WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Top Ten Weather Events of 2016: #1 is No Surprise; #2 Will Surprise You

By: Jeff Masters 2:27 AM GMT on January 05, 2017

The top weather story of 2016: Earth had its warmest year on record (again!) While the final numbers are not officially tabulated, 2016 appears certain to be the warmest year in every major dataset scientists use to track global warmth. The previous warmest year on record for Earth’s surface was set in 2015, which in turn broke the record set in 2014. The 3-year string of warmest years on record is the first time such an event has happened since record keeping began in 1880. One official record has already been announced: Earth’s warmest year in the 38-year satellite-measured lower atmosphere temperature record was 2016, beating a record that had stood since 1998, according to the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH.)

The first seven months of 2016 all set new monthly records for global heat in the NOAA database, giving the planet an unprecedented streak of fifteen consecutive record-warm months. February 2016 had the warmest departure from average of any month in recorded history, and July 2016 was the warmest month in recorded history in absolute terms. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2016’s global temperatures were approximately 1.2°C above pre-industrial levels. About 0.2°C of this warming was due to the strong El Niño event that ended in May 2016, and the remainder was due to the long-term warming of the planet from human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide. Assuming that all nations who agreed to the Paris Climate Accord in 2015 fulfill their pledges, Earth is on track to see 2.3°C of warming over pre-industrial levels by 2050. This is above the “dangerous” 2°C level of warming considered likely to greatly increase the risk of hunger, thirst, disease, refugees, and war.


Figure 1. Departure of the global surface temperature from average for the period January - November, for all years from 1880 to 2016. The year 2016 will easily beat 2015 as the warmest year on record. Image credit: NOAA.

2) Air Pollution in 2016 Likely Killed Over 5 Million and Cost Over $5 Trillion Globally
The deadliest and costliest weather events of 2016 were very likely high pressure systems with light winds and stagnant air that led to lethal build-ups of dangerous air pollutants in Asia. One such event, a severe air pollution episode being called The Great Smog of Delhi, hit the most polluted major city in the world—New Delhi, India—on November 1 - 9, 2016. On November 7, Delhi’s levels of the deadliest air pollutant—fine particulate matter (PM 2.5)—hit 999 micrograms per cubic meter, which is 40 times higher than the World Health Organization guideline of 25 micrograms per cubic meter for a 24-hour period. Sustained breathing of air pollution at these levels is like smoking more than two packs of cigarettes per day.


Figure 2. Traffic moving slowly under thick smog at ITO on November 4, 2016 in New Delhi, India. It was the worst smog in Delhi in 17 years. (Photo by Raj K Raj/Hindustan Times via Getty Images)

The worst air pollution episode of 2016 in China occurred the week of December 19, when levels of fine particle pollution in Shijiazhuang, capital of northern Hebei province, hit 1,000 micrograms per cubic meter—40 times the WHO standard. According to mashable.com, over 200 flights were cancelled in Beijing due to smog that week, schools and factories were ordered shut, and 23 cities declared smog red alerts. Too often, we hear about the costs of air pollution regulations, but nothing on the savings in lives and money that result from breathing clean air. Part of the problem is that quantifying the deaths and damage due to air pollution episodes is difficult. However, there are over 2,000 peer-reviewed scientific studies linking air pollution to "premature deaths”—mortality caused by air pollution that is only partly attributable to breathing bad air, but that would not have occurred otherwise. The World Bank estimated in 2016 that premature deaths due to air pollution in 2013 (the most recent year statistics were available) were 5.5 million people, at a cost of over $5 trillion. The total costs to countries in East and South Asia related to air pollution mortality were about 7.5 percent of GDP, they estimated. Additional health care costs to people who did not die were not considered, and neither was pollution damage done to agriculture. Computer modeling by Stanford professor Mark Jacobson in 2016 predicted that the total cost of air pollution globally under a business-as-usual emissions path will reach $23 trillion per year (7.6% of global GDP) by 2050.


Figure 3. Students took exams in an outdoor playground on December 19, 2016 in heavy smog at Linzhou, Anyang, in Central China's Henan Province. The fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) levels were in excess of 500 micrograms per cubic meter, which is 20 times higher than the World Health Organization guideline of 25 micrograms per cubic meter for a 24-hour period. The principal of the school was suspended after a public outcry. Image credit: An irate Linqi resident.

3) Longest Global Coral Bleaching Event on Record Devastates Great Barrier Reef
Earth’s third global coral bleaching event on record began in mid-2014, according to NOAA, and by mid-2016 had become the longest on record. The beaching event hit Australia’s Great Barrier Reef particularly hard, causing its greatest coral die-off ever observed. About two-thirds of the shallow-water coral on the reef’s previously pristine, 430-mile northern stretch died. The only thing that saved the southern portion of the 1,400-mile long reef was the passage of Tropical Cyclone Winston, which churned up the waters and cooled water temperatures by up to 3°C. The bleaching event was due to widespread ocean warming related to long-term climate change, as well as regional warmings triggered by a strong El Niño that began in early 2015. The prolonged nature of the bleaching event caused multiple years of damage during seasonal peaks in upper-ocean temperature, giving the reefs less time to recover, and the bleaching event is expected to continue into April of 2017, according to the latest four-month forecast from NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch. The alert level is lower in 2017 than it was in 2015 and 2016, though, thanks to the modest cooling of ocean waters in the Pacific due to the demise of the record-strength El Niño that had been in place. However, Dr. Mark Eakin, coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch, said that “so many corals are pre-stressed that this could be enough to push more over the edge.”


Figure 4. Damage to the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 (left) as compiled by the Australian Government Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, along with an image of bleached leather corals (right.) Only 7% of the reef escaped bleaching, and huge swaths of coral died. The Great Barrier Reef is the world’s largest living structure, and the only one visible from space. It contains more biodiversity than all of Europe combined, with 1,625 species of fish, 3,000 species of mollusk, 450 species of coral, 220 species of birds and 30 species of whales and dolphins. Image credit: Sirachai Arunrugstichai/Getty Images.

4) Drought Losses Low in the U.S., but Disturbingly High Globally
For the first year since 2011, losses from the multi-year drought in California in 2016 did not exceed $1 billion. There were no billion-dollar drought disasters in the United States in 2016, the first time that has occurred since 2010. However, drought losses globally were at least $17.6 billion in 2016, according to the November 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This ranked as the third highest economic loss due to drought in the past ten years, continuing a disturbing trend towards higher drought losses in recent years. Here is Aon Benfiled's list of drought damages globally since 2006:

2006: $11.0 billion
2007: $5.9 billion
2008: $3.7 billion
2009: $6.8 billion
2010: $9.0 billion
2011: $16.3 billion
2012: $34.8 billion
2013: $30.7 billion
2014: $13.7 billion
2015: $14.4 billion
2016: $17.6 billion

The trend towards higher drought losses in recent years is concerning, since drought is the greatest threat we face from climate change. I predict that an extreme global warming-amplified drought is likely to cause a Great Climate Disruption to civilization sometime in the next 40 years. As I wrote in my April 2016 post, Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization, I predict that the odds of climate change-amplified extreme weather events hitting multiple bread baskets where the majority of the world’s food supply is grown will increase to about a 2% chance per year by the middle of this century. This means it is likely that sometime in the next 40 years we will see a significant disruption of the global economy, intense political turmoil, war and the threat of mass famine due to extreme weather, with a global warming-amplified drought likely being the key catalyst. If you think modern civilization cannot collapse due to drought, history suggests otherwise: see my March 2016 post, Ten Civilizations or Nations That Collapsed From Drought.


Figure 5. Villagers throw containers attached to ropes into a well to collect their daily supply of potable water after a tanker made its daily delivery at Shahapur, India, on May 13, 2016. El Niño brought a second consecutive year of deficient monsoon rains in India during 2015. The resulting severe drought during the first half of 2016 cost India $5 billion and left 330 million people—a quarter of the population—with acute shortages of water. Image credit: INDRANIL MUKHERJEE/AFP/Getty Images

5) China’s $28 Billion Yangtze River Flooding: Most Expensive Disaster of 2016
Earth's official most expensive weather-related disaster of 2016—and the third most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disaster in world history—was the disastrous summer flooding in China’s Yangtze River basin. Torrential rains began in mid-May along the Mei-yu (or baiu) front, a semi-permanent feature that extends from eastern China across Taiwan into the Pacific south of Japan, associated with the southwest monsoon that pushes northward each spring and summer. A number of studies have found that the Mei-yu rainfall tends to be particularly heavy in the summer following an El Niño event, as occurred in 2016--and occurred in 1998, the only year to experience a more damaging flood in China. Heavier Mei-yu rains are expected in a warming climate; in the 2015 book “The Monsoons and Climate Change: Observations and Modeling,” Hirokazu Endo (MRI) and Akio Kitoh (University of Tsukuba, Japan) concluded: “State-of-the-art climate models project that both the amount and intensity of Asian summer monsoon rainfall are likely to increase under global warming, and that the rates of increase will be higher than those in other monsoon regions.”


Figure 6. A stadium in Wuhan, China on July 6, 2016, after the city received 7.09” (180 mm) of rain in the twelve hours ending at 8 am July 6. Wuhan received over 560 mm (1.8 feet) of rain over the ten day period before the July 6 deluge, causing widespread damage and chaos. (Photo by Wang He/Getty Images)


Figure 7. The 2016 Yangtze River floods in China would rank as the third most expensive weather-related natural disaster on record outside of the U.S., according to Aon Benfield and the international disaster database EM-DAT.


Figure 8. The U.S. has seen twelve weather-related disasters costing at least $20 billion, with eight of them more expensive than the 2016 Chinese floods. Data source: NOAA/NCEI.

Events 6 - 10: Hurricane Matthew, Tropical Cyclone Winston, Lousiana’s “No-Name” storm, Super Typhoon Meranti and Tropical Cyclone Fantala
The remainder of the top ten weather events of 2016 were all tropical cyclones. I discussed these five storms in a late-December post, Top Ten Tropical Cyclone Events of 2016 Potentially Influenced by Climate Change:

6) Hurricane Matthew in Haiti, The Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S.
7) Tropical Cyclone Winston: Earth's Strongest Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone Ever Measured
8) Louisiana’s “No-Name” storm: the most damaging weather disaster of 2016 in the U.S.
9) Super Typhoon Meranti: Earth’s strongest landfalling tropical cyclone on record
10) Tropical Cyclone Fantala: strongest storm ever observed in the Indian Ocean

Other weather and climate of 2016 review articles
The Guardian: Climate change in 2016: the good, the bad, and the ugly
Climate Central: These Are the 10 Most Important Climate Stories of 2016
The Weather Channel: The Top 10 Weather Stories of 2016
Capital Weather Gang: Year of the flood: The nation’s 10 most extreme weather events of 2016

We'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Get ready for another El-Nino. Its already building subsurface across the Western Equatorial Pacific.



Scott it almost seems El-Niñoish with the heavy rains in California and active Gulf of Mexico winter storm track.

I won't visit India or China--Pakistan's air pollution is almost as bad as India's.
Quoting 1. StormTrackerScott:

Get ready for another El-Nino. Its already building subsurface across the Western Equatorial Pacific.






I would have expected the drought buster rains and snows out west to have come last year with the Super El Nino. Kinda weird that they are getting crushed it what seems to be and El Nino type scenario. I don't know if we'll get an El Nino or not but that doesn't matter for California and the other states They are and will be measuring snow in tens of feet! This is the best news for them (and all the other states out west). Amazing to see how weather balances itself out.
#11--Typhoon IBM mangles Weather Underground.
Weather is not FOX news and is NEVER FAIR nor BALANCED,as well.

Thanks for playing though.

Finally! Pollution is what people just might get! Why? Because you can see it and it's now, not some time in the future. Climate change is a science that most people will not take the time to learn, especially when the big impacts will not be in their lifetime. But, with images of pollution in our air, water, and land people can see what's happening. They don't need to learn the science. There is no debate over math or data. Its right there in front of your eyes. Water that catches fire! Eathquakes because fracking. Rivers, streams, lakes, and seas polluted by fossil fuels. The things that are happening now will kill you, that's what will get people's attention. The things that threaten to penetrate the bubble in which they live.

I would like to see more of this Dr. Masters.

Residents in Baton Rouge, La., cleaning out flood damaged homes in August. Credit Max Becherer for The New York Times

Scientists See Push From Climate Change in Louisiana Flooding
By HENRY FOUNTAIN SEPT. 7, 2016


Climate change has increased the likelihood of torrential downpours along the Gulf Coast like those that led to deadly floods in southern Louisiana last month, scientists said Wednesday.

Using historical records of rainfall and computer models that simulate climate, the researchers, including several from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, found that global warming increased the chances of such intense rains in the region by at least 40 percent.

“But it’s probably much closer to a doubling of the probability” of such an event, or a 100 percent increase, said Heidi Cullen, chief scientist for Climate Central, the research organization that coordinated the study. “Climate change played a very clear and quantifiable role,” she added.

A storm carrying large amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico stalled over southern Louisiana in mid-August, bringing several days of apocalyptic rain — up to two feet in 48 hours — that caused record flooding in Baton Rouge and elsewhere. The authorities said 13 people were killed and about 55,000 homes and 6,000 businesses were damaged in what is now considered the nation’s worst natural disaster since Hurricane Sandy, the storm that hit the Northeast in 2012.

Gov. John Bel Edwards, who was forced to flee the flooding with his family, said damage was expected to be close to $9 billion.

Climate scientists have long said that a warming atmosphere and oceans should lead to more intense and frequent rainstorms, because there will be greater evaporation, and warmer air holds more moisture. But until recent years most scientists have said it was not possible to link any single event to climate change.

“Hurricanes, frontal systems, thunderstorms — there are so many different ways to get a lot of precipitation” in the region, Dr. van der Wiel said. “It’s very important that the models realistically represent the weather.”

World Weather Attribution has conducted several similar studies in the past two years, including one earlier this year that linked floods in France in April to climate change. But the Louisiana study was the most difficult one yet because of the many factors involved for the Gulf Coast, said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a member of the team from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

This was the first time that NOAA has participated in a rapid attribution study. Monica Allen, a NOAA spokeswoman, said the agency would consider taking part in future studies. “Researchers, communities and businesses alike see the value in these analyses,” she said. “They help us grapple with what has happened and strengthen our ability to stay resilient to future events.”

Barry D. Keim, Louisiana’s state climatologist and a professor at Louisiana State University, said that while he was not familiar with World Weather Attribution’s methods, “I’m just not convinced that we can attribute any single event to climate change.” Nonetheless, he said, “there are some general consistencies between this event and climate change.”

Follow Henry Fountain on Twitter: @henryfountain

Like the Science Times page on Facebook. | Sign up for the Science Times newsletter.

Quoting 1. StormTrackerScott:

Get ready for another El-Nino. Its already building subsurface across the Western Equatorial Pacific.





I like El - Nino's because it means more rain here in the south.
After seeing error,error,error.....I finally get back on and no one is here. Bummer. I finally got some rain here in Tampa yesterday evening, and supposedly will get more Saturday. It has been a very dry, dry season.
Quoting 1. StormTrackerScott:

Get ready for another El-Nino. Its already building subsurface across the Western Equatorial Pacific...


More likely a warm neutral - imho.
I saw a post yesterday that I believe was talking about wind towers being visual blight. Huh!
Hey I got a post through. Try clicking the "Preview Comment" button first.
Since you're doing visuals, how about some tar sands and mountaintop removal?



This is what happens without regulation and environmental laws:
Quoting 13. washingaway:




Where was the photo taken? Horrible mess.
Quoting 18. SunnyDaysFla:



Where was the photo taken? Horrible mess.

You ain't seen nothing yet.
Quoting 9. SunnyDaysFla:

After seeing error,error,error.....I finally get back on and no one is here. Bummer. I finally got some rain here in Tampa yesterday evening, and supposedly will get more Saturday. It has been a very dry, dry season.

'Cause people can't get on the blog, and once they do, their posts disappear into the ethersphere. And refreshing the page? That takes the patience of Job...

Anywho, 26F and snowing here :)
PM 2.5 is not as toxic as cigarette smoke, because cigarette smoke has a lot of ill effects from classes of chemicals that are orders of magnitude more present in cigarette smoke than in PM 2.5.
Quoting 20. washingaway:


You ain't seen nothing yet.


So you are not going to tell me where that was taken?Somewhere where there is no coastal cleanup apparently.
Quoting 9. SunnyDaysFla:

After seeing error,error,error.....I finally get back on and no one is here. Bummer. I finally got some rain here in Tampa yesterday evening, and supposedly will get more Saturday. It has been a very dry, dry season.


I haven't been on here all day. Got a Blue screen on my main computer this morning and have just got in here on my laptop. No rain here yet.
Quoting 23. SunnyDaysFla:



So you are not going to tell me where that was taken?Somewhere where there is no coastal cleanup apparently.

I have to go back and look, haven't forgot your question. Just haven't gotten to the answer yet. But, its everywhere.

This is China.
As for cost of various drought and flood disasters: What are their apples-to-apples comparisons when inflation and population growth are factored in? What about coastal storm (tropical or otherwise) economic damage getting worse because of growth of population and property values in areas prone to being wrecked by coastal storms? It seems that what Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. says is true, and he is among the 97% of climate scientists who say we have significant climate change that is mostly manmade, and how has he been treated - in ways that few to the left of the Wall Street Journal like to say.
Quoting 23. SunnyDaysFla:



So you are not going to tell me where that was taken?Somewhere where there is no coastal cleanup apparently.

I believe it's Rio
Quoting 22. Klipperweather:

PM 2.5 is not as toxic as cigarette smoke, because cigarette smoke has a lot of ill effects from classes of chemicals that are orders of magnitude more present in cigarette smoke than in PM 2.5.


You apparently did not read the entire entry, nor it's implications.

Particulate matter (PM) is just a singular component of smog, and the health effects depend on WHAT the particles are. In the case of smog such as that found in China and India, it's particulate matter from burning uncatalyzed fossil fuels, agricultural wastes, factory emissions, etc. This creates a toxic mixture of ozone, partially burned hydrocarbons, fly ash, etc. which ends up having about a similar toxic exposure as the proffered two packs of cigarettes if not more so.

Even IF the smog did not contain toxic materials, long term exposure to elevated particulates has been shown to lead to chronic lung issues, cardiac issues, and elevated chances of cancer. Add in all the toxic crap those cities are throwing into the air and it just makes it that much worse.

But hey, soon we'll get to test that science ourselves!
I'm sorry SunnyDay, I had the phone in one hand while trying to post something from my iPad at the same time. As you can see that didn't go well.
Can't leave out coal ash slurry spills:








Very basic information regarding PM2.5, from the University of Utah, Atmospheric Sciences Department, Mountain Meteorology Group:

Why is PM2.5 of concern?

Particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers are hazardous to human health because they are readily inhaled into human lungs, where they can be deposited. Some of the particles are carcinogenic (i.e., cancer-causing), and the body's normal defenses such as nose hairs and mucous in the upper respiratory tract cannot readily remove these tiny particles before they are deposited in the lungs. The health concern has been documented scientifically, with the main concern being a lodging of the small aerosol particles in the lungs. The Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) standard has been established because of known health effects, including:

- reduced lung function,
- harmful cardiovascular effects such as heart attacks and strokes, and
- premature death,

but much health effect research still remains to be done to determine the pathways of the effects seen from epidemiological and clinical studies.

PM2.5 pollution can be linked to a variety of other significant health issues. Many residents report burning eyes, sore throats, and headaches. In the Salt Lake Valley, a recent study has documented the rise in emergency room visits for pulmonary problems that is correlated with the length of pollution episodes. Of special concern is the health of people most at risk from PM exposure. These include people with heart or lung disease, children, older adults and people of lower socioeconomic status.

PM2.5 pollution also harms public welfare. It causes haze, reduces visibility, contributes to transportation hazards, causes soiling of materials, and its close association with temperature inversions and the buildup of shallow stratiform clouds within the valley can sometimes result in freezing drizzle or freezing rain episodes, with attendant transportation problems, including the cancellation of scheduled aircraft flights.


Source page - Frequently Asked Questions about Wintertime PM2.5 Pollution in Utah's Salt Lake Valley
Next Storm for San Diego Area




Keep them coming!

This is in India.


P.S. IBM sucks!
Quoting 30. LAbonbon:

Can't leave out coal ash slurry spills:



Now, what is that saying?.....hmm.....oh yeah! COAL IS KING!
The Citarum River in Indonesia is So Polluted That You Can't Even See the Water (PHOTOS and VIDEO)





On that depressing note, I'm headed to bed. Good night all. Maybe we'll all get our wish and tomorrow will be a day without rainbows and error messages?

No math required.
Don't worry folks, your environment is in good hands. Oops
Thanks for the summary of 2016, Doc! And good morning everybody (despite the ugly environmental photos in the comment section this morning, huh; really bad things still happen).

Below a new insight concerning air pollution:
Dementia rates 'higher near busy roads'
BBC, By James Gallagher Health and science reporter, BBC News website, 45 minutes ago
... The researchers, who followed nearly 2m people in Canada over 11 years, say air pollution or noisy traffic could be contributing to the brain's decline. ...
Smog in Mumbai, India:



Smog in China:

Quoting 37. washingaway:


No math required.

If that's steam it looks beautiful, if it's smoke it's bad.
Here some fresh reports from the flooding at the southwestern coast of the Baltic Sea last night:

The Local (Denmark): IN PHOTOS: 100-year flood hits Denmark
Water levels in parts of Denmark reached up to 177cm (6ft) above normal on Thursday morning after a predicted winter storm swept through the nation.
The water rose so high in areas in southern Denmark that the Danish Meteorology Institute (DMI) said that levels reached heights that statistically only come once a century. ...


DW: Storm Axel batters northern Germany
The northeastern coast has been hit by the worst storm its seen since 2006. Emergency workers scrambled to protect the region's citizens and many historical sites

UNESCO world heritage site of Wismar in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (source article above).

The Local (Germany): Storm Axel brings worst Baltic Sea flooding in decade
Flooded streets and basements, cars underwater, dams overwhelmed - storm Axel brought great damage to parts of the Baltic coast on Wednesday, but no injuries.

BBC: German Baltic coast hit by storm surge flooding
A storm surge has caused the worst flooding on Germany's north-east coast since 2006, leaving streets and cars submerged and causing major damage.
Towns and cities along the Baltic coast were flooded, from Kiel in the far north to the resort island of Usedom near the Polish border.
Sea levels were recorded in the port of Wismar at 1.83m (6ft) above normal overnight. ...


As I've said last night, the high waters were mainly created by a seiche.
Albanians are expecting a sea-vered snow storm.
Germany 'pollution spike' follows New Year's Eve fireworks
BBC, 3 January 2017
New Year's Eve fireworks contributed to dangerously high levels of pollution in several German cities, official figures suggest.
In Munich, particulate levels briefly reached 26 times the EU-recommended daily limit of 50 micrograms of particulates per cubic metre of air.
National figures suggest that firework displays ejected some 4,000 tonnes of particulates into the atmosphere.
That reportedly equates to 15% of yearly vehicle particulate emissions. ...



(Click to enlarge). Smog created by fireworks during an inversion of air layers due to high pressure this NYE at Rosenheim in Bavaria. Source: foto-webcam.eu. Webcam in Munich shows impenetrable smog at this time of the night. It has been the same thing in many other parts of Germany that night, including the place of my parents near Frankfurt. And yes, my family did some fireworks as well although I myself did not buy any this year. And our neighbours fired stuff like hell for half an hour, creating very bad air in this suburb ... Time to change those German habits of celebration.
Weekend SE snowstorm. Looks like the cold air may be a bit delayed. Currently looking like eastern interior NC with the lion's share. My area of Florence, SC forecasted to start as rain, mix, then change to snow. Of course if the deep cold air moves in more quickly and/ or the low pressure tracks further offshore or behind schedule, the p-type scenario changes. I suspect someone will get walloped. Best guess is just east of Fayetteville, NC.
From RealClimate:

The underestimated danger of a breakdown of the Gulf Stream System

A new model simulation of the Gulf Stream System shows a breakdown of the gigantic overturning circulating in the Atlantic after a CO2 doubling.


A new study in Science Advances by Wei Liu and colleagues at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego and the University of Wisconsin-Madison has important implications for the future stability of the overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. They applied a correction to the freshwater fluxes in the Atlantic, in order to better reproduce the salt concentration of ocean waters there. This correction changes the overall salt budget for the Atlantic, also changing the stability of the model’s ocean circulation in future climate change. The Atlantic ocean circulation is relatively stable in the uncorrected model, only declining by about 20% in response to a CO2 doubling, but in the corrected model version it breaks down completely in the centuries following a CO2 doubling, with dramatic consequences for the climate of the Northern Hemisphere.

Click here to read full article.

Click here to read full text of the study 'Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate'

Tar Sands: The Most Destructive Project on Earth



The report 'The most destructive project on Earth' [PDF]

Quoting 21. LAbonbon:


'Cause people can't get on the blog, and once they do, their posts disappear into the ethersphere. And refreshing the page? That takes the patience of Job...

Anywho, 26F and snowing here :)

Note that making a website difficult to dialog on inhibits dialog. I have seen this happen with other websites over the years that were sharing a little too much information to easily.

I'm not suggesting that the website's operators would do such a thing, but others would.
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:

"The year 2016 will easily beat 2015 as the warmest year on record"






Quoting 43. barbamz:

IN PHOTOS: 100-year flood hits Denmark
Water levels in parts of Denmark reached up to 177cm (6ft) above normal on Thursday morning after a predicted winter storm swept through the nation.


Well that was easy. Not even a moon to help.
I wonder what situations like 25th/26th of Feb 1990 or 1st of Feb 1953 would wreak today (though both would not yet become more than a nuisance for the Netherlands at least).
Meanwhile:

buffer zone? cimms posted... seems plausible that during more active periods a buffer zone of unfavorable ul winds as well as cooler water temps protects the conus
From NOLA.com:

Oil platform fire reported in Gulf of Mexico near Grand Isle

An oil production platform is on fire in the Gulf of Mexico near Grand Isle, the U.S. Coast Guard said Thursday morning (Jan. 5). The four people on the platform were rescued with no injuries.

The Coast Guard did not release the name of the platform, but said it is about 80 miles south of Grand Isle. The fire was reported at 2:30 a.m. to the Coast Guard, who confirmed it publicly at 5:30 a.m.

The four people on the platform "evacuated into the water" and were recovered by offshore supply vessel Mary Wyatt Milano, the Coast Guard said. The crew of the Mary Wyatt Milano, along with three more offshore supply vessels, are currently fighting the fire.

A Coast Guard HC-144 Ocean Sentry aircrew from Mobile is enroute. In addition, representatives from Clean Gulf, an oil response organization, are enroute.

The cause of the fire is under investigation, authorities said. There was no immediate word if oil was released and if so, how much.

Check back for more details on this developing story.
I have never complained about a slow blog or technical issues...but this is beyond ridiculous.
From NPR:

Louisiana History Washes Away As Sea Levels Rise, Land Sinks


Louisiana is losing its coast faster than any other place in the world. As land disappears and the water creeps inland, ancient archaeology sites are washing away. The roots of a dead oak tree at the edge of an ancient Native American mound are all that hold the land together.
Tegan Wendland/WWNO

Louisiana is losing its coast at a rapid rate because of rising sea levels, development and sinking marshland. Officials are trying to rebuild those marshes and the wetlands, but much of the coast can't be saved. This makes Louisiana's history an unwitting victim. As land disappears and the water creeps inland, ancient archaeology sites are washing away, too.

Click here to read full article.

Quoting 55. Greg01:

I have never complained about a slow blog or technical issues...but this is beyond ridiculous.


Honestly, at this point, screw throwing money at it. They really should just flush the blogs entirely. Shut em down, sayonara.

Not worth it any longer.
Just got my baby Groot kit (baby trees) from Arbor foundation.
Trees are a great way to cool, take CO2 out of the air and add value to a home.
I also use them as weather protection as they break the wind during storms saving shingles and providing free firewood.
Who is Groot? Its a nerd thing from "Guardians of the Galaxy" Appropriate role for a tree :)
Yea its a primitive idea but it works and is fun.
Quoting 56. Xandra:

From NPR:

Louisiana History Washes Away As Sea Levels Rise, Land Sinks


Louisiana is losing its coast faster than any other place in the world. As land disappears and the water creeps inland, ancient archaeology sites are washing away. The roots of a dead oak tree at the edge of an ancient Native American mound are all that hold the land together.
Tegan Wendland/WWNO

Louisiana is losing its coast at a rapid rate because of rising sea levels, development and sinking marshland. Officials are trying to rebuild those marshes and the wetlands, but much of the coast can't be saved. This makes Louisiana's history an unwitting victim. As land disappears and the water creeps inland, ancient archaeology sites are washing away, too.

Click here to read full article.




In many cases sea level rise and erosion of the coastline are confused. With the lack of soils replacing the soil that is being eroded, the land just washes away.
Sea level rise increases the problem. But it's erosion that is the main force that removes large areas of land over a short period of time.
Quoting 27. washingaway:


I believe it's Rio

Definitely not Rio (the hills are all wrong), and from the vegetation it looks to be somewhere much further from the equator.
Quoting 59. Sfloridacat5:



In many cases sea level rise and erosion of the coastline are confused. With the lack of soils replacing the soil that is being eroded, the land just washes away.
Sea level rise increases the problem. But it's erosion that is the main force that removes large areas of land over a short period of time.

[...] coastal Louisiana has seen its relative sea level rise by eight inches or more in the last 50 years,[2] which is about twice the global rate.



Photograph by Robert Caputo
Toys No More Link
A child plays on Fourchon Beach in front of a barge sunk along the shore to protect the beach from erosion. Seven such barges bristle with interlocking concrete slabs designed to reduce wave energy, but the results have been a wash. Between 1999—when the jacks were installed—and 2002 the hurricane-wracked beach retreated an average of 45 feet (14 meters) a year. The beach protects nearby Port Fourchon, the supply base for half the offshore oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. More than 600 oil and gas platforms lie within a 40-mile (60-kilometer) radius.
47. Xandra
6:45 AM EST on January 05, 2017




Quoting 60. ACSeattle:


Definitely not Rio (the hills are all wrong), and from the vegetation it looks to be somewhere much further from the equator.


My guess is, that the photo is taken along western coast of North America, and the trash is primarily Japanese tsunami debris.
Peoples of the wu,
More than the blogs are messed up.

GO STRAIGHT to NWS. WU forecast from NWS may be incorrect. It is for my area. Also, I cannot tick the PRECIP TOTAL. Best forecast questionable, always has been. The "best" forecast trending warmer here than what NWS has for temps.

Those concerned with Louisiana might want to delve more deeply what's gone on human infrastructure and development-wise before blaming any water level rise on GW. Also, I don't know exact location of whatever you're looking at, but the Mississippi River's penchant for wanting to relocate itself has an effect also.

'Bye for now, posting in this blog has become more frustrating than it's worth.
Quoting 57. nash36:



Honestly, at this point, screw throwing money at it. They really should just flush the blogs entirely. Shut em down, sayonara.

Not worth it any longer.


Quitter,


:p
As an American, this is so very embarrassing...

From AGU, Dan Satterfield's latest blog: House Science Committee Stoops to Name Calling and Fantasy Science
We have seen this before, it's called the "Dark Age"......................................
Quoting 46. HaoleboySurfEC:

Weekend SE snowstorm. Looks like the cold air may be a bit delayed. Currently looking like eastern interior NC with the lion's share. My area of Florence, SC forecasted to start as rain, mix, then change to snow. Of course if the deep cold air moves in more quickly and/ or the low pressure tracks further offshore or behind schedule, the p-type scenario changes. I suspect someone will get walloped. Best guess is just east of Fayetteville, NC.


Yep. As of right now, looks like we will be left with nothing but wet weather down here in the Charleston area. At least per the NAM trend. Interestingly the GFS and ECMWF seem to have flipped on speed of low. ECMWF was the faster model for quite some time. Now slightly slower.

06z GFS forecast for Sun at 00z



00z ECMWF forecast for Sun at 00z



Comparatively, the NAM is the fastest of them all. Almost a full 24hrs off of where the ECMWF is.

12Z NAM forecast for 00z Sun

Quoting 57. nash36:



Honestly, at this point, screw throwing money at it. They really should just flush the blogs entirely. Shut em down, sayonara.

Not worth it any longer.


I have had better luck coming in to the blog from the Blog Directory than from the drop down menu. And personally, I just wish someone would step up and fix the damn thing. We've all made a a bizarre sort of home here for over 10 years. It can't be recreated anywhere else.
From EOS:

Coastal wetland loss after an oil spill can be more extensive than after a hurricane

By Elizabeth Jacobsen 28 December 2016
On 20 April 2010, a massive natural gas explosion destroyed the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 workers, sinking the rig, and releasing the largest marine oil spill in history. Oil slicks spread slowly toward the coast, reaching upper Barataria Bay in Louisiana by mid-May.

At the time, the coastlines of the Mississippi River Delta were already retreating: Upstream dams that reduced sediment deposit in the delta, sea level rise, subsidence, and wave erosion had all eaten away at the coastal wetlands. Now Rangoonwala et al. show that oiling from the Deepwater Horizon spill may have made the delta’s wetland loss far more extensive.
Full article

Link to research paper (unfortunately behind a paywall)
I am hopeful that Admin is working on locating the issue and not too far fetched to consider the possibility of some type of hacking virus inserted to slow down the blog or the site; just noting that they might need to bring in a professional outfit to do a good up to date virus scan/search on the entire system to this if this is the issue. It would cost a bit more than in-house tech but might be a viable option at this point.
It's a switch to the Amazon Cloud server, that is having issues. There is no attack, nor virus. It is a software issue.


I only mind melded with the server 2 weeks ago today.

So, don't blame me.

: )

Hey All,
I wish the blog was working better. I wish I could send Mr. Trump a link to the blog and comments.
Maybe through Twitter.
Quoting 19. washingaway:


Quoting 64. elioe:



My guess is, that the photo is taken along western coast of North America, and the trash is primarily Japanese tsunami debris.
Quoting 60. ACSeattle:


Definitely not Rio (the hills are all wrong), and from the vegetation it looks to be somewhere much further from the equator.
Quoting 27. washingaway:


I believe it's Rio


It definitely is Rio. The "pollution" being observed most likely is because the ship is - most likely - dredging at that moment to maintain the depth of the berth (if that is the correct word).

Information from wikipedicommons:

{{Information |Description={{en|1=Brasfels shipyard facilities in Jacuecanga Rio de Janeiro Brazil}} |Source=Own work |Author=Alex Rio Brazil |Date=2006-07-15 |Permission= |other_versions= }} {{location|22|59|59.14|S|44|14|41.35|W


Information on the ship:

Title: BOA VISTA I Added: Nov 03, 2006
IMO: 7522100
Photo Category: Dredgers
Description: Arriving Santos on 23/09/2006
Flag: Brazil
Sister:Macapa
Ex Names: BOA VISTA 1 (1977)
Call Sign: PS3319
Type of ship: Hopper Dredger
Gross tonnage: 5519
Year of build: 1977
Overall Length: 106.6 m
Breadth: 18.3 m
Depth: 9.7 m
Speed: 13 kn
Builder: I.H.C.SMIT
Flash Flood Warning
CAC029-107-052100-
/O.NEW.KHNX.FF.W.0001.170105T1510Z-170105T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
710 AM PST THU JAN 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Hanford CA has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
North central Kern County in central California...
South central Tulare County in central California...

* Until 100 PM PST

* At 707 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain falling across the warned area. 5 to 9 inches of rain
have fallen.
Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bodfish, South Lake, Weldon, Lake Isabella, Riverkern,
Johnsondale, Democrat, Wofford Heights, Mountain Mesa, Kernville,
Glennville and Fountain Springs.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow
moving through the White River, Kern River, Poso Creek, Deer Creek
drainages. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and
other loose materials.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Quoting 72. LAbonbon:

From EOS:

Coastal wetland loss after an oil spill can be more extensive than after a hurricane

By Elizabeth Jacobsen 28 December 2016
On 20 April 2010, a massive natural gas explosion destroyed the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 workers, sinking the rig, and releasing the largest marine oil spill in history. Oil slicks spread slowly toward the coast, reaching upper Barataria Bay in Louisiana by mid-May.

At the time, the coastlines of the Mississippi River Delta were already retreating: Upstream dams that reduced sediment deposit in the delta, sea level rise, subsidence, and wave erosion had all eaten away at the coastal wetlands. Now Rangoonwala et al. show that oiling from the Deepwater Horizon spill may have made the delta’s wetland loss far more extensive.
Full article

Link to research paper (unfortunately behind a paywall)



Here Labb: Research paper (opens a pdf)
Quite the injection of moisture plume Id say.

Rivers are rising...


(Source)
haven't been here in quite some time as well, life, other interests and that darn thing called work have intervened. However, I've missed you all, some for good reasons others well not. LOL. Good morning boys and girls
Quoting 78. daddyjames:



Here Labb: Research paper (opens a pdf)
Hey, I don't know how you did it, but thank you! Been wanting to read the full paper. Notorious Daddy J does it again!
Dead fish. Rio



Not sure why the jet stream graphic is truncated
Quoting 83. washingaway:

Dead fish. Rio




THAT PICTURE IS FROM 2015
Quoting 82. LAbonbon:

Hey, I don't know how you did it, but thank you! Been wanting to read the full paper. Notorious Daddy J does it again!


