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More than 20 Deaths Feared in Italian Hotel Buried by Avalanche

By: Bob Henson 4:14 PM GMT on January 20, 2017

An unusually frigid and snowy winter across southern Europe delivered its most dramatic blow yet on Wednesday evening, when a four-star resort in the Abruzzo province of central Italy, Hotel Rigopiano, was buried in an avalanche. About 30 people were believed to be in the hotel when the avalanche struck, with two others having survived because they were outside the building. Inside, rescuers carefully combed through the ruined structure. Imagery from inside the hotel showed massive amounts of snow piled in hallways and pushed against windows (see Figure 2). On Friday morning, six of the missing people were found alive in an air pocket in the building, and several others may have survived, according to rescuers.

Central Italy has been rocked by multiple earthquakes over the last few months, the deadliest being a temblor on August 24 centered about 30 miles (45 kilometers) north of L’Aquila that killed nearly 300 people. Four quakes of magnitudes 5.3 to 5.6 struck over a four-hour period on Wednesday about 15 mi (25 km) northwest of L’Aquila. It appears these quakes likely triggered the avalanche at the hotel, which is located near the town of Farindola on the east side of the rugged central Apennines mountain range.

Very heavy amounts of snow fell on the east slopes of the central Apennines in the days leading up to Wednesday’s quake. At Valle Castellana, about 30 mi (45 km) northwest of Farindola, roughly three meters (118 inches) of snow fell in a 48-hour period early this week at a surprisingly low elevation of around 2000 feet (700 meters), according to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera.


Figure 1. Italian firefighters search for survivors after an avalanche buried a hotel near Farindola in central Italy, on Thursday, Jan. 19, 2017. Rescue workers on skis reported no signs of life as they searched for around 30 people believed trapped inside. Image credit: Italian Firefighters/ANSA via Italian Firefighters.


Figure 2. This image, made available by the Italian Guardia di Finanza (finance police) shows the avalanche inside the Rigopiano Hotel, near Farindola, Italy, Thursday, Jan. 19, 2017. Rescue workers reported no signs of life Thursday at a four-star hotel buried by an avalanche in the mountains of earthquake-stricken central Italy. Image credit: Guardia di Finanza/ANSA via Finance Police.

Italy’s worst avalanche in a century
The Farindola avalanche may end up being among the worst on record in the Apennines, and Europe’s deadliest since an avalanche took 30 lives in the Austrian Alps village of Galtür on February 23, 1999. By far the worst avalanche disaster in modern European history was the White Friday sequence of avalanches that struck the Italian Alps in December 1916 during World War I. Many thousands of soldiers were stationed across the region, and very heavy early-season snows made the soldiers vulnerable to avalanches, some of which may have been triggered (intentionally or not) by shells fired into the snow. On a single day, December 13 (White Friday), some 270 soldiers were lost as an Austrian set of barracks was buried. More avalanches followed in the subsequent week, killing as many as 10,000 soldiers.

This winter’s snowy grip on southern Europe
Record cold and widespread snow have plagued large parts of Europe over the last several weeks. At least 60 cold-related deaths were reported in Poland and other European nations during the first 10 days of January, according to weather.com. On January 7, Moscow dipped to –30°C (–22°F), making it the city’s coldest Orthodox Christmas in official records going back 120 years. Before then, the city endured an unofficial –35°C (–31°F) on Orthodox Christmas 1881. Also on January 7, the Naples (Italy) International Airport dipped to –5.6°C (21.9°F), tying its all-time low set in January 1981. (Records at this site go back to 1949.) All-time lows were also set in Albania at Vlore, with –9.4°C (15.1°F) and Durres, with –9.0°C (15.8°F).


Figure 3. A migrant sits on a chair outside a tent at the snow-covered refugee camp of Vagiohori village, about 45 kilometers (28 miles) east of the Greek city of Thessaloniki, on Thursday, Jan. 12, 2017. The European Commission said conditions for refugees on islands and other camps where they are housed in tents despite severe cold weather, is "untenable.” Image credit: AP Photo/Giannis Papanikos.

The cold blast has been especially vivid in southeastern Europe, thanks in part to snowfall across places that rarely see it. The town of Taormina, on Sicily’s east coast, received more than 10 cm (4 in) of snow on January 7, its heaviest accumulation since 1956, according to Herrera. Last week, he added, several parts of the Peloponnese region of Greece reported their first snow cover in living memory, including the port of Lefkada. Historic sea-level snow also fell on the Greek coastal town of Kiato and on the islands of Othonio, Kefalonia, Meganisi, and Zante, according to Herrera. One of the first snowfalls in decades whitened the beaches of southeastern Spain on Wednesday night in the province of Alicante, though no snow was reported in the cities of Valencia and Alicante. The coastal town of Torrevieja last saw accumulating snow in December 1926.

