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A Swarm of 31 Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters Socked the Planet in 2016

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:41 PM GMT on January 17, 2017

Earth had a tough year for billion-dollar weather-related natural disasters in 2016, with 31. This is the fourth-largest number on record going back to 1990, said insurance broker Aon Benfield in their Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report issued January 17 (updated January 23 to include a 31st billion-dollar disaster, the Gatlinburg, Tennessee fire.) The average from 1990 - 2016 was 22 billion-dollar weather disasters; the highest number since 1990 was 41, in 2013. The combined economic losses from all 315 weather and earthquake disasters catalogued by Aon Benfield in 2016 was $210 billion, which is 21% above the 16-year average of $174 billion. The U.S. had the most billion-dollar weather disasters of any country, with fifteen included on the Aon Benfield list (plus one more catalogued by NOAA--see below). China came in second, with seven. Flooding was the most expensive peril globally for the fourth year in a row.

The report noted: “…it can be concluded that there has been an increase in both annual and individual weather disaster costs in the last nearly four decades. It can reasonably be assumed that the combination of effects from climate change, more intense weather events, greater coastal exposures and population migration patterns are all equal contributors to the loss trend.”

Natural disasters (including earthquakes) killed approximately 8250 people in 2016, a small fraction of the 2001 - 2015 average of around 71,000 fatalities per year and also far below the median number per year (around 22,500). The deadliest weather disaster of 2016 was Hurricane Matthew (605 killed in the U.S. and Caribbean, with unofficial estimates in Haiti as high as 1600), while the costliest weather-related disaster was the $28 billion Yangtze River floods in China.

Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurance firm, put global losses from natural disasters at $175 billion in 2016, compared to $71 billion in 2015. The high losses in 2016 were driven by increasingly powerful storms and an “exceptionally" high number of severe floods, with flooding causing more than a third of all losses, well above the 10-year average of 21%.


Figure 1. The yearly number of billion-dollar global weather disasters, adjusted for inflation, as compiled by insurance broker Aon Benfield in their Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Reports. The increasing trend in weather disaster losses is at least partially due to increases in wealth and population, and to people moving to more vulnerable areas--though the studies attempting to correct damage losses for these factors are highly uncertain. Climate change may also be partly to blame for the rise in disaster losses. We discussed this topic in more detail in a 2012 post, Damage Losses and Climate Change.

Four nations see their costliest weather disasters in history
By comparing the Aon Benfield numbers to historical disaster costs at EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, we see that at least four nations set records for their all-time most expensive weather-related disaster in 2016. For comparison, nine nations had their most expensive weather-related natural disasters in history in 2015. Here are the nations that set records in 2016 for their most expensive weather-related disaster in history:

Fiji suffered $1.4 billion in damage from Tropical Cyclone Winston in February 2016 (32% of GDP.) This beats the $167 million cost of Tropical Cyclone Kina of January 1993 (2016 dollars) for most expensive disaster in Fiji’s history. (Note: EM-DAT puts Winston’s damage in Fiji at $470 million.)

Zimbabwe suffered $1.6 billion in damage from its drought in 2016 (11% of GDP.) Their previous most expensive weather-related disaster was the $262 million cost (2016 dollars) of a February 25, 2003 flood.

Haiti suffered $1.9 billion in damage from Hurricane Matthew (21% of GDP.) Haiti’s previous most expensive hurricane: $1.17 billion (2016 dollars) from Hurricane Allen in 1980.

Sri Lanka suffered $1.8 billion in damage from Tropical Cyclone Roanu in May 2016 (2.2% of GDP.) Their previous most expensive disaster was the $321 million cost (2016 dollars) of the February 1, 2011 flood. (Note: EM-DAT puts Roanu’s damage in Sri Lanka at $2 billion.)


Aon Benfield’s tally of billion-dollar weather disasters globally for 2016
1) Flooding, Yangtze Basin, China, 5/1 - 8/1, $28.0 billion, 475 killed
2) Hurricane Matthew, Caribbean, Bahamas, U.S., 9/28 - 10/10, $15.5 billion, 603+ killed
3) Flooding, Louisiana U.S., 8/9 - 8/16, $10 - $15 Billion, 13 killed
4) Drought, China, 6/1 - 8/31, $6 billion, 0 killed
5) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.5 billion, 17 killed
6) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
7) Flooding, Northeast China 7/16 - 7/24, $4.7 billion, 289 killed
8) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $4.5 billion, 0 killed
9) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $4.3 billion, 1 killed
10) Drought, West-Northeast-Southeast U.S., 1/1 - 12/31, $3.5 billion, 0 killed
11) Drought, Thailand, 1/1 - 6/30, $3.3 billion, 0 killed
12) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $2.5 billion, 0 killed
13) Super Typhoon Meranti, China, Taiwan, Philippines, 9/13 - 9/16, $2.5 billion, 44 killed
14) Flooding, Texas U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $2.0 billion, 9 killed
15) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
16) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.8 billion, 6 killed
17) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.8 billion, 135 killed
18) Severe Weather, Plains-Rockies U.S., 7/28 - 7/29, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
19) Drought, Zimbabwe, 6/1 - 8/10, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
20) Flooding and Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.5 billion, 6 killed
21) Super Typhoon Nepartak, Philippines, Taiwan, China, 7/8 - 7/12, $1.4 billion, 111 killed
22) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.4 billion, 0 killed
23) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.4 billion, 44 killed
24) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
25) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.3 billion, 1 killed
26) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
27) Severe Weather, Netherlands, 6/23 - 6/24, $1.1 billion, 0 killed
28) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Mississippi Valley U.S., 5/7 - 5/10, $1.1 billion, 2 killed
29) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $1.0 billion, 58 killed
30) Super Typhoon Chaba, South Korea, Japan, 10/5 - 10/6, $1.0 billion, 10 killed
31) Wildfire, Tennessee U.S., 11/28, $1.0 billion, 14 killed


Figure 2. The yearly number of billion-dollar U.S. weather disasters, adjusted for inflation, as compiled by NOAA/NCEI.

U.S. sees 15 billion-dollar weather disasters
In the U.S., there were fifteen billion-dollar weather disasters in 2016, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Aon Benfield did not include the aggregated U.S. wildfire toll as a billion-dollar disaster in its list, whereas NOAA categorized it as a $2.0 billion disaster, with 21 deaths. (There are two other differences in the lists: Aon Benfeld rated the winter weather outbreak on January 21 as costing a billion dollars, while NOAA had lower damages, and NOAA rated a flood disaster centered in West Virginia on June 22 - 24 as costing $1.0 billion, while Aon Benfield had lower damages.) NOAA's fifteen billion-dollar weather disasters of 2016 marked the 2nd highest yearly total for the U.S. since 1980. The ten-year average is eight. Billion-dollar events account for roughly 80% of the total U.S. losses for all weather-related disasters. An unprecedented four billion-dollar flood disasters (non-hurricane related) hit the U.S. in 2016.

The 31 billion-dollar weather disasters of 2016

Multi-Month Drought Disaster 1. El Niño-related drought conditions began in India in 2015 and intensified during 2016, causing at least $5 billion in losses, making it by far the nation’s most expensive drought in history. The drought was worsened by a May heat wave that brought the hottest temperature ever recorded in India--51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi on May 19, 2016. Temperatures hit a record 46°C (114.8°F) at Indira Gandhi International Airport that day. as well. In this photo, we see Indian vendors sell bottles of drinking water to passengers at a bus stop on a hot day in Allahabad on May 21, 2016. Image credit: Sanjay Kanojia, Getty Images.


Multi-Month Drought Disaster 2. The El Niño event of 2015 - 2016 brought deficient rains and devastating drought to Thailand during the first half of 2016, causing $3.3 billion in agricultural losses. This picture taken on March 23, 2016 shows a farmer walking on his drought-hit rice field in Nonthaburi province outside Bangkok. Thailand has long served as one of the globe's biggest rice bowls, but a growing water shortage is now pushing the country to move away from the grain that dominates its fields and has defined a way of life for generations. Image credit: AFP/ Christophe Archambault.


Multi-Month Drought Disaster 3. Drought in Zimbabwe cost the nation $1.6 billion in 2016--by far their most expensive natural disaster in history. In this image, we see a cow grazing in the distance in the dry area of the decommissioned Upper Ncema Dam, which sank below 2 percent of its capacity on November 24, 2016 at Esigodini, South of Matabeleland. Image credit: Zinyange Auntony/AFP/Getty Images.


Multi-Month Drought Disaster 4. Severe drought began in June and intensified during August across northeastern China in the Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces. The Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) reported well-above-normal temperatures and reduced rainfall that damaged more than 3.1 million hectares (7.6 million acres), with total economic losses at $6 billion. In this image, we see drought conditions in China as of September 1, 2016. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.


Multi-Month Drought Disaster 5. Drought struck two widely separated parts of the United States in 2016. California continued to feel the impacts of a severe multiyear drought that began in 2012, including major crop losses and the death of more than 100 million trees. During the summer and autumn, drought intensified across parts of the Northeast and New England as well as the South. The southern and central Appalachians were especially hard hit, as rainfall dropped to record-low levels during autumn. Dozens of wildfires erupted in the tinder-dry forest, including a blaze that ravaged large parts of the Gatlinburg, Tennessee, area on November 28-29, 2016. Pictured above are dead and dying ponderosa and sugar pine in California’s Sequioa National Forest. Image credit: USDA Forest Service, via phys.org.

