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CYGNSS Micro Satellites Usher in New Era in Ocean Wind Measurements

By: Jeff Masters 2:45 PM GMT on January 30, 2017

A new era in measuring hurricane winds began on December 15, 2016, when a Pegasus XL rocket launched by Stargazer—Orbital ATK’s L-1011 carrier aircraft—put into orbit a constellation of eight micro-satellites, the core of a NASA mission called CYGNSS (Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System). Each CYGNSS micro-satellite uses less power than a 50-watt light bulb, weighs about 64 pounds, and is the size of a full-grown swan when the solar panels are extended. Each satellite is equipped with a scatterometer-like device called a Delay Doppler Mapping Instrument (DDMI). This instrument studies Global Positioning System (GPS) signals emitted by the existing constellation of 30 GPS satellites in medium Earth orbit when these signals are reflected off of the ocean (each CYGNSS satellite works with four GPS satellites at a time.) The amount of scattering of the GPS signals is related to the wind speed at the surface, allowing the CYGNSS satellites to measure the surface wind speed. GPS signals are not affected by heavy rain, which will allow CYGNSS to measure winds in hurricane eyewalls—something a previous scatterometer instrument, QuikSCAT, could not reliably do.


Figure 1. A NASA depiction of one of the CYGNSS satellites.

The CYGNSS satellite constellation joins the European Space Agency’s two ASCAT instruments, launched in 2007, as the only space-borne scatterometer instruments for measuring surface winds. The RapidScat instrument, which was mounted on the International Space Station, failed in December 2016, and QuikScat has been dead since 2009. There are other spaceborne sensors that can measure winds using passive microwave methods (e.g. SSM/I, WindSat, GMI), but measurement from these sensors are subject to interference from rain, and are not as useful in a hurricane environment. Both CYGNSS and ASCAT have the same resolution, 25 km, but the eight CYGNSS satellites allow for much better coverage of the globe than a single satellite, since the eight satellites will pass over the ocean more frequently than a single satellite would. The complete constellation provides nearly gap-free coverage with an average revisit time of seven hours over the prime hurricane breeding grounds between 35 degrees north and south latitude (as far north as North Carolina and as far south as southern Australia.) The CYGNSS satellites fly in Low Earth Orbit at an altitude of about 300 miles and cannot see poleward of 38.5 degrees of latitude. ASCAT measures global winds only twice per day along two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap. This means that ASCAT passes miss the center of circulation of a hurricane more than half the time. However, ASCAT is in polar orbit and can see the entire globe.

CYNGSS costs about $157 million, and is designed to operate for a minimum of two years. The price is relatively cheap for a weather satellite; the highly advanced Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) is part of a weather and solar activity monitoring program estimated to cost $11 billion. However, funding does not currently exist to provide the CYGNSS data in near real time to hurricane forecasters; up to a six day lag is anticipated between the time a measurement is taken and when the final data is processed and made available. Thus, CYGNSS is a proof-of-concept research mission intended to pave the way for future operational missions that can provide real-time wind data to hurricane forecasters. According to lead mission scientist Dr. Chris Ruf of the University of Michigan’s Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering Program, “discussions have started with NOAA about possibly supplementing our current data downlinks to improve data latency. So we might not have to wait for another mission. But this is still to be determined.”


Figure 2. Flying over the Atlantic Ocean offshore from Daytona Beach, Florida, a Pegasus XL rocket with eight Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System, or CYGNSS, spacecraft was released from the Orbital ATK L-1011 Stargazer aircraft and the first stage ignited at 8:37 a.m. EST December 15, 2016. Image credit: NASA.

Scatterometer data: a valuable tool for hurricane forecasters
Scatterometer data are extremely valuable for many aspects of hurricane forecasting. It makes intensity estimates more accurate, provides early detection of surface circulations in developing tropical depressions, and helps define gale (34 kts, minimal tropical storm strength) and storm-force (50 kts) wind radii. The information on wind radii from scatterometer data is especially important for tropical storms and hurricanes outside the range of aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, and for the regions where there are no reconnaissance flights (Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean). Accurate wind radii are critical to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) watch and warning process, since they affect the size of tropical storm and hurricane watch and warning areas. Between 2003 and 2006, QuikSCAT data were used at NHC 17% of the time to determine the wind radii, 21% of the time for center fixing, and 62% of the time for storm intensity estimates.

While there is evidence that satellite scatterometer data improves hurricane track forecasts of some computer models, data from CYGNSS may not significantly improve official hurricane track forecasts from NHC, though. NHC uses many models to make hurricane track forecasts, and some of these models may not be helped by scatterometer data. For example, a 2009 model study by Dr. Jim Goerss of the Naval Research Lab found that QuikSCAT winds made no improvement to hurricane track forecasts of the NOGAPS model, one of the key models used by NHC to predict hurricane tracks. Former National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza laudably made a big push in 2007 for a replacement of the failing QuikSCAT satellite, but unfortunately made claims about the usefulness of QuikSCAT for improving hurricane track forecasts that were not supported by scientific research, an error that may have ultimately led to his downfall.

We'll have a new post on Wednesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Satellites

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

BNO News ‏@BNONews 5m5 minutes ago
The U.S. will change its course on climate change and will abandon a global pact to cut emissions, a Trump transition official says - REU
From Reuters:

U.S. will change course on climate policy, Trump official says

The United States will switch course on climate change and pull out of a global pact to cut emissions, said Myron Ebell, who headed U.S. President Donald Trump's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transition team until his inauguration.

"(Trump) could do it by executive order tomorrow or he could do it as part of a larger package," Ebell told a conference in London on Monday. "I have no idea of the timing."

Trump, a climate change doubter, campaigned on a pledge to boost the U.S. oil and gas drilling and coal mining industries by slashing regulation. He also promised to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement aimed at curbing global warming.

Trump's administration has asked the EPA to temporarily halt all contracts, grants and interagency agreements pending a review, according to sources.

Ebell, who helped guide the EPA's transition after Trump was elected in November until he was sworn in on Jan. 20, said it was difficult to predict the timing of any action because government departments are still in transition.

Ebell is Director of Global Warming and International Environmental Policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington.

Trump appointed Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, who has led 14 lawsuits against the EPA, as the agency's administrator, although a vote on his nomination has not been scheduled.

Trump also has drawn heavily from the energy industry lobby and pro-drilling think tanks to build its landing team for the EPA, according to a list of the newly introduced 10-member team seen by Reuters on Monday.

(Reporting by Nina Chestney; editing by Louise Heavens/Ruth Pitchford)
Quoting 2. Xandra:

From Reuters:

U.S. will change course on climate policy, Trump official says

The United States will switch course on climate change and pull out of a global pact to cut emissions, said Myron Ebell, who headed U.S. President Donald Trump's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) transition team until his inauguration.

"(Trump) could do it by executive order tomorrow or he could do it as part of a larger package," Ebell told a conference in London on Monday. "I have no idea of the timing."

Trump, a climate change doubter, campaigned on a pledge to boost the U.S. oil and gas drilling and coal mining industries by slashing regulation. He also promised to pull the United States out of the Paris Agreement aimed at curbing global warming.

Trump's administration has asked the EPA to temporarily halt all contracts, grants and interagency agreements pending a review, according to sources.

Ebell, who helped guide the EPA's transition after Trump was elected in November until he was sworn in on Jan. 20, said it was difficult to predict the timing of any action because government departments are still in transition.

Ebell is Director of Global Warming and International Environmental Policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington.

Trump appointed Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, who has led 14 lawsuits against the EPA, as the agency's administrator, although a vote on his nomination has not been scheduled.

Trump also has drawn heavily from the energy industry lobby and pro-drilling think tanks to build its landing team for the EPA, according to a list of the newly introduced 10-member team seen by Reuters on Monday.

(Reporting by Nina Chestney; editing by Louise Heavens/Ruth Pitchford)


Terrible news of course. I was on Michael Mann's facebook page, highly critical of his views because as you all know including the moderators, I am showing that CO2 is an electrical forcing in clouds and it's not about CO2 as a green house gas. One poster said it was like if the US and Israel went to war. Of course that had me thinking about how I am not a fan of Israel hording the water in the region. I made a post about the second derivative of sine and was banned by Mann. The point is that colder SSTs move to warmer and then warmer to colder with ENSO and other teleconnections, which means that the second derivative of the forcing should also be harmonic. That then is consistent with cO2 coming out of solution with surface lows more with colder SSTs, which it in fact does because colder oceans hold more carbonation. As an alarmist AND a skeptic, who thinks CO2 works in other ways than the main, I think this election proves the part about the truth shall set you free. I hope that the weather and climate community LEARNS from this disaster.
Hi Everyone - Longtime lurker. I have a friend who I am trying to convince that global warming is real. Does anyone have suggestions on some great articles that explain what is global warming and why it is occurring? My friend does not have a strong science background. Many thanks in advance.
While I understand CYGNSS will not improve NOGAPS, it will be interesting to see how much wall detail they provide about surface / hurricane interaction.

It seems like a lot of money to me so thanks for the billion dollar comparison.

New instruments often provide new insight on what folks did not know they where missing.
#8

Google NOAA Global Climate Change Indicators.
Quoting 8. CaneGirl:

Hi Everyone - Longtime lurker. I have a friend who I am trying to convince that global warming is real. Does anyone have suggestions on some great articles that explain what is global warming and why it is occurring? My friend does not have a strong science background. Many thanks in advance.


Also ask them, "Why or what about global warming do they think is wrong"

Seek out their misunderstanding first. Just a suggestion.
Quoting 8. CaneGirl:

Hi Everyone - Longtime lurker. I have a friend who I am trying to convince that global warming is real. Does anyone have suggestions on some great articles that explain what is global warming and why it is occurring? My friend does not have a strong science background. Many thanks in advance.


As Patrap mentioned, NOAA NCEI Global Climate Change Indicators

I'm a big fan of the US National Climate Assessment - it's easy to use, the user can get an overview or more detail, and in my opinion it's well suited for a non-scientist.

An old blog I did a couple of years ago has a series of introductory videos that are pretty good at explaining the basics. It's here.

I'm sure others on here may have some good suggestions as well. Good luck!
Good morning everyone.

A while ago, I wrote a document which had theme songs for the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Here are the storms and the associated theme songs. Copy and paste the links into your address bar.

Alex January 12-15 Category 1 Hurricane 85mph 981mb: Star Trek Motion Picture Theme by Jerry Goldsmith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AiSbxZYViE

Bonnie May 27-June 5 Tropical Storm 45mph 1006mb: We Will Rock You by Queen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGaOlfmX8rQ

Colin June 5-7 Tropical Storm 50mph 1000mb: Never Gonna Give You Up by Rick Astley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

Danielle June 19-21 Tropical Storm 45mph 1007mb: Gusty Garden Galaxy theme from Super Mario Galaxy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcHQGiz6b8g

Earl August 2-6 Category 1 Hurricane 80mph 979mb: Captain Borg by Ron Jones
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbbNn0yPJs0

Fiona August 17-23 Tropical Storm 50mph 1004mb: First Attack by Ron Jones https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRjiZZyD7n4

Gaston August 22-September 3 Category 3 Hurricane 120mph 956mb: Ninja Tuna Kalimba by Mr. Scruff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBY0HRChalA

Depression 8 August 28-September 1 Tropical Depression 35mph 1009mb: iMovie Neon Theme Music by Apple
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-rtuqMveUw

Hermine August 28-September 6 Category 1 Hurricane 80mph 982mb: YTPMV Rainbow Astley by EnteiTheYTPMVer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RtNGnP6sNU

Ian September 12-16 Tropical Storm 60mph 994mb: What is love by Haddaway
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuDEP6eFkeA

Julia September 14-19 Tropical Storm 40mph 1007mb: Life is a Dream by Jerry Goldsmith
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6YX2yrv8tg

Karl September 14-25 Tropical Storm 70mph 988mb: TROLOLOLOVERLOAD by cs188 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVsM3siRNtU

Lisa September 19-25 Tropical Storm 50mph 999mb: Gangnam Style Instrumental by Psy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9WUB1QF_4U

Matthew September 28-October 10 Category 5 hurricane 160mph 934mb: Trololo Dubstep Remix HD by OpsSoSHD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_044l0rbZg

Nicole October 4-October 18 Category 4 hurricane 130mph 950mb: Stars and Stripes forever by John Philip Sousa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mRn9chmRAY

Otto November 21-November 26 Category 2 hurricane 110mph 975mb: Throwback Galaxy theme from Super Mario Galaxy 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlU-oBPiOJs

.
Thanks for the new blog, Dr. Masters.
I had no idea GPS signals were affected by wind. Who'da thunk it?
Pegasus Flight Profile





Please .......Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.Thank you all,if you want to talk politics take it to YOUR Blog.
Quoting 25. auburn:

Please .......Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.Thank you all,if you want to talk politics take it to YOUR Blog.