Ice from the sky, Moroccan style
The cold air aloft made it all the way to northern Africa, where it fed the development of thunderstorms despite chilly surface air. The beach at Raf Raf, Tunisia, was partially covered by snow, the first sea-level accumulation in the country since 1981. A thunderstorm hit Tunis, Tunisia, on Tuesday while the surface temperature was just 3°C (37°F). Another thunderstorm left Morocco’s capital city of Rabat covered in a rare coating of graupel on Thursday afternoon, as shown in this clip from Morocco World News and in the embedded video at bottom. Graupel is produced when supercooled water droplets are captured by falling snowflakes, leading to dense showers of small, soft frozen pellets distinct from either hailstones or snowflakes. Temperatures at the Rabat airport dropped to 48°F (9°C) during the graupel shower.

Another stormy weekend for both U.S. coasts
The highly progressive parade of upper-level storms that’s been racing across the United States in recent days will continue this weekend. Several quick-hitting rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow are expected in California, including what could be the biggest deluge and highest surf to hit southern California in years. As much as 6” of rain could fall in coastal locations, including Los Angeles, and up to 9” in foothill and mountain areas, according to the NWS/Los Angeles office. Waves of up to 30 feet could crash into the central California coast from Friday into Saturday, with 15-foot waves possible along LA-area beaches. Waterspouts and hail are possible on Friday as short lines of thunderstorms, and perhaps low-topped supercell storms, swing across the southern California coast.

Farther downstream, a very intense surface low will spin up over the Southern Plains and push into the Southeast by early next week. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center is highlighting an enhanced risk of severe weather on Saturday over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley (with some potential for tornadoes) and on Sunday across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. The surface low’s central pressure is expected to dip below 990 millibars, possibly challenging some local records for the all-time lowest pressures observed in January, as noted by Eric Webb (@webberweather). You can compare the observations as they come in with this handy NWS guide to month-by-month surface pressure records.

Thanks go to Maximiliano Herrera for several of the European and African statistics cited here. We’ll be back with a new post on Monday. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson


Video 1. A rare graupel thundershower pelts the capital city of Morocco, Rabat, on Thursday, January 19, 2017. Video credit: HESPRESS.


Winter Weather Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wasn't too bad in Florida, we've had daytime thunderstorm events far worse than this.
Not Weather related, but interesting none-the-less:

United Airlines grounds domestic flights because of IT issue
(CNN) United Airlines grounded all domestic mainline flights Sunday night because of a computer problem, United spokeswoman Maddie King told CNN.

"We have issued a ground stop for all domestic mainline flights due to an IT issue," King said. "We are working as quickly as possible to resolve this issue and get our customers to their final destinations. We apologize for the inconvenience to our customers."

A ground stop is in place for domestic flights due to an IT issue. We're working on a resolution. We apologize for the inconvenience.

— United (@united) January 23, 2017
Quoting 999. HurricaneHunterJoe:

January Storm # 6- It's coming down cats and dogs! No big wind yet. Rainfall Totals thus far is 1.44" since it started about 1pm PST. Will keep you all updated. Last 2 hours have been over .50 for each hour. Rain started running off right away! There will probably be flooding issues from here on out!


Sorry to hear that HHJ.
Quoting 998. Dakster:

Wish I could plus these posts, so instead I will have to post a big thank you to those that are keeping us up to the minute on weather conditions.


Major Ditto, from Florida.

DJ
Barefoot
Pat
et.al.

Buy Local, Eat Fresh, Drink Craft Beer.
JR
Quoting 1001. CybrTeddy:

Wasn't too bad in Florida, we've had daytime thunderstorm events far worse than this.


True thus far it hasn't been too bad but I wouldn't paint your locale as representation of the entire state. Here is a radar of my area from earlier. I could count several storms that had potential - many were tornado warned - myself included. We were lucky.



The ULL looks to be moving slightly south of due east. Not sure of the forecast track, but what I do know is beware the tail of dragon.

It looks like I am out of the woods now, as far as storms go, I had worst, this is like a really windy average Thunderstorm
1008. Dakster
Quoting 999. HurricaneHunterJoe:

January Storm # 6- It's coming down cats and dogs! No big wind yet. Rainfall Totals thus far is 1.44" since it started about 1pm PST. Will keep you all updated. Last 2 hours have been over .50 for each hour. Rain started running off right away! There will probably be flooding issues from here on out!


Careful not to step in a poodle then.

After this round, and one more to impact the upper Midwest, may stay quiet for a bit. Doesn't that HP seem a bit too high? 1051 mbar?

Quoting 1005. StAugustineFL:



True thus far it hasn't been too bad but I wouldn't paint your locale as representation of the entire state. Here is a radar of my area from earlier. I could count several storms that had potential - many were tornado warned - myself included. We were lucky.