Google Scholar

Often links to available online versions of the paper - not always though.
Hey, rainbows didn't make the list!

Anyway, latest NAM keeps frozen precip north of ILM :(

But I guess if that means no ice that's all right
I remember this: alewives in lake Michigan


Link
Quoting 87. win1gamegiantsplease:

Hey, rainbows didn't make the list!

Anyway, latest NAM keeps frozen precip north of ILM :(

But I guess if that means no ice that's all right

Good morning. What's ILM?
Quoting 75. HotToddy62:

Hey All,
I wish the blog was working better. I wish I could send Mr. Trump a link to the blog and comments.
Maybe through Twitter.


Twitter would be your best bet. Make sure you make a snide comment somewhere, it might go right past him.
Hi everyone! I thought the blog had been shut down. I can't get on here on my 7+ anymore.
Quoting 85. ricderr:




THAT PICTURE IS FROM 2015


2013
Precip totals for Pittsylvania county are steadily going up the closer we get to this event. At least itll be during the weekend when most people stay home anyway.

EDIT: I should have put can stay home.lol my apologies.
Quoting 93. Storms306:

Precip totals for Pittsylvania county are steadily going up the closer we get to this event. At least itll be during the weekend when most people stay home anyway.


Most people are out on the weekends....at least in my part of the world in SE TX.....BOOMING POPULATION AND MARKET DOWN HERE
95. bwi
Saturday storm inching closer to DC in teh progs

Quoting 94. RitaEvac:



Most people are out on the weekends....at least in my part of the world in SE TX.....BOOMING POPULATION AND MARKET DOWN HERE

Thats true Rita, however most people choose to be out on the weekends. It's not as much a necessity as it would be during the work week. Well up here in Southside VA I mean. lol
Quoting 62. Sfloridacat5:




Photograph by Robert Caputo
Toys No More Link
A child plays on Fourchon Beach in front of a barge sunk along the shore to protect the beach from erosion. Seven such barges bristle with interlocking concrete slabs designed to reduce wave energy, but the results have been a wash. Between 1999—when the jacks were installed—and 2002 the hurricane-wracked beach retreated an average of 45 feet (14 meters) a year. The beach protects nearby Port Fourchon, the supply base for half the offshore oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. More than 600 oil and gas platforms lie within a 40-mile (60-kilometer) radius.

Such a great view, too - much nicer than ugly windmills! (snark)
Quoting 85. ricderr:




THAT PICTURE IS FROM 2015

Apparently you are missing the point. I have been posting things that illustrate what will happen here without environmental laws. Are you aware that there is talk of doing away with the EPA?
Quoting 92. RitaEvac:



2013

you're right, my bad
Quoting 97. CaneFreeCR:

Such a great view, too - much nicer than ugly windmills! (snark)


Makes one wonder why they don't complain about the offshore oil rigs ruining their view. :/
China Makes Major Investment In Renewable Power Generation
China will plow 2.5 trillion yuan ($361 billion) into renewable power generation by 2020, the country’s energy agency said on Thursday, as the world’s largest energy market continues to shift away from dirty coal power towards cleaner fuels.

The investment will create over 13 million jobs in the sector, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said in a blueprint document that lays out its plan to develop the nation’s energy sector during the five-year 2016 to 2020 period.

The NEA said installed renewable power capacity including wind, hydro, solar and nuclear power will contribute to about half of new electricity generation by 2020.

The agency did not disclose more details on where the funds, which equate to about $72 billion each year, would be spent.

Still, the investment reflects Beijing’s continued focus on curbing the use of fossil fuels, which have fostered the country’s economic growth over the past decade, as it ramps up its war on pollution.
Quoting 98. washingaway:


Apparently you are missing the point. I have been posting things that illustrate what will happen here without environmental laws. Are you aware that there is talk of doing away with the EPA?



i wasn't arguing only clarifying and as for the epa, there's been talk about ending it since it's inception
From Motherboard:

The Bento Rodrigues Dam Collapsed a Year Ago and It's Nowhere Near Fixed


The damage left by the dam break, seen in July 2016. Image: Ibama/Flickr
[Click image to view full size]

Sandra Quintão spent New Year’s Eve in a ghost town, surrounded by the remnants of her old life. The 44-year-old was a lifelong resident of Bento Rodrigues, a 600-person mining town in southern Brazil when her whole world became covered in mud. Bento Rodrigues stood at the edge of a dam filled with 1.9 billion cubic feet of mineral waste. In November 2015 the dam burst, sending a tidal wave of iron ore refuse that blanketed the region in the worst environmental disaster in Brazilian history.

Quintã was working in the restaurant she owned, cleaning up after the late-lunch crowd when a neighbor zoomed toward her on a motorcycle, warning that the dam had collapsed and urging everyone to run. Quintão thought of sprinting to her house to gather her documents, but when she saw the mud surging towards her she knew she wouldn’t have enough time. She grabbed her three-year-old daughter and climbed a water tower, the highest point in town, just in time to see the mud engulf her house. Within ten minutes the village was destroyed.

One year later, the surviving residents of Bento gathered for an improvised barbeque amongst the ruins to celebrate the start of a new year. “We can’t let go of Bento,” said Quintão.

The sludge killed 19 people, including a 7-year-old boy, and rendered another 700 homeless. The waste flowed down the River Doce, killing wildlife along the way, until it reached the Atlantic Ocean nearly 400 miles from the dam. The disaster left a red stain on the region that was visible from space. Authorities say the recovery is expected to take more than ten years.

Click here to read full article.
Clear and cold here on the redwood coast - hit a low of 27° according to my PWS. Enjoying the sunshine over the next couple of days until a couple of storms impact the area. NOAA is currently calling for 2-4" of rain between Saturday morning and Sunday evening. Should be a soggy weekend!
Quoting 48. Xandra:

Tar Sands: The Most Destructive Project on Earth



The report 'The most destructive project on Earth' [PDF]




Let's make the world brown again!
Quoting 98. washingaway:


Apparently you are missing the point. I have been posting things that illustrate what will happen here without environmental laws. Are you aware that there is talk of doing away with the EPA?


Also, there is no realistic way Trump can do away with the EPA. Congress would have to authorize it and even under Republican control that is highly unlikely to happen.
Quoting 98. washingaway:


Apparently you are missing the point. I have been posting things that illustrate what will happen here without environmental laws. Are you aware that there is talk of doing away with the EPA?


I'd love to say "So with the EPA gone, there will be more dead fish in Rio in 2013?"

Seriously, since the EPA does help some folks want it gone. Like the GOP moving the ethics commission under house control was scrapped. efforts to shut down or neuter the EPA should also fail.
Why? Senators and representatives want to keep their jobs.
Granted the government is not perfect. If the drinking water pollution in Flint Mich. was done by people instead of a government agency it would have been called terrorism. Only when people complained did things change. This is proof of our power.
We can make things better - Trump or not. Education is key.

Quoting 102. ricderr:




i wasn't arguing only clarifying and as for the epa, there's been talk about ending it since it's inception


True, but now it looks like it will actually happen. It might still remain as an agency, but it will be a gutted toothless wreck.

Looking forward to breathing that "freedom smog" and drinking "patriotic lead". :P
The lows forecast for last night were not even close, this air mass is much colder than predicted. The forecast was -19f, that temp was surpassed by 9pm, the actual low temp was -29.4f.

It is warming up now -13f with a slight wind making it feel like -28f, at least the sun is bright.

The lake was making ice last night it was popping, cracking and banging all night. I wish the fishing was better though.
Concerning the blog issues, this is what WU-member sandiquiz has posted today on her blog:

Quoting 33. sandiquiz:

So, OK...I got a reply to my mail.
This is what one of the support team said.

Hello,

We're in the process of a backend migration. Although the transition may cause some outages and page errors, the end result will be better stability and higher speed. It will often work after a short time or a page refresh.

Apologies for the inconvenience!
Thank you,
William
Wunderground Support
Thank you Dr. Masters, great post! Food System Shock: Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization is also a must-read IMO.

These are rather informative articles I found yesterday on this blog's topic:
- U.S. had more floods in 2016 than any year on record (USA Today)
- Natural disaster damage hits 4-year high: Munich Re (Phys.org)
- Global Natural Catastrophes Cost Insurers $50B in 2016: Munich Re (Insurance Journal)
=========

"One official record has already been announced: Earth's warmest year in the 38-year satellite-measured lower atmosphere temperature record was 2016, beating a record had stood since 1998, according to the University of Alabama-Huntsville (UAH.)"

:-) At least it will make it even more difficult for the deniers who like to use the UAH record in order to minimize the warming that has already occured...

"The deadliest and costliest weather events of 2016 were very likely high pressure systems with light winds and stagnant air that led to lethal build-ups of dangerous air pollutants in Asia."

Very interesting. One such system also caused an important build-up of air pollutants over Europe lately :
- Paris is suffering under the "dirtiest air in a decade" (The Local, Dec 7).
Also relevant, this article from the Financial Times (Dec 31) about Poland:
- Polish city more polluted than Beijing - Coal burning makes Poland Europe's capital of smog
Quoting 89. LAbonbon:


Good morning. What's ILM?


Wilmington NC

Quoting 93. Storms306:

Precip totals for Pittsylvania county are steadily going up the closer we get to this event. At least itll be during the weekend when most people stay home anyway.

EDIT: I should have put can stay home.lol my apologies.


SW Virginia/NW NC are expected to be drier than the rest of the Piedmont, so we might not see as much as say Raleigh, Richmond, etc. Thank the Appalachians for making this area arguably the safest on the eastern seaboard.
trying 6 or 7 times to post this. rainbowed 3X.

Quoting 110. barbamz:

Concerning the blog issues, this is what WU-member sandiquiz has posted today on her blog:




Backend migration? My a$$ ;D

Edit: Self-deprecating jokes are not understood or not appreciated?
Quoting 113. ChiThom:

trying 6 or 7 times to post this. rainbowed 3X.




Sorry for the continued problems with the blogs. The admins are looking at it again, but the issue is difficult to resolve since we are transitioning to serving our pages from a 3rd-party source (Amazon Web Services) that doesn't give us the sort of diagnostics we need to really dig into the issue. In the longer term, we are committed to junking the entire blog software system in about three months, and will transition to a 3rd party blog software system called Drupal.

Jeff Masters
A little further north

Flash Flood Warning
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley CA
850 AM PST THU JAN 5 2017

CAC029-107-052100-
/O.CON.KHNX.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-170105T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
Kern CA-Tulare CA-
850 AM PST THU JAN 5 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM PST FOR
NORTH CENTRAL KERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL TULARE COUNTIES...

At 846 AM PST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
that heavy rain was continuing to fall over the area. Additional
rainfall of up to an inch may still occur before ending later this
morning. Flash flooding may be occuring or occur over the next
several hours.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will result in debris flow
moving through the Kern River drainage. The debris flow can consist
of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Squirrel Mountain Valley, Bodfish, South Lake Cdp, Weldon, Lake
Isabella, Riverkern, Johnsondale, Breckenridge Mtn, Democrat,
Ponderosa, Wofford Heights, Peppermint, Mountain Mesa, Uhl,
Kernville, Glennville and Fountain Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Quoting 107. TechnoCaveman:



I'd love to say "So with the EPA gone, there will be more dead fish in Rio in 2013?"

Seriously, since the EPA does help some folks want it gone. Like the GOP moving the ethics commission under house control was scrapped. efforts to shut down or neuter the EPA should also fail.
Why? Senators and representatives want to keep their jobs.
Granted the government is not perfect. If the drinking water pollution in Flint Mich. was done by people instead of a government agency it would have been called terrorism. Only when people complained did things change. This is proof of our power.
We can make things better - Trump or not. Education is key.



Why does it always have to be after the disaster? Warnings are abundant, but it's wait until it happens, always after. Prevention is the key, not cleanup.
Quoting 74. Patrap:

It's a switch to the Amazon Cloud server, that is having issues. There is no attack, nor virus. It is a software issue.


I only mind melded with the server 2 weeks ago today.

So, don't blame me.

: )






He's on His way now Sir'...


Quoting 110. barbamz:

Concerning the blog issues, this is what WU-member sandiquiz has posted today on her blog:




Which is IT-speak for "we don't care about our customers' inconvenience, only about getting our job done with the least effort on our part"
The U.S.'s first offshore wind farm, Block Island Wind Farm, began operating last month.



But we still lag well behind other countries: List of offshore wind farms

Flint's lead in the water,tap...was done via a Political "Decision".

It is a manmade Disaster.
Quoting 122. LAbonbon:

The U.S.'s first offshore wind farm, Block Island Wind Farm, began operating last month.





That is so ugly. I sure hope I can't see that from the golf course.
China has a great advantage per the link below on their renewable energy funding initiative with the big bucks gained from manufacturing goods for the rest of the world over the last several decades coupled with letting the US and Soviet Union/Russia, and their proxies, fight the oil wars on the ground depleting their own reserves/creating deficits (and losing domestic manufacturing jobs along the way)................Must Be Nice.
Quoting 116. JeffMasters:



Sorry for the continued problems with the blogs. The admins are looking at it again, but the issue is difficult to resolve since we are transitioning to serving our pages from a 3rd-party source (Amazon Web Services) that doesn't give us the sort of diagnostics we need to really dig into the issue. In the longer term, we are committed to junking the entire blog software system in about three months, and will transition to a 3rd party blog software system called Drupal.

Jeff Masters


Although not necessary. If a notice had been posted beforehand and during this process - I think some would have been less "cranky" about it (although, I have not voiced anything).

Even if was just a "general notice" - or a banner - or something that indicates that the process is occurring and what could be expected while it is on-going. Although, I imagine that there are "hiccups" that were not foreseen.
Quoting 125. weathermanwannabe:

China has a great advantage per the link below on their renewable energy funding initiative with the big bucks gained from manufacturing goods for the rest of the world over the last several decades coupled with letting the US and Soviet Union/Russia, and their proxies, fight the oil wars on the ground depleting their own reserves/creating deficits (and losing domestic manufacturing jobs along the way)................Must Be Nice.


Short-term goal: Pollution reduction, reduction in reliance on energy subject to market swings/availability.
Long-term goal: Market share in renewable products.
We love the Blog Dr. Masters and will be patient with the upgrades and migration. Back to the weather:



Current U.S. Drought Monitor

Quoting 104. DCMann2:

Clear and cold here on the redwood coast - hit a low of 27° according to my PWS. Enjoying the sunshine over the next couple of days until a couple of storms impact the area. NOAA is currently calling for 2-4" of rain between Saturday morning and Sunday evening. Should be a soggy weekend!

Only got down to 30 at my place in Arcata.

I think if we really get 6-14 inches of rain in the next wee, especially warm rain, we are going to see some serious high water and multiple landslides. Let's just hope we don't have a big earthquake while everything is saturated!

I just wish these sunny days would happen on the weekend.
NWS NOLA/Slidell Wording has some interesting solutions now progged for the NW Parishes in our area.

We traveling to McComb to spend a nice weekend away from the Puppys.

Family will have that duty as the 37 days now and teething,roaming,lil Wolfs.

Will blog some conditions tomorrow evening.


The cold front that is expected to bring the problems is 
currently located from central Texas to northern la to northern MS.
This front is mainly observed via dp temps. The front will slowly
move southward today and move through the area late tonight. Temps
will progressively fall through the 50s and 40s into the day
Friday. The depth of the cold air at the sfc will be about 2500'
with a strong deep warm nose above. The temperature will continue
to steadily and slowly cool through the day Friday until the 30s
are achieved over the northern portion of the area. The front will
also help the lifting process at the sfc. This along with the
dynamic draw due to the upper jet processes will enhance rainfall
in a very efficient isentropic lift process. This light to
moderate rainfall will couple with a continued surge of dry air at
the sfc to cause a strong wet bulb effect.

The cold air will be too shallow at first to cause any wintry
precip Friday morning but as the day progresses, this will change.
The lowest layers should cool and become deep enough to begin
observing sleet mixing with rain Friday afternoon. This process
should begin between 2pm and 4pm Friday over the northern most
areas of the cwa. Sleet will become more likely as the late
afternoon progresses. After sunset, the sfc will have cooled
enough to begin observing some mixing of freezing rain and sleet
through Friday evening into early Saturday morning. The moisture
begins to lift out of the area after midnight Friday night so the
amount of time wintry precip will fall could be as much as 8 hours
for any particular location north of the i10/i12 corridor. The
change over as the column cools should be from -ra changing to
ra;ip changing to -zr;ip changing to -ip;-sn before ending as the
moisture pulls out Saturday morning.

Accumulations are not expected to be large but there is the
potential to see several locations with up to an 1/8th inch of
ice mainly on elevated structures, trees and power lines Friday
night into early Saturday. Even though this is a small amount, it
can and likely will cause issues especially for travel. Further
evaluation of amounts and accumulations will be forthcoming and
could change. Please look for subsequent forecasts concerning this
evolving winter weather scenario.

Long term...
no major changes to extended.
From the The Straits Times, this article is a good overview of air quality issues in China and how they relate to economics.

Smoking out the culprits behind smog in Beijing
'Airpocalypse' will blanket the city as long as coal is a preferred fuel source and demand for cars doesn't slow

Possibly virga going on in NC/VA right now? I'd link a radar pic but I'm afraid the blog will shred it.
Quoting 123. Patrap:

Flint's lead in the water,tap...was done via a Political "Decision".

It is a manmade Disaster.


More than that. The whole "financial crises" in the cities was entirely manufactured as well:

Former treasurer of Michigan: The Flint water crisis was 'decades in the making'
Since 2001, over $6 billion earmarked for cities has been diverted to cover state budget shortfalls.

Professor: Blame Treasury, not just DEQ, in Flint water mess

The Flint Water Crisis, KWA and Strategic-Structural Racism (opens a pdf of the report mentioned above)
Between 2006, the last year Flint ran a budget surplus and planned FY 2012, on the eve of it being placed under an Emergency Manager under PL 4, state revenue sharing fell 61% from $20 million to $7.9 million.31 The inference is clear. The primary, non-structural reason Flint was in financial distress was the direct result of state revenue sharing policy. This fact does not get the public attention it deserves. The State of Michigan created the very financial distress in Flint and other cities that it then used to supposedly justified the need for Emergency Managers.

The Great Revenue Sharing Heist

Revenue Sharing Factsheet

Gotta make a big pot of chicken & sausage gumbo, I'm hibernating this weekend.
Models shifted low closer to SE coast.


12Z Yesterday




12Z Today

Not sure if it got through, here's to try 2

NAM says nada :(



Quoting 136. washingaway:

Gotta make a big pot of chicken & sausage gumbo, I'm hibernating this weekend.


