed by Siemens, which the German company says smoothes out power supply fluctuations better than other technologies. ...

Boosting water table can curb climate risks, says study
By Mark Kinver, Environment reporter, BBC News, 6 February 2017
Another secondary low of big "Niklas" is heading off the west coast of Iceland towards Greenland today:
People warned to tie down loose objects before storm
Nature and Travel | Iceland Monitor | Wed 8 Feb 2017 | 0.30 GMT
Hurricane force winds passing over South and West Iceland wi begin with a bang tomorrow morning.
Meterologist Þorsteinn Jónsson at the Iceland Met Office says the worst of the weather will be on the West Coast, Reykjanes and Snæfellsnes. ...




-----------------------

Ice, ice data
January sea-ice extent hits record low
A final sprint was too little, too late to make up for an early part of the month that saw sea-ice growth stall, and even recede in some areas
February 7, 2017 - 6:54pm - By The Arctic Journal
Australia:
Heatwave warning issued for this weekend
By Adam Duggan, 5:30pm February 8, 2017


Temperature anomaly in the next 5 days in the Southern Hemisphere. Australia in the lower right corner.

Perth bushfire: Lives and homes under threat in Bedfordale
Updated 22 minutes ago

Longer, hotter summers predicted in extreme weather report by Climate Council
February 8, 20176:41pm
IMAGINE a city where 265 days a year, the temperature rises above 35C (95F).
The residents of Darwin in 2090 will not have to imagine it, because for them, it may well be their reality.
As Australians endure the summer of the seemingly never-ending heatwave, a new report from the Climate Council essentially has one message.
Get used to it.
If the country's greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current pace, it's going to get much worse. ...
Quoting 127. BaltimoreBrian:

CaribBoy once went to Nantucket
Where the wind was so cold he said "frak it".
He said with a grin
while drinking his gin,
"your limerick's so dumb you should shut it"

;)

Some Brian living in Baltimore
Said Caribboy your entries bore.
To Nantucket you go
And don't take it slow.
But he's still sitting in Baltimore.
Good Morning and prayers for those in Louisiana and Alabama in recovery mode after yesterday's tornadoes. Lots of folks were caught off guard yesterday as it was a rapid turn of events in the course of just a few hours. I am thinking that the conus jet along the Central Gulf Coast swung around from Texas yesterday a little sooner than was anticipated and was able to catch up with the front as it passed through LA adding the needed vorticity for the tornadic activity.

Here is the count from yesterday below; the front came through Tallahassee yesterday afternoon around 6:30 pm and while we had no tornadoes, and it was a short term event, the winds in the t-storms packed quite a strong punch across this region with lots of branches and limbs all around town this morning.

Also, and as you can see from the current GFS shear chart, the jet set up right over Louisiana yesterday (and is still there this morning) but dipped down to the South missing North Florida; that would also explain why the tornadoes died down East of LA and AL yesterday afternoon; unfortunately, it all gelled in that sweet spot right over LA and MS in terms of increased vorticity.


yesterday Filtered Reports Graphic
'Binary' spiraling system: something brewing east of Filipines (end of tail of that 'top' Pacific Low).
Similar case in the Atlantic side.

1 in 50 new jobs came from solar.
Yes we will need better forecasts for cloud cover.
http://link.computerworld.com/click/8813236.55420 /aHR0cDovL3d3dy5jb21wdXRlcndvcmxkLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlL zMxNjY4OTcvc3VzdGFpbmFibGUtaXQvcmVwb3J0LTEtaW4tNTA tbmV3LXVzLWpvYnMtY2FtZS1mcm9tLXNvbGFyLWxhc3QteWVhc i5odG1sP2lkZ19laWQ9OWJjZTM2ZWYzMWY4ZmM0YmYxNDM0OGM 5NzI4ZjVhNjI/562118323b35d01c468b517eC75edcde2
And here the Conus tornado count so far through January 27th (and past years for comparison).
We are waaaaaay above the three-year average for this Jan with 138; this is probably directly
tied to the incredibly mild Winter across the South this season which has allowed warm Gulf flow
and warm temps across the Northern Gulf to cause plenty of instability combined with jet dips.

