WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Winter Abandons South Florida: A Record-Warm Two-Month Stretch

By: Bob Henson 11:05 PM GMT on February 01, 2017

Millions of people head to Florida to soak up the state’s famed winter mildness—but this year’s snowbirds may feel more like they flew into a summer sauna. The winter of 2015-16 featured periods of exceptional warmth in South Florida, yet even that high bar is being eclipsed by the persistent simmering that’s gone on for most of the last two months. In Miami, the average temperature of 74.65°F for the two-month period of Dec. 2016 - Jan. 2017 is a full degree above the 73.6°F record from 1971-72 in NOAA/NCEI data going back to 1948, and it also tops any two-month Dec-Jan interval in NWS/Miami data going back to 1895. Likewise, Key West averaged 75.25°F for the two-month Dec-Jan period, besting the record of 74.8°F (1990-91) in NCEI records going back to 1901.

The two cities also racked up an impressive pile of daily records along the way. Between Dec. 1, 2016, and Jan. 31, 2017, a total of 11 warmest highs for the date and 6 warmest lows for the date were tied or broken in Miami, where record-keeping began in 1895. In Key West, 5 daily record highs and 6 daily warmest-low records were set. Another sign of this winter’s persistent warmth: Miami has yet to dip below 50°F. It’s only the third time in Miami history that a winter has gone this late without reaching the 40s at least once. Hand in hand with the extremely warm air, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic have also been unusually high. As reported by Brian McNoldy, on January 27, the water temperature in Miami's Biscayne Bay was 80.2°. The average for the date: 70.8°.

The potential role of the now-fading La Niña
La Niña may have played a part in South Florida’s summerlike winter. The last several months of 2016 featured weak La Niña conditions in the Pacific, and temperatures across the United States were very consistent with that: generally cooler than average toward the northwest and milder than average toward the southeast, including Florida. However, the current La Niña event appears to be on its last legs: the cooling of the tropical equatorial Pacific has weakened and retreated to the central Pacific, while unusually warm SSTs and sultry air invade the coast of Peru and Ecuador, producing conditions more akin to El Niño than La Niña. Daily low temperatures over the weekend of around 77°F were among the warmest on record in Lima, Peru. The latest roundup of international climate models posted on Monday by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows that full-fledged El Niño could be in place as soon as this summer, even by the more strict Australian definition (SSTs in the Niño3.4 region of at least 0.8°C above average, vs. the 0.5°C required by NOAA).

Cooler air finally moved into the state over the weekend, producing a chilly, rainy Sunday. Fort Lauderdale tied its record lowest high for the date (62°F), as did West Palm Beach (59°F). South Florida then saw the lowest temperatures of the winter thus far, including 51°F in Miami (Mon), 51°F at Fort Lauderdale (Mon & Tues) and 43°F in West Palm Beach (Tue). The cooldown will be short-lived, though, as upper-level ridging will help build the warmth back into the state over the next week.

Bob Henson


Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Global warming continues from burning Fossil Fuels to run our societies..

unabated.

From the Guardian:

Green movement 'greatest threat to freedom', says Trump adviser


Myron Ebell said he rejects the ‘expertariat’ who ‘have been wrong about one thing after another, including climate policy’. Photograph: AP

The environmental movement is “the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world”, according to an adviser to the US president Donald Trump’s administration.

Myron Ebell, who has denied the dangers of climate change for many years and led Trump’s transition team for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) until the president’s recent inauguration, also said he fully expected Trump to keep his promise to withdraw the US from the global agreement to fight global warming.

Ebell said US voters had rejected what he dubbed the “expertariat” and said there was no doubt that Trump thinks that climate change is not a crisis and does not require urgent action.

[...]

Ebell, who has returned to his role at the anti-regulation thinktank the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said on Monday: “The environmental movement is, in my view, the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world.”

The CEI does not disclose its funders but has in the past received money from the oil giant ExxonMobil. “Our special interest is, I would say, freedom,” Ebell said.

[...]

Ebell, speaking in London, claimed that the motivation for climate action was protecting a special interest: “The climate-industrial complex is a gigantic special interest that involves everyone from the producers of higher priced energy to the academics that benefit from advancement in their careers and larger government grants.” The IMF has calculated that fossil fuels receive $10m every minute in subsidies, while the fossil fuel industry spends at least $100m a year on lobbying.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, recently reaffirmed his nation’s commitment to tackling climate change and said the nation’s green investments were already “paying off”. China pledged earlier in January to invest $360bn in renewable energy by 2020.

In an echo of Trump’s claim that climate change was a hoax invented by China, Ebell said: “China is making big investments in producing more solar panels and windmills, which they sell to gullible consumers in the western world, so that power and electricity prices will become higher and the Chinese economy will become more competitive.”

Many experts say that the best way to “make America great again” would be to invest in the fast expanding, trillion-dollar market for clean technologies and that failing to tackle climate change will destroy economic growth.

[...]

Scott Pruitt, Donald Trump’s pick to lead the US EPA, is a climate change sceptic and has sued the agency he is now set to lead 14 times over the EPA’s smog, mercury and other pollution regulations. His confirmation vote in the Senate is expected on Wednesday.

Click here to read full article
March for Science:
‏@ScienceMarchDC

The March for Science will take place on April 22, 2017. We hope to see you in D.C. and around the world!

March for Science new website: https://www.marchforscience.com/




Need to find a March for Science near you? Check out this #ScienceMarch list from @sciencemarchpdx!

Here's a member list for #solidarity marches in Europe https://twitter.com/Scientists4EU/lists/european- science-marches/members

Quoting 3. Xandra:

March for Science:
‏@ScienceMarchDC

The March for Science will take place on April 22, 2017. We hope to see you in D.C. and around the world!

March for Science new website: https://www.marchforscience.com/




Need to find a March for Science near you? Check out this #ScienceMarch list from @sciencemarchpdx!

Here's a member list for #solidarity marches in Europe https://twitter.com/Scientists4EU/lists/european- science-marches/members





I'll be needing the week off for the March Grothar,..if that is Ok ?

It is,is it ?

Going to search to see if there is any correlation/link between warmer winters and activities as to TS or there lack of tyhe immediate TS year...
It's also been quite dry over the southern half of Florida.

Precipitation totals for the past 3 months at (Page Field) our official reporting station in Fort Myers.

Jan. 1.53"
Dec. .24"
Nov. 0.0"

So only 1.77" of rain in the past 3 months.
Good to see the ship is still afloat... thanks for the new post Bob...
Quoting 6. Sfloridacat5:

It's also been quite dry over the southern half of Florida.

Precipitation totals for the past 3 months at (Page Field) our official reporting station in Fort Myers.

Jan. 1.53"
Dec. .24"
Nov. 0.0"

So only 1.77" of rain in the past 3 months.

Yikes, that is dry...
Quoting 1. Patrap:

The Global warming continues from burning Fossil Fuels to run our societies..

unabated.


Faster and faster.
Geological Diagrams (1851) by John Emslie and James Reynolds. Many more stunning images inside link. All images are expandable.







ICYMI, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Otto was released this afternoon. It was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane from its operational intensity of 95kt, the final of four major hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2016.

Link
February 1st is St. Brigid's day (died February 1, 524 AD). She is the patron saint of beer, butter and bacon. Celebrate!
Quoting 13. BaltimoreBrian:

February 1st is St. Brigid's day (died February 1, 524 AD). She is the patron saint of beer, butter and bacon. Celebrate!

I like beer, butter, and bacon. I shall celebrate! I will have a bacon cheese burger on a buttered bun and a large beer please.
Spy In The Wild on PBS now.
Quoting 2. Xandra:

From the Guardian:

Green movement 'greatest threat to freedom', says Trump adviser


Myron Ebell said he rejects the ‘expertariat’ who ‘have been wrong about one thing after another, including climate policy’. Photograph: AP

The environmental movement is “the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world”, according to an adviser to the US president Donald Trump’s administration.

Myron Ebell, who has denied the dangers of climate change for many years and led Trump’s transition team for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) until the president’s recent inauguration, also said he fully expected Trump to keep his promise to withdraw the US from the global agreement to fight global warming.

Ebell said US voters had rejected what he dubbed the “expertariat” and said there was no doubt that Trump thinks that climate change is not a crisis and does not require urgent action.

[...]

Ebell, who has returned to his role at the anti-regulation thinktank the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said on Monday: “The environmental movement is, in my view, the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world.”

The CEI does not disclose its funders but has in the past received money from the oil giant ExxonMobil. “Our special interest is, I would say, freedom,” Ebell said.

[...]

Ebell, speaking in London, claimed that the motivation for climate action was protecting a special interest: “The climate-industrial complex is a gigantic special interest that involves everyone from the producers of higher priced energy to the academics that benefit from advancement in their careers and larger government grants.” The IMF has calculated that fossil fuels receive $10m every minute in subsidies, while the fossil fuel industry spends at least $100m a year on lobbying.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, recently reaffirmed his nation’s commitment to tackling climate change and said the nation’s green investments were already “paying off”. China pledged earlier in January to invest $360bn in renewable energy by 2020.

In an echo of Trump’s claim that climate change was a hoax invented by China, Ebell said: “China is making big investments in producing more solar panels and windmills, which they sell to gullible consumers in the western world, so that power and electricity prices will become higher and the Chinese economy will become more competitive.”

Many experts say that the best way to “make America great again” would be to invest in the fast expanding, trillion-dollar market for clean technologies and that failing to tackle climate change will destroy economic growth.

[...]

Scott Pruitt, Donald Trump’s pick to lead the US EPA, is a climate change sceptic and has sued the agency he is now set to lead 14 times over the EPA’s smog, mercury and other pollution regulations. His confirmation vote in the Senate is expected on Wednesday.

Click here to read full article
The freedom to pollute is a great American freedom, just ask anyone who has the money to have multiple homes in various areas to escape any discomfort.
Thanks Mr. Henson and glad to see that the Blog is back up. I have been saying the same thing about North Florida for the past several months. We had only about 3-4 "freeze" days in the period between October 20167 through last week when the temps (after Spring in Winter up here) dropped back down to a four day stretch into the mid-30s (still no freeze days) last week. Every Spring plant and flower is blooming in Tallahassee at the moment and I was waiting to see what February brought us which is always the coldest month up here. What we have this first week of February are mild temps all week, through the weekend, with highs in the mid-70's; unbelievable for these parts.

Point being that all of Florida is under the same effect as well as all of the States along the Gulf Coast this Winter.


Quoting 18. weathermanwannabe:

Thanks Mr. Henson and glad to see that the Blog is back up. I have been saying the same thing about North Florida for the past several months. We had only about 3-4 "freeze" days in the period between October 20167 through last week when the temps (after Spring in Winter up here) dropped back down to a four day stretch into the mid-30s (still no freeze days) last week. Every Spring plant and flower is blooming in Tallahassee at the moment and I was waiting to see what February brought us which is always the coldest month up here. What we have this first week of February are mild temps all week, through the weekend, with highs in the mid-70's; unbelievable for these parts.

Point being that all of Florida is under the same effect as well as all of the States along the Gulf Coast this Winter: here is out forecast for Friday.






Feeling bipolar here in Houston ..had to turn the heat on two/three days ago to take off the chill ...had AC on today?
Search For The Super Battery on PBS, tonight 8:00 CDT.
I assume y'all have figured out I'm a big fan of PBS.
I fully agree with this option: make the investment-commitment now (a 10 or 20 year plan) in terms of clean manufacturing and jobs and start to reap the benefits for America and future generations. By the way (American auto makers before the Asian ones do), the first automaker to bring the first hybrid or electric pick-up truck to the market which can deliver the same amount of hauling torque as your standard F150 or Silverado is going to make a mint in the global truck market.........................Get to it.

Many experts say that the best way to make America great again would be to invest in the fast expanding, trillion-dollar market for clean technologies and that failing to tackle climate change will destroy economic growth.
During some epic blog hole during Matthew, there was talk about creating a backup group for this blog on Facebook for these situations. And this exceeded other blog holes remarkably... but Facebook insists that I should add one friend to my group if I create such... :( And I don't have any WU members as my Facebook friends. Anyone else willing to create such a group?
A bizarre story from last week following up on Georgia's tornado disaster: Georgia lawmaker shot behind adult entertainment store while traveling with storm relief cash
Winter has seemed to abandon Texas for the second half of winter.
Quoting 13. BaltimoreBrian:

February 1st is St. Brigid's day (died February 1, 524 AD). She is the patron saint of beer, butter and bacon. Celebrate!


YUM!!!!!

Winter wasn't around last year in South Florida either... My last winter while living in Florida felt like the summer. I see this year is no different.
Quoting 4. Patrap:




I'll be needing the week off for the March Grothar,..if that is Ok ?

It is,is it ?




You may go, but check in. And don't forget your umbrella and rubbers. It rains a lot in April in Washington.
Quoting 23. BaltimoreBrian:

A bizarre story from last week following up on Georgia's tornado disaster: Georgia lawmaker shot behind adult entertainment store while traveling with storm relief cash


Uhhh.... He has got some explaining to do...
Quoting 25. Dakster:



YUM!!!!!

Winter wasn't around last year in South Florida either... My last winter while living in Florida felt like the summer. I see this year is no different.

Winter? What is this Winter you are speaking of?
Washington Post

Beyond the extreme’: Scientists marvel at ‘increasingly non-natural’ Arctic warmth



2016 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic, and 2017 has picked up right where it left off. “Arctic extreme (relative) warmth continues,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics, tweeted on Wednesday, referring to January’s temperatures.
Veteran Arctic climate scientists are stunned.
“[A]fter studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme,” wrote Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in an essay for Earth magazine.
At the North Pole, the mercury has rocketed to near the melting point twice since November, and another huge flux of warmth is projected by models next week. Their simulations predict some places in the high Arctic will rise over 50 degrees above normal

Quoting 28. Grothar:




Looks pretty good from here...
Quoting 29. PedleyCA:


Winter? What is this Winter you are speaking of?


I have winter now... Lows in the teens, highs in the low 30s... Maybe not where you are. and over 50 inches of snow so far.

Quoting 25. Dakster:



YUM!!!!!

Winter wasn't around last year in South Florida either... My last winter while living in Florida felt like the summer. I see this year is no different.
It was a picture perfect winter in Naples if you don't mind 60's for lows and low 80's for highs with a few cooler days thrown in. Water temps made it to the mid 60's Monday for the second time this year...already warming to 67 today.
The only real struggle is the million extra people that seem to be on the road in front of you every day.

Quoting 30. Grothar:

Washington Post

Beyond the extreme’: Scientists marvel at ‘increasingly non-natural’ Arctic warmth



2016 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic, and 2017 has picked up right where it left off. “Arctic extreme (relative) warmth continues,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics, tweeted on Wednesday, referring to January’s temperatures.
Veteran Arctic climate scientists are stunned.
“[A]fter studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme,” wrote Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in an essay for Earth magazine.
At the North Pole, the mercury has rocketed to near the melting point twice since November, and another huge flux of warmth is projected by models next week. Their simulations predict some places in the high Arctic will rise over 50 degrees above normal





The Plan is even slightly ahead of schedule.......

Das good, neaux?