All about that Brunswick stew, pintos, and cornbread my friend. I miss Carter Bros.
Curious of some opinions on here....what do you think the US is going to be like in 10 years?

Quoting 139. RitaEvac:

Curious of some opinions on here....what do you think the US is going to be like in 10 years?




Warmer
Quoting 138. win1gamegiantsplease:

Not sure if it got through, here's to try 2

NAM says nada :(





All about that Brunswick stew, pintos, and cornbread my friend. I miss Carter Bros.


MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1126 AM EST THU JAN 05 2017


Excerpt:

THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A GREATER PHASING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE TILT TROF AND THEREFORE IS DRAWN NORTH/EAST MORE AND MAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. THIS IS A KNOWN NEGATIVE BIAS OF THE NAM AND THEREFORE IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. AT THIS POINT A NON-NAM BLEND IS PREFERRED TRYING TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CAMPS...THOUGH WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARD THE FLATTER FASTER SOLUTIONS IN WEIGHTING.
# 135

Circumventing elected officials via a appointed Emg City Manager decree was the first clue to the rights war on Democracy. Ethics almost got wacked this week with smirks that went to O' snap looks in a heartbeat. The Public blow back was swift and final.

People are seeing the Plan unfold before them.

Also, no one hears a beep about Benghazi,Nor Certain E-mails anymore as well.

Ever wunder why dat is?


Their fall will be great,et al.


"Dab Dat"





Quoting 140. win1gamegiantsplease:



Warmer


The Human caused Climate Change that is warming the Globe rapidly continues,

unabated.

Quoting 101. daddyjames:

China Makes Major Investment In Renewable Power Generation
China will plow 2.5 trillion yuan ($361 billion) into renewable power generation by 2020, the country’s energy agency said on Thursday, as the world’s largest energy market continues to shift away from dirty coal power towards cleaner fuels.

The investment will create over 13 million jobs in the sector, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said in a blueprint document that lays out its plan to develop the nation’s energy sector during the five-year 2016 to 2020 period.

The NEA said installed renewable power capacity including wind, hydro, solar and nuclear power will contribute to about half of new electricity generation by 2020.

The agency did not disclose more details on where the funds, which equate to about $72 billion each year, would be spent.

Still, the investment reflects Beijing’s continued focus on curbing the use of fossil fuels, which have fostered the country’s economic growth over the past decade, as it ramps up its war on pollution.



I'm glad China are continuing to invest heavily in renewables. There's also some great news coming out of India too:

India's double first in climate battle

Two world-leading clean energy projects have opened in the south Indian state of Tamil Nadu.

A £3m industrial plant is capturing the CO2 emissions from a coal boiler and using the CO2 to make valuable chemicals. It is a world first.

And just 100km away is the world's biggest solar farm, making power for 150,000 homes on a 10 sq km site.

The industrial plant appears especially significant as it offers a breakthrough by capturing CO2 without subsidy.

Built at a chemical plant in the port city of Tuticorin, it is projected to save 60,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions a year by incorporating them into the recipes for baking soda and other chemicals.

Link

Quoting 120. Patrap:




He's on His way now Sir'...





Drupal? Oh dear. I hope your devs have previous experience dealing with that unwieldy beast. It has a wee bit of learning cliff, at the base of which lies the crushed and mangled bodies of many a developer who thought it but an easy climb.
Coworker and I were just discussing about 10 years from now. Corporatism, inflation, economy, rich taking all the money, middle class dissapearing, penisions, social security. At some point we are gonna have economic fallout. Climate change will help with that too. Younger generation is in debt, cost of living thru the roof....might have to have "National Walk Out Day" where everybody doesn't go into work and shut the system down and implode corporations profits and stocks. Then and by only then will you start seeing changes.
Quoting 94. RitaEvac:



Most people are out on the weekends....at least in my part of the world in SE TX.....BOOMING POPULATION AND MARKET DOWN HERE


Yes. I drove down through your area a couple of months ago. Much of the land has been concreted over in your area and they are still pouring concrete. The same is happening west of Houston and north of Houston. Even more so than before. The San Jacinto river seems to a barrier towards such rapid development east of Houston. I am glad that I live just east of the San Jac.
Quoting 141. nrtiwlnvragn:



MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1126 AM EST THU JAN 05 2017


Excerpt:

THE 12Z NAM SHOWS A GREATER PHASING WITH THE DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE TILT TROF AND THEREFORE IS DRAWN NORTH/EAST MORE AND MAKES THE SURFACE LOW WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING. THIS IS A KNOWN NEGATIVE BIAS OF THE NAM AND THEREFORE IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE BLEND. AT THIS POINT A NON-NAM BLEND IS PREFERRED TRYING TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CAMPS...THOUGH WILL FAVOR MORE TOWARD THE FLATTER FASTER SOLUTIONS IN WEIGHTING.


A faster low would probably give us a nice 34° rainstorm. Please slow down NAM! Makes the forecast confidence for me a little better..
According to the NWS, they got down to 29F last night out on Woodley Island. The record is 28F, set in 1890. Looks like we have another shot for the record tonight.
The little area of low presure out to the west looks more moisture laden than what the models were suggesting.Then again I could be day dreaming.Light s**w has broken out in the area but that is nothing to get to excited over.
Quoting 106. ricderr:



Also, there is no realistic way Trump can do away with the EPA. Congress would have to authorize it and even under Republican control that is highly unlikely to happen.


Do you not remember the 104th Congress when Rep. Tom Delay tried to eliminate the Clean Air Act, The Clean Water Act, the EPA and OSHA? He could not get enough support to do so, but he did manage to get the funding cuts that limited the EPA's and OSHA's ability to carry out their responsibilities. Starting on January 20, 2017 there will be a new leadership set in place and many of the Cabinet posts being filled is by people that have long stood on destroying what they will now likely head. Do not so easily pass off that it has been tried before and failed. As they say, this is a new day.
Quoting 134. win1gamegiantsplease:

Possibly virga going on in NC/VA right now? I'd link a radar pic but I'm afraid the blog will shred it.


If there is, it isn't where I am (near Charlotte Airport)
Seems ric been skipping that wu daily briefing again.


Cut Him some slack.

: P


San Bernardino County(the large one) is looking much improved...
156. bwi
Quoting 122. LAbonbon:

The U.S.'s first offshore wind farm, Block Island Wind Farm, began operating last month.



But we still lag well behind other countries: List of offshore wind farms




Looks beautiful to me! And more offshore platforms good for fisherman and diving too!
Quoting 139. RitaEvac:

Curious of some opinions on here....what do you think the US is going to be like in 10 years?




We were playing straight Poker before. There are going to be too many wild cards in the deck now to predict how any hand will play out going forward. .... No. I never played Poker before. Why do you ask?
Quoting 139. RitaEvac:

Curious of some opinions on here....what do you think the US is going to be like in 10 years?



revolution - hopefully non-violent- but there always come a time when the rabble revolt. Sorta why you need a strong middle-class to retain long term socio-political rule regardless of form of government one chooses.
wx more extremes in more unlikely places , oh and who can forget the great arctic oil spill of 2025.
Quoting 147. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Yes. I drove down through your area a couple of months ago. Much of the land has been concreted over in your area and they are still pouring concrete. The same is happening west of Houston and north of Houston. Even more so than before. The San Jacinto river seems to a barrier towards such rapid development east of Houston. I am glad that I live just east of the San Jac.


Near FM 646 where NWS is? yea League City is now over 100,000+ population and planning to hit 200,000 in future. It's unreal. Nothing but stores, restaurants, subdivisions and concrete. All for profit by corporations. Houston about to merge with Galveston similar to Dallas/Fort Worth. Were all about to be a megaplex.
Yup looks like a very near miss for us. Someone east of I-95 in central NC is going to get a bunch of snow.

Quoting 87. win1gamegiantsplease:

Hey, rainbows didn't make the list!

Anyway, latest NAM keeps frozen precip north of ILM :(

But I guess if that means no ice that's all right
Quoting 151. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you not remember the 104th Congress when Rep. Tom Delay tried to eliminate the Clean Air Act, The Clean Water Act, the EPA and OSHA? He could not get enough support to do so, but he did manage to get the funding cuts that limited the EPA's and OSHA's ability to carry out their responsibilities. Starting on January 20, 2017 there will be a new leadership set in place and many of the Cabinet posts being filled is by people that have long stood on destroying what they will now likely head. Do not so easily pass off that it has been tried before and failed. As they say, this is a new day.


Do not under estimate the power of the people...;)
Quoting 124. washingaway:


That is so ugly. I sure hope I can't see that from the golf course.

Think that's ugly? Wait for the massive seawalls coming over the next few decades.
Quoting 159. RitaEvac:



Near FM 646 where NWS is? yea League City is now over 100,000+ population and planning to hit 200,000 in future. It's unreal. Nothing but stores, restaurants, subdivisions and concrete. All for profit by corporations. Houston about to merge with Galveston similar to Dallas/Fort Worth. Were all about to be a megaplex.


I was mostly along NASA RD. 1 and San Leon Rd.. Weaving back and forth between I-45 and Hwy. 146. Looking for new places to eat and following grandkids to sporting events. I think that it was in Dickenson where my granddaughter played in the volleyball tournament. Big, new school and a sports arena that looked bigger than the rest of the school. The indoor sports arena was huge.
Quoting 118. washingaway:


Why does it always have to be after the disaster? Warnings are abundant, but it's wait until it happens, always after. Prevention is the key, not cleanup.


I agree. Prevention - not clean up.
(sigh) Its human nature. (period)
Yea that is a strong statement but from Katrina, to those who stayed in Lebanon in 1977, to Jews with wealth living in Germany who could leave but did not. some could not leave. To those who stayed in Boston before the shelling began in 1777. To the Vikings who stayed in Greenland thinking the weather would get better, then died out. I've been shown many examples.

You see we have to believe the future will be like the past, the good past, else no one would plant crops. No one would take out loans if they thought their job was at risk. No one would get married if they thought things would not work out. Yes the future can be better. Yes people can make it better.

In my opinion, the problem is folks do not enjoy disasters. If they did, they would prepare to rid out "snowmagedden" in comfort where they could be volunteers, not victims.

Secondly its much easier to do nothing. These sound like opposit expressions "Its too big for me to do" and "there is nothing anyone can do" and "Its the government's job to do that" Sadly they all mean the individual is free from doing anything. That is a very easy place to go.

Instead the scary place is my place. "I can prepare". I can affect climate change. I can make things better. It is better to suffer the slings and arrows of mockery before hand than be another victim afterwards.
If of interest: Indivisible
As long as middle class keeps buying and buying and buying, and wining and dining and buying everything on the shelves....they just gonna keep building and building and building, and concreting into oblivion. The rich look around and say "hmmm, they must have $$$...keep jacking the prices up and keep on building everything for these consuming fools that they are" and laugh all the way to the bank.

Quoting 154. Patrap:




Ironic that Virginia Beach has so much sand, but so few sand trucks. Two inches will close them down.

AKQ - Wakefield is estimating six inches of snow. They can laugh at monster hurricanes or making the top ten nuclear target sites (no source, local lore only) but tremble at light snow.
Quoting 116. JeffMasters:



Sorry for the continued problems with the blogs. The admins are looking at it again, but the issue is difficult to resolve since we are transitioning to serving our pages from a 3rd-party source (Amazon Web Services) that doesn't give us the sort of diagnostics we need to really dig into the issue. In the longer term, we are committed to junking the entire blog software system in about three months, and will transition to a 3rd party blog software system called Drupal.

Jeff Masters
Drupal? Oh bother.. have experience with this and it's a developers dream. It has a ton of bells and whistles but takes an engineer to maintain and trouble shoot. If you can minimize any custom modules you will come out a lot better. Why not just use WordPress?
Quoting 161. RitaEvac:



Do not under estimate the power of the people...;)


Yes, this is true. I am now becoming more fearful of the people than I am of the government.
Quoting 145. Xyrus2000:



Drupal? Oh dear. I hope your devs have previous experience dealing with that unwieldy beast. It has a wee bit of learning cliff, at the base of which lies the crushed and mangled bodies of many a developer who thought it but an easy climb.
+1000000000
Deleted a duplicate post that mysteriously appeared while I was not looking.
172. bwi
As bad as the consecutive annual temp records, the air pollution, the coral bleaching, and the various floods and hurricanes were, I think one of the most consequential events of 2016 was the sea ice loss. If Antarctica turns out NOT to have been an outlier, but instead a harbinger of much warmer Southern Ocean, we're in for a world of hurt much sooner than expected. If this year's situation in the south IS just an outlier, we're still in for a world of hurt, but perhaps not so quickly.

EDIT. To be clearer, I'm worried about Arctic Sea Ice (and Arctic temps in general) because of the potential impact on Northern Hemisphere weather, jet stream 2.0 etc.

The issue with Antarctic sea ice isn't the seasonal floating ice (which largely grows and melts each year), but rather with the floating ice shelves and the glaciers to which they're attached and which they hold back. If ice shelves retreat and reach higher cliff heights, further collapsing could accelerate. And if the warm water gets deep underneath the glaciers themselves, their grounding lines could retreat in a bigger hurry and they could speed up much more rapidly. That could change global and regional sea surface levels in big way in my lifetime and many of yours.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/12/28/global-wa rming-2016-arctic-spin/



New story on wood pellets as a low-carbon emission alternative for power plants; great article on the pros and cons but appalling in terms of potential deforestation across the board.................Bad Idea in my opinion and the last nail in the coffin of Mother Nature (deplete the underground resources [coal and oil] and lets move back above ground again after the trees now............................................... ....

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/wood-green -source-energy-scientists-are-divided


Over the roar of the logging, Bob Abt, a forest economist at North Carolina State University (NC State) in Raleigh, explains why this trans-Atlantic trade in wood pellets is booming: a push by policymakers, industry groups, and some scientists to make burning more wood for electricity a strategy for curbing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Unlike coal or natural gas, they argue, wood is a low-carbon fuel. The carbon released when trees are cut down and burned is taken up again when new trees grow in their place, limiting its impact on climate.


We got into this "winter" pattern if you can call it that about 6-8 weeks earlier than we should have......I can only imagine what the place will look like by May.

Quoting 166. RitaEvac:

As long as middle class keeps buying and buying and buying, and wining and dining and buying everything on the shelves....they just gonna keep building and building and building, and concreting into oblivion. The rich look around and say "hmmm, they must have $$$...keep jacking the prices up and keep on building everything for these consuming fools that they are" and laugh all the way to the bank.



We call it kongcrete down ere.
Quoting 174. weathermanwannabe:

New story on wood pellets as a low-carbon emission alternative for power plants; great article on the pros and cons but appalling in terms of potential deforestation across the board.................Bad Idea in my opinion and the last nail in the coffin of Mother Nature (deplete the underground resources [coal and oil] and lets move back above ground again after the trees now............................................... ....

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/wood-green -source-energy-scientists-are-divided


Over the roar of the logging, Bob Abt, a forest economist at North Carolina State University (NC State) in Raleigh, explains why this trans-Atlantic trade in wood pellets is booming: a push by policymakers, industry groups, and some scientists to make burning more wood for electricity a strategy for curbing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Unlike coal or natural gas, they argue, wood is a low-carbon fuel. The carbon released when trees are cut down and burned is taken up again when new trees grow in their place, limiting its impact on climate.


Excerpt from the article E.U. loophole counts wood energy as “carbon neutral.” It’s not.:

As American foresters ramp up logging to meet the growing demand for wood pellets by power plants on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, a new European wood energy proposal would allow the power plants to continue claiming their operations are green for at least 13 more years, despite releasing more heat-trapping pollution than coal.

[...]

The proposed rules were released just a few months after the commission released a 361-page warning about the risks to the climate and American wildlife from the growing use of wood in the continent’s power plants.

“They’re acknowledging that there’s an issue there, but they’re not taking immediate action,” said David Carr, an attorney with the Southern Environmental Law Center, which is one of the environmental groups in Europe and the U.S. uniting in a campaign to oppose most wood energy. They have been pushing for new rules that could halt the use of subsidized wood for electricity in Europe after 2020. “It’s a big disappointment.”

A Climate Central analysis last year found that switching from coal to wood increased carbon dioxide emissions at Drax power station in rural England by 15 to 20 percent for each megawatt produced

Yet Drax doesn’t have to count those emissions as climate pollution, nor does it have to pay the carbon fees owed when fossil fuels are burned. Cutting down trees to produce so-called biomass energy also reduces a forest’s ability to absorb carbon dioxide. Producing and shipping the pellets worsens climate impacts — and those are the only climate impacts from wood energy for which Drax is held accountable by European authorities.
179. bwi
Monthly temp rankings north of 70degrees (Arctic) at 925mb (graphic by Zach Labe)
Can't wait

Quoting 139. RitaEvac:

Curious of some opinions on here....what do you think the US is going to be like in 10 years?




After we eat our Soylent (now with vitamin LSD!), watch The Running Man and The Hunger Games, no one will care!
Quoting 180. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can't wait




A little bit to the south, please
Quoting 122. LAbonbon:

The U.S.'s first offshore wind farm, Block Island Wind Farm, began operating last month.



But we still lag well behind other countries: List of offshore wind farms




Not surprised to see Germany but I never knew the UK was so dominant. Very impressive. Also surprised about the dearth of Dutch wind farms.
184. MahFL
Quoting 139. RitaEvac:

Curious of some opinions on here....what do you think the US is going to be like in 10 years?




Everything that is bad will be slightly worse.
Quoting 165. daddyjames:

If of interest: Indivisible

I AM THE MAJORITY! That's my slogan for 2017, and if I get enough notoriety I think I'll go with legendary since notorious is already taken.
Looks like miserable Saturday for SE coast



Residents in Baton Rouge, La., cleaning out flood damaged homes in August. Credit Max Becherer for The New York Times

Scientists See Push From Climate Change in Louisiana Flooding
By HENRY FOUNTAIN SEPT. 7, 2016


Climate change has increased the likelihood of torrential downpours along the Gulf Coast like those that led to deadly floods in southern Louisiana last month, scientists said Wednesday.

Using historical records of rainfall and computer models that simulate climate, the researchers, including several from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, found that global warming increased the chances of such intense rains in the region by at least 40 percent.

“But it’s probably much closer to a doubling of the probability” of such an event, or a 100 percent increase, said Heidi Cullen, chief scientist for Climate Central, the research organization that coordinated the study. “Climate change played a very clear and quantifiable role,” she added.

A storm carrying large amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico stalled over southern Louisiana in mid-August, bringing several days of apocalyptic rain — up to two feet in 48 hours — that caused record flooding in Baton Rouge and elsewhere. The authorities said 13 people were killed and about 55,000 homes and 6,000 businesses were damaged in what is now considered the nation’s worst natural disaster since Hurricane Sandy, the storm that hit the Northeast in 2012.