We normally do not see this much tornado activity until the Spring season in May and June.
Bad omen for the future if we continue to get milder Winters across the Gulf.


TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH FRI JAN 27 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2017

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2017.. 2016 2015 2014 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 17 16 15 14 AV 17 16 15 14 AV
--- ---- ---- --- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 138 - 18 28 4 16 20 2 0 0 0 3 1 0 0 0
FEB - - 102 3 42 39 - 7 0 0 2 - 4 0 0 1
MAR - - 85 11 20 38 - 0 1 0 0 - 0 1 0 0
APR - - 140 171 129 146 - 1 2 35 12 - 1 1 8 3
MAY - - 216 381 130 242 - 2 7 0 3 - 2 5 0 2
JUN - - 86 184 286 185 - 0 0 2 0 - 0 0 2 0
JUL - - 107 115 85 102 - 0 0 4 1 - 0 0 1 0
AUG - - 89 45 33 55 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 36* 17 41 31 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
OCT - - 23* 40 73 45 - 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 1 0
NOV - - 69* 99 23 63 - 5 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0
DEC - - 14* 83 20 39 - 0 26 5 10 - 0 6 2 2
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 138 - 985 1177 886 1041 20 17 36 47 29 3 10 13 14 8



Ohhhhhhh boy!


Federal scientist cooked climate change books ahead of Obama presentation, whistle blower charges

“They had good data from buoys,” Bates told the Daily Mail. “And they threw it out and ‘corrected’ it by using the bad data from ships. You never change good data to agree with bad, but that’s what they did – so as to make it look as if the sea was warmer.”
Bates, who could not be reached for comment, but has published some of his allegations in a blog, claims to have documentation of his explosive charges and indicated more revelations are coming.
The current Administration and Congress is trying to erase every single thing that President Obama did in his last 8 years as if he never existed; however, when it comes to NASA/NOAA/and independent peer reviewed University Research on climate change issues from the past 30 years, they are going to have a tough time "erasing" that.........................
Drought identified as key to severity of West Nile virus epidemics
Phys.org - Feb 7.
A study led by UC Santa Cruz researchers has found that drought dramatically increases the severity of West Nile virus epidemics in the United States, although populations affected by large outbreaks acquire immunity that limits the size of subsequent epidemics. (...)
"We found that drought was the dominant weather variable correlated with the size of West Nile virus epidemics," said first author Sara Paull, who led the study as a post-doctoral researcher at UC Santa Cruz and is now at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. (...)

Click for more.
So NOAA has been accused of manipulating global warming data
Quoting 159. RitaEvac:

Ohhhhhhh boy!
Federal scientist cooked climate change books ahead of Obama presentation, whistle blower charges

%u201CThey had good data from buoys,%u201D Bates told the Daily Mail. %u201CAnd they threw it out and %u2018corrected%u2019 it by using the bad data from ships. You never change good data to agree with bad, but that%u2019s what they did %u2013 so as to make it look as if the sea was warmer.%u201D
Bates, who could not be reached for comment, but has published some of his allegations in a blog, claims to have documentation of his explosive charges and indicated more revelations are coming.

You don't dispute scientific findings in blogs and tabloids. You get a peer-reviewed study published and you discuss your findings with other qualified scientists:

* No Data Manipulation in 2015 Climate Study, Researchers Say

* Climate Change, Science, NOAA Falsely Maligned by Tabloid Spin

* Mail on Sunday launches the first salvo in the latest war against climate scientists
The Guardian - Feb 5.
(...) The real story here is that the denial industry has lost the battle on the science. There are no reputable scientists who discount the enormous human influence on our Earth's climate. Because they have lost that battle, they are manufacturing doubt about the science. They are making misleading claims and attacking scientists with intimidating tactics. This is a playbook that has been used for years. It should alarm everyone that excellent researchers like Dr. Thomas Karl from NOAA can be attacked for just telling us what the data says.
Quoting 163. 999Ai2016:


You don't dispute scientific findings in blogs and tabloids. You get a peer-reviewed study published and you discuss your findings with other qualified scientists:
* No Data Manipulation in 2015 Climate Study, Researchers Say
* Climate Change, Science, NOAA Falsely Maligned by Tabloid Spin
* Mail on Sunday launches the first salvo in the latest war against climate scientists
The Guardian - Feb 5.