RE: Grothar Post 30...They are going to need a bigger scale for those anomalies!
Just finished watching ; Aurora: Fire In The Sky, on, you guessed it, PBS. A lot of good science being done.
Quoting 35. Abacosurf:

RE: Grothar Post 30...They are going to need a bigger scale for those anomalies!



And this coming from Ryan Maue is even more interesting.
My meteorology friends (you know who you are...) have been bugging me for years to write an article for the Rochelle tornado from April 2015, so I finally decided to create it this week. For those interested:

Link


Kind of a cool site: USA National Phenology Network
Quoting 38. TropicalAnalystwx13:

My meteorology friends (you know who you are...) have been bugging me for years to write an article for the Rochelle tornado from April 2015, so I finally decided to create it this week. For those interested:

Link


Proud of you TA. It was so well written, I don't even have the heart to tease you. Professional all the way. I remember following that on here. Well done.

Weather Underground Facebook
@wunderground


Weather Underground
5 hrs ·
Spotted: Alan, WU’s resident Groundhog, prepping for his big day tomorrow - Groundhog Day! He may be preparing to return to his burrow for the evening, but he’ll be back in the AM to check on his shadow… and PWS.
Re: post #2 - Xandra - so very infuriating (!)

Re: post #11 - BaltimoreBrian - wonderful images, and another very cool site :)
Groundhog day comes from Candlemas Day, February 2nd, which in medieval calendars was the 40th and final day of Christmas. Winter in medieval calendars was defined as the shortest 91 days of the year (November 7 - February 3), so Candlemas was conflated with the end of winter. That early in the year there must have been a lot of disappointment!
Quoting 45. LAbonbon:

Re: post #2 - Xandra - so very infuriating (!)


Ain't it though. Stupidity is rampant! It seems everyday something really stupid comes out of somebody's mouth that has the best education money can buy. Which only gives credit to something I have been saying for years; "Intelligence and education, you can have one without the other!"
Quoting 44. washingaway:

Why earth is a prison and how to escape it

The comments alone were worth clicking on your link...
Quoting 37. Grothar:



And this coming from Ryan Maue is even more interesting.


This is what Chip Knapperberger, at the CATO Institute had to say -

"Yet the human influence on climate in the Arctic may be redefining the so-called natural variability, said Chip Knappenberger, a climate scientist at the Cato Institute. “Natural variability is itself is becoming increasingly ‘non-natural’ as it includes influences which themselves are shaped by anthropogenic activities,” he said.

Such a statement is notable coming from Knappenberger, who some consider a climate change skeptic and is unconvinced climate change is a serious problem."

‘Beyond the extreme’: Scientists marvel at ‘increasingly non-natural’ Arctic warmth

We know that we have a problem with a warming climate when these people say it is not natural.
Quoting 49. LAbonbon:


The comments alone were worth clicking on your link...

I didn't even look at the comments until you mentioned it. :)
Quoting 12. TropicalAnalystwx13:

ICYMI, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Otto was released this afternoon. It was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane from its operational intensity of 95kt, the final of four major hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2016.

Link


Well, as it stood I was finally spot on! That ruins my tally for the season darn it...but, totally agree with that upgrade. And would totally agree with an upgrade of the storm with no name. So fair enough, even if I was excited at the thought of finally getting the season right LOL

Glad to see the blog still exists!
Quoting 9. Kenfa03:

Faster and faster.


With no mention of Climate Engineering?
1/29/2017

Showers and overcast sky conditions prevented temperatures in Naples from warming up higher than 61 degrees on Sunday. The temperature reading breaks the city's record as the coldest daytime high for the date of Jan. 29th.

Before this afternoon the coldest daytime high Naples ever recorded on Jan. 29th was 64 degrees in 2007.

Temperatures peaking in the low 60s are rare in Southwest Florida. Normally during this time of the year daytime highs top out at 75 degrees in the afternoon.

Naples wasn't alone in its bout of cooler than average weather today. Fort Myers warmed to only 61 degrees on Sunday, putting it just 4 degrees above the city's record for the coldest daytime high temperature for Jan. 29th. That record has stood since 1955.

Despite the unusually cool and dreary appearance of today's weather, our region did pick up some much needed rainfall. The official rain gauge at Page Field Airport in Fort Myers tallied up .24" of rain. Today's accumulation is helpful for the region trying to make up January's rainfall deficit. Before today, Fort Myers had seen nearly .4" of rain less than normal for the month.


http://www.nbc-2.com/story/34374525/weather-blog- naples-breaks-record-for-coldest-daytime-high
Quoting 2. Xandra:

From the Guardian:

Green movement 'greatest threat to freedom', says Trump adviser


Myron Ebell said he rejects the ‘expertariat’ who ‘have been wrong about one thing after another, including climate policy’. Photograph: AP

The environmental movement is “the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world”, according to an adviser to the US president Donald Trump’s administration.

Myron Ebell, who has denied the dangers of climate change for many years and led Trump’s transition team for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) until the president’s recent inauguration, also said he fully expected Trump to keep his promise to withdraw the US from the global agreement to fight global warming.

Ebell said US voters had rejected what he dubbed the “expertariat” and said there was no doubt that Trump thinks that climate change is not a crisis and does not require urgent action.

[...]

Ebell, who has returned to his role at the anti-regulation thinktank the Competitive Enterprise Institute, said on Monday: “The environmental movement is, in my view, the greatest threat to freedom and prosperity in the modern world.”

The CEI does not disclose its funders but has in the past received money from the oil giant ExxonMobil. “Our special interest is, I would say, freedom,” Ebell said.

[...]

Ebell, speaking in London, claimed that the motivation for climate action was protecting a special interest: “The climate-industrial complex is a gigantic special interest that involves everyone from the producers of higher priced energy to the academics that benefit from advancement in their careers and larger government grants.” The IMF has calculated that fossil fuels receive $10m every minute in subsidies, while the fossil fuel industry spends at least $100m a year on lobbying.

China’s president, Xi Jinping, recently reaffirmed his nation’s commitment to tackling climate change and said the nation’s green investments were already “paying off”. China pledged earlier in January to invest $360bn in renewable energy by 2020.

In an echo of Trump’s claim that climate change was a hoax invented by China, Ebell said: “China is making big investments in producing more solar panels and windmills, which they sell to gullible consumers in the western world, so that power and electricity prices will become higher and the Chinese economy will become more competitive.”

Many experts say that the best way to “make America great again” would be to invest in the fast expanding, trillion-dollar market for clean technologies and that failing to tackle climate change will destroy economic growth.

[...]

Scott Pruitt, Donald Trump’s pick to lead the US EPA, is a climate change sceptic and has sued the agency he is now set to lead 14 times over the EPA’s smog, mercury and other pollution regulations. His confirmation vote in the Senate is expected on Wednesday.

Click here to read full article


I vote we send this idiot to the rare earth strip mines over in China and have him live there. Or perhaps take up full time residence in Centralia, PA. Or maybe wait for lake Eerie to catch on fire again and then offer him a cruise. Or maybe beach front property in front of a tailing pond.

People like this moron are both incredibly stupid and far too dangerous to be in charge of anything, let alone be an adviser on something as important as the environment.

When history looks back on these times, perhaps it won't be a Hitler like dictator that's viewed as the most detrimental to humanity, but people like this that will be deemed far more evil. Assuming there's anyone left to look back. :P
Quoting 33. Abacosurf:

It was a picture perfect winter in Naples if you don't mind 60's for lows and low 80's for highs with a few cooler days thrown in. Water temps made it to the mid 60's Monday for the second time this year...already warming to 67 today.
The only real struggle is the million extra people that seem to be on the road in front of you every day.




I don't miss the traffic... Summer up here is like that. There are only 300k people in Anchorage, 700k in the state - yet 3 million are here in the summer, most of which go through Anchorage. The ironic part is that I think traffic is worse in the winter because a lot of the time you can only go 30-40 mph because of the road conditions. In the summer 65 mph speed limit is possible and the side roads move a lot better too. Plus you are not waiting that 10-15 seconds for the first person in line at the light to get traction when the light turns green...

I don't really like the 80s part, but the 60s sound nice as long as the humidity is low.
I think I came close on Max's poll then!!!!

Quoting 12. TropicalAnalystwx13:

ICYMI, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Otto was released this afternoon. It was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane from its operational intensity of 95kt, the final of four major hurricanes in the Atlantic during 2016.

Link
Bet he runs around, jumps up and down, and dances the jig?

Quoting 41. Patrap:


Weather Underground Facebook
@wunderground


Weather Underground
5 hrs ·
Spotted: Alan, WU’s resident Groundhog, prepping for his big day tomorrow - Groundhog Day! He may be preparing to return to his burrow for the evening, but he’ll be back in the AM to check on his shadow… and PWS.

Quoting 55. Xyrus2000:



I vote we send this idiot to the rare earth strip mines over in China and have him live there. Or perhaps take up full time residence in Centralia, PA. Or maybe wait for lake Eerie to catch on fire again and then offer him a cruise. Or maybe beach front property in front of a tailing pond.

People like this moron are both incredibly stupid and far too dangerous to be in charge of anything, let alone be an adviser on something as important as the environment.

When history looks back on these times, perhaps it won't be a Hitler like dictator that's viewed as the most detrimental to humanity, but people like this that will be deemed far more evil. Assuming there's anyone left to look back. :P

But, but, he's highly educated. :/
Quoting 21. weathermanwannabe:

I fully agree with this option: make the investment-commitment now (a 10 or 20 year plan) in terms of clean manufacturing and jobs and start to reap the benefits for America and future generations. By the way (American auto makers before the Asian ones do), the first automaker to bring the first hybrid or electric pick-up truck to the market which can deliver the same amount of hauling torque as your standard F150 or Silverado is going to make a mint in the global truck market.........................Get to it.

Many experts say that the best way to make America great again would be to invest in the fast expanding, trillion-dollar market for clean technologies and that failing to tackle climate change will destroy economic growth.


Well there's the rub. The problem isn't torque. Electric motors have no problems creating large amounts of torque (full torque at 0 RPM) and are very efficient. They blow the doors off ICE engines.

The problem is power storage. We currently have no economically viable storage technology capable of supplying something the size of an F-150 with power while hauling tons of crap for any reasonable length of time. Unless you're hauling the battery pack itself which would be more massive than the truck. :P
Quoting 59. washingaway:


But, but, he's highly educated. :/


So is a lawyer, but that doesn't mean you want him writing the software that controls the national nuclear launch system. :P
Quoting 61. Xyrus2000:



So is a lawyer, but that doesn't mean you want him writing the software that controls the national nuclear launch system. :P

Good point. So, we would have to look at who would be stupid enough to put lawyer in charge of writing the software that controls the national nuclear launch system, and then, we would have to look at who was stupid enough to put the stupid person that put a lawyer in charge of writing the software that controls the national nuclear launch system. So, we have to figure out where the stupidity started.
I think I will just start aimlessly and stupidly walk the earth, at least I'll fit in. Hey look, there's one of those crazy environmentalist trying to save us from ourselves. Haha, what a fool.
warm winter in florida? not good for the summer ZIKA outbreak
Well January has been notably cold in France (mean temp about 2 C below the mean 1981-2010), but also very dry (Corsica I. begs to differ). We need more rain in the coming months to avoid a drought this summer/fall, like the one last year. Temperature/precip, deviation from the mean 1981-2010, for January 2017:

Data from Meteo-France.
The pattern just changed, and now temps are mild everywhere. On January 31, some places in SW France have recorded temperatures slightly in excess of 20 C for the first time this year. It looks like spring has arrived today, with most of France recording temps above 10 C at the moment (it's early afternoon here).

Watching windstorms now (did a new blog about it). Currently, strong winds in NW France (Britanny) and SW UK (gusts in excess of 100 kilometers per hour in some places by the coast), but they'll likely be even stronger tomorrow in NW France.

- North Atlantic Low Spawns Monster NW Storm-swell
Coastalwatch.com - Feb 2.
- Snow storm to hit the Alps this weekend
Avorinet.com - Feb 2.
- Storm Doris update
Express.co.uk - Feb 2.
Quoting 47. Patrap:

Apollo 11 Saturn V Launch Camera E-8
That was way cool,
Good Morning, again, after a little bout of insomnia last night and a few overnight posts.

I am still reeling from the current Arctic warming chart posted last evening by Grothar [Edit; and below this comment by 999). When you consider that the last "natural" warming periods on Earth took several hundred years (per fossil records which do not lie) and that we are seeing these same temperature increases presently occur globally within 100 years or less, with more drastic warming rate for the Arctic in just the last 30 years (and the recent back to back warming years now going into 2017), I am beginning to wonder how much short-term C02 reduction is going to make a difference in the Arctic regions.

I am thinking that melting permafrost, and methane release into the Arctic regions, might be an "x" factor, outside and in addition to Co2, that is helping to cause such a rapid deterioration up there. It's irreversible at this point IHMO in term of more rapid Arctic melt (and correlated jet stream amplification). Me thinks that we are in a real heap of trouble in much shorter time-frame than postulated over the past 20 years.
Quoting 23. BaltimoreBrian:

A bizarre story from last week following up on Georgia's tornado disaster: Georgia lawmaker shot behind adult entertainment store while traveling with storm relief cash
LOL, "just a good ol' boy".
Quoting 72. Pipejazz:

LOL, "just a good ol' boy".


I remember a lawmaker with a bunch of cash hidden in his freezer, inside fish stick boxes.
But in brighter "regional" news, the updated US Drought Monitor just issued shows that Mother Nature has made a remarkable dent in our pervasive "exceptional" drought status for California and other parts of the US in recent weeks over this very rainy/snowy Winter for many regions ; we are burning up but have some short-term water relief to cool us down through the Spring...........................

Current U.S. Drought Monitor

And more rain and precip headed into the Pacific NW and California courtesy of that strong West-Pac low off the Coast:



Here is an article from 2015 related to the permafrost issue from Climate Central: Co2 from melt is also a huge issue (in addition to methane):

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/how-alaskas-pe rmafrost-could-melt-19779


About one quarter of the land in the Northern Hemisphere is permafrost, or ground that stays frozen for at least two years. Some of it has been in that frozen state for thousands of years, locking up an amount of carbon that is more than double what is currently in the Earth’s atmosphere. But with temperatures in the Arctic rising at twice the rate of the planet as a whole, permafrost across the region is beginning to thaw, releasing that carbon from its icy confines.





Quoting 62. washingaway:


Good point. So, we would have to look at who would be stupid enough to put lawyer in charge of writing the software that controls the national nuclear launch system, and then, we would have to look at who was stupid enough to put the stupid person that put a lawyer in charge of writing the software that controls the national nuclear launch system. So, we have to figure out where the stupidity started.


You'd come to find that it's more than just stupidity. You'd find apathy, incompetence, greed, and probably many other factors.

The journey from where you were to where you are is rarely a straight and narrow road.
Never got below 40 here in Longwood for a low this Winter and it appears that this years Winter might be done here in FL as temps going into mid February are forecast to be 75 to 80. Once the end of February comes then the chances of cold Arctic air moving into FL become very low not to say that it can't happen as it has in the past but overall chances are low past February 15 here in C & S FL.

We had some lows in December and January that were in the upper 70's at night folks not during the day here in Orlando! Even hit 90 to 91 3 times just before Christmas at my location!