Good to see you back!
Quoting 20. elioe:

sent you a wumail
So is Trumps signing a New Executive Order on regulation just this morning, or the 1 for 2 deal..."off topic?"

As regulations can be anything from EPA regs, Science dissemination and other SCIENCE related stuff.

Or is this a GAG order David?

I only ask cuz I gotz a 14 hr one for linking in the Judges Ban Order, while multiple posts on the subject went on for 24 hours.

So let's get some clarity and some clear advice on going forward here.

Or we can can just remove the blogs as well...since obviously the site is falling apart as fast as the admin.

Thanks.
Quoting 25. auburn:

Please .......Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.Thank you all,if you want to talk politics take it to YOUR Blog.


Thank you.

On the weather front; the Alberta Clipper has dropped about 3 inches of snow and still snowing moderately, we should pick up another inch or two. The temps are forecast to drop below zero again later this week. It is rather windy west of here so hopefully that stays away to keep drifting down.

Ice fishing has slowed down as usual in the dead of winter.

Have a good day all
Quoting 28. Patrap:

So is Trumps signing a New Executive Order on regulation just this morning, or the 1 for 2 deal..."off topic?"

As regulations can be anything from EPA regs, Science dissemination and other SCIENCE related stuff.

Or is this a GAG order David?

Thanks.


Sure.If it pertains to science, science policy and includes reference to such in the post, Impeachment is not part of that.
Quoting 6. vanderwaalselectrics:



Terrible news of course. I was on Michael Mann's facebook page, highly critical of his views because as you all know including the moderators, I am showing that CO2 is an electrical forcing in clouds and it's not about CO2 as a green house gas. One poster said it was like if the US and Israel went to war. Of course that had me thinking about how I am not a fan of Israel hording the water in the region. I made a post about the second derivative of sine and was banned by Mann. The point is that colder SSTs move to warmer and then warmer to colder with ENSO and other teleconnections, which means that the second derivative of the forcing should also be harmonic. That then is consistent with cO2 coming out of solution with surface lows more with colder SSTs, which it in fact does because colder oceans hold more carbonation. As an alarmist AND a skeptic, who thinks CO2 works in other ways than the main, I think this election proves the part about the truth shall set you free. I hope that the weather and climate community LEARNS from this disaster.
Not a surprise Dr. Mann banned you; he's an actual scientist with many peer-review articles to his credit, so he has absolutely no patience for those who are "highly critical of his views" while espousing nothing more than untested or debunked crackpot theories. Your takeaway should be this: instead of tilting at every windmill you encounter armed with nothing more than an unearned belligerence and some stuff you read on the internet, do some research, write up an article, and submit it for peer-review, where real scientists will try to point out your theory's flaws. If they succeed in tearing it apart, you know it's time for you to admit defeat and move on. If, OTOH, your paper stands up under that type of scrutiny, then congratulations: you'll receive the riches and fame you deserve.

Deal?
Quoting 30. auburn:



Sure.If it pertains to science, science policy and includes reference to such in the post, Impeachment is not part of that.



How so if it along with the other EO's are now deemed illegal, we cant post on it...?

I added to my post so maybe read it again.

If yer gonna mod the site.... Do it full time at least from 8am to 5pm edt or other.

As I woke up this morning to get ready for work I saw a white substance outside on all the cars,trees,lawns and sidewalks.It looked familiar but I didn't quite recognize it.When I went out to leave for work I picked up a palm full that was about a inch and 2 centimeters deep and it melted in my hand a minute later.I then went on google to ask what this white powdery substance was that was like frozen rain and it said something about snow.
Quoting 32. Patrap:



How so if it along with the other EO's are now deemed illegal, we cant post on it...?

I added to my post so maybe read it again.



The rules are simple..easy to follow.I don't know of your ban,I wasn't here when it took place and I don't know the circumstances.All I am asking is that everyone follow the rules.The mods are doing the job they were given as best we can.Thanks for all the great on topic info you give .
Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

Not a surprise Dr. Mann banned you; he's an actual scientist with many peer-review articles to his credit, so he has absolutely no patience for those who are "highly critical of his views" while espousing nothing more than untested or debunked crackpot theories. Your takeaway should be this: instead of tilting at every windmill you encounter armed with nothing more than an unearned belligerence and some stuff you read on the internet, do some research, write up an article, and submit it for peer-review, where real scientists will try to point out your theory's flaws. If they succeed in tearing it apart, you know it's time for you to admit defeat and move on. If, OTOH, your paper stands up under that type of scrutiny, then congratulations: you'll receive the riches and fame you deserve.

Deal?


Dr.Mann and His Attorney discussed this at His Legal Symposium at the AGU conference in San Francisco last Month.

I attended that one at the Marriot and t'was a excellent Hour indeed.

I learned oodles of noodle stuff.



Okie Dokie, was just wundering out loud,

Thanks
Quoting 1. 1Zach1:

BNO News ‏@BNONews 5m5 minutes ago
The U.S. will change its course on climate change and will abandon a global pact to cut emissions, a Trump transition official says - REU
Jeez what a royal idiot, guy has no experience in politics, and has no education in science. It's like we are reliving the 1960s all over again. Very disappointed, but you know what Climate Change is real and not one man on this Earth or his followers can debunk the scientific truths, so it goes back to people who understand the science to mitigate against the risks to life and property. Guess what the impacts are already being felt in South Florida with recent floods going on along Biscayne Blvd. sea level rising only exacerbating the flooding that occurs during the King Tides.

Obama last year had given $500 million for climate change programs, which is a good thing. Hopefully, it will be used wisely to educate the public on the risks to life and property. Sea levels are already rising in South Florida leading to flooding along the coastline, especially Biscayne Bay where toxic human wastes have washed up from old sewer lines. Some of that funding can be used to build a better irrigation system and upgrade the Hoover Dyke along the Indian River and Lake Okeechobee. "Over the years, the quality of the flood control around the lake has grown, resulting in damage to the environment. This has also led to the recent algae bloom (2016) by preventing the natural flow of rivers from the lake to flush the algae out to sea."
Ten years ago today, this report was issued:

Investigation documents political interference with climate science communication
Atmosphere of Pressure, an investigative report by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) and the Government Accountability Project (GAP) has uncovered new evidence of widespread political interference in federal climate science.

In current news:

House plans votes to kill 5 Obama rules
House Republicans are beginning the process this week of throwing several landmark Obama administration rules into the fire. And the Senate could follow suit within days.

The House Rules Committee has scheduled meetings for today and tomorrow to discuss debate parameters for resolutions to void several energy and environment rules.
..
Quoting 8. CaneGirl:

Hi Everyone - Longtime lurker. I have a friend who I am trying to convince that global warming is real. Does anyone have suggestions on some great articles that explain what is global warming and why it is occurring? My friend does not have a strong science background. Many thanks in advance.


Start here:
https://skepticalscience.com/big-picture.html

Then if that goes well, maybe upgrade to here:
https://skepticalscience.com/history-climate-scie nce.html
Quoting 6. vanderwaalselectrics:



Terrible news of course. I was on Michael Mann's facebook page, highly critical of his views because as you all know including the moderators, I am showing that CO2 is an electrical forcing in clouds and it's not about CO2 as a green house gas. .... [snip]


Big claims require big evidence. I'm sure you are working on scientific proof and will start heading for publication?
A search on Google Scholar using the phrase "climate change" yielded approximately 115,000 returns since 2016 alone.

Quoting 31. Neapolitan:

Not a surprise Dr. Mann banned you; he's an actual scientist with many peer-review articles to his credit, so he has absolutely no patience for those who are "highly critical of his views" while espousing nothing more than untested or debunked crackpot theories. Your takeaway should be this: instead of tilting at every windmill you encounter armed with nothing more than an unearned belligerence and some stuff you read on the internet, do some research, write up an article, and submit it for peer-review, where real scientists will try to point out your theory's flaws. If they succeed in tearing it apart, you know it's time for you to admit defeat and move on. If, OTOH, your paper stands up under that type of scrutiny, then congratulations: you'll receive the riches and fame you deserve.

Deal?


My background is arguments and I get paid
Quoting 8. CaneGirl:

Hi Everyone - Longtime lurker. I have a friend who I am trying to convince that global warming is real. Does anyone have suggestions on some great articles that explain what is global warming and why it is occurring? My friend does not have a strong science background. Many thanks in advance.


Despite the fact that warmers like Dr. Mann got in front of Congress and testified and made their case a politician like Trump who says we really don't know, won. In everyday life people like try to make the case. I myself as both an alarmist and a skeptic get it from both you and your friend. Here are a few fundamental facts I would put up. First weather patterns like El Nino have become extreme. There was a 500 year el Nino in 1997-8 and another bigger one the past couple years. A dampened system with CO2 as a dependent variable would predictably and immediately make the cloud behaviors that cause el Ninos and other teleconnections to be more extreme. This change in the way clouds behave can take place without the water vapor feedbacks that skeptics say are lacking. So for instance a drought in California where I live which is about a lack of water vapor is still consistent with this direct change in cloud behaviors that bring on extreme ENSO events because it's about carbonation going directly into clouds and changing them, not about more water vapor. Next I would talk about how the MSU data and the ice melting data all is skewed to the northern hemisphere showing anomalies. This is consistent with the fact that there are more electrical currents in the northern hemisphere because lightning which produces those currents are 90 percent over land and most land is in the northern hemisphere. The melting anomalies occur at a specific time in the arctic, again consistent with peak lightning. The statistical chances of these kinds of 2 and 3 standard deviation anomalies appearing in the ice sheet by random chance are about 1 in a million, and a forcing that would do this AT THE SPECIFIC TIME OF YEAR WHEN IT DOES in a specific place that it does, instead of all over, is over 1 in a million. This rules out the green house gas theory but at the same time points to something occurring which cannot be by random chance--which is CO2s electrical change to the way clouds behave..
“ However, funding does not currently exist to provide the CYGNSS data in near real time to hurricane forecasters; up to a six day lag is anticipated between the time a measurement is taken and when the final data is processed and made available.”`

Just curious, If $157 million was spent on the system, why can't the processing power and bandwidth be found to provide near real time data... I am using a second hand 9 year old dell 540 modified with an SSD and a Radeon video card to process the internet very adequately...
#49

I do believe the werd "Funding" addressed dat.

Or maybe I'm not up on ALt stuff as of Monday
Quoting 30. auburn:



Sure.If it pertains to science, science policy and includes reference to such in the post, Impeachment is not part of that.


Is this acceptable?

"But there’s another reason the world should be concerned about the form this growing disillusionment and outrage has taken: Right-wing populism threatens climate action."

"The Paris Climate Agreement — the culmination of a more-than-20-year-long effort by the United Nations — is already in peril, thanks to America’s right-wing populists. It is a devastating irony that less than a week after the Paris Climate Agreement went into effect, America elected a climate change denialist who promptly announced he would pull America out of the deal."

If its not acceptable please just remove it, no need to ban me. At least I'll know.
Quoting 33. washingtonian115:

As I woke up this morning to get ready for work I saw a white substance outside on all the cars,trees,lawns and sidewalks.It looked familiar but I didn't quite recognize it.When I went out to leave for work I picked up a palm full that was about a inch and 2 centimeters deep and it melted in my hand a minute later.I then went on google to ask what this white powdery substance was that was like frozen rain and it said something about snow.

Wasn't sure where you were headed with with, Wash! We got less than an inch in Fairfax. CWG is saying slight chance for more "snow" on Friday, better chance Sunday night.
Quoting 54. 1Zach1:


Wasn't sure where you were headed with with, Wash! We got less than an inch in Fairfax. CWG is saying slight chance for more "snow" on Friday, better chance Sunday night.
lol.Yeah I saw the forecast and we could be seeing more of Natures homemade baby powder more than twice this week.The GFS shows about 5 to 6 inches from the Sunday madness but we'll see.If any month can pull of snow here in D.C then its February.
Quoting 25. auburn:

Please .......Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Do not quote content which violates the Rules of the Road.Thank you all,if you want to talk politics take it to YOUR Blog.