(...) The real story here is that the denial industry has lost the battle on the science. There are no reputable scientists who discount the enormous human influence on our Earth's climate. Because they have lost that battle, they are manufacturing doubt about the science. They are making misleading claims and attacking scientists with intimidating tactics. This is a playbook that has been used for years. It should alarm everyone that excellent researchers like Dr. Thomas Karl from NOAA can be attacked for just telling us what the data says.


This guy is retired from NOAA.... was a lead scientist
I am reading at a local library on Saturday for National Reading Month and picked the following quote (and subsequent portion) from Thoreau after having visited Walden Pond this past Christmas Day; if you read it carefully, it applies today just as well, if not better, than it did back then and also mentions science:
However much we may admire the orator's occasional bursts of eloquence, the noblest written words are commonly as far behind or above the fleeting spoken language as the firmament with its stars is behind the clouds. There are the stars, and they who can may read them. The astronomers forever comment on and observe them. They are not exhalations like our daily colloquies and vaporous breath. What is called eloquence in the forum is commonly found to be rhetoric in the study. The orator yields to the inspiration of a transient occasion, and speaks to the mob before him, to those who can hear him; but the writer, whose more equable life is his occasion, and who would be distracted by the event and the crowd which inspire the orator, speaks to the intellect and health of mankind, to all in any age who can understand him.
Quoting 164. RitaEvac:



This guy is retired from NOAA.... was a lead scientist


Yes.

He's also been involved in numerous prior false claims.

http://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/stunning-ne w-data-indicates-el-nino-drove-record-highs-global -temperatures-david-rose-daily-mail/

...

Quoting 164. RitaEvac:



This guy is retired from NOAA.... was a lead scientist
To quote 999Ai2016: You don't dispute scientific findings in blogs and tabloids. You get a peer-reviewed study published and you discuss your findings with other qualified scientists.

Bates retired last year, and opened up his private consultancy practice in November. Word on the street is he was just hoping for a little free publicity to help drum up business--even if in doing so he permanently tarnished his scientific reputation.
Quoting 162. RitaEvac:

So NOAA has been accused of manipulating global warming data
And I've been accused of starting the Chicago Fire, but that doesn't necessarily make it so. --Nice Guy Eddie
Quoting 167. Neapolitan:

To quote 999Ai2016: You don't dispute scientific findings in blogs and tabloids. You get a peer-reviewed study published and you discuss your findings with other qualified scientists.

Bates retired last year, and opened up his private consultancy practice in November. Word on the street is he was just hoping for a little free publicity to help drum up business--even if in doing so he permanently tarnished his scientific reputation.


Ah, I see. Then false alarm, nothing to see here folks.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE
NEVADA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY ELKO NEVADA
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
807 PM PST TUE FEB 7 2017

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE ELKO
COUNTY NEVADA SHERIFF IN COOPERATION WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN ELKO...

WIDESPREAD RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG STREAMS AND IN LOW
SPOTS FROM RAPID SNOW MELT. SWIFT WATER RESCUES ARE OCCURRING AND
ONGOING ACCIDENTS ARE MAKING LAW ENFORCEMENT AND WEATHER
PERSONNEL`S JOBS MUCH HARDER.

THIS IS LIFE THREATENING SITUATION COUNTY WIDE.

REPEAT...THIS IS LIFE THREATENING.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADS. IF YOU LIVE NEAR A FLOOD PRONE
AREA BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

OBEY LAW ENFORCEMENT. IF YOU ARE TOLD TO EVACUATE, DO SO.

FLOODING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE AT NIGHT UNTIL YOU ARE SWEPT AWAY.

IF YOU COME TO A FLOODED OR CLOSED ROAD, TURN AROUND. DON`T DROWN.

Quoting 168. RitaEvac:



Ah, I see. Then false alarm, nothing to see here folks.