Now onto El-Nino it appears we will be nearing 1C across Nino 3.4 come the start of April. El-Nino isn't wasting anytime at all in its re appearance.


Quoting 71. ILwthrfan:


Sure, why not cut off federal funds for one of the premier research institutions in the world? It seems the right to spew hatred, and racist, bigoted and misogynistic viewpoints for someone who is not even an American citizen 'trumps' that fact. Scientific research does not seem to be one of the priorities of the new administration, unfortunately.

On the weather front, yes, bring on the snow and rain! We need it to clear out the 'haze'. A couple of days ago I missed a bus and walked a couple of miles, the air was pretty bad. The next day I read that Salt Lake City on that day (Tuesday) had the worst air quality in the country. Ick!
Quoting 77. Xyrus2000:



You'd come to find that it's more than just stupidity. You'd find apathy, incompetence, greed, and probably many other factors.

The journey from where you were to where you are is rarely a straight and narrow road.

I'm with you, stupidity is a commodity, bought and sold on the free market. However, there are people that actually believe the carp that they barf. Earth is only 6,000 years old and dinosaur bones were put on earth to test our faith.
Careful with the Title of the Article here, Steve Bannon has had several discussions in 2016 as to his view points on the direction our Country could be heading towards...Scaring responses from the man indeed.

Steve Bannon: 'We're going to war in the South China Sea ... no doubt'

"We're going to war in the South China Sea in five to 10 years, he said in March 2016. There's no doubt about that. They're taking their sandbars and making basically stationary aircraft carriers and putting missiles on those. They come here to the United States in front of our face and you understand how important face is and say it's an ancient territorial sea."

SOURCE: THE GUARDIAN

It would be interesting to study how the Chinese are maintaining their Islands vs. rising sea levels. I would assume they would be investing in an ever struggling battle trying to sustain what they had just built above sea level within just a few years down the road.
Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:

Never got below 40 here in Longwood for a low this Winter and it appears that this years Winter might be done here in FL as temps going into mid February are forecast to be 75 to 80. Once the end of February comes then the chances of cold Arctic air moving into FL become very low not to say that it can't happen as it has in the past but overall chances are low past February 15 here in C & S FL.

We had some lows in December and January that were in the upper 70's at night folks not during the day here in Orlando! Even hit 90 to 91 3 times just before Christmas at my location!

Now onto El-Nino it appears we will be nearing 1C across Nino 3.4 come the start of April. El-Nino isn't wasting anytime at all in its re appearance.





March 3, 1980 comes to mind. 32F in Miami. Widespread teens to low 20s in northern peninsula
Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:

Never got below 40 here in Longwood for a low this Winter and it appears that this years Winter might be done here in FL as temps going into mid February are forecast to be 75 to 80. Once the end of February comes then the chances of cold Arctic air moving into FL become very low not to say that it can't happen as it has in the past but overall chances are low past February 15 here in C & S FL.

We had some lows in December and January that were in the upper 70's at night folks not during the day here in Orlando! Even hit 90 to 91 3 times just before Christmas at my location!

Now onto El-Nino it appears we will be nearing 1C across Nino 3.4 come the start of April. El-Nino isn't wasting anytime at all in its re appearance.





Longest freeze free period of record in January here in DC but it was more steady rather than intense warmth so January was only the 12'th warmest in the 140 year POR. 6F above normal though. And I still have lettuce in the garden. Peter Rabbit has been more of a problem than cold this winter. At least Bambi hasn't visited.

Winter is definitely not done here in DC, expecting normal to cool conditions this weekend and a moderate arctic blast next weekend. February is the snowiest month in the Mid Atlantic.
Quoting 78. StormTrackerScott:

Never got below 40 here in Longwood for a low this Winter and it appears that this years Winter might be done here in FL as temps going into mid February are forecast to be 75 to 80. Once the end of February comes then the chances of cold Arctic air moving into FL become very low not to say that it can't happen as it has in the past but overall chances are low past February 15 here in C & S FL.

We had some lows in December and January that were in the upper 70's at night folks not during the day here in Orlando! Even hit 90 to 91 3 times just before Christmas at my location!

Now onto El-Nino it appears we will be nearing 1C across Nino 3.4 come the start of April. El-Nino isn't wasting anytime at all in its re appearance.





The Gulf Stream is still in overdrive. 1-3 C above average with some places off the Carolina coasts near 5C ...





20 years from now FL is going to really going to start to see some escalating trends with sea level rise and that eventual Hurricane that barrels ashore over 95F water.



Quoting 81. ILwthrfan:

Careful with the Title of the Article here, Steve Bannon has had several discussions in 2016 as to his view points on the direction our Country could be heading towards...Scaring responses from the man indeed.

Steve Bannon: 'We're going to war in the South China Sea ... no doubt'

%u201CWe%u2019re going to war in the South China Sea in five to 10 years,%u201D he said in March 2016. %u201CThere%u2019s no doubt about that. They%u2019re taking their sandbars and making basically stationary aircraft carriers and putting missiles on those. They come here to the United States in front of our face %u2013 and you understand how important face is %u2013 and say it%u2019s an ancient territorial sea.%u201D


It would be interesting to study how the Chinese are maintaining their Islands vs. rising sea levels. I would assume they would be investing in an ever struggling battle trying to sustain what they had just built above sea level within just a few years down the road.



Tech note: Setting up for the Beijing Olympics, a reporter noted "Yesterday those two thousand dancers had green on, now the yellow looks much better. Is it lighting?
Director "No, we had their measurements so we ordered new outfits for everyone"
Reporter " They made and fixed them overnight? That's impossible"
Director "No. We just put thousands of people to work and do it"

Unlike America having millions out of work and loosing islands to sea level rise, China can probably stay ahead of the storm.
Millions of people out of work? 1977 Employment levels ? Source: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Forbes magazine has proof that it is involuntary and not due to retirement.

I hope President Trump can atleast partially fix both the horrible employment rate and global warming.
Quoting 70. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning, again, after a little bout of insomnia last night and a few overnight posts.

I am still reeling from the current Arctic warming chart posted last evening by Grothar [Edit; and below this comment by 999). When you consider that the last "natural" warming periods on Earth took several hundred years (per fossil records which do not lie) and that we are seeing these same temperature increases presently occur globally within 100 years or less, with more drastic warming rate for the Arctic in just the last 30 years (and the recent back to back warming years now going into 2017), I am beginning to wonder how much short-term C02 reduction is going to make a difference in the Arctic regions.

I am thinking that melting permafrost, and methane release into the Arctic regions, might be an "x" factor, outside and in addition to Co2, that is helping to cause such a rapid deterioration up there. It's irreversible at this point IHMO in term of more rapid Arctic melt (and correlated jet stream amplification). Me thinks that we are in a real heap of trouble in much shorter time-frame than postulated over the past 20 years.


What's going on in the Arctic now is mostly "weather" or general circulation changes, not brute warming from C02. As such, the cold is distributed elsewhere. The world is record warm because there isn't as much cold to go around (because of AGW) but 30F departures in the arctic are mostly because the cold is elsewhere, not gone.

What is driving the general circulation changes would be an interesting research topic. The arctic warming on average for the past 30 years has been driven by C02 and AGW and positive feedbacks from ice loss and from increased ocean heat transport into the arctic, The gross increase in Atmospheric heat transport is new, not previously anticipated , and possibly transient.

Or possibly not if the Arctic Ocean can stay ice free well into boreal autumn and a single polar vortex forms over Siberia with strong cross polar flow from the Pacific across to the Atlantic, or if a second lobe parks over Southern Canada and strong cross polar flow from Atlantic to Pacific develops and persists. Please not this paragraph is unreferreed speculation,hypothesis, far from theory!! GWV
Quoting 72. Pipejazz:

LOL, "just a good ol' boy".
I guess he "got what he deserved" since he was trying to help with recovery from a storm enhanced by climate change. More anti-government sentiment? (snark)
The Human induced warming globally due to Humans burning fossil Fuels to power our societies, continues,

unabated.



georgevandenberghe9:55 AM EST on February 02, 2017

I agree with your points as to "weather" as related to altered jet stream patterns. The related issue we have seen in recent decades are huge cut-off lows that often form over the North Pacific region that cause a "break" in the normally circular jet stream (certainly in NH Winter) which allow prolonged periods of warm flowing air to pool into the Arctic regions from the mid-latitudes.


%uFFFD
Quoting 86. georgevandenberghe:



What's going on in the Arctic now is mostly "weather" or general circulation changes, not brute warming from C02. As such, the cold is distributed elsewhere. The world is record warm because there isn't as much cold to go around (because of AGW) but 30F departures in the arctic are mostly because the cold is elsewhere, not gone.

What is driving the general circulation changes would be an interesting research topic. The arctic warming on average for the past 30 years has been driven by C02 and AGW and positive feedbacks from ice loss and from increased ocean heat transport into the arctic, The gross increase in Atmospheric heat transport is new, not previously anticipated , and possibly transient.

Or possibly not if the Arctic Ocean can stay ice free well into boreal autumn and a single polar vortex forms over Siberia with strong cross polar flow from the Pacific across to the Atlantic, or if a second lobe parks over Southern Canada and strong cross polar flow from Atlantic to Pacific develops and persists. Please not this paragraph is unreferreed speculation,hypothesis, far from theory!! GWV


Are you here to BS the flow and whitewash AGW post?

To state the Arctic warming is a natural event..is not Science,..it is GOP derp.

I mean every time someone posts a garden related post, or a local frost , or anything that tickles yer
expertise voice, you jam in to chime in about D.C.'s facts and fables.

It wear's thin on the sentient ones here.


Thanx
Quoting 46. BaltimoreBrian:

Groundhog day comes from Candlemas Day, February 2nd, which in medieval calendars was the 40th and final day of Christmas. Winter in medieval calendars was defined as the shortest 91 days of the year (November 7 - February 3), so Candlemas was conflated with the end of winter. That early in the year there must have been a lot of disappointment!


It is near the end of the low light period for greenhouse managers. Plants grow slowly because of short days in the period from mid November to early February but you can also take a more relaxed attitude to heat control during the day since the sun is weak. Second week of February this starts changing fast, plants respond to longer days but you also have to ventilate quickly when the sun comes out or the plants will overheat.

Eliot Coleman who wrote a book "The Four Season Garden" in the early 90s about winter gardening in Maine, calls the short day period, The Prosephene period.. where growth is sharply reduced because of daylength.

That said the phenomenon is not as pronounced here in DC at 38.7N. I get spinach growth in midwinter during warm periods whereas even in his grow tunnels it stops during early winter darkness. I don't use grow tunnels this far south, temperature management is too difficult.
Washington Post
Beyond the extreme’: Scientists marvel at ‘increasingly non-natural’ Arctic warmth
2016 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic, and 2017 has picked up right where it left off. “Arctic extreme (relative) warmth continues,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics, tweeted on Wednesday, referring to January’s temperatures.
Veteran Arctic climate scientists are stunned.

“[A]fter studying the Arctic and its climate for three and a half decades, I have concluded that what has happened over the last year goes beyond even the extreme,” wrote Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., in an essay for Earth magazine.

At the North Pole, the mercury has rocketed to near the melting point twice since November, and another huge flux of warmth is projected by models next week. Their simulations predict some places in the high Arctic will rise over 50 degrees above normal.


Also, editing a bad post to a single period only removes the original from view, the original remains there in the server head.
Quoting 92. Patrap:



Are you here to BS th fllow and whitewash AGW post?

To state the Arctic warming is a natual event..is not Science..it is GOP derp.

I mean every time someone posts a garden related post, or a local frost , or anything that tickles yer
expertise voice, you jam in to chime in about D.C.'s facts and fables.

It wears thin on the sentient ones here.


Thanx


I warned it was speculation. I stated my concern about an unanticipated general circulation change which could make ice free arctic and significant winter weather as well as climate change, a reality not anticipated with simple radiative forcing arguments.

Mods, I try to be reasonable but if I am off topic and distracting, don't hesitate to call me out just because I'm nice and not inflammatory. The worst criticism when a mistake happens is none. Constructive is better than destructive but destructive is better than silence.

Quoting 95. Patrap:

Also, editing a bad post to a single period only removes the original from view, the original remains there in the server head.


Mine was bad. I hit post rather than the intended cancel. Not including a period caused the delete to not take and I really wanted to get rid of this one, it was offensive.
We have oodles of ram for personal blogs,

Ive written 450 in 11 ears.

Try it, you'll reach more than here, easily.

Winter in Central Florida has been more like late spring/early summer. It seems like a record number of ponies & horses have been body clipped. Saw a little gray circus pony freshly clipped yesterday. Busterpony is about ready for another clipping. It's pretty unheard of to be shaving them like this in February, just to keep them comfortable. Also saw more horses and ponies with heat stroke late fall and this winter than ever. A handful died locally...all of those that I knew were owned by devout climate change deniers that refuse to shave them because in their mind climate change isn't happening & they wouldn't grow the coat if they didn't need it.

Some hay farmers in Florida managed to get a fourth cutting...third year ever. Really helped make up for the mostly lost third cutting across the Carolinas.


Brevard County Gov
‏@BrevardCo_FL

Our Natural Resources Dept. began a dune replacement project that will repair dune line in South Beaches affected by #HurricaneMatthew!!!

Never have seem more green here on Feb 2, as it looks and feels more like Late March.


Im plowing the Garden with the roto tiller this weekend.
Lots of agricultural regions across the world, and certainly in the large United States, are going to suffer due to excessive warming issue while other regions, perhaps further to the North, are going to benefit with expanded or new growing seasons for crops that previously did not grow there. A double edge sword when our local North Florida Met (for North Florida/South Georgia) noted on the evening weather yesterday that these warm temps have implications for the GA Peach crop; he said they actually need a few days of freezing/near freezing temps in Winter to bring out their sweetness when ready for harvest in the Spring. The same could probably be said with respect to the Florida orange crops.


Effect Of Climate Change On Agriculture: Droughts, Heat Waves Cut Global Cereal Harvests By 10 Percent In 50 Years
7 January 2016, 8:40 pm EST By Alyssa Navarro Tech Tim



As average global temperatures begin to rise due to human activity, scientists say the drastic effects of climate change continue to take effect all over the world.
One of the most severely affected sectors is the field of agriculture. In the past decades, extreme weather conditions caused by climate change have disrupted global food production.
"The food system is already stressed in many ways," said Professor Navin Ramankutty of the University of British Columbia, an expert on global food security and sustainability.
With the adverse effects of climate change, Ramankutty said the phenomenon is becoming an additional stressor to global food production.
The Effects Of Climate Change On Global Cereal Harvests
Ramankutty is the senior author of a new study featured in the journal Nature, which examined the link between weather-related disasters and food production.
Along with a team of researchers from UBC and McGill University, Ramankutty found that extreme heat waves and droughts have reduced global cereal harvests such as maize, wheat and rice by 10 percent in a span of 50 years.
DiscoverDroughtHarvestFood industryFood systems
The impact persists even in areas where farming is technologically advanced, researchers said.
In the study, the team looked into the "fertilizing effect" in which high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could have visible effects on crops, an effect that could outweigh the damage caused by droughts and heat waves.