Gov. John Bel Edwards, who was forced to flee the flooding with his family, said damage was expected to be close to $9 billion.

Climate scientists have long said that a warming atmosphere and oceans should lead to more intense and frequent rainstorms, because there will be greater evaporation, and warmer air holds more moisture. But until recent years most scientists have said it was not possible to link any single event to climate change.

“Hurricanes, frontal systems, thunderstorms — there are so many different ways to get a lot of precipitation” in the region, Dr. van der Wiel said. “It’s very important that the models realistically represent the weather.”

World Weather Attribution has conducted several similar studies in the past two years, including one earlier this year that linked floods in France in April to climate change. But the Louisiana study was the most difficult one yet because of the many factors involved for the Gulf Coast, said Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, a member of the team from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

This was the first time that NOAA has participated in a rapid attribution study. Monica Allen, a NOAA spokeswoman, said the agency would consider taking part in future studies. “Researchers, communities and businesses alike see the value in these analyses,” she said. “They help us grapple with what has happened and strengthen our ability to stay resilient to future events.”

Barry D. Keim, Louisiana’s state climatologist and a professor at Louisiana State University, said that while he was not familiar with World Weather Attribution’s methods, “I’m just not convinced that we can attribute any single event to climate change.” Nonetheless, he said, “there are some general consistencies between this event and climate change.”

Follow Henry Fountain on Twitter: @henryfountain

Like the Science Times page on Facebook. | Sign up for the Science Times newsletter.

Quoting 186. nrtiwlnvragn:

Looks like miserable Saturday for SE coast





Will be supervising the snow and smoking a giant hunk of pork. #SnowGrilling
Quoting 186. nrtiwlnvragn:

Looks like miserable Saturday for SE coast





👎
Quoting 180. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can't wait




Am I color blind or is Va beach in the "12 to 18" inches zone ?

If folks see this even the soy milk will be gone from grocery store shelves :)
Quoting 161. RitaEvac:



Do not under estimate the power of the people...;)
Of further interest: Votesmart.org

Quoting 180. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can't wait


You would have loved February 1989, my freshman year at ODU. Snowiest month in the history of Norfolk. We had 15.4" on Feb 17-19, and 9.0" on Feb 23-24. Where on the list do you expect this storm to end up?
Quoting 188. Pipewhale:



Will be supervising the snow and smoking a giant hunk of pork. #SnowGrilling

Been busy and the blog has been busted so here is my late 2016 weather highlights for Acme, WA.
Total precipitation: 71.3"
Snow total: 12"
Hottest day: Aug 18th, 88°
Coldest day: Dec 18th 10°

My wife and I set a personal goal for 2016 of hiking 40,000 vertical feet as we both turned 40. We ended up finishing our year on snowshoes at Table Mtn with a total of 54,000' in 210 miles.

Wishing you all the best in this new year.

Quoting 186. nrtiwlnvragn:

Looks like miserable Saturday for SE coast




Not to mention central California where we're looking for the greatest precipitation event since at least 2005.
172. bwi
8:02 PM GMT on January 05, 2017
10
As bad as the consecutive annual temp records, the air pollution, the coral bleaching, and the various floods and hurricanes were, I think one of the most consequential events of 2016 was the sea ice loss. If Antarctica turns out NOT to have been an outlier, but instead a harbinger of much warmer Southern Ocean, we're in for a world of hurt much sooner than expected. If this year's situation in the south IS just an outlier, we're still in for a world of hurt, but perhaps not so quickly.


About 15,000 years ago, the ocean around Antarctica has seen an abrupt sea level rise of several meters. It could happen again. An international team of scientists with the participation of the University of Bonn is now reporting its findings in the magazine Scientific Reports.

University of Bonn's climate researcher Michael E. Weber is a member of the study group. He says, "The changes that are currently taking place in a disturbing manner resemble those 14,700 years ago." At that time, changes in atmospheric-oceanic circulation led to a stratification in the ocean with a cold layer at the surface and a warm layer below. Under such conditions, ice sheets melt more strongly than when the surrounding ocean is thoroughly mixed. This is exactly what is presently happening around the Antarctic.

Read more at: Link
Quoting 196. BayFog:


Not to mention central California where we're looking for the greatest precipitation event since at least 2005.



Ya, first time I have seen this in a forecast.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE COULD PILE UP 15"+ LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD, WITH SNOW TOTALS MEASURED IN YARDS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
Quoting 175. 19N81W:



We got into this "winter" pattern if you can call it that about 6-8 weeks earlier than we should have......I can only imagine what the place will look like by May.



It would be very impressive to have the greek-letter storms by June (start of season).
195. plantmoretrees

Congratulations on your photo making World View
201. vis0
Quoting 22. Klipperweather:

PM 2.5 is not
as toxic as cigarette smoke, because cigarette smoke has a lot of ill
effects from classes of chemicals that are orders of magnitude more
present in cigarette smoke than in PM 2.5.
Quoting 28. Xyrus2000:



You apparently did not read the entire entry, nor it's implications.

Particulate matter (PM) is just a singular component of smog, and the health effects depend on WHAT the particles are. In the case of smog such as that found in China and India, it's particulate matter from burning uncatalyzed fossil fuels, agricultural wastes, factory emissions, etc. This creates a toxic mixture of ozone, partially burned hydrocarbons, fly ash, etc. which ends up having about a similar toxic exposure as the proffered two packs of cigarettes if not more so.

Even IF the smog did not contain toxic materials, long term exposure to elevated particulates has been shown to lead to chronic lung issues, cardiac issues, and elevated chances of cancer. Add in all the toxic crap those cities are throwing into the air and it just makes it that much worse.

But hey, soon we'll get to test that science ourselves!
...again...cause its up to all to learn from what those before us learned so all do not waste time, money...again...


whole other subject...
(speaking of again as posted last Nov 2016, and just skimmed by saw Labonbon post.
i think IBM wants to make sure that whatever you post you read carefully.   i (others too)  noticed since last Oct 2016 one really has to click preview, actually [preview then post. 2nd Servers need to see which settings are on as in 0, 1, 2 (some go to 5) as to commands as in auto , no , yes on server versions of the 'ol +PMH, PCW onHold type points that when it has a misconfiguration  (be it via triggers (hackers)  or manually) cause bottle-necking but i could be 99.9% wrong though i'm finally learning how to walk and chew gum at 2 mph.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
255 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

GAZ039-050-051-060>062-072-073-080>083-089>095-10 2>104-061000-
Wilkes-Greene-Taliaferro-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Jo nes-Baldwin-
Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-Muscogee-Chattahooche e-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Stewart-Webster-Sumter-
255 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...

Confidence is increasing for a widespread winter precipitation
event to occur generally after midnight Friday night through
Saturday morning. South of a line from Franklin to Forsyth to
Lexington, accumulations are expected to be an inch of snow or
less. For this area, no watch, warning, or advisory has been
issued at this time due to the uncertainty of the location of the
southern edge of the accumulations. Stay alert to changes in the
forecast, particularly through Friday evening as information may
change.

At this time, this is what can be expected:

* LOCATIONS...portions of central Georgia, generally south of a
line from Franklin to Forsyth to Lexington.

* HAZARD TYPES...Rain, Sleet or Snow mix transitioning to Snow.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Up to 1 inch.

* TIMING...Rain will transition to a wintry mix late Friday night
over west central Georgia, and then spread eastward through
Saturday morning. As colder air moves in, a transition to all
snow or mostly snow will occur early Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads and bridges may become slick making travel
hazardous. Wet surfaces will freeze as temperatures drop below
freezing Saturday morning.

* TEMPERATURES...Friday evening temperatures will be in the upper
30s to mid 40s. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to
low 30s by Saturday morning. Highs Saturday afternoon will
slowly rise into the mid to upper 30s.

$$
Quoting 181. cynyc2:



After we eat our Soylent (now with vitamin LSD!), watch The Running Man and The Hunger Games, no one will care!


Speaking of the Hunger Games, I live in the Capital. (gwv DC metro resident]
BTW another cold snap here in Acme. Clear and beautiful outside but im stuck on the couch. Just had my wisdom teeth pulled this morning so I'm a little sore and a bit dazed...not to mention cold.



Storm over the weekend will resolve the Pacific 500 mb flow to zonal by Monday, with numerous upstream systems headed into California.
206. vis0

Quoting 69. weathermanwannabe:

We have seen this before, it's called the "Dark Age"......................................
sequels are never as enlightening as the original
...oh oh, social spaghettiOOs
Biggest surprise in 2017 may be this, with possible huge effects worldwide:

One of Earth's Most Dangerous Supervolcanoes Is Rumbling
Link
Quoting 198. nrtiwlnvragn:



Ya, first time I have seen this in a forecast.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE COULD PILE UP 15"+ LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD, WITH SNOW TOTALS MEASURED IN YARDS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

That kind of dump will help slow the demise of the handful of Sierra glaciers, all of which are already mostly hardpack snowfields.
Hot off the press GFS sneaux FL. version. Gulf effect snow flurries and sleet a definite possibility.

About to bug out for day, we've been holding at 15 most of the day in S C IL, a little dip to 13 while 2nd light snow band came through mid morning. Around 2" of light fluffy snow overall. Single digit lows coming next two mornings, low teen high tomorrow. 20s for weekend highs. Then shoot back up next week, roads will pay if we get much more of this yo-yo, as if not bad enough already. Pressure has turned back up and N-NW winds have lightened up a little more. Interesting year '16 in so many ways, hope for better in '17, but not holding my breath.
Quoting 158. lat25five:


revolution - hopefully non-violent- but there always come a time when the rabble revolt. Sorta why you need a strong middle-class to retain long term socio-political rule regardless of form of government one chooses.
wx more extremes in more unlikely places , oh and who can forget the great arctic oil spill of 2025.


The US will feel the increasing impacts of a destabilizing climate. That's a simple fact.

Other than that, it appears we're in some sort of basket and it's starting to get rather warm.
Update on blog errors: The "There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later or check the requested URL." error should be corrected now. This was caused by a subset of WWW servers having a faulty mount point. The "getting rainbowed" error still persists, and may not get solved until mid-month, when a major software migration is completed.

Jeff Masters
213. vis0

Quoting 185. washingaway:


I AM THE MAJORITY! That's my slogan for 2017, and if I get enough notoriety I think I'll go with legendary since notorious is already taken.
There's gonna be a-lot of remainders left (and on the right) out of the equation.


i'll take stuipidendthis 'cause the GREAT fabricator is already taken.
Quoting 209. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hot off the press GFS sneaux FL. version. Gulf effect snow flurries and sleet a definite possibility.





We'll have to wait and see. The GOM will definitely be providing moisture to the system at higher levels but I doubt at the surface levels during the best chance for ice/snow across the Panhandle region.
I think the winds will most likely be out of the NW (blowing offshore - not onshore) at the surface when it's icing up/snowing in the Panhandle.

True lake effect or Ocean effect you have cold air at the lower levels blowing across relatively warmer water. Not sure if there will be that setup.

Just out, the situation is tenuous.

 
Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
456 PM CST Thu Jan 5 2017

..winter mix of precipitation followed by widespread hard freeze
and freeze conditions and very cold wind chill temperatures
expected to develop Friday into the weekend...

Short term...
strong layer lift being produced by a healthy 130 to 140 knot
upper subtropical jet has set the stage for deepening cloud mass
profiles, and light rain begin to break out from southeast Texas into
central la and southwest MS today. This area will spread farther
east and wider in coverage through tonight.

The cold front that is expected to bring the problems has been
slowly pushing south across the Southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley today. The front will move southward through
the area late tonight and early Friday. Temperatures will
progressively fall through the 40s into the 30s over areas north
and west of Lake Pontchartrain during the day Friday. The depth
of the cold air at the surface will be about 2500' with a strong
deep warm nose above during the daytime hours. The front will
also help the lifting process at the surface. This along with the
dynamic draw due to the upper jet processes will enhance rainfall
in a very efficient isentropic lift process. This light to
moderate rainfall will couple with a continued surge of dry air at
the surface to cause a strong wet bulb effect.

The cold air will be too shallow at first to cause any wintry
precipitation Friday morning, but as the day progresses this will
change. The lowest layers should cool and become deep enough to
begin observing sleet mixing with rain Friday afternoon across
southwest Mississippi and possibly the east central Louisiana
parishes northwest of Baton Rouge, and there is a chance
temperatures could drop to around 32f and result in freezing
rain. This process should begin between noon and 3pm Friday over
the northern most areas of the cwa. Sleet will become more likely
as the late afternoon progresses, as the models indicate
temperatures around 925 mb drop from +1c to +3c down to -2c to -4c
between noon and 6 PM across the northwest portions of the
forecast area. After sunset, the surface will have cooled enough
to begin observing some mixing of freezing rain and sleet a bit
farther south into east central Louisiana and Pearl River County
through about midnight Friday night. The moisture begins to lift
out of the area after midnight Friday night so the amount of time
wintry precip will fall could be as much as 8 hours for any
particular location north of the area from Pointe Coupee Parish to
northern Pearl River County, but more brief over the areas to the
south that take longer to drop into the lower 30s at the surface.
The change over as the column cools should be from rain mixing
with and changing to freezing rain mixed with sleet, and a brief
window of sleet changing over to very light snow (snow flurries)
before ending as the moisture pulls out late Friday night.


A Winter Weather Advisory was issued shortly after 2 PM today, and 
effective from noon Friday through midnight Friday night across
areas of the upper Florida parishes into southwest and south
central MS and Pearl River County, MS. Icing of bridges and
overpasses will be possible during the precipitation and possibly
afterwards as well (black ice) as poorer drained Road surfaces
drop below freezing before wind and drier air evaporate the
moisture.

Accumulations are not expected to be large but there is the
potential to see several locations in southwest Mississippi with
up to an 1/10th inch of ice mainly on elevated structures, trees
and power lines Friday night into early Saturday morning. Even
though this is a small amount, it can and likely will cause
issues especially for travel. Areas just to the south of the
advisory area will have to be monitored in case colder
temperatures move in quicker and/or precipitation takes longer to
clear out. This will be evaluated with later forecasts tonight and
Friday morning. Mostly minor sleet accumulation is expected.

Going through late Friday night and the weekend, the main concern
will shift to freezing temperatures and very cold wind chill
readings.

Some areas south of I-10 and Lake Pontchartrain in 
southeast Louisiana may experience their first freeze of the
season early Saturday morning, but more likely Saturday night and
Sunday morning as the coldest air of the winter season invades the
region. A hard freeze is imminent with lows forecast to reach the
lower to mid 20s across northern areas with some mid 20s even
possible over some southern areas that aren't protected by marine
influences.

Metro New Orleans will likely see lows in the upper 
20s. Factoring in brisk north winds, wind chill readings are
forecast to plunge down to values ranging from the teens to the
lower 20s Saturday morning, and repeating these values again
Saturday night through mid morning Sunday. Freeze and hard freeze
warnings will be necessary and wind chill advisories could be
needed.
Most of the world's reefs will suffer annual coral bleaching within 26 years but the Great Barrier Reef will be hit much later if carbon emission targets are met, a new study says.

The University of Miami research predicts which reefs will be hit first by annual coral bleaching based on global climate models.
It shows, on average, the world's reefs will be start suffering annual coral bleaching in 2043.

It suggests reefs in Taiwan and around the Turks and Caicos archipelago would be among the first to suffer the phenomenon, which occurs when live corals become stressed from overheating and causes them to turn white.


Link


Remember this Link
2014 Lake Effect Snow Event across western New York.
More river flooding - these are forecasted stage levels. Question for anyone - what specifically does 'danger level' mean in regards to flood stage?



(Source)
221. vis0

Quoting 161. RitaEvac:



Do not under estimate the power of the people...;)

...that get up and show their numbers otherwise dems just words.

 proof:: notice the people that got up and acted like they were the majority while the actual majority cared less. The pho-majority didn't play by the rules (though to be honest political rules are not written in stone and meant to be bent ...like a pretzel) yet that active minority acted like a majority and -waAh ...waaAH! ...

(hmm regurgitated cheddar cheese "stomach-acid-aged" myum myum 

..."won" by the rules.


Quoting 183. wxgeek723:



Not surprised to see Germany but I never knew the UK was so dominant. Very impressive. Also surprised about the dearth of Dutch wind farms.

I didn't know that about the UK either. Regarding the Dutch - they have them - List of offshore wind farms in the Netherlands. What I linked before was the Wiki page showing the largest offshore wind farms in the world. Also, if you scroll down on the first page I linked, it shows large offshore wind farms that are in the planning stages; the Netherlands has a large one (1,400 MW) planned. That's considerably larger than any currently operating or under construction. (Sweden and South Korea have even larger ones planned.)
Falcons, Drones, Data: A
Winery Battles Climate Change
Jackson Family Wines of Sonoma, Calif., is among
winemakers employing both high-tech and old-school
techniques to adapt to hotter, drier conditions.



The Jacksons are going beyond the usual drought-mitigation measures. They are using owls and falcons, to go after pests drawn by the milder winters. They are finding new ways to capture rainfall. And since fossil-fuel consumption is one of the biggest drivers of climate change, they are trying to become more energy efficient, in part through the use of old-school farming techniques.

Link
The Netherlands also has huge domestic gas reserves, relative to their economy. They may not need much windpower.
Quoting 212. JeffMasters:

Update on blog errors: The "There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later or check the requested URL." error should be corrected now. This was caused by a subset of WWW servers having a faulty mount point. The "getting rainbowed" error still persists, and may not get solved until mid-month, when a major software migration is completed.

Jeff Masters
My mood blogging when the wunderblogs are unstable:

Anyone here have experience linking Wunderphotos to these comments? WU-mail me, or comment here, I don't care.
What It’s Like to Live Where It’s Not Even Safe to Breathe

It was a 20-minute walk from one New Year’s Day gathering to the other, but none of us wanted to risk it. Outside, Beijing was smothered in the worst smog of the winter, so that every breath, even behind my filtered mask, had the sour chemical taste of a freshly bleached bathroom. We saw the red “For Hire” sign of the cab through the haze and bundled in.
Half the invitees had begged off from the party, preferring the relative safety of sealed apartments to attempting to find somewhere amid the poison dust. Others had the perma-cold that grips many of us in northern Chinese winters, with sore throats that are unable to heal. The last new year I’d spent 40 minutes searching for a friend’s apartment block that I’d been to a half-dozen times before, unable to make out any landmarks amid the haze. Beijing city blocks are undistinguishable even on clear days, but now they were just smudges of thicker gray.


Link
Click on your image and post the address in the image link. Be sure to change https to http.