Rita, its just the tip of the iceberg. There will be massive fallout from this. The administration that is in charge right now is not stupid. They know very well what they have to do to validate their methodology. This has been an ever growing war with these same people that are making the front page news today. Lamar Smith, Myron Ebell, Scott Pruitt, Dr. Bates, David Rose. They have all a track record doing this exact same [insert bad word here]. Now they have an Administration that will fully support their ideas and every method they see fit to undermine it. They have put all these people in key positions to successfully destroy it. Make no mistake, this election was all about Climate Change and was from day one. They will do everything in their power to make it disappear to credit their exploitation of Oil in the Arctic with Russia.
And that my friend doesn't come from fake news or any news site. I watch what these people say, then I watch what these people do.
Quoting 168. RitaEvac:


Ah, I see. Then false alarm, nothing to see here folks.

Yep.

Not that it will stop the false doubt squad from crying, "Fraud!" in the usual think tanks and blogs -- and on their chief propaganda outlet, Fox News, as we saw in your link.

They are trying to turn this into the next Climategate, the fake scandal over some climate scientists' emails stolen in 2009.
169. LAbonbon
9:11 AM EST on February 08, 2017

Thank you for posting this; you just reminded us of a huge issue coming up over the next few months related to the recent snows across the Western, NW, and Northern tier of the US; the upcoming US Spring flood season from snow-melt downstream and into the MS and other valley regions............This is going to be a very tough year in terms of weather events/disasters across the globe.

To “build in good weather expecting good weather” is not the issue.
Ignoring historical bad weather or which buildings collapse under bad weather is a problem.
Willoughby spit in Norfolk VA was created by a hurricane. So people built there. However part of I-64 built in 1965(1967?) was not built on it but runs parallel along the homes. After which for the next fifty years new homes have been built on the spit the Army corps of Engineers felt was “too unsafe to support a road”
Its not just the foundation – but the joints. Look, the building codes of an area hit by a hurricane require bolting the roof structure through the walls to the foundation. Larger studs are used and real 4x8 paneling along all walls, not just the corners. Often the next city over does not have these codes. Yes, less than a hundred feet over in the “next county or city” the codes have not changed. After all “they did not get hit.” The issue is they believe they *will* not get hit.

Earth quakes on the east coast, explosion on the New Madrid fault, Lapalma island tsunami wiping out the east coast from Florida to Main – eight hour travel time. Asteroid hitting the earth. CAT-6 hurricane or F-7 Tornado are not prohibited by the laws of physics nor nature and therefore could happen. In my opinion they will happen, just not tomorrow.
What to do? Do not build a house of straw. Have a plan. Do the difficult thing – practice the plan.

When the lights go out – have a flash light. Have an emergency radio. Know where to go. FEMA is a great department but they arrive *after* the disaster and help the local authorities to manage recovery. Yes FEMA works hard to inform people on how to prepare. Sadly only a few listen. When they do it all works. Case in point “Cajun Navy” who took care of a major flooding event to the point the news almost did not cover it. Evacuation in Texas causing highway gridlock. Other people then went out with water, food and gas to help the people trapped in the evacuation route.
Please do build a safe house. Please do build an emergency kit. Please do build good hobbits of monitoring the weather. Please do practice your evacuation.

(Start semi science fiction part )
What about me? I like my “Citizen Advanced Venue of Ecofriendly” housing. All natural stone. Temperature controlled at 58F. C.A.V.E housing is the way to go. Material is free and comes right out of the ground and into the pre-cast mold. Working with Lava is not easy, but we are technologically advanced society. The only drawback is “cookie cutter” look. That and adding new wires.
(End semi science fiction part )

I went back to the blog from the weekend where the Daily Mail article was refuted (Climate Science Denial Shifts to a New Tactic Among Trump Appointees), so those responses could be referenced without having to re-post everything. But...it looks like over 400 comments, including all the exchanges about the piece, are gone. :(
Quoting 124. BaltimoreBrian:

Old English word of the day: lencten - spring (the season). Pronounced "lenk-ten"

February 7th was the first day of spring in some Anglo-Saxon calendars (some also said February 4th or 5th)


Lent comes from the old English word.
Quoting 161. 999Ai2016:

Drought identified as key to severity of West Nile virus epidemics
Phys.org - Feb 7.
A study led by UC Santa Cruz researchers has found that drought dramatically increases the severity of West Nile virus epidemics in the United States, although populations affected by large outbreaks acquire immunity that limits the size of subsequent epidemics. (...)
"We found that drought was the dominant weather variable correlated with the size of West Nile virus epidemics," said first author Sara Paull, who led the study as a post-doctoral researcher at UC Santa Cruz and is now at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. (...)