Ads by Kiosked
Ramankutty and his colleagues analyzed records that contained national food production of 16 different cereal crops in 177 countries, and compared the effects of 2,800 weather disasters that occurred from 1964 to 2007.
After evaluating their data, the team created a detailed snapshot of how extreme weather conditions affected global cereal harvests.
In North America, Europe and Australia, droughts and heat waves had both caused an average reduction in cereal harvests by about 20 percent. They also found that the average reduction in cereal harvests caused by droughts and heat waves increased from 6.7 percent in the mid-1980s to 13.7 during more recent years.

much more:,..
Quoting 94. Patrap:

Washington Post
Beyond the extreme’: Scientists marvel at ‘increasingly non-natural’ Arctic warmth
2016 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic, and 2017 has picked up right where it left off. “Arctic extreme (relative) warmth continues,” Ryan Maue, a meteorologist with WeatherBell Analytics, tweeted on Wednesday, referring to January’s temperatures.
Veteran Arctic climate scientists are stunned.


SIGH!!
Quoting 86. georgevandenberghe:



What's going on in the Arctic now is mostly "weather" or general circulation changes, not brute warming from C02.

Yes it is. The name is Arctic Amplification. It entails circulation changes with certain characteristics (rendering my archive knowledge useless).
Who was amazed at the amount of energy that was released from such a small pack of batteries being crushed at Tesla' Lab on PBS's Nova show last night? I was!
Quoting 101. weathermanwannabe:

Lots of agricultural regions across the world, and certainly in the large United States, are going to suffer due to excessive warming issue while other regions, perhaps further to the North, are going to benefit with expanded or new growing seasons for crops that previously did not grow there. A double edge sword when our local North Florida Met (for North Florida/South Georgia) noted on the evening weather yesterday that these warm temps have implications for the GA Peach crop; he said they actually need a few days of freezing/near freezing temps in Winter to bring out their sweetness when ready for harvest in the Spring. The same could probably be said with respect to the Florida orange crops.


The hazard for peaches is actually much worse if they don't get chilling. They won't leaf out properly and
even prior to AGW this was a known hazard in the southern edge of peach cultivation areas.
And you are right, oranges color better and have better flavor when exposed to a little cooling.

A shift of good growing conditions north into the Canadian boreal forest will not be beneficial. Soils there are very poor and the area is underlain with rock.

Quoting 102. Patrap:



Effect Of Climate Change On Agriculture: Droughts, Heat Waves Cut Global Cereal Harvests By 10 Percent In 50 Years
7 January 2016, 8:40 pm EST By Alyssa Navarro Tech Tim



As average global temperatures begin to rise due to human activity, scientists say the drastic effects of climate change continue to take effect all over the world.
One of the most severely affected sectors is the field of agriculture. In the past decades, extreme weather conditions caused by climate change have disrupted global food production.
"The food system is already stressed in many ways," said Professor Navin Ramankutty of the University of British Columbia, an expert on global food security and sustainability.
With the adverse effects of climate change, Ramankutty said the phenomenon is becoming an additional stressor to global food production.
The Effects Of Climate Change On Global Cereal Harvests
Ramankutty is the senior author of a new study featured in the journal Nature, which examined the link between weather-related disasters and food production.
Along with a team of researchers from UBC and McGill University, Ramankutty found that extreme heat waves and droughts have reduced global cereal harvests such as maize, wheat and rice by 10 percent in a span of 50 years.
DiscoverDroughtHarvestFood industryFood systems
The impact persists even in areas where farming is technologically advanced, researchers said.
In the study, the team looked into the "fertilizing effect" in which high levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could have visible effects on crops, an effect that could outweigh the damage caused by droughts and heat waves.

Ads by Kiosked
Ramankutty and his colleagues analyzed records that contained national food production of 16 different cereal crops in 177 countries, and compared the effects of 2,800 weather disasters that occurred from 1964 to 2007.
After evaluating their data, the team created a detailed snapshot of how extreme weather conditions affected global cereal harvests.
In North America, Europe and Australia, droughts and heat waves had both caused an average reduction in cereal harvests by about 20 percent. They also found that the average reduction in cereal harvests caused by droughts and heat waves increased from 6.7 percent in the mid-1980s to 13.7 during more recent years.

much more:,..


One of my fears is a striking, sudden and extreme midwest drought, unprecedented in the historical record, which just wipes out the U.S. maize (what we call corn) crop. It could happen any year.

GISTEMP Trend (Celsius), 1970-2016. Image source: NASA-GISS / RealClimate.org - 2016 Temperature Records (January 2017).
If we get to a point in the future where droughts become so pervasive (in spite of so much research into gene splicing to produce more drought resistant crops) that water is a huge issue, we might have to transition to a more nut and grain based diet because it takes so much water to grow many of the crop staples we currently eat (lots of fruits and veggies) as well as the water needs for growing livestock.
From post 86

"What's going on in the Arctic now is mostly "weather" or general circulation changes, not brute warming from C02. "

This should have been stated differently . The argument only applies to this winter's extreme warm bursts, not to the overall warming of the past half century which is overwhelmingly AGW driven. The warm bursts may well not recur very often in future years. AGW will persist and get worse whether they do or not. And a second cause of extreme warmth in early to mid boreal autumn occurs because the Arctic Ocean is now unfrozen well into fall. This has changed the autumn climate of the arctic coast indefinitely, every fall will now be much warmer than those 20 years ago. That's different from weather. You can count on it.
Arctic amplification: Temperatures keep getting crazier up north
Feedback loops between record Arctic temperatures and the jet stream may be altering our weather
MARK FISCHETTI, SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN


This article was originally published by Scientific American.

In the past year the climate in the Arctic has at times bordered on the absurd. Temperatures were 30 to 50 degrees Fahrenheit above average in some places during the recent Christmas week. Through November the area of ice-covered ocean in the region reached a record low in seven of 11 months — an unprecedented stretch. More important, perhaps, the difference between Arctic temperatures and those across the midlatitudes of North America, Europe and Asia during 2016 was the smallest ever seen.

That narrowing gap is important to note because it seems to be driving extreme weather in the midlatitudes, from heat waves and droughts to heavy snowfalls. Why is the Arctic so crazy lately, and how strong is the connection to bad weather to its south, where so many people live? Scientific American asked Jennifer Francis, who is a research professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University and has investigated Arctic climate change and its links to weather worldwide since 1994.

[An edited transcript of the interview follows.]

How unusual is the ongoing string of Arctic climate records?

The records are astounding because there are so many of them. The extra warming that is happening up in the Arctic — the “Arctic amplification” — has been the greatest we’ve ever seen. We’ve also seen the lowest sea-ice thickness, and we’ve seen the greatest amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. That one doesn’t usually make headlines but it should; that water vapor comes from more evaporation because there is more exposed, open ocean. Also, a lot more water vapor is being transported northward by big swings in the jet steam. That’s important because water vapor is a greenhouse gas just like carbon dioxide and methane. It traps heat in the atmosphere. That vapor also condenses as droplets we know as clouds, which themselves trap more heat. The vapor is a big part of the amplification story — a big reason the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else.

Does the extra vapor contribute to any sort of feedback loop — conditions that tend to feed upon themselves?

We’re starting to think so. It is directly part of a feedback, in that more loss of sea ice causes more evaporation, which traps more heat, which melts more ice — one of the vicious cycles. But another vicious cycle that may be emerging is that when the Arctic is very warm, we think that is leading to the jet stream taking wavier paths — big northward swings and southward dips. When the jet stream does that, it transports more heat and moisture up into the Arctic, which heats the Arctic more, which make the jet stream even wavier — another vicious cycle related to disappearance of sea ice. During Christmas the North Pole was above freezing — which is crazy for that time of year — and it was related to one of the big swings in the jet stream.

Very recently scientists have begun to more directly link climate change patterns to extreme weather events, which they have typically been reluctant to do. Are the links becoming clearer?

Well, first, warmer temperatures worldwide are adding to heat waves. And more water vapor worldwide is related to the atmosphere being warmer — we have about 7 percent more water vapor in the atmosphere now than we did in the 1950s, which is directly linked to the increase in heavy precipitation events. Drought is also pretty directly related to a warmer atmosphere.

Arctic amplification — [the faster rise of Arctic temperatures than midlatitude temperatures] — may be the most controversial factor. What we think is happening is that amplification is favoring these very wavy patterns in the jet stream. When those waves get large, we tend to see very persistent weather patterns across midlatitudes. The waves tend to move very slowly, and the waves are what create weather we experience. Different parts of those waves tend to favor very stormy patterns, very dry patterns or warm versus cold. So in your neck of the woods, weather conditions are going to hang around longer.

It’s still difficult to unravel the persistent drought in California — what fraction of that is due to general global warming versus more persistent jet stream patterns because the Arctic is warming fast. But that’s where the research is happening right now.

So can we link the California drought to Arctic conditions or the jet stream?

This plays into how natural fluctuations in the climate system in the midlatitudes and the tropics are perhaps being intensified by Arctic warming. A good example — and some studies make this pretty clear — is when sea-surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean tend to put one of these northward swings, or ridges, in the jet stream in particular locations.

In the last few years the patterns have tended to put a ridge near the west coast of North America. That’s a natural thing. Along with that, though, we’ve had very little sea ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic. There’s been a lot of warm air over that region — Alaska has had a lot of record temperatures and a lot of rain. What we think happens is that when there is a ridge forming in a location where Arctic warming can intensify it, that makes the ridge strong and builds it even farther northward. It creates an even bigger wave in the jet stream. You get a stronger ridge over western North America and a stronger southward dip that is farther toward eastern North America.
How unusual is the ongoing string of Arctic climate records?

The records are astounding because there are so many of them. The extra warming that is happening up in the Arctic — the “Arctic amplification” — has been the greatest we’ve ever seen. We’ve also seen the lowest sea-ice thickness, and we’ve seen the greatest amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. That one doesn’t usually make headlines but it should; that water vapor comes from more evaporation because there is more exposed, open ocean. Also, a lot more water vapor is being transported northward by big swings in the jet steam. That’s important because water vapor is a greenhouse gas just like carbon dioxide and methane. It traps heat in the atmosphere. That vapor also condenses as droplets we know as clouds, which themselves trap more heat. The vapor is a big part of the amplification story — a big reason the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else
That 7% mo water Vapor added since the 1950's is in no way a "Natural event".

We continue to add 400,000 tons of CO2 a hour to the biosphere.

How Gasoline Becomes CO2

A gallon turns into 19 pounds?

By Daniel Engber


Last week, Slate published the first installment of the "Green Challenge," a program that helps participants reduce the amount of carbon dioxide they put into the atmosphere. We started by asking people to think about the effects their cars have on the environment: "For each gallon of gas your car burns, it releases about 19 pounds of carbon dioxide." Explainer readers wondered about this statistic: If a gallon of gasoline weighs about 6 pounds, how can it produce three times that much greenhouse gas?

The carbon from the gasoline mixes with oxygen from the air. Gasoline consists mostly of hydrocarbons—chains of carbon encircled by atoms of hydrogen. When the hydrocarbons burn, they break apart and recombine with the air. This reaction produces heat, as well as two chemical byproducts: water and carbon dioxide.

For example, consider a single molecule of octane—a typical hydrocarbon that you'd find in gasoline. Octane consists of eight atoms of carbon and 18 atoms of hydrogen, written as C8H18. If you break down the octane and mix it with enough oxygen (O2), you've got the ingredients—i.e., the atoms of carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen—to make eight molecules of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nine molecules of water (H2O). The eight molecules of CO2 weigh about three times more than the one molecule of octane you started with. That doesn't mean you've violated the law of conservation of mass; instead, you've added the weight of the oxygen from the air to the weight of the carbon from the gasoline. (For a more in-depth discussion of this reaction, click here.)

This reaction gives only a general sense of what happens when you burn a gallon of gas. First, the combustion that occurs in a car engine doesn't work perfectly, which means not every hydrocarbon gets converted into carbon dioxide and water vapor. Sometimes there's not enough oxygen available to complete the reaction, in which case hydrocarbons can be converted into poisonous carbon monoxide (CO). Burning gasoline can also release nitrous oxide and other gases.

Second, gasoline consists of octane along with many other kinds of hydrocarbons. You'll also find additives like surfactants, freezing-point depressants, corrosion inhibitors, and dyes. These nonhydrocarbon additives might make up half a percent of the total composition of the gasoline. There are also differences between winter and summer blends, low- and high-octane, and leaded and unleaded.

Thus, any estimate of the amount of carbon dioxide that comes from a gallon of gas must be based on some assumptions. The Environmental Protection Agency starts with a guess for how many grams of carbon are in each gallon of gas. First, they determine how much carbon is in each particular kind of gasoline, and then they come up with a weighted average based on consumption levels for each variety. Using this method, they estimate that a gallon of gas contains, on average, 2,421 grams of carbon. That's enough to make 8,877 grams of CO2. They multiply that number by 0.99 to account for the carbon that doesn't react fully with the oxygen. Their result: 8,788 grams, or about 19.4 pounds. (The Energy Information Administration gives a slightly higher number—19.564.)
Quoting 112. Patrap:

How unusual is the ongoing string of Arctic climate records?

The records are astounding because there are so many of them. The extra warming that is happening up in the Arctic %u2014 the %u201CArctic amplification%u201D %u2014 has been the greatest we%u2019ve ever seen. We%u2019ve also seen the lowest sea-ice thickness, and we%u2019ve seen the greatest amount of water vapor in the atmosphere. That one doesn%u2019t usually make headlines but it should; that water vapor comes from more evaporation because there is more exposed, open ocean. Also, a lot more water vapor is being transported northward by big swings in the jet steam. That%u2019s important because water vapor is a greenhouse gas just like carbon dioxide and methane. It traps heat in the atmosphere. That vapor also condenses as droplets we know as clouds, which themselves trap more heat. The vapor is a big part of the amplification story %u2014 a big reason the Arctic is warming faster than anywhere else


I have been wondering about mechanisms, not well captured by general circulation models, that could cause runaway arctic warming leading to an ice free WINTER arctic ocean. Much increased heat and water vapor transport over the arctic is one possibility, Another is a general circulation change that results in sinking over the continents and generalized upward motion over the high arctic which would lead to clouds, higher absolute humidities and much less radiative loss from the surface. None of the major general circulation models maintain an ice free winter arctic ocean however in 100 year integrations. I do not know what they do about the statistics of jet stream eddies which modern GCMs easily resolve, so should handle. Jet stream eddy statistics exhibit a lot of low frequency (decadal) variability which is not well understood.

REALLY makes me wish I were a grad student again!
From Apocalypse 4 Real:

On January 5, 2017, NOAA ESRL published the preliminary October, 2016 global methane mean - a new high of 1849.7 ppb. It banged the top of the chart, with the highest recorded CH4 since July, 1983.

BigDukeNOLA7 back on line on the wu Big Loop

It looks like the Trump science shutdown has been extended to NOAA satellite loops -- my download of the Rainbow loop has been in progress for about 20 minutes and is apparently at a standstill. SAD!!
Quoting 118. CaneFreeCR:

It looks like the Trump science shutdown has been extended to NOAA satellite loops -- my download of the Rainbow loop has been in progress for about 20 minutes and is apparently at a standstill. SAD!!


Ive had difficulty loading the NOAA Global Climate Change Indicator one as well this morning.
President Trump, Military Split on Climate Change

NORFOLK, VA —
A nondescript metal box at the end of an unremarkable pier in Norfolk, Va. is one key to why the U.S. Navy is concerned about climate change.