So if we can still get "rainbowed" if everybody commented in the rainbow blog then page reload (F5) would always work?
Quoting 225. BaltimoreBrian:

My mood blogging when the wunderblogs are unstable:



what's the little demon writing?
LAbonbon, the top word 'hodie' is Latin for 'today'. Not sure what the second word is.
233. Tcwx2
I live in Covington County in south Alabama; I sure hope to see some sleet/snow tomorrow night!
Quoting 209. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hot off the press GFS sneaux FL. version. Gulf effect snow flurries and sleet a definite possibility.


Quoting 232. BaltimoreBrian:

LAbonbon, the top word 'hodie' is Latin for 'today'. Not sure what the second word is.


nonos = ninth. So, ninth day
Lately I feel more and more like this guy -
Sculpting mashed potatoes with my fork, except it's not the off planet aliens that have me by the throat .
It's the home grown ones, hunting ever greater piles of money.
A complete fiction of the mind of man .
There is no money in the geological record, it doesn't appear in the ice cores. Some how I can't image that we are about to trade the Earth for 40 pieces of sliver. All built on an ever expanding series of capitalistic balloons , each of which always pop.
Maybe that's why I'm in my house coat playing in my mashed potatoes.

Well, that worked just swimmingly. This is my usual experience posting photos here.
Quoting 173. Xandra:




Quoting 236. oldnewmex:


Well, that worked just swimmingly.
Open your image in a new tab, grab the link code and nix the "s" in the 'https' the link should look similar to this:
http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/j/J NFlori30A/133.jpg
Quoting 236. oldnewmex:


Well, that worked just swimmingly. This is my usual experience posting photos here.


Right click on the photo and open it up in a new tab. Copy that address as the photo.
It's not whether believe in global warming. It's whether you understand it.

No workey.
242. bwi
Snow hole for DC area. Nuts.
Quoting 241. oldnewmex:


No workey.


Try to right-click the photo, click Properties, and copy the Address/URL link as a pic. This last link seemed to be a photo summary page, not a specific pic.

JR
Quoting 241. oldnewmex:


No workey.


Is this the one?

Awareness?....it's like....well, being aware. Now if you'll excuse me, I going back to my bubble in which I live.
We're gonna see some actual Winter here .


Blogs seem to be working a little better.

Managed to put together an entry mostly on the Southeast Snow Coming..
The Surface Low is forming





Quoting 233. Tcwx2:

I live in Covington County in south Alabama; I sure hope to see some sleet/snow tomorrow night!
It looks like your county is included in a Winter Weather Advisory issued by the NWS out of Mobile.



Here is a list of towns and cities included in the advisory:

CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...GROVE HILL...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENV ILLE...
BRANTLEY...LUVERNE...WAYNESBORO...BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...
RICHTON...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
306 PM CST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND
SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO MISSISSIPPI TO CAMDEN ALABAMA LINE AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET...AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO IMPACT LOCATIONS NORTH OF A JANICE
MISSISSIPPI TO LUVERNE ALABAMA LINE FRIDAY EVENING AND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...LIGHT ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF
SLEET AND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF FREEZING RAIN.

* MAIN IMPACTS...LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE SLICK AND
HAZARDOUS SPOTS OR ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

If your boss lets you I would get out of work a little early to avoid being caught driving in this. Ice accumulating on the road is dangerous with little to no traction for the tires to drive over.

By the way across Central Florida we'll be keeping an eye on the threat for severe weather. Strong upper level westerly winds coupled with some CAPE, CIN, and a slight uptick in the speed of the low level jet, and a warm southwesterly flow off the Gulf creating some instability ahead of the front. The timing might be overnight and into the morning, where Florida traditionally sees its worst severe weather. I'm not expecting anything drastic, but can't rule out some strong straight line winds mixing down towards the surface, an isolated tornado if we get more of a veering wind profile and stronger low level jet, and some lightning strikes. At the very least some much needed rain for us.

18z GFS sounding for Tampa Bay, note the temperature-dew point spread tomorrow afternoon, and dry mid-levels, however notice the lack of any winds at the surface:



Fast forward 12 hours and notice an increase in the winds at the surface to 850 mb. 25-30 knots and there is some CIN and CAPE.





Quoting 175. 19N81W:



We got into this "winter" pattern if you can call it that about 6-8 weeks earlier than we should have......I can only imagine what the place will look like by May.




Then once in May and beyond, same story as previous years : dry and hazy :\ PLUS frequent EL NINO posts from STS :\\
Quoting 212. JeffMasters:

Update on blog errors: The "There was a problem opening this user's Wunder Blog files. Please try again later or check the requested URL." error should be corrected now. This was caused by a subset of WWW servers having a faulty mount point. The "getting rainbowed" error still persists, and may not get solved until mid-month, when a major software migration is completed.

Jeff Masters


major software migration is completed


can you tell us more on that please ??? all so the ignore user when you ignore some one you can not re move it has there names are just stuck so there is a bug with the ignore user when re moveing names
A Very Dynamic CONUS Loop tonight.


Triad region I think will see 3" at most. Appalachians shield the area from moisture during many of these events, also being farther from the coastal low and closer to the drier colder air push.

Also protects the Triad in the spring from severe outbreaks.
Quoting 245. daddyjames:



Is this the one?



Hmm..I don't see anything with your post?

Last week I wasn't able to post a photo from WU without using imgur. So oldnewmex isn't alone with the difficulties :/
Quoting 232. BaltimoreBrian:

LAbonbon, the top word 'hodie' is Latin for 'today'. Not sure what the second word is.

Possibly "nonae", part of the Roman calendar nomenclature: kalends, nones, and ides. Not a clue as to the meaning being imparted in this particular image.
‘Earth On The Edge’: EU Agency Confirms 2016 As Hottest Year On Record
CC: Donald J. Trump.
01/05/2017 06:40 pm ET


In the words of Bob Dylan, “You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.” And you almost certainly didn’t need a thermometer to tell 2016 was a scorcher.

The first global analysis of 2016 climate data is out, confirming what many scientists had predicted: Last year was the hottest on record, surpassing the 2015 record by 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit), the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service announced Thursday.

Earth, the agency concluded, is “on the edge.”

In 2016, the average global surface temperature soared to around 14.8 degrees Celsius (58.6 degrees Fahrenheit), approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times, the earth observation program said.

Copernicus found that temperatures, fueled by climate change and a strong El Nino, peaked in February at about 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times ― a warming benchmark that nearly 200 countries are striving to hold temperatures below as part of last year’s historic Paris climate pact.

In a statement accompanying the findings, Copernicus Director Juan Garcés de Marcilla said the effects of climate change are being felt around the world.

“Land and sea temperatures are rising along with sea levels, while the world’s sea-ice extent, glacier volume and snow cover are decreasing; rainfall patterns are changing and climate-related extremes such as heat waves, floods and droughts are increasing in frequency and intensity for many regions,” Marcilla said. “The future impact of climate change will depend on the effort we make now, in part achieved by better sharing of climate knowledge and information.”

In October, Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, predicted 2016 would go down as the hottest year on record. One month later, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization made the same dire forecast.

In a post Thursday on Twitter, Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary of the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change, called the Copernicus analysis “another wake-up call.”


NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are scheduled to release their own annual global temperature reports later this month. If projections hold, both agencies will confirm 2016 as the third consecutive record-setting year, after 2014 and 2015 both topped the charts for global temperatures.



Despite all-but-unanimous scientific consensus about climate change, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has said he remains skeptical. He has dismissed climate change as “bullshit,” a Chinese “hoax,” and, according to his incoming chief of staff Reince Priebus, “a bunch of bunk.” Trump has promised to pull the U.S. out of the Paris climate agreement and cut all federal spending related to the issue.





Arctic front scooting down the Canadian coast while a subtropical surge moves north southwest of California, and stationary front with jet overhead runs across the state, extending westward to a large low that's been stuck north of Hawaii. This low is something like the more typical Gulf of Alaska low, but displaced south by a cutoff high pressure cell dominating the far northern Pacific.
How much will WU/NWS be off on the low temps for tonight, the forecast was -19f and -17f respectively. If you bet the over you have already won and it is only 8:53pm.

Current conditions -21f with a slight wind providing a feels like temp of -32f. The skies are clear and if the wind gets calm I would not be surprised to be near -30f sometime before the sun rises.
Quoting 256. LAbonbon:


Hmm..I don't see anything with your post?

Last week I wasn't able to post a photo from WU without using imgur. So oldnewmex isn't alone with the difficulties :/

JRnOldsmar is correct oldnewmex failed to link to a specific image.

Here is a wall cloud from my WUphotoes..
It's coded like this but less than & greater than symbols instead of { & } & there is no space in /s/
{img src=http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/ s/Skyepony/1093.jpg width=500}
Did take the s off http.
Quoting 256. LAbonbon:


Hmm..I don't see anything with your post?

Last week I wasn't able to post a photo from WU without using imgur. So oldnewmex isn't alone with the difficulties :/


I have the same problem whenever anyone here posts an image from Twitter. I have to right click on the empty space and view the photo in a new tab. I think it has to do with my settings, as I have the same issue on other sites with Twitter pics posted onto blogs.

I modified oldnewmex's post (that I quoted) to display a photo.

oldnewmex , hope you are not ticked at me for posting a photo :(
One can also google your handle, with "wu photos' in the tag and get this....in images.

Every image ever posted or uploaded here should be available.

patrap, wu photos

About 1,470,000 results (0.84 seconds)

Last upload is Alpha and Beta, 2 of 3 German Shepherd Pups, 37 days young today.

Quoting 257. BayFog:


Possibly "nonae", part of the Roman calendar nomenclature: kalends, nones, and ides. Not a clue as to the meaning being imparted in this particular image.


ninth day.
News here is freaking out about the snow we are going to get tonight.



A classic lesson here -

Low clouds and haze over eastern China

The use of the word "haze" it means industrial air pollution. Can you spot the 2 ?



No luck - using a photo of oldnewmex's (might be the same one daddyjames posted that I can't see?) The address is the same formatting as skyepony's.

btw skyepony - that's an awfully nice photo :)
Quoting 262. daddyjames:



I have the same problem whenever anyone here posts an image from Twitter. I have to right click on the empty space and view the photo in a new tab. I think it has to do with my settings, as I have the same issue on other sites with Twitter pics posted onto blogs.

I modified oldnewmex's post (that I quoted) to display a photo.

oldnewmex , hope you are not ticked at me for posting a photo :(

I don't see any photo on your reply, just the same little photo icon I see on my two failed attempts.
We've come a long way image wise in just 57 years.



Quoting 260. nymore:

How much will WU/NWS be off on the low temps for tonight, the forecast was -19f and -17f respectively. If you bet the over you have already won and it is only 8:53pm.

Current conditions -21f with a slight wind providing a feels like temp of -32f. The skies are clear and if the wind gets calm I would not be surprised to be near -30f sometime before the sun rises.

I'm imagining you ice fishing in this...brrrrr
Quoting 268. oldnewmex:


I don't see any photo on your reply, just the same little photo icon I see on my two failed attempts.


Interesting, I can see the photo.

Maybe issues with the site. Funny thing, I pulled up my photo that I use and this is what I got in the info section.

Sunset
Remove From Favorites [1 Favorite]
Uploaded by: daddyjames
Понедельник Август 8, 2011
Stillwater, OK (Current Weather Conditions)
Caption:
No caption given.
Категории: None

So, what is with the Russian?
Thanks for trying daddyjames, BaltimoreBrian, Patrap, Skypony, and LAbonbon. Nothing works. I give up.
Quoting 268. oldnewmex:


I don't see any photo on your reply, just the same little photo icon I see on my two failed attempts.


Try copying this and posting it after hitting the image icon (this is the photo I tried posting). It is of your dog playing in the snow. Remove the space introduced in the address.

https://icons.wxug.com/data/wximagenew/o/oldnewmex /3-awesome.jpg

@LAbonbon - I can see the photo that you posted.

Edit: Again, all I see is the little icon. I cannot see LAbonbon's photo.
DJ, did Oklahoma TV news forget there are decimals in the lower graphic?
It's really depressing that smog over these years has turned into haze. The fooling with words really matters.
Quoting 275. BaltimoreBrian:

DJ, did Oklahoma TV news forget there are decimals in the lower graphic?


LOL - I hope so. If you are like me, you have to zoom in on the pic to see them :D


Is this the photo? Cool pic, entitled 'No wind today'.

Been trying like heck to get this (or any pic) to show, couldn't do it. Switched from Chrome to Firefox...and voila!

Same thing when trying to post a YouTube video. Can't get it to work in Chrome, but it does in FF.

And daddyjames - right clicking on white space yielded nothing :(
oldnewmex, posting pictures really should work. I've had to wait to get a wunderphoto approved, but I've never had trouble linking a photograph.


Here is the address of my portrait

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/b/ BaltimoreBrian/61.gif

Now change https to http. And make sure there are no spaces! An extraneous space is showing up after /b/ That may be happening to you. Get rid of it.

click on the image button with the mountain on it.

And paste it in Voila!

Quoting 278. LAbonbon:



Is this the photo? Cool pic, entitled 'No wind today'.

Been trying like heck to get this (or any pic) to show, couldn't do it. Switched from Chrome to Firefox...and voila!

Same thing when trying to post a YouTube video. Can't get it to work in Chrome, but it does in FF.

And daddyjames - right clicking on white space yielded nothing :(


Hmm, I use Chrome as well - so not sure what is happening there. Poor oldnewmex - prolly can't see a thing on any of the posts :(
Quoting 278. LAbonbon:



Is this the photo? Cool pic, entitled 'No wind today'.

Been trying like heck to get this (or any pic) to show, couldn't do it. Switched from Chrome to Firefox...and voila!

Same thing when trying to post a YouTube video. Can't get it to work in Chrome, but it does in FF.

And daddyjames - right clicking on white space yielded nothing :(

Okay, this is just weird...and frustrating. I can see it in FF, but not Chrome. Scrolled down in FF, and I see them all.
Quoting 274. oldnewmex:


Edit: Again, all I see is the little icon. I cannot see LAbonbon's photo.


remove the space that was introduced.
Quoting 278. LAbonbon:



Is this the photo? Cool pic, entitled 'No wind today'.

Been trying like heck to get this (or any pic) to show, couldn't do it. Switched from Chrome to Firefox...and voila!

Same thing when trying to post a YouTube video. Can't get it to work in Chrome, but it does in FF.

And daddyjames - right clicking on white space yielded nothing :(

All I see is the icon, but yes, that is the photo I was trying to post here. And YES, I am using chrome. Very interesting.

BaltimoreBrian, I have noticed that your images saying "click image to enlarge" don't enlarge when I click them; never have. Also very interesting.


How about now oldnewmex?
So what did I learn today...hmmm...it's easier (and faster) to drop the photo into imgur and post it that way...

Sorry I couldn't help you, oldnewmex. I gave up the other day too!
Quoting 284. daddyjames:



How about now oldnewmex?

Just an icon.
Quoting 285. LAbonbon:

So what did I learn today...hmmm...it's easier (and faster) to drop the photo into imgur and post it that way...

Sorry I couldn't help you, oldnewmex. I gave up the other day too!


The other alternative is to right click on a post and choose "Inspect". This will provide the code for the blog to the right of the frame, with the picture address. You can select on that, and open the image in another tab.

Lake effect snow is getting deep in Copenhagen, NY. Around 3:30 there is a horse and buggy. It's about time to switch out to the sleigh..


Copenhagen, NY Ridiculous Deep Snow - 1/5/2017
StormChasingVideo
Quoting 286. oldnewmex:


Just an icon.


Well, I can see that your black lab (?) is thoroughly enjoying himself in the snow! Did you throw a snowball?
Quoting 283. oldnewmex:


All I see is the icon, but yes, that is the photo I was trying to post here. And YES, I am using chrome. Very interesting.

BaltimoreBrian, I have noticed that your images saying "click image to enlarge" don't enlarge when I click them; never have. Also very interesting.

I have the same issue with Brian's 'click to enlarge' stuff. And I don't use Firefox regularly because it's even slower with this site, and I still get the old annoying 'script error' problem. Other posters here have no issues with FF though. (*shrugs*)

Quoting 287. daddyjames:



The other alternative is to right click on a post and choose "Inspect". This will provide the code for the blog to the right of the frame, with the picture address. You can select on that, and open the image in another tab.


Yeah, tried that too. No luck.

Quoting 270. LAbonbon:


I'm imagining you ice fishing in this...brrrrr

It is to cold outside for my portable/flip top (clam) fish house but our permanent or wheel houses have gas stoves, couches, beds, satellite tv, stove/oven, refrigerator, bathroom (primitive) ceiling fan, small appliances, running water for cleaning fish.

Whatever you can dream of, It is just a smaller version of your house.

In fact my fish house has the thermostat set at 55 degrees right now so my holes do not freeze while I am not there.
I use firefox. I can see the picture of the dog in the snow in both daddyjames' comment #284 and oldnewmex's comment #286.
Quoting 288. Skyepony:

Lake effect snow is getting deep in Copenhagen, NY. Around 3:30 there is a horse and buggy. It's about time to switch out to the sleigh..


Copenhagen, NY Ridiculous Deep Snow - 1/5/2017
StormChasingVideo


For instance, I cannot see the embed for Skye's video. But I right click click on the post, and this is what I see (in part):

embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/u5cxd8BPPZk" =en_us&version="3"" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="315" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"

I right-click on the web address, and select "open link in new tab" to be able to view it.
barbamz found a way for my 'click to enlarge' comments with photos from twitter to enlarge for just about everyone. I can't remember where she posted that.
Quoting 289. daddyjames:



Well, I can see that your black lab (?) is thoroughly enjoying himself in the snow! Did you throw a snowball?

That's Lucy, my long-eared lab-cross-with-something, catching a shovel full of snow from my deck. Her absolute favorite thing in the world.
Quoting 296. daddyjames:



Icon only.
Okay, I will download firefox in the AM.
Quoting 294. BaltimoreBrian:

barbamz found a way for my 'click to enlarge' comments with photos from twitter to enlarge for just about everyone. I can't remember where she posted that.


Look under embiggen.com
Quoting 293. daddyjames:



For instance, I cannot see the embed for Skye's video. But I right click click on the post, and this is what I see (in part):

embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/u5cxd8BPPZk" =en_us&version="3"" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="560" height="315" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"

I right-click on the web address, and select "open link in new tab" to be able to view it.



Can you see it like this? This may be the newest best way..

Should ask too if a few of you could stop using the "object type" embedding format. It causes the run away italics when quoted.. I'm declaring that a blog-foopah.

{embed height=300 width=600 type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/v/u5cxd8BPPZk"}

Quoting 292. BaltimoreBrian:

I use firefox. I can see the picture of the dog in the snow in both daddyjames' comment #284 and oldnewmex's comment #286.