The system treated us the same in SE Louisiana. I stayed up Friday night and tracked with our local mets that stayed on. Everyou cell had that curved and hook look to it. They would spin up and disappear, than a new storm would form and smash the same spot. I noticed though, if you tilted the radar a bit and looked at the mid-level rotation... it was downright scary, some of the bigger cells would have 3 or 4 separate areas of tight radar couplets
Quoting 1002. daddyjames:

Not Weather related, but interesting none-the-less:

United Airlines grounds domestic flights because of IT issue
(CNN) United Airlines grounded all domestic mainline flights Sunday night because of a computer problem, United spokeswoman Maddie King told CNN.

"We have issued a ground stop for all domestic mainline flights due to an IT issue," King said. "We are working as quickly as possible to resolve this issue and get our customers to their final destinations. We apologize for the inconvenience to our customers."

A ground stop is in place for domestic flights due to an IT issue. We're working on a resolution. We apologize for the inconvenience.

— United (@united) January 23, 2017



Update: United Airlines lifts ground stop for domestic flights

United Airlines said on Sunday that a ground stop issued earlier in the day has been lifted.

“We’re working to get flights on their way,” the airline said. “We apologize for the inconvenience to our customers”

UPDATE: The ground stop has been lifted. We’re working to get flights on their way. We apologize for the inconvenience to our customers.

— United (@united) January 23, 2017
Quoting 1008. Dakster:



Careful not to step in a poodle then.




wish we had the plus button.
South florida, watch out

Sun sentinel says:

A tornado watch is expected to be issued for South Florida, meaning that the atmosphere will likely be conducive for a tornado.

Yipes!
Humid as H$$$ down here...
Quoting 1009. daddyjames:

After this round, and one more to impact the upper Midwest, may stay quiet for a bit. Doesn't that HP seem a bit too high? 1051 mbar?


Not really--it's a strong one but there have been high pressure centers over 1060 mb in the west before. Where you see a number, add 10 to the beginning and divide by 10. For example, 633 becomes 1063.3

I am back under a Tornado warning so disregard my last post
Am I missing something or what TF. I've been on WU for ten years. Every post I have to click the little blue eye on the right of each blogger to get the post. Every bloggers post says they joined in 1969 which I believe is before Al Gore invented the internet. What happened to the people who used to run the web site. No new blogs from Masters or Mr. Henson during one of worst outbreaks of severe weather in years in January. IBM has screwed up another company.
Quoting 998. Dakster:

Wish I could plus these posts, so instead I will have to post a big thank you to those that are keeping us up to the minute on weather conditions.
Lots of people really worked well together this weekend. And I was quite impressed with Luisport's posts earlier. He was definitely timely, eyeing all those twitter feeds, and posting pertinent info fast on here.

Quoting 1018. Icybubba:

I am back under a Tornado warning so disregard my last post

I assumed you were in a different part of the county. Best of luck!
Lowest pressure in the storm so far, Dalton GA, 28.97"
Quoting 1020. LAbonbon:

Lots of people really worked well together this weekend. And I was quite impressed with Luisport's posts earlier. He was definitely timely, eyeing all those twitter feeds, and posting pertinent info fast on here.


I assumed you were in a different part of the county. Best of luck!

Well it is weird I am apparently outside of the box according to the NWS but TWC says I am under a Tornado Warning
Tornado Watch extended throughout SFL.



WOUS64 KWNS 230253
WOU4

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
955 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2017

TORNADO WATCH 24 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 AM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC009-011-015-021-027-043-049-051-055-061-071-081 -085-086-087-
093-097-099-105-111-115-231100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.170123T0255Z-170123T1100Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HIGHLANDS
INDIAN RIVER LEE MANATEE
MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE
OKEECHOBEE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH
POLK SARASOTA ST. LUCIE


AMZ552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-836-856-2311 00-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0024.170123T0255Z-170123T1100Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

BISCAYNE BAY

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE FL OUT 20 NM

CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...MFL...

Quoting 1008. Dakster:



Careful not to step in a poodle then.




I dodged them poodles! LOL : )
Quoting 1019. ozelloslim:

Am I missing something or what TF. I've been on WU for ten years. Every post I have to click the little blue eye on the right of each blogger to get the post. Every bloggers post says they joined in 1969 which I believe is before Al Gore invented the internet. What happened to the people who used to run the web site. No new blogs from Masters or Mr. Henson during one of worst outbreaks of severe weather in years in January. IBM has screwed up another company.

first off
shouldn't really be swearing
second work is being done with switching servers
so things are dually till complete
third chill out
admin checked in full update in the am
on all the weather over weekend complete breakdown

anything else you want to know
Quoting 1017. BaltimoreBrian:

Not really--it's a strong one but there have been high pressure centers over 1060 mb in the west before. Where you see a number, add 10 to the beginning and divide by 10. For example, 633 becomes 1063.3




ECMWF has it maxing out at 1056 - which would be close to, if not, a record. :P
Shows it sitting over Nevada/Utah which have not seen pressures that high.