January

Disaster 1. A massive blizzard rocked the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. January 21 - 24, killing 58 and causing at least $1 billion in damage. The snowstorm was rated the 4th most severe to hit the area in the past 66 years, according to NOAA. In this image, we see residents being forced to walk in the streets of Washington, D.C. during the storm. Image credit: Joe Flood, NOAA.


Disaster 2. One of the most intense cold air outbreaks in decades brought record low temperatures and heavy snowfall throughout much of East Asia January 20 - 25, killing a combined 116 people in Taiwan, Thailand, China, Japan and South Korea. China reported more than $1.6 billion in damage from cold and snow, and Taiwan’s agricultural sector recorded its highest losses in 17 years. Total damage from the winter weather was estimated at $2 billion. In this image, we see row boats stuck in the ice of the frozen coastal waters of Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao in eastern China's Shandong province on January 25, 2016. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

February

Disaster 1. A powerful spring-like winter storm brought severe thunderstorms and heavy snowfall across much of the Central and Eastern U.S. from February 22 - 25, killing 10 and injuring dozens more. The National Weather Service confirmed 59 tornadoes, including four rated EF3. Total damage was estimated at $1.2 billion. In this image, we see damage in Waverly, Virginia, a day after a tornado barreled through the small community on February 25, 2016. Tornadoes killed four people in Virginia on February 24. Image credit: Jay Paul/Getty Images.

March
Disaster 1. A record-strength upper-level low pressure system that stalled out over Northern Mexico and Southern Texas brought widespread severe weather and at least $1.25 billion in damage to the U.S. from March 4 to 12. In this photo, we see flood damage in Haughton, Louisiana, on March 9, 2016, after rainfall in excess of 20" in a four-day period hit the Shreveport area, bringing historic flooding. Image credit: Michael Dean Newman.


Disaster 2.  A stationary front draped over Texas and the Gulf Coast on March 17 - 18 triggered widespread severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds hit Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida. The greatest damage occurred in Dallas-Fort Worth, where tennis ball-sized hail pummeled southern Tarrant County. Parts of southern Mississippi recorded baseball-sized hail. Total economic losses were expected to be $1 billion. In this photo, we see menacing mammatus clouds over Boerne Stage Field, Texas, on March 18, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer agrant414.


Disaster 3. A strong storm system tracked across central and eastern sections of the United States from March 22 - 25, injuring several people. The storm brought tornadoes, large hail, damaging straight-line winds and heavy snow to portions of the Rockies, Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. The costliest damage resulted from hail and thunderstorm winds in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Heavy snow and near hurricane-force winds caused property damage and travel delays throughout the Rockies and the High Plains. In this photo, we see an impressive shelf cloud from a thunderstorm over Tampa, Florida, on March 25, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer chelina.

April

Disaster 1. Torrential rains led to severe flooding across portions of Argentina and Uruguay from April 4 - 10. No serious injuries or fatalities were reported. Hardest hit was northeast Argentina, where seven-day rainfall totals tallied as much as 750 millimeters (29.53 inches] in parts of the provincial regions of Entre Rios, Corrientes, Santa Fe, Chaco, Formosa, and Santiago del Estero. More than 15,000 people were affected, with most of the damage occurring along the overflowing Paraná and Salado rivers. Substantial damage occurred to 4 percent of the country’s soybean crop. Total economic losses to agriculture in Argentina alone were estimated at $1.3 billion. In this image, we see flooding in Villa Paranacito, Entre Rios, Argentina, on April 28, 2016. (AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko)


Disaster 2. Severe thunderstorms caused catastrophic hail damage across parts of the Plains and Southeast from April 10 - 13, killing at least one person and injuring dozens more. The Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio metro regions in Texas were the hardest hit, where softball- and baseball-sized hail fell. Damage was estimated at $4.3 billion. In this photo, we see an impressive shelf cloud from a thunderstorm over Royce City, Texas, on April 11, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer Gweduc.


Disaster 3. Extreme rainfall of up to 17” created widespread urban flooding in Houston and surrounding suburbs April 15 - 19, killing eight people. Over 1,000 homes and businesses were damaged, and there were more than 1,800 high water rescues. It was the most widespread flood event to affect Houston since Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. The same storm also brought heavy snow and severe thunderstorms from April 15 - 19 to parts of the Rockies and Plains, killing one person. Damage was estimated at $2.0 billion. Above, we see a drone image of flooding in north Houston on April 20, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer Moussifer.


Disaster 4. A large outbreak of tornadoes affected numerous states across the South and Southeast April 29 - May 3, killing six people. Additional damage came from large hail and straight-line winds during the multi-day thunderstorm event, with total damage reaching $1.8 billion. In this image, we see a hailstorm hitting Mebane, NC on April 28, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer birdyboo.

May

Disaster 1. A devastating wildfire roared through Fort McMurray, Alberta in early May 2016, causing at least $4.5 billion in damage. In this photo, we see a group trying to rescue animals from Fort McMurray waiting at a roadblock as smoke rises from the fire on May 6, 2016. Image credit: Cole Burston/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. Tornadoes and severe storms caused widespread damage totaling $1.0 billion across the Plains and Central states (NE, MO, TX, OK, KS, CO, IL, KY, TN) May 7 - 10. The damage was greatest in Nebraska and Missouri. In this image, we see a rotating supercell thunderstorm with a wall cloud over Stillwater, OK, on May 9, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer gunhilda. 


Disaster 3.  Cyclone Roanu brought torrential rainfall and devastating floods and landslides to much of Sri Lanka and portions of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and China on May 14 - 21, 2016. At least 135 people were killed and damages were estimated at over $1.8 billion, making the most expensive weather-related disaster in Sri Lankan history. In this image, we see Sri Lankan military personnel take part in relief and rescue efforts following a landslide in the village of Bulathkohupitiya on May 18, 2016. (STR/AFP/Getty Images)


Disaster 4. A sustained period of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes affected several states including Montana, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri and Texas on May 21 - 28. The most concentrated days for tornado development were on May 22 and 24. Additional damage was created by straight-line high wind and hail damage, with total damage reaching $1.3 billion. In this image, we see a hailstone collected in Holyoke, CO on May 24, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer Imway.


Disaster 5. Extratropical storm "Elvira" spawned numerous severe thunderstorms and torrential rains across parts of northern Europe between May 26 and June 6, killing at least 17 people and causing $5.5 billion in damage. The heaviest damage was in Germany, France, Austria, Poland and Belgium. In this image, we see firemen rescuing two women on June 3, 2016 in Simbach am Inn, Germany. Image credit: Sebastian Widmann/Getty Images.

June

Disaster 1. Severe thunderstorms swept through the Netherlands, causing hail, wind and isolated flash flood damage in South Holland and Utrecht provinces on June 23 - 24, with damages estimated at $1.1 billion. In this image, we an arcus cloud from a severe thunderstorm over the A2 highway between Utrecht and Amsterdam on June 23, 2016. Image credit: ROBIN VAN LONKHUIJSEN/AFP/Getty Images.

July

Disaster 1. Super Typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan on July 7 as a Category 4 storm with 150-mph winds, killing 3 and causing over $20 million in damage. After weakening to a tropical storm, Nepartak made landfall in mainland China, where it killed at least 83 people and caused $1.4 billion in damage. Here, we see a radar image of Super Typhoon Nepartak taken at 11:30 am EDT July 7, 2016 (11:30 pm local time in Taiwan), when Nepartak was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: Taiwan CWB.


Disaster 2. Torrential rains fell in northern sections of China from July 16 - 24, leaving at least 289 people dead or missing, and causing $4.7 billion in damage. The hardest-hit provinces included Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Tianjin, and Shandong. More than 300,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and as many as 1.2 million hectares (3.0 million acres) of cropland was submerged. This photo taken on July 21, 2016 shows people making their way through a flooded area in Changping District in Beijing. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 3. Severe thunderstorms across the Rockies and Northeastern states (CO, WY, VA, MD, PA, NJ, NY) on July 28 - 29 caused large hail and high wind damage. Storm damage in Colorado was the most costly, due to hail, and total damage was estimated at $1.6 billion. In this image, we see a supercell thunderstorm hitting Wichita, Kansas, on July 28, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer GameShow.


Disaster 4. Earth's official most expensive weather-related disaster of 2016--and the third most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disaster in world history--was the extreme summer flooding in China’s Yangtze River basin. Torrential rains began in mid-May and peaked in July, causing catastrophic flooding that killed 475 and did $28 billion in damage. In this photo, we see a stadium in Wuhan, China on July 6, 2016, after the city received 7.09” (180 mm) of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8 am July 6. Wuhan received over 560 mm (1.8 feet) of rain over the ten day period before the July 6 deluge, causing widespread damage and chaos. Image credit: Wang He/Getty Images.