Thanks.

You may have to be tough, even on the the good guys. However, better now than in a tornado swarm or during hurricane season. Politics is so emotional that good sense has a difficult time living in the same space.

Cheers
Qazulight
Air Pollution Kills More Than 18,100 in Bulgaria Every Year
according to The Lancet, a British medical journal.

Seems like a case of bad weather location plus burning fossil fuels...Fine dust particles are of particular concern, being generated not only from the use of coal and road traffic, but from weather conditions such as fogs and lack of wind.


washingaway~ That is totally acceptable..even has the words climate change & Paris Agreement in the article..you get a plus:)
Regarding Trump’s attacks on science:

In a tweet Former National Park Service Director John Jarvis give us his thoughts on climate change and "national policy".

Zack Labe:
‏@ZLabe

Current #Arctic sea ice health looks to be in very bad shape: thin, large cracks, & susceptible

(Graphic by A-Team https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic, 1611.2250.html)


https://www.tesla.com/careers/search#/

Tesla has about 2000 jobs open world wide. When people talk about "cutting emissions" they seem to think it will happen by magic with the current technology. It can happen, but a few billion people will have to leave the planet. Since I have not been elected tyrant of the universe, then that probably is not going to happen.

So that leaves us with technology, it is one thing to develop and deploy software to change the world, like Microsoft and then Google did, and quite another to deploy hardware.

Today, Tesla has not quite finished the first of what will need to be several Giga Factories to make electric cars happen. Today Tesla has about 2000 job openings posted on its website. Just hiring 2000 people and bringing them on board is a daunting task. To actually get them to be productive together is another.

What is more, if one would go visit a steam threshers reunion.

http://rollag.com/

You would get a sense of just how much a change in technology decreases work and increases wealth. (Hint: it takes 3 people on a steam tractor to keep it running. ) Electric cars and battery technology has been birthed. It is alive and does not need an incubator. In other words, politicians do not matter. We can only move so fast, and we have extreme economic incentives to do so.

Just to give a hint. 80 percent of the oil consumed in the United States is consumed for motor fuels. All of the work, and there is a lot of work, to get the oil out of the ground and to a refinery, and get it refined and get it into a car, and the keep the Rube Goldberg device we call an engine running is huge. (Really huge, I am telling you HUGE, you can believe me on that!*) The electric car gets rid of a lot of that.

Currently, natural gas is cheaper to burn than coal. The plants to burn it are coming online. Also the first of a new breed of nuclear reactors is now in the licensing stage. Finally, solar plus storage and just storage on the grid is becoming viable.

When you look at the economic inefficiencies in the old way of doing things compared to the new way, you realize, the old way is toast.

Do not be alarmed by policy. We may be facing extinction, or not, but the current administration will have no effect on that outcome. The die are cast.

Cheers
Qazulight

*Sorry I couldn't help myself
Phys.org (click on any article's title to access it) - January 30:

Storms filled 37 percent of CA snow-water deficit

Note: original article from NASA / JPL - Jan. 27 ---> link: "The California Department of Water Resources will release the results of its most recent snow survey on Feb. 2. Final data will be available at that time."

(...) "Early in the January storm cycle, lower mountain elevations received some rain, but the vast majority of the mountain precipitation has come as snow -- which is exactly the way we need this precipitation," said Thomas Painter, a snow scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, California, and principal investigator of NASA's Airborne Snow Observatory. "As snow, it releases to reservoirs and ecosystems more gradually and efficiently over the summer months."

Noah Molotch, who led the new study, cautioned that there is still a long way to go before California makes up its snow-water deficit completely. Molotch is director of CWEST and a research scientist at JPL.

"When the snow stopped falling five years ago, the state had to tap into its groundwater reserves to keep up," Molotch said. "One snowy winter won't be able to entirely reverse that, but there is, at least, some cautious optimism."

Molotch indicated that, with the much-needed snow, the recent storms also brought some flood risk.

"The concern moving forward relates to what happens with the weather for the rest of the winter," said Molotch. "Reservoirs across the Sierra foothills are now relatively full. If we get another intense atmospheric river with warmer air temperatures, that could lead to melting of the snowpack, and the risk for rain-induced flooding is considerable."

"The start to winter has been the best California has seen since 2011 and gives water managers hope for relief from what has been a historically dry five-year period," said David Rizzardo, chief of Snow Surveys and Water Supply Forecasting for the California Department of Water Resources. "The valuable data gathered by the CWEST and NASA Earth science teams gives the California Department of Water Resources a broader sense for how much water is being stored in our snowpack, allowing us to fine-tune vital seasonal runoff estimates, which are used by water managers and reservoir operators across the state." (...)

Storms preview ocean-rise damage to California cities, roads

This Jan. 14, 2017 photo provided by Fraser Shilling shows flooding along Highway 37 near Vallejo, Calif. Ocean rise already is worsening the floods and high tides sweeping California this stormy winter, climate experts say, and this month's damage and deaths highlight that even a state known as a global leader in fighting climate change has yet to tackle some of the hardest work of dealing with it.

Role of terrestrial biosphere in counteracting climate change may have been underestimated

Study reveals substantial evidence of holographic universe
From LA Times:

What all those dead trees mean for the Sierra Nevada


The U.S. Forest Service estimates that since 2010, more than 102 million drought-stressed and beetle-ravaged trees have died across 7.7 million acres of California forest.

The ponderosa pine had taken root decades before the Revolutionary War, making a stately stand on this western Sierra Nevada slope for some 300 years, Nate Stephenson figures.

Then came the beetle blitzkrieg. Now the tree is a dab in the gray and rusty death stain smeared across the mountain range.

At the base of its massive trunk, a piece of bark has been cut off, revealing an etched swirl of insect trails. Higher up, naked branches reach out, as if from a many-armed scarecrow.

“This was alive until the drought killed it,” Stephenson says mournfully.

The U.S. Forest Service estimates that since 2010, more than 102 million drought-stressed and beetle-ravaged trees have died across 7.7 million acres of California forest. More than half of those died last year alone.

Exacerbated by anti-wildfire policies that produced a crowded forest more vulnerable to drought, the massive dieback is unprecedented in the recorded history of the Sierra.

The beetle epidemic is transforming the 4,500-foot to 6,000-foot elevation band of the central and southern range for decades to come, if not permanently. The sheer scale of mortality means that outside of developed areas, it’s likely that most of the tree corpses will be left to topple over.

It will takes centuries to replace the legions of majestic old pines that have succumbed — if that is even possible in a warmer future that promises to alter the forest in ways ecologists can only guess.

“We don’t know under the new conditions what things will do well,” says Christy Brigham, the top scientist and acting superintendent of Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks.

But she’s pretty sure of one thing: The western Sierra pine forest as it was 100 years ago is not coming back.

“The world has changed…” Brigham says. “We’re never going to be able to get back to where we were before.”

Read more here
From Science:

Los Alamos releases 16 years of GPS solar weather data


The Van Allen belts, two giant donuts of radiation encircling Earth, play a vital role in the planet’s resilience, and susceptibility, to space weather. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center/Scientific Visualization Studio

It’s not often that a scientific discipline gains a 23-satellite constellation overnight. But today, space weather scientists are reaping such a windfall, as the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico has released 16 years of radiation measurements recorded by GPS satellites.

Although billions of people globally use data from GPS satellites, they remain U.S. military assets. Scientists have long sought the data generated by sensors used to monitor the status of the satellites, which operate in the heavy radiation of medium-Earth orbit and can be vulnerable to solar storms. But few have been allowed to tap this resource. “There’s a general hesitancy to broadcast even fairly innocuous things out to the broad community,” says Marc Kippen, a program manager at Los Alamos, which developed the radiation-measuring instruments.

That attitude changed in October 2016, when the outgoing Obama administration issued an executive order aimed at preparing the country for extreme space weather. Such bursts in charged particles, originating in a solar flare or coronal mass ejection, could disable the electrical power grid or divert flights away from the Arctic, where radiation exposure is heightened.

The GPS data, which dates from December 2000, fill a hole in studies of space weather, the complex interplay of Earth’s magnetic field with bombarding radiation from cosmic rays and the sun. These satellites operate exposed to the Van Allen belts, two donuts of highly energetic radiation wrapped up in Earth’s magnetism. Although purpose-built spacecraft, like NASA’s Van Allen probes, have studied the belt, nothing can beat the GPS system for the frequency and duration of its observations, according to Steven Morley, a Los Alamos researcher.

Read more here
Quoting 62. Xandra:


This really does go back to 4th grade biology. When you have an over population catastrophic disease and starvation occurs. This travesty was facilitated by the intervention man and the drought was simply the trigger. For a century we have been and fighting wild fires which are natural and necessary, then the state also culled virtually all logging practices. The result was too many trees competing for limited water and in too close of proximity to each other. Combine that with the beetle and the drought and the trees simply couldn't cope, a healthy forest groomed either by natural fire or man would have weathered the drought and beetle far better.
Its amazing what's going on in the satellite world while I sit on my roof and watch them go by after sunset on clear nights. I've been wondering about them now since 1957 when I think the first Sputnik was lunched and the world seemed so big in those days of steam engines and propeller aircraft.
Now I write a note and a few seconds later it can be read all over the world on this site.

Meanwhile; here's a first for Spain I think that I have spotted:-
Tonight on the weather news at 10 pm the weather presenter Monica Lopez, was using charts from Tropicaltitbits and I thought that I might be one of only a handful, if that, of people in Spain who know about Levi Cohen's site.
So that's it for tonight from beneath a clear sky and a new moon amongst other newer earthlings satellite's.
The official Tropical Cyclone Report on 2016's Hurricane Hermine is now available on the NHC website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092016_Hermine .pdf

@Mike_Clay A Frost Advisory for late tonight: Inland Citrus, Inland Hernando, Inland Pasco, Inland Hills, & Polk.





Quoting 55. washingtonian115:

lol.Yeah I saw the forecast and we could be seeing more of Natures homemade baby powder more than twice this week.The GFS shows about 5 to 6 inches from the Sunday madness but we'll see.If any month can pull of snow here in D.C then its February.


Substituting this stuff for baby powder is likely to lead to an unhappy baby.

Yep February is our snowiest month even though it's the shortest.

And I remember reading about the winter of 1941-42 with about 1.5" total up to March 30. March 30 produced over a foot more.
69. vis0
"(Trump) could do it by executive order tomorrow or he could do it as part of a larger package,"

let me! let me guess!

The "larger pkg" either means we lose more money by wasting more money in doing thing that hurt combined with delaying or outright cancelling what would save us money in the long run.

Think of it as Mother and Father after your birth sit in a room and say should we save little by little so that by your birthday of 14 you have enough money to pay for a private college or should we buy 2 sports cars now, take a month off to splurge at Las Vegas spend more fun time for us, non or little time for little (add $keptics name here) as to show little (add $keptics name here) how to drive a boat, play sports, learn to play a  musical instrument, fishing  or build a strong oceanfront home parents  action? :: ...hmmm  LETS SPEND NOW will play the lottery later and make all the lost money back later.


ITS CALLED IRRESPONSIBILITY or Trump passing the buck.

The other thing i can see the Trump group doing is having Trump and those that go along with Trumps deal stand in rooms filled with mirrors so it looks like  million and millions of people are together with Trump's deals....so the "larger pkg" was that there where more "people" joining Trump.


We're (mainly those good folks hoodwinked by Trump to follow along) going to reflect back and think how did this happen in the 'ol GOOD USofA?
Again real science is easily proven via basic science, "alternate truth" by its
recreated name is not the Truth. ;        TRUTH       &nb sp;  can stand up to lies by it just being the
TRUTH.
Adding any other word to Truth means those words are lies being dressed up in Truth's clothing.

NCEP GFS past 30 days mean 2m air temperature anomalies.
Source: karstenhaustein.com/climate

Zach Labe on Twitter (Jan. 30):
"Unfortunately, influxes of 'warm' air from both the Pacific/Atlantic Oceans this week will likely continue preventing Arctic sea ice growth."
Oh, I see.

NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent (NSIDC calculates daily extent using a five-day average of the data) dropping today: Link
Price of Shrimp Impacted by Gulf of Mexico “Dead Zone”

https://coastalscience.noaa.gov/news/coastal-poll ution/price-of-shrimp-affected-by-gulf-of-mexico-d ead-zone/
From BAS:

Scientists explain how meltwater reaches ocean depths

An international team of researchers has discovered why fresh water, melted from Antarctic ice sheets, is often detected below the surface of the ocean, rather than rising to the top above denser seawater. The team found that the Earth’s rotation influences the way meltwater behaves – keeping it at depths of several hundred metres.

[...]

The researchers made their discovery during an expedition in the Southern Ocean, led by Professor Karen Heywood of UEA, on British Antarctic Survey’s Royal Research Ship James Clark Ross. The trip was undertaken in 2014 as part of the NERC-funded iSTAR programme4. The team measured turbulence experienced by meltwater as it flowed out of a cave beneath the Pine Island Glacier – one of the fastest melting glaciers in Antarctica. They used a VMP23 (Vertical Microstructure Profiler) to detect subtle fluctuations in the water.

The scientists discovered the meltwater ends up settling hundreds of metres down, because as it tries to rise above the surrounding denser seawater, it is affected by the Earth’s rotation. This makes it spin very quickly around its vertical axis, resulting in the ejection of meltwater filaments in a sideways motion into the surrounding sea – preventing the water from rising to the surface.

Scientists are interested in the depth at which water from Antarctic ice sheets enters the ocean because it has differing effects on global ocean circulation and climate. Surface meltwater makes the upper layers of the Southern Ocean lighter. This is thought to slow down the sinking of those waters in the region, and to favour the expansion of Antarctic sea ice. Injecting the same meltwater at depth is believed to have the opposite effect, favouring sinking of surface waters and the retreat of Antarctic sea ice.

[...]

Click here to read full article.

More information: Alberto C. Naveira Garabato et al, Vigorous lateral export of the meltwater outflow from beneath an Antarctic ice shelf, Nature (2017). DOI: 10.1038/nature20825
I just want some clarification; are they removing the blog/blogs?
Sydney's hottest month

Sydney just endured their hottest month in more than 150 years.

January was exceptionally warm in the capital city during both the days and nights.

The average minimum temperature of 21.56 degrees during January beats the previous record by more than half a degree.

The city's long-standing monthly average maximum temperature record was harder to beat. Today needed to reach at least 35.7 degrees to eclipse the monthly maximum of 29.5 set back in 1896. By 10am, the city had hit 36.6C. No worries.

Combining the minimum and maximum temperatures during this month, Sydney's average January temperature was over 25.5 degrees. This feat is more than three degrees above the long-term average pushes out the previous record of 24.95 degrees from 1991.

Western Sydney also felt the heat during the month. Richmond registered their hottest January on record in terms of minimum, maximum and average temperatures. Data is available back to 1940 for Richmond.

The statistics are in and they justify any complaints about the weather in recent weeks. This January was the hottest calendar month ever recorded at Sydney Observatory Hill.

- Weatherzone

© Weatherzone 2017
Our forecast:

Snow, then snow with snow and then more snow... and then some more:

"
Discussion...

Tonight through Wednesday...short term begins mainly monitoring
the upcoming winter event. WV imagery showing nicely the two main
features coming together...with a front developing in southern
Alberta...and pac northwest moisture starting to stream into the area.
Overall still expecting these two features to meet up across the
area around midnight tonight and start producing widespread snow
from north to south. As advertised all weekend long...where this
front stalls will determine where the highest amounts of snow will
be found. This mornings model runs indicated a further south
progression. This feature does have ample moisture in a thick
dendritic layer over 1000 M at times. So current thinking is
widespread light to moderate snow is expected for the morning
commute on Tuesday...mainly from the southern Rocky Mountain front
to Great Falls to near Lewistown and south. These favorable
features follow the front...and push south later
Tuesday...stalling near or just south of a line from Helena to
White Sulphur Springs. It will be this line and south that looks
to receive continued snow into Wednesday morning...with Helena
being right on the edge of things. Wednesday afternoon will see
another slight nudge of this front southward...diminishing snow to
just flurries or scattered light snow north of a line from Butte
to Bozeman...while along this line and south...light snow
continues. An upper level disturbance then tries to push this
front back north...returning light snow to many areas. Just how
far north is still being determined...but looks like at this point
a line from Helena to White Sulphur Springs is expected...with
Great Falls being the furthest north it could push. Given all
this...placed warnings in the areas that have the highest
confidence of seeing this front stall and produce prolonged light
to moderate snow. Advisories are issued to areas where light to
occasional moderate snow will cause impacts...especially during
the morning commute on Tuesday. Zones in the south look to see
light to moderate snow linger into Thursday with Little Break...so
extended those highlight through this period. Another topic not
to Forget is the potential for cold temperatures Wednesday. Latest
guidance hinting morning lows may be near zero...or perhaps dip
below zero in areas with fresh snow. Highs will then struggle to
get into the teens for these same areas. Anglin



Wednesday night through Monday...snow continues over southwest
Montana Wednesday night and Thursday, with lift produced by a
thermally direct ageostrophic circulation under the right
entrance region of a jet streak aloft. Ridging over the Gulf of
Alaska weakens on Thursday as a closed upper low moves closer to
the U.S. West Coast. These changes release a shortwave trough
from its position over southern British Columbia. This shortwave
crosses through Montana Thursday night, possibly enhancing
snowfall rates over a wider area for a few hours. Shortwave
ridging follows overnight Thursday, finally bringing a pause in
the snowfall for most areas by Friday morning, except for
continued snow showers over mountain areas. Little, if any
snowfall is expected for the north- Central Plains during this
period. The Pacific low moves ashore and rapidly weakens while
diffusing across the pacnw Friday night and Saturday. Mountain
snow showers will continue through the weekend amid an unsettled
northwest flow. This pattern can favor locally heavy snowfall
over the Bridger and Madison ranges of southwest Montana. Model
solutions diverge starting Sunday, so have maintained widespread
chances for precip, informed by climatology. Temperatures dip
into the single digits above and below zero Wednesday and
Thursday night. Temperatures moderate through the weekend, though
still around 5 to 10 degrees below normal. "
Earth's orbital variations, sea ice synch glacial periods

Summary:
New research shows how sea ice growth in the Southern Hemisphere during certain orbital periods could control the pace of ice ages on Earth.


Link
Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass
Three new plants in California show how lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid.


Link
Quoting 73. hotroddan:

I just want some clarification; are they removing the blog/blogs?


Not to my knowledge. Just Wunderphotos, for no good reason I can fathom.

Let's assume images are stored at 4K resolution using JPEG compression. Typical compression ratios 10:1, so each image would be approximately 2MB. Let's say there's 2 million photos. So grand total you're looking at around 4TB, which is practically nothing when it comes to major sites like this one. They already have the interconnects, load balancers, etc. A new rack to support it could be had for a few thousand tops (if they even needed it).

My guess is that they just couldn't monetize it.
Quoting 73. hotroddan:

I just want some clarification; are they removing the blog/blogs?


What has been happening to the blogs. Why is everyone's join date January 1, 1970??
Quoting 64. civEngineer:



Please explain the collapse of the pinon/juniper forest on the Southwest flank of the Valles Caldera.
Please explain the large fires I been tracking in Siberia for years.

I assure you the the reasons you cite in your comment are not at work in these two cases.
Quoting 79. AussieStorm:



What has been happening to the blogs. Why is everyone's join date January 1, 1970??


You are always a day late. just kidding All the join dates that I see are December 31, 1969 and this includes yours.

I have not seen you post any comments lately. How have you been doing?
Quoting 73. hotroddan:

I just want some clarification; are they removing the blog/blogs?

From Dr. Jeff Masters a few/several weeks ago:

Sorry for the continued problems with the blogs. The admins are looking at it again, but the issue is difficult to resolve since we are transitioning to serving our pages from a 3rd-party source (Amazon Web Services) that doesn't give us the sort of diagnostics we need to really dig into the issue. In the longer term, we are committed to junking the entire blog software system in about three months, and will transition to a 3rd party blog software system called "Drupal."
Jeff Masters
Quoting 79. AussieStorm:



What has been happening to the blogs. Why is everyone's join date January 1, 1970??

Yeah, I don't know where you were but we all joined on Dec 31, 1969. It's too bad, you missed a hell of a party.
Quoting 77. RobertWC:

Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass
Three new plants in California show how lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid.


Link


Lithiumdd
Quoting 77. RobertWC:



Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass
Three new plants in California show how lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid.


Link


Lithium Ion technology was commercializes by the Japanese in early 1990's, and was the last that scaled.
It has been a long time for anything new.
I would not count on this for a storage solution.
Battery technology is at a standstill, other than making old tech more efficient.
Quoting 78. Xyrus2000:



Not to my knowledge. Just Wunderphotos, for no good reason I can fathom.

Let's assume images are stored at 4K resolution using JPEG compression. Typical compression ratios 10:1, so each image would be approximately 2MB. Let's say there's 2 million photos. So grand total you're looking at around 4TB, which is practically nothing when it comes to major sites like this one. They already have the interconnects, load balancers, etc. A new rack to support it could be had for a few thousand tops (if they even needed it).

My guess is that they just couldn't monetize it.


A senior member here (sorry, can't remember whom), stateed that they are moving everything to a new server and suggested that the task of moving all those photos was daunting.
Link

The National Hurricane Center finally releasing their Tropical Cyclone Report (TCR) for Hurricane Hermine today made me realize just how much I loved storm chasing. Luckily I've already found a way I can make money again, so I'm gonna rebuild my storm chase fund soon.

P.S. Losing your storm-chasing virginity is awesome. I highly recommend it.
Quoting 84. cytochromeC:



Lithiumdd

Lithium Ion technology was commercializes by the Japanese in early 1990's, and was the last that scaled.
It has been a long time for anything new.
I would not count on this for a storage solution.
Battery technology is at a standstill, other than making old tech more efficient.


I follow battery technology closely. Standstill is the opposite of what is going on. There are pretty significant advances coming into production continually, and there significant new chemistries coming out of the labs monthly. These take about 5 years to get from lab to the market. Of course the vast majority never make it, but occasionally one does, and it tends to be a game changer.

Additionally, I have seen advances in the underlying materials science coming online. The announcements sometimes come daily, sometimes weekly. They come from every corner of the globe and in every facet of the science. The changes range from mathmatical theories to practical new diagnostic machines. Don't laugh at the mathematicians, several of the advances in chemistry were outlined by mathematicians decades before the chemist were able to work out the science. Don't under estimate the value of the diagnostic machines, they allow the scientist to prove, or disprove the theories and create solutions to the puzzles that open the door to practical products.

I have never been more excited about the future than I am today.

Even as I am almost giddy with the bright future of this planet, I lament the loss of the reefs, and I do mean loss, most is gone and we will be lucky to preserve even a small piece to show our children. And I lament the doom of south Florida and south Lousianna. Even with that, the future is extremely bright.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 87. Qazulight:



I follow battery technology closely. Standstill is the opposite of what is going on. There are pretty significant advances coming into production continually, and there significant new chemistries coming out of the labs monthly. These take about 5 years to get from lab to the market. Of course the vast majority never make it, but occasionally one does, and it tends to be a game changer.

Additionally, I have seen advances in the underlying materials science coming online. The announcements sometimes come daily, sometimes weekly. They come from every corner of the globe and in every facet of the science. The changes range from mathmatical theories to practical new diagnostic machines. Don't laugh at the mathematicians, several of the advances in chemistry were outlined by mathematicians decades before the chemist were able to work out the science. Don't under estimate the value of the diagnostic machines, they allow the scientist to prove, or disprove the theories and create solutions to the puzzles that open the door to practical products.

I have never been more excited about the future than I am today.

Even as I am almost giddy with the bright future of this planet, I lament the loss of the reefs, and I do mean loss, most is gone and we will be lucky to preserve even a small piece to show our children. And I lament the doom of south Florida and south Lousianna. Even with that, the future is extremely bright.

Cheers
Qazulight


We shall see--
Nothing has scaled for quite some time.
I hope your optimism is warranted, but I have been observing the tech also.
Quoting 84. cytochromeC:

Must have missed the Sunday Morning Show. They had a thing on new battery technology.. It is going way beyond lithium or even what we might think a battery should look like. These were new technologies already put to use.

There was hydro battery where they were pumping a lake up a mountain when electricity is cheap at night and then letting it run down the mountain in the day harnessing electricity from turbines.