Yeah, I know those maps - since it took me about an hour or so to figure out what those numbers meant (see the first few comments of this blog).

All in all - everyone will get a much deserved break. Long Island/NE gonna get a bit of this storm (in the form of winds) before all is said and done.
Quoting 1022. Icybubba:


Well it is weird I am apparently outside of the box according to the NWS but TWC says I am under a Tornado Warning

Always go w/ NWS. You sure TWC wasn't referring to a STS?


(Source)

Quoting 1025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


first off
shouldn't really be swearing
second work is being done with switching servers
so things are dually till complete
third chill out
admin checked in full update in the am
on all the weather over weekend complete breakdown

anything else you want to know

uh, you forgot change filter to "show all" to unhide...
1029. Dakster
Quoting 1025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


first off
shouldn't really be swearing
second work is being done with switching servers
so things are dually till complete
third chill out
admin checked in full update in the am
on all the weather over weekend complete breakdown

anything else you want to know


Yeah, can you WuMail me the winning powerball numbers? ;)

In all seriousness, thanks for the update.
1030. auburn
Quoting 1019. ozelloslim:

Am I missing something or what TF. I've been on WU for ten years. Every post I have to click the little blue eye on the right of each blogger to get the post. Every bloggers post says they joined in 1969 which I believe is before Al Gore invented the internet. What happened to the people who used to run the web site. No new blogs from Masters or Mr. Henson during one of worst outbreaks of severe weather in years in January. IBM has screwed up another company.


You should set your filter to "Show All"
You might also read this.

From Dr. Jeff Masters on the wunderground.com blog issues.
"Sorry for the continued problems with the blogs. The admins are looking at it again, but the issue is difficult to resolve since we are transitioning to serving our pages from a 3rd-party source (Amazon Web Services) that doesn't give us the sort of diagnostics we need to really dig into the issue. In the longer term, we are committed to junking the entire blog software system in about three months, and will transition to a 3rd party blog software system called Drupal."
Jeff Masters
Thank you.
email send dak

lol
@BaltimoreBrian

BTW no one was able to answer your question the last time the CONUS was below 1000 mbar average pressure. When was it?
Anyone else intrigued by the hurricane-force wind warning adjacent to Long Island that's been there all day (and maybe yesterday)?

Other things that have vexed me as of late, and are as yet 'unsolved':

- the 2 PDO indices

- the mystery of the cold weather in Bolivia and Peru at the end of last year (the alpacas!)

- where to find this cool satellite loop that was part of SPC's morning briefing today:


Quoting 1027. LAbonbon:


Always go w/ NWS. You sure TWC wasn't referring to a STS?


(Source)



I am in north Brevard and yeah I am sure it said "Tornado Warning", anyways they are doing weird stuff the warned area is like 1 hour away from me now and they reissued the Warning
I am bracing for the worst here in South Florida (WEst Boca Raton, FL) .
Quoting 1033. LAbonbon:

Anyone else intrigued by the hurricane-force wind warning adjacent to Long Island that's been there all day (and maybe yesterday)?

Other things that have vexed me as of late, and are as yet 'unsolved':

- the 2 PDO indices

- the mystery of the cold weather in Bolivia and Peru at the end of last year (the alpacas!)

- where to find this cool satellite loop that was part of SPC's morning briefing today:





Maybe this will resolve one of them.

Factors contributing to uncertainty in Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (opens a pdf)

Abstract Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index is an important indicator of climate variability. However,
large discrepancies are found among real-time PDO monitoring indices maintained by several operational
centers, with larger uncertainty exhibiting prior to 1950s and after late 1990s on seasonal to decadal
time scales. Two historical sea surface temperature (SST) data sets are used to investigate causes for the
uncertainty: the Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 3b (ERSST 3b) and the Hadley
Center Sea Ice and SST data set (HadISST) version 1. It is found that choices of spatial structure of Empirical
Orthogonal Function (EOF) vector and SST data set are important sources of uncertainty on seasonal to
decadal time scales, while choice of climatological base period only contributes to uncertainty on seasonal
time scale. Decadal variation of differences in PDO indices from ERSST and HadISST is associated with
systematic differences between the two data sets in the central and the north-eastern Pacifc.
These rain numbers are getting crazy for January Storm # 6 2.40" at my place so far thru 7pm PST

Link

Rainfall totals much higher in North San Diego County so far and I thunk the front has passed thru.

1038. Dakster
Quoting 1031. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

email send dak

lol


Thanks. IT would be a heck of a weird coincidence if they hit. I'll send you a finders fee.
Quoting 1034. Icybubba:


I am in north Brevard and yeah I am sure it said "Tornado Warning", anyways they are doing weird stuff the warned area is like 1 hour away from me now and they reissued the Warning

Yeah, I see that now.

Quoting 1033. LAbonbon:

Anyone else intrigued by the hurricane-force wind warning adjacent to Long Island that's been there all day (and maybe yesterday)?