For nine decades, the Sewells Point tide gauge or its ancestors have been recording the sea level off Pier 6 at Naval Station Norfolk.

The story it tells is clear. Between naturally sinking land and global warming driven sea level rise, the water is a half-meter higher than it was at the beginning of the last century.

That’s creating problems at the world’s largest naval base.


Link
Currently there is about a 30 degree difference between north Louisiana and south La..
Quoting 115. georgevandenberghe:


I have been wondering about mechanisms, not well captured by general circulation models, that could cause runaway arctic warming leading to an ice free WINTER arctic ocean. Much increased heat and water vapor transport over the arctic is one possibility, Another is a general circulation change that results in sinking over the continents and generalized upward motion over the high arctic which would lead to clouds, higher absolute humidities and much less radiative loss from the surface. None of the major general circulation models maintain an ice free winter arctic ocean however in 100 year integrations. (...)

Don't forget the methane, see Xandra's comment.
All the feedback mechanisms are adding into the equation now - the models will change their "minds" very quickly after the total meltout we're gonna see next summer, my bottom Dollar on that.
Quoting 124. EmsiNasklug:


Don't forget the methane, see Xandra's comment.
All the feedback mechanisms are adding into the equation now - the models will change their "minds" very quickly after the total meltout we're gonna see next summer, my bottom Dollar on that.



No they won't necessarily. Many of them have total summer meltouts (except for a narrow strip on the canadian coast) by the 2020s or 2030s. It refreezes in fall similar to what we're seeing now but a little later.
I like going here to discuss weather.... see very smart and informative peoples opinions on our climate and weather... I dont come here for politics.... I see enough of that daily on my social media.... I would hate for this blog to become like that...

Kinda crazy how balmy Florida has been...
98W
130. elioe
Quoting 124. EmsiNasklug:


Don't forget the methane, see Xandra's comment.
All the feedback mechanisms are adding into the equation now - the models will change their "minds" very quickly after the total meltout we're gonna see next summer, my bottom Dollar on that.



How do the "minds" change quickly? Are parameterizations constantly being adjusted to fit historical data? I would have thought, that the models should have a non-changing code. Changing the initial conditions alone should not cause drastic changes. If those models have produced winter ice cover for the Arctic even in late 21st century radiative conditions, they should do it in current conditions, even if initialized from a summertime ice-free Arctic state.

Other than the model issue... well, models have failed so far. Year-round icefree Arctic is possible very soon. But my best guess is, that by the time models get improved enough to show all the feedbacks, Arctic is already in that state.
Quoting 128. Cyclone2016:

I like going here to discuss weather.... see very smart and informative peoples opinions on our climate and weather... I dont come here for politics.... I see enough of that daily on my social media.... I would hate for this blog to become like that...

Kinda crazy how balmy Florida has been...



It looks like the blog has been cleaned up a bit. There are so many online news blogs and forums where members can discuss politics all day.

And yes, the weather is nice a warm again. We are expecting a high of 80 degrees here in Fort Myers. It got a little chilly for a few days (for me), but now it's just the way I like it.
Lows around 60 with a highs around 80 with low humidity is just about perfect.
Quoting 106. georgevandenberghe:



The hazard for peaches is actually much worse if they don't get chilling. They won't leaf out properly and
even prior to AGW this was a known hazard in the southern edge of peach cultivation areas.
And you are right, oranges color better and have better flavor when exposed to a little cooling.

A shift of good growing conditions north into the Canadian boreal forest will not be beneficial. Soils there are very poor and the area is underlain with rock.




At approximately 45 degrees latitude here in Helena, two years ago I put in a peach tree (Costco was selling them so I figured they musta been researched fairly well). Last year I harvested about 24 peaches off it, medium-sized and delicious. I'll know in a few months if the tree survived this year's cold.

What with the Arctic ice to be gone in a couple-three years, I am starting several citrus trees... by the time they are ready to go in the ground, I reckon that they will survive here.
Watch This Huge 'Waterfall' of Lava Pour Into the Ocean
The lava flow is a result of Hawaiian land collapsing on December 31.

Link
In 'News & Blogs' > 'Recent News Stories' I seem to have no new stories after January 26.
Anyone else with this? Have they moved?
Thanks
Quoting 129. Skyepony:

98W



Mother of Cold Tops :0
Quoting 101. weathermanwannabe:

Lots of agricultural regions across the world, and certainly in the large United States, are going to suffer due to excessive warming issue while other regions, perhaps further to the North, are going to benefit with expanded or new growing seasons for crops that previously did not grow there. A double edge sword when our local North Florida Met (for North Florida/South Georgia) noted on the evening weather yesterday that these warm temps have implications for the GA Peach crop; he said they actually need a few days of freezing/near freezing temps in Winter to bring out their sweetness when ready for harvest in the Spring. The same could probably be said with respect to the Florida orange crops.
With these warm temps, early blossom/budding are at a much greater risk of a freeze which would do a lot more than reduce sweetness.
Quoting 132. MontanaZephyr:



At approximately 45 degrees latitude here in Helena, two years ago I put in a peach tree (Costco was selling them so I figured they musta been researched fairly well). Last year I harvested about 24 peaches off it, medium-sized and delicious. I'll know in a few months if the tree survived this year's cold.

What with the Arctic ice to be gone in a couple-three years, I am starting several citrus trees... by the time they are ready to go in the ground, I reckon that they will survive here.


Peach buds winterkill at between 0F and -20F depending on variety. "Reliance", developed in the 60s is the hardiest one I know and it grows north to New Hampshire.

If you can protect from temperatures below 28F, you probably CAN grow lemons. I protect mine by putting them in a minimally heated garage.. as close to freezing as possible is optimal because at refrigerator temperatures they don't need light. But my winter lows are between 5F and 15F depending on season. I'm skeptical about still being in "Zone 7.. 0-10F winter lows"
Looks like North and Central Cal going to bear the next brunt of storms.

Quoting 156. CaneFreeCR:

The link takes me to the master page for Ricky's blog, not to the NYT. But I guess climate change protests are an endless loop, so ......
Thanks CaneFreeCR--you'd think I'd never linked an article before. Odd. It did the same thing on the Cat6 blog where it links back to Cat6, and on my blog, linking back to my blog. Hmmmm. Be interesting to see where the link links to this time. Better paste it below. Mind the gap in 'scientists'.

A Scientists' March on Washington Is a Bad Idea

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/31/opinion/a-scie ntists-march-on-washington-is-a-bad-idea.html?_r=0
Quoting 128. Cyclone2016:

I like going here to discuss weather.... see very smart and informative peoples opinions on our climate and weather... I dont come here for politics.... I see enough of that daily on my social media.... I would hate for this blog to become like that...

Kinda crazy how balmy Florida has been...


And I think this blog can do nicely without concern trolling.
That low off the NW Conus coast is deepening and now down to 988 millibars:







Quoting 128. Cyclone2016:

I like going here to discuss weather.... see very smart and informative peoples opinions on our climate and weather... I dont come here for politics.... I see enough of that daily on my social media.... I would hate for this blog to become like that...

Kinda crazy how balmy Florida has been...

Seems like a political statement about the governor (snark)
California snowpack reaches 173% of average, replenishing a third of state's 'snow-deficit'

Link
Quoting 141. BaltimoreBrian:

Thanks CaneFreeCR--you'd think I'd never linked an article before. Odd. It did the same thing on the Cat6 blog where it links back to Cat6, and on my blog, linking back to my blog. Hmmmm. Be interesting to see where the link links to this time. Better paste it below. Mind the gap in 'scientists'.

A Scientists' March on Washington Is a Bad Idea

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/31/opinion/a-scie ntists-march-on-washington-is-a-bad-idea.html?_r=0
Thanks, Brian -- that worked. However, I disagree with him about the effectiveness of the march -- for the same reasons that I think the Women's March was so effective, in getting the issue right out in the public eye in such a way that it could not be brushed under the rug again. Trump can say all he wants about science, or about women, but thanks to coverage of the march they can't ignore that action or its message.
147. elioe
Quoting 141. BaltimoreBrian:



If I've understood it correctly, the link must contain the "http://" or "https://" part. Otherwise the blog, into which the comment is going, will have its directory in front of the web address of the link. Like, if I tried now to provide a link to "url.com", the link would be to "www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/url.com". To provide the correct link, I would have to put "http://url.com" into the URL box.
Quoting 121. RobertWC:

President Trump, Military Split on Climate Change

NORFOLK, VA —
A nondescript metal box at the end of an unremarkable pier in Norfolk, Va. is one key to why the U.S. Navy is concerned about climate change.

For nine decades, the Sewells Point tide gauge or its ancestors have been recording the sea level off Pier 6 at Naval Station Norfolk.

The story it tells is clear. Between naturally sinking land and global warming driven sea level rise, the water is a half-meter higher than it was at the beginning of the last century.

That’s creating problems at the world’s largest naval base.


Link


Locals in Norfolk joke of scheduling meetings around the tides as flooding affects traffic.

It is no joke. It is real and "raised flower beds" or "earthen burms" are becoming normal.

While the military can build up against it, the last administration cut military funding in "sequestration"

Tech note: Richmond VA, which is 110 miles inland from Norfolk, was the old beach line a few hundred million years ago.

What we need is another ice age.
Quoting 148. SteveDa1:



13:00 Eastern Today 960mb low off Ireland coast

13:00 Eastern Tomorrow 959mb low off Iceland coast

13:00 Eastern next Monday 942mb (!!!) low off Iceland coast


Woohoo!

Buoy 62029 (a few hundred kilometers SW of Ireland, W of Britanny) recorded waves 11.5m high today in the afternoon (European time), and a minimum pressure of 965 hPa... In the worst-case scenario (unanticipated bombification of one of the lows, sting jet, something like that) I fear significant damage tomorrow and during the weekend on the French Atl. coast (3 separate windstorms are forecast to hit the coast from Friday to Sunday). Hopefully no bad surprise, and no fatalities nor bad injuries...

Weather: "Red alert" as Storm Doris batters Portugal
PortugalResident.com - Feb 2.
Quoting 144. CaneFreeCR:

Seems like a political statement about the governor (snark)


There were off topic political comments in the blog when he commented. Those comments have sense been deleted.
He didn't just make that statement based off of what is currently being viewed in the blog.
Moderators have cleaned things up trying to keep the focus of the blog on the blog topic or weather and climate.
A good late Thursday post on the Sciencemag site; a solidarity march in Europe by scientists there the same day as the march here:so much for trying to quell or discredit the movement/march.................................... ......

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/02/european-r esearchers-spin-sister-marches-science-least-eight -countries


AMSTERDAM—U.S. cities won’t be the only places where lab coats and science-inspired signs will fill the streets on 22 April. Groups in eight European countries have announced “solidarity marches” in support of the U.S. March for Science, to be held on Earth Day. Some of the rallies will take place on the same day, whereas others don’t yet have a firm date.

Quoting 147. elioe:

If I've understood it correctly, the link must contain the "http://" or "https://" part. Otherwise the blog, into which the comment is going, will have its directory in front of the web address of the link. Like, if I tried now to provide a link to "url.com", the link would be to "www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/url.com". To provide the correct link, I would have to put "http://url.com" into the URL box.
That may be but this was the first time it happened to me after posting thousands of links. Never had a link changed to the blog index of three different blogs before.
The following interview with Climate scientist Ted Scambos from the University of Colorado's National Snow and Ice Data Center provides background information about Antarctica... There is no exotic technology for reference, so I hope the community values are met as the problems are manifest...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guAf2enAuyE
It has been nice here in KEYW. Just two cold air outbreaks so far and only into the upper 50s each time. Really, we need snow cover down to the Ohio River to get much colder, otherwise there's too much air-mass modification along the way. However we DID get gradient wind gusts to 50 mph which kinda ruins the ambiance. In December 2010 I was on duty when we tied the all-time low for the station, 41F. ASOS did not recognize it, as it lasted too short a time; it would've been valid in the days of alcohol-in-glass.
We hit the freezing mark this afternoon in S C IL, but at least it's sunny. ( I guess StL & Spfld groundhogs saw shadows though, so maybe we''ll have a chance to get a 2 week stretch of winter weather?)

Saw article that IL Jan. temps were 5 degrees over normal, so was expecting top 5 minimum, but said only 14th warmest. Certainly one of the warmest I remember, other than the two near zero days after New Year's, but didn't have list of warmer years to compare with.

Back to mid 40s Sun after another sub freeze day tomorrow. 50s and rain Tues, then back below freeze next Thurs, and back to mid 40s next weekend, the yo-yo continues.
Everyone have a safe weather evening; looking a little bumpy for the NW coast tomorrow as the low closes in:


Waylon Jennings with Buddy Holly before Jennings gave up seat on plane that crashed in Iowa February 3, 1959: The day the music died.



The CAB accident report mentions an "inadequate weather briefing" as a secondary contributing factor to the accident.
From ABC News:

Punxsutawney Phil Predicts More Winter

The handlers of Pennsylvania's most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, said the furry rodent has "predicted" six more weeks of winter after seeing his shadow at dawn Thursday.

The top hat-wearing members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club's Inner Circle reveal Phil's forecast every Feb. 2, based on a German legend surrounding Candlemas. The legend says if a furry rodent casts a shadow that day, winter continues. If not, spring comes early.

In reality, Phil's prediction is decided ahead of time by the group on Gobbler's Knob, a tiny hill just outside Punxsutawney about 65 miles northeast of Pittsburgh.

Thousands of people gathered overnight to await the forecast. They were treated to folk music and a Star Wars-themed fireworks display under cloudy skies, with temperatures just below freezing, while they waited.

The groundhog's prediction is typically contained in a short poem, sometimes referencing current events or — when the nearby Pittsburgh Steelers are participating — a comment on the Super Bowl, which usually follows a few days later.

But this year, Phil stayed on message and didn't reference football, President Donald Trump or anything other than the weather.

"It's mighty cold weather, you've been braving. Is it more winter or is it spring that you're craving? Since you've been up all night and starting to tottle, I, Punxsutawney Phil, shall not dawdle," the proclamation read. "My faithful followers, I could clearly see a beautiful, perfect shadow of me. Six more weeks of winter, it shall be!"

Read more here

In 1889, the Groundhog Club of Punxsutawney PA celebrated Groundhog day with a breakfast of creamed groundhog meat on toast.

In 1920, Punxsutawney Phil threatened 60 weeks of winter if he wasn't allowed a drink, according to the Punxsutawney Phil website.
Quoting 134. lepiane:

In 'News & Blogs' > 'Recent News Stories' I seem to have no new stories after January 26.
Anyone else with this? Have they moved?
Thanks

Noticed the same thing. Between that, the on-going blog issues, all blogs recently in extended 'suspended animation', and the recent troubles with the PWSs, I was frankly thinking the site was shut down. Facebook had had no activity at that time, but luckily there was activity on Twitter, with people asking questions (primarily about the problem with the PWS and issues with favorite cities). Someone from WU was responding that they were working on it. The blogs came back, but I don't know if the other issues are fixed. I did not see any inquiries about the lack of recent news stories, though.
6th century BC hedgehog salt shaker from Rhodes, Greece.