There was ice batteries (Ice Bear), sits on building roofs.. that froze vats of water at night when power is plentiful ..endlessly recyclable and very efficient for AC. Let it melt in the day to directly cool air for the Air Conditioners. They showed a vineyard using these.

There is this huge fly wheel looking battery from Amber Kinetics that spins up at night on cheap electricity, it is levitated to reduce friction. As it spins down during the day the energy is released. Never looses charging capacity, can't catch on fire, lasts for decades..operating temperature range..-40 to 50C.


NOVA is doing a show February 1st.. The Search For The Super Battery. Expect to be delighted by more new batteries...

Quoting 77. RobertWC:

Tesla’s Battery Revolution Just Reached Critical Mass
Three new plants in California show how lithium-ion storage is ready to power the grid.


Link

There is a PBS Nova show coming soon, this week I think, about new batteries. I saw a preview of the show and it looks promising.
Quoting 90. Skyepony:


Must have missed the Sunday Morning Show.

We must have been typing at the same time. I couldn't remember where I saw the preview until your post.
93. vis0

Quoting 76. RobertWC:

Earth's orbital variations, sea ice synch glacial periods

Summary:
New research shows how sea ice growth in the Southern Hemisphere during certain orbital periods could control the pace of ice ages on Earth.


Link
They are not sure how the  "softer" 100,000 year cycle work and have included the 21,000 year  cycle the latter deals with precession to explain how both these cycle join up to create the 100,00 year ice ages. 

Anywho remember i state there are 5 types of Radon AGES AND 5 TYPES OF ICE AGES. 

Radon ages lead to physical mutations as developing the thumb, while ice ages deal with mutating the brain via the altering of brain to magnetic pulses the brain/body has (just theorized 2 years ago (pulses) , posted it on my blogbyte 4 years ago.as "lightgates"  Those blogbytes i been deleted so look for it at internet archives.  Don't confuse the pulses with the magnetic features the bones have -more tooting of my horn which i wrote as a theory in JHS104 1970s for Professor Horan, this magnetic property of the bones was not discovered till the early 2null years by studying homeless peoples bones from NYC's city Is;land RIP kind souls. A thank you  to scientist and homeless for that advancement. thank you)

Anywhat maybe the feature they need is how when the Planet is facing one direction its being affected by a push-pull of energy dominated by the solar systems output star (Sun) ONLY and when its facing the other direction the solar system is being dominated by the SUN and its sibling input Star (Black Hole at ~16 lightyrs away). Each lean influences how ANIMALS/LIFE BEHAVES in particular THE COMPLEX ANIMAL AKA hUMANS (UNSTICK KEYS...too lazy2retype)

In the latter scenario the xtra chaos (via black hole taking in light turning our deep resonance) creates the leanings i've typed of try to locate it on my active blogs.


Now maYBE JUST MAYBE THE ICE or something that builds up by the 4th to 5th 21,000 year cycle REACTS TO THOSE DEEP hZ. BATHING THIS SOLAR SYSTEM AT...

 (DARM KEYBOARD..PUNCHES SELF IN FACE KEYBOARD MORE EXPENSIVE THAN UGLY FACE)

...different waves lengths from the black holes Hz output  as the precession modulates from orbital to eliptical-like at the 1000,000 yr points as in playing peek-a-boo with the black holes Hz influence.  This could explain the ~21,000 yr and ~42,000 yr shifts as the reaction to the black hole also shifting to n fro  or i just could be 99.9% wrong.

 PS please remember i use sidereal years when i state Earth percesion is ~24,000 yrs and what i call a "Duodecium" or half a precession is 11,500 to 12,500 years

For those wondering hey maybe its why Planet is warming PLEASE THINK here its talking as to 100,000 yrs or half 50,000yrs not in your lifetime which usually means 20-40 yrs and present warming is many times faster in numbers that means 40 into 50,000...carry the none...divide...lift the tartar sauce dipped cracker to mouth...1,250 and i'm being kind not using less years or higher mean number nearer to 100,000 and also Earth as to this motion should be in a cooler period shhh.

back to weather...finally feels like fall here in nyc,


The notable absence of the seasonal Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian Low this winter to continue. Modest storm for the West Coast coming Thursday thru Friday with another due in late Sunday thru Monday. Longer term the models are indicating a return to an extended period of precip.
From previous blog:

Quoting 439. elioe:



Well, I'm not sure, but I guess this year's increase in extent is only the third largest, after 2007-08 and 2012-13 ?

But I made a new graph. Now the vertical axis is the change in average thickness, compared to September. Horizontal axis remains the accumulated FDD.



Should be clear, why this approach has no value. Every year, in the beginning of freezing season, the accumulation of FDD is accompanied in a decrease in the average thickness. That's because the extent starts growing faster than volume.


Actually your plot speaks volumes (yes, pun intended). They all start below zero because, as you correctly pointed out, the extent increases much faster which can cause the average thickness of the ice to decrease.

So any initial increase in volume in the early stages of each season is primarily driven by the increase in the area/extent of the ice (not taking into account any other factors]. Only after the surface water has frozen can the volume of the ice increase due to to the ice thickening. After all, for ice to thicken, you first have to have ice there :D.

You did not indicate how you determined the rate that you obtained. I did a similar plot of Volume vs. Area. For the Volume, I used the PIOMAS monthly average data. For the Area (not extent) I used data obtained from the NIDSC as area would be more appropriate for what you are determining. I only plotted September - December.

The rate (linear regression) of change each year is shown below. Anything below "1" demonstrates a greater contribution to volume from the increase in area, anything above 1 indicates a greater contribution in volume from increased thickening of the ice (if I am interpreting the results correctly, if I am not let me know).

Two of your results show that the ice continued to thin, this year (2016-2017 freeze season) and one other. Just wonder which that is and if it is one of the lower numbers (like the 2006-2007 season).

Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:



Quoting 79. AussieStorm:



What has been happening to the blogs. Why is everyone's join date January 1, 1970??

Based on your handle you must be in Australia. The Amazon Cloud that they moved the WU site to runs on Linux servers. In Linux (and Unix where it came from) the base date is January 1, 1970 00:00:00 UTC and is internally kept as a 32 bit signed integer that counts the number of seconds since the base date. Because UTC is based at the Greenwich Meridian if you are west of it but east of the International Date Line the date in your time zone will be before the current UTC but if you're east of it but west of the IDL you will see a date after the current UTC. So I suspect what's happening is the date that WU is feeding the new servers is an invalid format or maybe they're not even trying to send it yet so it defaults to a 0. Then the server spits back January 1, 1970 00:00:00 and you see the date for that in your time zone in the Member Since field.

As an aside do you remember the Y2K problem? Unix/Linux has a similar problem sometimes called the Y2038 problem. On January 19, 2038 at 03:14:07 UTC the internal time format will reach the maximum value for a signed 32 bit integer and roll over into negative numbers. Once it rolls over the time routines will interpret the date as December 13, 1901. There are a number of solutions proposed to fix this but they all will require rewriting a lot of software.

Quoting 87. Qazulight:



I follow battery technology closely. Standstill is the opposite of what is going on. There are pretty significant advances coming into production continually, and there significant new chemistries coming out of the labs monthly. These take about 5 years to get from lab to the market. Of course the vast majority never make it, but occasionally one does, and it tends to be a game changer.

Additionally, I have seen advances in the underlying materials science coming online. The announcements sometimes come daily, sometimes weekly. They come from every corner of the globe and in every facet of the science. The changes range from mathmatical theories to practical new diagnostic machines. Don't laugh at the mathematicians, several of the advances in chemistry were outlined by mathematicians decades before the chemist were able to work out the science. Don't under estimate the value of the diagnostic machines, they allow the scientist to prove, or disprove the theories and create solutions to the puzzles that open the door to practical products.

I have never been more excited about the future than I am today.

Even as I am almost giddy with the bright future of this planet, I lament the loss of the reefs, and I do mean loss, most is gone and we will be lucky to preserve even a small piece to show our children. And I lament the doom of south Florida and south Lousianna. Even with that, the future is extremely bright.

Cheers
Qazulight


If they can actually figure out an economically viable aluminum chemistry we really wouldn't need any further battery advancement for some time. So far no one has really come up with a good way to deal with the "aluminum oxide problem", and until that's solved the only efficient way to use aluminum technology in something like a car would consist of removing a spent battery and replacing it with a new one. That's not really feasible.

One of my favorite battery technologies is nickel-iron batteries. They're basically indestructible. You can overcharge them, undercharge them, and recharge them countless times (typical lifespan is 30-50 years). Unfortunately it has a crappy energy density and a pretty high self-discharge rate so not really practical for much modern use outside of industrial applications and possibly solar/wind power.
Quoting 64. civEngineer:


Nonsense.
There's a lot of burning going on in forests/taigas that have been effectively untouched by man for 4.64 billion years (yeah, yeah).
Oh, folks, dangerous "black ice" and crashes everywhere: in environment policies and on our real roads ...
Nevertheless, a good morning.

Icy roads in eastern half of Germany cause traffic chaos
DPA/The Local, news@thelocal.de, 31 January 2017, 09:50 CET 01:00

Strong weather warnings abound with major thaw in sight
The Local, news.austria@thelocal.com, 30 January 2017
Austria's weather service UBIMET has reported this past January as possibly the country's coldest of the past three decades. The start of this week will be no different than the rest of the month, but temperatures will increase at the start of February. ...

MEPs in bid to force UK to meet environmental regulations after Brexit
Leaked European parliament document says exit deal would be voted down if UK failed to commit to EU air pollution ceilings
The Guardian, Daniel Boffey in Brussels, Tuesday 31 January 2017 07.00 GMT
Britain would be forced to abide by key EU environmental regulations by a pan-European court as part of any Brexit deal, according to a leaked document detailing the negotiating red lines being drawn up by the European parliament.
Drafted by MEPs, the paper says the UK should not be allowed to damage the wider European environment after its withdrawal from the EU by unilaterally weakening its commitments to reducing pollution emissions and protecting wildlife ....


More than 100 natural world heritage sites degraded by human activity, says report
The Guardian, Tuesday 31 January 2017 02.02 GMT
More than 100 of the world's most precious natural assets are being severely damaged by encroaching human activities, according to a study examining direct human footprints and forest losses. ...
Forest loss worst in North America and Australia, with 63% of sites under increased pressure from infrastructure, agriculture and settlements ...
Where's Scott?
Renewables can't deliver Paris climate goals: study
PhysOrg, January 31, 2017 by Marlowe Hood
Expansion of renewable energy cannot by itself stave off catastrophic climate change, scientists warned Monday.
Even if solar and wind capacity continues to grow at breakneck speed, it will not be fast enough to cap global warming under two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), the target set down in the landmark 2015 Paris climate treaty, they reported in the journal Nature Climate Change. ...


A Climate Change Economist Sounds the Alarm
Bloomberg, Jan 31, 2017 2:00 AM EST, by Mark Buchanan
Some people who study climate change believe that addressing it later -- when economic growth has made humanity wealthier -- would be better than taking drastic measures immediately. Now, though, one of this group's most influential members appears to have changed his mind. ...

Camp Century: Put on Ice, But Only for So Long
NASA Earth Observatory, January 31, 2017
When the builders of Camp Century began storing waste in Greenland's ice sheet, they had every reason to rest easy. Snow and ice would continue to accumulate, sealing the Cold War military base in an icy tomb - or so they thought. But the builders failed to foresee that one day, those frigid layers could instead start melting. ...
105. elioe
Quoting 95. daddyjames:



I used JAXA ice extent figures for the 15th day of each month. Because daily JAXA extent figures were the first I encountered, and I was lazy. :D

But in my calculations, the following freezing seasons had a negative change in volume divided by extent between September and December: 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17. So the change was positive for 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2013-14.
Good Morning. Here is the Conus forecast for today and current look; more "big water" headed into the Pacific NW region (to include rain and snow) over the few days:



And a portion of the Aussie Enso forecast issued today:

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with all ENSO indicators currently within the ENSO-neutral range.

Climate model outlooks indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO-neutral through the southern summer and autumn. Most models surveyed expect the tropical Pacific Ocean to warm during this period, meaning La Niña is the least likely scenario for winter/spring 2017.  It should be noted that model outlooks that span the southern autumn period tend to have lower accuracy than outlooks issued at other times of the year. This means outlooks beyond May should be used with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate during the months from December to April.