The hurricane force winds on Long Island are courtesy of the Low in the SE moving off the coast.

1041. hydrus
NWS said the southern plateau are getting hit with very high winds...

Quoting 1041. hydrus:

NWS said the southern plateau are getting hit with very high winds...


would be a pretty good bet they are
Quoting 1040. daddyjames:



The hurricane force winds on Long Island are courtesy of the Low in the SE moving off the coast.



Doesn't it seem like that warning's been around a while? Don't usually see that there for that duration. Going by my memory, anyway.
Quoting 1038. Dakster:



Thanks. IT would be a heck of a weird coincidence if they hit. I'll send you a finders fee.
it would freak you out no doubt like always sometimes things happen
# 1036 - daddyjames

"It is found that choices of spatial structure of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) vector and SST data set are important sources of uncertainty on seasonal to decadal time scales, while choice of climatological base period only contributes to uncertainty on seasonal time scale."

EOF...think this is where I might have hit a brick wall last time... BUT, this one is more understandable than the last one for me (it was all EOF, iirc). I'll let you know. Thanks, dj!
Quoting 1043. LAbonbon:


Doesn't it seem like that warning's been around a while? Don't usually see that there for that duration. Going by my memory, anyway.


Have no idea - when did they first issue the warning? Think that they are going to experience higher winds in the next couple of hours extending over a day or so.
Quoting 1046. daddyjames:



Have no idea - when did they first issue the warning? Think that they are going to experience higher winds in the next couple of hours extending over a day or so.

Not sure, will have to dig a bit. Think it was yesterday? Not positive though, as my focus was on the SE.
Wind is really picking up here in Jupiter
Quoting 1045. LAbonbon:

# 1036 - daddyjames

"It is found that choices of spatial structure of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) vector and SST data set are important sources of uncertainty on seasonal to decadal time scales, while choice of climatological base period only contributes to uncertainty on seasonal time scale."

EOF...think this is where I might have hit a brick wall last time... BUT, this one is more understandable than the last one for me (it was all EOF, iirc). I'll let you know. Thanks, dj!


There are various factors that could contribute to the SSTs observed (T = temperatures). The EOF is used to calculate how much each factor is contributing to the SST, and only that caused by the PDO is used to determine the strength of the PDO. For example, global warming and ENSO could contribute to the overall SST, but have to be removed to be able to appropriately calculate the PDO index (based only upon the contributions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

Edit: If you have ever done a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), it is the same thing (essentially) as an EOF.

Additional Edit: The spatial structure has to do with the fact that the SSTs are on gridded datasets. That would have an effect, if there are differences in the sizes of the grids between different datasets.
Unless something else weird happens, it looks like now it is over for me, again just wind, rain, and lightning
Quoting 1046. daddyjames:



Have no idea - when did they first issue the warning? Think that they are going to experience higher winds in the next couple of hours extending over a day or so.

My memory was faulty. First issued this morning, 4:47 am EST. Maybe today just felt like a looong day...kind of like yesterday, actually.
1052. vis0
Quoting 1033. LAbonbon:

Anyone else intrigued by the hurricane-force wind warning adjacent to Long Island that's been there all day (and maybe yesterday)?

Other things that have vexed me as of late, and are as yet 'unsolved':

- the 2 PDO indices

- the mystery of the cold weather in Bolivia and Peru at the end of last year (the alpacas!)

- where to find this cool satellite loop that was part of SPC's morning briefing today:




(These CLIPs have nothing to do with todays storms, just a look back at some TS in a similar colouring )
The SAT imagery LAbonbon mentioned  reminds me of my funktopGal SATs as::

https://archive.org/details/2016MATTHEWAndNICOLE
(will post the Joaquin version in a few days)

for the more conventional view (ignore my overlayed text) the IR of
2016 ~Karl, Lisa, Matthew and Nicole
https://archive.org/details/KarlLisaMatthewYNicol e2016Hurricanes
Quoting 1049. daddyjames:



There are various factors that could contribute to the SSTs observed (T = temperatures). The EOF is used to calculate how much each factor is contributing to the SST, and only that caused by the PDO is used to determine the strength of the PDO. For example, global warming and ENSO could contribute to the overall SST, but have to be removed to be able to appropriately calculate the PDO index (based only upon the contributions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation).

Edit: If you have ever done a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), it is the same thing (essentially) as an EOF.