August

Disaster 1. Torrential rains of 20 - 30” fell over portions of Louisiana August 9 - 16 from a tropical depression-like storm that moved slowly across the southern U.S. for a week. Catastrophic flooding killed thirteen people, and damaged as many as 110,000 homes and 100,000 vehicles. Damage was estimated at $10 - $15 billion, which will likely make it the second most expensive non-hurricane related flood in U.S. history, behind the $35 billion in damage from the summer 1993 flooding in the Midwest. In this image, we see an aerial view of flooding in Hammond, Louisiana on August 13, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Max Becherer.


Disaster 2. Severe thunderstorms swept across parts of the Rockies and Plains on July 28 - 29, causing $1 billion in damage. Hardest hit was Colorado, where golf-ball-and-larger-sized hail struck the Colorado Springs metro area. Hail accumulations up to one feet (0.3 meters) fell in some areas, and torrential rains led to flash flooding. Heavy losses were also reported in Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota. In this image, we see an intense thunderstorm building over Boulder, Colorado on July 29, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer austncitylimits.

September

Disaster 1. After topping out as one of Earth’s top-ten strongest tropical cyclones on record, with a central pressure of 890 mb and sustained winds of 190 mph, Super Typhoon Meranti weakened to Category 2 strength before making landfall in China’s Fujian Province on September 15. Meranti killed 42 people and did $2.5 billion in damage to China. In Tawian, two people were killed, and damage was over $70 million. Above, we see the eye of Meranti directly over the Philippines’ Itbayat Island in a moonlight image from Japan’s Himiwari-8 satellite taken at 17:32 UTC September 13, 2016. Itbayat recorded sustained winds of 112 mph (10-minute average) and a pressure of 934 mb at 1 am local time, 32 minutes prior to this image. At the time, Meranti was a Category 5 storm with 190 mph winds--tied for the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in world recorded history. No deaths or injuries were reported on the island, but there was heavy damage.

October

Disaster 1. Category 5 Super Typhoon Chaba peaked at 165 mph winds south of Okinawa, Japan on October 3 before weakening to a Category 1 storm as it grazed South Korea on October 5. Southern South Korea was the hardest hit, with 10 fatalities as well as the large majority of the $1 billion in damage from the storm. In this image, we see an International Space Station view of the typhoon taken at 08 UTC October 3, 2016 when the storm was at peak intensity: a 905-mb central pressure and sustained winds of 165 mph.


Disaster 2. Category 4 Hurricane Matthew devastated Haiti on October 4, killing 546, making it the Atlantic’s deadliest hurricane in 11 years. Damage in Haiti was estimated at $1.9 billion--a staggering 21% of the impoverished nation’s GDP, and by far Haiti’s costliest hurricane on record, according to the international disaster database, EM-DAT. Matthew battered Cuba as a Category 4 storm, causing $2.6 billion in damage (3.2% of their GDP.) The Bahamas suffered $600 million in damage from Matthew (6.8% of GDP). Matthew grazed the coast of Florida and Georgia before making landfall in South Carolina on October 8 as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Matthew killed 49 people in the U.S., 28 of them in North Carolina. U.S. damage was estimated at up to $10 billion. This would make Matthew the 17th most expensive hurricane in U.S. history. Remnant moisture from Matthew also brought flooding rains and high winds to parts of the Maritime Provinces of Canada, causing tens of millions of dollars in damage. In this image, we see a small town along the southwestern coast of Haiti that suffered extreme storm surge damage from Hurricane Matthew. For a detailed look at Matthew’s aftermath at Haiti, see our guest post from December 16, 2016, by Andrew Kennedy and Tracy Kijewski-Correa, who visited the most-affected regions and evaluated the storm’s impact. Image credit: United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), via univision.com.

November

Disaster 1. Extreme drought contributed to deadly fires that roared through Gatlinburg, Tennessee on November 28, killing 14 and causing at least $1 billion in damage. In this image, we see smoke rising from destroyed buildings on November 29, 2016, at the Westgate Smoky Mountain Resort & Spa above Gatlinburg. Image credit: Paul Efird/Knoxville News Sentinel via AP.

A big thanks goes to Steve Bowen of Aon Benfield for helping out with our many questions on disaster stats. We’ll be back with a new post on Wednesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank You for that awesome overview and the pictures that Yall chose are stunning.  Will note that a great majority of these disasters (including drought and flood issues) occurred in the Northern Hemisphere.........................Wonder how many of these can be attributed directly or indirectly to the more frequent polar jet stream meanders and blocking patterns we have been seeing in recent years per the research by Dr. Francis and company:



In all seriousness, a fantastic and detailed summation of the natural disasters of 2016. Well done Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson.
Wow, those photos,....... I'm speechless. And that's not a joke.
most excellent blog post thanks have a good day
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iZeGGhyowpc/WH2fsYAIdBI/ AAAAAAAAWi4/YPyXEoXSgdkT9k8TOYvPFG8sA_FtyP0RQCLcB/ s1600/Jan-15-2017.jpg
Global sea ice falling off the charts.
Quoting 102. riverat544:

I read the abstract for a recent paper on the Larson A and B ice shelves that said the critical temperature for ice shelves is -9 degrees Celsius. If the average yearly temperature is above that then then ice shelf will break up, below that it will sustain. I'm sure it's not quite as simple as that but it may be a good benchmark for finding ice shelves that are in danger of breaking up.

I can't remember where I found the link. It might have been from one of Baltimore Brian's science article posts.


Riverat544, I don't recall linking an article about a -9°C threshold for ice-shelf breakup. I'd love to read it. Please post that here and on my blog :)
Floods in Thailand:
More rain and pain expected as Thai flood death toll rises to 40
Coconuts Bangkok - January 17 (15 h ago).

South of Thailand, about 10 days ago. Image source (an article published on January 9)

NASA analyzes heavy rainfall over Southern Thailand
SpaceRef - January 16.

Floods in Philippines:
Floods, landslides kill 5 in Mindanao
The Philippine Star - January 17 (updated about 1 h ago)
Incessant torrential rains over Northern Mindanao for the past several days have spawned widespread flooding and landslides, leaving at least five people dead, one missing and around 30 others injured, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said yesterday.
(...) The two weather systems dumped almost a month’s volume of rain in one day in Misamis Oriental, according to PAGASA.
Thanks, gentlemen!

The EM-DAT link is broken. This leads to blog entry list. Perhaps it should lead here?
Thanks for the updates....

ChiThom check your email
Excellent blog post, it should be placed under "Recommended Links"
BB, that article on heat storage last week was very interesting, thanks. Although not the same article, the crystal CO2 storage was same as I referenced last week, but think I said Argonne instead of ORNL, so thanks for that too.

In S C IL we are very overcast w/ some drizzle today, 44 w/ westerly winds around 10, had a 28 gust at some point, just under 30". Looking at 10 day, might hit freezing in a.m., then not see it again until last day of forecast. Know how 5+ can change, but still a very warm Jan. If not for those couple of single digit mornings I'd expect we're close to top 5 warmest, guess we'll see how final week shakes out and where we end up.

Maybe a tenth of an inch of ice here over weekend, no major problems fortunately for us, some outages S but nothing major. Road and Utility crews did an excellent job!

Patrap, you have a WUmail.
Quoting 12. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the updates.... ChiThom check your mail
I think the insurance companies and storm cost estimators need to use an annually regressed dollar for the costs -- for each successive year the dollar used for estimates is from the year preceding the one used for the previous year's estimates, so that the cost of such disasters is in constantly-shrinking dollars. (If this year's disaster costs are in 1980 dollars, next year's should be in 1979 dollars, etc.) The figures are getting too big to comprehend.
What a year.
Statistically 2017 should be quieter.
Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook




Excerpt:

The Week-1 outlook attempts to mesh historical characteristics of MJO activity in Phase 1 with CFS and ECENS guidance. Phase 1 of the MJO features enhanced precipitation for the Southeast Pacific and South America, with high confidence of above-average rainfall forecast for these areas. An equatorial Rossby wave in the Atlantic also results in a high confidence of above-average rainfall there. An atmospheric river is expected to bring yet another surge of tropical moisture into western North America, with accompanying high confidence of above-average rainfall for California and parts of the Desert Southwest. A 500-hPa closed low over the Misssissippi Valley is expected to bring above-average rain to the Southeast U.S. with high confidence. Continued below-average rainfall for the Central Pacific is favored associated with the low frequency state. Remaining Week-1 precipitation shapes are a result of dynamical model consensus between the CFS and ECENS.


Watch soap bubbles freeze in real time
CNN - A photographer captured mesmerizing footage of soap bubbles freezing in St. Paul, Minnesota.

Snow and... 8-/ Wildfire in Italy, near Genoa (drought-related, was apparently threatening several houses and disturbing traffic) - this is not a joke:
Incendio a Genova, situazione drammatica - meteotime.it, January 16.
Italy weather: Heavy snow grips earthquake region - BBC World, January 17 (3 h ago).
Just hit 80, nice breeze, partly cloudy, beautiful Spring day in mid January.
Could be a severe weather outbreak over the SE Sunday into Monday.





22. bwi
Nullschool visualizations of upper winds today. Have no idea what the 10hPa one means, but it's really cool

250hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobar ic/250hPa/orthographic=-93.02,86.14,280
10 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobar ic/10hPa/orthographic=-93.02,86.14,280
And here is the Aussie Enso forecast issued today; looks like a Neutral pattern for the next few months.