Click for more.

What a fascinating piece of research. I would have thought just the opposite - that WNV would be worse after a rainy period.
Quoting 175. ChiThom:
Lent comes from the old English word.

In German the old word for "spring" is "lenz" :-)
Quoting 124. BaltimoreBrian

Old English word of the day: lencten - spring (the season). Pronounced "lenk-ten"

February 7th was the first day of spring in some Anglo-Saxon calendars (some also said February 4th or 5th)

Actually, I've always treated January 6th - Epiphany - as the first day a spring. The earlier spring starts the faster winter ends.
A Beautiful morning here in Nawlin's...but it is tempered with the woe of yesterday. First light I drove east to the edge of the damage..just 5 miles to my East.

Awful..just plain sadness.

And that, it why we do what we do,



Quoting 174. LAbonbon:

I went back to the blog from the weekend where the Daily Mail article was refuted (Climate Science Denial Shifts to a New Tactic Among Trump Appointees), so those responses could be referenced without having to re-post everything. But...it looks like over 400 comments, including all the exchanges about the piece, are gone. :(


Someone should have downloaded it to their own offsite computer...
I'm waiting for the accidents to taper-off (slick roads this morning caused accidents on the roads I need to drive on) before I go to work. Hopefully they will be sanded or salted before I get there.
Forgetting non-science related political discourse as to current issues in the US  on this Blog site, but if you only focus in on environmental issues (EPA), educational issues (DOE), and Climate Issues, this is a disaster in the making already.  And God help the Arctic if Russia goes full tilt, after lifting of sanctions, with the Exxon-Mobile drilling projects triggering additional exploitation of that region and even the possibility of oil spills and the like.  As it turns out, the top of the world is pretty much the linchpin of global climate patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere and if you mess with the Arctic, it is going too mess with us as already demonstrated by polar amplification issues.  We need to preserve what it left up there at all costs.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Florida Has Seen Bad Effects from Trump-like Climate Gag Orders
The state, and North Carolina, had trouble planning for damaging erosion after orders similar to White House moves
Scientific American, By John McQuaid on February 8, 2017

Who's Still Fighting Climate Change? The U.S. Military
Despite political gridlock over global warming, the Pentagon is pushing ahead with plans to protect its assets from sea-level rise and other impacts. Here's how.
National Geographic, PUBLISHED February 7, 2017

Russia Prepares as Warming Climate Thaws Ice-Free Superhighway
A warming climate is opening up the northern sea route connecting northern Europe and Asian and North American ports. Russia has Arctic icebreakers at the ready. The United States has one.
Feb 8, 2017 09:27 AM ET

Pakistan facing disasters due to climate change — minister
Pakistan ranks seventh among countries most affected by climate change
Published: 17:36 February 8, 2017
Quoting 178. kastigar:

Quoting 124. BaltimoreBrian

Old English word of the day: lencten - spring (the season). Pronounced "lenk-ten"

February 7th was the first day of spring in some Anglo-Saxon calendars (some also said February 4th or 5th)

Actually, I've always treated January 6th - Epiphany - as the first day a spring. The earlier spring starts the faster winter ends.


"Actually, I've always treated January 6th - Epiphany - as the first day a spring. The earlier spring starts the faster winter ends."

Love your optimism :)
Quoting 162. RitaEvac:

So NOAA has been accused of manipulating global warming data
So who would of thought it, NOAA or other agencies manipulating data, so they can receive funding from the government. If the data shows the oceans, or atmosphere are cooling this doesn't go along with the agenda, and I wonder what would happen to there funding.