165. elioe
92S still poorly organised. If it develops (as models expect), it will be named Carlos.



It threatens Mauritius and Reunion in 4-5 days, as well as the east coast of Madagascar in 6-9 days.
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

6th century BC hedgehog salt shaker from Rhodes, Greece.


Furry creature? I guess that's a hint to take the predictions with a grain of salt! :-)
I'm not surprised that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow. It seem almost every time I look at the weather radar there's another snowstorm over central Pennsylvania. Richmond was cloudy this morning, but sunny this afternoon, so I guess we can't tell how long winter will last here.

If the groundhog sees his shadow winter will drag on for 6 more long weeks, but if he doesn't see his shadow spring is only a month and a half away.
https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/82687362173803315 3
158. BaltimoreBrian

Buddy Holly's Grave 9 7 09 ( 73th Birthday )

Link
171. beell
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

6th century BC hedgehog salt shaker from Rhodes, Greece.




Dachshund Salt and Pepper Shakers
;-))


172. beell
And a bit of winter abandonment in SE Texas

"There were 19 daily records set at the first-order climate sites.
The following is a listing of the records tied or set in September
at College Station (CLL), Galveston (GLS), Hobby Airport (HOU), and
the City of Houston (IAH)".

(appears to be a typo above for the month)


(click for larger image)
NWS Houston/Galveston January 2017 Climate Summary
living in the keys, we look forward to those nights in the 60s and days in the 70s - this has been warmer than desired and i hope it's not a trend that continues into spring/summer - else we'll be dealing with high SSTs and potential for coral bleaching...
also, the Keys have a unique take on GroundHog day - since Phil saw his shadow, we'll have 6 more weeks of beautiful weather. If Phil doesn't see his shadow, we'll also have 6 more weeks of beautiful weather ;-)
beell, I think the hedgehog salt shaker has more character :)
It's official, Illinois temperatures for January were five degrees above normal. Since we average around 32°, a five degree difference means mud on the open ground. We have to keep to the sidewalks and stepping stones lest we track mud into the house, and get mud on everything. So it's nice to get a freeze (Tonight it''s 17° F) so that I can walk anywhere, and not make a mess.
We haven't had any snow for the last few weeks, at least not enough to shovel. Lots of rain, though, about two inches last week.
Raccoons made a hole in a neighbor's roof so I offered to fix it before the next rain, but after the ground freezes... ( I don't want mud on the ladder rungs), so this will be my chance.
Quoting 174. ConchConvert:

also, the Keys have a unique take on GroundHog day - since Phil saw his shadow, we'll have 6 more weeks of beautiful weather. If Phil doesn't see his shadow, we'll also have 6 more weeks of beautiful weather ;-)


I'm planning a visit to the Keys, so I hope it's beautiful then, too. Feb. 17 to 27.
The Congress has forced in Scott Pruitt,
They tried stop it but they blew it,
Now they'll wreck and pollute,
While collecting their loot,
To the environment, they all say screw it!

Scott Pruitt does not like the climate,
It's changing but he flat out denies it,
In spite of the facts,
He calls them all quacks,
And he has alt-facts to justify it!
Quoting 22. elioe:

During some epic blog hole during Matthew, there was talk about creating a backup group for this blog on Facebook for these situations. And this exceeded other blog holes remarkably... but Facebook insists that I should add one friend to my group if I create such... :( And I don't have any WU members as my Facebook friends. Anyone else willing to create such a group?


I'm down. Add me if you want. Shoot me an inbox and I'll give you my Facebook.
181. vis0


Quoting 160. Xandra:
From ABC News:

Punxsutawney Phil Predicts More Winter

The handlers ...[nibbled]

"It's mighty cold weather, you've been braving. Is it more winter or is it spring that you're craving? Since you've been up all night and starting to tottle, I, Punxsutawney Phil, shall not dawdle," the proclamation read. "My faithful followers, I could clearly see a beautiful, perfect shadow of me. Six more weeks of winter, it shall be!"

Read more here



Not replying to Xandra but the stuperstitions and how policies affect yer  wedda 4casts.


Excuse me but winter has not yet begun in the nyc. In the city  projects we've talked (community meetings) 'bout how we;ve (tenants) have never before had to leave the windows open (6-8inchs, 1 per room) so many times. The steam is on yet its ~upper 30s-low  40s (of course better to have stream than none, but it does not feel like a nyc winter)

AS to Patraps earlier post/link its bad enough as to droughts/heat waves  but i don't see taking into account the added mold/flooding in the specifics, only read the words"extreme weather conditions".

Here is why i bring that up.
 


i mention the other side of the (extreme weather) coin 'cause if you put both together as in having both extremes happening closer and closer as in an 8 month severe drought then 18 months later an 6 moth flooding sequence and in 10 years that extreme happens 2 times ITS NOT JUST THE LAND that will NOT PRODUCE but the companies bottom line to people's psyche will be knocked around like being hit by George Foreman's  big swing punches when he was 30, (at age 30 Mr. Foreman began to incorporate his hips into the punches thus much stronger -ouch....2 days later as one recovered in hospital..luckily they where still wild swings..not with nature)

Now if one ONLY looks at GW as leading to ONE side be it drought/heat  OR mold/flooding nature could somewhat cope as certain plants can thrive as to one side or the other of the weather extreme coin hence you see plants that thrive in damp cold areas while other plants that thrive in hot/arid areas...BUT PLANTS like animals do not like harsh swings in weather.  

And to that the stockholders being told , sorry this year is a lose cause the flooding was overwhelming then the next year the stockholders break even and in hoping that the third year is mucho dinero time instead its a 1 in 500 year drought...how are big companies to small united farmers going to get people to invest when their weather forecasts show such wild extreme swings (in the future...some even in the past 10 yrs)  that business compu'r cannot predict when the next "normal" cycle of 5-7 yrs will occur so shareholders can make some money???

Again if you want to know what the weather will be tomorrow you search Wunderground for their 24-48-72 hrs forecasts.  
If you want to know what the weather has been around the world as to weather events/extremes to how weather will be like in a few years read the blogbytes main write-up and the members whom present links / pages that are peer reviewed and explain things through science studies to science findings.
In this manner when extreme weather hits more often your not saying,  but how, why, who knew...gawd why!!!?   
 
Humans are the animal on Earth whose conscience is not connected to the planet.
Therefore we can do as we wish, BUT also understand there are reactions to our actions.  In this case you add certain chemicals into the air and laws of basic physics takes over and as humans sleep these basic laws of physics keep working 24/7.  Ask Patrap how the CO2 level is hanging, it does not take a break UNLESS MAN stops placing more money onto the extracting of more oil instead of more money onto finding true-green energy producers.    Yes we need new ideas so why is not Trump adding more money to areas that develope new ideas as colleges, public schools, laboratories.     If you think money is wasted at any of those (and that's a valid point) then President Trump place your tough watchdogs to watch those that take government funds to develope green energy sources and when the watchdog sees waste (NOT science work that disagrees with the watchdog's viewpoint) report it.  Show the public that 100% of the money invested is being used to create TRUE GREEN power supplies/sources, which in turn makes life healthier (saves money),  and saves consumers money directly as the greener source needs less maintaining of its "engines".  
So far Trump is batting .000 as in batting for the public.  Trump's appointees are not for the people but for the companies,  whose workers think is great till the workers get the bill for; building a WALL,  cleaning up acres from pipeline leaks,  cleanup from extreme weather, payting for the amny hit n miss tries in locating deeper pockets of oil, your health

and much more as in my grandfathers time Trump was called a charlatan. Trump tells ya he's going to help you save 2 dollars, if you invest ONLY ONE dollars every week for a month.
 
Again look at the Carrier deal.  The Carrier company was going to go to President Obama in early January to save 650 jobs at a cost to the public of a ~million dollars in reinvesting in company and businesses near-by.  Here come President-Elect Trump acting all big n tough calls Carrier saying you'd better stay if you move to Mexico Trump will add taxation w/o representation of 20% on Carrier units meanwhile his lawyers made a 2 ( 3 million in benefits by 2-rd year) deal that the public also pays.  So Trump has the public paying more for less jobs.  
THAT DIFFERENCE???  The hoopla Trumpeters did.   Reminds my of NYC Mayor Koch whom always had 20-40 clowns yelling applauding him at subway stations (look at clips during Koch's reelections see the same 20-40 people at times wearing the same outfit over 4 days yelling Koch! number 1 or 4 more years) while city rime kept going up ... and it fooled the public...BTW Guliani did the same thing during his 2nd term bid except he stayed near courthouses/Precincts so police or his  tough guys kept anti-guliani people across the block behind official court barriers

By the nature of science, an honest scientists wants the reader to learn more not go to sites that tell you less observations or that scientists are tricking the public but do not include up-to-date science finding just theories which where first brought up 10, 20-50 years ago and proven to be incorrect.
 
 
P.S.#1 one sadly many good / middle of the road Americans are being hoodwinked and a drawing as above to turn them more towards the ATL right as the drawing makes it seem they are nut...now if the jacket pocket name tag has HELLO my name is Scott Pruitt. On my FB page i said that was like putting Custard in charge of helping Indians or Madoff in charge of Wall street...i see one similar remark was created by reporters.
 
P.S.#2  glad ya didn't show the other side of the frozen buttock guy, he's wearing chaps.
Quoting 159. BaltimoreBrian:

The Washington Monument's lightning rod worked too well, melting down from repeated lightning strikes




It's kind of like that Elton John song Rocket Man, where he sings, "All that science I don't understand, it's just my job five days a week" Here is yet another study looking at luminosity and ice but not what changes in orbit mean to lightning patterns. This study of the long past is relevant to today because as an electrical element in clouds that CO2 has, the reasons for the glaciations is dependent on an electrical forcing as well. Reason for glacial associated with milkanovitch cycle incorrect as stated in this study, but the study admits that the glaciations are not consistent with the radiation. It's in reality about added ice from precip when more solar radiation goes to the northern hemisphere with more land, as 90% of lightning occurs over land. With changes in global electrical currents from that lightning comes more ice and snow. Also changes in the intensity of the closing isobars of the earth emf changes how storms and wind patterns behave as capacitive couplings are disrupted as they head toward the poles. How that occurs is again related to global lightning, which has a hemispheric bias towards the northern hemisphere with its greater land.Link
Quoting 164. BaltimoreBrian:

6th century BC hedgehog salt shaker from Rhodes, Greece.




Interesting story about this. They would put it outside on January 2. If it cast a shadow there would be another 40 years of the Peloponnesian war.


shows a tropical storm east of Visayas in 48 hours.
Came across this post which correlates well with Bob's post.

Quote: Later during the year, the models indicate substantial chances for a return to El Niño conditions (37% in August – October 2017), but note that ENSO forecasts beyond the Southern Hemisphere autumn are known to be less reliable than at other times of the year.

So what are the odds of having a El Nino, La Nina, El Nino mix in consecutive years?



Full link to above: Link
Still watching windstorms on my blog

Brittany and Normandy on alert as violent storms roll in
The Local.fr - 3 February 2017, 0821 UTC.

Edit at 1430 UTC:

map included in the article above is outdated now - red alert has been issued by Meteo-France for several "departements" (related to the second windstorm, that's gonna hit parts of the Atlantic coast with max wind gusts reaching 160 kph / 100 mph in a little more than 12 h from now, from early tomorrow morning on):

Red alert for western France as storm winds set to reach 160 km/hr
The Local - 1430 UTC
Antarctic Sea Ice Likely to Hit New All-Time Record Lows Over Coming Days
Throughout the record global heat of 2016 and on into 2017, the world’s sea ice has taken a merciless pounding.

In the Northern Hemisphere, extreme warming of the polar region pushed Arctic sea ice extents to record low daily ranges throughout the winter, spring and fall of 2016. And even today, after many months of daily record lows, sea ice in the Arctic remains more reduced (in most measures) than it has ever been for this time of year.

On the other side of the world, the story is much the same. For it now appears that the ocean region around Antarctica is about to experience an all-time record annual low for sea ice:


Link


Great Lakes MODIS

Gorgeous MODIS image of the Great Lakes region...so little ice! Almost none on Erie, only 10% ice cover on the entire Great Lakes. Time is definitely running out on any ice cover this year. Next week has temps in the upper 30s in SE Michigan.
3 FEBRUARY 2017 • 8:57AM
Supermarkets have taken to rationing vegetables after extreme weather in the Mediterranean caused supply shortages.

Shoppers have been venting their frustration on social media, sharing pictures of empty vegetable aisles during their trips to supermarkets.


Link
Global warming debate ignores facts

SANTA FE, N.M. — Five years ago, I hiked to the toe of the East Fork Glacier in Alaska’s Denali National Park. I was on my way to climb a small peak in the Alaska Range and had tracked down a photo taken in the 1920s by one of the park’s first geologists. Lining up the mountain skyline with the photo, I scrambled around until I found the exact spot where Stephen Capps stood to take the picture some 90 years earlier. The glacier had retreated nearly a mile since then.
I am an environmental philosopher, and have also worked as a glacial researcher, backcountry guide and naturalist. Seeing the dramatic disappearance of the East Fork Glacier was one of many intimate experiences I have had with a warming world.


Here’s a thought experiment: If I say that there are 10 M&Ms in a bowl and then I count the 10 M&Ms right before your eyes, you would have to “believe” me, right?
Quoting 192. RobertWC:


Spot on.
Commentary: Drought in Africa should sway deniers of climate change

Last month, I attended a conference at Kisumu, Kenya, a city of 250,000 people located on the shore of Lake Victoria. Because the conference was concerned with enhancing resilience to climate change, we visited an informal community on the outskirts of Kisumu to understand better the current vulnerabilities in their water and sanitation systems. There we met well-educated, knowledgeable and articulate residents and community leaders and discussed the potential impacts of climate change with them. They told us about the current threat to their water supply due to an overgrowth of vegetation in the nearby river caused by the high fertilizer content of downhill runoff from adjacent farms. Trees on the slope have been cut for fuel – in part, to boil water for drinking – which is making the problem worse. They are trying to replant trees on the slope to arrest the runoff and to contribute to drawing down atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

It bears repeating: They want to help draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. It broke my heart to know that these people who are struggling for health and well-being – really struggling for survival – have a will to contribute to this global problem that is in no way of their making. It contrasts strongly in my mind with the denial of facts that we often see in the U.S. at the highest levels of our government — and the reticence to clean up our own mess that impacts every living thing on the planet. It stirs my ever-growing concern that many of our country’s leaders do not make decisions based on reality.


Link
Commentary: Drought in Africa should sway deniers of climate change

As should the perma-droughts in Texas and California.
Quoting 173. ConchConvert:

living in the keys, we look forward to those nights in the 60s and days in the 70s - this has been warmer than desired and i hope it's not a trend that continues into spring/summer - else we'll be dealing with high SSTs and potential for coral bleaching...
I wouldn't worry so much about the coral bleaching as I would the storm runoff into the Everglades from the Sugar Cane Fields to the North of the park, and the sewage discharge from the Keys. From overpopulation and pollution, the Florida Keys are becoming a Paradise Lost, and this is coming from a long time resident, who's parents house was destroyed in Hurricane Donna. we sure could use a cat 4, or 5, this coming summer maybe two, might help clean out a lot of the garbage the Keys has been collecting since the last big storm.
Quoting 195. PensacolaDoug:

Commentary: Drought in Africa should sway deniers of climate change

As should the perma-droughts in Texas and California.