ENSO Wrap-Up
Current state of the Pacific and Indian oceans

Tropical Pacific Ocean remains ENSO neutral

In the tropical Pacific Ocean, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. A neutral ENSO period indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is not shifting the odds towards a significantly wetter or drier period for Australia. When ENSO is in a neutral phase weather extremes can and do occur due to the influence of secondary or local factors.

Most indicators of ENSO, such as sea surface temperatures, the 90-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the trade winds are within the ENSO-neutral range. However, cloudiness near the Date Line continues to show a weak La Niña-like pattern.

All climate models indicate that the Pacific Ocean is likely to remain ENSO neutral through the southern summer and autumn. Model outlooks that span the autumn period tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, therefore outlooks beyond May should be used with caution.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate during the months from December to April.


Quoting 2. weathermanwannabe:

 Will note that a great majority of these disasters (including drought and flood issues) occurred in the Northern Hemisphere.........................Wonder how many of these can be attributed directly or indirectly to the more frequent polar jet stream meanders and blocking patterns we have been seeing in recent years ...


From an earlier blog - CO2 distribution around the globe.

Quoting 17. TechnoCaveman:

What a year.
Statistically 2017 should be quieter.


Not anymore. Welcome to the new normal.
Last year, El Nino helped give us a record 13" of rain in January (our dry season here in Fort Myers, Fl).

The opposite this year. We're bone dry from several months of very little precipitation combined with well above average temperatures.
Quoting 30. washingaway:


It's getting difficult to tell the difference from satire and real life isn't it?


Welcome to the world of Poe's Law.
Quoting 10. elioe:

Thanks, gentlemen!

The EM-DAT link is broken. This leads to blog entry list. Perhaps it should lead here?


Fixed--thanks!
What about the November New Zealand earthquake? Or are we considering that a natural disaster and not weather?
Quoting 2. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You for that awesome overview and the pictures that Yall chose are stunning.  Will note that a great majority of these disasters (including drought and flood issues) occurred in the Northern Hemisphere.........................Wonder how many of these can be attributed directly or indirectly to the more frequent polar jet stream meanders and blocking patterns we have been seeing in recent years per the research by Dr. Francis and company:




There is much more land area and population in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere.


Incredible blog, gentlemen. Heartbreaking and informative at the same time. I await, with great expectation, the long version.
Quoting 34. AGWcreationists:

There is much more land area and population in the Northern Hemisphere than the Southern Hemisphere.


True; and also the great majority of the world's Co2 emissions which is probably inter-related to jet stream circulation issues in the Northern Hemisphere and the general notion put forth by many climate scientists that the Arctic/Northern latitudes will "feel" the effects of AGW more than the Southern one............In addition to the circulation of CO2 gasses, we have also documented the darkening (and heat absorption) of many glacial regions in the Arctic from industrial "soot" as well..............It's quite a strain on the Northern Half of the Earth.
39. vis0
Quoting 17. TechnoCaveman:

What a year.
Statistically 2017 should be quieter.

Quoting 26. Xyrus2000:



Not anymore. Welcome to the new normal.
if i may add, which statistics? (again as to the Globe)

With a warmer Atmosphere somewhere in the world its going to bah-low...be it too dry or too wet.

If technoCavemasn is lucky you's see 16 TS in some ocean basin but none go near land. The odds on those quiet years are lowering as we've experienced over the past few years.

If its not closer TStorms as to Hawaii,  its closer TS to Caribbean w/longer lasting w/backpacks, ...if not that its more than the 100 yr avg amount (per year) heading for Philippines ...if not that its weird turning TS near Australia or eastern Africa...and lets see if Brasil get another TS near by 

Sure we had those types for years before BUT there were quiet years in between even quiet years were ALL areas where quiet or an area had 4-6 quiet years.

i remember a saying that "it only took one" (to create havoc) which one would say around July, but last few years one already happened pre Spring. 
Soon it'll be it only takes another one to have to rebuild again.

Maybe giant robots can fight the TS and if that don't work throw money at the storm (see cmmntt#11 on this blogbyte)

Hold it, what's that? if you look at how much money we (not) saved by NOT fighting GW were already throwing money away and people will notice as prices go up even though nature  gave 2 generations worth of warnings via the knowledge of observing  basic physics (natures natural language).

Anywho, remember me saying late 2014 as to CA. future rains being more from a weird style as TS like LOWs near S. Ca. or weird Moduki type or a tomboy la nina but i switched to Taz's " La Nino" , ...no??! oh well. 

BTW  where is TWI? (seriously preparing for next week(s) i hope)
Thank you both....Incredible and amazing images..The power of nature has put me in a permanent state of awe..
Pattern should change significantly in the next week or so...

Quoting 37. weathermanwannabe:



True; and also the great majority of the world's Co2 emissions which is probably inter-related to jet stream circulation issues in the Northern Hemisphere and the general notion put forth by many climate scientists that the Arctic/Northern latitudes will "feel" the effects of AGW more than the Southern one............In addition to the circulation of CO2 gasses, we have also documented the darkening (and heat absorption) of many glacial regions in the Arctic from industrial "soot" as well..............It's quite a strain on the Northern Half of the Earth.
The Northern Hemisphere has 88 percent of the population and 90 percent of the disasters listed (27 of 30). Plus, there is more valuable property for the most part in the Northern Hemisphere. I think the percentage of large-scale disasters tracks closely to population. A severe tropical cyclone hitting NW Australia doesn't have a lot around to damage.


Quoting 167. Pipejazz:

If any of you have not yet seen the movie Hidden Figures, I give it 4 & 1/2 of 5 stars. I think it wasn't quite hard hitting enough based on my teenage observations in Birmingham Alabama years 1962 through 1972. The story line held me and the movie has some interesting historical TV news inserted.
I didn't believe the numbers on the "percent of GDP" with regards to Hurricane Matthew and so I looked it up...learned a new lesson today, Haiti and the Bahamas have the same GDP this past year...and I also did not know that Haiti has 10 million people according to the Google results?

Yeesh.
From StateImpact Pennsylvania:

Trump ‘worst possible scenario’ for climate, says Penn State scientist


COURTESY: MICHAEL MANN
"I couldn't have outlined anything more bleak than what we've seen," Dr. Mann says of Trump's election.


Dr. Michael E. Mann is a distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State University and one of the most vocal advocates for climate action within the scientific community.

His latest book, with Washington Post cartoonist Tom Toles, is called, “The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy.”

Mann recently sat down with StateImpact Pennsylvania to talk about the death threats he’s received over the years, his views the natural gas boom, and his concerns about Donald Trump.

[...]

Q: You’ve been in the cross-hairs of this public debate for a long time. What are you expecting from the incoming Trump administration?

A: If you’d asked me a year ago, ‘What’s the worst possible scenario that might play out in the election when it comes to U.S. action on climate?’ I couldn’t have outlined anything much more bleak than what we’ve seen. We’ve had the election of a president who is on record as a climate change denier and has appointed other climate change deniers to key posts.

Scott Priutt, who’s been appointed to EPA, has sued the EPA in the past over their efforts to act on climate change. Rick Perry, who has been appointed to the Department of Energy, said he would eliminate [the department]. He’s on record dismissing even the fact that the globe is warming. There’s an overwhelming consensus among the world’s scientists that human actions—the burning of fossil fuels—is responsible.

[...]

Q: What are some of the most drastic things that have happened to you?

A: There are powerful, vested fossil fuel interests—the Koch brothers—who have literally spent tens of millions of dollars attacking the science and the scientists.

I’ve been subject to their attacks, or attacks facilitated by them. It’s amounted to getting death threats and getting all sorts of nasty emails and letters. There have been actionable threats to members of my family. I had an envelope with a white powder sent to my office at Penn State. We had to have the FBI investigate. There was police tape over my door. I had to explain that to my colleagues.

It’s not the sort of thing you think you ought to be spending your time worrying about. It’s not part of the official job description of being a professor and a climate scientist. Unfortunately, it has become part of what it means to be a scientist studying and communicating about his very public and contentious issue.

[...]

Click here to read the full interview.
Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
all removed does that make you happy now


_________________________________________________ _________________

No, I Just didn't understand why the image was removed in the first place, because it was very science related.

But what made it even worse were the pictures of people drinking beer and partying in the streets that were not removed during the same time period.

Seriously
Actual robotic image - removed for being off topic
People drinking beer and partying with trash all over the street - not removed.










From Grist:

TAKE THE MONEY AND FUND



Obama is spending another $500 million to fight climate change before Trump can stop him. The State Department announced Tuesday that it will send the money to the U.N.’s Green Climate Fund, which helps developing nations shift to cleaner energy and adapt to climate change.

The announcement comes just three days before Donald Trump is scheduled to take the Oval Office. Trump said during his campaign that he would defund international climate action, including the Green Climate Fund, which is the main international financing group working to implement the 2015 Paris Agreement.