All I see is the icon. When I right click on the icon, and click "view image" the picture appears. So it's hiding in there.
Quoting 297. oldnewmex:


Icon only.


Yea, I was playing around with the address, seeing if I could "see" the photo using slight modifications. But alas, I only see it as such. Wonder what the issue is?

Hold on, let me see something.
Quoting 300. Skyepony:



Can you see it like this? This may be the newest best way..

Should ask too if a few of you could stop using the "object type" embedding format. It causes the run away italics when quoted.. I'm declaring that a blog-foopah.

{embed height=300 width=600 type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/v/u5cxd8BPPZk"}




Nope, but this is what you did:

embed height="300" width="600" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/v/u5cxd8BPPZk"
Quoting 255. win1gamegiantsplease:

Triad region I think will see 3" at most. Appalachians shield the area from moisture during many of these events, also being farther from the coastal low and closer to the drier colder air push.

Also protects the Triad in the spring from severe outbreaks.


The model runs keep shifting more and more northwest with the transition line and im getting irritated...What I thought would be an all snow event for me(Sanford NC) might be a bunch of sleet and snow and just a mess. :(
One things for sure. Sleet seems to be the one thing that doesn't give a dern about roads treated with salt or not. I've seen road treatments melt freezing rain, turn snow to slush, but an inch of sleet packed down right on top of it. Look out I-95 corridor...
So, Nea's coderizer isn't necessary? That's how I've been doing YT videos (in FF, as it doesn't work for me in Chrome).
oldnewmex. One more try:

Quoting 301. ChiThom:



All I see is the icon. When I right click on the icon, and click "view image" the picture appears. So it's hiding in there.

What browser are you in?
307 - daddyjames - fwiw, I (finally!) see the photo while in Chrome

That's one happy dog :)

Quoting 307. daddyjames:

oldnewmex. One more try:



OK, i see the pic now, also your post 296, but none of the others' attempts. And get this - when I open the blog on my cell phone (i-phone), I can also see LAbonbon's copy of my anemometer image.

As Mr. Spock would say, "Fascinating".
Quoting 309. LAbonbon:

307 - daddyjames - fwiw, I (finally!) see the photo while in Chrome




Ok, so it is an issue with html code. For some browsers(?), you have to close off with "/>" instead of ">".

Here is the picture without the "close off" ( < and > are omitted in the text version):
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew /o/oldnewmex/3-awesome.jpg"


here is the picture with the "close off" backslash (the backslash included as />].
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew /o/oldnewmex/3-awesome.jpg"/


Quoting 310. oldnewmex:


OK, i see the pic now, also your post 296, but none of the others' attempts. And get this - when I open the blog on my cell phone (i-phone), I can also see LAbonbon's copy of my anemometer image.

As Mr. Spock would say, "Fascinating".

Out of curiosity, I checked my phone (Android) - can see all of them except your posts, I think. Fascinating, indeed.
My low here in NE Fla is only supposed to be 34º on Saturday night.

It's gonna be a nail-biter!

Quoting 311. daddyjames:

I see them both.
So confusing - I am about as tech savvy as a cro-magnon.
also- Hi SPLBeater! good to see you again!

(waves hi to everyone else, too- please send warm thoughts to my tomatoes!)
#311 - daddyjames - okay, I get what you're saying. But, if each of those two photos are coded differently, how is it that I can see both of them, whereas I couldn't before?

edit - just saw #314 - looks like oldnewmex and I are on the same page :o
Quoting 313. aquak9:

Scatter jugs of water amongst them, and cover with sheets or blankets. The jugs will help buffer temp changes.
The Low is forming along the coast tonight..





Quoting 314. oldnewmex:


I see them both.
So confusing - I am about as tech savvy as a cro-magnon.
Quoting 316. LAbonbon:

#311 - daddyjames - okay, I get what you're saying. But, if each of those two photos are coded differently, how is it that I can see both of them, whereas I couldn't before?


LOL - Maybe, because the first was not closed off with the backslash, the interpreter catches onto the second one.

Let me do it in reverse.

here is the picture with the "close off" backslash (the backslash included as />].
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew /o/oldnewmex/3-awesome.jpg"/


Here is the picture without the "close off" ( are omitted in the text version):
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew /o/oldnewmex/3-awesome.jpg"
Quoting 308. LAbonbon:


What browser are you in?

I'm using Firefox on an old imac.
Quoting 313. aquak9:

My low here in NE Fla is only supposed to be 34º on Saturday night.

It's gonna be a nail-biter!



You could pick some of them and put in a brown paper bag. They'll rippen. Then of course there is always fried green tomatoes.
This blog is working quite a bit better tonight.
Quoting 291. nymore:


It is to cold outside for my portable/flip top (clam) fish house but our permanent or wheel houses have gas stoves, couches, beds, satellite tv, stove/oven, refrigerator, bathroom (primitive) ceiling fan, small appliances, running water for cleaning fish.

Whatever you can dream of, It is just a smaller version of your house.

In fact my fish house has the thermostat set at 55 degrees right now so my holes do not freeze while I am not there.

Just googled both to see what you're referring to. Pretty cool. The small ones remind me too much of winter camping...no thanks! But the regular house ones look pretty neat.

Feel free to share fish photos with the blog :)
Quoting 263. Patrap:

Let me drop those pups into a 2' deep snowfall and watch the fun. I see you're due for 2 nights of freezing. Better than shop vac-ing the floors, wouldn't you say?
Quoting 315. aquak9:

also- Hi SPLBeater! good to see you again!

(waves hi to everyone else, too- please send warm thoughts to my tomatoes!)


Well that made me smile, someone remembers me :) Hello to you to aquak! About them tomatoes...like someone else said, if you pick them early and leave them on the window inside, they will still ripen for ya.
#320 - daddyjames -still see them both.

I understand why HurricaneHunterJoe used to greet the blog with a 'Good Morning, Class!' on a regular basis.

Ever been a teacher, dj?
Quoting 328. LAbonbon:

#320 - daddyjames -still see them both.

I understand why HurricaneHunterJoe used to greet the blog with a 'Good Morning, Class!' on a regular basis.

Ever been a teacher, dj?


I am teacher. Why you can see them both now - stumps me completely ;).
Quoting 329. daddyjames:



I am teacher. Why you can see them both now - stumps me completely ;).

It shows (you being a teacher, that is) and that's a compliment.
Quoting 330. LAbonbon:


It shows (you being a teacher, that is) and that's a compliment.


LOL - I understood what you were referencing to. Thank you.
Quoting 326. oldnewmex:


Let me drop those pups into a 2' deep snowfall and watch the fun. I see you're due for 2 nights of freezing. Better than shop vac-ing the floors, wouldn't you say?


The Freeze is welcomed after the monsoon of last weekend.

The Puppys, all 3 really are doing well. Im hoping for some flakes to photograph them in. Sleet more likely here.
Quoting 332. Patrap:



The Freeze is welcomed after the monsoon of last weekend.

The Puppys, all 3 really are doing well. Im hoping for some flakes to photograph them in. Sleet more likely here.


Enough snow and you'd have to find them by "feel".
Alrighty, the minutiae that is technology has tuckered me out...and I skipped dinner. So some late night munching for me, then off to the Land of Nod.

Good night, all. Hope you all stay warm, dry, and safe!

Quoting 313. aquak9:

My low here in NE Fla is only supposed to be 34º on Saturday night.

It's gonna be a nail-biter!


With the kind of snowfall being forecast for just a couple of hundred miles north of there, I would not depend on that forecast being accurate. It seems clear to me that the official forecasts for Florida low temps on Saturday night and probably Sunday night as well are unreasonable conservative at this point.
Quoting 333. daddyjames:



Enough snow and you'd have to find them by "feel".


Spent a Winter in Tromso,Serving in NATO with Grothar a long time ago in a Galaxy far, far away once.

Sneaux is of the Devil.






Quoting 334. LAbonbon:

Alrighty, the minutiae that is technology has tuckered me out...and I skipped dinner. So some late night munching for me, then off to the Land of Nod.

Good night, all. Hope you all stay warm, dry, and safe!




I just finished writing code in R and pushing it to my Git Hub account. Every inch of the way was painful.
Quoting 300. Skyepony:



Can you see it like this? This may be the newest best way..

Should ask too if a few of you could stop using the "object type" embedding format. It causes the run away italics when quoted.. I'm declaring that a blog-foopah.

{embed height=300 width=600 type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/v/u5cxd8BPPZk"}

embed height="300" width="600" type="text/html" src="https://www.youtube.com/v/u5cxd8BPPZk">
I cannot see it, but your embed code auto-downloads a 5KB text ed file to my computer every time I look at a page where you have embedded a youtube in this manner.

Download notification file on my browser page


Download file in my computer files

Should ask if you could stop using this... Can't be good, automatic downloads like that going onto wu members personal computers. Add: Please note the matching IDs.
Quoting 336. Patrap:



Spent a Winter in Tromso,Serving in NATO with Grothar a long time ago in a Galaxy far, far away once.

Sneaux is of the Devil.









Yeah, as a SoFla boy - i feel the same.
Quoting 338. Barefootontherocks:

I cannot see it, but your embed code auto-downloads a 5KB text ed file to my computer every time I look at a page where you have embedded a youtube in this manner.

Download notification file on my browser page

Dowload file in my computer files

Should ask if you could stop using this... Can't be good, automatic downloads like that going onto wu members personal computers. Add: Please note the matching IDs.


what is in the text file? You are using chrome?
HI dj,
No, I do not use Chrome. I don't know what is in the files. I do not open them. I clear and delete them.
There are 8 10 now. Every time I view this page I get another one.
Quoting 341. Barefootontherocks:

HI dj,
No, I do not use Chrome. I don't know what is in the files. I do not open them. I clear and delete them.


I don't get the same thing when I access it. Or are you not even clicking on it?
What you are seeing is the last part of the address, that for some reason is being interpreted as a text ed file.

huh, that doe not happen to me. And we are cut fom the same cloth as far as how things are set up.

It may be something with your particular browser. Some allow you to select to not download anything automatically, do you know if that is set?
your browser just has no idea what to do with html5 videos and stores them as texted documents.. :O
Quoting 345. HadesGodWyvern:

your browser just has no idea what to do with html5 videos and stores them as texted documents.. :O


It apparently is doing it just from the embed code. Is that possible?

Look at the southern band grow.
Quoting 328. LAbonbon:

#320 - daddyjames -still see them both.

I understand why HurricaneHunterJoe used to greet the blog with a 'Good Morning, Class!' on a regular basis.

Ever been a teacher, dj?


I think Joe may remember an old comedy record from years ago in which that line was used. if Joe is on, he can tell us if I am right. :)
Quoting 345. HadesGodWyvern:

your browser just has no idea what to do with html5 videos and stores them as texted documents.. :O
My browser knows exactly what to do with html5 vids. I object to anything that auto-downloads to my computer. I don't see the humor you apparently see.

dj,
You can see everything I can see in the second graphic I posted. The file has no .___ extension.
Some allow you to select to not download anything automatically, do you know if that is set? My browser is not set to auto-download anything. The only time this happens is with those embeds of Skye's. I had noticed the files numerous times but didn't figure it out till she posted a video on my blog.
Quoting 290. LAbonbon:


I have the same issue with Brian's 'click to enlarge' stuff. And I don't use Firefox regularly because it's even slower with this site, and I still get the old annoying 'script error' problem. Other posters here have no issues with FF though. (*shrugs*)


Yeah, tried that too. No luck.




I can see GT's winter weather threat, Brian's voila rain accumulation, and Skye's wall cloud and Copenhagen, and everything Pat puts out. Everyone else is white squares.

Firefox works fine for me on 50 comments for a few months, then is scripts out. So I switch to Chrome and do the same for a few months. Repeat.
Quoting 347. Andrebrooks:


Look at the southern band grow.


Yeah, think we may get a little more than the dusting they were forecasting. Right now the northern band is just north of me.
uggggh that just looks cold, I don't care who ya are

Quoting 337. Qazulight:



I just finished writing code in R and pushing it to my Git Hub account. Every inch of the way was painful.


R? Man is that ever a terrible language. I avoid unless it is absolutely required by a customer/project or there is absolutely no other way to do something.

Almost seems like it be easier to reverse engineer perl code written by someone who hates whitespace and despises his job.
Quoting 349. Barefootontherocks:

My browser knows exactly what to do with html5 vids. I object to anything that auto-downloads to my computer. I don't see the humor you apparently see.

dj,
You can see everything I can see in the second graphic I posted. The file has no .___ extension.
Some allow you to select to not download anything automatically, do you know if that is set? My browser is not set to auto-download anything. The only time this happens is with those embeds of Skye's. I had noticed the files numerous times but didn't figure it out till she posted a video on my blog.


Do you have any program "Text Ed" (a unicode editor for Windows?).
Evening all. I'm in need of some help. Does anyone have access to the snow total map for the ECMWF? If so, can you tell me if it leans to the more western NAM or the more Eastern GFS? I'm looking at somewhere between Winston-Salem, Roanoke Rapids, and Rocky Mount?

Once a junkie, always a junkie....
Quoting 346. daddyjames:



It apparently is doing it just from the embed code. Is that possible?


It's likely storing the code.
Quoting 311. daddyjames:



Ok, so it is an issue with html code. For some browsers(?), you have to close off with "/>" instead of ">".

Here is the picture without the "close off" ( are omitted in the text version):
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew /o/oldnewmex/3-awesome.jpg"


here is the picture with the "close off" backslash (the backslash included as />].
img src="http://icons.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew /o/oldnewmex/3-awesome.jpg"/





Strict HTML/XML vs. loose. Always close tags. Any HTML5 compliant browser will work in that case. Improperly closed tags and how they are handled are vendor specific, so no guarantees.
I don't see the humor you apparently see.



that's my shock emote at the end of my statement
Quoting 356. HadesGodWyvern:



It's likely storing the code.


Yeah, from the screenshot her computer is interpreting it as a "TextEd document". The only thing I am aware of is a Unicode editor called RJ TextEd, but not sure it uses that as an extension/identifier.
Okay, you guys. Sorry, HGW, I did not realize the shock emote. Eh.

Snow tonight is dry and sparkly. You getting snow yet, dj?
I don't have any software called text ed, and I do not use windows OS.
Quoting 220. LAbonbon:

More river flooding - these are forecasted stage levels. Question for anyone - what specifically does 'danger level' mean in regards to flood stage?



(Source)

Looks like they might be opening up the Yolo Bypass soon, to handle the overflow. SF Bay will be taking in a whole lot of fresh water, albeit somewhat muddier. And hopefully, the giant reservoirs Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville will finally approach more normal levels.
Funny how, when you refresh the rainbow page, you land here. lpl

Thanks for trying to help with the autodownload puzzle, dj and HGW. Just stoked the woodstove for overnight. Time to hit the hay.
Quoting 360. Barefootontherocks:

Okay, you guys. Sorry, HGW, I did not realize the shock emote. Eh.

Snow tonight is dry and sparkly. You getting snow yet, dj?
I don't have any software called text ed, and I do not use windows OS.


Snow: very small flakes just appearing, but looking at the radar, it should pick up soon.

Re the download: I would contact support for whatever browser you are using, and ask them. There has to be a setting or an extension that you could install that would prevent what is happening. At the very least, they would be happy at hearing that they may have an issue.
Quoting 315. aquak9:

also- Hi SPLBeater! good to see you again!

(waves hi to everyone else, too- please send warm thoughts to my tomatoes!)


Can I send hungry thoughts?
Quoting 329. daddyjames:



I am teacher. Why you can see them both now - stumps me completely ;).


Now I know which blogger puts me to sleep. :P

Coating of snow on the ground after our quick shot came through. Kudos to a successful forecast by NWS several days out.
Fried green tomatoes with chives. Pick'em! Before its to late!
Quoting 366. Astrometeor:



Now I know which blogger puts me to sleep. :P

Coating of snow on the ground after our quick shot came through. Kudos to a successful forecast by NWS several days out.


LOL - your eyes are getting heavy.
369. MahFL
Th current temp map looks like some evil eyes looking toward the SE :

Looks like I only have to deal with the cold weather for few days then it's back to shorts and short sleeves.
Quoting 368. daddyjames:



LOL - your eyes are getting heavy.


Yea, you're right. I'm hitting the hay. Then I'm punching the hay, before hitting it again.

Night dj, blog.
Oh look, another winter storm that looked potentially significant for coastal regions early before shifting northwest closer in time, leaving the aforementioned areas with a mainly rain (ending as sleet/snow) event. Never seen that before, no sir...
Good morning from currently bright but frozen Germany!


(Click to enlarge). View from Zugspitze, Germany's highest mountain, with fresh snow. Source foto-webcam.eu. Here the weather data from Zugspitze: Link with -26C (-15F) this morning.

Meanwhile "a bit" further south:
Huge Antarctic iceberg poised to break away
BBC, By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, 8 hours ago
An iceberg expected to be one of the 10 largest ever recorded is ready to break away from Antarctica, scientists say.
A long-running rift in the Larsen C ice shelf grew suddenly in December and now just 20km of ice is keeping the 5,000 sq km piece from floating away.
Larsen C is the most northern major ice shelf in Antarctica. ...


Quoting 355. StormJunkie:

Evening all. I'm in need of some help. Does anyone have access to the snow total map for the ECMWF? If so, can you tell me if it leans to the more western NAM or the more Eastern GFS? I'm looking at somewhere between Winston-Salem, Roanoke Rapids, and Rocky Mount?

Leaning towards Roanoke Rapids...

Once a junkie, always a junkie....


Still looking to finalize this. No reservation yet in Winstom-Salem. Have reservations in Roanoke Rapids & Rocky Mount. Will need to make a final call around noon. Anyone know which one the ECMWF say?
Quoting 335. FLWaterFront:

With the kind of snowfall being forecast for just a couple of hundred miles north of there, I would not depend on that forecast being accurate. It seems clear to me that the official forecasts for Florida low temps on Saturday night and probably Sunday night as well are unreasonable conservative at this point.


I would build a tarp tent over your tomato plants, and then keep them warm with a old school (non-LED) floodlamp inside. I have had that work in the past. It looks like we will be in for a couple borderline nights.
Bummer, looking like major snow event for Florence, SC isn't going to happen. Cold air not firmly entrenched prior to arrival of storm. Too bad. Not often do we see all the ingredients coming together. Just shows how special a 1973 type storm really is. Looks like minimal disruptions here and a chance to get to the coast Saturday and get a few waves tucked in under a south-facing beach.

The 70's and 80's had some very cold winters.