We really need the plus system back, so we can acknowledge that we've seen a response, without necessarily having to reply at that time :/
Quoting 1053. LAbonbon:


We really need the plus system back, so we can acknowledge that we've seen a response, without necessarily having to reply at that time :/


That we do - I also added an additional comment to the original post. :D
Quoting 1053. LAbonbon:


We really need the plus system back, so we can acknowledge that we've seen a response, without necessarily having to reply at that time :/

Honestly though, I have not been on here since Otto, and I am disappointed, lack of updates from Jeff, 1969.......and no plus system, honestly what happened here in 2 months?
Curious to see what this line does as it enters SFL. Near record heat here today.
Quoting 1054. daddyjames:



That we do - I also added an additional comment to the original post. :D

Darn it. I had already emailed myself your answer to mull over when I have a chance to read the article you linked. Thanks...re-emailed :)
Quoting 1058. LAbonbon:


Darn it. I had already emailed myself your answer to mull over when I have a chance to read the article you linked. Thanks...re-emailed :)


plus ;)
Quoting 1056. Icybubba:


Honestly though, I have not been on here since Otto, and I am disappointed, lack of updates from Jeff, 1969.......and no plus system, honestly what happened here in 2 months?

Don't know. I was off the site for a while, doing other things. Just came back in December and it was 'quirky'. (Were you 'rainbowed' at all?)

Seems like one area where WU could really (and seemingly easily) improve would be in communicating issues. Whether it be by blog, or a little box on the main page with issues/updates, etc., folks would at least understand what/how/why/when.
1061. vis0
Quoting 1057. ProgressivePulse:

Curious to see what this line does as it enters SFL. Near record heat here today.


Me too as to Florida, Bahamas and if the fetch stays connected to whatever builds off Long Island, NY as hurricane force wind warnings went up at ~ midday (Sunday) though some forecaster here already hinted at 60+ winds last eve/night.
The 75mph+ wind area is wider off Long Island, NY now than what I SAW AT MIDDAY.
i'm in Manhattan NYC ~72Longtitude and still My EASTERN/ese facing window shade is being suck against window which is 1/4 '' open the shade rattle every now and then (4-6 mins) since ~7pm Sunday.

From Texas to NY this /these (so close to each other) LOWS have a long CONSTANT fetch of winds...remember Patrap posting the line of LOWs everywhere.
Quoting 1052. vis0:


(These CLIPs have nothing to do with todays storms, just a look back at some TS in a similar colouring )
The SAT imagery LAbonbon mentioned  reminds me of my funktopGal SATs as::

https://archive.org/details/2016MATTHEWAndNICOLE
(will post the Joaquin version in a few days)

for the more conventional view (ignore my overlayed text) the IR of
2016 ~Karl, Lisa, Matthew and Nicole
https://archive.org/details/KarlLisaMatthewYNicol e2016Hurricanes

Thanks, vis. (btw, I did see your wumail, will respond soon.) And, not weather related at all, but pertaining to your funny as heck comment the other day about the former First Dog Bo being afraid of the second color of the spectrum...looks like one your basic premises is incorrect...there's research on it and everything...Can Dogs See Colors

Enjoy :D
Pretty decent rain amounts. Some of these areas are already experiencing flash flooding.



Link to these Flash Flood Warnings

Odd winds here in jupiter, fl tonight. Big gusts up to 40 I'd say, then a quick lull and a down burst of sort.
Indian Hills (just North of me) has received 1.67" today, The forecast was for around 2", so close... and way more than normal...
No warnings for some time now, night all..
Well, that's enough weather for me. Hoping you all have a quiet and safe evening. ProgressivePulse, hope you're not up too late waiting for that front.

Goodnight, all.
Quoting 1032. daddyjames:

@BaltimoreBrian

BTW no one was able to answer your question the last time the CONUS was below 1000 mbar average pressure. When was it?
According to coolwx.com, which has been tracking weather stats since September 8, 1994, it has only happened once since they started their page: March 9, 2006.

Lowest U.S. Mean Pressure:
01/21/2017-11Z 1000.9 mb
10/25/2010-22Z 1000.7 mb
03/10/2006-02Z 1000.7 mb
01/21/2017-20Z 1000.7 mb
03/09/2006-20Z 1000.4 mb
03/10/2006-01Z 1000.3 mb
03/10/2006-00Z 1000.0 mb
03/09/2006-21Z 999.8 mb
03/09/2006-22Z 999.7 mb
03/09/2006-23Z 999.6 mb
And the highest mean pressure

Highest U.S. Mean Pressure:
01/15/2005-14Z 1036.6 mb
01/16/2005-02Z 1036.6 mb
01/16/2005-06Z 1036.6 mb
01/16/2005-03Z 1036.7 mb
01/16/2005-04Z 1036.7 mb
01/16/2005-05Z 1036.8 mb
01/15/2005-18Z 1036.9 mb
01/15/2005-15Z 1037.1 mb
01/15/2005-16Z 1037.4 mb
01/15/2005-17Z 1037.4 mb
Quoting 1066. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills (just North of me) has received 1.67" today, The forecast was for around 2", so close... and way more than normal...


2.91" and counting! Rivers in California looking pretty good! Santa Margarita River near Camp Pendleton Marine Base is 11'5"......7 " over flood stage.

welp looks like it is time for me to enter back into hibernation until the next interesting thing happens, which will most likely be the first Tropical cyclone of 2017
Thank you everyone for your many wonderfully informative, timely posts regarding the severe weather threat today. I was concerned for many family, friends, and fellow bloggers throughout the day, and your posts were very helpful.