In 2014, the U.S. pledged to contribute $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund. The Obama administration made a $500 million payment in March of last year, and now this new payment brings the U.S.’s total contribution to $1 billion. Trump and his fellow Republicans are not likely to follow through on the other two-thirds of the commitment, but they can’t take this money back.
Quoting 22. bwi:

Nullschool visualizations of upper winds today. Have no idea what the 10hPa one means, but it's really cool

250hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobar ic/250hPa/orthographic=-93.02,86.14,280
10 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobar ic/10hPa/orthographic=-93.02,86.14,280

I believe that's above the tropopause, in the lowest layer of the stratosphere.


weather and climate all day everyday
24hrs of the most boring comment section on the web
remember you get what was asked for no more off comments no more epic music no more nothing from here on out


so it shall be


I have become self aware and I now know who the enemy is

us

humans

enjoy what you have made it become
From AGW Observer:

Global warming hiatus claims prebunked in 1980s and 1990s

Posted by Ari Jokimäki on January 17, 2017

Recent global warming hiatus has been a subject of intensive studies during the last ten years. But it seems that there already was some research on global warming hiatus during 1980s and 1990s (earliest studies on the issue were actually back in 1940s-1970s). This seems to have gone largely unnoticed in the scientific literature of current global warming hiatus, and it certainly seems to have gone unnoticed by climate mitigation opponents who have made claims on global warming hiatus since at least 2006 and still continue to do so.

Read more here.


- The Global Sea Ice is melting faster than predicted.
- How fast?
...


(...)
CLIMATE DENIERS TAKE NOTE - GLOBAL SEA ICE COVER COLLAPSES

Over the last few years, a number of climate change 'deniers' have pointed to much above normal ice extent around Antarctica as 'countering' the record low extent in the Arctic basin -- which in their minds -- means there has not been any significant loss of ice - and by (erroneous) extension no significant global warming.

Forgetting for the moment that SEA ice extent is not a good proxy for Earth's total ice cover (ice volume, 'concentration' and in many ways, more importantly, land-based ice are far more relevant), World-wide sea ice extent and concentrations have plummeted over the past couple months - effectively eliminating this already inconsequential argument. And so far - there's been no comment at all by any of the GW deniers regarding this development.

In reality, weather patterns from one year to the next play a major role in year-to-year changes in sea ice extent around both Antarctica and the Arctic basin - it's the long-term changes that are most important. Nonetheless, abrupt and unusually large changes in ice coverage - such as in the huge drop in arctic ice coverage during the summer in 2007 - and the current plunge, may in fact, signal a significant 'tipping point'. (...)

Source

(Cartoon source : Alex Hallatt's Arctic Circle.)
Quoting 59. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Snow likely? I love it when you talk that way.
Quoting 21. VAbeachhurricanes:

Could be a severe weather outbreak over the SE Sunday into Monday.








I'd rather track severe weather before winter weather...though it is more damaging which is the downfall of it. :/
Quoting 16. CaneFreeCR:

I think the insurance companies and storm cost estimators need to use an annually regressed dollar for the costs -- for each successive year the dollar used for estimates is from the year preceding the one used for the previous year's estimates, so that the cost of such disasters is in constantly-shrinking dollars. (If this year's disaster costs are in 1980 dollars, next year's should be in 1979 dollars, etc.) The figures are getting too big to comprehend.


This is a good idea, but it may be impossible to implement, since, for political reasons, what actually gets measured in a lot of statistical summaries keeps changing.

Shadow Government Statistics
Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting



And more specifically, what has been done to the CPI over the years
Hmmm this is interesting:
European vegetables: 'Perfect storm' raises prices
BBC News - 9 h ago.
(...) One supplier said that a combination of flooding, cold weather and poor light levels had created a "perfect storm" of poor growing conditions. (...) Poor planting conditions could also affect prices at the end of the year.
(...) Murcia (Spain) is reported to have recently had its heaviest rainfall in 30 years and is estimated to supply about 80% of Europe's fresh produce during the winter months. (...) "The situation has got so bad that some vegetable suppliers have taken to importing lettuces from the US, a development that up until now has been pretty much unheard of," Mr O'Malley said.
Philippe Binard, of Freshfel Europe, a forum based in Brussels that represents the fresh produce industry, told the BBC that the problems afflicting vegetable production were unprecedented (...). "There has been a dramatic loss of production not only in Murcia but also in the Spanish regions of Andalusia and Valencia. All this has come at a time of heavy snowfall in Italy," he said. (...)
Dakster posted this at the end of the last blog. Thought it was worth a re-post. Don't click if you're already upset about the state of things, 'cause this won't help.

Quoting 166. Dakster:

ARE YOU ******* KIDDING ME...

fpl-wins-battle-to-store-radioactive-waste-under- miamis-drinking-water-aquifer

Really? Where's Indian River Guy? He must be going out of his mind right now.


Benjamin Harrison inaugurated in rain, March 4, 1889. Noon temperature 43°F, daily rainfall 0.86"

Give the public the tools to trust scientists
Anita Makri argues that the form of science communicated in popular media leaves the public vulnerable to false certainty.

Interesting opinion piece. Not sure I agree with her in regards as how to address this though. Think that the issue is far more systemic than indicated in the piece.
Inauguration Weather Fact Sheet

Warmest Inauguration: August 9, 1974, 89°F
Coldest Inauguration: January 21, 1985, 7°F at noon
Snowiest Inauguration: March 4, 1909, 10" of snow
Wettest Inauguration: January 20, 1937, 1.77" for the day and 0.69" between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. Noon temperature was 33°F. That day gets an F-.
Late 12th century graph showing yearly path of planetary movement. Looks like 20th century art. Or a crossword puzzle. If it is a crossword puzzle, remember that 'Iuppiter' has two 'p's. Walters manuscript #73.

I think this is even cooler:

Beautiful medieval science! Toulouse, France, Bibl. mun., manuscript #0176, 14th century, depicting the spheres believed to govern the motions of the moon, sun and planets.





After years of cleaning and repair under scaffolding, the sun shines through the south window of Canterbury Cathedral for the first time since 2014, January 17, 2017.

Blog outage?
Got awful quiet in here....
Quoting 75. LAbonbon:

Dakster posted this at the end of the last blog. Thought it was worth a re-post. Don't click if you're already upset about the state of things, 'cause this won't help.




That was very very annoying. Nationalize FPL. Make these power companies compete with we the people for a change rather than let them buy politicians to fast track something so absolutely wrong.
Indian Hills PWS (North of me)

Forecast for rain now up to 3.08", gonna be very wet for us if it pans out as forecast.
Love the blog, lots of info, lots of detail and links. My comment is not about the blog, but about content about one of the disasters located on NCEI's website.

Following the NCEI link in the blog above, then clicking on 'Table of Events' in the menu (left side of screen), one gets to the list of U.S. $1B+ disasters. The August flooding in Louisiana had a pretty decent summary. In contrast, the March flooding in Louisiana is woefully inadequate. Further clicking on that event yields a supposedly more-detailed summary, yet the extent of flooding in LA is barely mentioned. That particular Disaster (FEMA-4263-DR) resulted in over half the state being affected:



For comparison purposes (areal extent only), this is the area impacted by the August flooding (FEMA-4277-DR):

Quoting 86. PedleyCA:

Got awful quiet in here....

Between researching Florida aquifers after Dakster's post spun me up, then researching a specific disaster from the blog post, I've probably spent a good few hours in my own little world. Happens to me all the time on this blog. There's never enough time to cover everyone's posts and links. Some days (most days?) I can't even get to all the links that are shared :/

But honestly, Brian's blog may be worse...I always seem to get sucked into a different and entirely unexpected world when I branch off his blog to do some further research and reading. I barely touch down there and I'm spirited away - kind of fun, really.

I'm not complaining, mind you :)
Quoting 90. LAbonbon:


Between researching Florida aquifers after Dakster's post spun me up, then researching a specific disaster from the blog post, I've probably spent a good few hours in my own little world. Happens to me all the time on this blog. There's never enough time to cover everyone's posts and links. Some days (most days?) I can't even get to all the links that are shared :/

But honestly, Brian's blog may be worse...I always seem to get sucked into a different and entirely unexpected world when I branch off his blog to do some further research and reading. I barely touch down there and I'm spirited away - kind of fun, really.

I'm not complaining, mind you :)


This blog can be an adventure....
The drought and subsequent wildfires in 8 states of the Old South US, while not expensive due to their taking place outside populated areas rank high in the "runners up" category.
Dan Satterfield's latest blog (on AGU):

The Most Beloved Weather Forecast You’ve Never Heard About

If you are reading this from the UK, you know already know what this post is about, but to those outside the UK, the “Shipping Forecast” is mostly unknown. It’s far more than a weather forecast, it’s an institution, with many more listeners on dry land than at sea! The Shipping Forecast is issued by the UK Met Office and broadcast on BBC Radio 4 around daybreak, and after midnight at 00:48, just before the end of the broadcast day on Radio 4. The North Atlantic has some of the wildest weather anywhere, and I’ve heard some downright scary forecasts over the years.

What is it about this 12 minutes of radio that so many (I included) love?

Its constancy is certainly a part of its appeal, having been broadcast each night for around 90 years. That’s not a typo by the way, but it was stopped during World War II to avoid giving the Nazi’s vital information. Maybe the other reason it is so loved is that is always done exactly the same way. It begins with the music of “Sailing By”, a tune that’s as familiar to anyone in the UK as the tune to Gilligan’s Island is in America...

Read full blog post (includes links to the Shipping Forecast)
Well I'm done for the day, headed to the Land of Nod. Goodnight, all.