Yes, what ever happen to the drought in those two states, and it's like Africa never has a drought.

195. PensacolaDoug
Here’s a thought experiment: If I say that there are 10 M&Ms in a bowl and then I count the 10 M&Ms right before your eyes, you would have to “believe” me, right?

One M&M -
I scrambled around until I found the exact spot where Stephen Capps stood to take the picture some 90 years earlier. The glacier had retreated nearly a mile since then. ........................................... So let’s count: The United States Geological Survey has been measuring Alaska’s Gulkana and Wolverine glaciers for 50 years – the longest continuous glacier research program in North America. Both show the kind of retreat emblematic of significant regional climate change. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that Alaska is losing roughly 75 billion tons of ice annually. That’s a lot of M&Ms.


199. elioe
Quoting 180. KoritheMan:



I'm down. Add me if you want. Shoot me an inbox and I'll give you my Facebook.


Done. But the site may have eaten my message, as it doesn't show up in Sent Mail.

Edit: I'll try again.
Some pretty big M&M's

Worst Drought in Texas History Ravages Crops, Livestock

August 31, 2011 at 12:00 AM EST


California's Worst Drought Ever Is 1st Taste of Future

December 5, 2014 04:59pm ET
The 2012 to 2014 drought's lack of rain isn't remarkable on its own, according to tree-ring records reported in the study. There have been three-year periods when less rain and snow fell. But the current drought comes at a time of extreme heat. Record-high temperatures exacerbated the drought, creating the driest soil conditions since the 9th century, according to the study, published Dec. 3 in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Link
Good Morning Folks; that low approaching the NW Conus/Canada Pacific coast lost a little bit of punch overnight in terms of the depth of the low, but a remarkable amount of rain and snow is still moving in along with it.  Less winds perhaps due to the slight rise in pressure but conditions have gelled just about perfectly overnight and this morning for a formidable rain/snow event for them today:



And the big picture across Conus:



Environment Pollution in Japan on February 03 2017 12:00 PM (UTC).

Radiation levels inside a stricken reactor at Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant have hit a record high capable of shutting down robots, in the latest challenge to efforts aimed at dismantling the disaster-hit facility. Radiation levels inside the plant's No. 2 reactor were estimated at 530 sieverts per hour at one spot, Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO) said Thursday after analyzing images taken by a manually operated camera that probed the deepest point yet within the reactor. Even after taking a 30-percent margin of error into account, the radiation level was still far higher than the previous record of 73 sieverts per hour detected by sensors in 2012 though at a point not as deep, TEPCO said. Radiation exposure at 530 sieverts per hour would effectively shut down TEPCO's planned robot camera probe in under two hours. But TEPCO said the high reading focused on a single point, with levels estimated to be much lower at other spots filmed by the camera. It added that the planned robot probe would not sustain severe damage because it was unlikely to linger for too long at a single point. The three cameras mounted on a caterpillar-type robot are designed to withstand up to 1,000 sieverts in total. TEPCO said the radiation is not leaking outside the reactor. A massive undersea earthquake on March 11, 2011 sent a huge tsunami barrelling into Japan's northeast coast, leaving more than 18,000 people dead or missing, and sending three reactors into meltdown at the Fukushima plant in the worst such accident since Chernobyl in 1986. Japan's government said in December that it expects the total costs - including compensation, decommissioning and decontamination - to reach 21.5 trillion yen ($190 billion) in a process likely to take decades as high radiation levels have slowed operations. TEPCO has said it plans to eventually use robots to locate the fuel debris as part of the decommissioning process. Images of the wreckage inside the No. 2 reactor captured by the camera show that the metal grating under the pressure vessel which contained nuclear fuel has largely sunken in, causing a hole about one metre wide. Black debris that could be melted fuel is also seen in the images. Fuel may have melted through the vessel and damaged the grating but the exact cause was not determined, TEPCO spokesman Tatsuhiro Yamagishi said Friday. "It may have been caused by nuclear fuel that would have melted and made a hole in the vessel, but it is only a hypothesis at this stage," he told AFP. "We believe the captured images offer very useful information, but we still need to investigate given that it is very difficult to assume the actual condition inside," he said.

And in terms of the NH jet, that "break" over the North Pacific as I mentioned yesterday (as a more frequent event when the polar jet is supposed to be more linear across it's path in the Winter)  is allowing some warmer air from the mid-latitudes to continue to flow into the Arctic region right over Alaska and points further North at present:








Quoting 142. ACSeattle:


And I think this blog can do nicely without concern trolling.

Just saw this...

Was not my intention.... the blog got cleaned up.

I think Global Warming and Climate Change should not be political issues because we all already know that is what is happening and everything... the rest of the world differs from the people who run this country.... and I do find THAT dangerous.

And I find that discussion fruitful...

But with it becoming political in a non well intentioned way is when it becomes disingenuous.
----

I am really wondering about the TCR report for Matthew.... really got me curious.... Matthew had that look before landfall in Haiti.... had a lower pressure then than when it was a cat 5 and looked a lot better.... it looked almost like a mini Katrina in some ways

I wonder if albeit briefly it was a Cat 5 during landfall... we will find out soon enough!
And in the global tropics, there is one storm about to form off the coast of Madagascar but forecast to stay away:



Quoting 198. RobertWC:


195. PensacolaDoug
Here’s a thought experiment: If I say that there are 10 M&Ms in a bowl and then I count the 10 M&Ms right before your eyes, you would have to “believe” me, right?

Of course not. Any illusionist can do tricks like that.

Quoting 208. cRRKampen:


Of course not. Any illusionist can do tricks like that.
Van Halen used to have a provision in their touring contracts for a bowl of M&Ms in the dressing room with all of the brown ones removed.  Folks thought that they were being vain but it was purposely done to see if the Promoter for a particular show actually read the contract carefully.  They remarked years later that many of their shows where something went wrong in terms of requested equipment or lighting was always at the places where the brown M&Ms were still in the bowl................................... :) 
I can attest this is entry is spot on. It has been hot and dry for most of the "Winter" here is SFL.
Texas bill would shield Exxon from potential suit over climate change

Concerned about what he calls the “overcriminalization” of society, an East Texas lawmaker has drafted a bill that would protect one potential defendant not conventionally considered a marginalized victim of injustice: Exxon Mobil.
State Rep. James White, R-Hillister, has proposed barring a defendant’s theories on climate change from being used as evidence in a fraud or deceptive practice case.


Link
Fish migrating to unusual regions due to global warming: AU study

Sightings of fish outside their usual regions could be a sign of marine species shifting in response to climate change, an Australian study has found.

The study, lead by Hannah Fogarty from the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) and the University of Tasmania (UTAS), revealed that initial reports of fish in unaccustomed waters are often a sign of impending species-wide change.

Fogarty compiled a list of verified first sightings from around the world and compared it with long-term data on warming oceans and found a correlation between the early stages of a species range shift and climate change.


Link
Instead of bloviating on blogs, ignoring customer feedback, and planning how to destroy a longtime, robust, creative, and thoroughly enjoyable photo community, why not devote some resources to addressing the ever-increasing technical glitches and inconsistencies/inaccuracies in data/forecasts that continue to plague your (WU) website?
A overcast cool NOLA morning here.



G'morning wunderland'....!

Seeing as how the VP is such a VIP, shouldn't we keep the PC on the QT? 'Cause if it leaks to the QVC he could end up MIA, and then we'd all be put on KP.

SOme folks jus dont get the werd and default to Duh'

It is a transition time as the upgrade continues,

From the head wu Honcho'

This is due to one of our old/main data centers getting shut down for good yesterday(Tues). Some bumps in the road during the transition.


Seems we might get a little bit of rain here in Soo Cal from those from those Northern California ones.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
319 AM PST Fri Feb 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The tail end of a trough will move across the area today through
tonight, leading to some light rainfall across especially Orange
and San Bernardino Counties. Fair weather will prevail this
weekend, but another trough will quickly move in from the
northwest on Monday. This will bring a bout of steadier rainfall
to all but the deserts Monday and perhaps extending through
Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build in behind the trough
for the middle part of next week along with warming temperatures.

Now to the challenging part of this forecast -- a trough arriving
early next week. Wow have models been all over the place on this
one over the past few days! However, confidence now is high that
rain is a good bet from the mountains to the coast on Monday as a
trough moves in from the northwest. Both GFS and ECMWF agree on
this now over the past few model runs. However, they continue to
differ on the amplitude of the trough and pace. GFS is faster and
with less amplitude, while the ECMWF is slower and with higher
amplitude and, as such, delivers MUCH higher precipitation totals
to Southern California compared to the GFS...as it is heavier and
lasts through Tuesday, whereas the GFS is dry by Tuesday.

For precip amounts, GFS shows a quarter inch of less, whereas the
ECWMF shows 0.5-1.0 inch from north San Diego County through OC
and the IE (less than 0.50 inch south) and 1-3 inches along the
coastal mountain slopes! This was a dramatic increase in precip
output off the latest EC run, showing a moisture plume with PW
around 1 inch on increased W-SW low level wind flow, providing for
good upslope flow. Snow levels will be high (over 8000 FT) with
only the highest peaks forecast to receive light accums.
204. Skyepony (Mod)
1:24 PM GMT on February 03, 2017

Environment Pollution in Japan on February 03 2017 12:00 PM (UTC).


"Twisting the dragons tail. "
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
325 am CST Fri Feb 3 2017

Short term...
extensive long wave trough continues to keep a zonal flow over
the area. This is responsible for the very sluggish forward
movement of cold fronts in our area. But it is also responsible
for these fronts having strong cold air advection. A very cool
cloudy day is in store for today with a very light rain possible
from time to time. The next cold front will begin to slow as it moves
through Wednesday then quickly be brought back as a warm front
Thursday. The sfc low associated with this front will move east
through the Great Lakes keeping the large upper troughing in tact.
After the warm front moves through Thursday, the next cold front
will be fast approaching later that evening. But this is where the
current global suites start their strongly differing solutions.
Would like to hold on to the GFS for at least this run since it is
showing roughly the same trend with this system where the Euro has
done a 180. This is about a week out which will still give time to
resolve these issues as we approach.

&&


												
Quoting 205. weathermanwannabe:

And in terms of the NH jet, that "break" over the North Pacific as I mentioned yesterday (as a more frequent event when the polar jet is supposed to be more linear across it's path in the Winter)  is allowing some warmer air from the mid-latitudes to continue to flow into the Arctic region right over Alaska and points further North at present:











Looking pretty zonal from Cali to Spain.......quite a long distance with no ups or downs.
What looked like a decent chance for s**w this weekend has now turned into 50's and rain.The colder than normal pattern that the Mets kept talking about never came to pass.At this point it doesn't look like we'll be seeing any s**w through the next 10 days.Please bring on spring and put this miserable "winter" out if it's misery all ready.It's just not worth keeping around.
Quoting 221. washingtonian115:

What looked like a decent chance for s**w this weekend has now turned into 50's and rain.The colder than normal pattern that the Mets kept talking about never came to pass.At this point it doesn't look like we'll be seeing any s**w through the next 10 days.Please bring on spring and put this miserable "winter" out if it's misery all ready.It's just not worth keeping around.


Strong troughing in the East NEXT weekend. Yep always ten days out.

.. checks today's model output ...


Aahh. forget it! Strong troughing for several days, turns into a two day cold outbreak and warming again next weekend.


I've come to appreciate winter more and more and am in no hurry for spring this year.


Quoting 211. RobertWC:

...barring a defendant’s theories on climate change from being used as evidence in a fraud or deceptive practice case.


Link


Wunder if it would have affected this case... Ken Ward didn't get prosecuted for turning off the Canada tar sand pipeline to the Washington State refineries during a protest by the ValveTurners that prevented 15% of the daily oil burned in the USA from being consumed one day last October. He was facing 20years prison and $40,000 fine...the jury refused to find him guilty after seeing his evidence on climate change, he didn't deny his civil disobedience, just used climate change as a defense.
Sweden pledges to cut all greenhouse gas emissions by 2045
Climate minister urges European Union to take lead on climate change as fears Donald Trump will pull out of Paris Agreement


Link
Well, Hurricane Newton's Tropical Cyclone report has been released. See it here

And yay! The Plus Button is back!

Still no Tropical Cyclone report has been released on Matthew, though.

Alas, here are the chances for retirement that I think each storm has.

Alex: 0%
Bonnie: 0%
Colin: 5%
Danielle: 5%
Earl: 65%
Fiona: 0%
Gaston: 0%
Hermine: 70%
Ian: 0%
Julia: 5%
Karl: 2%
Lisa: 0%
Matthew: 100% (aka SLAM DUNK)
Nicole: 25%
Otto: 40%

Names with a 100% certainty of reitrement: Matthew

Names that will likely be retired: Earl, Hermine

Names that will likely NOT be retired: Nicole, Otto, Lisa, Karl, Ian, Julia, Fiona, Gaston, Danielle, Colin, Bonnie, Alex.
I have forgotten to post this tidbit on our heavy winter rains (thus far).

Nearest official NWS station is about 4 miles as the crow flies from my house. It is Oak Grove,CA. It sits in a slight rain shadow off Palomar Mountain.

Oak Grove precipitation from July 1 to present is 18.33" with 14.70" coming during Dec and Jan.

At my place in Sunshine Summit, CA, about 4 miles SE and about 1000 foot higher elevation with 4500-5000 foot mountains behind me which helps a bit with upslope flow on most of our storms.

From my neighbors PWS with mucho gadgets rainfall at my place is:
From July 1 to present is 22.63" with 19.81" coming during Dec and Jan. January was especially wet with 12.05"!

Im thinking 18-22 inches per year at my locale is about normal, with higher elevations in my area their average being 25-35 inches.

All in all a very good winter so far with maybe a little more today and Monday, so be it even if my yard is still rather spongey after Januarys onslaught!

Just as an example of higher elevation rain totals in my area, Palomar Mountain at elevation 5400 feet has had 30.79" of rain since July 1 with over 15" coming since January 1, 2017. Palomar MT is 6,138 feet and about 6 miles as the crow flies W/WSW of my place.
Quoting 224. RobertWC:

Sweden pledges to cut all greenhouse gas emissions by 2045
Climate minister urges European Union to take lead on climate change as fears Donald Trump will pull out of Paris Agreement


Link


Why do most people in the world have COMMON SENSE and plan to do something about? I would bet MOST Americans know/understand what is going on with the climate and want to help correct it. Is stopping immigration more important that the subject got a guy elected who loves tar oils and coal and wants to get rid of the EPA.......What have we become?
America's greatness is slipping away faster than coal ash into a Carolina River.

It is Madness by GOP.

One cannot Lead by insults to allies, and tweeting foreign policy.

This Tan Man will not last.

Quoting 223. Skyepony:



Wunder if it would have affected this case... Ken Ward didn't get prosecuted for turning off the Canada tar sand pipeline to the Washington State refineries during a protest by the ValveTurners that prevented 15% of the daily oil burned in the USA from being consumed one day last October. He was facing 20years prison and $40,000 fine...the jury refused to find him guilty after seeing his evidence on climate change, he didn't deny his civil disobedience, just used climate change as a defense.