Oh and while the plussing system is MIA, I mentally plussed many of your comments. So just squint your eyes really hard and pretend you see the many plus' in it's usual location...
Quoting 1041. hydrus:

NWS said the southern plateau are getting hit with very high winds...




That mid level low sitting stationary around Chattanooga Tennessee is a weird phenomenon.
I thought my eyes were deceiving me when I looked at the Base Radial Velocity for the incoming squall. Turns out that storm really was rotating. Tornado warning for... somewhere in Palm Beach County. (Spotted it long before the warning CX)
And that somewhere happens to be right over my house now .-.
1077. MahFL
Quoting 1074. frank727:



That mid level low sitting stationary around Chattanooga Tennessee is a weird phenomenon.


If you use a 40 frame radar on fast setting, it's opening up a little and sinking SSE :

Hope all the Floridians who called it a night are paying attention to the weather. Two current tornado warnings, one in Collier County and one in Palm Beach County. (ProgressivePulse - Jupiter is mentioned)



NWS-Miami Twitter feed

Never thought I could use WU's Base Radial Velocity to spot and track a rotating cell, but here I am doing it.
Rotation has weakened and moved offshore.
Quoting 1080. isothunder67:

Never thought I could use WU's Base Radial Velocity to spot and track a rotating cell, but here I am doing it.

Are you in Palm Beach County? I've got WPTV livestream up - love how they tell their viewers when they can go to bed (as a county 'clears', they tell them they can go to bed). Never saw that before.
Today was impactful enough, but low-level winds out of the south-southwest instead of what should have been the southeast helped mitigate the tornado threat by ensuring storm mode remained largely linear instead of discrete. The only place low-level winds were backed were near the triple point in southern Georgia..where the extremely long lived/probably violent tornado occurred near Albany. If low-level winds had been out of the southeast, we probably would have seen 70+ tornadoes. Luckily that wasn't the case.
Quoting 1083. LAbonbon:


Are you in Palm Beach County? I've got WPTV livestream up - love how they tell their viewers when they can go to bed (as a county 'clears', they tell them they can go to bed). Never saw that before.


Yup. I don't really pay attention to the local news. In my opinion you can't trust it when it comes to somethings [ESPECIALLY weather].
NWS-Miami:

205AM strong storm, possibly tornadic, approaching the Broward-Palm Beach county line near US 27 #FLwx
Quoting 1085. isothunder67:



Yup. I don't really pay attention to the local news. In my opinion you can't trust it when it comes to somethings [ESPECIALLY weather].

Understood. When I lived in South Louisiana though there were (still are) some fantastic mets on local stations.
1088. OCF
Quoting 1037. HurricaneHunterJoe:

These rain numbers are getting crazy for January Storm # 6 2.40" at my place so far thru 7pm PST

Link

Rainfall totals much higher in North San Diego County so far and I thunk the front has passed thru.



Here in Long Beach, with the second band coming through now, we'll be right at 4 inches for the day. Apparently that's an all-time 1-day record for the station. I said I'd seen my street rise like that maybe only once before (and that was more than 20 years ago) - so that makes sense.

But it does look like Long Beach is just about the wettest place around for this storm, which is a little unusual - we're usually not that, since we're quite a long ways from the mountains.
Meanwhile, in the Gulf of Mexico...

January Storm # 6 Still spitting rain. Pretty amazing numbers so far. At my location 3.41" as of 2am PST, Have had measurable rain for 13 straight hours. North San Diego County (where I live) got more rain than the southern part. Will see how it all adds up when the rain stops supposedly on Tuesday. Only one river flooding, the Santa Margarita by Oceanside/Camp Pendleton Marine Base. Showers forecast for Monday-Tuesday and maybe a bit of snow!

Quoting 1088. OCF:


Here in Long Beach, with the second band coming through now, we'll be right at 4 inches for the day. Apparently that's an all-time 1-day record for the station. I said I'd seen my street rise like that maybe only once before (and that was more than 20 years ago) - so that makes sense.

But it does look like Long Beach is just about the wettest place around for this storm, which is a little unusual - we're usually not that, since we're quite a long ways from the mountains.


That's great! Still raining down here and total is up to 3.41"
Some very nice rain totals from Orange County



And Riverside County also

Quoting 1074. frank727:



That mid level low sitting stationary around Chattanooga Tennessee is a weird phenomenon.


Last night was quite eventful here in Gordon, county( Calhoun, Ga). We had over 4 inches of rain, which caused flash flooding, and many many trees toppled. The trees and wind took down power lines and caused power outages county wide. Our power was out till late over in the night. The county schools are out today because of flooded road and trees down. It was quite a thrill(meteorological) to experience the winds and rain as the low spun itself like a hurricane. I do not remember what the pressure was but it was extremely low here and the eye was pretty on the radar. We were in the right quadrant as it rapidly strengthened right here over us last evening.
High Surf Advisory North Shore Oahu I would think. Maybe the Eddie Aikau will be on or possibly a Mavericks event across in CA.