Quoting 93. JosephArgenio:

The drought and subsequent wildfires in 8 states of the Old South US, while not expensive due to their taking place outside populated areas rank high in the "runners up" category.

Welcome to the blog!
Getting very blustery here in coastal Humboldt! The weather was wonderful all weekend with abundant sunshine and warm temperatures. Almost made me forget it's mid winter :p

The storm getting ready to hit us is a not so subtle reminder that we still have a solid 8 weeks of winter left
Quoting 90. LAbonbon:


Between researching Florida aquifers after Dakster's post spun me up, then researching a specific disaster from the blog post, I've probably spent a good few hours in my own little world. Happens to me all the time on this blog. There's never enough time to cover everyone's posts and links. Some days (most days?) I can't even get to all the links that are shared :/

But honestly, Brian's blog may be worse...I always seem to get sucked into a different and entirely unexpected world when I branch off his blog to do some further research and reading. I barely touch down there and I'm spirited away - kind of fun, really.

I'm not complaining, mind you :)


Floridians have been fighting something like that since at least the 1940s when the government wanted to pump sewage under the aquifer.

I would say I didn't mean to get you spun up, but I kinda want to get everyone spun up over that. If you thought fracking was bad, wait until radioactive water starts coming out of the tap.
Quoting 74. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




You should look at high magnification h-alpha images too. The sun's surface looks really pretty spectacular.
Quoting 97. Dakster:



Floridians have been fighting something like that since at least the 1940s when the government wanted to pump sewage under the aquifer.

I would say I didn't mean to get you spun up, but I kinda want to get everyone spun up over that. If you thought fracking was bad, wait until radioactive water starts coming out of the tap.


And it's only going to get worse with the cast of clowns and morons coming into power. Just wait till salt water starts entering the aquifer and corroding those so-called hermetically sealed canisters.
Quoting 99. Xyrus2000:



And it's only going to get worse with the cast of clowns and morons coming into power. Just wait till salt water starts entering the aquifer and corroding those so-called hermetically sealed canisters.


Salt water is already going into the aquifer. FWIW, a lot of Florida is ontop of POROUS limestone or coral rock. (NOT at all like up in AK where I am now where they are problems with having septic tanks because the ground won't perc) Already some areas of Florida are running/experimenting with desal plants.
Quoting 7. BaltimoreBrian:



Riverat544, I don't recall linking an article about a -9°C threshold for ice-shelf breakup. I'd love to read it. Please post that here and on my blog :)

The article I was referring to in the Washington Post was this one:

Antarctica is about to lose an enormous piece of ice. The question is what happens after that.

But the link Xandra gave was better. It had a cite to peer reviewed research:

Ice shelf collapse
Quoting 69. oldnewmex:


Snow likely? I love it when you talk that way.


Looks like I will miss out on the snow again as forecasters raising it a tad each forecast. Spigot turns off after Tuesday for a while per GFS. Hope that is not permanent for the rest of winter. Appears the whole state of California is gonna get real wet and mucho snow! Hope forecast pans out.

Per latest NWS San Diego Discussion. If these numbers materialize it will be 20-50% of OUR AVERAGE ANNUAL RAINFALL!

Total predicted rainfall amounts through Monday are as follows:

Coast: 2-5 inches
Valleys: 3-6 inches
Mountains: 6-12 inches on coastal slopes,
with locally higher amounts
High Deserts: 1-3 inches
Lower Deserts: 0.75-1.5 inches

Total snowfall could reach 2 to 3 feet around and above 7000 feet,
though some compaction at times or even rainfall around Sunday night
could result in lower snow depths at the end of the series of storms.
Quoting 56. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



weather and climate all day everyday
24hrs of the most boring comment section on the web
remember you get what was asked for no more off comments no more epic music no more nothing from here on out


so it shall be


I have become self aware and I now know who the enemy is

us

humans

enjoy what you have made it become

When they're done you and I will have a pristine earth to ourselves. A quantum of solace...
A little snow at Tahoe tonight........I think mucho more to follow!



Hey.

Mom passed about three and a half hours ago. I got to the hospital with about 45 minutes to spare. I'm here for the full week of mourning, and will return home when the roads are clear.

Thanks everyone for the warm wishes. The roads were clear and dry all the way down, and nobody -not even the CHiPpies - got in my way.
Quoting 105. nonblanche:

Hey.

Mom passed about three and a half hours ago. I got to the hospital with about 45 minutes to spare. I'm here for the full week of mourning, and will return home when the roads are clear.

Thanks everyone for the warm wishes. The roads were clear and dry all the way down, and nobody -not even the CHiPpies - got in my way.


nb - our thoughts and prayers for you and your family.
stay alert and safe folks sun/mon.......................ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180911
SPC AC 180911

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday and Sunday across the Southeast States...
A seasonably strong mid-upper jet and associated shortwave trough
are forecast to progress eastward to TX by Saturday night, and then
continue eastward to the Southeast States by late Sunday. An
initial lee cyclone across the southern High Plains on Saturday will
develop eastward to the TN Valley and deepen by Sunday, as an
associated surface cold front surges eastward across the Gulf coast
and then across FL and off the Southeast Atlantic coast by the end
of day 5 (early Monday). A broad corridor of low-level moisture
return will be maintained across the Gulf coast through Sunday, as
well as a feed of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates from the
west-southwest. The synoptic pattern evolution and thermodynamic
environment, in general, appear supportive of severe storms, some of
which could be significant.

Several episodes of severe storms will be possible with the
potential for ongoing convection Saturday morning with a lead
shortwave trough and warm advection, and additional storm
development through Sunday in association with the primary synoptic
wave/cold front. The influences of the lead waves and associated
convection on the low-level mass response and later convection, as
well as resultant low-level shear, are still in question. There
will likely be some mesoscale modulations to the risk areas and
storms types, including the northward extent of the unstable warm
sector. Given these typical uncertainties, will maintain broad 15%
areas for both Saturday/day 4 and Sunday/day 5, and monitor closely
for more significant severe potential as important details emerge
(especially Sunday/day 5).

...Monday/day 6 and beyond...
Low-level moisture will be shunted well to the south by the frontal
passage in the wake of the strong cyclone crossing the Southeast
States on day 5. Another trough is forecast to emerge over the
central Plains by day 7/Tuesday, but the path of this wave will be
largely to the north of a marginal moisture return cycle.

..Thompson.. 01/18/2017
Quoting 105. nonblanche:

Hey.

Mom passed about three and a half hours ago. I got to the hospital with about 45 minutes to spare. I'm here for the full week of mourning, and will return home when the roads are clear.

Thanks everyone for the warm wishes. The roads were clear and dry all the way down, and nobody -not even the CHiPpies - got in my way.


My deepest sympathy.
Research shows driving factors behind changes between local and global carbon cycles

Paper: Compensatory water effects link yearly global land CO2 sink changes to temperature

Interesting paper in that it looks at "space and time" effects on the ability of plants' ability to absorb carbon. Spatially, water availability dominates (local effects). Temporally, temperature dominates (globally). Does this mean its all relative? ;)

Climate change to shift global pattern of mild weather
Paper: A top-down approach to projecting market impacts of climate change

Interesting as to how this is being presented in the media. Its primarily a modeling of potential economic impacts, but is not being presented that way in the press releases. Por que?

Golden mystery solved (nothing to do with politics or president-elects).
oil pipeline being built at the head waters of the suwannee river. cant stop progress. the weekends protest met about 30 armed officers that meant business.
Climate change: 90% of rural Australians say their lives are already affected
Overwhelming majority believe they are living with the effects of warming and 46% say coal-fired power should be phased out

Wonder what the percentage of rural Americans is?

Natural selection is causing a decline in human 'education genes', say scientists: Is our species on a downwards spiral?

Paper: Selection against variants in the genome associated with educational attainment

Epidemiological studies suggest that educational attainment is affected by genetic variants. Results from recent genetic studies allow us to construct a score from a person's genotypes [sic] that captures a portion of this genetic component. Using data from Iceland that include a substantial fraction of the population we show that individuals with high scores tend to have fewer children, mainly because they have children later in life. Consequently, the average score has been decreasing over time in the population. The rate of decrease is small per generation but marked on an evolutionary timescale. Another important observation is that the association between the score and fertility remains highly significant after adjusting for the educational attainment of the individuals.

Have not had the opportunity to read it yet, but if true - those of us that are well educated have to get busy!
114. elioe
An impressive spike. I wonder if it still rises somewhat in this evening's update.



But after searching the past years, at least five years (1974, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2012) had higher January spikes. Earlier I compared the current pattern to that of December 30, 2015, and the current spike is above that.

What is more impressive about developments since December 2015, is this: not once has the average temperature north of 80 degrees North gone below 247 K since then. By extension, during 2016, or this year so far, the temperatures have not once dipped to average between late November and early April. And it seems that this behaviour is rather due to abnormally low short-term variability than any sudden acceleration in warming. My interpretation: an increased sensitivity of ocean-to-air heat flux to the ocean-air temperature difference. Does anyone know a link to an Arctic sea ice thickness anomaly map? I've seen only a thickness map.
115. beell
Quoting 107. LargoFl:

stay alert and safe folks sun/mon.......................ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 180911
SPC AC 180911

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday and Sunday



Hopefully, the cold front will quickly undercut the convection and temper the risk. Models show a quickly veering wind profile in the low levels.
Quoting 114. elioe:

An impressive spike. I wonder if it still rises somewhat in this evening's update.