Bingo , Love to see his campaign contributions list.

After Exxon was targeted by other states’ attorneys general, state Rep. James White says science is on trial.

He continued: “What would it look like if Copernicus was sued based on his belief that Earth and other planets were circling the sun?”
I love it, wrapping oneself with Copernicus, like he was making Billions of his "heliocentric theory of the solar system"

Way down the rabbit hole on this one.

Quoting 211. RobertWC:

Texas bill would shield Exxon from potential suit over climate change

Concerned about what he calls the “overcriminalization” of society, an East Texas lawmaker has drafted a bill that would protect one potential defendant not conventionally considered a marginalized victim of injustice: Exxon Mobil.
State Rep. James White, R-Hillister, has proposed barring a defendant’s theories on climate change from being used as evidence in a fraud or deceptive practice case.


Link

This article kind of blew my mind. Questions for anyone (though I know there's at least one attorney who regularly reads and posts here).

1) "the company's free speech protections" - has this always been the case, or is this a result of the court decision that a company is a 'person'?

2) has this occurred in any other state? i.e., has climate change been excluded as discussed in the article?

3) are there similar scenarios in Texas or elsewhere, where belief/acceptance, or lack thereof, in anything has been excluded like this?

As HHJoe says, "What have we become?" Indeed.
Quoting 224. RobertWC:

Sweden pledges to cut all greenhouse gas emissions by 2045
Climate minister urges European Union to take lead on climate change as fears Donald Trump will pull out of Paris Agreement


Link


Yet the argument still floats in America that carbon reduction will kill an economy. As someone thats traveled, you still get good services and decent roads in these supposedly handicapped nations. Been to Wisconsin? Wait hours at the DMV, schools are declining, roads are terrible, and water is not clean.
Quoting 191. RobertWC:

3 FEBRUARY 2017 %u2022 8:57AM
Supermarkets have taken to rationing vegetables after extreme weather in the Mediterranean caused supply shortages.

Shoppers have been venting their frustration on social media, sharing pictures of empty vegetable aisles during their trips to supermarkets.


Link


One of my personal missions is to develop techniques for winter vegetable gardening in moderate winter regions like the Mid Atlantic which also means such production can become more local. I cannot believe this stuff I am rediscovering was not known in the 18th and 19th centuries because it seems so easy but, apparently it's been lost. Sigh!
230. LAbonbon

We just saw the 50th annv. of "Surrealistic Pillow" ..............

When logic and proportion have fallen sloppy dead
And the white knight is talking backwards
And the red queen's off with her head
Remember what the dormouse said
Feed your head, feed your head
This was Russia's Arctic weather in 2016
The Barents Observer - Feb 3, 2016.

"These kind of temperatures have never before been registered in the region", the country’s Hydrometeorological Center says. The year 2016 became the warmest on the northern hemisphere on record, and temperatures in the Arctic were by far the most extreme, the research center says in a sum-up of the year.

(...)

In fall, extreme temperatures continued in the Russian east Arctic and the Arctic archipelagos with warmth up to 12 degrees higher than normal.

Also Arctic waters heat up at record pace. In the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea, the average water temperatures were up to 2,5 decrees above normal, the meteorologists say. The Hydrometeorological Center does not exclude that the heat ultimately could result in almost ice-free Arctic water already in the course of this decade.

The data from the Russian center coincides with measurements made by other researchers. In neighboring Norway, data from Svalbard, the archipelago north in the Barents Sea show that all months of 2016 was far warmer than normal.

"Over the last decades, the climate has changed significantly, I can hardly recognize the place from when I came here the first time in 1977", Bjorn Frantzen, a researcher based in the Norwegian archipelago says. "Back then, we had ice on the water and zero-ice on land, now we have the opposite situation", he explains to the Barents Observer.


Click for more.
The Global warming from Humans burning fossil fuel's to run their societies, continues to add 400,000 tons of CO2 per hour into our biosphere,

unabated.


Quoting 232. georgevandenberghe:



One of my personal missions is to develop techniques for winter vegetable gardening in moderate winter regions like the Mid Atlantic which also means such production can become more local. I cannot believe this stuff I am rediscovering was not known in the 18th and 19th centuries because it seems so easy but, apparently it's been lost. Sigh!


Ask this "Old House" is running segment from the roof of a Whole Foods market this weekend. The whole building was engineered with a garden on the roof.
Quoting 192. RobertWC:

Global warming debate ignores facts

SANTA FE, N.M. — Five years ago, I hiked to the toe of the East Fork Glacier in Alaska’s Denali National Park. I was on my way to climb a small peak in the Alaska Range and had tracked down a photo taken in the 1920s by one of the park’s first geologists. Lining up the mountain skyline with the photo, I scrambled around until I found the exact spot where Stephen Capps stood to take the picture some 90 years earlier. The glacier had retreated nearly a mile since then.
I am an environmental philosopher, and have also worked as a glacial researcher, backcountry guide and naturalist. Seeing the dramatic disappearance of the East Fork Glacier was one of many intimate experiences I have had with a warming world.


Here’s a thought experiment: If I say that there are 10 M&Ms in a bowl and then I count the 10 M&Ms right before your eyes, you would have to “believe” me, right?



This pretty much sums up why I like warmers more than so called skeptics. However as someone who is neither a warmer or a skeptic, and a mathematician, I have to point out something which really would be the same kind of obvious, but maybe on timescales that are not subject to comparative photography. That is, we are in an interglacial. Which means at one point of course most of North America was covered with this ice. And on a weather timescale we have El Nino, which comes and goes about every 2-7 years. That is an up and down behavior. A harmonic. And harmonics accelerate as a negative harmonic, simply. This is NOT warming. This is NOT hockey stick. The legit question is where will this change humans are causing bring us. I think neo glacial super storms that will cause billions to be displaced, die. I think it's a legit skeptical stance, because mechanism hasn't been addressed on large scale (global electrical currents) and small scale (cloud microphysics specifically super cooled water in cirrus cloud formations with CO2 removed from the oceans from surface lows). The science is just now being able to look at these things. I think the coupling studies by Lindzen, Hartman / Fu and others are seriously flawed because an electrical complexity will move in wires, smaller than the grid squares used by the studies. The global climate models also use grid squares and don't consider an electrical complexity. The state of the science has a LONG way to go.
Breaking the law, and payment of fines or penalties, in the context of weather/environment/climate change issues is typically reserved for the "law" as related to wildlife and environmental issues. At the state level, we have state laws related to wildlife/game protection/fishing-hunting limits and many states also have laws in the books related to environmental issues such as pollution, waste, etc, against companies or individuals who harm the environment.

The big tamale in all of this, at the Federal level, for corporations or "individuals" who do business or conduct their activities across State borders (inter-state commerce and business), or large scale environmental disasters, we have the EPA and their myriad of regulations, rules, and ability to bring lawsuits for violators and/or cite people with huge fines.

In my personal opinion, general legislation regulating potential "climate change offenders" goes too far because it is far too speculative (non-constitutional) and we can already use the existing regulatory process and new laws or legislation to address these issues whether related to C02 emission regs for utility companies (including the carbon tax issue), pollution laws, and automotive industry laws related to car and vehicle emissions.

With all of that being said, I am completely opposed to the proposed legislation noted below because it essentially seeks to shied Exxon Mobil from potential litigation in the future on potential climate change legislation which is often very closely associated with environmental protection. This combined with the fact the new EPA Secretary is already talking about shutting down or curtailing down the EPA is a huge disaster in the making. The"powers" that be are working (and have been working for the past 40 years) at the State levels, and now overtly at the Federal levels, overtime, to continue to try and protect corporations, and fossil fuel corporate interests, over the interests of the "little people" and the environment. We are headed in a really dark direction and this needs to be watched very closely; I anticipate that we are going to see tons of litigation in the Federal Courts over the next four years from environmental organizations and nature conservancy organizations to address these very serious issues.
239. vanderwaalselectrics
4:16 PM GMT on February 03, 2017


Your comment has a lot of "Brown M&M's".
Quoting 238. 999Ai2016:

From Robbie Andrew - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo. Atmospheric CO2 keeps climbing :



Just superimposing the change of rate in increase through the last 5 years is mind blowing.

The inmates of the asylum have ALL the keys and meds.


The Flameout and fall will be Glorious to witness.







Extensive stacked low easing ENE near the CA-OR border, dragging a cold front across the SF Bay Area this morning. Snow will dump another 2-3 feet as the front climbs the Sierra. System is the leading edge of yet another siege of moisture that will take us thru next week. Systems lining up across the Pacific, blocked again by high pressure over Alaska forcing a midlatitude westerly flow, with progs showing entrainment of deep subtropical moisture at some point.
Quoting 238. 999Ai2016:

From Robbie Andrew - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo. Atmospheric CO2 keeps climbing :



Great graph - thank you.

2017 will be, or should be warmer than 2016.

2018 will or should be warmer still. Time to stop burning coal, use more nuclear and shade the planet.
And one day in our lifetime, and maybe sooner than we think, we are going to see trials at the State and Federal level (with appeals up to the Supremes) involving legislation or laws related to environmental or related climate change issues where we are actually going to see scientists testifying in court and presenting science-based evidence (such as what we discuss on here as related to climate change) with the Judge, or jury, making the determination as to whether a specific proposed law or statute violates the constitution or is so potentially harmful that it needs to be amended to take the science into account.................Very interesting times ahead; if I was a potential new attorney going to law school at the moment, or planning to go to law school in the near future, I would take a good hard look at becoming an Environmental Law attorney because the issues will be very interesting..............This also illustrates why it is important, at both the State and Federal level, to try to have a "balanced" Court/Judges at the highest levels; too far to the right or too far to the left for any Court is not representative of all of the American population.
248. jeanX
190. RunningTrauma
Would you post a map of the states/provinces affected?
Great pic!
Thanks!
Quoting 230. LAbonbon:


This article kind of blew my mind. Questions for anyone (though I know there's at least one attorney who regularly reads and posts here).

1) "the company's free speech protections" - has this always been the case, or is this a result of the court decision that a company is a 'person'?

2) has this occurred in any other state? i.e., has climate change been excluded as discussed in the article?

3) are there similar scenarios in Texas or elsewhere, where belief/acceptance, or lack thereof, in anything has been excluded like this?

As HHJoe says, "What have we become?" Indeed.



In regards to Citizens United v. FEC - one could argue that it simply was a national extension of corporate "free speech rights" originally granted in the 1970's.

Buckley v. Valeo
First National Bank of Boston v. Bellotti
250. elioe
Quoting 245. barbamz:



Very telling. From the link, as the spokesperson said:

It’s more that Sweden is a feminist government...

That's exactly what it looks like.
From the mouths of babe's..

CLIMATE CHANGE
These Kids Are Suing the Federal Government to Demand Climate Action. They Just Won an Important Victory

Justin Worland / Eugene
Nov 10, 2016



A group of young Americans suing the federal government to demand increased efforts on climate change won a notable battle Thursday, as a federal court rejected the government's request to dismiss the case.
The ruling paves the way for the 21 plaintiffs%u2014who range in age from 9 to 20%u2014to take their case to trial in federal court. A ruling in their favor could be a landmark decision on climate change, though it would almost certainly be appealed to a Supreme Court that is set to become more conservative in the wake of Donald Trump's win.
%u201CWe are standing here to fight and protect everything that we love%u2014from our land to our waters to the mountains to the rivers and forests,%u201D Xiuhtezcatl Martinez, a 16-year-old plaintiff in the case told supporters after a hearing in Eugene, Ore. this fall. %u201CThis is the moment where we decide what kind of legacy we are going to leave behind for future generations.%u201D

The case rests on the legal argument that climate change threatens the plaintiffs' fundamental constitutional right to life and liberty. Julia Olson, a lawyer for the plaintiffs and executive director of Our Children%u2019s Trust, argued in court that the federal government has understood the threat of climate change for decades and knowingly put the lives of future generations in danger. The current measures in place to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient and not aligned with current science, she argued.

The lawsuit awkwardly puts President Obama's Justice Department in a position arguing that the children do not have standing to sue%u2014even though Obama himself has made climate action a priority. Sean Duffy, a lawyer for the Justice Department, acknowledged in a September hearing that climate change poses an urgent threat but dismissed the idea that individual citizens could sue the federal government over the issue. The federal government has no means to address the complaint, Duffy argued. Quin Sorenson, a lawyer representing industry interests including the American Petroleum Institute, supported that argument and added others.

But in the hearing Judge Ann Aiken appeared not just sympathetic to the children%u2014most of whom were seated in the front of the courtroom%u2014but also downright hostile toward the challengers. Aiken seemed to suggest that the court could play a role bringing the federal government to the table with environmental activists to negotiate an agreement.
%u201CI would think the government would want the help of the courts to push the good work it%u2019s doing,%u201D she told Duffy. %u201CThere is so much common ground.%u201D

Of course, that common ground will likely evaporate as soon as Trump takes office in January. Trump repeatedly rejected the science of man-made climate change as a candidate and promised to undo many existing regulations. A lawsuit forcing policymakers to the table to take action on climate change would be a game-changing%u2014if unlikely%u2014victory for climate change activists at an otherwise dark moment.This week's victory is only a preliminary step forward for the novel lawsuit. The case now faces an actual trial and whatever decision emerges will inevitably be appealed, perhaps as far as the U.S. Supreme Court. The Court ruled in Massachusetts v. Environmental Protection Agency that the EPA needs to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from vehicles. But the Court has changed since then and will continue to change with Trump in office.


Quoting 207. weathermanwannabe:

And in the global tropics, there is one storm about to form off the coast of Madagascar but forecast to stay away:

Reunion island has issued a pre-alert, they expect to get hit when the cyclone is in its early stages.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 230. LAbonbon:


This article kind of blew my mind. Questions for anyone (though I know there's at least one attorney who regularly reads and posts here).

1) "the company's free speech protections" - has this always been the case, or is this a result of the court decision that a company is a 'person'?

2) has this occurred in any other state? i.e., has climate change been excluded as discussed in the article?

3) are there similar scenarios in Texas or elsewhere, where belief/acceptance, or lack thereof, in anything has been excluded like this?

As HHJoe says, "What have we become?" Indeed.



Exxon's own scientific studies performed in the late 1970's concluded that the burning of fossil fuels would induce a warming of the global climate and that by the time that the warming could be measured that it would be too late to prevent any further warming. Exxon's scientists had gone as far as to predict how much warming would take place by the year 2010(?) and their estimates nearly matched the observations. Exxon's crime was not to include this information at shareholder meetings and how this could impact Exxon's future profits. Exxon went as far as to lie to its shareholders by claiming that we will be able to adapt and that it was an engineering problem. This is where Exxon broke the law. They lied to its shareholders in order to maintain/increase its profits. This is not a free speech argument.
Quoting 228. Patrap:

America's greatness is slipping away faster than coal ash into a Carolina River.

It is Madness by GOP.

One cannot Lead by insults to allies, and tweeting foreign policy.

This Tan Man will not last.




The Guardian: It may only take 3.5% of the population to topple a dictator – with civil resistance
Quoting 245. barbamz:

:-))
Swedish climate minister appears to mock Trump administration with all-women photo
The Hill, by Paulina Firozi - 02/03/17 11:28 AM EST




Trump is easily the most re-mockable prezza-dink yet.