Quoting 844. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Quoting 1069. BaltimoreBrian:

According to coolwx.com, which has been tracking weather stats since September 8, 1994, it has only happened once since they started their page: March 9, 2006.

Lowest U.S. Mean Pressure:
01/21/2017-11Z 1000.9 mb
10/25/2010-22Z 1000.7 mb
03/10/2006-02Z 1000.7 mb
01/21/2017-20Z 1000.7 mb
03/09/2006-20Z 1000.4 mb
03/10/2006-01Z 1000.3 mb
03/10/2006-00Z 1000.0 mb
03/09/2006-21Z 999.8 mb
03/09/2006-22Z 999.7 mb
03/09/2006-23Z 999.6 mb


Thanks BB
1097. beell
Quoting 1084. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Today was impactful enough, but low-level winds out of the south-southwest instead of what should have been the southeast helped mitigate the tornado threat by ensuring storm mode remained largely linear instead of discrete. The only place low-level winds were backed were near the triple point in southern Georgia..where the extremely long lived/probably violent tornado occurred near Albany. If low-level winds had been out of the southeast, we probably would have seen 70+ tornadoes. Luckily that wasn't the case.


Sometimes the models are correct! Although it was a squall line...

115. beell
12:30 PM GMT on January 18, 2017

...Hopefully, the cold front will quickly undercut the convection and temper the risk. Models show a quickly veering wind profile in the low levels.


Good Morning. A tragic and amazing weather event for parts of the South this weekend and condolences to the families of those killed in MS/AL/GA. Here are the storm reports for yesterday including the tornadoes which killed several people.

Something for NOAA and Emergency Managers to think about in the future. If you have a pending weather event where SPC has designated an area with a significant risk of tornadoes, or a PDS watch like yesterday, you might want to consider mandatory evacuations of Mobile Home Parks (where the majority of the deaths from this event occurred) and opening temporary shelters in local schools or government buildings until the event is over.

Much like what we do when hurricanes threaten but cost effective given a very short-term stay.

yesterday Reports Graphic

Many of us, including myself, spent the day calling relatives in North Florida and South Georgia who live in mobile homes to tell them to come over to our house or to go to a relative or friends sturdier home to ride out the squall line. Next time, I hope local police and governments are mobilizing local buses (school or otherwise) and offering rides to mobile home park residents to a locally designated safe space if they want/do not feel safe in their homes...............This type of action, knowing that a very severe event is on the way, could have saved lives yesterday.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Also noting that this particular stretch of real estate in Southern AL/GA (essentially near the Road 84 corridor) has been quite deadly in the past in terms of tornadoes. Albany/Adell GA got hit hard yesterday and several years ago, the same type of event occurred in Enterprise, AL (on a few occasions) just to their West. Something about the dynamics associated with this particular region has spun up strong tornadoes in the past. In the case of Enterprise tornado of 2007, which killed 8 students, they were already in a "safe" building in town in their school when that tornado, in March 2007, hit.  



1102. barbamz


Short good morning hello from deeply frozen (but sunny) Germany with lowest temps last night in the south at -19,7C (-3,5F), and around -11C (12,2F) at my parent's near Frankfurt. I'm still away from home, so not much posting, but I noticed the severe and unfortunately deadly weather in the US the last day and night. Sympathies!

Here an update on the former blog topic:
Snow and singing: How avalanche survivors made it through 40 hours in hotel wreckage
The Local (Italy), Jan 23
Survivors of Italy's avalanche disaster have recounted how they ate snow to stay hydrated and sang to keep their spirits up while huddling in pitch black, cramped cavities in the mangled wreckage of the Hotel Rigopiano.
Their traumatic tales emerged as rescuers said on Monday morning they hoped to find some of the 23 people still unaccounted for, more than 48 hours after they last detected signs of life in the icy ruins. ...


Still very wild weather in the western and central Mediterranean:

Current IR loop.


One dead as rain wreaks havoc in southern Italy

The Local (Italy), Jan 23
Catania (Sicily) is on high alert after torrential rain caused havoc across the region on Sunday afternoon and into Monday. At least one person has been reported dead and several families evacuated from their homes due to the extreme weather. ...
In some areas, over 200 mililitres of rain fell in less than 12 hours ...


Ah, a new blog ;-)
This is one month

There is a new blog. It cannot be accessed with Category 6, but can be found with the blog directory.
January Storm # 6 is still active with rain showers. Rainfall total mi casa thus far 3.85". Maybe a little snow today.....hope so!

Quoting 1103. PedleyCA:

This is one month




Ain't that some kinda nice!