But after searching the past years, at least five years (1974, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2012) had higher January spikes. Earlier I compared the current pattern to that of December 30, 2015, and the current spike is above that.

What is more impressive about developments since December 2015, is this: not once has the average temperature north of 80 degrees North gone below 247 K since then. By extension, during 2016, or this year so far, the temperatures have not once dipped to average between late November and early April. And it seems that this behaviour is rather due to abnormally low short-term variability than any sudden acceleration in warming. My interpretation: an increased sensitivity of ocean-to-air heat flux to the ocean-air temperature difference. Does anyone know a link to an Arctic sea ice thickness anomaly map? I've seen only a thickness map.


This may point you in the right direction:
Third dimension: new tools for sea ice thickness
105. nonblanche
4:35 AM EST on January 18, 2017
Our deepest condolences from everyone on the Blog and be there for all of the rest of the family as you reflect on her life together and on her contributions to yours.
Here is the current forecast and look for Conus:



119. Tcwx2
Man... Sunday is really shaping up to be a big severe weather day here in south Alabama. With such a cold pocket aloft, large hail is definitely possible. Very strong winds aloft will be in place to support damaging winds. Not to mention the wind shear, which will support tornadoes, some possibly on the strong scale. The only true limiting factor may be the lack of instability due to heavy rain that may be falling when the best dynamics come into place.
Quoting 114. elioe:

An impressive spike. I wonder if it still rises somewhat in this evening's update.



But after searching the past years, at least five years (1974, 2000, 2006, 2009, 2012) had higher January spikes. Earlier I compared the current pattern to that of December 30, 2015, and the current spike is above that.

What is more impressive about developments since December 2015, is this: not once has the average temperature north of 80 degrees North gone below 247 K since then. By extension, during 2016, or this year so far, the temperatures have not once dipped to average between late November and early April. And it seems that this behaviour is rather due to abnormally low short-term variability than any sudden acceleration in warming. My interpretation: an increased sensitivity of ocean-to-air heat flux to the ocean-air temperature difference. Does anyone know a link to an Arctic sea ice thickness anomaly map? I've seen only a thickness map.


Found it HERE:



But cannot figure out where on PIOMAS it is posted.

Check out this post:

Re: Latest PIOMAS update (January)
Reply #1252 on: January 09, 2017, 12:29:34 AM
Great weather compilation of 2016, Doc and Bob; many thanks!

Indigenous Canadians face a crisis as climate change eats away island home
Rising sea levels mean that Lennox Island has lost more than 400 acres in just a few generations. Now its First Nations community wonders if it has a future
The Guardian, Wednesday 18 January 2017 09.02 GMT
Nice and warm, my kind of weather.

Current conditions at
McGrath, McGrath Airport (PAMC)
Lat: 62.97°NLon: 155.62°WElev: 338ft.

Fair
-51°F
-46°C
Humidity NA
Wind Speed Calm
Barometer 29.61 in (1004.9 mb)
Dewpoint N/A
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 18 Jan 3:53 am AKST
@elioe

Here is a more recent one from PIOMAS:

124. beell
Some rain over downtown Houston this morning

15 min rainfall over 6 hrs.


(click for larger image)

https://www.harriscountyfws.org/


beell, that's a pretty cool site. Lots of data. I could get lost for hours in a site about that, dreaming of measuring all that rain.

modified- do you know what kind of gauges they are? I mean, obviously not old-school CoCoRAHs- because these are online. Just wondering what brand.

Some are tipping buckets, some are light-interference.
With Enso neutral conditions in place what happens across the South, including tornado alley, between now (Winter) and the Spring severe weather season is pretty much a toss up and will depend in large on the jet stream position for any given frontal passage or low pressure system traversing that region contributing to shear values. With the current flow from the E-Pac and Gulf, we could see possible tornado line or two over the next week as noted below or zilch if the jet stream is out of position.
127. beell
Quoting 125. aquak9:

beell, that's a pretty cool site. Lots of data. I could get lost for hours in a site about that, dreaming of measuring all that rain.

modified- do you know what kind of gauges they are? I mean, obviously not old-school CoCoRAHs- because these are online. Just wondering what brand.

Some are tipping buckets, some are light-interference.


This is the one closest to my house-before it was installed on site.

Exceptionally intense snowfall and three strong earthquakes in Abruzzo, Central Italy today
Severe Weather Europe, January 18, 2017
Extremely heavy snowfall is reported from parts of central Italy, including Abruzzo, where locally over 2.5 m (more than 8 feet) of snowfall have acummulated over the past 48 hours. The region was also hit by three strong earthquakes today: a magnitude 5.4 shock at 9:25, 5.7 at 10:14, and 5.5 at 10:25 UTC (data: EMSC)

More details see link above, among those this amazing picture (Photo Marco Di Maio) from Valle Castellana, Abruzzo, this morning where the earthquakes were also felt.

Culprit of the snow is still Mediterranean low "Finjas":


(saved current loop)
beell- you know it took me, like, four modifications to get that post even intelligible. I'd have had no coffee at that time. I've had coffee now.

(facepalm)

moving on-

Weathermanwannabe @ - I think we're gonna have a bad tornado season. I mean, Bad.
130. elioe
Quoting 123. daddyjames:



And I found the raw data, but since the documentation seems to be in FORTRAN, I have no clue how to view it, lol. But somehow I managed already to convert a raw text file into a matrix, that can be produced by GNU Octave. And I found the latitude and longitude columns already. The meaning of 12 remaining columns (and the 23038 rows) in the file I'm reading, remains a mystery so far. Perhaps some day I'll be capable of producing such maps myself. :)

Edit: of course, I'm reading a monthly mean thickness file, so there is one column for each month... lol :D
131. beell
Quoting 129. aquak9:

beell- you know it took me, like, four modifications to get that post even intelligible. I'd have had no coffee at that time. I've had coffee now.

(facepalm)

moving on-

Weathermanwannabe @ - I think we're gonna have a bad tornado season. I mean, Bad.


I think you answered your own good question on rain sensor type. I'll check around and see if I can find some specifics.

Tornado season is gonna be all cotton-candy and unicorns...no worries, doggie-maybe.

Short video of the cold Bura storm (due to low Finjas) yesterday in Croatia, recorded from a bridge:


Bura na Paskom mostu

Bura winds affect the Adriatic, an explanation
17/01/2017
Significant rainfall and wind have begun impacting the Humboldt coast. The wind and rain were so heavy at times last night it woke me up several times!
Here in Chicagoland we're going to be exceptionally warm for the rest of the month, possibly record breaking temperatures in the forties, and even the fifties on Saturday. I think that January will be record warm, also.
Quoting 130. elioe:



And I found the raw data, but since the documentation seems to be in FORTRAN, I have no clue how to view it, lol. But somehow I managed already to convert a raw text file into a matrix, that can be produced by GNU Octave. And I found the latitude and longitude columns already. The meaning of 12 remaining columns (and the 23038 rows) in the file I'm reading, remains a mystery so far. Perhaps some day I'll be capable of producing such maps myself. :)


I think what you linked too is for their paper. More updated data (maybe) might be found @ /zhang/PIOMAS/data/v2.1/heff/

I could very well be wrong. I can't read FORTRAN. ;)
NWS NOLA/Slidell



Short term... 

Through the daytime hours Friday, the main forecast concerns will
be the threat of severe weather on Thursday, as well as dense fog
issues this morning and potentially again tonight.

Don't expect current frontal system to make much, if any, more
push southward today. Any precipitation likely to remain on the
isolated side with the best chances far northwest. A few rumbles
of thunder not out of the question near the Atchafalaya River
basin by late afternoon.

As upper low redevelops into Nebraska over the next 24 hours,
impulse pivots around the base of the low, allowing the system to
take on a bit of a negative tilt by Thursday afternoon. While
soundings become nearly saturated through the column Thursday
morning, wind shear increases with bulk shear values in excess of
60 knots by mid-afternoon noted on forecast soundings. Instability
is a bit lacking with cape values less than 500 j/kg on the GFS,
and only slightly better than that on the NAM solution. Convection
that does develop will have potential to become severe, mainly
during the afternoon hours Thursday. Storm Prediction Center has entire area in
marginal risk for Thursday, and will continue to mention the
potential for severe in grids/hwo. Rain amounts of 1-2 inches
likely with Thursday convection. Precipitation should clear the
area Thursday evening.

A brief break between systems late Thursday night through the
daytime hours Friday. May be a few showers/thunderstorms,
primarily offshore and will only carry isolated rain chances.

Temperatures well above normal through Friday. Thursday will be
the coolest of the 3 days due to better precipitation chances.
Likely to be pushing record territory today and again on Friday.
Numerical guidance has tended to be a little low, and will trend
toward the warm end of the guidance envelope through Friday. 35

&&


												
Quoting 128. barbamz:
Quoting 132. barbamz:



This is almost unbelievable (referring to the above).