From the Science Mag site yesterday; the beauty (versus the current sadness in the science ranks) of having a Presidential Office that understands the importance of science:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/los- alamos-releases-16-years-gps-solar-weather-data

It's not often that a scientific discipline gains a 23-satellite constellation overnight. But today, space weather scientists are reaping such a windfall, as the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico has released 16 years of radiation measurements recorded by GPS satellites.

Although billions of people globally use data from GPS satellites, they remain U.S. military assets. Scientists have long sought the data generated by sensors used to monitor the status of the satellites, which operate in the heavy radiation of medium-Earth orbit and can be vulnerable to solar storms. But few have been allowed to tap this resource. There is a general hesitancy to broadcast even fairly innocuous things out to the broad community, says Marc Kippen, a program manager at Los Alamos, which developed the radiation-measuring instruments.

That attitude changed in October 2016, when the outgoing Obama administration issued an executive order aimed at preparing the country for extreme space weather. Such bursts in charged particles, originating in a solar flare or coronal mass ejection, could disable the electrical power grid or divert flights away from the Arctic, where radiation exposure is heightened.

109. elioe
Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:

* Nigeria, Chad Seek U.S. $50 Billion to Recharge Shrinking Lake Chad Ambitious funding target!



" "And the challenge is how to address such situation, I pointed out that what Nigeria is looking at in that context is the possibility of recharging the lake from a river from Central Africa, the Rangin River," he said. "

By googling "Rangin River" it is found, that almost every result is a version of this same news story. Perhaps the original reporter misheard word "Ubangi"? Because that's where I've earlier heard they're planning to divert water.

And actually, with 50 billion USD, it might be possible to divert the entire Congo. But I think, they're not planning to restore Lake Chad into the extend it had 7 or 8 millennia ago, unlike I'm dreaming of. At least not yet.

The GPS signals (frequency) that civilians use routinely in our boats and cars to navigate are accurate to a radius of several feet versus the military signals (which we cannot access) which close that gap to a 3 foot square box or so that can put a guided Tomahawk missile through the window of your bathroom. Same technology noted in Dr. Master's post as to the new Noaa Satellites; amazing how the NASA/NOAA scientists were able to determine that GPS signals could be used to more accurately determine tropical storms winds (along with the global coverage) with no rain contaminated data as we often had with the Ascat/Quikscat passes.


Good morning...end of January and the Great Lakes are still pretty wide open. Should get some more ice in the next week or so with the temps trending colder, but as we're gaining 2 minutes of daylight every day now.


The odds of any significant ice pack forming are slim unless we get a really big shot of polar air in the next 4 weeks.
Record heat and drought seen in Amazon during 2015-16 El Niño
30 January 2017 / Claire Salisbury
The 2015-16 El Niño saw record-breaking negative impacts on the Amazon rainforest, with new extremes of heat and drought; that’s bad news for curbing climate change.

Link
Quoting 90. Skyepony:


Must have missed the Sunday Morning Show. They had a thing on new battery technology.. It is going way beyond lithium or even what we might think a battery should look like. These were new technologies already put to use.

There was hydro battery where they were pumping a lake up a mountain when electricity is cheap at night and then letting it run down the mountain in the day harnessing electricity from turbines.

There was ice batteries (Ice Bear), sits on building roofs.. that froze vats of water at night when power is plentiful ..endlessly recyclable and very efficient for AC. Let it melt in the day to directly cool air for the Air Conditioners. They showed a vineyard using these.

There is this huge fly wheel looking battery from Amber Kinetics that spins up at night on cheap electricity, it is levitated to reduce friction. As it spins down during the day the energy is released. Never looses charging capacity, can't catch on fire, lasts for decades..operating temperature range..-40 to 50C.


NOVA is doing a show February 1st.. The Search For The Super Battery. Expect to be delighted by more new batteries...




The first two have been around for quite some time, and the EROEI is dismissal, but when one has excess energy at the time, it makes sense.
However, these make up a small percentage of energy use.
When something gets to represent 10% of market share, we can have a further dissuasion.
(I'll take 5% even)
Another spring like day here in SE TX, crystal clear skies

Guess I'll mosey on down to the Superbowl Live festivities in downtown here during lunch break and check it all out.....after all that's what America is all about right! entertainment, fun fun fun, blow that money and be happy and jolly! Science? education? real world problems? climate change? what's that??

That's the world were in folks, get used to it
Environment Pollution in USA on January 31 2017 11:24 AM (UTC).

A major plutonium plant at the Hanford Nuclear Reservation in Washington state has been put on pause after radioactive contamination spread outside the facility. A radiation monitor alarm sounded Friday while crews were working to contain radioactive contamination on a waste pile. The contamination was found where workers planned to contain it during the demolition. Radiological surveys identified low levels of contamination on workers' protective clothing but no contamination on the clothing they wore underneath or on their skin. Nasal smears also found no evidence of inhaled contamination. Project contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation says the company is investigating how the contamination spread and will take steps to reduce the risk of another incident. Demolition is expected to resume next week.
Quoting 90. Skyepony:


Must have missed the Sunday Morning Show. They had a thing on new battery technology.. It is going way beyond lithium or even what we might think a battery should look like. These were new technologies already put to use.

There was hydro battery where they were pumping a lake up a mountain when electricity is cheap at night and then letting it run down the mountain in the day harnessing electricity from turbines.

There was ice batteries (Ice Bear), sits on building roofs.. that froze vats of water at night when power is plentiful ..endlessly recyclable and very efficient for AC. Let it melt in the day to directly cool air for the Air Conditioners. They showed a vineyard using these.

There is this huge fly wheel looking battery from Amber Kinetics that spins up at night on cheap electricity, it is levitated to reduce friction. As it spins down during the day the energy is released. Never looses charging capacity, can't catch on fire, lasts for decades..operating temperature range..-40 to 50C.


NOVA is doing a show February 1st.. The Search For The Super Battery. Expect to be delighted by more new batteries...




All three technologies have been around for a while. The spinning disk is used in computer centers for power regulation.
Another twist is using wind power to pump water up hill to "charge the lake" Water then runs downhill providing power.

On "Grand Tour" they put generators on gym equipment to charge an electric car for eight hours and then drove it twenty miles. (Season one, Episode #9) Grand Tour is the Amazon Prime reboot of BBC "Top Gear"

Brain power is one power we never run out of.
Science and International Cooperation (on the threat of global warming) is taking a huge blow by pulling the US out of the Paris Treaty as well as US integrity abroad. Treaties, like the US/Soviet Salt Treaties reducing the global nuclear arsenal is what helped soften cold war tensions and have often resulted in economic growth for the participants (less expenditure for nuclear weapons) and other breakthroughs in terms of international diplomacy and good will. Pulling out of the Paris Agreement signals to the world that the United States can no longer be trusted when it comes to international treaties/agreements. This is a very dangerous precedent not only for the United States but also as to what may come around the world if other nations decide to ditch their treaty agreements on other important issues (like nuclear non-proliferation agreements)............It's an outrage as to this specific issue and the US.
Speaking of batteries, I've had hell with Lithium AA batteries with my PWS. Long story short, I had to replace regular Energizer AA batteries in PWS after 10 months, so I decided to use Lithium that's supposed to last 2 years in outside conditions. They only last 19 days....one was completely dead, PWS went down, figured it was a fluke and just a bad set that I bought. So I bought another pair of Lithium batteries again and put into PWS, meanwhile I emailed energizer and received letter in mail from them and a $10 coupon for batteries.

Now again! after 16 days PWS goes down, one battery was completely dead. Called Energizer again and explained situation and gave them info on batteries.

Not buying Lithium batteries anymore. Apparently my PWS is drawing too much juice for those batteries. Regular batteries I had lasted 10 months, so something is going on in manufacturing of those Lithium batteries. Need a recall.
121. OKsky
nm... posting alt-facts on accident, lol
Quoting 119. weathermanwannabe:

Science and International Cooperation (on the threat of global warming) is taking a huge blow by pulling the US out of the Paris Treaty as well as US integrity abroad. Treaties, like the US/Soviet Salt Treaties reducing the global nuclear arsenal is what helped soften cold war tensions and have often resulted in economic growth for the participants (less expenditure for nuclear weapons) and other breakthroughs in terms of international diplomacy and good will. Pulling out of the Paris Agreement signals to the world that the United States can no longer be trusted when it comes to international treaties/agreements. This is a very dangerous precedent not only for the United States but also as to what may come around the world if other nations decide to ditch their treaty agreements on other important issues (like nuclear non-proliferation agreements)............It's an outrage as to this specific issue and the US.


According to Article II, Section 2, Clause 2 of the US Constitution a treaty must be approved by 2/3 of the Senate and it wasn't. Ergo the previous presidents unilateral commitment to the Paris Treaty was exceeding his constitutional authority and wasn't binding.
Quoting 87. Qazulight:



I follow battery technology closely. Standstill is the opposite of what is going on. There are pretty significant advances coming into production continually, and there significant new chemistries coming out of the labs monthly. These take about 5 years to get from lab to the market. Of course the vast majority never make it, but occasionally one does, and it tends to be a game changer.

Additionally, I have seen advances in the underlying materials science coming online. The announcements sometimes come daily, sometimes weekly. They come from every corner of the globe and in every facet of the science. The changes range from mathmatical theories to practical new diagnostic machines. Don't laugh at the mathematicians, several of the advances in chemistry were outlined by mathematicians decades before the chemist were able to work out the science. Don't under estimate the value of the diagnostic machines, they allow the scientist to prove, or disprove the theories and create solutions to the puzzles that open the door to practical products.

I have never been more excited about the future than I am today.

Even as I am almost giddy with the bright future of this planet, I lament the loss of the reefs, and I do mean loss, most is gone and we will be lucky to preserve even a small piece to show our children. And I lament the doom of south Florida and south Lousianna. Even with that, the future is extremely bright.

Cheers
Qazulight
Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.
It's an absolutely beautiful day, but the grass needs cutting. Sometimes it's raining, sometimes it's just to cold or to hot. Today, well it's just to damn pretty. Maybe I'll do it tomorrow.
Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.
I thought I read an article that said climate change was bleaching reefs.
That is one powerful low headed inbound towards the US West Coast:
Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.

We are indeed polluting our oceans, and our rivers and streams. Which is why we need environmental regulations and laws, something Trump and republicans want to do away with. We cannot survive without clean water, nor can the life in the waters that we depend on for food.
128. vis0
[posting this in case the snowflakes stop falling soon so its makes the comment look correct]
 
GROTHAR was correct the great snowfall is here.
 
Sissy does not like snow so she axes that Grothar give his seismic* signature and ban snow from coming to Nu Yauk.
 
 
**This style is to show that what's being signed is not only Earth shattering but heart breaking.
 
--------------------------------
--------------------------------


Signatures of Earthly life may be etched in moon rock || csmonitor [15.9KB]
 
Earth is sending oxygen to the moon || sciencemag [24.1KB]
 
wow maybe Earth can! fart?
 
-------------------------------
--------------------------------


Scientists unveil new form of matter: Time crystals ||  ||  []
 
Scientists unveil new form of matter: Time crystals  ||  eurekalert []
 
 
[aquak9 waking up reads think crystal...COFFEE!]
 
 
Back to the blogbyte topic or weather /. weather influencing observances
 
and BTW if people used the same form of building or using present day know-how to save energy as NASA has in going from bulky energy wasting (1st gen) SATS to energy saving SATs we'd have less aGW/ So for those that bring up NASA is wasting money THINK SATS are very cheap if you adjust for economic costliness i mean growth.  And they bring you your fav shows to cell calls, warnings................................
interesting spin of showers just north of hispanola. beautiful weather here in e cen florida today
130. vis0

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Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.
[/don't - have - th(ə) \ time to look up and + the sy-no-nym brəak down thingy/]   .::the presence in or introduction into the environment of a substance or thing that has harmful or poisonous effects.

aGW or warming of a climate (much much) faster than is the norm is harming the planet and its contents.
Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.

It's not quite that simple.

And I'd ask you this question. Are the equatorial waters the same temperature during events 50 years ago as they would be to similar magnitude El Nino events today? The answer might help improve your understanding.
Quoting 125. Kenfa03:

I thought I read an article that said climate change was bleaching reefs.

The effect of temperature on thermal bleaching was mostly ignored in the comment, oddly. Nothing to see here, it's just generic "pollution" (which?) and El Nino doing it, just like "ever since the reefs were formed."

Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.


On Reefs...