Well, plenty of winter left.
Quoting 377. HaoleboySurfEC:

Bummer, looking like major snow event for Florence, SC isn't going to happen. Cold air not firmly entrenched prior to arrival of storm. Too bad. Not often do we see all the ingredients coming together. Just shows how special a 1973 type storm really is. Looks like minimal disruptions here and a chance to get to the coast Saturday and get a few waves tucked in under a south-facing beach.

The 70's and 80's had some very cold winters.

Well, plenty of winter left.


I'll wave as I drive by HBS.
This could be of interest concerning the Antarctic ice.

Link
This was quick:
London breaches annual air pollution limit for 2017 in just five days
Brixton Road in Lambeth has already broken legal limits for toxic air for the entire year, with many other sites across the capital set to follow
Guardian, Friday 6 January 2017 10.03 GMT
London has breached its annual air pollution limits just five days into 2017, a "shameful reminder of the severity of London's air pollution", according to campaigners.
By law, hourly levels of toxic nitrogen dioxide must not be more than 200 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m3) more than 18 times in a whole year, but late on Thursday this limit was broken on Brixton Road in Lambeth.
Many other sites across the capital will go on to break the annual limit and Putney High Street exceeded the hourly limit over 1,200 times in 2016. Oxford Street, Kings Road in Chelsea and the Strand are other known pollution hotspots. ...

More details see link above.
Quoting 377. HaoleboySurfEC:

Bummer, looking like major snow event for Florence, SC isn't going to happen. Cold air not firmly entrenched prior to arrival of storm. Too bad. Not often do we see all the ingredients coming together. Just shows how special a 1973 type storm really is. Looks like minimal disruptions here and a chance to get to the coast Saturday and get a few waves tucked in under a south-facing beach.

The 70's and 80's had some very cold winters.

Well, plenty of winter left.


No doubt. Bummed here as well. Our NWS keeps saying flurries still possible on the backside for a cpl of hours, with sleet mixed in here in the Charleston area, but no actual "snow event." Nothing worse than being just a few degrees too "warm" and having a cold, raw rain.
Quoting 338. Barefootontherocks:

Should ask if you could stop using this... Can't be good, automatic downloads like that going onto wu members personal computers. Add: Please note the matching IDs.

It seems like a very you specific problem though, like something with your set up auto-downloading that for you. Nothing downloads on mine and no one else can seem to reproduce it.

Guess it's not really much of an advantage over the other way...others seem to have some block or filter on that doesn't allow them to see either way.
Cold air not as deep and cold as forecasted a few days ago. Also storm ahead of schedule and possibly too close to coast. Overnight lows Sunday into Monday were being forecasted as 12F just 24 hours ago. Now 19F is the forecasted low. Close but no cigar. At least freezing pipes may be a little less of a concern.


Quoting 381. nash36:



No doubt. Bummed here as well. Our NWS keeps saying flurries still possible on the backside for a cpl of hours, with sleet mixed in here in the Charleston area, but no actual "snow event." Nothing worse than being just a few degrees too "warm" and having a cold, raw rain.
Good morning, WU. Cold this morning, 0F. NWS tweeted "Temperature fell to -5F at SLC International Airport just before 1 a.m., coldest reading at SLC since February 13, 2004! " Headed to a high in the teens today, so quite chilly.

Excerpt from the AFD:

Synopsis...high pressure will settle into the region today before
a warmer and more active pattern develops for the weekend and into
early next week. Quite the unsettled period ahead.

&&

Short term (through 00z tuesday)...morning water vapor and 500 mb
analysis are beginning to show a net rising of heights from the
west as the trough that impacted the area over the last 24 hours
departs downstream and mid level riding builds upstream. In wake
a very cold airmass is in place yielding the coldest temps in
quite some time (and in some regards ever on this date). Some
examples of overnight lows thus far...kslc -5f...klgu -25f...Peter
Sinks -53f...Randolph -37f...kcdc -8f. Quite notable to say the
least.


Link to full AFD

Note - Peter Sinks is a natural sinkhole in northern Utah that is one of the coldest places in the contiguous United States. (Peter Sinks - Wiki)
Good morning, a clear and beautiful morning here 4F with the wind finally subsiding. This is our last day with the grandkids until the summer, pity there was no snow, we had a foot of it before Christmas and it was all gone by the 26th the day before we picked them up, at least was cold enough for the pond to allow hockey and skating.

The GFS has been hinting of a significant freezing rain event in the long range.





The coming storm has schools, government offices and businesses closed throughout much of Arkansas and Oklahoma. TX panhandle is expecting 5-7inches.

Nasa GEOS-5 model...Looks like it's leaning a little more severe again. Maybe some heavy sleet too for parts of more southern Georgia & South Carolina. May see a little more snow than forecast in some of the more northern areas. Overall Precipitation is looking heavier with maybe the cold (freezing is little blue lines) being a little farther north.





Quoting 338. Barefootontherocks:

I cannot see it, but your embed code auto-downloads a 5KB text ed file to my computer every time I look at a page where you have embedded a youtube in this manner.

Download notification file on my browser page


Download file in my computer files

Should ask if you could stop using this... Can't be good, automatic downloads like that going onto wu members personal computers. Add: Please note the matching IDs.


Have you checked your Flash Player settings? Under Storage there is an option to block sites from storing data on your computer.
Good Morning Folks; not much to say for the folks in the Southern tier of the US this evening and into the weekend with the exception of being very careful driving, or staying off the roads altogether, if we see icing and snow in places in the deep South where you are not used to driving in these conditions:




Quoting 385. gr8lakebreeze:

Good morning, a clear and beautiful morning here 4F with the wind finally subsiding. This is our last day with the grandkids until the summer, pity there was no snow, we had a foot of it before Christmas and it was all gone by the 26th the day before we picked them up, at least was cold enough for the pond to allow hockey and skating.

The GFS has been hinting of a significant freezing rain event in the long range.







Oi, that is some anticyclone in a strange place, moving strangely quick too.
Oh, I thought that first photo was downtown Atlanta



Quoting 374. barbamz:

Good morning from currently bright but frozen Germany!


(Click to enlarge). View from Zugspitze, Germany's highest mountain, with fresh snow. Source foto-webcam.eu. Here the weather data from Zugspitze: Link with -26C (-15F) this morning.

Meanwhile "a bit" further south:
Huge Antarctic iceberg poised to break away
BBC, By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, 8 hours ago
An iceberg expected to be one of the 10 largest ever recorded is ready to break away from Antarctica, scientists say.
A long-running rift in the Larsen C ice shelf grew suddenly in December and now just 20km of ice is keeping the 5,000 sq km piece from floating away.
Larsen C is the most northern major ice shelf in Antarctica. ...



They told us they would cancel school at -25....but they didn't. At least the "feels like" temp. is warmer than the actual air temp.

Wilson Wyoming
Elev 6222 ft 43.54 °N, 110.83 °W | Updated 16 min ago
Partly Cloudy
-30.1 °F
Feels Like -30 °F
Saw from Mike Turk the SAB Tropical Team Lead about the possible discontinuation of the SAB Tropical Cyclone Fixes (including dvorak).

The decision has been delayed. A meeting to brief the OSPO director on user feedback is scheduled for 19 January. If the proposed retirement proceeds, the earliest it could be voted on by the review board is Feb 15.


Yeah Baby'




"Note - Peter Sinks is a natural sinkhole in northern Utah that is one of the coldest places in the contiguous United States."

I was in Utah in the late 1980s when a Siberian Express came in. After the snow cleared we drove from Green River to Cedar City.

It got down to -25 at Green River and en route we went through the small town of Loa which is located in a big bowl between mountain ranges which according to the rangers in nearby Capital Reef National Park hit -37 that morning!

It was -20 that night in Cedar City and the heat in our motel room was so inadequate that we slept in our ski clothes!

But our rental car that we got in Vegas started every morning. Good ole Chevy Celebrity!

When we got back to Vegas half the palm trees look like they had been severely damaged by the cold.
Bottomed out here in Fallon this morning at -8.1. The folks who moved here from the northern tier states are all puzzled why nobody bothered to shovel the snow, and the long time locals are all "Well, usually it melts by noon." Fallon's official tally was 4", we got more like 6ish here with lots of drifts for the kids to jump in. I haven't felt squeaky snow underfoot since the 1970's.

Never got above freezing yesterday. That was a real snow-bomb for our area. My little living space, the floor was so cold the snow on my boots never melted, the wet leather froze and walking around was like walking in ski boots. Kinda weird.

Watches & WarningsWind Chill Advisory, Freeze WarningIssued: 9:49 AM CST Jan. 6, 2017 – National Weather Service

... Wind Chill Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 10 am
CST Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a Wind
Chill Advisory... which is in effect from 9 PM this evening to
10 am CST Saturday.

* Wind chill values... minimum values of 11 to 16 degrees around
sunrise.

* Duration... 6 to 10 hours

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds
will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in
frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.
If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.





351 am CST Fri Jan 6 2017

... Freeze warning in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am CST
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a freeze
warning... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 9 am CST
Saturday.

* Temperature... 27 to 30 degrees.

* Duration... 7 to 9 hours.

* Impacts... pipes... pets... plants and persons could become
vulnerable if outdoors.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A freeze warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.






Small Craft AdvisoryIssued: 10:04 AM CST Jan. 6, 2017 – National Weather Service


... Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6 am CST Sunday...

* winds... north 20 to 30 knots with occasional gusts 35 knots or
higher.

* Waves/seas... 4 to 6 feet

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 20 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners... especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.



TD

Incredible totals.



Well, the kids are happy as they have no school today (and I'll be babysitting in a little bit).

We got a bit more than was originally forecast, 1.4 inches in my neck of the woods.
Soo Cal latest little storm rainfall totals ..............total at mi casa was .20

Link
Quoting 400. Grothar:

Incredible totals.




Is that estimated precipitation (in rain?). Then those 20's in California are crazy - good for them, but maybe too much too quick?
35F and drizzling rain here in my part of Houston
I want to see some snow!
Quoting 400. Grothar:

Incredible totals.




Yes.......it's gonna be bad if the snow level is too high........all previous snow below the level with this next storm will melt and be heading downhill!
Quoting 404. justmehouston:

35F and drizzling rain here in my part of Houston
I want to see some snow!


Its 15F with a wind chill of 5F, come on up!
Cold Monday in the SE





TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE
FROM MONTANA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT GENERALLY
NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR WEST INTO TEXAS WHERE RECORD
HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
THE EAST ONCE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE COLD (PERHAPS 20-30F BELOW AVERAGE IN
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY MORNING ASSUMING CLEAR/CALM
CONDITIONS ATOP RECENT SNOWFALL WHICH HAS YET TO OCCUR).
MODERATION OCCURS THEREAFTER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING INTO THE
60S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS MID-ATLANTIC LATER NEXT WEEK.

Link
For NOLA and surrounding Parishes tonight,


Get what you need now for this extended freeze tonight. Pipes,People,Pets all must be protected.


Quoting 407. nrtiwlnvragn:

Cold Monday in the SE





aqua - you better take care of those tomatoes!
Hi ya'll- hi DJ! Here's a pic from TODAY- I am gonna water deep and cover.

Looks like the first "river" will raise snow levels to 9,000-10,000 feet and then lower with the second "river" next week to 5,000-7,000 feet. From NWS Reno:


Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Reno NV
425 AM PST Fri Jan 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold and dry air today will transition to a strong atmospheric
river event this weekend. Precipitation will start as snow in
most areas Saturday morning, before changing to heavy rain for the
rest of the weekend. Some valleys could see a period of freezing
rain before the changeover. Flooding looks probable for mainstem
rivers, creeks, and streams this weekend into early next week.
Another atmospheric river is looking likely for the middle of next
week with a couple of colder storms for the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Very cold air mass will prevail over the region today with dry
conditions. The start of the atmospheric river event for this
weekend is anticipated by early Saturday morning. Warm ADVECTION
aloft will bring a rapid increase in moisture, while the presence
of cold air will likely begin most precipitation as snow during
the morning hours. The overrunning moisture looks sufficient to
produce some accumulating snow over the eastern Sierra/northeast
CA and portions of western NV, especially from Reno-Carson
northward to the Oregon border. We have issued Winter Weather
Advisories over these areas, with another round of slick travel
conditions before the attention turns to heavy rainfall and
flooding potential.

While warmer air is likely to spread quickly over the eastern
Sierra and far western NV by Saturday afternoon or evening, some
of the colder valleys mainly from Susanville-Lovelock northward
could remain below freezing, setting up the potential for a period
of freezing rain. Some of the guidance has been tenacious in
keeping temps near or below freezing through much of Saturday
night in areas such as Lovelock before the warmer air finally
breaks through. Other guidance sources indicate enough strength in
the warm push to scour out the cold air more quickly and limit
the duration of freezing rain. We will mention this freezing rain
potential in our advisory statement for now, which could lead to
very dangerous travel conditions on portions of I-80 north and
east of Lovelock.

By Saturday evening through the rest of the weekend, the warm air
will push snow levels much higher, rising above 8000 feet north
of I-80, to 9000-9500 feet from Tahoe-Reno eastward, and
9500-10000 feet for Mono-Mineral Counties. Snow levels begin to
drop again on Monday, lowering to near lake level during the
afternoon. Several feet of heavy snow with high moisture content
will fall in these higher mountain areas. As for the intense rain
and likely flooding event, see the hydrology section below for
additional details. MJD

.LONG TERM...Tuesday to Saturday Jan 14...

* Atmospheric River with feet of snow possible in the Sierra Jan
10-12.
* Minor nuisance flooding may still be an issue below 6000 feet.

Persistent blocking pattern over Alaska/Bering Sea/northern Pacific
will keep the cold TROUGH off the British Columbia Coast and the jet
directed at the Sierra. This will allow the moist onshore FLOW to
continue through most of next week. Result will be periods of light
to moderate snow in the Sierra, with bursts of rain/snow and gusty
winds for the Highway 395 corridor in CA and western Nevada.

There is an atmospheric river forecast to impact the Sierra and
western Nevada on late Tuesday to early Thursday. Latest simulations
keep the snow level range at 5000-7000 feet, so thinking is a decent
shot at a big snow event for the Sierra with periods of rain/snow
across western Nevada. Liquid amounts with the AR may reach 2-4
inches in the Sierra, yielding roughly 2-4 feet in the higher
elevations. Despite the lower snow levels, minor nuisance flooding
may still be an issue for elevations below 6000 feet and along the
Sierra FRONT due to saturated soils with up to an inch of rain
possible.
BTW.........California has 42 mountains with elevations above 10,000 feet, the vast majority in the Sierra's........so even with the warm "river" moisture coming in, bookoo snow will still fall in the Sierra Nevada Range and even more next week with a lower snow level.....So hopefully if we get a big melt to start out, it will be replenished next week. And all the lower elevation rain can only help with storage lakes and underground aquifers. Just hope Northern/Central California don't have severe flooding issues. Good luck my Northern brothers and sisters!
It was 2 weeks today I left San Francisco after the AGU conference and meeting the wu crew at wu Headquarters there.

Twas a nice week out there and the rain was a perfect fit as I exited the wu building and popped open my new Swag wu Umbrella.

They were absolutely welcoming and gracious. Thanks again to Dr. Masters and all the wu staff for a wunderful day there.

Patrick

Quoting 392. VAbeachhurricanes:




A foot in Miss-Bama? I'd love to see that.
the sup'er paddling from Morrocco to Fl. has thrown over his sea anchor and is now enduring a storm in between the Canary Is. and Cape Verde. on the atlantic nhc broad map of the S atlantic the low pressure does indeed look vibrant. if he can make it just west of the CV islands the favorable trade wind flow should make it easier for him good luck chris
This is one plant- and the seeds came from the back of a Kashi Granola Bar package. It said they were "Rutgers" (which is not really specific) so I call them Kashi Rutgers.

I promise not to ever try to grow tomatoes again over the winter. It's just too nerve-wracking.

Here it comes (the cold blast) pushing across the South tier: not bad for me at all in North Florida considering the lows in the high single digits and teens in Mass just over a week ago that I experienced over 7 days...................Bring it on.






JeffMasters has created a new entry.
A few errant clouds and about 30°F here in coastal Humboldt this morning. We're getting ready to batten down the hatches ahead of a significant atmospheric river event scheduled to begin impacting the area this evening. Every time I check the forecast they continue to up the precipitation amounts so at this point we'll just have to wait and see! My rain gauge is sitting at 2.69" for the month so far.
~
Quoting 414. win1gamegiantsplease:



A foot in Miss-Bama? I'd love to see that.

That model is using 10:1 snow ratio's. That is not going to happen that far south with only limited cold air available. Probably looking at something closer to 6 or 7:1 snow ratios for that region. Once you get closer to Virginia snow ratios will be higher closer to 10:1. Also don't think the model takes into account ground temperatures as well. So those totals should be cut in half at the least for Bama and Miss. And it's just one model. But something to watch for sure. North Carolina/Virginia looking like they may take the brunt of this system. Don't know if cold air will make it in time for Atlanta and points south and west.
Quoting 387. nrtiwlnvragn:



Have you checked your Flash Player settings? Under Storage there is an option to block sites from storing data on your computer.
nrt,
Thanks for trying to explain this.

I dumped Flash player more than a year ago due to pop up ads I saw here telling me to get the newest version - when I already had the newest version. The ad supplied a convenient link which I did not click. I notified help but the person who answered did not express concern, so I just removed the Flash software from my computer.
Quoting 416. aquak9:

This is one plant- and the seeds came from the back of a Kashi Granola Bar package. It said they were "Rutgers" (which is not really specific) so I call them Kashi Rutgers.

I promise not to ever try to grow tomatoes again over the winter. It's just too nerve-wracking.




Can't handle living life on the edge?
Interesting "other" take on this...

"Strong December Cooling Leads to 2016 Being Statistically Indistinguishable from 1998"
Link
Quoting 412. HurricaneHunterJoe:

BTW.........California has 42 mountains with elevations above 10,000 feet, the vast majority in the Sierra's........so even with the warm "river" moisture coming in, bookoo snow will still fall in the Sierra Nevada Range and even more next week with a lower snow level.....So hopefully if we get a big melt to start out, it will be replenished next week. And all the lower elevation can only help with storage lakes and underground aquifers. Just hope Northern/Central California don't have severe flooding issues. Good luck my Northern brothers and sisters!




Hey, Joe. When you say, "Good Morning, class", is that from a famous comedy record from years back????
Where did this come from...Last run had almost nuthin...

Quoting 381. nash36:



No doubt. Bummed here as well. Our NWS keeps saying flurries still possible on the backside for a cpl of hours, with sleet mixed in here in the Charleston area, but no actual "snow event." Nothing worse than being just a few degrees too "warm" and having a cold, raw rain.


I vehemently disagree. Few types of weather are more refreshing than 40-50F temps and rain. The best part about rain is it never has to shoveled (High precipitation events excluded of course)...