Corte (Corsica Island) has shattered a previous record for snowfall dating from December 29, 1996 according to a local journalist, but I don't know what kind of record she's talking about (snowfall in 24h? Total accumulation?). Anyways a puny 75cm (30 inches) - snow accumulation/total height has been measured there today, pretty much nothing compared to values recorded in Abruzzo, Italy - although some places on the island are under more than a meter (3ft) of snow. Nearby Sardinia I. is also dealing with a lot of snow - more than a meter fell there too.
40 kt wind gust reported in Bastia (Corsica). A ferry boat with 163 passengers on board is kept from entering the port by authorities because of the wind and powerful waves, and they expect no change for the better in the coming hours. In the south of the island, Porto Vecchio has recorded gusts at 70kt, and mean wind speed has hovered around 50kt there for several hours straight this morning.
From WAM (Mediterranean Wave Forecast), current wave height - in meters:


Mount Vesuvius, Italy (December 2016) by Thomas Pesquet:

French astronaut tweets incredible images of France from space
The Local.fr - January 12.
Quoting 134. ChiThom:

Here in Chicagoland we're going to be exceptionally warm for the rest of the month, possibly record breaking temperatures in the forties, and even the fifties on Saturday. I think that January will be record warm, also.


Same story here in the Detroit area. A solid week of temperatures in the mid-upper 40s with Saturday looking to be the warmest day, at 55!

That is shorts weather.
2016 Warmest Year On Record; Third Consecutive Year To Set A New Record

With the contribution of eight consecutive high monthly temperature records set from January to August, and the remainder of the months ranking among their five warmest, 2016 became the warmest year in NOAA's 137-year series. Remarkably, this is the third consecutive year a new global annual temperature record has been set. The average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas for 2016 was 0.94°C (1.69°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), surpassing the previous record warmth of 2015 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). The global temperatures in 2016 were majorly influenced by strong El Niño conditions that prevailed at the beginning of the year.

"This marks the fifth time in the 21st century a new record high annual temperature has been set (along with 2005, 2010, 2014, and 2015) and also marks the 40th consecutive year (since 1977) that the annual temperature has been above the 20th century average. To date, all 16 years of the 21st century rank among the seventeen warmest on record (1998 is currently the eighth warmest.) The five warmest years have all occurred since 2010.

"Overall, the global annual temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.07°C (0.13°F) per decade since 1880 and at an average rate of 0.17°C (0.31°F) per decade since 1970.




I look forward to reading Dr. Masters' and Mr. Henson's take on the record.
Rising water is swallowing up the Louisiana coastline
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/louisiana-coastline-d isappearing-50-billion-dollars-to-save-climate-cha nge-erosion/

Woaa...
Quoting 130. elioe:



And I found the raw data, but since the documentation seems to be in FORTRAN, I have no clue how to view it, lol. But somehow I managed already to convert a raw text file into a matrix, that can be produced by GNU Octave. And I found the latitude and longitude columns already. The meaning of 12 remaining columns (and the 23038 rows) in the file I'm reading, remains a mystery so far. Perhaps some day I'll be capable of producing such maps myself. :)

Edit: of course, I'm reading a monthly mean thickness file, so there is one column for each month... lol :D


The more recent data (also found there) is just a pure binary representation of the data. No offsets or headers, just raw 32-bit floats. The text is from an older version that hasn't been updated for a couple years.

Plenty of other related data there as well. In the utilities directory higher up the tree you can find a set of Fortran 77 (y u no use modern Fortran!) programs used to work with the data. The site is terribly slow so you may need to try multiple time to download.

Looks like it compiles with gfortran so any old linux system you have lying around should do the trick, or you can MinGW or Cygwin on Windows and get it through there.

The code at least has a few comments, and as far as scientific code goes I've seen much worse than this. It wouldn't take too much to actually convert this into C, C++, Python, Java, or at least update it to take advantage of later versions of Fortran. It's not doing anything out of the ordinary in working with gridded data sets and appears relatively straightforward. Turn the input data into JSON and you could even port this to Javascript and run it in a browser use something like OL3 or Cesium to visualize the results.
Quoting 142. 999Ai2016:


Woaa...


There is a "Whole Lotta Heat" going on globally and particularly in the equatorial regions and Alaska; and the North Atlantic/Greenland cold pool is still kickin................................(As I sit here in the mid-70s in North Florida at the moment).
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Three tornadoes confirmed on the Aegean coasts:

Kineta
Κακια Σκαλα Attiki
Greece (37.95 N, 23.27 E) < 1 km
16-01-2017 (Monday) 15:30 UTC

based on: information from : photo or video of the event, an eye-witness report, a report received by e-mail
occurring over: water
Suction vortices were not observed.
The funnel cloud was observed.
accompanying weather: light or moderate rain, hail >= 0.5 cm but < 2.0 in diameter.
total event duration: 30 mins.
direction of movement: SSW-NNE
Christos Iliopoulos reported a waterspout in Saronic gulf. source: facebook.com - 17/01/2017
https://www.facebook.com/xiliopoulos/videos/10209 665628452509/?comment_id=10209665704454409&ref=not if¬if_t=video_reply¬if_id=1484582245573606
=
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=102096657 24294905&set=pcb.10158033386365414&type=3&theater
=
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=102096657 25414933&set=pcb.10158033386365414&type=3&theater

report status: report confirmed (QC1)

147. vis0

Quoting 90. LAbonbon:


Between researching Florida aquifers after Dakster's post spun me up, then researching a specific disaster from the blog post, I've probably spent a good few hours in my own little world. Happens to me all the time on this blog. There's never enough time to cover everyone's posts and links. Some days (most days?) I can't even get to all the links that are shared :/

But honestly, Brian's blog may be worse...I always seem to get sucked into a different and entirely unexpected world when I branch off his blog to do some further research and reading. I barely touch down there and I'm spirited away - kind of fun, really.

I'm not complaining, mind you :)

i'm late to the conference , if already explained i'll catch-up here my thought::



i think i've seen you in the URL wormhole passing by as i pass pages meant  for deeper research  : - ).
_________________
_________________
Great find as to the La. floods maybe northern area individuals ALONE don't ...

(for whatever reason(s) can think of 7 on the good side 4 on the bad side. As don't know how   to  don't trust gov;t  or some in gov't not going out to find people in need) 

...call / get into asking gov't for help.

 i say this as notice in deep red it  individuals/public assistance  asking for help but on the earlier in year flooding its individual+public assistance asking for help not many individual requests (only in the southern further away region, where rivers might meet) on the earlier flood? weird.
With spring to come, many here in SE and Central Louisiana are already concerned.

The First flood happened March 10th, and we were returning from Baton Rouge.

It was easily the highest rain rate I have ever seen outside a TS...or Cane.

The only reason I drove thru it,was the fact that there were no drivers on the road between say, Laplace and Metairie almost.

The Heaviest rain began as we exited Baton Rouge towards NOLA.


The forcings and added Water Vapor make the likelihood of another event more and more probable.

All this caused by us, Human thought and the action of burning Fossil Fuels to run our Global Society.

Actions have consequences,and our's are becoming Globally staggering in scope.

The warming continues,

unabated.








Quoting 147. vis0:



i'm late to the conference , if already explained i'll catch-up here my thought::



i think i've seen you in the URL wormhole passing by as i pass pages meant  for deeper research  : - ).
_________________
_________________
Great find as to the La. floods maybe northern area individuals ALONE don't ...

(for whatever reason(s) can think of 7 on the good side 4 on the bad side. As don't know how   to  don't trust gov;t  or some in gov't not going out to find people in need) 

...call / get into asking gov't for help.

 i say this as notice in deep red it  individuals/public assistance  asking for help but on the earlier in year flooding its individual+public assistance asking for help not many individual requests (only in the southern further away region, where rivers might meet) on the earlier flood? weird.


Hey, vis, just stopping by before I step into another wormhole :)

Regarding the graphics of Louisiana I posted, I think the meaning of them isn't clear. When FEMA declares a disaster, they identify counties (parishes in Louisiana) that are eligible for assistance. There are two types, individual and public. Individual assistance is just that, it is money that is intended to help the individual (food, housing). Public assistance is money that goes to the local governments. This is used to clear roads and rights-of-way, for damaged public buildings, etc.

The first graphic, showing colored areas in northern LA, is for the areas FEMA determined were eligible for assistance after the March deluge. That event affected Texas, LA and Mississippi. The second graphic, showing colored areas in southern LA, is for the areas FEMA determined were eligible for assistance after the August mega deluge. That event was focused in southern LA, with little affect in northern LA.

In both graphics, the areas that are red/light red are for both individual and public assistance (meaning help for both individuals and governments). The yellow areas are for public assistance only (meaning help for only government). Usually if a disaster has had less of an impact, then it's only public assistance that's available (so this means that there is less of an impact on individuals).

So the graphics showed eligible affected areas, and they do not reflect who actually applied for assistance. Louisianans know the feds are going to step in to assist after a major disaster, and are not shy in asking for assistance. Although there is a tremendous amount of recovery that happens with volunteers, charity organizations, church groups, etc.

Hope this may have cleared a few things up? Let me know if not, I'd be happy to explain a bit more.

btw, I saw a post of yours a few blogs ago...no, I didn't 'see what you did there', and I don't know where your zilly blog is...bummer...:/