An interesting article on BBC last week, concerning a "newly discovered" reef system, for about 1,000 kilometres from the mouth of the Amazon, southward along the Brazilian coast.
Quoting 110. weathermanwannabe:

The GPS signals (frequency) that civilians use routinely in our boats and cars to navigate are accurate to a radius of several feet versus the military signals (which we cannot access) which close that gap to a 3 foot square box or so that can put a guided Tomahawk missile through the window of your bathroom. Same technology noted in Dr. Master's post as to the new Noaa Satellites; amazing how the NASA/NOAA scientists were able to determine that GPS signals could be used to more accurately determine tropical storms winds (along with the global coverage) with no rain contaminated data as we often had with the Ascat/Quikscat passes.


Your statement about the accuracy of civilian GPS signals is generally correct, particularly for things like in-car navigation. However, there are multiple civilian companies that make a living by providing highly accurate (decimeter level or better) positioning using civilian GPS signals, by applying differential corrections. By carrying out precise surveying of a stationary GPS receiver (reference station), the location of that receiver is known and can be compared with the position calculated based on the raw GPS signals. The difference is the differential correction that can be transmitted to other GPS receivers and applied to the positioning solution in the field. This was done even before the military stopped messing with the GPS signals. Nowadays adding GLONASS, BeiDou and Galileo capabilities to the receivers tightens it up even more.
But wait, there's more:

"The Problem With Abandoning the Paris Agreement"
Withdrawing from the treaty “would be a huge mistake, even forgetting about climate change,” said Todd Stern, the former U.S. special envoy on climate change. He added that it would have “radiating bad impacts with respect to U.S. standing” on all other international issues.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/ 11/the-problem-with-abandoning-the-paris-agreement /508085/

I've seen countless AGW deniers using the "China and India haven't been doing their part, so why should we" excuse to do nothing. It's like peek-a-boo to a toddler, it just never gets old. I think backing out of the Paris agreement would not only be an amazingly stupid move, it would ensure the United States' place in the dustbin of history.
Blog hole. Are we down again?
From the Guardian:

Judge in environmental activist's trial says climate change is matter of debate

Controversial statements angered environmentalists who insist courts have an obligation to recognize the science about manmade climate change

A Washington state judge has sparked outrage for remarks questioning the existence of climate change and the role of humans in global warming.

During the high-profile trial of Ken Ward, a climate activist facing 30 years in prison for shutting down an oil pipeline, Judge Michael E Rickert said: “I don’t know what everybody’s beliefs are on [climate change], but I know that there’s tremendous controversy over the fact whether it even exists. And even if people believe that it does or it doesn’t, the extent of what we’re doing to ourselves and our climate and our planet, there’s great controversy over that.”

The Skagit County judge made the comments on 24 January while addressing Ward’s request to present a “necessity defense” in court, meaning he would argue that the grave threat of climate change justified civil disobedience.

Rickert’s controversial statements, along with his decision to block Ward from arguing that his pipeline protest was necessary to prevent harm to the planet, angered environmentalists who insist that American courts have an obligation to recognize the science and consensus among researchers about man-made climate change.

“I thought it was shocking and deeply worrisome for my case,” said Ward, 60, of Corbett, Oregon, who temporarily shut off the safety valve of the TransMountain pipeline in Skagit County. “We are in the late stages of global collapse, and to have someone who is presumably as knowledgeable and aware as a judge should be blithely dismissing the biggest problem facing the world is chilling.”

Read more here

----------

That is one powerful looking low headed inbound towards the West Coast:

Quoting 126. weathermanwannabe:




Then essentially it was reckless and irresponsible to make commitments without the binding power of congress behind it since the end result which was easily predictable at the time it was made is that we would renege on those obligations when power transitioned to a different political persuasion. I am surprised that in your education on the matter you weren't taught that the US Constitution was tailored to champion individual liberty and not the greatest good.
test
Climate change drove population decline in New World before Europeans arrived

What caused the rapid disappearance of a vibrant Native American agrarian culture that lived in urban settlements from the Ohio River Valley to the Mississippi River Valley in the two centuries preceding the European settlement of North America? In a new study, researchers from Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis reconstructed and analyzed 2,100 years of temperature and precipitation data—and point the finger at climate change.

Read more at: Link
.
NASA:
@NASA

Today, #NASARemembers all those who gave their lives to further the cause of exploration and discovery: https://www.nasa.gov/specials/dor2017/




NASA Solar System:
@NASASolarSystem

In memory of 14 fallen astronauts and cosmonauts, the Apollo 15 crew left this tribute on the moon http://solarsystem.nasa.gov/galleries/memorial-to -fallen-astronauts-on-the-moon

Very low skill but interesting.
Quoting 105. elioe:



I used JAXA ice extent figures for the 15th day of each month. Because daily JAXA extent figures were the first I encountered, and I was lazy. :D

But in my calculations, the following freezing seasons had a negative change in volume divided by extent between September and December: 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17. So the change was positive for 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2013-14.


OK, that explains some of it. The monthly averages would be more appropriate. There is too much uncertainty in daily values for it to be useful other than making intraseasonal conclusions. Also, extent doesn't take into account any open areas in a grid cell if the ice covers more than 15% of that cell, and is skewing the results. For example, here are the monthly averages for Extent, Area (both from NSIDC), and Volume (PIOMAS) of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere.

yr. . . . . . . . .mo. . . . . . . extent (km^2). . . . . area (km^2). . . . . . . . Volume (km^3)
2016. . . . . . 9. . . . . . . . . . .4.72. . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.81 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.53
2016. . . . . .10. . . . . . . . . . 6.45. . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.27. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5.511
2016. . . . . .11. . . . . . . . . . .9.08. . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.92 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7.834
2016. . . . . .12. . . . . . . . . . 12.09. . . . . . . . . . . . 9.54 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.206


Since your interest is the proposed effects on open water located in/around the ice, area would be more appropriate.

Quoting 105. elioe:



I used JAXA ice extent figures for the 15th day of each month. Because daily JAXA extent figures were the first I encountered, and I was lazy. :D

But in my calculations, the following freezing seasons had a negative change in volume divided by extent between September and December: 2012-13, 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17. So the change was positive for 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2013-14.


I posted a reply, but the question is . . . . will we ever see it or is it lost in the internet wilderness?
Looks like we are back in business... This showed up about 24 hours later...lol
Quoting 101. barbamz:

Oh, folks, dangerous "black ice" and crashes everywhere: in environment policies and on our real roads ...
a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/ja n/31/european-parliament-force-uk-meet-environment al-regulations-after-brexit" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">MEPs in bid to force UK to meet environmental regulations after Brexit
Leaked European parliament document says exit deal would be voted down if UK failed to commit to EU air pollution ceilings
The Guardian, Daniel Boffey in Brussels, Tuesday 31 January 2017 07.00 GMT
Britain would be forced to abide by key EU environmental regulations by a pan-European court as part of any Brexit deal, according to a leaked document detailing the negotiating red lines being drawn up by the European parliament.
Drafted by MEPs, the paper says the UK should not be allowed to damage the wider European environment after its withdrawal from the EU by unilaterally weakening its commitments to reducing pollution emissions and protecting wildlife ....





I hope so! Stop the conservatives who'd be happy to do to the UK, what DT is trying to do to the US, and take pollution back half a decade, or make it like some places in China currently even :/
Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.

Bleaching increases in El Niño years because of her Cher ocean temperatures. Climate change is making more reefs bleach more often and in many cases kills them due to the overall increase in ocean temperatures caused by Man made global warming.
... or maybe not
Quoting 80. RobertWC:



Please explain the collapse of the pinon/juniper forest on the Southwest flank of the Valles Caldera.
Please explain the large fires I been tracking in Siberia for years.

I assure you the the reasons you cite in your comment are not at work in these two cases.


Well, the Piñon loss in the Valles Caldera is heat, drought, and beetles. We've lost piñon all over the place here.
Still some uncertainties in the forecast (see articles below), so take these runs with a grain of salt.
Winds up to 70mph forecast this week as Storm Doris approaches
Barrage of storms to bring rain, strong winds from London to Madrid this week




Run: Tuesday 31st January 2017 12am GMT. Valid: Thursday 2nd February 2017 12am GMT
Swell charts (ft). Source: Magicseaweed.com.
More info see articles above.
Is the blog broken? It's been almost 7 hours since I lasted posted and no one has posted since.
Mother of Blog holes.
Quoting 127. washingaway:


We are indeed polluting our oceans, and our rivers and streams. Which is why we need environmental regulations and laws, something Trump and republicans want to do away with. We cannot survive without clean water, nor can the life in the waters that we depend on for food.
Riiighhttt... Republicans on ly want dirty air and water. Get a grip.
Quoting 120. RitaEvac:

Speaking of batteries, I've had hell with Lithium AA batteries with my PWS. Long story short, I had to replace regular Energizer AA batteries in PWS after 10 months, so I decided to use Lithium that's supposed to last 2 years in outside conditions. They only last 19 days....one was completely dead, PWS went down, figured it was a fluke and just a bad set that I bought. So I bought another pair of Lithium batteries again and put into PWS, meanwhile I emailed energizer and received letter in mail from them and a $10 coupon for batteries.

Now again! after 16 days PWS goes down, one battery was completely dead. Called Energizer again and explained situation and gave them info on batteries.

Not buying Lithium batteries anymore. Apparently my PWS is drawing too much juice for those batteries. Regular batteries I had lasted 10 months, so something is going on in manufacturing of those Lithium batteries. Need a recall.

I've had the same problems with batteries. Quit using rechargeable batteries. Why did this blog die at 4:22 GMT?
3-Billion-Year-Old 'Lost Continent' Lurking Under African Island

Link
Quoting 8. CaneGirl:

Hi Everyone - Longtime lurker. I have a friend who I am trying to convince that global warming is real. Does anyone have suggestions on some great articles that explain what is global warming and why it is occurring? My friend does not have a strong science background. Many thanks in advance.


Don't bother. People don't ever change their minds. ;)

Oh wait, yeah they do. If they're actually open-minded about stuff.
Should be a konk-ass night for the Northern lights in the northern states, or anywhere above 45 degrees latitude.

Have a look at Spaceweather.com

Scroll down and look at the aural oval on the left!
162. MahFL
Test. last post was hours ago ?
163. vis0
gnitest  gnitset  3.14  come in Grothar  aquak9 connect that old weather station 8Oclock coffee can so at LEAST we can enter the town of maKE BELIEVE

 hi Trolly (Taz's name in make Believe...it  does iPOD chimes instead of a bell)
By my count, January 2017 should finish with approximately 128 tornadoes. You can view information on each one here. This is the second highest January total on record, behind only 1999 which featured over 200 tornadoes.

The January 21-23 outbreak (77) was the second largest outbreak on record for the month, behind the January 21-23, 1999 outbreak (129). It was the third largest winter outbreak on record, behind the 1999 outbreak and the 2008 Super Tuesday outbreak (86). On a smaller scale, the outbreak produced 41 tornadoes in Georgia, smashing the previous record for any month in the state set during Hurricane Ivan in August 2004 (25). Obviously that means it shattered the record for January (now 48), surpassing the previous record set in 1972 (15).
Quoting 127. washingaway:


We are indeed polluting our oceans, and our rivers and streams. Which is why we need environmental regulations and laws, something Trump and republicans want to do away with. We cannot survive without clean water, nor can the life in the waters that we depend on for food.

I don't know about you but.. remember when the EPA dumped extraordinary amounts (around 3 million gallons) of toxic sludge into the Animas river in Colorado?
/?
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change was an international accord not a treaty, and thus did not have to be approved by US Senate. As an accord, it does not have binding legal enforcement that would be requited of signatories of a treaty.
blog broken....
The pause that refreshes?
Quoting 89. BaltimoreBrian:

Oymyakon: The villagers of the coldest inhabited place on Earth adjust to unique challenges presented by day-to-day living


Doesn't get nearly as cold in Anchorage, thankfully.... Enjoyed your other articles as well.

Warm trend is creating havoc. Low 30s and rain ontop of snow = not good for driving.
test 2/1
The bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef was driven by record temperatures, not (water) pollution.
https://theconversation.com/great-barrier-re ef-bleaching-would-be-almost-impossible-without-cl imate-change-58408
Test
HELLLOOOO
test
Those reefs are dead.
Forever.
Rest will follow soon.
Then it takes evolution and on average 12-14 million years.
Most of those years will be peaceful again.
Hellooooooooooooooooooooooooo, is this website still alive, now back to the weather, nice cool and partly sunny morning in South Miami Florida this morning. Hope it stays this way, temp wise the rest of the winter, could use some rain though.
test
Expect El-Nino over the next 2 months to materialize infact by April Nino 3.4 by pretty much all the models suggest we will be near 0.8C then rising into the moderate category by Peak of Hurricane Season maybe strong if the latest runs of the CFS pan out. Pretty much El-Nino every year since 2014. We had a brief stint with close to La-Nina for 6 months or so the end of 2016 but that has since faded fast. This is very very rare territory. As I said last year you can thank the PDO with its high positive values !




CFS latest run at 18Z

Quoting 107. weathermanwannabe:

And a portion of the Aussie Enso forecast issued today:

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral, with all ENSO indicators currently within the ENSO-neutral range.

Climate model outlooks indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO-neutral through the southern summer and autumn. Most models surveyed expect the tropical Pacific Ocean to warm during this period, meaning La Niña is the least likely scenario for winter/spring 2017.  It should be noted that model outlooks that span the southern autumn period tend to have lower accuracy than outlooks issued at other times of the year. This means outlooks beyond May should be used with some caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate during the months from December to April.



It appears by all the models we will be at El-Nino values come March. This has never happened before with El-Nino for each of the last 4 years since 2014.
test
Did I miss something?
Working yet?
hmmm....why are there no comments since yesterday.....
What happened to the blog?
e.cen florida after the huge fish kill as well as current brown and green algae outbreaks there really is not much more harm that can come to our mosquito lagoon. its been done.
bump?
Help!

Quoting 126. weathermanwannabe:



Technically correct but my statement below stands; essentially the US committed to the treaty and to begin funding (which Obama did mange to get the first payment out before he left office) in terms of contributions from the major industrial nations towards Co2 reduction in accordance with the goals of the treaty (Co2 reduction) which transcends politics.

However, the greatest irony (per your unconstitutional issue) is that many Republicans criticized President Obama for many of his executive orders, in the face of a congress that just said no, which were primarily aimed at trying to achieve the greatest good for the most prople, and now DT is doing the same thing (executive orders) without explicit Congressional approval simply to appease his base supporters (populist/isolationist agenda with little regard to the science of climate change).................I am a Judicial Officer with an undergraduate degree in International Politics and my Con Law Professor in Law School was one of the research assistants for Lawrence Tribe at Harvard. If you want to discuss the fine points of what is Constitutional and what it not, or of what politics should try to achieve for the masses I would be happy to entertain your arguments by Wundermail so as not to clog the Blog with a political/law discussion not directly related to weather (unlike the Paris Treaty issue).
190. NNYer
Is the blog broken?
Test
Am I the first to have made back in? The technical issues with this website will result in the end of what is my preferred website for weather and climate discussions. Please resolve the technical issues.
Hello! Is anybody out there?

System due west of SF moving in today with ppt and winds tonight, up to 3 more feet of snow for the Sierra. Another system behind it by Sunday with another possibly by Tuesday.
wonder how many people are going through withdrawals ...i know I kinda am
.
I haven't seen a new post since 127. WU mail if there is a way in.
198. OKsky
testing testing 1, 2, 3
Test.

No comments since yesterday. Testing to see if I can post something or if everybody just left.
lol
Quoting 123. NativeSun:

Most of the reefs are not gone, they are changing due to the pollution of the reefs from man made chemicals, and other pollutants. The bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef, and other Reefs around the world, are a result a strong Nino, and calm days on the oceans in the hottest parts of the year. This has been happening to the reefs ever since the reefs were formed, and mans pollution of the oceans is also having a harmful effects on these same reefs. The reefs will recover from the bleaching, we just need to stop the pollution, that is causing other problems on the reefs.


Do we have to revisit this every month?

First of all, you can't invoke El Niño to explain bleaching outside of the zone affected by El Niño, which is limited to an area of the Pacific. You must know this; another reader may not.

Second, it is just plain: Ocean acidification and rising SSTs are a growing threat to reefs. Of course, localized pollutants are having negative effects as well. But what is the point of discounting the first two threats with "it has been hot before and we still have reefs"? It's going to be hotter, and the ocean more acidic, since the first people were spearing fish in the ocean. Will you, or will you not, admit the increasing risk that now exists for millions of people whose lives are supported by healthy reefs?

Test?????
Test 02/01
Ken Caldeira:
‏@KenCaldeira

Congressional Republicans move to delete funding for US support of IPCC, UNFCCC, etc. H.R.673 https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/hous e-bill/673/text

Sorry for the outage. The member database went completely down - which means blogs, blog comments, WUmail and a slew of other things were not functioning at all for over a day. The issue was caused by one of our old/main data centers getting shut down for good yesterday. There may continue to be bumps in the road during the transition.

Jeff Masters
Quoting 153. 999Ai2016:

Still some uncertainties in the forecast (see articles below), so take these runs with a grain of salt.
Winds up to 70mph forecast this week as Storm Doris approaches

Doris?? Ah, get to love our European naming chaos! For Germans it's storm Juergen, and others may follow:


Surface map for tomorrow.

Violent storms set to lash Brittany and Normandy
The Local (France), 1 February 2017
National weather agency Meteo France has issued a warning bulletin as violent storms are set to batter Brittany and Normandy in north western France towards the end of the week. ...

Nice to have WU back!! Nevertheless, I have to hit the cushion as a little job travel is ahead of me the next days. Stay sound and well, everybody!
Simon Gascoin:
‏@sgascoin

Big calving event going on @AntarcticPIG ! Sentinel2 image and NYC map at the same scale @AntarcticReport @kryosat @ESA_EO @StefLhermitte

Are we back and for how long.... still incorrect date
Quoting 188. MonsterTrough:

bump?


reading this comment at 14:04PST and it is the last shown....
Molasses
Quoting 186. HotToddy62:

What happened to the blog?


˙ƃolq ǝɥʇ ɥʇᴉʍ ƃuoɹʍ ƃuᴉɥʇǝɯos sᴉ ǝɹǝɥʇ ʇɐɥʇ ʞuᴉɥʇ I
I posted #192 about 4 hours ago. I make a new comment and the old comment shows up, but not the new comment.

˙sǝnssᴉ ƃuᴉʌɐɥ sᴉ ƃolq ǝɥʇ ʇɐɥʇ ʞuᴉɥʇ I
214. MahFL
Looks like we are live again currently 5:13 pm EST as I type.
Quoting 198. OKsky:

testing testing 1, 2, 3


You passed the test. I still have two comments hanging out in cyberspace someplace. Let me know if you find them.
Quoting 206. JeffMasters:

Sorry for the outage. The member database went completely down - which means blogs, blog comments, WUmail and a slew of other things were not functioning at all for over a day. The issue was caused by one of our old/main data centers getting shut down for good yesterday. There may continue to be bumps in the road during the transition.

Jeff Masters


Bumps in the road? I think that I just hit a mountain.
Blogger Patrap asking if the blogs are alive as He exit's the spacecraft in Lake Pontchartrain...post splashdown.






code red for system number 1 statement north of Réunion or northeast of Madagascar.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET February 1 2017
=========================

System #1

South of Agalega Island :
-----------------------------------------
Satellite imagery shows a weak circulation, rather wide with a ill-defined center near 14.0S 55.8E at 1000Z, totally exposed in the southeast of deep convection. According with the data from Tromelin station and the buoy n°53011603, minimal pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa. The last partial ASCAT swath and Tromelin observations show maximal winds about 15 knots reaching locally 20 knots in the equatoward feeding. Deep convection is essentially located within the monsoon flow, undergoing a strong south-easterly vertical wind shear.

At short term, environmental conditions are unfavorable with a moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear and especially not enough low level convergence. From Friday, environmental conditions should improve with a increasing polerward low level inflow and a good equatoward diffluence. Moreover, a dynamic mid-latitude upper level trough is forecast to shift near the Mascareignes archipelago and should provide a good upper level divergence and a good upper level outflow up to Saturday With these increasing conditions, the two models IFS and GFS deepen this low, but differ on the track and the intensity:

- ECMWF tracks rapidly the system south southeastwards , with a progressively intensification, then a turn South-Westwards, so the system is expected to pass in the southeast of Mauritius then La Reunion on Monday as a tropical storm.

- GFS suggests a slower track southwards until Sunday, but deepen it more rapidly, reaching the storm force on Saturday. after a stationary track and evolution on Sunday, the system begin to track south southwestwards, deepening a little more. It should be noted that the last ECMWF runs which have varied a lot these last days seem more consistent. Moreover the three last runs of the ensemble forecast of IFS are more stables, and GFS and UKMO also deepen the system. while GFS is more consistent with a deepening become more important as the run goes.

For this reason, the likelihood of cyclogenesis become moderate to strong on Saturday.

System #2

Residual low South of Diego Garcia (03R):
------------------------------------------------- -
Today, the low is fully exposed with the deep convection far west of the circulation. The center is located near 12.S 69.3E at 0800Z. Minimal pressure and maximal winds are estimated respectively at 1009 hPa and 15-20 knots thanks to the 05:26 UTC ASCAT data. The sheared circulation is moving southwestward and should fill up rapidly.

For the next 5 days, the potential for the development of a moderate tropical storm is low until Friday, and become moderate to strong from Saturday, north of the Mascareignes islands
NHC Tropical Cyclone Report on Otto has it upgraded to a minimal category 3. Thus, the Atlantic 2016 hurricane season now stands at 15-7-4

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL162016_Otto.pd f

220. vis0

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Quoting 218. HadesGodWyvern:

code red for system number 1 statement north of Réunion or northeast of Madagascar.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET February 1 2017
=========================

System #1

South of Agalega Island :
-----------------------------------------
Satellite imagery shows a weak circulation, rather wide with a ill-defined center near 14.0S 55.8E at 1000Z, totally exposed in the southeast of deep convection. According with the data from Tromelin station and the buoy n°53011603, minimal pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa. The last partial ASCAT swath and Tromelin observations show maximal winds about 15 knots reaching locally 20 knots in the equatoward feeding. Deep convection is essentially located within the monsoon flow, undergoing a strong south-easterly vertical wind shear.

At short term, environmental conditions are unfavorable with a moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear and especially not enough low level convergence. From Friday, environmental conditions should improve with a increasing polerward low level inflow and a good equatoward diffluence. Moreover, a dynamic mid-latitude upper level trough is forecast to shift near the Mascareignes archipelago and should provide a good upper level divergence and a good upper level outflow up to Saturday With these increasing conditions, the two models IFS and GFS deepen this low, but differ on the track and the intensity:

- ECMWF tracks rapidly the system south southeastwards , with a progressively intensification, then a turn South-Westwards, so the system is expected to pass in the southeast of Mauritius then La Reunion on Monday as a tropical storm.

- GFS suggests a slower track southwards until Sunday, but deepen it more rapidly, reaching the storm force on Saturday. after a stationary track and evolution on Sunday, the system begin to track south southwestwards, deepening a little more. It should be noted that the last ECMWF runs which have varied a lot these last days seem more consistent. Moreover the three last runs of the ensemble forecast of IFS are more stables, and GFS and UKMO also deepen the system. while GFS is more consistent with a deepening become more important as the run goes.

For this reason, the likelihood of cyclogenesis become moderate to strong on Saturday.

System #2

Residual low South of Diego Garcia (03R):
------------------------------------------------- -
Today, the low is fully exposed with the deep convection far west of the circulation. The center is located near 12.S 69.3E at 0800Z. Minimal pressure and maximal winds are estimated respectively at 1009 hPa and 15-20 knots thanks to the 05:26 UTC ASCAT data. The sheared circulation is moving southwestward and should fill up rapidly.

For the next 5 days, the potential for the development of a moderate tropical storm is low until Friday, and become moderate to strong from Saturday, north of the Mascareignes islands
Whats the percentage of success as to ECMWF v. GFS in that/this part of the worlds ocean. (round? better of worse that the ATL Basin.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 206. JeffMasters:

Sorry for the outage. The member database went completely down - which means blogs, blog comments, WUmail and a slew of other things were not functioning at all for over a day. The issue was caused by one of our old/main data centers getting shut down for good yesterday. There may continue to be bumps in the road during the transition.

Jeff Masters


What a relief.
I thought it was because of me.